Perceptions of U.S. Democracy Promotion Part One: Middle Eastern Views
Perceptions of U.S. Democracy Promotion Part One: Middle Eastern Views
Perceptions of U.S. Democracy Promotion Part One: Middle Eastern Views
DEMOCRACY PROMOTION
PART ONE: MIDDLE EASTERN VIEWS
DAVID M. DeBARTOLO
MAY 2008
ABOUT THE AUTHOR DAVID M. DeBARTOLO
David DeBartolo is Director of Dialogue Pro-
grams for the Project on Middle East Democracy
(POMED). As a Fulbright Fellow for 2006-7 in
Jordan, he researched the Iraq war’s impact on
economic growth and inflation in Jordan. De-
Bartolo is a joint J.D. / M.A. in Arab Studies can-
didate at Georgetown University, where in 2005
he received the Oxtoby Prize. After graduating
in 2003 from Harvard University, where he was
editorial chair of The Harvard Crimson, DeBartolo
worked on Palestinian political party develop-
ment in East Jerusalem and Ramallah for the Na-
tional Democratic Institute. He also worked for
Amideast, teaching English to Palestinian schol-
arship recipients, as well as for Dr. Marwan Awar-
tani of Birzeit University. In 2002, he attended the
Anti-Defamation League’s Finkelstein Memorial
Study Mission to Israel for college journalists and
he later spoke at the ADL’s national convention.
Introduction..................................................2
Conclusions................................................12
Polls Cited..................................................14
Middle Easterners desire democracy the situation they see in Iraq, regardless of
and political reform, as the polling data in the fact that democratic elections were held
this paper demonstrate. Nevertheless, they there. When no weapons of mass destruc-
are deeply critical of American involvement tion were found, the administration tried
in reform in the region. Middle Eastern- to justify the war ex post facto as a war for
ers nearly universally greet any mention democracy, thereby conflating “democracy
of American promotion of democracy with promotion” with war in many Middle East-
skepticism and suspicion, if not outright erners’ minds. American calls for democra-
hostility. cy in other states are often interpreted as the
This widespread distrust is a legacy prelude to war.
of three things: America’s historic support And in the early 1990s, America tac-
for Arab autocrats, the conflation of democ- itly accepted the Algerian military’s annul-
racy promotion with the Iraq war, and the ment of an Islamist election victory, setting
perceived unwillingness of America to ac- a precedent of not accepting democratic out-
cept democratic outcomes. comes that were not in its self-interest. The
Historic U.S. support for friendly Bush administration’s response to Hamas’s
Arab autocrats continues to this day. The victory in the Palestinian elections last year
U.S. has a tight diplomatic and military al- has reinforced that perception. America’s
liance with the absolute monarchy in Saudi refusal to engage the most freely and fairly
Arabia. Middle Easterners are well aware elected Arab government is interpreted by
that Egypt and Jordan receive millions of many in the region as meaning that only
dollars in American assistance annually. Ira- U.S.-friendly democratic outcomes are le-
nians remember America’s staunch support gitimate. The American distinction between
for the Shah, and its sponsorship of a coup recognizing the electoral outcome as legiti-
against democratically elected prime minis- mate, which it has done, and engaging a
ter Mohammed Mossadegh in 1953. Amer- Hamas government, which it has not, is not
ica’s continuing relationships with Middle accepted in the Middle East.
Eastern autocrats make U.S. pro-democracy
rhetoric appear inconsistent with reality, and
thus skeptical Middle Easterners search for
ulterior American motives.
Since 2003, many Middle Easterners
associate U.S. “democracy promotion” with
America’s occupation of Iraq. Needless to
say, no Middle Easterners want to imitate
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The World Values Survey is a single survey administered in a wide variety of countries across the world, making data from each country comparable.
Results have been reported four times since 1985, with the most recent report in 2005.%� In the Middle East, the World Values Surveys referred to in this
paper were carried out in Egypt in 2000; Iran in 2000; Iraq in 2004; Jordan in 2001; Morocco �� in 2001; Saudi Arabia in 2003; Turkey in 2001. The U.S.
survey was carried out in 1999. For each question, crosstabs are used, by “samples of [country].”
