Wisdom of Intelligent Investors Safal Niveshak Jan. 2018 PDF

SafalNiveshak.
com
Wit. Wisdom. Value Investing
Insights from Some of Today’s Leading Investment Minds

SafalNiveshak.com
Believe In Long-Term Compounding 6 Learn To Say No 21

Avoid Short-Term Thinking 7 Understand Risk Well 22
Read & Learn From Business History 8 ‘Hope’ Is Not A Strategy 23
Learn Deeply About Businesses 9 Appreciate The Role of Luck 24
Empathize With Managements 10 Focus on Longevity of growth 25
Have An Open Mind 11 Relish Being Proven Wrong 26
Find A Devil’s Advocate 12 Accept Reality As It Is 27
Focus On Avoiding Mistakes 13 Be Humble 28
Size Your Positions Well 14 Remember Opportunity Costs 29
Always Be Disciplined 15 Write It Down 30
Focus On Process Than Outcome 16 Build Your Own Conviction 31
Make Fewer Investment Decisions 17 Don’t Cut Corners 32
Don’t Ape Anyone 18 It Takes Effort And Practice 33
Practice Inaction 19 People Are The Best Teachers 34
Sit Tight On Great Businesses 20 Value Investing Takes Time 35
SafalNiveshak.com
Dear Tribe Member,
If the history of stock market is anything to go by, investors often make decisions that can
undermine their ability to build long-term wealth. As such, it is often very valuable to look back in
history and study closely the principles that have guided the investment decisions of some of the
best minds and practitioners in this field through both good and bad markets. By studying these
experienced investors, we can learn many important lessons about the mindset required to build
long-term wealth.
With this goal in mind, the following pages offer the wisdom of some of the best investment minds of
current times from India and abroad. Though each of these investors offers perspective on a distinct
topic, the common thread that runs across is that a disciplined, patient, humble, and unemotional
investment approach is required to reach your long-term financial goals.
I hope this collection of wisdom serves as a valuable guide as you navigate an ever-changing
market environment and build long-term wealth.
With respect,
Vishal Khandelwal,
Founder – Safal Niveshak
SafalNiveshak.com
The wisdom shared in the next few pages has been distilled
from the several interviews we’ve had for our premium
newsletter – Value Investing Almanack – with some of today’s
best investing minds in India and abroad.
To read detailed interviews of the investors profiled in this

document, and a lot of other ideas on value investing,
behavioural finance, and business analysis, we invite you to
subscribe to Value Investing Almanack.
Cover photos (left to right): Sanjay Bakshi, Ian Cassel, Huzaifa Husain, Samit Vartak, John Huber
SafalNiveshak.com
Insights from Some of Today’s Leading Investment Minds
Let’s start right away…

SafalNiveshak.com
In investing, you can end up on top simply by living a very long

life, rather than focusing on finding fastest growing companies.
You can do well by compounding for a long term by avoiding

mistakes. That is, by not focusing on breakthroughs, but by focus
on elimination of mistakes.
Amit Arora
(Co-founder & CIO,
Eleven Dimension
Funds)
Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 6

SafalNiveshak.com
If you want to be a better long-term investor, get rid of all

distractions that promote short-term thinking. Listening to
financial pundits, watching your positions every second of the
trading day, and watching hundreds of other stocks that you
would never own at any price are big distractions.
Focus on owning the best companies you can find. You will be
Ian Cassel
(Founder,
amazed at how well you can focus by getting rid of these
MicroCapClub.com) distractions. Don’t let the daily price action in your positions
influence your long-term resolve.
Retraining your mind to not care if a position is making a 52-

week high or is down 10% in a day will make you a better
investor. You know you are doing it right when your wife is telling
you about what happened in the market at dinner.
SafalNiveshak.com
It is dangerous to read books especially on investing without

