POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 12th MAY 2018, 6 AM EST

Ontario Election
Voter Intentions
12th May 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted on May 11th, 2018 three levels of government, President and CEO
among a sample of 2534 adults, 18 years of Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
age or older, living in Ontario. The survey international public affairs.
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
interviews on landlines and cellular phones. Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
The sampling frame was derived from both a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
a national telephone directory compiled by was the only polling firm to correctly predict a
Mainstreet Research from various sources and Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
random digit dialing. The part of the survey election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
that dialed from the directory was conducted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections.
as a stratified dial of the following regions; and the Alabama special election in 2017.
Toronto (also known as the 416 region), Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
the Greater Toronto Area (also known as Association for Public Opinion Research and
the 905 region), South Central Ontario, meets international and Canadian publication
Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and standards.
Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional CONTACT INFORMATION
question of what region of the province they In Ottawa:
resided in. Quito Maggi, President
[email protected]
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third In Toronto:
party. Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
[email protected]
The margin of error for this survey is +/- 1.95%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this twitter.com/MainStResearch
report) facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
NDP SURGE TO SECOND AS PCs SLIP IN SECOND STRAIGHT MAINSTREET POLL

12 MAY 2018 (TORONTO, ON) – The Ontario NDP are now in second place behind the Progressive
Conservatives as the governing Liberals slip to third.

Those are the findings from the latest Mainstreet Research poll - the first of the Ontario election. The
poll surveyed 2534 Ontarians on May 11th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.95 % and is accurate
19 times out of 20.

“We’ve been noting a very significant surge in NDP support among leaning voters and second
choices for the past few weeks,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.
“Today as we begin our province-wide polling for the election period, we see a very significant shift
in voter intentions from our final pre-election poll of April 30th.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs still lead with 42.3% (-2.6% from our previous poll), with
the NDP led by Andrea Horwath currently at 28.4% (+7.1%). The Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne
slide to 22.1% (-6.1%), while the Greens with Mike Schreiner are at 5.4% (+1.4%).

“While the topline numbers are downright frightening for the incumbent Liberals, the regional
numbers reveal even worse news for Premier Wynne”, continued Maggi. “While the PCs had a bad
week and dipped in support, they maintain a very substantial lead.”

The regional numbers reveal the following:

• In the 905 region, where the NDP has traditionally struggled, the Liberals have now dropped to
third place. This points to a potential sweep for the PCs of the 905 region.
• In Eastern Ontario, the NDP are ahead of the Liberals by nearly six points. This could lead to
progressive vote splitting in the Ottawa region where PC gains are sure to occur.
• The Liberals are under 20% in South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, and the North.
• The NDP have gained in the 416 region while the PCs still lead.

“These regional numbers are pointing to a very challenging path for Kathleen Wynne,” added Maggi.
“But things could get worse for the Liberals in the days ahead if progressive voters decide to vote
NDP to stop Doug Ford from becoming Premier.”

The PCs and the NDP are tied among leaning voters with the Liberals back significantly, and the
NDP may be poised for further growth as second choices of those voters who might change their
minds continue to favour Andrea Horwath.

“A lot can change in the campaign because things have changed in the last few months,” concluded
Maggi. “But if the election were held today, we would see a PC majority, an NDP opposition, and the
Liberals struggling to get their seat count to double digits.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - [email protected]
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters
party would you vote for?

17.2% 18.1%

1.5%

4.2%

All Voters

22.9%
36.1%

Decided and Leaning Voters

1.8%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens
5.4%
Another Party Undecided 22.1%

28.4%

Decided and Leaning Voters

42.3%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(regional breakouts)

30.3%
36.1%
Toronto

27.2%
4.9%
1.5%

23.1%
44.9%
GTA

25%
5.4%
1.5%

22.7%
41.4%
East

28.9%
5.6%
1.4%

18.6%
South Central

42.1%
31.2%
5.5%
2.7%

14.8%
Southwestern

45.8%
31.5%
6%
2%

14.6%
45.1%
North

32.5%
4%
3.7%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Liberals PCs NDP Green Another Party

 Which party, if any, would be your second
choice?
Liberals PCs

7.6%
13.3%

29.6%

31.5%

Liberals
NDPLiberals 51.6% PCs

0.6%

4.3%

8.5%

NDP 19.6% 52.3%

Greens 5.6%
25.2% 3.7%

34.8%
13.5%
PCs NDP
19.3% Greens Another Party No Second Choice Liberals NDP Greens Another Party No Second Choice
1.3%