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World Values Survey, question E117: “I’m going to describe various types of political systems and ask what you think about each as a way of governing
�� way of governing this country? Having a democratic political
this country. For each one, would you say it is a very good, fairly good, fairly bad or very bad
system.” '�
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World Values Survey, question E123: “I’m going to read off some things that people sometimes say about a democratic political system. Could you please
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tell me if you agree strongly, agree, disagree or disagree strongly, after I read each#one of them? Democracy may have problems but it’s better than any
other form of government.” &�
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3 PERCEPTIONS OF U.S. DEMOCRACY PROMOTION
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Figure 2: Democracy Has Problems, But Is Best Form of Government
■ Very good ■ Fairly good ■ Fairly bad ■ Very bad
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Moroccans
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Iraqis (51.2%) who strongly agree that de- Gaza, after the election of Hamas in January
mocracy%�is better than any other form of gov- 2006, Figure 3b shows that respondents in
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ernment. See Figure 2. In every country, the 2007 were significantly more optimistic about
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number$�of people who responded positive- whether democracy would work for them
ly4 exceeded 69%, including Jordan (89.9%), than they had been in 2003, the last time this
Turkey ��(88.3%), Saudi Arabia (74.2%), and question was asked there. From 2006-2007,
Iran#(69.2%).
'� however, there was an erosion of optimism
In 2007, substantial majorities in among people in Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, and
Egypt, Jordan,
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Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Lebanon about how well democracy would
and the&�Palestinian Territories said that de- work.
mocracy��was not just a “Western way of do- It is important to note, however, that
ing things,” and could work well in their while Middle Easterners like the idea of de-
countries.
�� 5 See Figures 3a and 3b. Time-se- mocracy, they generally dislike American
ries data�show that from 1999-2005, in most ideas about democracy.6 See Figure 4. From
of the countries surveyed, people became 2002-2007, sizeable majorities in Turkey, Jor-
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Figure 3a: Can Democracy Work Here?
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5 PERCEPTIONS OF U.S. DEMOCRACY PROMOTION
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Figure 4: Like/Dislike U.S. Ideas about Democracy
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Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, “Final 2007 Trends Topline.” June 27, 2007.
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Territories disliked U.S. ideas about democ- of Jordan poll in July 2006 identified “civil
racy; the contest was only close in Kuwait rights and political liberties” as one of the �
and Lebanon. The trend-lines are negative top three things that democracy means to
in every country in the region for which them.7 Likewise, respondents ranked Amer-
time-series data is available, except for Jor- ica, Israel and Lebanon as more democratic
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dan, where people are increasingly open to than their own country, Jordan, a finding
U.S. ideas about democracy. The data indi- that would be expected to correspond with
cates that Middle Easterners do not believe Western views.8
Americans have a monopoly on the meaning In other ways, Middle Eastern inter-
of democracy; they like the concept but dis- pretations of democracy may differ signifi-
agree with America’s interpretation of it. cantly from Western ideas of democracy. For
In arguing that Middle Easterners example, a Gallup poll found that more than
prefer democracy, it is worth analyzing what 65% of respondents in each Middle Eastern
Middle Easterners perceive democracy to country surveyed, with the exception of
be. In many cases, Middle Easterners mean Turkey, wanted the shari’a (Islamic law) to
substantially the same thing as Westerners be at least a source, if not the only source, of
when they discuss democracy. In Jordan, for legislation.9 In Egypt and Jordan, majorities
example, 57% of respondents to a University wanted the shari’a to be the only source of
7
Other options included “justice & equality;” “development,” and “security & stability.” “Democracy in Jordan 2006” public opinion poll, Center for Strategic
Studies, University of Jordan, p. 3. The “Democracy in Jordan 2006” poll was conducted during June 27 – July 1, 2006. It surveyed 1,115 respondents
with a margin of error of +/-3%.
8
“Democracy in Jordan 2006,” p. 5.
9
Gallup World Poll, “Islam and Democracy,” 2006. The Middle Eastern countries in which this question was asked are Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Iran, Turkey,
and Lebanon. Question: “In general, which of these statements comes closest to your point of view? Sharia must be the only source of legislation; sharia
must be a source of legislation, but not the only source; sharia should not be a source of legislation.”
legislation. The same poll, however, found are��similarly high for the importance of the
the respondents almost unanimous in de- freedom
� of the press, freedom of worship,
siring constitutionally protected freedom of freedom of speech (with the exception of Ku-
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speech10 and having little enthusiasm for reli- wait), and an independent judiciary.13
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gious leaders having a direct role in drafting When forced to choose between a
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their country’s constitution.11 Islamic schol- strong leader and a democratic government
ars and Islamist movements differ widely (surely a false choice), Middle Easterners
on what constitutes the shari’a, whether and are more evenly split, but most still prefer
how it can be updated to accord with a mod- a democratic government.14 See Figure 6.
ern environment, and who has the authority
to do so.
