Probability

Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with calculating the likelihood of a given event's
occurrence, which is expressed as a number between 1 and 0.
OR Probability is the extent to which something is likely to happen.
The word probability has two basic meanings:
(i) a quantitative measure of uncertainty and
(ii) a measure of degree of belief in a particular statement or problem.
For example uncertainty is involved in tossing coin, selection of balls and drawing of a card etc.
Set: A well defined collection of distinct objects is known as set.
Experiment: A planned activity or process whose results yield a set of data is called an experiment.
Trial: A single performance of an experiment is called a trial.
Outcome: The result obtained from an experiment or a trial is called an outcome.
Random experiment: An experiment in which outcomes vary from trial to trial even though it is
repeated a large number of times under exactly same conditions is called a random experiment.
Properties of random experiment:
A random experiment has following properties:
i). The experiment can be repeated, practically or theoretically, any number of times.
ii). The experiment always has two or more possible outcomes. An experiment that has one possible
outcome is not a random experiment.
iii). The outcome of each repetition is unpredictable, i.e. it has some degree of uncertainty.
Sample space: A set consisting of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is known as a
sample space.
It is usually denoted by letter “S”.
Event: An event is an individual outcome or any number of outcomes (sample points) of a random
experiment. OR
A subset of sample space is known as event.
Sample point: Each element of sample space is called sample point.
Types of events:
(i) Simple event
(ii) Compound event
(iii) Certain or sure event
(iv) Impossible event
(v) Mutually exclusive events
(vi) Not mutually exclusive events
(vii) Exhaustive events
(viii) Equally likely events
Simple event: An event that contains exactly one sample point, is defined as a simple event.
Compound event: It contains more than one sample point and is produced by the union of simple
events.
For example, The occurrence of a 6 when a die is thrown is a simple event, while the occurrence of a
sum of 10 with a pair of dice, is a compound event, as it can be decomposed into three simple events
(4,6), (5,5) and (6,4).
Certain or sure event: A sure event is the one that contains the whole sample space.
Let S  a, b, c
Then the eight (23=8) possible subsets are
 ,{a},{b},{c},{a, b},{a, c},{b, c},{a, b, c}
Each of these subsets is an event. The subset A  {a, b, c} is the sample space itself and is also an event.
It always occurs and is known as sure event.
n( A) 3
P( A)   1
n( S ) 3
Impossible event: An impossible event is the one that does not contain any element of the sample
space, and it can never occur.
As in the above example, empty set A  {}or is also an event but it is known as impossible event
because it can never occur.
n( A) 0
P( A)   0
n( S ) 3
Mutually exclusive events: Two events of a single experiment are said to be mutually exclusive or
disjoint if and only if they cannot both occur at the same time.
For example when we toss a coin, we get either a head or a tail, but not both, so the two events head
and tail are mutually exclusive events.
Not mutually exclusive events: If two events can occur at the same time, they are not mutually
exclusive events, e.g., if we draw a card from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, it can be both a
king and a diamond. Therefore kings and diamonds are not mutually exclusive.
Exhaustive events: When the union of mutually exclusive events is the entire sample space S, then
events are said to be collectively exhaustive. For example, in coin tossing experiment, head and coin
are collectively exhaustive set of events.
Equally likely events: Two events A and B are said to be equally likely, when one event is as likely
to occur as the other. For example, when a fair coin is tossed, the head is as likely to appear as the tail,
and the proportion of times each side is expected to appear is ½.
 Additive and Multiplicative Rules
Additive Rules
(for not mutually exclusive events)
(When two events are not mutually exclusive, we must subtract one of the two probabilities of the outcomes
that are common to both events, since they have been counted twice.)
When two events A and B of the same experiment are not mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will
occur is
n( A  B) n( A)  n( B)  n( A  B)
P( A  B)    n( A  B)  n( A)  n( B)  n( A  B)
n( S ) n( S )
 P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)

For example, the experiment is to roll a die.

The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
The event A is to get an odd number, A = {1, 3, 5} ⊆ S.
The event B is to get a number greater than 4, B = {5, 6} ⊆ S.
As A  B  1, 3, 5 5, 6  5   , the events A and B are not mutually exclusive.
3 2 1 4
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)    
6 6 6 6
Note: This rule can also be used when the events are mutually exclusive, since (A ∩ B) will always equal 0.
(for mutually exclusive events)
When two events A and B of the same experiment are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will
occur is
n( A  B) n( A) n( B)
P( A  B)     P( A)  P( B)
n( S ) n( S ) n( S )
For example, the experiment is to roll a die. The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes,
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
The event A is to get an odd number, A = {1, 3, 5} ⊆ S.
The event B is to get a 6, B = {6} ⊆ S.
n( A  B) n( A) n( B) 3 1 4
P( A  B)      
n( S ) n( S ) n( S ) 6 6 6
Example 1: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of dice is tossed?
Solution: Let A be the event that 7 occurs, and B be the event that 11 comes up.
6 1 2 1
Then, P  A    , P  B  
36 6 36 18
1 1 2
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)   
6 18 9
Example 2: A card is drawn from well shuffled pack of 52 playing cards. What is the probability
that
 (i) Selected card is red or a spade (spade is black coloured card).
(ii) The selected card is a spade or an ace.
Solution:
(i) Let A be the event that card is red and B be the event that card is a spade. (Mutually exclusive events)
26
P  A   0.5
52
13
P  B   0.25
52
P  A or B   P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  0.5  0.25  0.75
(ii) Let A be the event that card is spade and B be the event that card is an ace. (Not-mutually exclusive events)
13 4 1
P  A  , P  B   , P( A  B) 
52 52 52
13 4 1 16
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B )      0.3076
52 52 52 52
Example 3: Suppose that 25% of the population of a city read newspaper A, 20% read newspaper B,
30% read newspaper C, 10% read newspaper A and B both, 8% read A and C both, 5% read newspaper
B and C and 4% of the population read all three newspapers. If a person from this city is selected at
random. What is the probability that he or she reads no one of these newspapers?
Solution:
P  A  0.25, P  B   0.20, P  C   0.30, P( A  B)  0.10, P( A  C)  0.08, P( B  C)  0.05, P( A  B  C)  0.04
P( A  B  C )  P( A)  P( B)  P(C )  P( A  B)  P( A  C )  P( B  C )  P( A  B  C )
 0.25  0.20  0.30  0.10  0.08  0.05  0.04
 0.79  0.23  0.56
P  He or She reads no newspaper   1  P( A  B  C)  1  0.56  0.44

