Strained Stability

Climate Change and Regional Security in Southeast Asia

Perspective
-
Esther Babson
i
June 2018
BOARD OF DIRECTORS

The Honorable Gary Hart, Chairman Emeritus Admiral William Fallon, USN (Ret.)
Senator Hart served the State of Colorado in the U.S. Senate Admiral Fallon has led U.S. and Allied forces and played a
and was a member of the Committee on Armed Services leadership role in military and diplomatic matters at the highest
during his tenure. levels of the U.S. government.

Governor Christine Todd Whitman, Chairperson Raj Fernando

Christine Todd Whitman is the President of the Whitman Raj Fernando is CEO and founder of Chopper Trading, a
Strategy Group, a consulting firm that specializes in energy technology based trading firm headquartered in Chicago.
and environmental issues.

Nelson W. Cunningham, President of ASP

Nelson Cunningham is President of McLarty Associates, the Scott Gilbert
international strategic advisory firm headed by former White Scott Gilbert is a Partner of Gilbert LLP and Managing
House Chief of Staff and Special Envoy for the Americas Director of Reneo LLC.
Thomas F. “Mack” McLarty, III.

Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret.)

Brigadier General Stephen A. Cheney, USMC (Ret.)
Vice Admiral Gunn is the President of the Institute of Public
Brigadier General Cheney is the Chief Executive Officer of Research at the CNA Corporation, a non-profit corporation
ASP. in Virginia.

The Honorable Chuck Hagel

Norman R. Augustine
Chuck Hagel served as the 24th U.S. Secretary of Defense and
Mr. Augustine was Chairman and Principal Officer of the served two terms in the United States Senate (1997-2009). Hagel
American Red Cross for nine years and Chairman of the was a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations; Banking,
Council of the National Academy of Engineering. Housing and Urban Affairs; and Intelligence Committees.

Ambassador Jeffrey Bleich Lieutenant General Claudia Kennedy, USA (Ret.)

The Hon. Jeffery Bleich heads the Global Practice for Lieutenant General Kennedy was the first woman
Munger, Tolles & Olson. He served as the U.S. Ambassador to achieve the rank of three-star general in the United States
to Australia from 2009 to 2013. He previously served in the Army.
Clinton Administration.

Alejandro Brito The Honorable John F. Kerry

Alejandro Brito is President of Brito Development Group John Kerry is a distinguished fellow for global affairs at Yale
(BDG), LLP. In the last twenty years, Mr. Brito has overseen University. In 2013, Kerry was sworn in as the 68th secretary of
the design, construction, development and management of state of the United States. Kerry served for more than twenty-
over 1,500 luxury housing units in Puerto Rico. five years as a U.S. senator from Massachusetts.

The Honorable Donald Beyer General Lester L. Lyles, USAF (Ret.)

Congressman Donald Beyer is the former United States General Lyles retired from the United States Air Force after
Ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein, as well as a a distinguished 35 year career. He is presently Chairman of
former Lieutenant Governor and President of the Senate of USAA, a member of the Defense Science Board, and a member
Virginia. of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board.

Lieutenant General Daniel Christman, USA (Ret.) Dennis Mehiel

Lieutenant General Christman is Senior Vice Dennis Mehiel is the Principal Shareholder and Chairman of
President for International Affairs at the United U.S. Corrugated, Inc.
States Chamber of Commerce.

Robert B. Crowe Stuart Piltch

Robert B. Crowe is a Partner of Nelson Mullins Riley & Stuart Piltch is the Co-Founder and Managing Director
Scarborough in its Boston and Washington, DC offices. He of Cambridge Advisory Group, an actuarial and benefits
is co-chair of the firm’s Government Relations practice. consulting firm based in Philadelphia.

Lee Cullum
Ed Reilly
Lee Cullum, at one time a commentator on the PBS
NewsHour and “All Things Considered” on NPR, currently Edward Reilly is Global Chief Executive Officer of the Strategic
contributes to the Dallas Morning News and hosts “CEO.” Communications practice of FTI Consulting.

