Meaning of Inflation:

A rise in price level or fall in the value of money is often the result of the excessive amount of
money, or excessive issue of paper currency and this is commonly referred to as inflation.

The various economists have defined inflation as follows:

“Inflation is a general and continuing increase in prices. This does not imply that all prices are
increasing, some prices may even be falling, and the general trend must be upward. The rise in
prices must also be continuing; once and for all price increases are excluded.” – Michael R.
Edgmand

“We define inflation as rising prices, not as high prices. In some sense, then inflation is a
disequilibrium state.” – Gardner Ackley

“By inflation we mean a time of generally rising prices for goods and factors production-
rising prices for bread, cars, haircuts, rising wages, rents etc.” – Paul A. Samuelson
“Inflation is a state in which the value of money is falling or prices are rising.” – Crowther

Types of Inflation:
As the nature of inflation is not uniform in an economy for all the time, it is wise to distinguish
between different types of inflation. Such analysis is useful to study the distributional and other
effects of inflation as well as to recommend anti-inflationary policies.

Inflation may be caused by a variety of factors. Its intensity or pace may be different at different
times. It may also be classified in accordance with the reactions of the government toward
inflation.

Thus, one may observe different types of inflation in the contemporary society:

(a) According to Causes:

i. Currency Inflation:
This type of inflation is caused by the printing of currency notes.

ii. Credit Inflation:

Being profit-making institutions, commercial banks sanction more loans and advances to the
public than what the economy needs. Such credit expansion leads to a rise in price level.

iii. Deficit-Induced Inflation:

The budget of the government reflects a deficit when expenditure exceeds revenue. To meet this
gap, the government may ask the central bank to print additional money. Since pumping of
additional money is required to meet the budget deficit, any price rise may be called deficit-
induced inflation.

iv. Demand-Pull Inflation:

An increase in aggregate demand over the available output leads to a rise in the price level. Such
inflation is called demand-pull inflation (henceforth DPI). But why does aggregate demand rise?
Classical economists attribute this rise in aggregate demand to money supply.
If the supply of money in an economy exceeds the available goods and services, DPI appears. It
has been described by Coulborn as a situation of “too much money chasing too few goods”.

Keynesians hold a different argument.

They argue that there can be an autonomous increase in aggregate demand or spending, such as a
rise in consumption demand or investment or government spending or a tax cut or a net increase
in exports (i.e., C + I + G + X – M) with no increase in money supply. This would prompt
upward adjustment in price. Thus, DPI is caused by both monetary factors (classical argument)
and non-monetary factors (Keynesian argument).

DPI can be explained in terms of the following figure (Fig. 11.2) where we measure output on
the horizontal axis and price level on the vertical axis. In Range 1, total spending is too short of
full employment output, Yf. There is little or no rise in price level. As demand now rises, output
will rise. The economy enters Range 2 where output approaches full employment situation.

Note that, in this region, price level begins to rise. Ultimately, the economy reaches full
employment situation, i.e., Range 3, where output does not rise but price level is pulled upward.
This is demand-pull inflation. The essence of this type of inflation is “too much spending
chasing too few goods.”

v. Cost-Push Inflation:
Inflation in an economy may arise from the overall increase in the cost of production. This type
of inflation is known as cost-push inflation (henceforth CPI). Cost of production may rise due to
increase in the price of raw materials, wages, etc. Often trade unions are blamed for wage rise
since wage rate is not market-determined. Higher wage means higher cost of production.

Prices of commodities are thereby increased. A wage-price spiral comes into operation. But, at
the same time, firms are to be blamed also for the price rise since they simply raise prices to
expand their profit margins. Thus we have two important variants of CPI: wage-push inflation
and profit-push inflation. Anyway, CPI stems from the leftward shift of the aggregate supply
curve.

(b) According to Speed or Intensity:

i. Creeping or Mild Inflation:
If the speed of upward thrust in prices is very low then we have creeping inflation. What speed
of annual price rise is a creeping one has not been stated by the economists? To some, a creeping
or mild inflation is one when annual price rise varies between 2 p.c. and 3 p.c.

If a rate of price rise is kept at this level, it is considered to be helpful for economic development.
Others argue that if annual price rise goes slightly beyond 3 p.c. mark, still then it is considered
to be of no danger.

ii. Walking Inflation:

If the rate of annual price increase lies between 3 p.c. and 4 p.c., then we have a situation of
walking inflation. When mild inflation is allowed to fan out, walking inflation appears. These
two types of inflation may be described as ‘moderate inflation’.

