Course on

Wastewater Pumping
Stations Design
By :Nasser Khattab MSc, MEng.
Senior Mechanical Consult.
[email protected]

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 Lecture 2

Population Study

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2-1 Population Estimation (forecast / projection)

1- Population project periods may range from 5 to 50 years depending

on the particular component of the system that is being designed (e.g.
distribution system, treatment plant, pumping stations, etc.)

2- Estimation of population depends on many factors such as:

a- Past census records.

b- Economic conditions.

c- Future growth of the economical and industrial activities in the

region

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2-1 Population Estimation (Cont.)

3- The rate of population growth can be expressed as a percent increase

per year (e.g. 1.7% per year) (e.g. 17 people per year per 1000

population).

4- Factors affect rate of increase of population :

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2-1 Population Estimation (Cont.)

• A typical S-Shaped population growth curve has five segments: a Log

Phase, Acceleration Phase, Exponential Phase (increase phases),

a Negative Acceleration Phase and a Stationary Phase (decreasing

rate of increase).

• A Six Phase is newly established

named decline/death Phase which

has no growth at all, it has only a

decrease of population. (as per

many Europe Countries nowadays).)

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2-1 Population Estimation (Cont.)

A typical S-Shaped population growth curve as per Egyptian Code has

Three segments: start and growth Phase, Stability Phase and a
saturation Phase .

• a-b Phase is characterized by

increasing population growth

in the form of geometric increase.

• b-c Phase stage in which the factors of population attraction are

stabilized, which necessitates the expansion of the population at a
constant rate and the calculation of the growth rate according to the
Arithmetic method.

• c-d Phase of reaching a decreasing in population growth.

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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

A- Arithmetic Increase Method.

B- Incremental Increase Method (Modified Arithmetic Method).

C- Geometric Method (uniform percentage method).

D- Logistic Method (Decreasing Rate of Increase).

E- Graphical Extension Method.

F- Graphical Comparison Method.

G- Estimating the population assuming land use Densities.

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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

A- Arithmetic Method
- Short term population prediction, 1-10 years

- The rate of population growth (dp/dt) is constant:

- dp/dt = Ka = arithmetic constant = 1/n {Σ(ΔP/Δt)}

- P t = Po + Ka t

Where:

Pt : the population at some time in the future

Po : the present population

t : the period of projection

Ka : the growth rate = ΔP/Δt

n : no. of Interval
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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population (Cont.):

A- Arithmetic Method Example

Based on the previous population record, estimate the population in the
year 2020.
Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population 70000 82000 95000 105000 115000

Solution
Ka = 1/n {Σ(ΔP/Δt)} = 1/4{(82,000 -70,000)/10 + (95,000-82,000)/10 +

(105,000 -95,000)/10 + (115,000 – 105,000)/10} = 1125

Apply Arithmetic Equation Pt = Po + Ka t

P2020 = P2000 + Kat = 115,000 + (1125 × 10) = 126,250 people

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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population: (not in EGY. Code)

B- Incremental Increase Method (Modified Arithmetic Method).

- This method is modification of arithmetical method and it is suitable
for an average size town under normal condition where the growth
rate is found to be in increasing order. While adopting this method
the increase in increment is considered for calculating future
population. The incremental increase is determined for each decade
from the past population and the average value is added to the
present population along with the average rate of increase.

- Population after nth decade (interval) is

Pn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y
Where, Pn = Population after nth decade
X = Average increase
Y = Incremental increase

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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population (Cont.):

B- Incremental Increase Method Example.

Predict the population for the years 2021, 2031, and 2041 from the
following population data using incremental increase method.
Year 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Population 858545 1015672 1201553 1691538 2077820 2585862
- Solution Year Population Increase Incremental
(X) increase (Y)
Population required is,
P2021 = 2585862 + (345463 x 1) 1961 858545 -- --
+ {(1 (1+1))/2} x 87729 1971 1015672 157127 --
= 3019054 1981 1201553 185881 +28754
P2031 = 2585862 + (345463 x 2) 1991 1691538 489985 +304104
+ {(2 (2+1)/2)} x 87729 2001 2077820 386282 -103703
= 3539975
2011 2585862 508042 +121760
P2041 = 2585862 + (345463 x 3)
Total 1727317 350915
+ {(3 (3+1)/2)} x 87729
Average 345463 87729
= 4148625
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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

