Scribd
Upload
147 views14 pages

ML-Aided Simulation: A Conceptual Framework For Integrating Simulation Models With Machine Learning

ML-Aided Simulation: A Conceptual Framework for Integrating Simulation Models with Machine Learning Paper presented at ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS) https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=3200933 Authors: Mahmoud Elbattah and Owen Molloy National University of Ireland Galway

Uploaded by

Mahmoud Elbattah
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
147 views14 pages

ML-Aided Simulation: A Conceptual Framework For Integrating Simulation Models With Machine Learning

ML-Aided Simulation: A Conceptual Framework for Integrating Simulation Models with Machine Learning Paper presented at ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS) https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=3200933 Authors: Mahmoud Elbattah and Owen Molloy National University of Ireland Galway

Uploaded by

Mahmoud Elbattah
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 14

ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

ML-Aided Simulation: A Conceptual Framework for


Integrating Simulation Models with Machine Learning
Mahmoud Elbattah, Owen Molloy
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Integrating M&S with ML: Why, When, How?

Image Source:
Robinson, S. (2004). Simulation: The Practice of Model Development and Use. Chichester: Wiley. 2
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Basic View on Systems & Simulations

Source: Zeigler, B.P. and Sarjoughian, H.S., 2012. Guide to modeling and simulation of systems of systems.
Springer Science & Business Media. 3
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Motivational Questions

• How simulation models can learn about changes in the actual


system behaviour with minimal human input?
• Is it possible to integrate simulation models with ML models to
enable that learning process to happen in an automated
manner? If so, how?
• Can the integration with ML lead to a higher level of confidence
in simulations, given by a more measurable accuracy of ML
models?

4
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Key Idea 1:
Learning to Predict the System Behaviour

5
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Key Idea 2:
Identify Predictable Influential Variables

• Influential Variable: A variable that has a significant influence


on the system behaviour with respect to the question(s) of
interest, whereas the variation of that variable can lead to a
change in policy, strategy, or decision-making.

6
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Key Idea 2:
Identify Predictable Influential Variables (cont’d)

7
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Key Idea 2:
Identify Predictable Influential Variables (cont’d)

8
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Key Idea 3:
Incremental Learning = Adaptive Behaviour

A Basic Feedback Loop 1

Feedback Loops Aided by ML.

Source: Forrester, J.W., 1968. Principles of Systems, Text and Workbook, Wright-Allen Press-US. 9
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Key Idea 3:
Incremental Learning = Adaptive Behaviour (cont’d)

10
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

How This Can Be Useful?


• The power of learning from data is that the entire process can
be automated with minimal, or without, involvement of human
input.
• This can be useful for modeling dynamic systems that exist in
rapidly changing environments (Concept Drift).
• Realising “self-adaptive” simulation models that can adapt their
behaviour based on ML predictions.
• May help reduce the epistemic uncertainty1 attributed to the
subjective interpretation of system knowledge.
• Works effectively in situations where the system behaviour can
be largely described and learned by examples.

Source: Oberkampf, W.L., DeLand, S.M., Rutherford, B.M., Diegert, K.V. and Alvin, K.F., 2002. Error and uncertainty in modeling
and simulation. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 75(3), pp.333-357. 11
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Further Directions: More Complex ML for More


Complex Systems

12
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

Closing Thought

• Machine Learning: The subfield of computer science that


gives computers the ability to learn without being explicitly
programmed (Arthur Samuel 1959).

• ML-Aided Simulations: Simulation models given the


ability to adapt to new knowledge without being explicitly
informed by modellers.

Source: Samuel, A.L., 1959. Some Studies in Machine Learning Using the Game of Checkers. IBM Journal of Research and
Development, 3(3), pp.210-229. 13
ACM 2018 Conference on Principles of Advanced Discrete Simulation (PADS)

THANK YOU!
Mahmoud Elbattah
[email protected]

You might also like