Nicholas Clark LtGen Norman Seip, USAF (Ret)

Nicholas Clark is the CEO and Executive Director of Lieutenant General Norman R. Seip, USAF (Ret) served in the
Alexium International. He is also co-founder and Managing Air Force for 35 years. His last assignment was Commander of
Partner at Viaticus Capital. 12th Air Force.
Climate Security In this Report:
The consequences of climate change will be multifaceted. Each region of the world will
face unique threats that range from extreme weather to rising sea levels to increased
drought. These threats will interact with other vulnerabilities to exacerbate existing
tensions. Southeast Asia is uniquely vulnerable to the growing threats of climate change.
Highly reliant on fishing and often living on the ocean’s edge, Southeast Asian coastal
communities there will face some of the worst impacts. Their high dependence on the
ocean and fisheries, both of which will be seriously affected by climate change, will drive
the overall security and stability of the region.

Interact:
Join our discussion on Twitter with the hashtag #ASPclimate
Discuss climate security in South East Asia with the author at @EstherBabson
Learn more about ASP at @amsecproject

IN BRIEF
• The coastal communities in Southeast Asia will face some of the worst impacts of
climate change with the temperatures predicted to increase up to 6⁰ Celsius by the end
of the 21st century and sea level rise predicted to displace millions of people and entire
countries.
• The secondary effects from climate change will impact community resiliency as increasing
ocean temperature and acidity force fish populations, a key source of sustenance and
livelihood in the region, to more hospitable waters.
• How communities adapt to the added stress of climate change will determine the future
stability and security of the community. Outcomes can be both positive and negative.
• In order to ensure regional stability, Southeast Asia must begin to plan for increased
migration and decreased community security. Bolstering community resiliency to these
threats will be critical for ensuring stability.

About the Author

Esther Babson is the Climate Security Program Manager at the American Security Project. She has a
Masters in Global Security Studies from Johns Hopkins University and is co-founder of the Climate
Security Fellows Group.

www.AmericanSecurityProject.org
 AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT

Introduction
Gone are the days when security threats meant
inter-state conflict. Globalization means that
security threats and solutions cross the globe within
minutes. From cyber-attacks to climate change, non-
traditional security threats are a growing concern.
The world no longer has the luxury of ignoring
crises outside of their borders. Because climate
change is intangible, it is a uniquely challenging
risk. Slow changes and indirect impacts make
identifying and addressing vulnerabilities difficult.
The consequences of climate change, though, will be
profound and multifaceted. Each region of the world
will face unique threats that range from rain events
to rising sea levels to deeper and longer droughts.
These changes will interact with local vulnerabilities
to exacerbate existing tensions.

Southeast Asia is uniquely vulnerable to the growing

threats of climate change. This region, which
includes Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and
Vietnam, is mainly tropical and includes a wide range of ethnicities and religions. While over 40% of the
population is Muslim, Buddhism and Christianity are also prominent.1 The region is highly dependent on
aquatic resources, both from fresh and salt water. This, combined with predicted climate changes, will threaten
coastal communities’ survival. These communities will have to adapt to a changed natural, economic, and
societal environment. How they adapt may alter the stability and security of the entire region.

Impacts of Climate Change on Southeast Asia

Impacts vary across the globe. In general, temperatures are rising, sea levels are surging, and storms are becoming
increasingly extreme. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assesses that the ocean is, and
will continue to be, a key absorber of much of the additional heat and carbon dioxide (CO2) caused by climate
change.2 Already, the ocean has “absorbed 93% of the extra energy from the enhanced greenhouse effect and
approximately 30% of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere.”3 As a result, the IPCC predicts that the
mean sea surface temperature may increase 3°C by 2100.4 The absorption of excess CO2 creates a chemical
process that causes water to become increasingly acidic. More acidic water harms the ability of shellfish to form
shells and exoskeletons.5 Changes in oceanic temperature and composition will also impact ocean dynamics
causing hypoxic, or oxygen-poor, areas. Warmer waters will support different species of fish, changing the
ecosystems which people rely on. These changes in temperature, acidity, salinity, or ocean composition will
alter species distribution and survival and, consequently, human security.

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A shift of even a few degrees in temperature could devastate local fisheries by undermining the viability of coral
reefs, the incubators of the world’s fish supply. Over 25% of marine life originates on the reefs built by coral.6
Today, Asia supports 40% of the world’s coral reef area, with the majority located in Southeast Asia.7 In recent
years, high sea surface temperatures have caused major coral bleaching events, killing the coral and devastating
the reef.8 While many fish species can move in order to adapt to temperature changes, coral cannot migrate
to cooler or less acidic environments. Any decline in coral reefs will affect fish stocks and the communities
dependent on those stocks.

