Adol Tinrete - Risc
Adol Tinrete - Risc
Adol Tinrete - Risc
Journal of Youth and Adolescence [jya] PP210-342604 July 17, 2001 11:40 Style file version Nov. 19th, 1999
Three questions were examined in this study: (a) What is the course of emotional
disturbance and delinquency during adolescence and young adulthood? (b) To
what extent do emotional disturbance and delinquency co-occur during adoles-
cence and young adulthood? and (c) What are the longitudinal associations be-
tween emotional disturbance and delinquency in different age and gender cate-
gories during adolescence and young adulthood? Data were used from a national
sample of 1,302 adolescents and young adults, who participated in a 6-year 3-wave
longitudinal study. Findings showed an increase of emotional disturbance and
delinquency from early to midadolescence, after which emotional disturbance sta-
bilized and delinquency declined into young adulthood. A significant but relatively
weak co-occurrence of emotional disturbance and delinquency was found. Multi-
group LISREL analyses demonstrated that a stability model with no cross-lagged
relations fit best for the total sample, and across age and gender categories. Thus,
co-occurrence of emotional disturbance and delinquency during adolescence and
young adulthood seems to result from associated but separate psychopathological
1 Professionally trained in Youth Studies, currently PhD student, Department of Child and Adolescent
Studies, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. Main interests include developmental processes between
internalizing and externalizing problems during adolescence and young adulthood. To whom corre-
spondence should be addressed at Department of Child and Adolescent Studies, Utrecht University,
Heidelberglaan 1, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands; e-mail: [email protected].
2 Head, Research program, Psychiatric Epidemiology, Trimbos Institute, The Netherlands Institute of
Mental Health and Addiction and Professor in cross-cultural education, Katholic University, Nigmegen
(KUN).
3 Professor, Department of Child and Adolescent Studies, Utrecht University, The Netherlands.
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Child and Adolescent Studies, Utrecht University, The
Netherlands.
5 Senior Researcher, The Netherlands Institute of Health Promotion and Disease Prevention, Utrecht,
The Netherlands.
401
0047-2891/01/0800-0401$19.50/0 °
C 2001 Plenum Publishing Corporation
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INTRODUCTION
Some authors have stressed the need for studies on explanatory mecha-
nisms that underlie the co-occurrence of internalizing and externalizing problems
(Angold and Costello, 1993; Caron and Rutter, 1991; Wittchen, 1996). In this
paper, we focus on the longitudinal associations between emotional disturbance
and delinquency. Knowledge about these longitudinal associations is important
because it provides more insight into the natural course and developmental history
of internalizing and externalizing problems during adolescence and young adult-
hood. According to Caron and Rutter (1991) and Angold and Costello (1993), a
number of different interpretations of co-occurrence may be distinguished.
According to the stability perspective, a co-occurrence of internalizing and
externalizing problems is caused by nonspecific (i.e., shared or overlapping) risk
factors. Hence, certain risk factors can lead to internalizing as well as external-
izing problems, and no cross-lagged relationships can be specified between these
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problems. Krueger et al. (1998) and Krueger (1999) state that an association be-
tween internalizing and externalizing problems is caused by separate but associated
core psychopathological processes that refer to internal or external modulations
of basic feelings of anxiety. Different people are supposed to internalize and ex-
ternalize their anxiety feelings to different levels, and maintain their “personal”
internalizing and externalizing habits over their life course.
A second interpretation, the mutual influence perspective, also is based on
the assumption that a co-occurrence of internalizing and externalizing problems
is caused by shared or overlapping risk factors. However, according to this in-
terpretation, internalizing and externalizing problems are assumed to be mutually
reinforcing throughout a certain time interval. Since the same risk factors form
the basis of both problems, the development of one problem is expected to lead
to an increased vulnerability for the other and vice versa. Therefore, cross-lagged
relationships would be apparent between internalizing problems and externalizing
problems in the same time interval.
