Edexcel Statistics 1 Probability

Section 2: Conditional Probability

Notes and Examples
These notes contain sub-sections on:
 Getting information from a table
 Using tree diagrams

Getting information from a table

The example which follows shows three different ways of dealing with
conditional probability. Solution 1 shows a straightforward application of the
formula for conditional probability. Solution 2 shows how a table can be used
to calculate conditional probabilities quickly. Solution 3 shows how a Venn
diagram can be used in a similar way.

Example 1
In a small sixth form of 50 students, Maths and English are the two most popular
subjects.
30 students are studying Maths.
25 students are studying English.
10 students are studying Maths and English.
Find the probability that a student studies Maths given that he/she studies English.

Solution 1
Let M be the event that the student studies Maths.
Let E be the event that the student studies English.

We want to find P(M E).

Using the formula for conditional probability:
P( M  E )
P( M | E ) 
P( E )
10 1
There are 10 students studying both Maths and English, so P( M  E )   .
50 5
25 1
There are 25 students studying English, so P( E )  
50 2
1 1 2
Therefore P( M | E )  5
 2 
1
2 5 5

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Solution 2
The given information can be presented in a table like the one below.

English Not English Total

Maths 10 20 30
Not Maths 15 5 20
Total 25 25 50

To find the probability that a student takes Maths given that he/she takes English, you
are considering only the 25 students in the column headed “English”.
Out of these 25 students 10 take Maths.
10 2
So the probability of a student studying Maths given they study English is =
25 5

Solution 3
The given information can be shown in a Venn diagram. 25 study English,
and 10 of these
study Maths as
M E well, so 15 study
30 study Maths, English only.
and 10 of these
study English as
well, so 20 study 20 10 15
Maths only.

A total of 45 study
Maths, English or
5 both, leaving 5 who
study neither.

The diagram shows that 25 students study English, and of those 25, 10 study Maths.
10 2
So the probability of a student studying Maths given they study English is = .
25 5

From a table or Venn diagram like the ones in Solution 2 and Solution 3, you
can work out many conditional probabilities.

You can find the probability of a student studying English given that they study
Maths by looking at the “Maths” row in the table, or considering the Venn
diagram.
10 1
P(E M) = 
30 3

You can find the probability of a student studying English given they do not
study Maths by looking at the “Not Maths” row in the table, or by considering
the Venn diagram (20 do not study Maths, and 15 of these study English).
15 3
P(E M') = 
20 4

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For further practice in using Venn diagrams to solve problems involving

conditional probability, try the Venn diagrams worksheet.

You may also find it useful to experiment with the Venn diagrams
spreadsheet.

Example 2
25 interviews were undertaken by a sports centre to research how people kept fit.
Of the 11 men interviewed, 7 preferred team sports to working out in a gym.
8 women preferred working out in a gym to team sports.
Given that a person who prefers working out in a gym is chosen at random, what is
the probability that this is a woman?

Solution
Let W be the event that the person selected is a woman.
Let G be the event that the person prefers working out in a gym.

This is an ideal problem for a 2-way table.

Start by writing in the information given in the question.

Team Sports Gym Total

Male 7 11
Female 8
Total 25

Using subtraction/addition, find the missing values.

Team Sports Gym Total

Male 7 4 11
Female 6 8 14
Total 13 12 25

Looking at the “Gym” column in the table:

8 2
P(W G)  
12 3

You can see that the question becomes quite trivial when you have organised
the data.

The table does not have to be restricted to just two categories, although often
we will have 2 categories. Look for situations involving pass/fail, not just for
exams, but for example, electrical components.

Using a table is not the only way to deal with problems like these. Conditional
probability can often follow on from a tree diagram question.

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Probability Tree Diagrams

As this section involves working out the probability of two or more events, you
need ways of displaying all possible events.
A good way to do this, as shown in the textbook, is to use a tree diagram.

A tree diagram allows you to highlight all the possible outcomes and
systematically work out the corresponding probabilities.

