Retail 2020

Competing in a Changing Industry

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Retail 2020
Competing in a Changing Industry

Pierre Mercier, Rune Jacobsen, and Andy Veitch

August 2012
AT A GLANCE

The retail industry is undergoing a major transformation. What is your company

doing to adapt and stay relevant today and into the next decade?

The Informed, Empowered Consumer

Retailers must determine what their customers value and are willing to pay for. Con-
sumers generally look for the best value, the best service, or the best experience.

Complex, Multichannel Shopping and Marketing

With more data on consumers, retailers can create highly targeted, relevant
marketing campaigns or in-store interactions. But few retailers have the needed
skills and capabilities.

Shifting Real-Estate Demands

As even grocery shopping goes online, what role will brick-and-mortar stores play in
the future, what will they look like, and what will drive traffic their way?

An Evolving Supply Chain

Companies must determine what technologies and configurations will give them
the flexibility and efficiency they’ll need for tomorrow’s demands.

2 Retail 2020
T he retail industry is undergoing a major transformation right before our
eyes—and it’s just a preview of what’s to come. More than a billion Internet
users have gone mobile, profoundly changing how people buy and companies sell.
As per-store sales decline, all legacy retailers will need to rethink the role of these
brick-and-mortar assets, reassess their locations, and rightsize them to meet chang-
ing consumer needs. This reevaluation may transform how many companies
operate—and lead to massive changes in market shares, the retailer landscape, and
commercial real estate.

The explosion of mobile devices and social media is transforming how we connect
and how we make buying decisions. As sales channels multiply and the boundaries
between them blur, consumers still want a unifying brand experience, no matter
where or how they find it. In this new world of retail, consumers are more empow-
ered and influential than ever before: they can instantly compare prices and
product quality, voice their opinions online, and help shape new products and
services.

But retailers also hold strong cards in their hands. The major players have always
used scale to maximize their buying power, but today that scale also delivers a Given the accelerating
treasure-trove of data on shoppers’ behaviors and preferences. With access to more rate of change, what
detailed, real-time information about potential customers—and more ways to reach is your company
them—companies can improve on everything from innovation to marketing to the doing to adapt and
overall customer experience. At the same time, a range of maturing retail technolo- stay relevant today
gies can help streamline backroom functions and logistics, lowering costs and and into the next
sharply increasing efficiency. These and other key trends are transforming the decade?
industry behind the scenes.

With pricing, quality, and opinions so transparent online—and the value bar contin-
ually rising—how does your retail offering compare? Why should consumers spend
their hard-earned money with you instead of with another big-box competitor, an
established online player like Amazon.com, or an innovative startup selling through
an online marketplace? (See the sidebar “The Rise of Online Marketplaces.”)
Record stores have all but disappeared in our lifetime, and many bookstores are
following suit. Given the accelerating rate of change, what is your company doing to
adapt and stay relevant today and into the next decade? Do you understand what
your customers really want from you—and what it takes to win them over?

By 2015, with Internet access at the office, at home, and on the move, consumers
will be full-time shoppers and most purchases will have some online aspect. In

The Boston Consulting Group 3

 THE RISE OF ONLINE MARKETPLACES
As e-commerce grows and consumers ucts and offers shoppers an instant-
become increasingly comfortable with messaging tool that allows them to
Internet shopping, huge online communicate with sellers in real
marketplaces like eBay, Amazon, time, a seller-rating system, and an
Taobao, and Rakuten are changing escrow service for payments. Taobao
the face of retailing. By providing busi- accounted for 79 percent of China’s
nesses and small vendors with a online transaction value in 2010. By
low-cost way of reaching a large contrast, most other e-commerce
volume of potential customers, these markets are far more fragmented. In
marketplaces are growing rapidly and Japan, for instance, leading market-
becoming dominant players in their place Rakuten has just a 30 percent
respective countries. share of online transactions; and in
the U.S., Amazon has only a 17
Taobao.com, for instance, has virtually percent share. Still, the top online
defined the e-commerce landscape in marketplaces are growing by 50
China. In 2010, it sold more merchan- percent or more per year and have
dise than China’s top five brick-and- become a retail force to be reckoned
mortar retailers combined. The site with.
boasts more than 800 million prod-

order to prepare for this not-so-distant future, legacy retailers must address four
critical challenges:

•• The Informed, Empowered Consumer. How will you continue to attract business
and build loyalty?