reading about business history. It may cloud one’s view. Hence,
read annual reports of companies for as far back as they can
find. Read them across various companies over various time
frames. You should be able to understand how companies have
behaved over business cycles, how their valuations have
changed, why did they succeed, why did they fail, etc.
Huzaifa Husain
(Head of Equities,
PineBridge Once a vast amount of business history is read and understood,
Investments)
all one needs to read are the letters of Warren Buffett and Poor
Charlie’s Almanack to build a framework.
Beyond that, remember what Vedas say on multidisciplinary

thinking – आ नो भद्राः क्रतवो यन्तु ववश्वताः (Let noble thoughts come to
us from all sides).
SafalNiveshak.com
Learn as much as you can about businesses. A lot of us have

been guilty of reading way too much about how to become a
better investor rather than spending time on learning businesses. I
think it gives us some perverse pleasure to sit and hope that we’ll
become great investors one day but the number one thing to do
is to learn about businesses and how they make money.
Prabhakar Kudva
(Co-founder, Samvitti
I would urge everyone including myself to, after a point, spend
Capital Pvt. Ltd) more time on studying the businesses than on how to study the
businesses.

SafalNiveshak.com
My approach towards management is – you cannot do a good

deal with a bad guy. Having said that, I am not looking for saints
either but rather pragmatic entrepreneurs.
And depending on the attractiveness of other variables, the

weight that I assign to management quality varies. I don’t want
to associate with crooks but then sometimes you have got to be
Arpit Ranka
(Independent Investor)
lenient towards an entrepreneur committing a genuine mistake
and trust him with your money. They are human beings and
treating them like automatons would be a mistake on our part I
think.
I am not bogged down by the idea of betting on a promoter

and making a fool of myself in the process because eventually
learning to bet on people is also an integral part of the process.
SafalNiveshak.com
I don’t think there is a better starting point in investing than

having an open mind.
So, every stock I approach and look at, I try to clear my mind of
any prejudices or biases I might have about the company,
industry or management. I let the facts, as I get them, shape up
my thinking. It is easier said than done and I continue to struggle.
Jayendra Kulkarni
Effectively, time is money, so when one is investing time in
studying a business, the effort must be to make it count in an
unbiased manner.

SafalNiveshak.com
Once I am broadly excited about a business, my major analysis

is on digging holes into my excitement. Once you like a stock,
the natural tendency is to just jump in before the price runs up.
When you take short cuts that’s exactly when risk crops in.
As part of my analysis, I avoid talking to co-investors who already

have vested interest and are also excited about the stock. Talk
Samit Vartak mainly to the company’s competitors because they generally
(CIO, SageOne will give you a different point of view on the industry and about
Investment Advisors) why certain strategy is inferior. Talk to analysts who have
negative view on the company. Find a strong devil’s advocate
who will try and destroy your hypothesis.

SafalNiveshak.com
The great thing about investing is you don’t need many great
ideas to do well over a career if you avoid catastrophic
mistakes.
Always focus on protecting your capital and try and avoid big
errors. All investors make mistakes, and luckily, as Peter Lynch
once said, you could do very well with only getting 6 out of 10
John Huber
(Portfolio Manager, right if you keep your losses relatively small. I think focusing on
Saber Capital avoiding mistakes is much more important than trying to hit the
Management, LLC)
next “home run”. Identifying and investing in the well-managed,
high quality businesses is one way of trying to reduce these
mistakes.

SafalNiveshak.com
If valuation is the biggest factor for an investment, position-sizing

is second. When all my mistakes are boiled down, it fits into either
category, but my biggest are a combination of both.
Every investment involves risk and the best way to mitigate risk is
to make sure you buy it at an attractive price and limit damage
with good position sizing. As small investors, we can't take over
the board, change the behavior of management, influence how
Jae Jun
(Founder, a product will be bought and sold.
Old School Value)
These are external factors that certainly need to be analyzed,

but the internal factors that can be controlled is via good
valuation and allocation.

SafalNiveshak.com
Discipline is one of the most important attributes of an investor.

One should have the ability to articulate one’s investing
philosophy, be clear in one’s mind what type of stocks one will
gravitate towards and what one will avoid and then just
religiously stick to that philosophy through different market
moods.
Swanand Kelkar
(Executive Director, At times, your investing style will be in favour in the market and
Morgan Stanley ) that part is easy, the tough part is when the market does not
reward your style. The temptation to jump ship is immense at
these times and that’s where your investing fortitude is really
tested.