34.5% 8.4%

1.4% 1.2% NDP

40.5%
Liberals

NDP7.8% Greens
21.6%

18.1%

57.3%

4.4%

22.7% 39.4%

20.7%

Liberals PCs
PCs NDP
Greens Greens AnotherNo
Another Party Party No Second Choice
SecondNDP
Choice
Liberals PCs Greens Another Party No Second Choice Liberals PCs Another Party No Second Choice
 How likely are you to change your vote from
your first choice to your second choice?
berals PCs

8.7% 9.6% 7.4%

11.9%

12.4%

20.4%

33.2%
Greens
Liberals PCs

19.5%

51.1%
15.6% 15.5%
DP Greens
25.8%

9.2% 5.6%
13.5% 11.8%
Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely

Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure

21.5%

Greens
25.4% 19.1%
31.7%
28%
NDP Greens

40%

15.6% 15.6%
31.9%

Very Likely Very

Somewhat Likely Likely
Somewhat Somewhat
Unlikely Likely Somewhat
Very Likely Unlikely
Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely

Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure
Breakouts
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 18.1% 16.7% 19.4% 16.9% 17.0% 16.8% 23.1% 25% 19.1% 17.5% 15% 12.4% 12.2%
Progressive Conservatives led by
36.1% 43.3% 29.1% 28.5% 39.3% 40.4% 36.9% 30.2% 39.4% 35.8% 34.6% 38.6% 37.8%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 22.9% 20.2% 25.6% 27.8% 22.7% 21.3% 18.6% 21.8% 20.1% 24.6% 26.6% 24.2% 26.4%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 5.4% 2.9% 4.1% 4.3% 3.2% 4.2% 5.1% 4.1% 4.9% 3.7%
Another Party 1.5% 1.3% 1.7% 3.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 2.2% 1.5% 3.4%
Undecided 17.2% 14.1% 20.1% 18.3% 17.5% 16.5% 16% 18.4% 16% 15.7% 17.5% 18.4% 16.5%
Unweighted Frequency 2534 1247 1287 448 509 786 791 436 674 253 443 511 217
Weighted Frequency 2534 1246 1288 712 638 696 489 589 697 339 226 529 155

(leaning and undecided voters)

18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 20.1% 18.6% 21.5% 19.2% 19.1% 17.9% 25.5% 27.4% 21.3% 20.6% 16.7% 13.4% 13.2%
Progressive Conservatives led by
38.7% 45.8% 31.9% 31.1% 41.8% 43.7% 38.7% 32.7% 41.6% 37.6% 37.7% 41.9% 41.3%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 25.8% 21.9% 29.5% 29.5% 26.7% 24.3% 21.2% 24.6% 23% 26% 27.9% 28.6% 29.5%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 4.9% 4.7% 5% 6.4% 3.3% 4.7% 4.9% 4.4% 5% 5.1% 4.9% 5.4% 3.7%
Another Party 1.7% 1.5% 1.8% 3.4% 1% 1% 1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 2.4% 1.8% 3.4%
Undecided 8.9% 7.6% 10.2% 10.4% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 9.5% 7.8% 9.4% 10.4% 8.9% 8.9%
Unweighted Frequency 2534 1247 1287 448 509 786 791 436 674 253 443 511 217
Weighted Frequency 2534 1246 1288 712 638 696 489 589 697 339 226 529 155

(decided and leaning voters)

18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 22.1% 20.1% 23.9% 21.5% 20.8% 19.6% 28% 30.3% 23.1% 22.7% 18.6% 14.8% 14.6%
Progressive Conservatives led by
42.3% 49.5% 35.4% 34.6% 45.3% 47.6% 42.3% 36.1% 44.9% 41.4% 42.1% 45.8% 45.1%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 28.4% 23.7% 33% 33.1% 29.1% 26.6% 23.3% 27.2% 25% 28.9% 31.2% 31.5% 32.5%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 5.4% 5.1% 5.6% 7.2% 3.6% 5.1% 5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 5.6% 5.5% 6% 4%
Another Party 1.8% 1.6% 2.1% 3.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 2.7% 2% 3.7%
Unweighted Frequency 2311 1160 1151 402 465 720 724 397 618 228 398 469 201
Weighted Frequency 2311 1136 1175 649 582 634 446 537 635 309 206 482 141

Which party, if any, would be your second choice?

