Introduction to Modeling and Simulation

A model is an abstraction from reality used to help understand the object or system being
modeled. People use modeling all the time to make decisions in their everyday lives
although they usually don’t do so in a formal way. Here are some common things are
models:

• Maps are models of a portion of the earth’s surface. They are made from materials
that do not match that surface (traditionally made of paper rather than earth and
rock), they have a different form that abstracts many objects shown on the map and
leaves other out altogether. For example, a street map leaves out information on the
topography, representing the earth as a flat plane. It shows only the streets and their
names, direction relative to the north pole, and perhaps a scale and a title. They are
generally drawn to scale so that one can calculate the approximate distance on the
real earth that is represented by the proportional distance on the map. Computer
maps are a special type of map that is “virtual” and goes away when the computer is
turned off.
• Most computer games are models of real or imaginary worlds programmed in a
computer. The game programmers decide how objects in that virtual world behave
– do they follow the ordinary rules of physics or are some of those suspended –
allowing them the characters to jump extraordinary distances or fly. They also
choose which objects to animate and which are left as static backgrounds even
though the real objects in a real world are subject to changes over periods of
minutes, hours, or days.
• Many toys are models of real objects, scaled down or changed in their operation so
that they are not dangerous or messy like toy trucks, guns, swords, dolls, dishes,
stoves.

People naturally use their experiences to create mental models of things they encounter in
ways to help themselves learn and survive. Most of us know that brown water is probably
not healthy to drink. We know that a car in the snow can possible skid and therefore we
should drive slower and leave more space and time to stop. In Columbus, Ohio, the
prediction of snow seems to create a model in many people’s mind that has them slow down
even if it doesn’t snow.

Types of Models

Models can be characterized and classified in a number of ways, but a complete review of
those definitions is not really important to our work in this course. However, let's define a
few broad categories of models to help us understand how they work. These categories are
not necessarily mutually exclusive since a lot of models involve elements from several types.

Physical Models

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 Physical models are
scale representations of
the same physical
entities they represent.
They are used primarily
in engineering of large-
scale projects to
examine a limited set of
behavioral
characteristics in the
system. The illustration
and site below are a
good example of a
physical model -- one
of a stream and dam
used to simulate the
rate of outflow from
the dam under a variety
of circumstances. In the electronic version of this document there is link that explains more
about this physical model (http://mhl.nsw.gov.au/www/warragvt.htmlx).

Model of river and dam

Mathematical Models

Models that are run on a computer require the translation of a mental model into a set of
rules and structures that can be represented in mathematical terms using a programming or
modeling language. Mathematical models use mathematical equations to represent the key
relationships among system components. The equations can be derived in a number of
ways. Many of them come from extensive scientific studies that have formulated a
mathematical relationship and then tested it against real data, just like our "driving to work"
example. Some come from laboratory testing of relationships where that is feasible.
Sometimes real data are used to derive relationships using statistical techniques to fit a
particular relationship to the data and to measure the level of error associated with that
representation.

Mathematical models of large-scale systems often use a combination of approaches --

inserting tested equations where the relationships are well known and inserting statistical
relationships where there is less certainty. Such models can also use probabilistic
relationships for events that are random or exhibit some type of variable pattern. For
example, models of weather analyze the long-term weather records for the area under
consideration and calculate the frequency of different weather incidents. These are
represented as their probability of occurrence, assuming that the past is a strong indication
of future events. In Ohio, for example, there is a high probability of many small rainstorms
because they occur frequently. There is a much lower probability of extreme events that
produce a large amount of rainfall in a short time -- high winds, high snowfalls, etc. These
can be incorporated into mathematical models by applying probability distributions in the
model and using a random number generator to choose events based on that distribution.
Similar rate based distributions are used in population dynamics models relating to birth and
death rates, in the modeling of disease (epidemiology) based on risk factors, for earthquake
risks, and for many kinds of accident modeling.

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Simulation Models

Simulation models are a special subset of mathematical or physical models that allow the
user to ask "what if" questions about the system. Changes are made in the physical
conditions or their mathematical representation and the model is run many times to
"simulate" the impacts of the changes in the conditions. The model results are then
compared to gain insight into the behavior of the system.

Modeling Terminology 1

As we work with various kinds of models, we will encounter a whole new vocabulary of
words that may have special meaning when applied to models. Here are a few of those
terms.

Accuracy – The closeness of a measured or modeled/computed value to its “true” value.

The “true” value is the value it would have if we had perfect information. We will talk later
about various ways to measure accuracy.

Algorithm – A set of rules for solving some problem. On a computer, an algorithm is a set
of rules in computer code that solve a problem.

Calibration - The process of adjusting model parameters within physically defensible ranges
until the resulting predictions give the best possible fit to the observed data.

Conceptual Model - A hypothesis regarding the important factors that govern the behavior
of an object or process of interest. This can be an interpretation or working description of
the characteristics and dynamics of a physical system.

