Blackrock Smart Beta Guide en Au PDF
Blackrock Smart Beta Guide en Au PDF
Blackrock Smart Beta Guide en Au PDF
SMART BETA
GUIDE
SMART BETA
GUIDE
“Factors are the language
of investing that everyone
should be speaking.
Smart beta is the vehicle
to deliver factor investing.”
[2] FORE WORD
Foreword
If you are an investor, whether you are the CIO of a large pension fund or an individual
saving for retirement, you should care about factors. Why? Because factors are what drive
the risk and return in your portfolio. The ability to harness factors appropriately can ensure
your investments are working to meet your goals.
In the simplest form, factors are broad, historically persistent drivers of return. These
sources of return are intuitive and well-understood by the marketplace. They are expected
to endure over the long term because they are rewarded for bearing risk, or they arise
through structural impediments or behavioural biases.
Just as runners must understand and rely upon the nutrients in their food to ensure they
have the energy to run a marathon, investors can employ specific factors to achieve unique
and personal investment objectives, such as reducing the overall risk of a portfolio, or
enhancing long-term returns.
With a growing number of smart beta providers and offerings emerging in the marketplace,
where should an investor turn for help?
I joined BlackRock because I believe this firm is the leader in the factor investing space.
Backed by decades of investment expertise in systematic strategies, industry-leading
research and analytics, and unparalleled execution capabilities, BlackRock is the partner
to help you assess which factors you own, which factors you want to own and how best to
employ specific strategies like smart beta to achieve your unique goals.
This guide is designed to simplify the key considerations behind the investment concept
by providing investors with a deeper look into the what, why and how of smart beta.
I hope this desk reference will be a comprehensive resource as you begin to explore
the potential of factor investing.
I am a true advocate of factor investing and I believe smart beta is THE way we can
empower all investors to access these sources of returns in a simple and affordable way.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [3]
[4] S M A R T B E TA G U I D E
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD 3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 60
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [ 5 ]
SECTION 1: UNDERSTANDING SMART BETA
SECTION 1
Captures well-understood
Subjective oversight
drivers of return
Transparent Novel
[8] U N D E R S TA N D I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 1
Exposure to
High High High
macro factors
Exposure to
Low Moderate Moderate
style factors
Source: Smart Beta: Defining the Opportunity and Solutions, BlackRock, 2015.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [9]
SECTION 1
14%
Momentum
13%
Risk Weighted
ANNUALISED RETURN
Minimum Volatility
11%
MSCI World
10%
11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17%
ANNUALISED RISK
Performance of MSCI World based indices, USD, (28 November 1975 – 30 June 2015).
Source: BlackRock and MSCI as of June 2015. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The following table illustrates several iterations of a 60% equity and 40%
fixed income portfolio invested in US equity and fixed income assets.
The ‘Base Line’ portfolio is invested in capitalisation weighted indices for
equity and fixed income. The ‘Lower Volatility’ portfolio seeks to reduce
total volatility relative to the ‘Base Line’ market portfolio, while the ‘Seek
Outperformance’ portfolio looks to outperform the ‘Base Line’ portfolio.
[10 ] U N D E R S TA N D I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 1
Total annualised
5.65% 6.54% 8.13%
return
Total annualised
8.87% 7.55% 9.76%
risk
Return to risk
0.64 0.87 0.84
ratio
Source: BlackRock and MSCI as of June 2015. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of
future performance.
* Max drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline during a specific period of an investment.
December 1998 – June 2015. Portfolios are rebalanced semi-annually.
350
CUMULATIVE RETURN
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jun 99 Jun 01 Jun 03 Jun 05 Jun 07 Jun 09 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 15
60% MSCI USA 60% MSCI USA Minimum Volatility 60% MSCI USA Diversified Multiple Factor
40% Barclays US 40% US FI Balanced Risk 40% US FI Balanced Risk
Aggregate (Base Line) (Lower Volatility) (Seek Outperformance)
Source: BlackRock and MSCI as of June 2015. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
S M A R T B E T A G U I D E [ 11 ]
SECTION 1
45 % ofhavetheexpense
all about ‘are
~800 smart beta ETPs globally
we exposed to
the right factors’, ratios below 50bps
whilst previously
Source: BlackRock, as of August 2015.
it was still about
stock selection,
alpha and
Increased transparency
these types
Transparency is a defining attribute of smart beta strategies. Like traditional
of things.
index strategies, smart beta strategies follow pre-set rules to determine the
Dutch Private Bank process for security selection, portfolio construction and rebalancing. The
rules are not adjusted for changing market conditions. Often those rules are
published by a third-party benchmark provider. The level of transparency
means investors should have full knowledge of construction rules and portfolio
characteristics, thereby enhancing their ability to make informed allocations
and build more diversified portfolios. Armed with a clear view of the delivered
exposures, investors can be more informed about how a strategy is likely to
perform in various market regimes.
