July 2014

PROJECTING ETHIOPIAN
DEMOGRAPHICS FROM
2012–2050 USING THE
SPECTRUM SUITE OF MODELS

Brief
Alemayhu Bekele and Yihunie Lakew
Ethiopian Public Health Association

Summary
Introduction Population Survey. Other projection parameters were
taken from the United Nations Population Division’s
Until the 1980s, Ethiopia had no mechanism to
World Population Prospects (2012 revision) medium
accurately estimate its population size. The first national
variant scenario.
census was conducted in 1984 and estimated the total
population to be 42.6 million. Subsequent censuses Results
estimated 53.5 million (1994) and 73.5 million (2007),
while the 2012 Inter-Censual Population Survey The total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 4.6 in 2012
estimated 83.7 million. This analysis, conducted by to 3.1 in 2032 and then to 1.8 in 2050. The projected
the Ethiopian Public Health Association (EPHA) Ethiopian population steadily increased from 83.7
and the USAID-funded Health Policy Project (HPP), million in 2012 to 133.5 million in 2032 and 171.8
aims to generate useful demographic information for million in 2050, with a doubling time of 83 years in
policymakers and development experts in Ethiopia for 2050. The rate of natural increase decreased from 1.9
planning and program design. percent in 2012 to 0.8 percent in 2050. The crude birth
and death rates in 2012 were 34.6 and 9.7 per 1,000
Methods people, and were projected to decline to 14.7 and 6.4
per 1,000 in 2050. The 0–14 age group declined after
The Demographic Projection (DemProj) module of the
2030, while the working-age population (ages 15–64)
Spectrum suite of models was used to project the size of
and older age groups (ages 65+) continued to increase.
the Ethiopian population from 2012 to 2050. The base
Ethiopia’s window for capturing a possible demographic
year population was taken from the 2012 Inter-Censual
dividend was projected to peak around 2040.

H E A LT H
POLICY
P R O J E C T
July 2014

Conclusions and Recommendations program scenarios in health and development. The

Demographic Projection module (DemProj) is the
Access to reproductive health and family planning “engine” of Spectrum; given a base-year population
services should be accelerated to create the opportunity and other demographic inputs, DemProj projects the
for a demographic dividend in Ethiopia. Investments population, broken down by age and sex, using standard
in health, education, and other development sectors are demographic methods. The model also provides
needed to capture the dividend. information about fertility and mortality by age and
sex. It is designed to aid sector-based programming and
Introduction demonstrate the magnitude of population challenges
Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa, over time, explore policy and resource options, and set
after Nigeria. Until the 1980s, the country had no priorities.
mechanism to accurately estimate its population size. The base-year population data were taken from the
2012 ICPS. The age-sex population structure of the
Average Annual country was divided into five-year age groups and one
Estimated Total
Census Year Growth Rate Since
Population (millions)
Last Survey
age group for 80 and above. Other demographic inputs
for the 2012–2050 projection period were taken from
1984 Census 42.6 3%
the medium variant projections of the 2012 World
1994 Census 53.5 2.9% Population Prospects, a set of international demographic
2007 Census 73.8 2.6% projections produced by the United Nations Population
2012 ICPS 83.7 2.6%
Division. The study team applied a total fertility rate
(TFR) of 4.6 children per woman in the base year 2012,
which was projected to decrease to 1.8 in 2050. A life
The first national census, conducted in 1984, estimated expectancy (LE) at birth of 59.5 years was used for
the total population to be 42.6 million. The second both sexes in 2012 and projected to increase to 71.6 in
national census in 1994 found that over 10 years the 2050. The results of this analysis were determined most
population had increased by more than 25 percent directly by base-year population, TFR, and LE at birth.
to 53.5 million, corresponding to an average annual
growth rate of 2.6 percent. The most recent census was
conducted in 2007 and estimated a population of 73.5 Results
million, corresponding to an average annual growth Population Size and Demographic
rate of 2.9 percent. In 2012, an Inter-Censual Population
Survey (ICPS) estimated the population at 83.7 million, Dividend
corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 2.6 Figure 1 and Table 1 show the population projection
percent. under the assumed fertility and mortality declines
over the specified period. The total population size
In response to Ethiopia’s demographic and health increased to 133.5 million in 2032 and then to 171.8
situation, which is characterized by high maternal and million in 2050. Over the same period, the percentage
child mortality, high fertility, and rapid population of the population that is of working age (ages 15–64)
growth, the country adopted the National Population increased from 56 percent to 68 percent, with a
Policy in 1993. This analysis was conducted to provide corresponding decrease in the young and old age groups.
policymakers and development experts in the country The dependency ratio, or the ratio of young (ages 14
with accurate demographic projections for planning and below) and old (ages 65+) to the working-age
purposes and implementation of population-related population, decreased from 77.4 percent in 2012 to 63.4
socioeconomic interventions. percent in 2032 and 47 percent by 2050. This change
in the population’s age structure opens up a window
Methods and Assumptions of opportunity for Ethiopia to capture a demographic
The Spectrum suite of models answers questions dividend, if favorable social and economic policies and
about the cost and impact of various policy and conditions exist.

