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    Combat Modeling Evaluation

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    binkyfish
    The McClintic Theater Model (MTM) is a large scale combat simulation model used at USMA for education and research. Cadets study the model's operations research techniques in a combat modeling exercise. Some cadets conducted individual research on the model's attrition subroutine. Future cadet research will analyze other subroutines and apply the methodology to the Joint Theater Level Simulation. USMA faculty are validating the structures and inputs of MTM and JTLS through a unique effort comparing the models to military history.

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    Combat Modeling Evaluation

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    binkyfish
    406 views292 pages
    The McClintic Theater Model (MTM) is a large scale combat simulation model used at USMA for education and research. Cadets study the model's operations research techniques in a combat modeling exercise. Some cadets conducted individual research on the model's attrition subroutine. Future cadet research will analyze other subroutines and apply the methodology to the Joint Theater Level Simulation. USMA faculty are validating the structures and inputs of MTM and JTLS through a unique effort comparing the models to military history.

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    Combat Modeling Evaluation

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    The McClintic Theater Model (MTM) is a large scale combat simulation model used at USMA for education and research. Cadets study the model's operations research techniques in a combat modeling exercise. Some cadets conducted individual research on the model's attrition subroutine. Future cadet research will analyze other subroutines and apply the methodology to the Joint Theater Level Simulation. USMA faculty are validating the structures and inputs of MTM and JTLS through a unique effort comparing the models to military history.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    406 views292 pages

    Combat Modeling Evaluation

    Uploaded by

    binkyfish
    The McClintic Theater Model (MTM) is a large scale combat simulation model used at USMA for education and research. Cadets study the model's operations research techniques in a combat modeling exercise. Some cadets conducted individual research on the model's attrition subroutine. Future cadet research will analyze other subroutines and apply the methodology to the Joint Theater Level Simulation. USMA faculty are validating the structures and inputs of MTM and JTLS through a unique effort comparing the models to military history.

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    6D-R157 322 COM13AT MODELING EVALUATION AT THE UNITED STATES 1/3

    MILITARY ACADEMY(U) MILITARY ACADEMY WEST POINT NY


    V MIBETTENCOURT JUN 85
    UNCLASSIFIED F/ 9/2 NL

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    Jon 1965

    UCOMBAT NDLING VALUATION

    UK UKIUD STAMIS MILITARY ACAMM

    By
    LTC Vernou H. bettescourts Jr.
    Assistant Professor. Operation Rsesarch
    Departsent. of lsteering
    United States military Acadeuy
    West Point, ew York 10"6-1779

    ... ..

    The viw expressed berei. are those of the author and do sot pur-
    port to reflect the position of the Vaited States Military Academy,
    Department of the Army, or the Department of befemee.

    has bIn
    wzppovi I
    _____ ____ 85 06 24 016
    DISCLAIMER NOTICE

    THIS DOCUMENT IS BEST QUALITY


    PRACTICABLE. THE COPY FURNISHED
    TO DTIC CONTAINED A SIGNIFICANT
    NUMBER OF PAGES WHICH DO NOT
    REPRODUCE LEGIBLY.

    IM

    II
    ISCURITY CLASSflCAI@N OF ThIS PAGE ("on Date ftntwOE _____________

    READ INSIRUCTIONS
    REPOR DOCMEtTATIOt4 PAGE BEFORE COMPL =Ig FORM
    111R"a.1M GO7 ACESONN .RVCIPICNTrS CATALOG NMUER

    4TITE ( d Swbd" S. TYPE OF REPORT 6 PERIOD COVERED

    Combat Nodeling Evaluation at USNjA Interimi Report


    Bal'-Jtmn 85

    1AUsTHOA# a.. CONTRACT OR GRANT.'NUNSEffr.)

    LTC Vernon M. Bettencourt, Jr., Editor

    9. PIERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAMIE AND ADDRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT. TASU
    Department of*Engineering, MADN-F AREA & WORK UNIT NUMbER
    USMA
    West Point, New York 10996-1779
    11. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12% RtEPORT DATE

    1S. NUSEfR OF PAGES

    14. MONITORING AGENCY NAMIE &ADORIESS1f Eiflfbrn from Controfllb Office) IFECIPRITY CLASS. (fc1Iem4vport)

    Unclassififed
    I" a.OCkASWICATION/DOWNGRAOING

    I. OISTR48UTION STATEMENT (of Ohio Rmport)

    This doc'ument has been opproved


    for Public r&,lam- "2_-d rou~; 110
    dlattuliou In uuhixnted.

    17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of tho a&@'acI ontae In Block 2.It 411tated born RSport

    IS. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

    III. KEY WORDS (Contbnue on rovrwo* acawy mm Idantltf by block mobft)

    Simulationl, combat model, wargazes, McClintic Theater Model, Joint Theater


    Level, Simulation, validations, attrition, movement, historical modeling.

    ISL AXSTACrfh mo - inocreb Nowwwomuood MI' by lock numer)

    The McClintic Theater Model (MTM) is a large scale, analytic and stochastic
    simulation, computer assisted theater level combat model. The model has two
    major uses at the 'United States Military Academy: (USMA) as an educational
    and a research tool for cadets and faculty. In the operations research
    curriculum, the cadets study 1MfIM's application of operations research techni-
    ques. These techniques are aggregated Into a three day extended laboratory
    exercise in combat modeling. Several cadets have performed individual research

    WD ROO
    EION D0 I0NovasI
    65110SLERTI
    SOLCUNTY CLMWFICATION OF TIS PAGE (11*., Data Efntered)
    WGcUNTY CLASOFSCATWN OF ThIS PA@UtMM Data Shdste

    outlfte ia -the- mode., Future, cadet resarch. xd-11 f c us on parametrft analys


    Pf other sub.Zoulnew. and. -n'applying similar methodology to the Joint Theater
    GM-9L)
    -1n' to goe~'theOf 'the faculty are involved in a
    ficers of and
    eoel Simlat
    esearch projet validate structure input values of 14TH and JTLS.
    isvaresearch. to a unique effort to validate a large scale combat model in
    th the analytic and the military history arenas, This paper diacuoses
    cadet and faculty research in detail to include overall scheme of research.
    ad emerging results~

    Accession For
    NTI GRA

    DTIC TAB
    Unannounced
    atiooat
    i0

    Distribut ion/_
    Availab ility Codes
    Avail and/or
    Dist Special

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE(Whmf Data Rutewrd

    r r% -w
    TABLE OF CONTEXTS

    Forvard ii

    Introduction 1

    Model Description 2

    Combat Model Research at Wat 3


    Sumary 13
    Report of a Study of a Methodology Al
    for Quick Reaction Analysis

    A Detailed Analysis of WM4 Bi


    An Analysis of MTN Combat Subroutine Cl
    M4 Enhancements in the U.S. Army Dl
    War College War Geam
    TM Validation Program El
    An Analysis of Ground Combat F1
    Attrition in WT1 Plus

    Test of the Model Interface Program G1


    in JTLS
    The Ground Attrition Process HI
    of JTLS
    JTLS User Acceptance Test Report I1

    MTM Ground Attrition Process Jl


    Report on the Attrition Rate
    Coefficient in MM1 KI
    Analysis of Movement in N5( Ll
    1TN Historical Modeling: Ml
    Preparation of the Kharkov
    Database
    FORtWARD
    The purpose of this report is to consolidate, preserve, and disseminate

    research performed V Cadets and Faculty of the Department of Engineering,

    United States Military Acadey, an the McClintic Theater Model (MTM) and the

    Joint Theater Level Sim-lation (JTLS). This research was initiated at the

    request of, and partially sponsored by, the Arvq War College. The basic paper

    in this report is a chronology and summary of the research performed. At the

    appendices are individual reports of separate research efforts. These reports

    are internal progress reports which are presented as received from the

    original authors.

    ii

    '7r'I* -
    " I II iV~T
    AT
    TSE USD TM MILITX AUR

    By
    =Te
    Yrmo" M. mettencourt, Jr.
    Assistant Professor, Operations saaic
    Departmsnt of lagineering
    United States Military Academy
    Vest Point, Now lack 1O06-1779

    tic NcIu~ hIeatr MoelIM is a largo scala, onaly-


    combat model. U~mdo3bas two =et uses at tbs United States
    military Acedem*,. aDl'.
    n educational a" & research tool
    for cadeto and faculty. In the operations research curriculum,
    the cadets study =a' application of operatios research tech-
    niques. These techniques are sargated lat. a three day ez-
    teuded laboratory exris In combat modeling. Several cadets
    bave performed Iadividual research projects en the structure and
    Parametric behavior of the combat attrition subroutine In the
    model.* lture cadet research il focus as parametric analysis
    Of other subroutines and am applying similar methodology to the
    Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS) modal. Officers of the
    faculty are involved In a research project to validate the
    structure and input values of HIM and JTI. This research Is a
    unique effort to validate a large scale combat model In both the
    analytic and the military history areas. This paper discussess
    cadet ad faculty research In detail to Include overall schae
    of research and miging results. 1 4 eL

    The decade of the 19SO's has been marked by rapidly developing and geographically di-
    voes crises. In response, the Departments of Defense and the Army perceived a need for
    a large scale combat model which could quickly provide battlefield simulation results to
    assist is the analysis of contingency plan. An additional requirement was rapid cor-
    figuration of model parameters and data bass to facilitate simulation of combat at vary-
    ing levels, against varying opponents, throughout the globe. The majority of euisting
    combat models wre high resolution, that Is requiring detailad data em Individual wsapon
    system parformance and terrain. The MoClistic theater Moel (M) was designed to over-
    coe the detailed data requirmants, and resultant preparation tive,. of emisting combat
    odel.
    HIM is a hybrid analytic/imulaton/srame combat model. As such. certein combat
    functions are depicted by mthematical equations (analytic) such as combat attrition
    which is modeled by diferenitial Lancheser Equations. Other combat functions are re-
    presented by stochas tic simulationt mtilg poaedo-rendom number generation. The op-
    posing decision makers and their staffs are afforded active participation In the conduct
    of the conflict through normal staff actions and decision making. This Interactive
    feature of am renders it a wargame. Neuce the term hybrid combat model.
    am was designed by Mr. Fred McClintIc at the Army War College (AMC) in 1980. The In-
    itisi objectives for development of the model were to enhance the AMC vargaming curricu-
    Iva and to ssist with the AMC Tactical Comad Readiness Program. This Program pro-
    vides a heels for evaluating and modifying comnders' strategy and tactics through an-
    alysis of combat simulation results. Additionally. MM found early use in the Army
    Chief of Staff's Contingency Planning Seminar In November 1960. Sinct that time MI has
    beem utilized by nmerous Departmeut of Defaes analytical agencies and operational com-
    moend Including the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Suropean Command and its subordiate commands
    Inaturope, Eighth U.S. Army in Zorea, and Central Command (the Sapid Deployment Force)
    In the U.S. Interest in UM Is so Intense that a contract is in progress with Jet Pro-
    pulsion Laboratory to Improve on the RM methodology in a new model entitled Joint
    ?heater Level Simulation (311.5).
    isgaested iaseo a~Iity ofth mdaa Its datahese. Sw large mi mre deta"le
    4 datahee. inAN ase imauaed Laterat A model valdIty. Se -,Ie of thi pr to
    sto
    to detail o"sIN, elirt aemate ad ludse. Mad Jim.
    2. Von UIZM
    CMBa iseeriptim to based as Wasw 0).

    WATER COMMANDER'S INTERFACE


    WIN MIS FUNCTIONAL SYScMIS

    the Mme developed aroved the diaom shwIn l Vut 1 -Theater Cemader' up-
    tergeae. ligure I deplets the thoater Comsemder'. (a theater is a large battle area
    Sa sm tbe essaftat of M- r Ie) Iatert am with the anuable funtismal bettlaftld
    sysem. us an eled "s Pise I awe mse Is M. soft mat aired awe lot
    Yet aliataed IV = bat emIn b added Is oweamus snas AM JIl.Cetals lobert
    fe,. i" we pFetatus at am IOU worhes me usialu" aed sumiatis of towd combet
    (5), deoeriba toetail. bIU I eiontsee the Wey feasteree f t medal,
    SM

    ONesinseta of a as pregas (NAU) eaIemiug of 56 subnoutlues aOW foamtetima sad


    (1")
    arepas =sesrelia thbh aflame aieltames Izipst/ roesipt of iatamstiee
    l/aw t/estpat
    as MAede,mad pertelposta; a data bee CUMOAkIA) abieb etaisa
    own&&,, barter, wit mad mioaeaseeu Safemtsadm as sillary data bane bell
    Ing peer (Flom). M M= a. a tap-do"e structural provras as on" Inflare 2.
    TuA 1. or mihI~Sa

    * ame tabsn Citee-oc Saymoti Reute)


    41 Fast bornd"a"e Ppogas
    *~g~m
    Imeegraeb tfleld (Amp.sly Aw". Mr 1w.,l

    * ippliessum to Am Pon . se
    do rI
    * ssfuI Thestar a bmeter
    am te o
    Uswbif (Ip4ewn Sttuvt Prosres)
    *ktert Cal~
    *kittemeasi qeemtii
    * mosl Slalsmite of hsamua Isse
    * omaptmbe vih Oiphies war""
    *tm ktes (mse lads/54m TWO)

    7ftm a. wa so mau

    A aique feature of MK MIN Is the U5EI embroutleam Asab pauiedol fias a -


    rnt war"" statuss. Wei feature allown he players to "iMue altermaeive iecieloeas
    after pVayWbus prosess peat the iseisies pal. Solh altermatIwa analysis flesisgreat
    wulty LAm swalmotifg stzatew sad tasl orato reearehin the midl lU llws e
    the srp to be rediwtiste at the pain Is tiesa o heaeuete" USth f11e.

    Use iniamatim flaws beame M and the players e@own oeamasly. Ti.s to a smil-
    ique eitew de = Smaleissei by doe S hefer Press. am rnr ma@"e-
    we
    even I - "-re is hso usemoma sly ente orders bring dartani, vphae. hrm
    steae plowr ~ lapse bdWiINmetpot. Sorn" th M minutin player Inpuies ame
    Isade from IiiiiS at oppropriates pewst to UK onM outpus are ios. heeded to IWUGC.
    nbs tm esqnein o dismes etim is tawspat to the players te paerIV@s rel
    Us Im termetiem with the imil
    ASMebta SAEIafe tho anqimeft fat a pddlY mefiere 4Mt base. it Otm. all
    &siput mimes uhih we daposiest opan d speite tannin oa le ived is tde vet-
    pm. alternate ebRU filee ella. cap"d transie from me onari* ad iterest to
    msoter. Miss fils aft erseas 0hsNoa estte databas boluding 1r,6s wuilt-
    led runu. Wes ppS querie the players oratcott tes n atribstess of she tercain
    ml usals Ue dttha Ionia, Las prope Saesto Imes Utots
    3. aDMa nMOM uuRAaM AT =NA
    Model
    !al"ltFW

    is sespows to a IPSS ruet frem the Cmmadant, = Am Vat College OA), a Noda
    Vollsdes, ftgr-a of) has bae instituted at =al. me primary I"rpee of the Uf Is
    toeasist the AMC is prodin eombhat model certs with eomfide s tatements' sbout the
    utmsobtained fan combat models, perticularly M ad J!L5. WIP toa join effort
    of d the3pernau of agneriag aed Eatery. raculty Ir arwe currently parsis.g
    the wraeeo is additien to am&"m Instructione dutie, wile the mother is devoting
    full-tm oftorn to the research during Academic Teor 1U4-S. Th purpose of this pro-
    Just is to develop a methodology for the validation of large scals, low esoalation m
    bat models Which cestiai Stochestic om o.This mothedoisgy as than he appliod to
    c annont and proposed models to lacros seanidenca Iis aes. Utilizin the models.

    Is order to evaluato the level of conftidence pertais"u to results derived free a per-
    * tialr combt model, It Is socassmr to perform sensitivity anelysis upos nmeous
    pemotors and at various levels of sWrelete In the combat model of Interest. A der-
    tailed nulysis s ofh affect of buy permteone predetrmined ostput messass of1 of-
    festieness most be supled with an smlysis of the =&de's overall fidelity with past,
    peomet, mi astisipatod tattlefiold conditions.
    Ow~ validtin wresachrs cent rate do hijb resolution omobat models which gem-
    tale detailed modeling of stochastic smbt processes. Low tosolatioe combat models as-
    ~eto stcsotic cmbat processs into stochastic sub-models and/or deterministic
    * models soasm the Imuchester aquatioms. YAI~les of e larte scale, low rosoles
    combet models nreseets a relatively msoeachd area of research med coestitutes a siW
    sitiset eomribltie to the combat modeling comuity.

    A houecmbat model validation hch ftus the rocedual beas of the N",
    spuec,
    wee developed Wy ft. Wilbur Payee of the UAMO Operations 3asearc.h Activity (7). As
    abuse to Figure 3, this approach considers both model structare sod model approach.
    planning asumtions ane aalysed to determine the validity of the Inherent tactical$
    doctuisal, aed eusmiatieeel atateas of the model as sell as the Validity of totel-
    Sol sOW Input peramtar vales. Nede abetraetiea aWe rMvssed to determine the Vat-
    idity of emitting or oggegetieg combat factors or interactions. Model appreimtimn
    ane coesiderod to mlyne the validity of appbeximating a *@what factor or isteractios
    through ""dUna simpliitiae.

    4N
    Cue.s to m&lieUs. efforts n model stuceture are ef forts to validate model op-
    plicatiom. Both, inpt med output vance from the mdel of Interest Ma be compared with
    valus from othe generally accepted ecbt mdule. Om- -a gain aconfidence in the
    mdel by mdeling historical battles. The fidelity of the moel to historical results,
    of Indications ad 1by the mn did got replicate history, provides Mulse ineigts.
    Although acual combat mmnt be amoeunted to validate a model based an current doctrie
    ad Nampa system, tceku&UleW so Innlaer scored field cer"ciso med Instrumental
    training Ues, e.crcj' aerF crtinges cmbt, result&whiCcgs"l be useful in alli-
    dating modls.
    2Toagsot the validation effort, cnsideratioe should be givesi to the Intended still-
    set.. of the comat nodel. to the Am operatins research commity, combat modls
    anc used fow amb divorce functions as wes cyst.. analysis, for.. development, train-
    Ing aid develupmnt, eetc analysis, Smividmel training in schools, operational salt
    training. and analysisadofperational plane. rhe Perrone -Of mims a cochet model Is
    seeuc ofhee appliecions is dif ferent. Several factor, of the validation proceo
    snch a input requiremets, ane times dota preparation time, nodal resolution, output
    foesti ad zeselotiem, and fidelity of output to the reel wrld, are Influenced bW the
    Stendsi voce o the modl. Cae mdel my be Vaud for we as an Individual training
    INcl, yet tetally unsuited for am -i weepon systems analysis.

    A unique aepect of Wi Is the participation of the Departmet of hiotory. This or-


    misetia., poseses epertise an military history and historical worgeming. A faculty
    group has developed MA dacabses to allow varganing of World War nI %attles. Their
    min purpose Ise to address the fidelity of MN with historical results. They arc Loves-
    ats" such questions aca usefuml ources of historical data for wse In Ck. cathodo-
    logies used to convert terrain and unit data late nMe data base, validity of coshat
    peranters within ON, med critical factors which semus WN set to replicate history. A
    seoed objective in to assess the msefulness of a comuter Versions such as WN, asa
    tool for obtaining historical insight*scuch ast the combat factors that were most cr1:-
    ical, the ef fects of changing battlc events or factors, end nodal differentiation bet-
    goe resuolts *I a so"d and a poor battle puas and ensecutio.
    the bistoricsel anlysis will assist the qmuattative anlysis 'by Identifying ahort-
    fall. s the M attlefield eevisoeet or In the dapictiam of primary combat fume-
    cism. This analysis wILL Investigate quetioneseemucs: prism combat funcis mc
    modeled Within M., primary Combat functicee Within WN which appear to be mrsaUsti-
    clly asiclad seeks: results from UN which appear to be unrealistic, end the approp-
    Vis levelsof meIts that lxmdoes effetively.
    Anoher arma ad kch"s will be to erwa tepossible pidevogcal appliatons t
    MN within the Imptent of Victory. Wei analysis will addroses mditieso re-
    quired to I115?1, the date be bouding presrsm, to failtate Its use Is historical
    analysis, mifications required to UN to facilitate Its ws In historical ealyas,
    and additioaal output media that would facilitate historical analysis.

    Cedet Usarch
    1combat Subroutine Structure
    There have besa fewr cede: Individual research projects conducted as M and wemas
    JIl. Uspurpoe of the first research, project ma to examie the cobt subroutine of
    WN by fesusing opec we are"c (4). The fire: are a hed descriptive aspect of the
    subrsetise. raft Included the development of the deedritics for the subroutine. thW
    seoed ams of attentiom was the analysis of the subroutine through regressise, techni-
    que.. Tois anlysis served s a founation end besic fraework for future analysis i.
    the KV.

    mem5

    A 10..
    001 0 a- . -01-

    MM
    mum

    ~ ~~ ~~ fo~
    A~~tpI mao
    h nlss ftecma uruiemeteceto fteu
    chart mmuruie(~u
    ) U etefrtfo catdvlpdfrayo
    ~ ~ ~ emooesmoteeue
    the~~~ nM h la hr rvddII aeso e
    fatoshep
    eonm h rslt o omt oIW~d:th EW lvl f h ml
    la~~ bte sobt ntI tle nammdo otmntdbx hte ntI

    out ~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~4
    ofptoonpoutteteri hc ntocpes n h ietesi e
    been~~s Intatlcain
    flo ochrtig th sbrotin rasedso Iprantqetoscnenn h a&
    maters
    ar ~ ~we~ ~ ~ whc ~ ~~~m nodrt eov
    -ntesbotn obt ntwl ne
    thurotn obo wt nmmto pit wihrelc h-ui'ssrn-h h
    ~ ~ ~~ yaCUTfco
    points~~~~ ar thn-l~Le hchI eedn pntetetran

    as~ ~ ~ ao crtclao
    ftr eerh
    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ eerhm
    Theaseto*h ~seon~ ~ 44 h nlsi ftecm uruieotus
    Ths o orio te tuy mlodIstw acoplshens.Fist adaa4145cio
    methodology esalse a *414
    ee od a.
    nfrhraalss h obdl
    Inclde* heofaddiiona suboutime wich aptr
    teatis aapitsfrt.fc
    tosbintdid ne h at a wr eertd amtodfraalssusn h
    Statistical
    Pekg ~ fo th ~ ~oilSine .S)w etbihd hsicue h
    ~
    writing Mpormado-m
    ofa~ ~ m inta Sotus

    Sats-e
    Prora

    An t tepga' the flu u cture ica routoi tansi rtion the f ltOfwh
    (2) It makes lower level decisions based on a prescribed set of
    rules. For example, it may detemine when small units withdraw
    from battle due to a predetermined cumulative loss threshold.
    Or, it may determine when and how two small unit opposing forces
    become engaged, based on prescribed decision rules. The quality of
    a model Is sensitive to the automated decisions and in so far as
    possible a model should keep these to a minimum.

    3. Potential Planning and Studies Methodology Using War Gaming.


    a. Studies and Plans.
    (1) This type of effort is characterized by J-5 activittes where
    analytical effort Is directed toward potential, but not necessarily
    evolving, problem areas. Analytic teams would consist of a proponent
    team (for example from the J-S staff to include support from other
    agencies as appropriate), adversary team (analysts from an agency
    such as the DIA) and a control team (SAGA analysts). In addition,
    if the effort is to culminate in an operations plan it would be
    appropriate for staff representation from J-3 to be on the proponent
    team.

    (2) It appears that for an effort such as this it is appropriate


    that the study/planning process incorporate two war game models:
    one of high fidelity and very fined gained to provide verification
    of study results, and a coarse grained parametric model through which
    sensitivity and contingency analyses can be made. Analysis support-
    ing a plan or study could reasonably follow a sequence (as summarized
    in figure 1).

    (a) kquire validated data regarding the aspects of warfare in


    the region to be studied. This can be accomplished by research-
    ing actual data if there has been recent activity or it can be
    gained through simulation with the fine grained model, e.g., a
    war game with the Total Forces Capability Analysis procedure.
    (b) Adjust the parameters of the parametric wargame model so
    that wargaming results between the validated data and this
    model are in agreement. Here one is talking about a model (the
    coarse grained paramentric model) in which a single variable
    (parammnter synthesizes a number of descrete activities on the
    battle field). These surrogate variables are then adjusted so
    that events in the parametric model yield results that agree
    with the validated data. One should not be fooled into believ-
    ing that "tuning" the model is a simple issue. It will take a
    significant effort to even define what is meant by agreement!

    (c) Wargaming is begun in earnest using the coarse grained


    model to automatel he play. Because the Coarse grained model
    allows for rapid play, many alternative paths can be played,
    i.e., when reasonable alternatives exist for an opponent.
    For example, one force would have as alternatives a surprise
    attack or a deliberate attack. Each may be gamed to assess the
    longer termn implicatiQns. As one might observe, the number of

    Enclosure A

    A6
    2. war Gming as a Planning Tool.
    a. A review of the study and planning processes within the JCS shows
    that, in general, they are not structured to account for a responsive
    enemy, e.g., an enemy who alters his situation based on US initiatives.
    There is no insurance that a study or plan has systematically examined
    the field of reactions an adversary might take given a shift in allied
    posture. Perhaps more important, there appears to be no formal
    structure to insure the examination of potential enemy actions and
    allied counteractions over time. In 1978, the Defense Science Board
    formally recognized this as a problem in all strategi, analysis and
    suggested wargaming as the most favorable method for overcoming the
    problem. All evidence indicates this is true for all analysis.
    b. war Gaming and the Joint Chiefs of Staff:
    (1) A war game, as used in this context, Is a structured procedure
    modeling various aspects of warfare between two or more antagonist
    forces. The actions of each force is directed by a group of
    analysts who are governed by a prescribed set of procedures. When
    battle is joined, the outcome is determined by a prescribed set of
    rules. The quality of a game is determined by how faithfully
    It represents the various aspects of warfare.

    (2) In the JCS planning setting, a quality game would allow examina-
    tion of a full spectrum of options available to opposing forces,
    thus pmoviding a better assessment of needed resources to insure
    successful plan execution. This includes a full assessment of
    reserve and contingency force requirements, a more complete set of
    contingency plans, and a better definition of the essential
    elements of intelligence, I.e., those activities that would prestage
    a change in an enemy's operation.
    (3) Should a gaming procedure be adopted for JCS planning and study
    efforts, one would expect war games to be established for each
    plan/study. Two gaming setups would be desirable; one which would
    be pursued by opposing analytic team, for the purpose of assisting
    the development of contingency plans; the other would maintain the
    current situation so that should immediate analysis be required (as
    in a crises situation) operations personnel could use gaming
    procedures to explore the impacts of immediately available options.

    c. Atomation must be introduced to any such gamihg procedure; otherwise


    for a wargame reflective of any reasonable fidelity, the necessary
    resources would be prohibitive. Automation serves two key functions:
    (1) It serves as a secretary/bookeeper, providing a record of all
    activities In the game. If carefully designed, it also provides
    a record of decisions made by the analyst. In addition, automating
    the wargame allows routine events to occur such as convoy movement
    and fuel and ammunition consumption to be accomplished without
    attention.

    Enclosure A

    A5
    ENCLOSURE A

    1. liackground.

    a. The tim urgent nature of a number of the planning and study issues
    faced by the Joint Staff make it imperative that a quality, rapid
    raWsnSe analytic capability exist. General dissatisfaction in this
    regard has been expressed by the Chairman and other senior mmbers of
    his Staff. Inresponse, the Studies, Analysis, and Gming Agency
    (SAGA) srveyed available analytic methods and concluded that the
    cClintic Theater Model (ITH) offered the greatest promise. Two
    officers from the US Military Academy, Major John Edwards and Captain
    Robert Does ware assigned to SAGA for 30 days to assist in the
    evaluation of KH. Captain Does examined the structure of the model
    and provided an assesemnt of its potential to model conflict; his
    report is forwarded under separate cover. Major Edwards examined how
    the WH might be employed by the Joint Staff and the result of that
    effort is herein reported. His specific tasking is found at Annex 1.
    b. Major Eiwrds- effort included:
    (1)A review of the background literature cited In the bibliography.
    This provided a general understanding of the organization and division
    of responsibilities of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, understanding of
    MIT, and an insight of War Going as a tool to support studies and
    plans.
    (2) A visit with Mr. ed McClintic, the author of IM, to gain his
    perspective on the mel.
    (3) Interviews and liIted analytic support for action officers from
    SAGA ad the J-6 staff.
    - Provided analytic effort to LTC Lynch In support of the Force
    Mix Study.
    - Reviewed OPLAN 1003-81.
    - Discussed the Total Fore Capability Analysis effort with-LTC
    Shtmol.

    ° Contacted other individuals to include personnel from the


    J-6 - Col boory, CAl Eggers, LTC Linehard; and personnel from,
    SAGA - Captain O'Neill, Colonel d'Alelio, LTC Timberlake. LC1M
    Soon, Major Weber, and Major Markwardt.
    (4) Attendance at briefings, to include the JCS Action Officer
    orientation and a presentation by Mr. Girshwin, OASO, describing an
    effort to implemnt war Gming for Strategic Analysis.

    AM
    c. The attractiveness of the 1TN as a tool for quick dependable
    analysis is that it Is a gaming process rather than model. The
    wo-man month effort of Major Edwards and Captain Does has concluded
    that the M nas excellent potential for the quick analysis role.
    Furthermore, it appears well suited as an integral part of a general
    study methoology. While a more complete discussion of the model
    structure is found in Captain Dee's report, it is appropriate here to
    discuss MTN's flexibility. It's modular structure is Ideal for
    developing families of subroutines that will allow analysis over a
    full-spectrum of detail, that is, the model can be easily taylored to
    study requl rements.
    3. Conclusions.
    a. Implementing a formal war gaming structure to the planning process
    will insure better quality analysis In that it will examine the impact
    of a responsive enemy.
    b. In the above context, HMT is an excellent prospect for a rapid
    response method of analysis.
    4. Recinendations.
    That necessary resources be allocated for the timely development
    of the McClintic Theater Model:
    (1) Dedlcted Main Frame Computer Resources.
    (Z) Substantial Comnd Control Technical Center personnel effort
    to implment and support model developmdnt.
    (3) Dedicated Technical Services Division analysts to supervise
    model implmntation.

    " 'JOHN R. E[DARDS


    MJ, AD

    A3
    - ** I
    melt T~lj
    JON MIEFS OF STAFF

    MEMORADUM FOR THE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAP ADVISOR, SAGA

    Subject: Report of Study of a Methodology for Quick Reaction


    Analysis

    1. Background.
    a. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, his military assistant,
    and the J-5 have expressed a desire for the Studies, Analysis, and
    Gaming Agency to develop methods for conducting quality analysis in
    time urgent situations. In response, the Technical Support Division
    has conducted a search of existing methodologies and has determined
    that the McClintic Theater Model (MTM) offers favorable promise.

    b. Major Edwards and Captain Dees, United States Military Academy,


    each were assigned 30 days of temporary duty to SAGA to support the
    evaluation of the ITN. Captain Dees was to examine the structure of
    the model and Major Edwards was to determine how the model might be
    employed within the Joint Staff. The specific tasking for Major
    Edwards Is found at Annex T to Enclosure.

    2. Discussion.
    a. To assess potential roles for the .Th,
    Major Edwards reviewed the
    joint planning/study process and matters relating to it. The findings
    of this effort collaborate a concern voiced by the Defense Science
    Board in 1978: That there appears to be no specific method to insure a
    responsive enemy is considered in analysis supporting strategic
    planning. That is to say, there are no identifiable procedures to
    insure plans and studies consider a full spectrm of possible responses
    to US Initiatives. There is no apparent reason that this is not also
    an issue with analysis supporting most strategic studies. In consonance
    with the Defense Science Board concern, Major Edwards pursued his
    study in the broader context of determining a study methodology that
    has the potential to represent this aspect of analysis.

    b. With enunciating its findings in 1978, the Defense Science Board


    suggested that employing a War Gaing Methodology was the most promising
    way to ovI the problem. The concept of using war games to
    develop plans has historical precedence; the Germans have employed
    this technique from the time of the Prussian Empire. The success
    enjoyed by SAGA's Total Force Capability Analysis, a finely detailed
    War Gaming procedure, further supports the option to employ a formal
    War Gaing Structure to all planning. A candidate wargaming proposal
    is found in the attached report (Enclosure A).

    A2
    OSTA 87-81
    Nh 28 September 1981

    IEM3RMSD1 FOR: Se Distribution


    Subject: I'cClntlc Theater Model (Mh)

    1. During the past sumer, two m0 emr of the faculty of the United
    States Muitary Acadomy, Major John Edwards of the Department of
    Mathematics and Captain Robert Dees of the Department of Engineering,
    served a 30 day internship with the Studies, Analysis, and Gaming Agency
    of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (OJCS).
    2. Their primnary assignment was to Investigate the capabilities of the
    MClintic Theater Model (Mm), developed at the Army War College, to
    provide the OJCS with a viable rapid response warganing tool for use in
    developing and analyzing plans, contingency operations, and exercises.
    3. Major Edwards focused on developing a process for the OJCS to use a
    rapid response wargaming tool. Captain Wees conducted a comprehensive
    evaluation of the structure, methodology, and algorithms of Mh.
    4. The reports that present the results of Major Edwards' and Captain
    Wes' efforts are enclosed. It is interesting to note that both Majoar
    Edwards and Captain Does arrived at the saw conclusion that the Mh is
    an excellent prospect foib a rapid response wargaming tool for the OJCS.

    & 60' LEE JR.


    Scientific and Technical Advisor
    Studies, Analysis, and Gaming Agency

    Chief, SAGA
    Director, Joint Staff, UJCS
    Director for Operations, OuCS
    Director for Plans and Policy, OJCS
    Director for Coimnd,, Control, and Coummunications, OJCS
    Army war College

    Al
    On"".. DOS*
    WAr 0sos, Cllop. cort pj(a". Ur.te

    AM 9hU
    M.a*'LWL1 W POP* -OUP -aLMG

    10. U.S. amq Wa" coilng. 1. Vol u l (cmtuoflor' a mal).


    * U.S. UM vwa cosillem Q*~ Rge..

    14
    Us siatrities restie man, theref ore, ="iled. As Ga be asm is risers 9, the
    off*"at o M asttIMOe retamo We esefOMMd with the effets Of the tiaLog aocbaa-
    iMa in the we models a see w 2 actrltiee of fused. of the combat ratio.
    Tw" Stetiss a 6 buer tin mermsaet for UrIgede lovel cmaet and 12 bear Incements
    for Xvioem level. Us etite. mae recive setet, imiapet of time £aost
    (41). WA, bovar, atliass a twe bowr tie Sacraent; for a11 levels ot cembat (Ni).
    there so, therefore, a empeudLsg affect of etrits thee sod"ieg (US) or 12 (Ii)
    heawe of aombat In a hear lstromae. As a remilt of the Iateractim betwees nheomaet
    ettitim notce ad the slmletie M inceases, Wx cm closely approximate, er on-
    ""aedthe attvitiftm ats of IMM.

    sarete caner a o , Laselty researchex alsepeie to Au~. Zacia efforts


    etre ma user eyalaaties ad the =ae derlag eight days of lateasive wargmtag at
    ths =. . prmtely 3D people we Involved Is this efft. almatie ou ed en a
    me of 106ueomit *leot med o the Node. the ewalvatiee provided ammeove esmuasta
    ft emewied cheese a" desired laprwmats for the mdel. Critical areas Idetift"a
    vesel lromedm of the database building program, iqirveeac of the "Wmasted teast-
    tel tim Vatio, better belemein ef comat systes mieliag reolatioe, ewelatiem of
    the lat dae, md enhanemsent of ram"vel atlees modelieg. 2he evalwatore =tre very
    Imparessed with JVI peteetiel as a thater moal adnd eemmde cetimed apbesis se
    rapd develapmsa me upe.

    Voters research will lavelve aplications of the valIdatlee motbedology derived eM


    * te other madelSa"m further researh em In Itself.* lItIaly, JIl mest be transported
    to the VIIA*yet= at MR., a proes* which to almeet complete. 2Me lepertmet of fts-
    tory will thee be able te evelse the Sharks, md Arfemme battlee em this mae. the
    sem phase of resea Will proheably castor em the hetoeogeeous Iemhator attriion
    eeO I eases Is JWl. InAItial, semativity mswe,I ill daetme the statIstical
    N significane a" lserf-reatleenhi of the 06eelfliate. tema ether cmet adlo will
    be Investigated to espers their lsae or output etitiee rates with these Is the JILl
    detabse. Attrition votes ems"d also be derived free historical data end experimental

    I
    data such awhat prte at Mbe Wtiesi ftalsis Coser, part Zvwia, Csl~eradre. A

    level of Itsma er met"""le modeling. Foslt Iech aft els


    4" emlras
    e ft pses-
    Melty of ame"n aitI ote mads a"c a WImd me avlale level amdelasident
    aU MUam the mdels cc ase Arm awed Ingsw e Iregres.

    ibis paermehsemevsdie spabilities sod Structure of 014 met.abv research


    effsrts bealm deveted the Mmld Its successor, nu~. the Model vaud.. Pregrga hes
    * iati selived Wat's csmltst to cembat modeling research. With the itrest mld
    remoroes new to psitie, mve an* be justifiably optimistic as to the contribution MIP
    will cetifte to mks to the combat made hag comuiy.

    * S. un
    ill hd ~**~ g ~ altiem
    !A1IL __t Soustie.
    amneu be ropset. Vest olts , AIM 39 paes.

    2.CmrWAIn 16, U!O lot S1 1nterfee fxran Is the Joist theater Jj"I
    3. Ses, ftboft F., CI, -A Detailed Anlysis of the He~intle theatre Hsdt&,-
    uniates A Combat. borsis

    4. Netner, MatD0: t, AS I ef~ Combt labretie. umpubished report,


    Vest Pist, UR 1963, Zppw.

    s. Nore, Joha $. Ulf.* U, Ma_ rcss _uaif Jit2gtr1"

    60 wto
    oh I U.,weIk awiseio Proess of flL*-NoisUec -Ste
    Moe uspu blbd reports Fes, mTo I , 11POWe.
    7. poyne, Wilbor, o., Owai4ty Ma I orKISM r K~tr
    UNo"lisA, uintary upereue ALOYA06ty.TI I

    13
    - veIto" research I * fthe usvmt me ao tfmlty banagessmnted -n bewdiag
    mlt me: towelst databasae w th §wUWa U battles. at Ibzhev ad the hedgs...
    The rpmvate. bee is wtose room"&eIn late leai Wepens and mnly.
    battles. Is lagdd combat reporte s hOnamite Involved. 21w requieent for of the
    searale
    do&a omIt~slaged agodqu a punted ame repreestdo lAOs terrafn features.o
    The tenia esi gois databose bar ban meids and Seua". Wa aes .1 the hUs-
    teeead a II aft mni I ofees. a" lt"I lMt il tsanb siet Wil soft
    eldsais Meteriest resumig us OR-

    Malt"I spenme 0f laiea g rCses eM moteLled a detailed analysis of doe


    &gteetu opew ad Ieddmd assumtions of doe ae" (3). TIs Reserc focused
    Mubwb MtepfaWM the imetUee mirsetlas and *hter these gustle.. or
    misled sin g rdibla mmiytia todml. The Oscm easilaiwd la a inmmrY of
    19 .Sd~flcalM gbu man eunleste sme Ow th destl" od tesmLaga. The asselor-
    alv. of Whe lowstI~ativs ofiest W&dM Idhe M~e 10 ansie
    001te 00 0614b Pomaceous
    considerable potential as a blab-lefsl jlASMIag esi deslalad.
    nos *"bad ath
    .moe CW esutuh own tesAIMa a Waer .es a68se
    0 82
    v iel ttlad vacsloel opeam estism A "e (IISW). TAUn selyal. determined that
    I* me the It osad gsdlfleatlang to M hod bae addressed by Z~WM. Five ami-
    * ri..a emoacmut.o Moe Recommended. As Istsemetias atoraadamw beteM= the
    combat asriutif,astie es do i e Inceases:e of tho aslatla. woo desired Thet
    the omeses am"u ICoadets that the etteltles, rate of a @ e austy supeule fetus
    tainst
    assumbesed fats. Was set mftfgitatly high.

    2 MTM -AWCVG

    IAI
    a II

    411

    12
    ash amiss combat 18oio is mltiplied by mdifying factoms as di065a06 above te wet-
    d... the frendly and .eW point values. Them ssvae wie sected into the ae-
    luw
    stities elastis to Asor"= the less et ferem sas w bowt peele. After ALI of the
    miss, low"s hae bass calculated, thsy wze sobteated from the miste, stumtb rat-
    *Ig. -TM combat 'sbrestie educes doe percset rating ad the molt steoethk rating
    subml. Aoher sestus depletes doe appropriate mit of expanded sopplise.
    Use isesnh ams"dott do M memb erlotlau peefes MWUtl ad It bee bae
    aem~d , So s u lves Eno u fact do Itou
    w s the attritiun mobweutine sm frm
    plately Spoors doe offsts of mshew r daylogbt onditdions an Veucombat.
    Amon theln~
    sd ask of no type of dumaotatlas aveilabla at
    Reilw
    VMdotsmsew As wlwa s mst seots turms alus, tim s poseition
    mifiers ad the .03 atteltim rate coefficent we detemiedd. Tus M omat sub-
    routine doess bsre provide a Workable a sm tosimlat 8e d cmbt attrition.
    Further researk ems be peefesmiIs wesi as8mlthe~ doi mas t aNo.-
    lae the effets at dayligbit, daeue ad msei amcht swe the appropriate 'salues
    to emn as wit stranthe ad modifying coeficiens. The M modl culd thus be modi
    fitd asto wd a 'sab easee mste simlation of Fenmd combat attrition.

    being the mae Of LW6. sods:i M;Sueae forms 0*86&W as ISE as that NOdW eaRn-
    timuad develepment. Own cdit designed a Beow Acceptance %at fee tho Model Interface
    Program OUP). ThA proe interactively controla the msem teaUsl, 'seifies mi
    stemu Input and output date, ani translates this date as ami fre.e CoatSweas
    h Acceptance loet was Masuraed ad provided valuable Insights as the
    Ups.

    A semed cadet reserc project centered Os thu pround combat attriton peacess of
    JUJ (5). It o 'seifiled that JYLS vesetesesguse Lashestee attrition. In this
    type of atteitias modeliag. esmbat systems ettest ether cosbt system at a rats aped-
    fito d to' systems Involved rather this an oveall rate for a wit comprised at
    several different syston. It measo 'seifiled that the distribution of cumbat systems
    and their cmat pew. throughout a pmn hoxaN mo sdeled. This mesm that Combat out-
    on arn dependent es thu oriettion of ths attacher sod duftedu relative as each
    other. 42 attack SM a lightij dafSEWu Gid Of a b=s U each Me likely to Goummed
    thiem e a huewly dean"e aids. 1inallye It mone f LedIthu; aittu euht y
    raw mitered pealties fur Rea ft lUfwAs end could ust attest sober systems %bum
    out of amitis.
    Omae thume 'sdslls" factors had baeersifled, se'seal mdel Imprewsts, tain"
    Ipee mthemtial 'shels. Uwee muested. theme Improvemnts sadud own goae-
    ta" ame fine mdes, a piusia fur vietim embs systeom Who suit. team fel endme
    Mlft afisimuiss. ad Sis dga I d attfitias rates. Modeling the degradations of
    east effectivenessdus as preleega combat is particularly important.

    There see currestly three cadet reseaeh projects in progress. The first Is an effort
    to orgaize, code, and Input the data available on the Bettle of Therlitt. This resarch
    is dieeso Is t"e next paragraph. A mwood sggest offor: is a detailed *namination
    of pSd meest elgert Is V. This week Us exploring hew mli is ar w*&.d at
    ot wage, Mheir~ percentae batisue, or due'S i"flumne, mement in the model.
    M mement rates will be comared with those Is ether models. Ihe final cuerest of-
    fert Involves developing a mothoislsgy as aggregate output ettritIes rates frern loes
    level models lute input attrition rates for mn. Model runs hae bee Pthered from eve
    loopte lievRael ade" fee this off ort.

    IDI
    *EFFECT OF MINEFIELD ON COAT

    U9

    0, .6iA" I;JA1 ;

    Wm IN-00
    wb W Wt

    FU A&p "m

    U9It Wwabrhv oefc btovre h obtpoe.N feti


    sutoAS e I sm ob is Iahoe of th swI it soe Ue Ua
    be all
    Is die~
    wd"

    fAs orurnsod"thr
    1.
    an585 33.55US
    i5b8Wr no gite U.S"
    duo "r
    (SIM)~ ort- ~ ssnals a i a
    -ols fetv ei si x
    ftusht som~t~em
    to iti mesebet
    xetdtserua=o W er""a

    MS 10B3J0 clA
    () - no effects of mob psoore eow
    Moeftio seogmoe do" es
    sc howo Combat power.
    3mty detm =omits in a s0 Parmas Ineros is oubt ps
    * Deliberate Msono Inebeose pinas by 200 Parmae.