A third interpretation is generally known as the acting out perspective. Psy-
choanalytic theorists have stated that conduct problems are often part of an inter-
nalizing problem that is “acted out.” The depressive feelings of children and young
adolescents are supposed to be masked by disruptive behavior and other symptoms
that fit into the broader category of externalizing problems (Carlson and Cantwell,
1980). In more general terms, it is often assumed that internalizing problems not
only predate, but also predict externalizing problems (e.g., Gold et al., 1989). Thus,
in this perspective merely one cross-lagged relationship exists from internalizing
problems to externalizing problems.
A fourth interpretation, the failure perspective, also contains the thesis that
one problem is constituting a risk factor for the other. However, unlike the acting out
perspective, this perspective states that externalizing problems predate and predict
internalizing problems. According to Capaldi (1992) and Patterson and Capaldi
(1990), for example, noxious behavior and a lack of skills may result in rejection
and a lack of support by important others (parents, teachers, and peers), which
can in turn lead to pervasive failure experiences in social situations and school.
These failure experiences are viewed as leading to an increased vulnerability for
depressive moods. Therefore, it is stated that only one cross-lagged relationship
exists from externalizing problems to internalizing problems.
METHOD
Data for this study were collected as part of a broader longitudinal survey, the
Utrecht Study of Adolescent Development (USAD, 1991–97), in which the life
course trajectories of adolescents and young adults were examined (Helsen et al.,
2000; Meeus, 1996). To ensure the external validity of the research a nonclinical
sample was used, representative of the Dutch population for gender, age, religious
affiliation, residential status (e.g., living with parents, living alone, or living in a
student dormitory), and educational level (Meeus and ‘t Hart, 1993).
The first wave of the USAD was conducted in 1991. A national sample of
Dutch adolescents and young adults aged 12–24 was drawn from an existing
panel of 10,000 households. Subjects were interviewed in their home environment
by trained interviewers and were given a questionnaire to fill out on their own
and to send back to the research organization. Items about emotional disturbance
and delinquency were included in this self-report questionnaire because it was
expected that some respondents might have trouble answering these questions in
face-to-face interviews. Of all 3,394 adolescents and young adults who returned
the questionnaire, 3,186 respondents (89%) completed all questions regarding
emotional disturbance and delinquency, thereby constituting the baseline sample.
Four age groups were represented: early adolescence (12–14), midadolescence
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(15–17), late adolescence (18–20) and young adulthood (21–24). Two follow-up
measurements took place in 1994 and 1997. About 61% of all baseline respondents
participated in the second wave of 1994, and approximately 66% of these also
cooperated in the third wave of 1997. The total response rate from Wave 1 to
Wave 3 was 41%.
An attrition analysis was carried out to test whether there were differences be-
tween the remaining longitudinal sample and those who dropped out from Wave 1
to Wave 3 according to gender, age, educational level, residential status, and
measures of emotional disturbance and delinquency. Logistic regression analy-
ses showed that attrition was associated with gender (B = −0.26, p < 0.01) and
age (B = −0.07, p < 0.01). Males and young adults dropped out more often
than females and adolescents. However, no significant differences were found be-
tween the participants and drop outs on measures of educational level, residential
status, emotional disturbance, and delinquency. Although the results of this study
must be interpreted with caution, the findings concerning emotional disturbance
and delinquency reported in this paper can be generalized to broader populations
of adolescents and young adults.
Finally, a total of 1,302 respondents participated in all 3 waves. This longitu-
dinal sample consisted of 550 boys (42%) and 752 girls (58%). The respondents
were evenly distributed over the 4 age categories (based on age at first wave): 321
early adolescents (25%), 341 midadolescents (26%), 261 late adolescents (20%),
and 379 young adults (29%). Further, the educational level of the respondents
could be differentiated as 18% low, 42% average, and 40% high. About 48% of all
respondents had a religious affiliation, while 52% had none. Approximately 78%
of all respondents lived at home with their parents, whereas 22% lived on their
own or in a student dormitory. In total, 99% of the sample consisted of adolescents
who were of Dutch origin, whereas 1% had a different ethnic background.
