Bank Central Asia

(BBCA IJ)
3Q17 review: Quality above everything

For 3Q17, Bank Central Asia (BBCA) delivered a clean-cut net profit of IDR6,306.9bn
(+13.7% YoY), beating our estimate (IDR5,852.0bn) by 7.8%. BBCA’s reported total
Financials
operating profit in the quarter was IDR14.3tr, broadly in line with our expectation
(IDR14.4tr); SG&A expenses were IDR5.5tr, also in line with our estimate. Meanwhile,
Company Report
provisioning expenses were well-contained at IDR893.7bn, much lower than our
November 2, 2017 projection (IDR1.6tr). Indeed, BBCA’s asset quality metrics were well-controlled
(precautionary loan ratio declined from 2.5% to 1.8%). We revise down our FY17
provision expense estimate by 32.3% to IDR2.62tr (from IDR3.87tr). We firmly believe
(Maintain) Trading Buy that BBCA is the most predictable bank among listed peers, supported by its strong
management team and stellar deposit franchise.
Target Price (12M, IDR) 23,610 Key points on operations
Share Price (11/1/17, IDR) 21,325 During 3Q17, we noticed management’s continued appetite for safe growth and reduced
concerns over the bank’s liquidity situation. Key points are as follows.
Expected Return 10.7%  BCA added another 1.4% QoQ growth to its loan book (YTD growth of 5.7%).
The bank’s lending growth was primarily driven by the consumer segment (up
3.0% QoQ), which reinforces our view that the bank is gearing up with safety in
mind (albeit with lower margins).
Consensus OP (17F, IDRtr) 29.1
 Deposit growth picked up 0.4% QoQ, which is clear evidence that the bank is
EPS Growth (17F, %) 13.8 comfortable with its liquidity situation. In particular, we saw muted growth of
P/E (17F, x) 22.4 time deposits (up 0.8% QoQ) and negative current account growth (down 2.6%
Industry P/E (17F, x) 14.6 QoQ).
Benchmark P/E (17F, x) 17.5
 Net interest margin dropped 7bps QoQ to 6.19%. Two key factors led to the
Market Cap (IDRbn) 525,768.1
squeeze: falling market yields and growth skewed towards safe borrowers (i.e.,
Shares Outstanding (mn) 24,655.0 consumer loans). Given the government’s intention to lower market yields
Free Float (mn) 10,613.9 combined with management’s focus on low yield-bearing consumer loans, we
Institutional Ownership (%) 18.6 expect to see continued pressures on margins.
Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 0.9
 BBCA’s asset quality was a mixed bag. NPL ratio picked up 6bps to 1.53%, but
52-Week Low (IDR) 13,950
precautionary loan ratio improved 72bps QoQ to 1.77%. Assuming BBCA applied
52-Week High (IDR) 21,375
the minimum provisioning guidelines, the bank would have incurred write-back
(%) 1M 6M 12M of provisions. That being said, we suspect BBCA still maintained conservative
Absolute 5.0 19.1 38.0 provisioning standards during the quarter. We see limited issues with its overall
Relative 2.7 12.8 26.5 credit quality and provisioning burden in 4Q17. We lower our provision expense
forecasts for FY17 by 32.3% to IDR2.62tr (from IDR3.87tr) and for FY18 by 15.2%
to IDR2.47tr (from IDR2.91tr).
(D-1yr=100) JCI BBCA
140
130 Maintain Trading Buy on fading credit quality concerns
120
110  The macro backdrop remains favorable, and we expect BBCA’s credit quality
100 improvement to drive improved earnings. We maintain our Trading Buy call and
90
raise our target price to IDR23,610 (from IDR21,850). Our target price was derived
11/16
11/16
12/16
1/17
1/17
2/17
3/17
3/17
4/17
5/17
5/17
6/17
7/17
8/17
8/17
9/17
10/17
10/17

by applying a P/B of 4.3x to our 12M rolling-forward BPS estimates.

PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia FY (Dec.) 12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F
Banks Total OP (IDRbn) 34,366.5 41,366.5 47,865.2 53,767.0 56,706.2 60,336.6
PPOP (IDRbn) 19,740.8 22,980.7 26,162.1 30,400.5 32,001.8 34,181.1
Taye Shim Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 17,815.6 20,741.1 22,657.1 25,839.2 29,381.5 31,714.7
+62-21-515-3281 Net Profit (IDRbn) 14,253.8 16,485.9 18,018.7 20,605.7 23,447.5 25,315.8
[email protected]
EPS (IDR) 578 669 731 836 951 1,027
BPS (IDR) 2,524 3,062 3,625 4,560 5,367 6,210
P/E (x) 13.6 19.6 18.2 18.5 22.4 20.8
P/B (x) 3.1 4.3 3.7 3.4 4.0 3.4
ROE (%) 25.0 23.9 21.8 20.4 19.1 17.7
ROA (%) 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.1
Note: NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates
November 2, 2017 Bank Central Asia

Figure 1. Loan growth by segment (quarterly) Figure 2. Deposit growth by segment (quarterly)