    EFFECT OF ENGAEMENT TYE ON COIT

    an

    *~ ~ ~as u~ ams aM
    c to a~s

    9" o tee madbu danewa its we modified As mei mmr Ciaur. 6). &W
    mit thot sooogltoly esm~hts Its supply of inmoitIawl"q eoat is Smoediaboly de.
    ttopd. IM6 OSOMe WOW. U both mite MRS Goc0 o in tftm at do ea tim. do wit
    t2"t smoutm of fuel o ombac is mseosod a so paenot r"tedoto is~ eacPOWs.
    UII*Od acttitio Is @nomaed Indepedently and osowremcly olth sohe scttiie.
    *'u sLa ooffqiind by a opoaste msesonta". Wino do see affoe no a- smbo at-
    * t~uilb Sonts. no ottria t gow .. mmtielmo is a dditin to oba atcftult.
    gu, hen - from a nt ike powiat vim. Doins trappod is a odmelield miud
    MMe a swit more vulnerable to acttitio iU it Mnos ggstIony shil the masfield
    umml dOP w duotrey oem of tho formos It thy atempted to masaes: to nedo their
    wumarbtlItY to esOs fire (118ev 7). bits &ft met Affected by Musical or Nuclear
    "OtcmcaiucIOG beyssi the effects Of the Initial raOy-of blest. "wh users' anal pro-
    *ct -ht uiwil lose On Paenot of Its power every hour that it is in a costal-
    mated hex. U"i dos an gar is acta pla.

    ankbox Is assigned a ssv vmvoreag th type of terrain predominate Vitb, the


    he.. MWe inched for msmi ss a vois to & terrain type Is met e6eaoly expled
    bmvw. one reotglative corrains ush an loeotd aroo ad Orbs. moe ane osigaod
    higher Vales Ose reetrietIve Sarnia sulk as spin woss. negatie tomisl Vale".
    A~~a hoc pr. Vales hece.. sodatee diuble emmac Power ubilaValues of three. or
    mretiple It (Fir" ). As mntiod before, the Von doe smet discriminate between
    unoit types it anoesifg terrais modifiers. in ality, different types of units are af-
    feast" dillferently by Vries" terrama types. In on, Urbsn terram triples the esbat

    *~A
    I Power ot amyp,s

    vol. mit typs


    famit. This oy he P"m for s Infantry wit, bet few wans wold
    owmld her mite to he at so adontp Inmetricted tons MWd cities. Is reel 0o.
    ~betscmbers mmii try to wpos
    I
    ro" bet is tho pmn it woud he edwentoess
    wle
    for waso to mooe Inoa os aeas to via the *&"stae Of the 3.0 Multiolier. The
    trimmodifiers shoud be pot late. mci t"Adt ISdM=* the multiplier by both tar-
    (7)~ttte assw"se ose sways"d to dstermice the affect or ea "mpot Parameter an ae at-
    rAiswMmti rho aot& from mob bottle sum mw moed to edef isths preditiomn.
    2Mheof fects *f smb parameter we awIsived in thsaesiom
    M al"S with tu effoot. of
    44714jot. defhamoomoad vetboth bait Stemith dirootly efete dhoattIasL Irm
    through tho ver"s Poits. his, stat Ammltliaud by doe milfyta mmes ad the
    Otebogus" psrmters. Iocobt lowmeme a mit wm ef loed by a deeres. is thi
    stgeth. Tik" Is smotly as prediced I& dhoper -
    aendUer muscle. "muonly offset
    01ohs bwit Inpeprometr io to date=&"m he metdam dt we foesible for a Poas-
    UeeVest to pereim ow air mumiok dems ar "ndrect fit". It w moeffect o
    grmWd cast. thiS Am40 prodited so ho e mod doe wer now""..
    Mther do aetmhia o defeamiag mit is still aft"n "Nd Ito dstintis or ho,
    aimed, eruisod abea It mob"r moma: has a eigmfriem offs. Doebl teet moult. d
    softesmalysi ImIltoe st a soving volt adur a 60 paenot reauctioa omaet vin
    fe tho firot foss hours of osoa~t. IMS old he takes to ruesmom doe pote Uise-
    pamor that a "it Uhl"am deploy Into a properd stucok fatemgnu mmli aw a
    * mit that rmm iate the on while stiLl Is a mao el om tCp of foreasios. Powr
    * hours dom", hovr, smsr to he as msesivo ties pored to possume a am"in ad:. A
    wAd shoul he able to reo~e frow the Initial shook of abot mad dopley Into m at-
    * task Or imfoeso fosustm %ithinw bueen. Thu pm dtemipotee the atteohiag sid e
    the @I"s with dosortest svnre. tie s pvseItIfs Auift "oA We ho ued. This
    S dom sot bmv so sther effoct ft attritua (FiPre 5).

    16.

    =55SOfFNUS V.
    IMS-iO

    an a

    mo*m 0. tisi-oiiels smaimntb os

    Deliberate deeo 0 In Psition prester tham 72 husor at pm $tart.

    be"ts sgsmet -Ptie in Psition to"e tb I hour.

    Imoty dat"" 0 ties is pesilee bounce I aed 2 ous

    961iherato Antmam InLposition Pester thm 3 bust or at gm start.


    data baes vas CeWLSe" to be compatible with ve data baeins at Other HUinstallatis.
    Thin revsle 1e0uired eltostIne t Of09ry *@Esed that Included & terrain hez d11g-
    tie.

    lev"Ifta the databae. required revision of the MIST data*.4ee WeINd pregram to a-
    set
    as he am toera hen notatiom. 3Xerlee had shin that raw1 vas me dewr friem*-
    * ly, nd It we therefoe "eVIsed to display laps forat error statement.and to allow
    Corrections to Imputs. the lateractive qustions to doSr were seeMs omsplete
    ned eelf-explaaatery.

    ffts guir a" Iowrt cadet researth projects ftM1"asenitivity aalysIs of


    *h aiet" me critical inpt veriablas oma a"" e tls.TeM -Icma
    suMentin sme a ""ale bosgsomeeu 9encheecer ftmsen dependent an the umified
    eareegehe of the attacher mod dafemier to praises attatis. the s"a at the aodat pre-
    ecsWstoadterM be. ouch, of the be"u "estners modified the "trenehw so ah
    Oemstat befoare the attrition a ealcelatod am Newslg the resultant fae levels a
    a fatscm of tie.
    the off""t of sach of the Impt paraeters Ua determined by bet wwrftoa am"$
    a"le d analysIs of the ""ambs breuna room""p c"da. the abject a choe Mnaly-
    "a so to deter"m loether the parseter affected Sombat a predicted by the sorce
    coairm pase om mammas apar eximentle =art invothed 08p I nh rea there
    batles aMIntanesusly IN ach som Cos. louw battles rota uwed "a ass tim. A Seviat
    Ta Divlis attack"d a Uset Sauon Ameri Kvisifa In each bette. lth rs-blu
    cede ad thaed toemmes a eI mIated mpertis amsie amp. dIctia trur aherer
    (Soviet) mle could mve Into a baa adjacent to the blue (Veat Vernon) male ad combat
    vpusd begn. All of the input parameters rots held constant accept the pere der
    Investigation. the exporinental output Wa the attrition saprleaced by each malt.
    * This me then analyzed to datoraine how each Input perntar affected combat.
    Initially It mu Pimam" to esuduct mul~tip n of each experiment to detoruIn the
    statistical Vrtlanse of the results. luxs praye eesosay when all "M mf the Sl-

    2) t&Il met@ of exprnta mre mvattly the coe, independent of gin tine Stats"a tineI
    or Van @sed for e set of Input parameters. A subsequent amlyals of the satirn
    combst subroutine revealed that there cre met my stochastic elemnts Involved Is the
    omlt actrittas peace"a. All comat etroaemdii Newto Uwe determined directly by the
    values of the Imput malues. All r=ads. Combat attrition Is a result of wncietim of doe
    Input paramete 1W the player or by ether oubeties.me. m& s mtiplo Crem of amo
    experumnat oesezy. daly on nm rote -s&0 am ea operiaat to Asers tha the
    results roa rget.
    the ~ear: cede for the combat subroune ow em edsto predict the effects af each
    Inpu Parametar aod to explain say mesual revults. after web ceful somntea, the
    attrtion preesse became very clear. It ma then pselbl ft fallo te attritias pro
    case for mny empnmet. the attrition pIe fsesin s Scantly as p m is doth

    It mes Ncessary to understand bow the hMM attrition process Suer to understand bow
    the input psaentere afftect combat. All ualts are asaigned a combat power veiue in the
    database. During combat this power In sultiplied by values assigned to each Input par&-
    moter. The attrition rats La generated using a simple homogeneose lancbester-type dif-
    ference equation, This equation Lot

    I&"s m(.-Clrleadly flato-.O3 Mone Palate) )0140


    2~re Prissily points

    Paive w Vat Iareeth * VadIfyin latate


    Lee w tractional decrese Is Valt Strength.
    Usiifyiug Vectors - the onative effet of the
    moout paamters COMl.).
    FIGURE I
    POTENTIAL WARGAMING METHODOLOGY

    START
    4
    GATHER VALIDATED DATA

    I TUNE COARSE
    Ii I
    GRAINED MODEL

    WAR GAME WITH


    COARSE GRAINED
    I MODEL

    UNEXPECTED
    OR CONTINUE
    CONTROVERS IAL-- NO--b WARGAME
    RESULTS

    * YES
    I~ INEPRET
    RESULTS
    41 S & APPLY
    EMPLOY FINE
    * ,MODEL GRAINED STOP

    RESULTS NO -
    VARY

    YES
    EMPLOY FINE.
    GRAINED RESULTS
    AS VALIDATED
    DATA

    A7

    Lb iD
    branches that could be considered (a branch in the game is any
    point at which more than one reasonable course of action can be
    taken) over a long period would be prohibitive. Thus, in the
    near term of a game nearly all reasonable paths should be
    explored, but in the more distant time probably only the most
    likely courses of action should be considered.

    (d) As new or questionable results are obtained in the wargame


    the cirumstances leading to these results would be examined in
    the large fine grained model to verify the questioned results.
    Should there be differences, then the coarse grained model
    would be readjusted so that in the new circumstances general
    agrement exists with the fine-grained model. At this point
    the spectrum of Issues under the questioned circumstances would
    be reexamined. If there is no variance between models the
    analysis continues with the coarse grained model.

    (e) Insights gained from the wargaming are reviewed by all


    three gaming teams to interpret them into resource require-
    ments and contingency plans.

    b. Operations and Time Critical Studies. Characteristically, this


    circumstance is thought of as an area that had.been under study by J-5
    plans that has moved to crises stage in which actual operations are
    being made. J-3 becomes proponent for the analysis where the J-3
    observer(s) now assume the role as the proponent team. All other
    teams remain as before, possibly augmented. Use is made of the prior
    analysis and resulting plan. Current analysis is made using the game
    reflecting actual disposition of forces. Warg ming Is pursued only
    into the near term, but with all game paths considered. One would
    expect frequent recycling of the game where the base data is reset to
    reflect the evolving situation. The purpose of this type of analysis
    would be to provide insight into what imediate courses of action are
    available to an adversary so that maximum use can be ,wae of contingency
    analysis accomplished in the planning phase. The procedure for this
    type analysis would follow as in paragraph a(2) except that the fine
    grained model would not be employed.

    4. The McClintic Theater Model as a Candidate for the Coarse Grained Model.

    a. (1) The McClintIc Theater Model is a wargaming method that is time


    responsive. Complete theater exercises have been examined in less
    than 4 weeks, starting from problem definition and data base loading
    through game completion.

    (2) It has additional appeal because it is easily altered. Its


    architecture handles the behavior of units modularly. The level of
    fidelity and the formulas for interaction between game units can be
    changed without reconfiguring the MTh base structure.

    b. The current subroutines in the MTh have major shortcomings from a


    studies and planning perspective (they were designea to support
    training at the Amy War College and high fidelity was not a priority
    concern). As it is currently configured, the model is valuable in
    providing insights into conflict.. However, supporting subroutines
    * should undergo a number of changes. The most critical are:

    Enclosure A
    A.8.
    ---------
    I)A logistics subroutine should be written that will reflect
    ogistic constraints of a battle field. Mr. McClIntic is currently
    writing one.
    (2) Subroutines that better play the air war. In particular.
    surface-to-uir engagements are badly represented. There are
    serious flaws In the air-to.air defensive subroutines.

    (3) The communication subroutine should be improved so that the


    effect of comkunication traffic capacities can be played. Of
    particular importance is the effect of destroying relay nodes and
    the effect of emW Jaming.
    (4) The attrition calculation must be improved so that there is a
    chain of logic connecting the configuration of a unit to its
    associated attrition parameters. See Annex 2 for a candidate.

    . c. An Important consideration for improving the MTM is that each phase


    of game (ground, air, and sea) be played with compariable grainularlty.
    At Annex 3, is a proposed method for restructuring the KTh subroutines
    to address this concern.
    d. One very important aspect of the MTN is that Its adaptibility
    allows for various levels of grainularity. That is, one is able to
    develop a family of subroutines In which different battle resolutions
    can be gamed. This adaptibility can be used to examine the full range
    of study. and planning Issues and, thereby, further recomending
    the TM as an analytic tool.
    5. The McClintic Theater Model, JCS, and SAGA.
    a. Internal SAGA Organization to Support the McClintie Theater Model.
    $1)Once the proponent agency (J-1, J-3,
    ormed its team and has established
    C3S) for a plan/study has
    an opponent team, SAGA provides
    a control team consisting of analysts from the appropriate division
    (Strategic Forces Division, Special Studies Divisions, or the
    Political Military Division) a Technical Support Division Analyst,
    and a CCTC elmennt. Figure 2 illustrates the full gaming structure.

    PROPONENT (J3,J5,C3S, etc)

    (SAGA & CCTC) CONTROL

    OPPOSING (OIARPS, etc)


    TEAM

    FIGURE 2

    WARMING ORnoATION
    A9 Enclosure A
    The Control Tera serves three purposes. One to translate the
    qualitative statement of the issue to be examined to quantitative
    terms; two, to determine the appropriate tools for addressing the
    quatitative problem statement; and three, to Initiate the data
    base and maintain the war game effort A principal role played by
    the control team is that of quality control. It is this team's
    function to insure that the study effort remains free from eithe'r
    of the opposing teams "exploiting the model."

    (2) Under this methodology of conducting studies, the Technical


    support Division would have to be augmented, by at least two
    personnel.

    - A model interface analyst who would work with SAGA Study Analysts
    assisting them In using the MTh. He would serve as the support
    broker by determining and coordinating CCTC resources.

    - A model development and configuration control analyst who would


    oversee the development of needed model improvements. Additionally,
    this analyst would keep abreast of other agencies modifications of
    the M4Th for evaluation as to their appropriateness with the existing
    version of the 14Th.

    b. Administrative Support.

    (1) War Gaming facilities would be required. Two possible alterna-


    tives are a centralized facility such as the one used by the
    Politico-Mlitary Division or a decentralized operation requiring
    remote computer terminals in each of the team locations. The
    latter option would require considerable coordination.

    (2) A substantial amount of programing support would be required


    of CCTC. An initial bow wave hequirsment would exist for imple-
    menting the model on JCS computers. In addition there would be a
    continuing requirement to service the model during gaming (it is
    expected that CCTC personnel would provide the interface between
    the analytic teams and the computer), as well as a continuing
    requirement to update and improve the model as the need occurs.

    c. Computing Hardware.
    (1) If KTM is to be implemented and used, the most critical
    support requirement is dedicated computer time. Current priority
    allocated for M4This such that completing just Initial moves
    requires a full day- an effort that requires a matter of minutes
    at the Amy War College (where dedicated resources are available).
    No effort has been made to quantify the main frame requirements;
    however, it should be clear that if very many JCS study efforts
    incorporate war gaming, a substantial main frame resource will be *
    required.

    A1O Enclosure-A
    (2) Current remote terminal hardware needs to be upgraded. As a
    mini.m, terminals comparable to the Techtronics 4054 with dynamic
    raphic option should be adopted. This will allow for quick, accurate
    oading of the base data for a game, as well as providing the analyst
    a visual picture of the game's current status. It would be very
    desirable that the terminals have a light pen capability that will
    allow data to be entered via the pen. This would further speed a
    study effort and would Insure more accurate Implmentation of the
    analyst's desires.

    / A
    OHN R.-EDWARDS
    3AJ,
    AD

    All Enclosure A
    S °

    ANNEX 1
    PROJECT FOR USMA FACULTY

    1. PROBLEM. Develop a methodology for rapid response analysis:


    - A methodology is needed for short term (measured in days/weeks)
    analysis of contingency plans and operations. The Chairman, his
    military assistant, and the J-5 have each remarked that SAGA's
    analyses provide detailed study at the expense of time, a critical
    resource to analysis of crisis situations. In brief, what is needed
    Is a methodology which will permit sound analyses that result in
    feasible, alternative courses of action for any particular crisis--
    and most importantly, the methodology must be able to provide results
    to senior level decisionuakers in sufficient time to permit decisions
    and actions that can effect the crisis in hand.
    2. DISCUSSION. The methodology should address the following:
    - Historical background of the crists.
    - Political, economic, and cultural constraints.
    - A range of possible US options--do nothing," diplomatic action,
    military aid, military intervention, etc.
    - For crises for which the US My not be directly involved, identify
    critical points which "y prmpt .US reaction and then identify possible
    courses of action to follow.
    - Resources required for each course of action.

    - Impact of adopting each course of action (on other plans, policies,


    and naticnal goals).
    - Actions necessary to end the crisis.
    - Post-crisis activities.

    3.DESIDS U
    a. Written proposal outling a methodology for rapid response analysis
    to include identification of:
    - Organization and Staffing.
    - Administrative Support.
    - Analytical Tools and Techniques.
    - Computer Support.
    - Procedures (flow chart of action).
    b rDtlmsratio, oft pro -eeselolog applieeto. poteatial (or
    actual) ctisls situation.
    2
    ANNEX 2
    AN ALTERNATE ATTRITION FORMULA

    1. Homogenous Opposing Forces. in this case, each force is considered


    to have one type of weapon with which to attack the other.

    a. The following quantities require definition to develop the


    attrition formula for the homogenous case.

    th
    - S (t) is the strength of'the I force at time t.
    I

    th
    - A (t) represents the strength of the I force eleent that
    I
    is able to engage the opposing force. As in the MTH, this models
    the fact that it takes time to maneuver a unit so that all its
    forces are in contact. It sems that Mr. McClintlc's approach
    Is adequate in that A (t) increases at a proscribed rate until it
    I
    Is equal to the full unit strength.

    th
    -* Is the percentage of A (t) that will engage an j type
    opposing force. This paraieter reflects among other things the state
    of mors in the unit and its level of training.

    th
    - ' is the rate of fire of the weapon used by the I force against
    ij
    the J-type opposing force. This parmeter incorporates the probability
    of target acquisition.

    th
    p is the probability of single shot kill by an I force weapon

    th
    against a j force target. This parameter Incorporates the probability
    of correct aim/launching, probability of correct weapon functioning, and
    th th
    the probabIlity of a j force kill when the I force weapon functions
    correctly.

    th th.
    - T (t) is the number of I force targets exposed to j force
    ii
    weapons. This number depends on the type of operation undertaken by
    th
    the I force (offensive, defensive, infiltration, etc.) and the type
    th
    of j forcewsapom (direct fire, tndirect fir%, etc.). ThI values for
    T (t) art detrmtned by theranalyss and vary from one-gams set".nq :o

    another.
    A13

    j-A
    th
    b. Calculation of the attrition against the j force exacted by
    th
    the I force. Define M (t) by
    ij
    M (t) -min (ir A (t), (t) ).
    ij i i ja
    This represents the rate of engagement that can be affected by the
    hth
    I force against the j force. The equation states that the number
    of engagements cannot exceed the number of available targets presented
    th th
    by the j force. The number of j force targets killed during the time
    interval t to t + t is given by

    ft+ t
    K (t +At) " p M dt. N
    Ittij ij
    In the special case where A (t) a S (t) and where T (t) aq f A (t)
    i I Ji ij ij I
    for both of the opposing forces, the equation (*) is equivalent to the
    Lanchester equations of attrition under his square rule. Thus, the
    approach provides somewhat more sensitivity that the classical Lanchester
    equations while still retaining a consistency with them.

    c. While It Is beyond the scope of this study, there are additional


    possib-ilities for increasing the-fidelity of the model by allowing the
    paramters *..,Q .. , and T..(t) to vary with dynamic battle conditions.

    For example, the percentage of available forces that will use their
    weapons not only depends on the units state of training and state of
    moral, but also depends on the amount of enemy fire the unit is receiving.
    Therefore, one might express f (t) as
    ia

    where 0 is the maximum percentage that will engage, and m is the

    mt nimum percentage that will engage. The parameter r reflects th4


    th
    analyst's view of the relatitive effect of j force munitions on
    the engaged unit. The sum in the argument of the exponential function
    thus, represents the cumulative effect of all units against the unit
    under fire. Each of the parameters q , and Tt (t) could be handled In

    the s m manner.

    A14 Annex 2

    15 * -~* . -
    2. Hetrogeneous Opposing Forces. In this case, the homogeneous subforces
    of each side are compared pair-wise and treated as in paragraph 1. The
    analyst is required to determine what portion of a homogeneous force
    elment Is to be directed against the various opposing force homogeneous
    subelements. That is to say, that the available forced for one component of
    a force A (t), must be subdivided into J parts, A (t) where j= 1, .o.,J,
    i 14
    th
    where A (t) represents the part of A (t) opposing the j component of the
    1j 1
    opposing force. Thus, the analyst is constrained to djtermine parameters
    such that 8 land such that A (t) AA(t). Thus the
    -
    14 Z i ii thii
    1th
    ij i
    kill experienced by the j component of the opposing force is

    where K (t +&t) is the kill experienced by the j compknent of the


    ii
    th
    opposing force at the hands of the i force component, and is determined
    by equation ( In paragraph 1. In that equation, M (t) is determined by
    i)
    1 n
    M (t) min (T" JE A (t) ,T (t) )

    A15 Annex 2
    BIBLIOGRAPHY

    1. Marshal1, A.W., The Current Defense Department Supported Effort to


    Improve Analysis Methods Related to Strategic Forces, 10 July 1981
    2. Abt, Clark C., Conceptual Outline for a Strategic Planning Model, Abt
    Associates Inc., 10 July 1981
    3. Abt, Clark C., War Gamng, International Science and Technology,
    August 1964

    4. Joint Chiefs of Staff OPLAN 1003-81


    5. Study Directive, Strategic Force Mix Study, 20 July 1981
    6. Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Action Officer Orientation
    Pmphl et

    A16
    i - " . " . , ,. . , " ," "" . '. ."""".: "" . " ".'-
    '.""~*
    ... ".,* . . . ... -:"'''''.
    A,1-"0. 3: A candidate Structure for the .'cCl ntic ,eater Yodel.

    1. "layingEeZents.
    a. Direct Combat Eements
    (1) Infantry Battalion
    (2) kmor Battalion
    (3) Armored Cavalry Squadron

    (4) Attack Nelecopter


    b. Combat Surpot flements
    (1) rt llery Battalion (listed seperately by veqpor type)

    (2) Close Air Support Aircraf t


    (3) Thterdiction 14rcraft
    () 'aal Contat Vessel

    (Z) irreoular Force ftit (Suarilla, operations)


    MC %Merr Ic Varfare Elemnt
    - rsction ?Indfts Air Craft/ Direction Finding Cround tnmit
    c. Combat Sustaining Elements

    (1) tAgistic stoflug/trashipment Facilities

    (2) Lwolistic raterials by type of material. Chits In Battalion Size


    consumption units.

    (3) Transporitation Battalion


    (4) Internal Battalion Transportation Ilemenist (Mat:erial Consuming I,'s)

    (5) ,ianemnea Dits: Direct Support thuits and Ceneral Support valts.

    (6) Sealift Vessel


    (7) MAirlL!t Aircraft/..elecoptur
    (1) !nrineer aation

    A3.7
    (I)A "e-Iise V.US ?NitS~z

    (Z.) Cambat AIX ?U"Is AIrulAft

    3)Def saie INPMUTe AU, Aft~ral

    (i. Kaor Migrat


    (5) au Wartaz. Umnte, laa OT Ueeltive

    Coecat rastors

    ~.t4~Sof Cr~f'~vut@su
    t.old ". ws: wed qwalty antd ap~acity

    pdmlmaefma W"4 (CMICtaes Caw.ar, vicale"alas, ae)

    (1Vabli tsm now w~as

    ~ m,.g ~a~fasgags

    fTfhla
    Cs Zdm"sU puttle dep-as of lapaasiblL7 that are cfurelaced to
    Lan'.tAftc,& a*

    ~ "PU~ 'fs.:a l.h P1*Yta oumt h"an efft an i:~t causes spainst

    A18
    A ultALLKI ANAIYSIN (DV 1HK MC'(.IhINTC TIIKAThUK /,IKI,
    CT. KOBERT V. ONUS

    LipnrUtont of lusurLi&l
    United Stautu HI.Liary Acadumy
    West Point, Now Yurk 10996

    The rapid analytical capability of Chu McClincic Theatre Model


    (Th) maku it attractive for use s force plannin, atn contin-
    Suncy (urui anawLyis.i LuuL. A prudUIl liLLU14 sttl) i.r r litLu I II-
    sicLus. ul" 14TH by Chu Officu Of tCh Joint chtuu of tiltf' (UJV.) Ii
    a detailud anaLyuls oit the Luturnal opurations and imbuddud asump-
    clone of tie modal. Tlie research efftort provides chat analysis
    and focusuo upon whutir MTH performu; ihu runoctons advertIN1d anl
    wvlhuer Chown functLuon are muduld ting urudibLo aninlytica cuhi-
    nlquov. Thil analyisa did reveal curui'Lssa eauily amuandud modulLng
    in(Lduitiets. The primary concluvion, howevur, to that MKT in aln
    analytical tool which posouesse considerable potential as a high-
    luvel Planning and dusllon ad.

    1. PUP2O8 AND SCO0M OFTH


    N1USARQI

    ,y June 1981 the McClincic Theatre Model (KIMT)was receiving widespread usc and attention
    tho Army analytical community. The Studios, Analysis, and Gaming Agency (SAGA), OffLce
    Oihe Joint Chiufs of Staff (0JCB), was directud to conduct an indupendent uvaLuation o"
    I and Lu invoetisiste potential uwos of MTH wLthin 0JCM. Major John Edwnrds, Dupartmant
    Mathumatics, United Stated Military Academy, iMrfor"md the letter tasking whiLu on su.uur
    ,uilaipwLihSAGA in June, 1981. Also on summor internship with SAGA In June, 1981J, Chi,
    ;hor was asked to perform the lidopeadeat ovaluutLUn of MTh. This report #umaiLxus ht
    aprehensive analysis of the methodology, structure, and algorithms of MTH.
    7ni rapid analytical capability of the McClintic Theatre Model (MTh) makes It attractive
    r utu am a forcu planning aid contnguncy fores asnatyas tool. A prudunt initial 0tvil
    Lur to utiLLsatLun of NTH by oJ.Cr is a detailed analysis of Chn Internal. upuraciuns anW
    ouJidud absiumpruiuns of thu model. Tisle reeaurch effort provides that analysis sand 'uctiiuas
    )n whocher MTH performs the functions advertived and whether those functions are modeled
    iing crdible analytical techniques.
    lhu iscopts of Chi* research was to digest availabiu M4TH documentation and pruviuus MTM
    aluations, lnturviow Mr. McClintic and observe operation of KM at the Army War CuLlugo,
    grcLso the SAGA version of MTN an a current contingency scenario and on smaller test
    snurius, and anilyse in depth the software which models key MN functions.
    LL Lb impurtaiLtLu no tu t dynamic naLure of 1Th. having buuomv uputLunal ia 1911U, 1M'H
    4 vury young muduL which Is undeurgoing rapid ruflnement in ruspons to noods axpussud
    uur of Lht model. This research Wfort addresses the MTH version which was operation'l
    -SAGA LitJune 198L. Althouh thu model's bust, structuru and operation remain unchangeud,
    tre haevo boun siaursto lallunlealnlsu alawu Junu, L.9 1. Thw ;auchur, wlwir lsiusini-
    mudellos
    ., iIaui addud Quceamto rcgardLdi tiue later uaiim~niaumnts.

    2. OVKIAI. IVAIAKI"I UN OF EHT


    1,iwsf cusmI 1u lo il I a il vIAlI t L64 VU Of I'' ' i Li l. Lith 1h L Ia,Lit: "rwit IV hudV I
    'a (PriI) Iu
    amisyL ic.1I LUVI wilvs iailiu
    llaieau
    onuiLdu ptuSLtn
    'ISIVubI mi4assu A IiJhlil-iL- live t iss1&dlu i-
    ipllsit|I
    all *Aid.

    im irLi LiAavu of KET N uo Lt Chun top-down, iislair atructuru whsich ill town lr uwauy tialtiot,
    rulli|lmi sulcl ais Uit of ouratLun, rapLd unwuuLiwn of time, adapca.bLitLy Lo DOw r'ltimi' ,-
    slt.s, dits mLilimaiL data prepuratiun timu. GivQei lihU struithllu, Wiml is part iLt-ul,.ly
    1u.&blu Lue. for quickly Identifying feasilble lliuriutiviss In i ia "iaaUr auJoa.i
    uIallall

    B1
    sunt difficulty, easily amended over Lime, IN tile ovOrsimplistic modolini techniques
    ad within certain 1W1Tsubroutines. Annexes A through 11contain an analysis and re-
    Ltd aiditfivLLon of som or the key MTN suhroutinos. Annex I contains a summary or
    udifitaLlullu Witch vil ulLminato many %of LI, dlfJiculti:o. Thoov curront modt-lLng,
    LLta,., icwavur. should not overshadow tim oupurb nodelinsg nd aalyuis purrormd
    by Mr. McCllntLc and other analysts at the Army War College. As resourcu permit,
    ular subroutines in which doticiencles olc can be refined.

    ANNEX A - K MM TODOLOGY AND ORGANIZATION

    I to a hybrid analytic/simulation/wargame combat model. As such, certain combat func-


    r dupictod by mathemautical equations (aluilyt:Lc) whoro others are rupruseoted by
    awn uf( ruindom liumbru wILls assigAd iruoabilticun (simutatiln). Additoalsi ly, the
    ii JuGisluII makuru aro affordud active partlicpatlin in thl conduct u thu conflict
    10).

    rM' was dosgnvd by Mr. Frud McClintiL at Lhu Army War ColLege (AWC) in 1980. The
    L ubjuctLvuu Ir developent of the model were to enhance the AW wargamLng curriculum
    asist with the AWC TacticaL Command, Readiness Program. Addltional .y, M11 found
    Ase in the Army Chief of Staff's Contingency Planning Seinar in November 1980. Since
    t.e MTN has bean utillsed by numerous DOD analytical agencies and operational units
    111, L1 Strotoagc Studios Institute (SSI), Readiness Command and Iapid , inLpymont
    (kiU.K)IM, KWJTV), North Atlantic Treaty Orgainiatcion (NATO), U.S. Army Kuropu
    Ui), and other agencies included in Figure 1.

    II T M
    (NccLINTIC THEATRE MODEL)

    AMLYT IC

    * HYBRID SIMU.ATION COMBAT RoEL

    * YOUNG. DYNAMIC MIDL


    MR. FIED NCLINTIC AWC 1980
    *RTM USERS
    *AWC (TACTICAL. COseiO READMIHSS. CURRICULUM)

    oCSA (coTlUCY FLAMNG se5INAR. WV 80)

    *VI I CORPS (CmO MEASON. APR 81)

    9REDCON/RIF Cu 81)-
    °SS (PAANITAIq POCE ANALYSIS STUDY)

    'NATO (GENEVA PROTOCOLS

    9SAGA eIREN 9USNA(VNIVAC) *CASAA 'CMA 0mi"C"?


    EVALUATION OF MI
    E
    EXCELLENT COMPUTER ARCIIITECTURE
    NEEDS SOME NODELING REFINEMENTS
    VALUABLE TOOL WINUMEROUS USES

    Figure 1.

    B2
    tw.ku wart oibrvbhul4a mu±MW*AM dupusndust. Ai&nux U

    CQovurt f rom thrasbbold to breakpoint corsioulogy. Anex D


    kti. Iuqd %.(Utv a.4c 16Uppi,4 4eBKII4turdatthwl ely vililiiv Aigs'jG K
    UIJUlk Ulfr5C VUI1t4bl14Cy and vvUajvs LU01411ty. SUA 1.VOt
    Uu IAutric convention, with Iall 4liiitanuuI oas9urc. Annux A
    Altuw fur from form laput to~ YIKST dato~ liitlulia lust Atuux A
    ruu c i ou. (avtcoimplvitu avitu Jwwt 19UL) I4: c twit IIX
    inctudu oddtJtivul~ torcuia/buarrtir afuf~et.. U%Wit. MAow A
    S4ution L1..D
    InhWhal furva kiseriptur f'or uaivi
    Arlvc/r~~uw Astitux A

    wounrt ,Axb
    IuUe -A aVRd.

    ur w"l, wu airu miay c umu u Luwrm toi ma 4tIw iwavi


    mw Th~is ha ;) wiwei
    CucLaily, tho usoau c.r~tLquw of Xrtt by nluoutQui LVD ulvwrnst air hulpful it
    ,mount of tuwmdeL. Oo th. otbog' hMad, cura must be. Lakust, to ±oaurv Usat much
    ;y douu not dojirade thea model bvauseof 4aiJlurv to maintain avicusry modet docti-
    i tar fujiur toa imut odttlucMona. In is ystovmatic andI bunuficvaal .usiolr. Ani
    i twotingu, to bo actunulud by the. aumuruon uauro of WIN t Iriouta IV), Iwo. kiwe.t
    4f* ur Junv 19th2 at chm Army War Coliugo. Contiig udur liaison. of thia ittur
    uvud WiTH ducumaCaClon Is. ssentLaIl for urdecly expanswion of tba KTH undugavor.

    i. Aray War Col.lege, NSCIlntlg Thueatro Ikai~ea (M), Vol I (War Came Diraccor'a, Mtanual),
    July 19#1.
    S. Asay War College, McCCintic Thquiry &gua.MLg(). Vol L1 (Uurfs Manual), I) July

    S. Army Wart College, KcCILntc Theatre Mtodel Q), Vol IlL (Controller's Manual), 17
    11Y 1461

    S. AcVAy W~ar cuillua jcitutto Ttwaacru Itudul. ()

    B16
    ,rhjI a. Capabiliti_.. A. 1TH iS dolgtnud Lo be compatLbLu with certinu unuIul va.Un-
    i" graphics technologies. The Army War C llege has experimented with graphic tabLuts on
    ch LO input orders (rather than using terminall). These worked well, but were not Large
    Lagil to cover thu entire thuatre area of uperations. Thus, tl|hLr use hats been curca led
    L1W LImO bLnI,. LI Largur graphic tab.Ituts could be obtained, this midu ofrtlptratiun
    varn pruferable.

    A onu-culur graphics program which prints out ill terrain and barrier nformacLon I1an
    van very Ielpful In visualizing the terrain and Idontifying data base errors.

    A multi-color graphics program has boont developed for the APPLU micro computer, but size
    the symbols is too largo to permit display of a large sector.

    The Army Wtar Coltvgo ad other KM users; 0" ogniso the vailte air iraplhLa capabllit lun
    continue to invoeLLSate thur easibililty. WIN, In particular, to a modul whiLch would
    SrvotLy enhanced by ilitkaigu with tatal-ol-thu-art graphics.

    ANNKX I - ADDITIONAL WM1 FUNCVTON

    m'nassuli A through G pruesent -those functions of MM which wore investigated in gret do-
    L. As stated tn Section 1L, Annex A, KMN purports to model numerous other combat func-
    In. NaLher than misrepresent or unfairly criticize MTN in these areas, roeren.u Is made
    Lily anrrunt RN documentation, Reforoncos J through 3.

    At Is anticipated that close scrutiny of those other WMN functions will reveal the need
    I refinements similar In nature to those already suggested. For example, the nuclear
    I chemical routines (which depict this aspect of the battle in a very general, parametric
    ise) wLLl undoubtedly need revision to accommodate scenarios requiring greater sunsitLvity
    nuclear and chemical Issues. Fortunately, WiN seems to easily adapt to such requirements.

    ANNEX I - CONSOLIDATLON OF WN RRCOWIDATIONS

    .urrent ArMy War Collese KM Imrovemont Plan. The current Army War College (AWC) Nh
    o. improvement plan obtained frotm r. McClIntic, consists of the following desired modi-
    :scions:

    A. Ownrehip of maneftelds by -UD or SiUl forces (currently a unit has no abiLtty


    to past through a friendly imltiuuld).
    U. sepaaste arrayu for minafields, contamination, etc.; instead of packing n U
    the THU array.
    C. Combat Multipliers for flanking operations.
    U. Scramble Defensive Counterair (RCA) aircraft to engage punotrating aircraft.
    K. ICA uver a uilt (aircraft carriurs).
    WIT Recommondat ions. A summary of the )I'M recommendations resulting from this invos-
    4,LaIvu ufrairt arc catalogued below:

    IRkC4MENDATION RMI'KMSNCU
    A. Lnclusion of capability for user to input macro or micro Annex C
    routing Instructions. Section II.C
    B. Parametrically address routing cunflicts and transport Annex C
    system degradation. Suction 11.1)
    C. UtLLLsu adversary dependent attrition actoars. A nux iD
    Section 1.1
    I). Tune thu curret .sIcrtiosin aquistlhlif by altering thlu Anivx I)
    OtLrtItlsa feltLur, rtithwr th4n Il'cl~t-lllng tile battit suctsoll 1.0
    LI ws.
    I... uItalu] e
    ldit lnlsi*l racuarc lol iIti tl uq u ttiu. Its Aisiiut. I)
    vtllhur gonas, Isanure that boundtry couditiluU (aliihl- suctiull I.. -slid V
    lotiust sand disparate force levol.,) tare properly dealt
    wItl.
    V. Moku ArtiLLury asseusmunt.u ulLLvu
    t utothu vuinursubility Aitnux I)
    uf the target engaged. SectioaI l.(W
    G. M ke artIlLury assessments sunnitivu to thu lethality Annox I)
    or the munitions used. Soctlon i.G4

    B15

    Nor, d% .'# UN )V
    ItL ilupicl, Iusic sl in a tuallusl f lahinu buL. ; last £i efplwsisus Lat
    auapaa'L.Iik'
    s canv r Lnlt of logstics upon combat operations.

    It uly a0puCL ut "muintuauace" deplcted io MW is a pareric treatment of itircra lt


    9AJ,11Ly. III ,eLuaIILLY, this ruprusunets iw eavoiilabillty compununt oflA . IItI.- mualma-
    u .sold ru I iebL icliy colpunlluSeLS 4r at Impsded

    iti..wad .evoLain;abljitv VuoErson o( WM. Kill to currently being proparud for a IuaditiouM
    ad (M OIN(t*)
    uviurcLas In late July. In ruspun.av to tIMDOM ruqluatla, I'vu vlaas;s
    . vo"
    y. addiLivtal HM cunaLduratlunm, and more ruaLt tic ruesupply opura uon. earv Itwil5
    y
    Lu H. The mary ruualils;ic resupply operations will Ancludu cranstpurctaLtua v.slaviLy
    raints, partial simulation of a resuppLy nutwork, and cross-leveling of supplius be-
    units. Thao MDCMN addtions WIll greatly enhance NIs sensitivity to logistic
    dvrAL Luos and muty bew Included a* LI purmnwnt asddition toKM or at;; moduitar IsasrL ror
    is .oualyAll; lisrjLUtcu Lnuusa. This duL .o'rmlol Ion will bp madt. II lhwi gs s'eq~l. Ia iml 4#1
    XLJU(0 uxurcisv.

    ANNX G - KM INWU'rVACK WITH THE USIU

    Way ot the lanurfaces between 1110 and tih useur have been diucussd in previous annuaum,
    aspect of KTN ia so unique however, that it deserves separate attention. NTH is ex-
    ply usour friundLy. This quality allows thu user to wrestle with thu substantive issuu
    IV Wsdrai., riLLhUr titan wtii cUquleIX iuMaJ Womlng rules or intinalLah III rumoplt.r III-
    .L &uUL.

    Inaut into WrM. A. The input of Initial data Into M1 was described in Annex U.
    Jurinig Liu cottouct of a wurgame, input of orders into K=M is purformed intoractivuly,
    #1 I query Ltu user fur Lnformatlon end the uwr will respond with curtain key wards;
    tam MOVE, VLKi, ute. A complete listing of these key wordo ts in Kufarunu 2. Intvr-
    y, WN writes this Input on the appropriate IN.U1 or JNMID file, periodically scans this.
    t 'LLu, anl Use If vtadteenut to direct execution to the appropriate orders subroutine.
    The cuntroller can also enter numerous commads in NrK. by typing HELP', he ruuivoo a
    of these commends.

    . A. H periodically ruturns intelligence to the players. This in-


    Io viLir itusurtud by KMN bucauso of Vel baL
    llIustsut 1a1t0110 (slUVmoastv , alt~rtilis O.',.)
    y Lilt: la~yVar (auquut fur Lim battle tilusu aitlluatlnu repert, wI1is41
    '"t116.).
    041i1i top
    uru &b*Lstud us appruprlatu OTIIAS and WI)) fil*e as It Is uuuratud by WINl. Is ii
    printud on the players terminal at the designated time in the battle. This out-file
    cturo asso provides a valuable RlIAeT capability.
    The Ki iSTAKT c:apability allow* the game to be stopped and continued latur wiLl.1 Lu
    battle situation. It is also a Ssod protection against system crashes. This restart
    biLLcy was used effectively during the test scenario runs. Znternally, the current
    U, OTIIKU,
    I suluctud unit attributes, and unit locations are saved into the permanent
    uvury 6 mLnuLum of actual LI .
    AL Owe und ot a wargams, H= utilizes data which l as beun collected in TAILLY to compute
    ures of effectiveness (HOgs). The NOR& vhich TALLY currently computes are as follows:
    1. square miles vs timu
    1. atres1LhS rumauLng vs time
    3. X initLal, strength ve time
    4. aircraft rumalinn vs Clm
    5. 0 of etileue In liatud (On.ii;lisulvu)
    4. X Uf 'urCeag
    utcommiLted (riazubLilty)
    Liisl'omlly. is .u'giVLV
    ute reaut ULtit uatuuv- Lu pruvidud.

    Ki us
    me Lim aetendard WWWCS graphics packsaj%, CISY, to display Lim Mus graplhliclil ly
    liiotutlrauw pie charts, Graphs, ae05.

    A muditicatiota currently beint programmd by Xr. RuClintic ts to allw I'o"dyslasau ob-


    ,aclun o reults. This wuuld allow the cuitroLlor to obtain statistical datsa and lruph-
    uuatpel durisig the eousi at the vergmp~, rather than at the end. This will be isvUtlu-
    cuntribeiua ~to. KrM.

    B1d4

    A
    .4216 .
    .i4pab0Licy until Lt can reorient Iaslf In the direction of the attack. This modi ication
    reapresents an important improvement to MTN. The case with which the modification can be
    roade ;ittests to the flexibility of INT.

    ANNKX K

    I. HI" Atir Combat Modallin.


    A. This annux addresses the modeling of air assets and air defense assets in NTH. Analysis
    of these elements is abbreviated because the air related subroutines in MTH are currently
    undergLing a major revision. The original NcClintic model did not play the air battle to a
    sufficient degru of detail. The current revision* will correct numerous deficiencies In
    thu lr batlelv. Hubsoqeont parographo will addreas KH air battlo (no; amonded)and wLi
    Willtui d uvuuu tlusu u( humu ruvittloua uitL l. the prucess Ls compottud.

    B. Air-to-air finsaoMneQ _. Air-to-air combat is portrayed by fighter aircraft with the mis-
    sions of combat alr patroJ (CAP), defensive countoratr (cA), or escort (NBC). All fighters
    art auvslned to units with CAP, OCA, or VAC missions. CAP unite patrol a Largo area and In-
    tersect penetrating aircraft with a small percentage of their combat power. DCA unite do-
    (ond specific sites and, under the revieion, scramble their aircraft to combat Incoming
    hoistlie aircraft. This will require the Incorporation of detection functions, Intersect
    cal.vulat/ut equations, and undgame consideratLions (probably or detoct/hitt/kilt) into KIN.
    C. ALr-to-surface Ensaemento. 1. Close air support and Interdiction are modeled in a
    fashion similar to artillery. Ich type of aircraft has a lethelity parameter which deter-
    mines the amount of atqrLlon to be uniformly applied to all units In the target box. The
    comments of Annex I, Section G, regarding munition and target vulnerability dependencies
    apply here us wall.
    2. Another interaction between sir and ground elements to aerial reconnainsance (RKCC.).
    Wlwn an aircraft overftes a hex containing enemy units, the RICON subroutine draws A ran-
    dom numbur and compares It vith a specified detection probability. Li tho random number
    exceeds the probability; the ground unit Is detected, the unit's size as estimated (using
    the smwe random number), and this Infonation is transmitted to the appropriate commander.
    I. Two sthor factors are being included by Mr. NcC41itic in the current air battle rovi-
    siaws. ViruL of Oil, secondary target opportunities are being Included for all aircraft.
    Sucundly. a qusuaing system for alr orders i boln inmtitutod to allow air orders to ac-
    cumulate and be executed as aircraft become available.
    U. .ur'asco-&toAr Knasoments. L. KN probablistically attrites aircraft overflying a hox
    occupLud by hotl:Ie units. This attrition Is uniform regardless of the typo of unit over-
    f lown. This is the only type of air defense function eled by KI and t most akin to
    ground fire from small arms.
    i. rru dopus s101 Lmulaco tho use of aLr dufuina art.ilery (ADA) assets. To di thils. HIM
    wu. assu1 n a much gruter lethality against aircraft to ADA units and extond the arvca of
    LnCluenco outside of the hex to reflect the proper'detectLon and engagamonts rnnges of" .i
    ADA unit. ThLi NTH Inability to play ADA assets is a significant shortcoming and has Limited
    MTH's npplLcability to current scenarios, particularly tn the Middle Nast where modeling of
    Hyrl.se 1AM 0Ites In t entral to thu analysis. it Is recommended that thifn modeling or ADA
    i0 KMN be gLvwu a hLgl priarLLy.
    K. L.Aft..t. wNI models helicopter and transport aircraft life assets. This function
    won $ot lnvutfratud letdupth. A brLf doecrltlon is contained In efeoruncu 1.

