POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 26TH APRIL 2018, 6 AM PST

British Columbia
Voter Intention Numbers
26th April 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on a survey With 20 years of political experience in all
conducted between April 16th to 18th, 2018 three levels of government, President and CEO
among a sample of 900 adults, 18 years of age Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
or older, living in British Columbia. The survey international public affairs.
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
interviews on both landlines and cellular Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict
Research and was not sponsored by a third a Liberal majority government in the 2015
party. federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
The sampling frame was derived from both elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
a national telephone directory compiled by special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
Mainstreet Research from various sources and a member of the World Association for Public
random digit dialing. The part of the survey Opinion Research and meets international and
that dialed from the directory was conducted Canadian publication standards.
as a stratified dial of three regions in British
Columbia; Greater Vancouver, Vancouver CONTACT INFORMATION
Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the In Ottawa:
case of random digit dials, respondents were Quito Maggi, President
asked the additional question of what region [email protected]
of the country they resided in.
In Toronto:
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
3.27% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. [email protected]

(full methodology appears at the end of this Find us online at:

report) www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
BC LIBERALS TAKE LEAD FROM NDP; HORGAN GOVERNMENT HURT BY KINDER MORGAN
OPPOSITION

26 APRIL 2018 (VANCOUVER, BC) – Premier John Horgan’s opposition to the Kinder Morgan pipeline
construction has cost him support and the BC Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson now find themselves
in the lead.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 900 British Columbians between April 16th and April 18th. The poll has a
margin of error of +/- 3.27% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“More British Columbians support the pipeline construction, and with those opposed roughly splitting
their vote between the NDP and the Greens, the Liberals have now taken a lead”, said Quito Maggi,
President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

Among decided and leaning voters, the BC Liberals enjoy 36.8% support while the NDP are at 34.8%.
The Greens under Andrew Weaver are 15.7% while the BC Conservatives are at 11.4%.

“The NDP lead among female voters, those under the age of 49, and in Vancouver Island”, continued
Maggi. “While the NDP are certainly benefitting from the collapse of the Green vote, they are being
hurt by supporters of the pipeline moving to the Liberals.”

A total of 54.8% of respondents say that they support the pipeline construction, with 38.7% say
that they oppose it. Support is strongest among men, respondents over the age of 65, and the BC
interior. Opposition conversely is highest among women, those aged between 18-34, and residents
in Vancouver Island.

“We also found that 48.2% of British Columbians are now less likely to vote for the NDP because of
the Horgan’s opposition to the pipeline,” added Maggi. “His stance has especially cost him votes in
Greater Vancouver and in the interior.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - [email protected]
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters vote for?

8.2%
1.3%

10.2%
31.5%

All Voters
14.6%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
34.2%
8.2%
1.3% 1.4%
11.4%
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
10.2%
31.5%
Another Party Undecided
34.8%

15.7%

All Voters
14.6% Decided and Leaning Voters

34.2%
36.8%

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
Another Party Undecided
Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

34.8%
36.8%
15.7%
All

11.4%
1.4%

35.6%
Greater Vancouver

37.5%
13.7%
11.3%
2%

43.1%
Vancouver Island

32.7%
16.8%
7%
0.3%

28.4%
38%
Rest of BC

18.8%
14%
0.8%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives

Another Party
 Supporters say that the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion are a safer mode of
transportation of oil and building them provide an economic benefit for the national
interest. Opponents of pipeline construction say that they are an environmental risk
which outweigh any short-term benefits. Do you support the construction of the Trans
Mountain pipeline?
(geographic breakouts)

All 39.2% 15.6% 8.7% 30%

Male 48.9% 17.9% 7.6% 21.4%

Female 29.8% 13.3% 9.8% 38.4% 8.7%

18-34 36.2% 12.2% 9.1% 35.4% 7%

35-49 35.5% 22% 7.7% 28.2%

50-64 41.5% 15.1% 9.6% 26.5%

65+ 44.3% 13.1% 8% 29.6% 5%

Greater Vancouver 37% 17.9% 8.8% 29.1%

Vancouver Island 33.7% 9.1% 9.4% 38.2% 9.6%

Rest of BC 44.7% 15.5% 8.2% 27.3%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose Not sure

