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J Surg Res. 2012 March ; 173(1): 31–37. doi:10.1016/j.jss.2011.04.059.

Predictors of Positive Head CT Scan and Neurosurgical

Procedures After Minor Head Trauma
Mehreen Kisat, MBBS1,2, Syed Nabeel Zafar, MBBS, MPH2, Asad Latif, MD3, Cassandra V.
Villegas, MPH1, David T. Efron, MD1, Kent A. Stevens, MD, MPH1, Elliott R Haut, MD1, Eric
B. Schneider, PhD1, Hasnain Zafar, MBBS, FRCS2, and Adil H. Haider, MD, MPH1

1Center for Surgery Trials and Outcomes Research, Department of Surgery, The Johns Hopkins
University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland 2Department of Surgery, Aga Khan University
Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan 3Department of Anesthesia and Critical Care Medicine, The Johns
Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland

Abstract
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Background—There continues to be an ongoing debate regarding the utility of Head CT scans

in patients with a normal Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) after minor head injury. The objective of
this study is to determine patient and injury characteristics that predict a positive head CT scan or
need for a Neurosurgical Procedure (NSP) among patients with blunt head injury and a normal
GCS.
Materials and Methods—Retrospective analysis of adult patients in the National Trauma Data
Bank who presented to the ED with a history of blunt head injury and a normal GCS of 15. The
primary outcomes were a positive head CT scan or a NSP. Multivariate logistic regression
controlling for patient and injury characteristics was used to determine predictors of each
outcome.
Results—Out of a total of 83,566 patients, 24,414 (29.2%) had a positive head CT scan and
3,476 (4.2%) underwent a NSP. Older patients and patients with a history of fall (as compared to a
motor vehicle crash) were more likely to have a positive finding on a head CT scan. Male patients,
African-Americans (as compared to Caucasians) and those who presented with a fall were more
likely to have a NSP.
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Conclusions—Older age, male gender, ethnicity and mechanism of injury are significant
predictors of a positive finding on head CT scans and the need for neurosurgical procedures. This
study highlights patient and injury specific characteristics that may help in identifying patients
with supposedly minor head injury who will benefit from a head CT scan.

Keywords
Head Injury; Outcomes; Ethnicity; Gender; Age; Disparities; Multivariate Regression; Blunt
Trauma

© 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Author for correspondence and reprints: Adil H. Haider, MD, MPH Center for Surgery Trials and Outcomes Research, Department of
Surgery The Johns Hopkins School of Medicine 600 N. Wolfe St. Halsted 610 Baltimore, MD 21212 [email protected].
Publisher's Disclaimer: This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our
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 Kisat et al. Page 2

Introduction
In the United States, approximately one million patients with head injuries are seen every
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year in the Emergency Department (ED). More than 80% of these injuries are considered
minor. 1-3 An estimated 10% of patients with minor head injury yield positive results on a
CT scan, and less than 1% subsequently require a neurosurgical intervention.4-6 The rate of
intracranial lesions on a CT scan is even lower for patients with a normal score of 15 on the
Glasgow Coma Scale (6-9%).7-9 Thus, the overwhelming majority of head CT scans
performed among patients with minor head injury in the ED are negative. Ascertainment of
patients who will benefit from a head CT after injury remains a challenge.

Several studies have focused on evaluating clinical features that may identify minor head
injury patients who would benefit from neuroimaging.4, 6, 10, 11 Two such prediction rules
have arisen from The New Orleans study and the Canadian CT head rule study.4, 6 The New
Orleans study was limited to patients with a normal GCS score of 15, whereas the Canadian
CT head rule study included patients with a GCS score of 13-15. Both rules have
demonstrated 100% sensitivity in identifying patients who required neurosurgical
intervention, as well as most patients with traumatic intracranial findings on a CT scan, in
internal and external validation studies. 12-14 However, both are only applicable to patients
with minor head injury who experienced a loss of consciousness or amnesia. In contrast, the
CHIP (CT in head injury patients) study developed a prediction rule for the selective use of
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CT in all patients with minor head injury with or without loss of consciousness and a GCS
score of 13 to 14, or with a GCS score of 15 and at least one risk factor (for example, deficit
in short term memory, amnesia of the traumatic event and post-traumatic seizure, among
others). 11 However, there is still continuing debate about which patients with mild head
injury and normal mental status require imaging.

