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SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Sensitivity analysis is a technique used to determine the performance of each process and
how varied weight values of the attributes: Economics, Manufacturability, Sustainability,
Environmental Impact and Safety will impact the chosen process. This is done to compare the
response of various processes upon changing conditions. The Single-Factor and the Two-Factor
Analysis are employed in this analysis.

Table 3.1. Worst-Case and Best-Case Benchmark for each Attribute

BEST
BEST BEST BEST BEST
ATTRIBUTES WORST SAFET
ECON. MANU. SUST. ENVI.
Y
Economics 18.33 21.67 21.67 18.33 18.33 21.67
Manufacturability 14.67 18.67 18.67 14.67 14.67 18.67
Sustainability 12.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00
Environmental
12.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00
Impact
Safety 12.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00

The worst – case benchmark are the lowest weighted scores from each attribute while the
best – score benchmark for each attribute are designated by the process with the highest weighted
score in that attribute. Table 3.1 shows the worst – case and best – case benchmark for each attribute
based on the scores used in the process selection.

Table 3.2. Score and Weight of Attributes

LEVEL OF
ATTRIBUTES SCORE WEIGHT
IMPORTANCE
Economics 1 100.00 0.5224
Manufacturability 3 21.43 0.1119
Sustainability 5 10.00 0.0522
Environmental Impact 4 20.00 0.1045
Safety 2 40.00 0.2090
TOTAL 191.43 1.00

The level of importance of each attribute had been predetermined based on the significance
of each attribute to the process. Economics was deemed the most significant attribute and is scored
as 100. The scores for the succeeding attributes are calculated by getting of the difference of the
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best value and worst value for that attribute divided by the best value for that attribute multiplied by
one hundred. The scores for each attribute are presented in Table 3.2.

Table 3.3. Process Choice

ATTRIBUTES P1 P2 P3
Economics 1.00 0.00 1.00
Manufacturability 1.00 0.00 1.00
Sustainability 0.00 1.00 0.33
Environmental Impact 1.00 1.00 0.00
Safety 1.00 1.00 0.00
TOTAL 1.9477 1.3657 0.8607
CHOSEN PROCESS P1

The three proposed process were rated from 0 to 1. The process with the highest score for
each attribute was rated as 1. On the other hand, the attribute that has the lowest score is rated as
0. The rate of the process in between the highest and the lowest is computed by the difference of
the highest score and the middle score divided by the difference of the middle score and the lowest
score. The corresponding rate for each process for each attribute is shown in Table 3.3. The total
score for each process is calculated as the sum product of the score and weight.
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Sensitivity Analysis
Single-Factor Method
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Single-Factor Sensitivity Analysis

In the Single-Factor Analysis, one of the attributes is changed while the others are kept at
baseline values to see its effect of this attribute to the choice of process. This is done for each
attribute. The Threshold Values identify the value of the attribute in which the decision changes.

Table 3.4. Sensitivity Analysis of Best-Economics Score

BEST ECONOMICS
SCORE CHOICE
10 P1
20 P1
30 P1
40 P1
50 P1
60 P1
70 P1
80 P1
90 P1
100 P1
200 P1
300 P1
400 P1
500 P1
600 P1
700 P1
800 P1
900 P1
1000 P1
*Base Case score is 100.00

The results in Table 3.4 indicate that the chosen process would still be Process 1 even if the
Best-Economics score is changed from the base case score of 100. Further increasing the scores
even up to 1000, the choice of process is still Process 1. This implies that the most economical
among the three processes is Process 1 and is the best route for the production of ammonium nitrate.
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Table 3.5. Sensitivity Analysis of Best-Manufacturability Score