[ 12 ] U N D E R S T A N D I N G S M A R T B E T A
SECTION 1
Bread
Muffins Cheese Pudding Nutrients
Onions Corn Ice Cream
Salad
Steak Broccoli Fibre 65% Understanding the
Jam Rice Radishes
Oranges Chicken Fish DAIRY MEAT Protein 25% nutritional content
Carrots Eggs Beans
Peas drives decisions around
Ham Cereal
Milk Carbohydrates <1%
Pasta VEG. FRUIT what foods you eat
Potatoes Apples Peppers Fat 10%
Mushrooms Strawberries
Sweets Pastry Grapefruit GRAINS Sodium <1%
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [13]
SECTION 1
Equity factor research tends to be much more prevalent than that for other
asset classes, although many of these characteristics persist across other
asset classes as well. Certain factors have positive expected total returns
over the long run, driven by the powerful forces that shape risk preferences,
investor behaviour and market structure. Macro-economic risk factors capture
non-diversifiable risks that have exhibited positive expected return over longer
periods, compensating investors for bearing those risks. For example, holding
nominal bonds exposes the investor to the risk of inflation and the risk of real
rates rising. Within asset classes, there are also commonalities among securities
which we refer to as style factors. Certain (not all) style factors have historically
delivered a positive expected return over the long term as a result of a structural
impediment or behavioural anomaly that shapes the preferences of investors.
Risk factors – both macro and style – can be captured in transparent, rules-
based portfolios. Only active managers can successfully deliver true alpha, and
alpha is only (persistently) positive for managers with skill.
Alpha
Positive alpha requires } Security selection
manager skill } Country and industry selection
} Market and factor timing
Source: BlackRock Smart Beta: Defining the Opportunity and Solutions, February 2015.
[14] U N D E R S TA N D I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 1
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [15 ]
SECTION 1
Value Excess returns from stocks that Book to price, earnings to price, book
have low prices relative to their value, sales earnings, cash earnings,
fundamental value. net profit, dividends, cash flow.
Small size Excess returns of smaller firms Market capitalisation (full or free float).
(Small cap) (by market capitalisation) relative to
their larger counterparts.
Low volatility Excess returns from stocks with lower Standard deviation (1, 2 and 3 year),
than average volatility, beta and/or downside standard deviation, standard
idiosyncratic risk. deviation of idiosyncratic returns, beta.
Quality Excess returns from stocks that are Return on equity, earnings stability,
characterised by low debt, stable dividend growth stability, strength
earnings growth and other ‘quality’ of balance sheet, financial leverage,
metrics. accounting policies, strength of
management, accruals, cash flows.
Momentum Excess returns from stocks with strong Relative returns (3, 6 and 12 month),
past performance. historical alpha.
Source: MSCI.
[16] U N D E R S TA N D I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 1
MSCI factor indices are designed to provide a way for passive investors to
capture risk-adjusted return premia that previously have been available only
to active managers.
Our factor indices are based on our overall approach to index construction,
an approach we have developed and continuously tested over more than four
decades. An important consideration in constructing a factor index is the
trade-off between exposure and investability. High-exposure factor indices
such as MSCI Momentum Indices have higher investability constraints than
‘optimised’ factor indices such as MSCI Minimum Volatility Indices. Another
consideration is a factor index’s weighting scheme.
Investability
Because the largest institutional investors in the world use our indices, we
have embedded strong controls into our index construction process to ensure
that our indices are highly investable and liquid. Investability requirements
are applied at the overall company level – such as full company market
capitalisation represented by the aggregation of all eligible listed and unlisted
securities of a company – and at the individual security level, such as free
float-adjusted market capitalisation and liquidity measures.