At present, there are no guidelines to suggest which patients with a GCS of 15 should
receive a head CT based on mechanism of injury or patient characteristics alone. The role of
head CT in patients with minor head injury and normal GCS remains controversial. The
objective of this study was to identify patient and injury characteristics that predict a
positive head CT scan or a need for neurosurgical procedure in patients with blunt head
injury and a GCS of 15.

Methods
This study was a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of all patients with blunt head injury
in the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB; version 7.1) between 2002 and 2006. The
NTDB is maintained by the American College of Surgeons and consists of approximately
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1.8 million trauma incidents contributed by more than 900 trauma centers in the United
States and its territories. As data reporting to the NTDB is voluntary, some institutions did
not routinely report head CT scan results. Thus, we limited our study to patients from
hospitals that submitted data on results of head CT scan in the ED along with the more
routinely reported hospital data.

All patients 16 years or older who presented to the ED with minor head injury were
included. This study defined minor head injury as history of blunt head injury and a GCS of
15. Patients with head injury were identified using Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) code for
the head AIS divides the body into six regions (head and neck, face, chest, abdomen, pelvis
and extremities and general) and classifies the severity of injuries in each region based on
clinical experience (1=minor; 2=moderate; 3=severe, not life-threatening; 4=severe, life
threatening, survival probable; 5=critical, survival uncertain; 6=fatal). Patients with an
International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 9 E Code commensurate with a blunt trauma

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mechanism were included. The two primary outcomes investigated were: 1) positive head
CT scan and 2) need for neurosurgical procedure (NSP). CT scan results were documented
as positive or negative by the reporting hospital. Patients who underwent a neurosurgical
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procedure were identified by ICD 9 Procedure codes and were inclusive of both diagnostic
and therapeutic procedures. Patients were further categorized into patients who had a
therapeutic procedure and patients who had a diagnostic procedure as shown in Table 1.

Patient demographics included age, gender and race/ethnicity.15 We used Abbreviated

Injury Score (AIS) for head to calculate the severity of head injury and the Injury Severity
Score (ISS) to calculate the overall injury intensity. Other injury characteristics included
presence of shock at admission (systolic blood pressure < 90 mm Hg) and mechanism of
injury.16 Mechanism of injury was categorized into motor vehicle crash, fall and others
(pedal cyclist, pedestrian struck by motor vehicle, alternate means of transport, motorcyclist
etc).17 Mechanisms such as cyclist, pedestrian struck and motor cyclists were grouped
together for model parsimony. Insurance status was also added to the model to control for
differences in outcomes based on the reported insurance status (insured versus uninsured).18
Finally, year of admission, geographical location and level of the trauma center were also
added.

Student’s t test was used to compare continuous variables and x2 was used to compare
categorical variables for univariate analysis. Multivariate logistic regression was then used
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to determine the independent predictors of a positive head CT scan or a NSP and their
effects, adjusted for potential confounders. The final model included the following variables:
age, gender, ethnicity, severity of head injury, overall injury intensity, presence of shock on
admission, mechanism of injury, insurance status, year of admission and geographical
location and level of the trauma center. To control for the potential differences in treatments
and procedures between various facilities, clustering by facility ID was included during the
multivariate analysis.19 To ensure that missing data did not bias the results, a sensitivity
analysis using multiple imputations was also performed.20 All analyses were carried out in
Stata/MP version 11 (Stata, College Station, TX), and statistical significance was defined as
a p value of less than .05

Results
There were 1,862,348 patient cases in the NTDB 7.1. Of these, 105,469 patients (age 16 and
older) presented to the ED with blunt head injury and a GCS of 15. After excluding patients
with missing head CT scan results, 83,566 patients were available for univariate analysis.
Complete data on all variables was available for 70,647 patients and these were included in
the final regression models. Figure 1 outlines patient selection.
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Table 2 demonstrates the demographic distribution of the study population. The median age
was 39 years (interquartile range (IQR): 24-55 years). The majority of patients were male
(66.7%). In terms of ethnicity, this sample consisted of 67% Caucasians, 14% African-
Americans, and 9% Hispanics. The median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 10 (IQR: 5-17).
64% of patients had an AIS for head of 1 or 2. 1.6% of our patients presented with shock.
The most common mechanism of injury was motor vehicle crash (60%). Insured patients
accounted for 77% of the study population. Patients were predominantly admitted to Level I
and II trauma centers (52% and 29% respectively).

Out of a total of 83,566 patients, 24,414 (29.2%) had a positive CT scan and 3,476 (4.2%)
subsequently underwent a neurosurgical procedure. Of these, 2,088 patients (2.5%)
underwent a therapeutic procedure while the rest (1.7%) underwent a diagnostic procedure.
The overall mortality was 1.5% (1,218/83,566). Amongst patients who had a positive head

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CT scan, 3% (732/24,414) died during hospital stay and approximately 7% (143/2088) of

the patients who subsequently underwent a therapeutic procedure died during hospital stay.
Tables 3 and 4 demonstrate the results of the univariate analysis for both outcomes, positive
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head CT scan and neurosurgical procedure, respectively. Age, ethnicity and mechanism of
injury are significant on univariate analysis for both outcomes. In addition, insurance status
and male gender are significantly associated with a positive CT scan and undergoing a
neurosurgical procedure, respectively.

Table 5 demonstrates the results of the multivariate logistic regression model for both
outcomes: a positive CT scan or a neurosurgical procedure. After adjusting for patient,
injury and demographic factors, we found that age and fall as a mechanism of injury are
independent predictors of a positive CT scan. As age increased in increments of 10, the odds
of a positive CT scan increased up to a maximum of 1.81 for patients 76-84 years old as
compared to patients aged 16-25 years. Patients who presented with a history of fall had
increased odds of a positive CT scan as compared to those with a history of motor vehicle
crash (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.43-1.72).

In comparison, male gender, African-American ethnicity and fall as a mechanism of injury

were independent predictors of the need for a NSP. We performed a subgroup analysis to
identify if there were separate predictors of therapeutic and diagnostic neurosurgical
procedures. Male patients (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.22-1.54) and patients with a history of fall
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(OR, 1.84; CI 1.61-2.10) were more likely to get a therapeutic neurosurgical procedure. In
comparison, African-American patients (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.14-1.56) were more likely to
get a diagnostic neurosurgical procedure, while older patients (age greater than 75 years)
and patients without insurance (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.98) were less likely to get a
diagnostic procedure. We also looked at each ethnicity separately to determine if there were
gender discrepancies and found that male Caucasians had increased odds of getting a NSP as
compared to female Caucasian patients. No such effect was observed for African-American
and Hispanic patients.

Sensitivity analysis using multiple imputation to account for the approximately 16% of co-
variate data that was missing yielded results that were qualitatively similar to the non-
imputed results. Only very minor differences in odds ratios were noticed during multivariate
logistic regression analyses on both the imputed and non-imputed datasets. No statistically
significant findings changed and only the non-imputed results are reported.

Discussion
This study reviewed 83,566 patients in the National Trauma Data Bank with blunt head
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injury and a normal GCS on presentation to the ED. Of these, 29.2% of the patients with
mild head injury had a positive CT scan, and 4.2% subsequently underwent a neurosurgical
procedure. Older age, male gender, African-American race and fall as a mechanism of injury
are significant predictors of a positive finding on a head CT scan or of neurosurgical
interventions in patients with minor head injury. This study highlights patients and injury
characteristics that may help in identifying patients with supposedly minor head injury who
will benefit from neuroimaging.

The rate of intracranial complications due to minor head injury is reported to be

approximately between 6-21%, and a neurosurgical intervention is required in only a
minority of patients (0.4-1%).4, 6, 8, 21 This study reports a markedly higher prevalence of
abnormal CT scans (29.2%) and neurosurgical procedures (4.2%). Even if diagnostic
neurosurgical procedures are disregarded, 2.5% of the patient population underwent a
therapeutic neurosurgical procedure. The higher prevalence of both outcomes in this study

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may be due to a larger patient population from a national trauma database, as compared to
earlier single institution studies. Nevertheless, this finding is particularly worrisome as it
suggests that a normal mental status examination on its own does not exclude significant
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head injury.

This study specifically evaluated patient and injury characteristics as predictors of a positive
head CT scan or a neurosurgical procedure. Older age was found to be a significant
predictor of a positive CT scan. This finding is supported by previous studies including Jeret
et. al, who prospectively studied patients with non-penetrating head trauma and a GCS score
of 15 and also found increasing age to be significantly associated with an abnormal CT
scan.9 Similarly, in another study of 1,429 patients, Haydel et. al suggested age greater than
60 years as one of the seven criteria that may be used to obtain a CT scan.4 Additionally, the
CHIP study proposed age greater than 60 years as one of the major criteria for obtaining a
head CT scan.

