WING Wingstop Investor Presentation June 2018
WING Wingstop Investor Presentation June 2018
WING Wingstop Investor Presentation June 2018
PRESENTATION
JUNE 2018
0
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. All statements other than statements of historical fact or
relating to present facts or current conditions included in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements give Wingstop Inc.’s (the
“Company”) current expectations and projections relating to its financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance and business. You
can identify forward-looking statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. These statements may include words such as
“anticipates,” “believes,” “continues,” “estimates,” “expects,” “goal,” “objectives” “intends,” “may,” “opportunity,” “plans,” “potential,” “near-term,” “long-term,”
“projections,” “assumptions,” “projects,” “guidance,” “forecasts,” “outlook,” “target,” “trends,” “should,” “could,” “would,” “will” and similar expressions and
terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of the timing or nature of future operating or financial performance or other events.
The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are based on assumptions that the Company has made in light of its industry experience and
perceptions of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors it believes are appropriate under the circumstances. As
you read and consider this presentation, you should understand that these statements are not guarantees of performance or results. They involve risks,
uncertainties (many of which are beyond its control) and assumptions. Although the Company believes that these forward-looking statements are based on
reasonable assumptions, you should be aware that many factors could affect its actual operating and financial performance and cause its performance to
differ materially from the performance anticipated in the forward-looking statements. The Company believes these factors include, but are not limited to,
those described under the sections “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in its
Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize,
or should any of these assumptions prove incorrect, the Company’s actual operating and financial performance may vary in material respects from the
performance projected in these forward-looking statements.
Any forward-looking statement made by the Company in this presentation speaks only as of the date on which it is made. Factors or events that could cause
the Company’s actual operating and financial performance to differ may emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for the Company to predict all of
them. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments
or otherwise, except as may be required by law.
This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. A “non-GAAP financial measure” is defined as a numerical measure of a company’s
financial performance that excludes or includes amounts so as to be different than the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in
accordance with GAAP in the statements of income, balance sheets or statements of cash flow of the company. The Company has provided a reconciliation
of Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, to net income in the Appendix to this presentation. Adjusted EBITDA is presented because
management believes that such financial measure, when viewed with the Company’s results of operations presented in accordance with GAAP and the
reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to net income, provides additional information to investors about certain material non-cash items and about unusual items
that the Company does not expect to continue at the same level in the future. Adjusted EBITDA is used by investors as a supplemental measure to evaluate
the overall operating performance of companies in the Company’s industry, but you should not consider it in isolation, or as a substitute for analysis of
results as reported in accordance with GAAP. The Company’s calculation of Adjusted EBITDA may not be comparable to that reported by other companies.
For additional information about the Company’s non-GAAP financial measures, see the Company’s filings with the SEC.
1
CATEGORY
OF ONE
2
STRONG START TO 2018
3 Year CAGR(1)
Revenue 16%
Notes:
(1) Three-year period ended December 30, 2017.
(2) Refer to Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation in Appendix.
4
SSS OUTPACE TOP INDUSTRY BRANDS
2012 – 2017 Stacked Same Store Sales
2017
2016
2015
49.9%
2.6% 46.2%
2014
3.2% 2013
2012
7.9%
32.0%
12.5%
22.8%
21.0%
9.9% 17.0% 16.7%
12.7% 11.8%
7.8%
13.8%
3.0%
(1) (1) (2) (3) (3) (3) (1) (1) (4) (1) (3)
National Advertising
Delivery
Digital Expansion
International
6
NATIONAL ADVERTISING
NATIONAL ADVERTISING
7
SUCCESSFUL 2017 NATIONAL ADVERTISING ROLLOUT WITH
UPSIDE OPPORTUNITY
2017 National Advertising Launch Future of National Ad Fund
9.0%
7.0%
5.0%
3.0%
1.0%
-1.0%
-3.0%
2017 2018 2019
-5.0%
Source: APT Index. 8
SALES TRENDS PRE-NATIONAL ADVERTISING
ROLLOUT
Wingstop SSS variance to the APT Index - four weeks ended February 11, 2017
4.9%
6.5% -9.2%
-9.1% -8.7%
12.1% -9.0%
-12.2% -5.7%
-11.8%
-2.6% -16.8%
-2.1% -10.5%
-9.6% -12.7% -15.5%
-9.3%
-4.7%
4.6% -4.5%
-8.9% -8.6%
-11.8%
-15.8%
-9.2%
-6.6% -12.1%
6.9% -4.6% -6.6%
Source: APT Index. SSS variances compare Wingstop stores to APT index stores in those markets.