Our framework for assessing investability has four components: (1) Tradability/
Liquidity, (2) Turnover/Cost of Replication, (3) Capacity and (4) Degree of Active
Tilt. The table overleaf defines each component and provides examples of ways
we measure it.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [17 ]
SECTION 1
Tradability/ How liquid the stocks are in the portfolio } Weighted average annualised traded
Liquidity and how tradable the portfolio is. value ratio
} Days to trade (relative to benchmark,
periodic rebalancing)
} Days to complete 95% of trading
(relative to benchmark, periodic
rebalancing)
Capacity For a given size fund, the percentage } Stock ownership (percentage of float
of a stock’s free float or full market market cap)
capitalisation the fund would own. } Stock ownership (percentage of full
market cap)
Source: MSCI.
Weighting scheme
The weighting scheme used in constructing an index determines its exposures.
The main objectives are to maximise exposure to the target factors, maximise
investability and reduce turnover (and hence rebalancing costs).
Factor indices can be classified into high exposure and high capacity. High
exposure indices are designed to maximise exposure to the target factor
while staying within MSCI’s investability guidelines. High capacity indices
are designed to allow very large investments into the index and to focus on
maximising investability and reducing turnover.
MSCI has high exposure and high capacity versions of each of its six single-factor
indices. High exposure indices are constructed by selecting a subset of stocks from
the universe, based on a ranking methodology (typically z scores). High capacity
indices use the entire universe but tilt the weights toward the target factor.
There are two possible weighting schemes for high capacity indices, and both
use the entire universe.
``The first is a ‘score only’ approach, which takes descriptors and calculates
the score of each stock based on the descriptors. The stock’s weight in the
index is then simply the stock score divided by the sum of the score of all
stocks. Our risk weighted indices follow this methodology.
[18] U N D E R S TA N D I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 1
``The second approach is ‘score times market cap’, where the market cap of
each stock is multiplied by its score. A stock’s weight is simply the market cap
times score divided by the sum of the market cap times the score of all stocks.
The ‘score only’ approach gives a higher exposure to the target factor but
can lead to significant active weights. In the case of the risk weighted index,
this would mean an exposure to small cap stocks because the descriptor is
variance. Compared to market cap, variance is more stable from stock to stock.
‘Score times market cap’ naturally takes the factor index closer to market cap,
increases exposure to large cap stocks (and hence systematic outperformance)
and also increases investability compared to ‘score only’.
The chart below illustrates the differences in the high capacity weighting
schemes, ‘score only’ and ‘score times market cap’.
2.0%
WEIGHT IN INDEX
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0 150 300 450 600 750 900 1,050 1,200 1,350 1,500 1,650
SECURITIES IN THE INDEX
Score only (Risk Weighted) Score x mcap (Low Volatility Tilt) Mcap (World Index)
Source: MSCI.
The x axis shows all stocks ranked in ascending order of market cap and the
y axis shows the weights in the respective indices. The dark blue line shows the
pure market cap index, MSCI World Index. The green line shows the ‘score times
market cap’ approach and the light blue line shows the ‘score only’ approach.
The difference between the ‘score only’ and ‘score times market cap’ is
significant and leads to some small cap exposure. It is important to note that
other factors will behave differently.
Conclusion
MSCI’s factor indices aim to provide a systematic risk-adjusted return
premium by achieving a specified high level of exposure to targeted factors.
MSCI currently offers factor indices that target six factors: Value, Small Size,
Low Volatility, High Yield, Quality and Momentum. Important considerations
in constructing these indices are the trade-off between exposure and
investability, and the index’s weighting scheme.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [19 ]
SECTION 1
250
1 20% 0.3
18 46% 2.7
200 24 121% 7.7
33 32% 3.7
150
44 49% 5.9
100
0
Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15
Dividend Multi Factor Equal Weight Minimum Volatility Single Factor Fixed Income
Source: BlackRock as of 30 September 2015. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
US 11.7 US 190.3
LatAm LatAm
0.2 0.8
& Iberia & Iberia
[2 0 ] U N D E R S TA N D I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION
SECTION 11
20BN 230BN
or investors
$ $ understand that
many active
2015 YTD smart beta ETP flows Total industry ETP flows exposures
can be easily
replicated with
smart beta ETFs,
the potential
Year-by-year smart beta launches globally out of all ETPs since 2012:
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [21]
SECTION 2: ASSESSING SMART BETA
SECTION 2
[2 4] A S S E S S I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 2
Clarify the } Investors should be clear what their } If investors have a specific long
investment goal desired outcome is when selecting term performance, risk or style-
a smart beta strategy. orientation objective, finding the
}Are they looking to enhance the exposure they are looking for will
returns of their existing portfolio be more easily achieved.
or are they looking to alter the
risk profile?