C- Geometric Method (uniform percentage method)

- In this method the percentage increase in population from decade to

decade is assumed to remain constant. Geometric mean increase is
used to find out the future increment in population.
- Short term population prediction, 1-10 years
- The rate of population growth (dp/dt) is proportional to population

(exponential growth)

dp/dt ∞ P

dp/dt = Kg P

Integrating both sides yields:

ln Pt = ln Po + Kg Δt Kg = (ln (P2 / P1 ))/Δt

Pt = Po e Kg Δt 12
2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population (Cont.):

C- Geometric Method Example

Based on the population record, estimate the population in the year 2020.
Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population 70000 82000 95000 105000 115000

Solution
Kg (1970:1980) = (ln (82/70)) / 10 = 0.0158
Kg (1980:1990) = (ln (95/82)) / 10 = 0.0147
Kg (1990:2000) = (ln (105/95)) / 10 = 0.0100
Kg (2000:2010) = (ln (115/105)) /10 = 0.0091
Average Kg = 0.0124
Apply Geometric Method Equation Pt = Po e Kg Δt

P2020 = 115,000 e (0.0124 x10) = 130,182 people

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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

D- Logistic Method (Decreasing Rate of Increase)

- Long term population prediction, 10-50 years

- It is assumed that the population growth curve has an S shape and the
city has a saturation that will not be exceeded (limiting population)
- From the available population record, we choose three values, two
near the two ends of the record (Po and P2) and one in the middle of
the record (P1)
P = Psat / [1 + e ɤ+ b Δt ]
Psat = [2 Po P1 P2 – P12 (Po + P2)] / (Po P2– P12)
ɤ = ln [(Psat - P2) / P2]
b = [1/n] ln [Po (Psat – P1)/ P1 (Psat – Po)]
Where
n = the time interval between succeeding censuses (e.g. 10, 20 years)
Δt = t - to Short term population prediction, 1-10 years

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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population (Cont.):

D- Logistic Method Example

Estimate the population in 2020, If the population record of a city is:
Year 1970 1990 2010
Population 30,000 90,000 250,000

Solution
Δt = t - to = 2020 -1970 = 50 years
n = 20 years = interval bet. two record.
Po = 30000 & P1 = 90000 & P2 = 250000
Psat = [2 Po P1 P2 – P12 (Po + P2)] / (Po P2– P12) = 1530000
ɤ = ln [(Psat - P2) / P2] = 1.633
b = [1/n] ln [Po (Psat – P1)/ P1 (Psat – Po)] = - 0.057

Apply Logistic Method Equation

P2020= Psat / [1 + e ɤ+ b Δt ]
P2020 = 1180449 ≈ 1181000 people
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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

E- Graphical Extension Method.

In this method, the populations of last few decades are correctly plotted to a
suitable scale on graph (Figure D.1). The population curve is smoothly
extended for getting future population. This extension should be done
carefully and it requires proper experience and judgment.

The best way of applying this method

is to extend the curve by comparing with

population curve of some other similar

cities having the similar growth condition.

Figure D.1 Graphical method of population forecasting

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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

F- Graphical Comparison Method.

In this method the census populations of cities already developed under

similar conditions are plotted. The curve of past population of the city under
consideration is plotted on the same graph. The curve is extended carefully
by comparing with the population curve of some similar cities having the
similar condition of growth.

The advantage of this method is that the future population can be predicted
from the present population even in the absence of some of the past
census report.

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2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

F- Graphical Comparison Method Example.

The populations of a new city X given for decades 1970, 1980, 1990 and
2000 were 32,000; 38,000; 43,000 and 50,000, respectively. The cities A, B,
C and D were developed in similar conditions as that of city X. It is required
to estimate the population of the city X in the years 2010 and 2020. The
population of cities A, B, C and D of different decades were given below:

(i) City A: 50,000; 62,000; 72,000 and 87,000 in 1960, 1972, 1980 and
1990, respectively.