As you might know, Premier John Horgan and the Provincial NDP
government is opposed to the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion.
Does this make you more or less likely to vote NDP?
(geographic breakouts)

All 37.1% 48.2% 14.7%

Male 26.5% 57.9% 15.6%

Female 47.4% 38.8% 13.8%

18-34 38.1% 48% 13.8%

35-49 39% 41.7% 19.2%

50-64 35.4% 52.4% 12.2%

65+ 35.9% 50.4% 13.8%

Greater Vancouver 37.3% 47.6% 15.1%

Vancouver Island 48.5% 39.6% 11.9%

Rest of BC 31.5% 53.1% 15.4%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

More Likely Less Likely Not Sure

Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
BC NDP led by John Horgan 31.5% 24.8% 37.9% 31.6% 31.7% 30.5% 32.4% 32% 40.6% 26.6%
BC Liberal led by Andrew Wilkinson 34.2% 41.5% 27.1% 28.8% 32.1% 37.9% 38.7% 33.9% 30.3% 36.4%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 14.6% 13.8% 15.4% 16.0% 16.8% 13.1% 12.4% 12.8% 16.3% 16.4%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 10.2% 12.1% 8.2% 13.8% 9.1% 9.2% 8% 9.4% 6% 13.1%
Another Party 1.3% 1.6% 0.9% - 2.4% 1.9% 0.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.8%
Undecided 8.2% 6% 10.4% 9.7% 8% 7.5% 7.7% 10% 6.5% 6.7%
Unweighted Frequency 900 511 389 81 194 305 320 420 179 301
Weighted Frequency 900 443 457 242 219 248 190 430 149 321

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
BC NDP led by John Horgan 32.6% 25.8% 39.2% 33.2% 32.5% 32.1% 32.6% 33.6% 41.2% 27.4%
BC Liberal led by Andrew Wilkinson 35.4% 42.3% 28.7% 29.9% 32.7% 39% 40.7% 35.6% 31.3% 36.9%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 15.3% 14.4% 16.1% 17.1% 17.5% 13.5% 12.7% 12.9% 16.3% 17.9%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 11% 12.8% 9.3% 13.8% 10.1% 10.1% 9.7% 10.7% 6.8% 13.4%
Another Party 1.3% 1.6% 0.9% - 2.4% 1.9% 0.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.8%
Undecided 4.4% 3.1% 5.8% 5.9% 4.7% 3.5% 3.4% 5.2% 4.1% 3.5%
Unweighted Frequency 900 511 389 81 194 305 320 420 179 301
Weighted Frequency 900 443 457 242 219 248 190 430 149 321