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Figure 6: Strong Leader or Democratic Government?
■ Strong leader ■ Democratic Government
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Figure 5: Importance of Two-Party Elections
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Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, “Final 2007 Trends Topline.” Oct. 4, 2007.
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in any Middle Eastern country disagreed'��#��#���#�$�������
with protecting freedom of speech, defined as “allowing all citizens to ���
express their opinions on political, social, and economic issues of the day.” Gallup World Poll, “Islam and Democracy,” 2006. Question: “Suppose that ���
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someday you were asked to help draft a new constitution for a new country. As I read you a list of possible provisions that might be included in a new
constitution,
!�� would you tell me whether you would probably agree or not agree with the inclusion of each of these provisions? Freedom of speech.”
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At least 50% of respondents in each country said they desired religious leaders to have no direct role in the constitution-drafting process. Gallup �
World
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Poll, “Islam Democracy,” 2006. Question: “In the area of drafting the country’s constitution, do you think you would probably recommend that the role
of religious
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Pew Global Attitudes Project, “Final 2007 Trends Topline.” Oct. 4, 2007. Question 47b: “How important is it to you to live in a country where honest
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elections are held regularly with a choice of at least two political parties?”
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Global Attitudes Project, “Final 2007 Trends Topline.” Oct. 4, 2007. Questions 47a-f.
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� Attitudes Project, “Final 2007 Trends Topline.” Oct. 4, 2007. Question 51: “Some feel that we should rely on a democratic form of govern-
ment to solve our country’s problems. Others feel that we should rely on a leader with a strong hand to solve our country’s problems. Which comes closer
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ronmental protection.15 Likewise, when giv- ties,��
and in both Iran and Saudi Arabia about
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the straight-up choice in 2007 between a 50%��of the people chose it first or second.
“good democracy” and a “strong economy,” � �� When the regional results are aver- �
more� Middle Easterners in every country aged together and weighted by population,
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surveyed (except Kuwait) chose the latter.16 the political reform option comes in third.
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percentage of people chose political reform – would choose political reform as one of their
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“people have more say about how things are two top priorities, while nearly as many
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done” � – as their top priority, including 20.2% as would choose “strong defense forces”
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in Iran and 19.6% in Saudi Arabia.17 See Fig- (44.5%).18 See Figure 8.
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ure 7. In Iran, this exceeded the number of Middle Easterners are not happy �
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litical reform as one of their top two priori- how democracy has been developing, and a
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World Values Survey, question E001: “People sometimes talk about what the aims of this country should be for the
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some of the goals which different people would give top priority. Would you please say which one of these you, yourself, consider the most important?”
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Pew Global Attitudes Project, “Final 2007 Trends Topline.” Oct. 4, 2007. Question 50: “If you had to choose between a good democracy and a strong
economy, which would you say is more important?”
17
World Values Survey, question E001: “People sometimes talk about what the aims of this country should be for the next ten years. On this card are listed
some of the goals which different people would give top priority. Would you please ��� say which one of these you, yourself, consider the most important?”
18
Author’s calculations based on World Values Survey data.
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World Values Survey, question E110: “On the whole are you very satisfied, rather satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with the way democracy
is developing in our country?” ��
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In Egypt, 35.5% of the citizens surveyed said that they were “very satisfied” with the way democracy has been developing.
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This question was not asked in Saudi Arabia.
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PART ONE: MIDDLE EASTERN VIEWS 8
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“promotion of democracy” had a posi-
■ Very satisfied ■ Rather satisfied ■ Not very satisfied ■ Not at all satisfied tive ��
effect on their overall opinion of Ameri-
ca, and the percentage of respondents saying
that U.S. democracy promotion had a nega-
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Figure 10: Views of U.S. Democracy Promotion
■ Positive ■ Negative
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plurality of Moroccans (38.2%) said that they ��
were “not very satisfied” with democracy’s ��
progression
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in Morocco. Majorities said that �
they��were “rather satisfied” with democratic ������������ ����� � � �� � ���� ���� �
development in Iran (59%), Jordan (62.5%)
and ��
Egypt (59.3%).
