The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity

The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity
The Political Economy

of Monetary Solidarity
Understanding the Euro Experiment
Waltraud Schelkle
1
3
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Acknowledgments
One of the greatest pleasures of writing a book is to experience how many

colleagues, students, and friends are out there, generously spending time and
effort on what will pass as somebody elses work. I am deeply grateful to them all.
None has been a more dedicated friend than Deborah Mabbett (Birkbeck)
who read the book script twice and worked tirelessly to improve its language
and argument. Zbigniew Truchlewski (Central European University, Budapest)
planted the idea of this book in my mind several years ago and then organized
a workshop at Central European University at which the entire script was
discussed; I am immensely grateful for extensive written comments by Achim
Kemmerling, Akos Mate, Antonio Leite, Alfredo Hernandez Sanchez, Imre
Szabo, and above all Zbig himself. Peter Hall (Harvard) has several times
given me his extremely insightful comments, notwithstanding the fact that
so many people make demands on his time. Alison Johnston (Oregon State)
engaged, as usual, in an intense and cheerful discussion of our different crisis
interpretations. Chlo Touzet (Oxford) wrote perceptive comments on two
chapters; so did Christa van Wijnbergen (Utrecht), as always constructive
and most helpful. Even before it had started, Anke Hassel (Hertie School of
Governance) gave me encouraging comments on my book project.
Colleagues and friends spent considerable time giving me constructive
feedback: Suzanne Berger (MIT), Richard Bronk (LSE), Sebastian Dullien
(Berlin), Peter Gourevitch (Brown), Randall Henning (American University),
Abby Innes (LSE), Erik Jones (Johns Hopkins), Mareike Kleine (LSE), Ellen
Meade (Federal Reserve Bank), David Moss (Harvard), Constanzo Ranci
(Milan), Vivien Schmidt (Boston), and Stefanie Walter (Zrich). I also beneted
from questions and comments by seminar participants at Central European
University Budapest, at the European Central Bank (ECB), Center for European
Studies at Harvard, the Hertie School of Governance, the University of Uppsala,
the University of Zrich, and, last but not least, at my home institution, the
European Institute at London School of Economics. Its directors, the late
Maurice Fraser, Sara Hobolt, and Kevin Featherstone, have been as supportive
as one can wish for.
Staff at the ECB were very helpful in answering questions about TARGET
(Ulrich Bindseil, Tobias Linzert, and Daniela Russo); so was the chief economist
Acknowledgments
of the Bundesbank, Jens Ulbrich. Philippine Cour-Thimann, Johannes Lindner,

and Bernhard Winkler were most stimulating interlocutors at the ECB.
Two anonymous referees provided straightforward and constructive com-
ments which were gratefully received. Dominic Byatt from Oxford University
Press was a prompt and encouraging editor in every exchange I had with him;
the OUP editorial team was extremely efcient and pleasant to work with.
Sean Deel (LSE) did an excellent job in putting together the Index.
Last but not least, I want to thank the Leverhulme Trust for funding a
research fellowship in 201415 (RF-2014-710/7) that supported my sabbatical
at the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies at Harvard. It provided a
most conducive research environment, pleasantly interrupted by the Visiting
Scholars seminars convened by Arthur Goldhammer and the Political
Economy faculty seminar led by Jeff Frieden at the Government department.
Joaquin Almunia (Visiting Fellow Harvard and LSE, former Commissioner)
and Hans-Helmut Kotz (Harvard, former Bundesbank) readily gave me the
opportunity to ask them many questions.
My family went through a very difcult time while I was at Harvard and
I will be forever grateful to my parents and my sister, in particular, that they
wanted me to stay and continue my research rather than be with them.
vi
Contents
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xiii
List of Abbreviations xv
1. Introduction: Understanding the Euro Experiment 1

1.1 The Political-Economic Paradox of Diversity 1
1.1.1 Diversity as Opportunity and as Challenge 4
1.1.2 The Puzzle of Monetary Solidarity 7
1.1.3 Overcoming Collective Action Problems 9
1.2 The Economic Underpinning of Monetary Solidarity 12
1.2.1 Risks to Be Shared in Monetary Integration 13
1.2.2 Risk-Sharing Mechanisms 16
1.2.3 Monetary Solidarity as the Outcome of Institutional
Evolution 17
1.2.4 The Non-Solution of Mainstream Economic Theory 19
1.3 Overview 22
Part I. Building Blocks

2. The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity 31
2.1 The Puzzle of Rational Cooperation 32
2.2 The By-Product Theory of Collective Action 37
2.2.1 Origins in the Logic of Collective Action 39
2.2.2 Governing a Commons 42
2.3 Political Market Failures 46
2.3.1 Externalities 47
2.3.2 Asymmetric Information 50
2.3.3 Lack of Commitment 52
2.3.4 Misperception 54
2.4 Forms of Risk Sharing 56
3. Economic Risk Sharing between States 61

3.1 The Idea of Risk Diversication 62
Contents
3.2 Sharing the Risk of Output Shocks between States 65

3.2.1 What Are the Main Channels of Risk Sharing
between States? 66
3.2.2 How Much Do Various Channels Contribute to
Risk Sharing? 71
3.2.3 Does Monetary Integration Lead to More Financial
Risk Sharing? 74
3.2.4 What Have We Learnt? 75
3.3 From Channels to Interfaces of Risk Sharing 79
3.3.1 Negative Feedback Loops 81
3.3.2 Fiscal Backstops 82
3.3.3 Monetary-Financial Transmission 83
3.3.4 Variable Fiscal Multipliers 84
3.4 The Limitations of Financial Risk Sharing 84
Appendix 87
Part II. Evolving Monetary Unions of Limited Risk Sharing

4. A Short History of Risk Sharing in the US Monetary Union 91
4.1 The Relationship between Monetary and Political Integration 92
4.2 The Emerging Interfaces of Money, Banking, and Federal
Public Finances 95
4.2.1 Alexander Hamiltons Plan for Central Risk Pooling 96
4.2.2 Experimenting with Federalism and Free Banking 99
4.2.3 Panicking towards the New Deal 102
4.2.4 The Fiscal Underpinning of the Great Society 108
4.2.5 Deregulation and the Return of Financial Instability 110
4.3 The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity in the
US Dollar Area 112
4.3.1 The Interface of Public Finances and Banking 114
4.3.2 The Interface of Banking and Money 116
4.3.3 The Interface of Money and Public Finances 119
4.3.4 Comparative Political Economy 121
5. The System of Limited Risk Sharing in the Euro Area 125

5.1 Currency Unication against the Odds 125
5.1.1 The Trauma of the 19923 Crisis 126
5.1.2 Joining the Risk Pool of a Hard-Currency Area 129
5.2 The Interfaces of Money, Banking, and State Budgets 135
5.2.1 The Set-Up of the Euro Area System 135
5.2.2 Elements of Risk Sharing before 2008 139
5.2.3 Exemptions from Monetary Solidarity 150
viii
Contents
5.3 The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity in

the Euro Area 153
6. The Euro Area Crisis as a Stress Test for Monetary Solidarity 158
6.1 The Puzzling Crisis and Its Costly Management 159
6.1.1 Multiple Crises in One 159
6.1.2 Unprecedented Assistance in an Unprecedented Crisis 166
6.2 Explaining the Crisis of the Euro Area 174
6.2.1 Revenge of the Optimum Currency Area? 174
6.2.2 Incompatible Growth Regimes? 179
6.2.3 Incompleteness and Reversal of Risk Sharing? 185
6.3 Monetary Solidarity at Crossroads 196
Appendix: Drivers of Debt Accumulation before and after
Troika Programs 197
7. Monetary Solidarity by Default and by Design 199

7.1 Changing Risk-Return Proles through Integration 200
7.2 Reforms at the Interfaces of Risk Sharing in Response
to Crisis 205
7.2.1 Early Interventions to Contain Fiscal Risk Sharing 206
7.2.2 Fiscal Capacity Building and Lending of Last Resort
to Sovereigns 210
7.2.3 Banking Union and an Expanded ECB Mandate 217
7.3 Reforming the Governance of the Commons 223
Part III. Solidarity in Action

8. Social Solidarity through Labor Market Integration 229
8.1 Labor Mobility in a World of Welfare 230
8.2 The Social Right to Internal Migration in Two
Monetary Unions 234
8.2.1 Territorial Access and Welfare Entitlements 235
8.2.2 Dualism in Labor Markets and Risk Sharing 241
8.3 Interstate Risk Sharing through Free Movement in
a Monetary Union 251
8.3.1 Sharing the Risk of Economic Fluctuations? 252
8.3.2 Sharing the Risk of Income Divergence? 256
8.4 Free Movement and the Political Economy of Labor
Market Integration 261
9. Monetary Solidarity in Financial Integration 266

9.1 The Political Challenge of a Payments System 268
9.2 Payments Systems of Two Monetary Unions 276
ix
Contents
9.2.1 Payments Systems in Normal Times 276

9.2.2 Payments Systems in Extraordinary Times 279
9.3 The Beneciaries of TARGET Insurance 284
9.3.1 Insurance against Sudden Stops of Trade Finance? 286
9.3.2 Insurance but also a Conduit for Capital Flight? 289
9.3.3 Hedging against the Break-Up of the Euro Area? 295
9.4 TARGET and the Political Economy of Insurance 297
10. The Experiment of the Euro 303

10.1 Diversity as Economic Opportunity and Political
Challenge 305
10.2 Policy Implications 311
10.2.1 Solidarity and Integration 314
10.2.2 Fiscal Risk Sharing through Reinsurance 316
10.3 European Political Economy 322
10.3.1 Political Legitimation of Monetary Solidarity 323
10.3.2 Reexive Policy Advice 327
Bibliography 331
Index 367
x
List of Figures
3.1. The main channels of risk sharing between states in the economic
literature 69
3.2. Range of empirical estimates for three risk-sharing channels 72
5.1. Average long-term real interest rates 19842007 132
5.2. Volatility of long-term real interest rates 19842007 133
5.3. Average ination rates 19842007, GDP deator 134
5.4. Convergence between EA-11 member states, 19842007 134
6.1. Annual real effective exchange rate vis--vis forty-two countries 176
6.2. GDP at current prices per head of population, relative to EU-15 = 100,
19992015 176
6.3. Current-account balances of the South and the North, 19802015 180
6.4. Correlation between Southern and Northern balances, 198098 versus
19982015 181
6.5. Location of program countries in the feedback loop between private
and public nances 194
7.1. EA-11 risk-return proles of output growth, 197185 and 19922007 202
7.2. Changes in risk-return proles in output 19922007 compared
to 197185 (in %) 202
7.3. EA-11 risk-return proles of consumption growth, 197185 and 19922007 204
7.4. Changes in risk-return proles in consumption 19922007 compared
to 197185 (in %) 204
7.5. Share of EA member states in the paid-up capital of the ECB,
as of January 1, 2015 211
8.1. Immigration exceeding one year by category of entry or status
change, 2012 231
8.2. In-work poverty risk of households with low-educated household
head(s), 2011 242
8.3. Overqualication rates among those with tertiary education in
employment, 1564-year-olds 243
8.4. Correlation of regional income levels and growth rates, 20007 259
List of Figures
8.5. Correlation between migration rates and regional income growth

and level, 20007 260
9.1. TARGET claims and liabilities of the EA-12 member states, 200214,
in millions 270
9.2. Annual current-account balances 200213, in millions 271
9.3. Schematic representation of cross-border payments 277
9.4. ISA claims and liabilities of the twelve US districts, in US$ millions 280
9.5. TARGET claims and liabilities of the EA-12 member states (ISA method),
in millions 282
9.6. Current-account balances and TARGET balances for EA-12, 200510,
in millions (annual data) 286
9.7. Trade balances and change in TARGET balances, 200612 288
9.8. Current-account balances and TARGET balances for EA-12, 200813,
in millions (annual data) 290
9.9. Financial assets held by rest of the EA in Ireland and Southern Europe,
in millions 292
9.10. Changes in German bank exposure to GIIPS and TARGET claims
on GIIPS, in millions 293
9.11. Exposure of UK banks on an ultimate risk basis (in millions) 296
9.12. Share of UK bank exposure to public sectors (in percentages),
2010-Q4 to 2014-Q1 296
xii
List of Tables
2.1. Overview of economic and political market failures 48

2.2. Congurations of interstate risk sharing 58
3.1. Channels and issues arising at interfaces of risk sharing 80
3.1A. Estimates of cross-border channels of consumption risk sharing 87
4.1. Evolving channels and interfaces of federal risk sharing in the US 115
5.1. Channels and interfaces of risk sharing in the original EA 137
6.1. Assistance programs for EA and non-EA countries in the EU, 200815 169
6.2. External trade balance and debt position, 20068, in percentage of GDP 183
6.3. Cumulative change in public debt over two years before and after
program start (in t) 191
6.1A. Greece, debt sustainability analysis (actual gures) 197
6.2A. Ireland, debt sustainability analysis (actual gures) 198
6.3A. Portugal, debt sustainability analysis (actual gures) 198
6.4A. Cyprus, debt sustainability analysis (actual gures) 198
7.1. Evolving channels and interfaces of risk sharing in the EA 207
8.1. Internal migration and immigration as social rights in the EU/EA-10
and the US 235
8.2. Variation in monthly cash benets for interstate free movement
migrants, 201214 245
8.3. Summary of rules for risk sharing between internal economic
migrants and host states 251
8.4. Characteristics of recent free movement migrants compared
with natives of the origin region (1564 years), 2011 and 2012 254
List of Abbreviations
CEE Central and Eastern Europe

EA Euro Area
ECB European Central Bank
EFSF European Financial Stability Facility
EITC Earned Income Tax Credit
ELA Emergency Liquidity Assistance
EMU Economic and Monetary Union
ERM Exchange Rate Mechanism
ESCB European System of Central Banks
ESM European Stability Mechanism
EU European Union
FDIC Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
FOMC Federal Reserve Open Market Committee
GDP gross domestic product
IMF International Monetary Fund
LTRO Long-Term Renancing Operations
OCA Optimal Currency Area
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OMT Outright Monetary Transactions
REER Real Effective Exchange Rate
RFC Reconstruction Finance Corporation
S&L Savings and Loans
SGP Stability and Growth Pact
SMP Securities Market Programme
SNAP Supplementary Nutritional Assistance Program
SRM Single Resolution Mechanism
SSM Single Supervisory Mechanism
TANF Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
TFEU Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union
1
Introduction
Understanding the Euro Experiment
Monetary solidarity is not what many readers would spontaneously associate

with the euro experiment. Deliberate or at least consciously tolerated risk
sharing between members of a currency unionwhich is how monetary
solidarity is dened hereis indeed an inconspicuous feature of the euro
area (EA). It exists, yet the potential for mutually benecial cooperation in
this regard is not exploited. The rst section deals with the puzzle of political
economy that is driving the analysis in this book while the second section
gives a general introduction to the economics that underpins this study. The
chapter concludes with an overview of the book.
1.1 The Political-Economic Paradox of Diversity
Creating the European monetary union between an ever expanding number

of diverse and unequal nation states is arguably one of the biggest social
experiments in history (Stiglitz 2016: xiv). This study will show that if this
experiment were to fail, it may not be because of diversity and inequality of its
membersas is often arguedbut because of the limited capacity to share and
diversify risks. A diverse union brings with it large potential gains from risk
diversication, but cooperation is needed to realize these gains. Collective
action problems beset all policy cooperation, but they become more intract-
able as the parties become more heterogeneous (Snidal 1995: 627; Imbs and
Mauro 2007: 2630). Mistrust, misperception, and lack of information stand
in the way of risk pooling. Different preferences and power asymmetries may
also lead to conict in setting the priorities for collective action. Some may
want to internalize all externalities in a central budget; others will fear the
excessive risk taking that comprehensive insurance may incentivize. All this
leads to the paradox that the more diverse potential members are, the larger
the potential economic gains from monetary union, yet the more difcult it
may be to realize these gains politically.
This paradox of diversity is used here as a lens for understanding the EA, but
it is relevant beyond Europe. Member states of the EA managed to form a
monetary union, but then limited risk sharing very tightly. Observers noted
early on that a minimum of scal risk sharing may be required to make a
currency union stable enough to be mutually benecial, and this is often seen
as the major lesson of the nancial crisis (Goodhart and Smith 1993; De
Grauwe and Moesen 2009). The paradox of diversity can also explain why it
took the United States (US) more than 150 years and innumerable nancial
crises before a viable monetary-scal constitution became acceptable to the
members of the federation. That history was not an exercise in optimization
but a trial-and-error process of nding economically stabilizing and politically
acceptable ways of governing a single currency. Although not pursued here,
the paradox also sheds light on why we see so little currency unication
outside Europe. This is despite the fact that the euro experiment is closely
observed in parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America where policymakers and
citizens see exchange rate volatility and balance-of-payments imbalances as a
massive problem (Fritz and Metzger 2006; Kawai and Lombardi 2014).
Monetary solidarity is required to attenuate the tensions inherent in this
paradox. Using a common currency or stabilizing exchange rates brings about
some risk sharing, but monetary solidarity means more than this. It refers to
institutions such as the cross-border payments system that comes with a
single currency and replaces the need for foreign exchange reserves in a
xed exchange rate system. Its immediate purpose is to save transaction
costs, but, in the nancial crisis, it turned into effective insurance of trade
against a sudden stop of capital ows. However, monetary solidarity is rarely
the declared intention of monetary system design; rather, it is the outcome of
institutional evolution. US history shows that the insurance function of the
cross-border payments system can be called into question (Chapter 9). Other
risk-sharing mechanisms that have developed in the EA, such as emergency
funds and extraordinary monetary policies, have been openly contested. More
often tolerated than deliberately created, the risk-sharing properties and soli-
daristic features of core EA institutions have to be demonstrated. This is the
main task this book has set itself.
Most accounts see diversity and inequality among its members as the EAs
most fundamental problem, especially after 2010. An early critic, the Harvard
economist Martin Feldstein (2012), speaks for many when he states: The euro
should now be recognized as an experiment that failed. This failure . . . was not
an accident or the result of bureaucratic mismanagement but rather the
inevitable consequence of imposing a single currency on a very heterogeneous
2
Introduction: Understanding the Euro Experiment
group of countries. Eminent scholars in economics, comparative political

economy, and political science agreed on this point. They have identied
most problematic forms of heterogeneity from the vantage point of their
different disciplines. Economics highlights susceptibility to country-specic
shocks for which exchange rate adjustments are needed (Krugman 2013: 444).
Political economy proposes that countries have different growth models that
cannot live with the same monetary policy (Hall 2014a; Scharpf 2011). Polit-
ical scientists argue that democracies are based on an enshrined political
consensus that is incompatible with prioritizing a stable currency (Jones
2013; Matthijs and Blyth 2015). All these scholars defend national diversity
against what they perceive as the straitjacket of a single currency.
These verdicts see diversity as a problem for a monetary union. It would
make the EA a deeply awed project. Does this mean that the architects of
monetary union were not aware of how diverse and unequal the applicants for
union membership were? The Delors report that laid the groundwork for the
European monetary union could not be clearer on this point:
Even after attaining economic and monetary union, the Community would con-
tinue to consist of individual nations with differing economic, social, cultural and
political characteristics. The existence and preservation of this plurality would
require a degree of autonomy in economic decision-making to remain with
individual member countries and a balance to be struck between national and
Community competences. For this reason it would not be possible simply to
follow the example of existing federal States; it would be necessary to develop an
innovative and unique approach. (Committee 1989: para. 17)
Critical verdicts therefore rest on claims about how a mistaken economic

venture has been undertaken by elites entranced with the political project
of an ever closer union, or engaged in crude power play, or laboring under
outright delusion. All of these claims can be traced in Feldsteins essay
(2012).
European policymakers of quite varied ideological leanings and with differ-
ent attitudes towards European integration undertook monetary integration
conscious, not ignorant, of the differences between their countries.1 Rather
skeptical central bankers, not economically illiterate euro-federalists, were put
in the driving seat for devising a strategy towards currency unication
(Moravcsik 1998: 4315; Dyson and Featherstone 1999: 34250, 583). While
Commission President Delors was a committed Europhile, he understood that
he had to give a prominent role to central bankers with an institutional
1
The evidence for this is overwhelming, as the magisterial studies by Moravcsik (1998) and
Dyson and Featherstone (1999) show; see also Jones (2002: 1, 946) and Verdun (2000: 16183)
among others.
3
interest in preserving their national currencies, so as to assure the skeptics that

the project would take diverseand adverseconcerns into account.
The single currency was the endpoint of a long drawn-out process of
experimenting with collective exchange rate stabilization and overcoming
balance of payments constraints, beginning with the European Payments
Union in the 1950s (Mourlon-Druol 2012: 22). These efforts gained much more
prominence when the dollar standard became destabilizing after the late 1960s.
They were then sustained by repeated banking and current-account crises in the
wake of nancial liberalization (Babeck et al. 2012), which made national
administrations ready for ever closer forms of exchange rate-based policy coord-
ination. The Delors report was explicit about this background (Committee
1989: paras 16). Eventually, exchange rate stabilization turned into the experi-
ment of creating a supranational central bank to issue at money, without
direct backing from any state scal authority (Goodhart 1998: 410; James
2012: 389).
This non-state money is an experiment in the specic sense that historically
combined functions of macroeconomic policy were separated and assigned to
different levels of governance: nominal income stabilization to the new
supranational monetary authority, allocative efciency, and growth to scal
authorities and wage bargainers. The prevention of systemic nancial panic
was assigned to national supervisors even though the Single Market Pro-
gramme promoted nancial integration. This separation of powers and
responsibilities is seen by many as evidence that the monetary union was
built on a German model, as Kathleen McNamara (1998: 56) forcefully
argued. The assignment was certainly not based on the theory of scal feder-
alism as the old and a new vintage would understand it (Oates 2005) since the
assignment gives scal stabilization hardly any role to play for the union as a
whole. It entailed the minimum amount of integration deemed sufcient to
get the benets of a single hard currency: low ination and low market interest
rates. More would follow if necessary and desirable, in line with the norm of
an ever closer union. These promised benets made a heterogeneous group
of countries (or governments and stakeholders inside these countries) sign up
to a monetary union. In so doing, they signed up to institutionalized policy
cooperation among formally equal, sovereign nation states, to a degree that is
unprecedented in history (Eichengreen 2008; Moravcsik 2012: 64).
1.1.1 Diversity as Opportunity and as Challenge

This study takes diversity and inequality among EA members not as a problem
but as a social fact. Diversity and inequality will not disappear in some long-
term convergence process, just as neither has disappeared in the US dollar area
or even in an old centralized state like the United Kingdom. The critics of the
4
EA experiment rely on metrics like income differentials to claim that Texas

and California or northern and southern England are more similar than
Germany and France, or that Mississippi and Rhode Island, Scotland and
Greater London are less unequal than Portugal and Estonia. But income
differentials may not be the only relevant measure of diversity, and even if it
were, it is not clear how small the difference has to be in order to be compat-
ible with membership in a currency union. The differences that the following
chapters will look at include sectoral specialization in agriculture and manu-
facturing (Chapter 4), high and low vulnerability to exchange rate instability
and current-account crises (Chapter 5), high and low growth potential
(Chapter 6), being an emigration or an immigration region (Chapter 8), and
being more or less dependent on capital inows (Chapter 9). In no case do
I nd that diversity on these metrics is an insurmountable obstacle to joining a
currency unionit depends on the extent of risk sharing that the parties can
politically agree to introduce.
This shifts the focus on problems and promises of interstate cooperation,
away from a sole focus on economic adjustment mechanisms like price and
wage exibility. The literature on this is large and varied. For the political
economy of monetary solidarity, Axelrod (1984), Keohane (1984), and the
contributions to Keohane and Ostrom (1995) are highly relevant. This litera-
ture has explored the conditions under which different interests, power asym-
metries, and varying time horizons facilitate or obstruct cooperation. The
international relations strand around Robert Keohane has its origins in the
realization that by the late 1970s, the post-war order had become less clearly
dominated by US hegemony. There was then a fear of the breakdown of
international cooperation between formally equal, sovereign nations: anarchy
might follow the breakdown of hierarchy. But rather than looking for new
power constellations, as the realist school around Stephen Krasner did, it
asked for how and when institutions would evolve that make sustained
cooperation in international relations possible (Drezner 2013: 282; Henning,
2017). In line with realists, these scholars explained the evolution or failure
of these institutions with rational self-interest. A monetary union among
formerly sovereign states can be seen as an international regime of interlinked
institutions dealing with their collective action problems. Elinor Ostrom
(1990) explored individuals drive and capacity for self-organization. Like
her colleagues from international relations, she challenged the need for a
supreme power to counter the destructive tendencies of rational egoists in
the realm of institutional economics.
One of the key questions is whether heterogeneity of members is useful for
cooperation or undermines it (Snidal 1995). Different interests can be com-
patible, just as they are in market exchange, and institutions that can link
different issues or lengthen the time horizon of members may be helpful to
5
overcome obstacles of heterogeneity (Martin 1995). This literature can explain

why the different interests of governments and their constituencies in low
ination and low interest rates were not satised by mere exchange rate
cooperation (Section 5.1). The desire for exchange rate stability was widely
shared within and across countries, albeit for divergent reasons: in some it
means getting rid of pressures for depreciation and in others for appreciation.
Yet the preferences for an accommodating or constraining monetary policy
may still cause insurmountable frictions and prevent currency unication.
This can be due to opposition by organized labor and businesses in certain
sectors that are well adjusted or advantaged by the status quo. This is an
approach that Jeffry Frieden has developed over many years, Stefanie Walter
more recently. Both have shown these domestic preferences to be relevant for
determining exchange rate choices in US states, in Europe, and in Latin
America (Frieden 2002, 2015a; Walter 2008). My study does not deny this
when it takes a more aggregated view. On the contrary, it tries to make sense of
the fact that in very different countries political and business elites, often with
substantial popular support, aspired to have their country become a member
of the common currency area. But it does not go into the detail of how
domestic alliances shifted and a crucial coalition formed in favor of the euro
experiment.
A general answer to how such a momentous shift was possible in very
different countries can be gleaned from economics. It is the idea of insurance
or, more generally, risk sharing: diversity of membership can be an opportun-
ity for risk diversication (Imbs and Mauro 2007). More specically, joining a
heterogeneous union can help a member state to reduce, shift, and spread
downside risks for national income, employment, and consumption. The risk
of each member in the pool becomes smaller, the less common the national
risks are. If national or regional risks do not all materialize at the same time,
there will always be some that are lucky and can support the unlucky. This is
the case of asynchronous business cycles, where economic paths are only
weakly correlated. The risk of the overall pool can even be reduced if the
fortune of one member is directly linked to the misfortune of another (nega-
tive correlation). A strengthening currency vis--vis the US dollar may be a
boon for a region depending on oil imports as they get cheaper while a region
depending on car exports to the US market nds it harder to sustain its
business.
The benets of risk sharing can also be reaped by enabling members to take
more gainful risks without raising the potential damage to themselves. Greater
economic specialization has been the route to higher income for individuals
as well as geopolitical entities. But specialization is a form of risk taking and
brings with it vulnerability: that technological advances and changes in taste
make a particular skill or sector obsolete, or that a crucial ingredient becomes
6
so scarce that it renders production unprotable. If monetary union can

diversify the risk of economic specialization, for instance by making cross-
border nancial investors share it, then this could benet the risk pool as a
whole as it raises potential aggregate growth (Obstfeld 1984: 1311).
Finally, the introduction of a single currency can spread risk more widely
and even reduce it. To give three specic examples: rst, the liquidity risk of
assets denominated in one currency diminishes for each investor as the pool
of these assets becomes larger. Second, the risk of running out of foreign
exchange reserves is reduced as more trade with other member states is con-
ducted in the same currency. Third, there is an immediate benet in terms of a
lower risk premium paid by rms, households, and the government in former
soft-currency areas. Those in former hard-currency areas lose a general com-
petitive advantage but this can be compensated for by more real exchange rate
stability as well as expanding markets in the other member states.
1.1.2 The Puzzle of Monetary Solidarity

But risk sharing does not happen automatically. A single currency has to be
introduced, maintained, and stabilized. If left to spontaneous market forces,
monetary-nancial integration can also lead to concentration and accumula-
tion of risks or to shifting of risks onto those that are least able to bear them.
Policies and markets have to be developed and maintained with a view to what
they do to risks. Rules on nancial innovation and competition, prudential
supervision, and lending of last resort are relevant here, along with the
upholding of commitments between governments. Each of these interven-
tions may have a specic rationale and be done on their own merit rather than
with a view to risk sharing at large (Jones 2012: 58).
A currency union is therefore not only about sharing pre-existing (exogen-
ous) risks but also managing (endogenous) risks that emerge with integration.
Especially in situations of crisis, this requires cooperation against the odds that
members of the risk pool may resist certain manifestations of interdependence.
Members may want to share some risks but not others, only catastrophic risks
or only risks up to a certain limit. Pooling risks means greater interdependence:
the bad luck of one member becomes a common concern, because the member
may be entitled to compensation and because its bad luck can spill over more
easily onto other members if nancial systems have become more linked.
Collective action is required to manage this interdependence to the mutual
benet of the members in the risk pool. What is in the rational interest of each
member is not necessarily compatible with the common interest.
We should not assume that monetary solidarity in the sense of deliberate,
accepted, or at least tolerated risk sharing is the primary intention of govern-
ments seeking gains from cooperation. There are many strong forces that
7
militate against collective action in general and risk sharing in a monetary union
in particular (Section 2.3). Fear of excessive risk taking by others is a much-cited
concern; fear of increasing interdependence, being susceptible to the external-
ities of other members woes, is at least a lingering issue. The inconvenience of
having to honor a commitment when it is needed most is an underestimated
obstacle to risk pooling although other commitment problems of governments
were explicitly handled in the policy architecture of the union.
Reaping gains from cooperation fully would require hierarchy, a supra-
national or federal government that could act as a risk manager, just like
governments do in and for markets. What makes an authority a government
is that it has the legitimate powers to compel, to tax, and to print money (Moss
2002: 52). It can mandate social insurance where private offers are not forth-
coming and thus extend risk sharing. It can regulate private offers to shift
some or all risks onto those that are better able to bear them, for instance
through limited liability from debtors (countries and their citizens or com-
panies and their employees) to creditors. It can enlist future generations into
the risk pool through public debt, pay-as-you-go schemes, and the issue of the
legal tender, thus spreading the risk of default and vastly extending the
commitment that the sharing of some risks requires.
When it is not individuals but states that have to be cajoled into risk
sharing, authority is even more difcult to establish. Even in the US, the
federal government can generally not force states to comply with its policies:
instead it must incentivize them. The European Commission has not even the
instrument of budgetary incentives and is for the time being more a fourth
branch of government for transnational socio-economic regulation than a
nascent federal government (Majone 1993).
There are many ways in which collective action may fail. Even so, many
European governments have delegated away monetary policy, one of the
signature policies of any sovereign state. Herein lies the puzzle. Historically,
the US federation is an example of monetary risk sharing against the odds
(Chapter 4): the US dollar area was founded with the introduction of the
greenback just when the political union had broken up, during the bitter
divisions between the states in the North and South. Many decades later, a
federal budget, combined with a central bank and a federal deposit insurance
and resolution authority, ended a nancial history of banking crises not seen
anywhere else in the Western hemisphere (Broz 1998: 5; see Chapter 4). The
comparison with the US does not show that it has complete risk sharing and
that the EA has none; rather it shows that it took a long time to nd a less
crisis-prone settlement in the US. Indeed, the sequence was not so different
because US states were initially as reluctant to engage in collective action as are
member states in the EA today. Centralized solutions were accepted only after
all else had failed.
8
This study provides evidence for risk sharing and even monetary solidarity
in the EA. The nancial crisis demonstrated the power of the monetary
channel of risk sharing: the sole government power that an EA institution
has, the power to print money, has been used massively since 2007 to alleviate
a devastating liquidity crisis in all member states. And despite all the mayhem,
payments in euro have been processed between member states without any
interruption. A currency union in Europe was rst devised in the 1970s and
the project repeatedly foundered (Verdun 2000). But when the union was
nally created, it started with a larger membership than originally envisaged,
pooling traditionally strong and traditionally weak currency areas. Member-
ship kept on expanding even at the height of crisis, including the considerably
poorer but fast-growing economies of the former Soviet Union, as three Baltic
states joined between 2011 and 2015.
Avoiding the next crisis is and has been a prime instigator of monetary
solidarity in Europe and the US, making risk sharing a by-product of crisis
management that is preoccupied with shielding the lucky from the fall-out of
crisis in unlucky countries. The power asymmetries that come to the fore in
these situations make solidarity typically feel like tough love rather than
tender care. A prime example of such tough love are the emergency funds
created in the European Union (EU) after 2010 which combine historically
unprecedented amounts of sovereign lending with very harsh and intrusive
conditionality. The theory of collective action can explain why monetary
solidarity is not necessarily a pretty sight.
1.1.3 Overcoming Collective Action Problems

The solution to the puzzle of monetary solidarity cannot be found in some
pre-existing bond of European governments. Risk sharing as such has not
been an explicit goal of monetary union while exchange rate stabilization
was. The negotiations over the terms of the EA were protracted and extremely
hard as the readers of Moravcsik (1998) and Dyson and Featherstone (1999)
know. The maintenance of agreed institutions, like the Stability and Growth
Pact, has been a struggle since its inception; the maintenance of the euro since
2010 led to acrimonious conicts.2 In line with the institutionalist literature
around Keohane and Ostrom (1995), I assume that governments cooperate
only if they see it as benecial for their goals. This is not to deny that some
decision makers act out of a real belief in European integration and a sense of
historical responsibility. But I doubt that such beliefs can carry their constitu-
encies with them when it comes to the more mundane task of creating and
2
Batastin (2012) and Sandbu (2015) give particularly vivid accounts of the conicts.
9
upholding institutions of monetary integration, such as new rules for budget-

ary discipline.
The by-product theory of collective action provides a solution to the puzzle of
monetary solidarity and deliberate risk sharing even if it was not the primary
intention of interstate cooperation. It draws on work by Lawrence Broz (1997,
1998) which shows, with painstaking historical evidence, how internationally
active banks in New York managed to campaign effectively for the introduc-
tion of the Federal Reserve System.3 They had a purely private interest in the
creation of this system, but the system their initiative helped to create was a
public good. The active private interests did not exhaust all the benets.
Similarly, we nd that proponents of monetary integration have particular
interests in stable exchange rates, low ination, and low interest rates. But a
stable currency is then a public good used by all citizens of that currency area
and even beyond: some governments outside use it as a stability anchor, from
Denmark to Bulgaria and Croatia.
This by-product theory can explain the creation of a common resource.
Ostroms work on governing the commons (Ostrom 1990) provides insights
into its management once provided. Monitoring is needed to preserve a
common resource because, unlike a pure public good, it can be exhausted.
In a self-governing system, users monitor each other in the course of reaping
their private benets from the commons. In a similar vein, the use of a
common currency in the collective (and diverse) interests of member states
requires monitoring to prevent uses that diminish the quality of a currency:
the tragedy of the commons. Again, a self-governing system is one where each
member state has incentives and opportunities to monitor the others as a
by-product of its own use of the common currency (Ostrom 1990: 1920).
Some negotiators in the creation of the monetary union, notably from
Germany, were quite explicit about their fear of a tragedy of the commons,
even though they may not have used the term. The fear was specically that
other member states would overissue government bonds denominated in the
common currency. This was considered as a moral hazard problem of a
common currency: the larger capital market would absorb excessive debt
issues of relatively small countries, yet if all do it, it will end up diminishing
the quality of the currency, either through ination or rising interest rates
for all (Beetsma 2001: 289). The policy architecture of the Economic and
Monetary Union (EMU) was thus built against this exploitation of a common
resource as perceived by governments of hard-currency countries (Issing
2002; Chapter 5). This architecture was presented as an antidote to the decit
3
The concept of a by-product theory of collective action goes back to Mancur Olson (1971) who
considered this to be a rather exceptional way for collective action to come about, compared to his
privileged group theory. Section 2.2 contains more details on this.
10
bias of democracies generally and European countries specically (Hallerberg

2004; Poterba and von Hagen 1999). However, the evidence on the political
manipulation of budgets and economic policies generally is rather complex
(Franzese 2002) and does not lend itself to quick xes (Dubois 2016: 2468).
Moreover, underuse of the common resource can also be a problem, stiing
growth.
Introducing and maintaining a common currency is beset with collective
action problems. But a system with separate currencies is not free of collective
action problems either. Before monetary union, member states other than
Germany repeatedly experienced negative externalities from the Bundes-
banks monetary policy (von Hagen 1989; Kenen 2000: 20). One aim of
establishing a common currency was to rein these in or even eliminate
them. The Bundesbanks setting of interest rates did not and arguably could
not take all concerns of other member states in the pegged exchange rate
system into account and so, inadvertently, pushed other members into inter-
est rate moves that were not right for the cyclical state of their national
economies. If they tried to use interest rates for domestic purposes, turmoil
in nancial markets ensued. In this light, we can see that the common
currency did not mean sacricing monetary sovereignty; instead, states
sought to replace monetary dependence with a common monetary policy
that was not exclusively geared to German conditions.
An important building block for the theory of monetary integration that this
book develops is a systematic account of political market failures (Keohane
1984: 85). Sovereigns in international relations are confronted with coordin-
ation issues that are similar to those that market actors face in voluntary
exchanges. If coordination is achieved, it must be because it is in each states
own interest, as there is no higher authority to enforce cooperationthe term
political market highlights exactly the absence of hierarchy. Political science
provides some clues on when we should expect such self-enforcing cooper-
ation. Issue linkage can overcome different interests or interest intensities,
repetition can overcome commitment and information problems, delegated
monitoring can overcome free riding in coordination problems (Martin 1995:
767; Chapter 2).
The economic theory of the welfare state also provides insights into possible
bases for solutions to political market failures (Barr 1992; Moss 2002: 3952).
Just as there is a range of policy options in which institutions providing insur-
ance and redistribution reinforce the efciency of the market economy, so can
institutions that safeguard diversity give incentives for mutually benecial
cooperation (Snidal 1995: 627). Peter Baldwins (1990) study of the politics
of social solidarity, from which the title of this book takes its cue, spells out its
interest-based approach particularly clearly. He summarizes his historical com-
parison of US and Swedish welfare state developments thus: Solidarity . . . has
11
been the outcome of a generalized and reciprocal self-interest. Not ethics, but
politics explain it (Baldwin 1990: 299).
Risk sharing in a diverse monetary union provides rich empirical material
with which to probe these insights. They support an approach to monetary
solidarity which is essentially rationalist.4 This approach is adopted here for
several reasons. First, it is apt for a study in which the agents are governments,
not individuals. Solidarity cannot be based on altruistic motives in a context
where democratically elected governments have to agree on long-term com-
mitments with other governments, each of them accountable to national
parliaments and domestic public opinion, not to an imaginary European
demos. The political system of democracy forces some degree of instrumental
rationality upon politicians. Second, by assuming rationality and the pursuit
of self-interest among relevant actors, the cards are stacked against nding
solidarity. If we nonetheless nd it, we will have more robust evidence than if
extra-rational motivations like identication with fellow Europeans or feel-
ings of belonging were invoked from the start.
Monetary solidarity here is a minimalist notion, not about the publics
attitude towards the plight of individuals in other countries with which they
share a currency. Such a substantive notion of solidarity is sensible when, for
instance, the openness of welfare systems to migrants is the issue (Hall 2014b).
In an intergovernmental setting, however, solidarity by stealth can be real
solidarity and the only form to be had at the point of institution building.
1.2 The Economic Underpinning of Monetary Solidarity
Monetary integration is here understood to be a way of sharing risks between

geopolitical entities, be it states within a confederation like the EU or within a
federation like the US. The risks to be shared through monetary integration are
typically related to nancial instability. Sharing these risks can entail other
forms of coordinated exchange rate stabilization short of currency unication,
such as target zones (Miller et al. 1989; Schelkle 2001). Exchange rate instabil-
ity became a preoccupation of policymakers after the breakdown of Bretton
Woods since the early 1970s (Frankel 1996). When the domestic currency
depreciates sharply, it raises the domestic currency value of foreign debt
equally sharply, getting rms, households, and sovereigns with foreign debt
into difculties. Currency appreciation can also be damaging, potentially
jeopardizing the nancial robustness of internationally active banks, for
4
Jones (2012: 589) is an interesting alternative account of solidarity between countries or
governments, which follows different norms depending on the sphere of application: wartime
alliances follow a different logic of solidarity than economic integration.
12
instance when their foreign debtors go bust, as well as impairing the competi-
tiveness of export industries. Countries with exactly opposite motives, namely
those exposed to depreciation and to appreciation pressures, have reason to seek
some form of cooperation to stabilize their exchange rate. It was thought that
most of these risks could be eliminated when exchange rates between major
trading partners were abolished. But the previous balance-of-payments crises
gave way to another form of crisis in the EA: negative feedback loops between
domestic banks and their sovereigns (De Grauwe 2013: 267; Section 6.2).5
The prime source of exchange rate risk is that this crucial price of an
economy is determined in asset markets, a view that had become consolidated
in international economics textbooks by the mid-1980s (Frenkel and Mussa
1984). The theory of speculative currency attacks had just been triggered by
Paul Krugman (1979) and became a lively research program for over two
decades, moving ever further away from fundamental (real) determinants
toward modeling the speculative behavior in nancial markets (Flood and
Marion 1996). The gist of this literature is that nominal exchange rates tend
to be more volatile than justied by changes in fundamentals (such as wages
or consumer preferences) and can be over- or undervalued for what would be
required for current-account balance. A common exchange rate spreads
the volatility risks across the currency area and limits both movements and
over- or undervaluation to other determinants of the real exchange rate
(prices for labor and non-traded inputs, productivity). This eliminates com-
petitive advantages or disadvantages that afict individual rms by the mere
fact that they are located in a particular currency area. Modern exchange rate
economics therefore support the optimistic view that comparative advan-
tages of rms would become more truthfully reected in prices inside a
monetary union. This view can be found in the major EMU study One
market, one money, prepared by the Directorate-General of Economic and
Financial Affairs, on why a single currency would complement the Single
Market (CEC 1990: 9): microeconomic efciency, macroeconomic stability,
and equity as between countries and regions would be fostered if exchange
rates no longer disturbed or masked the underlying differences in national or
regional competitiveness.
1.2.1 Risks to Be Shared in Monetary Integration

There can be many reasons why states may be able to share risks with other
states to mutual advantage (Moss 2002: 1415). There can be high and low risk
tolerance and unequal risk-bearing capacities which enable those with higher
5
There are authors, such as Sinn (2012), who claim that the EA crisis is a balance-of-payments
crisis. But this is a misrepresentation in my view, to be discussed in detail in Chapter 9.
13
tolerance or capacity to offer insurance to others: funding national or inter-

national assistance in the case of devastating oods or seasonal storms is such
a form of interstate insurance. Differential risk assessments and complemen-
tary portfolio balancing can be other reasons: thus we see sovereign wealth
funds investing in other countries economies. But these instances of inter-
state risk sharing are still somewhat exotic and ad hoc, and play a more
important role in risk sharing between private actors.6 Between states, diver-
sication of risks is arguably the most relevant rationale. Diversication hap-
pens whenever independent and less than fully correlated risks are pooled,
be it through (regulated) markets and/or public institutions, for instance a
central bank.
Currency unication creates such a risk pool. Before joining, investors
attached a price to the probability that, for example, Portuguese rms would
experience payment difculties due to a current-account crisis or that ination
would lead to a devaluation of the escudo. This made for higher interest rates
and also short maturities of credit. Once the likelihood of payment difculties
is reducedbecause Portuguese rms earn their export revenues and have to
pay their wages and import bills to a large extent in the same currencythen
credit can be extended at a lower risk premium and for longer maturities. The
same holds for indebted sovereigns, especially if they were indebted in foreign
currency. The probability of members payments difculties becomes to some
extent averaged, the extent depending on the exact nature of the insurance
arrangement. If there is little integration of nancial markets, payments dif-
culties may still occur in members banking systems: if Portuguese rms lose
out in trade competition and nancial markets suddenly lose faith in their
ability to pay back their credits, Portuguese banks that largely extended these
credits are likely to have problems accessing wholesale markets for liquidity.
The risk of payments difculties then depends on the willingness of the joint
central bank to act resolutely as lender of last resort to these banks; but the
central bank may refer banks under such strain back to the scal authority of a
member state and ask them to bail out the affected banks instead.
Current-account imbalances (or indeed speculative runs fueled by herding
behavior) in foreign exchange markets affect countries with both decits and
surpluses, that is those facing depreciation and appreciation pressures. But
their self-insurance potential is very different. A currency area with a decit
and under depreciation pressure cannot produce the means of payment in
which trading rms have to pay their bills and in which market actors want to
hold their assets. The counterpart with appreciation pressure, by contrast, can
6
Economies specializing as nancial centers can cater to these other motivations for interstate
risk sharing. But such services are still in their infancy, for reasons discussed in Shillers book on
missing macro markets (1993).
14
simply accumulate foreign exchange reserves. This means the central bank
expresses a demand for foreign currency that lowers the upward pressure on its
own currency. It can also reduce the interest rate to make capital inows less
attractive, although a low interest rate comes at the cost of inationary
potential.7 While the creditor countries are apparently in an advantageous
position, it remains the case that, if the debtor country can no longer pay,
banks and export rms in the creditor country will lose out as well. The Bretton
Woods institutions were created for such situations and are in the interest
of both parties: debtors and creditors. The emergency funds (the European
Stability Mechanism and its temporary predecessor) that the EA has created
since 2010 follow the International Monetary Fund (IMF) model. These funds
pool the risk of insolvency crises that affect entire states. A diversied banking
system without a home bias and a system-wide bank resolution facility would
be an alternative, as the nancial history of the US shows (Chapter 4).
Country-specic shocks and asynchronous business cycles are the risks
stressed by the mainstream economic theory of monetary integration
(Degiannakis et al. 2014; see Section 1.2.4). Proponents argue that countries
at different stages of the business cycle or experiencing idiosyncratic shocks
may require different movements of the exchange rate, and therefore should
not enter a monetary union. The risk-sharing perspective, by contrast, sees
asynchronous cycles and different vulnerabilities to shocks as opportunities
for mutually benecial insurance: if not all member states experience abnor-
mally high unemployment or lower than trend income at the same time, the
lucky members can thus compensate the unlucky ones in a downturn. Such
compensation does not require transfer payments: it can come about through
trade and cross-border asset holdings; external demand can replace depressed
domestic demand; nancial returns on assets held abroad can substitute for
depressed protability at home.
This compensation would be less valuable if each member had effective mon-
etary policy at its disposal. But very few governments in the world have it, and
Europeans are no exception.8 The lesson of the 1980s and 1990s was that efforts
to operate monetary policy for domestic demand management brought exces-
sive exchange rate volatility. When they stabilized their exchange rates through
7
This inationary potential can be sterilized to some extent, for instance by raising reserve
requirements for domestic banks. This is how the Bundesbank managed to undervalue the D-Mark
(prevent instant revaluation) and keep ination in check, by amassing foreign exchange reserves. It
has the advantage of hardening a currency while keeping the exchange rate favorable for exports,
imitated today by the Chinese central bank. This undervaluation strategy raises some doubts as to
whether the Bundesbank was so un-Keynesian as is often portrayed since this strategy clearly
stimulated (foreign) demand for domestic products and kept interest rates low thanks to
revaluation expectations (Riese 1989).
8
The 19923 crisis of the European Monetary System revealed this brutally (Section 5.1.1).
15
the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), they had to follow the Bundesbanks lead
on interest rates (James 2012: 343). Monetary union means for such satellite
currency areas that interest rates are set in line with demand conditions across
the EA, rather than just for German conditions. This joint monetary policy is a
form of insurance.
1.2.2 Risk-Sharing Mechanisms

Risk pooling or sharing between states can be achieved through various
mechanisms. A transfer union is often the rst mechanism that springs to
the mind of commentators.9 But it is typically not the most important form of
risk sharing even in scal federations like the US (Henning and Kessler 2012:
1014). States can rarely rely on international assistance to any signicant
degree and the effects on the economic and social fabric may not even be
desirable. Within nation states, transfers appear more viable: one region may
depend extensively and continuously on transfers from other regions, pro-
vided through the central budget. However, even within nations, long-term
net transfers may trigger secessionist movements by the richer regions, as the
Northern League in Italy and a referendum about Catalonias independence in
Spain illustrate.
Monetary policy, with its effects on interest rates and exchange rates, is a
politically less salient transfer mechanism. Higher or lower interest rates imply
a transfer between debtor and creditor countries, but since markets are the
transmission mechanism, the distributive effects do not normally appear as
rst-order policy effects. There are in all economies rms and households that
are debtors and others creditors, as well as sectors that are net exporters and
others that are net importers. Such internal diversity creates stakeholders and
opponents of interstate risk sharing through monetary policy, but it also
makes the implied transfers less visible and unidirectional.
Another mechanism of risk sharing is regulatory intervention, such as the
assurance of free trade or a migration regime that allows workers and their
families to move, nd work, and integrate into the welfare system of another
member state (Chapter 8). These are the supranational counterparts of familiar
devices of regulatory risk management at the national level, such as limited
liability for rms or consumer bankruptcy law (Moss 2002). These devices
allocate risks over the parties to a contract. When they are efcient, they
shift risk onto the party that can more easily bear it or provide time and
9
Some lawyers see European emergency funds already as a way into a transfer union because
borrowing sovereigns may default that would then make these funds draw on the guarantor
countries (Ruffert 2011: 12913). However, IMF lending before the EA crisis then also constituted
a transfer union between guarantor and debtor countries while the IMF is more plausibly
understood as an institution to prevent such transfers.
16
opportunity for adjustment. For instance, the assurance of open borders can
allow a country to engage in export-led adjustment without being stopped by
countries in which these exports lead to job losses. Similarly, the ability to
migrate allows citizens to make a living and even to remit some of their
earnings to a country of origin that may not be able to generate enough jobs
in the short to medium term. The more entrenched such assurances are, the
more these institutions resemble insurance rather than ad hoc risk sharing
which may be revoked when it is needed most.
Finally, the literature that rst explored systematically interstate risk sharing
of output shocks stressed nancial market channels.10 Closer nancial market
integration fosters cross-border lending, borrowing, and shareholding. The
cross-border owner of shares or stocks has a claim on the output of another
country. If the domestic economy experiences a downturn, household con-
sumption can be sustained by income from property rights in foreign rms.
This may also concern future consumption, for instance if pension funds are
invested in foreign shares and can thus achieve a better rate of return on the
claims of their policy holders than if they were only invested in domestic
shares. Cross-border lending may allow those who have fallen on hard times
to get credit from a foreign bank in times when the lending capacity of
domestic banks has been curtailed. All this of course works vice versa in an
upswing: consumption may be somewhat dampened by lower property
income from abroad, and domestic credit may be scarcer or more expensive
because some credit is extended to other countries. In reality, most house-
holds benet from the international diversication of property rights and
credit access only indirectly, if at all (Balli et al. 2011). But, as already indi-
cated, households may hold savings deposits, pensions, or insurance policies
with internationally diversied nancial rms. International diversication
was thought to stabilize the returns on assets which these banks, funds, or
insurers hold on behalf of savers.
1.2.3 Monetary Solidarity as the Outcome of Institutional Evolution

The outline of risk-sharing mechanisms above implies that a monetary union
has three pillars: the joint currency, a common monetary policy, and inte-
grated nancial markets. In the EA, restrictions on risk sharing were placed
on all three. The joint currency was deliberately divorced from scal back-
stops (Goodhart 1998: 410); monetary policy was legally restrained in its
10
The contribution of various channels to risk sharing was rst systematically explored by
Asdrubali et al. (1996) for US states and Srensen and Yosha (1998) for Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Chapter 3 contains a more detailed
discussion with further references.
17
lender-of-last-resort role to sovereigns even in a systemic crisis (De Grauwe

2011); and restraining scal rules were implemented to counteract the temp-
tations of a large market for euro-denominated government bonds (Kenen
2003). The potential for risk sharing was acknowledged, only to be sup-
pressed. But the suppression was partial and has proved not to be sustainable.
This begs the question: why look for interstate risk sharing as a by-product
of national bargains at all? Was the EA not deliberately made to minimize risk
sharing between member states? Skeptics can point to the infamous no-
bailout clause of Article 125 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European
Union. It states that no member state is under any obligation to assume the
debt of another member state. This seemed categorically to exclude any scal
risk sharing. Yet, the clause acknowledges the potential for risk sharing that
comes with currency unication at the same time as it tries to exclude it. In
practice, this exclusion could not be maintained: ve countries have been
bailed out with the help of emergency funds created since 2010.11 When
limits to risk sharing become self-defeating and are no longer in the interest
of important veto players or a majority of members in the risk pool, the
limiting arrangements are likely to be reformed.12
The result of the bailouts was monetary solidarity, in the sense of creating
for the rst time a permanent capacity for scal risk sharing if a member state
government is in distress, in the guise of the European Stability Mechanism.
This institution building was a by-product of every member states attempts to
protect its own public nances from the damage that would have resulted
from a deepening of the recession and failing banks that held bonds of the
distressed sovereigns (Sandbu 2015: 538). It was also a by-product of member
states trying to protect domestic creditors with claims on the ve countries
that were bailed out. The no-bailout clause became defunct, surviving only as
the option that a member state can, in principle, refrain from contributing to a
bailout program for another. The newly created scal capacity has been delib-
erately limited and access is strictly conditional: recipients have to accept an
intrusive and restrictive stabilization program. Yet the EAs bailout programs
are more than state governments in the United States can hope for if in scal
difculty (Henning and Kessler 2012). The political economy of monetary
solidarity seeks to explain such apparent anomalies.
One explanation for such anomalies is that supranational collective goods
that emerge as the by-product of national interests are not necessarily well
designed. Indeed, they may not be designed at all, and subsequently prove to
be too limited or dysfunctional, especially if introduced under the strains of a
11
In temporal order: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus.
12
This has also been a repeated experience with scal surveillance (Heipertz and Verdun 2004:
1204; Schelkle 2005, 2009).
18
crisis (Snidal 1995: 51, 68). Inequality among participating states means risk
allocation may be perverse and regressive, shifting costs of adjustment onto
politically and economically weaker members that are ill-equipped to bear
them. Yet crises are also opportunities for joint action, spurred by a sense of
emergency that forces the executives hands (White, J. 2015: 958), however
objectionable the process. In a union of democracies, there is a chance that
apparent dysfunctionalities and blatant inequities get ironed out over time.
Particularly aggrieved member states will register an upsurge in Euroskepti-
cism that rings alarm bells throughout the union. And perverse risk allocation
among interdependent political economies can have knock-on effects which
damage those who are apparently the winners in the rst round. Even so, we
should not expect a continuous reform process towards an ever more func-
tional union. If the by-product theory has traction, other limitations and
dysfunctionalities are likely to be introduced with each reform.
There is thus no nalit in monetary integration. The resources institutional
actors owe each other under particular conditions are often implied rather
than fully spelled out. Solidarity emerges in the practice of maintaining the
common resource and managing it for long-term use. Governing the com-
mons (Ostrom 1990) requires collective action with each member having a
stake in it. This is a precondition for enjoying the national benet sustainably.
But as the empirical work of Elinor Ostrom has also shown, such governance
without hierarchy is precarious.
1.2.4 The Non-Solution of Mainstream Economic Theory

The mainstream economic theory of monetary integration provides no solu-
tion to the puzzle of why risk sharing happens, on the contrary, it makes it
only more startling. Hence, US economists are particularly fond of telling their
audiences why European monetary integration should not have happened,
cant work, and wont last (Jonung and Drea 2009). The theoretical basis for
their verdict is typically that the EA is not an optimal currency area (OCA).
This is true, but no currency area in the world is. The two most important
founders of OCA theory later revoked essential parts of their contributions
(Mundell 1973, 2002: 1456; Kenen 2000: 1617). Mundell argued that a
common currency can foster risk sharing through nancial markets and,
thanks to the development of the asset price theory of the exchange rate, he
ceased to consider exchange rates to be stabilizing instruments of adjustment
(De Grauwe 2006).
The line of argument in OCA theory, even in advanced formulations such as
that of Farhi and Werning (2014), can be summarized as follows: with mon-
etary integration, member states give up an effective exchange rate instru-
ment, lock themselves into a rigid currency regime, presumably to save some
19
transaction costs, and thus compound the difculties created by wage and
price stickiness. Because private wage and price setters do not internalize the
effects of their decisions on macroeconomic stabilization, private markets
provide inefciently low insurance against country-specic shocks. A scal
union then has to come to the rescue. This theory leaves readers wondering
why governments wanted a monetary union in the rst place, especially if
they excluded scal integration. Politics, in the trivial form of integrationist
sentiment, is invoked to ll the gap, even by the most brilliant minds (Farhi
and Werning 2014: fn 1; Krugman 2013: 447).
There are three reasons why OCA theory is problematic as the basis for
judging the suitability of a monetary union (Schelkle 2013a, 2015).
First, it was developed in the 1960s in order to analyze the tensions in the
Bretton Woods system. The question it set out to tackle was the choice of
exchange rate regime facing (developed) countries. In a famous conference
volume dedicated to promoting OCA theory, Mundell illustrated the prac-
tical signicance of OCA analysis thus: Europe today has a choice as to what
kind of currency area it is going to have; whether it is more important to
develop a gold bloc in Europe, or to keep Europes currencies pegged to the
dollar and to remain part of an Atlantic currency area (Mundell and Swoboda
1969: 111). The theory does not talk about essential issues, such as whether
member states should unify monetary policy and possibly scal policies or
foster nancial market integration.
Second, OCA theory is based on an outdated theory of what determines
(xed and exible) exchange rates. Indeed, soon after OCA theory was
expounded, Mundell and other economists developed the theory of the
exchange rate as an asset price. An asset price is formed based on expected
returns on portfolios of assets; when expectations about the future change, it
can change abruptly, and without regard to ows of payments for goods and
services. Rather than giving national authorities a degree of freedom, having a
national currency forces them to steer policies and invest resources to stabilize
this important asset price, as a oating exchange rate is not governed by the
needs of the material economy. The excessive volatility of exchange rates
since the 1970s was experienced as very disruptive in many countries even
though it was soon to be dwarfed by banking crises (Babeck et al. 2012: 910;
Bordo et al. 2001: 567). This is crucial for understanding why monetary
integration looked so attractive on purely economic grounds.
Third, OCA theory has a very narrow focus: it treats monetary integration as
a one-off decision, and does not consider the effects of monetary policy insti-
tutions and nancial market integration that accompany a currency union.13
13
Farhi and Werning (2014: fn 1) cannot have the original contributions in mind when they
claim that OCA theory takes the existence of a currency union as given. Paul De Grauwes recent
20
Rather, the original theory was preoccupied with the effects of labor market
integration and industrial specialization. It does not help us to understand the
difculties of maintaining a currency union in a nancial crisis. This has not
prevented a renaissance of the theory to explain the EA crisis which is why we
return to it in Section 6.2.1.
There are complementary critiques of OCA theory. Iversen et al. (2016:
10.810.9) formulate a strong rebuttal based on the Varieties of Capitalism
approach to comparative political economy: as argued above, Iversen et al. saw
a mutually compatible economic interest in low interest rates and low ina-
tion; but the EA institutions were determined by the interests of Northern
coordinated market economies which wanted to protect their regulated, pro-
ductively inexible labor markets14 against competitive devaluation from
Southern mixed market economies. This is a creative critique of OCA theory
by comparative political economists. But they accept two basic tenets of that
theory: that labor markets are the crucial battleground for reaping the benets
of a monetary union and that exchange rates could be manipulated at will by
Southern economies. The economic theory underlying the political economy
of monetary solidarity suggests that nancial markets decide whether all or
only some will gain from currency unication, in line with the path-breaking
work of De Grauwe (2015). And an effective exchange rate policy was beyond
most countries macroeconomic policy authorities. It requires either coordin-
ation of policies that only a few countries, for instance Sweden, manage to pull
off; or it rests on a hard-earned reputation that even the UK could not always
rely on in its post-war history.
The theory of Optimal Financial Areas by Erik Jones and Geoffrey Underhill
(2014) is the most developed account of monetary integration that has nancial
markets, rather than the common currency, as its core. In contrast to the strand
of OCA theory to be reviewed in Chapter 3, Jones and Underhill (2014) do
not take risk sharing through nancial markets as a given but analyze the
infrastructure necessary to make it happen. This is akin to the interfaces of
risk sharing that Section 3.3 develops and then applies in the following
chapters. But it is largely a functional theory that is less interested in answering
why not all of the necessary elements emerge (Jones and Underhill 2014: 3).
This inherent incompleteness, the sub-optimality of the European nancial
area, is in my view crucial to understanding the euro experiment.
editions on the economics of monetary integration illustrate how far removed from the original
OCA theory an up-to-date, standard-setting textbook on the subject has become (De Grauwe 2015).
14
The inexibility consists of long-term employment relationships (low labor mobility) that
combine high employment protection with investment in a trained labor force; and collective
wage restraint (low wage exibility) to secure export markets at the cost of an underdeveloped
domestic service economy. Hanck (2013) contains the most labor market focused explanation of
national success and failure in the EA.
21
1.3 Overview
This study seeks to show that diversity of membership is a potential and actual
source of mutual benets from currency union. It makes this argument for the
EA of nineteen countries (as of 2015),15 a currency union of nation states
without historical precedent (Eichengreen 2008). Readers with interests
beyond the EU may well ask what this study can teach them. In other
words: what is the European currency union a case of? And which diversities
between member states matter for monetary integration?
The European monetary union is a particular institutionalization of risk
sharing between member states; the US dollar area is another. In fact, even
regions in the UKeasily one of the most centralized tax-transfer states in the
OECDcan be analyzed in those terms: the governor of the Bank of England,
Mark Carney (2015), compared risk sharing between regions in the UK with
that between member states of the EA. He suggested that the UK was recover-
ing from the crisis more quickly, rst, because of deeper as well as less bank-
based nancial integration, and second because of scal integration, notably
that the budget of the Scottish government was not as dependent on oil
revenues as the Scottish economy.
The UK case is suggestive, but the US federation allows for a richer compari-
son with the EA. The semi-sovereignty of US states gives rise to collective
action problems that are categorically similar to those that the EA constantly
faces, given that its member states have parliaments with legislative authority
to authorize budgets and judicial systems that apply both state and federal
law. The economic literature on channels of risk sharing between states started
with an investigation of the US that was then applied to the OECD, the EU,
and later the EA. The ambition of the empirical chapters is to highlight how
similar the policy issues are and have been historically, even though the two
monetary unions tackle them very differently. They are not least united in
diversity (Alber and Gilbert 2010) with each other but also among them-
selves. How the US turned its diversity into an opportunity for risk sharing
albeit not completelyis the guiding question for this comparison.
Chapters 2 and 3 provide the conceptual and empirical basis for a general
account of the political economy of monetary solidarity in currency unions.
Chapter 2 spells out the political market failures that collective action is up
against and the by-product theory of public goods provision that can make
such action happen despite resistance and obstacles. Once a monetary union
is established, its governance can be analyzed in light of the collective action
theory that Elinor Ostrom (1990) initiated, based on in-depth studies of how
15
The EMU is often used synonymously for the EA but this is formally incorrect since the
Economic Union refers to the Single or Internal Market to which all EU countries belong.
22
communities govern a common resource. Her work, and that of her many
followers, examined the conditions that make prevention of a tragedy of the
commons possible, an aspect that is completely absent from the mainstream
theory of monetary integration, OCA theory. These insights from managing
common pool resources were linked up with mainstream international rela-
tions and political economy by contributors to Keohane and Ostrom (1995).
There have been very few and limited attempts, such as Hallerberg (2004) and
Raudla (2010), at applying these insights to maintaining a currency union.
Chapter 3 reviews the empirical economic literature that has explored the
benets and the extent of interstate risk sharing. This literature is behind a
cautious paradigm shift by EU institutions, as outlined in the EUs Five Presi-
dents report (Juncker et al. 2015), whereby the previous emphasis on discip-
line and convergence is combined with a new emphasis on risk sharing. This is
a promising departure from OCA theory that sees diversity (asymmetry) of
members as an opportunity for risk sharing and establishes that, in normal
times, monetary-nancial integration leads to consumption smoothing of
output shocks. But the relevance of this literature is limited, above all, by its
assumption that nancial markets are efcient in diversifying output volatility.
Exploring the institutional prerequisites for nancial markets to play this role,
the chapter suggests that multiple interfaces of risk sharing between monetary,
scal, and prudential authorities have to be in place. Any one channel (central
banking, public budgets, resolution mechanisms by the nancial industry) is
too weak to insure interdependent nancial systems and is overburdened with
maintaining the integrity of a currency union on their own.
Before taking a close look at the institutional design and evolution of the EA,
Chapter 4 turns to the historical evolution of macroeconomic risk sharing in
the US. The US was the country with the highest frequency of nancial crises
in the developed world in the nineteenth and early twentieth century (Broz
1997: 5). The US example has often played a role in the debate between those
who advocated a political union ahead of monetary union and vice versa, but
we will see that neither can draw much evidence for their position from this
example. The US dollar area exhibited high diversity in economic structures,
particularly between the agricultural-rural South and West which were
dependent on elastic seasonal credit, and the industrial-nancial Northeast
where the dominant interests were keen to get a hard currency that would be
traded internationally. In the US monetary union, as in the EA, nancial crises
were the main drivers of reforms that overcame political resistance. The rst
national currency was introduced in the midst of the American Civil War,
when the political union had broken up. The setting of priorities in collective
action that such crises generated was, however, often contested and subject to
frequent revision. US history also provides ample evidence that nancial
markets are rather unreliable channels of interstate risk sharing.
23
Diversity was an important motivation for founding the European monet-

ary union. As emphasized above, the architects of the EA were fully aware of
the fact that the newly created monetary union would include political econ-
omies with very different ination records: traditional low-ination countries
such as Germany and the Netherlands, traditional high-ination countries
such as Italy and Spain, and many in between. To the extent that these
differences were due to national monetary policies, the common currency
would eliminate them. The policy architecture that was built was single-
mindedly focused on stability-oriented monetary policy and prudent scal
policy. In Chapter 5 I argue that this was meant to protect the commons of a
currency providing low ination and low interest rates. This goes against the
reading that EMU followed an ordo- or neoliberal script. Furthermore, some
risk sharing was built into the policy framework. For instance, the European
Central Bank (ECB) did not differentiate between government bonds accord-
ing to the national issuer when used as collateral in borrowing from the
central bank; while this was done for narrow monetary policy reasons, it
also constituted risk pooling that the ECB defended when criticized. At the
same time, nancial integration, instead of smoothing risks, expanded them.
Cross-border capital ows nanced catch-up growth but they also led to
unprecedented macroeconomic imbalances. There was an intruder to the
commons which was not well monitored, and this was cross-border banking.
Chapter 6 takes up the EA crisis that erupted in early 2010, following on
from the earlier nancial crisis and testing the policy framework to almost
breaking point. Scholarly accounts of the European monetary union have
been tested as well. In this chapter, the political economy of monetary soli-
darity is contrasted with two other diagnoses of why the EA has proven so
vulnerable to turmoil, the theory of OCAs (Krugman 2013), and the compara-
tive political economy of growth regimes, which has its roots in the Varieties
of Capitalism literature (Hall 2012, 2014a; Iversen et al. 2016). The main
argument against these competing diagnoses is that they cannot do justice
to the diversity of crisis experiences in the ve countries in need of support.
The diagnosis implied by the political economy of monetary solidarity is that
the unlucky few were singled out due to their nancial vulnerabilities in an
environment of self-fullling market panic. All experienced a negative feed-
back loop between bank and sovereign balance sheets, with enormous costs in
terms of income and employment losses. The EAs limited risk-sharing insti-
tutions could not protect them against what was partly a common shock and
partly endogenous nancial instability, even though they received bailout
funds that were multiples of ordinary IMF lending.
Since 2009, there have been frantic reforms to these institutions. Chapter 7
analyzes these with a view to whether and how they extended monetary
solidarity. The ndings are mixed. The rst response to the sovereign debt
24
phase of the international nancial crisis was to extend and tighten the rules
for scal risk prevention, although it took until mid-2016 before two member
states, Portugal and Spain, were even considered for sanctions and let off the
hook at the last minute (Eder 2016); France and Italy had received repeated
exemptions under the new rules. At the same time, some scal capacity for risk
sharing has been created, although support for distressed member states was
extended only under the most stringent conditions. Behind this limited scal
capacity, a contentious extension of the ECBs ability to lend indirectly to
sovereigns was announced by Mario Draghi (2012). This proved sufcient to
end the escalating crisis for the time being. The banking union showed a
similar pattern: on the one hand, it made a big step forward in creating the
worlds biggest jurisdiction of harmonized banking supervision in terms of
nancial assets, with the ECB at its helm; yet at the same time scal backstops
for bank resolution are minimal and a European deposit insurance scheme has
not yet come to pass. This has left the ECB as the principal reghter,
although driven less by choice than by market panic. In this, it has proved
to be rather effective, but it has been exposed to political challenges at every
twist and turn.
Chapters 8 and 9 look at specic risk-sharing mechanisms which highlight
other manifestations of diversity. Member states of both the US and the EA
monetary unions have quite different income levels. One way to alleviate the
risk of being born in a poor region is migration. Migration was one of the risk-
sharing mechanisms that the mainstream theory of monetary integration
highlighted, guring prominently in Mundells original analysis. There it
was seen as a way to adjust to idiosyncratic regional shocks. Yet, even in the
US, cyclical shocks have never been a major driver of migration ows,
although lasting differences in economic opportunities are. Regulated and
formally institutionalized rights to migrate can act as individual insurance.
Chapter 8 argues that welfare states are not obstacles to but vehicles for social
solidarity, making migration economically less regressive and politically more
viable. But the analysis also raises doubts that what may work for individuals
can contribute to risk sharing between regions. The conditions under which
both the regions of origin and of destination will benet from migration,
either by lowering the volatility of an accelerated growth process or by trading
off stability for higher growth, are quite specic and difcult to achieve.
Chapter 9 turns to consider institutions that insure against disruption to
cross-border payments, specically so-called sudden stops. These arise when
a crisis impedes the nancial ows that allow countries to run current-account
surpluses or decits for long periods. They were familiar to the policymakers
involved in negotiating the set-up of the EA, given that Germanys export
surpluses and other member states high decits were a source of tension in
efforts to stabilize exchange rates in the ERM. How is the risk of imbalances
25
and the fall-out of nancial instability shared in the EA? How can we explain
that these risks are shared at all? Chapter 9 answers these questions by com-
paring the EAs cross-border payments system TARGET with the cross-border
payments system ISA in the US. They performed very similarly during the
extraordinary monetary times of 200813, replacing the interbank market on
a truly impressive scale. But there was no US equivalent to the adversarial
politicization that a platform for cross-border payments attracted in Germany
and subsequently in the blogosphere.
Chapter 10 draws out the general conclusions. One question that may have
occurred to readers is whether all forms of diversity are helpful for diversifying
risks. Earlier chapters considered differences in ination performance, in
income levels and growth potential, as well as current-account balances.
I argue that the principal obstacle to risk sharing does not come from any
economic diversity but from the collective action required to make risk diver-
sication happen. Heterogeneity or diversity of membership can hinder mon-
etary solidarity but it can also provide incentives, in line with what an earlier
political science literature hypothesized (Martin 1995; Snidal 1995). This leads
on to policy implications. One issue is whether, over time, member states have
to become more similar for the EA to function well; the other is whether ever
closer integration with political union at the end is required. I argue that
European monetary union should preserve diversity, for both political and
economic reasons. Some scal capacityand thus closer union in this sense
would help to prevent negative feedback loops between private and public
debt. But fully edged scal federalism has its own drawbacks. Above all, ever
closer integration may undermine solidarity as it aggravates the real or per-
ceived problems of moral hazard and interdependence. Finally, I discuss the
implications of the EA being a monetary union of democracies but not a
democratic union; this has consequences for the type of risk sharing that
can be institutionally supported.
Ultimately, this attempt at understanding the experimental monetary
union, to paraphrase Laffan et al. (1999), is motivated by a political concern
that many citizens harbor when observing European integration with critical
sympathy and a vested interest in its success. Forming a union was meant to
ensure that open markets were governed collectively so that they would
generate more wealth and distribute it more fairly than without such govern-
ance. The unity this requires promised to respect, value, and, indeed, preserve
the diversity of public-sector and market institutions of its members. This
unity in diversity norm was extended to the single currency: it was expected
to end the asymmetric interest rate-setting power of the German Bundesbank,
protect small open economies against the vagaries of volatile exchange rates,
and thereby allow all members to develop according to their respective com-
parative advantages. The quest for unity in diversity is not just an example of
26
the high-minded, yet empty rhetoric typical of ofcial documents. It is a

fundamental promise (Sandbu 2015: 270). In return, member states must
accept constraints on their conduct of public affairs out of consideration for
the effects on other members. The promise of unity in diversity is one side of
the grand bargain that underpins the euro experiment.
27
Part I
Building Blocks
2
The Political Economy of

Monetary Solidarity
The political economy of monetary solidarity is political economy in that it

tries to explain why risk sharing in a union of diverse members is potentially
advantageous but also rife with political conict and economic strains, limit-
ing the solidarity extended. Cooperation and conict are two sides of the same
coin (Keohane 1984: 51): in the absence of gains from cooperation, autarky
could prevail and conict would be avoided. This political economy approach
has at its core collective action problems, which may concern outright failures
to cooperate or tradeoffs between different possibilities and priorities in col-
lective action.
The rst section of this chapter explains the puzzle of rational cooperation.
Why can it make sense for self-interested, instrumentally rational actors to
cooperate with others even if there is no superior power that forces them to
contribute to the common good? This was the question that a number of
scholars asked after the breakdown of the US dollar standard of Bretton
Woods, a breakdown that also spurred the rst attempts at European monet-
ary integration. The titles of two path-breaking books encapsulate the research
program: Robert Axelrods (1984) exploration of the evolution of cooper-
ation and Robert Keohanes (1984) study of interstate cooperation after
hegemony. This research program can explain when, why, and how different
and formally equal administrations would act collectively to cooperate in a
currency union without a central government.
The following section species the theoretical framework that understands
cooperation on risk sharing along the lines of Elinor Ostroms work on gov-
erning the commons (Ostrom 1990). This conceptualization opened up a
large space of inquiry between the polar opposites of anarchy and hierarchy
that international relations scholars used to study (Snidal 1995: 51). A major
challenge in adopting this conceptualization is to show that governing the
commons with a diverse membership is possible. Ostrom (1990: 89, 21018)
thought that successful maintenance of a commons requires fairly homogen-

ous users. Governing the commons is concerned with maintaining a com-
mon pool resource, it does not explain how the resource is mobilized in the
rst place. This is a major question in the case of a currency union which, after
all, is not a natural nite resource like a piece of land that is used by the village
community for grazing their cattle. The answer is found here in the
by-product theory of collective action which traces the provision of a common
good back to the selective incentives or special interests of those who pro-
duced it (Olson 1971: 1325).
The third section spells out the four most important collective action prob-
lems facing parties that would like to cooperate in their own interest. Institu-
tions may solve some problems but neglect others. For instance, the policy
architecture of the EA emphasizes the prevention of moral hazard in the guise
of scal proigacy at the cost of reduced insurance of member states against
the spillovers of nancial instability. There is a tension between the solutions
to these two collective action problems (moral hazard and externalities).
Prioritizing one over the other reveals underlying power constellations and
keeps political contestation in a monetary union alive.
The chapter closes with a section on forms of risk sharing that are relevant
for a political economy of account: whether it concerns redistribution or
stabilization and risk sharing ex ante (insurance) or ex post (compensation).
The hypothesis is that different combinations of these forms pose different
problems for collective action.
2.1 The Puzzle of Rational Cooperation
How can we explain the cooperation between national democracies, espe-

cially when they are different and unequal? In democracies, the legitimation
of government depends on winning domestic elections, and this is not neces-
sarily facilitated by compromising with foreign governments. For cooper-
ation, more resourceful countries have to give smaller or poorer countries,
possibly with opposing views, a say in the conduct of their affairs; less
resourceful countries have to allow others to meddle in their affairs with
their consent. There is, of course, the empirical observation that international
agreements and international organizations have mushroomed since the early
1980s (Drezner 2013: 284). Administrations seem to be ready to formulate
cooperative plans, although compliance is more difcult. Inside and outside
academia, many think that cooperative agreements between formally sover-
eign nations cannot endure or be effective. The bluff of organized hypocrisy
that characterizes sovereign statehood (Krasner 2013: 352) must be called,
sooner or later, if decision makers are rational. The more powerful nations
32
will not let themselves be restrained forever, while smaller, weaker nations
may free ride on the collective good provided by others so long as it is costly to
punish their non-cooperation.
Two classic contributions to international political economy tried to solve
this puzzle of rational cooperation. Against the background of diminishing US
dominance, Axelrod (1984) and Keohane (1984) explained why cooperation
and compliance with international commitments may prevail and even
increase. The loss of hierarchy as a solution had led realist scholars and
policymakers to expect a breakdown in cooperation and compliance. Both
Axelrod and Keohane asked whether it is possible to explain interstate cooper-
ation based on an instrumental notion of rationality, meaning a consistent
and effective use of means to further ones self-interested (here: national)
goals. The assumption of rationality is a methodological device to address
the realist challenge and construct a robust argument about the possibility
of international policy cooperation. It is not a substantive claim about the
individual behavior of decision makers.
Axelrod (1984) undertook an experiment in which eminent scholars, many
of them students of rational choice theory, were asked to nd a robust strategy
for surviving in a world of rational egoists. A non-cooperative strategy was
expected to prevail and the only question was how smart each player had to be
in order to outperform other egoists. But a simple tit-for-tat strategy beginning
with cooperation, proposed by the mathematical psychologist Anatol Rapo-
port, was the most successful survival strategy. Axelrod (1984) then went on to
show that this individually rational behavior can explain the social evolution
of cooperation at the macro level. Computer simulations demonstrated that
an individual player who cooperates and reciprocates can survive and prevail
in most interactions with other rational strategies. While articial, the setting
is less unrealistic for the case of interstate cooperation than for interaction
between individuals: in economic diplomacy generally and in the various
Council formations of the EU specically, entire teams of civil servants are
engaged in repeated interactions for which they devise bargaining and retali-
ation strategies.
Keohane (1984: 78, 107) proposed that, even when they rationally pursue
their national interest, governments still manage to commit to joint provision
of international public goods, such as managed trade or more stable exchange
rates, after hegemony. In the benign version of Kindleberger (1973), hege-
monic powers can solve the collective action problem of sovereign states,
primarily by bribing them into cooperation and paying the lions share of
the cost of international public goods. Eichengreens (1987) historical explor-
ation of British and American hegemony suggested, however, that very rarely
is hegemonic power so overwhelming that the hegemon can take decisions
and implement them without the cooperation of second-tier nations. This has
33
been the situation of Germanys reluctant hegemony (Bulmer and Paterson