Measures
General Well-Being
Psychological stress and depressive mood were assessed, using a short version
of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ; Goldberg, 1978; Kienhorst et al., 1990;
Meeus, 1993). The GHQ consists of 2 subscales “psychological stress” (6 items)
and “depressive mood” (4 items), and measures the degree to which psychological
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stress and depressive mood have recently been experienced. Respondents were
asked to indicate on a 4-point scale (1 – not at all, to 4 – much more than usual)
the extent to which symptoms of psychic stress (e.g., feeling tense and nervous)
or depression (e.g., feeling unhappy and dejected) had been experienced during
the past 4 weeks. Both scales had high internal consistencies: Cronbach’s alpha’s
for psychological stress and depressive mood were 0.89 and 0.84, respectively, at
Wave 1, 0.92 and 0.94, respectively, at Wave 2, and 0.91 and 0.92, respectively, at
Wave 3.
Suicidal Thoughts
The tendency to think about suicide was assessed with 1 item: “In the last
12 months, have you thought about committing suicide and putting an end to your
life?” (Diekstra et al., 1991). Respondents answered this question on a 4-point
scale (1 – never, to 4 – very often).
Emotional Disturbance
Delinquency
The internal consistency of the scale was Cronbach’s α = 0.62 at Wave 1, 0.60 at
Wave 2, and 0.58 at Wave 3 (for more details on the reliability and validity of this
delinquency measure, see Luijpers, 1999; ‘t Hart, 1994).
Strategy of Analysis
Fig. 1. Four alternative structural models for the longitudinal associations of emotional disturbance
and delinquency (R indicates residual information).
models were fitted on the data of the total longitudinal sample. After this first test,
several multigroup analyses were carried out to test if the alternative models fit
across different age and gender groups.
Model fit was assessed by the following global fit measures: χ 2 , χ 2 /df ratio,
RMSEA, GFI, CFI, and AIC. The χ 2 provides a significance test of the null
hypothesis that the model is correct. However, this statistic is extremely vulnerable
to the effects of sample size. Large sample sizes lead to a tendency to reject a
model, even when most of the covariance in the data is accounted for (Williams
and Holahan, 1994). The χ 2 /df ratio, which indicates the fit of a model per df used,
was proposed by Jöreskog (1969) as a fit index that could account for sample size
effects associated with χ 2 . A threshold value smaller or equal to 2 is proposed
to indicate an acceptable fit (Wheaton et al., 1977). The Root Mean Square Error
of Approximation (RMSEA, see Steiger, 1990) is another measure suitable for
assessing the fit of a model per df used. A value of 0.05 or less indicates a close fit
of the model to the data (Browne and Cudeck, 1993). The Goodness of Fit Index
(GFI) is an estimate of the extent to which the sample variances and covariances
are reproduced by the hypothesized model. Bentler’s Comparative Fit Index (CFI,
see Bentler, 1989) is an incremental fit index derived from the comparison of
the hypothesized model with a null model in which no relationships between the
variables in a model are specified. For both the GFI and the CFI, a value of 0.90 and
higher indicates an acceptable fit. Finally, Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC,
see Akaike, 1987) is used as a parsimony-based fit index. The model that yields
the smallest AIC-value can be considered the most parsimonious.
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RESULTS
412
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Table I. Standardized Means and Standard Deviations for Emotional Disturbance and Delinquency (N = 1302)
Gender Agea
Total Boys Girls 12–14 15–17 18–20 21–24
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Emot. dist.b
T1 −0.01 (1.00) −0.17 (0.88) 0.12 (1.06) −0.24 (0.92) −0.01 (1.01) 0.07 (1.00) 0.15 (1.01)
T2 −0.02 (1.00) −0.16 (0.91) 0.11 (1.05) 0.02 (1.09) −0.01 (0.98) −0.01 (1.00) 0.00 (0.93)
T3 −0.04 (1.00) −0.12 (0.88) 0.08 (1.07) 0.04 (0.98) −0.10 (0.88) −0.08 (0.85) 0.05 (1.13)
Delinquencyc
T1 0.01 (1.00) 0.28 (1.19) −0.20 (0.77) 0.01 (0.94) 0.26 (1.23) 0.00 (98) −0.23 (0.74)
July 17, 2001
T2 0.02 (1.00) 0.28 (1.20) −0.20 (0.77) 0.22 (1.22) 0.08 (1.09) −0.10 (0.88) −0.19 (0.69)
T3 0.02 (1.00) 0.29 (1.25) −0.21 (0.70) 0.28 (1.25) 0.05 (1.07) 0.03 (0.86) −0.26 (0.67)
a Longitudinal data are presented vertically for each of the age groups; cross-sectional data are presented horizontally.
