Bayes Estimator of One Parameter Gamma Distribution Under Quadratic and LINEX Loss Function Wael Abdul Lateef Jasim
Bayes Estimator of One Parameter Gamma Distribution Under Quadratic and LINEX Loss Function Wael Abdul Lateef Jasim
p.p. [13-28]
ABSTRACT
In this paper we derive Bayes' estimator for the Scale
parameter θ in Gamma distribution when α is known and equal
2, i.e. Χ 1 , Χ 2 ,..., Χ n ~ Ga (2, θ) , we take α = 2 to estimate one
parameter of gamma distribution which is θ (Scale parameter),
where gamma distribution is considered as an important model of
the life time models . These estimators are obtained depending on
squared error and LINEX loss function , Then comparisons of
risks for θ under squared and LINEX loss function have been
made . Simulation study is given to illustrate that the proposed
estimators θ̂ LB is preferable to θ̂ SB for the sample sizes n = 10,20,30
from above distribution with parameters (α = 2, θ = 1) and for all
values of " a " (a = ±0.5,±1,±2) .
ﻤﻘﺩﺭ ﺒﻴﺯ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻜﺎﻤﺎ ﺘﺤﺕ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ
ﻟﻨﻜﺱ
ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﻠﺹ
α ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻜﺎﻤﺎ ﻋﻨـﺩﻤﺎθ ﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﺸﺘﻘﺎﻕ ﻤﻘﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﻴﺯ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ
α = 2 ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺨـﺫ، Χ 1 , Χ 2 ,..., Χ n ~ Ga (2, θ) ( ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ2) ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ
ﺍﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻭﺯﻴـﻊ ﻜﺎﻤـﺎ،( )ﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱθ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻜﺎﻤﺎ ﻭﻫﻲ
ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤـﺎﺩ. ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﺎ ﻤﻬﻤﺎ ﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﺎﺓ
ﺜﻡ ﺘﻤﺕ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ، ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻟﻨﻜﺱ
ﻟﻘﺩ ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺤﺎﻜﺎﺓ ﻭﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ. ﺘﺤﺕ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻟﻨﻜﺱ
n = 10,20,30 وﻻﺣﺠ ﺎم ﻋﻴﻨ ﺎتθ̂ SB ه ﻲ ﻤﻔﻀﻠﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰθ̂ LB ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺤﺔ
. (a = ±0.5,±1,±2) " a " ( وﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻗﻴﻢα = 2, θ = 1) ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﻳﻊ اﻋﻼﻩ وﺑﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎت
*
Assistance Lecturerlechnical Institute/ Mosul
Received:18/2 /2009 ____________________Accepted: 6 /9 / 2009
[14] ________________Bayes Estimator of one parameter...
1- Introduction
In Reliability studies the models which are used in life
testing include the Exponential, Gamma, Lognormal,
…distributions. If the failure is mainly due to aging or wearing
out process, then it's reasonable in many applications to choose
one of the above mentioned distributions (see Chhikara & Folks
(1977), Sinha & Kale (1980), Von Alven (ed.)(1964), Sherif &
Smith (1980) .
The Gamma distribution is the most widely used in life
experiment , it has probability density function (p.d.f) with two
parameters α and θ is :
x α −1 x
f ( x ; α , θ) = α
exp(− ) x ≥ 0 , α, θ ≥ 0
θ Γα θ
In this paper we will use the gamma distribution with one
parameter θ where α is known and equal 2, so it has probability
density function (p.d.f) as follows :
x x
f ( x; θ) = exp(− ) x ≥ 0 , α, θ ≥ 0 (1)
θ 2
θ
And the distribution function of X is :
t t
x x t t t
F( t ) = ∫ f ( x; θ)dx = ∫ exp(− )dx = 1 − exp(− ) − exp(− ) t≥0
0 0 θ
2
θ θ θ θ
The Reliability function, the probability of no failure before time
t is :
t t
R ( t ) = 1 − F( t ) = [1 − ] ∗ exp(− )
θ θ
Then the Hazard function which is the failure rate of a gamma
distribution is :
t t
exp(− )
f (t) θ t
= θ
2
H( t ) = = (2)
R (t) t t θ(θ − t )
[1 − ] ∗ exp(− )
θ θ
In Bayesian estimation, we consider two types of loss functions.
