2/3/2015 The Binomial Distribution

The Binomial Distribution

"Bi" means "two" (like a bicycle has two wheels) ...

... so this is about things with two results.

Tossing a Coin:

Did we get Heads (H) or

Tails (T)

We say the probability of the coin landing H is ½

And the probability of the coin landing T is ½

Throwing a Die:

Did we get a four ... ?

... or not?

We say the probability of a four is 1/6 (one of the six faces is a four).
And the probability of not four is 5/6 (five of the six faces are not a four)

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Let's Toss a Coin!

Toss a fair coin three times ... what is the chance of getting two Heads?

We will use these terms:

Outcome: the result of three coin tosses
Event: "Two Heads" out of three coin tosses

Tosing a coin three times could get any one of these outcomes (H is for heads and T for Tails):

HHH

HHT

HTH

HTT

THH

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THT

TTH

TTT

Which outcomes do we want?

"Two Heads" could be in any order: "HHT", "THH" and "HTH" all have two Heads (and one Tail).

So 3 of the outcomes produce "Two Heads".

What is the probability of each outcome?

Each outcome is equally likely, and there are 8 of them. So each has a probability of 1/8

So the probability of event "Two Heads" is:

Number of Probability of
outcomes we want each outcome
3 × 1/8 = 3/8

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Let's Calculate Them All:

The calculations are (P means "Probability of"):

P(Three Heads) = P(HHH) = 1/8

P(Two Heads) = P(HHT) + P(HTH) + P(THH) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8
P(One Head) = P(HTT) + P(THT) + P(TTH) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8
P(Zero Heads) = P(TTT) = 1/8

We can write this in terms of a Random Variable , X, = "The number of Heads from 3 tosses of a
coin":

P(X = 3) = 1/8
P(X = 2) = 3/8
P(X = 1) = 3/8
P(X = 0) = 1/8

And we can also draw a Bar Graph :

It is symmetrical!

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Making a Formula
Now ... what are the chances of 5 heads in 9 tosses ... to list all outcomes (512) would take a
long time!

So let's make a formula.

In our previous example, how could we get the values 1, 3, 3 and 1 ?

They are actually in the third row of Pascal’s Triangle ... !

Can we make them using a formula?

Sure we can, and here it is:

n = total number
k = number we want

It is often called "n choose k" and you can read more
about it at Combinations and Permutations .

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Note: the "!" means " factorial ", for example 4! = 1×2×3×4 = 24

Let's use it:

Example: 3 tosses getting 2 Heads

We have n=3 and k=2

n! 3! 3×2×1
= = =3
k!(n-k)! 2!(3-2)! 2×1 × 1

So there are 3 outcomes for "2 Heads"

(We knew that already, but now we have a formula for it.)

Let's use it for a harder question:

Example: what are the chances of 5 heads in 9 tosses?

We have n=9 and k=5

n! 9! 9×8×7×6×5×4×3×2×1
= = = 126
k!(n-k)! 5!(9-5)! 5×4×3×2×1 × 4×3×2×1

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And for 9 tosses there are 2 9 = 512 total outcomes, so we get the probability:

Number of Probability of
outcomes we want each outcome
1 126
126 × =
512 512

126 63
P(X=5) = = = 0.24609375
512 256

About a 25% chance.

(Easier than listing them all.)

Bias!
So far the chances of success or failure have been equally likely.

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But what if the coins are biased (land more on one side than another) or choices are not 50/50.

Example: You sell sandwiches. 70% of people choose chicken, the rest
choose pork.

What is the probability of selling 2 chicken sandwiches to the next 3

customers?

This is just like the heads and tails example, but with 70/30 instead of 50/50.

Let's draw a tree diagram :

The "Two Chicken" cases are highlighted.

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Notice that the probabilities for "two chickens" all work out to be 0.147 , because we are multiplying
two 0.7s and one 0.3 in each case.

Can we get the 0.147 from a formula? What we want is "two 0.7s and one 0.3"

0.7 is the probability of each choice we want, call it p

2 is the number of choices we want, call it k

Probability of "choices we want" (two chickens) is: pk

And

The probability of the opposite choice is: 1-p

The total number of choices is: n
The number of opposite choices is: n-k

Probability of "opposite choices" (one pork) is: (1-p)(n-k)

So all choices together is:

pk(1-p)(n-k)

Example: (continued)
p = 0.7 (chance of chicken)
n=3
k=2

So we get:

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pk(1-p)(n-k) = 0.72(1-0.7)(3-2) = 0.72(0.3)(1) = 0.7 × 0.7 × 0.3 = 0.147

which is the probability of each outcome.

And the total number of those outcomes is:

n! 3! 3×2×1
= = =3
k!(n-k)! 2!(3-2)! 2×1 × 1

And we get:

Number of Probability of
outcomes we want each outcome
3 × 0.147 = 0.441

So the probability of event "2 people out of 3 choose chicken" = 0.441

OK. That was a lot of work for something we knew already, but now we can answer harder
questions.

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Example: You say "70% choose chicken, so 7 of the next 10 customers

should choose chicken" ... what are the chances you are right?
p = 0.7
n = 10
k=7

So we get:

pk(1-p)(n-k) = 0.77(1-0.7)(10-7) = 0.77(0.3)(3) = 0.0022235661

That is the probability of each outcome.