Southeast Asia is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to dependence on subsistence
farming, fishing, and lower elevation. Already, temperatures have increased at a rate of .2⁰ Celsius per decade
since the 1960s with the number of hot days and warm nights increasing within the sub-region of Southeast
Asia.9 Those trends will continue with estimates predicting temperature increases of up to 6⁰ Celsius by the
end of the 21st century.10 Sea levels are also predicted to rise, which would endanger up to two thirds of Asia’s
cities (defined as having 1 million or more inhabitants) and submerging entire countries.11

Climate Change and the Impact on People and Communities

The effects of climate change on oceans and coastal environments will destabilize coastal communities in
Southeast Asia. Humans will be forced out of their homes, either by rising sea levels, depletion of fish stocks,
or repeated extreme weather. For island countries like the Republic of Maldives, the entire country could soon
be submerged. For others, the ocean will rise to a level that contaminates fresh water. Still others will suffer as
fish migration undermines food security.

Much of Southeast Asia is reliant on the ocean. Fisheries are a primary source of food and income for millions
of people and generate billions of dollars for the region.12 The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization assessed
that in 2014, “84% of the population engaged in the fisheries and aquaculture sector was in Asia…and of
the 18 million people engaged in fish farming, 94 percent were in Asia.”13 However, growing populations and
economies have increased demand for seafood, causing severe overfishing. In the Philippines alone, 10 out of
13 designated fishing grounds are overfished.14 Combined with the predicted changes in fish stocks due to
climate change, the future of Southeast Asian communities is at risk.

A U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) commissioned report outlines some of the most vulnerable states
in the region. This report found that Vietnam will lose up to 40,000 km² of land, devastating coastal fishing
communities and inundating rich farmland.15 Thailand and Indonesia will lose significant land along vital
deltas as well.16 These impacts reach beyond simply harming communities to impacting the very viability
of the state. An assessment of the vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on
fisheries found that Bangladesh and Cambodia were the most vulnerable to complete state collapse, due to
their lack of institutions and low capacity to adapt.17 Indonesia and Vietnam are also highly dependent but
have seen significant economic growth and increased stability. While strong institutions and economic growth
protects them from state collapse, individual subsistence farmers and fishers have no such protection, and may
be forced to move.18 Myanmar, for example, is unlikely to collapse, but is highly dependent on subsistence
farming or fishing.19 Myanmar lacks the infrastructure to support current and future migrating populations.
This will put additional stress on already highly populated cities. Whether impacting the entire economy or
just local subsistence fishers, changes in the oceans will impact community resilience and lead to a diverse set
of outcomes.

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Responding to the Threat: Adaptation in Southeast Asia

Planning for the future requires examining and predicting responses to climate stress. Adaptation measures can
be broken down into two subcategories: migration and economic shifts. This means that people could either
move (migration) or they could change their occupation (an economic shift). While some adaptation measures
fall into both categories, these subcategories show a clear split in the strategy needed to survive. A descriptive
example comes from fishing communities: some fishermen move away after the fish disappear, while others
instead turn to alternative occupations, ranging from small-scale manufacturing to piracy.

Migration is a legitimate and common adaptation mechanism for individuals or communities but can also lead
to instability for receiving communities. People migrate for a multitude of reasons and to different degrees;
some move internally within a country, others cross national boundaries, while others cross continents. All face
varying and uncertain outcomes. In some cases, migration can stimulate economic growth and development
as migrant workers help develop the host
country. Many migrants send money back to
their home families and communities through
remittances, driving their home economies.20
Cases have already been documented of
poor Vietnamese fisherman moving from
one province to another as off-shore fisheries
decline.21

Migration can also lead to instability in

areas with weak governance or pre-existing
tensions. Lack of employment opportunities,
housing options, or food can aggravate
tensions between the migrants and existing
A Cambodian fishing village affected by drought. Image credit: residents. Without institutions to manage and
Alex Berger / virtualwayfarer / Flickr. support the incoming migrants, frustration
can boil over.22 This is particularly likely if the
incoming migrants have pre-existing ethnic or social tensions with the host community.23 Climate change will
likely result in increased migration, fueling those underlying tensions. The NIC found that post 2030, “climate
change will increase prospects for conflicts within states.”24 Such an outcome is deeply concerning as many
Southeast Asian cities already face rapid urbanization with large, diverse urban populations.