b Standardized scores for emotional disturbance in the total sample range from −1.17 to 5.33 (T1), −1.26 to 5.77 (T2), and −1.28 to 5.34 (T3).
c Standardized scores for Delinquency in the total sample range from −0.59 to 5.96 (T1), −0.59 to 7.84 (T2), and −0.53 to 6.15 (T3).
Overbeek et al.
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late adolescence and young adulthood. Girls had higher levels of emotional distur-
bance and also experienced a rise in emotional disturbance earlier in adolescence
than did boys. The mean level of delinquency also increased from early through
midadolescence, but declined again in late adolescence and young adulthood. Boys
reported higher levels of delinquency as well as a stronger increase in delinquency
than did girls, during adolescence.
LISREL analysis of the total sample on the 4 alternative models showed that
the stability model offered the closest fit (Table III). Its χ 2 /df ratio almost reached
the threshold value of 2, while all other fit indices indicated a close fit of the
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Table II. Correlation Coefficients Between Emotional Disturbance and Delinquency (N = 1,302)
Gender Agea
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Emot. dist. T2 Delinquency T1 0.07∗∗ 0.08∗∗ 0.14∗∗∗ 0.11∗∗ 0.10∗∗ 0.06 0.00
Delinquency T2 0.10∗∗∗ 0.12∗∗∗ 0.16∗∗∗ 0.16∗∗∗ 0.13∗∗∗ 0.03 0.01
Delinquency T3 0.08∗∗∗ 0.12∗∗∗ 0.13∗∗∗ 0.13∗∗∗ 0.09∗∗ 0.07 −0.02
Emot. dist. T3 Delinquency T1 0.04 0.06 0.06∗∗ 0.07 0.08 −0.01 0.02
Delinquency T2 0.04 0.02 0.10∗∗∗ 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.03
Delinquency T3 0.10∗∗∗ 0.09∗ 0.19∗∗∗ 0.16∗∗∗ 0.11∗∗ 0.12∗∗ 0.05
Auto correlations: Emotional disturbance
July 17, 2001
Emot. dist. T1 Emot. Dist. T2 0.38∗∗∗ 0.41∗∗∗ 0.34∗∗∗ 0.44∗∗∗ 0.39∗∗∗ 0.32∗∗∗ 0.38∗∗∗
Emot. Dist. T3 0.31∗∗∗ 0.33∗∗∗ 0.28∗∗∗ 0.30∗∗∗ 0.25∗∗∗ 0.37∗∗∗ 0.36∗∗∗
Emot. dist. T2 Emot. Dist. T3 0.40∗∗∗ 0.41∗∗∗ 0.38∗∗∗ 0.30∗∗∗ 0.25∗∗∗ 0.37∗∗∗ 0.36∗∗∗
Auto correlations: Delinquency
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Table III. Weighted Least Square Estimations of the Stability Model, Acting Out Model, Failure Model, and Mutual
Influence Model (N = 1,302)
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Fit index
χ 2 (df ) p-value χ 2 /df ratio GFI CFI RMSEA AIC
Whole sample
Stability 13.01 (6) 0.04 2.17 0.98 0.97 0.03 43.01
Acting out 67.63 (6) 0.00 11.27 0.92 0.78 0.09 97.63
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Mut. infl. 94.42 (19) 0.00 4.97 0.96 0.63 0.08 140.42
Multigroup: Age differences
Stability 107.21 (51) 0.00 2.10 0.96 0.84 0.06 173.21
Acting out 167.29 (51) 0.00 3.28 0.92 0.67 0.08 233.29
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Fig. 2. Parameter estimations for each of the 4 alternative structural models in the total sample. Only
significant path coefficients are presented. Superscript a indicates the stability model provided an
adequate fit for the total sample and the closest fit for different age and gender categories.
stability model to the data of the total sample. The acting out model and mutual
influence model both fitted poorly, as was indicated in higher values for the χ 2 /df
ratio, RMSEA, and AIC, and lower values for the GFI and CFI. Furthermore,
the specified cross-lagged relationship from emotional disturbance at Wave 1 to
delinquency at Wave 2 had a negative value instead of a positive one, which
was not in line with a priori specifications of the acting out model and mutual
influence model. For the failure model, high GFI and CFI values were obtained.
