Resilience to climate change

in Patagonia, Argentina:
Evidence of impact and prospects for adaptation in natural resource sectors

Rodrigo José Roveta

Forest Ecology and Management Masters Student
Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg
Sundgauallee 12-06-22
79110 Freiburg im Breisgau – Germany
[email protected]

Dirección General de Bosques y Parques del Chubut – Argentina

25 de Mayo 891, (9200) Esquel, Chubut - Argentina
Table of contents

Executive summary.................................................................................................. 3

Acknowledgments.................................................................................................... 4

Acronyms .................................................................................................................. 5

1. Introduction........................................................................................................... 6
1.1 Climate in Western Chubut Province .............................................................................9
1.2 Natural resource use in the study area ........................................................................10
1.3 The social context in Chubut Province .........................................................................13
1.4 Key natural resource institutions in the study area.......................................................14

2. Changes in Climate ............................................................................................ 17

2.1 Differential impacts along an East-West gradient ........................................................17
2.2 Future projections of climate change in the study area ................................................19

3. Changes in Resources ....................................................................................... 20

3.1 Changes in patterns of livestock farming and downstream agriculture ........................21
3.2 Changes in the incidence of forest fire .........................................................................22
3.3 Changing patterns of forest plantation .........................................................................23

4. Adaptations in resource management.............................................................. 25

4.1 Adaptations to livestock................................................................................................25
4.2 Adaptations in forestry..................................................................................................25
4.3 Adaptation involving ecosystem services .....................................................................27

5. Roles of local Institutions .................................................................................. 27

5.1 The role of institutions governing livestock...................................................................27
5.2 The role of institutions governing forest resources.......................................................28
5.3 General requirements for better data ...........................................................................28

6. Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 29

7. References .......................................................................................................... 30

Annex 1. Map of the study area............................................................................. 33

Annex 2. Trends in annual precipitation and mean temperatures for two

stations in the study area ...................................................................................... 34

2
Executive summary

This study aims to broaden understanding of climate change and its impacts within Argentina
– looking at evidence of existing change and future projections, with practical examples of
existing or potential adaptation. Much focus on climate change in Argentina has been in the
North, where impacts are more noticeable. But this study shows how changes in the South,
in the Patagonian province of Chubut, are also likely to be significant.

Increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in Northwest Chubut are shifting the patterns
of agricultural viability. Predominant patterns of cattle and sheep farming are likely to face
increasing shortages of dry season grazing. Natural forests and existing and planned
plantations are also likely to face increasing aridity – exacerbating the risk of dieback, forest
fires and pest and disease outbreaks. Water shortage is likely to become an increasingly
pressing concern – especially with the heavy reliance on hydropower, major development
plans for irrigated agriculture and forestry, heavy technological demands from the
petrochemical industry for water pressure to drive oil extraction, and the importance of
aquatic environments for regional tourism.

Adaptation to climate change in Chubut province is already occurring – overseen primarily by

state institutions governing agriculture, forestland, energy production and tourism. But
adaptation so far has been rather disjointed and ad hoc. Livestock farmers of their own
volition have been reducing stocking densities in the wake of recent drought events. Forestry
agencies have implemented new protocols to monitor fire and pest and disease outbreaks.
Forest plantations have been established mostly to improve or diversify livelihoods – but in
some cases also to mitigate climate change itself.

A more coordinated approach may be necessary in which the climatic risk of different forms
of agriculture and forestry are specifically addressed. Land use planning needs better to take
into account the environmental thresholds of different types of agriculture or forestland use –
with incentives that induce greater diversity and consequent resilience. More emphasis is
also needed on insurance against different types of climate related emergency in agriculture
and forestry. The management of water is one area in which an integrated approach is
urgently needed. Increasing demands on the resource from a range of sectors may result in
conflict unless joint decision making procedures are introduced.

The study concludes by noting that while climate change in the South of Argentina has had
less severe impacts to date – this should not be grounds for complacency. Rather it should
be seen as an opportunity to plan for the future and build institutional capacity and policy
coherence that better protects the population from inevitable climate change.

3
Acknowledgments

Within the Masters Programme on Forest Ecology and Management at Freiburg University
(Freiburg, Germany), students must carry out a practical work through an internship. This
allows students not only to acquire or improve their practical skills, but also to start building a
professional network. In order to achieve these aims the University gives each student
institutional support. In this context I particularly want to thank to Prof. Dr. Jürgen Bauhus
(Programme Director), Esther Muschelknautz (Programme Coordinator) and the International
Office for their assist, as well as my tutor Benno Pockorny and Roberto Scoz for their help
and advice. I want to thank to Robert Elsworth for his comments on my first draft.

I would like to express my gratitude to the International Institute for Environment and
development (IIED) for putting its facilities at my disposal and giving me this exceptional
opportunity to do an internship at its Edinburgh Office. Thanks to James Mayers for his
interest, and giving me the opportunity of collaborate in the project “Forest and Social
Resilience to Climate Change” of which the present work forms part. I want to express
sincere thanks to Marie Jaecky for her continual assistance and friendship in the daily work.
Special thanks go Duncan Macqueen for his active and excellent supervision, comments,
drafts reviews, and continual availability to help me throughout this research. I want to thank
Sonja Vermeulen for her comments and suggestions on the final draft. Thanks to all the
Edinburgh staff for making this internship a satisfying period with a friendly working
atmosphere. I am deeply indebted to all of you.

It is my pleasure to thank the AlβAN Programme (European Union Programme of High Level
Scholarships for Latin America) for its economic support through which I was able to afford
this postgraduate study.

I would like to acknowledge to the Chubut Forest Service in Argentina (DGByP) for its
institutional support in order to make this specialization a reality.

During this research, intensive collaboration was required with contacts in Argentina. I would
like to express to all of them my most sincere gratitude. Many thanks to:

• CENPAT, Juan Carlos Labraga;

• CIEFAP, Miguel Davel, Pedro Pantenius and Ana Valtriani;
• DGByP, Vivian Postler, Gustavo Rôo, Silvia Featherston, Marcela Hartel, Patricia
Ríos, Matías Jaime, Carlos Ríos, Fabricio Caneo and Tomas Withington;
• DGAyG, Nidia Monsalbe;
• INTA, Nidia Hansen, Ivana Amico and Teresa Schinelli Casares;
• PNMF, Fernando Epele and María del Carmen Dentoni;
• SMN (Servicio Metereológico Nacional);
• National University of Patagonia, Juan Enricci; and
• Local producers, Ricardo Acinas, Paula Gonzalo (SRE), H. Jones, J. Nuñez and J.
Simeoni.