•• Complex, Multichannel Shopping and Marketing. With the explosion of touch

points and data, in what new ways will you reach shoppers most effectively and
deliver the best experience?

•• Shifting Real-Estate Demands. With even grocery shopping going online, what role
will your stores play in the future, what will they look like, and what will drive
traffic their way?

•• An Evolving Supply Chain. What technologies and configurations will give you the
flexibility and efficiency you’ll need for tomorrow’s demands?

Any legacy retailer that isn’t thinking about how to answer these tough questions is
at risk of falling behind as the industry moves forward. Let’s look at each of these
challenges more closely.

The Informed, Empowered Consumer

Today’s consumers are more knowledgeable and discriminating than those of the
past—and constantly connected to the Internet. With online access to detailed

4 Retail 2020
product information, price comparisons, user reviews, and the recommendations of
“friends” on social media sites, they can cut through marketing hyperbole and
make informed buying decisions. And if they’re not happy with their purchases or
experiences, they can spread their negative opinions quickly and broadly online,
creating PR nightmares that some businesses never fully recover from. But if your
customers are passionate about your company’s products and services, they can
spread the love just as easily.

To compete effectively, retailers must enhance their traditional function- or catego-

ry-specific focus with a customer-centric lens. (See the sidebar “Focusing on the
Customer.”) They must determine what their customers value and are willing to pay
for—and go out of their way to provide it. Consumers generally look for one of
three things: the best value, the best service, or the best experience. They may not
expect all three from one company, but if you’re not the best in at least one of
these areas, why should they shop with you? It’s too easy to find other options. And
make no mistake about it: in a world of sharply improved transparency, being the
best in one or more of these areas will quickly become table stakes.

The Best Value

Consumers seeking the best value want the overall lowest price or the best quality
for their money. Many traditional retailers face huge pressure from pure-play
e-tailers and e-marketplaces like Amazon.com. One shopper we surveyed raved
about Amazon’s low prices, extensive selection, and customer reviews. She won’t Established brick-and-
consider buying a big-ticket item unless it has a critical mass of positive reviews on mortar retailers must
the e-tailer’s website. Then she knows she’s getting a top-quality product at a find ways to compete
rock-bottom price. Other consumers swear by Costco or Wal-Mart. In the digital age, on more than just
greater price transparency is available for online and in-store purchases alike. price, since they tend
Companies selling the same products for more are quickly unmasked. And if your to be at a cost disad-
product offers greater quality or value to justify a higher price, finding ways to vantage against pure
inform and convince shoppers of that is the challenge. e-tailers in many
product categories.
Agile retailers can pull in bargain shoppers, build loyalty, and become the go-to
place for deals by offering discount coupons, sales notices, or other incentives
through e-mail, buying clubs, mobile apps, social media, or location-based services
such as Foursquare, which encourages users to visit nearby retail establishments
and tell their friends about it. For example, McDonald’s Japan sends mobile dis-
count offers to targeted customers at specific times—for instance, to students after
school or to families at lunchtime on Saturdays, or as a way to increase traffic on
rainy days. Some of these new technologies and techniques designed to draw foot
traffic are still immature, and success will be hit or miss as retailers experiment and
figure out how best to exploit them. Regardless, established brick-and-mortar
retailers must find ways to compete on more than just price, since they tend to be at
a cost disadvantage against pure e-tailers in many product categories.

The Best Service

Retailers with the best service are easy to buy from, with their fast and efficient
processes and excellent support, selection, and convenience. They may offer custom-
ized products, the widest or most targeted selection, knowledgeable salespeople,
curbside valet parking, complimentary espresso, fast checkout, or hassle-free returns.