Verify the merit } Are the factors well-researched and } Investors must carefully evaluate
and investability can investment in the strategy lead the economic reasoning driving the
of the exposure to value creation? factor return and determine whether
} Does the product adequately capture the exposure is consistent with their
the desired factor exposure? investment beliefs.
Evaluate potential } Investors should be aware of how } Factors with economic logic typically
performance in different factors respond to different reward investors in the long term in
different market market scenarios. exchange for taking risks that can
regimes lead to periods of underperformance
versus the broad market.
Understand } What metrics are used to select } An in-depth understanding of the
the strategy’s the index constituents? methodology enables investors to
construction rules } Check the number and weightings understand whether the strategy is
of constituents. designed using diversified metrics.
} What is the rebalance frequency, } There is a positive relationship
turnover and liquidity profile of the between turnover and cost.
underlying index used?
Consider in the } How does this strategy fit with the } Factors should be integrated into a
context of your rest of your portfolio? portfolio in the context of the overall
existing portfolio } Within your current portfolio, what risk-return objectives.
strategy/assets should you consider } Understanding your existing
replacing with a factor product? factor exposure will enable you to
} Is your selected strategy to take identify factors that complement
the place of an existing active or your existing portfolio.
passive investment?
Compare the } Cost of the strategy being considered. } The cost paid for the product is a key
costs of a } Cost of other products available to drag on ongoing investment returns.
product with its the investor. } Understanding the relationship
competitors between cost and investment returns
is an important consideration when
investing in a smart beta product.
Source: BlackRock.
INVESTOR INSIGHT:
Know your benchmark, make detailed comparisons to standard market-cap
benchmarks and understand the behaviours in various scenarios.
Credit Suisse
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [2 5 ]
SECTION 2
INVESTOR To see this, consider a simple one factor model of equity returns where a
INSIGHT: stock’s return is proportionate to the market’s return. If the benchmark return
We take a very is represented by the market return, then managers may exceed the average
conservative return on the market only because they maintained a tilt to higher beta stocks
approach. over a period when the market as a whole rose. Such a static factor tilt could
We would be easily replicated with an ETF, meaning the manager should not receive high
compensation for such ‘outperformance’. A manager who successfully avoided
like to see a
downturns by moving to cash and conversely held the market in upturns,
thorough history.
however, would have genuine or true alpha accruing to their factor timing
Understanding it
abilities. The same is true of a manager who selected stocks that outperformed
is very important.
but otherwise maintained a beta of one to the market. That skill set deserves to
The critical be rewarded by investors.
question is:
An active manager’s return in excess of their benchmark can be broken down
‘Why should we
into three components:
get paid as an
investor and is ``Returns to static factor premia, such as a tilt to value or momentum stocks
it sustainable in ``Manager skill coming from factor timing
the future’? ``Manager skill coming from security selection
Dutch Private Bank Investors would ideally compensate a manager for timing and security
selection, recognising that static tilts can be gained at a low cost. But how
can we estimate these components? The decomposition of active returns
has traditionally been performed using regression analysis of returns, but
regression methods, while attractive in many dimensions, are potentially
misleading when factor weightings are dynamically changing. By contrast,
our approach here is based on actual holdings, which lets us identify the
covariation of changes in holdings with future excess returns – essentially
factor timing ability – and excess returns to stock selection.
1 Sharpe, William F., 1991. “The Arithmetic of Active Management,” The Financial Analysts Journal
Vol. 47(1), January/February, pages 7-9.
[2 6] A S S E S S I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 2
Source: BlackRock, Bloomberg, Barra, Morningstar, Thomas Reuters, 30 June 2005 to 30 June 2015. Past performance is not
a reliable indicator of future performance.
The diagram shows average active return attributions for the set of 1,267
US active style box mutual funds, with $3.3 trillion in assets, based on quarterly
holdings data for the 10-year period from 30 June 2005 to 30 June 2015.