    ANNKX V

    I. HTM 5ubsr.aniabLi.lty Costdolurattonls


    A. rre..lj. VuraLaun._..JJ. f..! . Tim current vtIluI of M duiticta three c lanattt uJ" nup)lY (1101.,
    Ammo, aud ethe) andmanLtunsnce to A IlImICud dolgreu.
    i. clsses of" supply are stockpleod at a hypothtical depot. Kaich unit al1o
    Vise tlorsa
    puhbsuahUs abasic Load of supplies which ar* reduced by movement, combat. atnd Lime. U111.
    (ailiag to respond properly oxperieeee moeno t, combat, ad time. Units CaLling to ru-
    suppely properly eupertlOe omemMet and combat powerdegradaions. The present HTM

    B11
    1t
    tmfq. *I Iry A#UesMUMML. 1. Ammuasiouu ainuction I.A. ofA Lit alslsux, si(L~Ilvry
    4asut.re a to all units in it*target box. Nore specificaily, WN will fIrsLi. nsure
    Lhai. range UNd ;u=mentioa Constraints are susisflod. It no, MTN "fires" Liao artil1i'ry frtom
    mt .rt iijry unitl to astarget at a specified t iml for asupoc.ll.d numbur tol voii fym. la
    &uumud i-sL.* fi ri. tordur ow*Almrlessces to L5 stousto di. lay sitLi
    I stuvist i's, W. LwIKI lu ves ilov ami.
    .6 suLu doeity bautweusts submsquent volleys. NMM fluuasiicy sal iwis for easy varanis as uL
    Lthhl tLmuf dulay factors.
    4. Tisuorv iare several resuits; produced by sirtil Sony Impacting in the LarjCut hex. Firmt ill
    -allI, all unILin Isa 1 lieu laeu atrIcd uniformly accordin~g to ons artillery lettally liars.-
    mluLasr ashawii tu each artillery unit. The parameter designates this fraction, of ItoM om-
    bsat strength that0 would be actricod by oam full volley impactno an a unit in thes target

    1.5wrtilary "ma5uNSC55S prucualuras In- udifivd iam Lvii wayss.


    'J. IL. lu aeicmmusadud ct Lim
    Vra. arlLetry Impacting uon is Iseturogasous gruus oft units den not in relity actrit all
    unliss is thsat group equally. MS~s units are obviously more vulnerabla to artillery than
    ares u~surn. As WM ealstesum an, ammunitioni deoLt 55155 an5 sarmr uit i arfier Simi tdlmo Itsi'vo
    W( 4LtLLIleaa from 111mM artillory attacks. TWwmt asre several Lecasaiqass whiiao uaud curreo!
    this difficuLty in WM. Onu feasibLe approach in the usP41nsien Of the artillery lsthaillty
    piarauuLir iste ia vector which reflects the letchal ity of that type of artilLory ssgaiawot air-
    gCUMILtypu of units oat11iffreat target vulnersability categorical.
    4. The ouvund recommended mdifleatsm to the WIN artilery mums~ummuLt rOUtIaW lmavaVOi.
    Wuapeasl 40IeLLYsay cwderation. A: present, MIM dosm not consider thu type of ammuni:Lua
    [&casd by Liao artillery. Leae guided projectiles, conventional high explosive amunitionis.
    iamd smaoku rounds af fect the targeted uait dif ferently. present technology does not atfford
    the Luxury of modeling tilem all the same. Consequently, the lethality of artillery vollitys
    ftlmuld be igaugdl according to the type of muniio used. This cosiderat.ion vxpssndia Lhac
    ILetlasaILy vUVter (menltioneOd above) lac0 a lethality matrix whic~h provide* a value for isads
    Latget/mwhiL:onO combinsation.
    5s. MNh also delays all moeving salts impactd by artillery for a specified &lam. The vir-
    runt delay time is 20 minutes.
    KI. ,Withdrpawal/Threshbolds. 1. N requlues units to withdraw from a battle when they are
    attrtted to a :hroshhold level. A unit clwoshhotl to defined by NIH to mean the fracthion
    isf C41sVOLIVIe 01119 a unitL/f*SMMIWul AS WiMln a s utffr prior to withadrawasl. Tlirvsalld
    IN Lite NIOmss~UiiaL10 compLement Of the more familiar team, breakpointL. froakpotIni Is idefined
    .aS Lsae level of atterLtion at wic~b he malt/commander will be forced to withdraw. The MN
    Wait LiareashULad vaLues lea uncuead by the uver wiwn exercising tme ancillary WXT autco base
    l'repaatun Program. RWe or blue Commanders ay selectively change unit threshholds during
    L.iao cusa is( a NIH run. Threshihold values, when not preempted by oser Input, are Initial-
    &Siu an follows:
    Special opan Unit .9
    Air Foum Unit .1
    All UthcV Units .

    4. niSbLurcaLly, combiat madialLag breakpinlt (or tlrshloid) volue have beena ebsurvull to
    Uu mibusin depoademast. Tite majority of today's combat tiudols recognixie this fact and assign
    44iffrentL unit Ltesisldsl for different unit missions. Nince MNh dons I lotsaill.6i minnsionts
    Lis units, aggumdat-ieo of tis factor in WIN In nout straightforwasrd. It ts senuommuesdvil,
    asuwevur, thot HKM address tim alssion depondeunt Lblsislmuld tomato by lowr.Ing; ia unit'sa thrush-
    lisold (raising its breakpoint) as It acquires marv time In a bell, thus depicting its incruamod
    defenasive pusturm.

    1. A *:esuseICV ch'sarr.U Whiuls wMiLd ma1ke Liae mosiviI srv "wool* frlesdly" fur hasv tlot isimakser
    &&.USAsUVvnasluas Lita mure al iir lvi'aJOl~nspe lut turmimleo;y.
    imsd LsstaLtIi6

    I . "%thItp~ U.64.%t*.Kas1-,gume.esh is. mrm. Attim'IIt..m loa


    iuastio easuti,.us asr icviaai .' wort-
    LI,..., Lw46 uMsGM." luscems Inavolved Its a. baCt. 41i610"' Jon much am 40 "501o f Iflh&* 1011101"Sliikly
    .tssa. ru hli this sItuation, MTH simply Stamn Lte cobat Volitio for .a11 IRl'S and asl I
    U. sal L,* ivelvvd Ls LIM batle. It then porrarm. L.1 attit ion voomqiutat Acso; wit istIivi
    .4,~~C4.LUisiab v0lueS. Thsu approoath Is apilrlllae fur a modial Much IV 11TH.
    J1. L''A K tisnt/ntQuaial.in runsiams to rucassaendastiasns (rums voimS vimuasil-
    Ut's. Hr. Ns.Citaatc Ito presently modifinag N too iseouant for the possbility of fI sanksa
    mvoments. To de Utis Its I* including a unit uriesstation parameter. UtLilogss thins paa-
    motor a uit whichs Is attacked on a flan* we Crum thew rear will) usperienme deg4t.sdvti combait

    812

    - ~ ~ -'~."-~-;~'r'-r . 17'T:V.-r .. *--


    ANIKX D
    I. !H .i.Ld Combat Ndeolng

    A. IN dupi.tru land combat using a low resolution (iropowr scoor approach. battle Is on-
    juLnud when two adversaries occupy the s"me hex or adjacent boxes. Basod upon the relative
    cumbaL volihtal Of the opposing units, WN decrowtetcs each unit poriodically to reflect baL-
    Lie 4ttrILLtin. Te battle undo whoa one of ti tilsnto s forced Co withdraw bucausu -1f ly
    .LLrILLLuit of A opucLflad percentage of Its original strength. ArCillery, also a source. of
    attrition in the Land battle, uniformly attrits all units In its target hex. Other factors,
    to be discuebd, similarly degrade the combat value of affected units. The above synopsis
    of land combat moduling In KM will be expanded Ln oeboaquont paragraphs.

    I. Tim .. mibut valueo utILLzed it oare mourv.y iuatitativu


    M irt utLt'u caitpe-
    fmote
    bilLty to wage combat against the saomy. Any numbur of different (Irepower score convun-
    tione (WEI/WUVs, for Instance) are useable in the WIN attrition formulas. AC present TH
    cannot accommodate combat value dependencies upon unto or mission type. Regarding dopon-
    doncy upon unit typo, consider the situation lIt which "unnatural alvoroaro." mutch in air-
    Lillury and armor vage combat at close ranga. In tile case, the armor shock accLn and In-
    vulnurabilicy to direct fire artillery would dictate different levels and rates of attrition
    than with more conventional combat, mob a armor against armor. Similarly, close combat
    botwuon artillery and dismounted Infantry would result in different Levels and ratu uof
    uLLriLtuI ties both aides. Tiese exam"lO 11uoirate a defLntu unit type doputdonty In ;iL-
    Ltiun culauLtiuns Which should be modeled appropriately. To do this in 1T would ro-
    quire storage of adversary dependent attrition race coefficients for each unit. Consider-
    ing the small number of unit types In WNM, this modification would not significantly degrade
    executLon time or memory requirements. For those familiar with Lachostor models oF combat,
    tIIS change would establish a heterogeneous attrition capability In ieu or the present
    homogeneous technique.

    C. As mentioned above, mission type dependencies are also act portrayed by WIN. For ox-
    ;mpl, combat between an attacker and a defender or equal strengths will generally result
    In ma lh higher attrition of the attacker. Thus, a nit's attrition rate is dupp nduat ipon
    its mission. MTN does not assign missions to unats. Consequently NTM cannot expLicLtLy
    model this dependency, but does lncrease a unit's cobat power according to the time It |Me
    uccupled the hex affected by the bettle. Mi technique, given proper tunri of Its pare-
    mutern, appears to be satisfactory.

    U. Am musLLoisnd oarlier, ITN decrements each unit peridoacally to reflect battle attrition.
    To do this MTN utilisee the following attrition formulas
    2
    frours I LUs~Lvguiu - .O;Jog=m
    frenl valge) 1 OX (3
    2 os friendly value
    This simplifies to the relationship.

    O
    F '

    which is observed to be the familiar Lanchester Square Laws

    . 03 K and, convrsaly, - .0. V.


    dt e

    . Thu Lanclstur attrition rate coefficient (.03 cauealies/firr/2 hours) value was fir-
    rivedel .It thistuIh ty lon06 or UulphL tchutLquwu h
    wisel, Lapped the ml I iLary t'apprtlest. ,of numr-
    gwb tslur Army list, attruao uqtusistomi,.
    TimntlSdur'i. rigloisll y rle-aruuiovssd Z |onse.,s peer
    .u-e.ill ituaor but cUrruelsLLy uCIIlxV a tw hr-. JWVrQumct whichl rcf ltu a Iuwk*v rit' u Ot..
    taILiWl. Mel. NLtCILc statLUM that tih time Licrumusit, rathlr tain cu mulgsl.Ludu at titi
    ;uvfficiunt, was changed to reflect a more realistic combat reporting situation (battle ro-
    .rL, frum subordLinatu units uvury 2 hours rather titan every 30 milss'm). Usfurfnist;Jly,
    Lioi, lsa*;reia,;u Lot List battle tim utup will allow forcus to suffer ttriLtiu h1uywml Li,, tlmea
    LhaL Lly would normLly be withlrawn from battle. A preferred approuc to tssing Lim
    ;,tLritiun rates would be to adjust tin .03 (actor.

    F. Ase .jddaiLuulIl attrition ru.ooftfLioelu copuldurailon to that Lino attrition r'Lat, in


    arubimIbly Ius uqU41 (ur boit aides. Vuils ruewov, a given sAdo would display dklfurst guot--
    (Acients for its different force members (armor, Infantry, artillery, etc.). Thoe. issues,
    previously discussed in 1.3. and I.C., should be researched further.

    Bli
    .. 44 1aiu al, maslMum waUl aopvv and du5i out cww ir any viula isel~ivivl muvuisi se .sclseee..
    t. The WK routing mechaism to proper In Light of the purpose ad nature of M14. KXUCeL
    decerminaion of the best movement path Waeld be possible througth the use of a shortest path
    .Q1guriLsm (such is Ojilucra's), but wuek n alepritlem would seriousily baull down Will austil it

    Ca.lecutatiumi uf UIacancus in MR11.L. The caLcuiation of discancus betwun KM Imalit;


    1..akws Lw aecount proper trloemstrie; relatinshilps. The following formula is ustilieud
    Lu %s..&iuLaLu Lim distanco betweuen cthe courst o tewt Imiate witg ourdilaie (KWZ, 1182) .en

    2
    UQ0WFAR AVGU IN
    a $?.)(K2-4Wl)4. [(1)~k

    This Luca uodur Litrsqur ru cowL s ito


    oil si iofa LiaW PyLh1~.IuiI4a tiW01*00m, if bt
    c;, and calcul~ates tilt distatice to Isom units froem origin to destination. Nxmiitton of
    the I%** terrain structure reveua that the Porthi-South C111)distance between adjacent boxm
    centeurs is aruaLur titant LIM: Kjssi-WitL (14W)disuiosseta butwuue Sndjarvot IIA-1 .vt'eatvrs. TIMIS$*
    till VW dis4PLOCUnWt is muAltIp1ed by a (occur Of .416 (Note: (.066) *8 .15). Motu Limit LIeu
    HS coLumn of Wtave; contains unly odd or ovue numbure (me oxplaissue is Annexc 5).
    i. 11w AVGUIKX cure in equation (1) adjusts for LIh; differences Ji north-soutsh hoa imonstions
    r'Vl.Lud Lu prolattiy to tihe equator. 'fla (Ollowin AVCIICX equsetiim portilmaly ift'rispamu title;
    .edjubtmait lay CUICUlietng the avera#V beiwLaos

    AVGIX iXIZIsN z NAIIXI(ecall laa)()


    +.

    U. MTIS duo noL currently possess the capabiL~ty to speuify haroscopic or macrosavopii
    routub Eve ov~g units. The user may Input imi desire to move a unit to a t'erLseil dutiLI-
    nation, but may not specify which boese will be traversed on route. Becondly. tiw uffer
    may not input a oerLP4 of successive destinations to depict a vAcro-movement plan. rt is
    ructmemgeidud thaL KMN be minC(UW to allow fur oualcfluatLan of cheese roite. by the-' isfir.
    This modification would not be costly La torm. of memory allocation, oiwoution time, or pro-
    ramming skills; and would provide a move realistic command environment for the usur.
    p.. hutiolutlum sf routing o-onflicts Is not d.'piovv In 111%l. Two finite uciisng the anmo
    ruutu do ituL. impude echi otusr'oa movauaS4 rate. lit dSOLiIISi.ly, Lieu gavisprity unsit would lov
    a11luwUd Lu muv$u while cthe nospriori~ty Unit wuld uitporiuace dogradvid mevouL Or isauna. at all.
    AiutLhur ajiLuMLLIuS pRUUMUIatS41 dUMoando UPOe thu traaapOrtatlue flyastumi In rUfUJ;Ue Lraffif:. '11am
    impact of WWIIK current Inability to address routing conflicts is difficult to ascertain.
    At a minimum, the tumult is Overly optimistic movement rates when amultiple unit moves on the
    6MUm VWuLU Qre COOnaIdUrud.
    F. Uugrisdamiun of the transportation system ovur time Is not depicted In MTN. In actLuality,
    asvenues of advance do have limited capacities which degrade over time. Kechanixed unit
    cusmmandurs would certainly attest to the importance of this consideration. In the Iflinty
    buisn"riUO addruassod by JIM, tis factor should ba isddreuai at luout pisramutrivially.
    L I. ltumgendat.igas/Goncluveions (Movement)
    A. Tim genural aepproachs towards movement in Will Isi realistic in light of the purpose find
    s)SLutO uf KIN. To unable KMN to be rast-runaiso uesy tu use, iafld glubiol lit nrala'; NIN dv-
    Picts muvitmeuot Leoa gresn fashion using the appronLmtLoiw Iuctsusud. Other neu rusulisto
    modulu depict movesment of units through roadi nutworku composed of nodes aned arcs, across
    actual Lurruan data, or both. Kovement can bu modeled with greater fidolity using this
    aoiaech. but osuche is&saproiachs with KIN Would hI' proleiL&IVU With ruspiei to 4amepislar MSIur-
    ar~eipacw. runuar LIMo CeSSUiksLs, end osuea ul ousrat Los. thuts, LIM W IsIosLimvmtl
    museaultsia approach mhevultl Ito ruta lisud anud aefsiswd au addrumue bulow.
    u. It tu tucumowadud Lust KiN Ito uodoilud Lu al luw 'Micro fiiew m~Wer uaastmakkui:.Lju
    Ay Lim usur (as discussed Its I.D.).
    G. It it. rucuummunflud cleat M71 addroess rouit hal- 4ut11 . IC LS .and trallwporLOLI1
    junsy1VI LWsi,1';1-
    diAL&Ia its a paramtrc f ashilon (as discussed lit t.K. anld V.).

    B10
    SUUKOUTLNlE VALUF.
    INTURDE Time duiLy between requestinu and receiving LIUINT I hour
    all a hux.
    UNCi Tonnage of other supplies required to emplace I ton
    minafield
    HMANUVK Dasmae to a un t for entorint a minofield, 3Z
    nuclar-ontaminsad hex lox
    cbse. or bio-ontaminated hex 252

    MAM1RUVKi Delay causud to movling unit,, ror entering a Random number


    mIlnur told butwuum 2-.4 bru.
    nucloar-contaminatod bux (, 5 EV I. S)*i1iXSII'
    10
    oh.. or bLo-eontaoit"od hx 4X31Z
    (2 to 4)L.

    National Blue probability of detection 752


    Intel idOutifimatme 75X
    Red probability of detection 752
    idon tific4t o 752
    Interval betWeen Natonal ln~elligenco
    report
    vlue 12 hours
    Red 12 hours
    Time delay of detection to theater oemmander
    lIue I hour
    Rod 2 hours
    All Aircraft avali lity first 3 days s0x
    after 3 days 602

    AlINO. Time betwe unit sorties for mission planing, I hour


    rearming and refuelUtS
    Damage to target per aircraft sorteo Varies vich A/C type
    Oulay to target due to air attack 15 minutes
    AL1I0 Dasage to aircraft passing over enemy unit
    clear day 52
    night or adverse weather 32

    VIMIEST Time between volleys on same target 3 mLn./tube a-ctllery


    6 hrs./rockeu or
    missiles

    ANNKX C

    1. mgvemnt funacione In RIn

    A. Ali t td Ie thu dasta structure XIILailsto


    p $s (Annw 5), MM duts iut uxl aeptLty mudOl is
    couniven&Suna red sWLwurk with nodo and aires. Movement Ltos noit conducted auJtnK risads or
    avenves of advance, but ratluar frem hes to inox. Specifically, a variable called TJUNP spoc-
    (Le when a visit wilL "Jump (rum it.. prveesnt hux to Is net hex. litaccordance with tho
    Limissr. msclessitm deutilcd lIts Assa A
    A, rH ift'iodLfesLly coamuu;rou TJUHI' with tlso battLu tiomu,
    P
    iTllK. I T.IUHi' .sI i tit-M
    ts ihaNK, ton tii. tmbv.musit tu ths iaca it niodl TIUMI nrt ** lesi-
    I .4 4-l4 se#d fte#4 1 (d r I I Is.i lw Il fill Jamns.

    Is. ll. l34fl.,t 4tle. 1. [nlserunt lit this movemelnt process is tIhe routinK mrhtism.
    To dvtuLrmts muvumunat patlo, MM wfus a obsirtvot path approxim.tion tochiittc. TIIN appruxt-
    iuats1 msUi
    wa.elIsoll V48s, I tie imgudad movomolt r it, smvo out or the, isroucst Iox asti IIs11t, 411
    .imlja-
    t sl% li I It L 1, elu' geedeell l Ii inaL siI
    sd pm.vmeslll LseLI .Ij las:oalthil Lt ti' hIna I hsi tit I|f I l ls
    mui. This calcuLation is performod for at husses adjacent to tiha curruat hux. Tht' ed.im-
    uasL tat rundurin8 the smallest approximate movumlont time (IFSr) i dehtsint c am cho nox
    isua. This pre
    'edse is perfomet for aak -jump until the unit reaceis ito dulmtllies hsux.
    Tin- impdeid mivumenL tIme taMe info .a uutdcrontuwrainement :renatreits aucis Ih da y/litiL,
    wvotnler, mauiVim unit speed, hex torraLin uixoalsa tion. and prusenco of barruurs. Thme usalm-
    peded movement Cle Is orely the tam to traverse a straight line distance from one ox to

    B9
    MAX SP'-W, crova country (15Q0 kWph)
    SUPPLY STATUS, 10 cLassus, 3A, A (1. whort ton*)
    KAX CARRY CAPACITY (000. short tons)
    Air Fur.v .rLtiLury, mLswlLu, iond naval gun uLtei atNo possess.

    PLKC WT UAIWAG, per full strength volley (1Z)


    MA"K. was (M. miles)

    ALr furcu Unit alaM pu*Vms#S

    NJ SMU 0W AIRCRAFT (72)


    TYPS OF AIlUl
    CA (F-)
    ASK PKKU (100-knots)
    b. Tiu ult rupreusntato sa mhtloULoy used in WrN is accuptable. Nuels duucrLptor to to-
    prevented in memory by a suparate storage vector which contains a particular 1oscriptor
    voLue (or every unit being played. Yeo exampl, lw SPBD vector looks as follows:

    MPMMI) (Unit is Unit Is ... , Unit 300).


    (KMN Ls currently diumensoned (or a inAiUM of 300 units.)

    C. Theu UwiL %LrentLhi (VOlTS) id tWQhhbAld (UiVA) variables attempt to ds:rLbe Om


    f ahting capabLility of a matt. DBicu"eloe with PIA analysts indicace that a third factor
    uOvsrLbing a unit' state of trinijg should be Included to properly describe and compare
    units. Additionally, expansion of the unit descriptor's should Include lethality and vul-
    nerability considerations. Ths will. be discused In Annex D, MdOIL of Land Combat.
    U. AdditLuina unat descriptors coo easily be Included. For example, Hr. NoCintir.luau r@-
    cently included a watt ereanta;coa descriptor which allows for differentiation buwen (ren-
    tal and flanking actions.
    V. AddtLlionAL DuLO MauIrmOets

    A. Addic iol data requiremeons, extracted with permission fros MTN Docouotato (efer-
    once 3). are os follows

    VACTUK, riatui of battle Lima to real LM


    Z OL.UM/KKU W( 10 JANNOI
    PRUIAULLITY OV RAIN, ch 6 bour pur ted of( day
    PROIKALI.ITY OF OG* euch 6 hour porled Of day
    SUNRIBUSUM169r
    PHOSA SITY 01 DOV TICT)ON, by airraft under day/ nhlgt, ceeor/now, to&/ralun
    conitions
    AHM/POL COSUMTION MATVS
    Tons of amoo per full strength artillery volley
    Tons of POL per hex moved by a unit
    Tuna uf P01 per aircraft sortle
    Tu.am ef ause per aircraft sortie which f Leus
    i:KX SMLZK - in mies
    UXJMT SUPPULS - Tetusagm of auch clas of suppliwe (VOL, oamu, and other) in Red
    sand Mslev tlwhutr wupply depot*. :.
    UCLVAK ANO CIWMICAL PilK VNIO M - InLtIal permius~on grioniLtad or nwt girl llsad h r Md
    and *lou forces.
    b. Thcrs are curtali data assumptions lembaddud in the modL which cane be cliungud by MTH
    prwraummurs as bettor data becomes available. fTlaeu embedded acturs, uxtractud wilh per-
    *hlsiiUls rrm K(uturvescu e 4sre ism follows

    faUMMUUTIh YM.NMWIVu VAI.UK


    i6WAK urs uL rudWe messg
    ust trafirlc siturcuptoa
    Slow
    Medu 52
    SZ
    Rod 52

    FLAUKU Timu dulay butwous requesting and recivLig artillery 15 minu ues

    B8

    '. *.. I,
    C. As mentioned, each hex also has a barrier code associated with It. Input to FIRST is
    simllar to the terrain input. FItRT then builds a Ml array for input into HTN. garh hex
    biarrLur qudu hfla tix digit*, one digit being associated with each side of the lx. Th. .un-
    vQ.,CLu11 u6ud ruprusUnts the North side by the lot digit continues clockwisu auquentlilLy.

    For uxample, a barrier code 111311. Indicates that the south hex boundary has a code of 3,
    while all other sides have a code of 1. Barrier codes currently utilisod by MTN are as
    foLlows:

    I - No Barrier 4 - Road
    2 - River 8 - AT Ditch
    3 - bridged River 9 - Impassable

    ALL ihuxuo not spucifiud are in tialised with it barrier code of 111111.

    D. The only effect that these terrain and barrier codes play in TH tIs to degrade or fa-
    cilitate movement through the use of movement factors aesoclaged with each code value. As
    HItLUd Ln Annex I. Mr. McClintic plans to unpack the barrier codes to allow for bettor rose-
    Lution andl asier manipulation of thee values. Additionally, it is recommended that the
    effect of terrain and barriers on other combat functions besides movement may be considered.
    For example, the effect of artillery in a wooded hex t different from in a clear hex.
    Similarly, tite elevation of a mountainous hex affects the capabilities of units tn adjacent
    non-mountalsnous hoxes. Therefore, Inclusion of WVN of appropriate resolution terrain in-
    CLuences should be investigated.

    E. The hexes are combined to form overlays for existing maps of appropriate scale. A hex
    coordinate system assigns letters to east-west positions and mmbers to north-south pot-
    tLona. Thus, designation of the location of a hex consists of a latter/uber combination.
    A complete description of this map terminology is contained In Reference 2.

    Note that each column of hoxes contains only odd or en numbers. Consequently, numerous
    encode and decode operations are necessary to convert from hex terminology to the TSR and
    lIAR 4rray Locations.

    F. The hex composition described above is contained in the "detail ap." MTH also possess-
    am a "big map." Whoreas the detail map usually represents a theatre level area of oora-
    cLone, the blK mop represents a much larger geographic sector which encompasses the detail
    wisl,. all: mai boeat rupresont a significantly Larger area tian the more resulutu deiaLil mlp

    G. With respect to computer storage, the TSR array currently has 41 columns and a variable
    number of rows dependent upon the size of the big map. These rew are partitioned with I
    thruugh 54 representing the detail map and rows above that represent the big map. When per-
    forming computations Involving both big map and detail map coordinates, conversion routines
    (81GSHI. and 51IJ$I) are utilisod.

    ii. The big map/decaiJ map concept io suporb. It allows for gamLng of long distanc: "m-
    tWilabLLILy and umpLoymnt considerations white concurrent theatre operations are being
    conducted.

    it. Although WTH has been primarily used to model theatre level operations, there Is am
    inherent reason why Kruatur resolution hoes with corroapondingly resolute units could not
    e ruprVuulutd. At thu extreme, thut hxos could be 1O mtrs acrus Lnstad of 1O miles
    across with an individual soldier representation rather then a division or corps unit
    representation. Certainly care-must be exercised to insure that the modelina aigorithms
    (glnrL.ulinrly uasritlueo) roamsm approprtl.t, ie.r LirO unit resolution, We tis varLablu ratt.-
    lilkiaull rimLuiru of / dusIN Uigithaneu thme ipoelrtlu of appl.tat onst. per lit,tnumt. it (ditL-
    rultiuing Wil with Uh1h ruolutLun could providet uxculiunt "sand raible" riinnr. u
    for imall
    ull cvummaimedeurs..

    Ill. A. Unit rupresontstii data requirement" for WHI are explained fulLy Lit £a-fur-M1
    Essuntially, evury unit on the battlefield will possess the following descriptors (examples
    givae La
    titirunthuuus) :

    to (BLUX, 148)
    'riy'K (XV.MSIVA.KD)
    NAW. (3RD U IN(C) DLV)
    sax1.(US-D IV)
    POSITION (AA 59)
    STRI CTR, relative (6.0)

    B7
    . .. .. .. . ...
    VLL.. Ab eanionud, a Cali; betvue batle Lima 461d iuCa Lis
    time. Used in OLnurCOLSIV IIOw 1m0
    to incremenc baccle ims. This ratio to input by the controller who can chungse It at aty
    t omt.Sy chanling the racto, the cooroler can adjust the ties pressure on the RID and
    LuaM.
    bl.UKI spued tip durLng period* sof Laactivity teo minimLz plityur Idle time., md esluw
    uvuwi durLng Liu ur majur voumh4#L to aclow for ioute,tLuroughC iummitad anI 161,41171rde1 lIis.

    mNmNX Is- WhN DATA MMQUIMtKIGKNTI AND mTuLcrU.K


    I, IJ~lLiJlwis.

    A. As mntiuned previou.ly, WIN poseasts an anciLlary data base buildini program (turmed
    IRST) whichliruacly faciiltatan construct on or tiw data base. F1INT Intoractivuly ques-
    u i ieu
    !.Lllo siterruvllr .i*rlinle baerr
    dlill- W L vr1e r. $siltS
    I" * 14ie
    %,Lhur *lihi' I *i l eII e I.hIIIiti5I&
    iiuudud Lu u.uraLu MiTH. VJST' LIIUiO 0iUdU gtLssnitier Inputs, lot v sysitst veeeehtifsee
    Way
    smil.tui Iats
    dILU (LieU WdsLCh will. b uuud by JIM. 'If Ue dVl~iVuNl it uXUrULOu 46 Pruvtneuly vuliairus.ud
    duta base, ue uf VUST Lu eeoc necuuary.

    i. KIlth lima Iia a Lurrulin cu e and a barrler ,'siiv aeusaiaLud viLh it. .t.,.Vilgture 4 fsar ai
    grapheLc duplctle et tl 14171Terrain MeprusunLaLittn. Tim. Lurrlin usis Lca is unt diL cue.-
    u
    lour ruprusueti Lisu terrain cauaificatesitun particular Ihus.
    LIMICet Vo mausuo Lnput,
    FItT auLLuwa chio evur tU Untr a particular cude fulo.d by all leveseeU with chat vaIlue.
    FIKT lhen buLldso a TVA array ,- (vasl colt ruepreeuntin a hux) which Le utsud by MTN. Ti..raist
    ,uau% arm urryllLJY I.t.Hr .deflit MICl u may"
    O11ull.ld .+.- ,,, 171-W. -, I- Ughvtr Iv'r-

    Ot hux.

    All ieoxew nut specified are initialised with a terrain code of 1.0.

    LU TERRAII RI[MSENTATION
    6

    108

    * p A

    93 INPASSASIK.

    5MB.~LZD AncDgF.)
    21 ii NAR

    48 RIOAD
    I TDITch

    91 I"ASSAIL.

    A ., 66 ., 00.

    *YARIABILE HEX REOI.UTION


    *DETAIL WP/8I6 AP

    B6
    .44

    I1U~ 2.

    R06IU&EII
    IT

    MNTIIM CON13N

    NATL

    THE VALUE OF FACTOR IIETERIINES, Tilt NEAL TIHE/ATTI.E TINE RATIO,

    *SY CHANGING FACTOR. THE CONTROLLER CANl SPEID UP/SLOW DOW Hill.-

    V~spwc 3.

    B5

    W
    I.'Wso MC buirm. W AS), iWe ALLObcl, and K
    dUrLieon, Air as#uv |to14lds1aIfI&W Ilafiar ias MV'
    ga Umudeld by To model surge rate, aircraft availability Is liuid at 0 fur 1,d19
    dM. II-sL
    5 4yrcaot Combat, and it falls to 602 theroaf tar. Ae-co-ground. grou d-t-air, and air-Lu-
    ai combat are simuulated for every air mission. Tito capability to attack roads and bridges
    ca limL enemy maneuver io built Into tim ide].

    ArL.LLury fLru Irum Army ad Navy guns 1. simu~istud. The mAxLmum ralsu to( lv I Ire N661-
    ;,urL unit Lis ciuckud to make suru the wapotw can reacha the target cuordintus buor'u Ohu
    iaib.Lcu Lu firud. Lf thu targut is beyond Wit rarillu of the weapun, tiw order Ln iaplorud
    a8nd tit% ruquustl n cummdur is so informed. if tIIU firlitas unit dous nlit Iev ull ltsint
    -.gtsauLiun, it (truto until It runs out, and tiw c mamsndur is informeld thati I, lwt asUiapud
    f'ritia buc.ausu u" is lack uf amuitlion. A 15-mi.auto delay butwuvit ruquuusting artillury 'irv
    iAsa cucuiviaU rh Lrst round os ite tarbet Is assumed. A 3-minuto delay betwuun vuJluys an
    Lits saie turbot Is assumed for tube artillery, sid it takes 6 hours to rolund missile and
    rueukwL. lausacaiures. ''huuu smumura etuc uss
    v i|ly be tloatipp.td vi ls Inti|t* mot|le1. I 1 sa .alI ii h6ry
    uaLL La glvuit a iiuw mltussioa bu'asru It lie cum)Iutted Liu |pruvLutin mlitiu.si, itI. lrit I Irlsiti-
    us iltu slow targut ftur It cumpLutuu thu currtt mtinlual . ur st-ouricu mia;1litas sand
    ruckutai 4ru truatud the uanu sis atillery, but wiLlh i lUsagur maxi.mum rang, diffurult per-
    cant dasmage per voLley, anl a longer time between volleys.

    NucLuar, biLglicaL, and clemricl WMapon capabilities areU built Lnto K. i'rmlsaslo for
    uch side to use nuclear or biological aen chemical weapons must be granted by the war game
    contrulLers by using the control subroutinu. I u aforce calls for a nuclear or biological
    &and tzlumlusal attack on a specified coordinate, and permission has boon granted ly OW 4n01s-
    LruLlurw, Lhuw attack execution time ts a function oaf ti delivury mon.. (aircrafL, .artil-
    Lury, wismilu, utc.). Use of dirty or persistent nuclear or chemical rounds QcsacsamLautav"
    that hux for a curtain length of timm; however, noncontaminating rounds may be spociflud
    ;in Chu urdur, tn which case, no coatamnation results. Boch forces are notified that a
    nuclear or chemical and biological weapon has been detonated in the specified hex. Any
    uLL unturing a contaminated he will suffer a prudaoermined percent loss and i significa at
    Linu deiay ullruutu through the hox. Vviry hur Lihit a unit remins Iii a contuaiantud he
    will result in additional losses.

    LV. MTH cunsists of a main program (MIN) consisting of 56 subroutias and functions, an
    ,siaaut/uuputprogrum CLOPROG) which allowV simultaneous input/recuLpt of in(rmation of red,
    blue, and controller participants; a data base (WARCDATA) which contains terrain, barrier,
    unit and miscellaneous infonmtion; and an ancillary data base building program (FlRST).
    Figure 2 depicts the relationships among these major MI components.
    V. A utquu advantage of MM MAIN Is ItsLotmil meucluminelm. A uemmon type of o Iwlu Itll I is
    a time-- tp simulation Ln which time jumps by a vurtain amount, all of the battle (ustuiws
    * .are i~e(rurm d, time jumps autlwr atup, and uO u44. MIW differs frem this approach sand unio
    * a Limu-drivus tuchnlque.

    L 1'1's timu-driven technique, time Is incromweced (Subroutine INCRST) within reach of


    cne major subroutines depicted in Section 5 of the flowchart. For Instance, when the COKIIAT
    bubruutlnu is caLled, COKIAT in turn calls INCIKE to update the battle time (STIN). INCRYT,
    in Lura, Lnds orut what the actual time Ls and incremoents battle time by an amount calculated
    umng thu curruit ratio of battle time to real Ciae. Then the COMIAT subroutisne is cxur-
    %;&bdLu ruulve all outt adtng attrition related calculations. Tit program thaun uxW. ti
    *. IUAT bubruutiawm and entCer the .OCIST subroutine, vhlch utillauos INCUIT tu
    t liacrVMesaL tli
    ,4iLLIM tie aiLa. THMMAIN Willi equottally procued "througlh all of Lat subroutines until
    C- 1l1AT i uturud again and all attrition calculation requirements occurring sisaeu the last
    mitrUaae JISaoCOMAT vll i be purorumod. Many otheor subroutine will be utillud ly thu -.,s
    litovsl its VLiguru 3. Vur umlOWU, Lte MANKUVWI sclasisag is as foLoWs.:

    * MALUVKK

    NUVNXT
    TKAVVI G
    IMEWVAI(
    SH1.S IU

    Vi. "'ilm Lus flow between IMiK and the ialayars occurs continuously.
    .Lmmu"licst llhis is' i
    usltluu advanta o( KM facilitated by tei IOQIIU(; Ile manipulation sarrsan4emLs'nI. Meiay war-
    * ll.a4uu UhW IseAL-UVUiit pVVCedures 1i WhIaCI uUurs cll only Sntor ordurm durlln U curt.1se ildindiub.

    B4

    I IJ M A W.
    I _ . n i Ili _ -- 1 g-___ m

    * %" .I I" l --1 . . - -


    4.t;. IJUULI. UVKKVtkrW (uxtrucvud withi purulaauti I~rum Kulurunct: L). TheloHVtI~inLIV TIOV-11,iv
    'dlw~a duvulopuII around the dilsvum shown its Viaguru A - Tivintor CwAndrs sLur(facu.
    MwuL
    ".hu itums ciArcled in Viguris A arm Included in MN. Thiose not circled aire not yet slauilacud
    uy Chu model, but could be added as a h modal evolves. The paragraphs below' examine much
    o(t Chu functional systems In i'liuru A atiartialn with ctu umlionuvo system and Ailing v.jtwkwiast.
    4Ut Liu scapabolitius .and Live ii~vitaatons, or iovi
    I % covured is, thiu. .weL Lean.

    THEATER COMMANDER'S INTERFACE


    WITH HIS FUNCTIONAL SYSTEMS

    itsur A.-u

    Uander the manauver systems any *s*a ground combat unit may be handled by the model.* Part
    eaf Chu data Input for each unit toIs M~.aximusm movesment speed. When a unit Is told to move
    Cream point A to point 5, any movement speed up to Mind Including itas Maximo movement Speed
    may be speiid. if no speed io spociftod In Clio order, or It the specified speed in
    .Cw.LUr LOwn 1114 uLLt'O Maaximum speed, the uni, It, moved its fns. n piossiblu. Ti,-rraies and
    s.rriursi affctn all g round musvtunas. Terrains sucli it mountaLti, forunits, andl s Iw
    oitiv
    kuvuuulL lay tiny faa.Luc upacifLud La: tile liput daetit. Sumu muuoaClo ay be wourmo lt obnua~.a-
    4sA il& ULeIICrti. Iturriuru uuch as rivurs, brtdl~ugd rkvurv, antitank ditchos. and miasuriolda.
    quifraqku muvemuill. istsit. Up to alumw types of basrriers May be defined Ivy this inpuit ehita.
    Ku""sL arm Lrulatud as barriurs wicac tuaslly seqnt lt apvvement rathevr timins Imputh.' It. * L
    .&duktLian to irouund combat unitu, naval and asir unites or tiny site frum a blngLe vessel or
    4rura,A( up to CLoui or wins-p; cas6 be masuvurull toy OWN. Attack hauiceupturt; and tactivual
    ,AirJLttc arts itiudud M il Ode4#1L. AIaao ULIiLay I..'I iOPLCa Mild Lransport; Ul'iruralti4re peV-
    tattLed toU ULIriW or airdrop unsitas. AMd, Navy unitas coin soalift Atrmond units. Any batcLis
    u( fecA nut uza y a4cca&RitJd Jl* intas be ma11tUla 1Y i1lemesmie1,d by LIW tonosat rt Itibialraoni isat*-
    cISIC
    W6,06b #;is&pick Uji it untt and ptl I L %Iuwis allyw14r6 tils Lik 1Wmlls. or iti I i t anay simeiuat ill
    4"6it ally unlL.

    Misovl iuoldt. laid ahij c iu.11 I sa; U6 millufI ldu art: mode Ioil by KN. MInviaul do %:.isbot eai. avel
    Lea461y 1lsea Ctidt Ian..i ;A 111rouad U11u1 with searfi it auppliu to %sivqlass:. minus, providvd alit
    uALL i,#Anot currently ungeehlud ll 1griuad c'ombatL. Ales, fixeal-witi4 aircraft, twih iemptri,
    .ni.~avy unli tilt umaILacts usitufluldii. Artit &ury-tmi.lescud miasco ate smut currast ly iss tlw-
    twa., but, cussabeotiueutly asLwuiat1ud layusu~li- LhIM. 4atasitrul aubr7%Uet.- Lu ia1SaLUS1Ily CUiplactO
    *Lauriuids aelswiure s il gv Wills. IXu~adv aand br Ldjgen iori peart of LIec dua Lsjussl.; tI hy &%ill lie
    dueht..uyull by airurat Maid artille~ry ill ordor to lillow thu enoumy' a muvomuent. coni.'1.15callalst
    a" u e ruads or ba.Ldatus,

    B3

    -. ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I 11"
    ' I P- W *-V* .-..-
    ANi ANALLA&IL. W±

    Cadet h~ark ij Ln..er

    United Ltatea ?iitar Acadwm

    cl
    UL'-

    C2
    .Ance ita, creation, the 1 cL~inrzic ibeatiyriaul baA .eC~iVL
    wiebpread ube anu attention throuCghout the -vrmniy. 1,1 _- Po to a

    written iequv..t fzomr the _ojiaan , L~ I~r~iiy Aiar '.olleta ( &v .1 ovember 1984)

    the iiodel *ValiaiatiOn .rrOgraM (r,-.) 17." 'een inbtitutad at the Unizea ,tazti

    h'ilizarj ;-caLeaq.~ A
    &fe jprizary purxjo" o. -,x i6 'o a~li~t rLhu r. star
    ,ollere in )Lroviding model users with "conf iaence stateinent6" about Lhe

    outcouieL obtaineai fromt thoae models.


    At the United .. ates idilitary Acaiemy, zhe jviz will be bazed on two

    concurrtunt research effortsi. One effort, cona.uctea lb the x.eArTmenL of

    * aittov2j will focus upon the historical confiaience of *,'~he seonai


    cffort is being conoaucte± by the iiepartment of A.ngineerinW. which it; adrk-

    inf- Lhe Latietical confidence of iv


    hc. gjurd~obe of thisi project is to cAaino the combat Liubroutin.

    &Me £ ~auination has focusedj upon two areas of the combat ...ubroutinc. at.,e

    rea a the uLscripAve c~ the ~uii~i. ~ incluatid


    th( Lcvt..odaient of the aendritic-s for Lie 4ubroutinc arid Uit: atLovdcaiuLion

    of' thu irijutb and output-, of the subroutine to be &6nalzed- 'Adie econa.
    area of attention w" the anlybi of the :iubroutine Lhrou~h reereisBion

    techniques. ivl~o, through rzhib aruilA, a, f oundUation anfL~ biwic framework

    for the ana1l,_ of A~rny rnouaol- in~ W.; cod~1 Valiaut.Ion Co(.ram as reues~ted
    b4 the. A.rry i1ar L.ollef~e has been etetablisheu.

    C3
    ~rcrc.ulta of -the research arou .ivij.ti iato tnov L.-io area-- ) ' z~i~L.

    .Che first resultt; are~ the UrJtivE- a~az 0of trhc combat. -ulbrouzinE.
    major %;topin the analy;;L. of th. co*abL sbubrouLitie ;t", U.IL , r~aUIon Of

    the flow chart for the subroutine. -.L LL time. it i.z locievt." that this i:
    the 1'irbt flow chart of' an of the nu.iterouQ ,ubroutints uzea inl L*6An

    flOW E.hart ia.. contained in AflfeA A.

    ..he flow chartine. of the dubroutine has jrviieu in~ijhT._ into Lh(,

    input;- ui-,e; in the resolution of combat in F4A k..e factorb which ncl
    .itceraine the re-ulta of the combat incluLc. the duUjPly level of the unit
    in combat, whether a unit is staih(-a in a ;inea or contaminated hex,1 or
    whether a unit is out of eUL. 'i~ major factor-. which effect the rebultu

    of combat are the terrain which a unit occupicL anu. the time' thc unit Ila.
    c-n i 'i that location.