The Boston Consulting Group 5

 FOCUSING ON THE CUSTOMER
Until recently, retailers typically key consumer segments and then
organized themselves by function and communicating with different
category. Functions such as market- segments in tailored ways.
ing, category management, retail,
online, CRM, real estate, and logistics •• Promotions. Instead of aiming
were solely responsible for the promotions at general consumer
decisions made within their silos. Few segments, which can encourage
companies thought about the cherry-picking, companies are
customer experience as an integrated using them to increase the
whole. spending and loyalty of higher-
value customers.
Today’s forward-looking retailers are
augmenting this model by segment- •• Loyalty Programs and Communica-
ing consumers on the basis of their tions. Instead of designing these
shopping habits and spending levels, programs to maximize penetration
and ensuring that their organizations and adoption of the loyalty card,
are hard-wired to meet the needs of retailers are using the data they
their highest-value customers. This generate to better serve their core,
customer-centric model is critical now high-value customers—and recruit
that consumers have become more more of them.
powerful and discriminating.
•• Shopping Experience (Store Design,
Here’s how this new focus is changing Signage, and Interaction). Retailers
the way retailers think of their are explicitly tailoring their stores
business: and websites to improve the
shopping experience of their
•• Assortment. Instead of making target consumers. And as new
assumptions about what products fulfillment models emerge,
customers want on the basis of retailers are rethinking the role of
space and inventory turns, stores more broadly.
retailers are doing a detailed
analysis of what products each •• Multichannel Touch Points. Retail-
segment is buying. This enhanced ers are eliminating the organiza-
knowledge helps companies refine tional, operational, and technical
how they plan and allocate their barriers that impede customer
merchandise to stores and service and moving to more
channels, so they can optimize shopper-centric ways of working,
their assortments and layouts although much room for improve-
accordingly. ment remains.

•• Advertising and Marketing. Instead

of making decisions driven by the
general effectiveness of marketing
and advertising, retailers are ana-
lyzing the impact of campaigns on

6 Retail 2020
They make it their business to understand and meet their customers’ specific needs
and ensure that every transaction goes smoothly and ends with a smile.

For example, customers of Zappos, the online shoe seller that has also branched out
into other areas, rave about the company’s selection, service, and free returns. Lego
lets shoppers use its website to design their own models and then ships the custom-
ized pieces. Japan’s Seibu Department Stores offer a free makeup “touchup” service
from 5 to 8 p.m. for loyalty card members who are leaving the office to go out for
the evening. The cosmetics department also provides free consultations, a self-ser-
vice skin analysis, and an online “click and collect” service that lets customers pick
up their orders from a nearby 7-Eleven at no cost.

As service innovations proliferate throughout the industry, consumers’ expectations

are rising in response. Fortunately, new technologies are also improving in-store
service, making it easier for shoppers to get detailed product information, locate
specific items, and check out quickly. As low-value tasks are increasingly eliminated Retailers that offer
or automated through electronic shelf labeling, self-checkout, and other advances, the best experience
store personnel will be more available to focus on higher-value tasks that enhance understand that
service or the shopping experience—important differentiators when the lowest shopping can be a
price and the greatest selection are increasingly the realm of pure e-tailers. form of entertain-
ment shared with
The Best Experience family and friends.
Outside the narrow province of convenience-related categories or store formats,
retailers that offer the best experience understand that shopping can be a form of
entertainment shared with family and friends. Instead of just making a grab-and-go
purchase, their customers want to learn, have fun, be visually engaged, or socialize
with like-minded people. Store appearance and environment are critical, and the
shopping experience must build loyalty and support the brand’s identity.

Retailers that want to hold on to their traditional brick-and-mortar stores may find
that providing a memorable experience is the way to stay relevant and differentiat-
ed as more consumers go online. Besides selling outdoor clothing and gear, REI, for
example, offers in-store experts, classes and events, indoor rock-climbing walls,
clinics on everything from GPS usage to backpacking basics, school and adventure
trips, volunteer opportunities, and a family adventure program. The American Girl
franchise sells dolls, clothes, books, games, and gifts for young girls. Its family-
friendly stores create a special, small-scale dream world with a doll hospital, café,
museum, photo booth, and endless displays of dolls and accessories—the perfect
place for birthday parties or to spend one-on-one time with a daughter, grand-
daughter, or niece. American Girl also has a strong online community and website
that maintain a connection with girls until their next in-store experience.

These experiential extras come at a cost, however, and retailers must be sure that
they can recoup their higher operating expenses through greater sales volume, high-
er margins, cross-sales, or all of the above—either directly from the store or indi-
rectly through related websites.

The most successful retailers go beyond low prices and find ways to balance value,
service, and experience. The best retailers inspire passion and loyalty in their

The Boston Consulting Group 7

 customers—and the desire to spread the word. Do your customers feel that way
about you? With information and recommendations at their fingertips, it’s easy for
unhappy shoppers to turn to your competition. And when customers disappear,
brick-and-mortar retailers quickly start losing money if they don’t have healthy
online sales.