A significant gender disparity was also noted in the need for a NSP. This adds to the current
ongoing debate about the role of gender in trauma outcomes. Previous studies have shown
that women have significantly lower mortality rates than men of similar age after traumatic
injury.22 Data from the NTDB exploring the neuroprotective role of estrogen and
progesterone after traumatic brain injury concluded that female gender was associated with
improved outcomes after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury.23 Whereas no
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differences in head CT were noted, male patients were reported to be more likely to undergo
a NSP compared to female patients. The specific reasons for this gender difference cannot
be determined from this analysis, and future research is needed to evaluate this disparity.

We further explored whether this finding was specific to a certain ethnic group and found
that male Caucasian patients were more likely to undergo a NSP compared to female
Caucasian patients. Although we observed a similar association for African-American
patients, it was not statistically significant. This may have been due to the smaller number of
African-American patients in our model. Whitman et. al examined a similar relationship
among Caucasian and African-American patients and concluded that males were more likely
than females to sustain a head injury in each ethnic group.24 African-American patients in
this study were more likely to undergo a neurosurgical intervention. Interestingly, African-
American patients were also more likely to get a diagnostic neurosurgical procedure when
compared to Caucasians.

Patients with a history of fall were more likely to have a positive CT scan finding and a
neurosurgical intervention. Similarly, Smit et. al reported that history of fall from any
elevation is one of the 8 minor criteria for obtaining a head CT scan in patients with mild
head injury.11 In contrast, other studies have reported that patients with a history of assault
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or a pedestrian struck by a motor vehicle have a greater chance of a positive CT scan.9 This
finding raises the question: are we imaging patients involved in motor vehicle accidents with
greater frequency than required? On the other hand, are we missing intracranial injuries in
patients with a history of fall and normal mental status? This finding suggests the need to
consider falls as a mechanism associated with significant injury.

This study has several limitations because of its retrospective nature. Data were not
available on important clinical variables such as headache, vomiting and deficits in short-
term memory, and we could not adjust for these factors in our final model. It has been
suggested that there may be a reporting bias in the NTDB towards patients who have a more
severe hospital course and undergo surgery. Secondly, one of the inclusion criterions for the
NTDB is hospital admission. Thirdly, we used head AIS as part of our study criteria to
identify our patient sample from the NTDB. All these factors may have led to the inflated

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prevalence of our study outcomes but is unlikely to affect their possible predictors. Despite
these limitations, with a sample size of more than 80,000 patients, this is the largest reported
multi-center study to date to evaluate predictors of a positive CT scan or NSP in patients
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with mild head injury and a normal GCS.

In conclusion, a normal GCS in a patient with minor head injury does not preclude the need
for imaging or neurosurgical intervention. The threshold for imaging patients with minor
head injury may need to be lowered from age 65 years or greater to age 40 years or greater.
This study identified patient and injury specific characteristics that may help in identifying
patients with minor head injury who will benefit from a head CT scan. Future work that can
incorporate demographic and injury specific characteristics with clinical data in similarly
large datasets will pave the way for definitive clinical criteria that may be used to identify
such patients.

Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the American College of Surgeons-Committee on Trauma, Melanie Neal (NTDB
program manager) and the many others who have made the NTDB a reality. We would also like to thank Ms.
Valerie Kaye Scott BA, MSPH (Candidate) for her editorial assistance with preparing this manuscript.

Financial support for this work was provided by: National Institutes of Health/NIGMS K23GM093112-01 and
American College of Surgeons C. James Carrico Fellowship for the study of Trauma and Critical Care (Dr. Haider
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and Dr. Kisat)

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13. Smits M, Dippel DW, de Haan GG, et al. External validation of the Canadian CT Head Rule and
the New Orleans Criteria for CT scanning in patients with minor head injury. JAMA. 2005;
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14. Stiell IG, Clement CM, Rowe BH, et al. Comparison of the Canadian CT Head Rule and the New
Orleans Criteria in patients with minor head injury. JAMA. 2005; 294(12):1511–8. [PubMed:
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Trauma. 2007; 62(5):1259–62. discussion 1262-3. [PubMed: 17495733]
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17. Haider AH, Chang DC, Haut ER, et al. Mechanism of injury predicts patient mortality and
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Figure 1.
Patient Selection
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Table 1
Procedure codes
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Therapeutic Neurosurgical Procedure Diagnostic Neurosurgical Procedure