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
BC NDP led by John Horgan 34.8% 26.9% 42.4% 36.5% 34.8% 33.3% 34.3% 35.6% 43.1% 28.4%
BC Liberal led by Andrew Wilkinson 36.8% 43.6% 30.2% 32.3% 33.9% 40.4% 41.2% 37.5% 32.7% 38%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 15.7% 14.6% 16.8% 17.2% 17.7% 14.3% 13.5% 13.7% 16.8% 18.8%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 11.4% 13.1% 9.6% 13.9% 11% 10% 10.2% 11.3% 7% 14%
Another Party 1.4% 1.8% 0.9% - 2.6% 2% 0.9% 2% 0.3% 0.8%
Unweighted Frequency 866 495 371 77 184 296 309 399 175 292
Weighted Frequency 866 426 440 233 211 239 183 456 153 257
 Supporters say that the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion are a safer mode of
transportation of oil and building them provide an economic benefit for the national
interest. Opponents of pipeline construction say that they are an environmental risk
which outweigh any short-term benefits. Do you support the construction of the Trans
Mountain pipeline?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
Strongly Support 39.2% 48.9% 29.8% 36.2% 35.5% 41.5% 44.3% 37.0% 33.7% 44.7%
Somewhat Support 15.6% 17.9% 13.3% 12.2% 22.0% 15.1% 13.1% 17.9% 9.1% 15.5%
Somewhat Oppose 8.7% 7.6% 9.8% 9.1% 7.7% 9.6% 8.0% 8.8% 9.4% 8.2%
Strongly Oppose 30.0% 21.4% 38.4% 35.4% 28.2% 26.5% 29.6% 29.1% 38.2% 27.3%
Not Sure 6.5% 4.3% 8.7% 7.0% 6.5% 7.2% 5.0% 7.1% 9.6% 4.2%
Unweighted Frequency 900 511 389 81 194 305 320 420 179 301
Weighted Frequency 900 443 457 242 219 248 190 430 149 321

As you might know, Premier John Horgan and the Provincial NDP government is
opposed to the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion. Does this make you more or
less likely to vote NDP?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
More Likely 37.1% 26.5% 47.4% 38.1% 39.0% 35.4% 35.9% 37.3% 48.5% 31.5%
Less Likely 48.2% 57.9% 38.8% 48.0% 41.7% 52.4% 50.4% 47.6% 39.6% 53.1%
Not Sure 14.7% 15.6% 13.8% 13.8% 19.2% 12.2% 13.8% 15.1% 11.9% 15.4%
Unweighted Frequency 900 511 389 81 194 305 320 420 179 301
Weighted Frequency 900 443 457 242 219 248 190 430 149 321
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held Do you support the construction of
today, which party would you vote the Trans Mountain pipeline?
for? Strongly Support
British Columbia New Democratic Somewhat Support
Party led by John Horgan Somewhat Oppose
British Columbia Liberal Party led by Strongly Oppose
Andrew Wilkinson Not Sure
Green Party of British Columbia led by
Andrew Weaver As you might know, Premier John
British Columbia Conservative Party Horgan and the Provincial NDP
led by Scott Anderson government is opposed to the Kinder
Another Party Morgan pipeline expansion. Does this
Undecided make you more or less likely to vote
NDP?
And which party are you leaning More likely
towards? (only asked of respondents Less likely
who were undecided in previous Not Sure
question)
British Columbia New Democratic What is your gender?
Party led by John Horgan Male
British Columbia Liberal Party led by Female
Andrew Wilkinson
Green Party of British Columbia led by What is your age group?
Andrew Weaver 18 to 34 years of age
British Columbia Conservative Party 35 to 49 years of age
led by Scott Anderson 50 to 64 years of age
Another Party 65 years of age or older
Undecided

Supporters say that the Kinder Morgan

pipeline expansion are a safer mode
of transportation of oil and building
them provide an economic benefit
for the national interest. Opponents
of pipeline construction say that
they are an environmental risk which
outweigh any short-term benefits.
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between April 16th, 2018
and April 18th, 2018, among a sample of 900 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in the
province of British Columbia. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording.
Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended
to represent the voting population of British Columbia.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and have not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame for the survey was derived from both a national telephone directory
compiled by Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of Greater Vancouver,
Vancouver Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the case of random digit dials,
respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country they resided
in. In each case, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. The previous statement also applies to the
second survey except the survey was conducted over one day. Interviewing was also spread
as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample of the survey was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016
Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for
weighting are age, gender, and region.

The margin of error is +/- 3.27% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in
each subsamples.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.33%, Females: +/-
4.97%, 18-34 age group: +/- 10.89%, 35-49 age group: +/- 7.04%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.61%,
65+ age group: +/- 5.48%, Greater Vancouver: +/- 4.78%, Vancouver Island: +/- 7.32%, Rest
of British Columbia: +/- 5.65%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.