2013) in the EA: its political leverage and its scal capacity are too small to
stabilize the monetary union single handedly. Chapters 57 provide repeated
examples where the German government either sought agreement with like-
minded nations like the Netherlands and Finland before it took action, or
struck deals with France in order to pre-empt lengthy negotiations at the EU
level. Furthermore, even if the dominant power can muscle others into agree-
ment, compliance with the agreement can still be a problem. Fiscal surveil-
lance is a case in point (see Section 2.2.1). This was also the experience of
coordinated US dollarDMYen stabilization as an alternative to European
exchange rate stabilization, which was never very successful (Putnam and
Henning 1989).
Keohanes after-hegemony setting is therefore still relevant in the present
context: governments are aware of their interdependence in a world struc-
tured by sovereign statehood, and they pursue their national interest through
rational cooperation. This setting is analogous to market exchange in the
model of atomistic or monopolistic competition.1 It is a particularly testing
ground for the provision of public goods, given that standard economic
theory proposes that competitive actors incentives alone will not bring
about a welfare-maximizing general equilibrium that produces the efcient
amount of public goods. Keohanes approach does not exclude the possibility
that additional extra-rational motivations for coordination are present,
such as moral imperatives or benets from mere participation, but it does
not rely on these motivations (Hardin 1982: 10124; Keohane 1984: 11032).
In a similar vein, this study tries to explain manifestations of monetary
solidarity in line with rational nationalism. If solidarity can be found even
under this adverse behavioral assumption, it is more convincing than if the
creation, maintenance, and evolution of international regimes such as a
monetary union rests on assumptions about the public interest or the
General Will (Keohane 1984: 107). Obviously, extra-rational motivations
can play a role, such as the commitment to lasting peace in Europe, a feeling
of historical guilt on the part of Germany, or the attempt to establish a
counterweight to the United States. But the nding of monetary solidarity
should not rely on such arguments. They are idiosyncratic and cannot inform
a general politicaleconomic theory of monetary integration.
There are also substantive reasons for assuming rationality in the present
context. Monetary integration, both the common currency and the particular
institutions needed to make it viable, has been introduced partly to compensate
1
It is presumably for this reason that the AxelrodKeohane strand of international political
economy is called neoliberal institutionalism (Drezner 2013: 282), but this is a rather confusing use
of the term neoliberal.
34
for perceived weaknesses and aws of national democracies, notably their

alleged ination and decit biases (Schelkle 2006: 6802). This has earned the
EA, just like the EU as a whole, the perennial charge of having a democratic
decit.2 While not a false accusation, it misses an important point: the demo-
cratic decit is the ip side of the attempt to mend decits of national democ-
racy. It does so by committing elected governments to policies that can be
rationally justied as in the common interest and hence are not easily changed
by shifting national majorities or domestic special interests. In a union of
mature democracies, national action is contested and constrained in several
ways (Moravcsik 2002: 60710). Governments must convince their partners of
the validity of a position or line of action, but must also convince domestic
constituencies that any agreement is in the national interest. There is thus a
political process that makes the management of the union and domestic affairs
subject to deliberations based on generalizable self-interested arguments. The
rational framing of policy agendas is a signature of the EU, leaving the wider
public somewhat cold.
The solution to the puzzle of rational cooperation must therefore lie in
interest constellations at home and abroad as well as institutions that sustain
incentives to cooperate. The latter relates the work on interstate cooperation to
work on international organizations (Goldstein and Steinberg 2010). As the
subtitle of Keohane (1984) indicates, discord rather than harmony is a reliable
trigger for governments seeking agreements with other governments. The oper-
ation of the Franco-German axis is a case in point; the two administrations
usually represent opposing views that are openly expressed. But they are also
determined to nd an agreement in which most other member states will nd
their position more or less represented. Franco-German discord can therefore
help to reduce the number of negotiators and speed up decisions (Heipertz and
Verdun 2004: 149; Schelkle 2012a). But the compromise also has to be institu-
tionalized, to replace discretionary decision making by two member states with
routines and procedures in which other member states have a say.
Rationality implies that key actors seek cooperation only if this is necessary
for achieving the results they care about. Exchange rate stabilization was his-
torically a prime example of such instrumental cooperation. Even the Bundes-
bank could not achieve stability in the D-Mark exchange rate without the
cooperation of other countries. From its beginnings in the 1970s, cooperation
on exchange rate stabilization and later on monetary policy became densely
institutionalized. This institutional density is typically the result of tightening
the commitment to cooperation, countering the tendency of rational actors
to evade commitments opportunistically in response to changing incentives.
2
See Moravcsik (2002) as well as Follesdal and Hix (2006) for a stimulating debate of the EUs
democratic decit. Chapter 10 reects on this debate in Section 10.3.1.
35
The Bundesbank was accused of pursuing its stabilization goals without regard
to other members in the ERM; Italian and French policymakers were accused of
being not as resolute in price stabilization as a stable exchange rate grid would
require. This conict came to a head in 19923 when the rejection of the
Maastricht Treaty in a Danish referendum triggered a major currency crisis
(Section 5.1.1). It was thought at the time that it would spell the end of the
monetary integration project. Instead, German governments (under conserva-
tive chancellors) insisted on strict scal rules in return for giving up monetary
autonomy (Jacoby 2015: 198; Schelkle 2009).
Cooperation thus became deeply entrenched, which is an international
trend beyond European integration (Drezner 2013: table 13.1; Henning, 2017
for the EA). The question then becomes one of institutional choice (Drezner
2013: 284). In the present context this question is: why are particular institu-
tions of risk sharing created or strengthened but not others? Increasing com-
plexity is likely to bring back the problem of asymmetric power that thick or
dense institutions are meant to rein in: the stronger are likely to wield their
power and prioritize the institutional devices that suit their interests best.
Chapters 6 and 7 on the evolution of economic governance during the crisis
can show that increasing complexity was indeed a feature of reforms, in par-
ticular in scal surveillance; and Germany was assertive, especially in the set-up
of institutions outside the Treaty,3 yet there was also considerable resistance
and non-compliance that undermined German dominance subsequently.
Risk sharing is a possible rationale of European monetary integration, sup-
ported by economic research since around the 1990s. But a rationale is not
necessarily a practice, enshrined in empirically observable institutions.
Indeed, rationality of policymakers sometimes prevents the risk-sharing
potential of a diverse union from being exploited fully. For instance, failure
to provide a collective good is often due to the fact that the parties involved do
not trust the other sides reliability or capacity to honor the agreement. This
can have many causes, from personal trustworthiness of populist leaders to
the weakness of support in a politically polarized democracy. Diversity is
among those reasons: the sheer lack of familiarity with the ways other political
economies work can create a residual mistrust that only obvious economic
success, the endorsement by markets, can suppress. These many sources of
skepticism or outright mistrust imply that we cannot conclude from a plaus-
ible, and even desirable, rationale for cooperation that it will become the
outcome of rational action.4
3
Bickerton et al. (2015) analyze such institutions outside the Treaty as manifestations of a new
intergovernmentalism.
4
This is of course a point that historical institutionalism has emphasized (Hall and Taylor 1996:
9412).
36
This qualication should make clear, nally, that this conceptualization of

rational cooperation is not to be confounded with a public-choice view of the
world in which policymakers actions are derived from individual utility
maximization. This would be a fallacy of composition because neither in
politics nor in economics can we infer macrobehavior from micro-
motives, as Thomas Schelling (1978) put it.5 Schelling (1978) systematically
explained why individually rational pursuits can lead to aggregate outcomes
that are in nobodys rational interest (Hardin 1982: 13). Conversely, Axelrod
(1984) analyzed in detail how a cooperative strategy fares if confronted with
other, less cooperative strategies; the evolutionary success of the former was
evidence for its rationality as macrobehavior. The methodological assump-
tion of rationality that this study adopts requires that monetary solidarity is
compatible with the rationality of relevant actors. But this compatibility does
not imply a rationally desirable, functionalist outcome because such out-
comes are beyond any actors control.
2.2 The By-Product Theory of Collective Action
Exchange rate management and even more the move to a single currency and
integrated nancial markets require sustained cooperation between adminis-
trations of formally sovereign nation states. Joining the European monetary
union was and is voluntary, decided by democratically elected governments
and not imposed by hegemonic or colonial rule. In fact, the only potentially
hegemonic member state, Germany, had to be convinced to take part and
then used its veto player position to get concessions, in line with its ideo-
logical leanings but also in order to appease domestic opposition. Even so,
governments in other member states pressed on with monetary union. This
coming together of member states with very different interests and positions
as regards exchange rate management appears as a major puzzle today, given
that almost every explanation of the EA crisis rests on the verdict that the
union is too diverse to be able to function.6 Three lines of argument are
particularly relevant.
Proponents of an optimal currency area, including political economists
such as Moravcsik (2012) and Scharpf (2015), see too little convergence on
exible labor and competitive product markets as a cause of the crisis. This
5
Concluding directly from micro motives to macro behavior is a common fallacy in neoclassical
(Walrasian) economics, as shown by Kirman (1989): well-behaved individual excess demand
functions do not yield well-behaved excess demand functions in the aggregate. The mainstream
economists quest for micro foundations of all market behavior is therefore rather questionable.
6
Exceptions include contributors to the edited volume of Caporaso and Rhodes (2016), notably
Erik Jones and Randall Henning, as well as the remarkable book by Martin Sandbu (2015).
37
diagnosis has been challenged by scholars in the same tradition: even if labor
and product markets are not fully exible, asymmetric or asynchronous
shocks to output could be absorbed by integrated and diversied nancial
markets, and possibly a central budget, shielding consumption from volatility
(Chapter 3 and Section 6.2.1).
Scholars of different varieties of capitalism, by contrast, see incompatible
growth regimes as the problem in a monetary union that favors the coordin-
ated market economies of Northern Europe (Iversen et al. 2016; Hall 2014a;
Hanck 2013). The difculty with this explanation is, in short, that it must
assume that some countries have consistent (non-inationary, high-
productivity) institutional regimes while others have inconsistent regimes
from which only exchange rate adjustment can provide some relief. This
is hard to reconcile with the underlying theory of institutional comple-
mentarities and also does not entirely square with the comparative evidence:
Ireland, Spain, and Cyprus do not t the diagnosis (Section 6.2.2).
The ideational school in comparative political economy is slightly different
in its diagnosis in that it sees an ideologically driven uniformity imposed on a
diversity of member states as the cause of the EAs malaise (Matthijs and Blyth
2015; Matthijs and McNamara 2015). The problem with this diagnosis is that
it sees more uniformity than we should expect from its own underlying theory
of varied norms and social practices resisting one market logic. It ignores
exibility in the EA framework which actually sustains varied norms and
practices (Chapter 5).
This book starts from the principle and time-honored practice of insurance
to argue that diversity of members provides an economic opportunity for
diversifying risks (Imbs and Mauro 2007; Lewis 1996). For example, asynchron-
ous business cycles allow a members economy in a downturn to benet from
high demand in another members economy that is in an upturn, without the
distorting effect of exchange rate moves that follow a nancial market logic.
Or, to take the example that motivated European currency unication: it
allows members to pool the risks of different potentials for growth and instabil-
ity. The high growth potential of poorer economies, stymied by a high-risk
premium, can be realized if they can benet from the low interest rate that
richer member states with low growth potential bestow on the union; this
creates expanding markets for the latter and thus raises their own growth
potential. The rst step of the counter-argument is therefore that diversity as
such cannot explain economic problems of a heterogeneous union.
This shifts the need for an explanation, second, to the question of why the
potential for risk diversication is not realized. There is not much evidence
that member states were aware of this potential when policymakers embarked
on the road to Maastricht. What is clear is that exchange rate instability after
the breakdown of Bretton Woods and the higher frequency of currency crises
38
that came with nancial liberalization were a main motivation for European
monetary integration. The Delors report opens with statements to that effect
(Committee 1989: paras 1 and 5), and later quantitative and qualitative
research conrmed that currency instability was a major concern of policy-
makers. Instability occurred at a higher frequency after 1973 although it also
became less severe (Bordo et al. 2001: 567; James 2012: 4, 12). In the ERM,
governments were repeatedly drawn into acrimonious negotiations over par-
ity adjustments and burden sharing as regards policy responses. Yet this is not
evidence that they sought risk sharing through monetary integration. The
evidence suggests that the governments involved wanted above all to get rid
of exchange rate volatility as a source of economic instability and political
humiliation (Section 5.1.1). The question therefore is how risk sharing
emerges if it is not the prime intention of elected ofcials.
2.2.1 Origins in the Logic of Collective Action

Monetary solidaritydeliberate and institutionalized sharing of risks that can
afict members of a monetary unionis a collective action problem. Denom-
inating payments and incomes, assets and liabilities in a single currency
inherently creates a risk pool for liquidity shocks. A stable currency that
delivers low interest rates by sharing liquidity risks also reduces the risks to
insolvency that debtor-investors, but also creditors, incur. But explaining how
risk sharing comes about runs into the problem of endless regress: Institutions
resolve collective action problems, but institutions themselves are public
goods, meaning that their origins are subject to the same dilemmas they are
meant to resolve (Broz 1998: 231). The effort to create a stable currency came
on the back of existing efforts to stabilize exchange rates. Government
nances, wage bargains, and price setting of rms can all contribute to or
obstruct the stability of a currency and exchange rates. There are substantial
free-riding incentives: even those who do not contribute to stability cannot be
excluded from the diffuse benets of a hard currencylow interest rates, low
ination, high liquidity. Excessive public decits by a few small member states,
too high or too low collective wage agreements in a few sectors and regions, or
indeed buoyant mortgage credit growth in a few regions previously starved of
long-term household nance, are each not enough to jeopardize the stability of
a currency. But cumulatively their effects may be fatal, and anticipating the free
riding of some may undermine the willingness of all to cooperate.
The account of the logic of collective action developed by Mancur Olson
(1971) provides at least two theories of how the various stakeholders of a
single currency could overcome this problem (Broz 1998: 2345). First, the
benets from the common currency may accrue disproportionately to some
stakeholders, the privileged group. They therefore go ahead and provide it,
39
not concerned by the free riding of the rest. This model is hard to reconcile
with the evidence in Moravcsik (1998) and Dyson and Featherstone (1999) of
how the euro came about. Highly indebted and/or inationary countries like
Belgium and Italy had the greatest benets to expect from low ination and
low interest rates. The enormous adjustments they madea constitutional
mechanism for debt reduction in Belgium, massive labor market reforms and
tax hikes in Italyrevealed their preferences beyond doubt. But they were not
in a position to bring about the common currency. By contrast, the German
government was in a position to veto or endorse the common currency but
it could not expect great benets from giving up the D-Mark. Hence, the
German government insisted on safeguards against free riding and on com-
mitment to stability-oriented behavior to be proven in a drawn-out qualica-
tion process. It intended to limit risk sharing to the common central bank
issuing the single currency. It is no wonder that Majone (2016: 21820) sees a
damning verdict on the Economic and Monetary Union in Olsons logic, but
he takes only Olsons preferred privileged group approach into account.
The evidence provided by the historical accounts (and beyond) is more
compatible with a second theory that explains collective action as a joint or
by-product of private rent seeking (Olson 1971: 1325). This applies when the
distribution of benets is not unequal enough to make a select group provide
the collective good; the private benets are dispersed but they cannot be
enjoyed without providing the collective good. This ts the case of monetary
solidarity fairly well: the benets of a common currency are varied, public and
private, supranational and national. The private and national benets were
central to Moravcsiks (1998: 3816) liberal intergovernmentalist interpret-
ation. Collignon and Schwarzer (2002) document the advocacy of organized
transnational business interests, and there is also evidence that organized
labor in export-oriented sectors was in favor so as to prevent competitive
devaluations, an account that is supported by a functionalist rationale in
Iversen et al. (2016). The motivations of political elites were presumably
more idiosyncratic: French policymakers hoped to get on a more equal footing
with Germany and the United States; Italians and Belgians used it as a reform
lever for an unsustainable domestic political economy; modernist Europhile
elites in Greece, Portugal, and Spain sought to stabilize the young democracies
through catch-up growth. The overlap of these aspirations was the common
currency. By default, it allowed risk sharing on liquidity shocks that would
otherwise drive up national risk premia.
This theory of collective action generally and monetary solidarity specic-
ally is decidedly not functionalist. Collective action problems may be solved
as a by-product of private incentives, but the solutions are not necessarily well
designed, given that the wider benets from collective interest representation
are not what motivated the production of the common good. This is a
40
problem for continuing cooperation. Hardin (1982: 35) calls it a perverse

aspect of the by-product theory that there is only a tenuous connection
between a groups interest and what the organization based on selective
incentives does for that interest. In the present context, this means that
while the EA members have a collective interest in risk sharing, the monetary
union might cater to it only by accident or default, if at all. The theory does
not lead us to expect sustained monetary solidarity even if it can explain why
it may be a joint product with private/national benets. This puts the onus on
the researcher to show not only that the joint product exists but also how it
has been institutionalized to ensure ongoing cooperation.
An example of risk sharing by default is the integration of government bond
markets, supported by market forces and by a single monetary policy
(Section 5.2.2). There was also accidental risk sharing on a grand and
unexpected scale through the cross-border payments system TARGET, notably
the risk of a sudden stop of capital ows but also the ight of deposits and even
the catastrophic risk of a break-up of the EA (Section 9.2). For each of these
(and other) examples, it has to be shown how risk sharing by default and by
accident can become deliberate and morph into monetary solidarity. This is
the case when the inherent capacity comes to the fore and is acknowledged,
endorsed, or at least tolerated without fundamental change. Such transform-
ation into monetary solidarity is not assured and there will also be plenty of
examples in which the potential for risk sharing does not materialize. For
instance, the Quantitative Easing (Asset Purchase) program of the ECB,
which started in early 2015, ofcially conned risk sharing to the (smaller)
share of bonds that were taken on the ECBs books, excluding those that
national central banks held at their own risk (ECB 2016). Again, monetary
solidarity was a side effect of crisis management, but in this case it was
consciously limited.
This seems to support, once again, Monnets famous dictum that Europe
will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those
crises.7 This statement is often interpreted as evidence for functional spill-
over: when the need arises, it will be fullled with further steps of integration.
But there may also be dysfunctional spillover (Schmidt 2015: 367). Risk
sharing that is the outcome of crisis management is not necessarily the most
functional solution; it may be the result of ad hoc measures that favor the
powerful. This jeopardizes future compliance: uneven distributional conse-
quences may make members resentful, and lead them to openly defy or
silently neglect their obligations. The Fiscal Compact, a hardened stability
and growth pact imposed on other member states at the height of the crisis in
7
LEurope se fera dans les crises et elle sera la somme des solutions apportes ces crises
(Monnet 1976).
41
201011, is a pertinent exampleit has been obstructed, silently, even by the

Commission (Section 7.2.1). In this, the Compact joins the litany of reforms
to scal surveillance that made this annual policy process ever more complex
but neither effective nor legitimate (Schelkle 2009): it is seen as a German
obsession and a hypocritical one at that since German governments also had
difculties, before and in the monetary union, of meeting the scal rules
themselves.
The prophecy of one of the fathers of European integration is therefore
more appropriately called Monnets curse. It is not fate, however; Parsons and
Matthijs (2015) challenge the generality of its claim and argue that major steps
in European integration were political choices and not foisted onto govern-
ments by crisis. In a union of democracies, it is unlikely that the institutional
outcome of parochial power politics will stand; more sophisticated power
politics will prevail, so long as it can command a minimum of loyalty and
collaboration from others. The real test for monetary solidarity is therefore
whether what has been introduced under extreme circumstances survives,
and possibly adapts institutionally once there is a return to normal times.
2.2.2 Governing a Commons

Elinor Ostroms (1990) work can be combined with the by-product theory of
how common goods are created, to explain how the common good can be
maintained. Her contribution to institutional economics and public adminis-
tration was stimulated by the dismal prediction that when an exhaustible
resource is collectively owned, it must inevitably lead to a tragedy of the
commons (Hardin 1968). She challenged the public-choice view that only
private ownership or central government control can deliver sustainable usage
of resources (Bermeo 2010). In fact, Ostrom (1990: 956) saw monitoring
others use of a collectively owned resource as a by-product of using this
resource, individually and collectively, in a sustainable manner. Successful
governing of the commons means providing monitoring as a joint product
which is self-enforcing because it is tied to the private benet.
The notion of a common pool resource has been taken up by scholars
working on budgetary institutions in European member states soon after the
Stability Pact was devised (Hallerberg and von Hagen 1997). It has the following
features.
A common pool resource cannot exclude (excessive) users easily, and is in
this respect similar to a public good and unlike a private or a club good.
But the use of a common pool resource is rival, that is the resource is
depletable and in this respect similar to a private good (Ostrom 1990: 32;
Snidal 1995: 50).
42
In contrast to club goods, the problem of depletion by users with legitimate

access remains a collective action problem. The theory of clubs (Buchanan
1965) shows how they achieve optimal access to prevent congestion.
The two concepts of an exhaustible commons and a collective good meet in

the theoretical possibility that a common property can end up being badly
used, even though this is in nobodys rational interest. Collective action to
monitor the use of the commons is thus of the essence or it will end in tragedy:
depletion.
The policy architecture of the EA can be rationalized in terms of Ostroms
theory of governing a commons, but it requires some adaptation of the
original context.8 The common good to be preserved is a hard, stable currency,
although there are different views about how to do this (McNamara 1998;
Pisani-Ferry 2006). Overuse and depletion of the commons in this context
would mean euro-denominated debt being issued excessively, although,
again, how this excess is to be determined remains contested (Heipertz and
Verdun 2004). Depletion could come in two guises: the central bank would
have to come to the rescue of a large defaulting debtor, typically thought to be
a government, or suppress the high real interest rate by issuing more euros
than is compatible with price stability (Brunila et al. 2001; Issing 2002). The
incentives are there: each government can reap the full benet of each
monetary unit issued while it bears only a fraction of the costs in terms of
additional ination or a rise in the risk premium for all. The governance
framework put the central bank under strict prohibition of nancing govern-
ments directly and imposed strict scal rules, with the Commission as the
monitor. The monetary union is conspicuously set up to avoid the tragedy of a
common currency.
A high quality of the currency, in the sense of an international medium of
payment and a stable reference point for transactions, can be seen as the
common property to be preserved. The quality of a currency is created and
maintained in ways analogous to the quality of land and is in that sense akin
to an exhaustible commons. The architects of the euro tried to achieve quality
by establishing institutional safeguards. But these institutional safeguards
have not withstood a systemic crisis: in fact, it can be argued that the safe-
guards were misleading in their focus on public debt and counterproductive in
their restraint on the central bank, even under the most adverse of circum-
stances (Section 6.2.3).
The quality of a currency is ultimately judged in nancial markets which
makes the monitoring of the commons even more difcult. Anticipating
market responses can mean keeping the money supply relatively scarce even
8
See Raudla (2010) for a critical review of the literature on budgetary commons.
43
if the economy is stagnating, or it can mean going for growth and expanding
the money supply in line with expanding credit demand. This is a dening
conict in macroeconomic stabilization that also ared up time and again
in US monetary-nancial history (Bordo and Wheelock 2011: 8, 1416;
Chapter 4). Neoclassically minded economists, traditionally housed on the
top oor of the Bundesbank and in the Dutch nance ministry, support tight
money while the more Keynesian-minded economists, inhabiting the City of
London and the French bureaucracy, advocate elastic credit. While the former
fear overexpansion with inationary consequences, the latter fear undue
restraint with adverse effects on economic growth. In modern central bank-
ing, this conict between tight money and elastic credit can be reconciled but
there is still room for legitimate debate between hawks and doves. Ostrom
(1990: 18) acknowledged this: The herders can overestimate or underesti-
mate the carrying capacity of the meadow.
The framing of EA governance as a potential tragedy of the commons leads
monitors to look for free riding and exploitation of a common resource, despite
legitimately different views on how to use and preserve the commons. The
budgetary institutions literature, with its focus on the common resource pool
problem, demonstrates this bias (Hallerberg et al. 2009: 35; for an extension to
the ECB see Dinger et al. 2014). This is more down the line of Garrett Hardin
(1968) than of Elinor Ostrom (1990). Economically sensible monitoring should
ensure that excessive use of the common resource of money creation is
restrained but also that sufcient use creates desirable welfare.
Chapter 6 on the EA crisis and Chapter 7 on the institutional reforms since
the crisis argue that the risk-sharing capacity of the monetary union has been
underexploited. This argument is not derived from some ideal of a complete
and genuine union, as two major EU reports put it (van Rompuy et al. 2012,
Juncker et al. 2015), but from an understanding of what would be minimally
required to resolve the current crisis, specically by interrupting the negative
feedback loop between the insolvency of banks and sovereigns. However, it
has to be granted that the EA has managed to create and maintain a hard and
stable currency. This has come at the cost of almost any other consideration,
and particularly at the cost of more growth (Section 7.1). A stable currency was
the interest of all members that signed up to the EA. But the actual institu-
tional choices were more in the interest of some countries than others as many
observers noted: in those of Germany above all but also the Benelux countries
and Finland, as well as some Central and Eastern European countries where
governments tend to be scally conservative. If geopolitical entities are of very
different weight, diplomatic mobilization, the threat of retaliation, or feed-
back effects are unlikely to achieve collective action that, for instance, the
creation of a joint debt instrument (Eurobond) would require. Advancing
44
monetary solidarity between unequal partners remains a challenge, especially

if it relies on being produced as a by-product of other primary motivations.
Lisa Martin (2001) explored in detail how cooperation can be sustained
under circumstances of heterogeneous membership. She argued that the EA
as set up for normal times is characterized by two institutional features: the
facilitation of stable linkages across issues, and disproportionately large bar-
gaining power of small states (Martin 2001: 137). The stable linkages are
provided by the overlap of the Single Market and the monetary union. Tightly
administered programs like cohesion policy or the common agricultural pol-
icy provide another stable linkage: they provide compensation to less
advanced countries and regions for having to keep their borders open to
competitors. The disproportionate inuence of smaller states is ensured by
closing down opportunities for exible integration and prevention of opt-outs
(Martin 2001: 13843). They can then exploit their veto power in the choice
of institutions which requires unanimity, while ongoing bargaining when
they are already roped in weakens their inuence due to qualied majority
voting. Proposals for more exible integration that, for instance, a number of
contributors to Chalmers et al. (2016a) propose, are likely to weaken the
institutional position of smaller member states: they can be sidelined as
their consent is not necessarily required while the more inuential member
states have, by denition, the means to garner support from loyal partners.
Another way to maintain the commons is with a dedicated, professional
monitoring system. The European Commission can play a role in fostering
common pool resources. The Commission is an institution of political entre-
preneurship, meaning that it is set up to nd it in their private interest to
work to provide collective benets to relevant groups (Hardin 1982: 35).
More integration and delegated monitoring of the commons is the profes-
sional pursuit of EU ofcials, serving the organizational interest of the agency.
Political entrepreneurship proceeds by seeking out the overlapping interests
in member states agendas. Traditionally, this was seen as a role of the Com-
mission. It used to be quite effective in overcoming the joint decision trap of
institutional choice that Fritz Scharpf formalized as a major problem of
ongoing EU governance. As he later noted, the EU escaped this trap to an
almost concerning degree, namely by what he called the supranational hier-
archical mode of governance (Scharpf 2006: 851) that exercise[s] policy-
making functions without any involvement of politically accountable actors
in the Council or the European Parliament. Interestingly, though, in the
crisis since 2008, it has been the ECB rather than the Commission that has
played the role of a political entrepreneur that urges governments to collective
action (Schelkle 2014a). The central bank provided the collective benet of
keeping the nancial system aoat and could thus preserve the infrastructure
45
for its monetary policy. Yet, this reghting left the ECB uncomfortably
exposed to political criticism and contestation (Section 7.2.3).
2.3 Political Market Failures
Collective action failures between formally sovereign nation states are analyt-
ically similar to market failures (Keohane 1984: 85100). Elected governments
represent their constituencies and pursue their interests as they perceive them,
with uncertain degrees of consideration for other governments in a similar
position. Rationally and nationally pursued self-interest can obstruct mutu-
ally benecial cooperation because the contracting parties cannot ascertain
how well they can protect their interests (for example, because they lack well-
dened property rights, relevant information, or do not trust the others
commitment). Political market failure is compounded by incomplete bargain-
ing frameworks and endemic commitment problems in democracies, where
the original contracting party is bound to change.
This political market failure approach has been accused of downplaying the
distributive concerns that governments may have when they contemplate
cooperation with others (Mearsheimer 2010: 4025). The critics have a
point. It is an implication of the rationality assumption: rational actors should
be concerned about their absolute and not their relative gains when they
consider joining or sustaining a cooperative arrangement. The realist alterna-
tive is succinctly formulated by Grieco (1988: 600), who rst brought this
point to wider attention: states prefer that relative achievements of jointly
produced gains not advantage partners, and their concerns about relative
gains may constrain their willingness to cooperate. Concerns over the coun-
trys position in the fragile balance of powers, rather than material gain, may
make or break cooperation. The inherent assumption of the original market
failure conceptualization was, by contrast, that interstate cooperation makes
the overall pie grow, and there is an incentive to cooperate so long as every
country shares to some indeterminate degree in these gains. The distributive
struggle is not completely neglected but each country is assumed to be less
concerned with shares than with the absolute gains. Moreover, payoffs can
comprise different kinds of economic gain, while realist scholarship requires
payoffs to be measurable in the currency of power, by which the relative gain
is estimated.
In subsequent formulations of rational cooperation between states, the
uneven distribution of gains is seen as a potential lever for continuing cooper-
ation. The point of issue linkages and package deals is exactly that negotiating
governments ask for compensation in one area in return for concessions in
another. Martin (2001: 135) recalls the request by new members of the EU in
46
the late 1980s, led by Spain, to receive additional regional aid in return for
their consent to the Maastricht Treaty on the Single Market and the monetary
union. The Cohesion Fund was introduced on more generous terms than
had been available before, and provided absolute gains for Greece, Ireland,
Portugal, and Spain which had national incomes of 90 percent or less of the
EU average at the time. The realist interpretation of this deal would suggest
that it corrected for the relative advantage that the further opening of borders
and the enlargement of the trade bloc handed to the old member states, then
the Western European core. But material gains from regional aid for the public
purse, trade gains for the private sector, and status gains in the international
economic arena have very different valuations in the currency of power. It
would seem more straightforward and politically intuitive to explain the case
of interstate cooperation among diverse members as balancing different kinds
of absolute economic gains.
Two types of economic and political market failures were the focus of
attention in Keohane (1984: 85): externalities and asymmetric information.
He thought that commitment problems could actually be solved more easily
thanks to rational expectations, lowering of transaction costs, and repetition
which all institution building involves (Keohane 1984: 1009). This hypoth-
esis for normal times, in which rules and routines are available, may be turned
on its head under stress: commitments can be much more problematic if the
insurance contract was implicit and is drawn upon for the rst time; in fact,
the fortunate may deny that they have a commitment. Recent contributions
have also added the insight that behavioral problems of misperception pre-
vent actors from pursuing their best self-interest, a point that Keohane (1984:
108) readily conceded.
Table 2.1 gives an overview of four types of political market failure and then
takes off from the last column to give examples of collective action failures in
monetary integration. Moss (2002: 3649) and Barr (2012: 8399) contain
superb treatments of the various failures of private cooperation in and
through markets that are here applied to sovereigns.9
2.3.1 Externalities
Externalities or spillovers are everywhere: the sheer fact of interdependence
brings them about. For instance, the growth of one country uses up resources
that cannot be enjoyed by others and the environmental damage done in
recent centuries suggests that this resource depletion was not adequately
priced. This allowed risks like pollution to be shifted onto other, notably less
9
Readers may jump to Table 2.1 and return to it as a summary, but it may also be helpful as a
dense preview.
47
Table 2.1. Overview of economic and political market failures
What is the problem? Why do markets (partially Why does interstate

or completely) fail? cooperation (partially or
completely) fail?
Externalities (a) interdependence that True costs (negative Underprovision of public

is not acknowledged externalities) or true goods (positive
(b) ill-dened property benets (positive externalities in
rights that allow risk externalities) are not consumption);
shifting reected in prices and overexploitation of
(c) feedback loops from can therefore not be resources (tragedy of
responses to others traded efciently the commons);
behavior that are regressive risk shifting
destabilizing on the weaker members
Asymmetric Raises aggregate risk in Good risks may withdraw Both problems raise
information the pool: from market or alleged aggregate risk in the
(a) adverse selection: bad risks may be pool which makes
hidden information discriminated against; potential members
about the true risk ex underinsurance is the unwilling to join or limit
ante consequence in either risk sharing for fear of
(b) moral hazard: hidden case interdependence
information about risk-
taking behavior ex post
Lack of Dynamic inconsistency of Private insurance of highly Cooperation is not
commitment behavior: promises of a correlated current risks credible (a) because of
course of action are not is not credible because government incentives
compatible with insurer cannot promise or (b) because of
incentives in the future; to not default dilemma of government
leads to underinsurance responsiveness to
domestic actors
Misperception Behavior under Systematic biases lead to Mutually benecial
uncertainty uses over- or cooperation may be
heuristic devices that underinsurance; vulnerable to populist
are not compatible with prudent insurance campaigns based on
instrumental rationality suppliers may be driven biased framing and
and subjective utility out by reckless misperceptions of other
maximization; can be providers; good risks countries
exploited among insurance
seekers may withdraw
from market
Source: Own compilation, inspired by Moss (2002: 3652)
developed countries, which did not benet from the wealth that the pollution
undoubtedly also generated. Herding behavior, creating market panics, is a
leading example of an externality arising when, under uncertainty, the behav-
ior of one actor triggers others to behave in a similar way, each trying to evade
negative consequences if they do so in time but everybody aggravating the
situation for themselves and others. This externality was at work in the EA
crisis (and in nancial instability in US history as well, as Section 4.2 shows
repeatedly): a negative feedback loop evolves when banks face a funding
shortage and need government support, this weakens public nances which
lowers credit ratings and raises risk premia on government bonds, which then
48
weakens the balance sheets of banks holding these bonds as supposedly safe
assets, creating further funding problems (Brunnermeier and Sannikov 2013:
3668; Farhi and Tirole 2014; Section 6.2.3).
Externalities can be positive as well as negative. Either way, rational gov-
ernments, answerable for their policies to domestic parliaments and local
media, have little reason to take the concerns of their neighbors into account.
They will produce too little of the good externalities and too much of the bad.
An example of a potential positive externality is counter-cyclical scal policies
in the EA (Fitoussi et al. 1993; Schelkle 2012b: 1414). In interdependent
economies, rational nationalists can count on stimulus by other states to
spill over into their economies, above all through their neighbors increased
demand for exports. Yet, if all choose to rely on expansionary measures of
others, hoping to save the scal cost of a stimulus, too little active demand
management is the result. As already mentioned, fear of the opposite, nega-
tive, externality prevailed at the time the EA architecture was built: that once
in the common currency area, governments would incur excessive public
debt. Their national bond issue would not drive up interest rates as much in
an enlarged and unied bond market as in a smaller national market. Thus,
excessive borrowers shift the cost in terms of rising interest rates partly on
others. If these incentives work in several member states, overissue is the
result, exhausting the commons of low interest rates and creditworthiness.
The fear of this negative externality justied constraints on risk sharing in the
form of scal rules, enshrined in the Stability and Growth Pact and later the
Fiscal Compact.
Prior to the creation of the single currency, a negative externality notori-
ously arose from the Bundesbanks setting of interest rates (James 2012: 343).
Whenever it let the D-Mark revalue against the US dollar, for instance to
prevent an inationary spillover from US monetary policy to the German
economy, tensions arose in the ERM, which tried to maintain a grid of stable
exchange rates between European member states. Capital outows forced
other European central banks to raise their interest rates so as to keep the
parities intact. But higher interest costs for investment and the ensuing
strength of their currencies against the US dollar depressed economic activity.
The risks of US monetary policy, as perceived by Germanys central bank, were
thus shifted onto weaker currency areas.
The market solution that Ronald Coase (1960) famously proposed, namely
to establish and enforce property rights that give agents incentives to intern-
alize these effects, is not easy to replicate in a Hobbesian world of sovereign
nations. At the international level, there is no hierarchical power equivalent to
a state vis--vis its citizens, which could effectively police a system of property
rights. Moreover, governments are not unitary actors but consist of authorities
with their own remits monitored by and responsive to different audiences.
49
A further issue is that independent and proud agents pursue their institu-
tional interests, even defying cooperative agreements between governments
because they see it as part of their mandate to stand up to elected govern-
ments. This was the case of the Bundesbank in the past. For instance, Giavazzi
and Giovannini (1987) and von Hagen (1989) discuss the evidence that the
German central bank observed only the letter but not the spirit of the inter-
governmental agreement that central banks should intervene symmetrically
in the ERM. This obligation required it to support central banks under devalu-
ation pressure by selling D-Marks and buying the other currency. Yet after
each such intervention, the Bundesbank was quick to undo this monetary
expansion through domestic credit restraint (sterilization), thus renewing
the pressure. Majone (2001) gives reasons why the Bundesbanks behavior
may be interpreted as the behavior of a trustee faithful to its perceived man-
date, rather than overreach (drift) of an agent. Even so, the Bundesbank is a
noteworthy example of a non-majoritarian national authority that could not
or would not internalize externalities that the elected principal, the German
government, had agreed to cooperate on under the Basel-Nyborg accord in
September 1987. This behavior by the Bundesbank was a relevant motivation
for other member states to seek currency unication.
2.3.2 Asymmetric Information

Information that is unevenly distributed between two parties is devastating to
the efciency and even the emergence of cooperation, especially if both are
rationally aware of this asymmetry. To take the example of insurance as a
particular form of cooperation: the party that wants to ofoad risks knows
more about their existing risk factors (adverse selection) and future risk-taking
behavior (moral hazard) than the other party that might assume this risk
against an insurance premium. The insuring party knows that the potential
for adverse selection and moral hazard exists, and if it cannot nd remedies
may refrain from offering insurance or entering a mutual insurance scheme,
even though there is room for an insurance arrangement that would be
benecial for both.
A more specic example relevant to monetary integration is again the role of
scal behavior. Every mature democracy in Europe has encountered the dif-
culty of keeping strict budget constraints: traditional hard-currency countries
like Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland included. Member states strug-
gled to meet the scal indicators for entering the monetary union. The
European Commission, in charge of adjudicating the process, had a veritable
ght on its hands, as James Savage (2005) meticulously and entertainingly
documented. But only the Greek administration had systematically falsied
data about its public nances at the point of EA entry, which was revealed by a
50
report of the Commissions statistical agency soon afterwards (Eurostat 2004).

This was a clear case of adverse selectionit raised the aggregate risk of the
pool and thus reduced the insurance potential of the common currency.
Successive Greek administrations continued to run higher decits and accu-
mulate more debt than allowed under the EAs scal rules. This can be seen as
an instance of moral hazard, additional risk taking under the cover of insur-
ance, if one believes that, if Greece had remained outside the EA, Greek
governments would have mended their scal ways.
Given the prominence of this interpretation, it is important to keep in mind
that moral hazard is not an easy to establish claim about purposeful risk
taking, shifting the downside onto others. Less purposeful action may have
been the reason: not active risk taking but continued lack of control is an
equally plausible explanation. After all, Greek governments action of running
higher than declared decits was barely hidden. Eurostat (2010: ch.3) kept on
informing the Council that the Greek data could not be trusted but the
Council, as well as credit-rating agencies and other professional investors,
ignored this publicly available information. This can be interpreted as an
endorsement of risk taking that may be actually benecial for everybody
since it pays off in high growth and expanding markets. Or all sides were
complicit in risk taking, in which case there was no risk shifting by Greek
authorities onto others involved. The implication of this diagnosis is that the
default risk that all sides tolerated before 2009 should have been shared by
both sides, public debtor and private creditor, when it materialized. This is the
view of Sandbu (2015: 4879), among many others.
There are solutions to adverse selection (hidden information) and moral
hazard (hidden action), respectively. Adverse selection can be guarded against
by gathering information prior to offering insurance. The Maastricht process
asked candidates to live over two electoral cycles in a low-ination environ-
ment without changing the exchange rate so as to reveal whether the candi-
dates political economy could sustain a regime that ensures a hard currency.
Moral hazard can be addressed by exclusions and co-payments. The no-bailout
clause of Article 123 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (TFEU) was
meant to exclude insurance in the case of public overindebtedness. The refusal
to introduce any joint scal capacity was an exclusion intended to curb risk
taking, meaning that member states would be on their own if they got
themselves into scal difculty. The systemic nancial crisis from 2008
onwards made this strict limitation of scal risk sharing untenable. Hence,
the no-bailout clause was reinterpreted, emergency funds were created and the
ECB intervened in secondary government bond markets. Critics suggested
that this would lead to moral hazard in the future, but countries made sub-
stantial co-payments. They endured severe recessions subsequent to the bond
market panic, and were subject to the detailed prescriptions (conditionality)
51
in the bailout programs. Both types of co-payment can be expected to curb

excessive risk taking because those seeking insurance bear some (in this case
most) of the costs. The insurance given consisted largely of a protracted phase
of low interest rates that was a cost to taxpayers and savers in guarantor
countries.
2.3.3 Lack of Commitment

Commitment problems arise when promises are not aligned with future
incentives so that the promises are not credible. A particularly inuential version
of the commitment problem, formulated by Kydland and Prescott (1977), sees
it arising when rational egoists have the ability to manipulate their con-
straints. For instance, policy authorities have an incentive to manipulate
ination expectations by announcing stabilizing monetary policy and subse-
quently reneging in order to achieve higher employment. However, if others
are equally rational and anticipate this incentive to break a commitment,
those behaving inconsistently will not get away with ittheir promises are
simply not credible. The unsuccessfully promising party then faces a worse
inationunemployment tradeoff than if it had been able to keep its promise,
so it has an incentive to enter hard commitments and thus make its promise
credible. A commitment is hard if rational egoists can no longer manipulate
their constraint.
This is in short how Giavazzi and Pagano (1988) rationalized the repeated
attempts of Italian governments to stay in the ERM, and by extension, adopt
the euro. This explained why a government would so visibly commit to a hard
currency which it could apparently not maintain without a straitjacket.
Giving up the currency meant that Italian governments lost the ability to
manipulate ination expectations and then engineer surprise ination or
devaluation. This diagnosis of the commitment problem implied that it was
Italian governments that created ination for their own electoral reasons.
Faced with the consequences of structural high ination, they changed their
ways and tied their hands.
It is arguable, however, that the authorities were merely weak and accom-
modated inationary pressures, while distributive conicts between social
partners were the underlying cause of the pricewage spiral. If so, the Italian
authorities behavior is consistent with the more general interpretation and
solution of the commitment problem that Elster (1979) proposed. The incar-
nation of this attitude towards commitments is the mythical gure Ulysses
who ties himself to the mast while passing the seductive Sirens. Commitments
here are rational ways of dealing with anticipated irrational future behavior,
like addiction or harmful opportunism. Thus, polities give themselves consti-
tutions that lay down fundamental rules that can only be changed with
52
supermajorities. This interpretation of the commitment problem suggests that

joining the EA meant for Italian governments that they could retain their
ability to respond to social conicts over income distribution (listen to the
Sirens) but (tied to the mast) exclude the response of weakening the currency
through ination. In this light, the Italian elites desire to make their country a
member of the EA was a way out of the dilemma of government responsive-
ness (Rodrik and Zeckhauser 1988). It addressed the commitment problem of
weak and prudent, not hyperactive and proigate, governments. Joining a
monetary union enabled them to stick to their promise and not help out
private actors who had predictably brought losses on themselves and the
economy at large. Intransigent social partners, reckless banks, and over-
ambitious home buyers spring to mind.
This points to a more general caveat: breaking promises may be the conse-
quence of rationally pursued self-interest, but it can also be due to inherent
weakness. Before joining the monetary union, the government of a small
open economy with some foreign exchange debt could simply not guarantee
that it would never default, because a currency crisis can lead to an over-
shooting exchange rate depreciation that wrecks the economy and the
budget. After joining the EA, governments had to enter an extremely restric-
tive set of commitments: they do not share public liabilities, the central bank is
not allowed to buy government bonds directly even under the most extreme
systemic crisis while a transnational framework for prudential regulation pro-
moted that banks hold large quantities of government debt (Pisani-Ferry 2012).
An administration that sticks to its promise to honor overbearing commit-
ments (paying back debt to foreigners or shouldering the cost of bank bailouts
nationally) may be voted out of ofce before it can deliver on the promise.
Taking the weakness of administrations into account suggests that sovereign
commitments have to be handled exibly: there must be contingencies under
which commitments are suspended or they will be broken and blame wrongly
attributed. The trick is to make this exibility credible (Lohmann 2003).
Risk sharing poses a specic commitment problem: after a contingency has
arisen and affects some members of the pool but not others, the fortunate
have incentives to renege on their promise to share the pain. The Greek
sovereign debt crisis allowed the creditor countries to refuse the existence of
a commitment as the no-bailout clause had excluded this risk from coverage.
This was more difcult to maintain in the case of the Irish and Spanish
banking crises. The involvement of cross-border banks in the overextension
of credit to countries that needed bailouts raised the question of whether more
losses should have been borne by those banksand possibly their sovereigns
if they chose to prop up their banks. Sandbu (2015: 16573) argues that this
sharing of losses (through debtor default) would have been in the enlightened
self-interest of the parties. This is true but a more general commitment
53
problem of a monetary union lies underneath. Given uncertainty, not every

contingency can be specied in advance, hence commitments may be implicit
until an unknown unknown materializes. The promotion of nancial integra-
tion through a common currency can be seen as having created a commitment
for all members to insure each other if integrated markets fail systematically.
Another standardand sometimes justiedexcuse for the fortunate is to
blame moral hazard on the part of the unfortunate for their bad luck and deny
them compensation. In private insurance, there is recourse to courts when an
insurer does not want to pay out, but between sovereigns such situations are
difcult to adjudicate. The Commission could in principle play that role but
its authority rests on the trust it can command on both sides. In the case of
bailout programs, analyzed in Section 6.1, we observe the curious coincidence
of harsh conditionalityas if high co-payments had to be extracted for past
moral hazard on the part of distressed countriesand at the same time record
bailout fundingas if the guarantors acknowledged the need.
2.3.4 Misperception
Under this heading, Moss (2002: 405) groups a whole set of systematic biases
in the perception and understanding of risks that lead to over or under-
insurance. The benchmark is insurance in line with rationality as understood
by subjective-expected-utility theory. But it can be rational for people to use
heuristic devices to deal with situations of subjective or objective uncertainty,
that is when the probability distribution itself is unknown.10 Two psych-
ologists, Daniel Kahneman and the late Amos Tversky (1979), demonstrated
that some of these heuristics show systematic bias. Framing is one example:
depending on whether the same issue is framed as saving lives or accepting
deaths, interviewees react with inconsistent risk preferences, risk averse in one
case and risk loving in the other. Availability also produces biases: striking or
recent news gets undue attention when assessing risks. Individuals tend to be
irrational when it comes to low probability events like eccentric accidents or
natural disastersthey either overestimate or ignore at their peril how likely it is.
There is nally the optimistic bias that the average driver considers himself
to be less prone to accidents than the average driver.
All this sounds familiar from our own life experience. But it is not straight-
forward to draw conclusions from this research for international cooperation
between institutional actors. This is not to deny that politicians, just like
everybody else, are susceptible to irrational decisions, especially under pressure.
But in mature democracies, summit conclusions and leaders pronouncements
10
Especially since the standard model of economic choice under uncertainty has itself rather
absurd implications. See Rabin and Thaler (2001) on the modeling of risk aversion.
54
are politics, not policy. Before a resolution becomes a policy intervention, it has
to pass many checks and balances in the legislature, the bureaucracy, and the
media. The two-level game of politics in international relations adds another
check on domestic politics (Putnam 1988): the case for domestic measures has
to convince other governments and a supranational administration. Inter-
national integration should actually reduce misperceptions that stem from a
narrow national framing of issues. Hence, it would amount to a fallacy of
composition, taking the part for the whole, if these insights of behavioral
economics were used to explain the limited rationality of certain policies
with the psychology of decision makers (Hardin 1982: 13).
Perception problems of individuals can explain, however, why policies that
are of mutual benet cannot be implemented. The media, especially when
they take pride in being the voice of the common people, are susceptible to the
same misperceptions as their readers and listeners, and sometimes seem to
heighten or exploit those misperceptions. Idiosyncratic stories about some
well-off Greek pensioners crowded out the evidence that Greece had one of
the highest old-age poverty rates in the OECD even before the crisis. This made
it hard for any guarantor government to get a bailout program approved by its
parliament that did not contain cuts in Greek pensions.11 The crisis in all
Southern European countries and Ireland came to be framed as a crisis of public
debt rather than as one of private debt and credit; panic in national segments
of the euro government bond market dominated perceptions and dened the
crisis. This predisposed the Council of Economic and Finance Ministers to
tighten the scal surveillance framework; although Greece could have been
sanctioned under the old rules while Ireland, Spain, and Cyprus did not
primarily have a scal crisis, Portugal was a borderline case (Section 6.1).
As indicated, the institutional checks and balances of democracy, the rule of
law, and international relations can be a solution to perception problems.
Both impose the norms of rational discourse that require policies to be justi-
ed outside the context of scandal and outrage, and call for a basis beyond
parochial and ill-informed concerns. Yet it is unlikely that rational discourse
can trump popular misperceptions. This makes hypocrisy an inherent elem-
ent of modern politics and policymaking (Runciman 2008: 1956). The
French and German governments ways of coping with the nancial crisis in
200810 are cases in point (Schelkle 2012a): the rhetoric of crisis management
satised popular expectations in each country, invoking a strong state in
France and the responsibilities of markets in Germany, while the measures
adopted were the polar opposites. The French government implemented a
minimal stimulus program, mindful of its budgetary situation, while the
11
The stories were particularly promoted by the tabloid Bild-Zeitung in Germany, which
published them as part of its campaign against any bailout package for Greece.
55
German coalition government went for a large aggregate stimulus program

that satised well-represented economic interests, such as the car industry.
To sum up: the four types of political market failures expand perspectives on
the collective action problem of managing a common currency provided by
political theory (Ostrom 1990: 27). The political market failure approach is in
contrast to three models most used in political theory: the tragedy of the
commons, the prisoners dilemma, and the privileged group theory of the
logic of collective action (Olson 1971). All have the problem of free riding on
others efforts at their foundation. But this seems to be too narrow a base for
understanding collective action problems among geopolitical entities (states).
For a start, there is a modest number of state parties, whereas free riding is
more likely to be endemic when there is a large number of individuals with
preoccupations other than collective action, rationally avoiding the costs of
engagement. Furthermore, institutional actors, such as bureaucracies and
policymaking organizations like central banks, are set up to act in the states
interest. Free riding on other states may occur but is only one reason why they
do not cooperate. The following chapters try to substantiate this claim.
2.4 Forms of Risk Sharing
Distributional considerations are important for distinguishing forms of inter-

state risk sharing. But the focus on relative versus absolute gains that charac-
terizes the international relations literature (Mearsheimer 2010) is less
relevant in this context. Rational cooperation on sharing risks is prone to
different collective action failures depending on whether they primarily
stabilize or primarily redistribute, and whether they do so either through
insurance ex ante or compensation ex post (Moss 2002: 1819).
A case of pure stabilization through insurance would be a multilateral fund
to stabilize income in recessions. It provides stabilization insofar as it aims
only to reduce the volatility of member states national income, and not to
adjust relative levels over time. It provides insurance because members of the
fund agree on the rule for risk sharing ex ante, that is before the situation
arises. Contributions might also be paid into a fund beforehand, but this is not
crucial here: prior agreement on rules can sufce to achieve ex ante risk
sharing. The EA typically organizes insurance through regulatory means,
most recently through a bail-in rule for all government bonds which will
make private creditors share the cost of future debt restructuring. Capital
markets can perform income and consumption smoothing as well, with an
internationally diversied portfolio, assembled prior to the shock, acting as
insurance. But the process requires that the citizens of the country affected
own shares in other member states. This has not happened on a grand scale,
56
even though Robert Shiller (1993) worked out the technicalities of such macro
markets some time ago.
Stabilizing insurance should theoretically be the form of risk sharing we nd
most often. Even members with different income levels would benet from
smoothing volatility, and it should be possible to devise and agree rules
ex ante that ensure that each can expect some benet out of the scheme.
But the pure stabilization scheme that the Commission was asked to devise in
the early 1990s was ditched by the Council as soon as it was published
(Italianer and Vanheukelen 1993; Goodhart 2011). Problems of information
asymmetry were a crucial obstacle.
A scheme of redistribution reduces the dispersion of expected outcomes, for
instance by raising the national income of poorer member states through
transfers. It can also be an ex ante arrangement (social insurance) if the
rules under which a member of the scheme receives redistributive transfers are
formally dened beforehand. The EUs regional policy is of this nature, stipu-
lating that member states or regions below the EU average income (90 percent
or 75 percent) can receive transfers. Because it is redistributive, richer member
states may not be keen on such a scheme, but the ex ante specication of rules
leaves open the possibility that they may at some point benet from it as well.
For instance, eligibility may be dened on a regional basis so that poor regions
in rich member states can receive funds. Again, the EU often provides such
redistribution through regulatory means: the regulation of free movement is a
redistributive insurance scheme for individuals that the EU sustains by grant-
ing social citizenship to EU migrants and their families (Chapter 8). Such
redistributive schemes typically have to be mandatory, because otherwise
those who expect to be net payers may opt out; it follows that the commit-
ment is typically part of a bigger deal, in this case the four freedoms of the
Single Market.
Insurance can be distinguished from compensation, which is risk sharing
ex post. The failure to establish rules before a calamity occurs is an obstacle to
collective action. To the fortunate members, the quest for compensation by an
unfortunate member appears as a cost of interdependence (externality) which
was not agreed. Nonetheless, stabilizing compensation may be agreed by
structuring it as a loan rather than a transfer. In theory, international credit
markets can perform this interstate risk sharing, but their pro-cyclical tenden-
cies mean that they are likely to impose more onerous terms and make a return
to normalcy more difcult than if ofcial lending is arranged. The ve coun-
tries whose government bonds were sold off by market investors, driving
prices for these bonds down and bond yields up,12 could not get credit to
12
In its simplest form, a bond is a promise to pay a xed amount of interest p.a. (for instance
5k) on its nominal face value (for simplicity 100k), which the bond issuer promises to pay back at
57
Table 2.2. Congurations of interstate risk sharing
Risk sharing Arranged ex ante Arranged ex post
To smooth volatility of expected Stabilizing insurance Credit (stabilizing compensation)

outcome (cross-border payments (central bank lending of last
system, Chapter 9) resort, Chapter 7)
To change level of expected Social insurance Transfer (ad hoc compensation)
outcome (migration as a social right, (debt write-off for member
Chapter 8) states, Chapter 6)
tide them over the nancial crisis; on the contrary, it would have accelerated
their ruin if they had not received ofcial loans to cover their budget decits.
The rst Greek bailout program treated the governments debt largely as a
matter for stabilizing compensation, as if the country merely had to overcome
a temporary shock. The debt write-down in the second bailout acknowledged
that a transfer was needed, which was imposed on the private sector, however;
only the third bailout program has included ofcial transfers in the disguise of
grant elements to the ofcial loans (interest-free phase, interest rate well below
market rate, long maturity). As the programs moved from credit to transfer,
the negotiations became ever more acrimonious: the need for ad hoc com-
pensation suggests that there was not full information and probably some
hidden action on the part of the needy involved.
Table 2.2 summarizes these distinctions. In parentheses, I list examples of
risk sharing in the EA that will be discussed in later chapters. An example of
stabilizing insurance is the cross-border systems for processing payments in
euros (TARGET) which is outlined and compared with the US payments
system (ISA) in Chapter 9. Redistribution through social insurance is exempli-
ed by the rules governing intra-US and intra-EU labor mobility, discussed in
Chapter 8. Stabilizing compensation can be illustrated with the extraordinary
measures adopted by the ECB in Chapter 6. Finally, an example of the difcult
case of ad hoc compensation is hard to come by, for the reasons indicated. The
provision of sovereign bailouts, specically inconspicuous grant elements in
the restructuring of Greek debt, is the only example this study has come
across, briey discussed in Chapter 6.
Moving from the economics of risk sharing to political economy, it is
important to note that there is an irreducibly constructive element in the
classications of Table 2.2. The three Greek bailout programs just mentioned
are a case in point. Economists tend to take risks as categorically given, for
instance an output or demand shock, and ask which mode of risk sharing
would be most effective in tackling a particular risk. This is a perfectly valid
a dened future date. So if the price of the bond falls below this face value (from 100k to 80k), the
xed interest payment (5k) means a rising yield (5/80 = 6.25 percent, up from 5/100 = 5 percent).
58
research question that is of great interest to public policy. But it inevitably has
a blind spot. The mode of risk sharing can also determine what kind of risk
something is: bad luck, bad behavior, or manifest disadvantage.
These modes construct communities of risk that can explain how extensive
and robust mutual support is going to be in the presence of political market
failures (Atkinson 1999: 8391; Baldwin 1990: 1214). For instance, it is well
established in the comparative political economy of welfare states that
arrangements constructed as insurance tend to be politically more robust
and generous than those constructed as assistance. Social insurance has elem-
ents of both. The stress on insurance enlists citizens into a community of fate
(shared risk), whereby the unlucky receive transfers from a common fund. The
stress on social (assistance), by contrast, provides for transfers from the non-
poor to the poor, while seeking to avoid a clear separation of the paying and
receiving communities.
We can see similar possibilities for construction in the way that risk sharing
between geopolitical entities is viewed. Stabilizing insurance treats the risk of
low income or low growth as bad luck, a deviation from trend, and takes those
in need of support into a community of fate with the lucky non-poor
members. The bad luck could be intense competition affecting economic
sectors in which a member states rms were specialized. One way of provid-
ing social insurance is a common interest rate policy that takes the growth
concerns of the unfortunate member state into account. The fortunate mem-
bers would contribute to insurance by putting up with interest rates lower
than is appropriate for their economies, or by having investments go abroad
instead of creating these jobs at home. Their willingness to accommodate
another member will depend on whether they can see a common currency
as potentially beneting their less fortunate future self, when their economies
might be stagnating.
Cohesion policy for the late entrants into the EU is an example of a scheme
which is framed analogously to social assistance. Those countries with less
than 90 percent of EU average income get transfers, while those with above-
average income are generally net contributors. Regional funds have been
available for some time, but cohesion funding was specically developed to
compensate member states for the possible job losses in the wake of the Single
Market Programme and the adoption of the euro (Moravcsik 1998: 446). At the
time, it was part of a package deal for opening borders to superior competitors;
a way of overcoming resistance to cooperation in the sense of Martin (1995,
2001). Over time, when the quid pro quo of open borders is no longer
negotiable, the aspect of charitable risk sharing comes to dominate percep-
tions of these transfers. Altruism or simply compliance with treaty obligations
can sustain such charity. But it is not solidarity in the sense used here
Baldwins political notion of generalized and reciprocal self-interest.
59
Political economists (and economists) tend to consider these motives to be less

robust, keeping distributive conict visible and salient. It is telling that the
cohesion countries earned the acronym PIGS, insinuating that the funding
they received was not development assistance to make them more resilient
against the risks of the Single Market but a form of pork-barrel politics. Risk
sharing in the form of assistance rather than insurance creates perceptions of
one-sided support that is hard to sustain between states.
The modes of risk sharing listed in Table 2.2 are taken up in different
chapters. Stabilizing insurance, expected to be the most robust form of
rational cooperation, is the topic of the last chapter (9) before the conclusions.
Social insurance provided through the regulation of economic migration in
the EU is the theme of Chapter 8. It is, in terms of political robustness, on a par
with stabilizing compensation that is delegated to an independent, specialized
body, here: the central bank. Stabilization through lending programs was the
most prominent mode of risk sharing during the crisis and is analyzed in
Chapter 7. Finally, Chapter 6 on the crisis deals briey with ad hoc compen-
sation, which the theoretical approach adopted here sees as an exceptional
form of risk sharing, exercised only under extreme duress.
60
3
Economic Risk Sharing between States
The political economy theory of monetary integration based on risk sharing

has two elements: the rationalist-institutionalist scholarship on interstate
cooperation, outlined in Chapter 2, and institutional economics under uncer-
tainty, which is the topic of this chapter. The paradox of diversity suggests
that one needs to consider both: the more diverse the membership of a risk
pool, the higher the potential economic benets from risk sharing but also the
greater the political obstacles to exploiting these benets.
Institutional economics under uncertainty takes its departure from the work
of Kenneth Arrow (1963), George Akerlof (1970), and Joseph Stiglitz (1969).
Almost any economic activity can be framed as risk taking and risk sharing.
This takes seriously that economic activity happens in time and typically
extends into a more or less uncertain future. Akerlof (1970) famously showed
that car dealers can be understood as providing insurance against the risk of
picking a lemon when buying a used car. This type of analysis has been
extended to all walks of economic life. A large part of what any nancial
institution does, be it the stock market, an investment company, or a bank,1
is to provide risk-sharing opportunities to capitalist rms: they can diversify
the vagaries of business by shifting risk partly onto investors and creditors.
The rm in turn can also be seen as an insurance provider to workers in that it
pays a steady wage income in return for the worker contributing to a higher but
volatile income stream for rm owners (Ellul et al. 2015). This risk manage-
ment turn of economics highlights the importance of institutions other than
the price mechanism. The analysis reveals the hidden risk-sharing arrange-
ments of economic life for which Akerlof s used car dealer and the extensive
study of David Moss (2002) provide striking examples.
1
Diamond and Dybvig (1983) is the path-breaking article that interprets banks as insurers for
saving households. Moss (2002: ch.3) shows how limited liability evolved as a risk-sharing device
in US history that allowed rms to take much more risk.
The rst section explains where benets from risk sharing come from if
members are similar except for the different timing of random shocks. The
underlying law of large numbers is a benchmark against which the economic
benets from pooling risks of a nite number of fundamentally different mem-
bers can be seen more clearly. The law underpins the economic literature on
risk sharing through monetary-nancial integration, which is reviewed in the
second section. But it is the third section that expands the framework of
channels to interfaces of risk sharing in light of theoretical advances in
the economic literature since the nancial crisis of 20078. The last section
summarizes the difference between the risk-sharing literature that was a
promising take-off from the theory of OCAs and the economics underpinning
the political economy of monetary solidarity: nancial markets can no longer
be taken as channels of risk sharing but are themselves a source of risk that can
destabilize entire economies.
3.1 The Idea of Risk Diversication
Risk diversication exploits the statistical property that the variance of a sum
of shocks is lower, the lower the covariance among the individual compo-
nents (Belke and Gros 2009: 46). In other words, the volatility of a risk pool is
lower, the more idiosyncratic (or asymmetric) the volatility of its members
is. Member or individual component here can mean assets in a portfolio or the
gross domestic product (GDP) of each state in a monetary union. The shocks
to members have to be independent and exogenous, in other words not
generated by the risk pooling itself. The covariance between individual shocks
can also be negative, meaning that when one member has an upswing in
fortunes, the other tends to experience a downturn. Low and even negative
covariance means, in terms of randomness, diversity of membership.
The law of large numbers draws out the implications of this property and
can serve as a benchmark for illustrating the difference between the econom-
ics and the political economy of risk sharing. Discovered by Jacob Bernoulli in
the early eighteenth century, it says that what may be individually risky (high
variance) or indeed uncertain (unknown variance) can be turned into a certain
average by appropriate risk pooling. It can be illustrated by adapting an
example given by Moss (2002: 289). Lets assume that every member state
in a monetary union experiences on average a year-long recession every ve
years that costs each about 5 percent of national income in that year. This
means that each has a 20 percent probability of a recession each year and an
average loss of 1 percent of annual national income.
If the political elites of two member states are particularly averse to such
sharp recessions, they can agree to operate a bilateral stabilization fund that
62
allows them to share their losses when the economy is in a downturn. There
are three possible outcomes: both are in recession (4 percent probability), only
one is in recession (32 percent probability), or none is in recession (64 percent
probability).2 But only in four out of 100 years will the recession be as sharp as
before (5 percent loss in one year) and in thirty-two out of 100 years the
income loss will be halved, either because the member is in recession and
receives an insurance pay-out or because the member is not in recession but
has to pay out to the other. So the aggregate risk has not been reduced but the
national risk has: by just sharing their risk of a recession with one other state
has reduced the likelihood for each that they will experience a severe down-
turn from one year in ve to one year in twenty-ve.
As more member states participate in the scheme, this variance drops fur-
ther and further. If there were an innite number of members, all risk could be
eliminated. By paying the insurance premium of 1 percent out of which all
recessions could be covered, each member state would have a slightly lower
annual income than it would have in the good years in a world without
insurance, yet each members income would be completely stable. In other
words, the risk of a recession has been completely diversied away, by exploit-
ing the fact that members recessions were not completely synchronized, and
turned into an entirely predictable cost of insurance. This premium is a
measure of risk aversion, the sure amount of income foregone in return for a
perfectly smooth income ow.
How does this calculation change if we modify and apply the calculus to the
heterogeneous European Union before and after the launch of the euro? Lets
assume the same asynchronous business cycle pattern, but rst within the old
D-Mark zone of the ERM. A representative country would then be faced with
a 32 percent probability that the German interest rate was not right for its
cyclical situation. This is the probability that only the other member state or
only the German economy were in recession, so Germanys neighbor either
experienced a sharper recession or a worsening of its current-account balance
with Germany.
If the representative member state was in recession but Germany was not,
there was no decrease in the interest rate; hence, the recession was deeper,
lasted longer, or had to be fought with other means. If the authorities had
tried to defy the Bundesbanks dominance and lowered interest rates
regardless, it would have triggered devaluation pressures that sooner or
2
Four percent probability for both being in recession is obtained by multiplying the
probabilities for recessions (20 percent times 20 percent); the calculation is similar for neither
being in recession (80 percent times 80 percent equals 64 percent) and for only one in recession (20
percent times 80 percent plus 80 percent times 20 percent equals 32 percent).
63
later would force it to raise interest rates in order to arrest the possible
adverse effects on debt and trade payments.
If only Germany was in a recession, the neighbor had to lower the interest
rate with an overheating domestic economy as the likely result; if it did
not follow Germanys lead, a relatively higher interest rate would lead to
capital inows, stimulating the economy, real or nominal revaluation
pressures, and make any current-account decit vis--vis Germany
worse, in a situation where it was probably already worsening as German
rms exported more to compensate for weak domestic demand.
Risk pooling without a common currency would have required the German
central bank to take the effect on its neighbor into account and operate a
monetary policy that is a (weighted) average of what is appropriate for the
state of the German cycle and the neighbors cycle. This is not inconceivable
but it calls for an implausible degree of consideration for the other, as well as
investments in data collection and forecasts for another economy.
Currency unication means, above all, a joint central bank which would do
exactly that: its monetary stance would try to target the average with its
interest rate or exchange rate policy. This averaging is equivalent to an insur-
ance that compensates the unlucky (Germany or its neighbor) out of the
contributions that both (all) members made. Obviously, this simple averaging
rule for monetary policy becomes more difcult if member states are of
different size, of different economic and political strength, have more or less
deep cyclical uctuations, etc. But it does not take away the fact that neighbors
could expect more consideration for the state of their economy than from a
dominant national central bank.
There are other important aspects in which the illustration of the law of
large numbers differs from the situation of the European and other monetary
unions. The rst observation is that the business cycle was no longer an
independent shock for any member state other than Germanythe German
business cycle was a source of endogenous risk that originated from capital
and goods markets integration with Germany, in particular the fact that their
currencies had a different standing in nancial markets. Moreover, currency
unions are formed between relatively small numbers of geopolitical entities.
There are still benets from risk sharing but asymptotically perfect stability, as
predicted by the law of large numbers, is not possible. Last but not least,
members are not similarly sized and their sources of economic instability are
different. These differences can make risk diversication even more attractive,
however, because it is then more likely that risks are negatively correlated and
the overall risk of the pool can be lowered.
How can states share risks to their citizens income and consumption that
stem from volatile output? This is the question that a rich empirical literature,
64
starting with Asdrubali et al. (1996) and Srensen and Yosha (1998), answers.
While the traditional theory of monetary integration sees idiosyncratic (asym-
metric) shocks as a problem, this literature sees country-specic shocks as an
opportunity for risk sharing. The term risk sharing is used in this literature to
mean the deliberate pooling of consumption risks among individuals in
different countries (Baxter 2012: 390).3 Two types of shocks are not covered
by this focus on idiosyncratic shocks: rst, shocks that are common in their
effect and hence cannot be shared among members (although they can be
shared with future generations through public debt); second, common shocks
that are different in their effect and can be shared but are symptoms of
fundamental differences among members (Cesa-Bianchi et al. 2016: 4).
This last type of shock raises the political-economic paradox of diversity in
its purest form: the common shock shows that the risk pool is economically a
community of fate but the varied effects make solidarity hard to sustain
politically. The nancial crisis of 20078 was arguably such a common shock
that differed in its impact on member states economies and public nances
enormously and became politically disintegrating (Section 6.2.3). It should be
noted from the outset that this paradox cannot be grasped by this literature.
However, country-specic shocks test solidarity among members as well and
so it is worth looking how far certain country groupings have got in terms of
sharing the risks from output shocks.
3.2 Sharing the Risk of Output Shocks between States
The negotiations about a monetary union in Europe led scholars to take a

closer look at the US dollar area, to see how much the federal budget and
nancial and labor market integration contributed to the stabilization of US
states. Ground-breaking work on specic risk-sharing channels included
Sala-i-Martin and Sachs (1991) on the tax-transfer system, Barro and Sala-i-
Martin (1991) on labor migration, and Atkeson and Bayoumi (1993) on capital
markets. Bent Srensen, the late Oved Yosha, and their various co-authors
developed a methodology that allowed the contribution of multiple channels
of risk sharing to be quantied. The idea that states might share risks was
inspired by a literature on the efciency of nancial markets in trading risks so
that rms can specialize protably.4 Geographic and industrial specialization
makes producers vulnerable to idiosyncratic shocks; in theory, risk-averse
3
It exploits the law of large numbers of consumers in a general equilibrium setting and applies it
to countries, a step taken by Obstfeld (1984).
4
See Kalemli-Ozcan et al. (2001: 10712) for an excellent overview of the early literature that
includes Helpman and Razin (1978) on trade and industry specialization under uncertainty and
Obstfeld (1994) on gains from risk taking in integrating nancial markets.
65
investors could protect themselves by holding a representative portfolio of

assets that consists of claims on the output of all members in the risk pool
(Imbs and Mauro 2007: 4).
This line of research provided a robust motivation for European monetary
integration: diversity was not a problem but an opportunity, and membership
beyond the core EU of the original six seemed to be a viable proposition. This
literature was taken up recently by leading gures in the EU: the economic
risk-sharing literature provides the underpinning for the so-called Four Presi-
dents and Five Presidents reports (van Rompuy et al. 2012; Juncker et al.
2015). These contain ambitious and authoritative plans for completing
Europes economic and monetary union. However, there are some problems
with the established economic risk-sharing analysis. Its proponents put
forward rather optimistic hypotheses about the effects of nancial market
integration on risk sharing, whereas the evidence, not least the experience of
the nancial crisis, suggests that such optimism is unwarranted.
The section rst outlines the main channels which the economic risk-
sharing literature has identied as enabling states (nations or regions) to
share risks to the livelihood of their citizens. Second, it summarizes the
evidence on how much groups of states share the risk from output shocks
and how much the different channels contribute. The answers vary widely,
depending on the methodology and the data sets used. The following section
turns to the limitations of these ndings. Most studies are conned to looking
at the risk of a region-specic shock to output (so-called supply shocks),
such as bad weather or a sudden oil price increase. I will show that shifting the
focus to demand shocks and nancial instability suggests that monetary
integration is more problematic, but at the same time more promising, than
implied by the economic theory of risk sharing.
3.2.1 What Are the Main Channels of Risk Sharing between States?
Economic risks that can be shared between states arise in the form of invol-
untary uctuations of income, employment, and consumption of their citi-
zens. The output of rms is instrumental to this, as it represents the value
added in production and most people earn their income by being employed in
rms producing this output. But the volatility of output as such is not a
concern for welfare economists: taking risks is in the nature of capitalist
businesses and they strive to get a reward for this. From a welfare economic
perspective, the important question is how the effect of an output shock can
be prevented from spilling over into a shock to income, employment, and
consumption. The path-breaking idea of Asdrubali et al. (1996) and Srensen
and Yosha (1998) was to take the differences between output and income on
the one hand, and income and consumption on the other, to identify possible
66
buffers and estimate how much of the initial shock to output these buffers
absorbed. So if a drop in output of 2 percent corresponds to a drop in con-
sumption of only 1 percent, this is interpreted as a shock absorption of 50
percent. The analysis then seeks to nd out through which channels this
shock absorption has been achieved (Dullien 2014: 59).
This is a specic understanding of stabilization, a point to which we return.
But two crucial implications of this methodology can already be noted. First of
all, consumption must be less volatile than output or one would have doubts
about the assumed causality from output shock to consumption volatility.
And second, there must not be other relevant sources that affect consumption
volatility directly, otherwise we could not attribute the difference between the
variance in output and in consumption to the shock absorbers.
The shock absorbers, or more formally, the channels of risk sharing, can be
inferred from national and regional accounts which give us several identities
( denoting that they hold by accounting convention or denition). The last
of the aggregates in each equation is the shock absorber. For instance in
equation (1), it is net international factor income that can prevent the shock
to output from fully translating into a shock to gross income by moving in the
opposite direction: when output falls due to a negative shock, factor income
should rise in relative importance, thereby absorbing (some of) the shock.5
1. output (GDP) gross income (GNI)net international factor income;

2. gross income (GNI) disposable income (DNI) + net scal transfers;
3. disposable income (DNI) consumption (C) + net savings.
Net international (or interregional) factor income consists of all the prot,
interest, rent, and labor income that nationals earn abroad (for US studies:
in another US state) minus prot, interest, rent, and salaries that foreigners
earn from claims on the domestic economy. This is the interstate risk-sharing
channel which this literature identies with the insurance that capital markets
provide. As domestically generated income takes a hit when there is an
idiosyncratic output shock, the stream of income from claims on other coun-
tries output can compensate for the shortfall. If the net factor income is
negative, this means that foreigners hold net claims on domestic output,
and stabilization occurs because prot income derived from domestic output
falls and less has to be paid to capital owners abroad. In addition to this
5
GDP in these studies is measured as output or gross value added in production. GNI/DNI
stands for gross/disposable national income, respectively. Gross here means that capital
depreciation has not been deducted. Srensen and Yosha (1998) lter out capital depreciation as
a source of risk sharing. But capital depreciation is subject to strict accounting rules that do not
necessarily respond to business cycles and other shocks. Not surprisingly, they nd that capital
depreciation is destabilizing in the sense of not shock absorbing, as it stays fairly constant while
output uctuates.
67
capital markets channel, there may also be a labor component of net factor
income, comprising remittances from cross-border workers. Many studies
ignore this element, on the grounds that in advanced economies remittances
are typically negligible relative to income from cross-border holdings of stocks
and shares.
Because the focus is on interstate rather than intergenerational risk sharing,
net scal transfers do not include the governments own budget decits or
surpluses. The relevant cross-border scal transfers are either the funds
received from other governments or international organizations minus
funds paid to them. Advanced countries are typically net payers and receive
transfers only in an emergency. In the EU, quite a few members are net
recipients of international transfers due to regional funds and agricultural
policy. However, because these transfers are based on structural indicators
and do not generally respond to cyclical supply shocks, they do not contribute
to risk sharing as understood and measured in these studies. In an intra-
national context, net scal transfers are the difference between federal trans-
fers that states receive and federal taxes they pay into the central budget, and
these are often sensitive to output shocks. Net transfers from the central
budget were once thought to be a potent source of interstate risk sharing
within a federation. As state output goes down, states pay less income tax
due to waning employment and receive more transfers, notably unemploy-
ment benets, if insurance is federal. In turn, states where the economy is
growing fast pay more income tax and receive lower benet payments.
Net savings is the income not spent by households and, in most of these
studies, by corporations (retained prot). This is intertemporal risk sharing
that the literature identies with credit markets whereby households save
with and borrow from banks. Credit markets allow households to maintain a
steady level of consumption by saving and dis-saving. But one should note
that the evidence suggests that credit markets do not work in a stabilizing way.
Household credit is pro-cyclical: households borrow more in good times,
while when they need credit most, banks are unwilling to lend. Furthermore,
most credit risk sharing is not interstate; rather, it brings about shifts between
present and future consumption within the domestic economy. However,
there may be an interstate element to credit-based risk sharing, particularly
when the banking system is partly foreign-owned. Within a federation, cross-
state bank ownership can be an important risk-sharing channel between
states. In an international context, internationally diversied banking systems
share risk, as in Central and Eastern Europe where national banking systems
are largely in foreign ownership (Epstein 2014).
Risk sharing through trade and, more generally, the current account presents
interesting and complex issues. In the standard accounts of interstate risk
sharing, the current account is amalgamated with the credit market channel.
68
Capital markets: cross-border

holdings of property rights
Credit markets: cross-border

Markets
credit and debt
Risk sharing between states

Labor markets: cross-border
(countries or regions) after
migration
output shock
Government (other
governments and International transfers/
international organizations/ federal transfers and taxes
federal budget)
Figure 3.1. The main channels of risk sharing between states in the economic literature
Source: own elaboration of Asdrubali et al. (1996) and Srensen and Yosha (1998)
This reects the supply-side orientation of the literature. As I discuss further

below, once demand shocks are considered the potential stabilizing role of trade
is greatly enhanced. Flood et al. (2012) suggest that the output-stabilizing role of
trade and technology transfer trump other channels of interstate risk sharing. In
their view, trade affects output directly by alleviating bottlenecks and providing
an outlet when domestic demand is low. It can, in principle, be isolated as the
part of net savings that matches the current-account balance. But with a few
exceptions, such as Mlitz and Zumer (1999), hardly any author explored this
information.
Figure 3.1 summarizes the channels for sharing risks to consumption from
output volatility that the literature identies through national accounts data.
This is the major methodological contribution of Asdrubali et al. (1996) and
Srensen and Yosha (1998): instead of testing how much countries or country
groupings deviate from full risk sharing, they identify how much certain
channels contribute to incomplete risk sharing (Kalemli-Ozcan et al. 2004: 5).
They distinguish between markets and government as providers of shock
absorbers. Markets allow risk sharing between states if citizens from one
state can receive income from property (shares or stocks) they hold in other
countries, directly or indirectly. They can also get credit or extend credit to
other states if their banking system is internationally diversied and lends or
borrows abroad. Citizens can also migrate and get a (better) job in another
state. This migration channel may also trigger government expenditure and
69
tax stabilizers, as jobs come with social entitlements in mature welfare states
although they go to migrants rather than their home state (see Chapter 5). The
state itself may receive transfers/social benets from other states, typically
represented by a supranational body like the World Bank or the EU; within
countries, transfers come from the federal budget. Not shown in Figure 3.1 is
any stabilization of demand shocks, notably the potentially output-stabilizing
role of trade, which enables rms to export and import and thus smooth their
output when domestic demand is volatile.
The relevance of each of these risk-sharing channels can vary enormously
between states and between citizens. The methodology measures the aggre-
gate and average relevance of these channels for different groups of states,
including states in the United States, in the OECD world, and for members of
the EU. These states are assumed to be populated by a representative house-
hold with constant relative risk aversion. This assumption ensures that
households are less risk taking than capitalist rms. But not all households
are affected by the average risk from output shocks: they have distinct income
risks (Nichols and Rehm 2014). Furthermore, households have unequal access
to credit and capital markets, whether directly or indirectly, for example
through internationally diversied pension funds. These distributional ques-
tions are ignored in analyses based on a representative household. In practice,
market channels are liable to be regressive in their distributional effects, with
wealthier households better placed to diversify their risks. State channels may
be more egalitarian in their distributive effects.
This economic literature touches on relevant political economy issues, but
does not address them systematically. Some of the stabilization channels share
risks ex ante, others only ex post (Table 2.1). Economists stress that the
distinction affects what kind of shock can be shared. Ex ante risk sharing or
insurance can help with permanent shocks. An example of a permanent
downside risk that countries presumably would like to share is structural
joblessness, which may be due to deindustrialization or technical progress.
Capital markets provide such insurance if households manage to acquire
property rights before the risk materializes. Once it has materialized, undivers-
ied households will inevitably suffer losses. Credit markets are unlikely to
help in the case of a permanent negative shock because banks are unlikely
to keep on lending to an economy which has an impaired earnings capacity
on the same terms. By contrast, they can help with transitory shocks, such as
business cycle uctuations or unusually bad weather, although, as noted
above, it is an open question whether banks actually do lend in this stabilizing
way. Becker and Hoffmann (2006) and Artis and Hoffmann (2008) nd evi-
dence for the economic relevance of the distinction between permanent and
transitory shocks: differences in the predictability and persistence of shocks
determine how effective capital and credit markets are as shock absorbers.
70
3.2.2 How Much Do Various Channels Contribute to Risk Sharing?

The studies reviewed in this chapter identify the extent of risk sharing by
nding out how much of a shock to output (GDP) is absorbed through each of
the following channels: cross-border factor income ows (identied with
capital markets), savings and borrowing (credit markets), and scal transfers
from outside the state (government). Consumption should be affected as little
as possible if the three risk-sharing channels work. The literature has typically
taken per capita growth rates or rst differences (changes in levels) for esti-
mating the volatility of output, income, and consumption. This takes out
trend growth which is obviously not a volatility that one needs to compensate
or insure against.6
The procedure uses the statistical relationship that the variance of output
can be decomposed into the covariance of output with its constituent parts:
output and national income, output and disposable income, and output and
consumption.7 Standardizing these covariances gives us the coefcients of
covariance, usually expressed as percentages. One can then exploit a useful
constraint, namely that the sum of these coefcients and the unsmoothed
residual must add to 1 or 100 percent. In other words, it must be possible to
decompose a shock to output into the components of cross-border factor
ows, net international transfers/budget transfers, net savings, and a residual.
Each component can be negative or positive. When the three national income
components move in the right direction, there is effective shock absorption
and the residual, which is the remaining covariance between output and
consumption, will be small.
As noted above, international factor income could include both capital and
labor income, but many studies look only at the capital channel. Labor
migration used to be a relevant shock absorber for the US, as Barro and
Sala-i-Martin (1991) established and Asdrubali et al. (1996: 11023) conrmed.
However, even in the US, cross-border labor income reduced the spillover of a
states output shock to income by less than 3 percent. Since the 1980s, labor
mobility in the US has been in secular decline and now contributes even less to
interstate risk sharing (Molloy et al. 2014). Between OECD countries, cross-
border labor income is irrelevant for risk sharing (Balli et al. 2011: 5313),
although the crisis may have changed that for the EU (see Chapter 8). This
goes directly against the high hopes that the proponents of OCA theory still
6
Becker and Hoffmann (2006) use ratios to income instead of per capita growth rates and have a
principled argument on why de-trended levels are better suited than growth rates. Other scholars
who have experimented with both seem not to have found much difference.
7
The standard articles give good accounts of their procedure and the variations in econometric
techniques they use. A Bank of England working paper was particularly helpful in this regard
(Labhard and Sawicki 2006: 1214). More critical assessments can be found in Baxter (2012) and
the contributions of Mlitz and his co-authors (see below and Section 3.2.3).
71
US states: 24%58%
OECD: 1%7%
Capital markets: cross-
EU: 9%13% border holdings of
US states: 48%86% EA: 0%14% property rights
OECD: 13%60%
Markets
EU: 17%51%
EA: 38%53%
Credit markets: (cross-
Risk sharing US states: 21%23% border) credit and debt
between states OECD: 8%53%
after output shock EU: 9%51%
EA: 24%53%
International transfers/
Government federal transfers and
taxes
US states: 5%14%
EU: 0%3%
EA: 2%0%
Figure 3.2. Range of empirical estimates for three risk-sharing channels

Source: see notes to Table 3.1A in the appendix
harbor for labor mobility acting as an adjustment mechanism for asymmetric

(idiosyncratic) shocks in Europe (Krugman 2013: 4412). Even if it were an
important adjustment mechanism for individuals, it is far from clear that the
economic effect on member states helps adjustment: the inherent selection bias
of age and initiative, often also of education, makes it very likely that the region
hit by a shock loses capacity for recovery while the better-off destinations gain.
Figure 3.2 shows Figure 3.1 with the range of estimates from seven compar-
able studies. More detail can be found in Table 3.1A in the appendix to this
chapter.
The estimates vary widely and are sensitive to the time span covered, the
selection of states within each group, and the quality of data sets. But there is
consensus that consumption is nowhere completely shielded from output
shocks, not even among US states. The estimate of the unsmoothed part ranges
from 9 percent to 39 percent for the US.8 Among OECD countries, between 36
percent and 80 percent of output shocks spill over into consumption volatility.
Consumption here includes the volatility of government consumption, as its
contribution to risk sharing cannot be assessed by a methodology measuring
interstate risk sharing. The unsmoothed part is between 53 percent and 77
percent in the EU (before the 2004 enlargement and without Luxembourg),
while it is between 51 percent and 61 percent in the EA.
8
Del Negro (2002) disputes that there is any interstate risk sharing in the US and argues that the
estimates of Asdrubali et al. (1996) have not taken into account measurement error of output
which is a serious problem in regional accounts. Del Negro also notes that their sample is
restricted to nineteen states only. I could not nd any other author with such a fundamental
critique.
72
The high-end estimates of uncompensated risks are from the study by

Mlitz and Zumer (1999), suggesting a distinct lack of shock absorption
through transactions among OECD and EU countries. They estimate the
unsmoothed part of an output shock to consumption directly, instead of
determining it as a residual. Mlitz and Zumer (1999) argued that the
procedure of taking the residual as the uncompensated part of risk sharing
is misleading if preference shocks occur, that is shocks to consumption
that are not caused by output shocks. A low covariance of output and
consumption growth may be due to direct shocks to consumption that
occur independently of output shocks. If so, the extent of risk sharing is
overestimated. More generally and importantly, there can be other shocks
to consumption than those from output via income. Notably, nancial
market integration can destabilize consumption through asset price
booms and busts (Christev and Mlitz 2011: 29). We come back to this
point below in the context of a critique of the narrow focus of this
literature on output shocks, but for now it is worth noting that the exclu-
sion of demand shocks means that this approach tends to overestimate
market channels and underestimate state channels of risk sharing (Dullien
2014: 5960).
A big difference between intracountry and international risk sharing is that
capital markets and private insurance play hardly any role for the latter,
whereas they dominate within countries, particularly in the US. This is disap-
pointing evidence for the expected effects and benets of nancial global-
ization (Kose et al. 2009). The bulk of risk sharing among OECD and EU
countries comes from intertemporal smoothing, that is net savings or lending
to and borrowing from domestic banks (Srensen and Yosha 1998: 2312).
Mlitz and Zumer (1999: 175), who identify international net credit separately
through current-account (im)balances, come to a similar conclusion.9 Capital
markets have provided only a small share of intertemporal and interstate risk
sharing. The high imbalances of the 2000s, in the EU but also the OECD,
increased the size of capital ows, but the effect on smoothing of consump-
tion and income is questionable: capital markets may very well have destabil-
ized both.
As noted above, scal transfers in an international context refer only to
transfers between countries and not intertemporal smoothing through sur-
pluses and decits. Their relevance is minimal and they can even be destabil-
izing, indicated by the minus sign on international transfers for the EA, which
9
This can be done by measuring the covariance of income (GNI) and domestic absorption, that
is the sum of private and public consumption and investmentthe difference in variance must be
due to the current account and the international credit that goes with it.
73
typically do not vary with the business cycle. EU regional funds were quite
substantial for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and regions in Spain (the so-called
Cohesion countries). But these funds are not designed to smooth cyclical
uctuations; they are supposed to respond to longer-term development
needs and to support catching up (Bayoumi and Masson 1996: 319).
3.2.3 Does Monetary Integration Lead to More Financial Risk Sharing?

Research on what is driving changes in these estimates over time had barely
started when it was rudely interrupted by the North Atlantic nancial crisis in
20078. This means there is only a short period of normal times within
which one might see whether monetary integration had a measurable effect
on risk sharing. The comparison between varying samples of OECD countries,
EU countries, and EA members do seem to show a Euro effect. Interstate risk
sharing through capital markets is higher between EA member states than
between EU members in all recent studies that take account of it.
The most recent estimate by Kalemli-Ozcan et al. (2014: table 2) shows that
for the member states most affected by the EA crisis (Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Portugal, and Spain), capital markets contributed 12 percent to consumption
smoothing of an output shock between 1990 and 2007. This is similar to what
earlier estimates had shown the US federal budget to do for the states. The
contribution of capital markets was, however, not signicantly different from
zero for the rest of the EU in its formation before Eastern enlargement. Support
for a euro effect on increasing risk sharing also comes from Gerlach and
Hoffmann (2008), who nd that consumption volatility has decreased more
than output and income volatility. Through pair-wise comparisons between
member and non-member countries, they establish that improved risk sharing
between EA member states can account for this apparent consumption
smoothing, especially of more permanent shocks. This study goes against
the received wisdom that international risk sharing can be at best about
transitory (business cycle) shocks but is non-existent for permanent shocks.
They suggest that policy convergence and deeper nancial integration are
responsible for their nding.
Christev and Mlitz (2011: 279) nd that European currency unication
has contributed to both capital market integration and consumption smooth-
ing. These authors go specically against the interpretation of Artis and
Hoffmann (2008), similar to Gerlach and Hoffmann (2008) that capital mar-
ket integration as such leads to consumption smoothing. Christev and Mlitz
(2011) reconcile the nding that there is a euro effect on risk sharing but not
from capital market smoothing by arguing that a monetary union could make
more goods tradable. This leads to a shift from non-traded to traded goods in
consumption, both of which makes consumption growth less dependent on
74
the ups and downs of domestic output. Their interpretation is echoed by Flood
et al. (2012) and Baxter (2012) who attribute lower output volatility and
increased synchronization of business cycles to the rise in trade and technol-
ogy transfer.
The comprehensive studies of Kose et al. (2003, 2007) do not directly speak
to the question of a euro effect and how to interpret it. But they add another
caveat about whether nancial integration leads to increasing consumption
risk sharing over time. First of all, they suggest that a well-known anomaly still
holds, even for advanced (industrial) economies (Kose et al. 2007: gure 3):
output is more highly correlated across countries than consumption while the
opposite should be the case if there is consumption risk sharing. They also nd
that, for emerging markets, international nancial integration actually
increases consumption volatility while this subsides with further develop-
ment. The authors interpret this as evidence for the relevance of domestic
institutional development of the nancial system.
Taken together, these pre-crisis studies suggest that the notion of stabiliza-
tion implied by the literature on interstate risk sharing through nancial
markets and monetary integration is too narrow to contribute much to our
understanding of monetary solidarity in the euro area. Financial market inte-
gration is supposed to reduce the transmission of output volatility into con-
sumption volatility in a straightforward way. However, monetary and
nancial integration may unsettle domestic credit and savings intermedi-
ation, thus destabilizing both output and consumption independently. If
trade is a stabilizing force, the Single Market may have had a stabilizing
inuence on the euro area, rather than monetary integration per se.
3.2.4 What Have We Learnt?