The first is squared error loss function (quadratic loss) which
classified as a symmetric function and associates equal
importance to the losses for overestimation and underestimation
of equal magnitude. The second is the LINEX (linear-
Iraqi Journal of Statistical Science (16) 2010 _____________ [15]
• L(⋅) is twice differentiable with L′(0) = 0 and L′′(∆) > 0 for all
∆≠0 .
• 0 < L′(∆) > (<) − L′(−∆) > 0 for all ∆ > 0 .
Such loss function is useful whenever the actual losses are
nonnegative , increases with estimation error, overestimation is
more (less) serious than under estimation of the same magnitude
and losses increase at a faster (slower) rate with overestimation
error .
Considering the loss function
L∗ ( ∆ ) ∝ b exp( a∆ ) + c∆ + d
and with the restriction L∗ (0) = 0 , (L∗ )′(0) = 0 , we get d = −b and
c = −ab ,see Thompson and Basu (1996). The resulting loss
function is:
L∗ ( ∆ ) ∝ b[exp( a∆ ) − a∆ − 1] (6)
Which is considered as a function of θ and θ̂ , is called the
LINEX loss function, a and b are constants with b > 0 so that the
loss function is nonnegative . The shape of the LINEX loss
function (6) is determined by the constant a , and the value of b
will be taken equal one (i.e. b = 1 ) .
In figure 1, values of exp( a∆ ) − a∆ − 1 are plotted against ∆ for
selected values of a . It is seen that for a > 0 , the curve rises
almost exponentially when ∆ > 0 and almost linearly when ∆ < 0
. on the other hand, if a < 0 the function rises almost
exponentially when ∆ < 0 and almost linearly when ∆ > 0 . So the
sign of a reflects the direction of asymmetry, a > 0(a < 0) if
overestimation is more (less) serious than underestimation; and
its magnitude reflects the degree of asymmetry. The important
view is that for small values of a the function is almost
symmetric and not far from a squared error loss (SEL).
The expanding exp( a∆ ) ≈ 1 + a∆ + a 2 ∆2 / 2, L(∆) ≈ a 2 ∆2 / 2 , a SEL
function.
Iraqi Journal of Statistical Science (16) 2010 _____________ [17]
n ∏Χ i − ∑ Χi
L( Χ θ) = ∏ f ( Χ i θ) = i =1
exp( i =1
) (7)
i =1 θ 2n θ
The natural logarithm of the likelihood function (7) :
l = ln L( Χ θ) = ∑ ln Χ i − 2n ln θ −
∑Χ i
⇒ θˆ ML =
∑Χ i
(8)
2n
Here we consider the non-informative prior f (θ) which is derived
from (7) as follows :
∂ 2 l 2 n 2∑ Χ i − ∂ 2l 2n
= − ⇒ F.I = −Ε[ ]= 2
∂θ 2 θ 2 θ3 ∂θ 2
θ
[18] ________________Bayes Estimator of one parameter...