BEST ECONOMICS
SCORE SCORE
10 P1
20 P1
30 P1
40 P1
50 P1
60 P1
70 P1
80 P1
90 P1
100 P1
200 P1
300 P1
400 P1
500 P1
600 P1
700 P1
800 P1
900 P1
1000 P1
*Base score 21.43
The results in Table 3.5 indicate that the chosen process would still be Process 1 even if the
Best-Manufacturability score is changed from the base case score of 21.43 Further increasing the
scores even up to 1000, the choice of process is still Process 1. This implies that the best option in
terms of manufacturability among the three processes is Process 1 and is the best route for the
production of ammonium nitrate.
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Table 3.6. Sensitivity Analysis of Best-Sustainability Score

BEST SUSTAINABILITY
SCORE CHOICE
10 P1
20 P1
30 P1
40 P1
50 P1
60 P1
70 P1
80 P1
90 P1
100 P1
200 P2
300 P2
400 P2
500 P2
600 P2
700 P2
800 P2
900 P2
1000 P2
*Base score 10.00
Table 3.6 shows that a Sustainability score of 200 the chosen process changes from Process
1 to Process 2. Moreover, increasing the value further to 1000 the model still chooses Process 2 as
the best process. It can be assumed that at an analysis considering sustainability and holding other
attributes constant the most sustainable process is Process 2.
Table 3.7. Threshold Values for Sensitivity Analysis of Best-Sustainability Score

BEST SUSTAINABILITY
SCORE CHOICE
110 P1
120 P1
130 P2
140 P2
150 P2
160 P2
170 P2
180 P2
190 P2
200 P2
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Table 3.7 shows that at Sustainability value of 130.00 the choice of process changes from
Process 1 to Process 2. And continuously chooses Process 2 upon further increased value.

Table 3.8. Ranking at Threshold Values for Sensitivity Analysis of

Best-Sustainability Score
LEVEL OF
ATTRIBUTES SCORE WEIGHT
IMPORTANCE
Economics 2 100.00 0.3211
Manufacturability 4 21.43 0.0688
Sustainability 1 130.00 0.4174
Environmental Impact 5 20.00 0.0642
Safety 3 40.00 0.1284
TOTAL 311.43 1

Table 3.8 shows the ranking of attributes at increased score of Sustainability. At this
condition the weight percentage of Sustainability increased from 5.22% to 41.74% edging Economics
with only 32.11%. This leaves Manufacturability at 6.88%, Environmental Impact at 6.42% and Safety
at 12.84%. Based on the weight calculated, the expected process would have:
1. Low cost due to low raw material cost as suggested by the high sustainability score
percentage.
2. High revenue due to high economic percentage.
3. Compromised safety and environmental conditions based on score percentage less than
10%.
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Table 3.9. Sensitivity Analysis of Best-Environmental Impact Score

BEST ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
SCORE CHOICE
10 P1
20 P1
30 P1
40 P1
50 P1
60 P1
70 P1
80 P1
90 P1
100 P1
120 P1
140 P1
160 P1
180 P1
200 P1
300 P1
400 P1
500 P1
600 P1
700 P1
800 P1
900 P1
1000 P1
*Base score 20.00

The results in Table 3.9 indicate that the chosen process would still be Process 1 even if the
Best-Environmental Impact score is changed from the base case score of 100. Further increasing
the scores even up to 1000, the choice of process is still Process 1. This implies that the most
environment - friendly among the three processes is Process 1 and is the best route for the
production of ammonium nitrate.
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Table 3.10. Sensitivity Analysis of Best-Safety Score

BEST SAFETY
SCORE CHOICE
10 P1
20 P1
30 P1
40 P1
50 P1
60 P1
70 P1
80 P1
90 P1
100 P1
120 P1
140 P1
160 P1
180 P1
200 P1
300 P1
400 P1
500 P1
600 P1
700 P1
800 P1
900 P1
1000 P1
*Best score is 40.00

The results in Table 3.10 indicate that the chosen process would still be Process 1 even if
the Best-Safety score is changed from the base case score of 100. Further increasing the scores
even up to 1000, the choice of process is still Process 1. This implies that the safest among the three
processes is Process 1 and is the best route for the production of ammonium nitrate.
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Sensitivity Analysis
Two-Factor Method
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Two-Factor Sensitivity Analysis

Two-Factor Sensitivity Analysis provides insight on the outcome upon changing a

combination of any two attributes.

