Exponential Distribution: Most Widely Used Probability Distribution in Reliability Assessment
Exponential Distribution: Most Widely Used Probability Distribution in Reliability Assessment
Exponential Distribution
Most widely used probability distribution in reliability assessment.
Requirements:
-Events must be random Only applies to the useful life
-Hazard rate must be constant period of a system component
-λt
−λt dQ(t) d(1 - e ) −λt
R(t) = e Q(t) = 1 - e −λt f(t) =
dt
= dt
= λe
∞
R(t)
Mean Time to Failure, MTTF = ∫ t.f(t)dt = 1/λ 0.37
0
dQ(t) dR(t)
But, f(t) = =
dt dt 0 t 1/
time
∞ ∞
MTTF = - ∫t.dR(t) = ∫ R s ( t )dt 11
0 0
Example: Exponential Distribution
Find the mean time to failure of a component which has a failure rate of
2 failures per year. Calculate its reliability for different mission times,
e.g. 10, 1000, 10000 hours.
1.0
0.8
0.6
Rt)
0.4
0.2f/yr
0.2 1f/yr
2f/yr
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
time in 1000 hrs
A Posteriori Probability:
conditional probability that is assigned after relevant information
is taken into account.
13
A Posteriori Probability
Probability of component failing during t given that
it has survived up to T, Qc(t)
T+t
P(A|B) =
P(A ∩ B)
=
∫ f(t)dt
T
∞
P(B)
∫ f(t)dt
T
−λt
But, f(t) = λ e
t
Event
A: failure during t (shaded area)
B: surviving up to T (colored area)
T+t
Q (t) =
∫ T
λe- λt dt
=
e - λT − e - λ(T+ t)
= 1 - e −λt = a priori probability Q(t)
c ∞ - λT
e
∫ T
λe - λt dt
1 2 2
16
Example:
A simple electronic circuit consists of 6 transitors each having a failure rate of
10-6 f/hr, 4 diodes each having a failure rate of 0.5 x 10-6 f/hr, 3 capacitors each
having a failure rate of 0.2 x 10-6 f/hr, 10 resistors each having a failure rate of
5 x 10-6 f/hr and 2 switches each having a failure rate of 2 x 10-6 f/hr. Assuming
connectors and wiring are 100% reliable, evaluate the equivalent failure rate
of the system and the probability of the system surviving 1000 and 10000 hours
if all components must operate for system success.
n
Equivalent failure rate of the system, λe = ∑ λi
i =1
= 6(10-6 ) + 4(0.5 x 10-6 ) + 3(0.2 x 10-6 ) + 10(5 x 10-6 ) + 2(2 x 10-6 ) = 6.26 x 10-5 f/hr
−6
−λ t − 6.26 x 10 x1000
Rs(1000 hr) = e e = e = 0.9393
−6
−λ t − 6.26 x 10 x10000
Rs(10,000 hr) = e e = e = 0.5347
17
Example:
Consider a system comprising of 4 identical units each having a failure rate of
0.1 f/yr. Evaluate the probability of the system surviving 0.5 years and 5 years
if at least two units must operate successfully.