Notwithstanding its limitations, the economic risk-sharing literature and the
empirical research it stimulated has been path breaking for a new coherent
way of thinking about monetary integration. Diversity, or as this literature
calls it, asymmetry, can then be seen as the outcome of protable specializa-
tion, facilitated by enhanced opportunities for risk sharing. [A]symmetry of
output (GDP) may not be important for the members of the EU if there is
substantial risk-sharing between the members of the union (Kalemli-Ozcan
et al. 2004: 3). The literature also takes into account that the risk prole may
change: output volatility, understood as country-specic (asymmetric)
shocks, may increase due to the chance for more industrial specialization,
while income or consumption absolute and relative volatility may be reduced,
thanks to improved risk sharing through nancial markets.
This literature also breaks new ground by seeing markets as shock absorbers.
While certainly guilty of an optimistic bias regarding nancial markets, this
75
perspective cannot be ignored by political economists as it has proved to have

policy relevance. It underpins the latest EU policy initiative to create a capital
market union (Vron 2015). For instance, Hoffmann and Srensen (2012),
two principal contributors to this literature, argue against contemporary pro-
ponents of a scal union to complete the EA: they claim that getting on with
capital market integration would be a much more effective way of sharing risks
between members. While the economics underpinning the political economy
approach here disagrees with the notion that capital markets are a substitute
for scal union, the argument has to be taken seriously. Analytically, it high-
lights the importance of identifying all relevant risk-sharing channels, not
only those provided by governments.
But institutional economics can tell us that market integration is as much a
policy choice as the introduction of a joint budget. Risk-sharing channels are
not forces of nature: they are constructed and shaped through government
intervention and cooperation across borders. It is then only a small further
step for political economists to consider whether market channels may have
political advantages that commend them to member states struggling to
overcome their collective action problems. Regulating markets and providing
an infrastructure for their stable and reliable operation for business and their
customers could have as a side effect more robust ways of spreading risks to
income, employment, and consumption between states. For better or worse,
rightly or wrongly, market integration is often perceived as requiring less
cooperation between governments. Establishing the validity of this claim is
important for understanding the political economy of monetary solidarity.
One well-researched area is asymmetry in the sense of asynchronous business
cycles. The risk-sharing literature, in the theoretical tradition of real business
cycles,10 expects that business cycles become less synchronized in response to
productivity shocks because nancial ows go to where rates of return are
highest (Cesa-Bianchi et al. 2016: 23). This does not matter as long as
cross-border ownership of assets leads to less idiosyncratic volatility of income
(and by implication consumption), so that even those with a negative shock can
participate in efcient capital allocation (Kalemli-Ozcan et al. 2004: 13). Greater
deviations of member state outputs from average growth could thus still
lead to greater income smoothing while overall output would increase, thanks
to pro-cyclical capital movements. This is what Kalemli-Ozcan et al. (2004)
10
Real business cycles theory says that economic cycles are an efcient way for economies to
adjust to real shocks: they are like ripples in water when a stone is thrown into a lake. Hence, it
refutes the need for counter-cyclical intervention that Keynesian economics recommends to
smooth such uctuations. A standard reference is Backus et al. (1992) which tackles the puzzle
that, empirically, output uctuations are more closely correlated across countries than
consumption uctuations while theoretically it should be the other way round.
76
nd for the US while in the EU, to their great surprise, they nd idiosyncratic
income volatilitythe deviation of state-level income growth from average EU
income growthis larger than idiosyncratic output volatility. This can only be
the case if international factor income, between OECD countries largely from
income on assets held abroad, is more volatile than output (Kalemli-Ozcan
et al. 2004: 20). The authors hypothesize that nancial investments that are
not used to hedge against domestic output risks are to blame. A move from
portfolio investments to more direct foreign investment would supposedly
remedy this.
But Cesa-Bianchi et al. (2016) take issue with this interpretation, repeated in
later and related work of Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and co-authors. These
authors suggest that less synchronized business cycles (more idiosyncratic
output growth) can also be due to inefcient nancial markets that respond
to common shocks when countries are different. The differences between
economies may lead to more or less tight credit constraints that have a
perverse effect: where such constraints become binding when a negative
country-specic shock hits the economy, capital may be repatriated to allevi-
ate these constraints. The shock to the domestic economy is then also trans-
mitted to other countries and business cycles in output become more
synchronized. This challenges the underlying view of Kalemli-Ozcan et al.
(2004) that more integrated markets in the US are more efcient markets:
credit constraints may simply be homogenously distributed across rms and
sectors. Their study develops a methodology that allows them to distinguish
between these two underlying causescountry-specic shocks in similar
countries or common shocks on different economiesand nd that the latter
is more prevalent. Capital ows that alleviate domestic credit constraints lead
to more cyclical synchronization among eighteen OECD economies than one
would expect from efcient risk sharingthis could be the EU case in Kalemli-
Ozcan et al. (2004). Common shocks that have different effects on member
state economies lead to pro-cyclical capital ows that make business cycles less
synchronizedthis could be the US case in Kalemli-Ozcan et al. (2004). While
the jury is still out on these matters, it is important to note at this stage that
nancial contagion can lead to asymmetry of a monetary union, hetero-
geneity would be endogenous to more nancial interlinkages rather than a
structural characteristic. This is an important consideration since the EA crisis
(Section 6.2.3).
But where does the high pre-crisis idiosyncrasy in European national
incomes come from? The focus on output shocks in the original methodology
systematically underestimates stabilization by the non-market channel
(Dullien 2014). Debates on stabilization of the EA revolve around the demand
side: Here, one usually wants to know how much of an initial drop in some
component of aggregate demand is actually counteracted by existing
77
institutions or certain policies, and by how much GDP actually contracts

(Dullien 2014: 59). Risk sharing would be found when a change in expected
private investment, consumption, and external demand is prevented from
translating fully into a change in output. Stabilizing intervention can work
directly, but also through second-round effects. For instance, if a rise in
imports occurs that reduces demand for domestic rms output, unemploy-
ment insurance would have a rst-round stabilizing effect on consumption,
and a second-round effect in preventing a fall in consumption leading to a
further decrease in output (Dullien 2014: 5960).
Yet, the extent to which this is the case varies widely within Europe.
Research on automatic stabilizers, built into national and federal tax-transfer
systems, gives us an idea of how much demand and income volatility is
absorbed by government channels within states. A comparison by Dolls
et al. (2009, 2010), which has quickly become a standard reference, uses
micro-simulations of shocks in nineteen EU states and the US federation (in
aggregate). The simulations are based on models of statutory tax-transfer
systems in Europe (EUROMOD) and in the US (TAXSIM). They identify the
operation of automatic stabilizers as intended by the legislator, without the
effect of discretionary policies or behavioral changes on the part of house-
holds. Dolls et al. (2010: 34, 16, 312) take state income taxes and unemploy-
ment benets into account and thus arrive at higher estimates for automatic
stabilizers in the US than previous studies which have looked only at federal
scal effects. Even so, they nd that automatic stabilizers in the US compen-
sate 32 percent of an income shock compared to an average of 38.5 percent in
the EA. The comparison is even less favorable for an unemployment shock:
the US tax-transfer system compensates only 34 percent of a fall in income
caused by a rise in unemployment, whereas 48.5 percent is compensated on
average in the EA. However, there is wide variation among member states.
Estimates range from 53 percent of an income shock that is absorbed by taxes
and transfers in Belgium to only 28 percent in Spain and from 62 percent of an
unemployment shock in Germany to 31 percent in Italy. It is very likely that
there is substantial variation between US states as well, since state income
taxes and unemployment benets vary widely (see Chapter 8 for the latter).
In sum, in Europes mature welfare states there is substantial stabilization of
demand shocks, which is typically not cross-border and works through taxes
and transfers. But the shock-absorption capacity of welfare states varies. And
public risk sharing has so far little equivalence between states even though
common shocks may originate in internationally integrated markets and
affect countries differently (Ces-Bianchi et al. 2016: 19, 29). This gave rise to
the idea of cross-border unemployment insurance to replicate domestic sta-
bilization mechanisms (Dullien 2014; Italianer and Vanheukelen 1993). The
banking union of the EA can also be seen in this light (Section 7.2.3).
78
3.3 From Channels to Interfaces of Risk Sharing
With hindsight, it is obvious that the growth and integration of nancial

markets created volatility. This does not exclude that they shared and
smoothed the volatility of the real economy at the same time, for instance,
output of credit-constrained rms while consumption became more idiosyn-
cratic thanks to differences in welfare states and in household credit. Even so,
this means that a lot of risk is endogenous, generated by nancial integration
itself, rather than originating in a source outside the nancial system
(Brunnermeier and Sannikov 2013: 333). In fact, the diversity of member
states, as indicated by asynchronous business cycles, may be reinforced, if
not created, by cross-border nancial ows (Cesa-Bianchi et al. 2016).
The single currency proved to be a tremendous driver of nancial integra-
tion, accompanied as it was by a common monetary policy, harmonized
nancial regulation, and, last but not least, a deep government bond market
with no exchange rate risk (Obstfeld 2013). Furthermore, it is now evident
that stabilizing monetary policy can increase market tolerance of risk and give
rise to a volatility paradox (Brunnermeier and Sannikov 2013: 342, 352): the
more successful monetary and scal policies are in underwriting the risks that
nancial institutions take, the more risks market actors may take. This fosters
the growth of banks as well as their cross-border integration, one feeding on
the other. The bigger institutions of private nance get, the less able is a
national scal authority to underwrite the risks of runs on their deposits or
of their bankruptcy, not least to prevent the losses of small savers (Obstfeld
2013: 1112, 55). The central bank with its deep pockets then has to be called
upon to underpin the system as lender of last resort.
If risk is largely endogenous, the framing of risk sharing as operating
through channels is untenable. The terminology of channels implies
that each risk-sharing mechanism is independent of the others. By contrast,
the volatility paradox implies that stabilization in one channel leads to more
risk taking through another. This nancial market risk taking relies ultimately
on scal and monetary capacities of stabilization. As is more fully explained in
Chapter 6, a negative feedback loop between deteriorating bank balance
sheets and deteriorating public nances may ensue that calls for a central
banks direct lending of last resort to governments (De Grauwe 2011). But
central banks also need scal backing if they are to take credit risk on their
balance sheets: the ECB was quite explicit on this and requested that member
states create an emergency fund before they engage in a bond-buying program
(Barber 2010).
The nancial crisis and its aftermath have highlighted this set of inter-
dependencies or interfaces between the channels, but there are others
which Table 3.1 summarizes. On the diagonal (entries 1, 5, and 9), the table
79
Table 3.1. Channels and issues arising at interfaces of risk sharing
Monetary policy Fiscal policy Supervised nancial markets
Fiat money 1 Price stability: 2 (Fiscal backstops; 3 (Monetary-nancial

Independent central variable scal multipliers) transmission)
banks targeting goods
price and wage
ination
Oversight of payments
system
Public 4 (Negative feedback 5 Debt sustainability/ 6 (Negative feedback loops)
nance loops) employment
stabilization:
scal rules and surveillance
leaving capacity for
structural reform;
automatic stabilizers
Private 7 (Monetary-nancial 8 (Fiscal backstops; 9 Financial stability:
nance transmission) variable scal multipliers) independent prudential
regulation
Self-insurance through
deposit guarantees and
resolution funds (Basel
consensus)
Source: own elaboration
describes the standard policy assignments that underpin the risk-sharing

literature. The diagonal describes a way of assigning instruments to policy
objectives or targets that became rmly institutionalized in the 1990s.
Monetary policy is assigned to target ination generated by wage and price
setting, focusing on income ows rather than asset prices. Effective transmis-
sion of counter-cyclical monetary policy smooths aggregate demand, and
central banks oversee the payments system to ensure a smooth transmission
of interest rate signals to the economy (Obstfeld 2013: 28). Fiscal policy
contributes to stabilization automatically, through the operation of the tax
and benet system which pools risks across individuals. Financial regulation
or self-regulation and supervision is meant to ensure that risks are allocated
among shareholders or borrowers and lenders efciently.
The consensus that nancial, monetary, and scal stability should be guar-
anteed by separate institutions extended the long-standing idea that eco-
nomic policy problems can be made tractable by ensuring that there are as
many instruments as targets (Tinbergen 1952). Institutionalizing the assign-
ments reected economists distrust of political discretion in policymaking.
Hence the support for independent central banks, independent nancial
supervisors, and scal authorities bound by economically sensible rules
(Goodhart and Schoenmaker 1995; Schelkle 2012b: 3541). In Chapter 5,
80
I argue that politicians and policymakers accepted this approach and reduced
their discretion in this way to solve collective action problems. Delegation to
independent agencies, rules, and the threat of punishment are one way of
overcoming multiple veto points in areas such as macroeconomic stabiliza-
tion, where quick decisions are required or compliance is essential (Tsebelis
2002: 187206, 24882).
Political support for the consensus in favor of government self-restraint
cannot simply be explained by a hegemonic economic discourse. There was
always criticism of this consensus, not only from the heterodox corner but
also from macroeconomists with research interests in monetary policy and
nancial markets (e.g. Buiter et al. 1993; Goodhart and Smith 1993; Tobin
1990). One of the key ideas in more recent macroeconomic critiques is that
the consensus fails to recognize policy interactions and interdependencies
that make policy assignments unstable.11 Financial markets, public budgets,
and, crucially, central banking are not autonomous and isolated mechanisms
for pooling risks, once the task of achieving nancial stability is taken into
account. These cross-effects have become apparent since the nancial crisis
and have proved to have particular relevance for the euro area.
3.3.1 Negative Feedback Loops

A prime example of interdependence between monetary, scal, and nancial
policies is the negative feedback loop, which affects the interfaces of private and
public nance (entries 4 and 6 in Table 3.1). Also termed the doom or
diabolic loop, it describes the problem that governments must stand behind
the banking system, providing funds for recapitalization in a crisis. However,
this destabilizes their own nances, and can produce a sovereign debt crisis,
weakening banks further if they hold sovereign debt as capital (Modyi and
Sandri 2012; Farhi and Tirole 2014). In its simplest form, the negative feed-
back loop is a consequence of the disproportionate size of nancial institu-
tions relative to national budgets, as Obstfeld (2013: 9) stresses:
When scal resources are limited relative to the potential problems at hand,
however, and the option of unlimited money nancing is unavailable, the cred-
ibility of government support becomes questionable. The credibility decit, in
turn, makes the nancial system more fragile, thereby raising the probability of a
crisis requiring ofcial intervention. This further weakens the sovereigns market
borrowing terms, which in turn further undermines private-sector nancial
stability, and so on.
11
See Acharya et al. (2009), Brunnermeier et al. (2009), Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2013: 334,
361), Leeper and Nason (2015: 3, 45), and Obstfeld (2013: 25) for a critical re-evaluation of this
conventional view in light of the nancial crises since 2007.
81
Monetary nancing of the sovereign may be able to stop a liquidity problem

escalating into endemic insolvency, provided a currency crisis can be avoided
(entry 4 in Table 3.1; De Grauwe 2011). The negative feedback loop thus
engages all three elements of monetary solidarity: the central bank maintain-
ing the integrity of the money market, scal authorities trying to contain
spillovers from domestic instability, and integrated nancial markets that
can both absorb and shift risks. This is a considerable difculty for collective
action as it touches on the pre-crisis consensus on central bank independence
and the taboo of monetizing public debt.
3.3.2 Fiscal Backstops

The macroeconomic literature recognizes now that systemic banking crises
and effective lending of last resort by the central bank require scal backstops
(Sims 2012: 222; Leeper and Nason 2015: 46).12 While a government requires
monetary backing to escape the negative feedback loop, monetary authorities
require scal backing to contain and manage their role as lender of last resort
to the nancial system. They need governments to recapitalize and resolve
banks, protecting in particular small savers from losses (entry 8 in Table 3.1).
This scal support contains the risk that the central banks provision of
liquidity support postpones the resolution of solvency problems and perpetu-
ates moral hazard among bankers. A central bank also may be reluctant for
institutional reasons to take on risky assets in the course of providing liquidity
support. Such measures may make the reversal of lax monetary policies more
difcult, since default on assets will use up a central banks loss-absorbing
capital.13 While the central bank cannot become insolvent as it can create
more interest-bearing reserves without physical limit, this can aggravate ina-
tionary pressures and is also likely to lead to devaluation of the currency.
A currency that is printed only to give a lifeline to moribund banks is not
attractive to hold. For all these reasons, the potential or actual assumption of
solvency risks by the scal authorities is required (entry 2 in Table 3.1). They
can give this backing directly or indirectly, by underwriting deposit guaran-
tees, or establishing resolution funds that are nanced by contributions from
insured institutions themselves. These types of measure relieve the central
bank from having to lend to banks on the borderline of insolvency.
12
The Five Presidents report on completing Europes [EMU] acknowledges this: In the short
term, this risk-sharing [of asymmetric shocks] can be achieved through integrated nancial and
capital markets (private risk sharing) combined with the necessary common backstops, i.e. a last
resort nancial safety net, to the Banking Union (Juncker et al. 2015: 4). But nowhere does the
report acknowledge that shocks may be endogenous to nancial integration.
13
The loss-absorbing capital of the ECB amounts to 10.8 billion since December 2010 (ECB
website Capital subscription).
82
Acknowledging that central banks need direct or indirect scal backing

amounts to the recognition that at moneythat has no commodity as an
external constraint to limit its issueis state money as Goodhart (1998) put
it. He criticized OCA theory for missing this political economy foundation of
modern money. However, as he also noted, the architects of the EA have
deliberately excluded such scal backing of the ECB. Member states do hold
shares in the central banks loss-absorbing capital, however, and could be
called upon if the ECB was forced to take solvency risks on its books. More-
over, the European System of Central Banks is a rudimentary scal risk pool to
the extent that central banks can absorb national bank bailouts of EA-wide
signicance through their earnings on the money issue (seignorage), which is
revenue to the participating governments (Pauly 2009: fn 3).
3.3.3 Monetary-Financial Transmission

The transmission of monetary policy (entries 3 and 7 in Table 3.1) has come
under renewed scrutiny as it has become clear that a low interest rate envir-
onment can boost the economy by allowing more risk taking by investors, but
also can encourage collectively excessive risk taking (Borio and Zhu 2012:
2424). Risk taking by households seems particularly susceptible to destabil-
izing dynamics: low interest rates make nancing homeownership cheap and
raise the present value of the security for mortgage credit, giving rise to a
feedback loop of rising credit and rising housing values (Brunnermeier and
Sannikov 2013: 341). It is unlikely that there was no sense among policy-
makers in the EU, or indeed the US, that something like this was happening
before the nancial crisis, but the institutionalized assignment of instruments
to targets may have contributed to the failure to respond.
Another problem of monetary transmission is that monetary policy, by
changing (the term structure of) interest rates and thus the relative prices of
assets, also generates wealth effects. It is now recognized that this wealth
redistribution channel makes monetary policy akin to social insurance
(Brunnermeier and Sannikov 2013: 333) in that it allocates risks to different
agents differently and substitutes for missing private insurance markets, even
when prices are exible. For instance, a protracted phase of near zero interest
rates gives banks time to recapitalize themselves out of high margins between
their renancing costs and what they can earn on asset investments. But this
shifts the cost of recapitalization to insurers and pension funds, and ultim-
ately to their policy holders. They will earn low returns on their less risky asset
holdings while they do not benet from the low renancing rates offered by
the central bank. This is redistribution from stronger nancial sectors to the
weaker banking sector. It occurs even though the banks have brought their
weakness largely on themselves.
83
3.3.4 Variable Fiscal Multipliers

Finally, recent economic research has highlighted that scal multipliers
(entries 2, 8 in Table 3.1) are not constant but depend on the stage of the
business cycle (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko 2011; Corsetti et al. 2012). In a
deep recession or a liquidity trap, when the central bank has already lowered
interest rates towards the zero bound, scal spendingand cuts in spending
have a very strong effect on private demand and income. This means that any
attempt to reduce the budget decit, typically by cutting spending in line with
falling tax revenue, will be very costly because it will cause a collapse of private
economic activity. This was, of course, pointed out by Keynes (1936: ch.17),
who focused on scal policy as he considered monetary policy to be ineffect-
ive under the conditions of the Great Depression, that is when pessimism of
investors is so overwhelming that any monetary stimulus is neutralized by
more money holding.
For governments to be able to act in a stabilizing way, they must be able to
incur debt, but if there is a ight to safety among investors, some sovereigns
will be unable to nance decit spending. This is a primary reason why scal
risk sharing among states is necessary. Fiscal risk sharing can take the form of
government-to-government lending through emergency funds under condi-
tions that do not switch off automatic stabilizers, or it can be achieved by joint
liability for the debt issued so as to prevent pro-cyclical government bond
market pressures for austerity. Discretionary stimulus in those member states
with scal space will also benet constrained economies if they have suf-
ciently close trade links: foreign demand can compensate for lack of domestic
demand to some extent.
3.4 The Limitations of Financial Risk Sharing
The approach to risk sharing pioneered by Bent Srensen and Oved Yosha is a
useful antidote to the preoccupation with exible labor marketsand the
alleged requirement to converge on a liberal type of labor marketthat is
found in the theory of optimum currency areas. What we can take from this
literature is, rst, that monetary integration is indistinguishable from nancial
integration and, second, that the latter can be a major source of risk sharing
through markets.
The review of the risk-sharing literature in the previous section highlighted
two interrelated limitations: its theoretically and methodologically driven
focus on output shocks and its emphasis on market channels of risk sharing,
especially capital market integration. The possibility that nancial integration
might have directly destabilizing effects on consumption is excluded by
84
assumption, with some notable exceptions (Huizinga and Zhu 2004, Kose
et al. 2007, Mlitz and Zumer 1999). This optimism about nancial integra-
tion reected US experience during the Great Moderation, when the regime
of nancial repression was lifted and a period of macroeconomic stability
ensued. However, the volatility of household earnings and consumption did
not go down during this period (Gottschalk and Moftt 2009; Dynan 2010).
Financial market integration did promote output smoothing but it also
helped individuals, collective investors, and even states to incur more risks.
There were high returns to this risk taking but they ended up beneting
disproportionately the salaries of nancial managers and not the incomes of
their clients (Denk 2015). Furthermore, we know now that nancial markets
can easily break down as channels of risk sharing and contribute to the
accumulation of excessive risks instead. Monetary-nancial integration cre-
ates new risks, not least because it can give rise to both productive and
unproductive risk taking. One therefore has to think more rigorously about a
system of risk sharing, with various interfaces of its elements, and not merely
let a methodology of national accounts determine what can be captured.
Even if nancial markets were more efcient, it is unlikely that the promise
of consumption smoothing would have ever created enough political momen-
tum to make governments, business, and organized labor support the euro
experiment. The risk-sharing literature fails to capture the political drivers of
the single currency. This is an issue for political economists and not meant as a
criticism of economists contributing to this literature. Decision makers and
their advisors looked for other benets as the historical accounts of Dyson
and Featherstone (1999) and more recently James (2012) show. If credibly
stability-oriented, a single currency holds the promise of higher investment
through lower and more stable interest rates. These should result from the rise
in liquidity of asset markets, the use of a common currency in trade with other
member states, the assurance of freedom of capital inside a monetary union,
and the presence of a lender of last resort to a deeper nancial system.14
Hence, we need a by-product theory of collective action on risk sharing and
to show that risk sharing is an enduring feature underlying these more obvi-
ous benets.
The EA, as originally conceived, preserved channels of risk sharing, largely
by adhering to conventions about the assignment of instruments to targets:
monetary policy to price stability, scal policy to growth through structural
reform, prudent regulation to nancial stability. But in particular the neat
assignment of responsibilities for price and nancial stability has proved
untenable, empirically and theoretically. The new empirical fact is the
14
This is further elaborated in Section 5.1.2.
85
increasing size of nancial markets vis--vis each member state of the union.
Institutional interfaces, such as scal backstops for bank resolution and for
lending of last resort to banks, were deliberately left underdeveloped
(Chapter 5). The emphasis, in central banks and nance ministries of coun-
tries as different as France, Germany, and Britain, was on reducing the risks to
price stability (Verdun 2000: 162, 165).15 Catch-up growth was soon triggered
by historically low interest rates inside the EA. The potential for boom-bust
cycles in some member states quickly materialized. A common shock, in the
guise of the US subprime market crisis that made interbank markets freeze,
unleashed a destructive dynamic that overwhelmed any single channel of risk
sharing (Chapter 6). Reforms since 2009 have made the euro area more resili-
ent and hesitantly more solidaristic; the analytical framework of interfaces
sheds light on this but also shows the limitations that remain (Chapter 7).
The search for monetary solidarity in the EA in Chapters 57 is preceded by
a discussion of US monetary-nancial history. This provides some perspective
on what is supposedly the example of a diverse union that works and should
have been followed by the Europeans. In contrast to the euro experiment, the
dollar experiment started with a fairly complete system of risk sharing, the
Hamilton Plan, but no national currency. Yet, political forces in favor of
devolution and unfettered growth in the states undid every element of the
Plan within two decades. It took many nancial crises and nally the Great
Depression to shift the political balance in favor of a viable system which
addressed the interfaces of risk sharing.
15
Their success can be gleaned from the evolution of countries risk-return tradeoffs
(Section 7.1).
86
Appendix
Table 3.1A. Estimates of cross-border channels of consumption risk sharing
Risk-sharing channel States and time span Range of estimatesa Sources and comments
Capital markets (interstate: US states

mostly prot, interest, (196490) 39% ASY96 (table 1)
and rent from cross- (196390) 24% MZ (table 3)
border capital (196096) 58% BH (table 1)
ownership) (197098) 45% M (table 7, includes retained
prots and capital
depreciation)
OECD countries
(196094) 57% MZ (table 10)
(196096) 1% BH (table 1)
(197099) n.s. M (table 2, not directly
comparable with US)
(19922000)LR 5% BKOS (table 5, capital gains
(20007) 7% only, factor income ows
n.s.)
EU or EA* statesb
(196094) 813% MZ
(196096) 5% and 6%* BH
(197193) 9% ASY98 (includes capital
depreciation)
(197099) n.s. and 0%* M
(20007) n.s. and 14%* BKOS
(19902007) n.s. and 12%* KOLS (EA consists of Greece,
Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and
Spain only)
Credit markets US states
(intertemporal: (196490) 23% ASY96
household savings, (196390) 24% MZ
government net (196096) 28% BH
lending, and retained (197098) 21% M
prots) OECD countries
(196094) 15% and 813% MZ (15% from current-
account imbalances,
813% from savings)
(196096) 36% BH
(197099) 50% M (corporate and
government saving)
(19922000) 51% BKOS
(20007) 53%
EU or EA* statesb
(196094) 12% and 913% MZ (12% from current-
account imbalances,
913% from savings)
(196096) 42% and 43%* BH
(197193) 50% ASY98
(197099) 51% and 53%* M (corporate and
government saving)
(20007) 45% and 24%* BKOS
(19907) 49% and 31%* KOLS (EA consists of GIIPS
only)
(continued )
87
Table 3.1A. Continued
Risk-sharing channel States and time span Range of estimatesa Sources and comments
Fiscal policy (international US states

transfers/scal transfers (196490) 13% ASY (unemployment
and stabilizers) insurance attributed to
federal budget)
(196390) 13% MZ
(196096) 5% BH
(197098) 14% M
OECD countries
(197099) n.s. M
EU or EA* statesb
(197193) 3% ASY98
(197099) n.s. and 2%* M
(19902007) n.s. and n.s.* KOLS
Unsmoothed share of US states
output shock (196490) 25% ASY96
(196390) 39% MZ (directly estimated, not as
a residual)
(196096) 9% BH (own calculation)
(197098) 20% M
OECD countries
(196094) 80% MZ (directly estimated)
(196096) 63% BH (own calculation as
residual)
(197099) 59% M
(19922000) 41% BKOS
(20007) 36%
EU or EA* statesb
(196094) 77% MZ (directly estimated)
(196096) 53% and 51%* BH (own calculation as
residual)
(197193) 56% ASY98
(197099) 59% and 56%* M
(20007) 56%* BKOS (6% count for capital
gains which are not
signicant, however)
(19902007) 53% and 61%* KOLS ( 7% and 5%* from
capital depreciation)
Notes: a = gures give percentage share of output shock compensated; b = * marks EA estimate in contrast to estimates
applying to the EU
Key to sources: ASY96 = Asdrubali et al. 1996; ASY98 = Arreaza et al. 1998; BH = Becker and Hoffmann 2006; BKOS = Balli
et al. 2012; KOLS = Kalemli-Ozcan et al. 2014; M = Marinheiro 2003; MZ = Mlitz and Zumer 1999
88
Part II
Evolving Monetary Unions
of Limited Risk Sharing
4
A Short History of Risk Sharing

in the US Monetary Union
History doesnt repeat itself, but it does rhyme, Mark Twain supposedly
said.1 The rich literature on US nancial history provides insights of striking
relevance for the EA today. This chapter reviews that history, not in order to
derive lessons as some of the recent literature does (Gaspar 2015), but rather
to show how the analytical framework presented in previous chapters illu-
minates issues of monetary union generally. Reviewing the US experience in
the light of the EA crisis gives us a better understanding of the political-
economic paradox of diversity. Needless to say, the collective action problems
of markets and governments in the US are different from those in the EA, but
the comparison shows corresponding patterns and functional problems of
heterogeneous monetary unions.
The US repeatedly experienced severe nancial instability up until the rst
half of the twentieth century, including negative feedback loops between
banks and scal authorities in the states. Stability increased as risk sharing
was extended. However, it remains limited in some striking ways. States and
municipalities in the US can go bankrupt, and the no-bailout clause for states
is more strictly enforced than it is in the EA (Henning and Kessler 2012). So
some incompleteness remains and is indeed deliberate.
The debate over the wisdom or folly of European monetary union has often
been fought between the coronation theory, which proposes that a com-
mon currency is the pinnacle of political union, and the leverage theory
that the adoption of a common currency can serve as a driver towards political
union. Supporters of the coronation theory often cite the US case in support,
but the rst section shows that the relationship between political and
1
See Frieden (2015b) which has inspired this chapter. Helleiner (2003) is a major comparative
study of the evolution of currency unions, McNamara (2003) is a similar attempt at comparing
political and monetary integration in nineteenth-century US to late twentieth-century Europe.
monetary integration did not follow this script. There is even some support for
the leverage theory, but both suffer from an unduly simplistic understanding
of political union, which is usually equated with scal union. Remarkably, the
US had important elements of scal union before it had monetary union, and
scal union was not enough to bring about monetary stability. More risk-
sharing institutions, notably the establishment of a stable central bank, were
needed. In the following discussion, the second section goes through the
crisis-prone history of the contestation over monetary-nancial institutions
in the US, while the third section explains how the interfaces between at
money, public and private nances were developed. The last section sums up
what rhymes in US and EA history.
The building of a diverse US dollar area was marked by the inherent tension
between proponents of easier local credit conditions and those who favored
tight money to make the greenback a respectable international currency. This
tension had a sectoral and a geographic dimension: the poorer, more rural,
and more agricultural South and West depended for their well-being on elastic
credit supply while the more urban, industrializing, and nance-dominated
Northeast and Midwest wanted above all monetary stability.2 The political-
economic conicts were extremely divisive and had the potential to destroy
the young republic. But there is no irredeemable economic conict between
elastic credit and tight money, just as there is no irredeemable conict
between low interest rates and low ination in the EA. How conictual or
compatible these different goals are depends on the risk-sharing arrangements
in place.
4.1 The Relationship between Monetary and Political

Integration
What was to become the United States started as a confederation of settler

colonies, united primarily in their rejection of an overpowering central state.
The contestation over the sequencing of steps towards integration, as we
perceive them today, appeared as a political ght between devolutionists
and federalists. The devolutionists insisted on political self-determination for
the states and were primarily interested in economic integration through a
common physical and legal infrastructure. Money was not part of this infra-
structure. Defenders of states rights prevented the US from getting a central
2
Frieden (2015a: 50). See Ferguson (1962) on the origins of this division which was not there
right from the start, at the Constitutional Convention. His extensive research suggests that
questions of public nance mobilized a Southern interest as much if not more than the stance
on slavery (Ferguson 1962: 4513).
92
A Short History of Risk Sharing in the US Monetary Union
bank before 1913, although there were at least two predecessors which failed.
A federal scal backstop for the nancial system had to wait for the New Deal
in 1935, although the central government had helped states and their banks
in nancial difculties before. War was a vulnerability of the devolutionist
position: its nancial legacy was invariably high public debt and a monetary
overhang that forced at least some states to seek bailouts from the federal
government. Ambitious public infrastructure projects, which included the
promotion of banks, tended to overstretch state nances as well. Regular
boom-bust cycles triggered a series of institutional experiments with the
interface between commercial nance, proto-central banks, and federal public
nance. The federalists for their part recognized early on that if they relieved
the states from their debt, they could extract in return some concessions
regarding the centralization of policy competences. The proto-central banks
tended to err on the side of tight monetary control, however, so as to prevent a
run on reserves. This was resented by a coalition of economic sectors and
political forces, both for its concentration of power over states and for what
they perceived as sacricing growth for overall stability.
The risk-sharing arrangements that eventually emerged in the twentieth
century were not designed to provide an economically optimal solution;
rather, arrangements responded to aws revealed in the most recent boom-
bust cycle. The burden of proof was typically on those who favored centraliz-
ing solutions. This is compatible with the interpretation that public goods
production for the union was a by-product of selective incentives in the states.
Integration had to meet concrete economic challenges if veto players in states
were to permit minimal union building. Broz (1997, 1998), contributors to
Eichengreen and Frieden (2001), and Frieden (2015a), broadly support this
proposition while emphasizing the role of political contestation. Moss (2002)
and Moss and Brennan (2001) see more intentionality in the emergence of
public risk management. They stress, above all, the role of enlightened civil
servants and policy entrepreneurs.
The late establishment of the central bank seems to support the coronation
theory whereby monetary integration follows political union. But this inter-
pretation can only be upheld by ignoring a succession of prior measures
affecting money, banking, and public debt. There is some support for the
leverage theory, particularly in the so-called Hamilton Plan of 1791, which
envisaged the mutualization of public debt and the creation of a central bank
that would issue a national currency in the modern sense. The intention to
leverage ever closer political union was transparent, building on the rst step
that had already been taken with the constitution. But the Hamilton Plan was
undone after less than three decades.
Todays national currency, the greenback, was introduced more than
seventy years later, shortly after the political union had broken up with the
93
secession of the Southern slave states. The greenback was the currency of the
victorious North and became the national currency only once the agrarian
South was militarily and politically defeated. While the Northern states could
be seen as leveraging monetary integration, it certainly did not further ever
closer union. This raises some doubts about the identity-generating qualities
of a single currency that scholars like Helleiner (2003) and McNamara (2003: 9)
claim. The common currency proved politically divisive because the Southern
and Western states felt short-changed by the golden fetters of the monetary
regime (Frieden 2015a: ch.2). At the same time, the United States remained an
economy subject to more nancial and monetary panic than most other
advanced economies of the Western hemisphere (Broz 1997: 5). This ended
after the New Deal introduced a federal deposit guarantee and resolution
authority for the nancial system, in the guise of the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation (FDIC). Crucially, the simultaneous abandonment of the specie
standard allowed the central bank to combine tight ination control with
elastic credit supply, although managing this remains a tension that keeps
central bankers on their toes. Financial repression was also exercised, particu-
larly by maintaining administered interest rates in retail banking.3 The federal
tax-transfer system developed only slowly, and the contribution of the welfare
state to macroeconomic stabilization remained limited.
At rst sight, there are parallels in the sequencing of monetary and political
integration in the US and in Europe. The joint currency was introduced before
a full-edged scal union in the macroeconomic sense. However, a central
bank was introduced quite some time after the country had been politically
reunited. The common currency was meant to leverage closer political union
on terms that suited the modern economy of the victorious North. This
currency union remained nancially unstable and politically divided for at
least two decades. Economic-nancial integration proceeded regardless. This
rhymes insofar as monetary integration came into its own in the EU in the
2000s while the project of building a political union stalled (Hodson 2009).
The common currency exercised a politically unifying effect only when other
institutions came to underpin it and embed it in a system of macroeconomic
stabilization. It took the United States about 150 years for this system to
evolve, from Hamiltons Plan to the New Deal (Frieden 2015b).
While the evolution of the US federation did not follow the coronation
approach, it also provides counter-evidence to the leverage view that a com-
mon currency furthers ever closer political union. The currency prolonged
3
Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences
(such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulation of cross-border capital
movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks (Reinhart and
Sbrancia 2011: abstract).
94
the divisions of the civil war into peacetime. Only once the political-economic
conict was settled politically did currency arrangements stop being so div-
isive. Boom-bust cycles still occurred, however. These stopped only once
at money, tight nancial regulation, and stabilizing interfaces of private
and public nance had been created, mainly in the aftermath of the Great
Depression.
4.2 The Emerging Interfaces of Money, Banking,

and Federal Public Finances
The rst attempt to establish a union was ratied by thirteen states in

1781, during the War of Independence. The Articles of Confederation and
Perpetual Union established a Continental Congress as its (unelected)
central government. It had no enforceable taxation rights (Ferguson 1962:
455). To pay suppliers and soldiers, the Congress issued debt that it had
no means to repay. It also printed paper money, the Continental dollar,
which depreciated during and after the war, surviving to this day in the
expression not worth a Continental (Hall and Sargent 2014: 148). The
unit of account was the Spanish dollar, a silver coin minted by the Spanish
Empire. Against this background, the 1789 Constitution dened the bare
minimum of what was needed for a functioning federation. It consisted of
three Articles that laid down the principles of a federal government based on
the separation of legislative, executive, and judicial powers, three Articles
about the rights and responsibilities of the states in the federation, and one
Article that established the ratication procedure. It was the foundation for a
rudimentary political union. Citizens rights, such as freedom of speech, came
as an afterthought, in a set of Amendments of which the rst ten later formed
the Bill of Rights.
The sustainability of state public debt was a major concern from the begin-
ning. The union of states emerged out of war and its devastating effect, not
only on lives but also on public nances. The ongoing struggle to nd sources
of revenue created a scal-nancial nexus that was repeatedly a source of
negative feedback loops and nancial panic. The evolution of a national
banking system that slowly crowded out the state bank system was crucial to
the reduction of this risk. But a lender of last resort was slow to emerge because
the states resisted the centralization of monetary powers. The creation of a
national central bank took until the early twentieth century, when a reason-
ably stable conguration of interfaces between public and private nance as
well as at money was established, almost 150 years after the Hamilton Plan
had envisioned such a complete system of macroeconomic risk sharing.
95
4.2.1 Alexander Hamiltons Plan for Central Risk Pooling

In 1781, as the War of Independence (177583) was still being fought,
Alexander Hamilton wrote in a letter: A national debt, if it is not excessive,
will be to us a national blessing. It will be a powerful cement of our Union
(quoted in McNamara 2003: 10n). He reckoned that the joint liability of federal
debt could become a visible symbol for the strength of the federation if the
whole was more creditworthy than its parts. He was to become the rst nance
minister of the United States, under President George Washington, and he
proceeded to act on his insight. He relieved the states from their war-related
debt and made the nationalized debt a source of states revenue for which they
in turn agreed to a constitution which created considerable central powers.
The 1789 Constitution gave the federal government the power to tax as well
as the sole right to issue coinage. Because of a lack of minting capacity,
Hamilton authorized the circulation of the Spanish dollar as legal tender
several times. Only in 1853 was this foreign currency replaced with the
domestic silver coin.4 The Constitution was silent about note issuance by
the federal government. There was principled opposition to paper money in
the constitutional assembly, which foreshadowed later conicts between
monetary conservatives at the federal level and expansionists in some states
(Giannini 2011: 66; Hall and Sargent 2014: 155).
The states were expressly prohibited from taxing exports and imports and
issuing paper money (Sylla et al. 1987). These provisions took away important
sources of state revenue at a time when many states had accumulated more
debt during the War of Independence than they could service in peacetime.
While state representatives were ready to agree to expand the prerogatives of
the federal government only if they were relieved of their debt, the federalists,
in turn, were willing to concede this demand because they reckoned that the
overindebtedness of some states jeopardized the credit of all (Henning and
Kessler 2012: 68).
The rst part of the debt plan relieved states from their debt by taking
certicates of state-incurred debt and turning them into federal securities
(Trescott 1955: 232). The second element of the so-called Funding Act of
1790 was to turn the debt of the Confederation into new federal issues. Federal
debt had often been issued to pay soldiers and suppliers. They tended to sell it,
and the states had thus come to hold about a third of outstanding federal debt.
The interest on these federal bonds became for the rst years of the union a
considerable source of state revenue, on average a fth of their income and for
some up to half (Trescott 1955: 228, 245). The third part of the plan was to
4
Encyclopaedia Britannica, Macropaedia article Coins and Coinage. Legal tender means that
being paid in money with this status cannot be refused even if a private contract stipulates
something else (for instance, the delivery of a commodity).
96
settle state accounts with the intention of equalizing the per capita cost of the
war effort. What was not considered under the Hamilton Plan was compen-
sation of citizens who held Continentals, the defunct paper money. If the
union had redeemed them at par value, it would have doubled the federal
debt. In a later currency reform, these citizens received only a dollar in specie
for every 100 Continentals (Hall and Sargent 2014: 153).
The federal government restructured state debt before it assumed it.5 Hold-
ers of non-performing state and Confederation bonds were given a package of
federal bonds worth a fraction of their face value. This exchange amounted to
a sizeable haircut, but it was still well above market value, and also brought
the resumption of interest payments on which the states were in arrears.
After debt service resumed, the former state, now federal, bonds began to
trade at only 1020 percent under par while they had traded at a 60 percent
discount of their face value. Federal and state governments got access to
domestic and international nancial markets again (Frieden 2015b). It is
notable that the compensation of bondholders, many of whom were foreign-
ers, was considerably more generous than the compensation of those who
owned Continental dollars.
An integral part of Hamiltons Plan was the foundation of the First Bank of
the United States, given a twenty-year charter in 1791 (McNamara 2003: 10).
Like its model, the Bank of England, it was a privately owned proto-central
bank. It issued the US dollar which was, however, not a national currency but
only legal tender for scal purposes, that is for payments by and to the
Treasury. A standard means of payment at the time were banknotes: states
had got around the constitutional prohibition on creating money by charter-
ing banks to issue money (Sylla et al. 1987: 392). These banknotes had to be
redeemable into a reserve medium that the banks could not produce ad
libitum, so as to prevent the excessive issue of banknotes. Prudential regulation
required banks to hold reserve assets in a specied fraction of their banknote
issue. The stipulated reserves varied over time, but typically consisted of
specie, such as gold or silver, and legal tender: the dollars issued by the First
Bank. The First Bank was meant to centralize the reserve holdings of state
banks, allowing the nancial system to hold fewer reserves in the aggregate
without making any individual bank less safe. The law of large numbers
suggests that the likelihood of all banks having to exchange their banknotes
for reserves becomes smaller and smaller as more members join the risk pool.
5
Restructuring of debt is, in contrast to simple debt write-off, not repudiating the repayment of
obligations. Rather, it formally upholds the obligation but changes the terms and conditions such
that the effective debt repayment is reduced. This can happen in a variety of ways that typically
amount to either a lower interest rate or a longer repayment period. Debt restructuring and write-
off converge if the interest rate approaches zero and maturity becomes innite.
97
Given its size and the function of turning banknotes into specie (coins) if
required, the First Bank soon assumed a much more important role than its
power to issue legal tender for scal purposes would lead one to expect. By
setting the terms on which it would exchange banknotes for specie, it could
inuence the state banks credit supply (Giannini 2011: 67).
With hindsight, it is easy to recognize that the Hamilton Plan built, in one
ingenious stroke, a more perfect union. Yet it was also highly controversial, for
reasons that resonate with debates today (Frieden 2015b). Many resented the
centralization of public debt management and banking in principle
(McNamara 2003: 11). There was vocal opposition from agrarian states in
particular, even when they themselves got debt relief, because they saw relief
as disproportionately beneting nancial interests in urban areas and abroad
(Ferguson 1962: 4579). Handsome prots were made by speculators who had
bought some of the wartime junk bonds for next to nothing (Trescott 1955:
131). Moreover, the proto-central bank restricted the supply of credit in order
to establish a stable and creditworthy union, but this was seen in many states
as holding back their growth.
In the long run, the restricted supply of credit proved destructive for
Hamiltons reforms. The number of state banks was expanding rapidly. The
fractional reserve system drove them into using the First Bank which in turn
could restrict their expansion by controlling the creation of specie/coinage.
This mobilized state governments who looked for ways to make up for the
scal straitjacket they were put in when their power to tax foreign trade was
clipped and seignorage from direct note issue eliminated. To compensate for
this, governments founded or licensed ever more state-chartered banks, giving
them the protable privilege of note issue and in return taxing their capital or
holding income-yielding shares in them. At least one fth and in most states a
third of ordinary revenue came from these state-chartered banks (Sylla et al.
1987: 400). Thus, a powerful constituency against the First Bank formed
within the state bank system which prevented the renewal of its charter in
1811 (Giannini 2011: 68).
The Anglo-American War of 1812 nally undid much of Hamiltons
attempt at restoring the creditworthiness of the public sector. Federal and
state governments had to resort to issuing excessive debt again, at deep
discounts which made nancing the war effort a vast expense (Hall and
Sargent 2014: 1568). The rst attempt at building a closer monetary union
thus failed. The by-product of scal risk sharing was not an institutional
equilibrium. Hamiltons Plan spread the risk of overindebtedness across the
union of states, but it did not spread the risk of meeting the uncertain scal
demands of growing economies: this was shifted one-sidedly onto the states.
This, coupled with the tight credit policy of the First Bank, led to the demise of
the rudimentary monetary union.
98
4.2.2 Experimenting with Federalism and Free Banking

When the Anglo-American War ended in 1815, history seemed to repeat itself.
The federal government assumed states debt (Henning and Kessler 2012: 10)
and a Second Bank of the US was founded to deal with the nancial mayhem.
It exchanged the inated banknote issue for specie, writing down debt in the
process; as before, it issued a legal tender for scal purposes (Broz 1998: 239;
Capie et al. 1994: 7). Its twenty-year charter (181636) coincided with an era
of internal improvement. States invested massively in physical and nancial
infrastructure. This raised their (domestic and foreign) debt to levels that were
50 percent above the debts they had incurred in the two wars before combined
(Wallis et al. 2004: 1). The Second Bank, under its competent President Biddle,
nanced some of this infrastructure, thus acting as a development bank, not
least to build constituencies in the states. But it also tried to rein in credit
expansion with a view to external stability: whenever the dollar exchange rate
fell, state banks were requested to convert their banknotes, thus contracting
credit and generating demand for the dollar. This quest for stability put Biddle
at loggerheads with President Andrew Jackson, known still today as the incar-
nation of populist conservatism. The President challenged the Banks policies
as an exercise of federal power, and rallied the states behind him in a Bank
War that the central bank was bound to lose (Giannini 2011: 6871). The
charter of the Second Bank was not renewed.
What followed was a period of experimentation with state-sponsored nan-
cial innovation, as well as free (unchartered) entry into the market by note-
issuing banks. These experiments were backed by those who favored devolution
of powers and elastic credit (Helleiner 2003: 12339). Free entry made the
expanding union very crisis-prone. Some states sought their own remedies and
introduced obligatory insurance for bank liabilities, New York being the front
runner in 1829 (Moss and Brennan 2001: 14851). This safety fund system, with
some variations introduced in six states, insured mostly the banknote issue but
also deposits, and combined therefore lender-of-last-resort and deposit guarantee
functions (FDIC 1998: 312). Each fund was paid for by contributions from
banks but the state guaranteed the bond issue to set up the fund. Insurance
was the pretext for closer supervision, notably that banks had to hold specied
assets as loss-absorbing capital. The inventor of this system, Joshua Forman, got
the idea that banks should have mutual liability for each others debt from
Chinese merchants: The case of our banks is very similar; they enjoy in com-
mon the exclusive right of making a paper currency for the people of the state,
and by the same rule should in common be answerable for that paper (quoted in
FDIC 1998: 3). This insurance system worked reasonably well.
But competition from the free banking movement undermined the safety
fund system, and sovereign debt crises in the states ruined it. Shortly after the
99
charter of the Second Bank expired in 1836, a major borrowing spree started,
ironically fueled by the redistribution of a federal budget surplus (Trescott
1955: 23940; Wallis et al. 2004: 6). It ended with the sovereign default of
eight states and a territory (Florida) in the early 1840s, while twelve other
states got into serious scal difculties, out of a total of twenty-eight states.
Michigans safety fund did not survive this crisis. A common factor was that
the states continued investing heavily in transport networks and creating state
land banks but a long drawn-out recession made these investments over-
optimistic.6 There was a divide between supposedly proigate and prudent
states which made the union unwilling to bail out and assume the debt of
defaulting states, for what would have been the third time in fty years
(Wibbels 2003: 498; Henning and Kessler 2012: 11).
Economic historians have put forward a variety of reasons why those who
defaulted did so: was it corruption or cronyism between state ofcials and bank
managers, incompetence of state bureaucracies in planning large infrastructure
projects, or just the bad luck of an economic downturn beyond governments
control? In a widely cited study, Wallis et al. (2004: 1011) review these explan-
ations and nd them wanting in their generality. Each explanation assumes
that the US was one country rather than an empire of different geographic and
economic regions at different stages of economic development (Wallis et al.
2004: 26). The only similarity in all cases was that governments invested in
what they saw as their future tax base, promoting higher land prices and more
intensive land use through public investment. Wallis et al. (2004) document
that there was actually nothing corrupt or megalomaniac in these projections.
But with the benet of hindsight we can see that these policies set up a feedback
loop that made them vulnerable to the slightest shock or disappointment of
projections (English 1996: 2612; Frieden 2015b).
The default of the Southwestern states in the early 1840s was due to a
particular feedback loop that rhymes closely with the disastrous experience
of Ireland and Spain 170 years later. The Southwestern states had invested
heavily in land (or plantation) banks by issuing state bonds to them in return
for a share in their capital stock. The banks were responsible for servicing this
debt. The other investors were plantation owners who acquired capital stock
by giving the banks mortgages on their land. These private investors could
then borrow to buy more land (and slaves) to work the land. Initially, banks
nanced these mortgage loans by selling the state bonds given to them. In
case of default, the holders of these state bonds had to take recourse to the
securitized loans: the mortgages of private investors, the plantation owners.
6
The latter was in particular the case in the Southwestern states, ironically because they wanted
to make up for the closure of Second Bank branches which had nanced considerable activity in
the trans-Appalachian west (Wallis et al. 2004: 6).
100
This created the perfect conditions for a feedback mechanism between

defaulting banks and states (Wallis et al. 2004). As long as lending boomed,
land values rose, making banks even more willing to lend against this security.
But inevitably some event would eventually cast doubt on the valuation.7 As
land prices adjusted to more pessimistic expectations, mortgage credit came to
exceed the value of the underlying security. This put borrowers under water
(holding negative equity) and led them to default on their mortgages. Their
default created difculties for the banks which needed cash ow to pay
interest on their liabilities, the state-issued bonds. When the bondholders
approached the state government, they were told that the bonds were secured
by mortgages that had defaulted or seriously depreciated. Obviously, states
could have reassumed these debts or acted as lenders of last resort, which
Alabama did (Wallis et al. 2004: 16). But sovereign credit was itself dependent
on revenue from property taxes which collapsed with the fall in land prices
and defaults on mortgages (Wallis et al. 2004: table 7). Issuing new public debt
was not possible at a reasonable yield. Four out of the ve Southwestern states
chose to repudiate the state debt by letting the land banks fail.8
Another type of feedback loop could be observed in the simultaneous
experiment of free banking. A front runner was again the state of New York.
Free banking was the polar opposite of diversifying risks through central
pooling, as favored by Hamilton. The immediate political motivation of the
free banking movement and the Free Banking Act of 1838 was a conservative-
libertarian backlash against state chartering of banks: government control at
any level was resented (Moss and Brennan 2001: 151, 15560). The Act
allowed banks to enter the market and issue banknotes freely as long as they
fullled two conditions: every bank had to hold loss-absorbing capital of
$100,000 and had to cover its note issue with high-grade bonds or low-risk
mortgages to be held with the states comptroller. The high-grade bonds could
initially be federal or any state bond but the list of eligible reserve assets was
later narrowed down, disqualifying the bonds of other states. This was the
opposite of spreading risk, since note-issuing banks and their customers in the
state were susceptible to similar risks. Free banking was probably meant to be a
risk-reduction strategy imposed by regulation (Moss and Brennan 2001: 156).
Yet free banking shifted risk onto the note holders. If the bonds backing the
note issue became dubious, the banknotes lost in value and traded at a
discount: there were effectively state currenciesall called dollars, but trad-
ing at different values depending upon how much faith people had in the
7
In 1840, the shock arose from credit tightening by the Bank of England, that led to a tightening
of monetary conditions in the US (English 1996: 263).
8
Two states (Arkansas and Louisiana) later repaid most of their debt, presumably in order to
resume access to international credit markets at low cost. However, Florida and Mississippi never
repaid and got access as well (English 1996: 2635).
101
backing of the banknotes issued by the states banks (Frieden 2015b: n.p.).
Free banking dissolved the monetary union and shifted risks onto those least
able to bear them.9
The reserve requirement greatly restricted the elasticity of credit supply: a
little like trying to eliminate automobile accidents by reducing the speed limit
to zero, in the apt analogy of Moss (2002: 91). The free banks invented a new
nancial instrument to get around the credit constraint: their innovation was
checks to be drawn on deposits. Checks economized on the use of banknotes,
which allowed banks to expand their lending. Bank deposits soared relative to
the controlled stock of notes and specie.
Furthermore, the 100 percent reserve on banknotes could not prevent a
devastating feedback if notes were not accepted as a means of payment. When
a bank panic started in 1857 because a large life insurance company could not
honor its obligations towards New York banks, several of them were unable to
redeem the banknotes in specie. Their attempt to sell the high-grade bonds did
not help either. The specie price of bonds was bound to fall when everybody
rushed to liquidate bonds in order to get specie (Moss and Brennan 2001: 157).
The value of the reserve then dropped below 100 percent. The fall in bond
prices made it less likely that the states could bail out a bank without jeopard-
izing their own viability, which in turn exacerbated the run on banks.
A number of free banks and three safety funds failed, creating a nationwide
panic in the process (Moss and Brennan 2001: 160).
What the conservative backers of free banking had not appreciated was that
such a self-fullling panic through re sales can only be stopped by spread-
ing the risk over a larger pool. This requires centralization, either by backing
banknote issues with federal bonds (provided the federation can withstand
the troubles of individual states), or by creating a central bank that can act as
market maker with a non-prot motive and deep pockets, buying the bonds
(or more generally the reserve asset) and thus stabilizing their price in legal
tender. Neither happened. Instead, eleven states wrote debt restrictions into
their constitutions which became the norm of balanced budget rules for all
states (Wallis et al. 2004: 27; Kelemen and Teo 2014: fn 1). These rules amount
to a no-bailout clause for the nancial system and it is hardly surprising that
the US economy experienced many more bank panics subsequently.
4.2.3 Panicking towards the New Deal

In 1861, the US political union broke up over the political-economic question
of slavery. Seven Southern states responded to the election of the abolitionist
9
Chapter 8 can explain why: there was no payments system based on irredeemable banknotes
(at money) to assure the unity of the monetary union.
102
President Lincoln by seceding, with four more joining the Confederacy soon
afterwards. The Northern states and the President refused to acknowledge a
secession that was in contempt of a democratic election. The ensuing civil war
lasted until 1865. It was the dening conict of US history since it concerned
two existential questions, which the Princeton historian James McPherson
succinctly summarizes:
whether the United States was to be a dissolvable confederation of sovereign states

or an indivisible nation with a sovereign national government; and whether this
nation, born of a declaration that all men were created with an equal right to
liberty, would continue to exist as the largest slaveholding country in the world.
(Macpherson 2014)
The rst of these questions still resonates in Europe, given the possibility of
Greeces exit from the monetary union. The modern guise of the second
question concerns the compatibility between national democracy in member
states and membership obligations enshrined in an international treaty such
as the EUs or the federal Constitution.
It was during wartime that the core of a monetary and banking union was
re-created. The core was the National Banking Act of 1863 (Bordo and
Wheelock 2011: 5; McNamara 2003: 13), legislated by Congress without the
representatives from the secessionist states. Its main purpose was the creation
of a system of nationwide operating banks, parallel to the state banks. The Act
installed an independent treasury as the sole issuer of national banknotes. As
part of the Treasury, the Ofce of the Comptroller of the Currency was
founded, both to supervise federally chartered (national) banks and to
replace the circulation of state notes with a single national currency
(Jickling and Murphy 2010: 15). National banks could issue notes only if
these were fully backed by federal government securities; if banks were unable
to redeem their notes into legal tender, these bonds would be sold and their
proceeds used to acquire dollars. Not only did this backing create a larger
and more diversied risk pool, the Treasury also guaranteed the notes in full,
irrespective of the value of the bonds backing them. The note issues of state
banks without a national charter, by contrast, were taxed at a prohibitive rate
and fell out of use (FDIC 1998: 1012).
The US dollar area began as a Northern monetary union; the national
currency was imposed by the victors on the rest of the country when the
war was won. In 1869, this was challenged in the Supreme Court, which
initially declared the measure unconstitutional but soon reversed itself (with
the aid of the appointment of two new justices) and afrmed that the federal
government was empowered to make a paper duciary currency a legal ten-
der (Hall and Sargent 2014: 149). The divisive political symbolism of the
common currency and the underlying economic conict resurfaced when,
103
after bitter discussions, the United States rejoined the gold standard in 1879,
restoring convertibility into gold at the pre-Civil War parity (Broz 1997: 601).
The hope was that this would ensure price and exchange rate stability. Yet the
regime change gave rise to a free silver movement campaigning for a bimet-
allic standard so as to ease credit conditions and counter the deationary
tendency imposed by the gold standard (Frieden 2015a: 6877). Once again,
this pitched the mainly agrarian states in the South against the more urban-
ized and industrialized states of the Northeast. Fights over the monetary
regime were the dening feature of national politics from the 1870s to
1896 (Broz 1997: 61; Frieden 2015b: 4950). This ended in 1896 when
William Bryant, the leader of the movement supporting a bimetallic standard,
was defeated in the presidential election.
Periodic nancial havoc eventually eroded the opposition to a central
bank. Between the end of the Civil War and the beginning of the Great
Depression in 1929, the US experienced a national banking crisis in 1873,
1884, 1890, 1893, 1907, and 1914. 10 The economic damage caused by the
1893 and the 1907 panics each amounted to an estimated 10 percent of real
per capita income (Broz 1997: 166). The President and Congress remained
lukewarm regarding the proposal of a Third Bank of the US, but a group of
New York bankers set up a commission to advance the proposal, against
opposition from bankers in Chicago, and managed to get a sympathetic
hearing in relevant parliamentary committees (Bordo and Wheelock 2011:
813; Broz 1997: 14059).
The main interest of these bankers was the internationalization of the US
dollar. To compete with nancial centers in Europe, they needed a money
market with internationally acceptable instruments of trade nance, denom-
inated in dollars, but also a deeper and more liquid domestic money market.
A currency aficted by permanent domestic banking panics would not be
internationally acceptable and so a central bank was needed as market
maker. The commercial interests of banks and export sectors became the
decisive driver behind the introduction of a central bank with an effective
monetary transmission mechanism, the discount window.11 Developing a
market for discountable money market instruments made the asset side of
banks balance sheets liquid: their investments could be recycled into further
lending by using them as security for getting high-powered money from the
central bank. The discount window also gave the central bank a channel
through which it could affect domestic credit conditions and the exchange
10
I am grateful to Andrew Walter (University of Melbourne) for making his database on US
banking crises available to me. See also Chwieroth and Walter (2013).
11
Cf Broz (1997: 3643, 13752) for a superb political economy analysis of the importance of
the discount market and the role of a central bank in developing this market.
104
rate. This allowed two major sources of instability that aficted the US econ-
omy to be contained: the strong seasonal uctuations of domestic interest
rates, and the drain on national funding whenever the Bank of England raised
interest rates to prevent gold ows. The selective incentives of New York banks
had initiated the provision of a public good. The Federal Reserve Bank came
into existence in 1913, owing its name to the animosities that the term
central bank or the Third Bank of the United States would have aroused
among devolutionists.
The newly established Fed was not yet operational when the panic of 1914
started; this was quelled by the Treasury. There were no provisions for how the
Fed should respond to a banking panic and act as a lender of last resort,
apparently because legislators believed that they had created a safe banking
system (Bordo and Wheelock 2011: 15). Its resources were also enhanced:
there was nally an income tax to raise revenue, twenty years after the
legislation for it had been passed. The legislation in 1894 was a triumph for
the Progressive movement, which had lobbied the Democratic Party for a
redistributive tax to replace tariffs (Steinmo 1993: 6977). But the law was
ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court and could come into effect only
once the 16th Amendment allowed the federal government to levy direct
taxes that were not apportioned among the states (Sbragia 2008: 251). This
allowed not only redistribution from rich to poor individuals but also redis-
tribution among states. The rst income tax levied a 1 percent tax on incomes
above $3,000 and 6 percent on income over $20,000, both catching only a
small minority of rich citizens. In the First World War, the top rate rose in
quick steps to 77 percent. The war effort justied these extraordinarily progres-
sive rates (Scheve and Stasavage 2016). But overt redistribution also immedi-
ately engendered lobbying for exemptions, and the revenue from income taxes
remained low. Only towards the later stages of the Second World War did the
Roosevelt administration succeed in broadening the tax base and introducing
modern income and corporation taxes that were, again, surprisingly progres-
sive if low in volume (Steinmo 1993: 1012). This laid the foundation for scal
federalism; until then, federal funds bulked large . . . [only . . . t]o particular
states at particular times (Trescott 1955: 245).
The Fed meanwhile focused on developing the discount market. The dollar
rapidly became an internationally accepted currency, a success helped by the
First World War which stimulated export markets and increased reliance on
national banks (Broz 1998: 2546). In domestic affairs, the Fed did not com-
mend itself, but conrmed the worst expectations of the devolutionist camp.
Between 1921 and 1929, an average of 600 banks failed per year, ten times as
many as in the years before (FDIC 1998: 20). Most of them were small rural
banks that defaulted together with their clients, farmers, whose businesses
were the victims of difcult world market conditions after the war and
105
unusual droughts (E. N. White 2015: 10). The Federal Reserve Board remained
complacent, attributing the failure of these provincial banks to bad manage-
ment even as bank runs spread. When the Great Depression nally erupted in
systemic nancial collapse, it notoriously failed to provide the liquidity that
domestic banks desperately needed (Friedman and Schwartz 1963: 3579).
There were various attempts to compensate for the Federal Reserve Boards
inaction in the Depression. A textbook asymmetric output shock had hit the
Southern agrarian economy. The immediate problem was not unemployment
but farmers insolvency, which threatened the regional banking system. The
Federal Reserve Board in Washington, DC, following the policy paradigm of
the day that suited its own political agenda, wanted to inict deation on the
US economy so as to lower the price level and to demonstrate independence
from the Treasury after the First World War (E. N. White 2015: 8, 15). This
threatened the collapse of the regional economy in the South and the member
banks of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The Atlanta Fed used its limited
policymaking powers and acted as lender of last resort to regional banks.12
Faced with criticism and reluctance by other Federal Reserve Banks to lend
their excess gold reserves, the governor reminded them that the collapse of the
Atlanta District would ripple through the system and affect them all
(E. N. White 2015: 234). The Cleveland Fed came reluctantly to the rescue
after it realized that its district would lose one of its biggest markets for
manufactured farm machinery; furthermore, the claims of dealers who had
sold these products to farmers on credit would be written down (E. N. White
2015: 234).13 Pressure from Congress helped and the Atlanta Fed was later
exonerated by the Federal Reserve Board in DC.
There were other private initiatives to support the banks. The National
Credit Corporation tried to step into the breach. It failed within weeks, but
its appeal for federal assistance succeeded and a federal program, the Recon-
struction Finance Corporation (RFC), provided about $900 million in loans to
4,000 banks in the rst year of its operation (1932). But Congress forced the
RFC to publish the names of the banks beneting from its loan program at
which point no bank wanted to seek assistance any more, for fear of the stigma
of being seen in need of support (FDIC 1998: 22). Not for the last time did
legislators fear voters outrage about costly bank bailouts. They become
12
Before the New Deal reforms, the twelve district banks of the Federal Reserve System were
semi-autonomous in the conduct of monetary policy: they were responsible for holding gold
reserves and supervising their member banks. They could set discount rates, subject to the approval
of the board in Washington, DC (Bordo and Wheelock 2011; E. N. White 2015: 3, 12). Each Fed is
owned by its member banks.
13
The Sixth Federal Reserve District of Atlanta comprises Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and
portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee; the Fourth District of Cleveland serves Ohio,
western Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky.
106
conspicuously concerned about moral hazard, with the ip side that the
externality of individual bank failure could do its disastrous work.
The Fed became a policymaking authority for the domestic economy only
once the New Deal legislation created the Federal Reserve Open Market
Committee (FOMC) in 1935. This placed open-market operations, that is the
buying and selling of short-term government bonds for monetary policy
purposes, under the authority of the Federal Reserve. President Roosevelt
also recalled all gold and silver certicates, effectively abolishing the metallic
standard. This allowed the Fed to operate a much more elastic credit policy; in
fact, the Feds obligation to buy Treasury bonds at an administered low
interest rate created an inationary potential that was only removed with
the Treasury-Fed Accord in 1951, which afrmed the Feds authority to pursue
macroeconomic stability through monetary policy.14
A nal innovation of the New Deal was deposit insurance, which also gave
prudential supervision some bite. State insurance for deposits had already
been introduced in eight, mostly agrarian, states between 1908 and 1920
(FDIC 1998: 1217). But these state insurance schemes had all ceased to
exist by 1930, unable to cope with the severity of the economic downturn
in their states. As the Great Depression unfolded, more and more states
declared bank moratoria. A temporary federal deposit guarantee allowed
banks to reopen. But rumors that the newly elected Roosevelt administration
would devalue the US dollar led to capital ight into foreign currency and
gold. The conversion of dollars into gold was a particular drain on the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York. In order to protect itself from this drain, the
Reserve Bank of Chicago at one point refused to rediscount checks from
New York at par (Eichengreen et al. 2014: 1415; ch.9). A federal bank holiday
declared by President Roosevelt prevented this from happening, thus preserv-
ing the monetary union. Nonetheless, by March 1933, the banking union had
ceased to exist: Visitors arriving in Washington to attend the presidential
inauguration found notices in their hotel rooms that checks drawn on out-of-
town banks would not be honored (FDIC 1998: 23).
Congressional proposals for federal insurance, numbering about 150 since
the late 1880s, nally became acceptable. In 1935, the FDIC was founded as
part of the Glass-Steagall Act, best known for its separation of investment and
commercial deposit-taking banking. The Roosevelt administration opposed
the FDIC initially (FDIC 1998: 17, 257). Its capital was initially provided by
the Treasury and the twelve district banks of the Federal Reserve System, but
14
The precise wording, quoted in the history section of the Feds website (<http://www.
federalreservehistory.org/Events/DetailView/30>), is that the Treasury and the Fed reached full
accord with respect to debt management and monetary policies to be pursued in furthering their
common purpose and to assure the successful nancing of the governments requirements and, at
the same time, to minimize monetization of the public debt.
107
over time the banks contributions were to nance the insurance of their
deposits. Banks with more than $1 million in deposits had to join the Federal
Reserve System, a mandatory social insurance feature opposed by state-
chartered banks (FDIC 1998: 367). Full insurance was provided for deposits
of up to $2,500, paid for by a contribution charged as a at-rate fraction of
total deposits. This fee structure shifted the relative nancing burden onto
larger banks compared to earlier proposals that would have given discounts for
the self-insurance potential of large deposit banks. The provision of deposit
insurance was the pretext for doing a solvency check on each participating
bank: a good number were recapitalized through the RFC.
From then on, the FDIC had resolution authority and also exerted continu-
ous supervision. This competence was shared with state authorities and other
federal authorities (Jickling and Murphy 2010: 1518). The Ofce of the
Comptroller of the Currency was responsible for supervising national banks,
the Federal Reserve for bank-holding companies and state-chartered banks
that were members of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Savings and
Loan Insurance Corporation supervised thrifts, and the National Credit Union
Administration looked after credit unions as part of the Farm Credit Admin-
istration. The FDIC came to supervise most federally and state-chartered
banks, however, because it insured their deposits. The fragmentation of bank-
ing supervision and the overlap of jurisdictions remained permanent features.
This overlap did not create a system of double control by state and federal
authorities; instead, it allowed banks to engage in regulatory forum shopping,
with regulators competing for fee-paying regulatees (Provost 2010). This con-
tributed to the accumulation of risks leading up to the nancial crisis.
4.2.4 The Fiscal Underpinning of the Great Society

The Depression era was notable as much for the development of scal policy
as for the monetary innovations outlined above. Both scal and monetary
instruments played their part in the stability of the rst three decades of the
post-war years, when a national system of economic management became
more fully developed (Skocpol 1995: 1415; Steinmo 1993: 226). Social
security and unemployment insurance, both introduced in 1936, are systems
of insurance that contribute to security for individuals and macroeconomic
stability. The post-war years saw the addition of a number of other programs,
including the extension of social security to cover disability and the addition
of a supplementary non-contributory scheme. Food stamps, pioneered late in
the Depression, were revived and the building of the Great Society brought
means-tested health-care benets and other innovations as part of the War on
Poverty. However, it is important not to overestimate the extent of scal
union in the US. Post-war federalism thwarted efforts to develop a federal
108
welfare state that could complement monetary policies in stabilizing the

macroeconomy. Notably [u]nemployment benets and taxation became
quite uneven across the states, and it remained difcult to pool risks of
economic downturns on a national basis or to coordinate unemployment
benets with Keynesian demand management (Skocpol 1995: 13; Weir and
Skocpol 1985: 13248).
The entry point for states deconstruction of federal efforts was the nan-
cing side of the Great Society. Introducing a properly nanced social security
plan was the one big victory for the New Deal under Roosevelt. At the time,
social security was heavily criticized for being nanced by regressive contri-
butions, more precisely a proportional payroll tax on employees and employ-
ers. But Roosevelt explained to one of his critics from the left why an
insurance scheme was politically more robust: We put those payroll contri-
butions there so as to give the contributors a legal, moral, and political right to
collect their pensions . . . With those taxes in there, no damn politician can
ever scrap my social security program (quoted in Steinmo 1993: 99) A con-
tributory scheme projected the norm of insurance based on merit rather than
the norm of redistribution based on need. Insurance contributions supported
the only generous national social policy: pensions. Successive reforms made
the program quite redistributive: benets are not proportional to contribu-
tions and the supplemental scheme extends coverage to non-contributors
(Piketty and Saez 2007: 9). By contrast, redistributive income taxes led to
loophole madness (Steinmo 1993: 142, 166; Piketty and Saez 2007: 1113)
that kept the overall tax-raising capacity of the federal state at bay.15
Unemployment insurance also came to suffer from scal competition. States
wanted to retain a say in benets for able-bodied adults of working age, and
their demands were supported by reformers who wanted states to set the terms
in these programs so as to keep costs low (Skocpol 1995: 21724).
The minimalist welfare state of the US has often been explained by an anti-
state and anti-welfare ideology. But the painstaking work of Theda Skocpol
(1992) suggests that collective action problems in a federal state provide a
better explanation. By 1910, states and municipalities supported an inclusive
public education system and all three levels of governmentlocal, state, and
federalsupported generous benets to the veterans of the Unionist army as
well as their widows and children. The United States was by contemporary
international standards, a precocious social spending state! (Skocpol 1995: 12).
This revealed demand for social safety nets contradicts the ideological
15
State and local taxes are regressive or proportional, depending on whether one assumes that
the incidence of property taxes is on owners or renters. A third of all US tax revenue is raised at the
local and state level. Of these non-federal taxes, about 25 percent comes from (progressive)
individual and corporate income taxes; 30 percent from property taxes, and about 35 percent
from (regressive) sales and excise taxes (Piketty and Saez 2007: 10).
109
explanation. But when it came to nancing safety nets, democratic represen-

tation in the US electoral system was biased against risk pooling at the federal
level. The reality of American federalism is that US representatives funda-
mentally represent local constituencies, even while they are members of the
national legislature. As a result, local and state governments have a national
voice that is quite unavailable in more centralized countries like Britain and
Sweden (Steinmo 1993: 97). According to Sven Steinmo, two institutional
features restrained taxation even in emergencies. First, the electoral system
makes members of Congress more concerned about visible benets for their
local constituencies, at the cost of a consistent policy stance of the party.
Second, the sub-committee system in Congress gives the legislature dispro-
portionate power of initiative vis--vis the executive, giving every member of
Congress a platform for tinkering with the tax code. Thus, taxes were appar-
ently redistributive, supposedly paid disproportionately by a well-off minor-
ity, but this minority managed to lobby the members of sub-committees for
exemptions.
4.2.5 Deregulation and the Return of Financial Instability

The dismal scal situation was one contributing factor behind the demise of
the Golden Age of growth and welfare state expansion in the US. High
public debt and monetary accommodation were the domestic sources of the
dollars declining international status. The change in the monetary regime
after 1971 and the Feds shift to money supply control in 1979 (the Volcker
shock) led to increased exchange rate and interest rate volatility. Interest
rates on government bonds rose to double-digit levels.
This created a major problem for the savings and loan (S&L) institutions, or
thrifts. They originated in mutual saving associations for homeownership
in the early nineteenth century and were therefore politically cherished retail
banks. Their loan business was in residential mortgages, so they were locked
into long-term xed-rate assets. Because they were not allowed to pay market
interest rates on deposits, they lost more and more savers when interest rates
rose. Only low-income households with no access to other savings vehicles
stayed with the thrifts, their small savings being eroded by ination with no
interest compensation. Ironically, this regressive effect motivated the rst
legislation to liberalize nancial markets, the Depository Institutions Deregu-
lation and Monetary Control Act of 1980, passed under Democratic President
Carter. The restrictions on interest rates on household deposits were phased
out and the distinction between savings institutions removed so that they
could all enter the same markets for nancial products. To make up for the
losses they had already incurred, rendering many thrifts insolvent, capital
requirements were lowered and they were allowed to enter riskier market
110
segments with the Depository Institutions Act (Garn-St. Germain) of 1982

under the Reagan administration (Robinson 2013). Regulators and legislators
had an incentive to exercise forbearance because the federal deposit insurance
fund for S&Ls was de facto insolvent and many S&Ls had no access to the
Federal Reserve System as the lender of last resort.
Regional recessions were the straw that broke the camels back: the geo-
graphic concentration of investments and lending made the risk that hit
the S&Ls uninsurable at the state level (Todd 1994: 9; FDIC 1998: 49). Real-
estate prices, especially in Texas, fell massively and left mortgage borrowers
insolvent. Many S&Ls were wiped out because the low value of the houses
and condominiums did not even make it worthwhile to incur the transac-
tions costs of marketing them for sale in severely depressed regions. The
Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989
nally acknowledged the problem. A bad bank cum resolution fund restruc-
tured the sector, the insolvent deposit insurance fund for the sector was
closed down, and federal insurance was from then on provided by the FDIC
(FDIC 1998: 513).
Devastating as the S&L crisis was, a feedback loop from the S&L debacle
onto state budgets was prevented. Since the 1950s, many states had sponsored
the opening of private deposit insurance funds. Many failed in state-specic
crises: rst in Mississippi in 1976, then in Nebraska and California in 1983,
Ohio and Maryland in 1985, Utah and Colorado in 1987, and nally in Rhode
Island in 1991 (Todd 1994: 1).16 Three of the biggest calamities, that could
have wrecked the state easily, are compared by Todd (1994: 813). One way or
another, each state got an indirect federal bailout. Rhode Island received a
federal loan guarantee for a bond issue to restructure and recapitalize its S&L
sector. The way out for S&Ls in Ohio was short-term liquidity assistance from
the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, aided by the governors declaration of a
bank holiday that required all institutions insured by the failed private fund
to close until they were either assured of receiving federal deposit insurance or
sold or merged into a federally insured institution (Todd 1994: 10). In Mary-
land, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond had to step into the breach and
provide support to the S&Ls for more than four years. It bought time for the
state government to compensate depositors out of the revenue from state-
sponsored bond issues (Todd 1994: 12). But Ohio and Maryland relied too
openly on ofoading their problems unto the federal deposit insurance with-
out substantial injection of state funds (Todd 1994: 3), acting in bad faith
which Congress punished. Substantial amounts of state funds had to be used
to restructure the sector.
16
The sectors federal deposit insurance fund stopped accepting new claims by early 1989.
111
Other states were also affected: in Massachusetts, North Carolina, and

Pennsylvania, the state deposit insurance funds asked member banks to
apply for federal deposit insurance while they acted only as back-up insurers
for deposit amounts that did not qualify. Texas experienced the biggest crisis,
counting for more than half of all S&L losses. It was rescued in the so-called
Southwest Plan, overseen by the FDIC, which guaranteed losses of up to $50
billion (GAO 1990).
Throughout the S&L crisis, the letter of the no-bailout norm for state
budgets was honored in that the federal government did not assume state
debt directly (Henning and Kessler 2012: 12). But there was still a federal safety
net that prevented a feedback loop by assuring bond markets of a backstop
should the state default.17 A price was extracted for this support: state govern-
ments had to cut public goods provision and raise taxes.
4.3 The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity

in the US Dollar Area
Federal institution building in the US was not initiated by deliberate risk

sharing in money and nance, but banking crisis after banking crisis reminded
the authorities of the day that better risk management was needed. The
process was not driven by continuous learning but by political contestation,
discrediting of failed options and innovation under duress. There is one
exception to this description: the rst US nance minister, Alexander Hamil-
ton, could be said to have had deliberate risk sharing in mind when he
proposed his plans to create a reasonably functional monetary-scal banking
union by 1790 (Frieden 2015b, Gaspar 2015). Yet his reforms unwound in
conicts of interest between state governments, rivalries among banks, and
ideological battles over the concentration of federal power. It took more crises
and failed experiments, with rising expectations on the part of electorates
regarding the governments handling of crises (Chwieroth and Walter 2013),
before a relatively robust federal risk pool was instated.
This risk pooling did not include what Hamilton had considered to be
the strongest scal bond, namely joint liability for state debt and federal
bailing out of states. Instead, it was the FDIC that came to stabilize state-
chartered banks by providing a scal backstop independent of the budget,
thereby interrupting the negative feedback loop from failing regional banks to
17
As of 1999, the cost of the S&L crisis was estimated to amount to $153 billion, over 80 percent
of which was borne by the US taxpayer and the rest by the thrift industry. Assets of about $519
billion were restructured and the number of federally insured thrift institutions halved between
1986 and 1995 (Curry and Shibut 2000: 26, 33).
112
state budgets.18 But it took until the late 1980s before this crucial element of
risk sharing in the US monetary union came to be rmly established. Fiscal
federalism, with a devolved system of revenues and expenditures, contributed
and still contributes little to nancial stability. The federal budget is important
for compensating the pro-cyclical tendency of state scal policies, a tendency
induced by balanced budget rules, proudly enforced by state parliaments. In
every crisis since the Great Depression, US states free rode on the stabilization
efforts of Washington (Follette et al. 2008; Svec and Kondo 2012). That the
federal government plays this critical role reects the way that relations
between states have evolved; a monetary system such as the EA which does
not have robust political legitimation at the federal or supranational level
must rely on a different approach to state-level scal policy to close off pro-
cyclical tendencies.
There is more to be learned for the EA from other aspects of the political
economy of the US monetary union. The eventual creation of monetary and
scal safety nets has allowed for the creation of a regionally diversied nan-
cial system. It has proved possible to achieve monetary and nancial stability
without an unduly restrictive monetary policy, thereby reconciling the diver-
gent interests of easy credit and strong money states. The boom-and-bust
pattern of catch-up growth in regional economies that depended on commod-
ity trade had to be made compatible with the more steady growth pattern of
commerce and industry in well-off regions.
The US way to reconcile this diversity is a system of stabilization that
combines elasticity of credit creation by the banking system with control of
ination by an operationally independent central bank, along with both scal
and monetary arrangements to ensure nancial stability. The system is a
conguration of elements that depend for their effective operation on the
functionality of the others. Such a system came about with the New Deal
reforms. To see its interdependent stabilizing elements, it is helpful to go back
to the analytical distinction of three interfaces as outlined in Chapter 3. These
interfaces grasp the fact that risk-sharing channels operating autonomously
are not sufcient and can, on the contrary, concentrate and accumulate risks.
It shows how the differentiation of commercial banks, central banks, and
federal public nances contributes to a system for sharing the risks of macro-
economic and nancial instability, while highlighting the collective action
problems among the constituent states that made the US federation of risk
sharing take about 150 years to emerge.
18
The FDIC is funded out of deposit insurance fees paid by insured banks and thrifts as well as
interest earnings from its US Treasury holdings (FDIC 2014).
113
4.3.1 The Interface of Public Finances and Banking