Table 3.11. Economics – Manufacturability Sensitivity Analysis

Economics Score
Manufacturability
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
10 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
20 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
30 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
40 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
90 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
100 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
*Economics Base Case Score is 100 .00
*Manufacturability Base Case Score is 21.43

Analysis of Economics-Manufacturability combination shows that Process 1 is an

appropriate choice at any point.
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Table 3.12. Economics-Sustainability Sensitivity Analysis

Economics Score
Sustainability
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
10 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
20 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
30 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
40 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
90 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1
100 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
*Economics Base Case Score is 100.00
*Sustainability Base Case Score is 10.00

Table 3.12 shows that at Economics value of 80 to 100 with corresponding Sustainability
value of 10 to 100 and even higher, the chosen process is constantly Process 1. Though passing
when score mark for Economics is at 10 to 70 with changes in score of Sustainability from 40 to
100, the process shifts from Process 1 to Process 2.
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Table 3.13. Threshold Values for Economics-Sustainability Sensitivity Analysis

Economics Score
Sustainability
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
40 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
41 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
42 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
43 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
44 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
45 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
46 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
47 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
48 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
49 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
51 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
52 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
53 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
54 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
55 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
56 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
57 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
58 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
59 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
61 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
62 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
63 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
64 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
65 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
66 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
67 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
68 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
69 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
71 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
72 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
73 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
74 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
75 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
76 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
77 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
78 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
79 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
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Table 3.13 shows the exact threshold values at which Process 1 would change to Process
2 based on the Economics-Sustainability combination. In Table 3.12, it is shown that the process will
change at different points from an economics score of 10 to 70 and sustainability score of 40 to 100,
but further lowering of the sustainability score at certain points for a corresponding economics score
the choice would change to Process 2. However, the combination of the assessed scores are way
far from the base case score of 100 and 13, thus Process 1 is still the appropriate choice.

Table 3.14. Ranking for Economics-Sustainability at Threshold Values

ATTRIBUTES LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE SCORE WEIGHT
Economics 5 10.00 0.0761
Manufacturability 3 21.43 0.1631
Sustainability 1 40.00 0.3043
Environmental Impact 1 40.00 0.3043
Safety 4 20.00 0.0600
TOTAL 131.43 1.00

Table 3.14 shows the new ranking of the level of importance after Economics - Sustainability
score variation. The weight as Process 1 shifts to Process 2 are as follows; Economics decreases
from 52.24% to 7.61%, followed by Environmental Impact and Sustainability tied at 30.43%, Safety
at a decreased value of 6.00% and Manufacturability also at an increased weight of 16.31%. The
new ranking obtained is similar to the base ranking where Economics has the lowest weight which
means that you would have less profit in this combination. Also, it jeopardizes the overall safety of
the workers, but is environment – friendly due to an increase in weight. Again, although Process 2 is
the best choice it should still possess a balance value for all the attributes considered.
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Table 3.15. Economics – Environmental Impact Sensitivity Analysis

Economics Score
Environmental
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Impact Score
10 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
20 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
30 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
40 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
90 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
100 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
*Economics Base Case Score is 100
*Environmental Impact Base Case Score is 20.00

Analysis of Economics – Environmental Impact combination shows that Process 1 is an

appropriate choice at any point.
Table 3.16. Economics-Safety Sensitivity Analysis
Economics Score
Safety
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
10 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
20 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
30 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
40 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
90 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
100 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
*Economics Base Case Score is 100
*Safety Base Case Score is 40.00

Analysis of Economics – Safety combination shows that Process 1 is an appropriate choice

at any point.
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Table 3.17. Manufacturability - Sustainability Sensitivity Analysis