SafalNiveshak.com
I would suggest two ways to improve quality of decision making.

First, a focus on the process of investing rather than outcomes.
This will ensure that the right lessons are learnt from outcomes.
Investing is about probabilities and following a good process will
ensure good outcomes on average over time.
Gaurav Jalan Second, an emphasis on facts versus forecasting. At any given

(CIO, Avant Garde
Wealth Management)
time, the future can have a wide range of outcomes and
therefore investments made on specific forecasts have a high
probability of being wrong. It is better to focus on historical facts
which are knowable and amenable to analysis to make
intelligent guesses about a range of future outcomes.

SafalNiveshak.com
Fewer investment decisions you make the better. You'll put that
much more time and effort into arriving at that decision whereas
if you're making a decision every day or every hour then
seriousness doesn't go into that decision.
Most people get married once in their lifetime, and so you give a
Rajeev Thakkar lot of thought to it – most people do. Marriage is an extreme
(Director and Fund
Manager, PPFAS example. Even when you take a job you plan to spend at least a
Mutual Fund) few years in that company. People give serious thought to it.
Why should it be different for stock investing? You can't be on a
train and some guy sitting next to you says that this stock looks
good and you go out and buy it. It can't be that.

SafalNiveshak.com
Don’t ape anyone, because even if you ape someone’s

investing style, how will you ape his conviction? If there is no
conviction, you will never be able to make the best out of it. Be
yourself, it will be more than enough. For example, I think
understanding Warren Buffett is very easy, but implementing his
style is virtually impossible. That’s why there is only one Buffett.
Also, one should think whether it really necessary to invest like
Neeraj Marathe Buffett? Do we have his compulsions of size? If you read his
(Independent Investor) partnership letters (when his size was much smaller), you will
discover a very-very different Buffett.
Instead of talking about and aspiring to be like Buffett, spend

time understanding about accounting and financial statements.
Develop your own process and philosophy.

SafalNiveshak.com
Whatever I have read about great investors, is that the masterly

inaction they practice had to do a lot with other activities that
they did to keep themselves busy. It’s not inaction. It’s action
outside of investing. There is so much action outside of investing –
reading, understanding, and thinking. The intellectual pursuits
basically dominated their work. That’s why investing could be left
only when it was required. They had to do it only when it was
needed.
Shyam Sekhar
(Founder, iThought)
I am afraid that our community of investors is still learning. I don’t
think we are there. Therefore this is what makes people try to
create new and new ideas and it’s like punching that card 100
times. When you punch a card 100 times, 10 times a year, you
are bound to go wrong.

SafalNiveshak.com
The big lesson in common stock investing is to buy great

businesses at reasonable valuations and then to sit on them for a
long-long time. If you take a sample of 100 very successful
investors who have compounded their capital at a high rate for
a long-long time, you will find that an overwhelming majority of
them simply did not sell the great businesses they had bought.
Sanjay Bakshi
(Adjunct Prof, MDI
In particular, they did not overdo the excel modelling to keep
Gurgaon) calculating the future expected returns based on current stock
price. Nor did they worry about selling a stock simply because it
was not quoting at a P/E multiple which made the stock look
expensive. Rather they followed Philip Fisher’s advice – “If the job
has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased,
the time to sell it is-almost never.”

SafalNiveshak.com
Develop a mindset to say no and recognize the practical

limitations of not being able to reach everywhere and uncover
all businesses. This is just plain very difficult.
Once we have that framework and a sort of no regret mindset,

life is far easier. You are then putting in a certain self-imposed
restriction on areas you would like to work on and improve
Ayaz Motiwala
(Founder, Amala understanding.
Emerging Asia Fund)
This to my mind should help in improving decision making and
result in better investment results over time.

