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III. SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
A. SAMPLE MEAN
1. POPULATION VARIANCE KNOWN
a. NORMAL POPULATION
The mean of , when xi are iid with is found by exploiting the fact
that expectation is a linear operator
The var of is found by exploiting the same property
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DISTRIBUTION OF
Suppose
The sample mean is a linear combination of random variables that are
normally distributed. We therefore conclude that
also
Example: Consider the population of errors in statistics books. We
assume that this r.v. is normally distributed. If we draw a sample of n
= 9 from this population with = 20 and = 25. What is the probability
that will exceed 22?
Note that as n increases, the variance of diminishes. Therefore
gets larger and the probability that differs from the population mean
diminishes. Recall the weak law of large numbers.
b. NON-NORMAL POPULATIONS
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Example: A machine produces 100 sneakers at a time. Because of air
bubbles, etc., there is a probability of .1 that a randomly selected
sneaker is defective.
The mean number of defectives in a production run is
the variance is
Using the CLT we assert that x, the number of defectives in a run, is a
normal random variable. Hence
If we were 'doubting Thomas' and did it using the binomial we would
find
Which is a fair approximation?
The following flow diagram should aid you deciding when to use the
binomial and when to rely on the normal as an approximation.
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III. A.2. a. POPULATION VARIANCE UNKNOWN, NORMAL POPULATION
Consider the possibility that we do not know the population variance
but do know that our random variable has a normal distribution.
Fortunately we have s2, the sample variance, which might serve as a
reasonable approximation of . Consequently, we construct the new
random variable
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Note: 1. The expected value of this is still zero.
2. We have added some uncertainty in using s2 to approximate . In
fact, the variance depends on the sample size.
As a side note: Recall
and we can show
Let us divide the by its degrees of freedom
and take its square root
Now consider dividing our N(0, 1) by our
to get
After canceling terms and rearranging we get
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Example: Acreage sales are normal. For any given year suppose that the
mean acreage per sale in a particular state is known to be 100. We have
calculated s to be 20 from a sample of n = 9. What is the probability
that our sample mean will exceed 109?
III. A.2. b. NON NORMAL POPULATION
If the population is non-normal and is unknown then there is little
that we can say, in a probabilistic sense, about the outcome of a
sampling experiment. However, real life is not the same as theory and
you will often see people using a t or normal probability table if the
sample is reasonably large. This is wrong!
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III.B.1. DISTRIBUTION OF s2
Assume
Recall
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where
or
Note
recall
Also
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We therefore conclude the following
Example: Find s2 when n = 17, = 40
From the chi square tables we find 'a' = 19.4
III.B.2. DISTRIBUTION OF s12/s22
Assume
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Recall
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