Nevertheless, its χ 2 /df ratio and AIC value were rather high, indicating that the
failure model fit less well than the stability model. Although all cross-lagged
relationships specified in the acting out model, failure model, and mutual influence
model attained significance (see Fig. 2), none of these improved the fit over the
already existent stability paths.
As is shown in Table III, a multigroup LISREL analysis of gender differences
made clear that the stability model best represented the longitudinal associations
between emotional disturbance and delinquency for both boys and girls. Although
the CFI indicated an insufficient fit, the other fit- indices (which also take the
parsimony of a model into account) presented another picture. The χ 2 /df ratio lay
close at a threshold value of 2, whereas the RMSEA indicated a close fit of the model
to the data, and the AIC also had a relatively low value. The acting out model, failure
model, and mutual influence model did not fit on the data of both gender groups,
as was clearly indicated by the various fit indices (Table III). As in the previous
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DISCUSSION
This study demonstrated that from early through midadolescence the mean
level of emotional disturbance increases, which is in accordance with results of
previous research (Elliott et al., 1989; Kandel and Davies, 1982). Moreover, our
results showed that internalizing problems stabilize from late adolescence to young
adulthood, as was also indicated by studies of Ferdinand and Verhulst (1995,
1996). Further, our study corresponds to earlier findings that girls report higher
levels of emotional disturbance and start developing internalizing problems earlier
in adolescence than boys do (Campbell et al., 1992; Elliott et al., 1989; Hankin
et al., 1997, 1998; Kandel and Davies, 1982; Leadbeater et al., 1999). This study
also showed a peak in delinquency at midadolescence and a steady decline from
midadolescence until young adulthood, which is in agreement with research on
the age–crime curve (Hirschi and Gottfredson, 1983; Loeber et al., 1998; Moffitt,
1993). Our finding that boys report a higher delinquent activity than girls do has
been found in numerous other studies as well (e.g., Rantakillio et al., 1995). Thus,
our expectations concerning the course of emotional disturbance and delinquency
during adolescence and young adulthood were confirmed. Overall, the findings
indicate that adolescence is an important risk period for the development of more
severe internalizing and externalizing psychosocial problems, whereas emotional
disturbance stabilizes and delinquency decreases steadily during young adulthood.
According to Steinberg (1987), a substantial amount of adolescents’ risk
behavior might be caused by a difference in opinions between adolescents and
their parents over the pace of the process of becoming independent. The notion of
juvenile delinquency as a form of testing personal boundaries and exploring values
and beliefs fits in with this explanation, because adolescents will probably want to
“push their limits” and see how far they can go in certain life domains. Moreover,
it is closely linked to Arnett’s conception of adolescent risk behavior as a form
of thrill seeking (Arnett, 2000), which concerns the active seeking out of novel
and intense experiences. Probably, the decline of delinquent behavior in young
adulthood is due to the fact that other risk behaviors (e.g., binge drinking, risky
sexual behavior) become more prominent and replace earlier forms, since these
behaviors can be pursued more easily as soon as monitoring parents are absent
(Arnett, 1999, 2000).
Although the results demonstrated fluctuations in the mean level of emo-
tional disturbance and delinquency during adolescence and young adulthood, the
normative stability coefficients (i.e., auto correlations for emotional disturbance
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The co-occurrence correlations found in this study ranged from 0.08 to 0.10
over the 3 waves. Thus, when the focus is on the associations of internalizing
and externalizing psychosocial problems in a normal population of adolescents
and young adults rather than on psychiatric disorders, there is a significant but
low co-occurrence between emotional disturbance and delinquency. There are
some possible explanations for the different results of studies focusing on psychi-
atric disorders and psychosocial problems. For example, substance use in adoles-
cence is often considered to be a risk factor for later psychosocial problems (e.g.,
Aneshensel and Huba, 1983; Brook et al., 1998; Damphousse and Kaplan, 1998).