Conditional Probability
The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has occurred is called a
conditional probability and is denoted by P  B A  . The symbol P  B A  is usually read as “the probability of
B, given A”.
P( A  B)
P  B A  , P  A  0
P( A)
P( A  B)
P  A B  , P  B  0
P( B)
If A and B are Independent Events then,
P  A B   P( A)
P  B A  P( B)
Example 1: Two coins are tossed. What is the conditional probability that two heads result, given that there is
at least one head. The sample space for this experiment is S  HH , HT , TH , TT  .
Let A be the event that two heads appear, and B, the event that there is at least one head.
Then we need P  A B 
Since A  HH  , B  HH , HT , TH  and A  B  HH 
1 3 1
P( A)  , P( B)  and P ( A  B ) 
4 4 4
1
P( A  B)
Hence P  A B  
1
= 4= .
P( B) 3 3
4
Example 2: A man tosses two fair dice. What is the conditional probability that the sum of the two dice will
be 7, given that (i) the sum is odd, (ii) the sum is greater than 6, (iii) the two dice had the same outcome?
Solution: The sample space S for this experiment consists of the following 36 equally likely outcomes;
S={ 1,1 , 1, 2 , 1,3 , 1, 4 , 1,5 , 1,6 ,
 2,1 ,  2, 2 ,  2,3 ,  2, 4 ,  2,5 ,  2,6 ,
3,1 , 3, 2 , 3,3 , 3, 4 , 3,5 , 3,6  ,
 4,1 ,  4, 2 ,  4,3 ,  4, 4 ,  4,5 ,  4,6 ,
5,1 , 5, 2 , 5,3 , 5, 4 , 5,5 , 5,6 ,
 6,1 ,  6, 2 ,  6,3 ,  6, 4 , 6,5 , 6,6  }
Let A = {the sum is 7}, B = {the sum is odd}, C = {the sum is greater than 6}, and
D ={the two dice has the same outcomes}. Then
A  1,6 ,  2,5 , 3, 4  ,  4,3 , 5, 2  ,  6,1 ,
B  1, 2 , 1, 4 , 1,6 ,  2,1 ,  2,3 ,  2,5 , 3, 2  , 3, 4  , 3,6  ,  4,1 ,  4,3 ,  4,5 , 5, 2 , 5, 4  , 5,6  ,  6,1 , 6,3 , 6,5
C  1,6 ,  2,5 ,  2,6 , 3, 4  , 3,5 , 3,6  ,  4,3 ,  4, 4  ,  4,5  ,  4,6  ,  5, 2 ,  5,3 , 5, 4 , 5,5 , 5,6 ,  6,1 ,  6, 2  , 6,3 , 6, 4  , 6,5  ,  6,6

D  1,1 ,  2, 2 ,  3,3 ,  4, 4 , 5,5 ,  6,6  ,

A  B  1,6 ,  2,5 , 3, 4 ,  4,3 , 5, 2  ,  6,1,
A  C  1,6 ,  2,5 ,  3, 4 ,  4,3 , 5, 2  ,  6,1,
A D 
6 18 21 6
 P( A)  , P( B)  , P(C )  , P( D) 
36 36 36 36
6 6
P ( A  B )  , P ( A  C )  , P ( A  D )  0.
36 36
Hence using the definition of conditional probability, we get
P( A  B) 6 36 1
P  A B    
P( B) 36 18 3
P( A  C ) 6 36 2
P A C    
P(C ) 36 21 7
 P( A  D)
P  A D 
36
 0  0
P ( D) 6
Multiplicative Rules
If in an experiment events A and B can both occur, then
P( A  B)  P( A).P  B A  , provided P  A   0

P( A  B)  P( B  A)  P( B).P  A B  , provided P  B   0
If two events A and B are independent, then
P( A  B)  P( A).P  B 
Example 6.20 A box contains 15 items, 4 of which are defective and 11 are good. Two items are selected.
What is the probability that the first is good and the second defective.
Solution: Let A represents the event that the first item selected is good and B, the event that the second item is
defective.
Then we need to calculate the probability of the joint event A  B by the rule
P( A  B)  P( A).P  B A 
11
Now P  A  
15
There remain 14 items of which 4 are defective. Therefore the probability of selecting a defective after a good
has been selected, i.e P  B A  
4
14
Hence P( A  B)  P( A).P  B A    
11 4 44
 0.16
15 14 210