Active returns are calculated with respect to style box benchmarks defined
by Morningstar.2
2 See: “Smart Beta and Mutual Fund Performance Attribution,” by A. Madhavan, R. Nestor,
S. Shores, and A. Sobczyk.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [2 7 ]
SECTION 2
Smart beta strategies, despite their transparent nature, are much less
susceptible to overcrowding and dilution by arbitrage than is commonly
believed. This is because:
INVESTOR Smart beta strategies are centred on factors that are thought to be deep,
INSIGHT: fundamental drivers of risk and return. By fundamental we mean that there are
Our main concern either behavioural or risk compensation drivers of return that are compelling
in applying from a logical, economic perspective and the persistence of which is supported
smart beta to our by the data over a long time frame and relating to diverse regions.
portfolio is the Smart beta strategies’ motivation by fundamental drivers makes them more
crowding effect. likely to endure when compared to active strategies, the focus of which is
Asian Sovereign superior information. The best example is value investing, which was well
Wealth Fund articulated by Graham & Dodd in 19343, but remains a key component of smart
beta strategies today. Value may succeed because investors chase ‘hot’ stocks
or because value drivers are correlated with macro-risks and hence yield
compensation for risk over time.
3 Graham, Benjamin, David Le Fevre Dodd, and Sidney Cottle. Security analysis. New York:
McGraw-Hill, 1934.
[2 8] A S S E S S I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 2
So, while generally robust to the impact of arbitrage and crowding, investors
nonetheless need to be alert to the possibility of potential pressure on factors
and monitor the health of factors, including:
Monitoring the relative valuation of factors can help quantify the degree to
which factor investors may have affected prices. It is important to look at
relative valuation measures to control for inherent variation in valuation across
factors, and relative to the broad market. Figure 13 shows the price-earnings
ratio of several single-factor ETFs relative to their own history and relative to
an S&P 500 ETF, based on three years of data ending 31 August 2015.
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Value US Minimum Volatility Momentum Quality Size
3 Standard Deviation 1 Standard Deviation Mean Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Aug 2015
Source: BlackRock and MSCI, as of 31 August 2015. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [2 9]
SECTION 2
0.5%
MARKET CAPITALISATION ANNUALISED FLOWS
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.3%
Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb 14 Aug 14 Feb 15 Aug 15
US Value Factor ETF US Minimum Volatility Factor ETF US Momentum Factor ETF
US Quality Factor ETF US Size Factor ETF
[3 0 ] A S S E S S I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 2
In both a short-term historical analysis and a long-run analysis using the MSCI
Macroeconomic and Asset Pricing Models, we found that MSCI factor indices
are different from each other with regard to their sensitivity to real economic
growth and inflation.
In addition, we found that although all factor returns have historically been
highly cyclical, their periods of underperformance have not been identical.
Some factors, such as Value, Momentum and Size have historically been
pro-cyclical, outperforming when economic growth and volatility are rising.
High Dividend, Quality and Minimum Volatility have been more defensive,
outperforming in a weak macro environment.
Momentum Quality
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [31]
SECTION 2
The correlation value illustrates the relationship between a specific factor and
the strength of the economy. For example, a correlation of -0.50 between the
Minimum Volatility Index and the CLI Index indicates that returns to Minimum
Volatility tend to be strong at times when the economy is weak. The defensive
nature of Minimum Volatility, Quality, High Dividend Yield and Risk Weighted
factor indices is clear in this analysis. However, the supposedly pro-cyclical
factor indices – Equal Weighted, Value Weighted and Momentum – are more
of a puzzle, with only the Equal Weighted index showing a meaningful positive
correlation to the CLI, and the sensitivity of the Momentum index actually
appearing to be negative.
We found that adding a second variable such as inflation (CPI) helps to explain
performance in these cyclical indices.
Source: MSCI. Average active returns relative to MSCI World from December 1975 to December 2013. Past performance is not a
reliable indicator of future performance.
*Based on official Index Levels from May 1988. Low Volatility Tilt Index prior to that date includes simulated data.
Looking first at the columns for economic growth, results are similar to our
previous analysis, except that Momentum is now ‘cyclical’, with higher active
returns when economic growth is increasing than when it is decreasing.
In the inflation columns, there is no large differentiation between the factor
indices’ responses.
[3 2] A S S E S S I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 2
Our principal finding is that the cash flows earned by different equity portfolios
can respond differently to persistent economic shocks, and that these
differences can emerge over longer time horizons.
The chart below classifies the MSCI World factor indices according to their
positive or negative sensitivity to real GDP growth and inflation over long
horizons, relative to the MSCI World Index.