Because of the This dynamic also works in reverse. When retailers get it right, they can win share
growing market disproportionately from the weaker players. As word quickly spreads, the positive
complexity and buzz increases momentum. With growing sales volume, more inventory turns, and
heightened consumer greater scale, these retailers have more funds to invest in service, merchandising,
expectations, retailers store appearance, and expansion. The virtuous cycle for winners and downward
must have a strong, cycle for losers have always existed, but they’re getting stronger and faster given
dynamic multichan- consumers’ growing power, their instant access to information, and the explosion of
nel strategy. new sales channels.

Complex, Multichannel Shopping and Marketing

Channels are multiplying—providing more opportunities to interact and engage
with consumers. Because of the growing market complexity and heightened con-
sumer expectations, retailers must have a strong, dynamic multichannel strategy.
They need to be absolutely clear about whom they’re targeting, what value proposi-
tion they’re offering, and what their competitive advantage is—especially since
consumers are bombarded by choice. Yet many of the strategies we see are fuzzy,
rely on unrealistic assumptions about shopper loyalty or stickiness, and fail to fully
recognize the new reality.

As consumers become more comfortable buying online and on the go, they are
becoming channel agnostic. Shoppers don’t “pick” a channel with which to conduct
their business. Instead, they tend to use a mix of online and offline channels as they
move through the purchasing process, and may not even be aware of it. For instance,
they may go online to get product information and customer reviews but buy offline
at a trusted store or through an in-store terminal. Or they may go to a store where
they can see and touch different products, and then go online to find the best price
and make the purchase or buy out-of-stock sizes. Or they may repurchase a product
online by scanning the product code on the package with their cell phone. The key is
to provide shoppers with a seamless experience. Today’s consumer has high expecta-
tions and limited patience for or understanding of lack of channel integration—such
as the inability to return to a store something purchased online.

With more data on consumers—their online and in-store activities, purchasing

patterns, and preferences—retailers have the potential to create highly targeted,
relevant marketing campaigns or in-store interactions. But few have invested
sufficiently in the skills and capabilities needed to make sense of this explosion of
data and use it to their advantage. This is unfortunate, because today’s savvy
consumers are increasingly unforgiving of mass mailings, “personalized” offers that
miss the target, and errors related to faulty or poorly integrated CRM systems.
Until retailers correct these shortcomings, their customer-outreach efforts are
bound to fail—and they’ll risk becoming irrelevant and losing out to more adept
competitors.

8 Retail 2020
This proliferation of sales channels is also leading to growing complexity. Besides
traditional media outlets such as TV, print, billboards, and catalogs, companies have
in-store, online, and mobile options to contend with. Mobile advertising alone offers
a dizzying range of possibilities: messaging-based ads, Web display ads, search ads,
location-specific ads, and ads in games and other applications. All of these alterna-
tives are creating new opportunities to connect with consumers. The challenge is
figuring out how to use each channel most effectively and how to reach shoppers at
each stage of the marketing “funnel”—attraction, conversion, and retention.

As the amount of new information available grows exponentially and possibilities

to interact with consumers increase at a dizzying pace, brick-and-mortar retailers
are experimenting. For instance, Ikea bridges the gap between the real and virtual
worlds by offering apps that let users visualize furniture in their own rooms. Marui,
a popular fashion retailer in Japan, seamlessly integrates online and offline chan-
nels; shoppers can try on clothes, browse the company’s website, order for delivery
anywhere, and return items bought online. United Arrows, another Japanese
retailer, launched a website called UA Style Share. Shoppers can dress their person-
al “avatars” in outfits and share them with friends through Facebook and Twitter.
The website drives traffic to the stores by letting users see what inventory is avail-
able at the nearest location. And the stores drive traffic to the website by displaying
Quick Response (QR) codes that shoppers can scan with their smartphones to get
free or discounted items online. Other retailers are using Facebook and Twitter to
reach consumers. Starbucks uses social media to raise awareness of new products
and has a highly successful mobile app that builds loyalty and repeat visits. Sephora
tracks how many sales come from advocates and from friends’ recommendations
on social media sites.

It remains to be seen how many of these new approaches will succeed over the
long haul and how many will become yesterday’s news. But one thing is clear:
retailers must continually change, experiment, and learn, revisiting and revising
their positioning and capabilities as needed in order to stay relevant. Standing still
will be the kiss of death in this rapidly changing industry.