θˆ θˆ
∞ ∞ ∞
Ε[L(∆)] = ∫ {exp[a ( − 1)]}π(θ Χ)dθ − ∫ a ( − 1)π(θ Χ)dθ − ∫ π(θ Χ)dθ
0
θ 0
θ 0
θˆ θˆ
= exp(−a )Ε[exp{a ( )}] − aE[( ) − 1] − 1 (14)
θ θ
The value of θ̂ that minimizes the posterior expectation of the
loss function L(∆) denoted by θ̂ LB (LB=LINEX Bayes) is
obtained by solving the equation :
∂Ε[L(∆)] a θˆ 1
= Ε[e −a exp(a ( )] − aE( ) = 0
∂θˆ θ θ θ
1 θˆ 1
⇒ Ε[ exp{a ( )}] = e a E ( ) (15)
θ θ θ
Provided that all expectations exist and finite, then we will use
(10) and (15) to find the expectations and get the optimal
estimate for θ ,
θˆ θˆ
∞
1 1
Ε[ exp{a ( )}] = ∫ exp{a ( )}π(θ Χ)dθ
θ θ 0
θ θ
(∑ Χ i ) 2 n ∞
θˆ − ∑ Χi
∫0
−( 2 n + 2 )
= θ exp{a ( )} exp( )dθ
Γ 2n θ θ
(∑ Χ i ) 2 n ∞
1
= ∫θ
−( 2 n + 2 )
exp{− (∑ Χ i − aθˆ )dθ
Γ 2n 0
θ
1 θˆ (∑ Χ i ) 2 n Γ 2n + 1 2n ( ∑ Χ i ) 2 n
⇒ Ε[ exp{a ( )}] = ∗ =
θ θ Γ 2n (∑ Χ i − aθˆ ) 2 n +1 (∑ Χ i − aθˆ ) 2 n +1
[20] ________________Bayes Estimator of one parameter...
And also
1
∞
1 (∑ Χ i ) 2 n ∞ − ( 2 n + 2 ) − ∑ Χi
E( ) = ∫ π(θ Χ)dθ =
Γ 2n ∫0
θ exp( )dθ
θ 0
θ θ
(∑ Χ i ) 2 n Γ 2n + 1
= ∗
Γ 2n (∑ Χ i ) 2 n +1
2n
=
∑ Χi
Then from (15), we have :
2n ( ∑ Χ i ) 2 n 2n a (∑ Χ i ) 2 n +1
= e ⇒ = ea
(∑ Χ i − aθˆ ) 2 n +1 ∑ Χ i (∑ Χ i − aθ)
ˆ 2 n +1
aθˆ 2 n +1 aθˆ
a
−
∴ (1 − ) = e −a ⇒ (1 − )=e 2 n +1
∑ Χi ∑ Χi
⇒ θˆ LB =
∑Χ
(1 − e
i
)
−
a
2 n +1
(16)
a
For more information (see Canfield (1970),Varin (1975) and
Zellner (1986)) .
Let S = ∑ Χ i then :
[22] ________________Bayes Estimator of one parameter...
∞
S 2 n −1 S
R S (θˆ SB , θ) = ∫ (θˆ SB
2
− 2θˆ SB θ + θ 2 ) ∗ 2 n exp( − )dS
0 θ Γ 2n θ
∞ ∞ ∞
ˆ S2n−1 S ˆ S2n−1 S S S
= ∫ θSB ∗ 2n
2
exp(− )dS − 2∫ θSBθ ∗ 2n exp(− )dS + ∫ θ2 ∗ 2n exp(− )dS
0 θ Γ2n θ 0 θ Γ2 θ 0 θ θ
Thus
2n (2n + 1)θ 2 4nθ 2
R S (θˆ SB , θ) = − + θ2
(2n − 1) 2
(2n − 1)
2n (2n + 1) 4n
⇒ R S (θˆ SB , θ) = θ 2 [ − + 1] (21)
(2n − 1) 2
(2n − 1)
The risk efficiency of θ̂ LB with respect to θ̂ SB under squared
error loss function is denoted by :
a a
− −
2n (2n + 1)(1 − e 2 n +1 ) 2 [4n (1 − e 2 n +1 )]
ˆ [ − + 1]
R (θ , θ) a2 a (22)
RE S (θˆ LB , θˆ SB ) = S LB =
R S (θˆ SB , θ) 2n (2n + 1) 4n
[ − + 1]
(2n − 1) 2 (2n − 1)
Thus
a a
− −
R L (θˆ LB , θ) = e 2 n +1 − 2n (1 − e 2 n +1 ) + a − 1
(24)
By the same way we can find R L (θˆ SB , θ) under squared error loss
Iraqi Journal of Statistical Science (16) 2010 _____________ [23]
θˆ SB
∞
a [( ) −1] θˆ SB (25)
R L (θˆ sB , θ) = ∫ {e θ
− a[( ) − 1] − 1}f ( x 1 , x 2 ,....., x n θ)dx 1dx 2 ......dx n
0
θ
Let S = ∑ Χ i then :
θˆ SB
∞
a [( ) −1] θˆ SB S 2 n −1 S
R L (θˆ SB , θ) = ∫ {e θ
− a[( ) − 1] − 1} ∗ 2 n exp( − )dS
0
θ θ Γ 2n θ
θˆ
∞
a [( SB ) −1] S 2 n −1
S θˆ SB ∞
S 2 n −1 S S 2 n −1
∞
S S 2 n −1
∞
S
= ∫e θ
∗ exp( − ) dS − ∫ a ( ) ∗ exp( − ) dS + ∫ a ∗ exp( − ) dS − ∫ exp( − )dS
0 θ Γ 2n
2n
θ 0
θ θ Γ 2n
2n
θ 0 θ Γ 2n