18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen
19.1% 17.6% 20.6% 22.8% 20.6% 16.7% 15.4% 29.5% 16.9% 19.3% 19.2% 11.7% 14.6%
Wynne
PCs led by Doug Ford 17% 18.4% 15.5% 17.5% 16.5% 16% 18.2% 15.8% 19.8% 14% 13.4% 17.4% 19.2%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 28.8% 27.5% 30.1% 25.0% 29.9% 29.8% 31.5% 29.2% 29.1% 32.3% 25.3% 26.3% 32.1%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 9.3% 9.4% 9.2% 10.9% 9.3% 9% 7.3% 4.9% 8.5% 12.1% 11.5% 12% 10.3%
Another Party 3.1% 4.2% 2% 4.8% 2.9% 2.7% 1.3% 1.7% 3% 3.2% 5% 4.2% 1.8%
No Second Choice 22.8% 22.9% 22.7% 19.0% 20.9% 25.9% 26.2% 18.9% 22.8% 19.1% 25.7% 28.4% 22%
Unweighted Frequency 2311 1160 1151 402 465 720 724 397 618 228 398 469 201
Weighted Frequency 2311 1136 1175 649 582 634 446 537 635 309 206 482 141
 Which party, if any, would be your second choice? (continued)
All Liberals PCs NDP Greens
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 19.1% - 7.6% 40.5% 13.5%
PCs led by Doug Ford 17% 13.3% - 20.7% 8.4%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 28.8% 52.3% 31.5% - 39.4%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 9.3% 4.3% 5.6% 18.1% -
Another Party 3.1% 0.6% 3.7% 1.4% 4.4%
No Second Choice 22.8% 29.6% 51.6% 19.3% 34.5%
Unweighted Frequency 2311 501 1015 635 122
Weighted Frequency 2311 510 978 656 124

How likely are you to change your vote from your first choice to your second choice?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto GTA East South Central Southwestern North
Very Likely 8.3% 9.3% 7.4% 9.7% 6.8% 7.1% 9.8% 9.6% 11.1% 7.5% 5.9% 5.4% 5.7%
Somewhat Likely 19% 17.4% 20.6% 21.1% 21.6% 16.9% 15.7% 24.3% 16.7% 16.7% 20.4% 16.9% 19.2%
Somewhat Unlikely 24.6% 22.9% 26.3% 25.6% 22.4% 25.8% 24.5% 23.7% 26.8% 26.6% 21.6% 21.6% 28.9%
Very Unlikely 38.3% 40.9% 35.9% 34.4% 39.7% 40.4% 39.3% 30.8% 35.2% 40.9% 45.4% 45.3% 41.4%
Not Sure 9.7% 9.6% 9.8% 9.2% 9.4% 9.9% 10.6% 11.6% 10.1% 8.3% 6.6% 10.8% 4.8%
Unweighted Frequency 1747 876 871 322 367 528 530 319 468 180 292 334 154
Weighted Frequency 1747 859 888 491 440 480 337 406 480 233 156 365 107

All Liberals PCs NDP Greens

Very Likely 8.3% 11.9% 7.4% 5.6% 11.8%
Somewhat Likely 19% 20.4% 12.4% 21.5% 40%
Somewhat Unlikely 24.6% 25.8% 19.5% 31.9% 15.6%
Very Unlikely 38.3% 33.2% 51.1% 31.7% 19.1%
Not Sure 9.7% 8.7% 9.6% 9.2% 13.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1747 439 651 534 94
Weighted Frequency 1747 432 633 554 96
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(first four responses randomized)
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea Horwath
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another Party
Undecided

Which party are you leaning towards?

(only asked to respondents who said they were undecided in the previous question)
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea Horwath
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another Party
Undecided

Which party, if any, would be your second choice?

(only asked to respondents who indicated a party preference in the first question)
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea Horwath
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another Party
No Second Choice

How likely are you to change your vote from your first choice to your second choice?
(only asked to respondents who indicated a second choice in the previous question)
Very Likely
Somewhat Likely
Somewhat Unlikely
Very Unlikely
Not Sure

What is your gender?

Male
Female

What is your age group?

Under 18 years of age
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our
breakouts.
Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville
Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and
Greater Toronto Area Rideau Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Waterloo
Niagara Falls Wellington--Halton Hills
Niagara West Windsor West
Simcoe--Grey Windsor--Tecumseh
St. Catharines
Northern Ontario
Southwestern Ontario Algoma--Manitoulin
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Huron--Bruce
Cambridge Kenora--Rainy River
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kiiwetinoong
Elgin--Middlesex--London Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Essex Nickel Belt
Guelph Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on May 11th, 2018, among
a sample of 2534 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario. The survey was conducted
using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews on both landlines and
cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Ontario.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following regions: Toronto (also
known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), South
Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the case
of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the
province they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.95% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 2.77%, Females: +/- 2.73%,
18-34 age group: +/- 4.63%, 35-49 age group: +/- 4.34%, 50-64 age group: +/- 3.5%, 65+
age group: +/- 3.48%, Toronto: +/- 4.69%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 3.77%, South Central
Ontario: +/- 4.66%, Southwestern Ontario: +/- 4.33%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 6.16%, Northern
Ontario: +/- 6.65%

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls.