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Delphi Forecasts PG 117: Phase 1

The document describes the Delphi forecasting technique, which involves anonymously surveying a panel of experts over multiple rounds to develop a consensus forecast. It outlines a 4-phase process: 1) experts independently list potential developments, 2) experts assess probabilities and timelines, 3) experts reassess after seeing aggregated responses, 4) final reassessment. The goal is to remove social pressures and arrive at a consensus forecast, though this may not always be achieved. Potential issues include time delays, attrition of panel members, and forecasts being influenced by contemporary ideas and overly optimistic timelines.

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57 views2 pages

Delphi Forecasts PG 117: Phase 1

The document describes the Delphi forecasting technique, which involves anonymously surveying a panel of experts over multiple rounds to develop a consensus forecast. It outlines a 4-phase process: 1) experts independently list potential developments, 2) experts assess probabilities and timelines, 3) experts reassess after seeing aggregated responses, 4) final reassessment. The goal is to remove social pressures and arrive at a consensus forecast, though this may not always be achieved. Potential issues include time delays, attrition of panel members, and forecasts being influenced by contemporary ideas and overly optimistic timelines.

Uploaded by

kikaidan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Delphi forecasts pg 117

One technique that has been developed to overcome the problem with
group forecasts is the Delphi forecast. A Delphi forecast purposely keeps
the panel of experts involved physically apart. In many studies they will
remain unknown to each other. Communication is undertaken by letter or
e-mail directly to each individual from the Delphi study co-ordinator. This
approach is taken in order to remove the social pressures and other undesirable
aspects of group interaction. If a study examining what technological
breakthroughs are desirable and achievable in the next 20 years
was commissioned the following procedures would be executed. Once

a panel of experts has been formed by the co-ordinator the Delphi study
will have at least four phases:
Phase 1
Aletter is sent to each of the experts asking them to state the scientific breakthrough
and technological developments that they feel are firstly beneficial
and secondly could be attainable in the next 25 years. Each expert will send
his or her independent judgement back to the co-ordinator. From these lists
the co-ordinator will create a comprehensive list or choose those items of
particular concern to the organisation undertaking the study.
Phase 2
In Phase 2 each expert is sent the list and asked to judge for each item the
probability of when each potential development will take place. The
timescale would normally be broken down into 5-year bands.
Therefore one expert may reply to a question as follows:

A second expert’s judgement however may be different:

The co-ordinator will then collate all the replies and draw up charts displaying
the distribution of experts’ responses for each potential development.

Phase 3
The co-ordinator will then write to each panel member enclosing the
charts that have been developed as a result of Phase 2. These results will
however be broken down into two areas. One set of results will have a
very small spread of responses and therefore a near consensus. The other
set will have a wide spread of responses and therefore be clearly nonconsensus
items. On each question the expert can see how far they are
away from the average. They are then asked to reassess their responses.
Experts that are at an extreme position from the mean can be asked to give
a rationale for their prediction if they continue to maintain their position.
Phase 4
This is a repeat of Phase 3 except the experts will now consider revised
charts that have been developed as a result of the reconsideration that individuals have undertaken in the
previous round. Panel members can
adjust their judgements in the light of the previous round in particular
they may change their view once they have seen the reasoning given by
the experts who took an extreme position.
Delphi forecasts aim to arrive at a consensus position and can go
beyond a fourth phase in order to arrive at this position. Once a consensus
has been achieved an organisation can then begin to weigh up the impact
the forecasted events will have on their operations.
There are several problems with this forecasting technique:
● The process consumes a lot of time, as there can be considerable delays
waiting to receive a full set of replies every round.
● The time delays cause organisational problems as panel members
begin to drop out or become less motivated.
● A major problem is that Delphi forecasts appear to be heavily influenced
by the ideas in fashion at the time of the survey.
● The other significant shortcoming with the technique is that experts on
these studies have invariably been over optimistic on the timescales
involved in developments coming to fruition.
● There are also issues about the membership of the panel in the first
place. How decisions on the panel, and who involved in making those
deliberations, can be subject to all the problems outlined in the jury
method discussed earlier.
The advantages of the Delphi method should not be dismissed, however
the technique does attempt to remove some of the problems related to
group decisions making. The Delphi method also is a move away from
striving to form a single view of the future. Although the aim is to narrow
down the responses to as much of a consensus as possible this may not be
achieved. When the process does not reach a clear consensus it can still be
useful as it has identified the spread of opinion among experts in the field.
A planning team therefore can consider a series of potential outcomes

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