SafalNiveshak.com
Risk is an under-taught subject. In fact, it is surprising that it is not

taught in schools and colleges as a subject and very few books
on risk management are written. Risk is personal, of character or
judgment as also of loss of opportunities from fear or social
impact. It is wrongly perceived that the risk and reward are
directly related i.e., higher the risk higher the reward and lower
risk means low reward. On the contrary, lower the risk is higher
Safir Anand be the reward and vice versa.
(Independent Investor
& Senior Partner,
Anand and Anand) Risk also lies in being a non-believer and falling prey to mass
sentiment in times of market fall or exuberance in market prices.
Risk is also of watching TV for investment calls and reacting to
announcements. Risk is also of poor capital allocation and
resilience to decisions even if factors suggest that the basis of
decision is turning against you.
SafalNiveshak.com
The most dangerous four letter word in investing is “hope”. Hope

partially driven out of loss aversion and partially out of innate
human optimism is the quagmire in which lot of investing
mistakes get sucked in.
Over the last few years I have learnt a lot from traders. I strongly
recommend reading books by traders like Jesse Livermore or the
Ninad Kunder
Market Wizards series by Jack Schwager. A trader cannot afford
to hope when his trade has gone wrong because the market
delivers the bad news to his leveraged position immediately. In
case of an investor, losses over hope play out over a longer
period of time akin to a boiling frog syndrome.
You sell when you are wrong. Period. You don’t hope.

SafalNiveshak.com
People underestimate vastly the role of luck in investing.

Everyone thinks that they strike it big because how smart they
are.
As I look back, I realize how important it is to be lucky. You can

make a series of errors and get away relatively unscathed like
me. And I made so many errors that I could write a book on
Anonymous
(Old fashioned
them!
Graham style value
investor who has taken
a lot of knocks in his
If there is anything to wish for, if you’re starting out as an investor,
30+ years investment wish for good luck. And of course work hard and have humility.
experience)

SafalNiveshak.com
To compound wealth, you need to invest in businesses that are

deploying capital at a high rate of returns for a long period and
purchase them at reasonable prices. Since the time horizon of
compounding at the above average rate of return has an
exponential impact on wealth creation, it’s better to invest in a
business with little lower compounding rate but far higher
longevity of growth than in a business with higher compounding
Kuntal Shah
(Founding Partner,
rate but lower longevity.
SageOne Investment
Advisors)
Also, it follows that a long-term investment horizon is an edge in
obtaining superior returns as it allows the magic of compounding
to work. Time, as Warren Buffett says, is the friend of a wonderful
company and the enemy of a mediocre one. As we stand today
around 96% of Buffett’s fortune was created after his 50th
birthday and nearly 90% came after his 60th birthday.
SafalNiveshak.com
A great deal of investing success comes from temperament,

which is (largely) inborn. But every good investor I’ve ever met is
a learning machine – someone who eats information ravenously
and who is obsessed not by how much he already knows but by
how much he has yet to learn.
An underappreciated factor that great investors share, I believe,

Jason Zweig
(Investing & Personal
is that they relish being proven wrong. Most people dread
Finance Columnist – making mistakes with a kind of visceral horror. But great investors
The Wall Street Journal)
welcome making mistakes, because errors are opportunities to
learn. Whenever I encounter a professional investor with a track
record of outperformance who boasts only about what he got
right, I know I am in the presence of someone whose
overconfidence is dangerous, if not deadly.

SafalNiveshak.com
Learn from your own mistakes. Most people try to cover up their
mistakes, explain them away, or blame others. Those are defense
mechanisms that allow us to look in the mirror and sleep at night.
The problem is that they dramatically distort reality and lead to a

form of self-induced blindness. Reality is what it is, and no amount
of wishing will change it. I’ve learned to be brutal with myself.
Brent Beshore
(Founder and CEO,
adventur.es)

SafalNiveshak.com
You need humility to prevent yourself from overcomplicating

investing more than it needs to be and taking risks greater than
you’re able to handle.
Lack of humility always catches up to you. In markets you’ll

receive some return over the next 20 years, and most people
who try to front-load those returns into shorter periods of time will
Morgan Housel
(Partner, The
cough up whatever excess short-term returns they earn down
Collaborative Fund) the road -- reversion to the mean.
It’s very similar with humility. Most ego you have today will be
balanced out with humiliation down the road.