Conclusion
The MSCI Asset Pricing Model shows that Equal Weighted, Momentum, Risk
Weighted, Value Weighted and Small Cap indices showed real GDP growth risk
relative to the capitalisation-weighted index in the long run. Thus, in terms of
sensitivity to economic growth, the long-term model-based analysis broadly
agrees with our historical short-term analysis.
Our frameworks and models have important implications for asset allocation
in developed market portfolios (the basis for this analysis), as shown in
Exhibit 4. Deviations away from a market cap portfolio could logically be
based on an investor’s expectations about macroeconomic growth and
tolerance for risk.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [3 3]
SECTION 3: IMPLEMENTING SMART BETA
SECTION 3
INVESTOR INSIGHT:
For us, one of the most exciting things about smart beta is that it is
helping us build the more exact allocation we want. It means you get
better risk-adjusted outcomes and you have fewer surprises in terms
of how your positions perform.
Credit Suisse
[3 6] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
MV + V + S S+ M + V
7.5%
M+S
MV + Q + V + S
MSCI World Mid-Cap Equal Weighted
Q+S+M
MSCI World Momentum
MV + Q + M MV + Q + S
Source: BlackRock and MSCI as of 30 September 2005 – 30 September 2015. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of
future performance.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [3 7 ]
SECTION 3
The table below highlights two portfolio allocations using MSCI World single
factor exposures. The risk parity portfolio weights the exposures such that
the marginal contribution of each of the exposures to the total volatility is
equal. It therefore makes sense that this portfolio has a higher allocation to
World Minimum Volatility and a lower allocation to World Value. In each case
the portfolios are rebalanced annually to static weights and are calculated in
US dollars.
Source: BlackRock. Risk weighted optimisation conducted 30 September 2005 – 30 September 2015.
[3 8] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
4% 18%
3%
12%
2%
6%
1%
0% 0%
1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs
World Five Factor Risk Weighted World Five Factor Equal Weighted MSCI World Index
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [3 9]
SECTION 3
[4 0 ] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
MSCI World Defensive Factor Portfolio Balanced Factor Portfolio Dynamic Factor Portfolio
World Minimum 33% World Size Factor 20% World Size Factor 33%
Volatility Factor
World Value Factor 33% World Minimum 20% World Momentum 33%
Volatility Factor Factor
World Quality Factor 33% World Momentum 20% World Value Factor 33%
Factor
S M A R T B E T A G U I D E [ 41 ]
SECTION 3
The resulting risk and return profiles of the portfolios over a ten-year
period are shown in Figure 20 and behave in line with the initial objectives.
Defensive Portfolio 1 enhances the return slightly versus the benchmark
but allows risk to be reduced on a rolling basis. Balanced Portfolio 2 takes
on a little more risk but performs better than Portfolio 1 on a cumulative
basis. Dynamic Portfolio 3, as was aimed for, achieves the strongest
outperformance but at times has a higher annualised volatility compared
to the benchmark.
300
CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE
250
200
150
100
50
Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15
MSCI World Defensive Factor Portfolio MSCI World Balanced Factor Portfolio
MSCI World Index MSCI World Dynamic Factor Portfolio
40%
12 MONTH ROLLING VOLATILITY
30%
20%
10%
0%
Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15
MSCI World Defensive Factor Portfolio MSCI World Balanced Factor Portfolio
MSCI World Index MSCI World Dynamic Factor Portfolio
Source: BlackRock, Markov Processes International (MPI), Morningstar, MSCI, Bloomberg. 5 January 2005 – 5 October 2015.
Frequency: Day. USD. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
[4 2] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
MSCI World Balanced Factor Portfolio Dynamic Factor Portfolio Defensive Factor Portfolio
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [4 3]
SECTION 3
FIGURE 22: ASSET ALLOCATIONS WITH AND WITHOUT THE MSCI WORLD
DIVERSIFIED MULTIPLE FACTOR INDEX
Sample: No Smart Beta Indices Sample: With Diversified Multiple Factor Index
Barclays Global Aggregate Index 40.0% Barclays Global Aggregate Index 40.0%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index 5.0% MSCI Emerging Markets Index 5.0%
MSCI World Index 55.0% MSCI World Diversified Multiple-Factor Index 55.0%
Source: BlackRock, MPI. 30 September 2005 - 30 September 2015. Analysis assumes quarterly rebalancing.