However, numerous studies have shown no or only small associations between
low self-esteem, depression, or psychological stress on the one hand and, for in-
stance, alcohol use on the other (Pertraitis et al., 1995). Thus, for the majority of
adolescents, alcohol use is quite normal and not a signal of threatened emotional
development. A similar argument can be made regarding delinquency. Previous
research has clearly shown that a certain amount of norm-violating or delinquent
behavior can be seen as a part of normal development and is not associated with
severe emotional problems in adolescence (Loeber et al., 1998; Maggs et al., 1997;
Moffitt, 1993; Shedler and Block, 1990; Silbereisen and Noack, 1988). Testing per-
sonal boundaries and exploring values and beliefs are normative behaviors during
adolescence and serve important developmental ends (Erikson, 1968; Havighurst,
1972). In addition, the relatively low co-occurrence found in this study seems to
indicate that only the more serious delinquent behaviors are linked to emotional
disturbance. It is possible that if we had concentrated on more serious externaliz-
ing behaviors, as for example Capaldi (1992) did, we would have found stronger
relationships with emotional disturbance.
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Despite the age and gender differences in the course and co-occurrence of
emotional disturbance and delinquency, the stability model provided an adequate
fit for the data of the total sample, and provided the closest fit for different age and
gender categories. The cross-lagged mechanisms that were examined in the co-
occurrence of emotional disturbance and delinquency did not fit the data well. This
finding stands in contrast with the results of psychiatric–clinical or psychiatric–
epidemiological studies, which have often pointed toward the temporal primacy
of depressive over conduct disorders or vice versa (e.g., Block and Gjerde, 1990;
Kovacs et al., 1988; Rohde et al., 1996). An explanation for this might be the
fact that whereas this study focused on delinquency, most other studies focused
on a broader category of conduct problems. It is likely that behaviors that are
seen as problematic but are not manifestations of delinquency (e.g., frequent argu-
ments with parents, lying, destroying one’s own property, teasing) have a stronger
relationship with emotional disturbances in adolescence and young adulthood.
The results of this study also contradict the findings of earlier psychosocial–
epidemiological research conducted by Elliott et al. (1989) and Capaldi (1992).
While these two studies pointed to the existence of specific temporal patterns
and cross-lagged longitudinal associations, our study demonstrated that a stability
model was the best representation for the longitudinal associations between inter-
nalizing and externalizing psychosocial problems. Two reasons might be put for-
ward to explain the different results. First, different samples were used. Capaldi’s
sample, for instance, consisted of early adolescent boys living in a neighborhood
with a relatively high delinquency rate, whereas the sample in this study consisted
of adolescent and young adult males and females from the general population.
Cross-lagged influence between various manifestations of internalizing and exter-
nalizing problems is probably only relevant for “at risk” populations. An indication
of this phenomenon might be the fact that co-occurrence appears to be related to a
more severe prognosis of psychic problems as well (Angold and Costello, 1993).
Accordingly, it might be stated that internalizing and externalizing problems must
develop beyond a certain “intensity-threshold” before they become risk factors for
the development of subsequent psychic problems. Second, different time intervals
were used between the measurements. In the studies of Elliott et al. and Capaldi
the time intervals between measurements were 1 year and 2 years, respectively,
while in this study the time interval spanned 3 years. Shorter time intervals may
lead to stronger cross-lagged relationships in longitudinal research, because over
longer periods of time certain intermittent variables (i.e., negative life events, status
transitions) have a higher chance of influencing these relationships. On the other
hand, it might be stated that even with shorter time intervals between waves, the
relatively low cross-sectional co-occurrence between emotional disturbance and
delinquency would still lead us to expect weak cross-lagged associations.
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Limitations
Some shortcomings of this study should be mentioned. First, our study cannot
elucidate whether the rather low estimates of the cross-lagged relationships (found
for the acting out model, failure model, and mutual influence model) have been
caused by the relatively long time interval between each of the waves. During
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