Diagnostic procedures on skull, brain, and cerebral meninges
Cranial puncture (01.00-01.09)
(01.10-01.19)
Craniotomy and craniectomy (01.20-01.28)
Incision of brain and cerebral meninges (01.30-01.39)
Operations on thalamus and globus pallidus (01.40-01.42)
Other excision or destruction of brain and meninges (01.50-01.59)
Excision of lesion of skull (01.60)
Cranioplasty (02.00-02.07)
Repair of cerebral meninges (02.10-02.14)
Ventriculostomy (02.20)
Extracranial ventricular shunt (02.30-02.39)
Revision, removal, and irrigation of ventricular shunt (02.40-02.43)
Other operations on skull, brain, and cerebral meninges (02.90-2.99)
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Table 2
Baseline demographics and Injury Severity Characteristics
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Number of patients (n) Percentage of Total

Sample
Age in years 16-25 22,322 26.7%

26-35 13,507 16.2%

36-45 13,430 16.1%

46-55 11,390 13.6%

56-65 7,034 8.4%

66-75 5,495 6.6%

76-84 5,688 6.8%

85 and above 2,461 2.9%

Gender Male 55,716 66.7%

Female 27,542 33.0%

Presented with Shock 1,364 1.6%

Race White 55,987 67.0%

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African-American 11,237 13.5%

Hispanic 7,791 9.3%

Others 4,167 5.0%

ISS 0-8 31,053 37.2%

9-15 23,467 28.1%

16-24 20,133 24.1%

25-75 8,404 10.1%

Maximum head AIS score 1 16,602 19.9%

2 37,272 44.6%

3 16,001 19.2%

4 11,832 14.2%

5 1,859 2.2%

Mechanism of injury Fall 17,738 21.2%

MVC 49,754 59.5%
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Others 15,752 18.9%

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Table 3
Univariate analysis: Predictors of positive CT scan in patients with blunt head injury and GCS of 15
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Patients with negative Patients with positive Total

head CT n=59,152 head CT n=24,414 n=83,566

n (%) n (%) n (%) p-value**

Age in years 16-25* 17,411 (78.0) 4,911 (22.0) 22,322 (100) <0.001

26-35 10,562 (78.2) 2,945 (21.8) 13,507 (100)

36-45 10,073 (75.0) 3,357 (25.0) 13,430 (100)

46-55 8,009 (70.3) 3,381 (29.7) 11,390 (100)

56-65 4,523 (64.3) 2,511 (35.7) 7,034 (100)

66-75 3,055 (55.6) 2,440 (44.4) 5,495 (100)

76-84 2,761 (48.5) 2,927 (51.5) 5,688 (100)

85 and above 1,167 (47.4) 1,294 (52.6) 2,461 (100)

Gender Male 39,484 (70.9) 16,232 (29.1) 55,716 (100) 0.975

Female 19,521 (70.9) 8,021 (29.1) 27,542 (100)

Hypotensive on arrival Yes 994 (72.9) 370 (27.1) 1,364 (100) 0.088
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No 57,831 (70.8) 23,901 (29.2) 81,732 (100)

Race White* 39,284 (70.2) 16,703 (29.8) 55,987 (100) <0.001

African-American 8,536 (76.0) 2,701 (24.0) 11,237 (100)

Hispanic 5,643 (72.4) 2,148 (27.6) 7,791 (100)

Others 2,682 (64.4) 1,485 (35.6) 4,167 (100)

Insured Yes 44,736 (69.9) 19,225 (30.1) 63,961 (100) <0.001

No 11,091 (75.4) 3,625 (24.6) 14,716 (100)

ISS 0-8 29,834 (96.1) 1,219 (3.9) 31,053 (100) < 0.001

9-15 16,271 (69.3) 7,196 (30.7) 23,467 (100)

16-24 9,189 (45.6) 10,944 (54.4) 20,133 (100)

25-75 3,452 (41.1) 4,952 (58.9) 8,404 (100)

Maximum head AIS score 1 16,024 (96.5) 578 (3.5) 16,602 (100) <0.001
2 35,719 (95.8) 1,553 (4.2) 37,272 (100)

3 6,142 (38.4) 9,859 (61.6) 16,001 (100)

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4 1,097 (9.3) 10,735 (90.7) 11,832 (100)

5 170 (9.1) 1,689 (90.9) 1,859 (100)

Mechanism of injury MVC* 39,415 (79.2) 10.339 (20.8) 49,754 (100) <0.001

Fall 9,223 (52.0) 8,515 (48.0) 17,738 (100)

Cyclist 10,286 (65.3) 5,466 (34.7) 15,752 (100)

*
Represents the reference groups for the multivariate logistic regression model
**
Statistical significance was defined as p value < .05