4
Acronyms

AACLA Asociación de Apicultores de la Comarca Los Alerces

ALAPA Asociación Los Andes Productores Agropecuarios
APLA Asociación Productores Los Alerces
APN Administración de Parques Nacionales
CIEFAP Centro de Investigación y Extensión Forestal Andino Patagonico
CNPV Censo Nacional de Población, Hogares y Viviendas
CNE Censo Nacional Económico
CREs Certified Emission Reductions Credits
DCC Dirección de Cambio Climático (Secretaría de Ambiente y Desarrollo
Sustantable)
DGAyG Dirección General de Agricultura y Ganadería de Chubut
DGARH Dirección General de Administración de Recursos Hídricos
DGByP Dirección General de Bosques y Parques del Chubut
DGEyC Dirección General de Estadísticas y Censos de Chubut
EIAs Environment Impact Assessments
FTDT Fundación Torcuato Di Tella
HF Hidroeléctrica Futaleufú
IAC Instituto Autárquico de Colonización y Fomento Rural, Chubut
INTA Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
INTA EEA Esquel Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria - Estación Experimental
Agroforestal Esquel
ITDT Instituto Torcuato Di Tella
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change
JPF Japan Carbon Finance Foundation
MAyCDS Ministerio de Ambiente y Control del Desarrollo Sustenatable, Chubut
PNMF Plan Nacional de Manejo del Fuego (Secretaría de Ambiente y
Desarrollo Sustantable)
PSA Programa Social Agropecuario
SAGPyA Secretaría de Agricultura, Ganadería, Pesca y Alimentos, Argentina
SAyDS Secretaría de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustantable
SCPL Sociedad Cooperativa Popular Limitada (Comodoro Rivadavia –
Chubut)
SEP Sistema Estadístico Provincial – Chubut
SISCOM Sistema de Información de Comunas y Municipios
SMN Servicio Metereológico Nacional
SER Sociedad Rural Esquel
UMSEF Unidad de Manejo del Sistema de Evaluación Forestal Secretaría de
Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustantable)

5
1. Introduction

Climate change is already affecting many natural systems around the world. Increases in
temperature, changes in precipitation patterns, more frequent extreme events such as floods
and droughts are well-documented examples (IPCC, 2007). In Latin America a mean
warming to the end of the century is expected of 1 to 6ºC (depending on the model
considered). This will almost certainly lead to an increase in species extinctions, a rise in the
numbers of people experiencing problems with water supply and a decrease of yields for
very important crops (Magrin et al., 2007). Argentina is not exempt from these changes.
Unusual extreme whether events and changes in natural systems have already been
reported, especially in the North of the country. For instance, there is a clear evidence of
changes in the precipitation pattern in the Central North area of the country. Together with
improvements in technology, this has led to a displacement of agriculture land towards the
West (Barros and Bejarán, 2005). This agricultural expansion has been the main cause of
large scale deforestation processes (1,975,136 ha has been converted between 1998-2006;
UMSEF, 2007). The aim of this report is to have a look at the local situation in the southern
part of the country in order to see whether climate change is as important an issue as in the
North. The role that local institutions are playing in this context is also taken into account.

Argentina has signed the Climate Change Convention in 1992 (ratified by 1994) and the
Kyoto protocol in 1998 (ratified by 2001). At national level, the Climate Change Office (DCC)
has been created under the Secretary for Environment and Sustainable Development
(SAyDS). By October 8th Argentina had presented its 2nd National Communication.

Patagonia is located in the Southern part of Argentina and it represents approximately one
third of the country’s continental surface. It includes five provinces (Neuquén, Río Negro,
Chubut, Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego), with a total population of 1,750,000 inhabitants
over its 900,000 km2. With an average of 2,2 inhabitants per square kilometre, most of whom
are in urban settlements (93%, FTDT and ITDT, 2006) – population is sparse. Climate
change has been influencing the area in recent decades, but interviews found little in-depth
understanding within the general population of those effects.

In Patagonia, three different kinds of ecological region are found: the Patagonian Steppe, the
Monte and the sub-Antarctic Forest. The Andes Mountains in the West and the Patagonian
Steppe in the East delimit the borders of the temperate forest area. It is 2,200 km long and a
maximum of 75 km in width. Sub-Antarctic forest is defined by climatic conditions
(temperature and precipitation patterns) in combination with soil characteristics. The most
representative species in terms of cover are the Nothofagus. There are also species of
conifers in the region; the four most representative ones are endemic of Argentina and Chile.
They are pehúen (Araucaria araucana), ciprés de la cordillera (Austrocedrus chilensis),
ciprés de las guaitecas (Pilgerodendrum uviferum), and lahúan or alerce (Fitzroya
cupressoides), which can live until 3,000 years reaching up to 50 m of height. A. araucana,
P. uviferum and F. cupressoides are protected under CITES convention (SAyDS, 2003).

6
Photo 1. Natural Sub-Antarctic Forest in Patagonia

The present case study is focused on the Central Northwest part of Patagonia, specifically
within the sub-Antarctic Forest and the potential forestland1 of Chubut Province (Figure 1,
Annex I). It is located between latitudes 42º - 46º South and longitudes 70º 54’ – 72º 10’
West, with a total land area of 23,700 Km2 (Table 1). The altitude in Esquel Airport is 797
masl. In Chubut, a natural sub-Antarctic forest species known as lenga (Notofagus pumilio)
covers most of the higher altitude watersheds and is the most important species in terms of
forest management. At middle altitudes natural forests include N. dombeyi and A. chilensis,
and finally foothills and valleys are occupied by N. antarctica. Towards East dry steppe
grassland is the main landscape component (Figure 2, and see Annex I).

1
It is land suitable for establishment of (mainly) pine plantations.

7
Figure 1. General location of the study area. In zoom it is showed Patagonia.

Nothofagus pumilio (low sized form)

N. pumilio (high forest)

N. dombeyi

Austrocedrus chilensis

N. antarctica
Shrubs species

Figure 2. Schematic diagram showing the main vegetation types in a West-East transect.

8
Table 1. Natural and exotic forest covers in the study area by jurisdiction. In addition
the available land suitable for afforestation projects is presented.

Kind of cover Area (ha) Source of data

Native Forests (under provincial jurisdiction) 726,000 DGByP, 2007a
Native Forests (under national jurisdiction) 155,453 SAyDS, 2005
Forest Plantations 24,000
Land available for afforestation 311,000
DGByP, 2007a
Land available for afforestation with irrigation requirements (this could 400,000
imply an area larger than the study case)

1.1 Climate in Western Chubut Province

The Andes Mountains have a key role in determining the climate of the area by forming a
barrier to the wet winds (westerlies) coming from the Pacific Ocean. Most of the rainfall is
discharged in the Chilean side of the mountains, and then a dryer mass of air flows to the
Argentinean regions. This pattern leads to a strong West-East gradient in the precipitation
pattern (Paruelo et al., 1998), where over the Andes Mountains the rainfall reaches more
than 1,000 millimetres annually (up to 3000 in some places) and just 100 km away to the
East it can be 200 mm (Barros et al., 1980). Figure 2 illustrates differences between
meteorological stations set only 50km apart from West to East.