Deterministic Model - A model that provides a single solution for the variables being
modeled. Because this type of model does not explicitly simulate the effects of data
uncertainty or variability, changes in model outputs are solely due to changes in model
components.

Empirical Model - An empirical model is one where the structure is determined by the
observed statistical relationship among experimental data. These models can be used to
develop relationships that are useful for forecasting and describing trends in behavior but
they are not necessarily mechanistically relevant that is they don’t explain the real causes and
mechanisms for the relationships.

Parameters - Terms in the model that are fixed during a model run or simulation but can be
changed in different runs as a method for conducting sensitivity analysis or to achieve
calibration goals.

Sensitivity - The degree to which the model outputs are affected by changes in a selected
input parameters.

Statistical Models - Models obtained by fitting observational data to a mathematical

function.

1Some of these definitions were taken from Glossary of Frequently Used Modeling Terms.
http://www.epa.gov/crem/library/glossary.pdf.

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Stochastic Model - A model that includes variability in model parameters. This variability is
a function of: 1) changing environmental conditions, 2) spatial and temporal aggregation
within the model framework, 3) random variability. The solutions obtained by the model or
output is therefore a function of model components and random variability.

Variable - A measured or estimated quantity which describes an object or can be observed

in a system and which is subject to change.

Validation – Answers the questions “Is the science valid and does the model use current
methods and techniques? Is the numerical model adequate to convey the science principles
at the level of the question being asked? Is the model arriving at an acceptably accurate
representation of the phenomenon being modeled?"

Verification – Does the code for the model run correctly and provide a mathematically
correct answer? Do the algorithms being used accurately represent the mathematical
function on the computer?

First Modeling Example

We will start with an example that everyone can understand – trying to model the time it
takes to go through traffic from your house to a destination like work. Let's say you need to
decide the best route to take to work. To make this decision you will need to formulate at
least one objective for your trip. Here are some of the possible objectives.
• Minimize the amount of time it takes to get there
• Avoid traffic congestion (You hate traffic!)
• Find a route that excludes freeways (You have an old clunker of a car)
• Plot a path between your house and work to make sure you travel by the same spot
every day (You could think of this as any stop along the way - for coffee, breakfast, to follow
construction development on a friend's new house, etc.)

Assuming that we focus just on the first objective on the above list, we need to decide what
will affect that objective. To do that, we must create a conceptual model of the system.
Our conceptual model should list all of the variables that impact our travel time from home
to work and what we believe are the cause and effect relationships across all of those
variables. For any model we are creating or studying, our ideas on the variables and cause
and effect relationships come from published information, analysis of data from a real
system, and our own knowledge of the system. The phenomena we are modeling may also
be constrained by physical laws or prevailing theories of their operation so our conceptual
model should reflect those limitations.

For our traffic example, we know that we need to traverse the street system to get from one
place to another and that we need to observe traffic laws governing speed, one-way streets,
and traffic control devices. Even so, we have a finite but potentially large number of routes
we can take and a large number of conditions that could impact how long the trip takes.

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 The first part of
the class exercise
is to define as
many of the
conditions as
possible that will
impact the travel
time to work
along with the
cause and effect
relationships
among the
variables. For
each cause and
effect
relationship, we
need to estimate
the direction of
the relationship, the form of the relationship, and, if possible, a quantitative representation
of that relationship. For example, we know that bad weather will slow traffic down. The
worse the weather, the slower the traffic. We can hypothesize that the impact on traffic is
non-linear, that is as the weather gets worse and worse, the traffic slows more and more. We
may not have the data to exactly quantify the relationship but we could start with a simple
classification of weather events and an estimate of their impacts on the flow of traffic. Here
are some examples of weather conditions - can we fill in an estimate of the impacts on traffic
flow?

Weather Condition Impact on Traffic Flow

Clear skies, no wind
Light rain
Heavy rain
Light snow
Heavy snow
Heavy snow and blowing, poor visibility
Freezing rain
Other?

Once we have defined all of the potential conditions, we must decide how to simplify our
model to reduce the amount of effort required to arrive at a reasonable estimate of the
differences in time without requiring the gathering a huge amount of data. We will often
have to trade-off or compromise the accuracy of a model with the resources required to
operationalize the model. In this case, we will choose to compare the traffic flow across
only a few selected routes under good weather conditions.

As we simplify the model, we need to decide which phenomena will be represented as

variables (items whose values will change based on the relationships represented in the
model) and which will be represented as parameters (items that are assigned a reasonable
constant value to represent a finite set of conditions). For example, every stop sign you stop
at may take a different amount of time depending upon how many other cars are
approaching the same intersection. However, you may choose to create a parameter that

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uses an average amount of stopping time to represent the range of conditions rather than
have to gather data or find some other way of estimating the number of cars approaching
each intersection during your trip. As we develop the models we use in the class, we will
discuss the ways in which we can verify whether the computer is giving us the correct result
and validate whether the answer is an accurate representation of the system.