    ,Kl.o, the flow cheartine, of the sLubroutine haiL raisQU uome irydortan-r

    quetiontl= concernine the paxeameterm which are use~i in the ; ubrou.ine in


    orucr to rt2;olvLu combat. A unit will enter thve combat *ubroutine with an

    amount of iointa which reflcct th!e uidl wtrength- "'he pointE. bre then
    multiplica bi a t iADLi factor which L UCioalIt UyOna th. Lime, wteain,

    *am~ otbxr fac tr mentioncd above. enc- valu, of tbo £,LL


    f'ac toriswa
    rai;,e~ th. Lu ';ioiL.. Ill 1.. Lhv . factor .- ) foir u uiiit lioifl~ out of

    . L ani. what iriiact cAoeks it havt; on thm- results? ,hat impact :,.otli the Lim

    a unit i*i in jJoktion have on coabat rc. .ult: aflaj what imyact ao thz..r.U.L.L

    f"cor ~lJ.haeteC*~toror.. for .,e an", 1)luc; forcel Iiff~iint


    fTt'.W. amc Limic in a potIon'4 Tfhe~.. quc, tion_,, tLnouCJ out of Lfiu. !,CoA 0of

    In 04J
    thi.. project., nm&..L to ke aadrc.6"tu in fu'thuv' ua1,iz aaa
    aaly~siz. .enitivit analjiiL ohoulj. a1.io 'a-- conriuct.. oil Lh, attritior,

    rtA- coefficienft*~ u~ea in the cquaLior,- to calculat. 1c4 . &~ uto

    are basea on. tho, Lancheiter dquaru~ Lw.i.


    The :5LconcL a ;Xtt of the3 rorer.i-4L n na A5o ,i: ob

    aubroutine ouriuL2b. Ti-ii dortioni ofr r. ; .-tusj £c.ult(. II iwo accom:ylid1-


    in

    a.nu Arr a m~ethodol.ogy haz been eaabliz;,he~a which can bc u.''ui in

    furtth-r :.Luaicti in the A'oodil Validation ,rogran. he hooodI r.Cluo

    thuc~ rtation of aLacitional subroutinc,. which capture uata pointtb faoc the

    f--actors being studied. 2.hese subroutineu arev insertedi arouncL the coiaba.

    ,brour~ic. to capture the diata comng into the combat maodel ana1 to
    capture the re~aultQ cominf, out of zhe 'oubroutine. ;L copsY of LALI."

    the --rurouzine that captures uj~ta comin6 into the combat subroutfine, Ls

    r.onxlined in itflfu.x L. .Ln orderL fov tii subrout4itu to wor4( ~,10oo .er

    changezi to the model had to occur. iirst the r'ai.n subroutine hau to o,)-n

    .h,, wiata file.- which are written by the %".Lwelk'C and 'QTLki.ISV su bro utine i.
    ecora, the kMii uubroutine had to run the '~b"subroutine. *L'he control

    uubroutin. also had to be cliangeu in order that thte now aat filit. woula be

    acces;iiNle after they were written. And albo the WiUj4it,.~ compjuter -system

    hLto be aujui.tAvd to accept additional aata fik." for tliv id&. model.

    £.ext., once this u~ra fil8s ware ',C-nerateQ, a zasthod for analjtsis using

    Swas etAblLheu. Chi-- include. , Lh6 wricrin of an )ro~~raff and obtain&1


    initial ouzgut..
    ihe uecond accompliekuxcnt iva& tht. initial resultAe obtain2.a ' o~a Lnv

    -,w~ jricsw.e. het..e results, contained in .. nneA.~ indicate that Lh. LO:fnbpat

    xubrouXtin r. 'il t. am- what -houl.. be gte.

    C5
    ;n.. ct.;ac& h con uC-t.,;% a,., ail inic, al illU~ .i~~- V": ~ LI42

    the followixp:
    a vlow ctaurL. u abL~ _uui-ou~ini c&.i ue.Tion.,

    conuerninC )aram Lcrz

    b 17a~ ut~taoli~heu.~ fE~oo~~


    o-- Thta Leaci foc tri

    c) initi.al esultL5 obt~aineu frog ana1i.-zi of~ cLobat.

    uL) researchers~ quide for f'urtherz. analvcsi6. (~n

    C6
    Lio7
    1l

    Sflow chart for the combat zubroutine ih otal


    chart, nor Lo,. 1L arA.M to LO
    .int: ZL). 611 ~it'.' 6UU.LOULIC:.

    ;,tner, thL. flow 0-art. ibi a simjlt juiae to aiai LIC uzer a;6 k'. tne pxoceb L

    an4J mnijor f"Qo:.. whicuh Lvive thu r%. ul.LixiC cojil~r.


    ~n
    he i~t.paCee of the flow cnart, tkya Ae factor To noiAt; .i-- -6na.

    cormbat re-.olution i-. accompliahe~i cvc.ry two h0ur.C. A.LiarQn1, , L11iL; -Lir.IL

    fa.ctor i~ a mechianism used to achieve what is thoufhT To "be a realiitic

    rate Of' attrition anui combat.

    be nc~t Ae factors that shoul be anal~ wec are --ouna on pag~e uhtee
    o-" tnr. fflow' chart.. T~hu firit iG tht, criain £wtoL. Lelow i6 a tabl, which

    :,hows the terrain factor and it*~ cormiionding &e6UL, factor, wahich iki uzec
    irk .~.L'.~ii4(
    4 h -.. JnLlth of the unil % fov UaLLlu.

    lercain L'&Ctor UhUL,2 factor

    0)x
    0:5-"1.0

    311A ).0

    11oAt if a u...j.Lt I.,.ai l in a± hvt, tnc~n LfL LrLLi* Cacwor ib rxuucea

    60Av. hfld if a. unit, it, out of ;,, then the ;,.i A faitccor i6 "-,L±uce" ol
    ,%nothrir lk-' I'~ c1 Laiy "AuzniL ia inf jpo~iLioax. L.ioicu On Lho

    flow CharCt tthat thebe wUL-i factors~ for tiav- in josition .Liffz~c for- t he ... .j

    afl!J. -luc "~~aaw. j.hi:. may bc- an cCfO CL Lo muIOcl~ ut Avr4 -T.. in Lh!: .."c L

    i;6bilit to con .truct "e±'ca.ive jicIronw.


    l&&1..c. i.AC(. of Lb.. floQw chm~ia..~ illuaLuzt; ujo. a~mr jj~iL- Lcii*L zajI1
    be- con,-"Lcxvii'r- i%; that the time. in io~irion foc botln i..; ail zvcr-

    07
    afotfu .1al Lhe uni;L&. on the - ajuc jnTvoivtu in LhaL u t.

    ... cond,, LhcU Lqju&tioflnt u(A wK


    A) utrmiflnefl
    Um &~ I>) r 'Lo

    &rc 13~t(I on01tht. li.-t , agc of tht: flow~ chart. iv. e~ionz; 4. avoi

    the loanhcat' r :,qucxr lawi. .2he ii~r...c~Of Lil(':,. ( uariori.. liz; thf-e con:..tunt

    attrition coefficcnT.L azin~ 6.!u' Uf ,

    C8
    M 11.
    .........

    ofttw'sWm 4fW A~ hfsom~ Odf boxW

    DeNeowws *1..M is A tA4

    * ~cNxTA (a ASZ4~cmr mg=) ~Au

    09
    I..g *,p.

    * -

    4Afeu

    "a ame

    010

    **~~~**~vo -V .~.* a O~m A. #ACV"-.


    I n.'.

    - I . - -- - -- - -- - -- --- -- o w - " -- -

    33.0
    T*V TMI A Afl~noH. MN

    $Luc
    WM 3'N musuu~vg
    #Ofn

    0111
    44

    -~~~0 . -- - - IF AM

    wr ft.iUrN~tV 76

    .03

    012
    Atnnex 1i-is a co4~ of the subroutine X(.*±± '-'hizi zubroucirt2 6 W~rittEcn
    to capture eu. ~xi~A
    u&L inr.- couinL, inw.- L'ii(. cui,.LL L.uW.ouLine t.i dwrLtc,

    these data j)oiflL1 to ai -eatc,. aata f'ile. 1±he firtt ,;o.1ction o2' The

    .ubrouti~r 1i.: LZtic -oauiton bloQ,. Ihe t-uoroutitu onlj Ui inforiation


    Lo tr aata 'Ilc, f or thobe units that are in combat.

    .Lhc ua~tua filt nuzib~Lox'


    fic. i'; j1- 2ho univac , -Lvi.A wi.ll now
    dIlow Ui) To 36 aata file s tucture to be attached tro iZ
    ihc: -,ubroutird- that capturtes data .oinlt&,i cominC out
    UT oL thL cou0jiaL
    ~.ubroutine ib calle:d U-i& This :ubroutime i;5 called from the~ combat

    ftrir.ce;. to &.norhcr aata file.


    .dxurL L . otik jloblvn with the Aa Lubroutine that maj4 L). i.a--il,
    ;orrectcai which time did not permit belfoxvthand. .Aznjil4 move the call
    -taL4mrnnt klrior to the Ltatemen& callin6 6ubroutineii Lfizojca or'
    Athhdcaw.- hiz will c rtatec a data f ilf iuenti*I4 to thi; filc crt a E, b,

    C13
    )MMON /UN IT /NLIN IT (NBI), NAME CNFE-J) UN ITT P (NBU), U;\Ul ( E
    IS (NB')) , ART IME (NBU ), PERa:NT Lf NT'- (NF)l-
    T~. ) -, , ..
    T'STIRI( NBU.)) , EWEIEST CNBU ) ,NSD-*.EC-;r '( r,~i3) , .IOIPjFB JF~ F. U

    *SEArI CNBU) , ATYPE (NBII) , F:;F-,*ORT (TH ~IES


    'UBTYP(CNBUJ) 7 SIZE CN41BI), TCDEPEFZO%( N..!), FCN ,
    *UPPLY((NBIJ1 NSP), AIR4-FT (NBU ) r -. rrr { ;:
    ISFIRE(NBU),~ORIENT(%NBU)

    ~WJAME'7 EW I NTR , EW T l'IT Di, F'L.tC.a.N , . ~ (bI.*~ .. ~ :~1


    IJCBLLI, NLIC:R ErI, I C:HEM, I HFM R v E: If~T, WX ,WXF4~
    'RA IN ( 4), PDr'CLR, F'DDFO:3, PDDR(AN, FrNC:l-., F~lIF!F:T--- 5..
    IMEL , T IML ST , T IML CO, BLUIN1A T , RF:X'I,, PKI , IrI NI ErT-;
    q7 F 1"A 7;, 'JI
    NATPA 7 RNAI III, RNAiTFI, RNA'ffPD, RN~ M
    , P1ITP' rNi7
    )
    (RAYC30
    *.NUCH, EWC.HO, Nl.$CHO -,UN)' CH, , LEO--L (1)~O~t.
    I0E'ECL( t2M ,COMBL( 12Q-)

    IARACTER*2 EW, EWI3E!4;T, EWFI.RE, EW-V':',U:"


    XT*,-EW -ii,rn L:
    IARAC.T'ERk40 -UNITCL,DIAYNIT, ATTAC.K
    IARACTER*9 SLIBTYP7 SIZE
    IARACTER*7 ATYPE
    IARACTER*:--: WX
    fARACTER* 10) UN ITTP, POSTIJR
    iARAC:TER k 1 NAME
    ITEGER BATTLE ( 30, 30) ESCORT, i;xRl*T (34
    '01 CAL WARN
    50 K2i , NBU
    (E'CLOCK.LT.BATTIM) GOTO 99
    (P0*=.TLR (V-.*).NE. C:OMBAT )OCTO 5.0

    ZITE(31, 11 )BCLOCK,ARTIME(K)

    )RMAT( 2F5.0)
    )NTINUE
    'TURN
    ID

    C14
    ..
    *~.jIJ,> v '
    Licit assumption in the MTM figures is that the unit would
    Ln contact for the entire period and not withdraw at a
    mined threshold value. As can be seen, if attrition is
    to continue for equivalent time periods, MTM actually attrits
    ter force more rapidly. The basic SAGA comment is still valid,
    re research and validation is required on the attrition
    and parameters of MTM.
    Make artillery assessments sensitive to the vulnerability
    :arget engaged. No change.
    Make artillery assessments sensitive to the lethality of
    Ltions used. No change.

    Make unit thresholds mission dependent. The thresholds in


    IG are not mission dependent. As in MTM, time in a hex is used
    it the advantage of the defender. The AWCWG has incorporated
    :hreshold decrement due to time in combat. The threshold is
    Lcally raised 5% for every 24 hours in combat. The threshold
    7educed by taking a unit out of combat for rest and recuperation.

    Convert from threshold to breakpoint terminology. No change.


    Include close air support and interdiction dependencies upon
    rulnerability and weapon lethality. No change.
    Use metric convention with all distance measurements. This
    ias been accomplished in the AWCWG.
    Allow free form input to FIRST data initiatization routine.
    G has made great strides in improving the user friendliness of
    .re model. Both unit and terrain data bases are input from a
    ven display which is self-explanatory and extremely easy to use.
    il also incorporates several consistency checks on the input data
    insure correctness before the actual wargame will run.. The
    oortion of the wargame is also very user friendly with a menu
    nteraction with the player. Once the player selects the type
    nd or action he wishes to input, that command is displayed
    ill in the blank format.
    Include additional terrain/barrier effects in MTM. Listed
    e the terrain and barrier effects modeled in MTM and the AWCWG:
    Combat Movement Rate
    Multiplier Multiplier
    MTM AWCWG MTM AWCqG

    1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0


    2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0625
    3.0 1.10 Small 0.33 0.95
    1.25 Medium 0.85
    1.5 Large 0.25
    is 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0625

    D4
    . Conduct additional research on attrition equations, in either
    nsure that boundary conditions (annihilation and disparate force
    ) are properly dealt with. Below is an extract of the AWCWG
    's Guide which details that attrition equation and parameters
    o model ground combat.

    )und Attrition Fo=mula. The outcome of combat is determined by the combat


    :ios of the forces engaged and is expressed in attrition to each side
    Z of loss to red and blue).
    r
    :R - Combat Ratio (Blue to Red of Red Co Blue)
    'RA a Combat Ratio Adjustment:
    R Red Combat Power

    ;R(B) a Combat Ratio for Blue - Blue Combat Power

    'R(R) a Combat Ratio for Red Blue Combat Power


    Red Combat Power

    .RA - Combat Ratio Adjustment

    FORMULA; Unit Loss - 1% X CR X CRA


    kMPLE OF COMBAT RATIO ADJUSTMENT EFFECT ON % OF LOSS

    CR X CA - TOTAL LOSS IN %

    1.0 : 1.0 1.0 1.0


    1.25 1.0 1.25 "1.55
    1.5 : 1.0 1.5 2.25
    2.0 : 1.0 2.0 4.0
    3.0 : 1.0 3.0 9.0
    4.0 : 1.0 4.0 16.0
    5.0 : 1.0 5.0 25.0
    6.0 : 1.0 6.0 36.0
    7.0 : 1.0 9.0 63.0
    8.0 : 1.0 9.0 72.0
    9.0 : 1.0 9.0 81.0

    ition to the total loss % above, the odel generates a random


    which alters the total loss % by + of its value. The
    intention of the change in attrition "modeling was to amplify
    trition rate in a disparate engagement of large forces against
    The above equation must be modified for the differences in
    time increments when comparing AWCWG and MTH attrition. Below
    me comparative results:

    R AWCWG Loss % PITM Bde (6 hr) Loss MTM Div (12 hr) Loss

    0 1.0 8.73 16.7


    D 2.25 13.2 25.7
    0 9.0 26.7 52.7
    0 36.0 53.7 100.0
    0 81.0 80.7 100.0

    . : > . . - . .
    D3
    . :< / . . . < . - i
    ' , - .... .. .
    -ill G~ il lllli'll ili I. II
    B. Combat multipliers for flanking operations. This recommen-
    n has been adopted in two instances by code and one by controller
    vention. If a unit is moving and is attacked on the flank or
    its combat strength is permanently reduced by 50%. If a unit
    ubat is attacked from the rear, i.e. surrounded, its combat
    gth is reduced by 50%. If a unit is attacked from the flank or
    the controller can intervene and increase the combat strength
    • attacking unit to portray the surprise and advantage of its
    tion of attack.
    C. Scramble Defensive Counterair (DCA) aircraft to engage
    rating aircraft. The emphasis of the air war modeling in the
    is considerably different than in MTM. MTM models a very
    led individual aircraft war while AWCWG aggregates to the air
    level. Specifically, a percentage of aircraft are allocated to
    CA mission by the players. Every 24 hours of battle, the
    t strength of attacking bombers and the DCA fighters are
    to a homogeneous Lanchester Equation to determine how many
    rs penetrated the DCA cover. The Lanchester parameters are
    ntly adjusted so that evenly matched air units would suffer
    attrition and an additional 3.75% of the bombers would be forced
    vert from their mission. DCA is only computed for those bombers
    king airfields. Combat Air Patrol aircraft are allocated and
    ed in a similar manner. The CAP Lanchester parameters are
    ach that, in an evenly matched battle, the bombers would suffer
    ttrition and an additional 15% would be diverted.
    D. DCA over a unit (aircraft carriers). As noted in the lasL
    raph, CAP aircraft would assist in protecting an aircraft
    or, however, DCA is currently only modeled for airfields.
    E. Inclusion of capability for user to input macro or micro
    ng instructions. No change.
    F. Parametrically address routing conflicts and transport
    n degradation. In the AWCWG, if two units move through the same
    Imultaneously, their movement rates are degraded by 75%. As the
    moves units, it attempts to avoid moving two units simultaneously
    ;h the same hex. There is no parametric modeling of transport
    a degradation.
    ;. Utilize adversary dependent attrition factors. The AWCIG
    zes a homogeneous Lanchester Equation derivative which does not
    Lminate as to the types of adversary units in ground combat.
    ir model does discriminate between fighters and bombers, but
    etween types of each or weapons carried.
    R. Tune the current attrition equations by altering the attrition
    r, rather than increasing the battle time. Although the attrition
    Lon has been altered, the battle time increment problem has been
    vated in the AWCWG. The battle time increment depends on the
    al counter size: 3 hours for battalion, 6 hours for brigade, 12
    for division, and 24 hours for corps. MT14 increments every 2

    D2
    DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING
    UNITED STATES MILITARY ACADEMY
    WEST POINT, NEW YORK 10996

    -F 21 June 1983

    RANDUM FOR RECORD


    ECT: McClintic Theatre Model Enhancements in the US Army War
    College War Game
    REFERENCES:
    a. The Joint Chiefs of Staff, Studies, Analysis, and Gaming Agency,
    randum Subject: McClintic Theater Model, 28 Sep 81.
    b. US Army War College, USAWC War Game Player's Guide (DRAFT),
    ay 83.
    c. US Army War College, interview with CPT Steve Brannon, Information
    nology Division, 20 Jun 83.
    PURPOSE: The purpose of this memorandum is two-fold, to detail those
    ncements made to the original version of the McClintic Theatre Model
    ) in the USAWC War Game (AWCWG) as recommended in the 1981 Studies,
    ysis, and Gaming Agency (SAGA) memorandum and to coment on further
    ncements found in the AWCVZG that should be considered for inclusion
    TM.
    The AV:CWG is a greatly revised version of the original .TM which was
    rporated into the AWC curriculum in 1982. The model has been
    acted, written in PASCAL, and placed on an ALTOS 8000-10 micro-
    uter. Each section room at AWC is equipped with an ALTOS. The main
    ose of the AWCWG is to assist instruction in the operational level
    ar. The operational level of war encompasses strategic goals within
    mater of war and deals with large unit operations. As with each
    of MTM, the AWCWG has been tailored for instructional use at the
    ational level. Several of the enhancements, however, are pertinent
    altiple levels and purposes of KTM usage. It must be noted that this
    vsis was accomplished without the availability of a computer code
    ing and is based on the above cited references. Due to the
    retical and operational nature of the analysis, the laok of specific
    ater code does not seem to be a detriment.
    rhis paragraph will list the recommendations of the SAGA memorandum
    the AWCWG enhancements, if any, that pertain to the recommendation.
    A. Ownership of minefields by RED or BLUE forces (currently a
    has no ability to pass through a friendly minefield(without
    oring casualties)). The ANCWG does model ownership of minefields.
    friendly unit crosses a hex with a friendly minefield, its rate
    avement is slowed, but it does not suffer casualties, due to the
    tei.Dd.

    Di
    NAME LOOK AT COMBAT
    ABLE LIST TIME. IMTA, INERAW INPTB, INPERB, OTPTA7 OTPERB
    T FORMAT FIXED(F4.O,1XF2.O,1X,F4.O,lX,F2.O,1X,F4.O,lXF2.,X,F3.))
    T MED IUM DISK
    CASES UNKNOWN
    TERGRAM OTPERB WITH TIME
    ONS 296,7
    ISTICS ALL
    SH
    ILE

    C24
    An example L.k&'.A progr.um* ib on the tfollowis pjqe.

    To run an ; p~
    ro~iam the followdnC proceaiur- Can Tbo u;e;...

    t~A' i A;G,Ak uata -filcname

    oshc~n ou run th program ,dIll P)rOM~jt OU af tAur Lh(. fir6 t, int.:


    the program typ~es. Type in the following.

    exaple: t-a A32 6 5.5*Aj2 6 _i_. Lu.

    C23
    MI -V IN *.
    .o raiam ecanget to i~ijfix-st acce s t. subroutine ou wo chanc,.,e
    or write the subroutine you want to ea.. .,ave t.hc (,r ,.A-.-1Jla .

    a chawjod Lubroutino. 2k1z1 jl. mu ;*L W, re-com.~Ilc.. £0 :-cmle -k t Pe


    Sto get into the ~A-mode

    '-he~ a t4pe

    .£his re-compiles i~C1 and sends a copy' of i-e to the grinter on lst

    floor .A'haj;er idali


    ifter ;;tarting the I'OLh.,L sbrotne, you mar sign of"' the computer
    an,"i Tkye compilation will continue to run. uont L'oxget to dic4 upr .our
    0
    O.UJ 0f rli~h!

    C22
    nN-, R -.
    The different subroutines in the r..Ai, program ma' be. li-tea in one

    of two WAV L.. LaUr LjX

    or t >

    -11 the work done on IviTG


    should be done on the program

    l:o there are tvio subroutines that are not under ,"*vAek,. but unaer
    4.A aheLue proram:, axv the i.ran.m numbor reneratek anaL

    C21
    "
    "' il 'i. - - r- ';; ' 9;"'".;
    .Lhe files t..isting for the analjsiz of combat subroutine are calleCt

    They may be accessed bj t).ping

    treaing other data files

    when creating other aata files the files must be openea in the

    i.ain subrouatine

    hL unit number y b, from 1 to 36 but awy not b, the L.ame numLb a*

    another unit number for a data file.

    filw, mut then bu closc


    fTs in the control uboutine

    -,ub-outino; "z-n*&i.UWIT"
    closing: ULiw(UhITA=32)

    C20
    , hiL jrocedure LhoulL be 'followe. in orde;' ThaT the iamic it, .topdea

    and does not run all night even thoujjh you've signed off the terminals. Also

    this will allow jou o ace-a the aat& filu withoub Lroubl , otherwise

    the files will not be closed Ijrojrlj, 1


    i- ou can not acce,;o the data files

    ,-c* the Golagoatb.

    i'o stop the .tts anu I-w terinal,,impl type, in respon c ro "1(omrianer
    what is our command";

    tnen L'iLfn off the terminalb.


    .io ;.ign off the control terminal t.Ype

    2hi:; can be done tw.ice just to make *uro the gam ii.i. 6topAU. i hen t po

    ana rign off the terminal.

    C19
    "£o run g,'.' .jou neea three terminai, one for the ieu -rear&, on fox the
    Blue team, and onc fov" tho controllu:r.
    .tO start the ,',1 game, after signing on tha comInuter te

    .ehira ets jou into tho " moaoe. ehen type

    .Lhi starw the game. Aext in order To start the interaction of the

    plavern-, on each terminal t qe

    ihe program will then &sK jou which playar. will ue this terminal. .iext the

    krogram will ask if you want the communication file initializea., 'he fixt
    timie thu anuwur :hould be you. if the computer cxihe* or "cA 4 ou off he

    s,.%tca, you can re-atart the player terminals only this time .ou nee± not

    initialize the communication file.

    At timLe the V i' gam run will be put into the bacilog of the sstem.
    A call to tho £old coata in the main computer :oom of vhaer !tall uan corxect
    thiu. If oraer4 were put into the terminals befoxe the eame ik; taken off the

    batch backloe, ordcxb do not need to b- retpoWd, rather the gaire shoul ,i;mply
    continue.

    018
    6 i 1 Orkfl4G kfV

    6UBiROUTINDh.

    C17
    .. X wma- a- "I-
    i'jThis guide is created to aLi in the further research of ,
    ' it is not

    an e iustiv- cui.a into the comuLor s.ule, nor doe-; iL containci ovor - thint

    there is to know about ,.'.i. tather iT. i4 a comdilation of th,. authcs

    experiences into the runnin of . how to ma, corectionm and o t.her

    ini-,hu into e'1.'a; research.

    C16
    xhib anrnc.z containd the initial rc-u1U-. uzdn6 to anaijzt; L.at. obtaine'..

    from an 4&ctuulJ. r.un. iric u~z vw-al' ut, UniLc, a uouc±Z1u


    :01 L. Lh( c.o L;ctil

    j~Aza .points of that unit ab it ,xocau,-L rhru,.h tnw combat ; ub~i.outine and.

    afr.Lir the t4ulw oz-' Lhc kubx%)urinc W.-- Cb.1OU1~LIU .

    he L'un loo~s at the Pecent of unit stx~ncth over tim.,. A.h


    CF~UL4!. 1catrL--1Iij for ihit unit ! - oini;~ i ici. ~a bj uu. j.iL10f. -

    -.-qua2.l* law.

    iSLe t.ht .50,j attrzition of thit unit, tne~ unit wihx., buc ei.,

    hcn Lrarxn uiatelj contactc-o. b4 another, fxcia 4: axu unit. 2hu-, we dee a

    ±, wi~4i whivhl fucthE; analjbi.- off -chc Ycj juu~a-- will exi: conauc.

    015
    Terrain/ Combat Movement Rate
    Barrier Multiplier Multiplier
    MTM AWCWG MTM AWCiG

    Highway 1.0 1.0 3.0 3.0


    Road 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0
    Bridge 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.25
    River 1.0 0.5 12 hr delay if a
    bridge destroyed
    Antitank 1.0 0.33
    Ditch
    Minefield 0.5 2-4 hr delay
    Nuclear 0.5 0.5-1.5 hr delay
    Contamination
    Chemical 0.5 .95 Red 2-4 hr delay 1 hr delay
    Contamination .9 Blue
    Hills 1.25 0.5
    Desert 1.25 0.5
    Swamp 1.5 0.0625
    Trail,Tunnel 1.0 1.25
    Pass
    The blank entries above are elements not modeled. As can be seen,
    the AWCWG has increased the modeling of terrain effects. These effects
    . are incorporated into the combat power scores which enter the ground
    combat attrition formulas, however, the effect of terrain on individual
    weapon types is not modeled. This will not be possible until the model
    uses heterogeneous Lanchester Equations.
    R. Include force training/efficiency descriptor for each unit.
    No change.
    S. Continue efforts to complement MTM with state-of-the-art
    graphics. No change.
    5. There are several other enhancements within the AWCWG that should
    be considered in further analysis of MTM.
    A. A unit suffers 1% attrition when it breaks contact.
    B. The AWCWG models the linkage between combat units and their
    combat support and combat service support as they affect combat power.
    The player allocates support and service support assets to the combat
    units. The model then increafis the combat power points of the combat
    unit proportionate to the support allocated. The player also defines
    Lines of Communication (LOC) for the support units to the combat unit.
    If these LOCs are interdicted or cut by enemy action, the combat power
    of the combat unit is decremented 24 hours later. If the support units
    come under ground attack, or when they displace, their support is
    stopped for a period of time. This linkage is crucial to modeling the
    deep interdiction tactics of Air Land Battle and the Warsaw Pact.
    C. Units suffer 0.25% attrition for every 10 km of ground movement.

    D5
    .. . * *- . ,..- . * .. .. * . --.
    - ',r ', ,...-- '
    6. As can be seen from the above enhancements, the AWCWG seems to
    represent an improvement over MTM in modeling the operational level
    of war. The players' attention is focused more at the large unit
    level of decision making and less at the tactical level of smaller
    unit combat. Both models, however, appear weak in modeling the
    intelligence function. Significant research and modeling effort is
    required to define operational level intelligence requirements and
    to incorporate these into the theater/corps level model.

    oN M. B UR JR.

    MAJ, FA
    MVP Coordinator

    D6
    --. • . - .. - .. . . . . - p. ,- , ..--. q . ,
    I -•

    eJ VennM'Btecut r

    US M WR CGLLE f UNITED STATES t ILITAR CDM

    rwirclrtc IIF.A RII fl

    MAIJ Vernon ?t. Bettencourt, Jr.


    Department of Engineering
    USKA
    West Point, NY 10996
    Autovon 688-3078/2924

    El
    !" DRAFT

    MODEL VALIDATION PROGRAM 15 June 1983

    DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING

    OBJECTIVES AND ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF ANALYSIS(EEA)

    OBJECTIVE 1. Develop a further understand Lng or the internal dynamics or the


    McClintic Theatre Model (MTN).
    ERA IA. What is the internal structure of MTh, including parameter values
    and mathmatical computations?

    ERA 1B. What were the computer modeling weaknesses of the original Mm?

    REA IC. What modeling improvements have been made in the various versions
    of MTm?

    ERA ID. What modeling Improvements have been or should be made to the
    Honeywell version of MTH resident at ISMA?

    OBJECTIVE 2. Investigate the sensitivity of MTh output to key input parameters.

    ERA 2A. How do input parameters mathematically relate to MT output?

    ERA 2B. Which input parameters are most significant to the output values?

    ERA 2C. What factors within the model modify or utilize these significant
    input parameters?

    REA 2D. What is the source of the input parameters and how sensitive is the
    output to changes of these parameters?

    REA 2E. How do the input parameters and outputs, at subroutine and total
    model level, compare with those of other combat models resident at other Army
    analytic agencies?

    ERA 2F. Which of the input parameter values, their relative significance,
    and resultant output values are not consistent with combat modeling precepts or
    military Judgement?

    OBJECTIVE 3. Assess the impact of the stochastic aspects of MTH upon the

    confidence which can be placed upon model results.

    ERA 3A. What are the stochastic elements within the model?

    REA 35. Are the stochastic elements correctly model.* and stochastic
    events correctly generated?

    E2
    *i

    DRAFT

    .W'P Department of Engineering (Cont.)

    EEA 3C. How do the stochastic elements effect the model results?

    EEA 3D. Are the model re-ults within a reasonable range based on the stochastic
    elements which effect them?

    EEA 31. Now does human variability eirect MTM results?

    OSJECTIVE 4. Assist the use and interpretation of MTN output by using available

    technology to develop additional 4Th post-game analysis techniques?

    ERA 4A. What are the critical variables necessary for post-game analysis?

    ZEA 43. How can computer statistical routines such as SPSS be used to gather
    and display outputs and variables for analysis?

    EZA 4C. Hlow can computer graphics be used to display outputs and variables for
    analysis?

    E3
    " ..,.L VALIDATION PROGRAM D R A F T 15 Juie 1983

    DEPARTMENT OF HISTORY

    OBJECTIVES AND ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF ANALYSIS(SEA)

    OBJECTIVE 1. Address the fidelity of MTM with historical results through the

    KM Saming of selected military battles.

    LEA IA. What are useful sources of historical data for use in MTN?

    SEA 15. What methodology was used to convert terrain and unit data into

    an Th data base for the historical battles?

    SEA IC. How well did the MH version at the Army War College replicate the

    1973 Suez Crossing? W

    SEA ID. How well did the kNi version at the Concepts Analysis Agency replicate

    the Falkland Islands battle?

    SEA IS. Now well did MTNH at USHA replicate the Battle of Karkov?

    LEA LF. Now well did MTN at USMA replicate the Battle of the.Bulge?

    SEA IG. Do the combat parameters within HTM appear correct from a historical

    perspective?

    SEA IN. In what areas of combat results does 1TH replicate history?

    LEA It. In what areas of combat results does NTH not replicate history and

    what appear to be the critical factors which contribute to the discrepancy?

    LEA 2J. How does MT compare with results experienced in the Quantified

    Judgment Model?

    (OJECTIV 2. Assess the usefulness of acomputer wargame such as MTH as a tool'

    for obtaining historical insight.

    LEA 2A. What combat factors does the model indicate were most critical?

    LEA 21. Can the model facilitate the effects of changing battle events or

    factors?

    EA 2C. Oer the: mdI d1otisior betweew. tm rsoilt o? or 3 6 a at- poer-


    battle plan and execution?

    E4
    :Z111,~
    JECTIVE 3. Explore the pedagogical applications of 4Th within the Department of

    story.

    LEA 3A. What modifications are required to FIRST, the data base building program,

    facilitate its use. in historical analysis?

    LEA 31. What modifications are required to MTH to facilitate its use in

    storical analysis?

    LEA 3C. Whct additional output media would facilitate historical analysis.

    OTE: Several other curricular aspects of 1TH are being explored which do not

    acessarily pertain to the XVP.

    IJECTIVE 4. Identify shortfalls in the MTM battlefield environment or in the

    epiction of primary combat functions.

    SEA 4A. What primary combat functions are not modeled within MTH?

    SEA 4D. What primary combat functions within 14TH appear to be unrealistically

    odeled?

    LEA 4C. What combat results from 1Th appear to be unrealistic?

    LEA 4D. What levels of units does 14TM model effectively?

    E5

    ' .)
    An Analysis of Ground Combat Attrition

    In the McClintic Theater Model Plus

    F1
    Page 2

    Introduction

    (U) The McClintic Theater Model Plus is an interactive

    computer simulation of theater level warfare, designed for the

    analysis of operations orders and contingency plans. From the

    model, analysts can extract critical combat information, such as

    the extent to which the mission has. been accomplished, manpower

    levels, and logistics consumption.

    (U) For the analysts to be confident about the information

    that they are providing, they must be satisfied that the the

    model is a realistic simulation of theater level warfare. The

    developement of lMTMl has progressed to a point where the

    analysts feel confident in thv ab/rirrlof"hEid -bdel to Mimulate

    mo-ement of forces by both ground and air, logistical resupply

    and barrier enplacement. Additionally, analysts can be

    confident of their ability to correctly extract the pertinent

    Information from the model. The outcome of any computer

    simulated conflict is highly dependent on the method the model

    follows In attriting forces engaged in combat. It Is combat

    attrition which determines the outcome of the factors that are

    of interest to the study's sponsors, and yet, it is in this area

    where the developers of liT+li are least sure of the ability of

    the model to simulate reality. The purpose of this paper will

    F2
    Page 3

    be to present and analyze the results of the algorithms modeling

    allocation and attrition of ground forces in HTM . This report

    will not discuss other important causes of force attrition, such

    as mine warfare and air attacks. Due to their significant

    impact in 11THM , these algorithms should be studied to determine

    their applicability.

    Procedure
    for Testing
    the Attrition Algorithm

    (U) Testing of the attrition results from I1TM was a four

    stage process. The first stage required a general familiarity

    with the entire model and a more-detailed understanding of the

    allocation and attrition algorithms. The second st7'ge was the

    developement of a process to isolate desired units, fight them

    in a controlled situation 4nd obtain desired battle information.

    Thirdly, a number, of representative engagements needed to be

    selected and run through the process. The final stage was an

    analysis of the results to determine their reasonableness.

    Allocation and Attrition

    (U) Allocation and attrition in MTMH.. is based on a

    deterministic algorithm developed by Dr. Dennis DeRiggi. The

    implementation of this algorithm into the interactive wargame

    has some stochastic properties. Sample size studies were

    F3
    Page 4

    performed and revealed that the stochastic effects were not

    great. There were additional changes from conception to code

    which did have a significant effect on the results; however, I

    will not discuss these, since the program will be modified to do

    away with the discrepancies.

    (U) The algorithm is divided Psto two segments: allocation

    and attrition. The algorithm sees allocation as the problem of

    how a firer can partition its rounds of ammunition among the

    targets acquired. Each target has a point value that the firer

    earns if it kills the target. The firer also has a single shot

    kill probability (sskp) for. each target. The algorithm

    maximizes the expected value of the number of pointli that the"

    firer earns. The expected point value for firing one round at a

    target is the product of the target point value and the sskp for

    that target. The target or targets for which the expected point

    value is the greatest will be the firer's preferred target. The

    algorithm is not integral; it will allocate fractional rounds

    to a target if that is what is optimal. For a mathematical

    treatment of the algorithm, see the technical paper CAA-TP-83-X,

    Expected Value Allocation Procedure, by Dr. DeRiggi.

    F4
    (U) The actual attrition of forces is handled separately

    from the allocation of fire. Two heterogenous forces are

    divided into homogeneous classes firing at each of the opposing

    force homogeneous classes. Each class consists of a group of

    similar weapons with all members of the class having the same

    point value and sskp with respect to the opposing classes of

    Weapons. The algorithm determines how many weapons within each

    group on one side are killed by each of the groups on the other

    side. The number attrited is function of the firing group sskp

    for the target type, the number of weapons in the firing group,

    the number of weapons in the target group, the probability of a

    single firer acquiring a particular target, and the number of

    rounds each firer has alloca.E -"t d.. th - 'talret group. The

    mathematics of the algorithm can be found in the above

    referenced paper.

    How Battles Were Analyzed

    (U) A method was needed to fight controlled battles using

    the IIT? attrition algorithm. To- accomplish this task, a

    FORTRAN program was written whic allows the user to specify any

    number of the units in the ITM+ data list to engage enemy forces

    anywhere on the terrain board, for a specified length of time or

    to a given cutoff threshold , for a requested number of

    F5
    Fags 6

    opatttons. This driver program, named Arena, is linked with

    he MTM+ obJect code library to +obtain an executable module. An

    nnotated listing of Arena has previously been prepared.

    -Units to Be Tested

    (U) A number of representative US units were tested against

    typical Soviet motorized rifle division. The three units

    hich were run for this study were the 101st Air Assualt

    ivision, the 82nd Airborne Division, and a portion of the 24th

    echanized Infantry Division, as played by demonstration

    ersions of 1Th+. The seven classes of weapons ware: tanks;

    nfantry fighting vehicles; armored personnel carriers;

    nti-tank weapons; artillerf " fidm rt~r 'pllebs; air"defense

    eapons; and, small arms. Each battle was set for twenty-four

    ours, and replicated ten times.

    Results

    (U) The results for the three cases are presented at Tables

    - 3. Each matrix is the seven-by-seven weapon class versus

    capon class kIllerlvIctim scoreboard. The two values in each

    atria entry are the US scores against Soviet (Top) and the

    oviet against US (Bottom) weapon classes. The units of these

    alues are killslfirer/day. Within the target value and sskp

    F6
    ZV - K -
    TABLE.1- US and Soviet Killer/Victim Scoreboard,
    /,/, 's-y,..ASA'-' Division .

    ttrited Weapon

    TANK IFV APC AT ARTY AD Small Ar


    ing

    Rates are In killslfirer/day.


    Top value - US attritng Soviet
    Bottom - Soviet attriting US

    F7
    rrnli
    ~i] "li
    ~.. i...
    ..
    illii*4 -*l'l
    1'* *" '.
    i'""' "i : "'1 '1 ,
    ::
    6Ri5 322 COMBAlT MODELING EVALUATION AT THE UNITED STATES 2/3
    FMILITARY ACADEMY(U) MILITARY ACADEMY WEST POINT NY
    I V M BETTENCOURT JUN 85
    UNCLASSIFIED F/6 9/2 NL
    44$

    977
    TAULI Z. US and Soviet Killer/Victim Scoreboard,
    IMP& AAM"WtC ys I on,

    Attui~t~d Weapon

    TANK Irv AFC AT ARtTY AD Small Ar


    At trittinq
    Weapon

    TANK

    Irv

    APC

    AT

    ARTY

    AD

    smallI
    Arms

    Rates at* In killsltirerlday.


    Top value - US5 attriting Soviet
    Bottom Soviet attriting Us

    P8
    TABLE '3US and Soviet Killer/Victim Scoreboard,

    At trited Weapont

    TANK I-V APC AT ARTY AD Small Ari


    At t r±t ing
    Weapon

    TANK

    Irv

    APIC

    AT

    ARTY

    AD

    SmallI
    Acrne

    Rates are In killslfIrrday.


    Top value - US attriting Soviet
    Bottom -Soviet attriting US

    F9
    Page 7

    calculations are the assumptions that Soviet forces are


    attacking US forces In a prepared defense posture. The computer

    outputs listing the initial unit weapon strengths, and the mean,

    standard deviation, and maximum kill rates for the tests

    presented here are attached as an appendix.

    C on cIus10n.

    CV) The results from the 11TH. attrition algorithm at* not
    realistic. Nior* acceptable results could be achieved by tuning

    the target values and sskp's used In the game. However, I would
    recommend a different algorithm be employed, one that uses a

    mor* objective means for deriving the measures of target


    priority values, and also a sdhtealc'tb of an integral

    number of Pounds fired, to make the model more nearly reflect


    the underlying allocation and attrition process.

    F10
    * Fag* a

    APPENDIX

    OUTPUT FROM THE


    ARENA PROGRAM

    ATTITION ALGORITHM TESTS

    Fll
    00
    1of

    0.2

    C"f0af

    as
    4 ..

    0 a

    44
    46

    aa

    -i~~ 0 0PV

    - son

    6F1
    *Will
    ii * i i i 0 f S

    00, 00uoeo ofte ftoso@

    :: 0~0 ll0 000 @ one4;

    e..... 000, o 00014S0005I 0001

    14.4. at
    aM I I ~ * ..

    0041:0:1:::

    *001 Ol@000O@ 0

    ,~ 40@ oeioO 4M 0000 inaea

    @00 000100 0 )0 00 *0ae

    000000 @00000 0000F003


    ~001

    100 0 I !!f 4.0

    .4.* s*.I.. 14
    4..

    a
    woee @ e.,eclee.1
    0 OWOW1
    0 6%0"0,
    1 W lw W 0"01IUI
    4......1

    see,Ieec Ie gj000e1lJoe
    1e I 4Io J4.

    *eegeege. oe se~ae:
    I.~~:@ 9 iI I
    eeeeee
    Jle jeqe t 00 0 9J*0. 60006*0

    'F1
    S1
    ~JI J I -ter.J IJJJ ~ 0@S
    16wa

    Z400

    Ca%

    do

    .86
    .- U0

    *1F15
    CC: 1 11 15 It 's
    .

    *
    *I S I I S I W it S S
    o e l:e 1.a -,6 *., ... ,..O,.0.
    o ::--°°: :o :.-- e::::o
    I 'ilW Sii %:aw WON WI ISib
    B 010 000 @0 010001 00.1005
    o oo00 ooooo ooo@0 eIeoo
    .0.60.060.06 "601000 00.6 ...1 1oe~

    000
    [email protected].
    500
    ="05000
    °@ o* Joo. 000
    oo:
    J
    eooo

    I06000
    "

    to
    0 j i0 !
    01.10:oo 010i1 --.. . 00
    .... 1000 0 00 'oo,
    OO s eO .O,.OO
    |

    So sww o a-WW U ::

    IO~~@0 I 000 1 ~ .. o 5 *0@ 5 O0 O I 00O


    I I 000
    0o III o @0 1 6.00
    o::oo o o' o"
    . b IS .. o o o .oem o .o0I ooeIoomae oe,
    000sOe.I000 oo0 OoSO..s.Os

    . OOO000 O0 ., I 0 50 0 00Sm.O *000g

    0005 000000
    wuao I oo I ::
    omome.. wwna~1 (F16l
    I
    US.J

    aa02 4 5
    000 0 0009 000 I 0 000 00 5
    .6 5 5 5 6

    inPO I% +1 in€ €€ ofIt *OO


    US wS

    .osooesnsen eooo
    FII:.1:
    6?1rr:0 e
    a 0

    S w I :aI I

    0 4 me I Ole 00 16

    @00 1.S00010000000 00010000900006

    of W Wub whe gaw ww sa I~u


    sosw wwou

    000 0 00
    owe 1e0mea
    0 . 0 00 0 0 000

    @ " 1 0400
    m: a m-a
    00 0060,00
    6 5
    0
    0? 1? ft o?
    Id on lo 0000000@0%
    0~
    01 ~~ :
    1::0,09 0 1 0 0 0SWW

    04000 0.a.a

    . . 6 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
    CI. .
    00 1 .0 Of*00 0

    F1075 0090 0
    .00

    1.0
    a a

    0 4
    = 4

    a Z

    9L .38

    .44
    UON
    . I ot0"

    F1
    Yl2U
    0 f

    04- a5 a0 1 C3 a0 0 1 n 2C
    a a 0 c a 0 00
    oaa omm0 0 n a cooI a a c I 34 a

    eOOOoma ccc nom Oo caS


    oos ccD
    0
    .. .a..5~ .. a. .