200 16
14
150 12
10 Precipitation (mm)
100 8
6 Mean temperature ºC
50 4
2
0 0
February
January

November
May
March

December
June

September

October
July
April

August

200 16
14
150 12
10 Precipitation (mm)
100 8
6 Mean temperature ºC
50 4
2
0 0
September

November

December
June
May

July
March
January

October
February

April

August

Figure 3. Climatograms for two different stations in the area. Top is Aldea Escolar and
bottom is Esquel, which is located approximately 50 km towards the East. (Bars equal
precipitation and line equals temperature). Aldea Escolar showed medium temperature of 9.7
ºC and a mean of 1018 mm per year from 1980-2006 (Source of data: Campo Experimental
Trevelin, INTA EEA Esquel, 2007). Esquel showed medium temperature of 8.3 ºC and a
mean of 508 mm per year throughout the period 1961-2006 (Source of data: SMN, 2007b).
This comparison shows the characteristic strong gradient in the precipitation patterns.

9
Precipitation events are concentrated in winter and autumn (73% of the total rainfalls,
Jobbágy et al., 1995), causing a significant water deficit in summer (see Figure 3). With
regard to temperature, the area can be defined as a cool temperate region (Paruelo et al.,
1998), with mean temperatures from 8 up to 10 ºC (SMN, 2007a, Table 2). The predominant
westerlies affecting the area throughout the year have a chill factor, causing an average
decrease of 4,2 ºC in the temperature perceived (Paruelo et al., 1998).

Table 2. Extremes temperatures (by season) observed at Esquel’s meteorological

station (period 1961-1990). Source of data: SMN2, 2007c.

Temperatures Summer Autumn Winter Spring

Maximum (ºC) 33,8 31,3 21,2 29,9
Minimum (ºC) -5,4 -12,5 -22,1 -14,8

1.2 Natural resource use in the study area

Livestock is the most important local land use. Grass production for cattle feed is the main
crop. Some vegetables are cultivated within the North area (mainly for local consumption) as
well as fruit crops, especially cherry and berries (such as blackberry and strawberry). Cattle
farming dominates the areas with better grasses and water availability; sheep are used for
meat and wool production in drier areas not at all suitable for cattle. A common practise is to
graze the cattle/sheep inside the forest; this extensive livestock farming has been practiced
over the last 120 years. There are two main seasons: cattle are transported to warmer
valleys during winter and to the forest for grazing in summer. In some cases, agroforestry
systems have been established to augment summer grazing. Those are mainly located in
areas with N. antarctica natural forests, where forests are used for firewood and rural timber
products as well as for livestock protection and grazing.

2
Available at: http://www.smn.gov.ar/?mod=clima&id=30&provincia=Chubut&ciudad=Esquel

10
Photo 2. Livestock grazing in natural forests during the summer

Natural forests are also an important source of wood for local sawmills (which usually work at
small size scales) and firewood as well as other products for rural communities. Firewood is
the main product in terms of volume produced per year, followed by logs for use in sawmills
(Figure 4). Firewood is mainly used for heating and cooking in rural areas. However a
decrease in this consumption is expected because of the recent investments on the natural
gas network, which is being expanded to rural areas.

11
Photo 3. Wood processed by local sawmills

In drier lands without natural forests, afforestation has been promoted3. Ponderosa pine
(Pinus ponderosa) is the main species planted. The climatic limit of these plantations is given
by the isohyet of 400 annual millimetres. Poplars and willows have also been planted,
primarily used for windbreaks as well as river’s channel protection. The establishment of
poplar plantations usually requires water supply through irrigation.

Ecosystem services such as the production of water for human consumption, recreation,
irrigation, hydropower, and industrial use play a very important role in the region. All water
sources for larger urban settlements (located on the Atlantic Ocean coast, 700 km eastward)
come from these forested catchments. Irrigated agriculture and forest plantations are
growing rapidly in downstream areas. For instance, in 2006 a new irrigation system was
inaugurated in the “16 de Octubre” valley (where Trevelin town is based), it makes available
2,000 more ha for agriculture purposes. Energy for both local and distant urban settlements
is predominantly based on hydropower (for example the Futaleufú Hydropower plant). New
extraction technology in the petrochemical industry requires large volumes of water to pump
out oil reserves (i.e. Repsol YPF company takes water directly from Senguerr River in South
of the province –outside the study area).

Another important ecosystem service is landscape beauty, which is the main source of
increasing tourism development in the region. Within some parts of the region tourism is a
very important source of income. There are two National Parks in the area (Los Alerces NP

3
In former times forest plantations also where done by replacing native forests. That policy is no longer applied in
Chubut.

12
and Lago Puelo NP) that in addition of their importance for conservations goals are playing a
key role attracting visitors to the region.

70
60
50
40 Firewood
30 Logs

20
10
0
1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006
Figure 4. Trend in volume (thousands of m³) for Chubut’s forest products for the
period 1990-2006. Firewood has been converted to solid volume by applying a conversion
factor of 0.6. Source of data: DGEyC, 2007.

1.3 The social context in Chubut Province

The origin of the current population of Chubut is derived from immigrants coming from within
Argentina as well as from other countries. The Welsh colony established in 1865 on the
seacoast was later expanded to the mountains, and has been a key factor in the region’s
development. In 2000, births occurring in Chubut accounted for 70% of the population’s
origin. Within this province, 89.5% of the population live in urban settlements. According to
recent projections done by the Government, the total population in the study area is around
75,500 inhabitants4; where the main city is Esquel, followed by Trevelin and Lago Puelo
(31,200; 7,000 and 5,250 inhabitants respectively). There are some dispersed populations in
the region (5% of the total). The remaining population is distributed in several small towns
(Table 3). Indigenous people make up 1.9% of the total inhabitants in the study area.
However, this population represents 34.8% of the total indigenous people living in the
province – most of whom now live in urban settlements (SEP, 2007).

In terms of the provincial economy, the gross geographic product (GGP) was
ARS511,807,540 by 2006 (26,207 ARS per inhabitant), this represents around 2% of the
gross national production (GNP). Approximately 70% of the income is from commercial
products, whereas 30% is from services. The most important sources of provincial income
are petrol extraction (48% including mines) and manufacturing (9,03%). Agriculture,
livestock, forestry, hunting and fishing all together represent 6,97% of the GGP (DGEyC,
2007c).