The US started out with state-chartered banks that issued banknotes, with
each state Treasury also acting as a monetary (licensing) authority. Banknotes
soon served as the preferred means of payment since the coins issued by the
federal Treasury were inconvenient and hoarded as a store of value, so not
easy to get hold of. Note-issuing banks held specie and later state govern-
ment bonds as reserves into which their banknotes had to be converted on
demand of any banknote holder. While state sponsorship of banking
enlarged states scal capacity enormously and allowed them to play an
important developmental role (McNamara 2003: 10), this overlap created a
recurrent problem of what we now know as negative feedback (doom or
diabolic) loops.
Phasing out the issue of state banknotes after 1863 reduced the risk of credit-
fueled bubbles which could ruin public nances and interrupt the payments
system, with the negative spillovers onto other states that entailed. The
creation of a national banking system (entry 6 in Table 4.1) was instrumental
in this respect as it created competition to state banks and, with the heavy-
handed help of the Ofce of the Comptroller of the Currency, crowded out the
note issue of state banks. This was a victory of the monetary conservative
states of the North and East over credit expansionists in the South and West,
and was therefore not a political-institutional equilibrium. Nonetheless, it set
in motion the regional diversication of the nancial system that made the
fate of banks less dependent on economic conditions, including public
nances, in any one state.
Another link between public and private nances was state governments
sponsorship of development banks, providing them with start-up capital in
the form of state bonds. Real-estate lending backed by bank capital consisting
mainly of state bonds was a business model that made for devastating feed-
back loops. Public investment promoted borrowing on the basis of a security
(land) the price of which responded positively to more borrowing. If the price
of the security fell for some reason, the process went in reverse and bank-
rupted the borrower as well as the public purse.
This risk is present whenever banks are heavily invested in the bonds of a
(state) government expected to help them in a crisis and are relatively large
relative to a governments scal capacity, while diversication of the assets
that banks hold as capital diminishes the risk. Diversication was an outcome
of building a national banking system, including the creation of private
insurance arrangements among banks. But the systemic crisis of the New
Deal found the private solution wanting. The FDIC, acting both as a guarantor
of deposits and as a resolution authority (entry 2 in Table 4.1) provided the
answer. Its sustainability requires a federal government bond traded in a
114
Table 4.1. Evolving channels and interfaces of federal risk sharing in the US
Fiat money 1 Price stability: 2 Demand stabilization 3 Transmission of monetary

and scal backstops: policy signals:
1935 Federal Reserve 1914 rst national income 1929 end of commodity
Open Market tax standard
Committee
1951 Accord 1935 Social Security Act Creation of discount market,
1935 FDIC treasuries-focused monetary
policy
Public nance 4 Monetary back-up to 5 Debt sustainability/ 6 Government debt nance:
sovereign employment
stabilization:
1933/1935 Federal 1863 National Banking System
Reserve as lender of with federal government
last resort bonds as reserve
No prohibition of 1840s Balanced budget
monetary nancing rules at state level
1914 National income tax
(automatic stabilizer) at
the federal level
Private nance 7 Liquidity risk 8 Solvency risk 9 Financial stability:
management: management:
1913 Federal Reserve 198491 FDIC in S&L 1935/1989 FDIC and prudential
System with crisis, acting as deposit supervision of state-chartered
predecessors in 1791 insurance and resolution banks, back-up for national
and 1816 authority bank supervision
Unied payments
system (ISA)
1863 National Banking
Act creates national
government bond
market
national sovereign bond market that pools scal risks of states. The FDIC holds
these Treasury bonds as safe interest-earning assets.
In the S&L crisis of the 1980s to mid-1990s, one could see that federal
insurance has a ip side (entry 8 in Table 4.1). It can be exploited by state
administrations, to the extent that they can shift risk onto the FDIC. This
presents the federal government with a dilemma of government responsive-
ness (Rodrik and Zeckhauser 1988): accepting the shifting of risks would set a
bad example, on the one hand, but the externality causing further bank and
state defaults could cripple the entire national economy, on the other. One
way out of the dilemma is to give priority to stopping the externality of a
feedback loop through lending of last resort to banks and/or the sovereign
of the jurisdiction responsible for these banks (entry 4 in Table 4.1), rst.
Punishing the free riders by making the banks and state governments pay
for the risks they took has to wait at this point. But political decision making
115
does not necessarily facilitate this: the response to public outrage can be too
tough in the sense of prioritizing costly punishment, or it can be too forgiving
once the worst is over. The Fed became a lender of last resort only after it had
failed miserably in the early 1930s; Bordo and Wheelock (2011: 2733) discuss
the complex reasons why this may have been the case, among them collective
action failure of the various district banks of the Federal Reserve System. The
Banking Acts of 1933 and 1935 marked the change, above all centralization of
the Federal Reserve System and various extensions of the Feds ability to lend
in a situation of crisis (Bordo and Wheelock 2011: 334).
The EA has no counterpart to the FDIC. Its solution, when banks come
under pressure, is rst and foremost monetary: all banks have access to ECB
liquidity. In the US, many state-chartered banksmore than half of all US
banks and thriftsare not members of the Federal Reserve System (FDIC 2014)
and thus cannot borrow from the central bank. Lending of last resort by the
central bank deals with the immediate problem, but leaves the resolution of
failing banks to be funded by scally constrained member states.
4.3.2 The Interface of Banking and Money

In the early days of the US federation, money was indistinguishable from bank
credit. Any liquidity crisis therefore also affected the payments system (entry 7
in Table 4.1). Asymmetric information and the absence of a lender of last
resort easily triggered runs on banks when there were rumors about their
viability. State authorities were prone to exacerbate each others nancial
problems by declining to accept out-of-state banknotes. Under the gold stand-
ard, banknotes were supposedly backed by specie, but in a crisis they traded at
a discount, further exacerbating the loss of condence. Unchartered banks
were therefore required to back their note issue 100 percent with reserve
assets. But this eliminated credit creation by the banking system, and did
not even ensure convertibility when reserves consisted mainly of domestic
state bonds.
The solution pursued by the monetary authorities was to maintain strict
quantitative control of money and credit supply, but restraint of credit height-
ened the tension between the North and East of the country, typically well
represented by federal powers, against the poorer and socio-economically more
backward Southern and Western states. In any case, ways were found to create
credit despite apparently strict rules on money and banking. The adoption of
fractional reserve banking allowed the movement from a commodity standard,
based on gold, silver, or copper, to a duciary standard, based on paper
promises to pay . . . This allowed for a far more exible money supply, since
the volume of banknotes could now expand and contract with demand, even
when the supply of precious metals remained xed (Moss 2002: 889).
116
For economies growing fast but also unevenly and in ups and downs, such
elasticity was of the essence. The funds that the note issue generated could be
lent out as credit, as long as the banknotes circulated. Banks were able to
provide liquidity with which people could pay at the same time as they created
credit with which the economy could generate more income. In fact, the
banknote issue became backed by the credit business it generated: should it
happen that more clients wanted to redeem notes into specie than the bank
held in its vaults, the bank could recall loans and buy specie from other banks
with excess reserves. Moss (2002: 89) calls it a neat trick.
However, given asymmetric information, interbank transactions could eas-
ily fail before a national currency and a centralized Federal Reserve System
ensured that a dollar issued in New York exchanged 1:1 for a dollar issued in
Chicago. In a multi-currency system, state banks holding excess reserves of
specie hesitated to sell specie against banknotes from banks that were experi-
encing high demand for specie from their clients. So banknotes were accepted
only at a more or less steep discount. This inicted a loss of purchasing power
on all holders of the banks note issue. This banknote-specic depreciation fed
an entire detector business and generated signicant transaction costs for
the economy: Discount rates were recorded on a regular basis in newspapers
and specialized bank note reporters (Moss 2002: 90). If the discount was steep
enough, note holders were inclined to ask their banks for specie instead. The
ensuing run on the bank could amount to the self-fullling prophecy that the
bank was in trouble. Apart from this nancial stability problem, there was also
a macroeconomic issue: each bank issued notes with a view to its own demand
and reserves but there was little control whether, collectively, banks had issued
too many or too few banknotes for price stability, which ultimately depended
on the (variable) collective willingness to hold the circulating stock of notes.
The crisis-prone microeconomics of markets was compounded by collective
action problems inherent in devolved policymaking. State authorities often
panicked as much as market actors. The problems of commitment and infor-
mation asymmetry of single banks within a state are, if anything, worse
between states. If the notes circulating in a state were in difculty, they were
easily declared unacceptable as a means of payment for cross-border trans-
actions. This of course worsened the nancial situation of banks and businesses
from that state and became self-fullling. It was the equivalent of liquidity
ring fencing by national nancial supervisors in the EA (Section 6.2.3).
What the introduction of the Federal Reserve System did rst was to differ-
entiate money supply, and thus the payments system, from credit creation
(entry 3 in Table 4.1). Central bank money, consisting of cash in circulation
and bank reserves held with the monetary authority, was legal tender: nobody
could refuse to be paid in the nal means of payment. With the creation of a
central bank, money still came largely into circulation through member banks
117
drawing down their reserves or borrowing from the central bank against
collateral in the discount market that the Fed developed. The discount market
established the transmission mechanism by which the central bank could
smooth seasonal interest rate uctuations as well as cyclical pressures.
With a central bank, increased demand for liquidity, equivalent to demand
for specie previously, did not force individual banks to recall loans. The rela-
tionship between cash that banks provided to their clients and the reserves
they held, now with the central bank, could therefore be much more exible.19
The Fed thus assumed some of the liquidity risk that banks still carried, which
arose when savers wanted to withdraw unexpectedly high amounts of cash
from their deposit accounts.
How serious this remaining liquidity risk was for banks then depended on
how ready the Fed was to give credit in situations where a member bank had
run out of its reserves. From the late 1900s, central bankers adopted the so-
called Bagehot rule, according to which central banks should lend freely at a
penalty rate against good collateral (Bagehot 1882). The problem with this
rule was that a severe downturn in a regional economy may quickly deplete
the stock of good collateral as assets deteriorate. Furthermore, a penalty inter-
est rate could accelerate the downturn (Grossman and Rockoff 2015). This
problem was heightened in the US as there was a federal system for supplying
money to the regional banking systems, so whether banks with liquidity
problems should get credit at the discount window and on what terms
required a collective decision. Eugene Whites discussion of the depression
of 19201 in agrarian states covered by the Federal Reserve District of Atlanta
is a case in point: The Atlanta minutes reveal that cooperation between
Reserve banks was often grudging and hesitant (E. N. White 2015: 21).
Regional uctuations are a source of conict for the central bank in a
monetary union, as the single interest rate it establishes can be too high for
some regions, too low for others. Alan Walters (1988) saw this as the fatal aw
of European monetary integration but the US example is equally pertinent. It
took more than the setting up of a central bank in 1913 to overcome the
collective action problem between the monetary authorities of states. Part of
the problem was the gold standard: backing by specie reserves created inelas-
ticity of money and credit supply because neither the private sector nor public
authorities could generate specie on demand. Roosevelts introduction of pure
19
Readers familiar with the textbook concept of the credit multiplier will recognize that this
implies rejecting its claim that credit creation of banks is a mechanical response to the injection or
withdrawal of money (cash reserves) that makes them expand or contract credit (their earning
assets) accordingly. In response to changes in the money supply, banks can vary the rates at which
they attract more or less liquidity (Goodhart 1989: 137). It is exactly this elasticity that is the
insurance benet in normal times from the differentiation between money supply and credit
production.
118
at money removed one potential source of virulent panic. New Deal reforms
also removed the semi-autonomy of district banks and centralized monetary
policymaking powers, with the Banking Acts in 1933 and 1935. In other
words, the collective action problem was replaced by hierarchy.
The context of these reforms was of course the Great Depression. It revealed
how interdependent the US regions had become. State and federal authorities
were confronted with the existential question of whether to choose disinte-
gration or centralization (McNamara 2003: 13). While the US under the New
Deal was not a nation united to face adversity, there were no strong forces that
would have beneted from a dissolution of the federation either. The result
was a reasonably functional division of responsibilities: the money supply
expanding and contracting with a view to the national business cycle and
providing the reference for the elastic generation of credit by banks. This
system nanced high post-war growth with no major panic until the early
1980s when the end of nancial repression unsettled the institutional
equilibrium.
4.3.3 The Interface of Money and Public Finances

In the rudimentary states of the US, the printing of money was a way to raise
public revenue, especially in wartime. This was a time-honored practice in pre-
modern states but it also marked a limit of state power. Soldiers had to be
forced to join armies if they knew they were paid in debased coins or worthless
paper money, which did not exactly boost their morale and loyalty to the cause
(Ferguson 1962: 454). Merchants and farmers who had to sell to the ruling class
against such debased money were ruined over time, and with them the econ-
omy. Where means of force could not be used, as in international trade, the
rulers had to pay in specie or foreign exchange they could not tinker with. The
Continental dollar was a manifestation of the instrumental use of state money
in wartime. But it remained an exception. States in the US federation were
barred from the most egregious abuse of monetary power that authoritarian
rulers in Old Europe had practiced over centuries.
The chartering of private note-issuing banks was favored as it prevented
political opportunism in monetary affairs. But the absence of state money was
one reason why the emerging US federation experienced in its short history
more nancial instability than any comparable economy at the time. Finan-
cial instability eased only once the US federation recognized that at money
issued by a national central bank can enable a growing and heterogeneous
economy to diversify its stability risks. If the collective interest in the paper
promise to pay (Moss 2002: 88) can be institutionalized, it can bind the scal
authorities to support the monetary system. The art of monetary institution
building is to gain scal support while constraining governments opportunities
119
to instrumentalize the power to issue legal tender to solve their own nancial
problems.
In the US, this institutionalization took the form of a central bank that is
independent within government (Board 2005: 3). It took some time before
this institutionalized division of labor settled in. The process began with the
establishment of the FOMC. Over time, the FOMC became the operationally
independent policymaking authority in Washington, DC, ensuring that the
Fed was no longer merely a clearing house for banks or the discount market
maker for internationally active banks (Broz 1998). This implied a change in
its policy orientation, away from preventing panics and speculative bubbles
towards stabilizing the macroeconomy. The visible outcome of this was that
the New York Fed was put into a subsidiary role over time (Hetzel 2013).
Macroeconomic stabilization did not preclude monetary nancing of the
government. The early decades after the Second World War were characterized
by what Sargent and Wallace (1981) called scal dominance. Until the
Accord of 1951, the Fed had to buy both short- and long-term government
bonds in open-market operations at low interest rates set by the Treasury.20
This did not allow the FOMC to conduct an anti-inationary monetary policy.
The Accord determined that the Fed would buy only short-term government
bonds (so-called Treasury bills) and leave the determination of interest rates
for longer bond maturities to bond markets; the yield curve was supposed to
act as market discipline on the federal budget policy (Hetzel 2013).21 But
market discipline did not work and the inationary potential of scal domin-
ance materialized; it even unsettled the dollars international role.
A more assertive Fed policy awaited the political and economic develop-
ments of the 1980s. The monetarist policy introduced by Volcker led to much
higher and more volatile interest rates. The Fed prioritized macroeconomic
stability over nancial stability with a policy that led directly to the S&L crisis.
Now scal resources backed up monetary policy: the Fed did not have to bail
out the S&Ls, but could leave the clearing up to state authorities and the FDIC.
Another interface of monetary and scal policy remained somewhat dys-
functional. Ideally, scal policy should contribute to stabilization, particularly
in responding to region-specic shocks. But the minimal welfare state in the
US contributed little to stabilization. Social security stabilized pensioner
incomes but unemployment insurance was so tightly administered by states
20
The interest rates set were 0.375 percent for short-term bonds and 2.5 percent for long-term
bonds while ination rates were 17.6 percent in 19467 and 21 percent by early 1951 (Romero
2013).
21
This discipline was undermined by the US dollars hegemonic position as European central
banks shadowed the US ination rate, with the notable exception of Germany. The ensuing
current-account imbalances became a source of instability that unsettled the Bretton Woods
regime (James 2012: 343).
120
that it was of limited value in this regard, while welfare (means-tested

provision) can do very little for macroeconomic stabilization due to its low
level and tight targeting.
4.3.4 Comparative Political Economy

The US federation of risk sharing emerged largely as a by-product of ghting
nancial instability, in a long drawn-out process of institutional experimen-
tation. In contrast to the EA, a complete centralized solution was put forward
at the beginning, which the scally starved states accepted to get rid of their
war debt. But the Hamilton Plan unraveled in less than three decades due to
strong ideological reservations against centralized power. Every subsequent
attempt at restoring centralized monetary control was thwarted by the deep
cleavage between Northeast and Southwest.
In the second half of the nineteenth century, risk pooling and diversica-
tion through a national currency and a national banking system addressed
some sources of instability but created others by increasing economic inter-
dependence. A case in point was the shock to the agrarian states covered by
Federal Reserve District of Atlanta in the recession of 19201. It threatened to
spill over into the District of Cleveland, with its manufacturing industries
exporting to the agrarian economy. The problem became big enough that
other Federal Reserve districts could eventually see the case for the Atlanta
Feds actions. The interdependence of creditor and debtor states made them
aware of their common interest in stabilization. In the language of collective
action theory: selective incentives on both sides made them cooperate and
deliver lender-of-last-resort services to the Southern agrarian economy.
This historical example illustrates how such asymmetric shocks were
accommodated within a heterogeneous currency union. The case can also be
used to illustrate why exible exchange rates between heterogeneous but
interdependent states do not provide an easier solution. Had the badly hit
Southern states in the District of Atlanta borrowed from the District of
Cleveland in another currency, it is almost certain that currency markets
would have forced a depreciation of the Atlanta dollar. This would have increased
the Cleveland dollar debt of farmers in Atlanta who were already overstretched by
the fall in price for their produce. The choice before the Cleveland Fed would
have been the same: assist their colleagues from Atlanta or let the Cleveland
Districts claims be written off. Both Fed districts actually beneted from
being members of a bigger currency area. They could draw on these bigger gold
reserves and dollar liquidity should lenders and investors abandon them.
The Great Depression nally softened political resistance against nancial
and macroeconomic stabilization by the center. The outcome was monetary
solidarity in the sense that the system of macrostabilization pooled more and
121
more risk at the federal level after 150 years of experimentation and failure of
devolved solutions. But risk sharing was and remains far from complete.
The most notable exception to federal risk pooling is the no-bailout norm
for state debt, established in the early 1840s. The federal government refused
to assume failing state bonds, after it had done so twice with no lasting signs of
gratitude from the states. This norm has proved to be sustainable because the
scal capacity of the states has been radically curtailed rather than maintained
and pooled. Hamilton saw the assumption of state debt by the federal gov-
ernment as the cement of political union, but it was not used on the
construction site of the US federation.
For decades the exercise of the no-bailout norm came at the price of nan-
cial panic, with feedback between bank default and a collapse of state nances.
This is the clearest rhyme of history between the currency unions of the US
and the EA. But, in the absence of an FDIC-like insurance mechanism for state
banks, the EA states could not uphold their no-bailout rule. Default on sover-
eign bonds could have created havoc, given that nobody knew how many
other toxic assets and non-performing loans were on banks balance sheets.
The US administration was on the phone when European heads of states
negotiated, urging them to bail out Greece for the sake of international
nancial stability (Barber 2010). And just like their counterparts in the US
before them, policymakers in the EA now seek to build a banking union that
will maintain nancial stability in the absence of a federal government. One
of the foremost experts on European nancial integration, Nicolas Vron
(2015), calls this a radical experiment. It certainly is, but so was the creation
of the US monetary union.
US monetary and nancial history is as much under the spell of Monnets
cursethat union will be forged in crisisas is the history of European
monetary integration. It is arguably counter-evidence, not supporting evi-
dence, for the idea that state building will eventually lay to rest fragmentation
and factionalism, and lead to political identity and convergence on central-
ized standards (McNamara 2003: 68). Underlying conicts remain intense.
For Alberta Sbragia, an eminent scholar of American federalism and European
integration, a conict between territorial and functional politics lies at the
heart of the politics of federalism in the United States (Sbragia 2008: 241).
She argues that functional politics at the national level now tends to dominate
territorial politics only because states and localities have become politically
less well represented and neutralize each other through competition. Cooper-
ation on macroeconomic stabilization seems to depend, above all, on the
same party being in power at the national and the sub-national level
(Rodden and Wibbels 2002: 523), but the political logic of checks and balances
often leads voters to prefer different majorities at the two government levels.
During the nancial crisis of 20079, the national government, including the
122
Fed, was attacked for its overbearing tendencies even though it rescued the
economy from its biggest crisis since the Great Depression (Schelkle 2012b;
Mabbett and Schelkle 2016b).
The sequencing of nancial-scal and monetary integration in the US
differs from that of the EA. The US system evolved for a long time without a
central bank issuing the ultimate means of payment (Helleiner 2003: 1368).
The federal budget came to pool risks of monetary and nancial instability in
states before the central bank did (Giannini 2011: 138; Moss 2002: 87). But
this was not a viable assignment of responsibilities, since scal mechanisms
work more slowly and are politically more contentious than monetary ones.
Federal taxpayers liability for the mishaps of some member states is immedi-
ate and transparent. Once modern central banking and the FDIC were in
place, the federal budget could focus on income stabilization.
We should note, however, that scal policy in the US is still far from a
complete and effective insurance mechanism. The negative effect of states on
stabilization is well documented for the US, most recently by Follette et al.
(2008) and Svec and Kondo (2012). They nd that state and local budgets are
modestly procyclical. Balanced budget rules play a role in forcing state
authorities to reduce expenditure in a recession, and they do not resist the
temptation to expand in a boom. But since these rules have to be obeyed in
most states with respect to budget forecasts, not actual data, sub-national
governments have some leeway and can engage in limited counter-cyclical
measures without projecting imbalances. Many state governments also have
rainy day funds they can run down in bad times and ll up in good times. But
neither scal technique seems to be used sufciently to prevent the pro-
cyclicality of sub-national budgets.
The widespread adoption of pro-cyclical discretionary measures to balance
state budgets can be inferred from the study of Dolls et al. (2010: 312). Their
estimates for the contribution of states to automatic stabilization in the US
suggest that state income taxes could compensate about 5 percent of the 32
percent of an income shock and contribute 4 percent to the 34 percent
compensation of an unemployment shock, but these in-built contributions
do not materialize because states neutralize them under the pretext of bal-
anced budget rules. The comparable gures for the EA are 38.5 percent of an
income shock absorbed on average and 48.5 percent of an unemployment
shock. Automatic stabilizing capacities vary enormously between member
states, however. Even among Northern and Western European members,
unemployment schemes absorb between 25 percent and 60 percent of a
shock to employment; this absorption rate goes down to under 10 percent
for Estonia, Greece, Italy, and Slovenia (Dolls et al. 2010: 13).
The European system started with much more developed state-level insti-
tutions, notably a clear differentiation between money and credit, developed
123
nancial regulation and supervision of national banks, and, above all, sub-
stantial tax-transfer systems with strong automatic stabilizers (Dolls et al.
2010). With more justication than US states in the nineteenth century,
European governments could claim that the maintenance of monetary and
nancial stability did not require delegation of scal authority to the supra-
national/federal level in a union of diverse member states. This has proved
illusory, however.
124
5
The System of Limited Risk Sharing

in the Euro Area
The European monetary union has been portrayed, by one of the leading US
scholars, as the less successful part of an unprecedented attempt at policy
coordination: Whatever the outcome of the crisis, the EU will remain with-
out rival the most ambitious and successful example of voluntary inter-
national cooperation in world history (Moravcsik 2012: 64). Another
leading French scholar characterized the monetary union as the last utopia
of the 20th century (Pisani-Ferry 2013: 19) Whether one loathes or admires
the EA for this, these statements remind us of the enormity of the euro
experiment. But governments of mature democracies, including their central
bankers, are not usually guided by utopian visions, suggesting that we need a
more prosaic account of why they signed up to monetary union and why they
gave the union a particular institutional form.
The rst section of this chapter offers an answer in two parts. First, I review
the lessons drawn from the crisis of the ERM in 19923. Many observers saw
this as the end of the monetary integration project, yet it proved to be a
forceful driver for further integration. Second, the economic gains from mon-
etary union are discussed. A diverse set of politically sovereign countries
wanted to join the currency union for different but compatible reasons: to
secure low ination and low real interest rates. This section argues that the
policy architecture of the EA institutionalized monetary solidarity as a
by-product of the attempt to achieve these two goals. The nal section summar-
izes why the European monetary union has such an ambiguous relationship
to solidarity among its members, and how the creation of a nonstate money
(Harold James 2012: 390) can be related to political integration.
5.1 Currency Unication against the Odds
Why did a diverse set of EU member states go from a managed exchange rate
system to a common currency? The ERM, often referred to more generally as
the European Monetary System, allowed countries with their own currencies
to go in and out of a target zone of cross-exchange rate stability, as called for by
national economic circumstances. But in 19923 some countries were forced
out of the ERM, while others had to realign, and the boundaries of the target
zone were temporarily widened. This was taken by contemporary observers to
mean that opportunities for realignment could not be closed off permanently
by adopting a single currency, but, reviewing the crisis with the benet of
hindsight, it provides a lens through which one can see the motives for
monetary union.1
5.1.1 The Trauma of the 19923 Crisis

The trigger for turbulence in nancial markets between September 1992 and
August 1993 was the rejection of the Maastricht Treaty in a Danish referen-
dum in June 1992 (Hobolt 2009: 16276) and a near rejection by French voters
soon afterwards, in September. This was taken as a sign of political resistance
to restrictions on domestic policy discretion, including the constraint of
maintaining a xed exchange rate. The view of many economists at the time
was that, if domestic wage-xing institutions could not maintain competi-
tiveness, countries should not give up the instrument of exchange rate adjust-
ment.2 Eichengreen and Wyplosz (1993: 60) summarize this view succinctly:
Exchange rate changes can avert these losses [in competitiveness] by altering
many prices at once. This is the daylight savings time argument for exchange
rate adjustments.
The break-up of the ERM in 1992 was preceded by ve years of complete
exchange rate stability. A textbook asymmetric shock hit the system in 1990
with German unication. At rst, this provided a welcome demand stimulus for
member states that were at the time largely in a recession. But the Bundesbank
tried to nip in the bud the inationary tendencies arising from monetary union
with East Germany. The source of inationary pressure was that the money
supply was expanded by the political decision to transfer East German citizens
savings into deutschmarks at a favorable rate that gave these savings high
purchasing power (Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1993: 759). By 1991, Germany
had an investment boom while the rest of the ERM slipped back into recession
(Branson 1993: 129). The German central bank called for parity realignment in
the ERM that would have allowed it to ease interest rates, while others would
have had to raise their interest rates (Deutsche Bundesbank 1991: 66;
Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1993: 779, 11013). Open disagreements on who
1
See Sadeh and Verdun (2009) for a more general overview in light of integration theories.
2
This view is also the basis of explanations of the euro area crisis by comparative political
economists (Hall 2012; Hanck 2013: ch.4; Johnston 2016).
126
The System of Limited Risk Sharing in the Euro Area
should adjust, Germany with ination or other member states with devalu-
ation, unsettled market observers further. The other member states might have
hoped they could force the Bundesbank into a more expansionary policy, given
that under a new ERM accord the central bank of a currency that appreciated
was required to intervene in favor of members under depreciation pressures and
extend credit to them automatically. The Banque de France actually lowered its
short-term interest rate below the German rate in October 1991, hoping the
Bundesbank would have to follow; when this did not occur and capital outows
increased, the French central bank had to raise interest rates abruptly
(Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1993: 79n). On Black Wednesday, September, 15,
1992, the British pound and the Italian lira were forced out of the ERM. In
August 1993, the band of 2.25 percent around a central rate had to be widened
to 15 percent because the French franc came again under severe pressure.
Economists at the time vehemently debated what caused the crisis. The
diagnosis mattered enormously for the envisaged currency union, which
had entered its rst stage with the abolition of capital controls in 1990.
Eichengreen and Wyplosz (1993) argued that the crisis was caused by a self-
fullling speculative attack, Branson (1993) that ERM members refusal to
adjust to the scal shock of Germanys unication was to blame, while
Dornbusch (1993) thought that accumulated losses of competitiveness vis--vis
Germany had built up the pressure that then suddenly erupted. The short
summary seems to be that different countries had different problems. Italy
and to a lesser extent the UK and Spain had experienced real appreciation that
made exports too expensive and imports too cheap for current-account balance;
but the case was less clear for the others. Moreover, countries outside the ERM,
Sweden and Finland in particular, experienced even worse currency, scal, and
banking crises (Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1993: 645, 1056).
Those who accepted the daylight saving argument for exchange rate
adjustment had great difculty understanding why governments would
want to give up this instrument. Yet xed exchange rate policies were widely
pursued, even by countries that did not eventually join the EA. The Swedish
government wanted to join but dropped the plan for lack of popular support
in the late 1980s; it later endorsed a new plan to join the EA by 2006 with the
full support of the central bank (Heikensten 2003), but could not carry the
public with it in a referendum in 2003. Denmark was also excluded from EA
membership as the result of its Maastricht referendum, but it subsequently
maintained a rm peg to the central rate and later the euro. The UK was the
exception to pegging, but there is little evidence that the oating exchange
rate was seen by UK policymakers as benecial to the real economy. It was far
too volatile for this purpose.
One lesson that many European policymakers drew from the ERM crisis was
that nancial markets were unreliable and unfair judges of economic policies.
127
Governments had taken resolute steps towards adjustment, which was well
under way by the time the attack hit them (Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1993:
69, 81). Italy retained an extremely high interest rate even after it was forced
out of the ERM, contradicting speculation that there would be a policy change
that would justify the attack ex post (Dornbusch 1993: 133). France had for
quite some time better macroeconomic performance indicatorsin terms of
ination and budget and current-account balancesthan Germany in its post-
unication upheaval. Only days before being attacked, the Spanish peseta was
at the upper band of the exchange rate target, indicating appreciation pres-
sures (Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1993: 80). But polls about the tight outcome
of the French referendum dominated the news, leading exchange rate dealers
to anticipate that member states would not be able to sustain policies that
maintained the currency grid amidst high and rising unemployment
(Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1993: 858). Hence the currencies of these mem-
ber states suspected of incipient policy change were sold in order to realize
capital gains when assets denominated in D-Mark or non-ERM currencies
appreciated. By doing so, investors inadvertently strengthened the Bundes-
banks hand.
To add insult to injury, the origin of the disturbance had been German
unication. Germany had just been granted a swift and seamless EU enlarge-
ment, increasing its population size by a quarter, only to see the Bundesbank
put massive adjustment pressure on cooperative neighbors. Currency markets
in conjunction with a relentless central bank made politicians look hopeless
and hapless. Even inside Germany, this was a political lose-lose situation: not
for the rst time, the nance minister seemed to be at the mercy of Bundes-
bank decisions.3 The political fall-out was that resentment against Germanys
dominance in the EU was openly expressed (Spiegel 1992).
Thus, far from putting governments off the single currency, the ERM crisis
of 19923 built further political constituencies for it. For French elites in
particular, the lesson was not missed: The central fact of the [ERM] has
been this: no single currency had an equal chance of appreciating and depre-
ciating against the DM. Each was soft relative to the DM. That implied a
signicant bias in the foreign exchange market (Dornbusch 1993: 132).
However hard their policies tried to emulate and even surpass the German
stance, foreign exchange markets had taken against the French franc.
The problem arguably ran deeper than the conservatism of German central
bankers. The ERM crisis had driven home the point that exchange rate
3
Moravcsik (1998: 394, 4034) rightly notes that German chancellors of different ideological
leanings had their problems with the Bundesbanks single-minded pursuit of low ination,
especially when this had apparently more costs in terms of sluggish domestic growth than
benets in terms of demand stimulus from buoyant exports ever since the 1980s.
128
cooperation suffered from a commitment problem that no obligation of

symmetric intervention could solve (Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1993: 63,
111). It was simply not credible that the central bank of a strong currency
area would support weak currency areas when intervention had to be unlim-
ited in the absence of exchange rate adjustments and without capital controls.
If a central bank gave up the right to choose whom to support, it would cease
to be the issuer of a strong currency. This did not mean that the Bundesbank
had no grasp of the political sensitivities. Throughout, the Bundesbank sup-
ported the Danish krona and the French franc, presumably because the
upcoming referenda on the Maastricht Treaty showed fragile public support
and the Bundesbank did not want to be accused of sabotage (Eichengreen and
Wyplosz 1993: 11213). Neither currency was devalued despite speculation
against both. But it must still have been a humiliating experience to depend
on the goodwill of a partner institution whose intransigence had made such
goodwill necessary in the rst place.
The ERM crisis had shown most governments how little monetary sover-
eignty they had. The alternative was not an effective exchange rate policy but
exposure to unpredictable nancial shocks and costly adjustment to the
German lead. It was hoped that currency unication would solve the collect-
ive action problem of commitment to exchange rate cooperation when policy
preferences and capacities are diverse. Governments were aware of this diver-
sity. In fact, it motivated them to pursue currency unication against the odds
that they would be punished at the ballot box. Germany and the Netherlands
had little reason to unify their currencies, as there was little difference in
outlook, neither had ever devalued in the ERM and the asymmetry of German
leadership was not considered a problem. But even the Netherlands could see
economic advantage in generalized monetary stability in Europe compared to
the instability of an anchor currency (Maes and Verdun 2005: 339).
5.1.2 Joining the Risk Pool of a Hard-Currency Area

The ERM crisis not only demonstrated the political salience of exchange rate
changes, but also the political and economic importance of interest rates. In a
survey conducted by Eichengreen and Wyplosz (1993: tables 3 and 4), two
thirds of exchange rate dealers mentioned high Bundesbank interest rates as
the primary reason why they thought there would be a crisis. Furthermore,
they recognized that central banks would not support a currency to the hilt if
this meant maintaining high interest rates with a detrimental effect on the
economy. Not just the level of interest rates but also their volatility presented
problems. Both a high level and high volatility of the cost of debt make for
shorter maturities which forces economic actors to be more short-termist.
129
High and volatile interest rates affect the economy through at least four
channels that correspond to the sectorsrms, governments, households,
nancial sectorof an economy (Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1993: 1017).
The importance of these channels differs by country.
There is rst the effect on economic activity: interest rates act like a tax on
debt-nanced investment projects. Even if nanced out of retained prots,
higher interest rates reduce the number of investment projects that appear
protable. The interest tax leaves less to equity investors, which may make
them less inclined to innovate. A high interest rate also means that projects
must pay off more quickly, so both the quantity and the quality of investment
suffers and with it the employment that would be created. The corporate
sector in some countries is more interest-sensitive than in others, because of
higher debt levels and shorter maturities. Last but not least, higher interest
rates leave less income to wage earners out of value added and this has a
depressing effect on aggregate demand because wage earners tend to have a
higher propensity to spend.
Second, interest rate payments on the outstanding stock of debt are also a
major component in public expenditure. For example, Italy had a debt stock
of around 100 percent of GDP, so a 1 percent rise in the average nominal yield
of government bonds would raise government expenditure by more than
2 percent if the ratio of public expenditure to GDP is below 50 percent. Rising
interest payments can push a sovereign into a debt trap where it has to raise
debt in order to service the existing stock. This is all the more a risk given the
depressing effect of high interest rates on economic activity which makes tax
revenue decline. For high-debt countries like Italy and Belgium, this was an
imminent threat.
Third, the biggest investment a household typically makes is the acquisi-
tion of a home and it is typically nanced by a good share of debt. For
countries with high rates of home ownership nanced by exible interest
debt, a sharp rise in interest rates is a threat to households well-being. Higher
nancing costs are a direct call on household income, and can also depress the
property market and lead to a fall in house prices. If the loan to value ratio has
been high, households may end up with negative equity when interest rates
rise. In the late 1990s/early 2000s, variable interest rates for mortgages pre-
vailed in the UK (an extreme case where xed-rate periods were either non-
existent or short), Finland, the Netherlands,4 Ireland, Greece, Spain, and
Portugal. However, Greece and Italy had very low shares of housing loans to
households as percentage to GDP (1012 percent), and in Ireland and Spain
the ratio was modest at around 30 percent (ECB 2003: table 5.1).
4
Mortgages in the Netherlands tend to be xed rate, but their average duration is only
ten years.
130
Finally, there are potential effects on banking. High interest rates for re-
nancing credit from the central bank or the money market tend to squeeze
banks margins, especially if the government leans on banks, as it did in
France, not to pass on rising renancing costs fully into lending costs. Banks
are likely to become more risk averse because the depressing effect on eco-
nomic activity and the likely fall in property prices make their non-
performing loans go up. Thus the banking sector becomes less stable when
interest rates rise. More generally, volatile interest rates make banks very
fragile because, typically, they earn more exible rates on their assets and
pay less exible ones on their liabilities. So a rapid decline in market interest
rates, lowering their returns on assets while xed interest rates on the savings
products they offer stay high, depresses their earnings; a rapid rise in interest
rates may lead to an outow of deposits if banks do not pass on higher market
rates, which can immediately raise their renancing costs.
High interest rates thus affect different politically salient constituencies:
investing businesses, indebted households, not least the Treasury. This applies
to governments of soft- and hard-currency countries alike, although their
worries may be a mirror image of each other: default of businesses in the
one and non-performing loans of banks in the other. A high average level of
interest rates usually goes hand in hand with high volatility that makes
nance a tricky, highly speculative business for banks and their customers.
Thus, preventing a sustained phase of high nominal and real interest rates was
a common concern of all governments. The bet was that they would be more
likely to achieve this by committing fully and visibly to the monetary union
than by leaving the road to Maastricht, each fending for themselves.
Low ination and low interest rates in the long run made commitment to a
hard currency a viable proposition for very different countries, or more pre-
cisely: different constituencies and alliances in member states. Frieden (2002)
and, more recently, Walter (2008) have been champions of this disaggregated
view of monetary integration, systematically refuting the assumption that
member states are unitary actors when they choose exchange rate arrange-
ments. Disaggregation of interests helps to explain how diverse member states
nd common concerns which form the basis for political agreements. But
while sectoral interests provide important support for political initiatives, they
do not set the agenda. The sparse research that has looked closely into organ-
ized business lobbying for the euro does not provide strong evidence for a
pivotal role (Collignon and Schwarzer 2002).
There is a widely held view that governments aspired to become Germany
in economic policy terms, trying to emulate its model of low ination and
high export surpluses in the hope of the same success. The most sophisticated
and intriguing explanation along those lines is that of Kathleen McNamara
(1998: 6571): she ascribes a crucial role to Germany in that its incarnation of
131
the neoliberal-monetarist paradigm apparently proved to other European

countries that the paradigm can produce stability and growth. My interpret-
ation is that governments were fully aware of their hard-wired diversity and
made no attempt to socially engineer their political economies in the German
image. As already mentioned in Chapter 1, the Delors report acknowledged
that plurality of nations in the Community would prevail (Committee 1989:
para. 17). Nor did governments all fall for monetarism, although they were
certainly in search of a workable paradigm that could replace Keynesian pump
priming with its inationary consequences (Hall 1989). There was never a full
monetarist take-over in Europe. Monetarist thinking supported entirely ex-
ible exchange rates and required governments to refrain from institutional or
discretionary ways of inuencing interest rates. It is more in line with the
institutional choices we observe that governments saw advantages for stability
and prosperity in a monetary arrangement that reduced risk premia and gave
the labor market parties no pretext for inationary price and wage setting.
But were governments fooling themselves as Martin Feldstein (2012) sug-
gested? In the period of preparation to join the monetary union (19929),
high long-term real interest rates (Figure 5.1) and volatility for the weaker
members (Figure 5.2) persisted. One should note, however, that until 1993,
in some cases 1995, there was no internationally binding denition of what
long-term interest rates are.5 No clear NorthSouth divide in performance can
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
D tes
e
nd
k
m
nd
er e
y
ria
ga
nd
ar
et Ital
an
ec
c
ai
iu
an
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la
la
a
Sp
m
rtu
re
rla
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lg
St
2.0
Au
Ire
n
Fr
en
G
Fi
Be
Po
he
d
G
ite
3.0
Un
N
198491 19929 20007
Figure 5.1. Average long-term real interest rates 19842007

Source: nominal interest rates deated by consumer prices; own calculation from AMECO; West
Germany until 1991, no data for Greece in 198991
5
In Austria, a government bond of more than one year maturity was long-term. Since 1995,
most countries take the central government ten-year bond as the benchmark for long-term rates,
132
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Be ia
m
er e
e
nd
he ly
Po ds
D tes
k
ga
ar
an
c
ec
ai
an
ta
r
iu
n
an
st
la
a
Sp
m
rtu
re
rla
I
m
nl
lg
St
Au
Ire
Fr
en
G
Fi
d
G
ite
et
Un
N
198491 19929 20007
Figure 5.2. Volatility of long-term real interest rates 19842007

Source: own calculation from AMECO; West Germany until 1991, no data for Greece in 198991
be found during that period. For France and Italy, the Maastricht convergence
process brought little impact on interest rate levels and, for Italy, some cost in
volatility; only after monetary union did they share in the widespread decline
in both. Greece moved from highly volatile, but overall negative, real interest
rates towards slightly more stability but at very high positive levels; Spain and
Portugal saw some easing of volatility. Interest rates remained high generally:
the comparison with Denmark shows that even a highly developed and
creditworthy country paid high real interest rates, admittedly because Denmark
went through a difcult economic time in the 1980s.6
While the payoff on interest rates only materialized with monetary union,
post-Maastricht commitments were matched by a strong decline in ination
outturns (Figure 5.3). There was a substantial and sustained change for the
four Southern European countries in ination performance. France is the
country the ination record of which resembles most closely that in non-EA
countries shown for reference: the US and Denmark. In the 1990s, French
policymakers were apparently engaged in competitive disination vis--vis
Germany (Fitoussi et al. 1993: 1730). After monetary union, cross-national
variation in ination rates was small but of course crucial for real interest rate
outturns (Figure 5.4). Exceptionally low German ination meant high real
interest rates there, relative to Southern European countries and Ireland.
but for Greece, interest rates are available only for twelve months Treasury bonds issued by the
central government (AMECO 2005: 102).
6
Data on long-term interest rates for other economies outside the EA, in Central and Eastern
Europe, but also Iceland or Turkey, are only available from the early to mid-2000s onwards.
133
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Be ia
m
er e
e
nd
D tes
k
ga
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ar
an
et Ital
c
ec
ai
an
r
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la
a
Sp
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rtu
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nl
lg
St
Au
Ire
Fr
en
G
Fi
Po
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G
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198491 19929 20007
Figure 5.3. Average ination rates 19842007, GDP deator

7.00
6.00
Standard deviation
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Long-term real interest rate Inflation (GDP deflator)
Figure 5.4. Convergence between EA-11 member states, 19842007

Convergence between the prospective eleven EA members, measured in

standard deviations from the mean, was considerably more pronounced for
(ow7) ination than for interest rates, as Figure 5.4 shows. Note that nominal
interest rate convergence after monetary union means that variation in ina-
tion and variation in real interest rates become equivalent.
7
Flow ination refers to consumer price ination or the GDP deator, by contrast with asset
price ination.
134
The remaining divergence between real interest rates came from the fact
that the former hard-currency members tended to have lower ination rates
still than the former soft-currency members which drove real interest rates in
different and unexpected directions. But the pattern is not uniformItaly and
Greece did not have ination rates that were noticeably higher. It looked as if
the two goals of low ination and more stable low interest rates had been
achieved.
5.2 The Interfaces of Money, Banking, and State Budgets
The move towards greater stability was achieved at the cost of some growth
(Section 7.1), leading to criticism that the Maastricht process was a straitjacket
on very different economies. A number of critics attribute this to the ideo-
logical hegemony of neo- or ordoliberalism (Blyth 2013; Schmidt and Thatcher
2013; Schfer 2016). The emphasis on rule-based policymaking and active
promotion of competitive markets is certainly compatible with an ideological
interpretation (Amable 2010: 17). Ideas have usually their greatest inuence
when something new is to be tried out which does not yet have stakeholders,
unlike the status quo to be overcome. But ideas can also be used strategically, to
further ones interest through principled legitimation. Jabko (2006: 479 and
passim) shows this in detail for the Delors Commission that became a champion
of market integration, with market liberalization as the instrumental idea to win
over supporters that were not per se interested in the centralization of European
powers.
The rst section argues that the straitjacket was the outcome of contestation
over solutions to collective action problems, which the dominant country,
Germany, justied in ideological terms. Subsequently, the EA countries built
an extensive regulatory polity devoted to monitoring potential free riding, to
managing spillovers, and to supervising commitments. That the practices
embedded in this policy architecture were scally conservative is undeniable.
But as the parties had to govern the commons, they arguably noticed that a
neoliberal hands-off approach did not solve their collective action problems.
It was, ironically, the supposedly neoliberal camp of member states around
Germany (under Conservative administrations) that called for ever more
detailed rules.
5.2.1 The Set-Up of the Euro Area System

The original architecture of the EA can be described like a building designed by
Le Corbusier, a functionalist-modernist vision projected onto buildings and
urban design (Pisani-Ferry 2013: 19). It separated the tasks of macroeconomic
135
stabilization and assigned each to particular institutions (Cour-Thimann and

Winkler 2013: 57). Price stabilization, understood as targeting a low ination
rate, was made the task of a supranational central bank that is singularly
independent from governments. Sustainable nancing of public goods and
built-in counter-cyclical stabilization was assigned to national governments
with no recourse to monetary nancing or supranational bailout funds. And
nancial risk regulation and supervision was made the job of national author-
ities within a common and detailed legal framework that dened rights and
responsibilities in home and host countries.
This functionalist assignment was the outcome of a political struggle, not the
plan (Dyson and Featherstone 1999: 43848). The struggle touched on pro-
found constitutional questions. For instance, the ERM had been an agreement
between central banks outside the EU frameworkso should the policy archi-
tecture of the EA be an intergovernmentalist agreement, abandoning the usual
Community method of integration? This was what the Dutch Presidency under
Wim Kok proposed in autumn 1990. It implied that the adoption of the euro in
stage III of the Maastricht process would be voluntary and taken by each
government for itself. This was rmly rebuffed by the French administration
and the German chancellor, although the German chief negotiator expressed
sympathy for Koks plan. France and Germany insisted on the Community
method, whereby member states agreed on binding minimum harmonization
that could be exceeded but not undercut at the national level. Decisions about
EA membership were to be taken by the Council with unanimity.
There was also quite some controversy as to how the exchange rate regime
would be decided. Should there be a managed parity with the US dollar or not,
and should this be decided by the central bank autonomously, by the Coun-
cil, or both together? Article 219 TFEU settles the issue in favor of overlapping
competences in the sense that the Council can decide on an exchange rate
regime that the ECB then has to implement, unless the central bank can argue
that the price stability mandate would be jeopardized. This implies that the
ECB could not be ordered to maintain a xed peg to the US dollar if the Fed
tolerates relatively high ination. This overlap of competences was supported
by the German government but opposed by the Bundesbank (Moravcsik
1998: 4445).
The resulting constitution is marked by this compromise, at times tension,
between national prerogatives and supranational regulation. The EA is institu-
tionally intergovernmentalist, with the Council as the ultimate self-regulatory
body, while the principles of integration conformed to the Community
method. Member states are required to qualify for irreversible membership
rather than having a choice, and commonly agreed rules have formal suprem-
acy over national self-determination. However, the commonly agreed rules are
often exible in interpretation, with the Council having the nal say.
136
The two shaded cells in the table represent the Maastricht pillars of monet-
ary and scal policy, respectively. Monetary policy is assigned to ensure
nominal stability, that is a low average rise in prices denominated in the
euro; scal policy is supposed to stabilize national public nances for which
there were supranational rules. Financial integration and stabilization (entry 9
in Table 5.1) was part of the Single Market Programme, institutionally separate
from managing the common currency. The Financial Services Action Plan
implemented a massive upward harmonization of regulatory standards,
timed to occur alongside monetary union (Quaglia 2008, 2010).
The formal denition of the ECBs independence has been the subject of
much discussion because it amounts to a radical innovation. International or
supranational money had previously only been issued by hegemonic powers
like the British Empire and the United States. But the ECB was divorced from
nation state powers in an unprecedented way, to paraphrase Charles
Goodhart (1998). Article 130(1) TFEU spells out the essence of the ECBs inde-
pendence: [N]either the European Central Bank, nor a national central bank,
nor any member of their decision-making bodies shall seek or take instructions
Table 5.1. Channels and interfaces of risk sharing in the original EA
Fiat money 1 Price stability: 2 Demand stabilization and 3 Transmission of monetary

scal backstops: policy signals:
Independent central (Automatic and discretionary Collateral framework of the
bank targeting demand stabilization as well ECB
goods price and as bank restructuring at
wage ination national level)
Oversight of
payments system
Public nance 4 Monetary back-up 5 Debt sustainability/ 6 Government debt nance:
to sovereigns: employment stabilization:
Seignorage shared Fiscal rules and surveillance Identical zero risk weighting
within Eurosystem leaving capacity for of government bonds for
Strict prohibition of structural reform and purposes of regulatory
debt monetization/ national automatic capital calculations
lender of last resort stabilizers (Basel Accord)
to sovereigns
Private nance 7 Liquidity risk 8 Solvency risk management: 9 Financial stability:
management:
Compensation for National deposit guarantee Harmonized prudential
lender of last resort schemes with minimum regulation (Financial
to banks within standards set in EU Directive Services Action Plan)
Eurosystem
Unied payments (Bank resolution at national (Prudential supervision at
system (TARGET2) level) national level)
Discount policy to
integrate sovereign
bond market
Source: own elaboration; text in brackets denotes policies under national competences
137
from Union institutions, bodies, ofces or agencies, from any government of a

Member State or from any other body. Most observers see in this formal
decision-making independence the long shadow of the Bundesbanks political
inuence on the negotiations for the monetary union. But this isolation from
political inuence was conferred on the European System of Central Banks
(ESCB or Eurosystem) by the Delors Committee, to reassure skeptical central
bankers throughout Europe, not only in the Bundesbank (Dyson and
Featherstone 1999: 6067).
The original provisions for scal policy (entry 5 in Table 5.1) are remin-
iscent of the rst, most minimal, American confederation (Chapter 4). The
EU has no direct taxation powers and no member state is obliged to bail
outthat is assume or guarantee liabilities ofanother member state.
Coordination of scal policies between EA members must serve to ensure
budgetary discipline (Article 136(1a) TFEU), based on the principle that
all EU member states shall avoid excessive government decits (Article
126(1) TFEU). The latter Article dened an elaborate set of steps and
sanctions, for instance that the European Investment Bank may reconsider
its lending if a government is a serial offender against the scal rules. An
Excessive Decit Procedure is dened in two Regulations and could be
opened against all EU members, not just those in the EA. At the end of it,
further sanctions could be applied to EA member states only. There is no
equivalent to this elaborate system of scal surveillance in any scal fed-
eration. In the US, state legislatures enforce balanced budget rules: the
federal government has no say.
However, the incarnation of scal discipline, the Stability and Growth Pact
(SGP), was actually an afterthought to the negotiations. On the minds of
leading experts were current-account imbalances and market instability due
to capital ows (James 2012: 12, 1967). The political negotiations left these
issues unaddressed, and instead fastened onto the risks posed by unsustain-
able scal policies. In this narrow vision, instability must be caused by gov-
ernment failure.8 This political economy diagnosis, advanced by two
dominant member states, Germany and the Netherlands, but also by some
Treasuries, not least the Italian, underpinned the peculiar macroeconomic
institutions of the EA.
The scal provisions addressed the supposed moral hazard problem that,
because the threats of higher risk premia and currency devaluation had been
removed, governments would exploit the common currency by incurring
8
There was also a preoccupation with wage settlements being incompatible with price stability
but there was no policy process attached to it and so it had only the quality of OECD advice. Most
importantly, wage developments in the EA overall could not be accused of jeopardizing price
stability (Arpaia and Pichelmann 2007: 57), although reforms of wage-bargaining systems were
justied on grounds of competitiveness.
138
excessive levels of debt. Fiscal risk sharing could only make this problem
worse. In the world view of the German and Dutch hawks, there was no
place for scal activism to achieve stability. All that was needed was scal
restraint: this would ensure that the most problematic externalities would be
reined in and the commitment to prudent policies enforced. Financial invest-
ors could possibly exercise some discipline through risk premia. While the
Delors Committee was uncertain about the efcacy of market discipline
(James 2012: 17, 2489), the scal surveillance authorities in the Commission
did not put much faith in it, especially after Italys sovereign credit rating
improved just as the government was found to run an excessive decit (Buti
et al. 2003: 14).
The two main pillars of the original architecture limited risk sharing to the
provision of a stable currency, they were not concerned with pooling risks to
macroeconomic stability (Schelkle 2005, 2006). These provisions specied
scal rectitude and monetary soundness. Public debt would be reduced to
sustainable levels (60 percent of GDP) and kept there by containing scal
decits (to 3 percent), while ination would not be allowed to rise above
2 percent (the ofcial ECB target).
5.2.2 Elements of Risk Sharing before 2008

Even though the original architecture limited risk sharing, it did provide some
risk sharing. Ofcial documents, such as the Commission report on the major
costs and benets of the European monetary union (Directorate-General
1990: 26) and the relevant summit conclusions, stressed the gains from cur-
rency stability, particularly in boosting growth in the long run. The following
discussion shows how the negotiation and reregulation of the EA policy
framework established the terms of an ex ante arranged risk pool. It amounted
toand was conned toinsurance against nominal instability. The discus-
sion takes up rst the safeguards against adverse selection and moral hazard,
before turning to the insurance implicit in features of the ECBs constitution.
CONVERGENCE CRITERIA AGAINST ADVERSE SELECTION

The convergence criteria for EA membership had no foundation in main-
stream economic theory (Buiter 2004). But they made sense as safeguards
against adverse selection. To this very day, aspiring members must, in addition
to meeting the scal criteria noted above, comply with provisions on ina-
tion, interest rates, and exchange rates. Their ination and long-term interest
rates must not exceed a maximum margin above the average of the three
lowest national rates in the EU (not the EA, and not merely the average), and
they must have achieved a stable exchange rate, dened as not devaluing for
two years beyond the limit set by the target zone of the ERM. In addition, they
139
must have a national central bank that is independent from the government.
All these criteria were meant to guarantee a membership for a low risk pool as
regards stable money.
The immediate motivation for German negotiators, in setting the scal
conditions in particular, was to raise the bar for the accession of Italy, a big
member state that was highly indebted (Dyson and Featherstone 1999:
5323). The three stages of the Maastricht process meant that member states
had to spend about two election periods qualifying for membership. This
strengthened the position of technocrats in national administrations. After
all, national administrations are not unitary actors. Italian governments
have often been deeply divided between modernizers and traditionalists.
During the lead up to accession, the Italian legislature abolished supposedly
sacrosanct institutions of its political economy like wage indexing (scala
mobile) and the seniority bias in its pension system (Regini and Regalia
2013: 21415).
It was received with great Schadenfreude that the German government
struggled to meet the criteria and was itself caught in attempts to manipulate
the scal indicators. A notorious example was the proposal of nance minister
Theo Waigel to revalue Bundesbank gold reserves which were priced at
historically low levels, sell the excess reserves and reduce public debt with
the proceeds. But Bundesbank protests and Eurostat rulings thwarted this plan
(Savage 2005: 1236). The Bundesbanks case was purely political: the gold
reserves were indeed undervalued but the German government would have
lost the moral high ground if it were seen to be engaged in such maneuvers. It
was obviously also a welcome opportunity for the Bundesbank to demonstrate
its independence and presumably its displeasure with the introduction of the
euro, to the great embarrassment of a Conservative nance minister.
FISCAL SURVEILLANCE AGAINST MORAL HAZARD

Fiscal surveillance was designed as a commitment technology for national
executives (Schelkle 2006, 2007). The no-bailout clause and the SGP (entry 5
of Table 5.1) have always been explicitly justied as precautions against moral
hazard which the insurance of a common currency may engender. The no-
bailout clause of Article 125(1) TFEU reads:
The Union . . . [or a] Member State shall not be liable for or assume the commit-
ments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other
bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of another Member State,
without prejudice to mutual nancial guarantees for the joint execution of a
specic project.
This is analogous to clauses in private health insurance contracts that

exclude the coverage of injuries incurred in dangerous sports. Yet such
140
exemptions from coverage cannot exclude similar injuries incurred in

engaging in reasonably safe activities. Hence, the no-bailout clause is pre-
ceded by Article 122(2) TFEU:
Where a Member State is in difculties or is seriously threatened with severe

difculties caused by natural disasters or exceptional occurrences beyond its
control, the Council, on a proposal from the Commission, may grant, under
certain conditions, Union nancial assistance to the Member State concerned.
The President of the Council shall inform the European Parliament of the
decision taken.
It was this Article that allowed the Council to help the Greek scal authorities
in May 2010, based on interpreting the nancial crisis of 20089 as an excep-
tional occurrence beyond the Greek governments control.
The scal rules were rst drafted in 1995 by the German Treasury under the
name of a Stability Pact. This initiative reected the Bundesbanks de facto
veto position at this stage of integration, which had to be accommodated by
some assurances (Moravcsik 1998: 304404). After a major conict with the
French government under Lionel Jospin, Growth was added to the name
(Dyson and Featherstone 1999: 426; 78990), although this made hardly any
difference in substance.
In its original formulation, key gures, including Germanys nance minis-
ter, thought that the scal rules could be kept simple to implement. Waigel
favored a nominal rather than a cyclically adjusted decit criterion, insisting
that 3% is 3%. But, even in nominal terms, the general government decit is
an extremely complex statistic to calculate (Savage 2005: 625; Mabbett and
Schelkle 2014: 1419). The decit measure of the SGP had not been produced
by any member state before it was required by EU scal surveillance. It
includes the consolidated balances of central, regional, and local governments
as well as the balance of social security funds that often have their own
nancial accounts (so-called para-sci). One cannot nd this statistic for
the United States.
Early on, the crucial decit indicator was changed to a cyclically adjusted
decit indicator. This addressed the criticism that otherwise scal rules may
force member states to pro-cyclical retrenchment. Cyclical adjustment lters
out revenues and expenditures that are higher or lower because of the
cyclical state of the economy, and calculates the budget balance that will
be attained when the economy returns to trend or potential GDP. The
cyclically adjusted or structural budget balance was seen as a measure for
which governments can be held accountable, whereas the nominal measure
is affected by economic circumstances beyond their control. A primary scal
decit, excluding interest payments, would be an even more meaningful
measure of government discretion, as Olivier Blanchard (1990: 67, 1112)
141
argued early on in a study for the OECD. Interest rate payments on public
debt accumulated over time are also not under the control of a present
administration. Cyclical adjustment, particularly the calculation of trend
GDP, is far from a straightforward procedure and different methods can
lead to rather different estimates. The Commission has endeavored to moni-
tor structural balances directly, and there has been a proliferation of indica-
tors, notably of age-related spending categories and contingent liabilities
from pensions (Schelkle 2009: 834). Commission ofcials at the operational
level tended to shift attention from annual outturns and insisted on the
importance of the medium-term objective of a cyclically balanced position,
providing a justication for the postponement of enforcement action
(Mabbett and Schelkle 2016a: 129).
The SGP became an evolving regime of inspections, with the threat of hard
sanctions for excessive decits (above 3 percent of GDP) but also the obliga-
tion to ensure a counter-cyclical stance over the cycle (the medium-term
objective). The interest of veto players like the Bundesbank, vehemently
opposed to the euro, had ironically the effect of giving more impetus to
regulatory competences of the EU in scal policy. The outcome has been
and still is institutionalized collective action on a grand scale (Hallerberg
et al. 2009; Schelkle 2009). No such collective action of restraint was ever
considered necessary in the Benelux monetary union between Belgium, with
a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 100 percent, and Luxembourg, with a ratio of
10 percent that predated the EA (Wildasin 2002: 253). This suited the German
administration also for domestic purposes because the alleged scal prudence
of Germany is a grand myth, perpetuated by scholars who are actually quite
critical of ordoliberalism; like most scal federations, it has a continuous
struggle with hard budget constraints in a system of devolved budgetary
policies (Rodden and Wibbels 2002: 501).
The exclusion of Parliament from adjudicating cases of excessive decits or
need for assistance indicates that member state executives intended to treat
the Pact as governance of a commons, on which national democracies should
feed sustainably. Consistent with Ostroms monitoring theory, discussed in
Chapter 2, the scal rules enshrined in the SGP leave it to peers in the Council
to decide whether a user of the commons has indeed overexploited the
collective goodthere are no rules which would force member states to
consider the underexploitation of their scal room for maneuver. The rules
distinguish between bad luck, providing the case for insurance, and negli-
gence, and interpret an excessive decit or rising public debt as prima facie
negligence not covered by the insurance of EA membership and thus possibly
subject to a ne. The insurance consists in being able to nance an admissible
decit without sending alarming signals to markets or incurring a risk pre-
mium in the form of a sanction.
142
Decits above 3 percent of GDP occurred from the start: Portugal was
the rst member state ever to break the then applicable scal rules in 2001.9
But, as of mid-2016, no EA member state has ever been sanctioned under the
Excessive Decit Procedure. The dominant interpretation in the literature of
why sanctions were never imposed is that every member state government
anticipated sitting in the dock one day. They were turkeys deciding on the
menu for Christmas, refusing to police each other. In other words, the
enforcement system itself suffers from moral hazard, this time in teams
(Holmstrom 1982). It is equally plausible to argue, however, that the exter-
nality of overgrazing (debt and decits dened as excessive) was not obvious
to the monitors of the commons. Their incentives therefore favored retaining
scal exibility which is different from collusion and moral hazard. The
envisaged sanctions made so little sense, imposing a ne on a country in scal
difculties only to aggravate these difculties, that not even the most hard-
nosed administrations advocated it when a case came before the Council.
Given that this has happened over and over again, the most plausible rational
argument is that the scal rules were meant to signal to each other that those
above 3 percent decit or 60 percent debt are in breach of a commitment; and
while they may not be sanctioned, they cannot hope for leniency if public
debt becomes a problem.
CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE AND MUTUAL INSURANCE

The mandate of the ECB ensured that primacy was attached to achieving
the collective good of low ination (entry 1 of Table 5.1). Article 127(1)
TFEU states:
The primary objective of the European System of Central Banks . . . shall be to

maintain price stability. Without prejudice to the objective of price stability, the
ESCB shall support the general economic policies in the Union with a view to
contributing to the achievement of the objectives of the Union.
Stability of employment and the exchange rate are thus subordinate even
though they have been major national concerns driving attempts at monetary
integration since the 1970s. Subordination of the employment goal was facili-
tated by a new economic consensusto which ECB research has contributed
signicantlythat used the output gap for ination targeting (Schelkle and
Hassel 2013: 17). Too little employment would show up in disinationary
pressures, conversely approaching or exceeding full employment would result
in ination. Ination targeting was therefore seen as a shorthand for
9
The Excessive Decit Procedures against member states are documented on the Commission
website, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_nance/economic_governance/sgp/corrective_arm/index_
en.htm (accessed October 31, 2015).
143
macroeconomic stabilization, with all the gains this would bring. But if mon-
etary policy failed to have such benecial side effects, there was little the
central bank could and should do. It then came down to scal authorities to
engage in reforms such as supply-side labor market policies (which central
bankers often advocated).
Many commentators draw attention to the Germanic ordoliberal ideol-
ogy that such a strong form of independence projects.10 But despite the
importance of Germany in the genesis of the European monetary union, the
government did not seek institutional hegemony in running the ECB. From
the start, the Governing Council was a comparatively egalitarian institution,
at least against the benchmark of the US, where the president of the New York
Fed has permanent representation on the Federal Open Market Committee
while all other presidents of district Feds rotate. In the Governing Council
of the ECB, there is no weighting of votes; the same formal voting power
applies to Germany (representing almost 17 percent of the ECBs capital) and
Malta (with 0.06 percent). As of January 2015, when Lithuania became the
nineteenth member, the ECB could no longer postpone the introduction of
the rotation system that the Treaty envisaged. The ve biggest members
(Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands) which hold together
57 percent of the ECBs capital have to take turns to abstain every ve months;
the remaining fourteen members representing 13 percent of the ECBs capital
have eleven votes and must therefore abstain periodically for three months
(ECB 2015a).11 A simulation exercise with slightly different parameters by
Bnassy-Qur and Turkisch (2009) suggests that rotation makes little differ-
ence compared with monetary policy decisions taken by a unitary board or a
system without rotation. In any case, the rotation system does not affect the
constitutive principle of one member, one vote in the ECBs Governing
Board, as the Council Decision (2003/223/EC: Preamble para (4)) establishing
the system emphasized.
These governance principles are pertinent for an institution of mutual
insurance. It is self-governed by a membership that consists of equals, deemed
to ensure loyalty and ownership by each and all. Obviously, the voices of the
German and French governors will be noted and publicly reported differently
from those of the Maltese or Cypriot governors. But the contestation over
extraordinary measures has also shown that the German Bundesbank can be
outvoted (interview 2015). Ofcials representing the Bundesbank position,
Axel Weber and Jrgen Stark, stepped down in protest against these measures
10
Notably Blyth (2013: 1314). Dullien and Gurot (2012) and Jacoby (2015) contain an update
and outline very different ideological positions represented in Germany. See also Hien (2013) for
a historically grounded account of the religious politics in post-war Germany in which
ordoliberalism was on the Protestant side against a strong Catholic tradition of corporatism.
11
The remainder, 30 percent of the capital, is subscribed by non-euro countries like the UK.
144
(Chapter 6) without doing any lasting damage to the reputation of the ECB as
a competent policymaker. Jrgen Stark was ofcially the chief economist of
the ECB but since he was not a particularly qualied economist, it was always
clear to observers that he got his assignment to lend a hawkish appearance to
the young institution. His resignation was meant to be a wake-up call but
turned out to be the nal curtain on a display of ordoliberalism. His doctrin-
aire and partisan voice was incompatible with the independence that the
same doctrinaire voices had requested in return for the egalitarian set-up of a
mutual institution.
The by-product theory of collective action can explain Germanys consent
to a common central bank that gave the Bundesbank no privileged status,
despite early attempts to establish it informally. Hierarchy, or in international
relations, hegemony, can resolve collective action problems between states
(Kindleberger 1973). But the country enjoying the privilege of shaping a
hegemonic system in its image also comes under pressure to full heavier
obligations than those it dominates. This means in turn that if the hegemon is
unwilling or incapable of bearing these obligations, it has a strong selective
incentive to push for an egalitarian institution and promote cooperation
(Eichengreen 1987). By restraining itself to equality among partners, a dom-
inant government can refuse to bear a disproportionate burden. It can insist
that all costs are shared proportionately. This was the essence of the German
approach to crisis management.
COLLATERALIZED ECB LENDING AS SOCIAL INSURANCE

Lending against collateral is a universal central bank practice (Cheun et al.
2009: 9). Through its lending policy, the ECB can create a more or less
inclusive risk pool for different assets (entries 3 and 7 of Table 5.1). It did
this through its policies on accepting and discounting assets as collateral: it
accepted the sovereign bonds of euro area member states and discounted
them uniformly.12 These bonds were not treated as one asset class by market
investors before currency unication, but the ECBs collateral policy effect-
ively made them one class and thus integrated these sovereign bond markets.
The statute of the Eurosystem only stipulates that lending to credit institu-
tions and other market participants has to be based on adequate collateral
(ESCB statute para 18(1)). The eligible securities are spelled out in the so-called
collateral framework. The ECBs ofcial aim in developing its collateral frame-
work was to protect itself against losses should a borrowing institution fail to
12
Collateral are assets that the central bank accepts as security, either for buying with a date set
for banks to repurchase them (repos) or simply when giving them credit (secured or
collateralized lending). The duration of such lending used to be quite short, sometimes
overnight but typically two weeks, and not more than three months.
145
honor its debt. Guarding against nancial losses is not so much an economic
necessity as a political imperative to signal competence and autonomy from
nancial pressures to lend (Bini-Smaghi 2011: sect.2). Central banks are gen-
erally under legal constraints to require collateral, and these constraints give
the governments that hold their loss-absorbing capital an opportunity to
review their actions (Cheun et al. 2009: 9n). This practice is not specic to
the ECB but is a particularly sensitive issue for it, given the importance
attached to its independence.
Until 2007, the ECB framework put all government bonds of a certain credit
rating (at least A-) in its so-called Tier 1 of collateral it accepts (ECB 1999:
523). All EA government bonds were eligible. Tier 1 assets had to full
uniform criteria specied by the ECB while Tier 2 consisted of assets which
were of particular importance to national nancial markets and banking
systems; the eligibility criteria were dened by national central banks and
approved by the ECB. Only in 2007 did the ECB feel that nancial integration
had gone far enough to abolish the second tier of eligible collateral and impose
uniform criteria. In comparison to major central banks, the ECB accepted the
largest variety of collateral but it also stipulated a high credit standard, the
equivalent of an A- rating, and applied high haircuts (Cheun et al. 2009: 910;
ECB 2013a: 9-11; Whelan 2014a: 89).
The ECBs collateral framework was criticized by Buiter and Sibert (2005: 3,
912) for treating all sovereign bonds in the EA as the same despite their very
different default risks. They argued, rst of all, that the ECB should not accept
as collateral bonds issued by member state governments in breach of the
SGP. Moreover, differences in default risks should be priced, which could be
done by applying differential haircuts: the discounts deducted from the
market value of assets that are accepted as security (collateral) in repurchasing
arrangements with banks or in determining loan amounts.13 The collateral
posted is marked to market daily and if prices go down the ECB (and other
central banks) ask the counterparties (borrowing banks) to post additional
collateral. The ECB applied different haircuts to different maturities of gov-
ernment bonds, because it argued that its haircuts price liquidity risk, not
default risk. In the view of Buiter and Sibert (2005: 24), this amounted to
treating the short-term default risk of all government bonds it accepted as
uniformly equal to zero, equivalent to an implicit bailout guarantee. This
practice also amounted to a low but signicant subsidy of less creditworthy
governments (Buiter and Sibert 2005: 1421). Furthermore, because all bonds
could be used to access ECB liquidity, the ECBs policy effectively suppressed
13
It is analogous to the discount that is applied to the valuation of a house which underpins a
mortgage loan. The ECB publishes which haircuts it applies to different categories of collateral on
its website. See ECB (2014a) for comparative data on major central banks collateral policies.
146
the markets evaluation of risk. This arguably led to too much interest rate
convergence and undermined market discipline.
It was obviously much less politically sensitive for the ECB to stipulate high
but uniform credit ratings (supplied by commercial agencies) than to engage
in its own assessments of each member states bonds. It is less obvious why the
acceptance of collateral was not tied to the EUs scal surveillance framework,
but there were interinstitutional obstacles. For the ECB to refuse to accept
bonds from governments which were in breach of the SGP would have meant
that the central bank was relying on the verdicts of the Commission and
Council to determine its collateral policy. In turn, the ECBs punishment
would have pre-empted the opening of an Excessive Decit Procedure by the
Commission. These institutional considerations are also aligned with an eco-
nomic argument. It would create quite some instability in nancial markets if
the ofcial notication of an excessive decit rendered the bonds of a member
state illiquid. The ECB would have generated strong market reactions and
volatility if it had used its collateral policy as a disciplining instrument for
scal policy.
The route chosen, of relying on credit ratings, meant that commercial rating
agencies exercised authority over collateral policy, just as they inuence
governments access to international capital markets. Accepting the verdicts
of commercial agencies was politically less salient, until the nancial crisis,
and reinforced the ECBs independence from the Council. Before the crisis,
credit rating agencies were more lenient disciplinarians than the SGP (Barta
and Schelkle 2015). With hindsight, agencies like Moodys and Standard &
Poors priced risk too indiscriminately and favorably, looking at very few
macroeconomic variables like ination rates and budget decits (Mosley
2003). This suited both sides: governments that were in search of non-
inationary sources of nancing growth and social security; and market
investors who, in a low yield environment, were looking for reasons to invest,
not reasons to abstain from investing.
The ECBs general objective in treating highly rated sovereign debt instru-
ments alike was to achieve integration of nancial markets. Counterparties,
meaning borrowing banks providing the collateral, could use the government
bonds from different countries as perfect substitutes because their national
central banks accepted them as collateral, following the so-called Correspond-
ent Central Banking Model (Cheun et al. 2009: 12n). This gave banks an
incentive to diversify their portfolios in terms of nationality of government
bonds, and this was apparently effective. Cheun et al. (2009: 12n) report that
the use of collateral on a cross-border basis in credit operations with the
Eurosystem increased from 12% in 1999 to more than 50% by 2006. Integra-
tion of nancial markets was a goal of the ECB because it would make for a
more uniform and predictable transmission of the ECBs interest rate policy.
147
In the absence of a single euro area government bond market, there was no
obvious instrument for open-market operations (central banks generally use
short-term Treasury bills). A portfolio of bonds had to be used, and this was
not established until the launch of the Covered Bond Purchase Programme in
July 2009 (Cheun et al. 2009: 11). Rather than using open-market operations,
the ECB lent to banks (Cheun et al. 2009: 11).
The side effect of this policy of creating an integrated nancial market was
social insurance of sovereign default risk, as Buiter and Sibert (2005) sensed
correctly and Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2013: 333) later rationalized for
central banking more generally. This insurance was social rather than private
because it was automatic (or mandatory) for all government bonds thus
classied, while the uniform insurance premium (the haircut) incorporated
all members without regard to their riskiness. This assumes that Buiter and
Sibert (2005) are correct to claim that nancial markets would have imposed
differentiated risk premia on sovereign bonds if the ECB had not treated them
uniformly.14 The policy of uniform treatment made perfect sensefrom the
ECBs point of view and even beyond this institutional perspectivegiven
how politically sensitive and nancially destabilizing differentiated treatment
would have been. Social insurance is likely to have weakened market discip-
line, but how much of a problem this is depends on judgments about how
responsive budget policies are to higher costs of debt nance and how efcient
markets are in pricing risks. The ECB could argue that the member states had
agreed on scal surveillance that was intended as a substitute for market
discipline and it was for them to exercise self-governance.
LENDING OF LAST RESORT WITH A RESIDUAL FISCAL BACKSTOP

Lending of last resort to banks (entry 7 of Table 5.1) is not explicitly mandated
in the Treaty or ECB Statute. There was no explicit nancial stability mandate
for the ECB apart from the obligation to promote the smooth operation of
the payments system and to contribute to member states conduct of
prudential supervision (Article 130 TFEU). Even if there had been such a
mandate, it would probably not have been high on the agenda (Toniolo and
White 2015: 413). Before the nancial crisis, all major central banks based
their policy decisions on models that did not contain a nancial sector in any
meaningful way. This simplied the analysis considerably and the prevailing
policy consensus did not suggest that it was necessary to include this compli-
cating factor (Schelkle and Hassel 2013: 19). Much more attention was paid to
labor markets and their inationary role.
14
This policy persisted during the crisis when bond market investors actually differentiated
between default risks. See Whelan (2014a: 1011) for a critical evaluation.
148
But, as just outlined, the ECB is autonomous in dening the terms of its
lending policy, the quality of collateral it accepts, and the haircut it applies.
Thus, in a liquidity crisis the ECB is able to lend against collateral of lower
credit rating than in normal times (Schinasi and Teixeira 2006: 13). This is
exactly what it did, engaging in qualitative easing by widening the set of
eligible collateral earlier than any other major central bank (ECB 2013a:
1415). It could thus reduce the risk that some banks which were illiquid
would become insolvent. The ECBs lending of last resort spreads the remain-
ing (diminished) solvency risk of the EA banking system to taxpayers in the EA.
Any losses the ECB incurs from its lending policyor from other sources
such as devaluation of foreign exchange reserves, for that matterdiminish
the value of seignorage that EA Treasuries receive.15 If the loss-absorbing
capital of the ECB were wiped out in lending operations, it would have to be
recapitalized by the subscribing governments.
The ESCB Statute (Article 32(4)) foresees that a national central bank can be
indemnied by the system of central banks if it rescues a systemically import-
ant nancial institution; the ECB, in turn, can be compensated for losses it
incurs in the course of lending to banks that can ultimately not be rescued by
asking for a share of the seignorage from each central bank (Article 33(2)). This
is a somewhat curious provision because it implies a quasi-scal capacity for
bank rescues within the Eurosystem, yet other policies point to rescues being a
national scal responsibility.
Finally, banks can also ask for Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) from
national central banks in the ESCB. This is an overnight lending facility for
which the national central bank can determine the collateral and for which
national authorities are liable to bear the credit risk. This means that banks can
receive credit from the national central bank against collateral that is not
eligible under ECB rules (Whelan 2014a: 12). If the amount granted exceeds
a certain value (2 billion as of 2015), the Governing Council of the ECB must
endorse it with qualied majority (ECB 2013b); the Council can also stop any
ELA lending by a national central bank with a two-thirds majority if it con-
cludes these operations interfere with the objectives of the Eurosystem.
Before the crisis, this oversight was seen as a safeguard against inationary
liquidity provision by national central banks. Since the crisis, ELA lending has
been suspected of serving as a way for member states to keep insolvent banks
aoat and effectively shift risks onto European rather than national taxpayers,
15
Seignorage is the surplus income that the Eurosystem earns from its issuance of at money,
which results from the volume of money issued, the interest rate earned on it and the cost of
printing and issuing this money (Vergote et al. 2010: 20). It is disbursed to the governments
according to their share in paid-in capital of the ECB. Seignorage can be negative, for instance if
a central bank makes huge losses on its foreign exchange reserve if the currency strongly
appreciates and its interest earnings on the note issue are too low to compensate for it.
149
given that national Treasuries were themselves close to insolvency and would
not be able to bear more losses (Obstfeld 2013: 33n). The ECB became
extremely sensitive to this apparent moral hazard and engaged in some
heavy-handed political interventions during the crisis, for instance setting
the Irish and Cypriot government non-monetary conditions in return for
continued access of banks to ELA (Whelan 2014a: 1318). These interventions
were a way for the ECB to limit the Eurosystems assumption of credit risk and
shift it back to the sovereign.
These ways to lend in the last resort in a system of central banks amount to a
minimal or residual scal backstop. ELA is a way of roping in national scal
authorities when the ECB regards banks available collateral as inadequate.
When the ECB does choose to lend and subsequently insolvency ensues, the
compensatory mechanisms described above utilize the risk-pooling capacity
of seignorage. In the event of a negative feedback loop between bank nances
and public nances, last-resort lending can be used to interrupt the loop and
spread the cost of bank failure to all Treasuries by having the central bank
absorb the losses. Obviously, this is only a residual scal backstop as ECB
seignorage is small relative to outstanding claims. But it is remarkable that
existing legal provisions allow for monetary solidarity in lending of last resort,
as a by-product of increasing the loss-absorbing capacity of any one member
in the ESCB.16
5.2.3 Exemptions from Monetary Solidarity

