Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 313 views

    CA-50 Tulchin Research For Ammar Campa-Najjar (Aug. 2018)

    Uploaded by

    Daily Kos Elections
    CA-50 Tulchin Research for Ammar Campa-Najjar (Aug. 2018)

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    CA-50 Tulchin Research For Ammar Campa-Najjar (Aug. 2018)

    Uploaded by

    Daily Kos Elections
    313 views1 page
    CA-50 Tulchin Research for Ammar Campa-Najjar (Aug. 2018)

    Original Title

    CA-50 Tulchin Research for Ammar Campa-Najjar (Aug. 2018)

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    CA-50 Tulchin Research for Ammar Campa-Najjar (Aug. 2018)

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    313 views1 page

    CA-50 Tulchin Research For Ammar Campa-Najjar (Aug. 2018)

    Uploaded by

    Daily Kos Elections
    CA-50 Tulchin Research for Ammar Campa-Najjar (Aug. 2018)

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 1

    August 31, 2018

    To: Interested Parties


    From: Ben Tulchin and Ben Krompak; Tulchin Research
    Re: Poll Finds Tied Race in California’s 50th Congressional District Following
    Criminal Indictment of Duncan Hunter

    A Tulchin Research poll conducted from August 27-30, 2018 finds a dead heat in the race in
    California’s 50th Congressional District, in the aftermath of incumbent Republican Duncan
    Hunter’s criminal indictment on charges of fraudulently spending $250,000 in campaign funds on
    personal expenses. That the race is now tied in this historically Republican district suggests that
    Hunter is paying a significant political price for his alleged corruption, even as he denies personal
    culpability and asserts that his wife is solely responsible for any misspending.

    Our polling finds that Hunter and his challenger, local business owner Ammar Campa-Najjar, are
    each attracting 46 percent of the vote, while 8 percent of voters remain undecided.

    California’s 50th Congressional District


    “If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you
    vote if the candidates were…?”

    Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)


    46%
    Local business owner
    Duncan Hunter (R)
    46%
    U.S. Representative

    Undecided 8%

    The poll additionally finds that news of the Hunter indictment has broken through with the
    electorate and that Hunter is now viewed negatively by a plurality of voters. Nearly 9 in 10 voters
    (87%) report that they have heard, read, or seen information about the indictment, with a majority
    (55%) stating they have heard “a lot” about the indictment. Hunter is viewed unfavorably by 45
    percent of voters while just over one-third of voters (36 percent) view him favorably. This reflects
    a net 16-point negative shift for Hunter since our poll conducted July 17-23, 2018, which found
    Hunter viewed favorably by a 7-point margin (47% favorable to 40% unfavorable).

    In conclusion, our poll finds Ammar Campa-Najjar has closed the gap with Duncan Hunter and is
    in a strong position to win the election. In a relatively favorable political environment for
    Democrats, Hunter’s indictment has already put this seat into play, presenting Democrats with a
    once-in-a-generation opportunity to turn the district from red-to-blue.

    Survey Methodology: From August 27-30, 2018, Tulchin Research conducted a survey among
    400 likely November 2018 voters in California’s 50th Congressional District. The margin of error
    for the survey is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

    220 Sansome Street, Suite 1360 • San Francisco, CA 94104 • (415) 576-1072

    You might also like