4
It implies an area larger than the study area, because of the data aggregation in the census. Projections were
done until June 2007, where the whole province reaches 455,600 inhabitants. Source of data: DGEyC, 2007b.
5
1 ARS (Argentina Pesos) equals to 0,247 EUR (Euro) by 31/12/06. Then the GGP in Chubut was € 2,916,462 in
2006.

13
Table 3. Poverty-related indicators for different settlements across the study area
(from North to South). In education the codes mean: A: without; B: primary; C: secondary;
D: university; E: illiteracy. In employment the codes mean: P: primary; S: secondary; T:
tertiary. Primary includes agriculture, livestock, silviculture, hunting and fishing as well as
mines (including petrol and natural gas extraction). Secondary includes manufacturing,
electricity, natural gas, water and construction industries. Tertiary includes trade, restaurants
and hotels, transport, storage, financial services, property businesses, community, social and
personal services (including different governmental agencies).

People
Source of
below Population
Access to employment by
Settlement the Education without health
(Source: CNPV, drinking water economic sector
poverty (Source: CNPV, (Source: CNPV, 2001; cited cover
2001; cited by (Source: CNPV, (urban assessment)
threshold 2001; cited by by SISCOM, 2007) (Source: CNE
SISCOM, 2007) 2001; cited by
(Source: SISCOM, 2007) 2004/2005; cited by
SISCOM, SISCOM, 2007)
SISCOM, 2007)
2007)
Lago Puelo 19,4% 96,4% A: 19,27% 61,86% P: 2,53%
(4,046 B: 46,11% S: 3,86%
inhabitants) C: 22,96% T: 93,62%
D: 11,66%
E: 2,61%
Cholila (1,981 34,67% 100% A: 39,64% 66,63% S: 2,46%
inhabitants) B: 44,92% T: 97,54%
C: 10,95%
D: 4,49%
E: 5,62%
Esquel 25,71 99,2% A: 21,09% 42,68% P: 0,33%
(28,486 B: 49,02% S: 10,80%
inhabitants) C: 21,60% T: 88,87%
D: 8,29%
E: 3,74%
Corcovado 33,11% 100% A: 44,59% 57% P: 1,12%
(1,644 B: 46,53% T: 98,88%
inhabitants) C: 5,82%
D: 3,06%
E: 7,44%
Río Pico 28,44% 100% A: 43,45% 65,30% S: 9,21%
(1,386 B: 45,32% T: 90,79%
inhabitants) C: 8,14%
D: 3,08%
E: 7,28%
Río Senguerr 21,32% 100% A: 37,12% 47,94% No available data
(1,700 B: 49,34%
inhabitants) C: 9,59%
D: 3,95%
E: 7,24%

1.4 Key natural resource institutions in the study area

Several key natural resource institutions are working in the area (Table 4). Their work is
dominated by current priorities in the region, but each of them has some responsibility for
likely areas of impact of climate change. Actions in line with other aims are likely to be
increasingly affected by adaptation to climate change. For example, improving forest
management practices (specially in the proximity of water bodies), and designing risk free
forest plantations may require an increasing understanding of climate change. Farmers can
find advice on forestry, livestock and agriculture within the range of local institutions – and
such advice may also increasingly respond to climatic threats. Existing support institutions

14
are mainly governmental agencies and research institutions. In recent years, some projects
have been developed related to CO2 sequestration, but mainly with the aim of enticing forest
investors to the area. At the moment, several forest restoration projects have been co-
financed by funds coming from external investors.

Several conflicts related to forestland ownership have occurred since the province was
created in 1955. In Chubut’s first Constitution, the forest were declared as State property.
Some years later some exceptions were acknowledged. Currently, four types of land rights
can be found: national titles (they are properties conceded before the province was created);
provincial titles (land ownership, but with forests belonging to the State); temporal tenure
(with three different levels, the higher one is a previous step in order to obtain a title) and
finally State ownership lands. The administration of the land belongs to the Land
Colonization Commission (IAC) whereas the Forest Service (DGByP) governs forest
management. This overlapping in terms of jurisdiction between two institutions (with their
different aims, Table 4) has led to the generation of conflicts among forest companies and
farmers. Such conflicts may grow if climate change affects the economic viability of different
land uses.

15
Table 4. Main natural resources related institutions/organizations based in the area
and short description of them.

Institution/Organization Description

Agriculture and Livestock Office It is based in Rawson (Chubut’s capital). Addressing the
(DGAyG) development of the agricultural and livestock sector of the province.
Andean Patagonian Forest It is a regional institution based in Esquel, working mainly in
Research and Extension Centre forestry related fields and spreading that knowledge in the area.
(CIEFAP)
Forest Service (DGByP) The main office is located in Esquel. It is in charge of protecting
forest resources, defining and controlling management practices as
well as promoting the generation of new forests through
afforestation. Provincial protected areas belong to this institution.
An advisory board (with key stakeholders involved) was created as
model of conflict management in one of these protected areas.
Futaleufú Hydropower Plant It is a private ownership company located within “Los Alerces”
(HF) National Park (Southeast border). It deliveries energy to an
aluminium factory based on the seacoast as well as several cities
and towns in Chubut.
Land Colonization Commission It was created with the aim of promoting the land occupation
(IAC) through the Chubut’s territory, and one of its attributions is the
determination of the land ownership situation. Livestock has been
central to its activities.
Ministry for the Environment It is based in Rawson and addresses environment management
(MAyCDS) towards sustainable practices. EIAs are used as a tool in the
decision making process. Public consultancy is a key element of
these EIAs.
National Institute for Agricultural It is a national research and extension agency that has a close
Technology (INTA) contact with local farmers, working in agriculture, livestock,
agroforestry and forestry to improve management practices as well
as extend techniques.
Nationals Parks Authority (APN) It is the national authority in terms of nature conservation. In
Chubut there are two National Parks (Annex I), those jurisdictions
belong to the Nation. There are some old settlers in the area, that
conserve the land rights but their activities are under strict Park
rules.
Social Agricultural Programme It is a national programme that belongs to the Agriculture,
(PSA) Livestock, Fishing and Food Secretariat (SAGPyA). It has an office
in Esquel, and works with small farmers promoting their
organization. In this way PSA is looking to help small farmers to be
able to better represent themselves in the future.
Rural Society of Esquel It is one traditional entity in Argentina that has an important voice
(Sociedad Rural Esquel) when talking about agriculture and livestock production. Its branch
in the study area shows more importance in livestock production.
Water Office (DGARH) It is based in Rawson. In charge of water management in the
province, regulating its use and every development that could
affect the public use of this resource. The institution is carrying out
a river monitoring system. In 2006, four watersheds advisory
boards were formed. Key stakeholders, representing governmental
agencies as well as private parties, are part of those boards.
Other Organizations Some farmers associations are present in the area. They were
formed for specific aims. For example there exist: the “Los Alerces”
Farmer Association (APLA); the Honey Producers Association
(AACLA); the “Los Andes” Farmer Association (ALAPA), which
mainly represents fruit’s producers; and small farmer groups
formed through PSA projects.