2n
θ 0 θ Γ 2n
2n
θ
Thus
a −2n a
R L (θˆ SB , θ) = e −a (1 − ) − −1 (26)
2n − 1 2n − 1
The risk efficiency of θ̂ LB with respect to θ̂ SB under
LINEX loss function is denoted by :
a a
− −
ˆ ˆ R L (θˆ LB , θ) e 2 n +1 − 2n (1 − e 2 n +1 ) + a − 1
RE L (θ LB , θ SB ) = = (27)
R L (θˆ SB , θ) e −a (1 − a ) − 2 n − a − 1
2n − 1 2n − 1
9- Numerical Example
We generated Ν = 500 samples of sizes n = 10,20,30 from
equation (1) with θ = 1 , we used Minitab to generate these
samples and we take randomly the samples of size n = 10,20,30 ,
respectively and then the risk functions are computed for the
estimators θ̂ LB and θ̂ SB under the LINEX loss function and
squared error loss , and also computed the risk efficiency to
compare between the LINEX loss and squared error loss function
to check which estimator is inadmissible under theses functions .
The results are explained in tables from 1 to 6 .
[24] ________________Bayes Estimator of one parameter...
10- Conclusion
1- From tables (1-6), we observe that the risk efficiency
RE L (θˆ LB , θˆ SB ) is greater than 1, which means that the proposed
estimators θ̂ LB is preferable to θ̂ SB for the sample sizes n = 10,20,30
from gamma distribution with parameters (α = 2, θ = 1) and for all
values of " a " (a = ±0.5,±1,±2) .
Iraqi Journal of Statistical Science (16) 2010 _____________ [27]
11- References
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life testing and reliability estimation using asymmetric loss
function. J. Statist. Plann. Infer., 29, 21–31.
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asymmetric loss functions for left truncated exponential
samples. Commun. Statist. Theory. Meth., 25, 585–600.
3- Canfield, R. V. (1970), A Bayesian approach to reliability
estimation using a loss function. IEEE Trans. Reliab., R-19,
13–16.
4- Chhikara, R., and Folks, J. (1977), The Inverse Gaussian
Distribution As A Life Model. Technometrics 19, 461-468 .
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distribution Model from a Bayesian viewpoint. Data Science
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for the exponentiated Weibull model, Commun. Statist.-
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exponential distribution using LINEX loss function.
Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth., 26(9), 2191–2202.
8- Parsian, A., and Kirmani, S. N. U. A. (2002), Estimation under
LINEX loss function. Unpublished manuscript.
9- Sherif, Y. S., and Smith, M. L., (1980), First- Passage Time
Distribution of Brownian motion as a reliability model.
IEEE Transaction of Reliability, R-29, No.5,425-426 .
10- Sinha, S. and Kale, B. (1980) Life Testing and Reliability
Estimation. John Wiley & Sons .
[28] ________________Bayes Estimator of one parameter...