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SALES TRENDS POST-NATIONAL ADVERTISING
ROLLOUT
Wingstop SSS variance to the APT Index - four weeks ended December 30, 2017
9.9%
30.6% 29.4%
35.6%
10.2%
4.2% 11.2%
12.5% 15.9% 32.9%
21.7% -10% to 0%
17.1% 25.2%
0% to 5%
5.6%
16.1% 5% to 10%
8.8%
10% to 20%
20%+
Source: APT Index. SSS variances compare Wingstop stores to APT index stores in those markets.
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DELIVERY
11
EARLY SUCCESS IN INITIAL DELIVERY TEST
MARKETS
Delivery Test Markets - Blended Same Store
• Initial test market of Las Vegas Transaction Lift
market experienced 10%+ 12.0%
Wk 1
Wk 2
Wk 3
Wk 4
Wk 5
Wk 6
Wk 7
Wk 8
Wk 9
Wk 10
Wk 11
Wk 12
Wk 13
Wk 14
Wk 15
Wk 16
Wk 17
• Strategic partnership with DoorDash
Delivery Test Markets – Blended Digital Sales Mix
• Likely rollout market-by-market
beginning late 2018 / early 2019 26.0%
24.0%
22.0%
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
Wk 1
Wk 2
Wk 3
Wk 4
Wk 5
Wk 6
Wk 7
Wk 8
Wk 9
Wk 10
Wk 11
Wk 12
Wk 13
Wk 14
Wk 15
Wk 16
Wk 17
Pre (13 wks)
12
DIGITAL
13
POISED FOR CONTINUED DIGITAL GROWTH
400
25.0% • 75% take-out
24.0%
300 23.0%
• Almost 50% phone orders
Store Count
250 22.0%
200
• $5 higher digital average
21.0% ticket (1)
150
20.0%
100
19.0%
• Q1 digital sales of 24%
50
vs. fast casual average of
- 18.0%
Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 6%(2)
Less than 10% Between 10-15% Between 15-20%
Between 20-25% Greater than 25% Online Sales %
Sources:
(1) As of quarter ended 3/31/18 for Domestic restaurants.
(2) OLO.
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ON OUR WAY TO BEST IN CLASS DIGITAL SALES
60%
50%
40%
Digital Sales %
10%
0%
(1) (1) (2) (1) (1) (3)
Sources:
(1) Q1 2018 earnings call transcript.
(2) Q3 2017 earnings call transcript.
(3) Dunkin’ Donuts Investor Day 2/8/18.
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MEETING DIGITAL GUESTS WHERE THEY ARE
First to launch:
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INTERNATIONAL
17
VISION: TOP 10 GLOBAL RESTAURANT BRAND
(unit count in thousands)
International Units
43.6 US Units
37.3
18.2
28.2
23.3
11.2 21.6
16.9 16.8
15.0
12.6
25.4 17.5 9.3 9.3
9.3 3.4
8.0
17.0 6.9 6.6
14.0
9.2 5.4
7.6 7.5 6.5 6.1
4.1 5.6
2.6
(1)
Note: Unit counts as shown on most recent 10-Q or 10-K, except for the following:
(1) Source - http://www.subway.com/en-us/exploreourworld
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STRONG EMERGING INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS
Note:
(1) Unit data as of 12/30/17.
(2) Potential store count based on Company and franchisee estimates.
19
COMPELLING SSS GROWTH AND UNIT LEVEL
ECONOMICS
International SSS(1) Momentum Solid Unit Level Economics
Sales to
9.9% Market Investment
Ratio (2)
15.3%
Mexico 2.0:1
3.9%
Indonesia 2.0:1
13.4%
Philippines 1.5:1
11.2%
Singapore 3.5:1
4.9%
UAE 1.5:1
Malaysia 4.0:1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Saudi Arabia 2.0:1
6th Consecutive Year of Positive United States 3.0:1
SSS Growth
Note:
(1) International sales exclude the impact of foreign currency exchange rate changes.
(2) Sales to investment ratio is based on fiscal 2017 sales / avg. investment cost as reported by the franchisee.