16
2. Changes in Climate

An important source of information for this study has been the Second National Report on
Climate Change, where is included a special information briefing focused on Patagonia
(FTDT and ITDT, 2006). Some key points extracted from that report include the following:

• In the Northwest of Chubut there is a negative trend in the annual precipitation

pattern, with high variability within decades. The majority of this precipitation
corresponds with the winter season, when the biggest drop in rainfall has been
observed. For instance in Esquel the trend observed was –4 mm/decade (period
1967-1998, values with non statistical significance)6.

• A negative trend in frequency of extreme rainfall events has been observed. This
would be related to the negative trend in annual precipitation7.

• Near Esquel changes in temperature have been determined from the year 1961 to
2000. Each ten years the medium annual temperature rose by 0,20 ºC, whereas for
summer time that increment was 0,33 ºC.

• The 0ºC isotherm has been going up in the region. This has directly resulted in glacial
melting and lower recharge of snow. Glaciers are receding within the latitudes of 37
to 55 South (with some exceptions).

2.1 Differential impacts along an East-West gradient

As mentioned above, changes in precipitation patterns are clearest in the study area (Annex
II). In the drier Eastern meteorological station of Esquel a decrease of 86 mm in the mean
winter precipitation (April – September) has been observed when comparing the period
1961-1983 with 1984-2006 one (Figure 5). In the wetter western meteorological station of
Aldea Escolar the pattern observed is not the same (Figure 4). It appears that the winter
rains are somewhat delayed but occur over a longer period of time. Unfortunately there is not
a continuous series of data earlier than the 1980s for this second meteorological station.
These trends are borne out by the observations of several interviewees located in Western
and Eastern areas of Chubut (see Box 1).

6
This trend is valid for the whole Norwest Andes region (within Latitudes of 37 to 45 South), and also similar
patterns have been observed in the Chilean side. However the situation is different when considering other areas
of Patagonia.
7
The contrary has been observed on the Atlantic coast of Chubut Province.

17
 Aldea Escolar
200
180
160
140 period
Precipitation (mm)

120 1980-
1993
100
80
60
40
period
20 1994-
0 2006

November

December
January

September
March
February

August
May
April

June

July

October
Esquel
200
180
160
140 Period
120 1961-
1983
Precipitation (mm)

100
80
60
40
Period
20 1984-
0 2006
January

August
February

July
May
April

December
October

November
September
June
March

Figure 5. (Top) Trend observed of mean precipitation throughout the year for two different
periods in Aldea Escolar. Source of data: Campo Experimental Trevelin, INTA EEA Esquel,
2007. (Bottom) Similar trend obtained for Esquel. (Notice that the periods are different).
Source of data: SMN, 2007b.

18
Box 1. Perception of local interviewees relating to climate change in Chubut Province
Northwest - J. Nuñez is an organic farmer settled in Lago Puelo since 20 years (Northwest
part of the study area). His feeling is that at the moment the climate is windier, colder and
with longer winters that in the past.
Northeast - J. Simeoni is a farmer settled in Paso del Sapo since 23 years (towards
Northeast of the study area). He said that the rainfalls are less frequent as well as less
intense. In addition he noticed that this year the winter was drier and colder.
P. Gonzalo is the president of Esquel Rural Society and has lived in Esquel for 50 years. She
think that 20-30 years ago the winter season used to be stronger and longer that nowadays.
Also she feels a less clear seasonality. In her words “…a long time ago, strong snow storms
occurred in winter that led in floods in spring time. Nowadays summers are drier and windy,
and it is more common to see thunderstorms, a phenomenon that was not often seen before.
H. Jones (69) is a small cattle farmer settled near Trevelin since he was born. He shows
scepticism when talking about climate change; his perception is that we are faced with
cyclical periods. As well as P. Gonzalo, he sees less clear seasonality, “in the past, the
summer was warmer and it lasted three months”. He made the following statement: “perhaps
people have the perception that past winters were stronger, but the thing is that there was a
change in the living standard of rural people (e.g. transportation, telephone) that makes
current winters seem not as strong as they used to be”.
Southwest - R. Acinas is a cattle farmer and forest producer settled in Aldea Beleiro
(approximately 90 km Southwest from Río Senguerr) for 42 years. He said that over the last
15-20 years a delay in seasonality is occurring. “Years ago, in May there was always snow.
Nowadays the snow comes in July until October, and we never know when”. In addition he
feels that there may be less precipitation (although not too much less). Finally, he said that
summers are not warm as it used to be, nowadays it is cooler and less stable.

2.2 Future projections of climate change in the study area

Future projections for the area show that temperature will increase by 0.5 ºC by 2020 and it
will rise, in the worse case, up to 2.4 ºC by 2080 (Figure 5). According to FTDT and ITDT
(2006), the precipitation modelling appears to be more complicated for the area. This is
because of the high spatial and altitudinal variability (described before) found there. Global
and regional models have a lot of noise in the output data, and the results are not compatible
with some local observations. Projections are based on particular basins in Patagonia by
using a mix method between the MM5/CIMA model and the current trends (Figure 6).
Nevertheless, the trend of rainfall over the study area does show a continuous decrease
expected in future years. The explanation of this can be found in the displacement of the
Pacific anticyclone towards the South, since this pressure system is responsible for blocking
up the precipitation systems on the way to the continent (FTDT and ITDT, 2006).

19
 Precipitation decrease (mm) 140
120
Precipitation
100 winter (mm)
80
60
40
20 Precipitation
0 summer (mm)
1974-83 1980-89 1988-1997 2020-29 2050-59 2080-89

3
Temperature increase ºC

2.5
2
A2
1.5
B2
1
0.5
0
2020 2050 2080

Fig
Figure 6. (Top) Projection of precipitation changes for the upper part of Chubut river
basin. It takes into account two semesters, winter (from April to September) and summer
(from October to March), and in this case the scenario considered is A2. Source: FTDT and
ITDT, 2006. (Bottom) Projection of temperature increases according to MM5/CIMA
model, for the decade 2080 based on the period 1981-90, when considering A2 and B2 IPCC
scenarios.

3. Changes in Resources

According to FTDT and ITDT (2006) some changes have already begun to occur in the study
area:
• Decreasing annual rainfall may lead to encroachment of shrubs on the forest,
especially in the borders between the sub-Antarctic Forests and the steppe (transition
called “ecotone”). Moreover, as less precipitation falls, less commercial production
could be expected from forest plantations already established in the ecotone.

• This trend in the precipitation pattern would also lead to an increasing risk of forest
fires across the area.