    0
    eec 0
    emm cv Cc eo a0on a.n c a

    a 00 a0c 0 a a0 P a-0 0 a al
    or~ ~ am ace 0
    oo a mom 1 o inICo
    a a ne aiC
    IA ~ ac :10T a ccc
    a0cm Ta sea e 0 01 a aces

    .joem a Ccc I .o - Ic
    "
    ma . m@inIw 0CAce
    *es oaI ocI 09 %=O5 40o1
    * "a
    we I eO l

    a0C' a s . w c 0 4

    0 C. .
    :: 10 a...
    . .no. . a*. .*

    coo1 ao 0c001ae
    ca o ccam

    IeoUS a4
    ak aac eIccmacaeamn c
    m~
    sma amo me om meF1c9
    -7. - .. NO bv -

    341 400 FOAT(I X'BtL


    0x -, ',A4,' ATTRITING
    342 ~WAQ~~i
    343 At A1
    344 x0,' INITIAL',/,
    345 lox,' COUNT' ,?Il0,//)
    346 410 FORMAT(2110,4X,7E0.3)
    347 420 FORMAT(24X,7E10.3)
    348 430 FORMAT(24X- '-----------------------------
    349 --------------------------- )
    350 440 FORMAT('I')
    351 END

    F33
    0288 DCLOCKaBCLOCK-IRAGE
    0269 HOLDERuISEED
    0290 REWIND 44
    0291 290 CONTINUE
    0292 DO 300 ICOL=1,2
    0293 DO 300 1=1,7
    0294 DO 300 3=1,7
    0295 SUZIXsRESULT(ICOL,I,J,I)
    0296 SQSUIMuRESULT(ICOL,I,J,Z)
    0297 RESULT(ICOL,I,J,l)=SUIX/IREPFT
    0298 RESULT(ICOLI,J,2)n(IREPT*SSU1-SUMX**2)I

    0299 IF CRESULT(ICOL,I,J,2).LT.0)RESULT(ICOL,I,J,2)uO
    0300 RESULT(ICOL, I,J,2)=RESULT(ICOL,I,J,2)**.5
    0301 300 CONTINUE
    0302 WRITE(85,320)
    0303 WRITE(85,330)
    0304 DO 310 INFIGHTwl,JNUM
    0305 WRITEC85,340)NUNITCIFILECINFIGHT)),UNITCL(IFILE(INFIGHT))
    0306 -IEW(INFIGHT),INS(INFIGHT),TRH(INFICHT)

    0307 310 CONTINUE


    0308 WRITECSS,35O)IREPT,IRAGE,INSEED,ISEED
    0309 WRITECS5,360)
    0310 DO 380 ISDEwI,2
    0311 NOSPu3-ISDE
    0312 ATTACKu'RED
    0313 IFAI5DE.EQl.1)ATTACKw.DLUE'
    0314 WRITECSS,400)ATTACK,(W,NW1,7),NSTARTNOSP.LW),LW=1,7)
    0315 DO 370 NW=1,7
    0316 WKVTZC6S,410)NW,NSTARTISDE,NW),RESULT(ISDE,NW,N11E 5 ,
    0317 -NIIENI,?)

    0316 WRITEC85,420)(CRESULTCISDE,ILW,NME,IDT),NME.1,7),IDT.2,3
    0319 WRITE(85,430)
    0320 370 CONTINUE
    0321 WRITEC65,440)
    0322 380 CONTINUE
    0323 390 CONTINUE
    0324 CALL GRAFX(S)
    0325 10 FORMAT(IS)
    0326 40 FORflAT(14,/,14,/,14)
    0327 50 FORMATCI4,/,F5.2,I,A2,/, 12)
    0326 60 FORMAT(112)
    0329 200 FORJIAT(A5)
    0330 210 FORJIATC12C/))
    0331 240 FORMAT(14(I))
    0332 260 FORMATC2OZ,7E10.l)
    0333 320 FORMAT(IOC/),401,'ANALYSIB OF BATTLE DATA')
    0334 330 FORMAT(I/,Z1,'UNIT NUIER,?X,'COLOR',9XI'EW LOC',9X,
    NS. LOC',
    0335 - X,'THRESI4OLD')
    0336 340 FORIIAT(41, 14, 121,A4,l1Z.A2, 131, I4,121,F5. 1)
    0337 350 FORMATCI,X,'NTIER OF REPETITIONS'1 14,/,I,'NUIDER OF HOURS
    0338 PER BATTLE',14,/,l,'IN4ITIAL RANDOM NUMBER SEED ',I12,I,X,
    0339 - FINAL RANDOM NUMBDER SEED ',112)
    0340 360 FORJIAT('1')

    F32
    0234 ISEIZuIIOLDER
    0235 100 DO 130 ILOCw1,JNUH
    0236 POINTS( IFILEC ILOC) )uIPOINT( ILOC)
    0237 PZRCNTCIFILE(ULOC)).PRCNT(ILOC)
    0238 DO 110 ISUPSI,12
    0239 SUPPLY(IFILE(ILOC),ISUP).IFORCE(ILOC,ISUP)
    0240 110 CONTINUE
    0241 DO 120 IWE~ul,?
    0242 NUNDERVEAPONS~iFILE(ILOC),IWEP).ZWEAPON(ILOC,ZWEp)
    0243 120 CONTINUE
    0244 EW(IFILZLOC))uIEV(ILQC)
    0245 NSCIFILECILOC))uINSCILOC)
    0246 THRES(IFILE(ILOC))*TRH(ILOC)
    0247 EWNEIT(IFILEcILOC)).IRV(ILOC)
    0246 NSNEXT(IfIL&(ILOC))w1NB(lLOC)
    0249 EVFIRS(IFILE(ILOC).mIEWcILOC)
    0250 NSFIRE( IFILEC ILOC) )=INSC hOC)
    0251 130 CONTINUE
    0252 IF ((IRON.EQ.1).AND.CNOB.EQ.1))CALL GRAPXCO)
    0253 IFCCIRON.ZQI.1).AND.(NOU.NE.1))CALL GRAFX(1)
    0254 140 DO 160 Hal. IRAGEI2
    0255 UATTI~f.UCLOCX
    0256 CALL COMBAT(IFRESH)
    025? MF N3ATL.NE.0)GOTO 150
    0258 IRAG~aH'2- -

    0259 GOTO 170


    0260 150 DCLOCKmUCLOCK+2
    0261 160 CONTINUE
    0262 170 REWIND 44
    0263 DO 2.65 IovERu1,IRAGEI2-1
    0264 DO 190 LIN~wmlI
    0265 1o0 RZAD(44I200)IRCAT
    0266 IF(IRCAT.NZ.'-----')GOTO 160
    026? 1?0o CONTINUE
    0368 READ(44,210)
    0261? DO 250 ICOLw1,2
    0270 DO 230 lo.?
    0271 READ(44,26@)(DEAD(ICOL,I,J) ,Ja1,7)
    0272 DO 220 Jul.?
    0273 ONCECICOL,I,J)=ONCZ(ICOL,IJ).DEAD(ICOL,I,J)
    @274 220 CONTINUE
    0275 230 CONTINUE
    0276 If (ICOL.EOI.1)READC44,240)
    @277 250 CONTINUE
    0276 265 CONTINUE
    027? DO 2.0 ICOLsI,2
    02e0 D0 280 lot,?
    0261 DO 260 Jul,?
    0262 RESULTCICOLI.J.1)sRESULT(ICOL,I,J,1).ONCZ4ICOL,IJ)
    0263 RESVLT(ICOL,I,J,2ueRE5ULT(ICOL, Z,J,2)
    *ONCKC ICOL I ,J)"*2
    0264 It(RESULT(ICOLIJ3.T.NCZcICOLI,J))OTO 270
    0255 RESULTICOL,I,J,3)nONCEICOL,IJ)
    0266 270 ONC(tCOL,I,J)=0
    026-91 24 OafTNus

    F31
    bwilr lei
    0001 INCLUDE 'PROC.'
    0131 INTEGER HOLDER
    0152 CHARACTER IEV'2,IRCAT'5
    0183 DIMENSION IEW(40 1ID(40),TRH(40),INS(40) ,IFILEC4O)
    0184 DIMENSIO" IPOINT(40),PRCNT(40),IWEAPON(40,7),IFORCE40,1,..
    0185 DIMENSION RESULT(2,7,7,3) ,ONCE(2,7?),NSTART(2,7),
    DEAD(2 .7,7)
    0186 CALL SYSSCREMBX(,ICHAN,......GRAPHICS')
    0187 OPEN(UNIT=66,NAMEm'GRAPHICS',CARRIAGECONTROL='LIST',
    0ise StATUS.'UNKNOWN')
    0189 WRITE(66,10) 1
    0190 TRACZ=.FALSE.
    0191 PRINT','IN VITRO ANALYSIS OF JITM, COMBAT ATTRITION'
    0192 PRINT*,'
    0193 PRINT'D'HOW MANY BATTLES DO WANT TO RUN?'
    0194 READ'INHAT
    0195 DO 390 NOB. ,NBAT
    0196 CALL INDATA
    0197 CLOSE(UNITm14)
    0198 DO 20 ICOL.1,2
    0199 DO 20 1.1.7
    0200 DO 20 Jul,?
    0201 DO 20 Km1,3
    0202 ONCE(ICOL,I,J)a0
    0203 DEAD ( ICOL, I ,J1.=-O--
    0204 RESULT(ICOLI,J,K)=O
    0205 -NSTART(ICOLI)*0
    0206 20 CONTINUE
    0207 RZAD(66,40)JNU?1,IREPT,IRAGE
    0105 DO 30.JnlJNUM
    0209 READ(86,50)ID(J),TRH(J),IEW(J),INS(J)
    0210 30 CONTINUE
    0211 IF(NOU.EO. 1)READC86,60)ISEED
    0212 IP(NOB.NE.1)ISEEDuHOLDER
    0213 INSEED=IgEED
    0214 IRAGEwINTCIRAGZ)*2
    0215 DO 90 LOC.1.NUMUERUNITS
    0216 DO 90 ILOC=I,JNUM
    0217 IFCID(ILOC).NE.NUNIT(LOC))GOTO 90
    0218 IFILE(ILOC)=LOC
    021, IPOINT(ILOC)wPOINTS(LOC)
    0220 PRCNT(ILOC)oPERCNTCLOC)
    0221 DO 70 IWEP0I,7
    0222 IWZAPONC ILOC, IWEP)aNUMBERWEAPONS(LOC, IWEP)
    0223' ICOLal
    0224, IVCUNITCLCLOC).EOI.'RED ')ICOL=2
    0225 NSTARTCICOL,IVEPu=NSTART(ICOL,IWEP)+IWEAPON(ILOC,IWEP)
    0226 70 CONTINUE
    0227 DO S0 ISUP01,12
    0228 IFORCE(ILOC,ISUP)mSUPPLY(LOC.ISUP)
    0229 80 CONTINUE
    0230 90 CONTINUE
    0231 DO 290 IRONw1,IREPT
    0232 PRINT*D'STARTING REP',IRON,' OF BATTLE',NOB
    0233 IFX IRO4 90. 1 )G0T0 1-00

    F30
    LISTXNC OF ARENA

    F29
    MAINE& - 4............~*~
    Page 8

    OUTPUT FORMAT

    WHEN FILE 85 IS PRINTED EACH BATTLE IS


    REPORTED ON THREE PAGES OF OUTPUT

    THE FIRST PAGE CONSISTS OF A SYNOPSIS OF


    PERTINENT BATTLE DATA
    IT GIVES THE UNITS INVOLVED IN THE COMBAT,
    THEIR COLORSLOCATIONS AND THRESHHOLDS

    THE SECOND AND THIRD PAGES ARE THE ATTRITION


    RESULTS FOR EACH WEAPON ON WEAPON PAIR,.
    FIRST FOR BLUE WEAPONS ATTRITNG RED WEAPONS
    AND THEN FOR RED WEAPONS ATTRITING BLUE
    WEAPONS
    EACH WEAPON ON WEAPON PAIR HAS A BLOCK OF
    THREE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH IT

    THE VALUES ARE ;

    MEAN AMOUNT ATTRITED


    STANDARD DEVIATION
    MAXIMUM ATTRITED

    F28
    Page 7

    HOW TO RUN ARENA

    FIRST; EDIT FILE FOR086.DAT

    INTO THIS FILE, ENTER DATA FOR BATTLES IN THIS ORDER;


    NUMBER OF UNITS IN BATTLE
    NUMBER OF REPITITIONS
    NUMBER OF HOURS THE BATTLE WILL BE FOUGHT
    THEN FOR EACH UNIT IN THE BATTLE ENTbER;
    UNIT ICEiTIFICATION NUMBER
    THRESHOLD
    EAST WEST LOCATION
    NORTH SOUTH LOCATION
    ONLY IF THIS IS THE FIRST BATTLE ENTER;
    RANDOM NUMBER SEED
    REPEAT FOR EACH DIFFERENT BATTLE TO BE RUN

    EXIT FROM FILE086.DAT AND

    ASSIGN INPUT.DAT FOR014


    ASSIGN GFXIN.DAT FOR067

    ON ONE TERMINAL RUN ARENA


    ON A SECOND TERMINAL RUN DRIVER-

    WHEN PROMPTED, ENTER THE NUMBER OF BATTLES


    TO BE RUN

    AFTER PROGRAM IS COMPLEtE


    PRINT FILE FOR08S.DAT TO OBTAIN RESULTS

    F27
    Page 6

    THRES ARRAY OF UNIT THRESHOLD VALUES IN FILE INPUT.DAT


    EWNEXT ARRAY OF EAST WEST DESTINATIONS IN FILE INPUT.DA%
    NSNEXT ARRAY OF NORTH SOUTH DESTINATIONS
    IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    EWFIRE ARRAY OF EAST WEST TARGET LOCATIONS
    IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    NSFIRE ARRAY OF NORTH SOUTH TARGET LOCATIONS
    "IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    H CURRENT TWO HOUR BLOCK OF COMBAT
    BATTIM TIME OF TWO HOUR BLOCK OF COMBAT
    BCLOCK GAME TIME
    NBATL NUMBER OF ENGAGEMENTS DURING.CURRENT
    TWO HOUR BLOCK OF COMBAT
    LOVER CURRENT TWO HOUR BLOCK OF COMBAT
    LINE FIRST OR SECOND DASHED LINE IN FILE44
    IRCAT STRING TO FIND DASHED LINES IN FILE44
    SUmH SUM OF AMMOUNTS ATTRITED IN CURRENT BATTLE
    SOSUX SUM OF SQUARES OF AMOUNTS ATTRITED IN
    CURRENT BATTLE
    INFIGHT NUMBER OF UNIT AMONG UNITS IN CURRENT BATTLE
    ISDE SIDE NUMBER
    ATTACK COLOR OF SIDE.FIRING
    Nw WEAPON TYPE
    LW WEAPON TYPE
    ?OtE EAPON TYPE- '
    tDT STATISTIC TO BE CALCULATED

    F26
    Page 5

    LISTING AND DEFINITION OF VARIABLES


    IN ORDER OF APPEARANCE

    NEAT NUMBER OF DIFFERENT BATTLES TO BE RUN


    NOB CURRENT BATTLE BEING ANALYEZED
    ICOL COLOR OF SIDE ImBLUE,2mRED
    I FRIENDLY WEAPON TYPE
    3 ENEMY WEAPON TYPE
    K STATISTIC TO BE CALCULATED
    ONCE ARRAY TO STORE ATTRITION DATA FOR CURRENT REPT.
    DEAD ARRAY TO STORE ATTRITION DATA FOR TWO HOUR BLOCK
    OF
    COMBAT
    RESULT ARRAY TO STORE ATTRITION DATA FOR CURRENT BATTLE
    NSTART ARRAY TO STORE INITIAL VEAPON INVENTORIES
    JNUM NUMBER OF UNITS IN CURRENT BATTLE
    IREPT NUMNBER OF R9PITITIONS TO RUN OF CURRENT BATTLE
    IRAGE Nl'eiBER OF HOURS CURRENT BATTLE IS FOUGHT
    ID ARRAY TO STORE UNIT ID NUMBER
    TRH ARRAY TO STORE UNIT THRESHOLD
    IEW ARRAY TO STOREUNIT"EAST VEST*LOCATION
    INS ARRAY TO STORE UNIT NORTH SOUTH LOCATION
    ISEED RANDOM NUMBER SEED
    HOLDER FINAL RANDOM NUMBER SEED FROM PREVIOUS REPITIION
    INSEED RANDOM NUBER SEED AT START OF REPTITIONS OF
    CURRENT BATTLE
    LOC LOCATION OF UNIT IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    NUNUERUNITS NUMBER OF UNITS IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    ILOC LOCATION OF UNIT AMONG UNITS IN CURRENT BATTLE
    HUNIT ARRAY OF UNIT IDENTIFICATION NUMBERS
    IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    IFILE ARRAY TO STORE UNIT IDENTIFICATION NUMBERS
    IPOINT ARRAY TO STORE POINT VALUE OF UNITS
    POINT ARRAY OF UNIT POINT VALUES IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    PRCNT ARRAY TO STORE PERCENTAGE OF UNIT STRENGTHS
    REMAINING
    PZRCXT ARRAY OF PERCENTAGE OF UNIT STRENGTHS REMAINING
    IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    IVEP WEAPON TYPE
    IWEAPON ARRAY TO STORE NUMBER OF WEAPONS OF EACH TYPE
    BY UNIT
    NUNRERWEAPONS ARRAY OF NUMBER OF WEAPONS OF EACH TYPE BY UNIT
    IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    NITCL ARRAY OF UNIT COLORS IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    ISUP SUPPLY CATEGORY •
    e IFORCE ARRAY TO STORE SUPPLIES ON HAND IN UNITS
    SUPPLY ARRAY OF SUPPLIES ON HAND IN UNITS
    IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    IRON CURRENT REPITITION
    • EW ARRAY OF EAST WEST LOCATIONS IN FILE INPUT.DAT
    Ns ARRAY OF NORTH, SOUTH LOCATiOW' IN, FILE INPUT. DAT

    * 25
    ilia~~. I I-IW
    300-306 WRITE PERTINENT EATLE IDENTIFICATION DATA
    INTO FILE 85
    C308-3201 FOR BOTH SIDES

    C313-3181 FOR ALL FRIENDLY WEAPON TYPES

    C314,315) FOR ALL ENEMY WEAPON TYPES

    314 WRITE MEAN AMOUNT ATTRITED INTO FILE 85

    C3163 FOR NEMY, WEAPON TYPES.

    316 WRITE STANDARD DEVIATION AND MAX OF


    AMOUNT ATTRITED INTO FILE 85

    324-346 FORMAT STATEMENTS


    349 END OF PROGRAM

    F24
    Page 3

    BATTLE UPDATE MAP


    C254-Z613 FOR EACH TWO HOUR BLOCK

    256 CALL THE MTM+ COMBAT ROUTINE


    257-239 If THERE WAS NO COMBAT STORE LENGTH
    OF TIME BATTLE WAS ACTUALLY FOUGHT
    AND SKIP TO END OF TIME ALLOTTED
    FOR BATTLE

    C263-2763 FOR EACH TWO HOUR BLOCK OF COMBAT

    264-266 LOCATE KIL.LE. VICTOM SCORXBOARD IN


    FILE 44
    C269-2773 FOR BOTH SIDES

    C270-2753 FOR A.L, FRIENDLY WEAPON TYPES

    271 READ IN NUMBER OF ENEMY WEAPONS


    ATTRITED, BY TYPE
    273 ADD AMOUNT ATTRITED TO PREVIOUS
    AMOUNT ATTRITED DURING CURRENT
    REPITITION

    C2?9-2873 FOR BOTH SIDES


    C280-28?3 ~~ FOR ALL FRI-L ~ WEPNeYE

    C281-2473 FOR ALLFENEMY WEAPON TYPES

    282 ADD AMOUNT ATTRITED IN REPITITION


    TO PREVIOUS SUN Of AMOUNTS ATTRITED
    * DURING CURRENT BATTLE
    * 283 ADD SQUARE OF AMOUNT ATTRITED IN
    REPITITION TO PREVIOUS SUM OF
    SOUARES OF AMOUNTS ATTRITED DURING
    CURRENT BATTLE
    284-285 IF AMOUNT-ATTRITED DURING CURRENT
    RIPITITION IS GREATER THAN ALL
    PREVIOUS AMOUNTS ATTRITED STORE
    AMOUNT ATTRITED
    266 RESET AMOUNT ATTRITED DURING
    RE.PITITION TO ZERO

    285' SET BATTLE CLOCK BACK TO TIME AT START'OF


    REPITITION
    289 STORE FINAL RANDOM NUMBER SEED FOR REPITITION
    C292-2991 FOR BOTH SIDES

    C2V3-2993 FOR ALL FRIENDLY-WEAPON TYPES

    C294-2991 FOR ALL ENEMY WEAPON TYPES

    294-296 CALCULATE MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION


    Of AMOUNT ATTRITED FOR- TOTAL NUMBER
    Olt REP II,?ON3)

    F23
    THE PURPOSE OF ARENA IS TO ANALYZE COMBAT ATTRITION IN THE
    MCCLINTIC THEATER MODEL-PLUS OUTSIDE OF THE GAME.

    THIS GOAL IS ACCOMLISHED BY

    LINE NUMBER CODE FUNCTION

    I APPEND ARENA TO PROC.


    183-185 DIMENSION ARRAYS
    194 READ IN NUMBER OF BATTLES TO BE FOUGHT
    C195-3211 FOR EACH BATTLE

    196 READ IN UNIT DATA FROM FILE INPUT.DAT


    198-206 INITIALIZE ARRAYS WITH ZERO VALUE
    207 READ IN NUMBER OF UNITS IN THE BATTLE,
    THE NUMBER OF TIMES THE BATTLE WILL BE
    FOUGHT AND THE NUMBER OF HOURS THE'
    BATTLE WILL BEFTOUNGHT . ..
    C206-2103 FOR EACH UNIT IN THE BATTLE

    209 READ UNIT NUMBERTHRESHOLD AND


    LOCATION

    211 IF IT IS THE FIRST BATTLE, READ IN A


    RANDOM NUMBER SEED
    212 IF IT IS NOT THE FIRST BATTLE, SET THE
    RANDOM NUMBER SEED EQUAL TO ITS FINAL
    VALUE FOR THE LAST BATTLE

    C215-2301 FOR EACH UNIT IN THE BATTLE

    216-216 LOCATE UNIT IN INPUT.DAT


    219-229 STORE UNIT DATA

    C231-2913 FOR EACH REPITITION

    232 PRINT OUT STATUS REPORT TO TERMINAL


    233* IF IT IS NOT THE FIRST REPITITION SET
    THE RANDOM NUMBER SEED EQUAL TO ITS
    VALUE AT THE END OF THE LAST REPITITION
    [235-2511 FOR EACH UNIT

    236-250 SET UNIT DAT BACK TO VALUES PRIOR TO


    LAST REPITITION

    252 IF ON FIRST REPITITION OF FIRST BATTLE


    SET UP MAP
    253 If ON FIRST RhPITITI4Ol ALBL U.r FIR5T

    F22
    USES DOCUMIENTATION FOR
    ARENA

    A FORTRAN*PROGRAM

    WRITTEN BY CADET THOMAS A DUFRESNE


    MAY-JUN 1964
    DURING VOLUNTEER SUMMER TRAINING PROGRAM
    AT THE US ARMY CONCIPTS AKNALY9*.T[Sir kEHCY
    BETHESDA,MXRYLkN-D-

    F21
    0 0 100It. *P000 . 01 .0 .0a,.0 I

    000 10000 100::o0 00


    000000IO@00 ~10001000 0000

    ImsoW I 06 0
    A000010W@0010W0C01I
    000000000000 000@ 00000

    z ~ WW
    0 0 oo@ WW
    0000 I IooouO@0 00000fs
    wu MWM ~~~~~C
    Ie Clow
    II or
    0 a I
    *o~o~~o O~m oO oO 00 0.0000l I
    w.oo00 1 jig 1 iii gi .goo 1vrQ00

    0000 win: 0
    no00

    400MI 0 i0.0 Is 0. 0 Jw w u
    1109.9 1;; Is0s us u

    0000 000000
    000M 1*o.W 1 O o @
    500000
    100010
    000
    . ot"%"
    000
    00 00 0

    8a 04 0* 4 4 1 a4* I 4*I4

    0000 0 00 0 01000500

    o 4000000 0000 00
    000d1 . 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 00
    00M 00 00 0100 al 00@
    0- 0 9 ~F 0 00 0
    TEST OF MODEL INTERFACE PROGRAM IN THE JOINT THEATER LEVEL SIMULATION

    III

    Kevin R Casey.
    Cadet USMA 1995.

    (In cooperation with Mr. Dave Brownell ITD)

    .1MRu l
    Page 2

    The purpose of this test is to test the directives in the Model Interface
    '--gram (MIP) of the Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS). The format for MIP
    r t Plan was set up to test valid, invalid and null inputs. For each of the
    Lnputs there is an expected output. For example* the MIP should accept a valid
    input and reject an invalid input. The test entries which were used included a
    ialid, invalid and null input. As for output# there were two types of expected
    i'esults which are acceptance of the input and rejection of the input.

    Each directive in the MIP is made up of several different fields. A field


    IS considered an ontrU that is needed for a directive to be prqcqssed. The
    :ield can be a mandatory, optional# regulating, or conditional field. For
    xample if it is a mandatoryp field an entry must be made.

    The format of the test was derived and every directive was put in that
    ".'ormat. The actual testing consists of entering all the.different types of
    alid, invalid and null-inputs in each field of all the forty-seven directives.
    he testing was not complet'ed, but the format along with the valid and invalid
    intry list was finished.

    * G
    +*i -. . -. .

    <

    ' i --
    i.G
    Page

    Definitions used in the MIP test:


    V Entry - A valid entry. For integer and real data types, the entry
    LLes within the range of acceptable values aiid for the text data type,
    the entry is an appropriate entry. When applicable, the 'entry matches a
    corresponding data base entry.

    a. Vmax - For integer and real data types, the maximum valid entry.
    b. Vmin - For integer and real data types, the minimum valid entry.
    c. V# - A valid entry which is defined by a note at the bottom of
    the test.
    a 2 1 Entry - An Invalid entry. For integer and real data types, the entry
    m'a lie outside the range of acceptable valu nd for the text data type,
    the entry may not be an appropriate %ntry. (WheJ applicable, the entry may not
    match a corresponding data base entry.

    3. N Entry - A null.entry. No entry is provided.


    4. M field - A mandatory field. An entry must be provided in mandatory fielde
    for the directive to be processed. Mandatory entries may be defaults provided
    by the simulation system.

    5. 0 field - An optional field. Entries may or may not be provided in an


    'optional field.
    R field - A regulating field. The entry in a regulating field determines
    whether mandatory or null entries must be provided in the conditional field(s)
    it regulates.
    7. C field - A conditional field. When specific entries are provided in a
    regulating field, entries are mandatory in the conditional field(s) it
    regulates. At other times, the conditional field(s) must have null entries.

    8. Expected Result 1 - No error conditions.


    9. Expected Result 2 - Error condition - Invalid entry. Entry not accepted.

    G3
    - V V ~ ~N
    Page

    The test of~ the MIP was conducted as follows: At first a format was develope
    which included all the fields Ain bookkeeping manner. Underneath each field th
    .id, invalid and null variables were entered. The last entry after all th~
    Fields were entered would be the expected result. The expected result was
    either an acceptance or rejection of the values entered in the fields.

    Field 1 field 2 Expected


    Result

    V Vmax 1
    V Vmin 1
    1 2
    V 1 2

    N 2
    V N 2
    * -M 2-M

    In this first example both of the fields were mandatory only having t It L,
    i-esponses of valid# invalid and none. The second field has a maximum and ,~
    minimum value associated with It itherefore, the test should consider both of
    these values. A field which has maximums and minimums is usuallyj a field which
    has a number or time associated with it. In the test the type of field was
    :alwayjs entered at the bottom of the teot form similar to this example.

    G4
    .........
    Page

    Another-example is when there is an optional and a mandatory field.


    f'aid 1 field 2 Expected
    Result

    V V 1

    V N 1

    1 2
    V 1 2
    N 2

    1-M 2-0

    In this case two entries would be accepted because of the optional field whic
    should accept the null entries.

    .90
    Page

    Another. example is when a regulating and a conditional field are present.

    field 1 field 2 field 3 field 4 Expected


    Result
    SVV# 1 V 1
    V V#;2
    Vo1 V 1

    I
    g 1
    2
    2
    g gel 1 2.
    V V*2 2

    N 2
    N 22
    g Vol N
    U #2 N 2
    I-M 2-R 3-C 4-C:

    (3-4) (2) (2)


    #1 only field 3 entry Is needed
    ,#2 only field 4 entry is needed

    In this case the 2d field regulates the 3d and 4th field. The 3d and 4th
    rield are dependent on what is entered in the 2d field. If V 1 is entered in
    ' the regulating field then only one other entry needs to be made in the 3d
    ,conditional field.

    Z. .. a. 0,.- - -

    * G6
    Page

    Throughout the test, mandatory# optional, regulating and conditional field


    .- e used. On the average there were about eight different fields for eac
    ..
    ective.

    Each directive was formatted into the different types of fields. Then th
    combinations of valid, invalid and null entries were added. After this wat
    completed# a table.was made so the valid and invalid entries used in each field
    could be recorded. This was formatted as follows:

    FLEELD V Vmax .Vmin I"

    rr

    iI

    ;G7
    Iz a 2&.16:
    Pagc.

    Each directive was formatted in this mbining this format a test Fui
    Pirst directive in the MIP Tactical T would look like the following

    JTLS TEST PLAN: HIP Input/Output Test Procedure

    TACTICAL THRESHOLD Command

    Date Prepared: Prepared by:

    Date Tested: Tested by:

    Reference Group Unit Purpose Threshold Threshold Expected


    to Result
    Change

    V V V V#I V*3 Vmax I


    V V V V#l V#3 Vmin 1
    V V V V#1 V#4 Vmax 1
    V V V V#1 V#4 Vmin 1
    V V V V#1 V#5 Vmax I
    V V V V#1 Vmin I
    V V V V#1 V#6 Vmax 1
    V V V V#1 V#6 Vmin 1
    V V V V#l V#7 Vmax 1
    V V V V#1 V#7 Vmin 1
    V V V V#1 V#8 Vmax 1
    V V V V#1 V#8 Vmin 1

    V V V V#2 1

    V N 1

    1 2
    V 12
    V V 1 2
    V V V 1 2
    V V V V 1 2
    V V V V V I 2

    1-M 2-0 3-M 4-R 5-C 6-C


    (5-6) (4) (4)

    (CONTINUED)

    G8
    Page

    forence Group Unit Purpose Threshold Threshold Expected


    to Result
    Change

    N 2
    v V N 2
    V V V N 2
    V V V V N 2
    V V V V* V N 2

    -M 2-0 3-M 4-R 5-C 6-C


    (5-6) (4) (4) 0

    CHANGE Threshold
    , REPORT Threshold
    IRESHOLDS THAT CAN BE CHANGED
    I Attack:Defend
    Defend: Delaj
    Delay: Withdraw
    Withdraw: Ineffectiv e
    Ineffective: Wiped Out

    G9
    Page I.

    JTLS TEST PLAN: MIP Input/Output Test Procedure

    TACTICAL THRESHOLD Command

    LD V Vmax YminI

    I(I __ _ _ _ __ __ _ __ _ _ _

    G10
    Page I

    After the format was developed, the valid and invalid entries were found b
    ig through each field in. every directive. This was the end point of ou
    iect. Our next step would have been actually conducting the test. Th
    ;inq includes putting the valid and invalid entries in every case that wa
    !loped in the format portion of this test.

    In conclusion this test was developed to test the MIP and its ability t
    pt and reject valid, invalid and null entries. This test provides at
    inized format to help in the testing of the MIP.

    Gil
    a a, ' ,'/
    .-- = , CZ i.'.-C.o ".'/C,.."." ..-.. . "-: '', L ~ k,' a 6
    =
    I ,,rw . *- 'k'".,- s-=.. =."i .. . ......... . .,. • *..... . . .,-.-.,. .. -.

    Either chantges one of the tactical thresholds at which a unit


    will change posture or reports to you concerning all
    thresholds.
    T13;t forms T=CIMA 1~HH. or TT
    At~.huaa; 1. REP===-:~ Player-selected identifier
    2. QUIP: Optitonal. Player-selected identifier for a group
    of directives to be sent to the CP at one t .,
    3. lT: Um nm of any unit n your side.
    4. PU1N Enter either V31CR oc "CUM"GI If PMW is
    entered, directive is compete.
    5. 0 QWG
    TO5OW Enter the number of the desired
    choice. The appropriate threshold item (or all of them)
    will be used as a pSwpI for the nw valuef-

    G12
    Lj £.N i H.A 1Li' :.LEVLL I HULA "I tLN MU1,1L

    JOHN S. I-iIORRIS III

    Cadet UkMA 19 5

    Fui tle Land ,qtems Lab,

    rL:. tfur L-;d


    i Warfare, U.S. Army War Collegit.

    1 June,.. .9'4

    Hi
    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    :,=: L uri i (enea'a1. 1

    'e:i.,on 2. The Principles of Lanchester-type


    Combit Models. 2
    12. i Typle of Equi ations.2

    12lTljpli: oP Combat. 2

    2.3 Aimed/Direct Fire, Heterogeneous. 3

    2. 4 Area/lnTdirect Fire. 6

    2. 5 Mixed Heterogeneous Attrition. 7


    &'nd n ot es. 1

    Section 3. JTLS Attrition Subroutine Summary. 11

    3. 1 JTLS Ground Attrition Process. 12

    3. . Attrition Rules Summary. 17

    4. Lanchester Attrition Equations in


    JTLS. i6
    4. 1 CEP Attrition Equations. 16

    4- Attrition CoeFficients. 19

    4. 3 Fuel and Ammunition Penalties. 21


    4.4 Observations. 22

    Se:;iioi 5. Recommendations for Improvement. 24

    :$ I Attrittee Fuel and Ammunition


    Penalties. 24
    !3.2 Reducing Combat Effectiveness Ovei
    Time. 26
    . 3 Modified L.anchester Equations. 27

    Appendix L. LAS'r&ES. CUMBASr]

    Appendix 2. rATTRITION. CALCULATION]

    H2
    P age 14

    10 iu t i tw then totaIs up t.he numb er of ca,*Yuaties

    i'licted on each system. The ATTRITION.CALCULATION routine

    LI -jL
    vid. thosve ct-du iltie'i evenly among all units in that

    ix "These will bt. subtracted from the unit strength after

    L iI have undergone ground att-itionik by the

    W2JUNU. LECRI-MENT. FORCES routine called by the ASSESS. L 'CAT

    Ion L tC, supplies used will be estimated by th,

    WOUND.ATTRIT.SUPPLIES routine, also called .by the

    • *&-IS i CcOIBrA" event ut .inu Lhe number of casualties l'ec ived

    thL unit and the unit#s posture during attrition. The

    IL;L 1,. will' then o.btract this estimate from the units

    ipplies. The ArTRITION.CALCULATION routine will then

    . :i, Lhe p ruce s foi' thp next hex. When the attrition

    iu ed by all the surrounding hexes has been computed, the

    )-ui~lne will return to the ASSESS. COMBAT event. This event

    11i thBn repeat the process for the next unit in combat.

    H16
    ~~~*~- A.- ''
    Page 13

    te attLrition wiil not occur. Then the

    Af"THTION.CAL.CULATION i-outine will tA check the next unit

    in lth hex. OtheutiwisL the routine will j "t$ finish the

    as.4imwqv:vint oF the n umber of combat systems facing in the

    .ti.n o
    ufi t he eneu . unit that is currently causing

    attri:tion. The rout:ne then computes the combat power of

    Lh:.- k..;,,tY aL.U, itor.) i.,nit Lhat is facing the friendly

    (atritee) unit. It .I1o checks to make sure that the unit

    is within a we.pan system's range before allowing it to

    . ,.u:3ti . to .n enemy unit.

    The system then checks the ammunition and supply status

    of the unit causing attrition. Units that are out of

    am,,jnition cannot inflict casualties ;n another unil. It

    ai=z chocks iny reinforcing units (DS, GSR and .S Artillery)

    to 4ee UhaU they are not in combat jith another unit are in

    V.t,,1:, ind havo imitmunituon. It also checks whether the unit

    ha. fuIL.. Yhe routine then penalizes each weapons system

    d capundeviu '
    vh.. i; i . ifu.:i ( such as tanks or S howitzers) for

    atT-.Ltur units and their reinForcing units that are out of

    fU& 1. Th4. rou Line L hen uses the index iiumber frum the

    WHG. DGE.WHAT. TO. WHOM outine to select the corresponding

    tabe of Lanc:hester a:ttrition coePficienLs (see Figure 2:

    FWL.. CoefftLcievit;). F r each attritor weapons :;ystem, the

    r'I i'i
    t IU'. (.AL.C .LAIiUN ruu v
    int? elec t S ;he Fpp opriate

    tu .*-FL,4 t (Fi Vuve ',')rind substitutes it into either the

    he
    1 , h-I
    z Ar Fivv F.qu a uT
    ti For irnd ire t f ire s seinty .

    che L-.ncha4Ler Ain-ed F-ive Equation for direct f ire s ys t Lins.

    H15 -~
    Pajge l2

    Section 3. dJTL.S ATTrITrION SUBROUTINE SUMMARY

    3 L ;JIL.'J.
    'r'uiiLd A~trition Process.

    rhe gru;id combat attrition in the JTLS CEP occurs at a

    set tnterval governed by the ASSESS.COMBAT event. The

    ASSESS.;. COMBAT event L:htfcks each unit to see if it is in

    cooa6 ii. If it is in combat, the event calls the

    ATTRRiIcjq. CALCULATION routine to simulate tho attrition on

    the unit. The routine checks the surrounding hexes to see

    if AIie unit is still in combat. If it is not, the routine

    exit * back to ASSESS.COMBAT. If the unit is still in combat

    (enemy units are in adjacent hexes), the routine determines

    the oi,iU's icolor and the enemy unit's color.

    t'ho attrition routine's next major task is to allocate

    the unit's combat power among the six hexsides according to

    th,# .wul; data base. This is done for each of the unit's

    weapon .j',etms. Then for each adjacent hex the routine

    calculites the attritiun caused by the units in that hex.

    The ioutin. first checks to see if the hex is occupied. If

    it La oot U:cu1)ied, the routine goes to the next hex.

    Otnerwise, it will cliock to see if the Frienidly unit is

    within ranji o f th e nemy unit's longest range weapon. If A

    th i.%l1tt i s ut. of r atntje, combat cannot occur In that case PT

    it will 'check Lhe iuxt unit in the hex. If the unit is in

    ra t-, tho ,out;inr will chek the posturer (attack, defend,

    ,Qanii .,c) uf Uuth usitit against the COMBAT. INDEX (Figure 3).

    usLng the WHO.DOES.WHAT.TO.WHOM routine. If the index is

    H14
    Page i

    L11 Th~ e.ir who (~It-r e t more informnation should read


    ~&irM-SQfER-TP 13-F WARFARE and A TUTORIAL QIN )HE

    QF EiNAiL ION OF S1f


    INOL.-WEAPON-SYQTEM-'TXPE I LjL RATES EME
    USL*, 1- j Lti~E (KI i t Q. A IMDLS by Professor James G.

    Tatili 1.) tht il'ya 1Po


    VU t~~uiite School.

    L~~4E
    0,1 JA klt LAsb4V

    H13
    The Sykitem used in the JTLS model is basicallU the same

    as thLs one just described. In addition to the steps

    diicu!,svd ,buve, it chocks to see if a weapons system is in

    Tall 4e and has ,ammunition before it can cause attrition. It

    al'jU weakens thu power of a unit that is fuel dependent and

    is Ouu of fuel. The JTLS system also uses different sets of

    coevFiaiets fori'jorent unit postures, t.ime of day and

    weather. The attriton process for the JTLS model is

    de-,iaPLbed in detail in the next section and the exact

    Lanchioser attrition equations are identiFed and described

    in 'Ltion 4.

    H12?
    Page 9

    Where.
    ,'\V The number of casualties to the victim(attitee)u? I
    i
    combat iistam type i.

    K Th . iumber of killer(att-itor) weapon type j.


    J

    M = Total number of types of enemy weapons.

    D = Direct fire switch; 0=1 if weapon type j is direct


    J
    fire, Dr:O otheruise.

    I = Area Fire switch; I=1 if weapon'type j is indirect


    j
    fire, I-O otherwise.

    G = Rate at which weapon type j kills system i, using


    iJ
    a~med fire.

    P - Rate at which weapon type j kills systea is using


    ij
    ar,,ea Fire.

    Th- equation wor-s bj calculating the number of casualties

    inflicted on7 a given system by each of the enemy systems.

    The r-winber uf Soviet -tanks destroyed, for example, would be

    the sum of the number of tanks killed by the M-ls, the

    inf."ntrymenh the mortari and the TOWs. The casualties to

    the BMPs aid Soviet inPantrymen would be calculated in the

    same manner'. Thi S ,a;uires i*j number of Latchester

    attT.ition coefficients for each side where i and j denote

    tho number ui- difFeriii comb,:it systems each' side owns.


    Page 8

    M-I L-inks, (4 infanitry iOliJuT'S, 3 8linm mortars and 4 TOW

    te. ,1i The Soviets have 4 T-62 tanks, 13 HIIP M lCVs and 96

    ,noLrs .i.d rifle troups. The mortar is an indirect fire

    weapon and requires the use of the area fire equation to

    calc"L-t tho atrbition that it inflicts on tho Soviets.

    The other weapon systems are direct fire and use the aimed

    firu equation. T hc. casualties that WEi u I t from a,

    engagenent between these two forces can be modelled using a

    mix .d hlutvuyeneuus Lnchester equation. The f orm of the

    equation could be:


    M M
    /V 1) .
    D' *K + > I *P *K *V
    i /--- J ij /--- j iJ jj
    Jul j=l

    H10
    Pageo 7

    ari in the imnpact area the more casualt'ses that result.

    With armored vehicles the more armored vehicles in the

    LaI, ,tUL area, Lhe greater the chance that there will be a

    direct hit on one of them. In our example situation, we

    c.ould assume that it takes 30 seconds for the Forward

    obierver to i'eisu the target location, 30 seconds for the

    f'irt, directioni c ont e to compute the data and t.elaj it t 9

    the guns, 15 seconds to load the gun and 15 seconds for the

    round to impact. Als assume that it takes one hit to kill

    a target and assume that because of the Soviets disposition

    at)d the terrain, it takes 6 rounds to hit any troops. This

    results in an expected kill time of This gives a

    value- of b=1 kill/9 minutes=. 11 kills/minute. In the first

    minute of combat the number of casualties would be given by

    tha equation dx/dt-. ll(6)(150)=99. The second minute's

    casualties are represented by dx/dt=-. 11(6)(51)-34. The

    th.Lrd minutes casualties are represented by

    d xdt.--. J( (i7)1. This process continues until the

    Amttl'ic-.ws ceas Fire or the Soviets are all killed. Notice

    thi5 casualtyj rats (casualties/troops) decreases as the


    AWJ 4i.4'~. LAt
    Sovitt.;; loso more btOOPS.

    A oi L 3;'0d iteLvct euu i ~r i t u1 P 1 .L. 0 'i jiuivulves.

    i u ,iLi.
    uiis whfn : both direct and indirect Pir, are involved

    -i-o ib~ on*


    011 ii wiou di Pfei,nt tybprE' ui weaJpons, * is

    ui'td :n .JTL. Consider a case where the AivieT'icans have 4

    H9
    -
    ,---- ' '" . ' ' M' ' '
    JW

    Page 0

    s,iumptiun Uf 4 Lunutant utrength over the asseesament ti me

    interval is made in -order to keep'the attrition process


    'i ,il.. This allut.s the attrition process to be solved

    analytically. The approximation is good for small periods

    2. 4 Ar~lnJrcj Fcran-

    To illustrate the area Fire process, let us assume a

    situation where we have an American 155mm. howitzer battery

    (6 'umi) against a Soviet airborne company of 150 men, The

    Amwri'cans are not in the line of sight of the Soviets who

    can uiily fire in a direct fire mode. Thus, they are riot

    sub*j Ct to attrition from the Soviet firepower. The

    Amer icais are using indirect fire so the Lanchester area

    fire? equation applies. The Lanchester area fire equation is

    bai d on tho as-i.;umptiuv that the number oF c. sualties caused

    by indirect fire is a function of not only the number of

    entfiit weaponi and their effectiveness, but also the number

    of torgets in the area. Mathematically this is:

    dx/dt=-byx,

    where the coe fPiciant b here represents the effectiveness of

    th- IMJI UOILt V1 1 k . 61 Lhv- vulsivi~aU.Llity uii- Lit. taryets to

    ti L| wnoy fir.e. Th i makes sense because indirect fire

    ko . L. te t h Lig witin its ia t rpa, ex.ept armored

    veh .It.s which reqiuire ,i dirocr, hit. The 116Or& targets Lh61t

    H8
    ToPage 5

    Using Lhe above equations the number of enemu weapons


    kilted deperidsi onlyj on the expected kill time and the number
    of firing units. The number of targets did not affect the
    casualties except the casualties could not exceed the total
    numbear of enemy units, that is, no negative unit strengths.

    The TOWs would have killed a maximum of 24 tanks whether the

    enemy had 30 tanks out there or 300 tanks. The tankers


    could not kill more than 12 TOW teams because there were

    only 12 teams in the platoon. This makes sense because each

    weapuii is directed against a particular target. These


    weapons usually kill only if a direct hit is made.
    Therefore, more targets don't make it easier to hit a

    particular target. It does make it easier to aquire new


    target'- but LincheituT ignores this. If there were more
    Lhan n TOW tea.;s, then the next minute of combat could be

    simnu]a ., d by Fubtracing the first Ccasualties from

    each side and then repeating the process that was done

    duri n te fhirst minute. The attrition can continue until

    the units disengage or one side is completely wiped out.