Shifting Real-Estate Demands Established retailers

As consumers buy more online, it’s not surprising that some traditional brick-and- have substantial asset
mortar stores are beginning to see an erosion of foot traffic. Unlike pure-play bases, and those with
e-tailers, which have no commercial real estate, established retailers have substan- a large number of
tial asset bases, and those with a large number of big stores are the most vulnera- stores are the most
ble to the changing industry dynamics. This situation is very different from the days vulnerable to the
when store scale conferred labor and cost advantages and an overall economic changing industry
edge. With so many stores trading only marginally above their breakeven points, dynamics.
even a small loss of foot traffic and sales can quickly put them in the red.

The changing traffic patterns mean that undifferentiated superstores and shopping
malls that are neither convenient nor iconic are at risk of losing business unless
they find new ways to attract shoppers, such as offering in-store pickup or the
ability to check product availability online. Mall operators must attract and retain
“destination” stores that draw an ongoing volume of shoppers. Temporarily, at

The Boston Consulting Group 9

least, this may mean that popular retailers will get more attractive deals at the
expense of less popular mall stores.

As these and other trends unfold and the role of traditional retail formats is gradu-
ally redefined, there will be a strong impact on the commercial real-estate market
and the shape of retail footprints. (See the sidebar “Ten Trends to Watch.”) For-
ward-looking companies are analyzing their holdings, identifying suboptimal
locations, exiting some locations as their leases expire, evaluating new formats, and
exploring creative solutions for managing excess space and increasing profits per
square foot. For instance, some companies are cutting costs and square footage by
moving from self-service to service counters; such stores require less shelving and
space but can accommodate more stock in high-density backrooms. In the acceler-
ating rush to capture favorable locations and unload less desirable ones, the early
movers stand to win.

TEN TRENDS TO WATCH

These ten trends are reshaping the of product origins. But it remains
retail industry. How will your company to be seen whether they will pay
respond? more for green products.

1. Empowered, Discriminating 4. Explosion of Consumer Data.

Consumers. With access to Points of sale, social media,
product information, price com- corporate websites, and tracking
parisons, and user reviews, URLs are generating an enormous
consumers can make informed amount of consumer data, but few
decisions—and widely share their retailers are capable of fully
complaints. For retailers, the bar is exploiting the potential value of
rising, and they must add mean- this input. It will take time,
ingful value to what shoppers can because the volume of data is still
find for themselves, both online growing faster than the ability to
and in stores. process it.

2. Ubiquitous Connectivity. With 5. New Age of Marketing. With

the Internet available at work, at more data on customers, their
home, and on the go, consumers online activities, and purchasing
will be full-time shoppers and patterns, retailers will be able to
most purchases will have some create more targeted marketing
online aspect. Smartphone campaigns—once they figure out
numbers will be in the billions by how to mine the insights. This will
the end of this decade. require experimentation and
calibration—and consumers will
3. Buying Local, Going Green. have limited tolerance for misguid-
Shoppers want to consume in a ed marketing efforts.
responsible, sustainable way. They
want to purchase from organic 6. Scientific Retailing. By applying
and local vendors, and want proof smart algorithms and deep,

10 Retail 2020
As retailers rethink the role of stores and the economics of their real-estate foot-
prints, shoppers can expect to see a plethora of experimental, next-generation
stores spring up both on Main Streets and in malls. These stores will offer special-
ized products, new order-fulfillment options, new services, and so-called experien-
tial features to help generate new revenue streams. The key is to redefine the role
of stores so that they better meet shoppers’ needs and expectations in a way that is
economically feasible.

Tesco, the U.K. grocery chain, has long been a pioneer in experimenting with
different formats and locations to cover a broad spectrum of shoppers’ needs and
price points. Among its holdings are large hypermarkets, bargain warehouse stores,
convenience stores, suburban supermarkets, and city supermarkets. Tesco also
actively manages its sales channels and portfolio of stores to best meet shoppers’
patterns and behaviors. To this end, it recently announced a deliberate focus on