Example 2
A form tutor is investigating the probability
that a particular student, Myles, is late or on
time on Monday and Tuesday one week.
From previous records he finds that
1
P(Myles is late) =
10
Assuming that Myles’ patterns of lateness are independent, find the probability that
(i) Myles is late on both Monday and Tuesday
(ii) Myles is on time on both Monday and Tuesday
(iii) Myles is on time only once in these two days.
(iv) Myles will not be late on either of Monday or Tuesday, given that he will be
on time for at least one of the days.

Solution
1 9
P(Myles is late) =  P(Myles is on time) =
10 10
There are four possible outcomes over two days:

Monday Tuesday
Late Late
Late On time
On time Late Keep Late and On Time in the
On time On time same order along each branch.

These are represented clearly by this tree diagram:

Monday Tuesday

Late

Late

On Time

Late

On Time

On Time
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1 9
Insert 10
and 10
along the
relevant branches

Monday Tuesday
1
10 Late

1 Late
10 Monday Tuesday
9 On Time
10
1
10 Late
9
10 On Time
9
On Time
10
You can calculate the probability of the combined events,
working across the tree diagram.

1 1 1 1 9 9
P(Late, Late) =   P(Late, On Time) =  
10 10 100 10 10 100
1 9 9 9 9 81
P(On Time, Late) =   P(On Time, On Time) =  
10 10 100 10 10 100

1
(i) The probability Myles will be late on both days is .
100
81
(ii) The probability Myles will be on time on both days is .
100

The events (Late, On Time) and (On Time,

Late) both result in Myles being late
exactly once.
So to work out P(Myles being late exactly
once), add the two probabilities.

9 9 18 9
(iii) The probability that Myles will be on time only once =    .
100 100 100 50

(iv) Let A be the event that Myles was on time for at least one of the days.
Let B be the event that Myles was not late on either day.

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P( B  A)
We require P(B A) =
P( A)
P(A) = P(on time for at least one of the days)

= 1 – P(late on both days)

1 99
=1 =
100 100

P( B  A ) = P(Myles was not late on either day and Myles was on time for at
least one of the days)
= P(Myles was on time on both days) Has to satisfy both conditions. In
81 the first Myles is on time on both
= days, in the second Myles is on
100 time for at least one day. So Myles
P( B  A) 81 99 81
P(B A) = =  = must be on time on both days.
P( A) 100 100 99

Note that the three possible outcomes: Late twice

On Time twice
Late Once
have probabilities that add up to 1.
1 81 9 100
   1
100 100 50 100

This is because these three outcomes are exhaustive. They cover all
possible outcomes so it is certain that one of them must occur. The
probability of certainty is 1.

In Example 2, the probability of Myles being late on the second day was the
same as the probability that he was late on the first day. Sometimes the
probabilities for the second trial are different, especially in selection problems
such as raffle ticket problems. Example 3 shows how this works.

Example 3
An ‘A’ level teaching group has 7 boys and 3 girls.
2 students are selected at random from this group.
Find the probability that the students selected are
(i) two boys
(ii) two girls
(iii) one boy and one girl.

Solution
7
When selecting the first student, the probability of selecting a boy is 10 and the
probability of selecting a girl is 103 .

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7 3
Insert 10
and 10
along the first
branches.

Boy

7 Boy
10
Girl

Boy
3
10 Girl

Girl
If a boy is selected first, there are 9 students left: 6 boys and 3 girls.
So the probability that the second student selected is a boy is 96 , and the probability
that the second student selected is a girl is 93 .

If a girl is selected first, there are 9 students left: 7 boys and 2 girls.
So the probability that the second student selected is a boy is 79 , and the probability
that the second student selected is a girl is 92 .