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 Projecting Ethiopian Demographics from 2012–2050 Using the Spectrum Suite of Models

Table 1. Population and Health Summary Indicators in 2012, 2032, and 2050

Year
Demographic Indicators
2012 2032 2050

Population (millions) 83.7 133.5 171.8

Working-age population (millions; % of total population) 48.3 (56%) 81.7 (61%) 117 (68%)
Dependent population (millions; % of total population) 37.4 (44%) 51.8 (39%) 54.8 (32%)
Population doubling time 28 37 83
Median age 19 23 29
Total fertility rate 4.6 3.1 1.8
Life expectancy at birth 59.5 67.9 71.5
Infant mortality rate 67.7 37.8 26.7
Under-5 mortality rate 105.7 53 34.8
Crude birth rate 34.6 24.9 14.7
Crude death rate 9.7 6 6.4

Figure 1. Total Population by Age Groups, 2012–2050 time. The rate of natural increase, defined as the
difference between the crude birth and crude death
200
rates, also decreased from 2.5 in 2012 to 0.8 in 2050.
180
Under this scenario, the TFR would reach a replacement
160
level of 2.1 in 2046.
140

120

100 Figure 2. Key Demographic Parameters, 2012–2050

Millions

80
90 5
60
80 4.5
40
4
70
20
3.5
0 60
3
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050

50
Years

2.5
Year 40 Rate
2
30
1.5
Total 0–14 15–64 65+ 20
Population 1

10 0.5

0 0
Other Population-Related Attributes
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050

Figure 2 shows the TFR decline and life expectancy Year

increase that characterized this population projection.
As fertility declined, the age structure of the population
Life Expectancy Population Median Age Total Fertility Rate of Natural
shifted toward older age groups, raising the median age Doubling Time Rate Increase

and dramatically increasing the population doubling

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July 2014

Fertility and Mortality and programs at the national and subnational levels.
Ethiopia’s population is increasing rapidly, but the
The Coale-Demeny North model life table was used to growth rate is expected to slow in future decades, with
compute the infant mortality rate, which was 67.7 per continued investment in family planning and maternal
1,000 live births in 2012. The under-5 mortality rate was and reproductive healthcare. The broad base of Ethiopia’s
105.7 per 1,000 live births in 2012. The crude birth and population pyramid indicates a large proportion of
death rates in 2012 were 34.6 and 9.7 per 1,000 people young people; 41.5 percent of the total population was
(total population), respectively. In 2050, the infant and age 14 or younger in 2012. Ethiopia’s young population
child mortality rates were projected to reach 26.7 and is also reflected in the low median age and high
34.8 per 1,000 live births, respectively. Similarly, the dependency ratio.
crude birth and death rates also declined to 14.7 and 6.4
per 1,000 people, respectively (Figure 3 and Table 1).1 The continued growth of Ethiopia’s population is certain
under any plausible scenario, although the rate of growth
might decrease. With sound public health, education,
Figure 3. Trends in Fertility and governance, infrastructure, and other beneficial policies
Mortality, Ethiopia, 2012–2050 and conditions, the decline in fertility and mortality—or
120 demographic transition—projected here could lead to
a demographic dividend for Ethiopia’s economy (UN
100 Population Division, 2012).
80
Limitations
Rate