(ii) (ii) City B: 50,000; 58,000; 69,000 and 76,000 in 1962, 1970, 1981 and
1988, respectively.

(iii) (iii) City C: 50,000; 56,500; 64,000 and 70,000 in 1964, 1970, 1980 and
1988, respectively. 18
2-2 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

F- Graphical Comparison Method Example.(Cont.)

Solution: Population curves for the cities A, B, C, D and X are plotted
(Figure E.1). Then an average mean curve is also plotted by dotted line as
shown in the figure. The population curve X is extended beyond 50,000
matching with the dotted mean curve.

From the curve, the populations

obtained for city X are 58,000 and

68,000 in year 2010 and 2020.

Figure E.1

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2-3 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

G- Estimating the Population assuming Land Use densities.

- Population density describes the physical distribution of population
(people/ hectare or Km).
- Population densities may be estimated from data collected on already
developed areas or from zoning master plans for undeveloped areas.
- The following table presents the range of population densities found in
areas of different Land Use . ( as per Egyptian Code 101 page 9)
Population density
Land Use classification
(capita/hectare)
First class villas 20 : 50
Second class villas 50 : 100
Small residential buildings 100 : 250
Middle residential buildings 250 : 700
Large residential buildings 700 : 1200 (or more)
Commercial areas 50 : 75
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Industrial areas 20 : 30
2-3 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

G- Estimating the Population assuming Land Use densities Example.

Estimate the expected average water consumption rate (Lpcd) for the area
shown below. Data on the expected saturation population densities and
water demands are also given. (1 hectare = 10000 m2 = 2,47 acre)
Land use Area (ha) Population consumption rate
density
Industrial Area 30 30,000 L/he.d
Mosque 2 2000 c 50 Lpcd
High rise Buildings 50 350 c/ha 450 Lpcd
Hospital 10 (200 beds) (200 beds) 700 Lpd/bed
400 employees 300 Lpd/employee
School 5 1500 students 200 Lpcd

Commercial Area 120 75 people/ha 30,000 L/he.d

Park and Playground 15 15,000 L/he.d

University 60 10,000 students 200 Lpcd

Single-family Villa 200 50 person/ha 450 Lpcd 21

2-3 Methods for Estimation the future Population:

G- Estimating the Population assuming Land Use densities Example.

Solution: from attached table: Average water consumption
Area Cons. Cons. Total cons.
= 19026 / 34850 Land use
(ha)
Population
(Lphe.d) (Lpcd) (m3/d)

Industrial Area 30 - 30000 - 900

= 0.546 m3/c.d
Mosque 2 2000 - 50 100
= 546 Lpcd.
High rise Buildings 50 350x50=1750 - 450 7875

200 beds 700 140

Hospital 10 -
400 employee 300 120

School 5 1500 - 200 300

Commercial Area 120 75x120=9,000 30000 - 3600

Park and
15 - 15000 - 225
Playground

University 60 10000 - 200 2000

Single-family Villa 200 50x200=10,000 400 4000

Total 34850 19026

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Population Study Questions:

Questions 1.
The population data for a town is given below. Find out the population in the
year 2021, 2031 and 2041 by (a) arithmetical (b) geometric (c) Logistic
Method.
Year 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Population 84000 115000 160000 205000 250000

Questions 2.
In three consecutive decades the population of a town is 40000; 100000
and 130000. Determine: (a) Saturation population; (b) Expected population
in next decade using logistic method.

Questions 1&2 Solutions to be submit and discuss below the same

post.

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To get your own Three
Pumping station Design
Excel Sheet

You are invited

to fill your own Solution on
Excel Sheet after each
Lecture
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 No. Items PS 1 PS 2 PS 3
1 Population at year 1997 10000 30000 120000 Capita

2 Population at year 2007 15000 40000 160000 Capita

Population 3 Population at year 2017 18000 48000 210000 Capita

Study
4 Method of Calculation Arithmatic Geometric Logistic

4 Population at year 2027 ? ? ?

5 Population at year 2037 ? ? ?

Please fill required places.

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 Next
Lecture - 03
Water and Wastewater
Consumption.

Thank You
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