data-driven analytics to the won’t fundamentally alter the

unprecedented volume of data relative economics between
from multiple sources, companies store-based and online transac-
can optimize all aspects of their tions.
business, including inventory
levels, pricing, warehouse space, 9. Blurring Boundaries Among
assortments, shelf displays, and Channels, Formats, and
staffing. Brands. CVS is selling fresh food,
grocery stores have in-house bank
7. Growing Retailer Power. The branches, and bookstores have
top five grocery stores in the U.S. cafés selling Starbucks coffee.
now have a 33 percent share of Rather than thinking in terms of
the market—up from 25.5 percent channels, consumers are simply
in 2000. As their spending increas- opportunistic. If they have a need
es, they have more clout with and can fulfill it easily and
suppliers. But in several catego- conveniently, they will.
ries, the increased retailer power
may tilt toward large Internet 10. Challenged Store Economics.
players or marketplaces as their The rise of online buying is
growth outpaces the brick-and- eroding store traffic, forcing
mortar competition. retailers to rethink their costly
real-estate assets and merchan-
8. Maturing Retail Technologies. dising formats. How valuable will
A wide range of maturing tech- bricks and mortar be in the future
nologies is allowing companies to and for what role? Dynamics will
streamline backroom functions play out very differently by
and increase efficiency, helping to category and location.
offset higher labor costs. While
these are part of the solution for
brick-and-mortar retailers, they

The Boston Consulting Group 11

 Web-based channels. The company has also announced plans to open its own
online marketplace selling general merchandise, and inviting other retailers to
join in.

Novelty watch maker Swatch uses pop-up stores to capitalize on “spot traffic” and
manage peak demand. It often sets up a one-day pop-up store for a single concert
As channels pro- or festival, as well as stores for peak times only, such as Christmas. By moving
liferate, fulfillment quickly to respond to the latest trends, it maintains its flexibility—and beats com-
models change, and petitors to the best locations. Japanese retailers such as Uniqlo and Tokyu Hands
store roles evolve, are also moving to smaller-format satellite shops in high-traffic locations such as
most retailers will train stations. Similarly, the Argos department-store chain took its gift catalog to
need to revisit their train stations in the U.K. during the holiday season. Last-minute Christmas shoppers
traditional supply- could reserve the items they wanted by scanning the QR codes with their smart-
chain strategies and phones and pick up the gifts later at a store.
tactics.
A few companies are already fundamentally rethinking the purpose of their
stores—moving away from the idea of sales transactions as their primary goal. For
instance, Dwell in the U.K. views its stores as “shopper recruitment vehicles,” where
store managers are rewarded for the number of e-mail addresses they gather, not
for the volume of sales they generate. Other retailers are using their stores as
learning centers or product showrooms, where consumers can touch and feel the
merchandise before committing to a purchase. As the purpose of stores changes,
retailers will need new metrics to measure their effectiveness—such as the cost of
acquiring customers or their “lifetime value,” instead of sales or gross margin per
square foot.

Legacy retailers must develop clear strategies for store formats and supporting
real-estate portfolios. The key is to continually test new approaches, learn from
successes and mistakes, and adapt both the store concept and the network footprint
to evolving consumer needs and the competitive multichannel landscape.

An Evolving Supply Chain

As channels proliferate, fulfillment models change, and store roles evolve, most
retailers will need to revisit their traditional supply-chain strategies and tactics as
well. Shifting from the traditional wholesale movement of bulk merchandise to
stores toward the faster, more agile piece “pick and pack” models of the online
world requires a fundamentally different mindset and supply chain configuration.
To compete with e-tailers such as Amazon, which offers about 50 million items,
nonfood retailers must sharply improve the choices they offer—while avoiding the
crushing carrying costs. To this end, they must think hard about what to stock in
stores, what to carry online, what to warehouse, and what to source directly from
suppliers when orders come in. Virtual supply chains are part of the answer.
Instead of owning and holding every item they offer, retailers must develop respon-
sive supply chains that can deliver many goods from the manufacturer’s warehouse
directly to the customer. But this agility often comes at an additional cost. Retailers
that want to delight customers with broad product choices and differentiating
service must keep in mind that there is a limit to the price premium that shoppers
are willing to pay.

12 Retail 2020
Traditional food and grocery retailers continue to struggle with the financial
viability of online ordering and fulfillment models. They are experimenting with a
range of fulfillment options—full delivery, shop and deliver, and online ordering
with store pickup (“click and collect”). For high-volume, fast-turnover grocers
operating in densely populated areas, “dark stores,” or warehouses that prepare
customer orders and offer the option of either pickup or home delivery, are becom-
ing more prevalent. Grocery stores in areas with less demand density (like E.
Leclerc or Groupe Auchan in some regions of France) continue for now to rely on
the click-and-collect model. This model creates significant operating challenges,
such as the need to feed real-time and accurate information on in-store product
availability into a website or mobile shopping app. Grocers that hope to operate a
profitable online business will need to increase their technical capabilities and
continue to test different fulfillment and pricing models. Because the relative
competitiveness of fulfillment channels varies according to the size, weight, and
value of goods, grocery retailers are likely to develop different shopping options for
different categories and product types.