Manufacturability Score
Sustainability
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
100 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
110 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
120 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
130 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
140 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
150 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
160 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
170 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1 P1
180 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
190 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3 P3
200 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3
*Manufacturability Base Case Score is 21.43
*Sustainability Base Case Score is 10.00

Table 3.17 shows that at Manufacturability value of 10 to 100 with corresponding

Sustainability value of 10 to 110, the chosen process is constantly Process 1. Though passing when
score mark for Manufacturability is at 10 to 80 with changes in score of Sustainability from 120 to
180, the process shifts from Process 1 to Process 2 and at score mark for Manufacturability is at 90
to 100 with changes in score of Sustainability at 190 to 200 the process shifts from Process 1 to
Process 3.
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Table 3.18. Threshold Values for Manufacturability - Sustainability Sensitivity Analysis

Manufacturability Score
Sustainability
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
170 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
171 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
172 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
173 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
174 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
175 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
176 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
177 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
178 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
179 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
180 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P1 P1
181 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P3
182 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P3
183 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P3
184 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P3
185 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P3
186 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P3
187 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P3
189 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P1 P3
190 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3 P3
191 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3 P3
192 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3 P3
193 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3 P3
194 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3 P3
195 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3
196 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3
197 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3
198 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3
199 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3
200 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P2 P3

Table 3.18 shows that at Manufacturability score 10 to 70 with corresponding Sustainability

score of 170 to 200, the prominent process of choice is Process 2. However, a shift starts at
Manufacturability score of 80 to 100 with corresponding Sustainability score of 170 to 200 and shifts
at some point in Process 1 and Process 3.
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Table 3.19. Ranking for Manufacturability - Sustainability at Threshold Values

ATTRIBUTES LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE SCORE WEIGHT
Economics 2 100.00 0.2375
Manufacturability 3 80.00 0.1900
Sustainability 1 181.00 0.4299
Environmental Impact 4 40.18 0.0475
Safety 5 25.45 0.0950
TOTAL 421 1.00

The varied values of Manufacturability – Sustainability score shows that the most important
attribute would be Sustainability at 42.99% followed by Economics at 23.75%, Manufacturability at
19.00% Environmental Impact at 4.75% and Safety at 9.50%.
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Table 3.20. Environmental Impact - Safety Sensitivity Analysis

Environmental Impact Score
Safety
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
10 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
20 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
30 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
40 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
90 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
100 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
* Environmental Impact Base Case Score is 20.00
*Safety Base Case Score is 40.00

Analysis of Environmental Impact – Safety combination shows that Process 1 is an

appropriate choice at any point.
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Table 3.21. Manufacturability - Environmental Impact Sensitivity Analysis

Manufacturability Score
Environmental
Impact 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
10 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
20 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
30 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
40 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
90 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
100 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
*Manufacturability Base Case Score is 21.43
*Environmental Impact Base Case Score is 20.00

Table 3.21 shows that at any Safety-Environmental Impact assessment combinations,

Process 1 does not change as the appropriate choice. The combinations always return Process 1 as
the chosen process.
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Table 3.22. Manufacturability - Safety Sensitivity Analysis

Manufacturability Score
Safety
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
10 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
20 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
30 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
40 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
90 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
100 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
*Manufacturability Base Case Score is 21.48
*Safety Base Case Score is 40.00
Table 3.22 shows that at any Safety-Environmental Impact assessment combinations,
Process 1 does not change as the appropriate choice. The combinations always return Process 1 as
the chosen process.
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Table 3.23. Sustainability – Environmental Impact Sensitivity Analysis

Sustainability Score
Environmental
Impact 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
10 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
20 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
30 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
40 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
90 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
100 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
*Sustainability Base Case Score is 10.00
*Environmental Impact Base Case Score is 20.00

Table 3.23 shows that at any Safety-Environmental Impact assessment combinations,

Process 1 does not change as the appropriate choice. The combinations always return Process 1 as
the chosen process.
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Table 3.24. Sustainability – Safety Sensitivity Analysis