• In general, there is a negative trend in the stream flow of the main rivers of
Patagonia. Within the study area that trend was reported for Chubut River8, which is
the source for water supply of the populations located on the Northeast coast. Most of
the water consumed is currently used in for irrigation proposes to the East of the
study area.

• Energy production is expected to decline. Most of the energy produced in Argentina

comes from hydropower plants. A decrease in stream flows is leading to a decrease
in energy production. In the study area there is one plant on the Futaleufú River. Also

8
However, it was not statistically significant.

20
 there is one on the Chubut River, which is located outside the study area but
nevertheless under its influence.

Photo 4. Stream flows are expected to decrease across Patagonia

Some of these changes would be accentuated in the local environment by the current
anthropogenic actions such as overgrazing in the steppe and forests (21,154 ha of high
forests are degraded by this practice; Bava, et al., 2006), overuse of marginal forests for
firewood production, intentional forest fires (36,604 ha of high forests are degraded by fire;
Bava, et al., 2006), and lack of planning of afforestation in relation with future water
requirements. Decreasing water yields may introduce new conflicts over water use between
major sectors such as human consumption, irrigation, hydropower and industrial use.
Towards the South (outside the study area) glacial meltwaters are leading to a increase in
the stream flow of the Santa Cruz River. However, this is not the case in Northwest
Patagonia (from 39º to 46º latitude South), where glaciers do not have a significant influence
on stream flows (FTDT and ITDT, 2006).

3.1 Changes in patterns of livestock farming and downstream agriculture

Economic realities over the last 15 years have seen a change in livestock activity, with
farmers changing from sheep to cattle stocks where it was possible (Figure 7, those changes
started during the 1970s). This change has mainly been driven by economic reasons (the
ratio between meat and wool prices). It is difficult to say whether those decisions will be
affected by climatic factors.

21
 180
160
140
120
100 Sheep
80 Cattle
60
40
20
0
1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05
2%
16%
28%

weather
predation
diseases
other

54%

Figure 7. (Left) Livestock numbers (in thousands) in Futaleufú County; which is located
at the North part of the study area. There is a decreasing trend in sheep stock whereas an
increase in cattle. (Right) Main causes of loss of livestock (mortality) at the period 2002-
2004 for the same area. Source of data: DGAyG, 2007.

There are some initiatives for irrigated agriculture outside the study area. At the moment a
dam building over Senguerr River is analysed by the government, water supply for seacoast
settlements is the main goal of this project9; moreover 15,000 ha could be available for
agriculture purposes.

3.2 Changes in the incidence of forest fire

Forest fires have shown high variability in terms of the area affected over the past 29 years
(Figure 8). In the study area, most of the fires are caused by anthropogenic reasons (less than
1% have origin on natural events such as thunderstorms). Nevertheless, drought years have
had an influence on the number of fires and their intensity. Kitzberger et al. (2001) found that
in northern Patagonia there is a relation among the major fires years, El Niño and La Niña
events. According these authors during El Niño events a production of fine fuels is stimulated,
9
Project’s priorities are: source of drinking water, irrigation, sustain caudal levels of the Muster – Colhué Huapi
Lakes, control of flooding caused by Senguerr River, preservation of aquatic fauna, recreation and tourism. Note
that these lakes are outside the study area. Cohué Huapi Lake is probably under a natural cycle of size changing
(FTDT and ITDT, 2006), and extreme episode occurred in 2000 when it was almost dry out (episode starting in
1998, see FTDT and ITDT, 2006 page 100).

22
which then are dried by La Niña conditions that lead in a widespread of fires. An institutional
response to the big fires occurred in 1987, when a new fire service was developed under the
DGByP structure (Epele, F. personal communication). In 2000 the Andean region of Chubut
was one of the pilot areas in Argentina selected for evaluating the Canadian forest fire
weather index (FWI) as tool to be used in forest fires management (Dentoni et al., 2007). At
the moment the DGByP and the national authority in terms of forest management (PNMF,
www.ambiente.gov.ar) are working together in the index operative implementation (Epele, F.
personal communication). These activities will inevitably mask some of the impacts of
climate on the extent of fire outbreaks.

35,000

30,000
Area affected by fire (ha)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
78-79
80-81
82-83
83-84
84-85
85-86
86-87
87-88
88-89
89-90
90-91
91-92
93-94
94-95
95-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07

Figure 8. Area annually affected by fire in the study area throughout last 29 years
(when considering forests, shrubs and grass lands). Notice that three of the five more
affected years corresponds to dry periods. Source of data: DGByP, 2007b.

3.3 Changing patterns of forest plantation

In terms of afforestation, big efforts have been made with the aim of developing the forest
sector. Although pine plantations are the most significant in terms of area planted, recent
years have seen a growth in projects with irrigation requirements10 such as poplars. Two
main points require consideration. First, some areas at the moment marginally suitable for
pine plantations would be lost if precipitation trends continue to decrease. Second, the
decrease shown in stream flows also would be accentuated by the development of huge
irrigated areas of poplar plantation.

10
These kinds of projects require an especial permission by the Water Office (DGARH).

23
Photo 4. Expansion in irrigated poplar plantations

In dry years, some forest plantations as well as some native forests have shown direct
damage (mortality) and indirect effects (predisposition to pests attacks). The severe drought
occurred in 1998-99 was coincident with a strong La Niña event (Suarez et al., 2004), and it
has had a direct effect on the forest by causing high mortality of N. dombeyi11 as well as
(perhaps) creating a pull of susceptible trees to future drought episodes. Bran et al. (2001)
carried out a valuation of that event in Northwest Patagonia (outside the study area), and
they reported that 41,75% (44,400 ha) of the N. dombeyi forests (including mixed forests)
was affected. Davel et al. (1999) found for the same period increased mortality in Douglas-fir
(Pseudotsuga mensiezii) plantations, with those already established on marginal sites being
most severely affected. Lanciotti et al. (1995) reported similar effects occasioned by the
drought in 1987 in these kinds of plantations.

11
N. dombeyi is a species naturally associated to wet slopes and watercourses and lakes.

24
Box 2. Perceptions of local interviewees in relation to climate change impacts
Northwest - J. Nuñez noticed an increment in fungal diseases on his crops (mainly
vegetables) as well as a lower height of the water table (phreatic surface), which is used for
irrigation purposes.
Northeast - J. Simeoni said that as a result of the current drought there is less available
water in the river from which he irrigates his poplar plantations. In addition he noticed that
there is a low availability of grasses used for livestock feeding. Throughout recent years he
suffered losses in his sheep stock, which never occurred before. P. Gonzalo gave a similar
statement in relation to grass availability.
Southwest - R. Acinas does not see important effects on the forests, but he noticed changes
in grass availability. He observed a later peak in the natural grass production. In relation to
droughts, he said that in his area there is always a rainy month in summer that alleviates the
situation and reduces the forest fire risk. On the other hand, he observed that intermittent
streams are drying earlier than they used to.
“It does not rain since last year and the sheep are dying,” said an article published on August
27th by the national newspaper “La Nación” (www.lanacion.com.ar). “Chubut suffers its worst
drought in the last decade and the farmers think that will have important loses on sheep
stocks” said a note published on September 1st by the national newspaper “Clarín”
(www.clarin.com).