Often, one-digit inflation rate is called ‘moderate inflation’ which is not only predictable, but
also keep people’s faith on the monetary system of the country’. People’s confidence get lost
once moderately maintained rate of inflation goes out of control and the economy is then caught
with the galloping inflation.

iii. Galloping and Hyperinflation:

Walking inflation may be converted into running inflation. Running inflation is dangerous. If it is
not controlled, it may ultimately be converted to galloping or hyperinflation. It is an extreme
form of inflation when an economy gets shattered. “Inflation in the double or triple digit range of
20, 100 or 200 per cent a year is labelled galloping inflation”.

iv. Government’s Reaction to Inflation:

Inflationary situation may be open or suppressed. Because of ant-inflationary policies pursued by
the government, inflation may not be an embarrassing one. For instance, an increase in income
leads to an increase in consumption spending which pulls the price level up.

If the consumption spending is countered by the government via price control and rationing
device, the inflationary situation may be called a suppressed one. Once the government curbs are
lifted, the suppressed inflation becomes open inflation. Open inflation may then result in
hyperinflation.

Causes of Inflation:
Inflation is mainly caused by excess demand/or decline in aggregate supply or output. Former
leads to a rightward shift of aggregate demand curve while the latter causes aggregate supply
curve to shift leftward. Former is called demand-pull inflation (DPI) and the latter is called cost-
push inflation (CPI).

Before describing the factors that lead to a rise in aggregate demand and a decline in aggregate
supply, we like to explain “demand-pull”and “cost- push” theories of inflation.

Demand-Pull Inflation Theory:

There are two theoretical approaches to DPI —one is the classical and the other is the Keynesian.
According to classical economists or monetarists, inflation is caused by the increase in money
supply which leads to a rightward shift in negative sloping aggregate demand curve.

Given a situation of full employment, classicists maintained that a change in money supply
brings about an equi-proportionate change in price level. That is why monetrarists argue that
inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.

Keynesians do not find any link between money supply and price level causing an upward shift
in aggregate demand. According to Keynesians, aggregate demand may rise due to a rise in
consumer demand or investment demand or government expenditure or net exports or the
combination of these four. Given full employment, such increase in aggregate demand leads to
an upward pressure in prices. Such a situation is called DPI. This can be explained graphically.

Just like the price of a commodity, the level of prices is determined by the interaction of
aggregate demand and aggregate supply. In Fig. 11.3, aggregate demand curve is negative
sloping while aggregate supply curve before the full employment stage is positive sloping and
becomes vertical after the full employment stage. AD1 is the initial aggregate demand curve that
intersects the aggregate supply curve AS at point E1.

The price level thus determined is OP1. As aggregate demand curve shifts to AD2, price level
rises to OP2. Thus, an increase in aggregate demand at the full employment stage leads to an
increase in price level only, rather than the level of output. However, how much price level will
rise following an increase in aggregate demand depends on the slope of the AS curve.
Cost-Push Inflation Theory:
In addition to aggregate demand, aggregate supply also generates inflationary process. As
inflation is caused by a leftward shift of the aggregate supply, we call it CPI. CPI is usually
associated with the non-monetary factors. CPI arises due to the increase in cost of production.
Cost of production may rise due to a rise in the cost of raw materials or increase in wages.

Such increases in costs are passed on to consumers by firms by raising the prices of the products.
Rising wages lead to rising costs. Rising costs lead to rising prices. And rising prices, again,
prompt trade unions to demand higher wages. Thus, an inflationary wage-price spiral starts.

This causes aggregate supply curve to shift leftward. This can be demonstrated graphically (Fig.
11.4) where AS1 is the initial aggregate supply curve. Below the full employment stage this AS
curve is positive sloping and at full employment stage it becomes perfectly inelastic. Intersection
point (E1) of AD1 and AS1 curves determines the price level.

Now, there is a leftward shift of aggregate supply curve to AS2. With no change in aggregate
demand, this causes price level to rise to OP2 and output to fall to OY2.
With the reduction in output, employment in the economy declines or unemployment rises.
Further shift in the AS curve to AS2 results in higher price level (OP3) and a lower volume of
aggregate output (OY3). Thus, CPI may arise even below the full employment (Yf) stage.