Sustainability Score
Safety
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Score
10 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
20 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
30 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
40 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
90 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
100 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
*Sustainability Base Case Score is 60.27
*Safety Base Case Score is 25.45
Table 3.24 shows that at any Safety-Environmental Impact assessment combinations,
Process 1 does not change as the appropriate choice. The combinations always return Process 1 as
the chosen process.
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SUMMARY OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

The sensitivity analysis for the process aims to identify and justify the appropriate process
for the Production of Ammonium Nitrate. Three processes, namely the Uhde Neutralization (Process
1), GIAP High Density Prilling process (Process 2) and Production from Nitrophosphate - Odda
Process (Process 3) were evaluated against five chosen attributes. At either increasing or decreasing
the base score values we were able to project the response of each process to changes in the
attributes. In the presented analyses above, Single-Factor and Two-Factor analysis is done.

Table 3.25. Single - Factor Sensitivity Analysis Summary

SCORE ECON. MANUF. SUSTAIN. SAFETY ENVI.
IMPACT
10 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
20 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
30 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
40 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
50 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
60 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
70 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
80 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
90 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
100 P1 P1 P1 P1 P1
200 P1 P1 P2 P1 P1
300 P1 P1 P2 P1 P1
400 P1 P1 P2 P1 P1
500 P1 P1 P2 P1 P1
600 P1 P1 P2 P1 P1
700 P1 P1 P2 P1 P1
800 P1 P1 P2 P1 P1
900 P1 P1 P2 P1 P1
1000 P1 P1 P2 P1 P1

Based on Single – factor Sensitivity Analysis it may observed that generally only Process 1
and Process 2 via for the process to be utilized. Each base score for each attribute are changed with
values ranging from 0% up to 1000%. Considering the Economics attribute the is constant to Process
1. With regards to Manufacturability Score, Safety Score, and Environmental Impact when raised to
1000% it still chooses Process 1 over the other two. However, in Sustainability Score, it shifts when
the score is raised to 200% to Process 2. Therefore, based on the scores in single factor analysis,
Process 1 is more appropriate in the long run, than the two other processes.
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Table 3.26. Two - Factor Sensitivity Analysis Summary

ATTRIBUTES MANUF. SUSTAIN. SAFETY ENVI. IMPACT
Process does Process Process does Process does
not change changes from not change not change
from P1, even P1 to P2 at from P1, even from P1, even
ECONOMICS at 40% at Safety at at Economics
Manufacturabili Sustainability 100% and at 100% and
ty at 100% and and 10% Economics at Environmental
Economics at Economics. 100%. Impact at
100%. 100%.
Process Process does Process does
changes from not change not change
MANUFACTU P1 to P2 at from P1, even from P1, even
RABILITY 10% at at
Manufacturabi Manufacturabili Manufacturabili
lity and 120% ty at 100% and ty at 100% and
Sustainability. Safety at Environmental
100%. Impact at
100%.
Process does Process does
not change not change
from P1, even from P1, even
SUSTAINABIL at at
ITY Sustainability Sustainability
at 100% and at 100% and
Environmental Environmental
Impact at Impact at
100%. 100%.
. Process does
not change
from P1, even
SAFETY at Safety at
100% and
Environmental
Impact at
100%.

At variation of a combination of the attributes considered the choice of process behaves

differently. Analysis using Two – Factor revealed that change occurs when the scores are deviated
from the base scores in the all combinations. Process 1 is the chosen process for all combination
except for Economics – Sustainability and Manufacturability – Sustainability which suggests Process
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2 over Process 1 at increased Sustainability and lowered Manufacturability and lowered Economics
compared to base scores.

In conclusion, using the sensitivity analysis as basis for choosing a process for the optimum
production of Ammonium Nitrate, bearing in mind that the most important attribute considered is
Economics and considering that other attributes must still be in a balance with each other, the chosen
process is Process 1.