4. Adaptations in resource management

4.1 Adaptations to livestock

There are some clear cases in which farmers have decided to decrease their stocks in
response to low grass availability in drought years. These changes are controlled by the
farmers themselves and decisions are based mainly on own experiences. In the case of
large farms, frequently with better economic prospects, professional advice is commissioned.
Institutional projects in order to improve management practices are carried out in several
farms, but nevertheless they have not been scaled up to the region. At the moment neither
rule nor guidelines on livestock management exist (in terms of field use intensity or
environmental friendly practices).

4.2 Adaptations in forestry

In terms of forestry, extensive afforestation projects12 could lead to some water related issues
in the future. But these projects are being promoted for other benefits:
• To decrease desertification process running in the area (mainly in the steppe
because of overgrazing);

• To decrease pressure on native forests;

• To diversify the livelihoods of the area; and

• To contribute with the global CO2 fixation.

In the past, several forest plantations were established in areas cleared of natural forests.
Some areas were left without any management practice. The consequences have been seen
30 years later with the infestation of the woodwasp Sirex noctilio; which accidentally

12
According to official data, the suitable lands available for afforestation in Chubut are 311,000 ha and other
400,000 ha with irrigation requirements (DGByP, 2007a).

25
appeared in the area. This wasp affects mainly pine species and may cause their death.
Environmental factors such as drought or an excessive overcrowding make trees more
susceptible to the attack. Important economic loses have been caused by the woodwasp in
the area. In response, the Forest Service established a special program for pest and disease
monitoring and management. Several investments have also been made in order to improve
the forest fire management program and some changes were introduced in the management
of native forests; which are not based on climate change perceptions but would have positive
effects when facing those changes. An example of this are the prescriptions introduced for
forest management near watercourses on N. pumilio covers. It could be beneficial not just for
water protection but also to keep natural corridors for wildlife displacement or protection.

Photo 5. New Ponderosa pine plantation

There are already 24,000 ha of pine plantations in the study area (DGByP, 2007a) and the
government goal in 2005 was to achieve 25,000 more ha in the period 2006-2011. In 2006,
several small sized farmers showed an interest in establishing poplar plantations eastward
from the study area. The main aim of those projects is not just to create windbreaks, but also
because they improve conditions for agriculture practices (through the irrigation system).
Activities such as these would have an important effect on farmers’ livelihoods in the future.
However that is just the starting point and it is necessary to wait for the success of those
projects.

26
Box 3. Examples of adaptation to climate change among local interviewees
Northwest - In the case of J. Nuñez, he did not change his activities because the scale the
effects are not significant. However he said that nowadays his firewood consumption is
higher than before, and he decided to change the kind of corn and potatoes seeds used,
privileging those of shorter cycle.
Northeast - J. Simeoni has changed his project of poplar’s windbreak as a response to the
problems with the water supply that are affecting him. In addition J. Simeoni as well as P.
Gonzalo have decreased their livestock production because of less field capacity in terms of
grass. P. Gonzalo says that the decrease of stocking is not the only response made by
farmers. In some cases low grass availability has led to an increase in the pressure on native
forests (specially on N. antarctica). Also she said that in dry years, like the current one, there
is less availability of lambs as well as calves that implies a direct impact in the regional
market, where a rise in the meat’s price can be expected.
Southwest - R. Acinas said that because of lower grass availability he reduces his stock.
This management practice is based on his own experience. Last year he started to crop 20
ha of grass (Medicago sativa) in order to obtain winter supplement for cattle feeding.

4.3 Adaptation involving ecosystem services

The valuation of ecosystem services has been seen as a possibility to shift management
practices towards greater sustainability. Recent work was carried out in the area in order to
explore the possibility of introducing some kind of forest ecosystem services market (SAyDS
and UNSE, 2007). As more relevance is given by local people to climate change this option
will become more important. If that were the case, it would be easier to implement some kind
of environmental services payment in the area. To date, on September 24th a local
cooperative (SCPL) in Chubut (outside the study area) sold the first Certified Emission
Reductions credits (CREs) in the province according to the Kyoto Protocol. This operation
was related to wind energy production, with Japan Carbon Finance Foundation (JCF) as the
buyer. Some years ago, an attempt was made to sign a contract for the rights of possible
carbon credits (originated in native forests) between the province and a German Foundation
(PrimaKlima-weltweit- e.V). This project was unsuccessful because of the high opposition of
the local people – based around uncertainties such as the kind of rights that could be implied
by that contract involving native forests. Moreover, the political situation at that time and a
lack of communication strategy contributed to that failure.

5. Roles of local Institutions

5.1 The role of institutions governing livestock

Livestock production was one, if not the main, driver of regional development. Nowadays it is
still one of most important contributors in the local economy. It has been seen as necessary
to use existing grasslands according to their carrying capacity. INTA gives some technical
advices on this topic, but decisions are left to the farmers’ own motivation. In this topic,
DGAyG has a crucial role to play in order to advance its capacity in the face of climate
change. Although achieving a norm that creates a rigid framework appears to be non-
realistic, some initial steps could be done through a participative learning process. In addition
DGAyG needs to involve other governmental policies such as promoted by DGByP when
there is a forestland involved. A collaborative framework among those institutions is required.

Addressing agroforestry practices in natural N. antarctica forests towards more sustainable

models should be done in the meantime. INTA have carried out several pilot projects (looking
for a better understanding of the system as well as to improve farmers’ livelihoods), but it is
necessary to spread the experiences to as many farmers as possible. Lessons need to be

27
learned that have a positive effect in reducing the pressure on N. pumilio forests, where
grazing is not compatible with their natural dynamics. In addition, promotion of agroforestry
practices eastwards in marginal areas for afforestation proposals could reduce overgrazing
on the steppe and simultaneously diversify farmers’ livelihoods. The development of those
models should be carried out by research institutions such as INTA and CIEFAP whereas
their promotion and encompass by governmental agencies such as DGByP and DGAyG.