Causes of Demand-Pull Inflation:

DPI originates in the monetary sector. Monetarists’ argument that “only money matters” is based
on the assumption that at or near full employment, excessive money supply will increase
aggregate demand and will thus cause inflation.An increase in nominal money supply shifts
aggregate demand curve rightward. This enables people to hold excess cash balances. Spending
of excess cash balances by them causes price level to rise. Price level will continue to rise until
aggregate demand equals aggregate supply.

Keynesians argue that inflation originates in the non-monetary sector or the real sector.
Aggregate demand may rise if there is an increase in consumption expenditure following a tax
cut. There may be an autonomous increase in business investment or government expenditure.
Governmental expenditure is inflationary if the needed money is procured by the government by
printing additional money.

In brief, an increase in aggregate demand i.e., increase in (C + I + G + X – M) causes price level

to rise. However, aggregate demand may rise following an increase in money supply generated
by the printing of additional money (classical argument) which drives prices upward. Thus,
money plays a vital role. That is why Milton Friedman believes that inflation is always and
everywhere a monetary phenomenon.

There are other reasons that may push aggregate demand and, hence, price level upwards. For
instance, growth of population stimulates aggregate demand. Higher export earnings increase the
purchasing power of the exporting countries.

Causes of CPI:
It is the cost factors that pull the prices upward. One of the important causes of price rise is the
rise in price of raw materials. For instance, by an administrative order the government may hike
the price of petrol or diesel or freight rate. Firms buy these inputs now at a higher price. This
leads to an upward pressure on cost of production.

Not only this, CPI is often imported from outside the economy. Increase in the price of petrol by
OPEC compels the government to increase the price of petrol and diesel. These two important
raw materials are needed by every sector, especially the transport sector. As a result, transport
costs go up resulting in higher general price level.

Again, CPI may be induced by wage-push inflation or profit-push inflation. Trade unions
demand higher money wages as a compensation against inflationary price rise. If increase in
money wages exceeds labour productivity, aggregate supply will shift upward and leftward.
Firms often exercise power by pushing up prices independently of consumer demand to expand
their profit margins.

Fiscal policy changes, such as an increase in tax rates leads to an upward pressure in cost of
production. For instance, an overall increase in excise tax of mass consumption goods is
definitely inflationary. That is why government is then accused of causing inflation.

Finally, production setbacks may result in decreases in output. Natural disaster, exhaustion of
natural resources, work stoppages, electric power cuts, etc., may cause aggregate output to
decline.

In the midst of this output reduction, artificial scarcity of any goods by traders and hoarders just
simply ignite the situation.

Inefficiency, corruption, mismanagement of the economy may also be the other reasons. Thus,
inflation is caused by the interplay of various factors. A particular factor cannot be held
responsible for inflationary price rise.
Effects of Inflation:
People’s desires are inconsistent. When they act as buyers they want prices of goods and services
to remain stable but as sellers they expect the prices of goods and services should go up. Such a
happy outcome may arise for some individuals; “but, when this happens, others will be getting
the worst of both worlds.” Since inflation reduces purchasing power it is bad.

When price level goes up, there is both a gainer and a loser. To evaluate the consequence of
inflation, one must identify the nature of inflation which may be anticipated and unanticipated. If
inflation is anticipated, people can adjust with the new situation and costs of inflation to the
society will be smaller. In reality, people cannot predict accurately future events or people often
make mistakes in predicting the course of inflation. In other words, inflation may be
unanticipated when people fail to adjust completely. This creates various problems.

One can study the effects of unanticipated inflation under two broad headings:
(a) Effects of Inflation on Income and Wealth Distribution:
During inflation, usually people experience rise in incomes. But some people gain during
inflation at the expense of others. Some individuals gain because their money incomes rise more
rapidly than the prices and some lose because prices rise more rapidly than their incomes during
inflation. Thus, it redistributes income and wealth.

Though no conclusive evidence can be cited, it can be asserted that following categories of
people are affected by inflation differently:
i. Creditors and Debtors.
ii. Bond and Debenture-Holders.
iii. Investors.
iv. Salaried People and Wage-Earners.
v. Profit-Earners, Speculators and Black Marketers.

(b). Effect on Production and Economic Growth:

Inflation may or may not result in higher output. Below the full employment stage, inflation has
a favourable effect on production. In general, profit is a rising function of the price level. An
inflationary situation gives an incentive to businessmen to raise prices of their products so as to
earn higher doses of profit.