Source: Zogby International, “Five Nation Survey of the Middle East,” December 2006.
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ure 11. In the same question, however, only as inherently undemocratic. Outside Iraq,
7% of Saudis said that America’s promotion the administration’s verbal commitments to
of democracy had a positive impact on their freedom and democracy were insufficient
overall opinion of the U.S. – compared��������
to to�� �����
convince Middle Easterners that the U.S.
79% who said the opposite. With the excep- genuinely supported democratic reforms
tion of Egypt, this stark divergence between among America’s autocratic allies.
admiration for American democracy and for For example, in one 2004 poll, �� a
American democracy promotion can be seen majority of respondents in each of the five
in each
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country. countries surveyed said that the U.S. does
�� not “support the practice of democracy in
�� the world.”26 In Syria, Palestine and Egypt,
IV. Middle
%
�� Easterners believe that the U.S. does the percentage of respondents saying that
not sincerely support democratic reform. the U.S. supports democracy was less than
30%.27
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�Lastly, and perhaps most impor- To most observers in the region, the
tantly, there is a widespread and powerful Bush administration’s about-face in early
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perception in the Middle East that the U.S. is 2006 after Hamas was elected merely con-
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not sincere in supporting democratic reform. firmed what they already believed: that the
While the Bush administration trumpets its U.S. promotes democracy mostly where de-
creation of “democracy” in Iraq, most Mid- mocracy serves U.S. interests, rather than
dle Easterners view an American occupation promoting it consistently across the region.28
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26
Center for Strategic Studies, University of Jordan, “Revisiting the Arab Street: Research from Within,” 2005, p. 70. Table V.1: Attitudes toward the Western
Foreign Policies, National Samples.” Survey was conducted from March – June 2004 in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Egypt. Each national sample
consisted of 1,200 people.
27
“Revisiting the Arab Street,” Figure V.2: Percentage of Respondents Agreeing with Statements about U.S. Foreign Policy, by Sample, p. 72.
28
Pew Global Attitudes Project, “Final 2007 Trends Topline.” June 27, 2007. Question 32: “And which comes closer to describing your view? The United
States promotes democracy wherever it can, or the United States promotes democracy ��� ��
mostly where it serves its interests?”
Figure 12: The U.S. promotes democracy... to democracy” in Jordan.30 See Figure 13.
■ Mostly where it serves its interests ■ Wherever it can
Eleven percent
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can opposition to democracy as the largest
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obstacle, trailing only “regional instability”
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at 17.6% and “administrative ���� � and financial ����$ �������
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�� corruption” at 12.7%. ������� �
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Figure 13: Obstacles to Democracy in Jordan
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&% ■ Fear of the alternative homeland for the Palestinians in Jordan
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■ Ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict
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�) ■ The U.S. does not want democracy in Jordan
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■ Administrative and financial corruption
�( ■ Regional instability
Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, “Final 2007 Trends Topline.” June 27, 2007.
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See Figure 12. This belief, a logical response
to America’s position on Hamas and its,+����������"��
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cent embrace of undemocratic
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engenders skepticism about U.S. consistency (
and credibility as a supporter of political re-
form.29 '
29
Most Americans have few illusions, either, about U.S. democracy promotion efforts, though slightly more Americans believe the U.S. is consistently pro-
democracy than do Middle Easterners. In the same poll, 30% of Americans said that the U.S. promotes democracy wherever it can; 63% said that the
U.S. promotes democracy mostly where it serves its interests.
30
“Democracy in Jordan 2006,” p. 8. Other responses to the question were “fear of Islamist control of parliament” (4.9%); “presence of tribalism in society”
(4.9%); “lack of political elites’ desire to have democracy in Jordan” (4.5%); “lack of state seriousness to achieve democracy” (4.5%); “incompatibility of
democracy with the society’s culture” (4.4%); “society’s lack of readiness to practice democracy” (4%); “lack of economic elites’ desire to have democracy
in Jordan” (3%); “ongoing instability in Iraq” (2.5%); and “lack of democracy in neighboring countries” (1.7%).
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