For those who remain in their fishing communities, the situation may be even more challenging. In the
South China Sea, tensions are already high. Climate change will lead to fish migrating farther north into areas
China claims as their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).25 Furthermore, the increased buildup by the Chinese
military of the Spratly Archipelago has increased incidences between Chinese patrols and Vietnamese fishing
boats.26 As the fish stocks deplete, individuals will need to find alternative sources of income and sustenance.
Transitioning to farming is one possible solution depending on whether the inland community is resilient
to future changes. As glaciers melt and dams rise along the Mekong River Basin, downstream communities
such as Vietnam’s “rice basket” region will face increased stress and potential declines in production as rainfall
becomes more variable worldwide.27 Today in Vietnam, a major drought combined with sea level rise has
drawn more salt water inland, impacting both rice farming and fishing.28 This is a classic example of climate
change impacting multiple sectors and undermining community security.

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Even if arable land exists, transitioning to farming could increase competition over land, leading to conflict
between groups in a region rife with deeply rooted religious and ethnic differences. Myanmar is particularly at
risk due to the current humanitarian crisis after the Myanmar government’s ethnic cleansing and subsequent
fleeing of the Rohingya population.29 Cambodia is also vulnerable to instability due to the rapid expansion in
agriculture without the proper tools in place to promote efficiency and sustainability of the already declining
soil quality.30

Another alternative for the remaining communities is livelihood diversification by transitioning to small
manufacturing operations or selling goods, tenuous as it may be. Some communities may not have the natural
or economic resources to support such a change but there have been success stories where families successfully
adapted to changed economic environments.31 Diversification benefits the entire community by expanding
industry and providing new services.

Undermining Stability: Transnational Security Threats

In addition to the legitimate coping mechanisms, more sinister alternatives exist. Southeast Asia is home to
one of the primary shipping choke points in the world: The Strait of Malacca.

Up to 120,000 ships travel the strait every year,

including tankers carrying about 80% of all oil
imported by China and Japan.32 Off the coasts of
Malaysia and Indonesia, corruption is common
and law enforcement is overstretched, making
piracy low risk and high reward.33 In 2017, the
International Chamber of Commerce reported
at least two hijackings in the region and dozens
of attempted or successful boardings, making
Southeast Asia the region with the highest rate
of piracy in the world.34 The region is ripe for
an increase in attacks. Fishing communities
already have access to vessels and instability on
land can spill into the sea.
The Strait of Malacca. U.S. Energy Information Agency image.

Terrorism is another potential threat. Terror organizations are not new to Southeast Asia. The well-known
2002 Bali bombings were the beginning of a series of attacks in Indonesia from 2002-2009. After 2009,
improved counterterrorism capabilities and rivalry among extremist groups led to a decline in attacks with
no major urban terrorist incidents until a resurgence of violence in 2016 under the Islamic State in Iraq and
Syria (ISIS) banner.35 Joseph Chinyong Liow, Dean and Professor of Comparative and International Politics at
Nanyang Technological University Singapore, testified before Congress arguing that, “ISIS has emerged as the
single expression of the (terrorism) threat, in part, because of the speed with which it has gained popularity in
the region.”36 Still, he noted that while the developments are concerning, the threat should not be overstated
as so far no ISIS aligned group has “developed the capacity to mount catastrophic, mass casualty attacks in the
region.” While the process of radicalization is far from definite, increased ungoverned space allows criminals
and terrorists to recruit and flourish. The impacts of climate change may open new territory to these groups.

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Preparing for the Future of Climate Change in Southeast Asia

Climate change presents a direct threat to livelihoods and security in Southeast Asia. Climate change’s ability
to act as a threat multiplier makes dangerous outcomes more likely. The IPCC recognizes that climate change
may “exacerbate current socioeconomic and political disparities and add to the vulnerability of Southeast
Asia.”37 Such an outcome would destabilize a region critical to global trade. In addition, there is concern that
“the framing of climate change as a Western-generated phenomenon creates the potential for major anti-
Western backlashes over virtually any climate change-induced crisis that arises in the region.”38

Building resiliency and response capacity are critical to preparing for and combatting the impacts from climate
change. Migration policies and protections must be improved in preparation for the inevitable increases in
migration both internally and internationally. This requires both defining who are “climate refugees” and how
to manage the influx of future migrants.