Insert these probabilities on

the tree diagram 6
9 Boy

7 Boy
10
3 Girl
9
7
Boy
3 9
10 Girl

2
Girl
9
You can now use multiplication to calculate the probabilities of the combined events.
7 6 42 7
P(Boy, Boy) =   
10 9 90 15
7 3 21 7
P(Boy, Girl) =   
10 9 90 30
3 7 21 7
P(Girl, Boy) =   
10 9 90 30

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3 2 6 1 The events (Boy, Girl) and

P(Girl, Girl) =    (Girl, Boy) both result in
10 9 90 15
selecting one boy and one
girl. So to work out P(1 boy
7 and 1 girl selected), add the
(i) The probability 2 boys will be selected is
15 two probabilities.
1
(ii) The probability 2 girls will be selected is
15
7 7 14
(iii) The probability that one boy and one girl will be selected is  
30 30 30
7

15

Note that the three possible outcomes: two boys

two girls
one boy and one girl
have probabilities that add up to 1.
7 1 7
  1
15 15 15
This is because these events are exhaustive, as discussed in the previous
example.

The example above uses a tree diagram to solve a problem. Tree diagrams
can also be used sometimes to help solve problems involving conditional
probability. The next example deals with the same situation as Example 3, but
a different question is asked.

Example 4
An ‘A’ level teaching group has 7 boys and 3 girls.
2 students are selected at random from this group.
Find the probability that the first student chosen is a girl, given that the second choice
is a boy.
The red paths show
the “given” events
Solution
The probabilities can be shown on a tree diagram.
6 7 6 7
Boy  
9 10 9 15

7 Boy
3 7 3 7
10
Girl  
9 10 9 30

7 3 7 7
Boy  
3 9 10 9 30
10
Girl
2 3 2 1
Girl  
9 10 9 15
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P(G1  B 2)
(P(G1  B2) =
P ( B 2)
7
P( G1  B2 ) = P(first is a girl and second is a boy) =
30
7 7 21 7
P(B2) =   
15 30 30 10

7 10 1
P(G1  B2) = 30
 
7
10 30 3

Notice that the last part of Example 4 involves the conditional probability of
events out of normal sequence: i.e. the probability of a particular outcome in
the first event, given the probability of a particular outcome in the second
event. The next example also looks at a problem like this.

Example 5
A Head of Mathematics has analysed the results of students taking the modules
Statistics 1 (S1) and Statistics 2 (S2) over the last 10 years at her centre, collecting
information on students who have achieved a grade A or B.

She has estimated the following probabilities.

The probability that a student gets an A or B grade on S1 is 0.6.
If the student has achieved a grade A or B at S1, the probability that a student gets an
A or B grade on S2 is 0.7.
If the student has not achieved a grade A or B at S1, the probability that a student gets
an A or B grade on S2 is 0.35.

Calculate the probability that an A or B grade is achieved on S1, given that an A or B

grade has been achieved on S2.
Excluding re-sits, the large majority of students take
S1 before S2; the exception is a few students who
take the modules at the same time. However, the
question asks us to analyse the information in the
reverse order. Using the conditional probability
formula means that this is not a problem.

Solution
Display the probabilities on a tree diagram. A or B on S2
0.7

A or B
0.6 on S1
0.3 Not A or B on S2

A or B on S2
0.35
0.4 Not A or
B on S1
0.65 Not A or B on S2

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Edexcel S1 Probability 2 section Notes and Examples

Let X be the event that the result on S1 was an A or B.

Let Y be the event that the result on S2 was an A or B.

We require the probability that an A or B grade is achieved on S1, given that an A or

B grade has been achieved on S2. This is P(X  Y).
P( X  Y )
P(X Y) =
P(Y )
P( X  Y ) = P(A or B grades on both modules) = 0.6  0.7 = 0.42
P(Y) = 0.6  0.7 + 0.4  0.35 = 0.42 + 0.14 = 0.56

P( X  Y ) 0.42 42 3
P(X  Y) =   
P(Y ) 0.56 56 4

For extra practice on probability, including conditional probability, try the

Probability puzzle.

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