(QoQ, %) (QoQ, %)
20 25
3Q17 3Q17
2Q17 2Q17
15 3.0 20
1Q17 1Q17 0.8

10 15
11.5 12.0
1.4
5 0.5 10
5.4 1.2 6.0 0.4
2.5 1.9
0 5 1.8 6.9
-1.5 -1.8 8.4
-4.7 6.4
3.7
-5 0 0.9
-0.8 -0.5

-10 -5 -2.6
Corporate Commercial Consumer Total Savings Current account Time deposits Total

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 3. Net interest margin trajectory Figure 4. Asset quality metrics

(%) (%) NPL coverage ratio (L) (%)

450 NPL Ratio (R) 3.0
7.5
Precautionary loan ratio (R)
3Q17: 400
2.5
7.0 6.9%
350

300 2.0
6.5
250
1.5
6.0 3Q17: 200
6.2%
150 1.0
5.5
100
0.5
50
5.0
0 0.0
4.5
1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 5. Cost-to-income ratio Figure 6. 12-month forward P/B band

(%) (
(IDR)
60 25,000 4.0x

54.6 3.5x
55 20,000
52.4 51.7
50.6 3.0x
50 48.1 48.7 48.1 48.8 48.2 48.3
47.8
47.6 2.5x
46.6 46.0 46.2 46.2 15,000
44.6 45.0
45 43.6 44.1 44.2
43.5
43.4
10,000
40

5,000
35

30 0
1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 4/04 4/06 4/08 4/10 4/12 4/14 4/16 4/18

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 2

November 2, 2017 Bank Central Asia

Table 2. 3Q17 earnings review (IDRbn, %)

3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 QoQ YoY
Net interest Income 10,194.7 10,262.5 10,071.8 10,300.5 10,599.9 2.9 4.0
Non-Interest Income 3,344.3 3,843.5 3,426.2 3,614.9 3,696.3 2.3 10.5
Fee and commission income 2,348.3 2,524.0 2,379.0 2,555.0 2,631.2 3.0 12.0
Trading related income 515.3 760.2 438.8 451.4 446.6 -1.1 -13.3
Other operating income 480.8 559.3 608.4 608.5 618.5 1.6 28.6
Total operating profit 13,539.0 14,106.0 13,497.9 13,915.4 14,296.2 2.7 5.6
G&A expenses 5,455.8 5,843.4 6,981.4 6,258.0 5,533.9 -11.6 1.4
Pre-provisioning operating profit
8,083.2 8,262.6 6,516.5 7,657.4 8,762.3 14.4 8.4
(PPOP)
Loan loss provisions 1,132.4 1,423.1 248.7 686.9 893.7 30.1 -21.1
Net operating profit 6,950.8 6,839.5 6,267.8 6,970.5 7,868.6 12.9 13.2
Net non-operating income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NM NM
Pre-tax profit 6,950.8 6,839.5 6,267.8 6,970.5 7,868.6 12.9 13.2
tax expenses 1,393.4 1,345.2 1,278.8 1,421.7 1,555.3 9.4 11.6
Net profit 5,557.5 5,494.3 4,989.0 5,548.9 6,313.3 13.8 13.6
Minority interests 6.5 15.5 -0.5 3.7 6.4 NM NM
Attributable net profit 5,551.0 5,478.8 4,989.6 5,545.2 6,306.9 13.7 13.6
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 3

November 2, 2017 Bank Central Asia

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/Trading Buy/TP: IDR23,610)

Income Statement (Summarized) Balance Sheet (Summarized)

(IDRbn) 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F (IDRbn) 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F
Net interest income 35,891.7 40,215.0 42,486.7 44,569.2 Cash and cash equivalents 17,849 15,944 17,427 19,117
Non-interest income 11,973.6 13,552.1 14,219.5 15,767.4 Current account with BI 87,047 67,557 64,112 66,997
Net commission income 8,355.8 9,400.7 10,088.2 11,097.9 Placement at other banks 15,425 21,345 23,330 25,593
Trading related income 2,084.2 2,210.1 1,559.8 1,853.1 Securities assets 55,023 116,791 143,892 180,347
Other non-interest income 1,533.6 1,941.2 2,571.5 2,816.3 Net loans and advances 386,417 410,737 449,924 512,408
Total operating profit 47,865.2 53,767.0 56,706.2 60,336.6 Net loans 378,616 403,391 443,046 506,011
SG&A expenses 21,703.1 23,366.5 24,704.4 26,155.4 Gross Loans 387,643 415,896 458,442 525,146
Pre-provisioning OP 26,162.1 30,400.5 32,001.8 34,181.1 (Allowance for credit losses) 9,026 12,505 15,397 19,135
Net provisions 3,505.0 4,561.3 2,620.3 2,466.4 Total assets 594,373 676,739 762,058 874,372
Net operating profit 22,657.1 25,839.2 29,381.5 31,714.7 Total customer deposits 476,820 533,965 613,547 675,674
Non-operating income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Demand deposits 115,653 137,853 159,030 181,518
Pretax profit 22,657.1 25,839.2 29,381.5 31,714.7 Savings Deposits 244,608 270,352 300,051 329,080
Corporate tax 4,621.3 5,206.9 5,920.7 6,390.9 Time Deposits 113,405 121,929 150,277 160,481
Minority interest 17.1 26.5 13.3 8.0 Other deposits 3,154 3,832 4,188 4,594
Attributable net profit 18,018.7 20,605.7 23,447.5 25,315.8 Borrowings 4,195 5,036 5,879 6,463
Growth (%) Debentures 2,821 2,332 1,120 538
Net interest income 12.0 12.0 5.6 4.9 Total liabilities 504,748 564,024 629,506 720,948
Non-interest income 28.5 13.2 4.9 10.9 Capital stock 1,541 1,541 1,541 1,541
Total operating profit 15.7 12.3 5.5 6.4 Capital surplus 5,565 5,565 5,565 5,565
SG&A expenses 18.0 7.7 5.7 5.9 Accum. translation adjustments -2,294 4,478 5,374 5,642
Pre-provisioning operating profit 13.8 16.2 5.3 6.8 Retained earnings 83,481 99,592 118,350 138,602
Net provisions 56.5 30.1 -42.6 -5.9 Non-controlling interest 256 282 240 322
Net operating profit 9.2 14.0 13.7 7.9 Total shareholders' equity 89,625 112,715 132,553 153,424
Attributable net profit 9.3 14.4 13.8 8.0