    (he ii uat ions dt/dt=--bx and dx/dt-.-ay are know as

    difti.lor.nce u~ .1te,'; L?u a u u x(t) arnd y(t) (thu number of

    We.Jn -w) u .iWsujmsed to be conlstaet QVQT a giV01m t iAe

    t 1.-t.1L.,ioul.y;Iy Lhe Anti-tank platoon did not have 12

    tealls f oi'Lihf
    o ent i v minut.e of combat. The platoon

    gr-adu, ly Ios.-L LLa over the space of the minute. The

    H7
    Page 4

    repeioent the Pir, ePfectivenes of the two weapons. The


    coefficients are the. reciprical o0 the expected time
    ic-q;ired to kill the enemy target.

    In our example lets assume that the TOW missile will


    kill every tank it hits and it will hit every time it is

    fired. The expected time required to kill a T-62 is then

    composed oF three segments: the time needed to load a

    misuile, the time required to acquire a tank and the time of

    flight of the missile. Now, if a trained crew can load the

    mi,.iLe in ubout 5 seconds, acquire a target in about 10

    seconds and the missile flight time is 15 seconds, the

    expected kill time would be 30 seconds. This would give a

    coefficient b-l kill/.5min-2 kills/min. That is one TOW

    team will kill 2 tanks every minute. Given 12 TOWs and 33

    tanks, 24 tanks would be wiped out in the first minute.

    Th.at is in accordance with the equation dy/dt=-2x with x-12.

    Now assume also that a good communist tank crew can

    kill a TOW jeep with a single hit. However, due to the long

    range, concealment of the targets, and poor target

    acquisition capabilities in a buttoned up posture, the T-62

    * requires 40 seconds to acquire a target and load, one second

    *~for flight time and 3 shots to achieve a hit. The expected

    kill time is 2 minu Lu,,) Which gives a coefflicient of

    al t'ea in0 oft, .410nutom


    TOW k iI/2minA -LeeP~~e
    "t
    5 k i II./min.That is twothetanks willintkill one r/s
    TON4 team in ona inl'u' V The'rv-o e, "Iii -the f irst ininute the

    tanks will kill 16 TOW teams. . rhis is represented a&

    dx/dt'--y/2 with y=33. ,ihis is more than the number 5P TOW

    H6
    Page 3

    Equations

    Heterogeneous! Homogeneous

    Arjl/tiidirect I 155SP HOW. 1 Corps Artillerj Group

    Aimed/Direct I M60A3 Tank I Armored Division

    Figure 1. Heterogeneous/Homogeneous Equations.

    2.3 am__Jirct_ F _ Heterogeneous.

    The Lanchestei- equations involve the use of

    differential equations to model the change in the number of

    anemy weapons of each type caused by enemu action. To see

    how this works let us consider an engagement-between a jeep

    mounted TOW anti-tank unit and a battalion of T-62s. Let

    x()=- Lhe nuibrr of jeep mounted TOW units at time t. Let

    y(t)= the number of tanks at time t. Both of these weapons

    fire, iii the aimed fire mode. The Lanchester aimed fire

    equation is based on the assumption that the number of

    . caualtieS incurred On a weapons sustem is directly

    pruportional to the number of enemy systems that are doing

    the firing. Mathematically this is represented as:

    J x/d =.-..Liand d y / d V;--b x,

    wh..r,:, 61he prupartiunali t y conatants a and b are known a i Lh.

    Lanchester attrition cuem ficients. These coefficients

    t1t5
    Page 2

    Sectiuri 2. THE PRINCIPLES UF LANCHESTER-TYPE COMBAT MODELS

    2. 1 T .l g.± ELuations.

    Yhe JTLS C-P models ground combat attrition using

    fairly uncomipicated heterogeneous Lancheste, equations

    which model the effect of each of a unit's combat systems

    against each oF thu enemy unit's combat systems.1his allows

    4the inGdel user to ineasure the attrition rates of each of his

    majur combat systems separately. Byi contrast homogeneous

    equations, used in the Mcclintic Theater Model (MTM),

    measure the aggregate effects of an entire unit's -eapons

    agains:t the aggregate strength of all of the enemy unit's

    weapons.E ] The heterogeneous equations are slightlU more

    complicated than the homogeneous equations because each

    combat system must be attrited by each enemy combat system

    separately which necessitates doing more calculations.

    *~ 2 2.T Hjpjv oQ.atA.

    'wo types of combat can be allowed in Lanchester

    at i-c i'on ar'a/indirect fire (mortars or artillery) or

    aiiie;diirect fire ttank guns, rifle fire or guided missiles)

    as :howl in Figure 1. When only one type of fire is

    alluwud, it is a simple heterogeneous Lanchester

    f ormu IJation. Whcvn buth tipes of fire aire allowed, it is a

    mired hetevu iug0muu; isnmlies;el. follcUlatio~i lMd iE used ill

    thc 1'.EF.
    GROUND COMBAT ATTRITION PROCESS

    JOINT THEATER- LEVEL SIMULATION MODEL

    S&.cTI"JN I GENERAL

    This report is intended to provide the average user of

    the Joint Theater-Level Simulation model (JTLS) with an

    explanation of the ground combat attrition process of the

    Combat Events Program (CEP). This report consists of a

    bri f oxplanation of the principles behind Lanchest-er-tUpe

    combat models, a narrative description of the ground combat

    attritin process, the rules Followed by the CEP in the

    attrition process, and a detailed explaination of the

    Lanchester equations and attrition-coefficients used in the

    CEP. This report is aimed at a user who is not familiar

    with Ldinchister-type combat models and wishes to learn how

    the attrition process is carried out in JTLS.

    The report also is intended to aid persons familiar

    with combat modeling in general and JTLS in particular to

    improve Lhe. ground combat attrition process. To this end#

    comments on possible weakpoints in the model have been

    included throughout the explanations of the attrition

    pruce's and in the rec.ummendation sertion.

    * 1H3
    Page 15

    UNCLASSIFIED
    DATA BASE FOR ACCEPT P59
    FWL COEFFICIENTS FOR COMLRAT INDEX *40

    COMBAT SYSTEM
    SYTEI It 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
    -----------------------------------.------------------------------------
    I. .0002 . 0008 0. .03 0. .00004 .00032 .0034 .002 .0200 0. .00

    :2 .0001 . 0003 .0001 . 00P . 0001 0. .00023 .0023 .004 .0030 0. 0.3

    3 .0003 . 001 O40 .500 .003 0. 0. .004 .020 .00050 . .04


    4 0. 0. .0007 .03 .001 0. . 0. 0. 0. 0.
    5 0. 0. .006 .03 .001 0. 0. .003 .001 0. 0. .00
    6 0. 0. .004 .0001. 0001 .0002 0. .0002. 002 .0001 .006 .000

    7 0004 .001 .0009 .0012 0. .0001 0. .0003 0. 0. 0. 0.


    a .0001 .005 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
    ct 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
    10 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
    11 .0007 .0010 .0013 .0008 .0007 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. .0001 0.

    Ic2- 0. .0001 000'3 0002 •0002 . 0001 . 0001 0. . 0001 0. 0. 0.


    COMBAT SYSTEM NAMES

    NUMBER BLUE NAME RED NAME


    4
    -
    I M60A3 T64/T72
    2 M113A. BMPI
    3 GRUNT (INF) HUMAN WAVE (MR)
    4 MORTAR MORTAR
    5 VULCAN ZSU23-4
    6 155sP 152 TOWED
    7 TOW SPANDREL
    a CLERKS& JERKS WIMPS
    9 0ARUAf.'J"' FILTH
    10 RAUI U*. IEvIUPHURL £ tLA4
    11 CAS CA -i
    12 COBRA; FLYING TANKS
    ,,',-'*NO'[-: I'HESE AI'd ONLY SAMPLES FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY*'-***
    FIGURE 2

    H17
    Fage 16

    RED
    COMBAT INDEX

    DAY-NIGHT WEATHER
    2 1
    POS'URE ATTACK DELAY MOVING HASTY WIPED
    DEFEND WDRAW AVAIL DEF INCAP OUT WAITING

    ATTACK 21 24 23 22 22 21 25 31 32 0
    DEFE:IN D .2 25 P4 21 20 23 0 29 28 0
    DELAY 26 22 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0
    WITHDRAW 21 22 0 0 0 0 0 23 23 0
    HOV I NG 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    ADMIN 27 .26 0 0 0 21 0 0 22 0
    HASTY. DEFENSE 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 37 0
    INCAPABLE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    WIPED.OUT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    WAITING 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    FIGURE 3

    ***-**NOTE: THESE ARE ONLY SAMPLES FOR ILLUSTRATION PUROSES ONLY*****

    .H1
    iHi
    *%#
    Page 17

    I. A comnbat system inay b.e either an ind'irect fire system or


    i direcL fire systefa, but not both.

    2. b-ire-t :iLre systems use the Aimed-Fire Algorithm.


    Indirect fire systems use the Area-Fire Algorithm.

    3. A, combat systert maij cause attrition to an enemg system


    cij if it is in range. Range is based on the distance
    bULween units (not between combat systems). Each weapon
    *iystem has its own maximum raige.

    - 4. Units that do riot have sufficient ammunition may have


    some combat systems reduced to ineffectiveness. This
    "~Factor is depundent on input data.

    5. Units that are out of fuel may have some combat systems
    penalized in effectiveness. This depends on the input

    6. A uNLt in combat With another unit may only use the


    Pi-action of its combat power oriented toward the hex side
    between them to cause attrition to the other unit.

    7. No unit can lose more combat systems than it has


    operational.

    * 8..Direct Pire systems may killcas many aslall the enemy


    cumbat systems. Indirect fire systems may also kill as
    MCIDY as all eIemg combat *systems, but the Area-Fire
    t.Lqu'rLLhm ii desiriwd to kill only the enemy systems | ''
    S/ u r.LL.10ed toJward the ihex edge to which they themselves are (
    UT'L . ed. Note: this discrepency within the CEP Area-Five
    Algorithm is caused by the fact that the maximum number
    of ci:i-,uitias allowed is all of the enemy sgstems (just
    iLike ier aimed fire). Thus, when the Area-Fire Equation
    -Jicu tLs mre casualties than there are enemy units,
    Li - unit loses all of its systems instead of only that
    pur;tion Facngr, the enemy as intended by the designers.

    9. Units that are in a reinforcing role are not attrited in


    combat involving the reinforced units. Attrition against a
    '4 unit does not aPct any supporting units. Reinforcing
    units cannot give a unit support if they are themselves
    in combaL (enem units are in an adjacent hex).

    10 ;-M JLI;I iLot ulit. V, d taiLh i hex corn tn .inj more thafn
    ,nlu -nou'.y unit d.iivids wha.tever combat power it can bring
    to boear - quilly a u, ng all attritees.

    i
    H119
    Page 1

    t5ectin 4 LANCHESTER ATTRITION EQUATIONS IN JTLS

    The at.ritioli equations used in the

    ATTRI10ON. CALCULATION routine can be considered the heart of

    h, attr'ition proceF.s. This section is intended to explain

    th4 role of the equatioras and how they work in detail.

    4. 1 CJP Att.tiqn EguacLons.

    The attrition equations used in the CEP are just basic

    mixed heterogeneous . Lanchester difference equations. The

    CEP uses difference -rather than differential equations;

    apl,-,'uximation is used because an ap aJ" solution to a

    difierential equation is extremely difficult to obtain. The

    CEP assumes that the number of systems available to kill or

    to e killed is a consUant over the assessment period. This

    al ltuwi, hc, Lanrhester equations to be treated as difference

    equj.ntions rather than differential equations. This

    afuximatioi, is acceptabie for short assessment periods.

    The La-nchev;ter attrition equations used in the CEP are:

    Lanches ter Aimed-Fire Equation:

    13 -fsn..i umuoi(i , P Sr ' . iQ j j *R NFR) *AR


    L SR / . ..-ij j j j

    IH2
    81 --en.~ nun,[ ,~ i-J ,'f.. . 0 * (R MFR *AR{. 15 .*FS *rAS ) ]
    & S / jS 1.
    . J J .

    1120
    Page 19

    Wh er

    Ai = Ammunition available switch 1=on, O=off.


    J
    6 - Number of blue systems of type i.
    i

    FR - Fuel effectiveness penalty 1=no penalty, <1=penalty.


    J
    i =Type of blue weapon system.

    j Type of red weapon system.

    m Total number of red weapon systems.

    P Fract-iun of red unit sharing a hex edge with blue unit.


    SR

    P = Fraction of blue unit sharing a hex edge with red unit.


    SB

    G x FWL coefficient j type system against i type system.


    ij

    R = Number Qf red systems of type j.


    J

    S Number of red systems of type j from supporting units.


    J

    The equations require a.ttrition coefPicients(G), the

    quaintity of each of the attriting unit's combat systems(R),

    the quantiLy .wP eac h of the attr'itee u(it S combat

    tm-Psi.sp (B), the distribution of each units sy4stems to their

    (.0IIdiL, II ex -ide P ), ;imi aiiy penalties for Fuel oU' ammuri tion

    depl etian(FR, AR). The coefficients and the fuel and

    =' '
    II" I '' i' " -. H21 ':', ". ." - ;; ¢ '";:;v '/;
    Page 20

    • m.uhn-Lion depletioi punislties are specified in the input

    dar,;, base. The distfribution of 4he units combat power

    wic-hir, its hIx miay be sut by the player or by a default

    di~tT'ibutiUrI set by the input data base. The quantities of

    ea,.h type %4 caobat system For both the attritor and the

    attritea are iniitially set in the input data base and are

    updated latur to roe-loi:t combdt losses. Ammunition and fuel

    status is stored by the CEP and updated after each use of


    .
    thoz. - uppliet .

    The attrition coefficients are stored in it- three LIj

    dimiensional array that consists of 40 12xI2 matrices that

    coniist of one kill rate for each attriting weapon system

    (rows) against each attritee weapons system (columns). The

    rottine WH). DOES.WHAT. TO. WHOM uses the time of dayweather

    and the postures of both units to reference the COMBAT. INDEX

    arr. j (Fi gure 3) to obtain a number that will determine

    which particular 12x12 matrix (Figure 2) is to be used to

    obti the attrition coefficient for each sob of attritor

    comrb-at s*ystem and attritee combat system. A COMBAT. INDEX

    vwalut, of zero iiidicates that the attritor unit will not kill

    .ang of the attritee units. As an example, if both the units

    aro Ln, a withdrawal posture, the index would yield a value

    of 0 Thxs would atean thait attrition will not occur. Of

    'o ; thu pu-Au'es u the units could lead to i 6ituation

    wh,.lo one side can attrite the other, but the other unit

    cnn). .ittiiLwu the fi-it uniL. A non-zero index value is /


    tho nuinuer of We pa-ti- uldr L2x12 coe.f.ci.t iarix in the/

    H22
    Page 21

    3D -l,rras L.. COEFFICIENT (Figure 2). Since the

    COMBAT. INDEX is organized by day/night and weather

    con-a ti.onso thease factors are not included in the

    cot# Ficient array (Figure 3).

    4. 3 F ukA fij tpj.nnitioj Penalties.

    The ATTRI FION. CALCULATION Routine accounts for the

    ef"acti af ammunition or fuel depletion when it is

    clIculating th.a number of combat systems that will "attrit

    the anemy unit. A unit that is out of ammunition for a

    weapon system wjill have the effective number of that weapon

    sytem set to zero. This will prevent the system from

    inflicting casualties. A unit that i.s out of fuel may have

    the effective number of that system reduced a certain

    pert: on ge if the sstem is Puel dependent. This is

    spoFid iii the input data base. The effective number

    repr,.'.ents cthe equivalent number of weapons that the fuel

    penalty has reduced the particular combat system. A fuel

    pen.i1j maqj be 20%, for example, reducing the strength of a

    tOO weapon combat system to the same strength as an 80

    weapull combest 4stsf,. A unit may cause attrition only with

    th 'Ls tinc- that f ace the enemy unit. The number of

    iyt. ' ,or ti, i '. l.ruci,,y Lhu tei say hox are c:alcuIa-; :d f "or

    boIh 3ides. I addition the effective number of each combat

    ij;tem, fur rviuforciny uni&t- are added to the corresponding

    af~e(.ive tnumbar of the supported units combat systems. The

    H123
    Page 22

    QnJ.tj , Lues used in th actual attrition equations are the

    aL ition coafficient, the numbers of the attritor systems

    cind tie numbers of the attritee systems.

    4 Ob~servditjans.
    41.

    The number of casualties that is assessed cannot exceed

    Lho total number oF thrit Lype system that the attritee unit

    has. The &nqjust guide states that the maximum number of

    ca-iualties caused by area Pire cannot exceed the number of

    Lh.a paf.ticular type of system that is oriented toward the

    coMmul hex side. .The actual coding uses the same maximum

    number of casualties for both the area and aimed fire

    algorithms. This maximum is the total number of systems.

    The actual maximum of all weapons in the entire hex is more

    re'aliitic than the intended maximum of only the units facing

    th. ,. Ther.e does not seem to be any reason that the

    ef r(A: o'r' iodirect fire would be limited to the systems

    arj.4nted toward the enemg hex. Unspotted Pire can be used

    .a a harraSsmInGt technique and a very heavy bombardment

    ,.otld possibly wipe out an entire enemy unit or at least

    SoMW of the systems that are not oriented toward the common

    hog iide. The ATTRITION.CALCULATION routine matches each of

    tho 1Atriturs weapons against the attritee's combat systums.

    It is impl -,)L o no te that . he equo-iuns do rut

    ac .un , fi ny ii ieased vulnerability to an attritee

    iy iii (:
    au;d Uy /u I depletion. For ' example, is

    prupraled howitzev unit; would be more vulnerable to counter

    H24
    -~ ~~~~ ~~ 23
    Page g C. 2.3 --- ~.,~--.'

    U~z:L,., iu'L if it was ,u oF Puel and could not displace to.j "

    aeoca Ttion. The s-ime problem exists for ammunition. It


    ii, Ui:h eaier to kill tanks with TOW missilos when the
    tanl, cannot shoot back -to suppress the TOW gunner. Neither

    ch..; cueF'i ents nor thp+ equations take intko account the

    e+fects on the attrition ol the particular type of terrain

    whero the cumbat occurs''. The attrition process also does


    not reduce the ef.eF:tiveness of units that have been in

    combfat; for a long time. The designers may feel that any
    decrease in combat effectiveness caused by Factors such as

    wear aiid tear -on the .weapons or battle fatigue are balanced

    by the increase in combat power caused by the battle

    expel'Lence gained by the units.

    H25
    L 24
    u.a

    !ect&on b. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT

    Th .rpr o- aunLs suggested in this section are

    ro~r'i.,cd to the ground attrition routines in the CEP. As

    thu CEP simulats ground attrition in accordance with the

    geni',ally accepted principles of Lanchester attrition, it

    can Le dopLed "as is" unless extreme realism is required by

    the user. The ideal method for improving the model would be

    to i.a a cumba, arms ufficer with a programmer to review

    the model's ground attrition routines and insure that the

    as.sumptions and prq edures made by the designers are

    reasonable from a military viewpoint. Some concepts that


    are common knowledge to a combat officer may not be evident

    to -a diVilian.

    5. 1 .Eyu__ Id Amnuiti a VgnaLn 6ga


    Atj. _ttjilte Units.

    The JTLS.r attrition routine does not penalize the unit

    that is being attrited if it is out of either fuel or

    ammunition. Some combat systems are more vulnerable to

    enaiJ firepower when the are out of fuel or ammunition.

    Combat systems such as tanks or self propelled howitzers

    often riely on h.ipiv mobility for much of their protection.

    SP howitzers u4ually di.Lplace to a new location after everyu

    f1 j IIl5ISSion 1;ca j.oid e.iij counter-battet-y fiie. A unit

    tha.t i out of i'ut.l irujt remain stationary and becomes an

    ea~i targwL ro r enemny artiller.y. A uit that is out of


    Ammunition nia also be wore vulnerable to enomy Fir e. An

    H26
    .... .... ~~
    Page 25

    I1-2 U1 ', yej IFV can huld off enemy armored vehicles beyond

    the range of the enemy's weapons b-y using its TOW missiles

    a.Jd t,; Bushmaster cainnon. If it is out oil ammunition, It

    is -i relatively simple matter for the enemy vehicles to move

    c lu ? to the IFVE and destroy them. Tanks are much more

    vulnerable to anti--tank missiles when they cannot use their

    annun. tu up iess the enemy gunners.

    The- effects of .ammunition and fuel depletion can be

    sinulated mathematically in a manner similar to the way that

    fuel ,iepletion.is simulated in the current equatiotis. A

    fuel depletion and an ammunition depletion factor could be

    added to the att'ition equations. These factors would be

    part of the unit data base. If an attritee unit was out of

    fuel, the equation would multiply the combat power of the

    atritor weapoi systems by a Factor that was greater than or

    e, wL ' 1. If thei ystem did not depend on fuel for its

    p..r m: o.n (in fantrij for example), the Pactor would be I and

    iL wutld n*L increase the enemj combat power. If the unit

    wa:; more vulnerable when it was out of fuel, the factor

    ,autId br, g-
    ,ater' than 1. If a tank was twice as vulneralbe

    to f.neiny fire when it was immobile, the fuel factor would be

    2. fhe ammunition depletion factor would work in the same

    manler.

    H27
    - .dujij
    y C tmbz~
    a 1;~I - i:L2.

    t s t h j !; a re ii con Lj uuut c oinbt wi th the onesny. lose "

    Qv- ,: Ilb"" e f -FE:t i vm e .. I'hi s is because of the wear and

    ", ,.L lh.a i at 60.',s.strength after endur'in five days in

    0*to
    aLt' with ii, ditotiy w~u,(d so be .i:el~ CVItvP. a,~~frs

    hilt that L;S -:i"I 60% . ,uuhorized strength. Eacl' man in the

    I:
    aL .iI,d
    u it w(-uid nu !; b,.' o-- ccapablo or .i ,iutivated ,IS a

    Pa 011n th F'rosh unit because he would be tired, dirty, and

    ,., . k. He wuulu be less inclined to take risks ar

    .~jr ivej & ttack. His weapons would need'maintenance to

    .'r FT'I tile ef %ctS of five days of heavy u~age. The

    jnir: ;;uId nued a break oP a few days to regain its fighting

    , i.i.L . The atti'ition subroutine does not model this

    fC i on .units that are in combat. The CEP only subracts

    * ~ *~.I~iILqy ond It.fli


    V'r~ a uni is !itreiiqlh.

    01,Q W.:Iq to sii ulao a units degraded conybat ability

    :i,j. L w sut ,ac 1; utie por'c eot of is firepowe r For each day

    fs
    !r,c:m;ii,. coiitact byornd one day. A unit that wa s

    iH L-utac,f ur f ive continous days would have iti. combat

    ,ower' i
    ult.ip Ii -d bq ' t 1 rep resunt
    -, Fuu,. d- , of one

    LviiualIIj the
    } 2yr8tiio;ion. unJ. will become
    t Ci l q tn.ie i,~ f. j i id I.e o Ih
    tV nLo(ob e v Q c 6 Fti aIt i eS

    o; !. Ci i:
    In wouid enrourayuj( ccni dtt-h to rotati~t

    0 viel t.-o iti j n i~a i n Lh ti o


    ii -12efFS

    ~ * *~?,,*A..*%***..*~* . . '?*H28--.*2-.
    u iiu %Ih
    ttit au~ 1:.~ ti tun u1f uni t- tha~t aire out

    dui~ciVHnh ui timen i!5 to inoJify th& b a %ic

    ifisid Lancn;.,r ur ;i utritiun aquat ions wuuld bf-: 4

    B f, Q *1 -*(100- l*d) *FR .*AR *afB *fj H


    13 /-- .j jj j i i

    re-Fi re aEqu 1atiui:

    B r *13 iii *1f *P *2 Ci *(H *(100-. 1*d) **FR *AR + 8 *FS *AE)J

    H29
    4.inu;1 i t i o- avivi -i lab le switc h Ilon, -:- ff

    Nit1b e* o'' blu, ::qs t~l~


    ew u.f tyjpe i.

    -Type if blue weaput iystelln.

    Typo uf1 r-ed we~ipon system.

    Total number oil red weapon systems.

    F-oa'ctiari utF rwu unit sharing a hex edge with blue unit.

    F-i-,.c t tun ;uf b iuv uni t sharing a h ex 6dge wi th ied tiri t.

    o - FWL. COE4~1:IiCilit J lLY)O SIysteih agIIt 'I type SIJ-telIl).

    R - NL;tobei Cf ;'L~d 1;yitIs~ u.f typc?- j.

    1J wiiI i i 'll . II of t yp
    q i. j i upm
    I*Ljp u PI 1i- un iiL

    H30
    as of 271400 June 1984

    GENERAL FUNCTION COMMENTS

    1.2.1 Flayer De-Emphasis

    • Air play is extremely player intensive since it is modeled at


    he individual aircraft system level. An Army agency would
    equire Air Force augmentation to use JTLS or would not be able
    o play the air war properly. The resolution of the model is
    nbalanced between air, which is modeled at the individual
    ircraft weapon system level, and ground, which is'modeled at the
    nit level (during the test, ground units were normally brigades
    r higher). The higher resolution modeling of the air assets
    ppeared to contribute to the extremely slow speed of the model.
    urther user definition of model resolution level is required for
    he contingency analysis, educational, and training purposes of
    TLS.

    ENERAL FUNCTION-GENERAL

    • Weather is assumed to be clear and calm. If other weather is


    esired, the Controller must manually change the weather
    arameter. Other types of weather are permitted, however, each
    ype requires a new set of Lanchester attrition matrices for
    round attrition and modification parameters for air sensors and
    eapon systems. Weather does not effect national, strategic, or
    UMINT sensors nor does it effect ground movement rates. Weather
    hould be modeled as a stochastic variable. This could be
    ccomplished by a database entry of the probability per time
    eriod in the theater of each type of weather. A random number
    ould then be drawn every 12 or 24 hours to determine what type
    f weather is current. Without this modification, weather will
    ost likely remain clear and calm. Also, the movement algorithm
    hould be modified to include a weather decrement factor for
    ovement time. Further consideration should be given to
    ncluding weather decrement factors for the intelligence systems
    ther than air.

    JTLS models some of the effects of Nuclear and Chemical


    eapons but does not model release requests or permission. The
    odel should include player request for release and controller
    ermission for use with appropriate time delays for the theater.
    o nuclear or chemical weapons should be allowed to be employed
    y the model until the release order has been given.

    ~IlO
    4.- 1N
    U'*
    0>

    eA -
    z

    CL .4

    -as

    o IA

    us c

    a. LL
    * .00
    c LC) c44 '400

    - C ,
    .4..
    v CD05_

    5-19
    t

    ures:
    1. Participants
    2. Evaluation Check List
    3. Suggested Changes
    4. Implementation of User Specifications

    I8
    ;re, ,t

    minimum for continueal testing, with higher speeds


    red for JTLS to be fully usable by its sponsors.

    SLe of RsJLution.
    'here is a need for the users to define the
    priate level of modeling resolution for each
    ional area of JTLS. Air assets are modeled and
    ted at the individual weapon system lave., while
    d units are modeled at the level of combined arms
    Intelligence assets, except for the USAF, are
    gated to the functional area level. The
    ligence players cannot# as a. result, create and
    te collection plans. They cannt issue specific
    ngs or properly analyze :the results of
    lilgence assets activity. Army helicopter
    tions also require remodeling to properly reflect
    unique capabilities and employment. The ground
    movement algorithms and player commands must be
    ied to allow for more positive control of movement
    routes and unit sequencing.

    he contractor has successfully removed all data


    the model code as required by the requirements
    ient. During testing, JTLS has proven to be
    tire to data base inputs, particularly the infantry
    tion coefficients. The users must define more
    sely what each each item of data describes, specify
    nput parameter ranges, refine current data and
    er test the model sensitivity to data inputs. A
    data element dictionary is needed.

    ,. Naval Functions.

    ;aso line naval modeling reuirements have been


    d in a way that is very narrow in scope. TRo
    ain a joint modeling perspective, priority should
    yen to adding naval capabilities when future operat
    modeling enhancements are considered. Elaboration
    existing naval functions and the addition of
    bious operations is required, particularly those
    capabilities that impact on the land battle.

    17
    st

    TOTAL XXX

    CRITICAL AREAS

    The following paragraphs discuss those areas where


    5, in the opinion of the evaluation team, requires
    ediate improvement. These areas are noted in light
    the general criteria noted in Paragraph 6 and are not
    essarily tied to the detail of the functional
    lirements document.

    a. Scenario Preparation Proaram.

    The Scenario Preparation Program was not used to


    ate a data base For this test. The program failed
    rng the preceeding SPP test when an attempt was made
    load the full classified data base and when wrongly
    natted items of data were entered. At present, only
    Jet Propulsion Laboratory has the knowledge and
    ipment to prepare a data base for JTLS. While
    tware is to be provided to enable a user to enter a
    a base manually or from computerized data, manual
    m will be slow. To manually prepare the data base
    the scenario used in this test would take an
    israted one man year. This feature makes the Scenario
    Daration Program unsuitable for quick response
    tysis of unexpected contingencies at this time.

    The ratio of time simulated in JTLS to actual clock


    9 was far less than four to one. In order to be most
    *ctive, the game must operate at various speeds that
    controlled by the user. The current design allows
    allows for game operations at various speeds, ifs
    taad in the requirements document. There is no
    jrance, however, that the game and piayers will
    ,ally be able to achieve these maximums. The design
    L of four game hours to each real hour, as defined by
    users. has not been met during testing. Many
    tors contribute to actual game speed ratios which are
    ;ely dependent on the given scenario. While hardware
    software options exist to speed up the game, we
    lot be sure what their effect will be. Both Con
    ' Analysis Agency and the War College have expressed
    ed for achieving a speed ratio of at least 24*1.
    users must decide on what changes to JTLS are
    Jeptable to increase overall game executioon time,
    still maintaining an acdeptable level of model
    ilution. It is apparent that the design goal of 4:1

    61
    i test
    ,re "t

    The following observations relate to the general


    teria described above.
    a. 2ualit3L.
    Mean Time Between Failures 3 hrs, 5 min
    Mean Time to Repair 2 hrs, 18 min
    Total Run Time 49 hrs, 13 min

    b. Plauabilitu.
    Game Time:Clock Time Ratio 2.53:1

    c. Realism.
    Casualty Rate ?f10gO/day
    Rate of Advance +/-10 km/day
    Aircraft Exchange Rate X:I

    SPECIFIC FINDINGS

    The following statements summarize the observations


    the plalers and the evaluation team about whether the
    itures asked for in the user specification document
    -e present or not.

    a. Of the manditory items that could be observed by


    players or team, 91% were implemented as described
    the document.

    b. Of the desirable items that could be observed,


    were imple mented as described.

    C Of the total requirements as described in the


    :ument, 13% could not be evaluated by the players or
    im as either implemented or not.

    RECOMMENDED CHANGES IN THE SIMULATION

    Players submitted sheets describing deficiencies in


    ilism in JTLS that should be changed. The number of
    :h changes by component of the simulation are
    amarized below, and they are listed in detail in
    :iosure 3.

    Data Base XX
    Scenario Preparation XX
    Combat Events: Ground 37
    Combat Events: Air 27
    Combat Events: Logistics XX
    Combat Events: Intelligence XX
    Controller XX

    15
    njividual JTLS programs and subroutines has been
    onducted already with sponsor participation in the
    irst three functional validation tests.

    b. Scearioa* The test involves a theater level


    ampaign with 114 units on one side and 89 on the other
    it" combat starting at D+50. The campaign involves 23
    ivisions on one side and two and one third divisions on
    he other.

    c. Phase*. Phase I was run primarily to permit


    layer familiari zatrion by JPL. It involved using the
    ull scenario data set from game day zero to D+50 in
    hich there are is no combat. Primary items to be
    valuated during this phase include TPFDD events, LOGIN
    vents, Unit move ment and normal consumption of
    uiplies. Phase II involves the full use of the
    ntigrated system employing all 10 terminals and 27
    layers.

    d. Evaluation. The user requirements were


    ransferred to rating sheets, one of which was given to
    a:ih player Each player rated each requirement as
    a vLng been observed as being met, not being met or not
    bierved. These ratings were tallied as described
    *low. Where there was disagreement among the players,
    h.v qvaluabion team arrived at its own assessment.

    GENERAL CRITERIA

    In interpreting the player evaluations, the


    ,valvation team was guided by the following general
    ritor ia:

    g. QaMlit%. Did the software in the model work


    .ei! enough that it could be used and revised in the
    z -i r ae?

    b Playabilitu. Did the model work well enough to


    * used ;or driving field exercises and evaluating
    ontingencV plans in a reasonable period of time with
    ht players likely to be available?

    c. Realiois. Did the model's simulated 'esults loo'


    iko a realistic war?

    GENERAL FINDINGS

    14
    test
    re -t

    th4 acceptance test were essentially "big bang" type


    tests that involved full play of JTLS to find out
    ,hether specific programming features worked and what
    bugs would arise that caused systems failure. The first
    three functional validation tests were used to run
    individual modules of the simulation. During all tests
    model defects that were discovered were corrected on the
    spot.

    e. Present Test Proos. The functional validation


    tets were not intended to determine whether design
    spqcifications had been met or whether JTLS is a useful
    tool for its sponsors. The acceptance test is intended
    to provide the data with which to do both.

    4. TEST ADMINISTRATION
    a. Lcation: Center for Land Warfare
    Army War College

    b- jLj: 18 thru 29 June, 1984

    c Participants.

    Readiness Command 16
    Central Command 4
    Pacific Command 1
    Army Concepts Analysis Agency 3
    Army War College 7
    Air War College 4
    Military Academy 1
    Jet Propulsion Laboratory 10
    Contractors .3
    (See Inclosure I for names.)

    d. TIst Director: Colonel Leighton 0. Hasselgrove


    9. Hardwre r6JL
    ju. VAX 11/780 computer, two
    jiic drives, ten VTI02 terminal, four megabytes of
    .- .4rnal memory, a Graphover 9500 graphics system and a
    ~ 25" television monitor.

    5. TEST PROCEDURE

    a. General. The test is designed as a general,


    macro-level evaluation of the totally integrated JTLS
    syst"m This approach was selected because testing of

    :3
    . US E C Continaencu Pl lng .S LItask (CPS)
    ,_Lo Theater 1 2 OI Simulion £JIS Eui Jio
    Specification. Pasadena, California: Jet Propulsion
    Laboratory, February 29, 1984.

    d. "CAA Candidate User Acceptance Test Criteria."


    Bethesda# Md: Army Concepts Analysis Agency, 5 August
    1983. Cprintout3

    3. MODEL SUMMARY

    a. Description. JTLS is a stochastic, two-sided,


    Dlayer interactive simulation of combat atid logistics
    4o;- ground, air and naval forces in a theater of
    -.
    perations It was designed as an elaborated version of
    ,he McCllintic Theater Model of the Army War College.
    rt is to be used to "drive" joint service training
    1'cses and to analyze contingenct plans. JTLS
    coniists of 1.10,400 lines of executable code and 1014
    .14u1es, a very large simulation. It Jses four
    ta.;inals per. team; one each for the air# the
    ioJLtics, the intelligence and the ground-naval player.

    b Dessiane. JTLS is being built for the U.S.


    Readiness Command the Army War College and the Army
    on;.epts Analysis Agency by the Jet Propulsion
    Lab%.ratory in Pasadena, California.

    c. Desian Specifications. JTLS consists of


    aouroximately 110,400 lines of executable code and 1014
    rnooules, a very large simulation. The three sponsors
    hv? specified 187 design features desired in the final
    mo-lel (Par. 2. b.). The contractor's statement of what
    he intended to accomplish is contained in a separate
    document (Par 2. c. ). These requirements are
    aummarized below:

    Data Base Preparation 7


    Start/Restart Module 3
    Model Interface 10
    Combat Events 164
    TOTAL 184

    AddLtional specification items including thuse related


    to graphics, hardware and documentation have been
    formalized in a separate document (Par. 2. d).

    d. rtLvis Testin. Four functional validation


    tests have been conducted previously from October
    through May 1984. The final functional validation and

    12
    DR AFT
    FOR D I SC U SS I ON P UR P 0 SES

    U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE


    Center for Land Warfare
    Carlisle Barracks
    Carlisle, Pennsylvania 17013

    29 dune 1984

    :... i- Joint Theater Level Model User Acceptance Test


    Report

    " TEST GOALS

    The user acceptance test is the culmination of the


    .
    ,T. Phase I development effort. The goals cf the test
    a3 - t0"

    a. "Provide a means by which representatives of the


    ,hree sponsoring agencies, USREDCOM, US Army War College
    an-j US tArmy] Concepts Analysis Agency can exercise,
    .-orve and evaluate JTLS capabilities. "

    b. "Insure that the requirements as stated in the


    jT-S User Functional Requirements (Baseline) Document
    jF;_ 0-449) have been satisfied. "

    c "Determine if the JTLS system: as delivered by


    the Jet rropulsion Laboratory (JPL), is acceptable to
    the sponsors. " (Ref. 2 a. )

    "2 :EFERENCES

    a "Jotrot Theater Level Simulation ,JTLS User


    A n.ce Tet Plan. US Readiness Command, June 9,
    1934 SECRET

    b R. Roland, E. Roland and E. Kelleher, jr.


    Contingencu elinSubk k (CPS) Joint Theater Level
    !i
    tui on (JI.S) LUt. Functional Reu.i_"men t
    iA-4,j.i I ). Pasadena, California: Jet Propulsion
    Laboratory, May 6, 1983.

    Ii
    two~
    TVI.
    <

    (D
    >

    ld - f W-o
    APPENDIX 2

    ATTR1 TJTON. CA LC LLA 7-rON

    TnaA

    ci1k"" A 16 f4Ar

    -,AM (-q$J ..- ',. Sy

    -S .*.4
    APPENDIX .1

    Asgss CQM86AT

    sA rAwwE ATJI

    Do~ IW -P,

    1A

    - '1 an .1 -4p-
    Attri u. ainmuvn:ition deple'tion penalty, I- no penalty,
    pEn a I
    :i.-: Y.

    = nuiiiber ofl d.iyi4 in cotinuous combat boVL I day.


    (it.O-.-ti
    , i.;s.;
    , peni Lyt assessad.

    ,J~~-P * *.
    4 I,,

    H131
    GROUND FUNCTION-COMMENT8
    AP.5.0 Land-Related Functions
    a. Players should have the option of giving units with a
    WITHDRAW or a DELAY mission an order to destroy all bridges on
    their route as would be common in these type operations.

    AP.5.1 Combat Engineer Support System


    a. In addition to the currently modeled functions of lay or
    clear minefields and repair damaged targets, ground units'should
    be capable of mobility enhancement engineering functions such as
    road improvement and bridging obstacles. This routine should
    check for the appropriate supplies and the current activities of
    the unit which may take precedence over the engineer function.

    AP.5.1.1 Minefields
    a. Minefields should cause attrition to units that enter a mined
    hex without first giving a CLEAR MINE order.
    b. Attrition and movement delay caused by a minefield should be
    proportional to the amount of mining done in the hex by ground
    and artillery units. Currently only one density of minefield is
    modeled.
    c. Supply category mines should be decremented when a minefield
    is layed to force logistics players to manage this asset.
    d. Players should be able to override a unit clearing an enemy
    minefield before leaving the hex. This is a valid default
    procedure but may not be appropriate based on the unit's mission.

    e. Players should be able to direct a unit to mine adjoining


    hexes without the entire unit moving to the hex and dumping extra
    supplies to accomplish the move. At the current level of ground
    unit resolution, the entire unit would not execute the mining of
    nearby hexes.
    AP.5.2 Unit Movement
    a. Movement time through a hex is currently degraded for the
    number of friendly units in the hex (square root of 1+number of
    units). Movement time should also be degraded by the number of
    supply convoys in the hex and refugee movement if appropriate.
    Refugee movement could be modeled similar to supply movement and
    defined by the players or controllers.
    b. The route optimization algorithm.considers only speed of
    movement. Units will, therefore, move over the quickest route
    which may well be the most likely target for interdiction. e.g.
    the only bridge over a river. The algorithm should include a
    check for known, in range enemy units similar to the air
    algorithm check for ADA sites.

    %iV
    c. Players had difficulty in specifying routes that the units
    would follow in the game. Some of the discrepancy seemed to
    arise from the hex system which the players do not see. The
    problem was particularly noted when trying to pass units through
    narrow obstacles such as a mountain pass or over roads which
    showed on the map, but apparently were not in the database.

    d. After movement orders, some supporting units would bypass


    their supported combat unit and lead them into combat. Some
    logic similar to the follow-on option, modified to allow a
    supporting mission, should solve this problem.

    AP.5.3 Non-linear Attrition

    a. Attrition rates for some weapons should be a function of


    terrain, e.g. DPICM is less effective in forested and urban
    terrain than in open.

    b. Attrition rates should be a function of defender's time in


    position. This would account for a unit's ability to fortify its
    defenses over time and could be modeled through a fractional
    degradation factor that varied inversely to the time in position.

    c. The indirect fire algorithm currently attrits only that


    portion of the enemy unit which shares a hex edge with the
    attriting unit. Conceptually this is incorrect. An area fire
    system, e.g. artillery, can fire throughout an adjoining hex
    since most artillery systems have a range of at least 24km. In a
    similar manner, the direct fire algorithm is conceptually
    incorrect. Direct fire weapons attrit enemy thoughout the hex
    rather than just on the hex side shared with the friendly force.
    These current artificialities were created to prevent a clever
    distribution of unit strength from stopping movement of a
    superior unit. This could occur by placing a very small
    percentage of unit strength toward the enemy. When a database
    is created, however, the true meaning of the attrition
    coefficients must be kept in mind. For instance, in this case,
    the coefficient represents the rate at which one artillery piece
    in a force faced with a similar target array would attrit the
    various types of target weapon systems within the enemy array.
    The explicit fire mission attrition algorithm appears to be
    conceptually correct.

    d. Reinforcing units should be subject to attrition of those


    weapons systems which are affecting the reinforcement. This
    would represent counter-battery fire. In a similar respect,
    units which execute point fire missions should be subject to
    attrition.

    e. Units which are out of fuel and/or ammunition currently are


    degraded in their ability to attrit the enemy. In a similar
    manner, units which are out of fuel and/or ammunition should be
    attrited at a faster rate since they cannot respond to combat in
    the same manner as a totally capable unit.

    112
    .
    / • '-- ' - %3 .-- ' -' -' '' ""v '
    & : ~ ~~ * ~
    * : ' ~ ( >- ~
    . ' q
    f. The combat effectiveness of units which have been in
    continuous combat should gradually degrade over time. This can
    be done through a fractional multiplier to their attrition
    coefficients. When the unit exits combat for a period, e.g. 24
    hours, its attrition coefficients should be restored to full
    value.

    g. The players were uneasy with the attrition resulting in the


    model. Their subjective analysis was that personnel attrition
    was too high while combat vehicle attrition was too low. This is
    an obvious and fruitful area for further research.

    AP.5.4 Air Defense Improvement

    a. The model assumes perfect IFF and therefore no friendly


    aircraft destruction by 1.iendly air defense. Realistically,
    there will be a small percentage of friendly aircraft destroyed
    by their own air defense systems.

    b. Attrition rates of aircraft should be a function of altitude


    envelopes. Nap of the earth flights would have higher
    survivability, but a lower probability of detecting targets.

    c. Players cannot move air defense sites since they are


    categorized as targets. The players should be able to order an
    air defense site to move and the movement should be modeled as a
    ground convoy.

    AP.5.5 Target Specific Units


    a. Players should be able to define targets which were nit
    included in the original database. Some minor bridges or roads
    across terrain features could not be targeted for destruciton or
    interdiction since they wre not defined as targets.
    b. Players should be able to order interdiction or destruction
    of targets that are catergorized as their own color. This would
    allow units to destroy targets as they pull back and would not
    require the time delay of contacting the controller to change the
    target type.

    AP.5.6 Indirect Fire Missions

    a. An artillery unit which is in a reinforcing mission should


    have an upper limit on the ammunition it expends on that mission.

    b. An enhancement is needed in chemical and nuclear attrition


    to reflect the MOPP posture and/or capability of the units.
    Also, when a unit is in MOPP, moyement rates and weapon
    effectiveness should be degraded.

    c. An enhancement is required in nuclear attrition to create


    rubble and obstacles and to attrit weapon systems.

    11.3
    BP.5.3 Opposing Forces in Same Hex

    a. Airdrop and sealift cannot be placed in an occupied hex.


    This negates amphibious and airborne/airland capabilities.

    BI.6.0 Sea-Related Functions

    a. Strategic sealift is not modeled. MTM was capable of this


    function.

    b. Sealifted units are not attrited when their carrying ship is


    damaged.

    c. There is no check on ship capacity versus the size of a


    sealifted unit.

    d. Ships are never destroyed. When they are damaged


    sufficiently, their movement rate is slowed.

    e. Sealifted supplies are not destroyed or damaged when their


    ship is damaged.

    f. Damage to an aircraft carrier does not prevent it from


    launching aircraft.

    g. Subsurface and ASW is not modeled.

    h. The aircraft carrier routine does not check compatibility of


    the landing area and the aircraft.