There also needs to be increased monitoring and coordination to combat piracy and terrorism in the region.
High levels of distrust inhibit intelligence sharing and operations. Without communication, unsavory
actors can sneak through surveillance gaps. Recent efforts have been made to bolster coordination on anti-
piracy between once-rivals Indonesia and Malaysia.39 In addition, six Southeast Asian countries agreed to an
intelligence sharing pact to combat Islamist militants.40 Both are positive steps in the right direction

Ultimately, the key for managing these threats is capacity building. If the community has the resources to
prepare and respond, they are far less vulnerable to instability or terrorist recruitment. Solutions exist but it is
critical to develop local capabilities and resiliency to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Endnotes
1. World Atlas. “Religious Demographics of Southeast Asia.” https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/religious-demographics-of-
southeast-asian-nations-dependent-territories.html.
2. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., R. Cai, E.S. Poloczanska, P.G. Brewer, S. Sundby, K. Hilmi, V.J. Fabry, and S. Jung, 2014: The Ocean.
In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken,
M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N.
Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1655-1731.
3. Ibid.
4. Pörtner, H.-O., D.M. Karl, P.W. Boyd,W.W.L. Cheung, S.E. Lluch-Cota, Y. Nojiri, D.N. Schmidt, and P.O. Zavialov, 2014:
Ocean systems. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Con-
tribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field,
C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Geno-
va, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 411-484.
5. Ibid.

5
6. Hijioka, Y., E. Lin, J.J. Pereira, R.T. Corlett, X. Cui, G.E. Insarov, R.D. Lasco, E. Lindgren, and A. Surjan, 2014: Asia. In:
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II
to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken,
M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N.
Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1327-1370.
7. Ibid.
8. Ibid. Bleaching is when the algae living in corals are expelled, making the coral susceptible to death.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid.
12. DeRidder, Kim and Santi Nindang. “Southeast Asia Fisheries Near Collapse from Overfishing.” Asia Foundation. March
2018. https://asiafoundation.org/2018/03/28/southeast-asias-fisheries-near-collapse-overfishing/.
13. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department. “The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2016.” http://www.fao.org/3/a-
i5555e.pdf.
14. The Strait Times. “Battle to save dwindling fish stocks in S-E Asia.” August 31, 2017. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-
asia/battle-to-save-dwindling-fish-stocks-in-s-e-asia.
15. CENTRA Technology, Inc. and Scitor Corporation. “Southeast Asia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical
Implications.” January 2010. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/2010%20Conference%20Report_Southeast%20Asia_
The%20Impact%20of%20Climate%20Change%20to%202030.pdf.
16. Ibid.
17. Allison, Edward et al. “Vulnerability of National Economies to the Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries.” Fish and Fisher-
ies. 2009. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00310.x.
18. Ibid.
19. CENTRA Technology, Inc. and Scitor Corporation. “Southeast Asia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical
Implications.” January 2010. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/2010%20Conference%20Report_Southeast%20Asia_
The%20Impact%20of%20Climate%20Change%20to%202030.pdf.
20. Walmsley, Terrie et al. “Labor migration and economic growth in east and southeast Asia.” The World Bank. October 2013.
https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-6643.
21. United Nations. “Migration Resettlement and Climate Change in Vietnam: Reducing Exposure and Vulnerabilities to Cli-
matic Extremes and Stresses through Spontaneous and Guided Migration.” March 2014. http://www.undp.org/content/dam/
vietnam/docs/Publications/Migration%20&%20Climate%20change%20-%20Eng.pdf.
22. Null, Schuyler and Lauren Herzer Risi. “Navigating Complexity: Climate, Migration, and Conflict in a Changing World.
U.S. AID and Wilson Center. November 2016. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/navigating-complexity-climate-
migration-and-conflict-changing-world.
23. Ibid.
24. CENTRA Technology, Inc. and Scitor Corporation. “Southeast Asia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical
Implications.” January 2010. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/2010%20Conference%20Report_Southeast%20Asia_
The%20Impact%20of%20Climate%20Change%20to%202030.pdf.
25. I-Ching, Chen, et al. “Rapid Shifts of Species Associated with High levels of Climate Warming” Science, Vol 333 (2011).
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6045/1024.