The right information systems—and absolutely reliable data—are critical to ensure Grocers that hope to
better assessments of inventory levels and demand, as well as faster response operate a profitable
times. A number of technologies are emerging that will help in this area. RFID is online business will
finally maturing, demand-sensing technologies are improving replenishment need to increase their
decisions, and POS data analysis and in-store tracking will help make inventory technical capabilities
data more robust. and continue to test
different fulfillment
The repercussions will be felt upstream as well. As they seek ways to compete with and pricing models.
the advantaged cost structures of online players, legacy retailers will look to their
suppliers, which will be expected to ramp up their supply chains to offer shorter
cycle times and greater availability. The next generation of collaborative-planning,
forecasting, and replenishment tools will allow retailers to work more closely with
suppliers—and their suppliers’ suppliers—to further minimize overstocks or
shortages. Wal-Mart’s pioneering Retail Link has long offered an electronic bridge
to suppliers, providing them with data on sales and inventory levels. Now replicated
by most large grocers around the world, this type of close integration also gives
suppliers a better sense of true demand, which can reduce inventory levels and
improve availability throughout the supply chain. Spanish grocer Mercadona has
created an integrated supply chain with 110 suppliers and a goal of eliminating any
activities that don’t add value. The company has sharply improved operating
efficiency, information flows, and innovation, and is known for its low prices.

Greater information transparency and supplier integration can provide a founda-

tion for true demand-driven ordering and vendor-managed inventory (VMI), in
which suppliers take responsibility for stock replenishment. Proven results include
increased product freshness, improved on-shelf availability, and reduced inventory.

Distribution centers and warehouses will also evolve to accommodate new supply-
chain configurations. Many retailers are moving toward joint warehouses or “consol-
idation centers,” often partly funded by suppliers. By enabling stockless operations
or the ongoing flow of goods, these approaches eliminate the need to carry any
inventory at all. Retailers that understand their evolving needs and have the

The Boston Consulting Group 13

flexibility to adapt their supply chains accordingly will gain a sustainable cost and
service advantage.

“Eco friendly” practices are also expected to gain wider adoption. Backhauling—the
practice of picking up goods from suppliers on the return trip after making a
delivery—saves miles, labor, and energy costs. One retailer made its transportation-
management system more efficient by integrating its delivery routing and schedul-
ing, and by tracking vehicles more closely. As a result, the company was able to cut
turnaround times by 15 percent, increase on-time deliveries by 17 percent, and
reduce empty truck runs by 12 percent. Software packages can greatly optimize
load building to increase trailer utilization and reduce planning time. But few retail-
ers have the capabilities and work processes that would fully exploit the functional-
ity of these software systems.

As consumers form new buying patterns, new store formats and fulfillment chan-
nels emerge, and new technologies mature, retailers must continue to adapt their
supply chains to ensure that they remain relevant and offer the best possible
service in the most cost-competitive ways.

A lthough the competition and pressure on traditional retailers are heating

up, the future is still largely unknown. The only certainty is the magnitude of
change that is coming—change that will drive a major industry transformation. To
survive, retailers must constantly reinvent themselves and develop strong capabili-
ties in the areas of consumer insight, CRM, fulfillment channels, store concept
development, performance management, and supply chain integration. These are
uncharted waters, and retailers must test, learn, and correct course as they go. Make
no mistake about it: the future will belong to those agile industry players that can
rapidly renew themselves—and refuse to cede ground to the competition.

14 Retail 2020
About the Authors
Pierre Mercier is a partner and managing director in the London office of The Boston Consulting
Group. You may contact him by e-mail at [email protected].

Rune Jacobsen is a senior partner and managing director in the firm’s Oslo office. You may
contact him by e-mail at [email protected].

Andy Veitch is a principal in BCG’s London office. You may contact him by e-mail at
[email protected].

Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Katherine Andrews, Gary Callahan, Martha Craumer, Kim Fried-
man, Abby Garland, Sharon Slodki, and Sara Strassenreiter for their contributions to the writing,
editing, design, and production of this report.

For Further Contact

If you would like to discuss this report, please contact one of the authors.

The Boston Consulting Group 15

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© The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. 2012. All rights reserved.

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