Sample portfolios are for illustrative purposes only, and do not represent a recommendation of any security or asset.
* Max drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline during a specific record period of an investment.
[4 4] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
Barclays Global Aggregate Index 40.0% Barclays Global Aggregate Index 40.0%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index 5.0% MSCI Emerging Markets Index 5.0%
MSCI World Index 55.0% MSCI World Diversified Multiple-Factor Index 35.0%
MSCI World Minimum Volatility Index 20.0%
Source: BlackRock, MPI. 30 September 2005 – 30 September 2015. Analysis assumes quarterly rebalancing. Sample
portfolios are for illustrative purposes only, and do not represent a recommendation of any security or asset.
* Max drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline during a specific record period of an investment.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [4 5 ]
SECTION 3
MOMENTUM QUALITY
VALUE
Typical behaviour QUALITY
of global
business cycle MOMENTUM
SIZE
VALUE
MOMENTUM
[4 6] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
Portfolio 1: Adding a size tilt (10%) to emphasise the nimble companies that
often perform well in the early stages of the business cycle.
Portfolio 2: Add a minimum volatility tilt (10%) in order to alter the portfolio’s
risk profile in anticipation of increased market volatility.
Portfolio 3: Add both size and minimum volatility tilts (20%) to seek to improve
returns while managing the total level of equity risk.
The results from this implementation can be seen in Figures 25 and 26.
The factor allocation between volatility and size is easily discernible from the
graphs in Figure 25, while the achieved outcome of single factor exposures is
highlighted in Figure 26.
MSCI World MSCI World - Size tilt MSCI World - Min Vol tilt MSCI World - Size and Min Vol tilt
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [47 ]
SECTION 3
6
CUMULATIVE EXCESS RETURN
VS MSCI WORLD INDEX
-2
Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15
Portfolio 1: Size tilt Portfolio 2: Min Vol tilt Portfolio 3: Size and Vol tilt
Source: BlackRock, MPI, Morningstar, MSCI, Bloomberg. 31 March 2004 – 30 September 2015. Frequency: Month. USD. Past
performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
[4 8] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
Using factor ETFs with exposure to low volatility stocks allowed us to neutralise
the unintended factor tilt (shown in Portfolio 2) and to keep the factor profile
of the portfolio in line with the MSCI World Index. From a diversification
perspective, Portfolio 2 broadly maintained the desired overweight to Japanese
equities but achieved a sector and regional profile which was closer to that of
the MSCI World Index.
15.00% 16.78%
19.74%
28.60%
24.31%
3.25%
2.63% 38.91%
45.78%
2.76%
2.24%
Growth Growth
Volatility Financial Volatility Financial
Leverage Leverage
Source: BlackRock, MSCI, data as of September 2015. This is not a recommendation to invest in any particular financial
product. No analysis of their suitability was conducted and no statement of opinion in relation to their suitability is provided.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [4 9]
SECTION 3
The current portfolio is allocated across three vehicles where two have a global
equity factor exposure – an active momentum manager and a global value
factor fund. The third one is a low-cost global equity indexed mandate.
Using factor ETFs enables investors to build the liquidity sleeve around the two
factor-based core allocations and the traditional mandate while minimising
transaction costs during rebalancing.
World M
% om
en
y3 tu
rla m
ve
Global Global
ET
FO
3% World
FO
Active Active
ET
Value
verl
Global Value Momentum Global Value Momentum
World Value
ay 2%
Fund 35% 2% World Fund 32%
+ Momentum =
y5
rla
W o rld E T F O ve
[ 5 0 ] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
Today, CLS manages nearly US$ 6BN for more than 35,000 investors.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [ 51]
SECTION 3
FIGURE 30: USAGE OF SMART BETA ETFs: MARCH 2012 VS MARCH 2015
Holdings as of 31 March 2012 Holdings as of 31 March 2015
``CLS’s smart beta ETF usage has nearly quadrupled since 2012 (as a percentage of holdings).
``Historically, CLS’s usage of smart beta ETFs consisted mainly of dividend-focused funds and
revenue-weighted products.
``CLS’s current smart beta usage expands to factors, equal weighting, dividend weighting, etc.
as ETFs that focus on exposure to individual factors become available.