Key performance indicators Balance sheet growth rate

12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F (%) 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F
Per share data Cash and cash equivalents -8.8 -10.7 9.3 9.7
EPS (IDR) 731 836 951 1,027 Current account with BI 84.8 -22.4 -5.1 4.5
EPS growth (%) 9.3 14.4 13.8 8.0 Placement at other banks 83.7 38.4 9.3 9.7
BPS (IDR) 3,625 4,560 5,367 6,210 Securities assets -27.9 112.3 23.2 25.3
BPS growth (%) 18.4 25.8 17.7 15.7 Net loans and advances 11.1 6.3 9.5 13.9
DPS 160 200 190 205 Net loans 11.4 6.5 9.8 14.2
Key ratios (%) Gross Loans 11.9 7.3 10.2 14.6
Non-int. income/ Total OP 25.0 25.2 25.1 26.1 (Allowance for credit losses) 34.6 38.5 23.1 24.3
Cost-to-income 45.3 43.5 43.6 43.3 Total assets 7.5 13.9 12.6 14.7
Provisions/ Loans 0.95 1.14 0.60 0.50 Total customer deposits 5.9 12.0 14.9 10.1
Tax rate 20.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 CASA deposits 7.7 19.2 15.4 14.1
Loan-to-deposit ratio 81.3 77.9 74.7 77.7 Savings Deposits 6.8 10.5 11.0 9.7
Yields on IEA 8.88 8.42 8.76 8.98 Time Deposits 1.7 7.5 23.3 6.8
Yields on IBL 2.39 2.02 2.04 2.06 Other deposits 40.2 21.5 9.3 9.7
Margins on IEA 6.77 6.70 6.95 6.94 Borrowings 11.7 20.0 16.7 9.9
Spreads on IEA 6.49 6.40 6.72 6.92 Marketable Securities Issued 12.7 -17.3 -52.0 -52.0
ROA 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.1 Total liabilities 5.7 11.7 11.6 14.5
ROE 21.8 20.4 19.1 17.7 Capital stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Balance sheet gearing Capital surplus 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Avg. adjusted equity (IDRbn) 82,675 101,170 122,634 142,988 Accum. translation adjustments NM -295.2 20.0 5.0
Average total assets (IDRbn) 573,764 635,556 719,399 818,215 Retained earnings 20.3 19.3 18.8 17.1
Financial leverage (x) 6.9 6.3 5.9 5.7 Non-controlling interest 7.6 10.4 -15.0 34.5
Avg. equity / Avg. assets (%) 14.4 15.9 17.0 17.5 Total shareholders' equity 18.4 25.8 17.6 15.7
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 4

November 2, 2017 Bank Central Asia

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not
own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings

Buy Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell Relative performance of -10%
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term
material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of
future earnings.
The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic
conditions.

Analyst Certification
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible
for this report. PT. Mirae Asset Seukritas Indonesia (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning
securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject
companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the
past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly
or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive
compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities,
investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to
know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers
This report is published by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been
independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy,
completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Indonesian language. In case of an
English translation of a report prepared in the Indonesian language, the original Indonesian language report may have been made available to investors in
advance of this report.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its
common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject
Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof.
This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in
any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client
of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or
needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained
herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income
from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future
returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do
not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof.
Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report.
The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment
decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers,
employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a
purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or
agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide
investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations.
No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written
consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 5

November 2, 2017 Bank Central Asia

Distribution
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Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and other
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contents.
United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional
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securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc., which accepts responsibility for the contents of this report
in the U.S. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not
be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements.
Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong Kong
Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for
distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws
of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person.
All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Mirae Asset
Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Mirae
Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

Mirae Asset Daewoo International Network

Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (Seoul) Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd. Mirae Asset Securities (UK) Ltd.
Global Equity Sales Team Suites 1109-1114, 11th Floor 41st Floor, Tower 42
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research 6