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Table 4
Univariate analysis: Predictors of NSP in patients with blunt head injury and GCS of 15
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Patients who did not Patients who underwent Total

undergo NSP n= 80,090 NSP n=3,476 n=83,566

n (%) N (%) n (%) p-value**

Age in years 16-25* 21,575 (96.7) 747 (3.4) 22,322 (100) <0.001

26-35 13,036 (96.5) 471 (3.5) 13,507 (100)

36-45 12,949 (96.4) 481 (3.6) 13,430 (100)

46-55 10,970 (96.3) 420 (3.7) 11,390 (100)

56-65 6,704 (95.3) 330 (4.7) 7,034 (100)

66-75 5,120 (93.2) 375 (6.8) 5,495 (100)

76-84 5,289 (93.0) 399 (7.0) 5688 (100)

85 and above 2,301 (93.5) 160 (6.5) 2,461 (100)

Gender Male 53,202 (95.5) 2,514 (4.5) 55,716 (100) <0.001

Female 26,605 (96.6) 937 (3.4)

Hypotensive on arrival Yes 1,305 (95.7) 59 (4.3) 1,364 (100) 0.741

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No 78,344 (95.9) 3,388 (4.2)

Race Caucasian* 53,639 (95.8) 2,348 (4.2) 55,987 (100) 0.013

African-American 10,712 (95.3) 525 (4.7) 11,237 (100)

Hispanic 7,501 (96.3) 290 (3.7) 7,791 (100)

Others 3,984 (95.6) 183 (4.4) 4,167 (100)

Insured Yes 61,241 (95.8) 2,720 (4.3) 63,961 (100) 0.161

No 14,128 (96.0) 588 (4.0) 14,716 (100)

ISS 0-8 30,913 (99.6) 140 (0.5) 31,053 (100) <0.001

9-15 22,814 (97.2) 653 (2.8) 23,467 (100)

16-24 18,702 (92.9) 1,431 (7.1) 20,133 (100)

25-75 7,165 (85.3) 1,239 (14.7) 8404 (100)

Maximum head AIS score 1 16,386 (98.7) 216 (1.3) 16,602 (100) <0.001
2 36,842 (98.9) 430 (1.2) 37,272 (100)

3 15,274 (95.5) 727 (4.5) 16,001 (100)

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4 10,517 (88.9) 1,315 (11.1) 11,832 (100)

5 1,071 (57.6) 788 (42.4) 1,859 (100)

Mechanism of injury MVC* 48,322 (97.1) 1,432 (2.9) 49,754 (100) <0.001

Fall 16,496 (93.0) 1,242 (7.0) 17,738 (100)

Others 14,967 (95.0) 785 (5.0) 15,752 (100)

*
Represents the reference groups for the multivariate logistic regression model
**
Statistical significance was defined as p value < .05

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Table 5
Adjusted Odds ratios for Predictors of Head CT scan or Neurosurgical Intervention in Patients with Minor
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Head Injury (n=70,647 patients)*

Positive CT scan Neurosurgical Intervention

Logistic Regression OR (95% CI)

Age

16-25 1 1

26-35 0.98 (0.89-1.07) 1.08 (0.90-1.30)

36-45 1.11 (1.00-1.23) 0.91 (0.80-1.02)

46-55 1.17 (1.05-1.31) 0.79 (0.70-0.89)

56-65 1.31 (1.16-1.48) 0.83 (0.72-0.96)

66-75 1.73 (1.51-1.98) 1.08 (0.95-1.22)

76-84 1.81 (1.50-2.18) 0.81 (0.69-0.95)

85 and above 1.46 (1.20-1.78) 0.71 (0.55-0.91)

Male gender 0.97 (0.92-1.03) 1.27 (1.14-1.42)

Hypotensive on arrival 0.92 (0.76-1.12) 1.04 (0.78-1.38)

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Race

Caucasian 1 1

African-American 0.96 (0.80-1.16) 1.21 (1.09-1.35)

Hispanic 1.11 (1.00-1.23) 1.02 (0.85-1.24)

Others 1.33 (1.03-1.73) 1.17 (0.95-1.46)

Covered by insurance 1.02 (0.91-1.13) 0.91 (0.77-1.07)

Mechanism of injury

MVC 1 1

Fall 1.57 (1.43-1.72) 1.46 (1.27-1.68)

Others 1.37 (1.24-1.50) 1.31 (1.15-1.50)

Positive head CT - 1.28 (1.04-1.57)

*
Model was adjusted for overall injury severity (using Injury Severity Score), severity of head injury (using Abbreviated Injury Score for Head
region), year of presentation and region of the trauma center.
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J Surg Res. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2013 June 17.