SafalNiveshak.com
The biggest risk for me is opportunity cost. Everything I buy and

do comes at the cost of not buying or doing something else. Talk
with elders about their regrets, and you’ll find they misunderstood
and poorly managed opportunity cost across their lifetimes.
I try to minimize time wasted on companies I’d never own at any

price. I try to minimize all the noise and useless activities. I try to
Sean Iddings
(Co-Founder,
only invest in the opportunities and activities that have the best
Intelligent Fanatics potential for future payoff.
Project)

SafalNiveshak.com
It absolutely helps to maintain an investment journal. No doubt

about it. The alternative is to be so rational that you’ll have no
capacity to lie to yourself. Also, I’m not a huge fan of my own
memory of decision making especially if the transaction has
happened a while ago.
Writing thoughts down before investing or selling helps us in not

Raunak Onkar
(Head of Research,
over criticizing mistakes and not over celebrating our good
PPFAS Mutual Fund) investment outcomes. It teaches us to appreciate the role of luck
as well.

SafalNiveshak.com
There is simply no substitute to having your own conviction in

every position you have. If you are riding on somebody else’s
conviction, first you would not be able to bet big and miss out on
the most important element of investing i.e., position sizing.
Secondly you can enter on someone’s conviction but you must

still ride the position through thick and thin yourself. Most cloners
Jatin Khemani
(Founder & CEO,
get scared out of a position when it moves +/-50%, instead of
Stalwart Advisors) averaging up/down.

SafalNiveshak.com
When you research a company, you can often boil down the
investment decision to a few key questions that you need to
answer about the business’ prospects. Sometimes those
questions are very hard to answer, and you will be tempted to
cut corners if another smart investor has bought the stock. This is
a classic mistake that I have made several times.
Jeff Gramm
(Hedge Fund
Not only do you end up buying a stock you should not have
Manager, Bandera bought, you end up owning a stock that you don’t understand
Partners)
as well as you need to. If you know a business inside and out, you
know what to do when it does not perform how you expect it to.
If you don’t know a company as well as you should, and then
something bad happens, it’s easy to compound the initial
mistake with another blunder.

SafalNiveshak.com
It takes effort and practice to get good at this “craft.”
Some ingredients of being a successful value investor are: Lots of

multi-disciplinary reading, building good understanding of
businesses (not just financials) in which we are invested, avoiding
mistakes in our larger positions (I try to do this by spending more
effort and trying to be amongst the best-informed analyst on
Naresh Katariya
those positions), and not getting carried away by fads of the
season.

SafalNiveshak.com
Hang out and interact with people better than you and you
cannot help but improve. And when I say better, I mean not only
in terms of intellectual horsepower, but in terms of morals, values,
ethics, character and discipline.
These are the attributes which ultimately lead to a very fulfilling

and satisfying life.
Gautam Baid
(Portfolio Manager –
Summit Global
Investments)

SafalNiveshak.com
It’s so easy to drift away from value investing and into some
lesser strategy, particularly when you first start out, because
value takes some time to deliver.
Over the long term, value really does seem to work best. And
remember, we live longer now. Many of us will see age 80, or 90.
The long term has become our term. So we shouldn’t trade as if
Kenneth Jeffrey
we had the lifespans of fruit flies.
Marshall
(Value Investor,
Teacher, Author –
Good Stocks Cheap)

SafalNiveshak.com
“I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest,
sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning
machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they
were when they got up and boy does that help, particularly
when you have a long run ahead of you.”
~ Charlie Munger
“Let no one be slow to seek wisdom when he is young nor

weary in the search of it when he has grown old. For no age is
too early or too late for the health of the soul [and mind].”
~ Epicurus