The omissions in Table 5.1 are also telling as regards the scope of monetary
solidarity before the crisis. Two are particularly conspicuous and were expli-
citly discussed before the euro arrived: nancial supervision and joint scal
liabilities.
The lack of EU-level nancial supervision was spotted as a major shortcom-
ing early on (entries 8 and 9 in Table 5.1, respectively). The Single Market
Programme promoted cross-border nancial transactions and the introduc-
tion of a common currency was supposed to give nancial integration another
boost. But there was no supervisory and scal infrastructure to support market
integration. Governments ultimately could not agree on how to allocate scal
costs should a cross-border bank require recapitalization, or should savers in
such banks require compensation (Obstfeld 2013: 51; Schoenmaker and
Siegmann 2014). Initially, mutual recognition took the place of harmonized
supervision. Mutual recognition is the principle that what is lawfully
16
A blog by Steele and Whittaker (2012) discusses more far-reaching proposals by economists
as to whether the present value of seignorage should be used for central bank lending, able to
absorb losses.
150
produced in one member state must be considered to be lawfully produced in

any other member state. The license from one member state thus acts as a
banks passport to another member state. Host-country authorities rejected
the mutual recognition principle, however. They did not trust that home-state
supervisors would be able and willing to scrutinize bank branches abroad
sufciently closely. The way out was a program of upward harmonization
under an accelerated legislative process which implemented the ambitious
Financial Sector Action Plan (Posner 2007; Quaglia 2008).
Deposit guarantees and bank resolution procedures were also initially left to
national provision. Deposit guarantees are typically nanced or co-nanced
by fees from the nancial industry. In a systemic crisis, the funds accumulated
tend to be too low and governments have to bear the losses or give guarantees
to bear them, in the hope of recovering some of the costs from the industry
later.17 The EU stipulated minimum standards in the 1994 Deposit Guarantee
Schemes Directive (94/19/EC). It also had a say in bank resolution via state aid
control that allowed Treasuries to release funds only once the Commission
had approved such support (Schinasi and Teixeira 2006: 1213; Mabbett and
Schelkle 2014: 1617). By the time the nancial crisis broke, nancial market
regulation was actually quite densely regulated, leading to complaints about
red tape. But there was no pooling of resources in a cross-border deposit
guarantee fund like the FDIC in the US, and no supranational backing for
member states which had to step in and support their funds.
Overlapping competences also created uncertainty about who was respon-
sible when an emergency arose. A Memorandum of Understanding was agreed
between EU banking supervisors, central banks, and nance ministries in May
2005 regarding their roles and the rules of cooperation in the case of a systemic
crisis (Schinasi and Teixeira 2006: 9), but cooperation inevitably came under
strain in the nancial crisis. National regulators belonged to hard-to-reconcile
camps that blocked EU-level regulation, but this did not halt integration,
which proceeded through other international fora such as the Basel Commit-
tee.18 The Basel II framework allowed for extensive self-regulation of the
industry: for instance some banks were allowed to use their own risk models
to assess statutory capital requirements, subject only to inspection of the
models applied.
Financial integration saw the regulatory polity in action, with the Commis-
sion trying to coordinate collective action with little re power of its own. The
thrust was nancial integration rather than risk reduction and insurance. It
17
An exhaustive overview of EU deposit guarantee schemes in place before the crisis can be
found in JRC (2011: annex XXIV).
18
See Quaglia (2010: 101011) for the two camps on nancial regulation in the EU. Both Posner
and Vron (2010) and Underhill and Zhang (2008) argued strongly that EU nancial regulation was
part of an international (OECD world) approach.
151
was politically convenientand economically even justiableto treat nan-

cial supervision as part of the Single Market Programme rather than part of the
governance structure of the EA. This was to some extent even necessary
because one of the worlds leading nancial centers, the City of London, was
part of the EU but stayed outside the EA.
The second exclusion from the policy architecture of the EA was direct
scal risk sharing through joint public nances and monetization of public
debt even under extreme circumstances (entries 2 and 4 in Table 5.1) In
contrast to nancial supervision, the exclusion of budgetary pooling was
conscious and deliberate. Attempts to introduce some form of joint scal
stabilization were categorically rejected by the usual suspects from Germany
and the Netherlands, later joined by Finland. French counter-proposals were
never pursued with much insistence. Pre-Maastricht proposals for a stabil-
ization mechanism as effective as US scal federalism were worked out at
the request of the Council by staff in the European Commission. Yet, these
proposals were turned down at by the richer, Northern states at that time
(1993), partly because they saw it as paving the way to a transfer union
(Goodhart 2011).19 The fear was moral hazard of scal authorities: they
would have fewer incentives to stabilize their economies and engage in
reforms to reduce structural unemployment. The proposed mechanism had
actually addressed this fear because only a temporary rise, but not the level,
of unemployment would give an entitlement to insurance, so as to leave
incentives for combatting structural unemployment intact. Moreover, the
stabilizing payment in addition to national unemployment insurance would
have been paid only temporarily, for a year after the shock hit. But such ner
details were lost in translation from a report of experts to a debate among
governments.
It should be noted, however, that the stabilization of income ows, devised
by Alexander Italianer and various advisors for the Commission in the early
1990s (European Economy 1993) and revived recently, for instance by Dullien
(2014), would not have been able to deal with nancial panic. As we have seen
in Chapter 4, this requires an interface between monetary and scal policy,
not a purely scal mechanism. In the US, this interface is represented by the
FDIC, a deposit insurance and bank resolution authority, in normal times
nanced by the industry, its assets largely invested in the joint liability of US
Treasury bonds and closely working with the lender of last resort, the Fed, in
times of crisis.
19
Charles Goodhart contributed to the 1993 exercise; the work on these proposals was
presented in European Economy (1993: 415538). See also Schelkle (2001: 30613) and Dullien
and Schwarzer (2007).
152
5.3 The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity

in the Euro Area
The analysis of the system of macrostabilization in the EA leads to observa-

tions that are not easy to reconcile with the hypothesis that ordoliberal
hegemony prevailed. The negotiations on the initial set-up of EA institutions
were indeed marked by Germanys dominant bargaining position, particularly
in the emphasis on stability (Dyson and Featherstone 1999: 30669). The SGP
set the envelope for the admissible debt dynamic while the ECBs pursuit of an
ination target ensured that the monetary policy stance was restrictive. But
several aspects of the institutional framework were consistent with a collective
structure of governance in contrast to a hegemonic system. Membership was
established in a fairly inclusive way, helped by the fact that the German gate-
keeper also struggled with meeting the admission criteria. There were some
surprisingly mutual aspects to the set-up of the monetary authority: voting in
the ECB is egalitarian, the banks collateralized renancing policy pooled the
risks of sovereign bonds issued by different member states, and the Eurosys-
tem of national central banks can even engage in some residual scal risk
sharing through seignorage.
These nascent interfaces between monetary, scal, and nancial arrange-
ments contradict the impression that the institutional framework for monet-
ary union was all about avoiding risk sharing. Nor was the risk sharing that
occurred entirely accidental, even if it was not the primary intention of the
founders either. Decisions had to be made on how to apply the admission
criteria; the egalitarian voting system in the ECB had to be explicitly agreed;
the collateral policy had to be defended against critics. Compromises, not one
dominant ideology, became enshrined in the institutions, and this allowed
the ECB to operate more exibly at the height of the crisis than many would
have expected.
The debate about forming an economic and monetary union was ofcially
all about creating an area of open and stable markets. Thus the dening
conict in macroeconomic stabilization, between those who benet from
easy credit conditions and those who benet from tight money, was sup-
pressed in public discourse, in favor of the latter. Bringing down ination
expectations was the economic policy priority of the times. Before monetary
union, policymakers repeatedly had the experience that the satellite currency
areas were forced to use the policy interest rate to go against domestic cyclical
conditions, just in order to stabilize the exchange rate vis--vis the anchor
currency, while allowing their currencies to oat did not help macroeconomic
management. In the aftermath of the crisis in 19923, supposed to bring a halt
to monetary union, a large number of national administrations stayed the
course. Subsequent macroeconomic developments showed the currency
153
union to bring the benets of both low ination and low interest rates, as
hoped for.
Against this background, it is much more comprehensible why national
policymakers throughout the EU agreed to subject themselves to a policy
framework in which the collective action problems to be tackled, moral hazard
and scal externalities, were primarily dened by hard-currency countries.
Financial markets rewarded former soft-currency countries with the same
low costs of nancing public and private investment. But, as Chapter 6
shows, this was a regime that had no way of dealing with unsustainable
private debt that overwhelmed the bailing-out capacities of national scal
authorities. The interfaces of risk sharing existed but were weakly developed.
There was no protection against pro-cyclical market forces exposing former
soft-currency countries to boom-and-bust cycles. This triggered another round
of massive institution building. Even if the beginnings of the EA had been
neo- or ordoliberal, this ideology did not help to govern the commons and
could not be sustained.
The analysis of hidden forms of monetary solidarity alongside explicit limits
on certain forms of risk sharing highlights the distinctive relationship
between monetary and political integration. Governing the commons is dif-
ferent from the teleology of ever closer union. This expression is used by
commentators who envisage a sequential process of introducing economic,
monetary, and political union. The coronation theory suggests that the
collective decision procedures of a political union should be developed before
monetary union because only these procedures can give legitimate authority
for determining who should bear the risks once they materialize. The alterna-
tive leverage theory proposes that experience of the advantages of a mon-
etary union will pave the way for political community building. The
coronation theory was popular among German and Dutch policymakers,
notably in the Bundesbank (Dyson and Featherstone 1999: 291; Maes and
Verdun 2005: 33940). The leverage theory is ascribed primarily to French and
Belgian policymakers although a famous plan authored by two German Con-
servatives, Karl Lamers and Wolfgang Schuble, also tted this description
(Hodson 2009: 511; Maes and Verdun 2005: 336).20
In light of the theory of interstate cooperation, we can see that the two
concepts and political integration strategies indicate the different time hori-
zons (or more technically: discount rates) of the negotiating parties. The hard-
currency states, led by Germany and the Netherlands, adhered to a coronation
20
The coronation theory is also known as an economist approach because of its emphasis on
real economic and political integration coming rst; the leverage theory is known as a monetarist
approach because of its recommendation to introduce a common currency rst (Torres 2007).
These labels are rather confusing and therefore avoided here.
154
view of monetary union and were thus always happy to retreat to the waiting
room until others conceded. They were in no haste to introduce the common
currency, hence they could be in favor of this being the organic outcome of
political integration. Patience gave them asymmetric bargaining power in
selecting which collective action problems should be prioritized and hard-
wired in the institutional solutions. The leverage concept was supported by
those who were anxious to see the source of asymmetric shocks to their
economies, Bundesbank policy, to be closed off for good.
Both views entail a conundrum. Coronation and leverage stipulate that a
non-state moneyor money without politics as Erik Jones (2002) put it
will either lead or follow political integration, understood as federal state
building. Neither species the exact mechanisms that would make this hap-
pen (Hodson 2009: 510, 512). I suggest that there is no necessity for monetary
union to stimulate political integration of the state-building kind. Instead
monetary union brings with it a distinct form of political integration, under-
stood as ongoing collective action. Governing a commons (Ostrom 1990),
monitoring the risk pool of a common currency by its members, entails
political integration as a process. For instance, scal surveillance in the EA is
political integration, even though it was accompanied by resistance to scal
risk sharing.
Political integration is typically thought of as either forming a (federal)
nation state or identifying with (symbols of) a particular community. But
states and their citizens also become politically integrated if they let them-
selves be governed by constraints that take other members concerns into
account. Political integration in this sense of the concept is a continuum
and can go through periods of reversal. Power asymmetries and dominance
by one nation over another are not excluded; after all, empires were also
politically integrated. However, in the EU and in federations like the US,
political integration happens through a horizontal (state-to-state) transfer
of authority by states that are legally and normatively entitled to self-
determination (Nicolades 2013: 6). For this voluntary transfer of authority to
occur, it is essential that respect for constraints is mutual. This is required
not only to ensure reciprocity in the long run but also to provide the experience,
especially among previously weaker members, that the ip side of constraints
is protection and more room for maneuver thanks to the considerate behavior
of others. This transfer can ultimately take the form of demoicracy in which
different peoples govern together but not as one (Nicolades 2013: 4; Cheneval
and Schimmelfennig 2013).
Member states, their elected representatives, and the majority of voters who
elect them certainly accept a lot of common governance. The inuential work
of Giandomenico Majone (1996) and his collaborators captured the nature of
governing together but not as one and explained why member state
155
sovereigns accept this. These scholars understood the EU as a regulatory state

or polity. Developed in the heyday of the Single Market Programme, the
regulatory state was characterized as a fourth branch of government for
transnational economic regulation (Majone 1993a). The regulatory polity
addresses collective action problems. In order to achieve gains for domestic
rms and households, governments must agree on minimum standards and
state authorities must internalize negative external effects of national prac-
tices, such as protectionism or excessive debt. The expansion of the regulatory
polity can create centralized authority, reaching deeply into the scal account-
ing systems of national administrations and institutions regulating money
and credit. But it is not state building in the sense of creating a political entity
that attracts identication and allegiance from citizens (Mabbett and Schelkle
2009: 70812; Genschel and Jachtenfuchs 2014).
The regulatory state form of political integration ties in with national
tendencies to delegate policies to independent agencies (Moravcsik 2002:
606). Delegation can empower the executive and insulate public policies
from the inuence of powerful interest groups as well as from electoral pres-
sures. This can be seen as generating a democratic decit, an argument put
most forcefully by Follesdal and Hix (2006). Yet this apparent decit arises for
the very reason that the regulatory polity addresses decits of democracy:
specically, the tendency of national democracies to neglect the concerns of
outsiders affected by their decisions, such as foreigners and future generations.
The European Court of Justice can be a powerful ally of the regulatory polity
as will become obvious in Chapter 8. The drive for transparency, information,
and accountability creates judicially enforceable rules. It gives organizations
(and individuals through organizations) a venue to challenge their govern-
ment. While such Eurolegalism (Kelemen 2011) has mostly been used for
market integration, the intergovernmental Fiscal Compact of 2012 has, for the
rst time, enlisted the Court of Justice for the enforcement of scal rules.
There is obviously an element of randomness and bias involved in judicial
governance since those who are likely to litigate are those dissatised with the
status quo, as Dan Kelemens work shows in detail. Even so, accepting its
verdicts, based on the supremacy of supranational law, is an expression of
political integration.
The introduction and maintenance of the euro is part of political integra-
tion.21 Monetary and political integration are not separate processes that can
be instrumentally used to further each other. The monitoring of others use of
the commons was to some extent delegated to the Commission both because
regulating budgets is a complex and time-consuming task and because
21
This is also the overall thrust of Jabko (2006) who explores the strategic, and in this sense
political, use of economic ideas about market integration and liberalization.
156
delegation could ensure a more equitable treatment of an unequal member-

ship. Equitable treatment was a concern for good reason because some gov-
ernments had more inuence on establishing a regime of regulating budgets
than others.
The attempt to descalize and thus apparently depoliticize macroeco-
nomic stabilization had parallels in nation states in and outside the EA
(Schelkle and Hassel 2013). The underlying idea was to separate monetary
and scal policy so as to prevent monetization of public debt with its ina-
tionary consequences and reassure nancial markets. But under the inuence
of the hard-currency states and the Bundesbank, the result was an unprece-
dented divorce (Goodhart 1998: 410). This divorce further empowered liber-
alized nancial markets, which were already in the ascendancy (Mgge 2010).
They came to be even more sought after as a supposedly non-inationary
source of government nance (Abdelal 2007: ch.4).
As market actors did not respond to the verdict of the EUs scal surveil-
lance, repeated violations of the Pact undermined the original disciplinarian
rationale. The ECB could pursue a stability-oriented monetary policy even
when the rules were broken. The rationale shifted away from externalities of
interdependence to national decit bias, the myopia supposedly inherent in
democratic processes. But scal surveillance as an instrument to mend such
perception problems of national democracies was politically divisive. It also
served the perception that all instability is scal in origin. It was as if the users
of the commons monitored each other very closely while they invited other
users, namely nancial investors, to come on the meadow. Only with hind-
sight would they realize that these visitors had a devastating effect on large
patches of grass.
157
6
The Euro Area Crisis as a Stress

Test for Monetary Solidarity
There is an abundant literature purporting to identify the root causes of the

Eurozone crisis. The notion of one crisis is convenient shorthand but also a
distorting analytical construct (Jones 2015). As the rst section of this chapter
illustrates, the ve member states in the eye of the storm had distinct and
different reasons why they needed outside support.1 This support was not
only characterized by the extraordinary detail and strictness of the conditions
attached to it but also by its historically unprecedented volume. We need to
explain why this was called for even though countries were distressed for very
different reasons.
The second section turns to explanations, the root causes. The main-
stream diagnosis is that the EA is not an OCA. A second account, based in
comparative political economy, argues that the EA applies one monetary
policy to incompatible growth regimes.2 A common feature of these explan-
ations is that they locate the EA crisis in the difculties that some member
states have in adjusting to shocks and/or operating under the constraints of a
hard-currency area. Through the lens of the political economy of monetary
solidarity, we can see that the crises in ve member states were, with the
exception of Greece, caused by incomplete risk sharing of a common shock.
This common shock was partly the result of monetary-nancial integration
itself; it was not purely exogenous as the term shock strictly speaking implies.3
1
Four countries received support from the EU and the IMF; the Spanish bank restructuring
program was solely nanced by the European Stability Mechanism.
2
A third strong contender, that the EA is an expression of neoliberal hegemony which has put
countries in a straitjacket of scal austerity, has been discussed in Chapter 5. Its explanation of the
crisis also draws attention to incompatible growth regimes.
3
The literature uses this term now somewhat loosely, for instance in Enderlein et al. (2012: paras
345), given that there is hardly ever a truly exogenous shock. Even the infamous oil-price shocks
of the 1970s were a response to the ination and exchange rate instability in advanced economies,
creating more such instability.
The Euro Area Crisis as a Stress Test for Monetary Solidarity
What the countries in crisis have in common is a vicious cycle of (near) failing
banks, a weakening economy, and overburdened scal authorities. Practically
every member state could have been drawn into such a maelstrom but, instead
of fostering solidarity, the selective market reaction and the enormity of the
threat undermined it.
The nal section concludes by reviewing briey the plans for completing
a genuine European monetary union as outlined in the Four and Five
Presidents reports (van Rompuy et al. 2012, Juncker et al. 2015). They are
remarkable for their shift towards a risk-sharing paradigm, yet their vision
also exhibits the aws of the economic literature reviewed in Chapter 3:
overcondence in private (read: nancial market) risk sharing and a supply-
side focus on output instability. Moreover, the economic approach does not
take the political constraints on scal risk sharing seriously. These constraints
point to the adoption of different instruments if risk sharing is to be sustained.
6.1 The Puzzling Crisis and Its Costly Management
This section establishes what needs to be explained. There is rst the empirical
evidence that countries like Greece and Ireland got into difculties for very
different reasons. At the same time there are some resemblances between
country experiences and none can be dismissed as an outlier. Financial assist-
ance to distressed member states took the form of politically divisive condi-
tionality combined with extremely high volumes of credit, in other words a
combination of forms of support that seemed to maximize both its political
and its economic costs.
6.1.1 Multiple Crises in One

We can use the program reports of the European Commission to illustrate just
how different the crises in the ve member states receiving assistance were
and how differently they were perceived by those monitoring the adjustment
effort in these countries.4 Each country section describes rst growth perform-
ance, then public and private domestic debt, and nally the external decit
and debt situation. They are listed in the order in which they received assist-
ance (see Table 6.1).
4
The program reports of all ve countries have been published as Occasional Papers by the
European Commission and are quoted as European Economy [country].
159
GREECE
In the decade before 2010, real GDP per capita in Greece increased on average
twice as much as in the EA and, by 2009, the countrys income was just 10
percent below the average of the currency union (European Economy Greece
2010: 3). This catching up was driven by a strong rise in public and private
consumption as well as residential investment. In particular salaries in the
public sector increased by more than GDP for at least a decade.
Strong growth performance had an ambiguous effect on scal indicators.
The headline gure for the scal decit was continuously above 3 percent but
the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 110 percent in 2000 to 95 percent in
2007only to rise sharply when growth collapsed and decits soared to
double digits. Government debt absorbed 75 percent of all external nancing
that the Greek economy received, notably from Cypriot banks (European
Economy Greece 2010: 6).
The scal problem trumped all others. In particular, it was the cause of
nancial stress for the banking system that was actually well capitalized before
2009. Financial stress came through three channels (European Economy
Greece 2010: 7). First of all, rising yields on government bonds lowered the
value of banks assets, 8 percent of which consisted of claims on government.
This reduced capital and resulted in losses to the extent that bonds were held
in the trading book. Second, the lower asset value also reduced the value of
collateral against which Greek banks could get liquidity from the ECB. This
constraint materialized only during stalled negotiations of bailout programs,
when the ECB excluded Greek banks from its lending, and this created uncer-
tainty in bond markets. And lastly, exposure to sovereign risk crushed con-
dence in all Greek banks, causing withdrawal of foreign institutions and
domestic savers from late 2009 onwards.
Private debt rose throughout the 2000s thanks to low interest rates and
nancial liberalization, but appeared relatively manageable at 120 percent of
GDP by the end of 2011. The EA average was just about 10 percent lower
(European Economy Cyprus 2013: 32). Private debt fueled signicant house
price increases. These imbalances were also a mirror image of extremely high
current-account decits, reaching 14 percent of GDP in 2008. External debt
rose from 45 percent of GDP in 2000 to 100 percent in 2009. The real effective
exchange rate (REER) was 1020 percent overvalued in 2010, depending on
the measure chosen (European Economy Greece 2010: 5).
In sum, a coherent interpretation of the Greek crisis seems to be the follow-
ing: the economy suffered from an oversized and highly indebted public
sector. This exacerbated the competitiveness problems of the private sector.
Financial markets facilitated public proigacy in that both domestic and
foreign banks held substantial amounts of government debt; the markets
also put no constraints on Greeces rapidly accumulating high external debt.
160
IRELAND
The Irish economy grew very strongly from the early 1990s onwards. By the
time the country became a member of the EA, it had a per capita income above
the EU-15 average; relative per capita income peaked in 2006. This growth was
driven by foreign direct investment attracted by low corporate taxes and
light-touch regulation. An indicator of the extent of foreign investment and
the corresponding claims on prots is that Irelands GDP is 20 percent above
gross national income (European Economy Ireland 2011: 8n). One implica-
tion of the presence of foreign investors was that the country shared its risk
through capital markets quite extensively. Growth was accompanied by a rise
in productivity and employment that spilled over from the trade to the non-
trade sector. Continuous economic expansion was also fueled by massive
investment in dwellings, reaching 14 percent of GDP in 2006, compared to
a steady 6 percent in the EA-17 average (European Economy Ireland 2011: 7,
g. 4). By 2007, the construction sector had twice the share in the economys
value added as the EA average.
The scal situation was enviable until autumn 2008. Public debt was below
30 percent of GDP in 20056 and the budget balance in surplus throughout
20007. Given the overheating economy, scal policy was arguably not suf-
ciently counter-cyclical (prudent): the government was warned of this by
the Econ Council in 2000 and 2007. This advice from the EU was not
appreciated by a deant administration, however. Revenues depended more
and more on the housing boom, for instance through stamp duties and an
income tax on holding gains. Property-related revenues rose from 8.4 percent
in 2002 to 18 percent of revenues in 2006 (European Economy Ireland 2011: 15)
and duly collapsed with the housing bust. Although the effect on the budget
balance was counter-cyclical, it moved with the asset boom and bust rather
than the business cycle in output and employment.
But the greatest vulnerability of Irelands stellar performance was banking.
Domestic credit expansion became frenetic: in 20046, household credit rose
by 30 percent p.a. This expansion was highly concentrated in only ve
institutions. Apart from mortgage credit to households, credit was heavily
skewed towards property development and construction (European
Economy Ireland 2011: 9). Credit as a share of GDP rose from around 120
percent in 2002 to over 300 percent in 2009. The funding side was equally
precarious. Only half of all loans were nanced by deposits which made Irish
banks very dependent on wholesale market funding. When markets froze,
Irish banks had to rely on the Eurosystem, nancing the equivalent of over 15
percent of bank liabilities by recourse to the ECB and overnight ELA from the
Irish central bank (European Economy Ireland 2011: 9). Since losses on ELA
are ultimately a national liability, this reinforced the fatal link between the
banking system and sovereign nances. By July 2009, liquidity assistance from
161
the Eurosystem was in the order of 130 billion, well above the volume of
the rst Greek bailout program and amounting to 77 percent of Irelands
2009 GDP.
The current-account balance turned increasingly negative after 2004, due to
strong wage growth and a strong euro. The latter was particularly signicant
for Ireland since the country had a high share of trade with the UK and the US
(European Economy Ireland 2011: 8). REER appreciation (based on unit labor
costs) vis--vis the rest of the EA was a mere 15 percent between 2000 and 2008
while appreciation vis--vis thirty-six other industrial countries was 40 per-
cent. In terms of macroeconomic stability, this real appreciation and the
cheaper imports it brought were, however, exactly what both Ireland with
its overheating economy and the rest of the world with its savings glut needed.
In sum, Ireland is a case of an enormous boom-bust cycle that ended a very
long stretch of uninterrupted expansion. The expansion turned one of the
poorest countries in Europe into one of the richest. It had started before the
introduction of the euro. Currency unication, with its further reassurance of
diminished exchange rate instability that lowered risk premia, gave additional
momentum to an already overheating economy. With hindsight, it is clear
that scal policy was insufciently restrictive. The government had a vested
interest in the housing boom as it lled its coffers (and the pockets of corrupt
government ofcials). It kept tax incentives for homeownership in place
despite the manifest overexpansion of mortgage lending and house building.
PORTUGAL
Among the ve EA members that needed external nancial support, Portugal
is the only country that stagnated throughout the decade before the crisis.
Real income growth was around 1 percent per annum, about half the EA
average. The economy maintained fairly high employment rates but at the
cost of weak productivity growth. Potential output was on a downward path
from the late 1990s onwards (European Economy Portugal 2011: 5). Wage
growth had outstripped increases in labor productivity during the 1990s, in a
boom anticipating accession to the EA. Portugals difcult decade was predict-
able in that it was the only EU country that was to lose from Eastern enlarge-
ment: labor-intensive industries left it for the still cheaper production sites of
the transition economies further east.
The government tried to soften the blow with an expansionary stance:
Portugal was the rst country to breach the SGP and it ran underlying decits
above the 3 percent threshold throughout the period before its crisis, partly
covered by one-off decit-reducing measures (European Economy Portugal
2011: 9). But since government debt started from a very low level, it stayed
below the 60 percent ratio. Portugals government debt was susceptible to
162
contagion, however, since it was held largely by foreign investors, up to 75

percent in mid-2009.
The banking system did not have immediate problems because it ran a
rather traditional business model, hence it was not exposed to toxic assets
(European Economy Portugal 2011: 89). Nor was there a property bust. But
the loandeposit ratio of the national banking system was 1.6 and this became
a critical vulnerability, after market funding froze and loans had to be re-
nanced. Banks had extended a lot of credit to the private sector. Debt stood at
250 percent of GDP by 2009, almost equally shared between households and
non-nancial rms.
Rising private and public debt was the mirror image of sustained current-
account decits; much debt was owed externally (European Economy
Portugal 2011: 68). Portugal continuously registered between 6.5 and 10.5
percent net external borrowing between 2000 and 2008; external debt stood at
110 percent by 2010. Over 40 percent of foreign liabilities were in the form of
deposits, a highly liquid form of debt which could easily be withdrawn. Easy
external nance masked the structural problems of the economy: an export
industry specialized in slow-growing sectors and catering to slow-growing EA
markets, and a high-cost base due to a high share of uncompetitive state-
owned enterprises.
To sum up, Portugal was a case of a somewhat backward economy which did
not manage to upgrade when footloose industries left. It was not forced to
adjust vigorously because plentiful nance was available for the ensuing
imbalances. This does not mean that the government did not try to reform
Portugals labor markets and the welfare systemit did (Zartaloudis 2014). But
it could not muster the political resolve for the big changes needed, especially
in education where Portugal has been near the bottom of the league in the
OECD world for a long time. Pressure for structural reforms was trumped by
accommodating macroeconomic conditions.
SPAIN
Between 1997 and 2007, the Spanish economy experienced strong growth
that translated into annual employment expansion of almost 4 percent
(European Economy Spain 2012: 9). The unemployment rate more than
halved to slightly over 8 percent in 2007. This was all the more impressive as
the Spanish labor market absorbed a large cohort of baby boomers, rising
female employment, and very high immigration, with the share of immi-
grants in the population rising from 2 percent in 1999 to 10 percent in
2007. Jobs were created in the wider economy, not only in construction and
real-estate activities.
Similarly to Ireland, the growth model was rich in taxes because of the
housing boom. From the early 2000s, the budget was balanced and went into
163
surplus until 2007. Successive governments kept on spending on tax incen-

tives for homeownership, as in Ireland. When the housing market collapsed,
dragging the economy into a deep recession, decits and debt exploded.
The driving force behind both the boom and its bias towards housing was
the nancial system. As long ago as 1995, the share of credit that went to
housing and construction stood at almost 40 percent of all credit; by 2007,
this had risen to 65 percent. During that time, credit for real-estate activity was
rising at an annual rate of over 20 percent per annum, while consumer credit
rose by 12 percent per annum. (European Economy Spain 2012: 9). The
Spanish central bank was well aware of the unsustainability of this situation
and imposed macroprudential policies on banks to rein them in (Alberola
et al. 2011). But since foreign banks were ready to step into the breach and
the measures were not popular with aspiring homeowners, the government
urged the Banco de Espaa to reduce these controls in the mid-2000s. There
was also a deep division between internationally competitive, relatively
sound, and well-regulated national banks on one hand, and regional savings
banks prone to corruption, nepotism, and sheer incompetence on the other
(European Economy Spain 2012: 17).
The current account was deep in decit. Large capital inows went more
into investment than consumption, but investment consisted largely of con-
struction and property dealing. Their expansionary effect drove up wages by
an average of over 3 percent per annum. Labor productivity hardly increased
(on average 0.4 percent) which is hardly surprising given the high employ-
ment growth. This meant that there was a sizeable real appreciation that drove
the current account ever deeper into the red. In 2011, the year before Spain
asked for a nancial-sector assistance program, external debt stood at 165
percent of GDP.
In sum, Spain is a similar case to Ireland, in that the expansion of credit
since the mid-1990s fueled a housing bubble both in asset markets and in the
material economy. From this followed a benign yet fragile scal situation,
impressive, if uneven, employment growth, a measurable rise in living stand-
ards, but also overvaluation of the real exchange rate. The big difference with
Ireland was a much more severe external imbalance.
CYPRUS
A member of the EU since 2004 and of the EA since 2007, Cyprus experienced
strong real GDP growth of 3 percent per annum between 2000 and 2009. The
economy operated at full employment, with low ination despite consider-
able wage increases which resulted in rising real per capita income. The
country had developed a diversied and export-oriented services sector.
High immigration helped to sustain this growth pattern.
164
Unsurprisingly, the scal situation was enviable. Public debt stood at 58

percent of GDP before the countrys crisis in 201112. The budget balance had
a turnaround, from 7 percent of GDP in 2003 to +3 percent in 2007. A small
public sector employed extremely well-paid civil servants compared to the rest
of the EU (European Economy Cyprus 2013: 27). The tax regime was very
business-friendly and the country operated as a tax haven, indicated by a
negative external income balance (European Economy Cyprus 2013: 19).
And yet, by mid-2011, the government was unable to issue public debt at
sustainable interest rates. Before it nally requested EU support in June 2012,
the government tried to attract deposits from abroad, not least from well-off
Russians with more or less reputable income sources. This attempt to organize
inward capital ows on top of tax competition did little to make other mem-
ber states sympathize with the plight of Cyprus.
Private debt was the highest in the EA, on a par with Ireland, and had
reached 310 percent of GDP in 2011 (European Economy Cyprus 2013: 23,
32). Loans to the tune of 150 percent of GDP were directly related to housing,
feeding an unsustainable boom. This exceedingly high domestic credit was
fueled by foreign deposits which stood at more than 100 percent of GDP in
2008 and 2009. The size of the banking sector doubled between 2005 and
2009; its assets amounted to more than 800 percent of GDP in 2009 and
still over 700 percent in 2012 (European Economy Cyprus 2013: 12). There
was also high credit exposure to other banks which rendered the Cypriot
nancial system vulnerable to contagion. Bank regulation made investment
in euro-denominated bonds attractive: thus Cypriot banks kept on investing
heavily in Greek sovereign bonds when banks from other countries were
shunning them.
The current account registered a high and rising decit, which peaked at
15.6 percent of GDP in 2008. A persistently higher rise in wage costs than the
EA average led to appreciation of the real exchange rate with trading partners
over time. This was not only a source of vulnerability for the nancial sector
but also for the real economy.
In sum, Cyprus looked like a small highly successful economy. But nancial
exuberance turned this success into vulnerability and ultimately downfall.
The rise in private debt and the housing boom invited disaster. Again, all the
symptoms were present that characterized the cases of Ireland and Spain. The
scal situation was stable although, with the benet of hindsight, it is also
clear that a more restrictive stance was called for. An enviable employment
situation drew in high immigration, and the external imbalance deteriorated,
mainly due to strong demand for imports, not weak export performance.
But the Cypriot crisis is also more than just a variation on the Irish and
Spanish difculties with private debt. The eventual trigger for crisis was
Greeces sovereign default in 2011. The Cypriot banking system, spurred on
165
by government regulation, had betted on a generous second bailout for

Greece, buying Greek debt at a discounted price in the hope that it would
rise after the second program. Instead, private holders were forced to write
down debt to relieve the Greek government from part of its debt burden. The
default of Greek bonds wiped out almost half of the Tier 1 capital of Cypriot
banks within six months (European Economy Cyprus 2013: 14). It became
clear that government nances would be overstretched by the unfolding
banking crisis. This nexus between a foreign sovereign and domestic banks
can explain why Greece was not allowed to default much earlier, in 2010. This
was a point of contention between the EU and the IMF (Bastasin 2012:
14952). The Cypriot banks bet also bolstered those in major guarantor
countries who saw moral hazard problems arising from the troika programs.
This in turn prepared the ground for unrelenting conditionality and insistence
on bailing in, which extended to ordinary savers in Cyprus. In the rst
version of the program proposed by the Cypriot government to the troika
and readily accepted by it, even insured depositors would have made losses.
This was actually illegal under the EU Directive on deposit guarantees; the
plan was later corrected but it remains a mystery why it had ever been adopted
(Buiter et al. 2013: 67).
We can thus summarize: three out of ve crises were private debt crises (in
Cyprus, Ireland, and Spain) as in most countries outside the EA; there was a
public debt crisis in Greece, and Portugal is a borderline case in which dein-
dustrialization made the government compensate for the disappearance of
jobs and low demand, resulting in a huge twin decit (current account and
public budget). The diversity of experiences in the countries that were in the
eye of the storm, and the differences in political economies that underlie that
diversity, presents a challenge for all explanations of the EA crisis. It is equally
challenging to explain the form that crisis management took, as the next
section indicates.
6.1.2 Unprecedented Assistance in an Unprecedented Crisis

Just as the EA showed signs of recovery in late 2009, the Greek government
spooked markets and fellow governments in the Council with a sharp down-
ward revision of its budget data. It was not the rst time that this had
happened when a new Greek administration came into ofce. But this time,
the incoming Papandreou government received a robust rebuke by the Coun-
cil of Economic and Finance Ministers (the Econ Council), which ordered a
thorough investigation by Eurostat. This was duly delivered early in January
2010 (European Commission 2010).
This reaction and an unfortunate coincidence added to the market panic.
Standard & Poors had downgraded Greek bonds in light of the revised
166
budgetary gures and, in an unrelated development, ECB President Trichet

gave an interview in which he announced the phasing out of qualitative
easing in light of improving economic data. As explained in Section 5.2.2,
ECB collateral policies were highly inuential on market actors preferences
for holding EA sovereign bonds. Banks proceeded to sell Greek bonds because
they anticipated that they could no longer be posted as collateral with the ECB
if standards were tightened. This was compounded by the response of pension
funds and insurers to the Greek downgrade: they sold the bonds because
regulation restricts their holding of risky assets. From then on until mid-
2012, the EA was in a permanent state of battle with nancial market instabil-
ity while negotiating, reluctantly, a Greek bailout program. While the euro
was never attacked, several member states needed nancial assistance on a
vast scale. Others, in particular Italy, came close and were rescued by excep-
tional monetary expansion. At times, this unfolding crisis threatened to break
up the EA amidst social unrest and a decline in living standards rarely seen in
peacetime.
By late 2015, ve EA member states had received bailout funds. With the
exception of Spain, these programs also included IMF credit. EU member
states outside the EA, namely Hungary, Latvia, and Romania, also received
assistance from intergovernmental support mechanisms. Table 6.1 reveals
several remarkable features of emergency lending in the EU, not only in the
EA. The acronyms indicate the complexity of multi-level emergency funding:5
Balance of payments (BoP) assistance for non-EA countries, under the so-
called Medium-Term Financial Assistance Facility, was available before 2008
and followed the logic of IMF programs, with the Council as the deciding
body. It was also used for Hungary, however, where public nances were
the immediate cause of trouble. Subsequent capital ight provided the
cover for both the EU and the IMF to come in and prevent disorderly
devaluation (Mabbett and Schelkle 2015: 51516).
The EFSM (European Financial Stabilization Mechanism) is a 60 billion
fund that the European Commission can raise against the security of its
budget. It was an innovation to give the Commission the right to issue
bonds in capital markets. This facility can mobilize credit very fast and
give time for negotiating the conditionality of other emergency funding.
The EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) was created alongside the
EFSM in May 2010, with a lending capacity of 440 billion. This special
purpose vehicle in Luxembourg was meant to be a temporary emergency
5
The source of this information is the Commission homepage: Financial assistance in EU
member states (URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_nance/assistance_eu_ms/index_en.htm,
(accessed November 14, 2015).
167
fund only. It issued bonds that are guaranteed by the member states
represented in the Econ Council according to their share in the paid-
up capital of the ECB.
The ESM (European Stability Mechanism) replaced the EFSF in October 2010,
coming into effect two years later. It is a fund with its own legal status based
on public law that has a lending capacity of 500 billion. The ESM can buy
government debt from the issuing government (in the so-called primary
market) as well as from bondholders (in the secondary market). It can also
conduct programs designed solely to nance bank recapitalization,
whereas the IMF can only do this as part of a country program. All lending
must come with conditions on institutional reforms attached.
A rst important observation can be drawn from the chronological listing of

countries in Table 6.1. Non-EA countries needed to draw on emergency assist-
ance more than a year before Greece. The economic downturn after September
2008 exposed them very quickly to currency attacks and balance of payments
difculties. Outside support was required despite the fact that these countries
had actually accumulated less severe macroeconomic imbalances than Greece
or Portugal (Mabbett and Schelkle 2015: 51314). The delayed impact of the
nancial crisis on EA members was a mixed blessing, though. Imbalances
accumulated for longer, making adjustment much harder. This raises the
question whether EA member states should have used this grace period better
and adjusted during that time. Quite a few governments in the Council took
that position; the Slovakian government opted out of the rescue for Greece on
these grounds. But international market conditions were exceptionally
adverse for turning around the current-account balance to substitute for
falling domestic demand, especially as all countries were seeking their way
out of weak domestic demand. Moreover, the adjustments in the real econ-
omy were on their way, triggered by a credit crunch that was not causing an
imminent threat of currency crises as in non-EA countries.
The sums involved were staggering, absolutely and compared to normal IMF
programs (Barkbu et al. 2011; Pisani-Ferry et al. 2013). Before the crisis, the
Factsheet on IMF quotas (as of September 24, 2015) explained that borrow-
ing was limited to 200 percent of a members quota annually and 600 percent
cumulatively under the Stand-by and Extended Arrangements Facility. In the
Tequila Crisis of 19945, Mexico initially drew on 300 percent of its quota,
against great resistance from European Executive Directors. When the amount
had to be expanded to an unheard-of 700 percent, IMF President Camdessus
had to threaten to step down if support was not forthcoming (Boughton 2012:
4702, 4767). By contrast, European countries borrowed more than twenty
times their quota (>2000 percent) in the case of Greece and Portugal and more
than ten times as much in all other cases, non-EA countries included. This was
168
Table 6.1. Assistance programs for EA and non-EA countries in the EU, 200815
Country Date of rst program Maximum Specics of the program

amount
Hungary November 2008 20.0 bn Program covered 200910;

(request in October EU BoP assistance 6.5 bn, IMF 12.5 bn, and
2008) World Bank 1 bn
Maturity of debt up to 2016
1st program quitted early by government; request
for 2nd program in November 2011 did not
materialize
Latvia January 2009 7.5 bn Program covered 200912 (only 4.5 bn used);
(request in EU BoP assistance 3.1 bn, IMF 1.7 bn, Nordic
November 2008) countries 1.9 bn, World Bank 0.4 bn, European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Czech
Republic and Poland 0.4 bn
Maturity of debt up to 2025
Romania May 2009 (request 20.0 bn Program covered 200911 (only 5 bn used);
in spring 2009) EU BoP assistance 5 bn, IMF 12.95 bn, World
Bank 1 bn, EIB and European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development 1bn
Maturity of debt beyond 2018
Two more precautionary programs were not
needed
Greece May 2010 (request Three programs: 201011 (planned -2013),
in April 2010) 201214 (extended to June 2015), 201518
110.0 bn First: Bilateral Greek Loan Facility 80 bn (reduced
(-2.7bn) by 2.7 bn due to withdrawal of Slovakia, Ireland,
and Portugal), IMF 30 bn (52.9 bn disbursed);
164.5 bn Second: EFSF 144.7 bn, IMF 19.8 bn (130.9 bn
disbursed), plus default on private-sector bond
holdings 197 bn;
(197 bn) Third: ESM 86 bn
Maturity of debt to be conrmed
86.0 bn Various grant elements introduced in 2012 (no
interest payments in the rst ten years, interest
proceeds from ECB bond buying returned)
Ireland December 2010 85.0 bn Program covered 201013;
(contrived request in EFSM 22.5 bn, EFSF 17.7 bn, UK 3.8 bn,
November 2010) Sweden 0.6 bn, Denmark 0.4 bn; IMF 22.5 bn;
Irish Treasury and pension fund 17.5 bn;
Maturity of debt until 2042
Portugal May 2011 (request 78.0 bn Program covered 201114;
in April 2011) EU/EFSM 26 bn, EFSF 26 bn, IMF 26 bn;
Spain July 2012 Up to Program covered July 2012January 2014;
100.0 bn ESM 41.3 bn used for bank recapitalization
Cyprus AprilMay 2013 10.0 bn Program covered 201316; Up to 9 bn from ESM
(request in June and up to 1 bn from IMF
2012) Maturity of debt up to 2031
Source: Eurostat data for GDP; own compilation as of November 13, 2015, from http://ec.europa.eu/economy_
nance/assistance_eu_ms/intergovernmental_support/index_en.htm
169
legally possible because European countries received IMF credit from non-
concessional facilities, i.e. at market-related interest rates without a pre-set
cap on the amount. Pisani-Ferry et al. (2013: 29) show that European pro-
grams lasted considerably longer and had higher volumes than the average of
all IMF programs.
The EA thus managed, via the IMF, to share the risks of the nancial crisis
with the rest of the world. The rest of the world, with the exception of North
America and Oceania, is much poorer and hence this sharing generated
considerable resentment among emerging powers. However, the seniority of
IMF claims, exceeding those of EU public creditors and guarantors, does
ensure that the rest of the world shares the risk only in the last resort. The
EA could claim that the calamities of their member states threatened not only
the currency union but the international nancial system. This was the
pretext for the IMF to extend its access limits on May 9, 2010: access may
be higher in exceptional circumstances.6
The EU added vast sums to this enormous IMF assistance. In the case of
Hungary and Romania, the EU remained in a junior role, while intergovern-
mental emergency funding took center stage for EA countries and Latvia,
amounting to a multiple of IMF assistance. The overall sums, expressed as a
share of each countrys 2007 GDP at market prices, amounted to:7
19 percent for Hungary, 20 percent for Latvia, and 4 percent for Romania
(in the case of Latvia and Romania only disbursed credit);
115 percent for Greece (the disbursed credit of the rst two programs plus
committed sum of third program for a total of 289.6 billion);
43 percent for Ireland; 44 percent for Portugal; 3.8 percent for Spain (only
the disbursed sum of 41 billion) and 57 percent for Cyprus.
Emergency funding through EU channels was calculated to cover scal

shortfalls, including scal requirements of the banking system (for recapital-
ization), while IMF programs start from the need for capital ows in the
presence of a current-account decit (Pisani-Ferry et al. 2013: 15). Funds
could also be given to nance current scal expenditure, for instance the
arrears in government payments to suppliers that crippled the Greek econ-
omy. However, the bulk of Greek loans went to service nancial debt, not to
tide households or non-nancial rms over their fall in income and demand,
respectively.
6
See IMF website Factsheet: IMF Quotas, http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/quotas.
htm (accessed November 14, 2015).
7
Own calculations based on Eurostat data for national GDP and European Commission data for
program volumes (see source for Table 6.1). See also Pisani-Ferry et al. (2013: 17 and 2930).
170
The amount of international support given in the course of the EA crisis was
unprecedented in the history of multilateral lending. The Greek programs
broke the record for the largest sovereign bailout program ever (Pisani-Ferry
et al. 2013: 39). To put this in perspective, the biggest single bank bailout ever
was also performed around that time. In 2008, the UK government rescued the
Royal Bank of Scotland. By late 2013, this had required cash outlays of 115
billion (138 billion) according to HM Government (2014: para 3.14). This
was more for just one bank than the rst Greek program (only half of it
disbursed) and more than the envelope of 100 billion for the entire Spanish
banking system (only about 40 percent disbursed).
The comparatively cost-effective Spanish bank rescue indicates how risk
pooling through the ECB and the ESM could work (Chislett 2014: 46). First
of all, Spanish banks borrowed cheaply from the ECB and bought high-
yielding sovereign bonds; their value increased massively after 2012. More-
over, the international nancial assistance enabled the government to set up a
bad bank, SAREB, that took over non-performing loans and illiquid real-estate
assets in exchange for government-guaranteed SAREB bonds which the banks
could use as collateral in borrowing from the ECB. Both measures amounted to
nancial engineering through the lender of last resort. The program was
crucial to this extraordinary monetary risk pooling in that it gave the ECB
scal cover in case the recovery of sovereign bonds had not materialized. The
bad bank, SAREB, which had taken the uncertainty off banks balance sheets,
began to sell its bad assets in August 2013. Spain exited its ESM program in
January 2014.
Financial support came with strong strings attached. The programs in which
the EU was the senior partner and the ECB acted as a consultant, forming a
troika with the IMF, involved intrusive structural conditionality. The IMF
had abandoned this form of conditionality in 2002, at least in theory, after a
thorough review in the early 2000s. It had found that the deep institutional
reforms requested in return for credit were not complied with (IMF 2015).
They were seen as externally imposed, tarnishing domestic reformers as sub-
servient to outside imperialist forces. Participation in European rescue pro-
grams apparently made the IMF return to far-reaching and detailed
conditionality. In a widely cited paper, Ltz and Kranke (2010: 11; 2014)
talk of the European rescue of the Washington Consensus. Barkbu et al.
(2011: 1318) and Grifths and Todoulos (2014: 1213) suggest, however,
that ESM and IMF programs are not categorically different, notably because
the IMF does not practice consistently what its earlier review recommended.8
8
Section 7.2.2 comes back to this point.
171
The detail of conditionality is mind-boggling. One can discern a certain

differentiation between the most urgent measures for specic cases: for
instance, in Greece scal consolidation and a comprehensive pension
reform took precedence, in Ireland and Cyprus it was the stabilization and
downsizing of the nancial sector. But the memorandums of understanding
cover everything in every program because, of course, economies in crisis
develop widespread imbalances. Conditions were sometimes highly specic,
such as a 1 cut in the Irish minimum wage and [f]urther [streamlining of]
the Easter allowance to pensioners by limiting the benet to pensioners with a
monthly per household income of at most EUR 500 in Cyprus (European
Economy Ireland 2011: 63; European Economy Cyprus 2013: 80). Neither was
exactly essential for restoring stability in these two countries: indeed, the
minimum wage cut in Ireland was reversed when a new government came to
power with a clear mandate against it. This was politically damaging: condi-
tionality was seen as inicting pain rather than trying to cure the patient.
Conditionality certainly managed to upset voters in the countries receiving
assistance. The stipulations of budget cuts, tax increases, and the removal of
certain protections in a global economic recession were so demanding, caus-
ing real hardship, that the quid-pro-quo of unprecedented multilateral sup-
port was hardly appreciated. One of the more benign expressions of this voter
outrage was the rise of anti-austerity parties like Podemos in Spain, Syriza in
Greece, and the Five Star Movement in Italy. When Syriza came to power and
was then forced to exercise exactly the austerity they campaigned against, it
gave the impression that the EA is no longer a union of formally equal nations
(Bellamy and Weale 2015: 25960, Schimmelfennig 2015: 128). The programs
were seen as a brutal diktat, imposed predominantly by Germany making this
an even more sensitive issue.
The guarantees given to nance the bond issues by the ESM created political
problems in guarantor countries as well. They were grist to the mill of anti-EU
parties on the right, such as the French National Front and the Alternative for
Germany. These parties amalgamate a quest for sovereignty and national
social security with protectionist and xenophobic agendas that question fun-
damental norms of European integration. When Greek governments pro-
posed referenda, rst under Papandreou in 2010 and then under Tsipras in
2015, politicians in guarantor countries were outraged. They had put their
jobs on the line to get assistance through parliaments. Referenda in the
receiving countries could only compound their difculties at home, where
demands for referenda were immediately raised as well. Cooperative (and
right-of-center) governments in Portugal and Spain would have been utterly
embarrassed if the Greek government had got away with its demands; the
Portuguese and Spanish governments were among the ercest opponents of
accommodating the incoming government in spring 2015 (BBC 2015).
172
When Prime Minister Tsipras nally held a referendum in summer 2015, it

had the predictable outcome of a rejection of the program. The Council
ignored the will of the Greek people, in fact setting ofcially harsher condi-
tions to make up for the losses between the initial agreement and the referen-
dum. This was excruciating to watch for anybody with sympathy for the
plight of the Greek people. Yet, it was also hard to see how the majority in
the Council could have done anything but ignore the referendum outcome.
Representative democracy is constitutive for interstate cooperation. No gov-
ernment could commit credibly to an agreement if it were later open to the
vagaries of referenda with their variable participation rates and misinfor-
mation campaigns.
The Greek government requested another debt write-down, which it had
arguably been promised in 2012.9 The Council resisted this, but it eased the
credit conditions and thus the net present value of Greek debt. This was done
by providing long grace periods (on average fteen years) in which little or no
debt service has to be paid, as well as extending the maturities of debt (to an
average of forty years) far beyond the maturities that Greece could ever get in
the nancial markets, and granting a concessionary interest rate (on average
1.2 percent compared to the standard rate of 3.8 percent) (IMF 2016a: 4).
Moreover, the Greek government receives all prots from the Eurosystems
holding of Greek bonds (capital gains and interest) that would normally feed
into the annual surplus of the ECB (Eurogroup 2012: 2; Darvas and Httl
2015). This amounted to an incremental debt write-down equal to an annual
transfer of about 3 percent of Greek GDP.10 But this may still be too little to
stop Greeces adverse debt dynamic (IMF 2016a). The Eurogroup of nance
ministers thus tried to reconcile irreconcilable demands: to calm down the
wrath of domestic opposition, to discipline an impatient Greek government
that had challenged the Council so openly, and to respond to the utter despair
of a member states population.
The other program countries exited nancial assistance as planned:11
Ireland in December 2013, Portugal in June 2014, Spain in January 2014,
and Cyprus in March 2016. They all remain under post-program supervision
until 75 percent of the loans are paid back. All four countries returned to
9
In November 2012, the Eurogroup (2012) stated that Member states will consider further
measures and assistance . . . if necessary, for achieving a further credible and sustainable reduction
of Greek debt-to-GDP ratio, when Greece reaches an annual primary surplus, as envisaged in the
current MoU, conditional on full implementation of all conditions contained in the programme.
The background to this was that the losses from the government debt write-down had to be borne by
private bondholders only. About two-thirds of these bonds were held by Greek banks so that the
losses wiped out their capital. The cost of their recapitalization came out of the troika program and
reduced the effective write-down to only 38 percent (Mabbett and Schelkle 2015: 525).
10
This gure was mentioned by a senior German ofcial in May 2016.
11
Information available from the European Commission website: Financial assistance in EU
member states, <http://ec.europa.eu/economy_nance/assistance_eu_ms/index_en.htm>.
173
government bond markets soon after leaving their programs. But both Spain
and Portugal were back in the spotlight of scal surveillance by May and July
2016, creating a stand-off between Commission and Council that ended with
an exemption from the ne, with the two enforcing bodies switching sides
each time (Eder 2016). Sanctions that push a country in (scal) trouble into
more of the same trouble are unenforceable. It is, in a nutshell, a dilemma of
government responsiveness (Rodrik and Zeckhauser 1988), a particular mani-
festation of the commitment problem of collective action.
For the political economy of monetary solidarity, the crucial point is that
the Council chose a form of assistance that was generous in terms of the
lending volumes but punishing in terms of the strings attached. It seems
obvious that this tried to contain the externalities from national bond markets
eventually while also sending the signal to member states that this should not
be mistaken as a soft stance on future moral hazard. It clearly had adverse
political consequences, in distressed countries and in the guarantor countries,
even where the programs were concluded as agreed. Management of the EA
crisis was thus a very ambiguous statement of European (monetary) solidarity.
6.2 Explaining the Crisis of the Euro Area
In his classic contribution to political economy, Peter Gourevitch (1986)

argues that hard times are also the times when our theories of politics and
policymaking are put to the test. This fruitful proposition is heeded in the
following discussion. The challenge is to provide a coherent interpretation of
why the euro area as a whole was so vulnerable to market panic but also to be
able to make sense of the diversity of crisis experiences of the ve program
countries. Moreover, as noted above, the provision of support that was, by
historical standards, both extremely high and extremely invasive, requires
explanation.
6.2.1 Revenge of the Optimum Currency Area?

The mainstream economic explanation for the crisis of the EA generally and of
these ve countries in particular has recently been formulated by Paul
Krugman (2013), using the original version of OCA theory.12 The explanation
runs as follows: joining a currency with other countries may reduce the
12
Joseph Stiglitz (2016) does not go into the same detail as Krugman (2013) but claims that there
was a consensus among economists which refers to Mundell (1961) (Stiglitz 2016: 15). Stiglitz is
referenced where he supports Krugman; I focus on these two economists because their
contributions are recent and inuential. Moreover, they are two economists whose work I greatly
respect.
174
transaction costs of trading with each other but this also reduces exibility
when a shock hits one of the members but not others. Its not just that a
currency area is limited to a one-size-ts-all monetary policy; even more
important is the loss of a mechanism for adjustment (Krugman 2013: 440;
Stiglitz 2016: 1415). The lost mechanism is the exchange rate. Krugman takes
the example of a housing boom that bursts in some member states. The
tradeable sector then suffers from the hangover of the boom time wages and
needs a devaluation to achieve a quick adjustment. Iceland was apparently so
much luckier than any EA country in this respect, devaluing its wages in one
fell swoop by 25 percent while Spain had to force down wages in individual
wage negotiations.13 This takes time, as the daylight saving argument for
exchange rate adjustment emphasizes (Eichengreen and Wyplosz 1993: 60;
Section 5.1.1). Furthermore, EA countries also do not have enough labor
mobility to prevent unemployment emerging, apparently in contrast to the
United States.
This is Mundells version of OCA theory boldly applied to the EA crisis. It
can be examined, rst, by asking how much wage adjustment there was, and
second whether it had the same consequences in all ve countries.14
It seems that there was considerable real-wage adjustment by EA countries
(Figure 6.1). Ireland is the most extreme case, with a fall in the REER that
exceeds Icelands 25 percent from peak to trough. By contrast, Hungary, a
non-EA country which did devalue, showed considerably more volatility, with
devaluations apparently only having transitory effects on the REER.
Reductions in REERs occurred in the EA despite depressed demand and
extremely low ination, an economic situation that normally does not bode
well for internal devaluation (Shambaugh 2012: 1824). Real-wage adjust-
ment had to be nominal wage adjustment, which was an extraordinarily
painful process. It meant that most of the program countries saw their GDP
stagnate relative to the EU-15 (the EU before enlargement of 2004; Figure 6.2).
They have hardly got back to the income levels prevailing at the beginning of
the currency union, with the exception of Ireland and Spain.
While Krugman is right about the painfulness of the adjustment, it is less
clear that exible exchange rates would have avoided the pain. Compared to
Iceland, the program countries except Greece adjusted more quickly in terms
of GDP and current account: the Icelandic current account became positive for
the rst time in mid-2012, almost four years after the krona crashed in late
2008. By 2015, the loss in Icelandic GDP relative to its pre-crisis high in 2007
13
Krugman (2013) does not mention the capital controls that Iceland maintained for seven
years (Milne and Grant 2015).
14
The question of labor mobility will be taken up in Chapter 8; Krugman (2013: 445) does not
consider it a relevant factor in the EAs problems (quoted below).
175
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
95.00
90.00
85.00
Jan2005
Oct2005
Jul2006
Apr2007
Jan2008
Oct2008
Jul2009
Apr2010
Jan2011
Oct2011
Jul2012
Apr2013
Jan2014
Oct2014
Jul2015
Germany Ireland Greece Spain
Cyprus Portugal Hungary
Figure 6.1. Annual real effective exchange rate vis--vis forty-two countries
Source: AMECO (price and cost competitiveness), consumer price deator-based, 2005=100
139
140
131
120
109
100
81 80
80 75
65 70
58 63 62
58
60
49 52 52
40
20
0
Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Cyprus
1999 2009 2015
Figure 6.2. GDP at current prices per head of population, relative to EU-15 = 100,
19992015
Source: AMECO series HVGDPR
176
was 28 percent, the fall was steeper only in Greece; Iceland is growing again
but so are the other EA countries, except Greece.
The models of Mundell (1961) and McKinnon (1963) perceive the world as
made up of one-product regions, that is each region is so highly specialized
that it coincides with a sector, which is why shocks are so specic that each
needs their own exchange rateunless labor market mobility or real-wage
exibility can substitute for it. Since the exchange rate change needed to
compensate for the bust of the housing and construction sector in Spain
would not be exactly what the tourism industry or car manufacturers need,
Spain should have several sectoral or regional exchange rates.
To avoid this reductio ad absurdum, Peter Kenen advances a competing
[diversication] principle (Mundell and Swoboda 1969: 11113). The ideal
adjustment unit of an OCA consists of a bundle of industries that are suf-
ciently different (Kenen 1969: 4950). If disturbances are truly random, then a
varied production structure provides insurance for the national economy so
that a shock to a few sectors can be compensated for by others. Exchange rate
change is therefore only needed when there is a general shock. Since the
change should be relative to other countries, the shock should be general to
the national economy but not shared by others. If other countries have similar
production structures, exchange rate adjustment will not be effective. A study
by the ECB (2013a: 668), based on an index for 250 industries, nds that EA
members started out with relatively similar and diversied export structures,
and became slightly more similar and more diversied still between 1999 and
2011. This suggests that relative exchange rate adjustment would not serve as
an adjustment mechanism.
However, Krugman (2013: 445) fastens onto another aspect of Kenens
contribution to OCA theory: Kenen has turned out to dominate Mundell:
lack of labor mobility has not played a major role in euros difculties, at least
so far, but lack of scal integration has had an enormous impact. If scal
integration is what matters, an OCA comprises sectors and regions grouped
together under a scal umbrella. The scal unit can reduce adjustment costs:
the EAs failure to reduce adjustment costs through appropriate scal measures
is, for Krugman, its major failing.
But this also means that OCAs are dened by their scal arrangements, and
for Kenen (1969: 458) this had the implication that wider scal risk sharing
could bring more exchange rate stability. Kenen argued that the stabilizing
properties of scal federalisma national market for regionally issued debt
securities and discretionary transfers to depressed regionsrequire xed
exchange rates. A region may have to give up its monetary powers in order
to participate in a major scal system with these benets (Mundell and
Swoboda 1969: 107). The reasons why scal zones should not be larger
than monetary zones are evident from US scal and monetary history
177
(Chapter 4). The central scal authority has to nominate a means of payment
if it is to avoid collecting taxes in devalued currencies, while sub-national
monetary adventurism leads to periodic crises.
More scal integration in the EA would have been desirable in the adjust-
ment after 2008 and it is important to understand why scal capacity to
support adjustment was limited. But OCA theory leads the analysis down
the wrong path. In this theory, it must be an asymmetric shock that hit the
ve countries for which they should have had relief from a central budget,
by paying lower taxes and receiving transfers to compensate for their reces-
sions. Krugman (2013: 440) insists: It is idiosyncratic (asymmetric) shocks
that are the problem: A boom or slump everywhere in a currency area poses
no special problems. The reason is that a common monetary policy can
respond to a general shock, but not to specic shocks in individual countries.
So long as the efcacy of monetary policy is insisted on, the OCA account must
interpret the euro crisis as asymmetric rather than general and systemic: What
happened . . . was the mother of all asymmetric shocksa shock that was, in a
bitter irony, caused by the creation of the euro itself (Krugman 2013: 444;
Stiglitz 2016: 1314).
There is nothing in OCA theory, given its xation on external shocks and
lack of a nancial sector, that would have prepared policymakers for shocks
developing as a consequence of monetary integration. Housing booms and
busts were decidedly not on the radar screen. It is an understatement to say
that traditional optimum currency area theory paid little attention to bank-
ing issues (Krugman 2013: 445). The theory paid no attention whatsoever to
banking and included capital only as a factor of production, not as a stock of
wealth. Even endogenous OCA theory, often considered to be its most
advanced form,15 was only about trade in goods and services, without any
asset markets. There is no space for the role of a national versus a regional
banking system or the negative feedback loop between banks and government
balance sheets.
To conclude: it is not clear how listening to those economists who knew all
along that the euro area is not an OCA (Krugman 2013: 39) would have helped
the protagonists of the common currency or the countries most affected by
the crisis. The theory grasps at best the experience of Portugal, facing a longer-
term structural shock caused by the entry into global markets of new low labor
cost producers. One could even argue that EA crisis management was too
impressed by OCA theory, leading to policy mistakes before and in the crisis.
15
This is because it addressed the Lucas critique that expectations of actors in a model adjust to
policy changes, so key parameters may become variables. Trade direction, wage bargains, and price
setting are prime candidates for such endogeneity of economic behavior to the drastic change of
currency unication.
178
According to Mundell (1961) and McKinnon (1963), the burden of adjust-

ment in a currency area where labor is relatively immobile must fall on labor
costs. OCA theory takes the perspective of the member state and how it can
and should adjust, instead of considering how the policies of a group of
countries in a currency area can minimize harm to individual members
(Mundell and Swoboda 1969: 114). The EU pursued an obsessive agenda of
exibilizing labor markets while the real problems built up in nancial mar-
kets (Schelkle and Hassel 2013). Once the crisis hit, pro-cyclical budget
restraint was advocated in order to force labor markets into adjustment.16
The revenge of the Optimum Currency Area has a double meaning that
seems to elude the supporters of the concept: thinking in terms of an
optimum euro area may have been part of the problem rather than the
solution. This is why it is still important to expose the aws of OCA theory
(Schelkle 2013a).
6.2.2 Incompatible Growth Regimes?

The comparative capitalism literature addresses questions which the OCA
interpretation of events does not grapple with: why did member states with
inexible labor markets try to join a monetary union? And why did they not,
after they had joined, become optimal by adapting to the requirements of a
currency union? The economists answer to these questions is politics (Farhi
and Werning 2014: fn 1; Feldstein 2012: 1), usually without much further
comment. Comparative capitalism scholars build a bridge between politics
and economics. They agree that economic considerations would advise
against a currency union between countries with different growth models,
but they also explain the institutions and interests that promoted the union as
well as the conicts that have undermined it.
They explain how both the Northern and Southern countries envisaged
gains from monetary union. Taking the latter rst, the Southern periphery
in Europe wanted to enjoy the benets of low ination, above all low interest
rates and exchange rate stability (Iversen et al. 2016: 10.34). This was sup-
ported by domestic producer coalitions, especially in non-trade sectors. There
was also an economic paradigm shift in favor of monetary stabilization and
supply-side reform that elites in most advanced countries came to accept after
the tumultuous 1970s (Hall 2014a: 1224). However, the institution of a hard
currency does not do away with political-economic forces supporting a
16
Microeconomic exibility is a futile and sometimes even counter-productive response to
macroeconomic instability. Germanys short time work program that generously subsidized rms
hoarding their workforce did just the opposite and successfully stabilized employment (Arpaia
et al. 2010: 35).
179
30.0
Current-account balances as % of GDP
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0

50.0
60.0
Figure 6.3. Current-account balances of the South and the North, 19802015
Southern growth model different from that of the North (Hall 2012: 361). In
brief, the Northern growth model is said to be export-led; the Southern is
deemed domestic demand-led. Unfortunately, the two growth models can-
not live together in one monetary union as the South needs periodic devalu-
ations to compensate for its structurally higher ination or it is doomed to
stagnation. The unhappy marriage of the South to the North will continu-
ously run into the current-account constraint and erupt in debt crises.
Figure 6.3, inspired by the intricate analysis of Johnston and Regan (2016:
g. 1), illustrates the point. The South comprises Greece, Italy, Portugal, and
Spain, plus Ireland; Cyprus is left out for lack of current-account data before
1995. The North comprises Austria, Belgium, France,17 Finland, Germany
(West only until 1990), and the Netherlands. Current-account balances are
taken as a percentage of GDP at market prices and added up unweighted
otherwise the North is completely dominated by Germanys balance. We can
see that until 1998, the current-account balances moved in tandem (were
positively correlated); subsequently they moved apart (were negatively correl-
ated). It looks as if, after currency union, the Northern surpluses directly fed
on the Southern decits, with the competitiveness of the North pushing the
uncompetitive South into debt (Johnston and Regan 2016: 319; Iversen et al.
2016: 10.5). This seems to illustrate perfectly the internal incompatibility of
the export-led and the domestic demand-led models.
17
Excluding France from the North and including it in the South, as Iversen et al. (2016: 10.2)
propose, makes no discernible difference as the French economy had overall a fairly balanced
current account.
180
Southern current-account balances 20.0
10.0
0.0
20.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
19801998: 19982015:
y = 0.9129x 14.634 40.0 y= 1.2777x + 2.9176
R2 = 0.639 R2 = 0.1042
50.0
Northern current-account balances
Figure 6.4. Correlation between Southern and Northern balances, 198098 versus
19982015
Source: AMECO series UBCA, own calculations (unweighted sums of national balances)
Note: Since Johnston and Regan (2016) make a claim about the structural break due to the exchange
rate regime, I take 1998 as the year differentiating the two phases, although the positive correlation
between Northern and Southern balances appears to break down from around 1992.
The regression equations in Figure 6.4 show that the positive and fairly tight
correlation between the balances until 1998 (light quadrants) becomes a
steeply negative but also very loose correlation after 1998 (dark diamonds).18
The aggregate Northern surpluses uctuate around 20 percent of GDP in the
European monetary union while the Southern decits keep on rising sharply
until the crisis in 2008. Johnston and Regan (2016: 31920) argue that before
the xing of exchange rates in 1999, there was a safety valve for the South in
the form of nominal exchange rate devaluation when decits got too large. At
the same time, the ERM provided some spine for ination-averse national
central banks, which to some extent were able to force wage bargains to heed
the external constraint. These two mechanisms were abolished with the
European monetary union.
If the two mechanismsan exchange rate safety valve and ination-averse
central bankshad been effective, then it is indeed unclear why any govern-
ment wanted to get rid of them. But these mechanisms were not effective.
There is little evidence that nominal exchange rates moved so as to balance
current accounts in the 1980s or 1990s. Nor were national central banks able
to pursue exchange rate policies that were right for their domestic conditions:
18
The coefcient preceding x (for Northern balances) gives the sign and strength of the
correlation, the R2 indicates the tightness of t which can be between 0 and 1.
181
they were squeezed between the D-Mark and the US dollar exchange rate
(Section 5.1.1).
In the comparative analysis of growth models, the crucial incompatibility
between the Northern and Southern models arises from the interplay between
wage bargains and central banking (Hall and Franzese 1998; Hanck 2013:
314). In the North, export sectors lead a highly coordinated wage-bargaining
process across the economy, exercising discipline so as to preserve high-value-
added jobs. Tight monetary policy supports this by signaling the need for
restraint to powerful export-sector unions in protable companies; tight scal
policy ensures that the public-sector unions cooperate as well. No such inter-
action and discipline works reliably in the Southern political economies: trade
unions are relatively strong but often with small membership, competing
with each other in the reach and generosity of their bargains to attract more
members, while monetary and scal policy tend to accommodate these bar-
gains for fear of unemployment and strike action. Only crises or the prospect
of extraordinary benets (like euro membership, which provided a carrot for
restraint in the 1990s) can suppress excessive wage bargains, and this suppres-
sion is necessarily temporary (Hanck and Rhodes 2005; Johnston 2012).
The competitiveness hypothesis (Johnston and Regan 2016: 321) that
ows from this institutionalist theory of growth models can be looked at
more directly using data provided by the ECB (2013) on intra-euro area
trade linkages before the crisis (Table 6.2). The trade balance is the more
relevant indicator for competitiveness, rather than the current account overall
which includes cross-border prots and interest payments. The ECB data
breaks down intra- and extra-EA exports for trade in goods and services.19
Among Northern countries, it is noticeable that only Belgium and the Neth-
erlands conform to the hypothesis of Northern growth feeding on Southern
decits in that they have higher surpluses in intra-EA trade than with trading
partners beyond the EA.20 By contrast, Germany had a much higher trade
surplus with the rest of the world outside the EA, while Austria and Finland
actually had intra-EA decits. It is also noticeable that not all Northern coun-
tries have a net creditor position. In the South, the countries with the
highest decits, Greece, Portugal, and Spain, have even higher decits with
trading partners outside the EA, while Ireland operated as an export platform
for its direct investors and ran large trade surpluses with countries inside and
outside the EA (while its current account was in decit at almost 5 percent of
GDP). Almost all had very high external debt, with the exception of Italy.
19
Unfortunately, this data is not publicly available to extend beyond the time frame provided
by the ECB study.
20
The Dutch intra-EA surplus is overstated, however, due to Rotterdams role as the EUs biggest
harbor (ECB 2013c: 61).
182
Table 6.2. External trade balance and debt position, 20068, in

percentage of GDP
Trade balance* Net IIP**
Total Intra-EA End of 2008
Austria 0.2 5.8 16.9

Belgium 3.0 5.2 39.8
Finland 2.9 0.8 9.7
France 2.9 3.2 12.9
Germany 7.4 2.5 25.0
Netherlands 7.0 19.5 4.2
Greece 18.1 8.5 76.9
Ireland 15.4 11.4 75.7
Italy 0.8 0.5 24.1
Portugal 13.6 10.0 96.1
Spain 9.3 3.9 79.3
Note: * three-year average 20068; ** IIP = International Investment Position

Source: ECB, Monthly Bulletin January 2013: 69
On the basis of this evidence, evaluated when imbalances inside the EA had
reached their peak (Figure 6.3), it is doubtful that Northern growth was dir-
ectly dependent on Southern debt. It makes more sense to turn it round:
Southern European countries could nance very high trade decits, which
beneted exporters in the Northern EA but even more those outside the EA
(Wyplosz 2013: 5; 1921). Larger imbalances were an international phenom-
enon. Pontusson and Baccaro (2015: 212, 35) suggest that trade decits can
be caused by wage increases but also by expansions in household credit.
A study by the IMF provides some evidence for this link (Chen et al. 2012: 20).
This alerts us to a few problems in the comparative capitalism story which is,
at rst sight and certainly compared to OCA theory, convincing. There is, rst
of all, the delineation of countries in a Southern periphery and a Northern core.
These homogenous categories do not t Greece and Ireland (and Cyprus):
problems caused by a decline in competitiveness were second order for their
crises. Declaring all countries that needed external assistance to be South is a
post-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc classication. Ireland is not in the South but also
not a complete outlier: it shared a crisis pattern with Cyprus and Spain.
Similarly, France sits awkwardly in between. Johnston and Regan (2016)
include this strong export nation in the North while Iversen et al. (2016) put
it in the South because France lacks the wage-bargaining institutions to support
a hard currency; Halls account (2012, 2014a) leaves France out.
Second, this supply-side interpretation of the crisis has some doubtful
implications. It must assume a fair amount of myopia and/or recklessness on
the part of organized labor in Southern European countries. Carlin (2013) is
explicit on this point: her model explains EA imbalances by the irrationality of
183
wage setters in the South and self-stabilizing (rational) wage-setting institu-

tions in Germany, compounded by the pro-cyclical effect of a uniform interest
rate policy. Furthermore, scholars focus almost exclusively on cost competi-
tiveness as the determinant of external imbalances, while the demand pull
from catch-up growth is neglected (Johnston and Regan 2016: 1720). The
focus on wage costs is somewhat anachronistic: competition between
advanced economies is largely determined by non-price components, such
as branding, quality, and reliability of service (ECB 2003: 68). Hence, even as a
supply-side story, the focus on Northern and Southern wage costs is too
simple. Chen et al. (2012: 12) nd that intra-EA current-account imbalances
were driven by (a) the rise of China, displacing Southern European exports in
third markets; and (b) the integration of Central and Eastern Europe into the
production chain of Germany and other export nations, making the latter
more cost-competitive.
Third, if the diagnosis of the comparative capitalism literature is correct,
Southern trade unions are largely to blame for the crisis and wage adjustment
should be the focus of adjustment programs. The nancial system as an
explanatory variable is conspicuous by its absence in these explanations.
The growth regime literature does not look for national or regime-type differ-
ences in nancial systems along the lines of Zysman (1983) and Hanck et al.
(2007: 215), which would have been a natural starting point. This is just as
well because the contributions in Hardie and Howarth (2013), Hardie et al.
(2013), as well as Grittersov (2014) have put high hurdles in the way of
regime-type explanations. They show, on the one hand, that there is a strong
trend among cross-border banks to market-based banking and, on the other,
no evidence for convergence on a crisis-prone, impatient, liberal nancial
system in Southern Europe that could explain their calamity.
Comparative capitalist accounts often include the so-called Walters critique
of monetary integration, which points out that, with a common nominal
interest rate, countries with high ination will have lower real interest rates,
fueling further expansion and ination (Walters 1988: 5034). In turn, stagnat-
ing economies may have an even harder time to get out of their slump due to
relatively high real interest rates. This critique gives monetary policy a big role
in the crisis story. But the Walters critique applies to any heterogeneous union:
to the UK and the US as well as to the EA (Schelkle 2014b, 2016). It assumes that
there are no other policy instruments to rein in inationary pressures, such as
decentralized taxation. The Padoa-Schioppa group also thought that this
endogenous asymmetry of real interest rates is the most problematic form
of heterogeneity that the EA has to contend with (Enderlein et al. 2012: paras
356). But they also suggest that a self-nancing counter-cyclical fund could
easily deal with this source of instability. Other possibilities are counter-cyclical
property taxes and macroprudential policies at the national level.
184
Analyses in the comparative growth model tradition do not extend their

arguments consistently to the crisis since 2010. For instance, Hall (2012: 362)
argues that it is a classic debt crisis, fueled by increasing nancial speculation
and an overweening faith in lightly regulated markets, much like the crisis
that exploded in the USA in 2008. Similarly, Iversen et al. (2016: 10.16) assert
that the sovereign debt problems arose because of two institutional decien-
cies in the Eurozone . . . namely, the lack of a banking union and the absence
of a credible lender of last resort in government bond markets. In both
statements, inadequate institutions that are not central to either growth
model are invoked to explain the EAs predicament. The diagnoses are spot
on but do not follow from the incompatibility of growth models.
6.2.3 Incompleteness and Reversal of Risk Sharing?

The political economy of monetary solidarity does not seek an explanation for
the EA crisis in one root cause that aficted all ve countries. If one takes
diversity seriously, there may be different vulnerabilities that can push econ-
omies into crisis. The theory would actually lead one to expect a certain
randomness in asymmetric (non-systemic) shocks. From this point of view,
an explanation for a systemic crisis should be found, rst, in hard-to-insure
risks and, second, in a setting for risk sharing that cannot prevent collective
action failure and may even provide incentives for shirking common respon-
sibility. This failure meant that a self-fullling process could run its course,
pushing vulnerable economies into devastating crises.
In contrast to OCA theory, the perspective of monetary solidarity highlights
the fact that the shock causing the EA crisis was not asymmetric and idiosyn-
cratic, but followed the common shock of the nancial crisis. Since this shock
was largely created by monetary-nancial integration between all advanced
economies, albeit particularly intensely in the EA, it created problems for
banks in all advanced economies. Some banks were prone to insolvency
once their dubious assets were properly priced, others were dragged into the
abyss because contagion and re sales of assets led to a crash in asset prices
that were actually priced correctly before the crisis.21 The common shock
wiped out loss-absorbing capital of highly leveraged and sound banks alike.
Central banks came to the rescue by providing liquidity against collateral and
buying assets, to stabilize the prices of these assets and ultimately to prevent a
general meltdown that would have destroyed savings of households. Govern-
ments took a lot of the nancial risks on their books, by becoming share-
holders and by acting as guarantors of bank liabilities.
21
See Brunnermeier et al. (2009: 1324) for a summary of these propagation and amplication
mechanisms.
185
The commonality of the shock was observable in the real economy as well.
Evidence of co-movements in output growth can be found in a research article
for the World Economic Outlook in October 2013:
[T]he recent global nancial crisis . . . stands head and shoulders above the other
events in the sample in terms of inducing strong output comovements. It is
literally off the charts, with an impact on output comovements four times larger
than that of any other event during the past several decades. (IMF 2013: 86)
The other events start with the oil-price shocks of the 1970s and include
Black Friday of the mid-1980s, the ERM crisis in the early 1990s, as well as the
Asian and Russian crises in the late 1990s. Output growth became highly
synchronized, leading to severe recession everywhere and a collapse of inter-
national trade.
Commonality of shocks is a problem for insurance. The costs can only be
shared with future generations. And governments did this, increasing public
debt in a way last seen in the Second World War. They did so in order to bail
out domestic banks and their savers, as well as to stabilize the economy with
scal stimulus packages and automatic stabilizers (Schelkle 2012a). Public debt
was also the counterpart to allowing households and rms to deleverage
(reduce their indebtedness). For this, they have to achieve a surplus of their
earnings over expenditures, for which they need a counterparty that does the
opposite. Deleveraging through current-account surpluses (foreign demand
and debt) is more attractive, but is counterproductive in a global recession.
The common shock in 2008 and its spreading thereafter highlight the
considerable and measurable integration of European nancial markets
(Coeurdacier and Martin 2009; Waysand et al. 2010: 2; ch. 3.2.3). But increased
integration had not been accompanied by the development of a co-extensive
supervisory infrastructure and resolution facilities. Financial integration in
this situation meant interdependence and heightened exposure to risk,
not automatic risk sharing through cross-border asset holdings. As early as
June 2010, BIS (2010: 18) indicated in its Quarterly Review how much EA
banks could lose on their claims against residents of the euro area countries
facing market pressures. At the end of 2009, when the Greek budget data
began to unsettle markets and ofcials, banks in the EA held claims to the tune
of around 1,100 billion, that is 62 percent of all foreign bank claims on
Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain.22 This gure related to claims consoli-
dated on an ultimate risk basis; in other words, if those countries defaulted,
losses would have to be borne by these EA banks. French and German banks
were particularly exposed, holding more than half of the combined exposure
22
BIS (2010: 1819), US $ amounts converted at a historical (interbank) exchange rate of 0.7 $/.
186
(345 billion and 325 billion respectively). Exposure went beyond the EA:
banks headquartered in the UK were the largest creditors of Ireland (160
billion) and held large claims on Spain (98 billion). Last but not least, there
was the real threat of a domino effect among vulnerable economies: for
instance Spanish banks were the largest creditors of Portugal (77 billion).
Against this background, it is understandable that governments were reluc-
tant to let Greece or any other sovereign default, for fear of a second Lehman
moment. Sandbu (2015: 679, 1014, 11618) sees this as the greatest mistake
in the management of the EA crisis: that no debt default, sovereign and private,
was allowed. He sees Denmark as a successful example of a country where banks
were allowed to fail; the country got through the crisis relatively unscathed,
despite very high household debt.23 Another example is Hungary where the
government effectively wrote off household debt by legislating that households
could pay back their mortgages, denominated in foreign exchange, at historical
exchange rates. This meant that the claims of the (foreign) banks were written
down by about 30 percent and other governments bailed out the foreign-owned
banks (Bohle 2014: 9356; Mabbett and Schelkle 2015: 51719). But these were
essentially national solutions, through self-insurance (Denmark) or burden
shifting (Hungary); they could not work for the EA as a whole.
The commonality of the nancial instability became less obvious in the
months after the major hit arising from the difculties of Greece, and this
became a problem for collective action. Market observers came to perceive
some EA members, rightly or wrongly, as more fragile than others. Govern-
ments were in the spotlight because, as Paul De Grauwe (2011) wrote in a
widely cited paper, the ECBs role as lender of last resort to governments was
not assured, by contrast with the backing enjoyed by the British and US
Treasuries from their respective central banks. Bond investors started to dif-
ferentiate between high-risk member states and the rest. Greece was an obvi-
ous target because of the adverse trajectory of its public nances. Yet it is not
clear that this was the reason why Greek bonds were sold off after late 2009. As
argued above, the downgrading of Greek bonds by Standard & Poors, together
with the ECBs announcement that lower standards in collateralized lending
would be phased out, was enough to unsettle the markets. This suggests that
Greece was simply the weakest link that broke rst. The next country in the
line of re was Ireland, in every relevant aspect different from Greece. From
summer 2009 onwards, the Irish government had adopted an ambitious
orthodox program of budget consolidation that was hoped to yield expan-
sionary austerity (Guajardo et al. 2014), only to be attacked in bond markets a
year later because the effects were brutally contractionary.
23
Woll (2014) supports Sandbus favorable assessment of Danish crisis management which was
among the six biggest bank bailout programs she compared.
187
There was a considerable constructed and self-fullling element in this

evolution: member states became high risk, or not, depending on market
sentiment. For instance, it is not obvious why Belgium with a public debt
ratio of 99.5 percent in 2009, up from 87 percent in 2007, was not in the group
of countries attacked in bond markets. Two major cross-border banks, Dexia
and Fortis, had to be bailed out soon after the Lehman default, in difcult
cooperation with French and Dutch authorities (Pisani-Ferry and Sapir 2010:
3545). Belgium is a divided country, and it had a caretaker government for
over 500 days in 201011 that was legally constrained in its actions. Belgiums
net international investment position was quite concentrated on the coun-
tries under pressure: the net claims of its banks on Greece, Ireland, Portugal,
and Spain amounted to 50 percent of Belgian GDP at the end of 2008
(Waysand et al. 2010: table 2a).24 Similarly, Austrian banks and investors
could have become victims of contagious currency attacks on non-EA coun-
tries in Central and Eastern Europe that were widely feared at the time.
Austrias net international investment position included claims against
Visegrad countries, Bulgaria and Romania, to the tune of 30 percent of GDP
(Waysand et al. 2010: table 2a).
This evidence about individual countries is supported by rigorous cross-
national studies. Research has provided evidence that panic and contagion,
not fundamentals like high imbalances, explained why certain governments
had to pay high-risk premia on their new bond issues. For instance, De Grauwe
and Ji (2013) estimated the explanatory power of the current-account balance
and the budget balance, both measured as ratios to GDP, for the level of
government bond spreads. In no specication does the current-account bal-
ance have any signicance. The government balance does, but the best speci-
cation is non-linear, indicating that expectations of a default, a tail event,
play the key role. The authors show that the crisis in 2008 marked a structural
break: having underpriced risks on EA government debt before 2008, nancial
market investors became suddenly oversensitive to these risks. This assess-
ment is based on the observation that non-euro (stand-alone) countries
with similar public debt ratios did not have to pay such risk premia. Only for
Greece did De Grauwe and Ji nd that fundamentals, specically government
nances, could explain the market reaction; for all others, the market reac-
tions had a self-fullling character.
The crucial point for the political economy of monetary solidarity is that
there was nothing deterministic in the turn of a common shock into a handful
24
However, the international investment position is based on location of the immediate lender
and borrower, not consolidated on an ultimate risk basis (for instance when the guarantor of a
credit is in another country, the claim would be on that other country, not on the countries in
distress).
188
of country crises. It was fundamentally underdetermined whether any par-

ticular country would get into deeper troubles and, if so, which one. Greece is
the only possible exception but it would, without the previous common
shock, have been too small to rock the boat. After the most severe crisis in
post-war history, the governments of most member states were vulnerable to
bond market attacks. Even France and Germany would have been vulnerable
if the EU and the IMF had allowed Greece to default early and markets had
taken this as a precedent for further problems, notably in Italy which has the
third-largest government bond issue in the world.25
Given this widespread exposure to extreme market instability and uncer-
tainty, one might have expected resolute collective action to protect the
commons from devastation. Some of this was on display in 20089, with the
G20 setting an agenda for comprehensive nancial reregulation. The EA got
relatively well through the rst phase of the nancial crisis in 20089 (Schelkle
2012b) but was less successful in mustering collective action after 2009. How
come? The answer has three elements.
First, the Greek calamity looked like the very case of scal irresponsibility
that scal surveillance and the no-bailout clause were meant to prevent.
Governments could not simply ignore these institutions; they had insisted
that they were necessary for making the commitment to a hard currency
credible. If there was some belief in these institutions, decision makers must
also have feared that markets would take against the euro if they were lenient
with Greece, a serial sovereign defaulter in its modern history (Reinhart 2010:
53). This fear cannot be entirely dismissed as delusion: the fact that the euro
was never sold off and remained fairly strong throughout the unfolding crisis
vindicates this reading of what markets expected, namely keeping up appear-
ances of rule-based policymaking.
But then followed Ireland and later Spain, neither of which could be por-
trayed as being addicted to scal excess.26 Here the second element came into
play. The panic in bond markets itself obstructed collective action: it lifted the
veil of ignorance and divided the risk pool into countries that were a casualty
and others that were lucky. Government bond spreads rose for some member
states, but not for all. Once the veil lifts, the lucky have an inclination in any
insurance scheme to regard their luck as merit and the unlucky as deserving
their mishap. The revelation of Greeces dismal government statisticsnot
25
In absolute amounts, after the United States and Japan.
26
One could only argue this under the extended denition of scal discipline by Wyplosz (2013:
213) who includes nancial supervision into scal policy: in the absence of monetary nancing of
sovereigns, governments can only be said to be scally disciplined if scal resources can cover bank
bailouts. It seems to me preferable to see his notion of scal indiscipline as a problem of an
interface between public and private nance rather than as a public-nance problem onlythe
latter underestimates the amount of uncertainty surrounding bank bailouts.
189
really news to EU insidershad already nurtured this inclination. The Irish

governments unilateral decision to guarantee all liabilities of Irish banks
shortly after the Lehman collapse could be interpreted as self-inicted harm
which was not covered by the insurance contract. The Portuguese and the
Spanish governments got somewhat more sympathetic responses as they were
honestly struggling to help their households and rms to deleverage. Italy and
Greece got technocratic governments, under Mario Monti and Lukas Papade-
mos respectively, that tried hard to appease bond markets.
But just when most policymakers came round to see the self-fullling
properties of the EA crisis, Cyprus gave new impetus to the conviction that
the root cause was a deep divide between a proigate periphery and a prudent
core. It is hard not to see self-inicted harm in the audacious strategy adopted
by Cypriot banks, betting on a big gain from a second bailout for Greece (Ltz
et al. 2015: 89). This chutzpah was only matched by the hubris of the
government, which attempted to capitalize on Cyprus safe-haven status for
Russian savers and tax evaders. And so the lucky felt vindicated in treating
the unlucky as if it were entirely their fault, albeit some more than others.27
The acronyms GIPS and GIIPS stand for this pernicious rounding up of the
usual suspects.
Beyond these concrete features of the crisis in 201012, a third problem for
collective action lay in the EAs institutional set-up, which made sovereigns in
distress look as if they had failed in their duty to treat budgetary policy as a
matter of common concern. Before recent reforms, only the trespassing of
scal rules could lead to a formal warning by the EU Commission and the
Council, while excessive mortgage credit or an unsustainable current-account
balance could not. Once the crisis hit, the scal accounting rules of Eurostat
ensured maximum scal transparency, in line with internationally agreed
standards, so that the socialization of private debt materialized as liabilities
of government.28 Hence, the crisis in the EA was bound to emerge in govern-
ment bond markets. When it nally made its highly selective appearance, the
apparent root cause of sovereign debt provided the pretext for refusing
collective responsibility. Given how scally stretched all authorities were or
felt, there was little incentive for solidaristic gestures, such as introducing a
joint debt instrument that would prevent countries being picked off by the
bond markets.
27
Differentiation between program countries came to the fore when German nance minister
Schuble was secretly lmed in February 2012, promising his Portuguese counterpart Gaspar that
there was exibility in the conditions for Portugal once rm decisions on the Greek program had
been taken (N-TV 2012). The revelation caused outrage in Germany and Greece.
28
Mabbett and Schelkle (2016a) go through concrete examples of how the scal accounting
rules treat bank-rescue packages and the public sector in a recession.
190
Table 6.3. Cumulative change in public debt over two years before and after program
start (in t)
In percentage of GDP Greece Ireland Portugal Cyprus

t = 2010/2011 t = 2010 t = 2011 t = 2012
1 Public debt-to-GDP ratio in t-2 112.9 44.2 83.1 61.3