60
1. The analysis reveals what might happen if fertility
and mortality were to decline. Such dramatic
40
changes are not automatic, but are rooted in policy
20
and health system design, as well as economic
changes.
0
2. The infant and under-5 mortality rates used by
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050

DemProj may overestimate true mortality in those

Year
age groups; however, this is not expected to change
the overall conclusions of the study.
Infant Under-5 Crude Crude
Mortality Rate Mortality Rate Birth Rate Death Rate
3. There is a shortage of data on migration. As a result,
no projection was made for migration rates and
related dynamics in the country.
Population Structure of Ethiopia
The population pyramids in Figure 4 show the Recommendations
population’s age structure in base year 2012, in 2032, and
The government, in collaboration with partners and the
in 2050. The fertility decline is visible in the decreasing
community, should undertake the following measures to
size of the pyramid base over time, as more of the
accelerate positive indicators and alleviate negative ones:
population is concentrated in the working-age groups
(green). This concentration is the necessary (but not ƒƒ Ensure equity in and accessibility to family
sufficient) first condition for the demographic dividend. planning services at the national and subnational
levels to accelerate the reduction of TFR and its
Discussion consequences.
Assessing and projecting population dynamics and ƒƒ Promote and provide basic and primary healthcare
attributes are important for the design of sound public interventions to be accessed by the general
health, socio-demographic, and economic policies community, with special focus on maternal and

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 Projecting Ethiopian Demographics from 2012–2050 Using the Spectrum Suite of Models

Figure 4. Population Pyramid, Ethiopia 2012, 2032, and 2050

child health to avert preventable maternal, child, and National Population Policy of Ethiopia. 1993. Addis Ababa:
infant deaths. Office of the Prime Minister.
ƒƒ Create job opportunities for working-age United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
groups; expand access to and improve the Population Division. 2012. Changing Levels and Trends in
quality of education, health, and other social Mortality: The Role of Patterns of Death by Cause. United
services. Consider how Ethiopia might capture a Nations publication ST/ESA/SER.A/318. New York: United
demographic dividend in the future. Nations.

References Endnote
Central Statistical Agency (CSA). 1984. 1984 National 1. The DemProj projections used an infant mortality rate of
Population and Housing Census of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa: 71.5 per 1,000 live births, taken from the Coale-Demeny
CSA. North model life table. However, the infant mortality rate
measured in the 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health
Central Statistical Agency (CSA). 1994. 1994 Census, Vol. 1 Survey (EDHS) was lower, just 59 deaths per 1,000 live
and 2. Addis Ababa: CSA. births. Similarly, the under-5 mortality rate used here is
also slightly higher than that measured by the the 2011
Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys, data from 2000 EDHS. Neither discrepancy had a significant effect on
and 2011 accessed from www.statcompiler.com. Ethiopia the overall results of this population projection, beyond
Central Statistical Agency and ICF International. 2012. slightly overestimating mortality in the younger age
Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2011. Calverton, groups. These discrepancies in mortality at young ages
MD: ICF International. were necessary to get an accurate fit to the population’s
mortality over all age groups.
Gribble, James N. and Jason Bremner. 2012. “Achieving a
Demographic Dividend,” Population Bulletin 67(2).

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 Contact Us Contact Us
Health Policy Project Ethiopian Public Health Association (EPHA)
One Thomas Circle NW, Suite 200 Tel: +251 114 166041
Washington, DC 20005 +251 114 166083
www.healthpolicyproject.com +251 114 166088
[email protected] P.O. Box 7117
[email protected]
www.etpha.org

The Health Policy Project is a five-year cooperative agreement funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development under Agreement No. AID-OAA-A-10-00067,
beginning September 30, 2010. It is implemented by Futures Group, in collaboration with Plan International USA, Futures Institute, Partners in Population and
Development, Africa Regional Office (PPD ARO), Population Reference Bureau (PRB), RTI International, and the White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA).
The information provided in this document is not official U.S. Government information and does not necessarily represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for
International Development.