The process we generally go through on a modeling project is represented by Figure 2.

Figure 2: The Modeling and Inquiry Process

Choose Components
Define Objectives for Create Conceptual to Model that Best
the Modeling Model of the System Match Objectives

Use the Model to Adjust Model

Make Decisions to Get Closer
to Reality

Compare
Model-Based
Decision to
Real-World

Draw Conclusions

With our conceptual model in mind, we will use a simple version of the model in a
spreadsheet representation of a simple model of a trip to work. Copy the file called
traffic1.m from the shared drive in the lab. Open MATLAB on your computer. After the
program opens, use the File Open command to get to the traffic1 file and open it. At the
top of the MATLAB editor window that will open, you will see the definition of the major
variables that are used to estimate total travel time. For each leg of the trip on a local street,
the travel time is the distance divided by the average travel speed. Time is increased if you
get to a stop sign and here is represented as a constant parameter of 30 seconds. The time
to traverse a section of highway or a major street is the same as for a local street except that
the average speed will be higher. If you get to a traffic light, the time will actually vary
depending on the probability that you will hit a red light and the average amount of cycle
time for the light to turn green. Finally, our model adds time if we need to make a left turn

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at a major intersection as this will delay us further. Assuming there is a green turn arrow, we
need to know its cycle time and the number of cars that can make the turn per cycle time.

The middle of the program shows three route options based on given/assumed data. The
model considers two routes - a freeway route and a local road route as illustrated in Figure 3.
The freeway route is considered for two conditions - with and without congestion. The path
associated with each option is described in the program for each of these three cases. For
the freeway route one takes the local streets to get to the freeway and then travels 2.5 miles
to the freeway exit. From there, one has to negotiate a left turn and travel several blocks to
the

destination. For the local street option you use a major road and travel 1.75 miles and face
the possibility to be stopped at 5 traffic lights. The difference between congested and
normal freeway is the difference in speed (55 mph uncongested freeway, 20 mph congested
freeway). If you consider the possible objectives you might have in planning this trip, this

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model actually deals with the first three objectives and presents data on the time each option
will take.

Take a few minutes to look over the formulas in the MATLAB program and verify how each
equation is used to calculate the total time for that segment. You in fact must verify that the
mathematics of the equations correctly calculate the travel time given the assumptions that
are made about the relationships. If you are confused about any of the calculations, ask the
instructors. Compare what is simulated in the model to your conceptual model of travel
time. Which of the variables you thought might be important are left out of this model?
Under what circumstances would the model probably fail to accurately forecast travel time?

To run the program, click on Debug and then run traffic1 in the editor window. The three
answers to the times should appear in the MATLAB command window. Since you don’t
know how to program in MATLAB, we will have you copy and paste these values into a
spreadsheet for further analysis as demonstrated in class.

Once you are sure you understand the model components, take some time to use the model
to simulate alternatives. Simulation uses alternative sets of conditions to make a series of
forecasts, giving the analyst insights into model behavior and helping to make a rational
decision about what to do. For this example, use MATLAB to simulate the differences in
travel time if the probability of hitting a red light changes. Change the appropriate
parameter value starting from .5 to .3 in .05 increments. The program will recalculate the
travel times. Copy the resulting times into a spreadsheet along with the parameter value they
correspond to, forming a table of these values associated with each run. Testing these types
of variations are called sensitivity testing for the model. The question is how sensitive is
the model output (the time to get to work) to variations in the constants that are used as
inputs. One way to measure sensitivity is to quantify the percent change in output per unit
change in an input parameter. So in the case above, you should answer the question: for
each 5% change in the probability of stopping at a traffic light (between 30 and 50%) how
much is the average time to work increased or decreased? Is the model sensitive to this
variable? To assist in your analysis, you should use the Excel graphing functions to visualize
the relationship between the traffic light probability and the trip time by creating an X-Y
scatterplot of the results.

Test the sensitivity of a second parameter – the average traffic speed by assuming that there
is an accident on the Freeway which slows the average speed to 15 mph and diverts more
traffic to the alternative route, reducing its average speed to 20 mph. Which route should
you take?

Assignment 2 Recap

Here is what you should prepare to hand in for this assignment:

1. A final spreadsheet showing the simulation data and the sensitivity of the model to
the parameter changes.
2. A short report describing what you found:
a. Can you verify that the model we gave you is correct?
b. What things did we leave out of the model that could cause major changes
in reality to the time it takes to get to work?
c. How sensitive is the model to changes in the parameters you tested?
Describe this in quantitative terms, referring to your spreadsheet.

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d. Which route should you take to work under the range of conditions you
tested?
e. If this we a real place in Columbus, describe how you would collect data for
three variables or parameters to validate the model.

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