2 Change in gross public debt of which: 67.9 93.8 56.4 55.2
2a. Debt-creating ow: primary decit 23.3 39.4 16.8 8.8
2b. Debt dynamic 1: real interest rate 26.0 14.9 14.5 11.7
2c. Debt dynamic 2: real GDP decline 40.9 3.9 7.7 7.7
2d. Exchange rate depreciation 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0
2e. Net privatization proceeds 1.2 2.5 2.8 0.0
2f. Contingent liabilities 8.4 5.8 1.0 0.0
2g. Other (bank recapitalization, PSI 43.1 29.3 2.4 14.1
sweeteners)
2h. Residual, including asset change 72.0 3.3 16.9 12.9
Note: cumulative gures starting two years before (t-2) and ending two years after (t+2) program started (in t);
breakdown for years in the Appendix, including exact sources
Source: IMF (see Appendix); own calculations
Evidence for this explanation of the EA crisis as self-fullling can be found rst
of all in the adverse evolution of public debt that the ve vulnerable member
states experienced, however different their history was. Table 6.3 summarizes
the government debt explosion two years before and two years after the year in
which the respective country took recourse to external assistance, for the four
countries with full-edged country programs.29 Spain had only a nancial-
sector program without nancial IMF involvement. The cumulative gures for
Greece cover six years as the country had two programs; the third in 2015 is
outside the time horizon. All gures are actual, not forecast.
The rst point to note is that Ireland has the most adverse evolution of debt,
adding almost 94 percent to its low starting level of 44 percent in 2008 in just
ve years. The effects of its insolvent banks appear in the primary decit
(covering losses) and contingent liabilities (providing guarantees, etc.), as
well as in the specic item of bank recapitalization, which refers to the
acquisition of equity. These items make up at least two-thirds of Irelands
debt accumulation. The other big item is the real interest cost of its debt,
adding a whopping 15 percent over ve years: negative ination, triggered by
cuts in wages and salaries, increases the cost of debt enormously.
Greece is a striking example of self-defeating austerity as negative GDP
growth (in row 2c of Table 6.3) added almost 41 percent to the debt ratio.
Interest costs also added more to the debt dynamic than the primary budget
decit (rows 2b and 2a, respectively). The country would be showing the most
negative development from an already high level if it had not had debt relief
29
The breakdown by years can be found in the Appendix to this chapter.
191
in the second bailout program. This is noted in the last row as asset change
(reducing debt, hence negative). Yet, the gross gure of -78 percent of GDP in
2012 (see Appendix) is misleading. The write-down of government bonds
in 2012 was directly responsible for the insolvency of several Greek banks
that had to be recapitalized subsequently; this, together with the sweeteners
for private-sector involvement (PSI),30 reduced net debt relief by 39 percent,
effectively halving it compared with what the IMF deemed necessary (Mabbett
and Schelkle 2015: 5245). But the most striking feature of Greeces debt
situation is just how much the dynamic of interest cost and a severe recession
fueled debt accumulation (rows 2b and 2c in Table 6.3). These uncontrollable
drivers of debt completely outweigh the primary decit (decit net of interest
payments) for which the government can be held accountable.31
The same holds for the other two countries, Portugal and Cyprus: the own
dynamic of debt (rows 2b and 2c in Table 6.3) in a slump added at least two-
fths of the total change. In no country could extraordinary measures like
privatization proceeds contribute much to debt reduction; a deep recession
and the pressure to sell put downward pressure on prices and make a bounty of
revenue unlikely. But the programs had projected unrealistically high rev-
enues in order to make the numbers add up (IEO 2016: para 64), presumably
in anticipation that the European Council and/or the Board of Governors of
the IMF would not pass them otherwise.
Finally, there is an item that is conspicuous for its irrelevance, namely the
debt-creating effect of exchange rate depreciation (row 2d in Table 6.3). Stand-
alone countries in crisis typically experience a collapse of their exchange rate
and, to the extent that the government has foreign currency-denominated
debt, this debt will rise due to the devaluation, often quite considerably. Only
Greece and Portugal noted some minor effects, depending on whether the
euro was strong (reducing non-euro denominated debt) or weak. The effects
were minor because even non-EA foreigners held public debt largely denom-
inated in euros. This is an effect of monetary solidarity that was anticipated
when governments applied for membership back in the 1990s. The Economic
and Financial Committee formed a sub-group to integrate the markets for
euro-denominated government bonds (Giovannini Group 2000: para 1.2).
This is easily forgotten because violent exchange rate movements, as shown
by Engel (2001) for example, are no longer a problem for those inside the EA.
It is also ignored by commentators who highlight the loss of central bank
backing suffered by EA member states. For instance, De Grauwe (2011)
30
The term PSI sweetener is ofcial IMF language. It concerns compensation for private creditors
to make them agree to a debt write-down, effectively reducing the net amount of debt relief.
31
Gourinchas et al. (2016: 1829) document just how exceptionally deep the Greek crisis was, in
historical comparison and in comparison with other country groupings (for instance, strict
exchange rate peggers).
192
emphasizes the value of having a central bank that can act as a lender of last
resort to the government. This is the basis of his explanation of why Spain,
with better scal indicators, is so much more fragile than the UK. This is true if
one assumes that, outside the EA, Spains debt would all have been denomin-
ated in domestic currency and the Spanish central bank could simply print the
money that sellers of Spanish (government) bonds wanted. It is unlikely that
these conditions would have held. Spanish government debt managers might
well have been drawn into issuing foreign currency-denominated debt in
order to take advantage of lower interest rates, while foreign creditors might
well have wanted to get their capital out of Spain. If so, the Spanish govern-
ment would be equally fragile outside the EA as in it, having to ask for foreign
exchange at the IMF or the ECB. This was the case for Hungary and Latvia,
although it was the foreign exchange denomination of private rather than
public debt which made them fragile (Mabbett and Schelkle 2015).
The upshot of Table 6.3 is that market mechanismsrising interest rate
costs and a depressed economymake crisis countries look as if they did not
tighten their belts but added more debt instead. Ofcials in the Commission
and the IMF, the much maligned technocrats, know that scal effort does
not readily translate into scal outcomes (Larch et al. 2010; Spiegel 2014)
although they may have underestimated it. The Independent Evaluation
Ofce of the IMF criticized the Fund for missing the highly adverse effects of
austerity on growth and the ensuing debt dynamic (IEO 2016: paras 658).
The wider public, the media, and other governments may be even less clear
about this. Moreover, EU scal surveillance does little to dispel the suspicion
that rising debt is always a sign of governments not trying hard enough
(Mabbett and Schelkle 2016a: 1316). This played into the hands of those
for whom it was more convenient to let these countries fend for themselves.
Misperception, systematically created by the institutions of limited cooper-
ation, can thus prevent collective action.
What the ve countries have in common is that they were drawn into what
are now ofcially called bank-sovereign negative feedback loops . . . at the
heart of the crisis (Juncker et al. 2015: 11). The underlying diagnosis is shared
by many,32 even by those who see divergent growth regimes to be the cause
for divergence and crisis in the EA (Iversen et al. 2016: 10.17). The fatal nexus
can start anywhere. Banking crises were arguably the starting point in three
out of the ve countries. This resonates with a study of all developed country
crises between 1970 and 2010 by Babeck et al. (2012): they nd that currency
(for the EA read: current-account) crises and sovereign debt crises tend to
32
The literature on the diabolic or doom loop has exploded since 2010. For inuential accounts
and/or inuential voices see the contributors to the collection by Beck (2012), De Grauwe (2011),
and for the US discussion Shambaugh (2012) who added a growth crisis to the loop.
193
Portugal Ireland
Private
Recession financial Spain
deepens assets lose
value
Greece 1 Greece 2 Cyprus

Liquidity and
Risk premia on
solvency
government bonds
problems of
and interest rates rise
banks emerge
Monetary and
fiscal authorities
support banks
and the economy
Figure 6.5. Location of program countries in the feedback loop between private and
public nances
follow banking crises but not vice versa. Figure 6.5 shows how we can account
for the diversity of the countries in terms of the bank-sovereign feedback loop;
countries are located where they had their greatest vulnerability at the point
when they needed a program (two for Greece).
As Chapter 4 explained for the US, the negative feedback loop can arise
whenever a state scal authority has to support its banking system and cannot
draw on shared scal resources or central bank support. Paradoxically, it is
exactly this limited risk sharing that forced member states to underwrite truly
massive bailout programs. Pre-committed amounts must be large enough to
deter speculation that the funds could run out. Otherwise, such speculation has
the unfortunate tendency to precipitate a crisis. This is how Charles Kindleber-
ger explained why the IMF could not fully substitute for a central bank that
issues the world currency, which was the role of the Federal Reserve Bank under
the dollar standard agreed at Bretton Woods (Kindleberger 2000: 216). This was
also the insight on which all models of self-fullling currency attacks rested, the
pre-committed amounts in this context being foreign exchange reserves.33 The
33
Krugman (1979) was pioneering in this regard but he never signed up to the second-
generation models of purely self-fullling attacks (Krugman 1996), unlike Flood and Marion
(1996) and Obstfeld (1996).
194
deliberations about the size of the rst emergency funds indicate that decision
makers understood the need for large funds that signaled to speculators suf-
cient ring power on the other side. There was soon a discussion about
leveraging the government-guaranteed funds and two nancial instruments
were created (EFSF 2013: paras E2, E3). This is particularly relevant when a
sovereign re-enters the bond market and needs a back-up in case some market
instability occurs and the price of its bonds falls sharply.
Lending programs not only enable a government to nance its activities
without entering the bond market; they also act as a rewall for the govern-
ments not (yet) in distress. This means that a loan, while made to one
country, can be seen as addressing a matter of common concern. This was
explicitly emphasized in the European Council conclusions announcing the
creation of the ESM. The Council rejected continued reliance on Article 122
(2) TFEU, the provision that was used initially to help countries out of
difculties beyond the Member States control (European Council 2011:
para 4). The permanent stability fund, by contrast, is to be activated if
indispensable to safeguard the stability of the euro area as a whole
(Article 136 TFEU). This highlighted how programs could help member
states in danger of being next in line, notably Italy and Belgium with their
large government bond issues.
The strict conditionality attached to every program (European Council
2011: para. 3) underlines that the protection is meant to discourage behav-
ior that makes the need for a program more likelybut it also reveals that
the signing governments are aware that their mutual insurance contract
can encourage risk taking. Both the size of the programs and the intrusive-
ness of conditionality extend scal risk sharing. Controversial as they have
been, the programs are less demanding institutionally than full-edged
scal risk sharing, whereby members contribute revenue to a central budget
and have current expenditure paid out of it. The counterpart of such
budgetary mechanisms is that the member has much less sovereignty
over its budget. The troika programs, by contrast, leave the formal sover-
eignty of a member state intact, for instance by asking it to initiate the
negotiations and by putting the eventual Memorandum of Understanding
to a parliamentary vote.
This discussion has emphasized how incompleteness of risk sharing is the
product of a compromise between recognizing the existence of collective
action problems and fearing the possibility that individual countries will
exploit collective institutions due to moral hazard. Incompleteness is there-
fore not necessarily a design aw that can be xed once it is recognized
(De Grauwe 2013). But some manifestations of incompleteness may be more
destabilizing than others. It required an existential crisis to prove that the pre-
2008 arrangements were untenable. In particular, excluding scal difculties
195
completely from the insurance contract may actually push governments into
scal difculties brought about by bond market panic. Chapter 7 analyzes
how the contract has been rewritten and shows how monetary solidarity has
been extended, albeit reluctantly.
6.3 Monetary Solidarity at Crossroads
The deep dilemma of a heterogeneous union has been repeatedly on display in

the EA crisis since 2010: while diversity provides opportunities for risk shar-
ing, it makes it also hard to mobilize the solidarity necessary to realize these
opportunities (Imbs and Mauro 2007: 40). And it has become so much harder
now. After the veil of ignorance has been lifted, insurance is no longer pos-
sible: ex-post compensation and redistribution are required. The policy frame-
work excluded scal risk sharing and so a distinct EA crisis was bound to
emerge in government bond markets where no safety net was available.
Under the strains of crisis, solidarity disintegrated because it was not deeply
entrenched in EA institutions, allowing markets to force austerity on vulner-
able economies. Crisis management thereby caused risks to be shifted onto
the weakest, rather than sharing those risks. The generosity of the programs
acted as a rewall for the commons, but was not received with great gratitude
in the distressed countries given the level of domestic adjustment requested.
From the perspective of the political economy of monetary solidarity, we
can see that the rewall for the commons was a by-product of the rewall
for the guarantors. Generosity in lending to other sovereigns was based on
self-interest.
The commonality of the initial nancial crisis could have made govern-
ments recognize that they sit in the same boat, increasing the political accept-
ability of establishing joint liability for bailing out an integrated nancial
system. International economic diplomacy in the early years of the nancial
crisis showed some of this insight and a sustained effort of reregulation was its
payoff (Pauly 2009; Vron 2014). But the shock was so massive and uncer-
tainty so frightening that member state governments, mindful of their vul-
nerabilities, regressed towards national ways out. The Irish governments
guarantee of all liabilities of Irish banks on September 30, 2008 was the
crassest example (Woll 2014: ch.7). The decision was taken without consult-
ing other European partners, led to higher rates for deposits in these Irish
banks, and triggered deposit ight from the UK immediately (Acharya and
Mora 2013: 30). Subsequently, bond market investors selected the scal
authorities deemed to be overstretched and promptly they were. But instead
of going against this turning of the tables by the nancial markets they had
196
just rescued, governments became divided.34 Domestic audiences turned

vehemently against more exposure to risks for taxpayers. The macroeconomic
adjustment programs for the worst-hit countries that followed were limited by
punishing measures to deter moral hazard (Whelan 2014a: 18). Critics see
solidarity becoming ever more limited (Hall 2012: 3678), with the entire
burden of adjustment shifted onto Southern Europe (Matthijs and Blyth
2015: 12).
A closer look, in Chapter 7, shows that new interfaces of risk sharing
between monetary and scal authorities have been created, and some limita-
tions made less binding. What contributed to the impression of restriction is
that every innovation stopped short of accepting joint scal liability. The
main mode of response was to identify a responsible national scal authority
and make it shoulder the burden, but this had some destabilizing effects. The
major emergency fund for sovereigns and the resolution fund for banks
have their scal backing from national authorities. A crucial coalition around
Germany is not prepared to complete the union by accepting joint scal liabil-
ity, or only in return for such intrusive scal surveillance that crucial members
like France and Italy backed off. This suggests that the scal incompleteness of
the EA is deliberate: a hard political constraint. But ways around this constraint
have been found, under the exigencies of Monnets curse.
Appendix: Drivers of Debt Accumulation before

and after Troika Programs
In Tables 6.1A6.4A, positive gures increase public debt, negative gures reduce it.
Table 6.1A. Greece, debt sustainability analysis (actual gures)
In percentage of GDP t 2 t 1 t = 2010 t+1 t+2 t+3
Change in gross public debt of which: 5.7 16.8 18.6 22.0 13.1 17.9
a. Debt-creating ow: primary decit 4.8 10.5 4.9 2.4 1.5 0.8
b. Debt dynamic 1: real interest rate 0.3 2.6 4.5 5.7 5.6 7.3
c. Debt dynamic 2: real GDP growth 0.2 3.6 6.7 11.2 12.8 6.4
d. Exchange rate depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
e. Net privatization proceeds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.6
f. Contingent liabilities 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.3 6.4 0.0
g. Other (bank recapitalization, PSI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.1 4.0
sweeteners)
h. Residual, including asset change 0.1 0.3 2.0 1.9 78.4 2.1
Source: IMF 4th Review (p. 65) and 5th Review (p. 65)
34
Stiglitz (2016: 523) suggests that more economic similarity could overcome political
divisiveness. But are France and Germany economically more similar or more diverse than
Germany and the Netherlands?
197
Table 6.2A. Ireland, debt sustainability analysis (actual gures)
In percentage of GDP t 2 t 1 t = 2010 t+1 t+2
Change in gross public debt of which: 19.4 20.9 27.3 12.9 13.3
a. Debt-creating ow: primary decit 6.0 9.7 8.1 10.4 5.2
b. Debt dynamic 1: real interest rate 2.0 3.9 3.4 2.5 3.1
c. Debt dynamic 2: real GDP growth 0.8 3.5 1.7 1.9 0.2
d. Exchange rate depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
e. Net privatization proceeds1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 3.2
f. Contingent liabilities2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.6
g. Other (bank recapitalization) 0.0 6.8 22.5 0.0 0.0
h. Residual, including asset change 10.7 3.0 8.4 2.5 1.5
Notes: 1 in 2011 and 2012: drawdown of deposits;

2
in 2011 and 2012: other including stock-ow adjustments
Source: IMF 7th Review (p. 47) and 12th Review (p. 59)
Table 6.3A. Portugal, debt sustainability analysis (actual gures)
e. Net privatization proceeds 0.0 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.8
f. Contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5
g. Other (bank recapitalization)1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4
Note: 1 in 2011 and 2012: drawdown of deposits

Source: IMF 3rd Review (p. 47) and 11th Review (p. 53)
Table 6.4A. Cyprus, debt sustainability analysis (actual gures)
e. Net privatization proceeds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
f. Contingent liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
g. Other (bank recapitalization) 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6 1.5
Source: IMF 1st Review (p. 45) and 11th Review (p. 35)
198
7
Monetary Solidarity by Default

and by Design
Maurice Obstfeld, a leading scholar of macroeconomic risk sharing, has offered

this perceptive assessment of the EAs monetary and scal constitution: [T]]he
purely macroeconomic defenses in the Maastricht treaty proved to be a Maginot
line (this time built by Germany) that was inevitably circumvented. By 1940,
the nature of ground warfare had changed from what it had been; by 2008, the
nature of nancial markets had changed (Obstfeld 2013: 34). Just as the
Maginot line was the product of an outdated theory of warfare, so the macro-
economic constraints of Maastricht reected the insights of optimal control
theory with its focus on credible commitments to prudent policy rather than
the management of nancial risks. Defense against nancial crises requires
scal risk sharing, both to prevent negative feedback loops emerging at the
national level and to ensure that contagious crises can be prevented by a
resolute lender of last resort. It also requires prudential tools that address the
systemic externalities that arise from the connectedness of nancial rms.
The rst section of this chapter returns to the economic literature on risk
sharing (Chapter 3) to shed light on what has come of the hopes for stability
(low ination) and catch-up growth (low interest rates) that motivated
the adoption of a common currency by a diverse set of member states
(Section 5.1.1). Risk sharing is not necessarily conned to consumption
smoothing but also entails gainful risk taking, above all through economic
specialization and credit-fueled expansion. It is likely that there exists a trade-
off between these two goals of risk sharing: more risk taking should lead to
higher returns, but at the cost of some stability. This raises the real or perceived
issue of moral hazard, that is excessive risk taking, an accusation that has been
leveled at governments that needed a bailout program (Economist 2012).
Whatever the merit of these accusations in specic cases, the section nds
that the stabilizing features of European monetary union prevailed, in line
with the institutional emphasis of the Maastricht policy framework.
The second section takes a closer look at the reforms undertaken in response
to the crisis. Surveillance of scal and macroeconomic imbalances to reduce,
rather than share, risks was fortied rst. Subsequently, some scal capacity
building has taken place which has paved the way for the ECB to act as lender
of last resort to sovereigns, albeit through the back door. Furthermore, another
interface of risk sharing has been developed with the move toward banking
union and an expanded prudential mandate for the ECB. This review shows
that interfaces of risk sharing have become more articulated and more robust.
But the refusal to introduce common scal backstops still indicates that
major guarantor countries are ready to accept market panic (externalities) as
a means of disciplining the governments (and possibly interest groups) in
other member states.
The nal section of this chapter takes stock by analyzing the overall road-
map for reform that two major reports propose (van Rompuy et al. 2012;
Juncker et al. 2015).
7.1 Changing Risk-Return Proles through Integration
States, their governments, and the electorate do not strive only for stability,
but also for expansion of their economic opportunities. Entering a risk pool
offers choices: to reduce volatility and insure against permanent shocks or to
take advantage of additional protection and incur more gainful risks; obvi-
ously a mix of both is also possible. The argument follows the astute observa-
tion of Kenneth Arrow (1971: 137), a founder of modern welfare economics:
the mere trading of risks, taken as given, is only part of the story and in many
respects the less interesting part. The possibility of shifting risks, of insurance
in the broadest sense, permits individuals to engage in risky activities that they
would not otherwise undertake. The literature on risk sharing reviewed in
Chapter 3 stressed the opportunities of consumption and income smoothing
that monetary-nancial integration offers, rather than the gains from risk
taking under the protection of insurance. This was in the tradition of the
theory of OCA with its preoccupation of conventional macroeconomic stabil-
ization. But if risk sharing is economically successful, higher output volatility
and even diverging output growth rates could be associated with smoother
consumption (Kalemli-Ozcan et al. 2001, 2004). The transmission mechan-
isms could be levels and volatility of interest and ination rates. For instance,
lower levels of interest rates spur growth for which higher volatility and
divergence of ination rates may be the price. This is a benign interpretation
of the Walters (1988) effect that consists of a pro-cyclical movement of real
interest rates in diverse monetary union.
200
Monetary Solidarity by Default and by Design
A tradeoff between volatility and growth of output should be observed if

nancial markets reward risk taking. Pioneering work in the area of nance
and (endogenous) growth has been done by Obstfeld (1994) and Acemoglu
and Zilibotti (1997). They suggest that risk sharing through nancial integra-
tion can allow investors to take more risks, in the expectation of higher returns
that generate higher growth in the aggregate. By contrast, scholars who
research trade under uncertainty stress that increased trading of risks through
asset markets which accompanies goods trade can reap efciency gains
(Helpman 1988; Saint-Paul 1992). These gains materialize in higher returns
on capital, which incentivize more investment and better exploitation of
comparative advantage, without necessarily increasing risk. More growth
without more volatility would be the aggregate result. The question therefore
arises whether there is a tradeoff at all.1
Choices that lead to more or less growth and more or less smoothing are not
taken by a single decision maker. They are the result of (inter)actions that
involve political authorities as well as market actors, who are not uniformly
risk averse. Hence, we rst have to assess whether the risk-return proles of
countries actually follow any pattern that resembles a tradeoff for risk-averse
agents: is lower volatility of output or consumption associated with lower
growth, higher volatility with higher growth? Or were there unexploited
gains to be had, so that a country with high volatility could sustain growth
rates but reduce volatility when entering a hard-currency union?
Figures 7.1 and 7.2 give a simple sketch of the risk-return combinations that
members of the Euro area faced before and after joining the currency union.
The pre-integration phase is 197185, spent in search of [exchange rate]
stability, to paraphrase Meier (1987), after the breakdown of the dollar
standard. The integration phase with which it is compared is 19922007,
when a selection of EU countries set off on the rocky road from Maastricht
into the monetary union. The years in betweenrelatively good years for
European economies that saw a revival of ambitions to integrate them more
closelyare left out to separate more clearly between a time without the
prospect of a monetary union and the time in which the prospect material-
ized, through politically enforced convergence and anticipation effects.
The return in Figures 7.1 and 7.2 is operationalized as average output
growth over each time span while risk is captured by the volatility of annual
output growth, measured as the standard deviation. Figure 7.2 gives us a kind
of balance sheet of the change, in other words how the risk-return prole
of each country moved in terms of gains and losses in volatility and growth.
1
Obstfeld (1994: 1311) argues the latter, following Arrows footsteps: risk-taking rms can and
must shift some of those additional risks onto banks or investors.
201
4.50 PT
4.00
Volatility of real output growth
y = 0.589x + 0.5972 y = 0.346x + 0.6155

3.50 GR
R2 = 0.2511 R2 = 0.7188
3.00 SP
BE IT
2.50 IR IR
AT
GE FR FI FI
2.00 NE
1.50 PT SP GR
1.00 GE BE NE
IT FR AT
0.50
0.00
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Real output growth
Figure 7.1. EA-11 risk-return proles of output growth, 197185 and 19922007
Note: Grey squares depict risk-return combinations for 197185, dark diamonds for 19922007
2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

IR 1.00
SW
FI 0.50
0.00
Volatility differentials
GE DK NE
0.50
FR
SP
AT 1.00
IT GR BE UK
US
1.50
PT 2.00
2.50
3.00
Output growth differentials
Figure 7.2. Changes in risk-return proles in output 19922007 compared to

197185 (in %)
Source: own calculations based on OECD data; dark diamonds depict EA-11 countries, light
diamonds non-EA countries in the EU
202
To this latter balance sheet are added four non-Euro countries (Denmark,
Sweden, the UK, and the US) for comparison.
The risk-return proles in Figure 7.1 show a tradeoff for both time spans, in
line with the Obstfeld et al. line of reasoning: higher growth is associated with
higher volatility. The relationship has a closer t in 19922007 (the R2 values
indicate that the regression explains 72 percent of deviations for 19922007
but only 25 percent for 197185). The tradeoff is also less steep in the later
phase, which implies that a given increase in volatility is accompanied by a
higher return, here: a gain in growth. The performance of three countries is
responsible for this shift: Greece and Portugal experienced lower volatility,
while Ireland had higher growth with similar volatility. Figure 7.2 shows that
almost all EA candidates/members ended up in the bottom-left quadrant,
gaining stability at the expense of growth. Nine EA member states traded off
one good (growth) against another (stability). The hope that more stability
could spur growth, at least in the previously more volatile and poorer member
state economies like Portugal and Greece, nds no support in Figure 7.2. Only
one member state is clearly better off: the Netherlands, along with the non-
member UK, enjoyed higher growth performance with more stability. Finland
is in the worst of all possible worlds quadrant, having less growth and less
stability. All three outliers can be explained by exceptionally difcult eco-
nomic episodes: the Netherlands and the UK had had boom-bust cycles in
the previous pre-integration phase, while Finland suffered from the break-up
of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. The US, by contrast, ts best the
interpretation that asset trade can reduce risk without loss in growth, support-
ing the optimistic view that many US economists expressed before the crisis,
namely that there are pure benets to be had from nancial liberalization.
Turning from output to consumption, Figures 7.3 and 7.4 show different risk-
return proles. The rst observation is that the relationship between risk and
return was not a tradeoff in 197185: average consumption growth rates
between 2 percent and 3 percent could go together with standard deviations
(measure of volatility) of less than 2 percent and up to 5 percent; the R2 is very
low. In 19922007, countries line up along a tradeoff. The comparison of the
two periods in Figure 7.4 shows that Ireland and Spain move into the Goldi-
locks quadrant, with improved consumption growth and lower volatility.
Other members gain stability, except Finland, at the cost of growth. The non-
members, included again for benchmarking, are either in the best of all possible
worlds (Denmark, UK, US) or have a free lunch of more growth with no rise in
volatility (Sweden). It is impossible to say whether this is due to a superior
national growth performance generally, more opportunities to benet from
economic integration, or, indeed, more effective scal policy. All we can tenta-
tively say is that different mechanisms seem to have worked in the EA where the
majority paid for consumption smoothing with somewhat lower growth.
203
Volatility of consumption growth 6.00

PT
5.00
IR
4.00
GR y = 0.26x + 2.01
SP AT R2 = 0.016
3.00 NE BE
FI
GEFI IT IR
2.00 y = 0.36x + 0.7
NE PT SP FR
R2 = 0.53
IT GR
1.00
GE AT FR
BE
0.00
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Real consumption growth
Figure 7.3. EA-11 risk-return proles of consumption growth, 197185 and 19922007
Note: Squares depict risk-return combinations for 197185, diamonds for 19922007
2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

1.00
FI
SW 0.50
0.00
IT
Volatility differentials
FR NE
0.50
GE SP IR
US DK
UK 1.00
AT BE
GR 1.50
2.00
2.50
PT
3.00
3.50
Consumption growth differentials
Figure 7.4. Changes in risk-return proles in consumption 19922007 compared to

197185 (in %)
Source: own calculations based on OECD data; grey diamonds depict EA-11 countries, dark
diamonds non-EA countries in the EU
In about half of EA members, the gain in stability tends to be more pro-

nounced for consumption than for output, which is compatible with what
the risk-sharing literature would lead us to expect. The data suggest that Irish
rms took higher risks that were rewarded with additional output growth
(Figure 7.2), while households enjoyed growth and stability in consumption.
Stability in Portugal and Greece came at less cost in consumption than in
204
output. In four countries (Austria, Belgium, France, and Germany), the gain in
smoothing was about the same for households (consumption) and rms
(output) but consumption growth declined more than output growth. Italian
households experienced the same decline in growth as their rms but were not
compensated as much by more stability. With the exception of Finland, all cases
are compatible with greater risk sharing but the comparison with non-euro
countries suggests that nancially well-developed economies like Denmark
and the UK could achieve this without entering the currency area.
The evidence in Figures 7.17.4 suggests, but does not prove, that some-
thing has happened as regards risk sharing in the EA member states. It was
mostly in one direction, namely towards more stability. Only Ireland can be
seen to have a riskier high (output) growth prole with the introduction of the
euro, as theory would predict in addition to the existence of a tradeoff
(Obstfeld 1994; Acemoglu and Zilibotti 1997). Most others gained stability,
in some cases signicantly. Even Germany paid a price in terms of growth
for nominal stabilization as required for membership. But non-EA countries
also gained in stability, apparently at hardly any cost to growth. It is tempting
to see in this relative performance of EA members and non-members an effect
of the Maastricht strategy of contrived convergence. And we may see poetic
justice in the fact that the straitjacket was even noticeable for the country that
had shaped the policy framework in this restrictive way for others.
7.2 Reforms at the Interfaces of Risk Sharing in Response to Crisis
Despite this evidence for more stability, the common potential for nancial
instability materialized after 2008. As already mentioned, this was a huge
challenge in economic and political terms. Economically, a common nancial
crisis limited the options for diversication. Public debt was the option used,
roping future generations into the risk pool. An IMF study found that the wave
of twenty-ve systemic and borderline systemic banking crises that affected
most advanced economies during 200811 had direct scal costs of around
5 percent of GDP. This is relatively low compared to previous crises, affecting
mostly emerging markets. But the increase in public debt of around 20 percent
of GDP was particularly large (Amaglobeli et al. 2015: 10) as governments
and central banks underpinned their inated banking systems.2 The IMF
2
Amaglobeli et al. (2015) also suggest that the use of counter-cyclical scal and monetary
policies and larger automatic stabilizers partly explains the pattern, but these factors cannot
account for the stock-ow discrepancy indicated by the limited role of direct scal costs in
explaining the increase in public debt.
205
authors express concern that this pattern of low direct costs and a large rise in
public debt will make for longer drawn-out recoveries.
Savers were spared losses alongside the owners of banks. But they had to
bear costs in their capacities as current and future taxpayers, while the ensuing
recession passed costs on to rms and their employees, especially in the
countries in the eye of the storm. Living standards dropped; for some back
to where they were at the start of monetary union, as shown in Figure 6.2.
Social unrest and mass migration, high government turnover, and the rise of
anti-establishment parties across Europe indicate that the status quo was not
an option in a union of democratic welfare states.
Reform activism and frantic institution building started as early as late 2008,
with the De Larosire report on nancial regulatory reform.3 This section does
not try to give an exhaustive account of everything that has been done but
Table 7.1 gives an overview. The following sub-sections then hone in on the
particularly relevant innovations for the political economy of monetary soli-
darity: emergency funds and extraordinary monetary policies as nascent inter-
faces between monetary and scal policy, along with banking union and the
expanded prudential mandate for the central bank.
Table 7.1 illustrates that no element of the system of risk sharing was left
untouched. Dawson (2015) contains an informative discussion of the govern-
ance questions raised by these reforms, notably the legal and political
accountability of the new institutions. What is of interest here is that the
initial reex was to strengthen containment of risk sharing to nation states,
yet this containment strategy could not be sustained.
7.2.1 Early Interventions to Contain Fiscal Risk Sharing

Fiscal surveillance to ensure debt sustainability (entry 5 in Table 7.1) was,
predictably, one of the rst areas on which reform efforts concentrated
(Verdun 2015): a muscular package of legislation called the Six Pack was
shadowed by an almost identical set of measures in the Fiscal Compact, based
on bilateral contracts between governments outside the Treaty. This legisla-
tive package to toughen and extend sanctions was embedded in a European
Semester that linked scal surveillance to structural reform oversight and
aligned the EU-level process with scrutiny in national parliaments. For all
this toughening, no government has been ned, by mid-2016, under either
the Six Pack or the Fiscal Compact. Mabbett and Schelkle (2016a) describe this
intense activity as searching under the lamp-post: the EU was institutionally
drawn to the brightly lit domain of scal policy even though overburdened
3
See the long list of legislation in Schimmelfennig (2015: 133; table 7.1), which covers the
period up to April 2014.
206
Table 7.1. Evolving channels and interfaces of risk sharing in the EA
Fiat money 1 ECB with narrow price 2 Automatic and 3 Transmission of monetary
stability mandate discretionary demand policy signals, collateral
+ stabilization at framework
national level +
Expanded mandate to + European Systemic Risk Board
nancial stability and Emergency funds and national macroprudential
wider set of instruments (EFSF, EFSM, ESM) for tools
(macroprudential, Basel sovereign adjustment
III framework) programs and debt
relief
Public nance 4 Monetary back-up 5 Debt sustainability 6 Cost of government debt
Seignorage shared No-bailout clause identical zero risk weighting
within ESCB Stability and Growth of government bonds for
Pact purposes of regulatory capital
Discount policy to + calculations
create integrated Six Pack and +
sovereign bond market Intergovernmental Collective action clauses in
+ Fiscal Compact, government bonds
Lender of last resort for European Semester Single Resolution Mechanism
sovereigns in secondary Macroeconomic as part of banking union
markets (SMP, LTRO, Imbalances Procedure
OMT) European Stability
Monetary stimulus (QE) Mechanism
Private nance 7 Liquidity risk 8 Solvency risk 9 Financial stability
management management Harmonized prudential
No explicit lender of last National deposit regulation (Financial Services
resort role guarantee schemes Action Plan)
Compensation within with minimum +
European System of standards set in EU Banking union with Single
Central Banks Directive Rulebook and Single
+ Supervisory Mechanism in ECB
Extraordinary liquidity +
measures (qualitative Single Resolution
easing, long-term Mechanism, planned
renancing operations) European Deposit
European Systemic Risk Insurance Scheme
Board, macroprudential Bail-in rule
mandate ESM recapitalization
instruments
public nances were merely a symptom of member states troubles. The

Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure does little to counter this impression,
despite its much wider remit. The creation of the ESM is a much more
important change of direction, discussed in Section 7.2.2 on scal capacity
building.
The reforms to scal surveillance fostered the perception that collective
action regarding prudent scal policy had failed, but they did not facilitate
207
the enforcement of the rules. The Commission looked for ways to give
governments leeway to avoid pro-cyclical retrenchment, particularly by
emphasizing structural reforms. But lenient assessments of France, particu-
larly in 2014, led the Baltic states, Finland, and Germany to write a critical
open letter to the Commission (John and Strupczewski 2014). On the other
side, the Italian government under Matteo Renzi became openly deant
(Piccolo 2016), forcing ever more discretionary intervention by the Commis-
sion President to give extensions to scal trespassers. Jean-Claude Juncker
was in turn criticized by the President of the Eurogroup Dijsselbloem
(Euractiv 2016). The Commission has not been consistently supportive of
the Stability Pact although DG Ecn, especially Marco Buti and his various
co-authors, led the intellectual case for these rules at the start of the
European monetary union (Brunila et al. 2001; Buti 2003). But the former
Commission President Prodi called the EUs scal rules stupid for their
rigidity (BBC 2002), even before the two social democratic governments in
France and Germany openly deed them in 2003. The same two countries
played a leading role in launching the more stringent Fiscal Compact under
Conservative administrations in 2011. This uneven support by governments
from the two most inuential countries created enormous political difcul-
ties for the Commission, concerned about its reputation of an independent
guardian of the Treaty. Its increasing reluctance to enforce the Pact is
hardly surprising, even more so after being sidelined in the creation of the
Fiscal Compact.
The Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (still entry 5 of Table 7.1) cor-
rects the focus on scal excess to some extent. The fourteen headline indica-
tors capture private as well as public debt, house prices as well as wage costs,
credit growth, and current-account imbalances. These pertinent indicators
of problems do not come with any additional policy instruments for the
EU Commission and the Council. Thus it cannot compensate for market
responses to countries with twin decits (of budget and current account),
which leave them little room for sequencing adjustment. It also does little to
promote symmetric adjustment of surplus countries. The Procedure could
actually be said to reinforce the bias against decit countries as a quick glance
at the thresholds for warnings reveals. The most striking example is that a
current-account decit of 4 percent is a threshold while a surplus raises
concerns only at 6 percent. Kincaid and Watson (2015: 798) see a deationary
bias in this. They also note the backward-looking nature of the exercise and
the tendency to keep on recommending structural reforms that cannot really
tackle macroeconomic instability. The macro imbalance procedure, while
worthy in its intent, is little more than another reporting requirement for
national administrations as long as it is not linked to coordinated macropru-
dential and scal policies.
208
Reforms to the regulatory treatment of government bonds held by banks

(entry 6 in Table 7.1) have been conned to measures that rope the private
sector into the risk pool. Under the Basel Accords, government bonds of a
certain rating quality can still enjoy zero risk weighting, meaning that banks
do not have to hold capital buffers against them. Ofcials in regulatory bodies
have been quite explicit that they think this is a distortion, and some market
actors from the banking sector support this view (Goves et al. 2016; Lannoo
2015: 92). But sovereigns themselves have sought to avoid any changes that
would make their debt burdens more costly to nance and domestic banking
systems more fragile. Only the Dutch and German governments have pushed
for a change, ofcially since April 2016 (Jenkins 2016). A signicant measure
at this interface of public and private nance was that since 2013 all bond
issues by governments in the EA must have a collective action clause. This
means that, in the case of sovereign debt restructuring, a minority of private
bondholders cannot block the procedure. This ropes private bondholders into
the risk pool so they share the insolvency risk. Its workings have yet to be seen:
some critics fear that collective action clauses make investors sell such bonds
at the slightest rumor of troubles ahead. They may also increase the cost of
debt nance, given that they raise the expected probability that private bond-
holders will have to share the cost of government debt restructuring.4
Despite the limitations of the reforms reviewed so far, it must be acknow-
ledged that they brought forth collective action. They were swift, administra-
tively demanding as regards scal surveillance, and substantively signicant
in the case of collective action clauses for government bonds. It would there-
fore be rather supercial to portray them as evidence for yet more failure to
take action, as many observers in the media and in academia did. An inter-
pretation more consistent with the revealed pattern of reforms is that a trade-
off between solutions to different collective action problems has been struck
in favor of what the guarantor countries wanted. Those supporting and
advancing the German position prefer to reduce the risk of market panic
(externalities) from perceived scal problems; if the risk materializes, however,
it is meant to fall largely on distressed countries and their private creditors.
This is consistent with deterring moral hazard and extracting a large
co-payment if the insurance case arises. The threat of market panic, a classic
externality, is used as a stick to enforce scal discipline, while the entire
ofcial edice of surveillance has so far not been able to undertake enforce-
ment. The one substantive reform in this context, collective action clauses in
sovereign bond issues, means that banks must now share in the risks they
incur. The disciplinarian view managed in these early reforms to portray moral
4
See Bradley and Gulati (2013) for a review of the literature and the empirical evidence.
209
hazard, of private creditors and public debtors, as the collective action prob-
lem that has to be given priority, even though this came at the cost of more
nancial instability.
There was considerable opposition from national administrations, parlia-
ments, and experts to these early reforms.5 The reforms shifted the responsi-
bility for a systemic crisis on parties that were too weak to bear them, as
subsequent events and reforms conrmed. Naturally, the weaker parties
opposed the measures, and they had veto power within the supranational
institutions. But this was evaded with the Fiscal Compact, an intergovern-
mental contract outside the EU TreatyBickerton et al. (2015: 704) see this
Treaty as a prime example for a new intergovernmentalism. The German
government conditioned its participation in the ESM on the stipulation that
those receiving emergency funding had to be signatories of the Compact
(Gros and Alcidi 2014). This was accepted at a European Council meeting in
January 2012 (ESM 2012: A22), and twenty-ve countries signed in March
2012 (the Czech Republic signed in 2014, while the UK and the newcomer
Croatia continued to abstain as of 2016).
By shifting to an intergovernmental venue, the obstacles to agreement
arising from the supranational conventions of equality and consensus were
avoided. The Compact could come into force as soon as twelve member states
signed it; it could not be blocked by hold-outs. Such exibility, here of
membership to an agreement, disempowers smaller member states in favor
of the inuential agenda setters (Martin 2001:13843). However, the more
powerful states did not have it all their own way: for years, the Commission
had abstained from writing its report on signatories transposition of the Fiscal
Compact, which meant that the violations of the balanced-budget rule
enshrined in it cannot be automatically sanctioned as foreseen (Gros and
Alcidi 2014).
7.2.2 Fiscal Capacity Building and Lending of Last Resort to Sovereigns

EMERGENCY FUNDS
The rst signicant expansion of scal capacity was agreed at a dramatic crisis
summit in May 2010, where it was decided to bail out the Greek government
(Barber 2010). Such capacity was demanded by then ECB President Trichet in
return for embarking on the rst bond-buying program, the Securities Market
Programme (SMP, entry 4 in Table 7.1). Through the SMP, the ECB bought
5
The concerns related to the legal uncertainty and political ambiguity, resulting from an
intergovernmental treaty that supposedly empowers supranational institutions like the
Commission and the European Court of Justice to enforce it (Dehousse 2012). There was also the
usual concern that the Compact would force governments to a pro-cyclical policy stance but this
would require enforcement that so far has not taken place.
210
Ireland
Finland Other
2%
2% 3%
Austria Portugal
3% 2%
Greece
3%
Belgium
3% Germany
Netherlands 26%
6%
Spain
13%
France
20%
Italy
17%
Figure 7.5. Share of EA member states in the paid-up capital of the ECB, as of
January 1, 2015
Source: <http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html>, Capital subscription; (rounded)
percentages take the paid-up capital (70 percent of total ECB capital) as basis
government bonds, not least Greek bonds, from banks keen to ofoad them.
The ECB demanded assurance that it could be indemnied if the credit risk
from these bonds materialized; since there was no central budget, emergency
funds were the next best option from the ECBs point of view (entry 2).
Indirect lending to sovereigns, via secondary markets, and emergency funding
were thus directly linked. This linkage brought into the open that govern-
ments were engaged in risk sharing through the credit risks that the ECB was
taking on its books with extraordinary monetary measures since the member
states underwrite the ECBs loss-absorbing capital (Schoenmaker 2010; see
ch.5). By agreeing to this, risk sharing by default became monetary solidarity.
The key for the extent of solidarity potentially required is each member
states share in the ECBs paid-up capital, which is around 70 percent of the
total capital of 10.825 billion; the rest is subscribed by non-euro member
states that do not have to pay up. Each countrys share is determined by its
GDP and its population size, in equal measure. Figure 7.5 shows that France
and Germany together would have to bear 46 percent, almost half, of any
losses. Despite a similar exposure, French governments were more open to
discussions about joint liability while the Merkel administration always ruled
out any form of Eurobonds.6 At the same time, French governments neither
6
The German opposition parties, notably the Social Democrats in 2012, were in favor of joint
liability although subject to acceptance in a referendum (Focus 2012).
211
blocked reforms that were promoted by Germany nor mobilized support to

overcome German taboos. On Eurobonds, President Sarkozy changed his
mind in mid-2011 in favor of the German view while President Hollande
dropped the topic after his rst summit in May 2012 (Reuters 2012).
However, the nancial construction of the rst emergency fund, the tem-
porary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), satised neither borrowers
nor guarantors. A country in distress was singled out under Article 122(2)
TFEU, as a member state with severe difculties caused by . . . exceptional
occurrences beyond its control. Loans could be made, but only under non-
concessionary terms, in this respect aligned with the IMF terms of facilities
that exceed a countrys quota. Germany in particular insisted on commercial
terms for the rst Greek loan while other member states would have been
more conciliatory (Bastasin 2012: 185, 187). These terms ended up being a bad
compromise for both sides: interest rates of about 5 percent were 2 percent
below commercial rates but under the circumstances too high for Greece.
This did little to bolster the distressed countrys creditworthiness and thus
calm down markets.
The guarantor side was not happy with the EFSF either: at Chancellor
Merkels insistence, this was an intergovernmental construct issuing bonds
based on identiable bilateral guarantees (Barber 2010). The Commission had
wanted a fund under EU authority, selling a bond with a collective govern-
ment guarantee. The legal services of the EU backed Chancellor Merkel,
insofar as they suggested that the Commissions proposal required a treaty
change. A Dutch senior ofcial came up with the idea, in the small hours of an
overnight summit, to give the EFSF the legal form of a Special Purpose Vehicle.
This meant it lacked its own legal personality. Eurostat then ruled that the
guarantees provided should be added to the national debt of the guarantors;
the EFSF was treated as holding the claims both against the program country
and against the guarantors (ESM 2012: A23). Especially for vulnerable coun-
tries like Belgium and Italy, this was most unhelpful. The EFSF could not act as
a rewall against contagion if the support provided was treated as a liability of
the guarantors for the purposes of scal surveillance.
Lessons were learnt from this rst botched attempt to create scal capacity
that was actually increasing risks for all parties involved. With the ESM, a more
robust rewall for the commons has been built. The ESM got its own legal
(public law) personality based on public law and is able to borrow in bond
markets on its own account. The guarantees come in the form of callable
capital pledged by the member states, to the tune of 700 billion of which
80 billion has been paid in by member states (according to the usual ECB
capital key). Statistically, this is classied as a stake in the ESM, not a liability,
as is the case for IMF loans (ESM 2012: A23). This capital backing gives the
ESM a lending capacity of 500 billion (ESM 2012: A6); the difference or
212
overcollateralization from 700 billion preserves the ESMs triple-A rating,

given that not all the member states providing the guarantees themselves
have a triple-A rating. Because the ESM is constituted separately to the loans
it makes, it is more difcult for guarantors to opt out of a rescue program, as the
Slovakian government did from the rst Greek rescue program. The ESM also
effectively pools the credit ratings of the guarantors, so that nancing costs stay
low and can be passed on to those receiving assistance. The ESM gives loans,
buys bonds from banks, and can buy bonds from the issuing government
directly (Article 1418 of ESM Treaty). This can be done as a precaution, not
only after contagion has driven up yields to unsustainable levels. The pricing
policy is at the discretion of the ESM Governing Council and, as long as it covers
the ESMs own costs, it can be concessionary (Article 20 of ESM Treaty).
However, ESM assistance is still clunky and cannot be mobilized easily
strict conditionality, laid down in a Memorandum of Understanding, must
always be attached. The ESM programs are part of a more general trend
observable in IMF programs as well. Bailout programs have become larger
with different rounds of nancial crises (Barkbu et al. 2011: 1518). More
intrusive and detailed conditionality can also be observed (Grifths and
Todoulos 2014: 1213) contrary to the IMFs declared intentions. The Fund
may not have much choice if an expanding and integrating world economy
makes it more likely for country crises to bunch, making guarantor countries
in its governing board both nervous and reluctant (Barkbu et al. 2011: 3). But
even so, the number of prior actions, benchmarks, and actual conditions for
credit disbursement that Greece or Portugal were asked to implement still
exceeded the average of IMF programs by a multiple (IEO 2016: para 72).
Last but not least, sovereign debt restructuring as part of these programs
became less frequent and less generous, a phenomenon not only but espe-
cially in Europe (IEO 2016: paras 612). In the case of specic programs, this
may have been the outcome of prioritizing the commons rather than the
welfare of individual member states. This is how the IMF perceives it when
explaining the conicts over debt restructuring in Greece and bank share-
holder bail-in in Ireland:
The overriding concern of the European authorities was to preserve stability, and
especially to preserve the single currency project. In contrast, the IMFs responsi-
bility was also to the individual countries requesting nancial assistance . . . In the
case of the euro area, debt restructuring was an issue where a conict could
arise between what was good for a country and what was good for the euro area
as a whole. (IEO 2016: para 106)
Reluctance to write down debt leaves long legacies of debt, weighing on the
recovery of program countries, a point repeatedly and convincingly made by
Sandbu (2015).
213
The ESM also remains a fund of pre-committed size. A program for Italy
could easily overstretch 500 billion. Chancellor Merkel categorically rejected
a banking license for the ESM that would have made it eligible to draw on ECB
funding if necessary. Her view was supported by ECB President Draghi, while
the French President Hollande, Italian Prime Minister Monti, and the Austrian
central bank governor Nowotny backed a banking license (Reuters 2012;
Telegraph 2012). The German position prevailed; the ESM is therefore more
a multi lateral scal backstop for distressed sovereigns than a common emer-
gency fund.
QUASI-FISCAL MONETARY POLICY

These limitations forced the ECB in turn to provide relief to governments. It
had to do this without going against the prohibition on monetary nancing.
The quid-pro-quo for the rst and relatively small bond-buying program, the
SMP, was the emergency fund, the EFSF. It did not calm markets, especially
after the second bailout program for Greece had forced losses on private
bondholders. The crisis escalated further in 2012. There was a visible strain
between the ECB and scal authorities in the Council. The risk premia in the
Italian government bond market, the third largest after the US and Japan,
started to rise again. This was preceded by the ousting of the Berlusconi
government, to which the ECB openly contributed, which had the intended
reassuring effect on the bond market; it was therefore most alarming that risk
premia went up again under the technocratic government of Mario Monti.7
In this situation, another potential interface between money and public
nances emerged in the guise of OMT. In his now famous speech to a bankers
forum in London, ECB President Draghi deviated from the pre-distributed text
and assured nancial markets that the ECB is ready, [w]ithin our mandate . . .
to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro, adding: And believe me, it will
be enough (Draghi 2012). The ECB President had agreed this announcement
with a small number of heads of state before consulting the governing board
of the ECB.8 With the announcement of this program, the seemingly unstop-
pable panic in bond markets miraculously stopped. The two novel features of
the OMT were, compared to other bond-buying programs, that (i) the
amounts available under OMT are ex ante unlimited and (ii) bonds bought
by the ECB under this program will have no seniority compared to privately
7
In 2011, Trichet and his successor Draghi had jointly signed letters to the Italian and Spanish
prime ministers, which outlined the scal austerity measures they expected these governments to
take in return for buying the countrys bonds. The letter to Berlusconi was leaked, to considerable
embarrassment of the ECB. When the Italian administration did not honor its side of the bargain,
the ECB suspended Italian bond purchases. Alarm in the markets led to Berlusconis replacement
by a technocratic government under Mario Monti (Henning 2016: 1824).
8
Based on condential information given at a Centre for European Reform workshop at
Ditchley Park.
214
held claims in the event of a default (ECB 2012). The OMT assured markets of
the ECBs readiness to act as lender of last resort to sovereigns, although
conned to sovereigns that already have an ESM program. The OMT was an
attempt to make the scally limited ESM funding open-ended if necessary,
and it therefore represents a massive extension of monetary solidarity with the
most distressed countries. This announcement could arguably not have
worked its magic without the deafening silence, signifying tacit consent,
from Berlin, which trumped resistance by the Bundesbank (Steen 2012).
The political risk that Chancellor Merkel had taken with this tacit agree-
ment to the OMT announcement soon became obvious. The ECBs (2012)
press statement on the technicalities of OMT in September 2012 was chal-
lenged in the German constitutional court by ve different groups of plain-
tiffs. They came from across the party-political spectrum; one of these
challenges, by political moderates, had almost 12,000 signatories. They argued
that the OMT program exceeded the mandate of the ECB, which is to ensure
price stability, and that it violated the principle of democracy (Case C-62/14:
para 6). The aim was to establish that such a program had to be subject to a
vote in parliament along with specic authorization by the German govern-
ment. It took the German constitutional court almost four years to reach a
decision, because it referred the case to the European Court of Justice (Case
C-62/14 Gauweiler and others from June 16, 2015). The referral got ten other
member states involved, nine of which (including the Netherlands and
Finland) challenged the admissibility of the proceedings.
In the end, the European Court ruling said that the OMT program was legal,
subject to certain conditions. These conditions include that the technical
implementation must ensure that a member state cannot rely on the ECB
buying its bonds, so a certain time span must have elapsed between the rst
issue of a bond and its buying under OMT. Moreover, the ECB can only buy
bonds of countries which are undergoing a structural adjustment programme
and which have access to the bond market again (Case C-62/14: para. 116)
the intervention is, in other words, conned to reducing excessive spreads and
volatility but not replacing the bond market.9 The European court held, and
the German court reiterated, that the ECB can launch an OMT program only
to ensure price stability, not to safeguard the stability of the euro area as a
wholethis, both courts ruled, is the remit of the ESM (Case C-62/14: para. 64;
Bundesverfassungsgericht 2016: para. 194).
9
As Dolls et al. (2016: 10) put it correctly: Investors today base their investment calculus at euro
area government bond markets on the fact that the ECB is (conditionally) willing to buy crisis
country bonds in the secondary market and that this tends to reduce the size of credit risk spreads
in this market.
215
The German court further ruled that the Bundesbank is only allowed to
participate in an OMT program if its volume is predetermined by the Govern-
ing Council (Bundesverfassungsgericht 2016: paras 199, 206). This is based on
a tenuous reading of the European Courts judgment (C-62/14 paras 106, 113,
116) and goes directly against the ECBs announcement that no ex ante
quantitative limits are set on the size of [OMTs] (ECB 2012). To get around
this, the ECBs Governing Council will have to agree on such a large max-
imum amount that it is sure to exceed the required intervention. Even so, the
ruling provides the Bundesbank with huge leverage on such a program, akin to
an informal veto player position; an OMT without the Bundesbanks partici-
pation is unlikely to calm down markets.
This leaves the ECB with vast lending programs to banks only. These
programs can help banks to recapitalize and thus provide relief to scal
authorities through the monetary back door (Schelkle 2012c). The ECB had
tried this arguably before the announcement of the OMT through its LTRO
under the incoming President Draghi. This lending, to the tune of 990 billion
since December 2011, provided nancial institutions with huge credits at a
xed interest rate of 1 percent for up to three years. If they invested the loan in
higher yielding assets, not least government bonds, they earned a safe margin
out of which they could raise loss-absorbing capital. The responsibility of
overburdened governments for recapitalizing their banking systems was
therefore partly taken over by the central bank (Schelkle 2012c: 30), the risks
marginally underwritten by all EA member states with paid-in capital in the
ECB (Schoenmaker 2010). According to Commission estimates for 200813,
the total amount that governments spent on recapitalization and asset relief
to banks in the EA amounted to 484 billion. On top of that, governments
provided guarantees and other liquidity measures to banks totaling 932
billion (ECB 2015: 889). This amounts to a sum comparable to the 990
billion provided by the ECB under the LTRO. The ECBs own version of what it
did was acting as an intermediary that replaced the money market as the ECB
(2015: 126) itself recognizes: non-distressed countries . . . depositing liquidity
with the Eurosystem, while distressed countries [were] borrowing liquidity
from the Eurosystem. The two accounts are not incompatible, but my
emphasis on recapitalization indicates an interface with scal policy that,
for understandable reasons, the ECB is not keen to highlight. The proud
institution had been forced into such a quasi-scal policy because it was left
alone and reghting by scal authorities in the Council.
These travails illustrate a relevant issue for the theory of interstate cooper-
ation. The ECBs unconventional measure needed political support as it was
not strictly covered by the central banks narrow mandate, as the German
constitutional court explains in considerable detail (Bundesverfassungsgericht
2016: paras 1889). Yet the ECB could not engage in open negotiations with
216
member state governments without conceding from the start that the OMT
exceeds the ECBs mandate. Such negotiations would not have been in the
interest of anybody who wanted to stamp out panic in the bond market
quickly, because the German governments win set was so small that the status
quo would have prevailed. This was a two-level game under the exigencies of
emergency politics (White, J. 2015: 89). Under these conditions, the party
that would have been perversely empowered by domestic opposition did not
want to exercise its strength: the imperative of preserving the EA overrode the
institutional conservatism of the German government. The subsequent chal-
lenges in the courts proved that the parties were correct to anticipate that
collective action would fail in an open two-level game. Emergency politics
proved functionally extremely effective in this case, presumably because it
addressed a market audience (Lohmann 2003: 1012). The OMT calmed
markets that trusted the ECB to prevail ultimately, if only to preserve itself
as an institution; the later court rulings had not much resonance, even though
they constrained OMT.
One of the dilemmas of EA crisis management is that its modus operandi,
emergency politics, may be effective in stopping market panic but it is out of
sync with democratic processes. We see this not only in the mobilization of
opposition in Germany but also in the failure of emergency politics exercised
by technocratic governments in Greece and Italy to achieve popular support
and electoral legitimation. One of the major benets of institutionalized risk
sharing would be that it would give time and a time horizon to opposition,
deliberation, and response in member states (White, J. 2015: 99100).
7.2.3 Banking Union and an Expanded ECB Mandate

Before the crisis, member state authorities were responsible for the prudential
supervision of banks, for the resolution of insolvent banks, and for deposit
insurance schemes.10 They conducted these tasks in accordance with EU
rules and regulations, but without any shared scal resources. Each of these
responsibilities may require scal intervention. When supervisors order a
bank to close, savers may have to be compensated for their lossesin fact,
protection of small depositors is typically the main reason for why govern-
ments across the party-political spectrum come so readily to the rescue of
banks (Brunnermeier et al. 2009: 68). In a systemic crisis, accumulated reso-
lution and deposit insurance funds, typically nanced by industry levies, may
be too small to deal with the fall-out and governments have to make up the
balance, at least in the rst instance.
10
This sub-section covers entries 1, 3, and 79 in Table 7.1.
217
These scal obligations meant that the ECB could not be given much of a
say in supervision. For the independent central bank to be able to order
member states to take scally relevant measures would breach the totemic
separation of monetary and scal policies. An additional constraint for
Europeanizing prudential supervision was that nancial integration is, legally,
a Single Market matter: non-EA members of the EU would not have accepted
supervision from the ECB and a special supervisory body would have had to be
created. It would in turn have to deal with several central banks: the ECB and
the central banks of the non-EA countries.
But keeping supervision, resolution, and deposit insurance as national
responsibilities contributed directly to the fragmentation of banking during
the crisis as well as to the negative feedback loop between banks and sover-
eigns (ECB 2015: 8890). This fragmentation can be seen in the differentiation
of interest rates on new loans to non-nancial rms in peripheral coun-
tries11 compared to non-distressed EA members, as well as shrinking credit
to the distressed economies since 2008 (ECB 2015: charts S32 and S34). Banks
posted much less cross-border collateral in liquidity operations with the ECB
after the crisis, again a tendency driven by distressed countries (ECB 2015:
127). The home bias in banks holdings of government bonds had fallen
before the nancial crisis (see Chapter 5), but, by 2015, it had returned to
the levels of the early 2000s (ECB 2015: 89). The ECB report gives several
reasons for the rising home bias: moral suasion to hold their bonds exer-
cised by governments over banks, and carry trade (borrowing cheaply from
the ECB and investing dearly into high-risk assets), a policy favored by weak
banks to build up their prots and recapitalize. In stronger economies, home
bias has resulted from attempts to hedge against an exit of peripheral coun-
tries. These tendencies all had the effect of concentrating rather than diversi-
fying sovereign risks on banks balance sheets.
The June 2012 European Council decided to introduce a banking union,
amidst dangerously rising risk premia on Italian and Spanish bonds (entry 8 in
Table 7.1; Howarth and Quaglia 2013: 113). The EU had upwardly harmon-
ized nancial regulation before the crisis, completing the so-called Financial
Services Action Plan through a fast-track legislative procedure, known as the
Lamfalussy Process. This allowed it to move very fast on a Single Rulebook,
already proposed in March 2009 in the De Larosire report. It was the rst
element of the banking union.12 Other elements came into force step by step,
notably a Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) in November 2014 and a
Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) by January 2016. A Bank Recovery and
11
The ECB (2015: 88) includes in this category the ve program countries, Italy, and Slovenia.
12
See the Commission website on Banking union at http://ec.europa.eu/nance/general-
policy/banking-union/index_en.htm (accessed December 17, 2015).
218
Resolution Directive requires bank shareholders to be bailed in rst in a bank

rescue, a new instrument that was soon to be tested in Italy. Also, the ESM
added a Direct Recapitalization Instrument to its arsenal in December 2014,
meaning it can acquire loss-absorbing assets in undercapitalized banks with-
out adding to public debt of the banks home government. All these measures
are explicitly geared toward interrupting the negative feedback loop between
banks and sovereigns.
A Single Rulebook and the SSM should stop regulatory Balkanization, which
increases risk by separating the risk pool. One particularly blatant example
arose when national supervisors sought to prevent subsidiaries of foreign
banks from repatriating excess liquidity to their parent bank. The German
authority Ban openly admitted this discriminatory practice of ring fencing
liquidity as late as August 2014; the Commission, spurred by complaints
from Italy, had been investigating this for several years but had insufcient
legal means to stop it (Arnold 2014).
The assignment of increased supervisory authority to the central bank
follows an international trend. The US Fed and the Bank of England, among
others, also had their bank supervision mandates expanded after the nancial
crisis. The rationale underlying this trend is the priority given to internalizing
nancial externalities, whereas the previous practice that avoided giving cen-
tral banks much responsibility in supervision prioritized the prevention of
moral hazard: specically the problem that central banks as supervisors have
incentivesand the meansto cover up past supervisory failings with fresh
money (Goodhart and Schoenmaker 1995). After some wrangling (Howarth
and Quaglia 2013: 11213), the SSM got authority over supervision of all
banks in the EA. The ECB directly supervises 120 banking groups that are
large in absolute or relative terms (assets above 30 billion or 20 percent of the
home countrys GDP) or have received assistance from the emergency funds.
They represent over 80 percent of EA banks in terms of assets (ECB 2014b).
Putting the ECB at the helm of the SSM created a two-tier Single Market.
While open to all EU members, nine non-euro countries stayed out of the
SSM, among them Europes nancial center, the UK. The British government
did not stop the move, in fact it encouraged it, as it wanted to see the troubled
currency union stabilized and accepted the remorseless logic towards closer
integration, as then nance minister Osborne put it (Giles and Parker 2011).
The SSM thus split the risk pool for an integrated nancial system in the
EU. This does not necessarily create additional problems, as the co-existence
of different currencies in the Single Market already limits risk pooling through
the ECB. Swap arrangements between central banks can be an alternative way
of pooling. They have been used successfully to prevent currency crises in
Central and Eastern Europe: a hub-and-spoke system of swap lines ensured
that national central banks were not exposed to currency attacks for lack of
219
foreign exchange reserves. Mortgage lending in foreign currencies had the

potential to create mayhem at the EAs borders. The ECB established swap
lines with the Danish, Hungarian, Polish, and Swedish central banks to cover
euro-liquidity shortages which in turn entered into swap agreements with
other central banks in Central and Eastern Europe; the ECB in turn could
meet its dollar and Swiss franc shortages via swaps from the US Fed and
the Swiss National Bank to help Hungary and Poland (Allen and Moessner
2010: 27, 301).
The Single Resolution Mechanism is an independent agency linked to the
SSM: as soon as the ECB noties the SRM board that a bank is failing, it decides
along uniform lines how to handle the situation. Decision procedures can be
quite complex, however, as national authorities have to be consulted and a
large bank failure requires the decision to be taken in a plenary rather than in
the executive formation. The fund has a volume of 55 billion, from 2024
onwards to be fully paid by the industry itself. It covers at least 1 percent of
deposits of the contributing nancial institutions. Given this relatively small
sum, the main purpose of the SRM can be seen in establishing a clear hierarchy
of loss absorption: the bail-in rule puts bank shareholders and creditors (other
than insured deposit holders) rst in line (ECB 2015: 92). Together with new
bank bonus rules, this is likely to ensure that bank managers hold shares and
have to bear more losses than they used to. However, the sad case of an Italian
pensioners suicide also revealed that ordinary savers may be caught by the
bail-in rule.13 National authorities are still next in line; if they are overbur-
dened, they can approach the ESM. However, only the Direct Recapitalization
Instrument is really a relief as it does not heap more liabilities on the sover-
eign. Its volume is 60 billion. German, Dutch, and Finnish governments
were adamant that the ESM could be used for recapitalization only for future
problems, not to resolve the issues currently arising from the nancial crisis
(Howarth and Quaglia 2013: 11213).
The nal element, a European Deposit Insurance Scheme, was proposed by
the Commission in November 2015, eventually to be nanced by a levy on
the industry. This could stop deposit ight from distressed countries, which
has aggravated the liquidity and solvency problems of their banking systems.
The proposal met with immediate resistance by German Finance Minister
Schuble, who once again insisted that the scheme should not be used
to resolve existing problems. He proposed that risks that are still on banks
books, notably in the form of doubtful government bonds, would have to
be removed before the schemes introduction, for instance through bank
13
The pensioner had bought savings certicates from his regional bank, for Italians a standard
way of saving. But when the bank collapsed, such certicates turned out to be junior bonds that
were rst in line for loss absorption according to the new EU rules (Mnchau 2015).
220
resolution. He justied this as follows: Every step we take towards risk-

sharing prevents risk reduction. That is why risk reduction has to have prior-
ity (FAZ 2015: 18; own translation). Since the veil of ignorance over who will
gain from addressing current problems has been lifted, the deposit guarantee
scheme was seen as redistributive towards recipients who have taken on
excessive risk. Schubles position accepted the principle that there might be
stabilizing insurance, but only for future problems, which might be limited
with additional regulatory precautions.
Both the resolution mechanism and deposit insurance are institutions of
microprudential regulation. The idea is to protect the soundness of the
nancial system with a view to individual banks: the sum of sound parts was
meant to deliver a sound whole. But the systemic crisis in advanced countries
has led to a macroprudential turn (Hanson et al. 2011). The systemic problem
is that credit crunches and asset re sales can bring down entire economies
even if individual banks are fairly sound. The goal of macroprudential meas-
ures is to control the social costs associated with excessive balance sheet
shrinkage on the part of multiple nancial institutions hit with a common
shock (Hanson et al. 2011: 5). This denition captures the central systemic
issue, but it promotes the misleading impression that the nancial system was
hit with a . . . shock, whereas the systemic crises before and after 20078 were
the result of nancial integration and innovation itself. An important aspect
of the macroprudential turn is therefore to prevent such devastating dynamics
from evolving in the rst place.
The ECB and national authorities have now been given macroprudential
tools in a Capital Requirements Directive (CRD IV) and a Regulation, in line
with a framework agreed under Basel III. The main innovation is so-called
mandatory reciprocity for certain instruments like counter-cyclical capital
buffers (ECB 2015: 48): if credit growth is deemed excessive in one member
state, other national authorities must impose credit restrictions, in the form of
additional capital requirements of up to 2.5 percent, on cross-border banks in
their jurisdiction. This is to prevent them from lending into the initiating
states nancial markets and thus undermining the restrictive measures. This
innovation is a small step by which prudential authority can nally catch up
with an integrating nancial system.
The Governing Council of the ECB, not the SSM, is the authority for
macroprudential policy (ECB 2015: 47). This indicates that macroprudential
policy is a way of differentiating the ECBs one-size-ts-all monetary policy
regionally, an issue that other central banks, like the Bank of England, also
face acutely (Schelkle 2014a). It addresses the Walters (1988) critique of mon-
etary integration: that it brings about a pro-cyclical real interest rate effect; too
high in the stagnating regions and too low in the booming regions of a
heterogeneous union. The European Systemic Risk Board in the ECB is the
221
coordinating body for this new set of policies at the EU and member state
level, necessary because measures may interact in unpredictable ways (entry 3
in Table 7.1). Even outside a monetary union, the one-size-ts-none problem
exists in the guise of a global (or rather: US dollar) cycle: countries that are
integrated in the world economy have to follow the Feds interest rate policy
more or less closely; otherwise they will be affected by adverse capital ows
(Rey 2013).
Macroprudential policies constitute a reversal of the tendency to prioritize
nancial integration over regulatory control. The instruments of macropruden-
tial policies, such as counter-cyclical buffers and variable loan-to-value-ratios,
permit that different rules prevail in different markets (Hanson et al. 2011:
516). Insofar as they segment markets and impose rules to prevent evasion
and regulatory arbitrage, they are a form of capital control. It is therefore not
surprising that the relevant regulation stipulates limits to macroprudential
policies, providing that a measure may only be used if the macro-prudential
authority can establish that the measure is necessary, effective and proportion-
ate (ECB 2015: 48). The macroprudential turn ts into the slow rehabilitation
of capital controls at the international level that has occurred ever since the
Asian crisis in the late 1990s (IMF 2012; Korinek and Sandri 2015).
Another forceful tool that the extended mandate has given the ECB as a
macroprudential regulator is regular stress tests (comprehensive quality
assessments). Simulating different scenarios and establishing how well
banks capital buffers withstand the imaginary shocks is a way of forcing
banks to write down dubious assets and increase their capital. In the exercise
that was undertaken as a preparation for the SSM, banks took measures to
strengthen their capital base amounting to over 200 billion (ECB 2015:
91). The problem is, however, what happens when the stress test nds that
capital has to be increased and the bank cannot do this without sovereign
support. Only the ESM comes close to providing a pool which governments
might draw on to recapitalize their banking systems, and it is heavily hedged
around with conditions.
This brings us to the ultimate limitation of the banking union. Reforms
have undoubtedly responded to the functional necessities of monetary-
nancial integration which, as Jones and Underhill (2014) show, are not
unique to the EA. Market panic has subsided. Instead of merely monitoring
the use of the commons, EA institutions have started to protect it from
devastation by nancial markets. The banking union is a decisive step towards
managing the integration of markets: macroprudential tools can do so by
segmenting them temporarily. But the scal backstops that have been devel-
oped still do not rest on joint liability but on separate national guarantees. The
formal obligation for every member to contribute is a form of risk pooling but
a relatively weak one, subject to a commitment problem of the guarantors.
222
7.3 Reforming the Governance of the Commons
How profound or shallow have the reforms of the European monetary union
since 2009 been? The sheer number of new policy processes and organizations
that has been created in less than seven years is certainly impressive, whatever
ones view of their effectiveness. This frantic reform activity dees both jour-
nalistic and theoretical accounts that emphasize inertia and a status quo bias.
There has been a shift in the underlying paradigm, but the institutional
assignment of policy competences has not done away with the scal taboo.
The clearest example of this is the massive quantitative easing program that
the ECB began in 2015, which was still ongoing in late 2016. This program
meant to bring ination up to the 2 percent target, given that the EA suffered
from low and even negative ination, making private and public debt ever
more burdensome. The scal risks are borne largely by the national central
banks in the Eurosystem; only 20 percent are on the ECBs books.14
The paradigm change can be inferred from the comprehensive visions of a
genuine and complete European monetary union that the Four and Five
Presidents reports formulated. EU representatives have now rmly adopted
the language of risk sharing. In the earlier report, this language still has strong
traces of OCA theory, with a focus on asymmetric shocks: setting up risk-
sharing tools, such as a common but limited shock absorption function, can
contribute to cushioning the impact of country-specic shocks and help
prevent contagion across the euro area and beyond (van Rompuy et al.
2012: 10). The successor report takes a broader view of risk sharing, while
retaining some optimism about the capacity of private markets to spread risk
and maintaining the notion that convergence in competitiveness is needed
for the union to work. It proposes that, in the short term, a banking and
capital markets union should provide the mechanisms for private risk sharing
when a shock hits any of its members. This would give time for economic
structures [to] converge towards the best standards in Europe in the medium
term, implying unity in minimized diversity. This would eventually prepare
the ground for public risk sharing through a mechanism of scal stabilization
for the euro area as a whole (Juncker et al. 2015: 4).
The major attraction of this vision is that it indicates a shift of emphasis
from discipline and convergence towards deliberate risk sharing between
14
The ECB homepage contains the answer to a question on the Extended Asset Purchase
Programme that reads: But doesnt the new programme force losses onto national central
banks? . . . It is true that in the new programme some risks are not shared across the Eurosystem
but remain with the national central bank. The ECB is committed to the principle of risk-sharing,
and thats why 20% of the purchases fall under the regime of full risk-sharing. But the decision also
mitigates concerns about potential unintended scal consequences. See https://www.ecb.europa.
eu/explainers/tell-me-more/html/asset-purchase.en.html (accessed August 14, 2016).
223
members. But the shift is rather tentative and favors national diversity only
within rm bounds; there is still an embrace of best practices or models. We
can see in this a manifestation of the political-economic paradox of a diverse
union, exacerbated by the battering of trust and goodwill that the crisis and its
management have inicted on all sides. While its leading representatives
point to the economic benets of risk diversication, they try to minimize
the political impact of pooling risks across very different states. The problem is
that the proposed solutionconvergence on best standardsmay reduce the
benets to be had from integration. Implicitly, the Five Presidents report
interprets this as a tradeoff or exchange. Convergence on best standards
allows the EU to pursue a reform agenda that includes everybody. At the same
time, it sounds like a concession and assurance to the fortunate member
states, always inclined to consider their fortune to be deserved, that the less
fortunate will have to earn their inclusion into the risk pool. This either
reduces the potential benets of pooling or postpones it forever because
convergence does not happen, not least because the best standards are
moving targets.
The ECB took a different approach to addressing the paradox that diversity
increases the potential economic gains but also the political costs of risk
sharing. It made the costs of limited risk sharing quite visible; some like
Whelan (2014c) would say excessively so. By rationing access to ECB liquidity
in ostentatious compliance with its narrow mandate, the Bank repeatedly
escalated market panic. It thus put pressure both on the distressed govern-
ment and the majority in the Council to take some responsibility for crisis
management. Escalating market panic made the fortunate members aware
that shifting all adjustment pressures onto weaker parties is also costly to
themselves. It is difcult to prove this interpretation but it makes sense in
light of the sequence of events. In return for the SMP, Trichet forced the heads
of state to agree to an emergency fund (Barber 2010). Draghi advanced the role
of the ECB as a lender of last resort to sovereigns when extreme circumstances
so required but tied OMT interventions to the existence of an ESM program
that would give it residual indemnity. The ECB used its capacity for nancial
stabilizationand the ability to refrain from using this capacityto raise the
costs of political stalemate and discord. The creative exercise of monetary
solidarity was thereby made conditional on some political agreement between
unequal and divided partners to lend at least partial assistance to each other.
The diversity of risks thereby became the lever for political collaboration.
But the ECBs efforts to cajole member states into building institutions
for risk sharing are institutionally perilous. The letter by Trichet and Draghi
to Prime Minister Berlusconi (see fn 7) highlighted this: it was a step too
far even if directed against an utterly disreputable government. The ECB
made itself a soft target for criticism for overreaching its powers and lacking
224
transparency in its operations (Schmidt 2015: 316). One should not assume
that the ECB acted in this way for the greater good of monetary solidarity.
Cajoling scal authorities was a by-product of the ECBs attempt to get out of a
very vulnerable position (Mabbett and Schelkle 2016b). Sole responsibility for
crisis management left the ECB exposed to political attacks, from outside and
inside the Bank. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England were engaged in
similar maneuvers with their scal counterparts, but they enjoyed the support
of the executive arm of government, even while the Fed endured incessant
attacks in Congress. The late Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa (2004: 180) foresaw
that the ECBs separation from any and all governments could leave it iso-
lated, remarking that: It would be unfortunate if [the ECBs] independence
were to be confused with loneliness.
The Five Presidents report, largely written by teams around ECB President
Draghi and Council President Tusk, can be seen as an attempt to set out a plan
for monetary-scal cooperation, but it received a rather lukewarm reception
by heads of state. The reforms since 2009 have extended risk sharing but did
not do away with, in particular, the limits on scal risk sharing. This keeps the
threat of negative feedback loops between banks and sovereign alive and,
under extreme stress, tends to concentrate risks on the weakest links. In
these extreme situations, the ECB remains lonelyby design, not out of
confusion. Seen in this light, the announcement by Mario Draghi (2012)
that the ECB will do whatever it takes to save the euro is as much a
statement of political defeat as of monetary prowess.
225
Part III
Solidarity in Action
8
Social Solidarity through Labor

Market Integration
This chapter is about social solidarity in terms of risk sharing with economic
migrants in two monetary unions. There are two reasons for including migra-
tion in a study of monetary solidarity. First, there is still a presumption in
much commentary on the European monetary union that it needs higher
labor mobility in order to function properly. This commentary, in the trad-
ition of the mainstream theory of monetary integration, the theory of OCA,
portrays cross-border movement of labor as not categorically different from
the movement of labor within borders. This is a distorting simplication and
does not speak to the concerns that migration raises in both destination and
origin countries. One main point of this chapter is that labor mobility is not
an effective and reliable adjustment and insurance mechanism for regions in a
monetary union, irrespective of how high or low mobility is.
Second, social solidarity with economic migrants from another member
state is a possible risk-sharing mechanism, important for individuals who
have fallen on hard times if not of great relevance in the aggregate
(Section 8.3.2). This risk sharing in labor markets can be facilitated or hindered
by the welfare state. But eminent political economists posit an apparent clash
between economic freedoms and social rights; both are seen as citizenship
rights that can only go together in a full-edged political union. Scholars like
Maurizio Ferrera (2005, 2009) and Fritz Scharpf (2009) see welfare states and
social market economies, respectively, as conned to nationally constituted
communities easily upset by economic freedoms. Others, like Caporaso and
Tarrow (2009) and Norbert Reich (2008), acknowledge the tension but then
analyze judicial ways of mitigating it.
This chapter shows that tensions between the rights of migrants and residents
also exist in the United States and do not raise any categorically different issues
for Europes more generous welfare states. But welfare states, far from being an
obstacle, are a vehicle of the economic freedom to take up employment in
another country, protecting both migrants and resident workers. A consistent

conceptualization sees economic freedoms as part of social entitlements. Even
so, freedom of movement of persons is an important social insurance mechan-
ism for individuals but a potentially problematic and regressive channel of risk
sharing between regions.
8.1 Labor Mobility in a World of Welfare
Labor mobility can be a risk-sharing mechanism inside or beyond a monetary

union. It provides an escape route for individuals who cannot nd gainful or
adequate employment in the country of residence, whether because the econ-
omy is in a cyclical downturn or because it is persistently underperforming or
is simply poorer and backward. Migration takes place on a great range of
terms. The social rights of migrants are among the critical factors governing
the migration process . . . that differentiate the market for men from the
market for shirts (Piore 1979: 8). These social rights hinge on at least three
institutional features: (a) the formal access rights of migrants to another state,
(b) the welfare entitlements once migrants are admitted, and (c) the labor
market conditions under which migrants can hold onto a job.
In the famous categorization of citizenship rights by T. H. Marshall (1950:
1011), (a) is a civil right (the rights necessary for individual freedom), while
(b) and (c) are social rights (the whole range from the right to a modicum of
economic welfare and security to the right to share to the full in the social
heritage and to live the life of a civilised being). Political rights contain the
passive and active right to participate in elections (the right to participate in
the exercise of political power, as a member of a body invested with political
authority or as an elector of the members of such a body). His stylized history
envisaged a sequence in which social rights beyond the village community
were acquired last. EU citizenship and the regulation of free movement of
persons and services have a direct bearing on all three determinants but we
note from the outset that EU political rights in the Marshallian sense are
conned to local and European elections. This raises the political-economic
paradox that most of the benets of migration accrue to destination countries
in Western Europe (Atoyan et al. 2016: 5) while the ercest political resistance
to migration also arises within destination countries. In fact, this political
resistance to immigration typically extends to European integration since it
is EU norms of non-discrimination that tend to constrain domestic practices
rather than political representation of immigrants in the democracies where
they are resident.
The focus here is on economic migration. Formal employment generally
means that the migrant joins, temporarily or permanently, the risk pool that is
230
Social Solidarity through Labor Market Integration
0.9
0.8
Percentage of total population
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
D
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ai
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ite
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et
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Work + Accompanying family EU Free movement Family Reunion Humanitarian Other
Figure 8.1. Immigration exceeding one year by category of entry or status change, 2012
Source: OECD 2014a
another states tax-transfer system, but market segmentation and policies

limiting the acquisition of social rights may prevent this. Of course, a consid-
erable share of immigration is not driven by economic motives. In the US, the
bulk of all immigration is actually related to family reunion (different from
accompanying family of workers). The importance of family migration is a
long-term trend (OECD 2014a: 13). It is somewhat understated in the snap-
shot for 2012 that Figure 8.1 shows, because this was the rst year in which
workers from the new member states in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
could move freely to Austria and Germany. These member states had insisted
on the full length of the transitional arrangements that can restrict free
movement for seven years after accession.
These gures cover only permanent migrants, dened by the OECD as
staying in another country for more than a year. In 2012, the OECD (2014a: 13,
245) counted a ow of about 4 million permanent new migrants, which
compares with 1.9 million temporary migrants who have explicitly timed
work permits, such as intracompany transfers or seasonal work. As noted by
Piore (1986: 25), many migrants are not birds of passage but move with a
longer-term perspective or end up staying against their original intention. Recent
migrants from CEE have been staying much more permanently than any other
group of migrants to Western Europe previously (Atoyan et al. 2016: para. 2).
The article by Mundell (1961) that pioneered OCA theory elevated labor
mobility to the prime adjustment mechanism between member states of
a monetary union. When member states are differently affected by a
231
macroeconomic shock, the displaced workers in the more severely hit region
could move and nd work in the less affected region. In this textbook model,
there are no important analytical differences between worker movement
across sectors, across regions within a country and across state bordershis
example was CanadaUS migration.1 Free movement of labor means the
absence of restrictive regulation. This perspective is captured in the OECDs
(2014a: 147) denition of free movement as not subject to restrictions on
occupation, duration or employer characteristics. The alternative view devel-
oped here is that free movement is a differentiated social right to seek employ-
ment, residence, and social security in another state, not the absence of any
regulation. This perspective follows Piore (1979) in drawing attention to the
differences between the market for labor services and the market for shirts.
OCA scholars never dwelt on the political implications of their theory.
Regional adjustment through mobility requires real-wage exibility in the
region receiving these displaced workers (McKinnon 1963). Migration is likely
to restrain real-wage growth in those segments of the labor market that absorb
these workers, mitigated to some extent by the fact that they may also boost
demand. Seen as a risk pool for mobile workers, an OCA thus compensates
unfortunate workers with access to jobs elsewhere in the monetary union
while those fortunate workers elsewhere pay through the dampening effect
of migration on their real wages. It is fairly obvious that anti-immigration
sentiments may arise in the destination region, although much will depend on
the wider context of economic growth and intensity of competition for jobs.
The US is typically cited as the prime empirical example of the labor market
exibility that is required for the smooth functioning of a monetary union.2
Comparative political economists who study national capitalist institutions
and welfare systems grant that the US currency area adjusts through labor
mobility and real-wage exibility. But they maintain that there are other worlds
and varieties of mature capitalism that adjust differently while they may deliver
as much economic well-being as the US benchmark.3 They achieve this equiva-
lence with another combination of institutions, above all generous social safety
nets, coordinated wage bargains, and long-term credit relationships. Adjust-
ment proceeds not primarily via exible wages but incremental quantitative
as well as qualitative changes in employment, for which both nancial stake-
holders and the welfare state provide the necessary time.
1
There are exceptions to the simplistic economists view of free movement, for instance Boeri
(2010).
2
Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1991) pioneered the comparison, this was taken up by Bayoumi and
Eichengreen (1993) and others, recently again by Krugman (2013: 441, 4456).
3
See Esping-Andersen (1990) for the classic regime classication of welfare-state regimes,
Kitschelt et al. (1999) for a collection of eminent scholars on comparative capitalism, Hall and
Soskice (2001) and their collaborators for the most parsimonious liberal versus coordinated
classication and Amable (2003) for a comprehensive clustering of diverse capitalisms.
232
These two approaches, of OCA theory, on the one hand, and comparative
capitalism studies, on the other, evaluate migration and especially free move-
ment very differently. For economists, immigration can rejuvenate the work-
force and increase the exibility of labor markets. Parts of the existing
workforce may object to this but business interests will support immigration,
along with voters who perceive positive scal effects and groups who are not
in competition with the new arrivals. For comparative political economists,
migration can potentially upset an institutional equilibrium, undermining
wage bargains and employment standards. This can produce wide adverse
effects on the receiving states labor force, and on the scal soundness of its
welfare state.
There are also similarities between economic and comparative capitalism
diagnoses. Both analyze migration from the perspective of the destination
countries. Both see the welfare state as incompatible with openness generally
and with the integration of migrants particularly. Against this background,
this chapter examines rst how free movement is constructed as a distinct
social right of migration. Free movement in the EA is compared with free
movement within the United States to see how the two systems construct
this social right. This perspective sides with comparative political economists
insofar as it analyzes free movement of workers as movement between
different regimes of social rights. Labor market integration is centered on the
meta-regulation of social entitlements that in mature welfare states come
with a job. The welfare state is the vehicle that can distribute the real or
perceived effects on wages and employment conditions of the resident
workforce more evenly among taxpayers and thus establish migration as
a more equitable insurance arrangement. Furthermore, understanding the
efcacy of migration also requires us to consider its effect on the home
states. Empirical evidence suggests that the individual insurance provided by
migration comes at the cost of the region of origin, although the outcome
depends on the socio-economic characteristics of migrants (Huber and Tondl
2012; Atoyan et al. 2016).
The upshot of the comparison that follows is that European welfare states in
conjunction with EU regulation are conducive to higher reservation wages
and less dualization for those in work than US safety nets; this comes, how-
ever, at the cost of higher unemployment among migrants in the EU. This can
be seen as a political strategy that reduces conict in the labor market in
destination countries and it arguably also ensures more insurance for regular
economic migrants, while the effect on voters is more mixed: migration is
seen as a scal burden even though this seems to be largely a misperception
(Burgoon 2014; Dustmann and Frattini 2014).
The analysis in this chapter casts some doubt on the efcacy of risk sharing
through migration in a diverse union. In the origin countries, the loss of
233
predominantly young and better-educated workers has adverse cumulative

effects, as predicted by endogenous growth theory and the new economic
geography with their emphasis on positive externalities from agglomeration
(Atoyan et al. 2016: para. 4). Mass emigration creates skill shortages, reduces
potential growth, and removes the political inuence of active and educated
professionals. In the destination countries, the literature points to the phenom-
enon of dualization (Bertola 1998; Rueda and Pontusson 2000; Emmenegger
and Careja 2012). In these segments or pockets of sectoral labor markets,
migrants and resident outsiders are subject to exible wages and short-term
contracts while natives and long-term residents enjoy efciency wages and
decent working conditions. To the extent that a union of mature welfare states
reinforces dualization, the insurance that is provided by migration rights is paid
for in an inequitable and regressive way (Stiglitz 2016: 134).
None of these considerations deny that labor mobility can help individuals
to share the risk of an economic downturn and/or the risk of being left poorer
than the rest of the union. But this does not extend to regions or member
states of a monetary union. It is striking that US labor mobility has signi-
cantly declined while free movement in the EA has increased, in particular
during the crisis years of 200813 (Beine et al. 2013; Dao et al. 2014; Jauer et al.
2014). But nobody would claim that the EA functioned so much better as a
consequence. The evidence suggests that the role of free movement for inter-
state risk sharingin contrast to individual insuranceis inherently limited
and possibly counterproductive.
8.2 The Social Right to Internal Migration in