SafalNiveshak.com
Safal Niveshak (Hindi phrase for ‘successful investor’) is a movement to help

small investors become intelligent, independent, and successful in their stock
market investing decisions. Started in 2011, Safal Niveshak is now a community of
40,000+ dedicated readers across 100+ countries. The site has been ranked
among the best value investing blogs worldwide.
Safal Niveshak was founded by Vishal Khandelwal, who has 14+ years’
experience as a stock market analyst and investor, and 6+ years as an investing
coach. Through this platform, Vishal focuses on simplifying the art of investing
and the causes of human misjudgment when it comes to investing. He also
shares his experiences as an investor and lessons from some of the greatest
investors of all time. You can connect with Vishal on Twitter.
You can visit safalniveshak.com or write to [email protected] to know

more about this initiative and how you can benefit from it and/or support it.
More Ideas On
SafalNiveshak.com
Value Investing Almanack (VIA) is a premium newsletter, which brings you the best and
biggest ideas in value investing, human behaviour, and business analysis. It is a monthly
newsletter, where we cover the following –
1. Spotlight: Big ideas from Value Investing and why applying them in your investment
decision making will be a great deal
2. StockTalk: Thorough analysis of business models of listed Indian companies (without any
recommendations)
3. InvestorInsights: Interviews with experienced and upcoming value investors
4. Behaviouronomics: Deep analysis of human behaviour and how it impacts investment
decision making
5. BookWorm: Reviews of the best books on Value Investing and related subjects
6. Life 2.0: Practical and effective ideas on living a simple, sensible life
In short, there’s a great amount of learning packed in just one newsletter!
Apart from monthly issues, subscribers also receive one Special Report at the end of every
month, plus free access to our Financial Statement Analysis for Smart People course.
Click here to subscribe to VIA right away, and access all the ideas we’ve shared so far.
SafalNiveshak.com
SafalNiveshak.com
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that

an investor following the lessons / strategies outlined in this document will in fact
build wealth.

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What are some principles highlighted for building long-term wealth?

What are some principles highlighted for building long-term wealth?

What is Value Investing Almanack and what type of content does it cover?

What is Value Investing Almanack and what type of content does it cover?

SafalNiveshak.

Insights from Some of Today’s Leading Investment Minds

Believe In Long-Term Compounding 6 Learn To Say No 21

Dear Tribe Member,

To read detailed interviews of the investors profiled in this

Insights from Some of Today’s Leading Investment Minds

Let’s start right away…

In investing, you can end up on top simply by living a very long

You can do well by compounding for a long term by avoiding

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 6

If you want to be a better long-term investor, get rid of all

Retraining your mind to not care if a position is making a 52-

It is dangerous to read books especially on investing without

Beyond that, remember what Vedas say on multidisciplinary

Learn as much as you can about businesses. A lot of us have

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 9

My approach towards management is – you cannot do a good

And depending on the attractiveness of other variables, the

I am not bogged down by the idea of betting on a promoter

I don’t think there is a better starting point in investing than

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 11

Once I am broadly excited about a business, my major analysis

As part of my analysis, I avoid talking to co-investors who already

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 12

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 13

If valuation is the biggest factor for an investment, position-sizing

These are external factors that certainly need to be analyzed,

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 14

Discipline is one of the most important attributes of an investor.

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 15

I would suggest two ways to improve quality of decision making.

Gaurav Jalan Second, an emphasis on facts versus forecasting. At any given

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 16

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 17

Don’t ape anyone, because even if you ape someone’s

Instead of talking about and aspiring to be like Buffett, spend

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 18

Whatever I have read about great investors, is that the masterly

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 19

The big lesson in common stock investing is to buy great

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 20

Develop a mindset to say no and recognize the practical

Once we have that framework and a sort of no regret mindset,

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 21

Risk is an under-taught subject. In fact, it is surprising that it is not

The most dangerous four letter word in investing is “hope”. Hope

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 23

People underestimate vastly the role of luck in investing.

As I look back, I realize how important it is to be lucky. You can

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 24

To compound wealth, you need to invest in businesses that are

A great deal of investing success comes from temperament,

An underappreciated factor that great investors share, I believe,

Source: Value Investing Almanack | Page 26

The problem is that they dramatically distort reality and lead to a