And the total number of those outcomes is:

n! 10! 10×9×8
= = = 120
k!(n-k)! 7!(10-7)! 3×2×1

And we get:

Number of Probability of
outcomes we want each outcome
120 × 0.0022235661 = 0.266827932

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In fact the probability of 7 out of 10 choosing chicken is only about 27%

Moral of the story: even though the long-run average is 70%, don't expect 7 out of the
next 10.

Putting it Together
Now we know how to calculate how many:

n!
k!(n-k)!

And the probability of each:

pk(1-p)(n- k)

We can multiply them together:

Probability of k out of n ways:

n!

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P(k out of n) = k (n-k)

k!(n-k)! p (1-p)

The General Binomial Probability Formula

Important Notes:

The trials are independent,

There are only two possible outcomes at each trial,
The probability of "success" at each trial is constant.

Quincunx

Have a play with the Quincunx (then read Quincunx Explained ) to see the
Binomial Distribution in action.

Throw the Die

A fair die is thrown four times. Calculate the probabilities of getting:

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0 Twos
1 Two
2 Twos
3 Twos
4 Twos

In this case n=4, p = P(Two) = 1/6

X is the Random Variable ‘Number of Twos from four throws’.

Substitute x = 0 to 4 into the formula:

n!
P(k out of n) = pk(1-p)(n- k)
k!(n-k)!

Like this (to 4 decimal places):

P(X = 0) = (4!/0!4!) × (1/6)0(5/6)4 = 1 × 1 × (5/6)4 = 0.4823

P(X = 1) = (4!/1!3!) × (1/6)1(5/6)3 = 4 × (1/6) × (5/6)3 = 0.3858

P(X = 2) = (4!/2!2!) × (1/6)2(5/6)2 = 6 × (1/6)2 × (5/6)2 = 0.1157

P(X = 3) = (4!/3!1!) × (1/6)3(5/6)1 = 4 × (1/6)3 × (5/6) = 0.0154

P(X = 4) = (4!/4!0!) × (1/6)4(5/6)0 = 1 × (1/6)4 × 1 = 0.0008

Summary: "for the 4 throws, there is a 48% chance of no twos, 39% chance of 1 two, 12%
chance of 2 twos, 1.5% chance of 3 twos, and a tiny 0.08% chance of all throws being a two (but it
still could happen!)"

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This time the Bar Graph is not symmetrical:

It is not symmetrical!

It is skewed because p is not 0.5

Sports Bikes
Your company makes sports bikes. 90% pass final inspection (and 10% fail
and need to be fixed).

What is the expected Mean and Variance of the 4 next inspections?

First, let's calculate all probabilities.

n = 4,

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p = P(Pass) = 0.9

X is the Random Variable "Number of passes from four inspections".

Substitute x = 0 to 4 into the formula:

n!
P(k out of n) = pk(1-p)(n- k)
k!(n-k)!

Like this:

P(X = 0) = (4!/0!4!) × 0.9 00.1 4 = 1 × 1 × 0.0001 = 0.0001

P(X = 1) = (4!/1!3!) × 0.9 10.1 3 = 4 × 0.9 × 0.001 = 0.0036

P(X = 2) = (4!/2!2!) × 0.9 20.1 2 = 6 × 0.81 × 0.01 = 0.0486

P(X = 3) = (4!/3!2!) × 0.9 30.1 1 = 4 × 0.729 × 0.1 = 0.2916

P(X = 4) = (4!/4!0!) × 0.9 40.1 0 = 1 × 0.6561 × 1 = 0.6561

Summary: "for the 4 next bikes, there is a tiny 0.01% chance of no passes, 0.36% chance of 1
pass, 5% chance of 2 passes, 29% chance of 3 passes, and a whopping 66% chance they all pass
the inspection."

Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation

Let's calculate the Mean , Variance and Standard Deviation for the Sports Bike inspections.

There are (relatively) simple formulas for them. They are a little hard to prove, but they do work!

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The mean, or "expected value", is:

μ = np

For the sports bikes:

μ = 4 × 0.9 = 3.6

So we would expect 3.6 bikes (out of 4) to pass the inspection.

Makes sense really ... 0.9 chance for each bike times 4 bikes equals 3.6

The formula for Variance is:

Variance: σ2 = np(1-p)

And Standard Deviation is the square root of variance:

σ = √(np(1-p))

For the sports bikes:

Variance: σ2 = 4 × 0.9 × 0.1 = 0.36

Standard Deviation is:

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σ = √(0.36) = 0.6

Note: we could also calculate them manually, by making a table like this:

X P(X) X × P(X) X2 × P(X)

0 0.0001 0 0

1 0.0036 0.0036 0.0036

2 0.0486 0.0972 0.1944

3 0.2916 0.8748 2.6244

4 0.6561 2.6244 10.4976

SUM: 3.6 13.32

The mean is the Sum of (X × P(X)):

μ = 3.6

The variance is the Sum of (X2 × P(X)) minus Mean2:

Variance: σ2 = 13.32 − 3.62 = 0.36

Standard Deviation is:

σ = √(0.36) = 0.6
And we got the same results as before (yay!)

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Summary

The General Binomial Probability Formula

n!
P(k out of n) = pk(1-p)(n- k)
k!(n-k)!

Mean value of X: μ = np

Variance of X: σ2 = np(1-p)
Standard Deviation of X: σ = √(np(1-p))

Question 1 Question 2 Question 3 Question 4 Question 5

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