Two Monetary Unions
Free movement of citizens across member states borders is regulated by the EU

and the federal government in the US, respectively. The rules for the EU apply to
the EA, as the monetary union is contained within the economic union. The
commitment to let citizens of another member state reside on ones territory and
give them conditional access to social security4 is typically seen as part of full-
edged political union, as in a scal federation. However social citizenship in the
EU is distinct from political citizenship because migrants do not have the right
to vote in national elections. This can be compared to the US, where Marshalls
sequence holds: political citizenship was established in the nineteenth century
(for white males) while social citizenship developed subsequently. It is generally
more limited than in the EA.
4
Social security is used here synonymously with social policy more widely, not conned to old-
age security (as in the US) or social insurance only (as in the EU codication).
234
8.2.1 Territorial Access and Welfare Entitlements

The following discussion focuses on ten EA member countries, selected for
reasons of data availability. This union of ten states had a combined popula-
tion size of 309 million in 2012, similar to the US with 314 million. These
countries are the founding EA members, namely Austria, Belgium, Finland,
France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain, exclud-
ing the city-state Luxembourg. They are one country for purposes of labor
mobility, just as normative OCA theory requires, but with different regional
welfare systems.
Table 8.1 gives an overview of residency and social security rights attached
to migration within the US and EA monetary unions. It provides information
on two determinants of risk sharing through migration: (a) the right to reside
in another member state and (b) entitlements to social security once resident.
It compares the rights of a Spaniard who wants to work in Germany (second
column) and those of a migrant from Mississippi who moves to Massachusetts
Table 8.1. Internal migration and immigration as social rights in the EU/EA-10 and the US
EU/EA-10 US
EU nationals (free Third-country US citizens (free Non-US citizens

movement) nationals movement)
Formal EcActive: National labor Unrestricted Labor market tests,

access rights unrestricted, market tests, shortage lists,
of migrants including shortage lists, numerical limits
to state accompanying numerical limits,
family (PBS for skills and
Ec-Non-Active: work experience);
unrestricted for three EU rules for long-
months term residents,
researchers, high
skilled, families
Welfare EcActive: same as EcActive: same as Same as state Eligible for federally
entitlements natives; contributory EU nationals for residents; funded means-
once benets exportable contributory contributory tested programs
migrants are Ec-Non-Active: own health care and benets under after ve years,
admitted resources and unemployment state except for previous
sickness insurance benets, administration work history
required for ve contributory and (unemployment (>ten years) or
years of residence, non-contributory insurance) military service;
then same as natives pensions; exportable pension
only contributory entitlements
pensions exportable exportable under
bilateral
agreements
Note: PBS = Points-based system

Source: Free movement Directive 2004/38; Coordination Regulation 883/2004; EMN 2014; OECD 2014: ch.3; CRS
2014a; US Social Security Administration, International Programs at https://www.ssa.gov/international/countrylist3.
htm (accessed November 15, 2015)
235
for work (fourth column). These rights of internal migrants are contrasted
with the rights of migrants from outside, say a Turkish citizen moving to
Germany for work (third column) and a Mexican to the US (fth column).
Residency is a starting point for obtaining some social rights of migration. In
the EU/EA, free movement entails immediate access to residency in another
member state. While this applies to all US citizens for an unlimited duration,
for EU nationals the right is conditional on being economically active:
either as a worker or self-employed. The categorization of jobseekers is con-
tested but the Free Movement Directive (2004/38, Article 7(3)) lays down that
if EU nationals have worked for over a year in the host state and become
involuntarily unemployed, they retain their active status for at least six
months. Without previous employment, the status is contestable. After ve
years residency, the right to remain becomes permanent.
The Maastricht Treaty established EU citizenship in 1992, historically the
rst and only case of supranational citizenship that complements national
citizenship (Article 20 TFEU). It gives an unconditional right to three months
residence in another member state to all EU nationals. After three months, the
right to reside becomes conditional for those labelled economically inactive,
typically pensioners and students: they must have sufcient resources to
sustain themselves as well as sickness insurance for up to ve years. They
can be expelled if they fail to full these conditions or seek assistance,
although authorities must give due consideration to individual circumstances.
A real link to the host state can trump this condition.5
But even if an EU national is expelled, they can in principle re-enter for
another three months. This has led the governments of Austria, Germany, the
Netherlands, and the UK to write an open letter to the Council Presidency,
asking for the creation of the instrument of a re-entry ban for deported EU
citizens (EPRS 2014: 11). While taking pains to stress that they do not question
free movement as such, the abuse of this right by non-economic migrants
threaten[s] the acceptance of the European idea of solidarity [in the receiving
societies]. The Commissioners who were copied in replied drily that the Free
Movement Directive 2004/38 (Article 35) already allows governments to
adopt the necessary measures to refuse, terminate or withdraw any right
conferred by this Directive in the case of abuse of rights or fraud, such as
marriages of convenience.
Union citizenship thus differentiates economically non-active EU nationals
from third-country nationals who would have their visa or work permit
terminated if they could not nd employment. When it comes to entitlement
5
Recital 16, Directive 2004/38. This has been established in the landmark case of Grzelczyk
(C-184/99), a French student residing in Belgium who needed (and had to be granted) social
assistance to complete his studies.
236
to benets, there is a durational residency requirement for the economically

non-active, while workers and the self-employed have immediate and equal
access to all benets upon arrival. For example, if migrants work for low wages,
they have a right to any in-work benet that nationals receive under such
circumstances.6
In the US, no such residency requirements exist for US citizens although
this has been the outcome of protracted legal battles. Residency requirements
for receiving social assistance were a favored measure on the part of state and
local authorities for deterring poor migrants until the late 1960s, when social
activists began to challenge these practices in the Supreme Court as being
discriminatory (Schram and Soss 1999: 43). In the most famous case, Shapiro v.
Thompson,7 the Court ruled forty such durational residency requirements
unconstitutional (Schram and Soss 1999: 43) on the grounds that they vio-
lated the right to travel. This right to travel was a judicial construction since
the word travel does not appear in the US Constitution. The judges saw it
implied by the Fourteenth Amendment that gives all US citizens the same
privileges and immunities in the several states.8 A new social right was
constructed out of a much older civil right.
But it was not assured. The legality of residency requirements for social
assistance came to the fore again with the 1996 welfare reform under the
Clinton administration. The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity
Reconciliation Act authorized any State receiving a TANF grant to pay the
benet amount of another States TANF program to residents who have lived
in the State for less than 12 months (Senz, case summary).9 Fifteen states
introduced new rules subsequent to this authorization, seeking to pay only
the lower benets of the origin state (Allard 1998: 55). In Senz v. Roe,10
however, the Supreme Court not only struck down Californias application
of this rule but ruled against the Acts authorization as well: This Court has
consistently held that Congress may not authorize the States to violate the
Fourteenth Amendment. Moreover, the protection afforded to a citizen by
that Amendments Citizenship Clause limits the powers of the National Gov-
ernment as well as the States (Senz v. Roe, case summary). The Californian
government advanced a purely scal argument for disadvantaging newly
arriving citizens. In EU parlance, it maintained that paying the relatively
high Californian benets to newly arriving citizens is a burden on its
6
E.g. Case C-22/08 Vatsouras, paras 2632.
7
Shapiro v. Thompson, 394 U.S. 618 (1969).
8
The Amendment itself was regarded dormant because it was included into the Constitution
after the abolition of slavery in 1868, as a safeguard against Southern states depriving black
Americans of their citizenship rights through so-called Black Codes (Winick 1999: 593).
9
TANF stands for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, a means-tested cash benet that is
conditional on the presence of children.
10
Senz v. Roe, 526 U.S. 489 (1999).
237
social security system (Rec.10 and Article 7(1) Directive 2004/38). The Court
acknowledged scal concerns but rejected a purely contributory rationale for
the denial of benets to new residents. This rationale would permit states to
allocate all benets and services according to past tax contributions which,
quoting from Shapiro v. Thompson, Justice Stevens deemed absurd: it would
mean that new residents could be barred from schools and parks or deprived of
police and re protection (Stevens in Senz v. Roe: sect.V).
In the EU regulation of entitlements, the distinction between contributory
and non-contributory benets is a guiding principle for adjudicating on the
entitlements of migrating EU nationals. Contributory benets are export-
able, whereas non-contributory benets can only be obtained while the
migrant is resident in the host state. Regulation 883/2004 on the Coordin-
ation of Social Security Systems rules that EU nationals must be allowed to
take with them any entitlements they typically acquired through contribu-
tions (social security) if they leave, such as pensions or workers compensa-
tion for accidents.11 There are rules for the aggregation of benets (allowing
pension entitlements acquired in more than one country to be combined)
which had been developed on a bilateral basis before they were then exten-
sively meta-regulated by the EU (Bolderson and Gains 1993: 18). These aggre-
gation rules ensure that a mobile EU national does not lose out because of
national requirements that contributions have to be paid for a minimum
period of time before benets can be drawn: contributions paid in one mem-
ber state count towards the minimum duration in another member state. If a
migrant qualies for benets in two member states, each government pays pro
rata. Double payment for the same period is excluded, however, which means
that the more generous state is likely to pay. Non-contributory benets
nanced by general taxes are not generally exportable: social and medical
assistance and so-called Special Non-Contributory Benets (SNCB) can be
reserved for residents, although not for nationals.12
SNCBs are an articial category of benets that the EU legislature created to
resolve a conict between some member states and the Court and the Com-
mission.13 The latter tended to take an expansive view of the contributory
nature of benets, regarding rights acquired during a period of residency as
non-wage entitlements that mobile workers should be able to export. Member
11
The Regulation covers ten branches of social security that include health care, old age,
employment-related, and family benets (Regulation 883/2004, Article 3). They do not have to be
strictly nanced by individual contributions which is one reason for the enormous amount of case
law in this area.
12
Article 3(5) and Article 70(4) of Regulation 883/2004; CJEU judgment of November 11, 2014, C-333/
13 Dano, para. 63 considers SNCB as social assistance in the sense of the Free Movement Directive.
13
SNCBs must be specically listed in Annex X of the Coordination Regulation. The haggling
over this list between member states and the Commission delayed the implementation of
Regulation 883/2004 until May 2010.
238
state authorities objected that some benets are meant to ensure social cohe-
sion among residents. SNCBs are typically paid on top of other benets, such
as low public pensions, and are granted to guarantee a certain living standard
of elderly or disabled residents, but they are not means tested like social
assistance. In Skalka14 the Court accepted the member states argument that
they should be able to restrict certain non-contributory social entitlements to
those residing on the territory, even though this tends to favor nationals.
Pennings (2012: 330) has an interesting interpretation of the debate and the
Courts decision:
Solidarity was not the reason why social benets were made accessible to non-
nationals; rather, solidarity is referred to in the case law when a particular national
scheme is allowed to be defended against foreign nationals, as in the case of special
non-contributory benets, where the Court upheld a residence condition as
objectively justied, while referring to the relation between these benets and
the solidarity of the country concerned.
In his view, solidarity is invoked when the Court accepts that free movement
and non-discrimination have limits. Pennings (2012) expresses a common
understanding of free movement as being opposed to nationally constituted
solidarity (Ferrera 2005, 2009).
But it is not entirely correct to say that the Court has never invoked
solidarity in order to justify the entitlement of non-nationals to benets. For
instance, in Grzelczyk (C-184/99, para. 44) the Court noted that a certain
degree of nancial solidarity between nationals of a host Member State and
nationals of other Member States is implied in the stipulation that bene-
ciaries of the right of residence must not become an unreasonable burden on
the public nances of the host Member State. It can be granted that this is a
rather weak and indirect line of reasoning. This implied that free movement is
not necessarily the opposite of solidarity but can be its manifestation. Member
states are obliged to grant solidarity in the sense of access to domestic support
systems but this obligation is bounded by its reasonableness.15
The detailed regulation of the social right of free movement makes it an ex
ante mechanism of risk sharing (Section 2.4): the conditions of claiming
insurance are specied and rule-based, not left to the discretion of destination
countries once the insurance case arises. Claiming insurance here means that
an EU national can escape the bad luck of poor employment prospects in his
or her home state without becoming a second-class citizen. The comparison
with the institutions of access and entitlement for third-country nationals
14
Case C-160/02, [2004] ECR I-56.
15
Subsequently, the Free Movement Directive 2004/38 stipulated only that beneciaries must
not become a burden, which leaves out the adjective unreasonable on which the Courts
argument relied (Article 7(1)).
239
(e.g. Turkish migrants to an EU member state) and non-US citizens (e.g. a

Mexican immigrant) reveals stark differences. Access is regulated in a discre-
tionary fashion (Table 8.1): labor market tests ask employers to prove that they
cannot recruit among residents/nationals; shortage lists regarding desirable
occupations and numerical limits on particular nationalities are adjusted in
line with the socio-economic and political situation in the destination coun-
try, not that of the countries of origin (OECD 2014a: 22130). In fact, this can
lead to tighter rationing exactly when the insurance case arises: as more
migrants try to improve on their life chances, a political backlash against
a ood of foreigners becomes more likely. Point-based systems that some
EA-10 countries like Austria have in place give more assurance and transpar-
ency to applicants, but they still select the best candidates from the national
point of view.
The comparison with the US shows what difference risk sharing through
free movement and non-discrimination can make in contrast to risk sharing
through citizenship. The US knows no distinction between economically
active and inactive citizens as regards the right to reside and receive benets,
at least once the Supreme Court established an extensive constitutional right
to travel that includes the entitlement to (non-exportable, non-contributory)
social assistance at the destination. The ip side is that US rules draw a sharp
distinction between citizens and non-citizens.16 Immigrant workers are not
entitled to needs-based benets for the rst ve years and hence there is no
risk sharing but only the obligation to sustain oneself through remunerated
work. If immigrants are lucky enough to come from an OECD country with
which the US has bilateral social security agreements, they will be able to take
their pension entitlements with them if they want to retire in their home
country. So the majority of legal immigrants, notably from Mexico, can take
their pension entitlements with them, provided they were registered to have
paid social security payroll taxes for at least ten years.17 To that extent, old-age
poverty is a risk that is shared through the immigration rules laid down in
bilateral agreements, similar to the exportability rules in the EU.
16
The rules for third-country nationals in the EU are less dichotomous: there are different rules
for researchers, students, family members, Blue Card holders, and long-term residents. The latter
two categories are almost on an equal footing with EU nationals. There are some common EU
standards regarding access to social security, family reunion, and intra-EU mobility of third-
country nationals but a lot of rules remain subject to member states discretion (EMN 2013:
345, 424).
17
The more problematic issue was an estimated 1112 million undocumented immigrants in
the US in 2014. Since 1996, the Internal Revenue Service provided about 21 million immigrants with
an individual taxpayer identication number without reporting them to the immigration authorities.
Due to their illegal status, they could not get a social security number. It meant that these immigrants
paid the social security payroll tax (through their employers) and thus nanced an estimated $100
billion of pensions, health care for the elderly, and tax subsidies for other low-income workers, while
they could not claim any of these federal benets themselves (Ohlemacher 2015).
240
8.2.2 Dualism in Labor Markets and Risk Sharing

Labor market conditions can be more or less conducive to economic migrants
nding a job, particularly a job matching their qualications. The large
income discrepancies between member states even in the EA-10 but also
within the US,18 and between these monetary unions and the outside world,
ensure that there is a highly elastic supply of migrant labor to the richer
regions. This elasticity has been reinforced by recent labor market reforms
within Europe and the US which made cash benets to adults of working age
conditional on working or at least on training. So-called activating measures
in the EU, for instance Hartz IV in Germany and the Earned Income Tax Credit
(EITC) in the US, are examples of such in-work cash benets. They have added
members of the resident workforce to the labor supply and put them in direct
competition with immigrants.
Economists have argued since the late 1980s that, in response to the open-
ing of borders and deindustrialization, an insider-outsider structure in the
labor market has emerged (Lindbeck and Snower 1986; Bertola 1998). Organ-
ized labor, sometimes in collusion with domestic business, supposedly
defended the employment conditions of domestic workers, the insiders,
and thus shifted the risks of precarious and low-paid employment onto the
reserve army of immigrants and parts of the young and female workforce.
Political economists have analyzed in depth why even social democratic
parties have allowed such dualism to emerge, for instance by introducing
exible employment contracts for newcomers that do not touch those already
established in work (King and Rueda 2008; Palier and Thelen 2010;
Emmenegger et al. 2012).
A focus on insiders and outsiders suggests that we will nd the answers to
what determines risk sharing with migrants in the organization of the supply
(worker) side of the labor market. By contrast, the notion of employment
dualism developed by Piore (1979, 1986) and Berger and Piore (1980) sees
dualism as an inherent feature of capitalist development, rooted in the prac-
tices and incentives of employers. Capitalist development tends to generate a
supply of menial jobs, through specialization, routinization, and techno-
logical progress. At the same time, social norms evolve with rising living
standards, meaning that job aspirations and the quest for employment secur-
ity rise with general income. These social norms become embodied in the
political regulation of labor markets and make it increasingly hard to ll the
menial jobs. It is then a matter of political choice whether the dirty, insecure
18
The coefcient of variation was 27 percent for the (gross) average wages of a single, childless
worker in the EA-10 (in 2012) while it was 15 percent for the US states (in 2013). Own calculations
from OECD and US census data.
241
jobs of society are turned over to foreigners, national minorities, or machines

(Berger and Piore 1980: 910).
Temporary migrants cater to this demand as do those compelled to take up
work by benet conditionality. Dualism means that those migrants with little
education are more likely to be among the working poor (Figure 8.2) which is
almost double across OECD countries. The outlier Germany can be explained
by higher unemployment (and higher self-employment) among those not
born in Germany. Another manifestation of dualism is that the highly edu-
cated migrants tend to be overqualied for the jobs they perform. Only in the
US do we nd no dualism in this regard but a relatively high overqualication
rate for both natives and non-natives (Figure 8.3).
The social norms driving political intervention lead to a differentiation of
the market for shirts from the market for labor services that produce shirts
(Piore 1979: 8). In democracies, this may also reach secondary labor markets
and self-employment, as Baldwins (1990) history of welfare-state develop-
ment shows in detail. Informal employment also challenges tighter regulated
employment in the rst labor market through outsourcing and other practices
that circumvent regulation. This may then mobilize organized labor and
employers interested in a skilled and loyal workforce to lobby the government
(Swenson 2002: 1744). Secondary labor markets may thus become targets of
political regulation as well. A decisive intermediate institution is the welfare
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
GRC USA ESP FIN ITA BEL DEU OECD NLD AUT FRA PRT
Native-born household Foreign-born household
Figure 8.2. In-work poverty risk of households with low-educated household

head(s), 2011
Source: OECD 2014
Note: In-work poverty risk denotes the share of individuals who live in a household where the
equivalized income is below half of the median income of the whole population living in the
country. The equivalent scale used is the square root scale.
242
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
ESP ITA GRC IRL USA AUT BEL DEU OECD FIN FRA NLD PRT
Native-born Foreign-born
Figure 8.3. Overqualication rates among those with tertiary education in employ-
ment, 1564-year-olds
Source: OECD 2014
Note: Those with tertiary education are considered overqualied if their job is classied as ISCO 4 to
9 (ISCO stands for International Standard Classication of Occupations).
state (Esping-Andersen 1990: 1417). Welfare-state programs can mitigate

dualism, for instance by providing universal benets such as accessible edu-
cation and tax-nanced health care that insure against poverty traps plus a
minimum wage underpinned by social assistance which establishes a reserva-
tion wage across the board. Welfare-state programs can also entrench dualism,
however, by making more generous social entitlements dependent on formal
employment and regular contributions, for instance to health insurance,
earnings-related unemployment benets, and private education. Such welfare
states give those without a formal employment history only means-tested
social assistance and basic public schooling to fall back on.
The extent of dualism that the welfare state mitigates or generates also
depends on whether benets and standard setting extend to all kinds of employ-
ment or are focused on wage-dependent employment only. Self-employment
can be an alternative upholding the reservation wage, if it is covered by social
programs, or it can be an unregulated sphere of self-exploitation, entrenching
dualism. The regulation of qualications and professional services is an import-
ant determinant of the role that self-employment plays.
Against this background, we can see migration as a social right that gives
individuals and their families access to economic opportunities underpinned
by social security. It is a right, however, that may be only conditionally
and partially granted, in which case migration will be closely connected
with dualism in the labor market. The following discussion dissects the
243
determinants of dualism, examining in turn reservation wages, competition

via the services market, and competition from self-employment.
RESERVATION WAGE LEVELS

An important driver of differentiation is whether the price for labor services
has a oor or can be driven down by competition. Benets for able-bodied
adults of working age that can substitute for earnings (unemployment bene-
ts, social assistance) can establish a reservation level for those in regular
employment, particularly if supported by minimum wages (by statute or
through collective agreements). Workers do not have to accept a wage below
the minimum wage and if they cannot nd work at that wage they have a
safety net to fall back on. Table 8.2 lists statutory minimum wages and the two
major cash benets for working adults in the EA-10 and in US states.19 The
cash benets selected are unemployment compensation for up to one year
and social assistance, both benets that an internal migrant might want to
claim if s/he moves between states in one of these monetary unions. Since
actual benet levels are highly sensitive to family situation and previous
earnings, unemployment benets here are taken for a single person with no
children, who was fully employed before losing a job in the state of resi-
dence.20 In the US, a single worker without children would not receive an
earnings subsidy from the EITC but would pay federal tax if fully employed at
the minimum wage (CBPP 2015). For social assistance, the case shown in
Table 8.2 is for a lone parent with two children who is either unemployed or
in low-wage full-time employment. For the US, social assistance here means
the combined benet from the Supplementary Nutritional Assistance Program
(SNAP), formerly food stamps, and TANF (for which the presence of children is
a precondition). Anybody on TANF will be entitled to vouchers under SNAP.
It does not come as a great surprise that the US leaves considerably more
room for low wage competition than most EA-10 countries: minimum wage
levels are lower and cash benets for adults tend to be less generous. Even the
most generous US states offer only about as much as the least generous EA-10
member states do relative to the average worker in the primary labor market.21
In most states, the statutory minimum wage for a full-time worker is below the
unemployment benet that previously full-time employed workers would get
if they qualied, but above or equal to the social assistance level that lone
19
See Immervoll (2009) for a detailed assessment of minimum-income benets.
20
There is evidence that unmarried individuals are signicantly more likely to migrate than
those married (Dustmann and Grlach 2015: 278).
21
This observation does not depend on the EA-10 selection that leaves out later members of the
EA like Slovakia: as a share of the national average wage, Eastern European countries show as much
variety in their benet levels as their Western neighbors (Immervoll 2009: 1213).
244
Table 8.2. Variation in monthly cash benets for interstate free movement migrants,
201214
US states EA-10 member states
Statutory minimum As share of average 27% (federal average) 3551%a

wage wage in state 936% (states)a
Previously full-employed average worker, single, no children
Unemployment Median $189 (min. benet) 1272 (gross and net)
benets $1754 (max. benet)
As share of average 2458% 3075% (gross)
wage in state 5175% (net)c
Lone parent with two children
Social Median $869b 1506/1626d
As share of average 1435% 065% (for unemployed)
wage in state
assistance 3096% (low-wage
employed)
Note:
(a) range of lowest to highest state minimum wage; as of 2013, only six EA-10 members have a statutory minimum wage
(Belgium, France, Ireland, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain);
(b) combined benet of TANF and SNAP before 2008;
(c) net is after income taxes and social security contributions;
(d) the rst gure is for an unemployed lone parent with no previous earnings, the second gure is for a lone parent
employed at 30 percent of the average wage
Source: Congressional Research Service (CRS 2014b, 2014c); Census for US state benets and wages; Department of
Labor for minimum wages; OECD database on benets and wages for EA-10
parents with two children would receive.22 This suggests that unemployment
benets underpin reservation wages in the primary labor market (minimum
wages are lower than temporary unemployment benets), while the min-
imum wage sets a oor in the secondary labor market (which may be evaded,
for instance by self-employment) since it tends to be higher than social
assistance.
Eligibility for cash benets is tightly administered by US states. As regards
unemployment benets, part-time and discontinuous workers often do not
meet the requirements of minimum earnings and continuity of employment,
even though employers pay earmarked social security taxes for every regular
employee. Unemployment must be involuntary, which is a major reason for
legal disputes (Baicker et al. 1998: 231). Firms have an incentive to make the
worker quit voluntarily because of so-called experience rating, which means
rms must pay more contributions if they use the insurance more frequently by
laying off employees (CRS 2014c: 3). As a consequence of all these restrictions
(duration, eligibility criteria, experience rating), the coverage of unemployment
22
As of 201213, the minimum wage in thirty-four US states was higher than social assistance
and lower than unemployment benets, all measured as a share of the average wage in a state. In
four states it was lower than unemployment benets and equal to social assistance for a lone parent
with two children. Six states had a minimum wage that was lower than both transfer incomes.
245
benets has been eroded: by the 2000s only about a third of all job losers
received unemployment benets, compared to two-thirds in the mid-1970s.
The rates are as low as 10 percent for those exiting and re-entering the labor
market (Vroman 2009: table 3), while the coverage rate can go up as high as 50
percent in a recession, although benet levels tend to be reduced in recessions.
In the EA-10, only Italy has a lower unemployment benet recipiency rate
(33 percent) than the US (37 percent). Others are above OECD average, topped
by Germany and Austria with over 90 per cent.23 Similarly, means-tested social
assistance for lone parents, TANF, is subject to strict limits. Federal law sets
maxima for federally funded assistance of ve years over a lifetime, and some
states have shorter limits (Farrell et al. 2008: ES-1). No EA-10 country has
lifetime limits for receiving social assistance.
There is a lot of variation between US states. Unemployment benets tend
to be more diverse between US states than the means-tested TANF and SNAP
benets, which have converged to a very low level. The median benet leaves
a family of three in serious poverty, as the federal poverty level was $1,591 in
2012 (CRS 2014b: table A-5). In the EA-10, it is the other way round: as a
share of average wages in a state, unemployment benets are in a more similar
range than social assistance. Some states have no social assistance for some
groups (e.g. Italy for young unemployed without previous insurance), while
others have assistance levels that are comparable with insurance benets (e.g.
Ireland, for those with children).
The fact that US states have converged on a low level and EA-10 states have
widely differing benet levels for poor households can be seen as supporting
evidence by those who fear a race to the bottom in closely integrated welfare
states. After all, US states have to pay non-contributory benets to every
resident citizen while in the EA-10, non-national EU citizens are subject to
residency requirements if they have never been employed. If they are
employed at a low wage, EU nationals are eligible for social assistance, and
benets vary widely. But the pattern of decline in social assistance levels in the
US does not support the inference that intra-US migration produces a race to
the bottom. Cuts have been most intense in recent years as the political
climate generally has become more hostile to welfare. Reforms giving
more discretion to states have encouraged them to shift costs onto the federal
government by cutting TANF and promoting the use of federally nanced
EITC and SNAP (Baicker et al. 1998: 2345; CRS 2014b: 913).
Reservation wage levels are thus lower in the US than in the EA-10: those
who cannot nd work in the primary labor market are forced to accept work at
minimum wages that are very low compared to average wages. The alternative
23
Figures are for 20078 (OECD 2011: g. 0.9). No data available for Portugal.
246
of an income from social transfers is low, even compared to federal poverty

standards, and very restricted in duration. In the present context, this means
that US citizens who are internal migrants enjoy effectively less risk sharing
with others in their place of residence than mobile EU nationals. This is not
due to citizenship rights but less generous safety nets in the US welfare state.
COMPETITION FROM IMPORTED SERVICES

High reservation wage levels can come under pressure from the import of
services, whereby services are provided remotely or by workers temporarily
engaged in another (host) state. In the EU, this is known as posting of
workers. For example, a construction contract may be won by an out-of-state
provider, which brings in its own cheaper workforce and undercuts the wages
of resident construction workers. Thus trade in services can have pronounced
effects on labor market regulation.
In the US, the notion of posting is not common so rules apply to any
worker engaged in interstate commerce: the federal minimum wage or state
minimum wages apply to those workers, whichever is higher.24 This seems to
extend to workers from a state where the minimum wage is set at the federal
minimum when s/he provides services in another state with a higher state
minimum. Labor standards are otherwise highly federalized but also minimal.
For instance, only eight states have statutory paid rest periods and they are
also the ones that have minimum meal periods. State labor legislation is much
less dense and does not cover issues like holidays and paid sickness or mater-
nity leave.
In the EU, the Posted Workers Directive 96/71/EC regulates the situation
where rms from one member state send their employees for a limited amount
of time to another in order to provide a service. This Directive was for a long
time one of the most neglected of the modern social policy instruments of
the Community (Davies 2002: 298). Its legal basis is legislation on the
freedom of services, yet the preamble of the Directive, and case law referring
to it, are explicit about its purpose of protecting both resident and posted
workers who are EU nationals in the host country. Hence, the Directive
stipulates in Artcle 3(1) that a set of host state rules, such as working time,
holiday entitlements, and minimum pay, must apply in the employment of a
worker temporarily posted to another EU member state.25 The applicable
minimum wage can be set by the state or by collective agreement (which
24
This is according to information on the US Department of Labor website at https://www.
dol.gov/whd/minimumwage.htm and https://www.dol.gov/whd/state/state.htm (accessed
August 15, 2016).
25
The list enumerates eight terms and conditions of employment, the others concern the
supply of workers by temping agencies, health and safety at the workplace, protection of
pregnant workers, and non-discrimination principles.
247
tends to be higher) as long as the latter is universally applicable. Home state or

country-of-origin rules on these specied terms and conditions of employment
must be applied only if they are more favorable to the worker (Article 3(7)), a
clause that was inserted at the insistence of Germany (Barnard 2009: 127).
While the Posted Workers Directive was introduced to protect workers
under the freedom of services, it came to be seen as the judicial vehicle for
economic freedoms destroying collective bargaining institutions, the pillar of
a well-regulated primary labor market (Joerges and Rdl 2008; Hpner 2009;
Kilpatrick 2009b). In a series of Court cases, starting with Laval C-341/05, the
European Court of Justice ruled that national competences such as employ-
ment law must be subject to compliance with economic freedoms. It also
stipulated that this obligation, originally addressed to governments, applies
to disputes between non-state actors such as trade unions and rms. The
Court held that certain strike actions by trade unions were a disproportionate
infringement of economic freedoms in the internal market. Critical scholars
have argued that the judgments restrict the national exercise of rights that the
Community has no competence to regulate, putting social rights on the back
foot, having to defend themselves from the economic (Barnard 2008: 264).
An alternative interpretation to this clash of social versus economic is that the
EU tries to construct a transnational market for services, different from the
market for shirts but also different from that for resident labor (Schelkle 2011).
The Posted Workers Directive was introduced in the aftermath of Southern
enlargement to Spain and Portugal in 1986, at the initiative of major destin-
ation countries. It went against the trend in international trade negotiations,
which was to reduce non-tariff barriers such as host state rules on foreign
service providers.26 All EU members had signed the Rome Convention by
1991,27 which declared the home state or country of origin principle to be
the default option for the employment contracts of workers that provide
services in person to another country (Barnard 2009: 1235). With Eastern
enlargement in 2004, the posting of workers became a more noticeable source
of competition in services. This was not only because this extension to the
East increased the dispersion of income levels in the Union, but also because
the freedom of movement of workers was restricted by many existing member
states for up to seven years, as was allowed under transitional accession rules
to prevent undue disruption to domestic labor markets. Freedom to provide
26
The General Agreement on Trade in Services came into effect in 1995, a year before the EU
legislation on posted workers. The Agreement stipulates a national treatment obligation under
Artcle XVII; once a member gives market access to foreign service providers of another member,
national treatment really amounts to applying the home state rules so as not to impair the
competitive position of the foreign service supplier (Herwig 2008: 1819).
27
The 1980 Rome Convention on the law applicable to contractual obligations has been
included in EU law (Ofcial Journal C 027, 26/01/1998 P. 00340046).
248
services was a way around restrictions on free movement of workers. More-

over, throughout the 1990s governments all over Europe announced labor
market reforms that made benet payments increasingly conditional on work
and thus lowered the reservation wage of the unemployed. Due to these
reforms, the boundaries of the primary labor market became less well dened
and competition for jobs in secondary labor markets more intense, even
without migration. The Court thus adjudicated the lines in the sand between
economic freedoms and social rights of workers in a political environment
where destination countries had become more assertive in protecting labor
from outside competition while simultaneously challenging safety nets with
activating reforms at home.
The Posted Workers Directive, and the court cases it triggered,28 shows that
EU regulation, just like a national welfare state, controls the space of second-
ary labor markets as well as the boundaries of primary labor markets. The
Directive rules that temporary workers service providers must at least be given
the nationally dened minimum of employment laws. It determines how
much primary labor markets can sustain a clearly dened risk pool where
this minimum is exceeded and more generous insurance benets are reserved
to its members, typically due to the strength of industrial relations. In the US,
the federal minimum sets a standard that can be exceeded, similar to EU
harmonization in goods markets (but not labor markets). This minimum is
normally not binding on workers in the primary labor market as minimum
wage levels (and other provisions) are quite low.
COMPETITION FROM SELF-EMPLOYMENT

Workers who cannot nd a job even in the secondary labor market or try to
escape it may be driven into self-employment at an hourly income that is below
the minimum wage. With social assistance and perhaps tax credits as the only
social safety net,29 self-employed providers of services may undercut services
provided by regular employees. EU regulation now entitles self-employed
migrants to the same tax advantages and benets that self-employed nationals
get, such as child benets. But rules on the (ex-)portability of benets for
workers were extended to self-employed migrants with considerable delay
(Baldoni 2003: 8, 13), typically through court rulings that obliged member
states to adopt equal treatment. Even so, in most member states, the self-
employed are at a disadvantage when it comes to social protection. They either
28
For helpful analyses by lawyers, see in particular Barnard 2008, 2009; A. Davies 2008; P. Davies
2008; Kilpatrick 2009a, 2009b; and Reich 2008.
29
There are a few exceptions. For instance, in Germany self-employed individuals can join
unemployment insurance voluntarily which they can claim in case they go out of business. In
Italy and Spain, unemployed workers can take out their maximum benets as a lump sum if they
start up a business (EEO 2010: 1821).
249
pay higher social security contributions for the same benets, or they receive
lower benets, for instance in terms of maternity leave or pensions, because
they can opt out of some parts of the social security system (EEO 2010).
Licensing of professions can establish certain standards and career proles
that make self-employment less prone to self-exploitation and less prone to
undercut the conditions under which wage-dependent labor provides the
same services. Licenses for hairdressers and barbers, providers of funeral ser-
vices, and personal trainers in tness studios can be seen in this light. In the
US, about fty professions are licensed at the state level, typically by private
associations. This creates barriers to mobility, albeit often readily surmount-
able: for example, a hairdresser who qualied in one state must pass an
examination if s/he moves to another state (USNEI 2007). The onus is on
the migrant to prove that s/he has the necessary aptitude.
In EU parlance, there is no mutual recognition of professional qualica-
tions, even for US citizens. Nor does it exist in the EU. The European Com-
mission has long fought for mutual recognition of qualications, against the
resistance of national professional associations. Mutual recognition means in
this context that a qualication obtained in one member state must be
accepted in another member state. Secondary legislation, in particular Direct-
ive 2005/36/EC on the free movement of professionals, puts down three
principles. First, there is qualied mutual recognition of qualications, mean-
ing that the host state can request an aptitude test or a probation period when
national requirements do not t the general system of qualications (Dir-
ective 2005/36 Article 13). Second, there is unqualied mutual recognition of
experience in the crafts, commerce, and industry; so a hairdresser who has
practiced for three to ve years in the home state would be able to do so in
another member state without further proof of qualications (Directive 2005/
36 Article 16). And third, there is mutual recognition and partial harmoniza-
tion with respect to specic sectors, such as medical professions and archi-
tects, for which EU law has laid down minimum requirements for training and
curricula. The obstacles to free movement of professionals are, in legal terms,
not higher in the EU than in the US: qualications have to be either accepted
or if restricted, national education systems must adapt. The burden of proof
that national licensing is in the public interest is on the host states and they
are required to adapt national requirements.
The overall comparison with the US provides a differentiated picture of
social rights of economic migrants and thus of the scope of this form of risk
sharing within the two monetary unions (Table 8.3). The rows compare the
two monetary unions while the columns compare conditions for wage labor
and self-employment, and summarize the implications for dualization.
At rst sight, risk sharing through social rights for migrant workers seems to
be surprisingly similar in the two monetary unions. Differences can be seen in
250
Table 8.3. Summary of rules for risk sharing between internal economic migrants and host
states
Workers Self-employed persons Dualism/effect on host

state labor market
Euro Area-10 Non-discrimination and Qualied mutual Reservation wage levels

(e.g. EU citizen exportability of recognition of are comparatively high;
from Spain to contributory benets; qualications; full mutual standards for self-
Germany) restricted competition recognition of experience employment are partly
from posted workers in vocational skills deregulated
United States Non-discrimination and No mutual recognition of Reservation wage levels
(e.g. US citizen exportability of qualications for about are comparatively low;
from Missouri contributory benets; fty professions; standards for self-
to unrestricted competition licensing requirements for employment are state-
Massachusetts) from out-of-state service vocational skills at state regulated
providers level
Risk sharing More risk sharing with More risk sharing with Dualism more tightly
between host state in EA-10: more host state in EA-10 due to controlled for workers in
internal generous entitlements easier access at acquired EA-10, less so for self-
migrant and and some protection qualications employed; the other way
host state from posted workers round in the US
Source: see references in the text
the following: rst, the EA-10 set a higher reservation wage simply because its
constituent welfare states are more generous. This may make labor markets in
Europe less absorbent, increasing the risk of exclusion through unemploy-
ment, however. The net effect on risk sharing is therefore ambiguous and
depends on the worker nding regular employment. As regards, second, the
ability to compete with resident workers, an internal migrant in the US is only
restricted by a fairly uniform minimum wage level but employment practices
can vary widely, given that there are few other employment regulations; the
Posted Workers Directive covers more minimum standards but minimum pay
can vary widely and be much closer to the median wage, especially if set in
collective agreements. Finally, the alternative of self-employment is to some
extent restricted in both unions; in the US by state licenses for many profes-
sions that do not provide massive hurdles and in the EA-10 by harmonized
professional standards that the EU Commission has for a long time tried to
bring down.
8.3 Interstate Risk Sharing through Free Movement

in a Monetary Union
This section asks to what extent the cross-border movements of individuals in

search of economic opportunities can help EA member statesin contrast to
individualsto diversify and share risks of its member states. The risks are, on
251
the one hand, temporary downturns in one region but not others, to which
temporary migration would be a pertinent response. The nancial crisis since
2008 was a massive shock to employment in some member states that allows
us to assess how regions adjust through temporary migration. On the other
hand, the risk may be inherent in the longer-term growth potential: a low-
income region has a high growth potential but the road to realizing it may be
bumpy and full of ups and downs, compared to a high-income region with a
diminishing growth potential.30 Migration ows can be attracted by high
living standards, as in Northern Europe, or by dynamic growth, as in Spain
and Greece before the crisis. The question is whether migration can conceiv-
ably help poorer member states to catch up and stabilize demand in richer
member states through growing markets, internally and abroad. We might
expect temporary migration responses to be limited, because of the sheer cost
of moving to another state, which can be an obstacle even in the US (Gruber
and Madrian 2002: 229).
8.3.1 Sharing the Risk of Economic Fluctuations?

The crisis since 2007 (in the US) and 2008 (in Europe) was a systemic and in
this sense common shock (Section 6.2.3), yet the secondary effects on labor
markets were uneven, not least because welfare states mitigated the ensuing
instability differently. So the incidence was idiosyncratic which allows us to
observe labor mobility as an adjustment mechanism. Laid-off workers could
move elsewhere and nd employment; if their families stayed behind migra-
tion could stabilize regional income through remittances.
Before the crisis, the path-breaking study by Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1991),
conrmed by Asdrubali et al. (1996), had established the ballpark gure for the
stabilization effect of migration. It found that, in the US, interstate migration
reduced the impact of a states output shock on household income by 3
percent at most. Recent work on the evolution of internal labor mobility in
the US suggests that the contribution has if anything tended to fall (Molloy
et al. 2014). Interstate migration has declined since the 1980s, reversing the
upward trend earlier in the twentieth century. Various explanations have been
put forward, such as the compositional change of the workforce (aging,
increasing homeownership) and increased costs of migration.31 Molloy et al.
30
A diminishing growth potential is largely deterministic: a constant annual growth rate means
exponential growth of the base and this would run into resource constraints. In capitalist
economies, resource constraints are signaled by upward price pressures that make investors
withdraw as their prots decline.
31
This was a live issue in the debate about health-care reform under the Obama administration
since increasing costs of changing health insurers can create a lock-in effect (Garthwaite
et al. 2013).
252
(2014) and Dao et al. (2014) suggest that lower US mobility could be a signal
that labor markets are actually functioning better: there might be better
matches between employers and employees to begin with, and employees
might be promoted within rms instead of having to change jobs to advance
careers. In short, low or declining labor mobility can have many causes and
they are not necessarily worrying.
Has the crisis made a difference? A ne-grained OECD study looks at net
migration ows between 2005 and 2012, comparing European regions (NUTS-
1 and -2 levels)32 and US states and areas (states and public use microdata areas
comparable to NUTS-2). They estimate the level of net ows produced by
changes in unemployment and income differentials (Jauer et al. 2014: para.
23). The results are remarkable: the migration response to the crisis has been
considerable in Europe, in contrast to the United States where the crisis and
subsequent sluggish recovery were not accompanied by greater interregional
labour mobility in reaction to labour market shocks (Jauer et al. 2014: 5).
When the researchers split their time series between pre- and post-crisis
periods, they nd the familiar result that pre-crisis labor mobility in response
to region-specic labor market shocks was stronger in the United States than
in Europe. With the onset of the crisis, however, Europe showed a stronger
interregional adjustment reaction than the United States (Jauer et al. 2014:
para. 32). The estimates suggest that up to about a quarter of the asymmetric
labour market shock [in Europe] would be absorbed by migration within a
year (Jauer et al. 2014: 5, para. 31). The authors note that this is an upper
bound estimate, assuming that all measured population changes in Europe
were due to migration for employment purposes. By contrast, Dao et al. (2014:
1921) do not conrm that the internal migration in the EA is higher than in
the US but they do conrm that the former is rising and the latter is declining.
There is a twist, however: this rise in mobility is not due to intra-EA ows
but to migration from the new EU member states outside the EA and from
third countries (Jauer et al. 2014: para 33). Labor mobility is therefore, strictly
speaking, not an adjustment mechanism of the monetary union but a conse-
quence of free movement in the internal market, as the readiness to move is
much higher in the new member states in Central and Eastern Europe (Dao
et al. 2014: 21; Atoyan et al. 2016: para. 2). By contrast, Beine et al. (2013) argue
that there is a statistically signicant effect of EA membership on temporary
migration: they estimate that over 17 percent of the increase in migration
between member states since 1999 was due to the common currency. Yet the
32
NUTS is the French acronym for the Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics and is the
EUs own delineation of regions. The main reason is that NUTS-2 regions are the recipients of
regional funds. NUTS-1 regions, as of 2013, should have between 3 million and 7 million
inhabitants, NUTS-2 between 800,000 and 3 million, NUTS-3 regions between 150,000 and
800,000. Source: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/nuts/overview (accessed December 29, 2015).
253
numbers accounted for by this common currency effect, for instance between
the Netherlands and Belgium or Germany and Italy, are in the four digits
(1,000 and 1,500 migrants per annum, respectively). This seems hardly
enough to support the claim that the inception of the Euro made Europe
closer to an Optimum Currency Area (Beine et al. 2013: 21).
Given that the effect on destination countries is rather small, what is the
effect on the countries of origin? Table 8.4 looks at the socio-economic char-
acteristics of recent migrants (Migrants column) and how they compare to
their immobile peers in the country of origin. A positive number in the Diff
column means that the mobile population has a higher share in this charac-
teristic than their compatriots left behind. It cannot be read as a probability
though, as the notes to Table 8.4 explain.
The migrants considered are those subject to free movement of persons:
they came from and went to EU-27/European Free Trade Area countries or
moved within the US, respectively. The comparison with their socio-
economic characteristics in the previous year allows us to draw some infer-
ences about the effect on the origin country. The rst two pairs of columns
show net emigration countries in 2011/12; this marks quite a turnaround
since the Southern Europe four (Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) were net
immigration countries before the crisis. By comparing employment and
unemployment rates in 2011/12 and a year before, we can see that migrants
from the new member states and Southern Europe had different characteris-
tics before they migrated: in CEE, they were more likely to be unemployed
Table 8.4. Characteristics of recent free movement migrants compared with natives of the
origin region (1564 years), 2011 and 2012
In % New member Southern Euro area United States

states (CEE) Europe in EA (2011)
Migrants Diff Migrants Diff Migrants Diff Migrants Diff
Employment rate 71 +10 59 +2 60 4 52 11

Employment rate one year ago 61 0 51 6 58 5 76 +3
Unemployment rate 8 2 15 0 16 +6 18 +7
Unemployment rate one year ago 13 +2 15 4 9 3 12 +1
Share of young (2034) 70 +38 59 +30 58 +30 50 +20
Share of highly educated 28 +8 41 +20 41 +16 39 +6
Share of highly skilled employed 17 19 49 +12 50 +8 25 0
Note: The Migrants and Diff gures combined allow us to infer the share of the native population in this characteristic. To
take the new member states and their employment rate: if 71 percent of recent migrants from the EU-10 are employed
and the difference to their immobile peers is +10 percent, then the employment rate of the residents in the new member
states is 61 percent. The difference needs to be transformed before it can be read as a probability: for instance, the
unemployment rate of CEE migrants after moving was 8 percent which is 2 percent lower (Diff) than for immobile peers.
This means a CEE migrant had a 20 percent better chance (2 relative to 10 percent) of escaping unemployment than
those left behind.
Source: OECD from Jauer et al. (2014: table 1)
254
while the Southern European migrants were less likely to be unemployed.33

CEE migrants succeeded in becoming employed in their host state; much
more so than Southern Europeans. Both groups of migrants improved their
(un)employment situation compared to a year before. In both groups of
countries, migration drains countries of their younger and better-educated
citizens; for the new member states (mainly outside the EA), migration does
however offer these groups the prospect of nding employment, and with it
perhaps the potential to raise their skills. A more recent IMF study conrms
age bias and the brain drain phenomenon for CEE countries (Atoyan et al.
2016: paras 1114) and adds that remittances are signicant for some smaller
countries like Latvia.
The last two pairs of columns in Table 8.4 show the pattern of intra-EA and
intra-US migration. Interstate migrants in both the EA-17 and the USA do not
improve their employment or unemployment situation by migrating, com-
pared to their immobile peers. This may reect the youth bias among
migrants, given that youth unemployment rates are relatively higher and
some migration may be related to studying. Brain drain is an issue in the EA
as indicated by the overrepresentation of the highly educated and the highly
skilled among migrants compared with non-migrants in the EA origin coun-
tries. In the US, brain drain played less of a role.
Remittances can compensate home countries for the loss of younger and
more educated workers. There is a debate whether remittances rise with the
education level of migrants: Schiopu and Siegfried (2006: 20) nd this positive
association for European migrants while Faini (2007) does not. Remittances
tend to be higher if migrants intend to move abroad only temporarily
(Dustmann and Grlach 2015: 357). The sums involved can be quite sub-
stantial but, again, intra-EA amounts are small compared to ows between the
EA and its neighboring countries. In the early 2000s, about 85 percent of
remittances to Romania were sent by nationals working in the EA, which
amounted overall to about 3.6 percent of GDP and exceeded the amount
that the country received by way of foreign direct investment (Schiopu and
Siegfried 2006: 7).
In summary, recent research suggests that the short-term response of Euro-
pean migrants to the crisis was noticeable and in the expected counter-cyclical
direction. But Table 8.4 also shows that even temporary migration is risky.
There is no guarantee that newly arriving migrants will nd a job despite the
likelihood that they will accept sub-standard working and living conditions.
Immediate access to social security is therefore an important risk-sharing
33
But Southern Europeans were also less likely to be employed which is less contradictory than
it sounds as there is also the category of non-employed (left out for reasons of space), e.g. people
who care for children and thus are neither employed nor registered unemployed.
255
mechanism provided by free movement. It gives individuals a chance to

improve their economic situation, although the gain for their home countries
is less certain.
The time horizon of migrants makes an important difference for the mem-
ber states involved. Theory and an emerging body of evidence suggest that
temporary migration is more benecial for origin countries while the behavior
of permanent migrants increases the benets to the destination state
(Dustmann and Grlach 2015: 3742, with further references). Migrants
who intend to stay only for a limited time are more likely to underbid prevail-
ing standards of employment and pay. They also invest less in their language
and skills acquisition, and save more out of any given income because they
send higher remittances, so as to sustain family members back home. This has
a negative demand effect on the destination economy (Dustmann and
Grlach 2015: 30, 42). Empirically, only a fth of all migrants to the classically
Anglophone immigration countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the
US) leave their destination country within the rst ten years while half of all
migrants to and in Europe do so (Dustmann and Grlach 2015: 23), although
research by the IMF suggests that this is not true for migration from the new
member states where return migration (brain gain) is extremely low (Atoyan
et al. 2016: para. 15). Migrant employment in some EA countries is weighted
towards long stayers: more than 60 percent of employed migrants in 2007 had
been there for at least ten years in Austria, Belgium, and Portugal, a share rising
to almost 80 percent in France, Germany, and the Netherlands (OECD 2009:
table I.2). By contrast, Ireland, Italy, and Spain had predominantly temporary
migrants in the sense that more than half of those employed had been in the
country for less than a decade.
Rules on the portability of benets could affect the distribution of gains
from migration across sending and receiving states. EU rules for coordinating
social security have made pension benets highly portable. In the US, a
national social security system has the same effect. Compared to unregulated
or devolved social security, this benets migrants state of origin if they choose
to return home on retirement. While perhaps a surprising antidote to the
Matthew principle in migration patterns (to those that have shall be
given), facilitation of return migration might reect resistance to immigra-
tion in destination countries, whether temporary or permanent (Burgoon
2014: 3678).
8.3.2 Sharing the Risk of Income Divergence?

Outside the specialist OCA literature, economic migration is studied as a
potential vehicle for reducing differences in living standards between coun-
tries. In terms of the conceptual framework outlined in Chapter 3, economic
256
migrants are taking risks in order to increase the return from employment. The
question for a study of monetary integration is whether this risk-return trade-
off can be exploited at the level of regions or member states: does migration
advance income convergence between them?
Convergence is what neoclassical growth theory would lead one to expect:
factors of production move to where they are scarcest as they will be paid
accordingly. Hence, labor moves to resource-abundant or capital-rich regions,
bringing down the price of labor services there, raising wages in the state
of origin.34 Yet, this view of equilibrating ows, leading to an equalization
of living standards across open economies, contrasts with the experience of
agglomeration and urbanization over the twentieth century. The urban popu-
lation has increased by a factor of more than twelve while world population
has grown only fourfold (Ozgen et al. 2010: 537). This suggests that people
move to where other people are. Cities are not necessarily capital-rich, as
industry tends to move out from city centers, but they provide the market
size and the infrastructure that allows for innite specialization and a niche
for every type of service. Positive externalities of agglomeration can trump the
negative externalities of congestion: in industries such as fashion and infor-
mation technology, close personal interaction is likely to be an ingredient of
innovation. This gives rise to endogenous growth that is cumulative: growth
feeds on growth. Migration can be attracted by growth, and in turn sustains it.
But such endogeneity makes it more likely that regional income levels diverge.
So what is the evidence about the role of migration in income convergence
in the EA and in the US in normal times, before the 2008 crisis? This simple
question does not have a straightforward answer. First of all, reliable data on
internal migration are very hard to get. Moreover, studies are less likely to be
published if they come to the plausible conclusion that migration has no
signicant impact on growth in OECD countries because ows, even intern-
ally, are simply too small (Balli et al. 2011). Academic publication practices are
biased against non-ndings, however sound the underlying research. Ozgen
et al. (2010) undertake a meta-analysis of sixty-seven estimates, some of them
published in mainstream outlets, others in working papers, most of which
have been published only since the early 2000s. They cover European coun-
tries as well as the US. The short answer to the question of what internal
migration does to growth in receiving countries is: of the sixty-seven studies,
twenty-seven nd a statistically signicant positive effect on growth while
two studies nd a negative effect, signicant at the 5 percent level (Ozgen et al.
34
Barro and Sala-i-Martin (2003) contains an up-to-date discussion of neoclassical growth
theory and how it should be empirically assessed. Strictly speaking, convergence results only in
the simple textbook model where economies use the same rst-best technology and the world is
populated by a clone of the representative household, all having the same taste.
257
2010: g. 1). The median estimate is 0.18 which means that a 1 percent rise in
net internal migration raises growth by about 0.2 percent. Even so, this meta-
analysis also tells us that more than half of all studies cannot nd a statistically
signicant effect.
An analysis that covers both internal and cross-border migration, and dif-
ferentiates the effects on growth in immigration and emigration regions, can
be found in Huber and Tondl (2012). They cover NUTS-2 regions from the EU-
27 and European Free Trade Area during 20007: the period from the intro-
duction of the new currency in twelve EU countries until the year before the
crisis broke out in Europe. They nd a positive impact of both internal and
international net immigration on GDP per capita and on productivity, while
there was no signicant effect on unemployment. In the rst year, the effect is
a 0.02 increase in growth and productivity for a 1 percent increase in net
immigration which amounts in the long term to a 0.44 percent income
growth and 0.20 percent productivity growth. The snag is that this is sym-
metrical: a 1 percent increase in emigration has a very similar negative effect
on GDP per capita and on productivity, in the short and long run. Migration
seems to be a zero-sum game. Moreover, immigration regions are typically
richer regions and emigration regions poorer, so this would suggest income
divergence (Stiglitz 2016: 134). Huber and Tondl (2012: 454) qualify this,
since they also nd income convergence between NUTS-2 regions during
20007, even when controlling for the reverse causation that migrants may
be attracted to regions that already grow faster. Migration seems to have
slowed down convergence in Europe during 20007, but did not trump the
higher growth dynamic of poorer regions.
These ndings can be illustrated with the smaller sample of the NUTS-2
regions in the EA-10. Figure 8.4 plots the level of GDP per capita at the outset,
in 2000, against the growth rate over the following years. GDP here is meas-
ured in purchasing power standard euros, taking into account that lower
incomes in poorer regions do buy more goods and services (services in par-
ticular). Convergence would imply a negative correlation between the two
and this is what Figure 8.4 shows.35
The effect is weak, however. It is driven by a few high-income regions that
experienced weak growth and vice versa. The most extreme case is the capital
region around Brusselswith the top regional income but a cumulative
decline of 35 percent between 2000 and 2007. The same (high-income levels
combined with poor growth) holds for Vienna and a number of Italian
regions. In turn, some of the poorest regions in the EA-10 experienced high
growth, notably three Spanish and two east German regions.
35
The low coefcient of -0.0007 is due to the dimensions of the x and y axes (thousands plotted
against percentages).
258
30.00
20.00
y = 0.0007x + 12.285
10.00
GDP growth 20007
R2 = 0.2336
0.00
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
GDP per capita level, 2000 (in purchasing power standards)
Figure 8.4. Correlation of regional income levels and growth rates, 20007
It was mentioned in the introduction that migrants may be attracted by

higher income levels or by higher growth rates. In fast-growing regions,
migrants can help to alleviate bottlenecks and thus nd it easier to get
employment, while in rich regions they may get better employment, but
they may have to wait (resulting in unemployment) or accept inferior condi-
tions, increasing wage inequality. Unsurprisingly, there was no dominant
driver of net migration, income growth, or income levels in the early years
of the monetary union. Figure 8.5 shows along the horizontal axes the growth
rate and the level, respectively, of GDP in NUTS-2 regions in the EA-10 (again
in purchasing power standard euros). The vertical axes show the cumulative
net migration, as share of the regional population, that NUTS-2 regions
experienced between 2003 and 2007.
We can see that there is no discernible relationship between the indicators
on the two axes; the regression line is at while it should be positive if income
growth or income level were signicant drivers. It is possible that controlling
for other intervening variables or a different choice of determinant would
change that. For instance, Beine et al. (2013: 20) nd a robust response of
bilateral migration ows to the wage ratio between a European destination
and a European origin country: a 10 percent increase leads to an 8.5 percent
increase in the migration ow. At the regional level, we cannot nd a positive
relationship between GDP per capita and migration (in the right-hand panel)
although GDP per capita and wage levels should be closely correlated. Most
EA-10 regions experienced net immigration over these years (115 out of 145)
due to inows from elsewhere in the EU and third countries. Spanish regions
experienced the highest immigration; some French and Italian regions also
259
30.0 30.0
25.0 y = 0.0487x + 4.3763 25.0
Net migration, 20037

Net migration, 20037
R2 = 0.0045
20.0 20.0 y = 9E05x + 2.6389
15.0 15.0 R2 = 0.0064
10.0 10.0
5.0 5.0
0.0 0.0
40.00 20.00 5.0 0.00 20.00 40.00 5.0 0 20000 40000 60000
10.0 10.0
Regional GDP per capita growth, 20007 Regional GDP per capita
(purchasing power standards), 2000
Figure 8.5. Correlation between migration rates and regional income growth and
level, 20007
Source: Eurostat; the French outer territories of Guadaloupe, Martinique, and Guyane were
excluded
experienced double-digit net immigration. The exceptional emigration

regions were in peripheral Finland, northern France, eastern Germany, and
in southern Italy. Thus France and Italy include both immigration and emi-
gration regions, pointing to considerable intranational movement. In most of
the net emigration regions, negative growth and, in national comparison, low
income levels combined to push people out. This again conrms that weak
convergence, as in the EA-10 between 2000 and 2007, makes income levels
and income growth point to different destinations.
As regards the US, Barro and Sala-i-Martin (2003: 4925) did not nd that
interregional migration played a role in bringing about convergence in state
incomes.36 This is all the more signicant as they looked at ows between
1920 and 1990 when internal labor mobility was higher than after 1990. The
few recent studies that look into convergence of US state income and migra-
tion come to compatible, if somewhat rened, results. DiCecio and Gascon
(2010) use a method that allows them to dig deeper into the pattern of long-
term regional convergence. They nd that US state incomes actually diverge
but that thanks to migration to metropolitan areas, there is income conver-
gence across people. This convergence across people is driven by the fact that
states climbing ranks in the distribution of income are also attracting a larger
share of the population (DiCecio and Gascon 2010: 276). Urbanization and
not migration per se drives this process. This nding resonates with the
argument of this chapter: free movement is a risk-sharing channel for indi-
viduals but not for states or regions. It may actually precipitate a regions
decline and divergence within a union.
36
Nor do Barro and Sala-i-Martin (2003) nd an effect of migration on regional income
convergence in Japan and ve large European countries.
260
8.4 Free Movement and the Political Economy

of Labor Market Integration
This chapter has argued that migration in response to temporary downturns is

quantitatively too small for it to be macroeconomically signicant, even in the
US. In fact, migration responses are not even reliably counter-cyclical as the
transaction costs of moving can trump the incentives to move in a recession
(OECD 2009: chart I.6). The efcacy of migration as a risk-sharing mechanism
for existing income differences is also limited by migrants self-selection: they
are on average much younger and better educated, if not necessarily more
skilled, than their fellow citizens in the home state (see Table 8.4, based on
Jauer et al. 2014). The benets of this selection bias accrue mainly to already
better-off destination states. This does not share but increases the risk from
regional income divergence and associated growth potential.
Such adverse distribution and insurance effects at the state level are not an
inherent, deterministic feature. In a union of comparatively well-off member
states, the welfare state is not a barrier to risk sharing through mobility but can
be its vehicle. Free movement includes migrants in the risk pool of the tax-
transfer system in the destination state in that it guarantees, more or less
conditionally, equal treatment with long-term residents. If the majority of
migrants were unemployed at home, their move would come at little oppor-
tunity cost to the tax-transfer system they leave. Yet this is empirically not the
case: regular economic migrants are not the most desperate and must have the
self-condence that they have something to offer in order to take the step and
uproot themselves (Collier 2013: 38). An alternative benign scenario ensues if,
in a converging union, migrants moved primarily to fast-growing rather than
rich member states. This could alleviate bottlenecks and thus sustain their
catching-up process. But again, there is not much evidence that this was a
dominant trend before the crisis (Figure 8.5, left-hand panel). Moreover, high
growth also attracts capital ows that may trump any stabilizing effect of
migration on prices and competitiveness.
This chapter has also argued that free movement is not an economic free-
dom opposed to social rights, but is itself a social right. The more rule-based
the integration process is, the more it resembles an insurance mechanism, as
the rules specify ex ante what the criteria for claiming the insurance of
immigration are. This insurance gives individuals the opportunity to escape
the bad luck of a temporary downturn or the more permanent state of being
born in a poorer region of a union. In principle, social rights for migrants work
both ways: they uphold standards to protect migrants but they are also a
demand on migrants to justify these standards with the value they add. The
latter aspect also protects domestic workers. Minimum wages, underpinned by
a right to social assistance, have this character.
261
The politically tricky issue is, however, that these standards may be so high
that they are hard to meet by migrants and some resident workers. This
nurtures, rightly or wrongly, the belief that immigration poses a net scal
burden due to unemployment or poverty. According to Brian Burgoons
intricate study, this belief concerns a majority of voters in twenty-two Euro-
pean countries, surveyed ve times between 2002 and 2010, more than issues
related to multiculturalism. The consequence is less support for redistribu-
tion: economic nonintegration is more relevant to welfare state politics than
is sociocultural nonintegration, and the mechanism by which this is so
involves concerns about scal costs (Burgoon 2014: 397). It is as if the
political-economic paradox of diversity catches up with the welfare state:
while integration can help to reap the benets of migration, the welfare
state is also the rst political target if difculties of integration show up on
its balance sheet.
The recent move to the activating welfare state may have been, at least
partly, a response to this scal concern but also made the problem worse. The
cut in non-employment benets, such as unemployment insurance and
disability benets, in favor of in-work subsidies such as tax credits incentiv-
izes workers to accept any job: employment creates the entitlement and the
after-tax-transfer income will be the same, regardless of the market wage
employers pay. This intensies competition for low-income jobs; and immi-
grants may accept harsher employment practices, like overtime and uncon-
ventional working hours, than resident workers with families and social
norms that militate against these practices. Activation policies make employ-
ment of low-wage workers a scal burden, to the benet of private rms.
In-work benets, such as wage subsidies or child benets for low-income
households, do not establish a reservation wage but actually allow low
wages to fall further without raising the resistance of workers and organized
labor. Policy debates about a social minimum wage or the living wage in
Germany and the UK already reect this concern that the social security
system is exploited by the worst employers (Mabbett 2016: 12412, on
Germany). Activation policies thus create a new dualism although they
shift some of the risk that (resident and immigrant) low-wage workers bear
privately to taxpayers.
Either way, dualism separates the risk pool of the welfare state and creates a
second pool in which public safety nets are residual. Dualism makes the
already doubtful efcacy of migration for interstate risk sharing even more
doubtful. It raises the scal risks that are entailed in migration across a union
with no scal risk sharing. They are particularly harmful for the origin coun-
tries: cross-border migrants in the EA take the (income) tax base they represent
with them which is lost to the emigration country while in the US, it is not
262
lost to the federal tax system (Atoyan et al. 2016: paras 2630). Similarly,
pay-as-you-go pension systems can hardly be sustained in net emigration
countries, even if, forty years down the line, they can hope for a rising transfer
from pensioners returning from a working life abroad. This is a problem in
Southern and Central and Eastern Europe as their demographic dynamic is the
same as in Western Europe: aging fast. In the US, the federal social security
system does not create problems for Florida which is where many Americans
move to when they retire.
The US comparison showed that, while there are differences between the EA
and the US, the difference that a political union makes is subtler than most of
the literature has it. In either union, access and entitlement comes with the
expectation that migrants integrate: there is a strong presumption that
migrants get employment. This expectation is particularly transparent in the
EU, notably in the differentiated rights of economically active and inactive
citizens. In the US, economically inactive migrants have social citizenship,
while non-employed EU nationals must rst establish a link with the host
state by fullling a residence requirement. This is routinely assumed to be the
case after ve years; only then can pensioners and students expect assistance
when they fall on hard times (Pennings 2012: 3279). A foreign immigrant
worker attempting to claim any federal benet in the US faces the same
ve years requirement. Relative to average wages in a state, the entitlements
in the US are often exceedingly low, undercutting even the federal poverty
standard. Overall, free movement entitles US citizens to lower benets and
forces them more readily into secondary labor markets than free movement
in the EA-10 does. The comparison does not suggest that political union
determines the extent of social solidarity; it is the generosity of welfare states
that determines it.
Both the EA-10/EU and the US operate regimes of coordinated social
security. To an internal economic migrant, the US does not present itself
as one welfare state: most programs relevant to adults of working age are
co-nanced by federal and state governments but administered by the
states which give quite different entitlements. To be precise: there is more
variation between contributory benets (unemployment insurance) than
between non-contributory benets (social assistance) in the US while the
opposite holds in the EA-10 (see Table 8.2). Contributory benets are (ex-)
portable in both unions, non-contributory benets are not. The dividing
line between these two types of benets is not easy to draw (Bolderson and
Mabbett 1995) which has led to conicts between state governments and
legal activists, often ending up in court. Over time, EU case law developed
principles for the exportability of benets nanced through social security
contributions that, if in doubt, tend to be favorable to free movement
263
migrants.37 This repeats the history of the US where equal treatment of

internal migrants and residents was also the result of judicial intervention.38
Low benets and less variation in social assistance seem to support the
venerable hypothesis that the closer market integration achieved in the US
has a dismal effect on social security: free movement of people and capital
creates a race to the bottom. Economic freedoms allow marginally employed
people to move to the states with the highest benets, while rms move out of
states with the highest taxes and social security contributions, supposedly
forcing these welfare magnets to slash both (Freeman 1986; Peterson and
Rom 1990). The race-to-the-bottom hypothesis has been widely debated and
there will always be evidence for both sides of the argument (Bruckner 2000;
Schmitt and Obinger 2013).
The persistence of variance in relative benet levels is counter-evidence to
the pessimistic convergence hypothesis (Table 8.2; Schram et al. 1998:
21719). The decline in benets arising from the US welfare reforms in the
1990s was not correlated with migration pressures, and the politics of welfare
reform point to a host of other explanations (Schwartz 2001). One explan-
ation of particular interest for the comparison with the EU points to the effects
of scal federalism, with states shifting costs onto the federal government. In
the case of social assistance, US states can free ride on federally nanced
SNAP. State governments can also try to shift workers onto the federally
nanced EITC. Thus downward convergence in social assistance may have
more to do with moral hazard in a scal federation than with the alleged
incompatibility of welfare states and open economies.
Free movement is a stepping stone in Europes difcult project of political
integration in the form of social security coordination. This is partly a neces-
sity and not just another elite project: if cross-border labor market integration
is not supported by welfare-state provisions and left ungoverned, it can easily
become politically divisive and socially disruptive (Burgoon 2014; Favell 2009:
186). The shift to activation policies over recent decades is an example of how
welfare-state reforms can intensify adverse political effects and regressive dis-
tributive effects from immigration. Regulation and contestation around the
norms underpinning free movement, non-discrimination, and equal treatment
force a heterogeneous union to develop meta-rules with which the various
members can live. These norms protect individuals, not institutions. This
37
As mentioned, if a worker acquired pension rights in two member states simultaneously, s/he
must receive the pension from the country with the more generous provision. This aggregation
principle was initially introduced to rule out duplication yet tends to be also a mechanism of
progressive redistribution, in that richer member states pay higher pensions (Schelkle 2013b). See
also Meyer et al. (2013) for a detailed study of pension entitlements of EU internal migrants.
38
This observation nds support in Dan Kelemens widely acclaimed work on adversarial
legalism in the EU, comparable to the US (Kelemen 2011).
264
makes them indispensable in a union of liberal democracies but also politically

divisive in a monetary union of diverse members. Free movement is a political-
legal integration project in its own right, best handled with care and not under
the imaginary pressure of an economic imperative (Collier 2013). There is
no instrumental necessity for free movement of persons in a monetary
union, contrary to what more than half a century of normative economic theory
has asserted.
265
9
Monetary Solidarity in Financial Integration
Since 2008, the idea that nancial integration provides channels of interstate
risk sharing and thus helps to stabilize economies has been discredited beyond
redemption. There are strong theoretical reasons, discussed in Chapter 3, why
it is untenable to assume that nancial markets as such share and diversify
risks. Financial markets allow risks to be taken, sometimes incalculable ones
that they are ill-equipped to bear. For nancial markets to have a stabilizing
effect, they require the permanent provision of collective goods. These include
regulation that forces those who take protable risks to also bear costs on the
downside, and safety nets that can draw on at money and the pool of future
taxpayers (Kindleberger 2000: 216).
This chapter analyses a safety net that is unique to a currency union, namely
a unied payments system. This crucial institution distinguishes a currency
union from a xed exchange rate system (Bindseil and Knig 2011: 4; Garber
2010; Whelan 2014b: 112). It ensures that a euro is accepted as a euro in
payment irrespective of whether it is drawn on a bank account in Portugal or
the Netherlands, just as a dollar is a dollar throughout the United States even if
one district experiences for several years a high inow of bank deposits from
virtually every other district. By zooming in on the payments system between
nancial rms and central banks of a monetary union, we can demonstrate in a
nutshell all the policy tradeoffs that risk sharing in a monetary union faces
(Cecchetti et al. 2012: 1214). Who benets primarily from the protection?
Does a payments system give banks and wealthy individuals too easy an option
of capital ight, at the expense of the general taxpayer? Does the insurance
provided come at the cost of adjustment to current-account imbalances? Is
politically imposed austerity the only way to force a member into adjustment
if foreign exchange reserves are no longer a binding constraint?
These questions indicate doubts about the desirability of meeting all
demands for cross-border payments and nancial transfers, which is what a
payments system accomplishes. The chapter argues for the contrary view, that
payments systems in the euro area (TARGET) and the US (ISA) are extremely
effective stabilizing insurance schemes.1 They ensured the smooth processing

of cross-border payments inside two monetary unions when banks, traders,
and savers had lost trust in the nancial system. The ex post distributional
effects of this insurance are not easy to ascertain. Claims about the effects of
TARGET have been the subject of a divisive public debate in Germany, but the
following discussion shows that these claims are largely spurious. The com-
parison with the US enables us to see how a payments system functions within
a union where the most devastating political market failures have been insti-
tutionally resolved (Section 4.3).
The rst section of this chapter outlines the sharp criticism levelled against
the payments system of the euro area. Criticism peaked in 201112, after
Hans-Werner Sinn, a renowned German economist and notorious critic of
the euro, was apparently tipped off by former Bundesbank President Schle-
singer about the strong increase in claims and liabilities between national
central banks. Claims were being accumulated by the Bundesbank in particu-
lar. This had been independently noted by Garber (2010) and Whittaker
(2011). The insinuation was that the Bundesbank and ultimately German
taxpayers were being forced to amass billions of doubtful claims through
TARGET2. While this particular charge produced more heat than light, it has
to be conceded that those worried about high imbalances in the payments
system asked legitimate questions. It turned out that its economic function-
ality and the legal-nancial implications of a participant defaulting were not
well understood. But an impressive research effort by a critical mass of scholars
produced answers in a relatively short time.
The second section explains why the payments systems in both the EA and
in the US began to show huge imbalances after 2007. The fact that the US also
registered this phenomenon should have given those who raised the alarm
reason to pause, since nobody suggested that the US experienced an internal
balance of payments crisis or was about to fall apart. In both monetary unions,
extraordinary monetary policy interventions substituted for disrupted inter-
bank markets and the payments systems were the vehicles for this market
making of last resort (Buiter 2012; Lubik and Rhodes 2012).
The third section shows how TARGET provided effective insurance against
at least three risks: a sudden stop of trade nance, disruption from capital
ight, and the eventuality of a euro area break-up. In line with Cecchetti et al.
(2012) and Whelan (2014b), the section provides evidence that the various
1
TARGET stands for Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross settlement Express Transfer
System. This characterizes a settlement system in which processing and settlement [of payments]
take place on an order-by-order basis (without netting) in real time (continuously) (ECB n.d.: 6).
TARGET2 stands for the rst fully unied system introduced after the EA had already started. ISA
stands for the Inter-district Settlement Account in the US which fulls the same role between
Federal Reserve districts in the US.
267
diagnoses of what was driving the payments imbalances all played a role at
some stage; it was not primarily a matter of trade decits or primarily capital
account reversals. For the insurance that TARGET provides, this is also a
largely irrelevant question. A functioning payments system of a monetary
union is analogous to universal public insurance. It covers all risks (known
unknowns) and even uncertainty (unknown unknowns).
The fourth section sums up by addressing two puzzles. First of all, why was
there, in the words of an American observer (Wolman 2013: 128), such
uproar in Europe about an arcane institution? Nothing of the sort has ever
been observed in ISAs history, even though the payments system was put to a
severe test in the Great Depression (Eichengreen et al. 2014). It is tempting to
see the lack of political union and the asymmetric power of Germany as the
most plausible explanations. But these explanations leave parts of the puzzle
unresolved. From the perspective of the political economy of monetary soli-
darity, the second puzzle is even bigger. Why was the operation of TARGET
not more susceptible to real or perceived collective action problems, real or
perceived moral hazard, or commitment problems on the part of Germany?
The unied platform of payments in the EA was initially built against some
resistance of member state authorities.2 But apart from a few internal discus-
sions, a glimpse of which outside observers got from a leaked letter by Bun-
desbank President Weidmann to the ECB, no policymaker questioned the
system and certainly none tried to obstruct its working like the Chicago Fed
did in 1933. The answers to both puzzles will be sought in the political
economy of insurance (Section 2.4).
9.1 The Political Challenge of a Payments System
In a monetary union operated by several member central banks, payments

cross internal borders between these members. Payments are initiated by
private banks and there is no upper limit on the amounts that can be trans-
acted, which are settled with immediate effect as far as the initiating banks are
concerned. The operating central banks may hold the consolidated claims and
liabilities against the common central bank or against each other for a certain
time (ISA) or indenitely (TARGET). Typically at the end of the business day,
they are netted and either recorded as bilateral claims (ISA) or as claims/
liabilities of each against the joint central bank (TARGET). Normally, pay-
ments systems work smoothly and consumers and rms do not even notice
whether one or two central banks are involved in its operation.
2
Interviews at the ECB in June 2015. Giavazzi and Wyplosz (2015: 724) recall that observers
feared at the time that the ECB would not be able to overcome this resistance against a centralized
payments system.
268
Before the crisis, hardly any student of monetary integration, including

myself, paid attention to what seemed to be a mere accounting device. The
exception is Peter Garber (1998), a research economist at Deutsche Bank, who
suggested that the interbank payments system could fund a speculative attack
on weaker currencies during the nal stage of forming the euro area when
exchange rates were irrevocably xed but the common currency did not yet
circulate. As Garber (2010: fn 1) himself notes, his contribution was part of an
alarmist Euroskeptic literature that was produced in abundance throughout
the 1990s, by US economists in particular.
The sudden interest in this arcane institution was triggered by anomalous
imbalances in the TARGET2 system which Figure 9.1 shows. The top line
represents the Bundesbank surplus of bank reserves which has its counterpart
in claims against other central banks, while the lowest two lines represent the
liabilities of the central banks of Spain and Italy. By mid-2014, the Bank of
Italy switched places with the Bank of Spain, bearing the largest liabilities in
the TARGET system.3 At its peak in August 2012, when there was a real
prospect of the euro area breaking up, it was understandably worrying that
the Bundesbank held claims of more than 750 billion against the TARGET
system. Those alarmed argued that the Bundesbank was forced to nance
current -account decits that private capital ows were no longer willing to
nance. These decits were accumulated by Southern Europe (relocating
Ireland in the process), the periphery (including Italy, a founding member
of the EU), or the GI(I)PS (Greece, Italy, (Ireland), Portugal, Spain). To see how
valid the claims regarding such links are, Figure 9.2 shows the current-account
imbalances.
It should be noted, rst, that Figure 9.1 depicts the claims and liabilities by
national central banks (accumulated stocks), while Figure 9.2 shows the
annual imbalances that give rise to claims by net exporting countries and
liabilities by net importing countries (ows or change in stocks). Even so, it is
evident that there is no close match between the two time series: current
accounts tended to diverge after 2003, long before TARGET imbalances
emerged in late 2007; and current-account decits disappeared in all but one
member state (France) at exactly the time that TARGET imbalances reached
their peak. It is also noticeable that there are two big persistent surplus
countries, Germany and the Netherlands, while there is some movement
among the large decit countries: Spain is the biggest net importer until
2009; Italy shows some ups and downs; and France glides from a surplus
into the largest decit without the Banque de France accumulating vast TAR-
GET liabilities.
3
These data were extracted from national central bank balance sheets and were collected by
Steinkamp and Westermann (2014) from the University of Osnabrck.
269
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
2
3
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-1
-1
-1
-1
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
D
D
200000
400000
600000
Belgium Germany Ireland Greece
Spain France Italy Luxembourg
Netherlands Austria Portugal Finland
Figure 9.1. TARGET claims and liabilities of the EA-12 member states, 200214, in
millions
Source: monthly data from Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrck University,
www.eurocrisismonitor.com
Although a simple explanation was not available, the iconography of explod-

ing TARGET claims and liabilities nonetheless attracted attention. Hans-
Werner Sinn raised the alarm with a series of articles in the German media,
alongside a co-authored scholarly paper (Sinn and Wollmershuser 2012).
Sinn was a professor of economics and public nance at the University of
Munich but not your ordinary academic: an eminently inuential gure
among German academic economists and known to a wider audience thanks
to his popular and populist publications on what went wrong with German
unication and what was wrong with the German bazaar economy in the
early 2000s. At the time of the debate outlined below, he was Director of the
CES-Ifo research group. It is instructive to outline the way he launched a
media campaign before anybody had the chance to fully understand what
was going on, Sinn and those who supported his cause included.
There are direct connections between Sinns publications on TARGET in
201112 and an open letter to the Bundesbank sent by the Bavarian section of
the German taxpayers association in February 2012, thirty-one pages long
270
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
50000
100000
150000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Belgium Greece Italy Austria

Germany Spain Luxembourg Portugal
Ireland France Netherlands Finland
Figure 9.2. Annual current-account balances 200213, in millions

