Lecture5 PDF
Lecture5 PDF
Lecture5 PDF
Copyright 2008, The Johns Hopkins University and Marie Diener-West. All rights reserved. Use of these materials
permitted only in accordance with license rights granted. Materials provided “AS IS”; no representations or
warranties provided. User assumes all responsibility for use, and all liability related thereto, and must independently
review all materials for accuracy and efficacy. May contain materials owned by others. User is responsible for
obtaining permissions for use from third parties as needed.
Summary Measures (Ratio, Proportion, Rate)
3
Indices Used to Summarize Information
A ratio can be written as one number divided by another (a
fraction) of the form a/b
− Both a and b refer to the frequency of some event or
occurrence
A proportion is a ratio in which the numerator is a subset (or
part) of the denominator and can be written as a/(a+b)
− A relative frequency
A rate is a ratio of the form a*/ (a+b)
− a* = the frequency of events during a certain time period
− a+b = the number at risk of the event during that time
period
A rate may or may not be a proportion
4
Properties of Ratios
R = a/b
Often a ratio R is rescaled by multiplying by a constant k
− Where k is a number such as 10, 100, 1,000, or 10,000
R is always > 0
R may or may not have units
5
Examples of Ratios: Example 1
R = observed number of AIDS cases in County A during June
expected number of AIDS cases in County A during June
6
Examples of Ratios: Example 2
R = number of hospitals / (population size)
R may be multiplied by k = 10,000
Units = hospitals per 10,000 people
Suppose
− R = 4 hospitals/20,000 people
= 0.0002 hospitals per person
− R*k = 0.0002 * 10,000
= 2 hospitals per 10,000 people
− Units = hospitals per 10,000 people
7
Examples of Ratios: Odds
p = proportion of people with disease
1–p = proportion of people without disease
O = p / (1–p) = “odds” of disease
No units
8
Examples of Ratios: Odds Ratio
OR = odds ratio
O1
OR =
O2
No units
9
Examples of Ratios: Standardized Mortality Ratio
SMR = standardized mortality ratio
SMR = the ratio of the number of events observed in the
study population to the number that would be expected if
the study population were exposed to the same specific rates
as the standard population
SMR = O/E
No units
10
Properties of Proportions
n = the number of individuals in a population
x = the number of individuals in the same population possess
characteristic C
p = proportion in the population with characteristic C is equal
to x/n
11
Properties of Proportions
p takes on values between 0 and 1 (p is a fraction)
p has no units
p may be multiplied by a constant k
− Where k is a number such as 100, 1,000, or 100,000
12
Example of Proportion
Proportionate mortality
In 1995, 53% of all deaths in Africa were children under age 5
p = 0.53 = 53% = 53 per 100 = 530 per 1,000
13
Ratios, Proportions, and Rates
A proportion is always a ratio
A rate is always a ratio
A rate may or may not be a proportion
14
Properties of Rates
The calendar time period is the same in both the numerator
and denominator of a rate
A rate expresses the relative frequency of an event per unit
time (“risk”)
15
Examples of Rates in Vital Statistics
Infant mortality rate (IMR) = number of infant deaths per
1,000 live births during a calendar year
− The IMR is a ratio
− The IMR is not a proportion because the numerator is not
necessarily part of the denominator (some infants may
have been born during the previous calendar year)
Fertility rate = number of live births per 1,000 women aged
15–44 during a calendar year
− The fertility rate is both a ratio and a proportion
16
Examples of Rates in Vital Statistics
Annual crude death rate =
total # deaths in a calendar year
totalmidyear population
17
Examples of Rates in Vital Statistics
Percent of all deaths which are ages 1–4 =
total # deaths aged1− 4 in calendar year
x 100
total # deaths in calendar year
18
Examples of Rates: Incidence and Prevalence
Incidence rate =
# new cases of specific disease in calendar year
totalmidyear population
19
Person-Time and Rates
Individuals may be exposed to the risk of an event for varying
amounts of time during a total time period of a certain length
due to:
− Entering the time period later
− Leaving the time period earlier
− Experiencing the event of interest
Person-time
− Is a calculation combining persons and time
− Is the sum of the individual units of time that people have
been exposed to the risk of an event
− Is used in the denominator of person-time rates
− Is often used in epidemiology and vital statistics
20
Definitions Useful in Person-Time Analysis
T = length of the time period of interest
N(T) = number of people exposed to risk of the event during T
E(T) = sum of the time units that each person is exposed to
risk of the event (total person-time)
D(T) = number of people with the event during T
D(T)
R=
E(T)
number of events
R=
totalperson− time of exposure
21
Example 1: Person-Years
Suppose during a two-year period of time, 10 episodes of
diarrhea at a day-care center were reported
Thirty-five children attend the day-care center, for varying
fractions of the two-year period, for a total of 50 child-years
10 diarrhea episodes
R=
50 child− years of observation
= 0.20 episodes per child-year
22
Approximation of Person-Time in Vital Statistics
In vital statistics, the exact exposure times rarely are known
E(T), the denominator, may be approximated by multiplying
the mid-period population, N, by the length of the time-
period, T
D(T)
Then, R =
N∗ T
23
Example 2: Person-Years
Suppose during a two-year period of time, 10 episodes of
diarrhea at a day-care center were reported
Suppose 30 children were enrolled in the day-care center at
the mid-period of one year
(10 diarrhea episodes)
R=
(30 children attending the daycare center for 2 years
= 10/60
= 0.17 episodes per child-year
24
Assessing Change in Two Rates
Absolute (arithmetic) change = rate2–rate1
25
Absolute Change in Two Rates
Example
− 1989: rate1 = 1,153
− 1996: rate2 = 307
Absolute change⇒
− 307–1,153 = –846 or an absolute decrease in incidence
rate of 846 cases per 100,000 person-years
− (would = 0 if no change)
26
Relative Change in Two Rates (“Relative Rate”)
Example
− 1989: rate1 = 1153
− 1996: rate2 = 307
Relative change⇒
− 307 / 1153 = 0.27 or 1–0.27=0.73 or 73% relative decrease
in rate
− (would = 1 if no change)
27
Proportional Change in Two Rates
Example
− 1989: rate1 = 1,153
− 1996: rate2 = 307
Proportional change⇒
− (307–1,153)/1,153 = –.73 or 73% relative decrease in rate
− (would = 0 if no change)
28
Summary
Decision making in public health requires evidence (data)
Summarizing data as ratios, proportions, and rates
Commonly used rates
Concept of person-time
Assessing change in rates
29