[ 5 2] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
The risk and return of broad fixed income indices can be largely explained by
two risk factors: interest rate risk and credit risk. In addition, there are market-
structure phenomena in fixed income that create potential opportunities; bond
market investors often have set preferences regarding credit quality and term
structure, resulting in a segmented market.
Building upon this understanding of the nature of risk and return in fixed
income markets, this section examines how investors may be able to use
smart beta techniques to construct more efficient alternatives. The various
construction techniques can be grouped into three specific outcomes:
``better diversification
``improved risk-return profiles
``precision exposure to specific factors or market anomalies
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [ 5 3]
SECTION 3
Risk contribution over the last 5 years Return contribution over the last 5 years
3.5% 30%
3.0%
25%
2.5%
20%
2.0%
1.5% 15%
1.0%
10%
0.5%
5%
0.0%
-0.5% 0%
Barclays US Risk Balanced Barclays US Risk Balanced
Aggregate Index Strategy Aggregate Index Strategy
Source: Barclays and BlackRock. Charts based on the monthly returns of the Barclays US Aggregate Index and the
‘risk balanced strategy’ from January 2010 to March 2015. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Left chart: the risk is measured by 24 realised volatility (annualised) averaged over the last five years.
Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. One cannot invest directly in an index.
[ 5 4] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
Source: BlackRock and Barclays. Figures calculated over the period from December 1991 to
March 2015. Returns and volatility are annualised. Yield to maturity is as of March 2015. Index
performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. One cannot invest directly in an index.
Commodities
Commodities offer diversification benefits as well as some inflation protection.
Commodity exposure is mainly achieved through rolling positions on futures
contracts because of various complications of trading them physically. This
investment approach has an impact on the total return of the position, which
can be broken down into three components:
Roll return
+ +
Spot return Return associated with Collateral return
Change in the spot the process of moving Return obtained
price of the underlying (rolling) between one through the purchase of
commodity futures contract as it a risk-free investment
matures to the next
These are important aspects that should feed into index construction along
with various other considerations such as:
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [ 5 5 ]
SECTION 3
The first generation of commodity indices, such as S&P GSCI, as well as the
Bloomberg Commodity Index allocate to a broad set of commodities and
consider characteristics such as quantity of production as well as liquidity
of contracts for selection and weighting. While this approach provides broad
exposure to the commodities market, it leaves investors vulnerable to certain
important features such as negative roll yield because of the persistent
headwind that results from rolling future contracts. Second generation indices
include specific features that reduce the impact of negative roll yield, look
to capture wider futures curve exposure via investments across multiple
maturities, use modified rolling windows and modified contract schedules
as well as capture seasonality effects (certain commodities exhibit strong
seasonality due to supply and demand dynamics).
1200
INDEX LEVELS (REBASED TO 100)
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan 93 Jul 95 Jan 98 Jul 00 Jan 03 Jul 05 Jan 08 Jul 10 Jan 13 Jul 15
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31 January 1991 to 31 July 2015. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
* Max drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline during a specific period of an investment.
[ 5 6] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
SECTION 3
Smart beta research will continue to develop, seeking more dynamic ways to
isolate risk factors. While equity smart beta currently captures the majority
of assets, smart beta across other asset classes may prove the most ground-
breaking developments in years to come.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [ 5 7 ]
SECTION 3
[ 5 8] I M P L E M E N T I N G S M A R T B E TA
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [ 5 9]
Acknowledgements
BlackRock would like to thank those who have generously shared their insights
for this guide:
MSCI Inc.
MSCI Inc. is a leading provider of investment decision support tools to investors
globally, including asset managers, banks, hedge funds and pension funds.
MSCI products and services include indices, portfolio risk and performance
analytics, and ESG data and research. MSCI is headquartered in New York,
with research and commercial offices around the world.
Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse Multi Asset Class Solutions (MACS) develops and implements
investment allocation strategies across asset classes for both private
and institutional clients. Credit Suisse’s solutions can combine traditional
investments, such as cash, bonds and equities, with non-traditional alternative
investments to meet clients’ needs. The product range includes funds and
certificates to discretionary mandates, covering retail clients to ultra-high
net worth individuals.
[60] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Dutch Private Bank
A modern Dutch Private Bank, internationally present and locally involved with
a leading position in Europe and a solid presence in Asia.
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E [61]
S M A R T B E TA G U I D E
SECTION 1
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S M A R T B E TA G U I D E