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26. United Nations. “Migration Resettlement and Climate Change in Vietnam: Reducing Exposure and Vulnerabilities to Cli-
matic Extremes and Stresses through Spontaneous and Guided Migration.” March 2014. http://www.undp.org/content/dam/
vietnam/docs/Publications/Migration%20&%20Climate%20change%20-%20Eng.pdf.
27. CENTRA Technology, Inc. and Scitor Corporation. “Southeast Asia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical
Implications.” January 2010. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/2010%20Conference%20Report_Southeast%20Asia_
The%20Impact%20of%20Climate%20Change%20to%202030.pdf.
28. Châu, Văn. “Mekong Delta ready for fight against climate change.” Vietnam News. April 2018. http://vietnamnews.vn/soci-
ety/425898/mekong-delta-ready-for-fight-against-climate-change.html#u3RSZwUwyDHIJkFi.97.
29. Kuhn, Anthony. “’Deeply Disturbing’ Conditions for Rohingya in Myanmar, and those yet to return.” NPR. May 29, 2018.
https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2018/05/29/615101339/deeply-disturbing-conditions-for-rohingya-in-myanmar-and-
those-yet-to-return.
30. Open Development Cambodia. “Agriculture and Fishing.” March 2015. https://opendevelopmentcambodia.net/topics/
agriculture-and-fishing/.
31. Biggs, E. M., Boruff, B., Bruce, E., Duncan, J. M. A., Haworth, B. J., Duce, S., Horsley, J., Curnow, Jayne, Neef, A.,
McNeill, K., Pauli, N., Van Ogtrop, F., Imanari, Y. “Environmental livelihood security in Southeast Asia and Oceania: a
water-energy-food-livelihoods nexus approach for spatially assessing change.” International Water Management Institute and
CGIAR. April 2014. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
32. McCauley, Adam. “The Most Dangerous Waters in the World.” Time. 2014. http://time.com/piracy-southeast-asia-malacca-
strait/.
33. Ibid.
34. International Chamber of Commerce. “IMB Piracy and Armed Robbery Map 2017.” https://www.icc-ccs.org/index.php/
piracy-reporting-centre/live-piracy-map/piracy-map-2017.
35. Liow, Joseph Chinyong. “ISIS in the Pacific: Assessing Terrorism in Southeast Asia and the Threat to the Homeland.” Tes-
timony before the Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence Committee on Homeland Security United States
House of Representatives. April 27, 2016. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Liow-ISIS-in-the-Pacif-
ic-Full-Testimony.pdf.
36. Ibid.
37. Hijioka, Y., E. Lin, J.J. Pereira, R.T. Corlett, X. Cui, G.E. Insarov, R.D. Lasco, E. Lindgren, and A. Surjan, 2014: Asia. In:
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II
to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken,
M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N.
Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1327-1370.
38. CENTRA Technology, Inc. and Scitor Corporation. “Southeast Asia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical
Implications.” January 2010. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/2010%20Conference%20Report_Southeast%20Asia_
The%20Impact%20of%20Climate%20Change%20to%202030.pdf.
39. World Politics Review. “Why Southeast Asia Remains a Hotbed for Piracy.” February 8, 2018. https://www.worldpoliticsre-
view.com/trend-lines/24158/why-southeast-asia-remains-a-hotbed-for-piracy.
40. Reuters staff. “South-east Asian states launch intelligence-sharing pact to counter terror threat.” Straits Times. January 25,
2018. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/south-east-asian-states-launch-intelligence-pact-to-counter-islamist-threat.

7
The American Security Project (ASP) is a nonpartisan
organization created to educate the American public and the
world about the changing nature of national security in the 21st
Century.
Gone are the days when a nation’s security could be measured
by bombers and battleships. Security in this new era requires
harnessing all of America’s strengths: the force of our diplomacy;
the might of our military; the vigor and competitiveness of our
economy; and the power of our ideals.
We believe that America must lead in the pursuit of our common
goals and shared security. We must confront international
challenges with our partners and with all the tools at our disposal
and address emerging problems before they become security
crises. And to do this we must forge a bipartisan consensus here
at home.
ASP brings together prominent American business leaders,
former members of Congress, retired military flag officers,
and prominent former government officials. ASP conducts
research on a broad range of issues and engages and empowers
the American public by taking its findings directly to them via
events, traditional & new media, meetings, and publications.
We live in a time when the threats to our security are as complex
and diverse as terrorism, nuclear proliferation, climate change,
energy challenges, and our economic wellbeing. Partisan
bickering and age old solutions simply won’t solve our problems.
America – and the world - needs an honest dialogue about
security that is as robust as it is realistic.
ASP exists to promote that dialogue, to forge that consensus, and
to spur constructive action so that America meets the challenges
to its security while seizing the opportunities that abound.

www.americansecurityproject.org