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WITH PROVEN PORTABILITY TO MEET LOCAL
MARKET NEEDS
FAST CASUAL SPORTS – CASUAL DINING
• Contemporary design • Sports theme design
• Order at counter • Table service
• Table delivery and beer (optional) • Full bar
• Digital menu boards • 20+ TV monitors & audio
• 50-70 seats • 150-200 seats
21
PROVEN INTERNATIONAL MODEL - MEXICO
Market Overview AUV and Same Store Sales Growth
14.7%
• Clear market leader chicken wing
6.4%
concept
44
34
24
18
14
10
• 21 restaurants as of 12/30/2017
35%
21
15
10
Ireland 23kg
Australia 39kg
China 12kg
India 2kg
Middle East
Americas
Market Consumption
Market Consumption
Saudi Arabia 44kg
Brazil 39kg
Kuwait 32kg
Canada 32kg
Bahrain 24kg
Colombia/Panama 31kg
Africa
Market Consumption
Current market
South Africa 31kg
Signed/to be launched in 2018
Targeted for 2019 to 2021
National Advertising
Delivery
Digital Expansion
International
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GLOBAL MOMENTUM
159
1041
147
142 20
877
24 32
771 779
102 596
359
268 249
20
74 499
10 139
57 381 136
118 115
4
107
82 503 530 518
64 445
53 363
274
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Domestic International Domestic International
29
FAVORABLE TRENDS IN WINGS
30
BEST IN CLASS UNIT LEVEL ECONOMICS
Unit Economics
Notes:
(1) AUV based on year 2 sales volumes for the 2014 vintage years.
(2) Investment cost based on last 2 fiscal years actual costs; excludes pre-opening and working capital.
(3) Average store economics are internal Company estimates based on unaudited results reported by franchise owners. 31
(4) As of 9/30/17.
SHAREHOLDER FRIENDLY MODEL
EBITDA Growth and Cash Generation Support Return of Capital and Deleveraging
97% 94% $1.83 Per Share $2.90 Per Share $3.17 Per Share
93% Dividend Dividend Dividend
84%
72%
5.2x 5.4x
5.0x
3.1x
2.4x
(2)
(2) (3) Q1 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2017
Post Pro-Forma Pro-forma
Recap.
Source: Public company filings. Notes: (4) Leverage = Net Debt / LTM Adjusted EBITDA.
(1) Defined as (EBITDA – Capex) / EBITDA.
(2) Calculations use Adj. EBITDA.
(3) LTM Q4 Capex of $2.5 million is adjusted for store
acquisitions.
32
UNIQUELY POSITIONED FRANCHISE MODEL
LONG-TERM FINANCIAL TARGETS*
ATTRACTIVE LONG-TERM
BUSINESS MODEL GROWTH TARGETS
+
• Low single digit annual growth
Strong Same Store Sales Growth • Online ordering
• National advertising
=
• 13%-15% Adjusted EBITDA growth
Steady, Reliable Profit Growth • 18%-20% Net Income / EPS growth
• Strong free cash flow and conversion
*These are not projections; they are goals and are forward-looking, subject to significant business, economic, regulatory and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many
of which are beyond the control of the Company and its management, and are based upon assumptions with respect to future decisions, which are subject to change. Actual
results will vary and those variations may be material. For discussion of some of the important factors that could cause these variations, please consult the “Risk Factors” section
in our Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. Nothing in this presentation should be regarded as a representation by any person that these goals will be achieved and the 33
Company undertakes no duty to update its goals.
APPENDIX
34
HISTORICAL ADJUSTED EBITDA RECONCILIATION
In $000s
Year Ended Year Ended Year Ended Year Ended
(1)
Dec. 27, 2014 Dec. 26, 2015 Dec. 31, 2016 Dec. 30, 2017
Net income 8,986 10,106 15,434 27,304
Interest expense, net 3,684 3,477 4,396 5,131
Income tax expense 5,312 5,739 9,119 3,845
Adjustments
Management agreement
– 3,297 – –
termination fee(1)
Management fees(2) 449 237 – –
Transaction costs(3) 2,169 2,186 2,388 –
Gains and losses on disposal
(86) – – –
of assets(4)
Stock-based compensation
960 1,155 1,231 1,851
expense(5)
Adjusted EBITDA 24,378 28,879 35,576 41,507
Notes:
(1) One-time fee of approx. $3.3 million paid in consideration of termination of management agreement with Roark Capital Management, LLC.
(2) Includes management fees and other out-of-pocket expenses paid to Roark Capital Management, LLC.
(3) Represents costs and expenses related to refinancing of our credit agreement and our public offerings.
(4) Represents non-cash gains and losses resulting from the sale of company-owned restaurants to a franchisee and associated goodwill impairment.
(5) Includes non-cash, stock-based compensation.
35
NET DEBT RECONCILIATION
In $000s
Adjustments for Q4 Pro-Forma
December 30, 2017
Refinance(1) Ending Balance
Note:
(1) Adjusted for proceeds from the new senior secured debt facility.
36