Photo 6. Need to manage land use interactions between forestry and livestock

5.2 The role of institutions governing forest resources

Ponderosa pine (P. ponderosa) is the main species promoted by afforestation projects
(because its high adaptation to the local conditions). The development of forest plantations
as monocultures has negative effects already documented worldwide. Climate change could
increase those risks. Diversifying species to be used could be an alternative, but requires
further research. Some findings were recently carried out by CIEFAP (searching for a range
of alternative forest species), but it is necessary to go further and to develop policy incentives
for change. Moreover to implement such programs at a regional scale will take several years.
A first step would be to take special care on species and sites selection when planting in
marginal areas. This also implies responsibilities on private parties (farmers and technicians).
Future water requirements at landscape scale should be taken into account when promoting
an extensive development of the forest sector. Research institutions as well as governmental
agencies should work together in order to improve planning activities.

5.3 General requirements for better data

In order to improve the decision making process it is necessary to implement models based
on climate data. This would have at least two positive aspects: first, the trends could be used
to predict likely difficulties so that actions could be taken in advance. Second, decisions such
as establishing agricultural emergency would be based on quantitative data. To allow this,

28
first of all an improvement on the meteorological network should be achieved, and the
responsibility for that belongs to the SMN13.

Box 4. Observation on the institutional framework governing adaptation to climate change

In P. Gonzalo words “the decision on how managing the stock belongs to each farmer, there
are no rules for saying whether a field is overexploited or not”. She thinks that there is a need
for some research carried out by institutions with farmers as partners, but the problem is that
the information is not sufficiently disseminated. This particular dry year, and after the claims
of Rural Societies and farmers in the province14, the government decided to provide them
with grass, grains and water for the livestock in the affected areas.
All the local interviewees agree that there is no institution working directly on climate change
and local adaptation. In addition M. Hartel (a governmental technician) said that in part the
lack of belief in climate change is because there are a lot of speculation and diversity of
hypotheses around the topic. She also added that maybe a problem is the clear lack of
trusted information sources.

6. Conclusions

Climate change is happening. But better data is required in order to improve regional models
of its impacts and facilitate the decision making process. Better data is also a key factor
when looking for more efficient systems (i.e. where to concentrate adaptation efforts).
Although there is no accurate official meteorological network in the study area, it could be
improved by homogenizing those stations already present and which do not belong to the
SMN. In addition, farmer’s access to information should be improved. Facilitation of clear
data interpretation by farmers should be part of any new process.

The impacts of climate change are not yet severe in comparison with other areas; the
situation gives adequate time to prepare for the future. This is therefore a key time to build
institutional capacity to adapt to the main threats. Even though no institution has been
recognized as competent on the topic, several examples of adaptation were found. This
should be seen as an opportunity to base an adaptation strategy around such changes.

Although the reality of the sub-Antarctic forests is quite different to that observed in the North
of Argentina where deforestation processes are a huge issue, overlapping land uses in the
study area such as cattle farming and forest management is leading to the degradation of
these natural forests in the long term. This situation could be accelerated by climate change,
for instance if the precipitation pattern trends continue to decline. Special research should be
carried out on this topic, in order to see whether those climates related effects are the main
drivers or not.

Finally, adaptation will require a coherent and coordinated set of policies between the main
institutions. Throughout Chubut’s provincial history, controversies between different
institutional policies have been found. Those controversies were mainly because of
promoting one resource development without taking into account its impacts on others. At
the very least, communication channels between different institutions as well as within them
and between them and other stakeholders should be improved.

13
In the study area there is just one official meteorological station (Esquel Airport), and some years ago one
automatic station was settled in Río Senguer (Southern part of the study area). In the whole province there are 5
stations (SMN, 2007d).
14
The claims were in the way of getting a declaration of “agricultural emergency” that implies measurers such as
extending periods of taxes and loans payments as well as access to special loans. According the law loses must
reach 50% in order to state the emergency. That was not the case in the current drought.

29
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Barros, V.; Scian, B.; Mattio, H. 1980. Mapas de Precipitación de Chubut. Dirección de
Recursos Hídricos del Chubut.

Barros, V. and Bejarán, R. Adaptación al cambio climático en Argentina: ¿dónde estamos?

2005. CIMA (CONICET) - Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos –
Universidad de Buenos Aires. Working Paper. 43 pp.

Bava, J.; Lencinas, J. D.; Haag, A.; Aguado, G. 2006. Los bosques del Chubut. Distribución,
estado y potencial para la producción maderera. Consejo Federal de Inversiones (CFI) -
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Bran, D.; Pérez, A.; Ghermandi, L. y Barrios, D. 2001. Evaluación de poblaciones de coihue
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7 pp.

Campo Experimental Trevelin, INTA EEA Esquel. 2007. Temperature and precipitation
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Davel M.; Barroetaveña C.; Rajchenberg, M., 1999. Muerte del pino oregón por sequía en la
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Dentoni, M.C.; Muñoz, M.M.; Epele, F.E. Implementación de un sistema nacional de

evaluación de peligro de incendios: la experiencia argentina. 4th International Wildland Fire
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DGByP. 2007a. La política de fomento forestal en la provincia del Chubut. Inventario

Forestal y Concesiones. Dirección General de Bosques y Parques del Chubut, Argentina.
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2007]

DGEyC. 2007a. Extracción forestal por períodos anuales, según productos obtenidos.
Dirección General de Estadísticas y Censos. Available at:
http://www.estadistica.chubut.gov.ar/menuTematico/sector-primario/Silvicultura/Extraccion-
Forestal-segun-Productos-1983-2006.xls [Cited: October 2007].

DGEyC. 2007b. Población estimada al 30 de junio de cada año. Dirección General de

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30
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Metereológico Nacional, Argentina. Available at:
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1961-2006. Servicio Metereológico Nacional, Argentina.

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SMN. 2007c. Estación metereológica Esquel. Datos extremos (temperatura), período 1961-
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Photo 7. Walking through natural forest in Patagonia

32
Annex 1. Map of the study area

33
Annex 2. Trends in annual precipitation and mean temperatures for two
stations in the study area

1800
Annual Precipitation (mm)

1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year

Figure 9. Trends observed for annual precipitation (mm) throughout the period 1980-2006 in
Aldea Escolar.

12.0

11.0
Mean temperature (ºC)

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0

6.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

Year

Figure 10. Trends observed for mean temperature (ºC) for the same period in Aldea Escolar.
Source of data: Campo Experimental Trevelin, INTA EEA Esquel, 2007.

Notice that there is a lack on long term data for Aldea Escolar’s station. This situation could
be mask the real precipitation trend (compare the 1980s with other decades in Esquel).

34
 700
Annual Precipitation (mm)

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year

Figure 11. Trends observed for annual precipitation (mm) throughout the period 1961-2006 in
Esquel.

12

11
Mean Temperature (ºC)

10

6
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005

Year

Figure 12. Trends observed for mean temperature (ºC) for the period 1961-2006 in Esquel.
Source of data: SMN, 2007b. (Black line equals trend line).

35