    GROUND FUNCTION-GENERAL

    a. The Infantry units of the 101AA and the 82ABN Divisions are
    not modeled to depict their inherent airmobility. Reaction times
    to an air move order are too slow.

    ii. Thu 6CBAC is Gurrently modeled as a tactical air unit. This


    is incorrect. CBACs should be modeled as ground units with
    unique characteristics such as the ability to conduct screening
    operations or delaying operations over extended distances without
    becoming decisively engaged and to conduct deep raid and
    harrassing operations.

    c. Air cavalry modeling can be improved through the use of air


    scouts and the QRA.OAS mission. An air scout could be sent to a
    hex and modeled like a HUMINT Team that can see its hex and the
    six adjoining hexes. A team of attack ships could then be placed
    on QRA.OAS to support the scout. When the scout detected
    targets, the attack helos would scramble and attack the target.

    d. The database entries for Special Forces should be reviewed.


    Particularly the attrition rates and the movement rates seemed
    low.

    114
    e. The model did hot accept in all routines a change of unit
    headquarters-subordinate unit relationship.

    AIR FUNCTION

    AP.4.0 Air Operations

    a. One Wild Weasel weapon shuts down the air defense capability
    of an entire hex. It should only shut down the targetedADA site
    or a percentage of the ground to air attrition of a unit. An
    entire division's air defense assets would not shut down due to
    the presence of one Wild Weasel.

    AP.4.3 Flight Routes

    a. The fl.ight route planning algorithm should not give friendly


    ADA sites equal ayoidance weight as enemy sites.

    AP.4.7 Aircraft Carrying Capacity

    a. There should be a check for outsized cargo, e.g. tracked


    vehicles, versus aircraft type to prevent improper cargo in an
    aircraft.

    AP.4.8 Cargo Load Table

    a. Two or more aircraft units should be able to be assigned to


    airlift one ground unit. Currently only one air unit can be used
    and it shuttles until the ground unit is moved.

    AP.4.20 Aircraft Capability and Loading

    a. An enhancement is needed to reflect hardened shelters at an


    airfield in the vulnerability of the aircraft parked at that
    airfield.

    AP.4.23 AWACS and Tanker Withdrawals

    a. AWACS currently has perfect knowledge that it has been


    detected by the enemy which allows it to immediately depart the
    area. This should be reduced to a probability.

    AIR FUNCTION-GENERAL

    a. An enhancement is needed to reduce the maintenance, refuel,


    and rearm rate of an airfield which has suffered conventional,
    nuclear, or chemical attack, or is in MOPP.

    LOGI.STICS FUNCTION

    AP.7.0 Logistics-Related Function

    115

    -
    a. The supplying unit in the CROSS LEVEL command should not give
    up weapon systems unless specifically ordered by weapon type.

    BP.7.6 Transportation System

    a. Replacement units and follow-on units arrive at the current


    location of the parent unit, not a port or airfield. They should
    arrive at such a facility thereby requiring incountry
    transportation, loading the transportation network, and being
    subject to attrition during movement to their parent unit.

    LOGISITICS FUNCTION-GENERAL

    a. Disgarded supplies disappear from the model. They should


    remain for use by units which later occupy the hex unless the
    disgarding unit suffers a time penalty and destoys the supplies.

    INTELLIGENCE FUNCTION COMMENTS

    AI.1.4.3 Player Book

    a. Red unit information, similar to the blue unit information,


    should be included in the intelligence player book for the
    opposing side. That information would normally be available
    prior to hostilities. The information could be degraded by a
    certain percentage.

    AP.8.2 SLAR
    a. Army Corps level sensors, e.g. SLAR and ELINT, are not
    explicitly modeled. These assets are implicit in the strategic
    intelligence detection probability. These assets should be
    played at least to the level of being tasked to surveil a
    specified area for a specified time period and report at
    specified intervals to the stategic intelligence algorithm which
    will combine this intelligence with the overall intelligence
    list. The current modeling of these assets ignores the function
    of the intelligence staffs to manage assets and the scarce nature
    of these assets. It also ignores the rewards for concentrating
    the assets on certain areas of high interest.

    AP.8.3 Ground Sensors

    a. Tactical intelligence assets (organic to ground units) are


    modeled with a single detection range for all ground systems in
    the unit and another range for all air systems in the unit.
    These ranges should also be a function of terrain, weather, and
    light conditions as appropriate to the gensors in the unit. As a
    minimum, the detection range of the ground units must be a
    function of terrain in the adjoining hexes.

    b. Tactical intelligence asset* currently report only when


    queried. Players should be able to input a periodic intelligence

    116

    ~A A
    report parameter that would cause the tactical intelligence
    routine to report detections it has made since the last report,
    either to the player or merge these findings with the strategic
    report. An alternative would be to summarize the reports at
    division level and print them out with a division identifier.

    AP.8.4 HUMINT

    a. HUMINT Teams should be subject to attrition. This could be


    modeled by drawing a random number at the end of their mission to
    determine if they successfully returned or were destroyed.

    b. There should be a data input for the reporting range of


    HUMINT Teams to reflect their communications range.

    c. HUMINT Teams should store all intelligence reported since


    their last report and report this. Currently the teams c,.,y
    report what is in the hex at the time of their report. If the
    team detects an airfield, the number and type of aircraft at the
    field should be rqported.

    d. The HUMINT Teams should have a probability of detection since


    they would not be able to detect everything in a 8 km radius.

    e. The 30 minute status report from the HUMINT Team should


    contain their departure time from the current hex. If the player
    created an identifier for the HUMINT Team, the identifier should
    .appear on the status report. The teams should report to the
    players when they have returned to their parent unit.

    f. Players should have the ability to change the HUMINT Team


    mission once it is position by curtailing or lengthening the time
    in position or defining additional hexes to surveil after the
    current hex mission is complete.

    g. Parent unit SITREPS should include the number of HUMINT Teams


    available for assignment, or the total number and the number
    deployed.

    BP.8.1 Intelligence Summarization

    a. The volume of information in the summaries requires some key


    to that information which has changed from the last report. An
    asterick should mark those units who's location or posture has
    changed since the last report.

    b. The current strength column should only read to two decimal


    places rather than five.

    C. RECCE report content should include aircraft on board by


    number and type for any airfields which'are reported.

    BP.8.2 Jamming

    117
    a. Enemy EW coverage of a hex should degrade strategic and
    tactical intelligence detection probabilities in that hex. A
    simple multiplicative degradation would be sufficient.
    BP.8.4 Reporting
    a. Message Queue procedures hinder rather than facilitate
    dissemination of intelligence. Recommend the following changes:
    1. Prioritize messages by standard communications
    procedure, e.g. FLASH or ROUTINE.

    2. Within precedences, use the last in first out method to


    send the messages. Thus all FLASHES take precedence over
    IMMEDIATES, however within the classes, the latest message takes
    precedence over the others.

    3. There should be a screen recall utility for filed


    messages to allow further editing before printing.'
    4. Depending on memory space, allow the players some work
    file space to word process items for the game and print them.
    5. The scan command should have an option to scan all
    messages in a file rather than specifying the number in the file.

    b. Realistically, there would be intercept of such things as


    enemy SITREPs and intelligence reports. Recommend consultation
    with a SIGINT expert concerning this entire concept and modeling
    of the capability with appropriate probability of intercept.

    INTELLIGENCE-GENERAL
    a. Joint Command should be able to task national and strategic
    assets with an ability to specifyi point or area target (point,
    strip, or polygon), report interval, and duration of the
    requirement. Additionally, reaction time to include collection,
    collation, and reporting delays, should be included. A realistic
    constraint should be placed on the total number of simultaneous
    caskings on these assets. The players should be able to alter or
    cancel these taskings at any time.

    1 1 A
    McCLINTIC THEATER MODEL
    GROUND ATTRITION PROCESS

    Engineering Research Project Report

    By Cadet John S. Morris III

    J1
    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    rER PAGE

    , INTRODUCTION ............................................. 1

    PROBLEM DEFINITION ..... ... . ....... ... ........


    0.. . .. ..... . 1

    * TEST METHODOLOGY ......... ............... .. . .. .. . . 1

    THE MTM ATTRITION PROCESS .......... .................. . 5

    TEST RESULTS .... ....... ..* *


    * ... * **.................. 5

    0 SAMPLE ATTRITION CALCULATION............................ 10

    * CONCLUSION ..... ...... . ..... .......................... 11

    J2
    MORRIS, J.S. 1

    I. INTRODUCTION.

    The McClintic Theater Model (MTM) has been the subject

    of the USMA And Army War College (AWC) Model Validation


    Program (MVP). The purpose of MVP is to assist the AWC in

    providing combat model users with "confidence statements"


    about the outcomes obtained from MTM. This particular

    project analyzes the effects of key input parameters on the


    ground combat subroutine.

    II. PROBLEM DEFINITION.


    The MTM ground combat subroutine uses a simple

    homogeneous Lanchester equation dependent upon the modified

    strengths of the attacker and defender to produce attrition.

    The aim of this project was to determine how each of the

    input parameters modified the strengths of each combatant


    before the attrition was calculated and modified the

    resultant force levels as a function of time.


    III TEST METHODOLOGY.

    I investigated the effects of each of the eight input


    parameters identified by Cadet Bentley and Cadet Entner in
    their reports. These parameters are listed and briefly

    explained below.

    UNIT STRENGTH: This is a real number that indicates the

    relative combat power of a particular unit. The values in


    the Nato database (provided by AWC) range from 1.0 to 6.0.

    This is the parameter that is reduced as a result of combat.


    UNIT TYPE: This describes what type the unit is such as

    airborne, air force or armor. These serve to determine

    J3
    MORRIS, J.S. 2

    which actions are feasible for a unit to undertake. This


    can result in unrealistic combat results if certain types of
    units engage each other. For example, if an air force unit

    is attacked by an armor unit, the air force unit should be


    easily destroyed by the armor unit in ground combat

    regardless of the strength of its fighter aircraft

    represented by the Unit Strength parameter. The game also

    fails to take into account Unit Type in assessing terrain

    modifiers. An infantry unit would derive a greater terrain

    benefit from urban or forested terrain than armor units


    which perform best in less restricted terrain.

    ENGAGEMENT TYPE: This parameter describes whether the units

    in combat are considered moving or in position at the moment

    of contact.
    TIME IN POSITION: This includes how long the units have
    been in position before combat and how long since combat has

    started. This determines the defensive postures of the

    units. The postures are: deliberate defense (in position

    more than three hours for red units and in position more
    than 72 hours for blue units), hasty defense (in position

    between one and three hours for red units, three and 72

    hours for blue units) and meeting engagement (in position

    less than one hour for red units and less than three hours
    for blue units).

    AMMO AVAILABILITY: A 0/1 variable that records if the unit


    has any ammunition.

    POL AVAILABILITY: A 0/1 varible that records if the unit


    has any fuel.
    A4
    MORRIS, J.S. 3

    MINEFIELD/CONTAMINATION EFFECTS: This is the attrition that

    occurs when a unit is in a mined hex or a hex contaminated


    by nuclear or chemical weapons. The ground attrition

    subroutine does not include the effect of the initial

    attack, but it is included in a separate subroutine.


    TERRAIN EFFECTS: This is the effect of different terrain

    types on the attrition rates.

    UNIT ORIENTATION: This refers to how a unit's combat power

    is distributed within the hex it occupies. A given


    percentage may be devoted to each hexside.

    The effects of each of these input parameters was


    determined by both experimental analysis and analysis of the
    combat subroutine programming code. The object of these

    analyses was to determine whether the parameter affected


    combat as predicted by the source code and the game manuals.

    The experimental analysis involved conducting four


    separate battles simultaneously in each game run. Four

    battles were used to save time. A Soviet Tank Division


    attacked a West German Armored Division in each battle.
    Each red-blue pair was placed two hexes apart in an isolated

    part of the map. In each run the red (Soviet) unit would

    move into a hex adjacent to the blue (W. German) unit and

    combat would begin. All of the input parameters were held


    constant except the parameter under investigation. The
    experimental output was the attrition experienced by each

    unit. This would be analyzed to determine how each input


    parameter affected combat.
    Initially it was planned to conduct multiple runs of
    - ~ ~-. ~~, ~ '** % \ J
    MORRIS, J.S. 4

    each experiment to determine the statistical variance of the


    results. This proved unnecessary when all runs of the
    initial sets of experiments were exactly the same.
    Regardless of game time, starting time or game speed as long

    as all input parameters are the same, the combat results

    would be the same also. A subsequent analysis of the entire


    combat subroutine revealed that there were not any

    stochastic elements involved in the entire attrition


    process. All combat strength modifiers were determined
    directly by the values of the input values. All random
    combat attrition is a result of variations of the input

    parameters by the player or by other subroutines. An


    example of this would be a situation where bad weather
    delayed the arrival of an attacking unit long enougIr to
    allow the defending unit to assume a deliberate rather than
    a hasty defensive posture. This would result in greater
    attrition for the attacker than normal. This made multiple
    runs of each experiment unnecessary. Only two runs would be
    made of each experiment to insure that the results were

    correct.
    The source code for the combat subroutine was examined
    to predict the effects of each input parameter and to

    explain any unusual results. After much careful examination


    the attrition process became very clear. It was then
    possible to follow the attrition process for any engagement.

    The attrition process functions exactly as programmed in the

    code.
    J6
    7I
    RD-i57 322
    UCSSFED
    MILITARY ACADEMY(U)
    VCOMBT MODEL'ING EVLUTION
    M BETrENCOURT JUN 85
    WESTSTTES3/
    THE UNITED
    MILITARY TRCADEMY POINT NY
    F/0 9/2 N

    EEE EEEEh

    ELIE~hE~h
    NO *it , .
    MORRIS, J.S. 5

    IV. THE MTM ATTRITION PROCESS.

    It is necessary to understand how the MTM attrition


    process works to understand how the input parameters affect

    combat. All units are assigned a combat power value in the


    database. During combat this power is multiplied by values
    assigned to each input parameter. The attrition rate is

    generated using a simple homogeneous Lanchester type

    difference equation. This equation is:

    Loss -( l.-(Friendly Points-.03 Enemy Points) ) * 100


    2 hours Friendly Points
    . Where:
    Points-Unit Strength * Modifying Factors
    Loss- Fractional decrease in Unit Strength.
    l!odIfying Factors- The cumulative effect of the input
    parameters.
    The source code was analyzed to determine the effect of each
    input parameter on the attrition equation. The data from
    each battle run was used to confirm this prediction.
    V. TEST RESULTS.

    The effects of each parameter are explained in this


    section along with the effects of daylight, darkness and

    weather.
    UNIT STRENGTH: This directly affects the attrition process
    through the variable points. This strength is multiplied by

    the modifying values of the other input parameters. The

    combat losses of a unit are reflected by a decrease in this


    strength. This is exactly as predicted in the program and
    user manuals.
    UNIT TYPE: The only effect of this parameter is to

    T T T~a r " h ' J7 ,' 6 '


    MORRIS, J.S. 6

    determine the actions that are feasible for a particular


    unit to perform such as air attack missions or indirect
    fire. It has no effect on ground combat. This is as
    predicted in the code and the user manuals.
    ENGAGEMENT TYPE: Whether the attacking or defending unit is
    still moving toward its destination or has already arrived

    when it makes contact has a significant effect. Both test


    results and code analysis indicate that a moving unit
    sdffers a 60 percent reduction in combat power for the first
    four hours of combat. This could be taken to represent the
    greater firepower that a unit that is able to deploy into a
    prepared attack formation would have over a unit that runs
    into the enemy while still in a march column type of
    formation. Four hours does, however, seem to be an
    excessive time period to penalize a moving unit. A unit
    should be able to recover from the initial shock of combat
    and deploy into an attack or defensive formation within two
    hours. The game designates the attacking side as the side
    with the shortest average time in position during each two
    hour period. This does not have any other effect on
    attrition (SEE FIGURE III).
    TIME IN POSITION: The time that a unit has been in position
    is used to determine what type of defensive posture the unit
    is in. The posture significantly effects the units combat
    power. For Blue units: Meeting engagement- time in
    •4I oasition less than three hours. Hasty defense- in position
    between three and 72 hours. Deliberate defense- in position
    greater than 72 hours or at game start.
    J7.
    MORRIS, J.S. 7

    For Red units:


    Meeting engagement- time in position less than one hour.

    Hasty defense- time in position between one and three hours.


    Deliberate defense- in position greater than three hours or

    at game start.
    The effects of each posture are:
    Meeting engagement: Does not change combat power.

    Hasty defense results in a 50 percent increase in combat


    power.

    Deliberate Defense increases power by 200 percent.


    Both the attacking and defending units are modified in this

    manner (SEE FIGURE IV). Neither the game manuals nor the

    program code offer an explaination for the different times


    to assume a given posture by red and blue units. There does
    not appear to be any reason that red units should have an

    advantage when assuming defensive postures. It is not clear

    whether this was an intentional difference or an error was


    made in the code.
    AMMO AVAILABILITY: Any unit that completely exhausts its
    supply of ammunition during combat is immediately destroyed.
    This occurs even if both units are out of ammunition at the

    same time.
    POL AVAILABILITY: Any unit that runs out of fuel in combat
    is assessed a 50 percent reduction in combat power.
    MINES: Minefield attrition is assessed independently and

    concurrently with combat attrition. This is accomplished by

    a separate subroutine. Mines do not affect the ground


    combat attrition equation. The attrition from minefields is
    MORRIS, J.S. 8

    in addition to combat attrition. This makes sense from a


    real life point of view. Being trapped in a minefield would

    make a unit more vulnerable to attrition if it remained

    stationary, while the minefield would damage or destroy some

    of the forces if they attempted to maneuver to reduce their


    vulnerability to enemy fire (SEE FIGURE V).

    CHEMICAL/NUCLEAR CONTAMINATION: Units are not affected by

    contamination beyond the effects of the initial spray or


    blast. The users manual predicts that a unit will lose one

    percent of its power every hour that it is in a contaminated


    hex. This does not occur in actual play. The discrepancy

    exists because the nuclear and chemical attrition

    subroutines have not been coded in the version of MTM


    furnished to USMA.

    TERRAIN: Each hex is assigned a value representing the type

    of terrain predominate within the hex. The method for


    assigning a value to a terrain type is not completely
    explained, however, more restrictive terrain such as

    forested areas and urban areas are assigned higher values


    than less restrictive terrain such as open areas. Negative

    terrain values cut combat power in half. Positive terrain


    values less than two do not change the combat power. Values

    between two and three double combat power while values of


    three or more triple it (SEE FIGURE VI). As mentioned

    before, the game does not discriminate between unit types in


    assessing terrain modifiers. Obviously different types of
    units are helped or hampered differently by a certain
    terrain type than other types of units. Urban terrain
    Jl0
    MORRIS, J.S. 9

    triples the combat power of any type of unit. This may be

    try for an infantry unit, but few tankers would consider

    their units to be at an advantage in restricted towns and

    cities. In real combat, tankers would try to bypass urban


    areas but in the game it would be advantageous for tankers

    to move into urban areas to gain the advantage of the 3.0


    multiplier. The terrain modifiers should be put into a

    matrix that indexes the multiplier by both terrain and unit


    types.
    UNIT ORIENTATION: MTM does not distribute a unit's combat
    power within its hex. Orientation is not simulated in MTM.

    DAY/NIGHT AND WEATHER: These parameters have no effect


    whatsoever on the combat process. No effect is coded and

    none is claimed in the users manual. These parameters have

    an effect in other subroutines which in turn may affect

    parameters that do have an effect in the combat subroutine.


    This is an obvious weakness of the model. It cannot be
    assumed that all units in the theater are equipped with

    Standard Target Acqusition and Night Observation (STANO)


    devices or that the STANO devices make a unit as effective
    as it is in clear daylight conditions. It is reasonable to

    expect that attrition rates would decrease at night or


    during foul weather. The troops are more lethargic, morale

    is often lower and targets are harder to acquire and track


    during the night and in foul weather.
    Each unit's combat power is multiplied by each
    modifying factor to produce the friendly and enemy point
    values. These values are then inserted into the attrition

    ...'..
    .
    . .
    MORRIS, J.S. 10

    equation to determine the loss rate for each two hour

    period. After all of the units' losses have been

    calculated, they are subtracted from the units' strength


    ratings. The combat subroutine reduces the percent rating

    and the unit strength rating only. Another routine depletes

    the appropriate amount of expended supplies.


    VI. SAMPLE ATTRITION CALCULATION.
    The following combat situation illustrates how the

    attrition process works. In this situation a red tank unit


    with a strength rating of 4.0 attacks a blue armor unit with

    a strength of 6.0. The red unit is moving toward hex AW 33


    when it makes contact with the blue unit in AW 35 and halts

    in hex AW 37. The red unit is in a hex with forested


    terrain (2.0 value). The blue unit has been in an open

    terrain hex (1.0 value) since the start of the game. Using
    this data, the attrition rates generated by the game can be
    reproduced. The terrain values correspond to a particular
    combat multiplier value. For the red unit in forested

    terrain this multiplier is 2.0. The blue unit is in a


    deliberate defensive posture since it has been in its

    position since the game's start. This multiplies its combat


    power by 3.0. The red unit has been in position for about
    one hour which places it in a hasty defensive posture with a
    multiplier of 1.5. Because the red unit has not reached its

    destination hex and it has been in its position less than


    four hours since it-made contact with the blue unit, it will
    suffer a 60 percent penalty for moving. It will have a
    combat multiplier of .4.
    I I II IIII lll i ,,
    J12,: ,,' : , , ; ' (*-.,,i *
    MORRIS, J.S. 11

    After calculating all of the multiplying factors, the

    computer will calculate the points for each side. This is


    done by multiplying the unit strength by each of the

    multiplying factors. For the red unit this would be: 4.0 *
    2.0 * 1.5 * .4 - 4.8. For the blue unit this would be: 6.0

    * 1.0 * 3.0 - 18.0. In calculating the losses, these values

    would be substituted into the attrition equation. For the


    blue unit this would be:
    (1.0-(18.0-(.03*4.8))/18.0)*100-.8%

    For the red unit this would be:

    (1.0-(4.8-(.03*18.0))/4.8)*100m11.3%

    These results match the actual attrition rates generated by

    the game for the first two hour period. If more than one
    unit was involved, the game would sum all of the points for
    each side before calculating an aggregate attrition rate for

    each side. If either unit was out of POL its strength would

    be cut in half. Either unit would be eliminated if it was


    out of ammunition regardless of the status of the opposing

    unit.
    VII. CONCLUSION.

    The MTM combat subroutine performs exactly as it has

    been progranmed. The major flaws in the attrition


    subroutine arise from the fact that it completely ignores

    the effects of weather or day/night conditions on ground


    combat. Another significant deficiency is the lack of any
    type of documentation available at USMA that states how the
    values used as unit strengths, terrain values, time in

    position modifiers and the .03 attrition rate coefficient

    * .3
    MORRIS, J.S. 12

    are determined. These values may have simply been pulled


    out of thin air and have absolutely no relevance to real

    world conditions. The MTM combat subroutine does, however,

    provide a workable system to simulate ground combat

    attrition.
    Further research must be performed in two areas: how

    to modify the program to simulate the effects of daylight,

    darkness and weather and what are the appropriate values to


    uses as unit strengths and modifying coefficients. The MTM

    model could then be modified to provide a much more accurate

    simulation of ground combat attrition.

    The MTM model in its current form is a useful tool to


    give students a feel for what it is like to command an
    integrated theater force in combat. Beyond this it is
    highly unsuitable because too many factors are ignored in
    the combat process and those that are addressed have not

    been documented to establish their reliability. If the MTM


    model is to be used as a tool to teach strategy or to test

    hypothetical scenarios for planning purposes, the model

    should be modified to include all factors that are believed

    to significantly effect ground combat and all of the values


    used in the program should be checked to insure that they

    represent the real world situation.

    J14
    FIGURE-I. - ATTRITION TABLE

    ATTRITION

    Effect on

    Cause Comibat strenath SuD~lies Delay

    (;02%BAT Loss-( - (Frienl o-.03 Enemy Point~ 100% Movement


    2 hours. Friendly Points R Stopped

    Entering 37. Loss None 2 to 4 hours


    . 1t nef i old

    Entering Nuclea3 1'' every hour unit


    Contaminated remains in contaminated None to l hours
    Area area.

    Entering Chem- 1;. every hour unit


    ical or Bio- remains in contaminated
    logical area. None 2 to 4 hours
    Contamina ted
    Area

    Recei ving Varies with number of Varis wil number ,,


    Nuclear sorties or volleys and sorties or volleva and 0 hours
    Attack weapon type. and weapon type.

    Receiving Chem- Varies with number of Varies with number of


    ical or Bio- sorties or volleys and sorties or volleys and 0 hours
    logical Attack weapon type. weapon type.

    1 Aircraft Varies with aircraft type Varies with aircraft type 15 minutes per
    Sortie and target type. and target type. unit sortie

    1 Artillery Unit Varies vith artillery or missile type generally 15 minutes per
    Volley 1% loss for a full-strength volley unit sortie

    J1J5
    FIGUpRE-Il - TERRAIN EFFECTS

    TERRAIN EFFECTS

    Trafficability Combat
    rerraina Type Reduction Multiplier

    OPEN 1.0 1.0

    FOREST 2.0 2.0

    URBAN 3.0 3.0

    MOUNTAItJOUS 5.0 3.0

    GOOD)HIGHWAY 0.33 1.0

    POOR ROAD 0.50 1.0

    BRIDGED RIVER 0.5 1.0

    RIVER 2.0 1.0

    ANI[TANK DITCH 3.0 1.0

    M1NEFIELD 2 to 4-hour delay 0.5

    NUCLEAR CONTAMINATION i to lk-hour delay 0.5

    CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL 2 to 4-hour delay 0.5

    CONTAINATION

    NOTE: The effects listed above are those currently in the program. Other

    effects such as superhighways, dirt roads, narrow rivers, and wide

    rivers could be added.

    J16
    LOSS RATE- %

    -a

    _ ""t . 3
    ,'

    JI m
    co
    -. o
    -4
    I I--
    p C2

    -- .1 "

    " =_ --

    01 I
    FIGURE-II
    *.~ 0
    .'z

    - I IC
    *,tE

    Ni (1?
    ""~ 'flaI~lI ~ lt /' *~iI,',I ~ ~ i . . , : •- - ,
    LOSS RATE- 2

    .0 It ft*

    01r

    asn

    UP
    COm

    _
    W
    - 4=

    = 30 =

    = 0n

    r-"

    m " =m
    4, -m

    __ _ _ _F _ _ _
    I GU RE- I V

    J18
    Miles,K.F., 10

    determine how much emphasis should be Placed on the results.

    Certainly, a 2.62 Percent attrition rate found in this run


    of FOURCE does not refute a 3 Percent attrition rate used in
    MTM.

    S1W IrT~MS EDEEIWWEL&ESEQBCM

    Although the 2.62 Percent attrition rate found for blue

    forc**5 im this runm of FOURCE does not refute MTM's 3 Percent


    b-ate, it &Iso does not adequately justify its use. Further

    research Can be , Performed on, this subject by chocking the


    -attrition rates *rom other accepted models.
    .A determination of the red- forces attrition rate in
    -FOURCE, can. be. Performed very easily. Using the steps
    Provided in stag* 2 of in the methodology of this report,
    this check, can' be Performed with-in a reas-onable amount of
    time.
    Dataprovided by the Combined Arms Operations Research
    Activity located in Ft. Leavenworth,Ks.vis available here
    at the Academy. 'This data is on the Eur V wargame.
    Additional information needs to be rtmuesttd before analysis
    on this data can be performed.
    To any cadet who Pursues further researct- in this area,
    I offer some- sound advice based upon my own research
    *xperienc*;remember the first step to any Problem in
    quantatativ* decisionmaking,THINK ABOUT THE PROBLEM. Before
    any information is extracted and manipulated from the large
    quantities of data available, be sure You fully understand

    K 12
    Miles,K.F. 9

    the attrition rate is an accurate representation of FOURCE's

    overall rate of attrition. The high standard deviation is


    an indicator of FOURCEes stochastic nature.
    The FOURCE mode) is an accoipted model by the modeling
    community. It.. Places Particular emphasis on the simulation
    .Of staff riaformanc* :and combat information/intelligence
    _flow in~ order to measure the relative combat effectiveness'
    of .command and..~to. n intelligence system
    aitenatves.(Pris ~4D Athough the main emphasis mar

    -not be* ~ e.pwsnaino -combat, this section of


    **FOURcEspteade s valid'liwits to. determine losses.
    Thus, inf ormt Sort _*XtpCte4 frowm-,.Jts attrition output* is
    14. 1,. -a .

    -The 2.*42 percentLives e-.vidence to support MTM-s


    Percent atii, te-The..stochastic nature of FOURCE's
    .attrition is not r*Present.in. KTMs combat subroutine. A
    new algorithm, which would fluctuate the attrition rate in
    "'hs combat subrout ine, can be written,but this would not
    be Practical. Tuth. attrition rate would fluctuate in a-
    stochastic mannerv. butL without vaLlid inputs to decide when
    the rate would fluctuate, the subroutine would still not
    rtal istical ly represent actual combat.

    022MBY
    A check on the reasonableness of MTM's attrition rate

    has been performed. DePending on how much confidence a

    erson-has in this single run of the FOURCE model,will

    Ki11
    Ilil*s,K.F. 8

    3.. The change In strength due to ground combat, from


    steP 2, was divided by the startinst strength of the division
    to obtain the fractional-105505 over the 30 minute interval.
    Kr4",T uses, the, #%uatian
    i.0'C(LUE(.3)RD)/LU)elO0wpercent loss
    to f :urth*Prrt.loss, Per Period.CDLUE,RED represent
    * bue nd e"4tr*nithzY';T1.iseatuation can be transformed to
    *~i h~4 #retattrition
    -sae rate. The resulting

    " ~ . *~tO ~ -..fractional loss. If we


    * s i ' ~ o h4 *ftuation' we then have &li th. data
    meede~~Aft~.!
    Ut.tu o find FOURCE,s attition rate

    - o o' a&,, 4. W: fk * 5444

    - 5Th. resu Ain'attri-tion rte need to be raised to


    4 I

    * t"e 4th power to convert the rate from a 30 minute interval


    * t. 4.4 hour Inte~rval- whfch% -is used by MTM.

    ~
    - . -.Iperformed arodression analysis on the attrition rate
    against time.. An Feton the results concluded that I
    c~uld'not P*Ject the null hypothesis which states that the
    slope is equal to ;*ro.(Annex E)This means the attrition
    rate i s not really affected by the time. I found the mean
    of the attrition rate and found the attrition rate to be
    2*42 percent with a standard deviation of 5.81 percent. The
    results of the F-test support my conclusion that the m tn of

    - K10
    Mi I s,K.F. 7

    liven at 30. minute -.


    4ntervals. Using the "summary of

    engagements" and th*e" 30 minute output on "'maneuver unit


    weapons. and ammo,01 Was able to compile additional relevant
    data. Oueto the stochastic..nature of FOURCEv I no longer
    Pursued the Possibilitw of aggregating the attrition rate at
    battalito" level to divi*
    s ion level1 . placed my emphasis on

    * .. ~..tin*.to-deternen tbraoalns of MTM's 3 percent

    tition rate..

    ~~Avti
    ... I aT atlion, was in contact-# the entire
    * 'diVfsfon,Was'-:SUbsqegi-tl, In ctontact. I tabulated the

    r4*0~its, startin' frow-.0,omirnutes up to 1290 minutes, as the


    btut'-division. fepresrAt~d in FOLJRCE, RUN 726, was in contact
    for the period fpom 45- minutes to 1289 minutes. I

    manipulated the darta aecordin9 to the following stepsi

    - -1The -OverallV atitins strength of the blue, division


    dwring-the 30 minute it~terval was subtracted from the ending

    2.Th* change In strength, obtained in stem* 1, included


    losses due to air. . TM- has a separate Air subroutine
    ttherefore, I only wanted results from FOURCE which
    * reflected losses due to ground combat. From my FOURCE data,

    * I added the losses due to air attack to the overall change


    In strength.

    K9
    Miles,K.F. 6

    F distributions there was significance in the regre~ssol

    between the attrition rate and tim*.CAnnex A) The high


    standard deviation, the low correlation coefficients, and
    the Plot of attrition vs. tim* (Annex C), caused me to
    Pursue my investigation of the regression.equation.

    APlot of the standardized residuals showed 3 of


    .the 40 -data Pointiss falling outside the (-2,+2)
    interval.(Ann*XB) Those outlierrwere noted when I first
    P*rssed the data.. In .certain cae, outliers can and'
    .should be .discarded.to better fit a regression equation. In
    this Particular case the. outlieinif Points are just as. much
    .,Part of the siod*V-as. any of the othr output Points. The
    occurance of+ the- oatitrs informed, me of the stochastic
    nature of the FOURCE model.
    A regression of the attritton. rat* against time and
    minimum distance gav* me a better model statistically, but I

    still observed outlicing points. (Annex D)


    Ibegan to manipulate my variables to redress a. better
    fit line to th. -data. Even though I arrived at better
    models statistically. I disreiarded these MOdeS aind
    discontinued my Pursuit in manipulating the input data. I
    was trying to force the data to fit the model. I was trying
    to Odevelop a statistical reationships among variables that
    were completely unrelated in the Practical sense."(Hines
    P365-366)
    Output on the- number o-f weapons and ammunition
    r*fljflg(t* measure of strength in the FOURCE model) was

    K8
    - .... . tiles.K.F. 5

    The FOURtM date arrived in the form of .40 Pounds of


    computer Prin~touts. My. strategy for attempting to obtain
    relevant re*sults about attrition rates in FOURCE was to

    FIRSTv fInd, the r * I vant. data.-


    ._,_ECOND,*xtractInd. tabulate this data.
    THIRmanplatt this data so it corresponds
    w4itht dat. osat-Pu. or4. attrition rates
    ~7fis h.
    FOURM. organiz* and describe the data f rom

    STAGM -'.

    My initial intentions were to agmrelate the. battalion


    level attrition rates Provided in the FOLJRCE output to

    attrition rates for adivision level force, which could also


    be derived from the FOURCE output data.. This meant I had-to
    first work with the output of battalion engagements. A
    summary of each. battal -ions .engagements for the blue force
    was liven at the end of RUN 726's CAA Printout. I organized
    this data in terms of Percent strength attrited, time in
    contact, and minimum distance between units in conflict. I
    first regressed the attrition rate against time.
    Surprisingly, at a,95 Percent level of confidence. using the

    K7
    M il**,K.F. 4

    ,other validation work on tITtt and gave me a general


    * . understanding of the model. ~NadaL.and..Simulaiin...aLaad
    - ~ Cambat, explaine4 -the concept of usingl historical data to
    m,*dict future, events. More, importantly, this book informed
    - tof-the areIation -between casualtY rates and the size of
    * -the "Forc* in &obt

    . .' Do aAtjiooddinst Sav, me an excel lent

    J, f he n-o LaLnchester.*equations can be used.


    *41wveu

    Thesa f h Lanchestir- otuation- in M14 is very basic and


    ~ ~ts
    bok ~t in depth than was necessary for my

    ~ : Q 1 fyu4 ti~AvorVt'y w.#orthwhil*, as it,


    Aai*#wd d tn~n
    durngthr study of. analytic
    *In~die el4SO~ationsp Research 11). Lanrbexaer
    Ba. -showed me the extensive. applications of
    Linchester, equatins
    ~q
    -~ m ume~ *dScIsA&.an.....ai fami Iiar ized me with
    *.....another tiachnique 'of -combat. modeling. - The extensive use of
    tor ica I data and' the us*
    i a+ of &n "operational letha-lity
    ww qte' iters ting.
    R'i The many variabl*s* some
    -~ -no-qanifabe~that.
    . -. effect-attrition were addressed in

    t hI a work. AfteV reading this book, I became fully aware


    that I should try to-avoid trying to force a model to fit
    the data. Converselyv I wanted to avoid trying to force the
    data to fit the models
    "Modeling Command,. Convtrol, and Communications" and
    *Tabl* 1. U.S. FOURCE Reader-'s Guide' became my Bible in
    terms of understanding the FOURCE model and data.

    K6
    Mi I s,K.F. 3

    untaeestoiftu.for. .1ardo unit models 'have boon


    UhSUCCessful.
    At th* beginning of my reseaLrch, it was my intent to
    seeIf
    he ttrt~q raesAn smaller unitsrcould somehow be
    aggegt~
    t ft~* ttitonraesoflarier size units.
    RT
    s it.lve.l mnod* which-, attrites division size
    at seals I~~@~
    -~ models such as FOURCE, I

    Laxkt 4reip the battal Ion le*vel attrition

    v-t*k qeffail~t- for,


    Co~ the combat

    na
    aftfte ~rIfMOdat alteay accepted cma o~s

    * . will ~ abe t.4e~emin* the# reasonableness of MTMs


    atFiIf~ff iceAlt4, . )b* able4 to determine a new

    *,*aority of the reading, which I have done


    Th for my
    research, -was .%comPleted -during the first Part of the
    semes*ter. jluch. of the, readin was background reading on MTM-
    and combat mod inVW
    "Combat IModeling, Evaluation at USMI and 11A Detaile d
    Analysis of, the ilcClintic Theater Model1 acquainted me with

    K5
    r- - w ---- ~ a- - -
    M.ilsK.
    I F. 2

    -, As interest in the use of the McClintic Theater


    Mod1 9grows, so dos the interest in validating the model
    and its, dtabase The United States Military Academy is the
    -P - pim sourc*fe efforts directed toward the validation of
    mdl. ir
    Fcvl tii, as.. wl as cadets, take part in the
    %M1 144t-VR W*,- 7 o v R8 ndividual research proJect,
    .W hoe#~~urkon
    ei :th4validation of one phase of MTh.

    haedoetd~
    tf1
    m"'girh efforts toward
    ~ ~w4~saft~ 'as well as in other combat
    ~' ~ehit*4e1U4ihft #,obabil1itY and kill
    '.,~~A bSIWMt "*1 u wlt tical e*nvironment and
    waonflal s deai s,' when determining how much a
    wU ho*. Oe Ottt*:V over ' i vn Venghth of time. These
    1tt
    im, 0tmiin fctors, are based upon facts and data
    ae9&,athrd-
    fwih from weapons tests, tactics
    ~ ctual fI* ld experiments.
    oaqas These models
    _9noral I-i,*
    have t fh"hresol ution and are accepted by the

    4mod t "vciisnItV.._becaus* f their reliable ipt


    '4~3~temtrcsanohr inputs of the small1 unvit
    lev *ots were to be, used in larger army or theater size

    models* the program for the larger model would be extremely


    )enfithy and woul d take considerable time to run. Beside the
    fact.,thatr this Information would place a high demand upon

    a..the computer, It.Isalmost impossible to determine how these


    inputs would change as.the s-ize and diversity o.f the units
    in contact increased. Attem'pts to aggiregate Input for small

    "~ . K4
    TABLE-OF CONTENTS

    CNAPTER PAS

    0 II~~1 PROBLEN *...*..

    III PROLEM

    IV REV OF IEAUE.*........... .**...

    vi- RESLTS @CUIM.................. a

    Iic SMUSTIONS FOR FURTHER EERI.............O

    i .M
    ABSTRACT

    The model validation program, of the McClintic Theater


    M1ordelI at JSVIA, was- '-ifitiated upon th* request -of the
    Commandant, Lt.So, Army 1er"Collg.
    I *This research'. raper
    investigates ,the Vali.dat ion -of' on* phase of MTM.; The 3
    Pecetattrftionj Lrate 1w MThMs combat subroutine has been
    a~asin*ed' kliv &t'o
    ;ba
    'dele*rs familiar with MTh. By
    .vatuaatind th4 ettrfit*1 'hr"Ots inK- accepted'combat models, a

    .. *'.k oil 0*O~ tii rate in 11Th can be

    <.Attetw'~4 fr'eat.
    #t~ battal ion , lvel
    o
    a&t trr ti~f o ** but because of the stochastic
    A~tw*
    f att~'itin at" th. ation-- evel, thisagrato

    was n*7 -onoer.T purs-uedo ..


    Reseaich 'COntrinued wiith the vmvhasis
    eitplaced' on detrmihnn the. reasonableness of' MTh's
    attrition 'rate* .. '

    ''The attrition- te found In the accewted FOURCE.: model


    was 20.62 u'ertento TMit'2&42 percent attrilt ion rate rovides
    d4&n Ce to suppot 'MMhsa rate- of' 3. Pbemcent, although it
    do" nat rovid*.a full Justification. Continued research
    *on this oubJect* It necessary to fully Justify the use of
    *'MTMt's attrition rate. Th*e rsults of this research report
    do Provide a 'confidence statement for the use of the 3
    Percent rate.

    K2
    IREPO'N Y~EATTRITION
    --- RATE COEFFICIENT IN
    -, - ,

    CEATER MODEL

    lR48V-lIDUAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH PROJECT REPORT

    A -CAVEr KEVIK F, "'MILES

    47

    Ki
    LOSS A0E-14

    140
    SL W
    I 0a IIIII
    4D* Da
    Ilm m ~
    ow -IN
    Iumo C

    * S1

    FIGURE--V

    6&* /Z20
    LOSS RATE- I

    pp pp -4

    4c .

    WOO
    49' .**o

    401 4
    44

    30302w30C
    9 pD

    J191
    Aftliles,K.F. 1

    why You need the data. The operations to be performed on

    the data are relatively simpleobut the time wasted

    Performing these operations can be enormous if a logical

    approach-is not taken.

    "4.,A' V

    '4 ~.Vt ~ K13


    Miles,K.F. 12

    DIDLiOGRAPHY
    A. Works and Sources Cited
    BettencourttLTC Vernon M6.: Jr. "Combat Model i Evaluation
    -at USMA." Combat Mod~ling Researchv United States
    military Academyl 1964.
    C1Iaanr; LG. Jr. odeind and SI-mjlation.AL Land
    cnak.t AttawntaGa.* Ga. Tech Rsch. Inst.9.1983..
    CPs~~T obt ADetaile4d Analysis of the McClintic
    -,-TheaLter 1o0"T.,~~ser United States Military

    Hn'6*6 liry and Statizlics in


    ~En~Teeci~ andManaant"Sclancaa2nd Ed.. New Yorks

    1 1tr J.5* FOURCE Reader's


    OTa~be
    by-;
    TADMSy atems Analysis Activity, White
    Pts1e';'anitg';
    41,nd New" Mxico, 1979.
    ~ iubi~,Ra~aj N.>~'Md.Tng ommndControl nd
    2 ~~
    4 Cumntaton~'It Atm TR CSytm Analysit
    ,*ci~iY,"WhtaSands* sleRne New Mexico, Mi, $979
    I
    rorJame*sd.'- Laabeeal ftdala iaz afa. ArliuhutonTV&.m

    #T ot. ;Jam*s
    a-& a~e oa E="c *ktziloni Modlingl. Arlington

    U68. Amy TRADOC Svstems Analysis Activity. "RUN 726, CAd,.


    FOURCEN White $andiiN~Set1 1984.
    _. 4 1011

    -44

    - .Other Wbrka and Sources Consulted


    Christensen,CPTicourse Director for Intermediate Probability
    and StatisticsVUSMA. Personal interview. 12 April, 1 May
    1985.
    U.S&' Army War College. McClintic Ibealtce Model IUI&. Vol] 11
    IUza.n:& manuaLl. Carlisle,PAu U.S. Army War College,

    U.S. Army War College. MClintia Ibeatca MajdallW1n Val I


    Idar--Same Dinctoa::&Manual. U.S. Army War
    Colleg*,Carlisl*,PAR 1981.

    _K1
    *VdnSsiOP lfime endLs.

    REGRESS .C3 -1C C CX711


    THE REGRESSIOHEUT1t1 .k.

    LOSSES 1i4.-9.1+0. 172 MNUTES


    T.DEV. T-RATI0
    ~cLU1
    ~ ~ ft~J$ PF COEF. COEF/S. D.
    36 5403 2.75

    ______DO_ ,ADJUSTED' OR D..F.

    um~

    'VAI4Jk RED. Y RESIDUAL ST. R ES..


    1~7 7~3 "4.015 50.90 2.6w
    42.0 7.0 2. 23
    2 7249, 14.76' 20.02 0M

    '24" 6319 12.00 -45.47 -. 6F

    S ____ P_

    3 . K15
    AIksIF

    a ?//of1k 410Ja~&rOM the re~spm


    V.~iu C16 "'oe /'9+,7l~~S
    3.0+

    2.0!

    I o+ -

    .M!

    -~~~- j vx
    C
    '1

    x*

    ALf

    tIn ~2 #
    - -------------M N

    10. 2W 50 420.

    K16~
    lon4,v77 me
    PLOT C3 V Cl &)- L, .',I
    1
    LOSSES
    100.6+

    - *
    - *
    - *
    80. +
    - *c *

    -
    - $
    *
    I)- 40e+
    -
    *.
    *
    $$
    40.. *

    - *il

    32*
    0.+ **2
    nue?ru?+ -m+ + - 4' I MUlTE S
    f. Iso. 30. 450.

    K1'7
    REGRESSC3 -2,t'0C4 -M9 -C91
    THE REGRESSION4 EQUATION IS
    L-OSSES -85.5 + 0.185 MINUTES - 0.0372 MIN.DIST
    ST. BEV. T-RATIO
    *COLUMN COEFFICIENT -OF COEF. COEF/S. D.
    - 85.49 10.27 8.33
    MINUTES 0 1608 - 0,03471 5.33
    *MIN.DIST -0.,037154' 0. 005079 -7.32

    R-SJARED 4. ECN
    R-SaJARED - 4 ECENT, ADJUSTD FOR D. F.

    -*r--rANALYSIS..NCOF. VA

    DUE TO DF ~~. SM-S


    -EGRESSION 2.:"L 10155
    4=ES3LAL 37. 9~'

    AN.j,
    -FURTHER~j~t~ 'F. AIAC

    ~ ;. SEXPLAINED bY EA AZZDL WHEN, ENTERED IN THE ORDER GIVEN


    .- DU To., , ~ 5

    MINUTES, S~
    .MIN.DIsT 1 ~Q13913

    Row MINUTES LJOSSES VALUE FPRED. Y RESIDUAL ST. RES.


    o4- -.17'
    5
    335,
    62
    92.50
    48.47
    92.&2
    4.22
    9.4 .
    39.56
    9.88
    2.54R
    0.77 X
    3S , -0.00 35.07 4.29 --35.07 -2.26R
    * . 21. 281 727 73.15 7.89 -2.88 -0.20 X
    24~~~9
    81 .172837.48 -20.65 -1.51 X

    : R -DENOTES AN 0357. WITH A LARGE ST. RESf.


    X DENOTES AN -S WHSE X VALUE GIVES IT LARGE INFLUENCE.

    DuRBIN-+fATSON STATISTIC -1.77

    llm h>4

    K1
    TIPEORESSION EQUATION IS'
    )2HR-RATE 00289
    O 000026 INT-TIME
    Or
    M
    AESJE 3 CASES CONTAIN MISSING VALUES

    - ST. DEV. T-RATIO-


    S COLLMK .COEFFICIENT O COEF. COEF/S.D.
    ~001 IP 1.49
    IN;TM. -76i.,00250? -I, ... ,011 -0.14

    -~000069
    MA .3466

    - ~ ~ ~ 4AtSS ~ ~
    DUW-.EV. Y
    REGESSON RE.DA ST.RE
    *W.-0011,afr .343 561
    It~~ s09036
    ST. Ms
    DUM144Ai66k.Tts~
    Coit4rns

    )~~~~~~~~~j
    - rT V.. RD EIDA TRS

    ~ K19
    *ZO.0227 G01~1 0.3434
    AnneF-)

    PRINT C20 C24


    ROWl TIME TOTALSTR

    1 6.6 827.4
    2 0.5 797.3
    3 .1.0 738.2
    4 1.5 685.8
    5 2.6 666.6.
    6 2.5 659.5
    7 3.6 653.7
    8 3.5 715.1
    9 4.0 709.1
    160 4.5 703.8
    11 5.6 763.8
    12 5.5 704.3
    13 6.6 697.6
    14 6.5 677.7
    15 7.6 674.6
    16 7.5 676.7
    17 8.0 664.6
    18 8.5 644.3
    19 9.6 639.7
    26 9.5 615.8
    21 16.6 669.2
    Continue?

    K(20
    *- -~ -. - - A
    FZ

    17 ",8.6 664.6
    18 8.5 644.3
    19 098 639.7
    28 9.5 61-5.8
    21 18.0 609.2
    Continue?
    22 18.5 684.2
    23 11.0 601.0
    24 11 .5 599.7
    25 12.8 595.8
    26 12.5 591.5
    27 13.0 589.2
    28 13.5 633.5
    29 14.8 550.1
    30 14.5 542.7
    31 15.8 542.6
    32 IS5-5 536.6
    33 16.0 536.2
    34 16.5 . 529.6
    35 17.8 6.001
    36 17.5 595.7
    37 18.0 592.7
    38 18.5 588.5
    39 1:9.8 584.4
    48 19.5 582.6
    41 28.8 588.9
    42 28.5 579.9

    MTB >
    MTB >

    1(2]_
    .i~i7 . .% + -- ,!' , . , "..> ,,j:'+ ,,,- ,+ ti ',,.*,*(.
    Mi/es Vic

    PLOT C24 V C20


    TOTALSTR
    840.+
    - *

    770. +
    - $

    - 2*2
    700.o 2
    - *2
    - - 2 *2 *

    630. +
    2
    -29 2'
    -2 ,2,
    2 ***

    560. +
    - 2*
    - *2

    490.
    nue?
    + m am + aw +TIME
    0.0 9.0 18.0 27.0

    K22
    (des)!

    Des r.r io~o~~~C'

    DESCRIBE C"8
    2HR-RATE
    N -38
    MEAN 0.0262
    MEDIAN .00098
    TMA 010161
    STDEV 006
    SEME~iN 0.0094
    MAX 0'.3496
    MIN 0. 0000
    ~~Q37 MM.~
    ',e 0042

    K(23
    Analysis of Movement In The

    McClintic Theatre Model


    By Thomas A. Dufresne
    Acknowledgements: I acknowledge the assistance of LTC
    Bettencourt in coming up with the topic of this research.
    LTC Bettencourt provided me with access to the model
    and reccomended the methodology to be used in my research.
    Mr. Mark Adams of the concepts analysis agency provided
    me with the information in tables 3,4 and 5.
    He also provided me an explanation of how the movement
    algorithm worked and CAA's analysis of the algoritm. His
    explanation of the algorithm was in agreement with what
    I had alresdy determined the algorithm to be. The data
    in tables 3,4 and 5 is easily verified by looking in
    the file WAR-DATA and in the appropriate subroutines in MTM.
    Cadet John Morris provided assistance in accessing MTM and
    in getting it to run.

    Li
    Dufresne.T.A. 1

    he McClintic Theater Model is an interactive computer simulation of


    heater level warfare, designed for the education of senior level
    fficers in the operations, strategy and problems of conducting war at
    he theater level. From the model, the student can learn the effects
    f various methods of troop employment and the logistical complications
    resent in any large scale conflict.

    n order that the educator and the student feel confident that the
    -ight lessons are being learned, they have to feel confident that the
    iodel is an accurate representation of theater level warfare. One of
    .he primary principles of war as expressed by current Army doctrine, in
    'M-100, is Manuever. A commander must "place the enemy in a position
    f disadvantage through the flexible application of combet power". The
    )ositioning of troops on the battlefield has always been of critical
    :oncern to the commander. Any model that attempts to model warfare
    tust therefore concern itself with the movement of combat and combat
    iupport units. If the model is to accurately simulate war, it must
    Lccurately simulate force movement.

    .he purpose of this paper is to determine how MTM models ground


    iovement and determine how reasonable this model of movement is
    :ompared to the actual movement of ground units. Finally, the
    ipplicability of this movement model, in a simulation designed for
    iducating senior level officers, will be addressed.

    12
    Dufresne.T.A. 2

    ere are two parts to any movement movement routine in a war

    mulation. These two parts are the mechanics of movent and the rate

    movement. If the model is to model movement adequately, it must

    equately model movement rate and movement mechanics.

    ivement Rates in MTM

    Lere are many factors which effect the rate at which ground units

    ve. Some of the most significant of these are listed in Table 1.

    'M models each of these factors, if at all, in a number of different

    kys. If the adequacy of MTM's movement rates is to be determined,

    Len it will be necessary to determine how adequately MTM adresses each

    ! these factors.

    ound Slope

    ie general effect of ground slope on the speed at which a unit rves

    i fairly obvious. If the unit is moving uphill then its speed will be

    isa than what it could be if it were moving on flat ground. MTM does

    )t take ground slope into account. If MTM were going to account for

    Lope it would have to have some idea of the elevations in each hex.

    !M does not store such data.

    uit Size/Efficiency

    L3
    ,.- . _,"-.-'.-
    -:;_
    . -...L "- -'.-.,- ...-..-.
    -'- ,z, ~.....
    -.-- . .._ .? .'-, .- >' '-'?':,"--'.'?.:.,. .. .. .. .-. .'-. -.-- "-. .
    Dufresne.T.A. 13

    urately model theater level warfare. The McClintic Theater Model


    )uld be used at West Point as a training aid in teaching cadets about
    ibat simulation and wargaming. Future work on MTM at West J'iiit
    )uld be along the lines of cadets developing their own algorithms for

    k many subroutines in the model. Additionaly, work should be done on


    reloping a methodology for arriving at and properly documenting all
    merical constants to be used in any algorithm. MTM in the form in
    Lch it currently exists at West Point should not be used by the Army
    7 College to teach senior level officers about theater level warfare.

    L17
    , • t i % %J" % ,% -r.- -l *; ' i' -- * ' :~ -;' &.: -2 :--. --
    Dufresne.T.A. 12

    Weather
    Unit size
    Unit type

    Engineer Assets
    Ground Slope
    Vehicle Reliability

    Further more, the values used to model the effects


    of all other factors are not reliable and appear to
    be arbitrary.

    The model does not allow troops to be transported by

    railroad.

    The movement algorithm looks only one hex away when


    determining the path of a moving unit. This produces
    a route of movement which is often meandering and
    not in agreement with the route a commander would

    have the unit follow. The route taken in no way


    follows what would be the easiest route. It ignores
    all information about enemy location which makes it
    possible for the unit to run into the enemy, even
    when the commander knows the enemy location and wishes
    to bypass it.

    :ommendations:

    I needs extensive revision before even the movement subroutines

    L16
    ........................................
    Dufresne .T.A. 11

    fter all orders have been read, the program control is eventually
    ransfered to MANEUV. It is in MANEUV where the unit is a.tually
    oved. MANUEV cycles through all the units in the data base and checks
    0 see if they are ready to be moved. If they are ready and they have
    uel, their location is changed to that of their next hex. If they are
    *t their destination, their status is set to availible. After the unit
    s moved, checks are made to determine if the unit left or entered a
    ity hex or entered a mined or contaminated hex. If either of these
    -onditions exists then appropriate actions are taken and delays
    Lssesed. The subroutine then determines if the unit has moved adjacent
    .o an enemy unit. If it has moved adjacent to an enemy hex, the unit's
    itatus is set to combat. The next hex a unit will move into is
    etermined in subroutine MOVNXT. In MOVNXT, the distances from the six

    texes adjacent to the moving unit, to the unit's destination are


    letermined. The model then determines the time it would take the unit
    .o move into each of these six hexes. The direction which would result
    Ln the greatest reduction of distance to the destination per unit time
    Ls the direction of the unit's next move.

    )eficiences

    her are a number of places where this model fails to adequately


    7epresent reality. Some of thes are as follows:

    The model ignores or fails to accurately model the


    effects of the folowlowing factors on movement:

    L15
    I |*. ....

    Dufresne.T.A. 10

    Method of Movement in MTM

    MTM uses a relatively simple algorithm to move units. Location in MTM


    is given in terms of hex coridintes. When a commander desires to move
    a unit, he inputs a move order. The essential elements of a move order

    in MTM are the key word 'move', the unit to be moved, and the unit's
    destination hex.

    Other information may be added to the order but it is not required.


    The optional data in a move order are the speed the commander desires
    the unit to travel at and the time he wants them to start moving. If
    the movement speed and start time are not given, the model sets the
    movement speed to the units maximum speed and the start time to the
    time the order was recieved. There are three major suroutines in MTM

    which handle unit movement. These subroutines are MOVORDER, MOVNXT and
    MANEUV. The flow chart for the overall logic of movement in MTM is
    given in appendix l.a. Flowcharts for the major movement subroutines
    are in appendix lb.-ld. In general, the movement logic works as
    follows. The commander inputs a movement order. This order is
    determined by the key word move to be a movement order and control of

    the program transfers to MOVORD. In MOVORD the model determines if the


    order is a valid movement order. If it is valid, the subroutine
    creates a dummy location for the unit being moved and moves it to its
    destination ignoring battle conditions in order to determine an
    estimated arrival time, which it transmitted to the commander. MOVORD
    calls MOVNXT to determine the first hex the moving unit will be moving
    into and calculates the time the unit will arrive in the next hex.

    L14
    -SUL
    Dufresne.T.A. 9

    fourth.

    Desires of The Commander

    If a commander wishes to push his men to their fullest capability, he


    can do it. It will however have an effect on morale and safety. If a
    commander wants to get from point A to point B as fast as possible he
    will have to pay the price. On the other hand, if their is no urgency,
    a commander can move at a steady orderly pace and make it to his
    destination with troops that are mentally and phisically prepared to
    fight. MTM allows a player to set the speed for a unit and it will
    move the unit at that speed so long as it does not exceed the maximum
    speed adjusted for terrain , barriers, day or night effects and
    weather. MTM does not penalize a unit that moves at its maximum speed.

    Maximum Speed

    It is evident from the above analysis that the movement rates in MTM
    are very dependent on the values assigned for maximum speeds and the
    variuos modifying factors. Maximum speeds in the current West Point
    Nato data base range from 6 to 10 MPH. There is no documentation
    available showing how these values or the modifying factors were
    arrived at.

    L13
    i -Ti i ~ i E : >
    Dufresne.T.A. 8

    Note that the terrain code used is that of the hex being entered.

    Weather

    Weather can have a number of substantial effects on a unit. It can


    effect morale, vehicle reliability, trafficability and visibility all
    of which can cause changes in a unit's movement rate. In addition, it
    is not only the current weather wich will effect movement. The weather
    for the past few days or weeks may have made significant changes to the
    trafficabilty of the soil which would not be expected if only the
    current weather were observed. MTM models three types of weather;
    clear, rain, fog/snow. Temperature effects are not modeled. Neither
    are the effects of long periods of rain or snow. MTM models the
    effects of weather by modifying a units maximum speed by a weather
    factor. The weather factors are given in Table 5. To get a units new
    speed after adjusting for weather, MTM divides the units max speed by
    the weather factor.

    Day/Night

    The effects of day or night on a units movement rate are primarily


    caused by changes in visibility. Reduced visibility will have varying
    effects depending on the terrain and proximity to the enemy. MTM
    models the effects of night on a unit's speed by cutting it by a

    L12
    MTM Barrier Codes and Factors
    Code Barrier Type Traffic Factor
    1 Open 1.0
    2 River 3.0
    3 Bridge,Tunnel,Poor road .50
    4 Road .35
    5 Road .50
    6 Undefined -
    7 Wadi 3.0
    8 Ditch 3.0
    9 Impassible 99999.
    Table 3.

    MTM Terrain Codes


    Code Terrain Type
    1 Open
    2 Forrest
    3 Urban
    4 Mountain
    5
    6 Water
    Table 4.

    MTM Weather Factors

    Weather Factor
    Clear 1.00
    Rain 1.25
    Fog/Snow 2.00
    Table 5.

    L11
    Dufresne.T.A. 7

    associated with the terrain type the unit is moving through. The exact
    time calculation will be discussed in the next section on the effects
    of terrain on movement.

    Ground Trafficability

    Different units are able to traverse different terrain types at

    different rates. Mechanized units move very well on well paved roads
    or hard soil, but they are severely hampered by things such as swamps,
    forests, mountains, cities, sand or mud. Leg Infantry, although also
    hampered by these terrain types, is not hampered to anywhere near the
    same extent. MTM does model the fact that different terrain types
    impede movement to different extents, but it does not model the fact
    that different unit types perform differently in the same terrain.

    MTN currently models five terrain types. These terrain types and there
    associated codes are listed in Table 4. MTH uses the terrain code and
    the traffic factor between hexes to determine the time it will take a
    unit to move between the two hexes, given a units speed on open ground.
    The units speed on open ground is determined by the factors which will
    be discussed in the next few sections. The equation for calculating

    the time to move between two hexes is:


    If there is a bridge or road between the two hexes
    Travel Time - Hexsize/((Traffic Factor + .02)*Speed)
    Otherwise

    Travel Time - Hexsize/((Traffic Factor * Terrain Code + .02)*Speed)

    L10
    Obstacles

    Natural

    River
    Swamp
    Ravine
    Dense Vegatation
    Wadi

    Man Made

    Abatis

    Tank Ditch
    Barbed Wire
    Mine Field

    Table 2.

    L9
    V7.-.* b
    Dufresne.T.A. 6

    While moving from one location to another, a unit will encounter many
    obstacles. Some of the obsltacles will be manmade and others will be
    natural. In either case the unit's movement rate will be slowed down
    as the unit either clears the obstacle or goes around it. The ability
    of a unit to clear or breach an obstacle is a function of its engineer
    assets. MTM does not account for the differences in engineer assets
    between various units.

    Natural/Enemy Obstacles

    As has already been stated, MTM does not account for the differing

    ability of variuos types and size units to overcome obstacles. It does


    however model the fact that obstacles do exists and that they do slow
    down-movement. Table 2 lists some of the possible obsticles that a
    unit could come up against. MTM has two different ways of modeling
    obstacles. One method is for mine fields and the other method is for
    all other types of obstacles. MTM models the effects of mine fields by
    adding a random time delay on to a unit entering a mined hex.
    Currently, the time delay for any unit entering a mined hex is a random
    number between two and four hours. MTM models all other obstacle
    effects by assigning each hexside a barrier code. MTM uses this code
    to record the existance of any natural or manmade features which would
    either impede or aid movement between hexes. The features currently
    modeled by MTM and there codes are listed in Table 3. Also listed in
    Table 3 is a traffic factor for each barrier type. The traffic factor
    is used to calculat the time it takes for a unit to move from one hex

    to another. Also involved in this calculation is a terrain factor

    L8
    I~~u*;~ p:;';.-.r.N~
    Dufresne.T.A. 5

    does not checX for ports or airstrips at the units destination. MTM
    does not model rail transportation.

    NBC Conditions

    Under nuclear chemical or biological conditions a unit's movement will


    be slowed down by due to the fact that troops will be foced to don

    protective gear and mechanized units will travel buttoned up. Delay
    will aslo occur While units are being decontaminated. On the other
    hand, troops will have a tendancy to move as fast as they can through
    the contaminated area, even if this exceeds the movement rate set by
    the commander. MTH models NBC conditions by adding a random time delay
    on to a unit moving into a contaminated hex. For a nuclear hex the

    delay is a random number between .5 and 1.5 hours, and for a chemical
    or biologcal hex the delay is a random number between 2 and 4 hours.
    These delays are for hexes which are ten miles across.

    Vehicle Velocity

    There is no need to discuss the role vehicle velocity plays in


    determining movement rates. MTM accounts for vehicle velocities in the
    maximum speeds that it sets for each unit.

    Engineer Assets

    L7
    Dufresne.T.A. 4

    When a unit is on the move , vehicles will break down. When a vehicle
    breaks down, at a minimum, time will be lost as men and equiptment are
    transferred from the down vehicle to operational vehicles. If the
    breakdown occurs in relatively tight terrain, such as in a forrest or
    in the mountains, and it is difficult or impossible for other vehicles
    to go around the obstruction, then delay will be even greater. In the
    worst case, the failure has occured in a vehicle critical for the
    accomplishment of the mission. The unit must then wait for it to be
    repaired or for a replacement to arrive. The rate of vehicle failure
    increases with the amount of time the unit has been on the move. While
    a unit is moving, there is little time for proper PMCS. Even when
    there is sufficient time, the conditions may not be condusive to PMCS
    , being done properly. As a result of insufficient maintainance,
    vehicles will break down with increased frequency. MTM does model
    vehicle failure. It does this by reducing a units strength every time
    *it changes hexes. The unit's strength is reduced by .00005 percent at
    ' every hex. This amount does not increase with the amount of time the

    unit has been moving. MTM does not model the effect of vehicle

    failures on movement rate.

    * Mode Of Transportation

    In warfare, a commander does not always have to move his unit to battle
    under its own power. He may instead put it on ships, trains or planes.
    MTM allows players to sealift and airlift units. It allows them to do

    this substantially more than would be the case in reality because it

    L6
    Dufresne.T.A. 3

    I feel it would be reasonable to assume that as the size of a unit


    increases, its efficiency decreases. 'A squad leader has direct control
    over all of his men. When he makes a decision there is very little
    time lag before his men begin to carry it out. A platoon can only be
    as efficient as its best squad. In reality it will be even less
    efficient because there is delay between the platoon leader telling the
    platoon sargeant what he wants and the platoon sargeant telling the
    squad leaders. In addition platoon activities take more planning than
    those of a squad. More time lag is added when different subunits must
    , coordinate with one another. This is especially the case when some
    tasks must be completed before others can even be begun. This
    inefficiency multiplies as the number of sub-units in an organization
    increases. Even at the same oganizational level, different units have
    different efficiencies. Part of these differences may be accounted for
    in the ability of the commander and his staff and some may be accounted
    for in the different organizations and missions of the various units.
    When given an order to move, there will be a time delay before a unit
    actually begins to move. This time delay is a function of the units
    efficiency. MTM does not take efficiency into account when it
    * determines how quickly a unit responds to a movement order. A unit's
    size will also have a direct effect on movement rate because bottle
    necks on the route of advance will have a greater effect on large units
    than on small units. If MTM accounts for size and efficiency at all
    then it is in an aggregate manner in the values given for a units
    mximum speed. These values will be discussed later.

    * Vehicle Reliability

    L5 4
    Factors Effecting Movement Rate
    Ground Slope
    Unit Size/Efficiency
    Vehicle Reliability
    Mode of Transportation
    NBC Conditions

    Vehicle Velocity
    Engineer Assets
    Natural/Enemy Obstacles

    Ground Trafficability

    Weather
    Day/Night
    Desires of Commander

    Table 1.

    OKI L4
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    A VI A i
    %A
    MN HISTORICAL MODELING:
    PREPARATION OF THE KHARKOV DATABASE

    ER439A roport by
    John So Morisfi III

    rg
    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    CHAPTER PAGE

    I INTRODUCTION., .= ..... o... ....=---=-°o= .-. *=e


    . ---

    11 PROBLEM STATEMENT.....o. - ....- -° o°°°-1

    III SOFTWARE MODIFICATIONS..°o ....... °°. =-...- -= .°-°-I

    IV TESTING AND DEBUGGING THE PROGRAM..........................5

    V RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCN........................6

    FIGURE I TERRAIN AND BARRIER VALUES........................-....-.8

    FIGURE 2 SHORTEST PATH ALGORITHM....................... . .. 9

    ANNEX A SECOND.F77 PROGRAM....................-...--....----"

    ANNEX B FIRSTF77 PROGRAM.....................-....--..--.----"

    ANNEX C WAR-DATA FILE................-. ..-..-.------ "

    N2 *~%~t~
    MORRIS, J.S. 1

    I- INTRODUCTION.

    The McClintic Theater Model (MTM) has been the subject


    of the USMA And Army War College (AWC) Model Validation
    Program (MVP). The purpose of MVP is to assist the AWC in
    providing combat model users with "confidence statements"
    about the outcomes obtained from MTM. This particular
    project is intended to allow a historically based
    investigation of the validity of the MTM model. This is to
    be accomplished by the Department of History, whose
    researchers will attempt to re-enact the Battle of Kharkov.
    I. [ROBLEM STATEMENT.
    My contribution to this portion of the MVP involved-two

    major tasks. The first task was to make the necessary


    software modifications to the game to allow the History
    department researchers to simulate the Kharkov battle. The
    second task was to assist the History department researchers
    in running the game, obtain feedback from them on the games
    accuracy and make any modifications to the game that they
    believe will allow it to more closely simulate World War II

    conditions.
    III. SOFTWARE MODIFICATIONS.

    The first task required two major actions: prepare a


    properly formatted database for the Kharkov battle and then

    modify the game to accept this database if necessary. These


    tasks have been successfully completed.
    Maj. Stille, USAF, and MAJ Hendrix were responsible
    for gathering the data for the Kharkov terrain data base.
    MORRIS, J.S. 2

    This data was based on information obtained from World War


    II era maps of the Kharkov area. The terrain data consisted
    of two elements for each hex. These were the barrier data
    for each hexside and the terrain value for the hex. A
    comparison of their barrier and terrain designations and the
    MTM game's own designations is given along with their
    trafficablity effects in figure 1. This data was then
    placed into a file giving the hex designation, terrain value
    and the barrier data for each hex.
    My task was to reformat this data into the form
    acceptable to the MTM program. However, before this could
    be done, I had to fill in missing hexes in order to form a
    rectangular map. Rather than fill these hexes with
    arbitrary values, I developed a reformatting program called
    SECOND.F77 that would create the missing hexes by copying
    data from the hex immediately to the south. The SECOND
    program produced the data for a 42 (E-W) by 48 (N-S) hex
    grid. The code for the SECOND.F77 program is included in

    ANNEX A.
    MAJ Bonin of the Department of History was responsible
    for providing the unit data. His information was based on
    three publications from the World War II era. These
    references were: FM 105-5 Maneuver Control, TM 30-430
    Handbook on USSR Forces and TM 30-451 Handbook on German
    Forces. The number of each type of weapons system in a
    particular type of unit such as a Rifle brigade was
    determeined from the Handbook. Each weapon's relative
    effectiveness was referenced in FM 105-5 and multiplied by
    MORRIS, J.S. 3

    the number of weapons. The sum of these products was the


    generic units firepower score. The Unit strength was the
    firepower score divided by 1000. A particular unit s
    strength was the generic strength times the percent strength

    of the particular unit.


    The artillery units damage per volley was determined by
    using the product of the number of tubes in the unit and the
    weight of each shell. This product was used in a formula
    developed by COL Dapuy USA (ret.) to determine the number
    of casualties produced. The number of vollies was the
    ammunition tonnage on hand divided by the tonnange fired per
    volley. The supply of direct fire ammunition was simply the
    total of the number of weapons times the ammunition carried
    per weapon in tons.
    The movement rates were based on data provided in the
    TMs. The rates were a comnpromise between these rates and

    the rates given in the MTM Players Guides. Large unit~s


    were given slightly slower movement rates to simulate the
    increased logistical tail and the fact that not every one is
    in the same kind of vehicle or even has a vehicle.

    The data for each unit had to be loaded into the


    computer and properly formatted. The data was manually
    loaded into the computer and was automatically formatted
    using the FIRST.F77 program. This program code is listed in
    ANNEX B. The data for all 155 units in the game was entered

    using the FIRST program.


    The total Kharkov database was created by combining the
    terrain data with the unit data. Hexsize data was copied
    M5
    MORRIS, J.S. 4

    from the NATO data base and globally changed to 5 miles.


    The default values for game parameters such as the
    probability of certain type of weather or the time that
    logistics or intelligence reports are issued were copied
    from the NATO database. The major differences in the
    configuration of the two databases was the use of 184
    instead of 306 rows of terrain and barrier data (a result of
    the smaller size of the Kharkov hexgrid), and the fact that
    only 155 units were included instead of 300.
    These differences along with the fact that the History
    department did not include the first 10 hex rows in its
    grid, required that the game be modified slightly. The
    modifications required were relatively simple. In the INITL
    and UPDATE subroutines, the format, read and write
    statements had to be changed to account for the fact that
    only 155 units were in the data base and the Hex grid was a
    42 by 48 rather than a 41 by 82 matrix. The changes were
    simply the direct substitution of 155, 42 and 48 for every
    reference to 300, 41 and 82 respectively in the read. and
    write statements. The format statements were modified by
    substituting 155 and 184 for 300 and 306 in these
    statements. In all of the subroutines, wherever the was a
    reference to a particular hex, all references to the north
    south raw were changed from NS/2 +1 to (NS-10)/2 to account
    for the fact that rows 1-10 are nonexistent. The NS
    variables were change by locating every NS type variable.

    These variables included NS(I), NSDEST(I), NSFIRE(I),


    NWT(I),NSNXT and NSNEXT(I). The (I) is the subscript for
    MORRIS, J.S. 5

    the array and is the unitos ID number.


    The new data base was tested in the modified game. The
    game accepted the database without any problems. The game
    was then available for play testing.
    The initial modifications to the game also included
    eliminating the defensive posture bias favoring red units
    and making air attack damage a function of the particular
    aircraft type. The posture bias involves the combat
    subroutine which puts the red units in a given posture
    sooner than a blue unit. This is unacceptable given the

    qualitative superiority of the German (blue) units over the


    Soviet (red) units during World War II. This was remedied

    by making the posture determinations the same for both


    sides. The air attack* damage assessment was modified by
    making the game reference the DAMVOL(I) variable to read the

    damage done per sortie by the particular unit making the


    attack. The game originally used a set percentage to assess

    the damage.
    IV. TESTING AND DEBUGGING THE PROGRAM.
    Once the database was prepared and the game was
    modified, the next step was to have the D/Hist researchers

    play the game. This has yet to happen. The reason for this
    is that the time that was to be devoted to playing the game
    was instead spent debugging the program. The problems

    encountered were that the game developed subscript errors


    anytime a move movement order was given. With the
    assistance of Mr. Don Leech of ACD, I was able to trace the
    problem to the TRAFIC function and make a quick fix to
    M7
    MORRIS, J.S. 6

    prevent the IDIGIT variable from being zero. In that event


    IDIGIT would be reset to one. Then the game would not

    execute movement orders. Instead it would give the unit "is


    confused as to best path- give intermediate destination"

    message. This occured even when the order was to move to an

    adjacent hex.
    This problem proved impossible for me to correct within
    the time remaining in the semester. I made a temporary fix
    know as the "Shortest Path Algorithm" to allow units to move

    directly toward its destination if it is within six hexes


    east-west and north-south of its destination. This
    modification is listed as figure 2. With this Algorithm in

    place, the game is now operational.

    V. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH.


    The major road block to future progress of the MVP is

    the lack of an operational source file for the game. The

    seg file is operational but it cannot be modified. Also the


    current source files may not be what the seg file contains.

    This may invalidate the results of code analysis.

    Therefore, a top priority should be to locate every copy of

    the MTM source code on disk or tape. Then every one should
    be tested until the operational source code is located.
    This will make life much easier in the future.
    If the operational source code is not located, then the

    current MTMALL must be debugged. I would suggest that a two


    person team should be used to accomplish this task. One
    person should be expert at Fortran programming and on using

    the Prime computer, while the other one should be familiar


    M9
    MORRIS, J.S. 7

    with how MTM is supposed to function.


    Until an MTM source file becomes operational, the MVP
    will be dead in the water. The source file must completely
    match the seg file or it will be impossible to modify MTM.

    M20
    : '' ' 9 ' '-
    ; . ; - ... .. . . . --
    .? .. .? ....
    MORRIS, J. S. 8

    FIGURE 1

    TERRAIN AND BARRIER DATA

    TERRAIN

    VALUE MTM TYPE KHARKOV TRAFFIC


    1 OPEN OPEN 1.0

    2 URBAN VILLAGE 3.0


    3 CITY BUILT UP 3.0
    4 CITY/URBAN 4.0
    5 MOUNTAINOUS HILLS/DESERT 5.0

    6 FOREST/SWAMP 6.0

    7 ROUGH HILLS 7.0


    9 MOUNTAIN 9.0

    BARRIERS
    VALUE MTM TYPE KHARKOV TRAFFICABILITY

    1 NO BARRIER NO BARRIER 1.00


    2 RIVER RIVER 3.00

    3 BRIDGE BRIDGE 0.5

    4 ROAD ROAD 0.5

    5 SWAMP 0.33
    6 0.75

    7 WADI 3.00
    8 AT DITCH AT DITCH 3.00
    9 IMPASSIBLE IMPASSIBLE 99999.00
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    1 1 1 11
    115 1,115511

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    1 .1 1 ,1 11111,*11111 111 ! 1111 1 111 1111,1111 1111111 1111 111111 . 111111

    I1.111111' . 11!1 '1*11,1 111111.*111111,111111 ,11:11,*1111,1115111111111.,

    ~ ~
    i111!1,1!71~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~1
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    .I

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    4 q
    "'
    .i~~~~
    1 1 , 1 . : . .... 21!. 1i1_ 1 ---Z1
    .1111.,_1111,,.11~~~~~~
    .. 1 1 _ :1 1 ,: 1 . 1 1 1 1_, 1 11 , 1 1 ,_117,

    -111
    ,-1111
    .,.1 '!, -1
    ,_1111.
    1 ;111 _', 1111 ,211 1 ,':11 1Z, 1111 ,. 1 ,

    11 1 1 1 1 !,1 i 1 1 11 1 1 11 1 11 1 1 11111. 1 11 Z..1.1.1 11 1111....11 1 11 12

    111111.11111;,11111.1
    , '1 1 ,! t 1 ,1 1 ,1 11 1 1 1114 1 1 1, 11 1, 1411 1 4.

    11
    1111 1,
    .1 11 ,1 11 1, 11 !1 11 1 1. 11 !1 11 !1 ,1 1 11 111lag1 1

    1~ - I
    .114 1 11 .. 11 1.
    READ(*,307) SPDMAX(I)
    107 FORMAT(F7.2)
    207 FORPIAT(F7.2)
    307 FORMAT(F7.1)
    WRITE(*, 108)
    108 FORMAT ('ENTER RANGE, AI RSPEED AND ATTACKTYE'
    READ(*,109) RANGE(I)
    READ(*,309) AIRSF2D(I)
    READC*,209) ATYPECI)
    109 FORIIAT(F7.1)
    309 FORMAT(F7.1)
    209 FORMAT (A7)

    WRITE(*, 110)
    110 FORMAT('ENTER THRESHOLD, EW LOC. AND NS LOC.')
    READC*9111) THRESH(I)
    READC.,211) EWCI)
    READ(*,311) NS(I)
    III FORMAT(F7.2)
    211 FORMAT(A2)
    311 FORMAT(13)
    EWNEXTCI)-EW(I)
    NSNEXT(I)-NS(I)
    EWDEST (I ) EW( I)
    NSDEST(CI )-iNS (I)
    EWFIRE I )-EW( I)
    NSF IRE (I )iNS(I)

    30 CONTINUE

    c THIS SECTION WRITES THE DATA TO THE FILE.

    200 FORMAT(A4,I3,A10 1 2A5,A16,5F7.1/ 12F6.0/ 2F7.2,I3v4F7.1,A10vA7,13,


    12F7.2 /
    13F7.2,A21 13,A2, I3,A2, 13,A2, 13/)

    DO 300 L=M,N
    WRITE(10,200) UNITCLCL) 1 NUNIT(L)*UNITYP(L)1 SUBTYPCL),SIZE(L)v
    1NAME(L) ,POINTS(L) ,PERCNT(L) ,TOEPER(L) ,PERSON(L) ,CARRY(L).
    1SUPPLY(L,1),SUPPLY(L,2),SUPPLY(L,3),SUPPLY(L,4),SUPPLY(L,5)1
    ISUPPLY(L,6),SUPPLY(L,7)ISUPPLY(L,8)ISUPPLY(L,9),SUPPLY(LIO),
    ISUPPLY(L,11)1 SUPPLYCL,12)sAIRCFT(L),DAMVOL(L),NUMVOL(L)1 SPDMAXCL)1
    1SPEED(L),AIRSPD(L),RANOE(L),POSTUR(L)1 ATYPE(L)1 ESCORT(L),TSEAD(L)1
    1THRESH(L) ,ARTIME(L) 1 TJUMP(L) ,TFIRECL) 1 EW(L) 1 NSCL).EWNEXTCL),
    1NSNEXT(L) 1 EWDESTCL),NSDESTCL),EWFIRE(L),NSFIRE(L)
    WRITE (*,200)
    300 CONTINUE
    WRITE(*,400)
    400 FORMATC'I AM FINISHED.')
    END
    OK,'

    - WL
    C INPUT THE DEFAULT VALUES
    DO 10 Kwl,300
    DO 20 J-1,12
    SUPPLY (K J )-9999
    20 CONTINUE
    PERCNT(CK) -100.00
    TOEPER(CK) -10000.0
    PERSONWK-10000. 0
    CARRYCK- 10000.0
    ESCORT(K)in 0
    TSEADWK- 0.0
    THRESHWK)0.0
    ARTIME(K-n. 0
    TJUMPCK)-9999. 9
    TF IRE CK i9999.9
    POSTUR(K)WINPOSITION'
    10 CONTINUE
    WRITE(*, 90)
    90 FORMAT(C ENTER THE FIRST UNIT NUMBER AND THE LAST NUMBER. ')
    READ(*,91 )M,N
    91 FORMAT(13,I3)

    C INTERACTIVE INPUT SECTION


    WRITE(C*, 92)
    92 FORMAT('ENTER THE DATA ONE ITEM AT A TIME.')

    DO 30 I-M,N
    WRITE(*, 100)'
    100 FORMAT(eENTER UNIT COLOR,UNIT NUMBER, AND IJNIT TYPE")
    READ(*, 101) UNITCL( I)
    READ(*,201) NUNIT(I)
    READ(*,301) UNITYPCI)
    101 FORMAT(A4)
    201 FORMAT(I3)
    301 FORMAT(A1O)
    WRITE(*, 102)
    102 FORMAT('ENTER SUBTYPE, SIZE AND NAME.')
    READC*,103) SUBTYP(I)
    READC*,203) SIZE(I)
    READC*,303) NAMECI)
    103 FORMAT(A5)
    203 FORMAT(A5)
    303 FORMAT(A18)
    WRITE(*, 104)
    104 FORMAT('ENTER THE POINTS, SUPPLY V AND AIRCRAFT.")
    READC*,105) POINTS(I)
    READ(*,205) SUPPLY(1*5)
    READ(*,305) AIRCFTCI)
    105 FORMAT (F7.1)
    205 FORMAT (F6.0)
    305 FORMAT (F7.2)
    WRITE(*, 106)
    106 FORMAT(C'ENTER DAMVOL, NUMYOL AND SPDMAX.')
    READ(*9107) DAMYOL(I)
    READ(*,207) NIJMVOL(I)

    IC7
    SLIST*FIRST.F77
    C DATA INPUT PROGRAM
    C
    C THIS PROGRAM ALLOWS A USER TO CREATE THE UNIT PORTION
    C OF AN MTh DATABASE.

    C DIMENSION VARIABLES
    COMMON /TERAIN/ TER(82v55), BAR(82,55), BARIER(9)
    COMMON /UNIT/NUNIT(300),NAME(300),UNITYP(300),UNITCL(300),EW(300),
    I NS(300),ARTIME(300),PERCNT(300),POINTS(300),SPDMAX(300),
    2 POSTUR(3OO),EWDEST(3OO),NSDEST(3OO),TJUMP(30O),EWNEXT(3OO)I
    3 NSNEXT(300),SPEEDC300),NUMVOL(300),RANGE(300),WARN(300),
    4 TSEAD(30O),ATYPE(3O),ESCORT(3O),THRESH(3O),ARSPD(3O),
    5 SUBTYP(300),SIZE(300),TOEPER(300),PERSON(300),CARRYC300)I
    6 SUPPLY(30tfOt2),AIRCFT(300),DAMVOL(3OO),TFIRE(3OO),EWFIRE(3OO),
    7 NSFIRE(3OO),ORIENT(3OO),ETA(3OO),TBUSY(3OO),PROTECTC3OO)
    COMMON /OTHER/NUMBER, ASTIME, FACTOR, SUNRIS, SUNSET9 BCLOCK1
    + EIMEW,DIMNS,DIMUNT,TITLE,EWJAMR,
    I EWJAMD, EW INTR EW INTB, POLCON, POLSOR, AMOSOR9 AMOVOL, BATTI M, NBATLI
    2 NUCBLU1 NUCRED,ICHEMB,ICHEMR.DAYNITsWX9 WXFACTWXTIMEPFO(4)1
    3 PRAI N(4) ,PDDCLR9 PDDFOG PPDDRANP PDNCLR, PDNFOG, PDNRAN, TRACE,
    4 TIMELTIMLST,TIMLOGBLUNATREDNAT,BNATIN,BNATDDNATPD,BNATPI,
    5 BNATPARNATIN,RNATD,RNATPD9 RNATPI1 RNATPA,HEXSIZ(164)1 NBINIT,
    6 FRTALY(30),NUCHEWCHGNSCHGUNITCHIDLECL(12),MOVECL(12),
    7 MODECL( 12),COMBCL( 12),PEED
    - CHARACTF.R*2 EW, EWDEST9 EWFIREPEWNEXT, EWCHGI ORIENT
    CHARACTER*4 UN ITCL9 DAYN IT
    CHARACTER*5 SUBTYP, SIZE
    CHARACTER*7 ATYPE
    CHARACTER.8 DAYvWX
    CHARACTER*1O UNITYP, POSTUR
    CHARACTER*1e NAME
    CHARACTER*24 FORMT 1 FORMB
    CHARACTER*80 TITLE
    CHARACTER*108 FORMU
    DIMENSION DUMMY(4),RUMMY(4)
    INTEGER ESCORTDIMEW,DIMNS1 DIMUNT
    CHARACTER*3 STAX
    CHARACTER*5 FILE
    LOGICAL WARN,EX2

    C OPEN THE FILE


    INQUIRE(FILE-IUDATAI, EXIST-EX2)
    IF (EX2) THEN
    STAX-0OLD'
    ELSE
    STAX-- NEW"
    END IF

    )AM6
    -~l *-:;1
    C WRITE SECTION
    C Writes the data in the matpix format.
    WRITE(6,200)((TER(2*K+9+C1+C-1)**J)/2,J),KmI,48),J1,42),
    1(RUMMY(M),M=1,8),(CDARC2*K49+(l+C-i)**J)/2,J),K-1,48),J-1,42).
    2(CDUMMY(CM) Mm 1 ,8) ,N
    200 FORMAT(184(11F6.2/)v184(1iF7.0/),13/)
    END
    OK,'

    Mvt5
    SLSST SECOND.F77
    ,- C2345678
    C DIMENSION SECTION
    INTEGER NS(108),TER(108,42),BAR(10e,42),RUMMY(8),DUMMY(8)
    INTEGER TNS, TTERY TDAR, FLAG, RAG
    CHARACTER EW(42)*2, TEW*2, COMMA*l
    C FILE SECTION
    OPEN (5,FILE-K.DATA,STATUS-OLDI)
    OPEN (6,FILE-TDATA.KHARSTATUS-NEWI)
    C TERRAIN READ AND EXPANSION SECTION
    C This section reads the data from Terrain khar and fills in
    C representative terrain for missing hexes. 42CEW)x4S(NS).

    NS( 10)-10
    NS(1 1 )-1 1
    DO 1 J=1,9
    DUMMY (J)=0
    RUMMY(J)=0
    I CONTINUE
    FLAG=O
    RAC4=0
    DO 20 J-1l,42
    L=1+(l+( (-1)**J) )/2
    RAG-RAG+1
    DO 10 K-1l,48
    1=2*K+S+L
    2 IF (RAG.EQ.2) GOTO 40
    IF (FLAG.EQ.O) GOTO 5
    NS(CI )-iNS(C -2) .2
    TER CI ,J)-TER(C -2, J)
    BAR(I,J)=DAR(I-2,J)
    GOTO 10
    5 READ(5, 100) EWCJ),NS(I),COMMA,TERCI,J),COMMA,BARCI,J)
    RAG-0
    IF (NSCI).EQ.I) GOTO 10

    TNS=NSC I)
    TLAW-E I)

    TTER-TERC I,J)

    40 RAG-0
    EWCJ )-TEW
    NS(CI )-TNS
    TER I, J)=TTER
    BAR(I,J)-TBAR
    WRITEC1,100)EW(J),NS(I),COMMA,TERCI,J),COMMABAR(I,J)
    10 CONTINUE
    FLAG-O
    20 CONTINUE
    100 FORMAT(A2,I3,A1,I1,A1,I6)

    M~14
    END I F
    IF (ISHORT..EQ.3) THEN
    POSTUR(I)-WMOVING SE
    END IF
    IF (ISHORT.EQ.4) THEN
    POSTUR(I)-MOYING S
    END' IF
    IF (ISHORT.EQ.5) THEN
    POSTUR(I)=lMOVING SWI
    END IF
    IF (ISHORT.EQ.6) THEN
    POSTLR(I)-MOVING NW
    END IF
    TJUMP( I)=(HOWFAR(EW(lI),NS(I) ,EWNEXTCI )NSNEXT(I) )/SPEED(I) )+TIME
    * ~DIST-HOWFAR(EW( I) ,NS( I), EWNEXT(I) ,NSNEXTC I))
    WRITE(OUTPUT, 224)NUNIT( I)
    PRINT*, 'SHORTEST PATH ALGORITHM ACTIVATED,'-
    PRINT*,IDEST%,EWNEXT(I),NSDEST(I)
    PRINT*, TIMEI,TJUMP(I)
    PRINT*, 'DISTANCE-',DIST
    PRINT*,'SPEED= ,SPEED( I)
    WRITE (OUTPUT, 225)
    * 224 FORMAT(' #',3,'IS CONFUSED ON BEST PATH-')
    225 FORMAT(VUNIT IS MOVING BY DIRECT ROUTE')
    GOTO 47

    W1

    mamu
    C ADDITION TO MAKE UNITS MOVE BY SHORTEST PATH IF REQUIRED.
    C
    C ******SHORTEST PATH ALGORITHYM **********

    36 ISUMA-IABS(NSDEST(I)-NS(I))
    IPARA- NEW(EWDEST( I))
    IPARB- NEW(EW(X))
    ISUMB-IABS( IPARA-IPARB)
    IF (ISUMA GOT. 6 .OR. ISUMB .GT. 6) GOTO 136
    PRINT*, 'SPA'
    IF(TYPE .EQ. 'AIR' )GOTO 35
    C234567 THIS CHANGES EW NUM~bBERS TO CHARACTERS.
    DATA EWNM /'AAAB',AC',AD',AE',AF',AG',AH',Alv
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    a 'B ''BB,*'BC'v'BD', Ev'FBOB',B'
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    C FIND DIRECTION OF TRAVEL.
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    IEWs--1
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    IEW-0
    END IF

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    TEW-1
    END IF
    IF (NS(I).EQ.NSDEST(I)) THEN
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    END IF

    3 END IF
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    ISHORT-4-IEW
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    4 ISHORT-4
    END IF
    END IF
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    ISHORT-1
    END IF
    END IF
    IF (ISHORT.EQ.1) THEN
    POSTUR(I)-MOVINO N
    END IF
    IF (ISHORT.EQ.2) THEN
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