Source: AMECO
with eighty-seven footnotes (Bund der Steuerzahler 2012). This association

was a public voice that the two Conservative parties in Germany could not
ignore. This open letter followed a rather dry press statement by the Bundes-
bank in the previous year that triggered more questions than it answered and a
more didactic explanation in the March report had to follow (Bundesbank
2011). But to no avail. The open letter was the prelude to a charge of criminal
negligence against the Bundesbank management in April 2012, although the
criminal court in Frankfurt refused to open procedures. There was some
concern in other countries: in the lower house of the Austrian parliament,
questions were raised about the size of the Austrian TARGET balances (Jobst
et al. 2012: fn 1). Some reverberations of the intense debate were still felt in
May 2014 when the TARGET2 balances of the Bundesbank and the alleged
liabilities of the German taxpayers made it into the manifesto with which the
new Euroskeptic party Alternative fr Deutschland went into the European
Parliament elections. They adopted a proposal originated by Sinn, namely to
impose a cap on TARGET imbalances. The new party of Euroskeptics won 7
percent of the popular vote, inicting massive losses on the Christian Social
Union in Bavaria. Its then party leader, the economics professor Bernd Lucke,
was well acquainted with Sinn as both were leading lights in a campaign by
200 German economists against the banking union in 2012.
271
The alarm that Sinn raised had the authority of economic expertise, while
his apparent efforts to enlighten the public gave him the license to use
metaphors which were as evocative as they were potentially misleading.
His introduction to a special issue of CESifo Forum on The European Balance
of Payments Crisis is a case in point. The special issue was published in
January 2012 and included eighteen contributions, two by Sinn himself,
fourteen by those who support Sinns concerns, among them former Bun-
desbank President Schlesinger. The remaining two articles challenged the
Sinn position and were written by economists from the Bundesbank
(Ulbrich and Lipponer 2012) and the ECB (Bindseil et al. 2012), respectively.
Sinn (2012: 3) refers to them as current representatives of the Bundesbank
and the ECB, who wish to convey a sense of normality. So the reader knew
from the start that independent experts sided with Sinn, while those
opposed were technocrats defending institutional positions. Yet the articles
of the latter are more analytical and empirically grounded than the former,
and they provide an explanation of why the large TARGET imbalances reect
the abnormal state of the interbank market (Ulbrich and Lipponer 2012: 74;
Bindseil et al. 2012: 87).
Sinns introduction to the special issue was not an editors introduction but
a summary of the Ifo Institutes views (Sinn 2012: 3). He insisted that the
TARGET system is a way for current-account decit countries to get whatever
they need to continue nancing their decits:
It is . . . entirely correct to speak of Target credit that the periphery countries were
able to draw out of the Eurosystem forcing other euro countries, predominantly
Germany, to provide this credit . . . [O]ne could say that the Bundesbank was
lending its money printing press to the periphery countries, (Sinn 2012: 5)
The heuristic of a printing press evokes the image of a physical ow of

money in return for tangible goods and services.
This physical image brings with it two spurious implications (Sinn 2012: 6;
Fahrholz and Freytag 2012: 79). First, the outow of money would lead to the
displacement of central bank credit to domestic (German) banks. The ood
of money to the periphery invokes the image of draining the center when, in
fact, no such drastic ows happened (Bindseil et al. 2012: 868). Second, the
bounty of cheap TARGET credit would prevent adjustment by decit countries
(Sinn 2012: 6):
Whether good or bad, it is a matter of fact that credit relocation via the ECB System
meant that part of the German savings capital was owing out via the system of
central banks, rather than via the interbank markets. This slowed down the
adjustment processes in the countries of the periphery, which would otherwise
have been enforced by the markets.
272
Surplus countries like Germany became the passive victims of uncontrolled

capital leakage. It is the same physical metaphor that made the price-specie
ow mechanism, a stylized textbook explanation of adjustment under the
gold standard, so deceptively fathomable. Its operation should lead to equi-
librium because countries with a trade decit lose gold in payment and this
lack of means of payment will force their prices and wages down, restoring
their competitiveness.4 But of course, if there is a printing press that replen-
ishes the vanishing gold stock, no such adjustment will take place.
The metaphor of the printing press conveyed to the general reader that
trade decitscreating a demand for money to pay for goods and services
were driving the TARGET imbalances. But Sinn had to grapple with the
problem that neither Ireland nor Italy had large and persistent current-
account decits. Sinn (2012: 5) presents the case of Ireland as if it would
underline the earlier current-account-competitiveness diagnosis thus:
In Ireland the situation was even more exceptional and extreme than in the other
GIPS countries insofar as outright capital ight took place . . . [T]he breakdown of
the interbank market meant that banks from the core countries stopped providing
new credit to Ireland and even repatriated their maturing loans, returning the debt
titles which backed those loans to the Irish banks.
If his diagnosis for Ireland is correct, it is not simply even more extreme but
quite different. It is then not consumers in importing countries that are the
ultimate beneciaries of TARGET decits but holders of assets who are able to
reduce their exposure. Principal among these are subsidiaries of core banks,
which reduced their periphery assets, cutting lending, and disposing of bonds,
while continuing to take deposits (Section 9.3.2).
In Sinns diagnosis, the surplus countries Germany and the Netherlands are
the suffering victims and the GIPS, as he likes to call them, are the beneting
perpetrators. The extent of this victimization is driven home with per capita
gures: Germanys Target claim increased to 463 billion euros in December
2011 or 5.7 thousand euros per capita . . . By November 2011, the Dutch
central bank had accumulated a claim of 145 billion euros, which amounted
to even 8.7 thousand euros per capita (Sinn 2012: 4). The gures refer to the
recorded claim of national central banks against the ECB, but these are not
claims on the taxpayer. There would be a loss if these claims defaulted, and it
would indirectly (via central bank prots) accrue to taxpayers, but the magni-
tude and distribution of these losses bears no relation to the structure of
TARGET claims, as will become obvious.
4
Scholars who study the gold standard can explain that such physical gold ows were the
exception rather than the rule as rising interest rates prevented them.
273
This sorry state of European affairs is contrasted with the US, where market
discipline supposedly reins in the decit districts: A district that wants to
import more goods than it exports must therefore obtain a private loan in
other districts, or its central bank must pay its counterparts in other districts
with marketable assets (Sinn 2012: 9).5 No wonder then that if European
decit countries are given such unrestrained use of a powerful instrument,
payments imbalances become the origin of all the calamities that the euro
area faces: [T]he availability of cheap Target credit . . . may very well even have
caused the capital ight that it is trying to compensate for (Sinn 2012: 9).
It also interfered with countries own best interests: Cheap access to the
euro printing press . . . may have kept countries in the eurozone that otherwise
would have preferred to exit and devalue to restore their competitiveness
(Sinn 2012: 6). And so the crisis will have to run its course to the bitter end
since TARGET prevents the inevitable adjustment:
Only at the very end, when even the strongest countries have their backs to the
wall and have run out of credit, will real internal devaluation in the crisis-stricken
euro countries be agreed upon. Only then will the competitiveness of the GIPS
countries be restored and the euro area brought into equilibrium. (Sinn 2012: 10)
If there ever was a simple diagnosis of a complex policy problem, we can nd

it here.
As noted above, these arguments resonated with the German media, organ-
ized interests like the Bavarian taxpayers association, a new Euroskeptic party
and the wider public. Enraged comments bear witness to this, for instance on
blogs by journalists who tried to counter the conspiracy theories and dooms-
day scenarios that thrived on Sinns contributions.6 Finally, on May 31, 2011,
Sinns propositions received worldwide publicity when Martin Wolf (2011)
took them up in his widely read blog for the Financial Times, Intolerable
choices for the Eurozone. Wolf s blog in turn was endorsed, on June 1, by
Paul Krugman (2011), arguing that the TARGET claims and liabilities are
evidence for a slow-motion bank run . . . in the European periphery. Krug-
man ended on a note that made even Sinn sound hopeful: If you ask me, the
water level has now dropped so far that the fuel rods are exposed. We really are
in meltdown territory. Again, the metaphor misleads: the accumulation of
5
It will become clear that this is a complete misrepresentation of the US system where Federal
Reserve districts have no current-account balance and the marketable assets are an expanding
portfolio of open-market instruments, generated by similar monetary policy instruments to those
that Sinn (2012: 10) vehemently criticizes in the case of the ECB.
6
See Mark Schieritz on the blog Herdentrieb (http://www.zeit.de/suche/index?q=TARGET2)
and Olaf Storbeck on the blog Economics Intelligence (http://olafstorbeck.blogstrasse2.de/?
cat=15), both in German.
274
TARGET balances showed a safety valve at work, not a hazardous failure of the
main mechanism.
This campaign and its resonance also mobilized an unprecedented effort by
scholars and economic journalists to get to the bottom of the TARGET imbal-
ances.7 The critics emphasized that it was the capital account that unsettled
the payments system. This meant that the blame lay not with the decit
countries but with German and other banks that exited the periphery and
thus generated a good part of the TARGET surpluses. This analysis also refuted
the charge that easy availability of TARGET credit incentivized decit countries
to import more than they export; capital ight instead created a credit crunch.
The only point of agreement between the two sides can be summarized by ECB
President Draghis statement that a decrease in TARGET2 balances is the best
sign we have that there has been a gradual return of condence.8
Despite the manipulative rhetoric and outright hysterical overtones, the
TARGET debate has proven instructive and the following section draws heav-
ily on the insights that it generated. In my view, the critics of the Sinn position
have won the scholarly argument hands down. But this is not necessarily the
public perception. Sinn managed to frame the debate in terms that his critics
had to accept. Inadvertently, they contributed to the impression that it is
Germany that should worry even when arguing that it should not (Dullien
and Schieritz 2012). Readers could be forgiven for thinking that the break-
down of the euro area was imminent when leading economists analyzed the
consequences. Buiter and Rahbari (2012) proved that Germany would not
bear a high cost, while De Grauwe and Ji (2013) proposed ways for Germany
to protect itself by discriminating against those choosing it as a safe haven.
These assurances were given with an overtly mocking Calm down, dear!, a
sentiment understandably hard to suppress.9 But it did not exactly help to
convince the skeptics. My contribution in the following is to highlight, with
the benet of hindsight, the various insurance roles that TARGET performed
and thus turn the arguments of Sinns critics into a positive case for TARGET
imbalances.
7
The debate can be followed at VoxEU.org (http://www.voxeu.org/taxonomy/term/3064); for
the TARGET tag and at the Euro Crisis Monitor (http://www.eurocrisismonitor.com/) which are
blogs that give voice to both sides. FT Alphaville also has useful contributions, for instance a
thoughtful contribution from Gavyn Davies (2011).
8
ECB press conference on May 2, 2013, in Bratislava at http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/
pressconf/2013/html/is130502.en.html (accessed December 4, 2014).
9
For instance, Buiter and Rahbari (2012: 212) have some comforting news for those worrying
about the worst-case scenario: With Germany as the only EA member state left, the Bundesbank is
the sole owner of the ECB, so it is quite convenient that the institution is located in Frankfurt.
And: If there were a complete disintegration of the euro area . . . the Bundesbank, as sole owner of
the ECB ought not to have too much trouble collecting on the debt it would be owed by the ECB
under Target2.
275
9.2 Payments Systems of Two Monetary Unions
Both the euro area and the dollar area are composed of a system of central
banks that together administer a single currency (Wolman 2013: 128). The
European currency union started with eleven member states, two years later
joined by Greece, which formed the ESCB. National central bank governors
are represented in the ECBs Governing Council. These central banks have
some limited ability to provide liquidity to banks established in their jurisdic-
tion and are owned, ultimately, by the national governments. The ECB is the
sole issuer of central bank money and has its own balance sheet. The Federal
Reserve System is made up of twelve district central banks that each represent
a number of US states and are owned by private banks that receive a xed
dividend on their shares. The Federal Reserve Board in Washington, DC
decides monetary policy through the FOMC on which the governors of the
district central banks are represented. Unlike the ECB, the Federal Reserve
Board issues central bank money through the New York Fed and has no
balance sheet of its own.
Commercial banks established in each member state/district maintain an
account with the national/district central bank. A bank is established if it has
its headquarters there or is incorporated as a subsidiary, in contrast to merely
operating a branch. Payment ows between banks in different member states/
districts go through these central bank accounts. Without this highly liquid
intermediary, payments would be rather costly as every bank would have to
maintain links with every other bank. Payments would also be susceptible to
cash ow interruptions, as information about partners and events elsewhere is
even less complete than in domestic transactions, leading to cycles of com-
placency and panic. In the euro area, the payment system TARGET fullled
these functions from January 1999 by connecting national systems. It was
replaced by TARGET2, a single platform, in May 2008. The equivalent in the
US is called the Inter-district Settlement Account (ISA), introduced in 1913.
9.2.1 Payments Systems in Normal Times

If two currency areas, A and B, decide to form a currency union, it must not
make a difference for payments within this newly formed monetary union
whether they are (i) operated solely by the joint central bank C, (ii) adminis-
tered by the two former central banks, or (iii) administered by the central
banks in A and B while C is liable for the net balances since it is the one that
issues the joint currency (Ulbrich and Lipponer 2012: 74). The rst option
characterizes the Bank of England in the UK, the second the Federal Reserve
System in the US, and the third option was chosen for the ESCB, or Euro-
system. In each case, the payment system is a platform for registered users
276
Payments system
C
(at central bank/ECB
(TARGET or ISA)
or not/Fed system)
Member central
banks CB-A CB-B
(national or district)
Interbank market
Banks (HQ or
subsidiaries) in Bank A Bank B
member states
Exporter Importer
Bank customers in Household Household
member states resident in B with resident in B
account in A
Figure 9.3. Schematic representation of cross-border payments
with access to central bank reserves, typically wholesale and retail commercial
banks, to make payments to each other.
There can be many reasons why the authorities ask banks in one member
jurisdiction to make their payments to banks in the other area through their
former central bank. They already have an established infrastructure and
member states do not want to lose these jobs; banking supervision may be
devolved and the member central banks play some role in it; and the decen-
tralized booking of payments allows regulators to keep track of different
liquidity developments in the members banking systems. A decentralized
system certainly creates a lot of employment although the variation is large.
In 2009, the euro area had 48,100 central bank staff, or more than 15 per
100,000 inhabitants, of which France had almost 13,000 and Germany over
11,000. The Federal Reserve System had 19,900 staff overall, about 7 per
100,000 citizens (Economist 2009).
Since the role of current-account imbalances in contrast to capital ight has
been in dispute, the basic exposition distinguishes between them (Bindseil
and Knig 2011: 1218; Cecchetti et al. 2012: 24; Figure 9.3). An example of a
current-account transaction is that a wholesale wine importer in B wants to
buy produce from a vineyard in A, nanced by funds held with her bank in
B. The exporting vineyard owner wants to hold all nancial wealth with his
bank in A. Thus, the bank in B has to make a payment to the bank in A. It does
so by instructing the payment system to transfer deposits it holds with the
central bank in B (or can get via an overdraft against collateral) to credit the
account of the bank in A, which it holds with the central bank there.
277
This current-account transaction gives rise to claims and liabilities in the

central bank balance sheets of each memberand in the consolidated balance
sheet of the currency union, if there is one. As regards the two-member central
banks, the central bank in B will have a longer balance sheet because it gave
(possibly just intraday) credit to bank B (booked on its asset side) and has now
a liability towards the central bank in A booked on the other side. The central
bank in A, by contrast, just notes an asset swap, namely a claim on the central
bank in B for a lower amount of credit to bank A.10
Any credit that a bank (here possibly B) may take out to make a payment
must be collateralized so as to secure the crediting central bank against default
(see Section 5.2.2). The claims and liabilities between central banks and vis--
vis the central bank (C) are not collateralized. This makes sense: they are
claims on and liabilities in central bank money that the system itself creates.
The joint central bank C shows on the asset side that banks in B took out more
credit, offset by the claims banks in A acquired, ultimately against C. This is
how TARGET operates: at the end of each day, the claims that member central
banks acquired during a business day are netted and become a claim against
the ECB. The ECB is the hub in the hub-and-spoke structure of the Euro-
system (Whelan 2014b: 83). In ISA, the hub is constituted by net claims on the
pool of interest-bearing securities held by the Federal Reserve System, that is
the twelve district banks collectively, since there is no consolidated bank
C with its own balance sheet.
In normal times, bank A may now consider that it holds excess reserves with
its central bank given the payment it received. Excess reserves carry a low
interest rate and bank A may therefore want to lend them at a slightly higher
interest rate in the interbank market. In the simplest case, bank B is in a
matching position. It may want to replenish its reserves or reduce its borrow-
ing from the central bank, if that borrowing is more expensive than what it
has to pay in the interbank market. When the interbank market is function-
ing, matching occurs: banks in the position of A lend to banks like B. The
resulting interbank ow undoes the intrasystem claims and liabilities between
the two central banks, including the net claim of bank A on the consolidated
bank C. The availability of funds in the interbank market is one of the reasons
why before 2007, the intrapayment system claims and liabilities were fairly
balanced: liquidity-rich banks nancing exporters were happy to lend to
liquidity-seeking banks nancing importers. The nationality of trading rms
and the banks that nance them do not have to be the same. Even a non-euro
10
This is the supposed displacement of central bank credit, namely that central bank A (the
Bundesbank) would give less credit to banks in A. No such displacement takes place, this is a mere
accounting transaction that happens in normal times.
278
bank, for instance from the UK, can participate in TARGET via subsidiaries in
the euro area.
A capital movement, such as a portfolio investment, generates similar
accounting transactions in the payments system. Take the example of wealthy
households in B wanting to transfer part of their deposits to banks in A. The
reasons can vary: because they often spend their holidays in A, because they
want to diversify their bank connections to enjoy full deposit insurance, or
because they no longer trust the banks in B. Households would therefore
instruct their bank to make a payment to their newly opened account in
A. As before, the bank in B requests the central bank in B to take from its
reserves or give it credit and transfer the funds to the central bank in A which
credits bank A. Deposit holdings and thus liquidity of the banking system in
B are reduced, while both have increased for banks in A. As before, the
consolidated balance sheet C only shows a change on the asset side to the
effect that banks in A need less, and those in B more, central bank liquidity.
And again, these traces of a capital transaction would be undone if banks in
A lent their excess reserves to banks in B via the interbank market. Bank B may
have a liquidity or funding shortage that made it run down its central bank
reserves or even take out credit; but in normal times, the interbank market
evens out such liquidity shortages and excess holdings promptly.
Thus, the account balances in the payment system do not tell us whether it
was current-account transactions or capital movements that originated them.
This observational equivalence gave rise to the TARGET debate. Sinn and his
supporters saw problems of competitiveness and current-account decits of
Southern European countries as the ultimate drivers of payments imbalances,
while his critics insisted that it is more likely that capital ight, not least by
German banks, was the villain of the piece. In either case, a thriving interbank
market could have prevented the imbalances appearing in TARGET.
9.2.2 Payments Systems in Extraordinary Times

The nancial crisis in 20078 made the interbank market freeze. Banks like
A did not want to lend their excess reserves to banks like B anymore, whether
within country or cross-border. By holding their excess reserves with the
central bank instead, they ofoaded the credit risk they perceived in bank
B to the central bank. As Section 6.2.3 explained, loss of condence in per-
iphery banks persisted and deepened when the banking crisis turned into a
European sovereign debt crisis in early 2010. As well as weakening banks
which held that debt, there were massive capital account transactions, includ-
ing deposit ight, out of the affected countries. The consolidated central bank
balance at the ECB showed that the interbank market was not functioning
anymore, so the ECB became the interbank market maker of last resort (Buiter
279
2012), lending to banks which could not borrow in the interbank market and
borrowing from banks which would rather hold excess reserves than lend
them to other banks. The consolidated balance sheet of the Eurosystem thus
got longer. The banks that were unable to obtain interbank credit could
replenish their reserves thanks to the extraordinary monetary interventions
that the imminent nancial collapse forced the ECB to undertake, including
the xed rate full allotment policy which allowed banks to borrow as much as
they wished at an interest rate determined by the ECB. The only limit imposed
on the banks was that they had to provide eligible collateral, a constraint that
in the euro area is applied uniformly to all banks and for which standards were
progressively lowered during the crisis.11
Extraordinary monetary policy interventions coincided with widening TAR-
GET balances, as shown in Figure 9.1. If it is correct that this was due to a
malfunctioning interbank market, this observation should also apply to the
US. The Federal Reserve intervened in unprecedented ways to compensate for
a frozen interbank market as well. So how did the ISA balances look at the
time? Figure 9.4 shows that they became equally imbalanced and remained so
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
20061218
20021218
20031218
20041218
20051218
20071218
20081218
20091218
20101218
20111218
20121218
20131218
100000
200000
300000
01 Boston 02 New York 03 Philadelphia
04 Cleveland 05 Richmond 06 Atlanta
07 Chicago 08 St. Louis 09 Minneapolis
10 Kansas City 11 Dallas 12 San Francisco
Figure 9.4. ISA claims and liabilities of the twelve US districts, in US$ millions
Source: Weekly data from Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2
(accessed November 7, 2014)
11
See Bindseil and Knig (2011: 812) and Cecchetti et al. (2012: 34) for further elaboration of
the role that the full allotment policy plays.
280
even as the US economy recovered. The district of New York was in a similar
creditor role to the German Bundesbank, while the districts of San Francisco
and Richmond had at times gone into considerable decit. The gures still
look somewhat less frightening as there seem to be reversals from time to time:
the district of the Richmond central bank moves from a decit of $200 billion
in mid-2008 to a surplus of almost $250 billion in the rst half of 2009. And at
its peak in January 2012, New York only held claims of less than $370 billion
against other district central banks.
Higher volatility and lower overall levels point to a difference between
TARGET and ISA that has little to do with their functioning as payments
systems, however. TARGET does not settle imbalances between member cen-
tral banks, in other words claims and liabilities can accumulate for as long as
the currency union exists. ISA, by contrast, partially settles balances once a
year: district federal reserve banks with claims receive a larger share of interest-
bearing assets out of a pool while those with liabilities have to transfer shares
and thus end up with a lower share. Federal Reserve publications appropriately
speak of rebalancing the portfolio of securities rather than of outright settle-
ment (Lubik and Rhodes: 4; Wolman 2013: 124). If an analogous rebalancing
were to take place in TARGET every year, Figure 9.1 would resemble Figure 9.5.
For reasons of data availability, the adjustments made for differential devel-
opments in currencies and bank reserves in the districts have been left out
(Wolman 2013: 126).
The imbalances look much more similar and the maximum claims of
Germany are closer to those of the New York Fed ($300 billion/400 billion).
The reverse also holds: the ongoing increase in the Federal Reserve Systems
balance sheet, together with the limited tendency for reserve balances to ow
from New York to the other Districts, means that without the annual rebal-
ancing, New York . . . would have a persistently increasing ISA balance
(Wolman 2013: 128). A rough calculation suggests that a gure of $800 billion
for the ISA balance of New York would have accumulated between 1999 and
2013, starting at zero in 1999 (Wolman 2013: 138). New York ran ongoing
surpluses despite the annual rebalancing: settlement via interest-bearing
assets does not mean that the Fed districts with decits are forced into
adjustment.
There was no tendency for the ISA imbalances to recede until mid-2014,
because of the expansive monetary policy that the Federal Reserve has oper-
ated since 2008 in the wake of a banking crisis. There was no balance of
payments crisis among US states that ISA balances prolonged. Bank notes
issued by the New York Fed in the course of quantitative easing are subse-
quently apportioned to the other district central banks, according to a key.
This pushes their ISA balance into decit because the double entry book
keeping means that they buy securities (Treasury bonds and other assets)
281
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
100000
200000
300000
Belgium Germany Ireland Greece
Spain France Italy Luxembourg
Netherlands Austria Portugal Finland
Figure 9.5. TARGET claims and liabilities of the EA-12 member states (ISA method), in
millions
Source: University of Osnabrck, www.eurocrisismonitor.com, own calculations
Note: The TARGET balances here were reset in April of each year, analogous to the domestic
securities portfolio in ISA (Wolman 2013: 1246). The annual average was deducted from the
balance in April in the case of net creditor central banks (Germany, Netherlands, etc.) which
would receive interest-bearing assets to settle their claim. And vice versa for members that accu-
mulated liabilities over the year (Portugal, Spain, etc.): the annual average was added to their April
balance. The balance is drawn towards 0 in April but it would be exactly 0 only if the April balance
happened to be equal to the average of the previous year. As a starting point, the balances of all
members in the TARGET system were set equal to 0 in April 2003. The starting date was chosen
because the estimated monthly data for Ireland are only available since December 2002. The
Banque de France shows monthly balances only since July 2007
from the New York Fed with ISA balances (Wolman 2013: 1212). Conversely,
some transactions produce surpluses vis--vis the New York Fed. For instance,
the New York district can have banks making a lot of payments to other
districts. Some monetary policy instruments, such as the Term Auction Facil-
ity, were conducted by all twelve central banks. But until 2014, these payment
ows in the other direction did not offset the vast amount of money creation
that the New York Fed had engaged in since 2008.
There is nothing in the settlement process that would force any district
central bank to make these imbalances vanish. Rebalancing was done via a
transfer of gold certicates until the mid-1970s, but even this did not force
district banks in decit to impose a local credit contraction. Those with excess
282
gold certicates lent to those with shortfalls, so that the constraint did not
become binding (Eichengreen et al. 2014: 1213).12 Put differently, the avail-
ability of gold certicates has not ever restricted monetary policy or interdis-
trict payments in the United States (Wolman 2013: 125). In a fairly
complicated rebalancing procedure, the gold certicates account served as a
mere benchmark for the average reserves-to-notes ratio against which the
deviation of the previous year is calculated. This determines how the portfolio
of securities held in the System Open Market Account is reallocated. The
Federal Reserve System acquires these securities in open-market operations
when the money supply expands and reduces its holdings when the money
supply contracts. These securities are interest bearing, so those with an ISA
decit over the last twelve months receive less interest income, but these
marginal amounts do not induce changes in district policy preferences.
In the Eurosystem, national central banks with net claims also earn interest,
at the ECB rate for renancing operations with banks. These interest earnings
and payments feed into the ECB surplus which is distributed according to each
members share in the paid-up capital of the ECB; it does not matter which
member earned and which member paid for the amount that governments
receive as seignorage (Buiter et al. 2011: 12). Hence, there is no incentive in
the TARGET system to run a surplus or a decit: the ESCB operates a joint
prot and loss account (entry 4 in Table 5.1).
Is it possible for a district central bank in the US to experience such enor-
mous capital ight out of its banking system that it would have too few
securities to settle its balance with other district Fed banks? For instance, the
Richmond District is the seat of the Bank of America, one of the four largest US
banks with $1.02 trillion customer deposits as of June 30, 2013.13 If savers
suddenly ran from this bank into banks in other districts, such a situation is
conceivable. Would this mean that other central banks of the Federal Reserve
System might cease to process payments of banks in Richmond, or start
discounting checks to below par value? The short answer is not anymore.
Such bank runs happened between 1917 and 1921 and in 1933 (Koning
2012; Bordo 2014). Mutual accommodation through sharing of gold reserves
helped district central banks that ran out of these reserves to settle their
balances whenever the need arose, in line with statutory requirements. This
12
Sinn and Wollmershuser (2012: 41) see a major design aw of the euro area in the fact that it
imposes no golden fetters on member central banks, in contrast to the US payments system:
According to ofcial statements of the Federal Reserve, the debts are paid with gold certicates
and then cancelled. Gold certicates are securities collateralized by gold, issued by the US Treasury,
that bear the right to be exchanged for gold on demand. The authors provided no reference to
ofcial statements of the Fed that described the present situation.
13
Wolman (2013: 129) stresses, however, that the Bank of America holds 45 percent of these
deposits in branches of other districts, so even a massive deposit ight would affect the Richmond
Fed bank only by half of this amount.
283
happened on average every nine years between 1913 and 1960 (Eichengreen
et al. 2014: 13). Only once did a federal district bank, Chicago, refuse to accept
checks at par from another district bank, New York (Section 4.2.3). This
happened in 1933 at the height of the Great Depression, under pressure
from commercial banks in the Chicago District. It caused a major disruption,
forcing Roosevelt to declare a bank holiday and capital controls (Eichengreen
et al. 2014: 1416, 20). The Chicago Fed was required to accept checks from
New York and honor them at face value. This obligation to maintain the
payments system was subsequently formalized in the Federal Reserve Act of
1935. The Federal Reserve System is obliged by law (Sect. 16(14) of the Federal
Reserve Act) to clear all checks at par and to maintain the integrity of the
payments system. This legislation also eliminated the remaining monetary
policymaking powers of the district banks, which had been the basis for the
Chicago Feds defection.14
This incident occurred despite there being a political union and a scal
federation in the US. The Chicago Fed acted in line with the private incentives
of its owners while the rest of the country expected the provision of a public
good. It was a political market failure of commitment that created a devastat-
ing externality for the rest of the Federal Reserve System. Risk sharing was
enforced by the Federal Reserve Act which guarantees that all dollars are
treated equally, no matter which private bank or district bank has created
them (Koning 2012). The different treatment of balances in ISA and in
TARGET is of little economic signicance in a monetary union as a going
concern. The focus of both payments systems is on ensuring the par value of
all monetary instruments, not on disciplining individual members, as
Koning (2012) puts it in his insightful blog.
9.3 The Beneciaries of TARGET Insurance
The divergence in ISA balances was fueled by the extraordinary monetary

interventions of the Federal Reserve System after 20078. The ECBs full
allotment policy and long-term renancing operations did the same for TAR-
GET imbalances. Both responded to a common cause: the breakdown of
interbank lending. But since the German Bundesbank does not have the role
of the New York Fed in the implementation of monetary policy, it is less clear
why the claims would end up so disproportionately with the Bundesbank and
De Nederlandsche Bank. Nor are the GIIPS or GIPSIC (including Cyprus) a
14
[T]he Federal Reserve Act of 1935 . . . gave the Board of Governors in Washington D.C. full
control of purchases and sales of securities of regional Reserve Banks via the System account, which
signicantly facilitated interdistrict accommodation (Eichengreen et al. 2014: 21).
284
homogenous group of peripheral countries, contrary to what the acronyms

suggest (Section 6.1). This statement would even hold if one excluded Ireland,
the black swan for all who see a common Southern European malaise of
structural current-account decits at work.
This section argues that the imbalances were the symptoms of TARGET
acting as an effective insurance mechanism against at least three risks: rst,
sudden stops of trade nance; second, the panic of capital ight; and third,
exchange rate risks from a break-up of the EA (Cecchetti et al. 2012; Bordo
2014). This implies that TARGET was not a narrowly redistributive transfer
mechanism from surplus to decit countriesnor, in fact, the other way
round if one sees capital ight of German banks as the main driver of TARGET
imbalances. The system performed insurance services to a variety of pool
members aficted by payments difculties beyond their control.
It is helpful for the following to briey recall the basic balance of payments
identity (Cecchetti et al. 2012: 4):
Current Account (Ex-Im) + Capital Account (KIm-KEx) Ofcial Settlement

Balance (FEx-FIm).
The identity sign means that a balance of payments is by necessity balanced.

So if Sinn (2012) talks of a balance of payments crisis, he means that the
current-account decit (Ex-Im<0) is no longer paid for by a private net
capital import (KIm-KEx>0). Thus, the Ofcial Settlement Balance or Finan-
cial Account, which normally consists of foreign exchange and gold reserves,
becomes negative. The Ofcial Settlement Balance can restrict imports
of goods and services if private capital inows are not forthcoming under
a xed exchange rate system and the central bank cannot borrow
foreign exchange in large enough quantities in the market or from other
central banks.
For national central banks in the Eurosystem, TARGET balances play the
role of foreign exchange reserves (Buiter and Rahbari 2012: 1213). Current-
account decits can be nanced by a capital import from TARGET (FEx-
FIm<0) and current-account surpluses can continue because TARGET provides
the capital export (FEx-FIm>0) that banks are no longer ready to take onto
their books. But even if the current account were balanced, as it was roughly
the case for Ireland and Italy, a TARGET decit may be generated (FEx-FIm<0)
by an exodus of capital (KIm-KEx<0) and vice versa for the member state
that becomes the safe haven for these capital movements (KIm-KEx>0 leads
to FEx-FIm>0). All three balances can be imbalanced of course: before the
crisis, Spain had such high net capital imports from German and French
banks that they overcompensated even high current-account decits and the
country accumulated small TARGET surpluses and foreign exchange reserves
(Chen et al. 2012: 1920).
285
9.3.1 Insurance against Sudden Stops of Trade Finance?

One interpretation of the TARGET imbalances was that they sustain current-
account decits that can no longer be nanced by private capital ows
(Tornell and Westermann 2012). It is tempting to make this connection but
not self-evident: nobody ever suggested that the ISA imbalances depicted in
Figure 9.3 were driven by trade imbalances between Federal Reserve districts.
So it would have to be shown that current-account surpluses lead to increases
in TARGET balances and vice versa for decits (Cecchetti et al. 2012: 67).
Figure 9.6 shows this relationship for the EA-12 in the three years before the
crisis (20057), and at the height of the North Atlantic nancial crisis
(200810). The cumulative current-account balance over each three-year
period is plotted against the corresponding change in the TARGET balance.
We can see that before the crisis (trend line with diamonds) there was
virtually no relationship between the volumes needed for trade nance and
ofcial payments balances of central banks; instead, private capital and credit
nanced current-account imbalances. This changed in 200810 (trend line
with squares) when changes in TARGET claims and liabilities become correl-
ated to the current-account imbalances. Cecchetti et al. (2012: 6) consider this
to be evidence in favor of a (trade) ow interpretation of TARGET imbal-
ances, at least for this phase of the nancial crisis. If so, the correlation implies
that up to half of the current-account imbalances of decit and surplus
DE 300000
250000
200000
Change in TARGET balances
150000
NE 100000
LU DE
IT BE
FR PT IR LH
FIFI 50000
GR ATAT
SP SP FR BE NE
IT 0
PT
50000
GR
100000
IR
150000
200000
300000 200000 100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000
Cumulative current-account balances
200507 200810
Figure 9.6. Current-account balances and TARGET balances for EA-12, 200510, in
millions (annual data)
Source: AMECO, University of Osnabrck (<http://eurocrisismonitor.com>); own calculations
286
countries could be nanced thanks to TARGET (the trendline has a slope of

0.5). Notably, banks nancing the importers could obtain credit from the ECB
despite being shut out of interbank lending while banks nancing the export
side could ofoad the perceived credit risk. This positive relationship still
holds if Germany is excluded from the sample.
This change between 20057 and 200810 is prima facie evidence for
TARGET acting as an insurance mechanism against a sudden stop of trade
nance. Strictly speaking, this would mean that payments imbalances com-
pensated for the drying up of trade-related capital inows, rather than for
capital outows (Calvo 1998: 36).15 Such insurance would be extremely valu-
able because the international experience of more than 100 sudden stop
incidents between 1985 and 2010 suggests that output falls on average by
almost 10 percent, possibly more if other measures are used (Hutchison et al.
2010: 2). There is also evidence for developing economies that sudden stops
lead to a persistent decline in GDP growth rates, which is largely due to a
collapse in investment; smaller rms in the formal sector are the hardest hit,
compared to big rms and small informal businesses (Dagher 2010: 57).
Thus, not only banks but also the non-nancial economy, rms, and their
employees, might benet from insurance in the countries aficted by a sud-
den stop. This extends of course also to exporting sectors in countries that
trade with these countries.
In order to see generally to what extent TARGET may have compensated for
a sudden stop, Figure 9.7 depicts the trade balances of Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Portugal, and Spain and the change in TARGET balances between 2006 and
2012. The trade balance, recording the export and import of goods and
services, is part of the current account. The other two elements are the transfer
and the investment balance: the transfer balance records international trans-
fers paid (export) and received (import), the investment balance records inter-
est and prot income received from (for export of capital services) and paid to
abroad (for import of capital services).16
If TARGET ows compensated only for the sudden collapse in trade nance,
they should have the same sign and the same magnitude as the trade balances.
This is a plausible interpretation for Greece and Portugal for which both
balances closely correspond. However, the other countries do not t. Spain
halved its trade decit in 20089 while the TARGET balances became mas-
sively negative from 2010 onwards. Italy has a very minor trade decit and the
TARGET ows developed in a way which is completely unrelated to its need
15
Gourinchas et al. (2016: 39) dene sudden stops as a rise in funding costs but this cannot
explain the difference between a sudden stop inside and outside a monetary union.
16
These two other balances, for transfers and income, were quite important for the smaller of
the ve countries and explain more of their high decits than their export performance (Kang and
Shambaugh 2013).
287
Trade balances, million Change of TARGET balances, million

50000
50000
100000
150000
200000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain
Figure 9.7. Trade balances and change in TARGET balances, 200612

Source: OECD, ECB, University of Osnabrck (<http://eurocrisismonitor.com>); own calculations
for trade nance. Ireland had a trade surplus but negative TARGET ows until
2011, clearly a sign that capital account transactions were the major drivers.
The deep drop of the Irish TARGET balance in 2008 indicates how much of a
credit risk Irish banks had become in the eyes of other nancial institutions.
The capital exodus was such that the trade surplus could have paid for only
half of the capital outow if Ireland had still had its own currency.
This suggests that the TARGET ows behaved in line with an interpretation
that sees them as insurance against sudden stops of trade nance in two out of
the ve countries (Greece and Portugal). It is arguable though that the smooth
behavior of the trade balances in four of the ve countries, Spain being the
exception, was helped by a functioning payments system (Ilzetzki 2014: 128).
In fact, in the context of IMF programs, it has been argued that ofcial
nancial ows may overly hamper the adjustment of current-account bal-
ances. Non-euro EU countries with huge current-account decits had to cut
them by between 25 percent (Bulgaria, Latvia) and 15 percent (Lithuania) of
GDP in 2007 to reach balance or even surplus in 2010 (Merler and Pisani-Ferry
2012: 3; Whelan 2014b: 103). Southern European countries with decits of 15
percent (Greece) and 10 percent (Portugal, Spain) had reduced these to 10
percent (Greece), 7.5 percent (Portugal), and 3 percent (Spain) by 2010. While
TARGET is likely to have slowed down adjustment by preventing the sharp
credit squeeze that a stop of trade nance otherwise brings, it did not prevent
adjustment.
It is a matter for legitimate debate whether buying time for slower adjust-
ment is constructive and valuable or just a delay of the inevitable during
which more debt is accumulated (Cecchetti et al. 2012: 1213; Westermann
2014: 1223). There is a cost to both. But economists tend to praise exibil-
ity and rapid adjustment while neglecting the cost and hardship this entails.
Even in purely economic terms, rapid adjustment discourages long-term
288
planning and destroys viable, if import-dependent business and employment

along with rms that merely thrived on excessively cheap imports. And when
importers have to close down, the claims of exporters and their banks suffer as
well. Insurance from TARGET reduced these costs and spillovers.
Spain constitutes a puzzle, however, if the insurance benet of TARGET is
slower adjustment in case a sudden stop strikes. Spain adjusted surprisingly
fast as regards its trade balance, and TARGET liabilities accumulated only after
trade performance had improved. Ireland also has an odd pattern: its already
positive trade balance adjusted steadily upward, yet TARGET balances were
volatile and negative. This suggests that something else was driving payments
imbalances and something else was forcing these economies to (further)
improve their trade performance.
9.3.2 Insurance but also a Conduit for Capital Flight?

The majority of those who analyzed the sudden rise in TARGET imbalances
concluded that capital account reversals were responsible, as Mody and
Bornhorst (2012) put it. In this view, the imbalances were not primarily driven
by the drying up of trade nance but by savers and nancial investors recon-
sidering where to hold their assets. This then triggered capital outows that
may subsequently have forced countries into current-account (over)adjust-
ment. This could be the key to the puzzles of Spain and Ireland.
If TARGET imbalances are primarily driven by capital ight, the relationship
with current-account decits becomes uncertain. In terms of Figure 9.6, the
regression line might become very steep, if capital ight aficts the decit
countries most (Cecchetti et al. 2012: 78). If capital ight is more selective,
there may simply be no positive relationship. As Figure 9.8 shows for the
three-year period, which includes the rst half of 2012, the relationship
became negative (line with triangles). It is shown in contrast to the data for
200810 reproduced from Figure 9.6.
Despite persistent and even rising current-account surpluses, Germany, the
Netherlands, and Luxembourg experienced a reduction in their claims in the
latter period (negative TARGET ows). Moreover, the reversal was almost a
mirror image of the one for 200810. This suggests that capital ight may
already have played a role in 200810: those who ed into the safe haven of
the Bundesbank were unwinding their excess reserves in 201113. Moreover,
the negative relationship is entirely driven by the Netherlands and
Germanywithout them, the line of best t becomes vertical, suggesting no
relationship.
What light does this shed on TARGET as an insurance mechanism or risk-
sharing channel? Against what risk does TARGET protect if it is a conduit for
capital ight? And is this insurance in the public interest of any member state?
289
DE 300000
200000
Change in TARGET balances
IR
GR
PTLU NE 100000
ITSP BE
FR FI
AT
SP
FR FI AT
IT BE 0
PT LU NE
GR
IR 100000
200000
DE
300000
300000 200000 100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000
Cumulative current-account balances
200810 201113
Figure 9.8. Current-account balances and TARGET balances for EA-12, 200813, in
millions (annual data)
Source: AMECO, University of Osnabrck (<http://eurocrisismonitor.com>); own calculations
After all, one might see economic value in a payments system that protects
trade between the members of a monetary union against the disruption from
nancial instability. But such value is not obvious if it protects presumably
wealthier sections of society and banks whose ight triggered the nancial
instability in the rst place. It might lead to regressive redistribution: the main
beneciaries of the Bundesbanks TARGET claims would be banks in Germany
and other rich member states (Cecchetti et al. 2012: 78; Hobza and Zeugner
2014a: 12). They withdrew from Southern European countries while German,
Dutch, and Finnish export surpluses could still materialize. In line with this
argument, Mody and Bornhorst (2012) show that capital-account balances
were much more volatile than current-account balances. In particular, Ger-
manys nancial ows to the periphery exceeded the latters nancing needs
for the bilateral current-account balance before 2007 and fell short of the need
for trade nance thereafter, a nding that is more generally elaborated in
Chen et al. (2012: 1922). It would go against the notion of insurance and
risk sharing, as understood here, if TARGET were indeed a regressive transfer
mechanism, beneting Germany, possibly Finland, the Netherlands, and
Luxembourg while the crisis-stricken member states still experienced the full
disruption of capital ight.
If capital ight was occurring, the nancial exposure of creditor countries
banks and residents should have declined rapidly. A new database created by
Hobza and Zeugner (2014b) from the European Commission allows us to
290
decipher the asset holdings of major creditor countries in Ireland and the
Southern European countries between 2010 and 2012. Their database shows
privately held stocks and their annual changes as well as the bilateral stock
holdings created by ofcial assistance via ESM/EFSF programs and the govern-
ment bond-buying program of the ECB.
The share that countries receive in stabilization programs is known, while it
has to be estimated which (mostly Southern) European Treasury bonds were
bought by the ECB under its SMP. Those member states whose bonds were not
bought are then considered holders of the SMP bonds according to their share
in the capital of the ECB (Hobza and Zeugner 2014a: 7). Similarly, TARGET
balances are assigned to bilateral holdings as if the ECB were a mutual fund.
Thus, if 21 percent of all TARGET liabilities are owed by Spain, 21 percent of
TARGET claims by Germany are assumed to be held vis--vis Spain. This is an
admissible macroeconomic interpretation of TARGET claims, but it eliminates
from the picture the ECB as an entity with its own nancial-legal status.17
But the ECB is such an entity, and this means that, if the debtor countries
could not honor the TARGET debt in the case of a break-up of the euro area,
Germany would not lose all its TARGET claims but only its share in the paid-
up capital of the ECB, which is 27 percent (Buiter and Rahbari 2012: 5).
Asset holdings of two groups of countriesthe six countries exposed to
bond market attacks and the rest of the euro areaare shown in Figure 9.9.
Holdings in a pre-crisis year (2006) are compared with those with the height of
the North Atlantic and the EA crisis (200912). Figure 9.9 shows that overall
asset holdings of the rest of the EA in Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal,
and Spain do not fall during the nancial crisis. A rise of ofcial claims slightly
overcompensates for the decline in private debt, from a peak of 2.386 trillion
in 2009 to 1.778 trillion in 2012. Equity stays fairly constant, which conrms
the expectation in the risk-sharing literature that equity is a (more) reliable
source of private insurance than debt. The ofcial interventions through
stabilization programs by the EU (with the IMF as the junior partner), the
SMP of the ECB, and nally TARGET expand rapidly. There was an astonish-
ing mobilization of ofcial funds within just a few years. Of these ofcial
nancial stocks, TARGET claims comprise a substantial, albeit falling share,
from 100 percent in 2009 to just over 75 percent in 2012, when the remainder
is made up of funds from stabilization programs (14 percent) and the SMP (10
percent).
A closer look at the exposure of Germany shows that, by 2012, Germany
counts for less than 14 percent of equity in these troubled countries (slightly
down from 16 percent in 2006) and for almost 30 percent of private debt
17
Personal communication with Stefan Zeugner, November 2014.
291
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2006 2009 2010 2011 2012
Equity Official Private debt
Figure 9.9. Financial assets held by rest of the EA in Ireland and Southern Europe, in
millions
Source: Hobza and Zeugner (2014b); own calculations
(slightly up from its pre-crisis share: 26.9 percent in 2006, 28.4 percent in
2012). The credit claims correspond fairly closely to Germanys economic size
in GDP terms while the country is underrepresented in equity terms, indicat-
ing that the country acquires its claims through trade, not so much through
foreign direct investment. However, Germany held almost 63 percent of all
ofcial claims of the rest of the EA in 2012. This is largely due to its high net
TARGET claims (almost 70 percent of all TARGET claims) that are attributed to
it by the Hobza and Zeugner (2014a) methodology. Together, these gures
mean that there was capital ight by German banks but not more than by the
rest of the EA banks generally. TARGET was the vehicle for all of them to
reduce their exposure.
This nding can be supported by looking at how the exposure of German
banks to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain relates to the change in
German TARGET balances during the North Atlantic nancial crisis and then
the EA crisis (Figure 9.10).18 While there was no relationship in 20079, the
line for 201012, with a slope of over 2, suggests that TARGET balances did not
merely compensate for the exit of German banks: the TARGET balances
changed more than can be explained by German banks reducing their expos-
ure to the distressed countries. There must have been ight into the Bundes-
bank by banks resident in other countries.
18
The data for bank exposures are from the quarterly reports of the Bank for International
Settlement, aggregated to annual changes in stocks.
292
140000
120000
Changes in German TARGET claims
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
20000
40000
60000
Change in exposure of German banks
200709 201012
Figure 9.10. Changes in German bank exposure to GIIPS and TARGET claims on GIIPS,
in millions
Source: BIS consolidated banking statistics (ultimate risk basis), University of Osnabrck (<http://
www.eurocrisismonitor.com>); own calculations
Note: GIIPS stands for Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Each data point represents a year-
country combination, so there are ve data points per year and each country has six data points
(200712)
So TARGET was denitely a conduit for capital ight of banks. There are losers
from this: Mabbett and Schelkle (2015) argue that it was not the lack of
exchange rate adjustment but the exodus of banks at the height of the
Greek crisis that contributed to the countrys drop in GDP being so much
deeper than in Hungary and Latvia where international banks were kept in.
Bastasin (2012: 21718) claims that an agreement between heads of state at
the May 2010 Council to lean on domestic banks and commit them to staying
in Greece for three years was broken by French banks; once the Bundesbank
revealed the condential information that French banks were selling their
Greek bonds to the ECB under the SMP, other banks felt no longer bound by
their promises which were in any case not legally enforceable. Greek banks
could substitute borrowing from the central bank for the ight of deposits, but
the withdrawal of international banks still meant a credit crunch for Greek
business.
This bleak message speaks to the question of whether the insurance of
TARGET destroys or at least weakens the signaling function by markets,
namely that debt has to be reduced because private investors are no longer
willing to hold it. While one might not be too worried about this disempower-
ment of markets after they failed so badly, there is still the problem that
ofcial holders of Greek and other countries debt are not willing to hold it
293
indenitely. So, if market signals do not work, all the adjustment has to be
imposed by political means, namely conditionality attached to assistance
(Section 6.1.2). This would hardly be an encouraging prospect for further
European integration.
However, the protection that TARGET provides in the case of capital ight
does not immunize economies from market signals. Both the ight from
deposits and a withdrawal of claims by international banks made domestic
nancial institutions lose their sources of funding.19 Given the breakdown of
the interbank market, they faced an extreme version of funding illiquidity,
which means that borrowing from alternative sources was prohibitively
expensive and drove them to the central bank. They could try to sell assets
but they were also up against low liquidity of markets indicated by a sharp fall
in prices of assets offered for sale. The re sale of assets can spread the
difculties of some banks to the nancial system as a whole: the decline of
asset prices reduces the equity of all banks, even if they are not connected
through direct lending and borrowing to each other. This tends to lead to a
secondary round of re sales, amplifying the negative externality on all others
(Whelan 2014b: 87). The more the value of assets falls, the higher the prob-
ability that banks which had initially only a liquidity problem become insolv-
ent. Negative equity forces any bank to stop trading.
Before it comes to that, banks are likely to reduce new lending to business
directly. The knock-on effects of funding illiquidity can include stopping the
rolling over and extension of short-term credit lines, notably cancelling the
overdraft facilities that non-nancial rms need for daily business. Credit
access helps them to meet their own payment obligations (wages, inputs)
when payments from customers do not coincide. In recessions, such mis-
match in payments is likely to become worse as hard-pressed customers, not
least from the public sector, tend to postpone payment. The arrears and unmet
short-term credit needs of rms are major reasons why recessions can become
entrenched and lead to prolonged stagnation. A credit crunch may turn this
into a wave of insolvency in the wider economy.20
TARGET, and the ECB interventions which it transmitted, could help with
funding liquidity and thus rein in the fall in asset prices. To the extent that
savers and investors are assured that they can exit at short notice and return
without penalty, TARGET helped to retain trust in the currency if not in the
19
See Brunnermeier et al. (2009: 1318) for an intricate analysis of this amplifying dynamic of
asset price falls when banks experience funding and market illiquidity. The alternative view is
summarized by Westermann (2014: 11821) who stresses the policy failure (dynamic
inconsistency and risk shifting) that results from maintaining payments despite capital ight.
20
In Southern Europe, widespread insolvencies were prevented in the rst instance by the
prevalence of widespread self-employment in family businesses: personal savings compensated
for negative equity (Creditreform 2012: 57). But these savings run out, of course, if stagnation
continues.
294
banks of some countries. While it was a vehicle for capital ight, the quick
unwinding of positions as shown in Figure 9.10 also suggests that this was a
reversible process. TARGET thus helped to deal with the crisis on the liabilities
side of banks (Brunnermeier et al. 2009: 16) which is crucial. But the payments
system could not stop the credit crunch for the wider economy. It is one thing
to help banks not to cut overdrafts immediately; it is quite another to extend
credit for new business activity in an economy mired in recession. Hence, the
protection given by TARGET did not neutralize the effects of capital ight, as
the Spanish trade balance (Figure 9.7) illustrates. In fact, one might argue that
TARGET cannot give enough protection in that it can do little to prevent the
fall-out from capital ight onto credit to non-nancial rms.
9.3.3 Hedging against the Break-Up of the Euro Area?

Capital ight was not conned to banks inside the EA, but the moves made by
nancial institutions to reduce their exposure to the ve or six beleaguered
member states were particularly strong. Cecchetti et al. (2012: 912) present
circumstantial evidence that non-euro banks, mainly from the UK, instructed
their subsidiaries to reduce their asset holdings in Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Portugal, and Spain while they maintained their funding (deposit) base in
those countries. With these funds, UK banks bought Treasury bonds in the
core instead, again using their subsidiaries inside the EA. For example, the
Spanish subsidiary of a UK bank bought Bunds, funded by Spanish deposits
and possibly credit from the Eurosystem, while the German subsidiary held
the payment it received from the Spanish partner institution as excess reserves
in the Bundesbank. The authors emphasize that this capital ow reversal via
TARGET cannot have been triggered by perceived credit risk since UK banks
maintained their stakes in their periphery subsidiaries.
These operations of UK banks amounted to hedging against the break-up of
the euro. In the event of break-up, the assets in the core were likely to revalue
while the liabilities in the periphery were expected to devalue. Hedging was
better conducted through subsidiaries residing in the EA rather than through
the headquarters in London: the management presumably feared that in the
case of a break-up, banks established inside the EA would be treated more
favorably than those from outside (Cecchetti et al. 2012: 1011; Chen et al.
2012: 20). Figures 9.11 and 9.12 provide evidence, showing how UK banks
increased their exposure to the German public sector dramatically, if only
temporarily. At the same time, the overall exposure to the ve countries under
siege dropped, albeit less dramatically (Figure 9.11). With the exception of
Ireland, UK banks shunned the periphery public sector in particular, and this
tended to be persistent (Figure 9.12).
295
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2005-Q1
2005-Q4
2006-Q3
2007-Q2
2008-Q1
2008-Q4
2009-Q3
2010-Q2
2011-Q1
2011-Q4
2012-Q3
2013-Q2
2014-Q1
GR: Greece IE: Ireland IT: Italy
PT: Portugal ES: Spain DE: Germany
Figure 9.11. Exposure of UK banks on an ultimate risk basis (in millions)

Source: BIS consolidated banking statistics; own calculations
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2010-Q4
2011-Q1
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2013-Q1
Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Germany
Figure 9.12. Share of UK bank exposure to public sectors (in percentages), 2010-Q4 to
2014-Q1
Source: BIS consolidated banking statistics; own calculations
296
This situation arose in the six months before ECB President Mario Draghi gave
his momentous speech to an investment bankers forum in London, assuring
them that the ECB would do whatever it takes to save the euro (Draghi
2012).21 At the same time, the TARGET debate reached boiling point in
Germany. It is arguable that Draghis speech, announcing a new monetary
instrument full of legal uncertainties, could not have achieved quite the
impact it did if there had not been an institution to underpin his claim.
TARGET processed the capital ight to hedge against redenomination risk
but also prevented it from causing massive disruption. The underlying risk, a
break-up of the EA, was beyond any market actors control; yet collective panic
could bring it about. TARGET was an insurance mechanism that helped to
sustain the euro despite an existential threat (Bordo 2014).
9.4 TARGET and the Political Economy of Insurance
Contrary to what the heated debate about TARGET imbalances conveyed, the
European payments system provided insurance services to a diversity of users.
It was neither a progressive nor a regressive transfer mechanism, but spread
the risk from a breakdown of interbank lending across the Eurosystem of
central banks, just as ISA did in the US. The diversity of users was not simply
a matter of core and periphery (Buiter and Rahbari 2012: 48). The cross-border
exchange of claims and liabilities beneted current-account surplus and def-
icit countries, wealth holders and trading companies, domestic savers and
foreign investors, euro and non-euro area banks. For some, the value of the
insurance consisted in maintaining trade ows and in permitting gradual
adjustment to a breakdown of credit. For others, the value of insurance was
the ability to secure property rights despite the increasing fragility of the
domestic banking system and a non-negligible probability that the currency
union could break up.
When the accident of a collapse of interbank markets happened and
affected so many, TARGET performed the functions that markets no longer
performed. In normal times, debt nance is a private form of risk sharing. For
example, trade nance allows exporting rms to pass on their claim with the
associated credit risk to a bank, rather than have to lend to importers them-
selves. Yet, as the literature discussed in Chapter 3 explained, risk sharing
through debt tends to fail when it is needed most. Equity markets spread the
risk among all shareholders but they cannot provide certain services, such as
21
See Section 7.2.2 for an analysis of the OMT program and the political context of this
speech.
297
short-term trade nance. And sharp movements of share prices can become
the transmission mechanism for banking crises.
Systemic market failure is always the result of interdependent risks.
A sudden stop of trade nance, capital ight, and the potential break-up of
the euro were the interdependent risks that materialized after 2008: when
interbank markets froze, trade nance became more difcult immediately and
capital ight gradually more opportune. By 2012, the specter of EA dissolution
was raised: this in turn gave more reason for capital ight and reluctance to
nance trade with certain countries. In the US, the fall in the price of securities
had the same effect, confronting investment banks with acute funding
illiquidity that made them sell assets, depressing the price of securities and
other shares further, rendering markets illiquid (Brunnermeier and Sannikov
2013: 3549). No private insurance can deal with such interdependent risks
since the insurers themselves become victims of the market sentiment that
gives rise to the insurance claims against them.
TARGET insures a system, it does not make pay-outs or even grant particular
awards. For the political economy of insurance, this is key to understanding
the puzzles mentioned in the introduction: why was TARGET not subject to
political market failure even when the arcane institution was attacked severely
in Germany and apparent exposure extremely high? The US comparison is
instructive for answering this question: no such public debate about ISA
imbalances occurred in the US. They created no excitement even among
Republican members of Congress and Tea Party members who watched
every move of the Federal Reserve with utmost suspicion (Broz 2013: 238).
In his extremely useful report on how ISA works, Wolman (2013: 128) inserted
an interesting thought experiment: would the accumulation of balances by
the New York Fed create the same uproar . . . that it has created in Europe if
these balances were not annually redressed? He gives two reasons for why this
is unlikely. First of all, Federal Reserve districts do not correspond to national
or even state borders. And second, the accumulation of ISA balances in New
York does not reect a strong economy but its status as a nancial center.
It is tempting to read this as the reasoning of a realist political economist:
like it or not, the EA is a monetary union of nation states that represent the
interests, rst and foremost, of domestic constituencies. The union and its
nationalist discontents will always come to the fore and trump collective
action in a crisis. US history provides some counter-evidence to this nation-
state-centric realism, however: the attempt of the Chicago Fed and other
district central banks in 1933 to protect their gold reserves by not accepting
checks from New York at par shows that quiet cooperation is not guaranteed
even if members are part of a larger political union. This happened even
though districts were as unrelated to federal state boundaries then as they
are now. The institutions of federal monetary policymaking before the 1935
298
Act provided both incentives and the capacity for non-cooperation

(Eichengreen et al. 2014: 1819).
Furthermore, while the uproar against TARGET occurred in a strong econ-
omy of the union, it neither originated nor resonated in the corridors of power
in Berlin and Frankfurt. In what might be seen as counter-evidence, a leaked
letter by the Bundesbank President to the ECB in February 2012 actually just
reiterated Jens Weidmanns well-known request that collateral standards in
renancing operations should be raised (Ruhkamp 2012). His newspaper
article on Whats behind TARGET2 balances? shortly afterwards made in
essence the same point (Steen 2012). A rise in collateral standards, if under-
taken as requested, would have amounted to a general tightening of liquidity
provisions, among them bank credit for TARGET transactions. But it would
not have prevented TARGET from processing payments.
It is true that the central banks administering the European payments
system map onto member states: the Bundesbank is the German central
bank, the Banco de Espaa is the central bank of Spain. Yet, the underlying
bank claims and liabilities do not map onto member states: as outlined in the
context of Figures 9.10 and 9.11, a Bundesbank claim and a Banco de Espaa
liability can reect transactions between the German and the Spanish subsid-
iary of a UK bank. In other words, the banks responsible for the build-up of
TARGET claims by the Bundesbank were not all German banks. The infra-
structure of member central banks administering a payments system is used
freely by banks regardless of their national identity. And if losses from the UK
banks TARGET transactions were to materialize, they would be shared by all
central banks in the Eurosystem. In this deterritorialization, TARGET and
ISA are actually similar.
Hence, another than the realist explanation seems to be called for. The
theory of collective action as introduced in Chapter 2 suggests political market
failures, thwarted by the universal insurance character of the insurance pro-
vided. TARGET was designed as a cost-effective and robust unied payments
platform for cross-border transactions between private parties. It was not
designed as insurance of trade nance against capital ight. Yet it turned out
to have this universal collective insurance feature and this was quite import-
ant for its success: quasi-mandatory, basic in its benets, covering a broad
range of economic sectors against a risk that had not been anticipated and for
which coverage was not predened. It could therefore not only deal with
interdependent risks but also uncertainty. However, the social usefulness of
an institution as it has evolved to govern the commons is rarely the reason for
why it was created in the rst place. The by-product theory of collective action
tells us that TARGET had to be universal insurance by accident for it to come
about: ex ante, universalism is a demanding form of solidarity. It requires
considerable trust in other members and/or the robustness of the institution
299
since risk sharing is not conditional on prior contributions and not targeted
on the deserving. This should have made it susceptible to all kinds of political
market failure: from adverse selection (no prior contributions), moral hazard
(no co-payments), commitment (no targeting), and misperception (no target-
ing on the deserving).
The political campaign against TARGET in Germany was both an indication
of the commitment and the misperception problems that could have led to
changes in its set-up, for instance to prevent capital ight. It is likely that such
changes would have made capital ight worse, a point to which we come back
below. They did not come to pass. Ironically, this political robustness was in
all likelihood a consequence of the political attack on TARGET: it provoked a
very public defense from a wide variety of sources, not only the central banks
themselves but also scholars and journalists, not only in Europe but also in the
US. Thus, the payments system became a manifestation of monetary solidarity
in the sense of this study: it is now a deliberate institution of risk sharing that
has this function ofcially acknowledged and endorsed.
The political economy of insurance also helps us to explain more specic-
ally why German authorities were unresponsive to the TARGET debate and
did not question the rules of the payments system. Sub-groups within risk
pools are a threat to insurance if they can (a) identify their interests, for
instance as nation states, and if they can (b) act on their interests, for instance
because they are a strong economy. While current-account ows give rise to
identiable decit and surplus members, smooth processing of payments
benets exporters and importers alike. In the case of capital ight, it is even
difcult to identify the nationality of those on the run and the banks receiving
them, although the receding demand of German banks for Bundesbank credit
suggests that they were the main beneciaries of Germanys safe-haven status.
Hence, even though Germany is a strong economy and not a nancial center
that would necessarily welcome nancial inows, its government and mon-
etary authorities had no interest in disrupting a mechanism that was support-
ing its strong export economy and providing an exit route for its banks. Even
the prospect of losses in the case of major defaults of a banking system on
TARGET claims did not give the German authorities much cause for concern,
as every member is liable for their pro rata share in the loss (Buiter and Rahbari
2012: 56). In fact, it would be more plausible for other member states to rebel
against sharing in the loss, given that they did not benet from a safe-haven
status (and thus low interest rates and abundant credit) as did Germany. But
members interests were aligned as regards the desirability of maintaining a
functioning payments system and of preventing a break-up of the EA, in
which case TARGET losses would not be the major headache anyhow.
The safe-haven status of some members affected, however, the availability
of credit in other countries from which capital ed. This created pressure for
300
adjustment in countries with current-account decits. A credit squeeze would

reduce net imports over time. But this might not be the right amount of
pressure: the payments system may make capital ight much easier and
cheaper than it would be otherwise (Garber 2010: 5; De Grauwe 2011: 35),
inicting even more credit squeeze on countries already in dire straits. That
capital ight was cheap and easy is undeniable and the ip side of the insur-
ance service provided. The painful credit squeeze should lay to rest the ever
present concerns about moral hazard.
It is conceivable that the availability of insurance inside a monetary union
reduces the incentives for capital ight. At least this is what the theory of self-
fullling speculative currency attacks would lead one to expect, a literature
that ourished after the 19923 ERM crisis (e.g. Flood and Marion 1996;
Krugman 1996; Obstfeld 1996). Members of a pegged exchange rate regime
still have their own currencies, so the agreed parity can be doubted, however
xed it may seem. If asset holders come to expect a devaluation of the national
currency in some distant future, they will try to pre-empt others in order to
avoid the loss. Foreign exchange reserves are limited and can be expanded
only with the consent of other monetary authorities. Asset owners in a coun-
try with its own currency also know that the authorities are left largely on their
own in defending it. Hence they may fear the imposition of capital controls as
an emergency measure and thus try to get out before they are imposed. If some
asset owners get out, along with a sufcient number of like-minded asset
holders, they will bring about devaluation even if the parity was sustainable
absent an attack.
The incentivesand the abilityto impose capital controls existed even in
the EUs Single Market before a banking union came into force since 2014. As
outlined in Chapter 7, national authorities imposed hidden capital controls
through so-called liquidity ring fencing. Italian banks complained that the
German prudential supervisor Ban forced subsidiaries of Italian banks in
Germany to shore up their balance sheets instead of repatriating excess liquid-
ity to their Italian headquarters (Enrich and Galloni 2012; Arnold 2014). In
the absence of collective safety nets, national supervisors tried to protect their
domestic banking systems and thus created externalities for others. The
example also shows how this lack of coordination during a crisis leads to
risks being shifted onto the weakest parts of an incomplete union.
All three features of TARGET that prevent a self-fullling attackno depre-
ciation of the currency as long as the capital ight stays within the EA, no
limits on TARGET balances, and freedom of capital movementreduce the
incentives for capital ight that a functioning payments system otherwise
facilitates. In theory, it is not clear which effect dominated in the EA crisis
and more research is clearly needed. TARGETs ability to act as conduit for as
well as a disincentive to capital ight may have made it more robust as an
301
institution because this ambivalence gave all members a stake in it: it made it
even less clear ex ante who would benet most from the elastic liquidity
supply through TARGET.
The EAs payments system thus functioned like universal insurance that
covers both anticipated and unanticipated risks. Coverage is not based on
contributions but on membership. The payments system has created a com-
munity of risk different from the nation state while the insurance provided
does not depend on political union. In other words, TARGET served the
generalized and reciprocal self-interest (Baldwin 1990: 299) of member
states on which monetary solidarity rests.
302
10
The Experiment of the Euro
This book has proposed a theory of monetary integration that can explain
why diverse polities may want to use, and indeed came to use, a common
currency. Members of a monetary union can diversify risks to national income
that arise both from exogenous shocks and from nancial integration. Monetary
solidarity between geopolitical entities is, however, rarely the primary and
straightforward goal of currency unication. In the US, a common currency
was imposed on the defeated Southern parts of the nation and its services
adjusted to diverse regional needs in an extended trial and error process
(Chapter 4). Crucial elements of monetary solidarity, such as lending of last
resort and federal resolution of state banks, were established only as a conse-
quence of the Great Depression. In Europe, monetary integration came about
as the side effect of forces within national democracies trying to get more
favorable conditions for domestic business and employment; governments
supported this in their attempt to transform monetary constraints on domes-
tic policymaking (Chapter 5). The policy framework on which they could
agree was based on separate risk-allocation channels, with primarily the mon-
etary channel available for collective risk sharing. Fiscal and nancial chan-
nels were largely conned to reining in spillovers from domestic problems
(Chapter 6). The EA crisis has shaken this framework to the core. The need for
risk sharing has been explicitly acknowledged in two high-level reports (van
Rompuy et al. 2012; Juncker et al. 2015). Critics emphasize that there is still no
scal federation, but there has been substantial institution building including
some scal risk sharing (Chapter 7).
Reaping the benets of risk diversication requires collective action on a
continuous basis to govern the commons. As in all political integration,
citizens must tolerate that domestic policy choices may be constrained by
considerations of what they do to other members of the monetary union. In a
well-functioning union, they can expect reciprocal consideration from other
members. In the set-up of the EA, it was anticipated that a common monetary
policy would require national adaptation and scal demand management
have cross-border effects, but the externalities of nancial-sector regulation

and integration were underestimated. Coordination of these three policy
areasand their interfacesis essential for the functioning of monetary
unions between capitalist democracies, in which nancial markets are the
gatekeepers to investment and employment. The preceding discussion has
provided empirical evidence for this view not only from the crisis of the EA but
also the monetary-nancial history of the United States.
This evidence shows that, while political market failures can be overcome,
there are tradeoffs involved in their solutions and hence ongoing contestation
can be expected in the governance of the commons. A recurrent example in
both the euro and the dollar area was the tradeoff between addressing exter-
nalities, notably the negative feedback loop between failing banks and sover-
eigns, and avoiding moral hazard, specically scal proigacy or lax credit
practices. The more externalities are internalized through risk pooling, the
greater the risk of moral hazard, and vice versa. The protracted EA crisis
suggests that the monetary-nancial union of scally sovereign states errs
on the side of preventing moral hazard. The long drawn-out process of form-
ing a less crisis-prone US union indicates that coming down more on one or
the other side in this tradeoff entails a political process of trial and error that
might be shortened, but cannot be replaced, by expert-led policy advice.
The point of departure for this book was the case for diversity. The main
argument was that there is little room for risk sharing and monetary solidarity
without diversity of members. Yet, one may still wonder whether a monetary
union can cope with all kinds of diversity or whether there are limits. The rst
section addresses this question. In line with the political-economic paradox
of diversity, it argues that there are no limits as to how much economic
diversity can be accommodated, but political limits do exist. They affect the
risk-sharing mechanisms that authorities are able and willing to sustain.
The theory of rational interstate cooperation would lead us to expect that
the economic gains from diverse (heterogeneous) membership can be the
basis of cooperation, but it will be precarious. Alternatives exist to voluntary
cooperation between states, above all hegemony (Snidal 1995: 627).
The second section discusses what policy conclusions the risk-sharing
approach implies, in comparison with other major proposals. The suggestion
that the monetary union needs completion has been eloquently promoted
and theoretically well founded by De Grauwe (2013) as well as Jones and
Underhill (2014). A different emphasis can be found in a literature on tri-
lemmas of EA governance: it tries to identify sensible policy choices in the face
of conicting goals (Pisani-Ferry 2012; Obstfeld 2013). The discussion here
makes essentially two points. First of all, the promotion of monetary solidarity
is not the same as the pursuit of economic integration. Indeed, monetary
solidarity may be better served by the deliberate and coordinated segmentation
304
of nancial and labor markets. Nor does monetary solidarity require scal union
in the form of a central budget: partial scal risk sharing, particularly in the form
of insurance and reinsurance against bank failure, can contain the destabilizing
potential created by the dependence of nancial stability on scal resources
(the diabolic loop).
The last section explores two specic issues that European, in contrast to
international and comparative, political economy raises. There is rst the
time-honored problem of the EUs and the EAs democratic decit. Monetary
solidarity as a by-product of currency union is not legitimated by a democratic
process. In the context of US monetary-nancial history, I have argued that
governing the commons is inherently a process of political integration. But
this does not mean that political integration necessarily occurs by democratic
means: it can occur by accepting the jurisdiction of a transnational court or
enhancing the powers of a supranational central bank. Such political integra-
tion has to draw on other principles of legitimation than democracy, notably
mutual advantage. While this is primarily the basis for the legitimacy of
market-type exchanges, we nd it in other forms of collective action, notably
welfare-state programs and corporatism (Baldwin 1990; Lijphart and Crepaz
1991). It is crucial, if this form of legitimation is relied on, to leave members
plenty of leeway for national representation and reasonable disagreement
(Bellamy and Weale 2015).
The second issue of European political economy concerns the role of expert-
ise in European policymaking. Because there is limited democratic contest-
ation by government and opposition at the EU level, expert policy advice in
European political economy often falls on fertile ground. The latest fashion in
academic analysis quickly nds its way into the corridors of Brussels; risk
sharing is no exception (Juncker et al. 2015). This places a particular demand
on the political dimension of academic political economy. It is part of the
research effort of expert advisors to recognize how the adoption of their ideas
will be affected by the incentives and constraints of policy actors.
10.1 Diversity as Economic Opportunity and Political Challenge
The protagonists of European as well as US monetary integration were fully

aware of the diversity that characterized the prospective members of each
union: the mottos of unity in diversity (EU) and e pluribus unum (US)
indicate as much. In the US, politically salient diversity was framed around the
difference between agricultural-rural states and states dominated by industry
and commerce. The underlying economic split of interest was that the
regional economies of the South and West depended on elastic seasonal credit
while the Northern and Eastern states preferred long-term nominal stability, a
305
split which had particular implications for the choice of currency regime
(Frieden 2015a: 50). In Western Europe, salient differences were ination
performance and current-account positions. These created different vulner-
abilities to exchange rate instability, especially when the US dollar weakened
against the D-Mark (James 2012: 343). This could be framed as an under-
lying split between political economies dominated by export sectors, which
favored low ination and stable exchange rates, and those dominated by
domestically oriented employment, which favored the easy pass-through of
rising costs into prices and adjustable exchange rates. This is the split that
the comparative capitalisms literature stresses (Hall 2012; Iversen et al. 2016;
Johnston 2016). A somewhat less salient split was that between rich and
poor members, between those with a tendency to stagnate at a high level,
and those hoping to catch up in leaps and bounds. The latter split became
ever more important with Southern and Eastern enlargement of the EU and
can explain why some new EU member states were so keen to join the EA
even during the crisis.
Obviously, diversity makes for different interests in and expectations about
the benets from monetary integration. These differences can be made com-
patible, but this takes work. Institutional development in the US dollar area
eventually reconciled monetary stability and growth-enhancing credit supply,
but such reconciliation did not occur until the post-war era, after the specie
standard was abolished and new practices of monetary policy, oriented to
macroeconomic stabilization, became established. National money and
nance became much less divisive. The exchange rate regime of Bretton
Woods laid the foundation of the dollars exorbitant privilege,1 which has
survived into the post-Bretton Woods period. In the EA, the compatibility of
low ination and low (market) interest rates was a decisive precondition for
a diverse membership to sign up to the experiment of the euro (Section 5.1).
Old divisions between hard- and soft-currency areas were thus reformulated
and transformed into benets for both sides. This transformation does not
do away with old tensions, although they may become more muted as new
divisions and tensions emerge.
The comparative capitalisms literature notes two divisions that are sup-
posedly impossible to reconcile without profoundly altering one regime
(Section 6.2.2). First, member states in the North and South allegedly have
structurally high or low ination rates, due to different wage-bargaining
regimes that give priority to exposed or sheltered sectors (Carlin 2013;
Johnston 2012). Real interest rates then become too low for the inationary
members, fueling asset bubbles, and too high for the stable member
1
The term was coined by Valry Giscard dEstaing in the mid-1960s, when he was French
nance minister (Canzoneri et al. 2013: 2n).
306
economies, leading to stagnation. A second and closely related division is that

they supposedly run either current-account surpluses or decits due to insti-
tutions that foster or hinder developing competitive industries. One could add
to this other apparent incompatibilities. Member states differ in the role that
the nancial system plays in supporting growth: patient capital is conducive
to steady but relatively low growth, while impatient capital may lead to high
average but volatile growth that affords high-risk premia.
These analyses take outcomes like ination and current-account balances as
indicators of institutions that embed certain preferences or tastes. But this
ignores the ways that policymakers, especially those under devaluation pres-
sures, used to engineer regime changes through currency unication, and
thereby change historic ination and current-account outcomes. In this
they partly succeeded, as the following balance sheet indicates:
A common monetary policy can achieve a downward convergence of
ination rates, while at the same time former high-ination countries
benet from low real interest rates for businesses and households. This is
exactly what happened, albeit at the cost of nancial instability in boom-
ing regions and low investment in stagnating regions (Sections 5.1.2
and 7.1).
Real interest rates fell to historically low levels for all EA members,
although more so for the member states that later got into difculties
than the others (Figure 5.1). This manifestation of the Walters effect was
an endogenous risk of the hard currencys success. It does not have to lead
to boom-bust cycles but can be reined in by macroprudential policies,
counter-cyclical property taxation, and long-term measures such as hous-
ing policies and urban planning. Large heterogeneous currency areas like
the US and the UK have always been subject to regional Walters effects
(Section 6.2.2). Low interest rates can spur catch-up growth and afford a
longer-term horizon of investments, although at the cost of a higher risk
that all ends in a regional bust.
Permanent current-account surpluses and decits have the potential to
induce crises, but it is important to understand why they occur. Regions
in which indigenous producers keep on losing out against import com-
petition will become poor, but they will not become bankrupt unless the
imbalances are nanced. Capital ows sustained very large imbalances in
the EA, leading policymakers to call for new early warning mechanisms,
such as the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure, in the absence of
exchange rate pressures. When capital ows were reversed and interbank
markets froze, the common payments system protected member states
against a sudden stop of trade nance despite the vast imbalances and the
ensuing credit crunch (Chapter 9).
307
The US experience shows how the end of a credit boom and collapse of
asset prices can be prevented from spilling over into state public nances:
lending of last resort to the sovereign and federal resolution capacities for
state banks were decisive interventions that were and are still not avail-
able in the EA (Chapter 4). The EA has now introduced elements of a
banking union that explicitly address the negative feedback loop,
although they have not provided full scal backing for the ECB or the
Single Resolution Mechanism. To keep boom-bust cycles at bay, the EA
will have to suppress growth, which given current high debt levels runs
the risk of long drawn-out stagnation weighed down by heavy debt
service (Sandbu 2015: 10617). The slow-motion crash of Italys banking
system, noticeable since 2016, is driven by a rising level of non-
performing loans, an ominous sign of problems ahead.
Growth patterns can change and do change despite the institutional
forces emphasized (for valid reasons) by the comparative capitalism
literature. After World War II, West Germany was a debtor nation (to
the tune of 8590 percent of GDP, all external) and by 1951 it seemed
to have fallen back into its structural decit position of the pre-war
years (Ritschl 2012: 867). It was given a fresh start through a generous
debt-relief program and subsequently became a permanent surplus coun-
try until German unication led to a domestic investment boom in the
1990s. Ireland has undergone similar fundamental change in its growth
pattern, and developed from a poverty-stricken net emigration country to
a magnet for people and rms to feed its phenomenal catch-up growth.
These arguments suggest that there is no such thing as a Southern European

growth regime that could not be accommodated within the existing EA.
Section 6.1 argued in some detail that the ve countries which actually needed
external assistance were quite different in the run-up to their crises. They
obviously had vulnerabilities that nancial markets picked up for a reason;
but so did countries like Belgium that were spared an attack in bond markets.
And vulnerabilities could have quickly developed for supposedly strong econ-
omies, like Austria, France, and Germany, the banking systems of which held
large claims on Southern and Eastern Europe.
This is not to say that all is well with risk diversication in the EA: market
interest rates were arguably too low for former high-ination countries
(Walters effect), destabilizing them in the process, given that no other meas-
ures were taken or pro-cyclical public expenditure even fueled the bubble. This
had its counterpart in US states like Nevada. Moreover, payments systems like
TARGET and ISA cannot prevent capital ight; they actually make ight easier
(if also more easily reversible), forcing debtor countries into one-sided adjust-
ment. Again, the EA is not unique in this respect. Of the twenty OECD regions
308
that fared worst between 2000 and 2010, Michigan had the sharpest drop
in per capita income and three more US states feature in the list (OECD
2014b: 41).2
The upshot is that there is no diversity that cannot, in principle, provide an
opportunity for mutually benecial risk sharing. Imbs and Mauro (2007; see
also Callen et al. 2015) tried to nd out which groups of countries would
benet most from risk sharing. This would come about by their citizens
holding and consuming out of identically structured portfolios of assets. If
one member experienced a decline in national output growth, national
income would be topped up by the booming economies in the risk pool. It
follows that the portfolio should comprise assets from countries with the most
asynchronous (negatively correlated) business cycles, as this maximizes the
benets from pooling. The computations for a world sample of over seventy
countries, using output growth rates as the measure of volatility, nd quite
sizeable diversication benets. The biggest gains result from pooling with
countries from other continents and with very different income levels. For
instance, a sample of greatly beneting countries includes Columbia and
Costa Rica but also New Zealand and Sweden (Imbs and Mauro 2007: 15,
223). The same holds for exchange reserve pooling arrangements between
emerging market groups: there are much lower undiversiable exchange
rate risks if pools are created across continents rather than regionally. However,
these potential members of a risk pool have to consider the enforcement
costs necessary to ensure that booming economies really compensate those in
a recession (Imbs and Mauro 2007: 7). The authors reckon that the difculties
of enforcement are likely to deter such arrangements across continents and
income levels (Imbs and Mauro 2007: 379). For instance, it could easily be
portrayed as unfair if booming Columbia had to compensate recessionary
Sweden. The perceived unfairness of an insurance arrangement is likely to affect
enforceability between very unequal parties.
It is thus politically very unlikely that the maximum economic benets
from risk sharing can ever be realized. In this political sense, diversity limits
risk sharing and solidarity. The post-crisis distinctions between a periphery
and a core, South and North of the EA, GIPISC and the rest, stand for this
politically constraining take on diversity. This political-economic paradox
that the more benecial risk diversication would be, the less likely it is to
come about, could be detected in the management of the crisis through crisis,
or failing forward as Jones et al. (2016) put it succinctly. Monnets curse that
2
The US states adjusted largely through (less) labor utilization, in contrast to (lower) labor
productivity. In fact, in Georgia, South Carolina, and Ohio workers were red faster than rms
revenues declined, raising labor productivity in the process. Interestingly, Spanish regions and the
Algarve in Portugal showed the same pattern. French and Italian regions adjusted largely by rms
hoarding labor which came at the cost of productivity per worker.
309
Europe will be forged in crisis materialized in the sense that there was not
simply failure to address the crisis. Rather, solutions were achieved: the EA did
not break up and a banking union and various other institutions were created.
But these reforms reected the concerns and domestic constraints of those
providing guarantees: renewed commitments to scal restraint were intro-
duced and strong precautions against moral hazard were taken by imposing
high political costs on borrowers under conditional lending programs.
Furthermore, the threat of nancial market discipline has been maintained,
insofar as all reforms stopped short of putting two effective circuit breakers for
negative bank-sovereign feedback loops in place: joint scal backing for the
ECB and for the Single Resolution Mechanism. Not all of these limits on risk
sharing were imposed by governments. In the case of the OMT, analyzed
in Section 7.2.2, popular resistance materialized in the involvement of
Germanys constitutional court. Its decision put the Bundesbank in a very
strong position to determine the specics of the program.
The outcome of crisis management was a limited form of monetary solidarity.
One alternative is that a hegemonic power takes on the task of stabilization
and contributes disproportionately to it. The German government was reluc-
tant to ll this role (Bulmer and Paterson 2013), constrained as it was by weak
international legitimacy and domestic opposition. The Merkel government
insisted that every contingent commitment of scal resources, such as sover-
eign bailouts and bank resolution, was based on institutionalized burden
sharing according to the key provided by the share in the ECBs paid-up
capital (Section 7.2). For their part, other governments resisted Germanys
substantial inuence, suggesting that hegemony is also affected by the
political-economic paradox of diversity: economic strength cannot overcome
resistance to alien power. Germanys reluctance to take on a disproportionate
burden, and the reluctance of other members to accept German hegemony,
ensured that monetary solidarity was the only way forward.
But political market failures can still undermine the environment in which
risk sharing is mutually benecial. There is the inclination of the fortunate to
renege on their commitments as well as the tendency to see the others as the
authors of their misfortunes. There is always some risk taking that may have
been incentivized by the availability of a safety net and can be portrayed as moral
hazard if things go wrong.3 Moreover, the characteristics of another members
political economy that are different tend to be perceived as responsible for any
3
Westermann (2014: 121) species the tragedy in the context of TARGET as follows: Let us
consider the national central banks (or national regulators) decision problem when assessing
whether a private bank is solvent or not: it will compare the marginal benet of not having to
bear the resolution cost for taxpayers, with the average cost, which might occur in terms of
ination, or write-downs on losses at the later stage. The former (ination) would spread across
Europe in an integrated economy, and the latter (losses) will be shared with the ECBs capital key.
310
calamity that befalls them. Support is then made conditional on these charac-
teristics being transformed: all have to converge on some best practice
(Juncker et al. 2015: 4; van Rompuy et al. 2012: 9).
The tendency to regulate other members in ones own (idealized) image is a
symptom of political market failures. Indicators of this tendency included
structural conditionality in bailout programs, which had little to do with the
underlying causes of the countrys nancial difculties (Section 6.1.2), and the
tightening up of scal surveillance (Section 7.2.1). It created the impression
that a German consensus was taking hold of the EA (Bronk and Jacoby 2013:
209; Blyth 2013). These political processes may mean that diversity in a
heterogeneous union diminishes over time.
The risk-sharing perspective on international cooperation suggests that it
is imperative for the pool to maintain the diversity it has. Existing arrange-
ments must nurture diversity for its own sake but also in order to keep up
the rationale for collective action. Bronk and Jacoby (2013) endorse mutual
recognition and the open method of coordination on these grounds. Franzese
and Mosher (2002) argue that trade and capital ows reinforce domestic
institutional equilibria counteracting convergence. If so, institutional inertia
and economic rationale are aligned. But political market failures work against
these diversity-preserving forces.
It will be crucial to dispel the impression of one-sided transfers, in other
words that only the South would gain from the risk-sharing arrangement or
that the North has written all the rules in its favor. This was the lesson that
can be taken from the example of TARGET: its insurance benets were hard to
pin down and so widespread that very diverse members had a stake in it.
A migration regime can be set up such that it strikes a balance between more
and less well-off member states. In migration, rules need to compromise
between the imperative to rejuvenate the workforce and receive impulses for
social innovation, on the one hand, and the desire to give additional oppor-
tunities to young people who cannot nd adequate training and employment
at home on the other. Similarly, banking regulation can nd a compromise
that gives (less than full) protection to creditors and debtors.
10.2 Policy Implications
The political economy of solidarity has two policy implications that differ
signicantly from other approaches. First, diversity has to be fostered rather
than eliminated. Second, solidarity does not necessarily require ever closer
union, meaning ever more integration and centralized policy capacity. On
the contrary, it can mean foregoing more integration so as not to jeopardize
the risk sharing achieved. This can be illustrated with the arguments about
311
nancial integration and migration developed earlier in the book. The discus-
sion in previous chapters has also raised doubts about whether more integra-
tion in the guise of a full scal union with a common budget would necessarily
improve monetary solidarity.
These policy implications can be contrasted with others in the literature.
They fall into two categories. One seeks to complete the incomplete policy
architecture of the EA. Jones and Underhill (2014: 11) develop a theory that
sees nancial integration as the ultimate goal of currency unication and
identify six crucial institutions of Optimal Financial Areas.4 They support
their theory with historical case studies of Canada, the UK, and the US to show
how (a functional equivalent of) the six institutions emerged. While none of
them is perfect, Canada comes close (Jones and Underhill 2014: 278, 32,
367). Similarly, De Grauwe (2013) analyzes the design failures of the EA. He
considers two in particular: national economies still experience boom-bust
cycles that were not disciplined into a union-wide dynamic and probably
even exacerbated by the one-size-has-to-t-all monetary policy (De Grauwe
2013: 67). At the same time, currency unication has taken away national
lenders of last resort which can lead to self-fullling liquidity and solvency
crises. Completion requires a phasing in of banking and scal union, with the
important intermediary steps of the ECB acting as sovereign lender of last
resort and the adoption of mechanisms to force member states to symmetric
macroeconomic adjustment. This completion approach to monetary-
nancial integration rests on the idea of nalit, a normative benchmark of
a functioning union. The value of such studies is that they reveal how policy
choices are guided by an overall goal. However, even if everybody did share
the goal of ever closer union, this means very different things to different
decision makers.
An alternative to completion is to optimize a tradeoff by choosing consist-
ent combinations out of a trilemma. This is how two widely cited studies, one
by Pisani-Ferry (2012) and the other by Obstfeld (2013), proceeded. The new
impossible trinity5 that Jean Pisani-Ferry (2012: 89) considered consists of
the two norms of EA governance that there must not be monetary nancing of
public spending nor joint liability for public debt, alongside the fact of the
political, legal, and economic interdependence of national banks and national
public nances. It is consistent with the stability of the system to give up one
4
The notion of Optimal Financial Areas is a deliberate attempt by the authors to propose an
alternative to OCA theory. But the term does not do justice to the profound analysis of Jones and
Underhill (2014) in that it is based on studies of existing, non-optimal currency unions, not
deduced from some outdated economic model.
5
It builds on the old impossible trinity stipulated by Robert Mundell suggesting that it is
impossible to have simultaneously perfect capital mobility, stable exchange rates, and monetary
policy autonomy (Pisani-Ferry 2012: 8).
312
of these elements of the trinity. Financial stability could be secured by break-

ing the link between national banking and national budgets and supervision.
Sovereign debt crises could be prevented if the ECBs mandate was extended to
allow lending of last resort to sovereigns, giving up on the norm of no
monetary nancing, or if a scal union was created by giving up the no-
joint-liability norm. Pisani-Ferry believed, in January 2012, that scal union
was politically the most likely option; we have seen, however, that incomplete
versions of the other two have been partially realized instead, with the bank-
ing union agreed in June 2012 and the announcement of the OMT program a
few weeks later (Sections 7.2.2 and 7.2.3).
Obstfelds nancial-scal trilemma takes off from the observation that in
todays global nancial environment, nancial integration and stand-alone
national scal policy are not compatible with nancial stability (Obstfeld
2013: 24). Obstfeld endorses a mixture of banking and scal union, namely
centralized banking supervision and joint scal liability for bank bailouts as a
last-resort safety net when privately funded resolution mechanisms and
deposit insurance are overwhelmed (Obstfeld 2013: 3741; Shambaugh
2012: 2056). This analysis, like that of Pisani-Ferry, is helpful in focusing
on the hard policy choices facing decision makers and highlighting consider-
ations of political economy. But while trilemmas are of great didactic value,
they tend to become fuzzy and of little explanatory value when partial solu-
tions become inconsistently implemented as time moves on.
The approach taken in this book was to set out the logically complete
system of interfaces and channels of risk sharing that characterize any mature
currency union (Tables 4.1, 5.1, 7.1). It is in this respect similar to the com-
pletion approach, especially of the more institutionalist variant of Jones and
Underhill (2014).6 But the emphasis of the analysis is on the entries that are
left void and the risks that remain uninsured (Table 3.1). These aws by design
can be deliberate, in other words aws by design, as the fear of moral hazard
can justify less than complete insurance or the externality of market panic can
be used to reinforce fragile commitments to scal rules. Hence, the approach
concedes tradeoffs analogous to the impossible trinity framework. This
systemic perspective generates no expectation of a small nite number of
consistent policy choices, since the variety of political market failures and
their inherent tradeoffs leave more possibilities open. Even so, this approach
reveals risk-sharing priorities inherent in a policy framework, explains them in
terms of political market failures or compromises, and assesses their costs in
terms of missed risk-sharing opportunities.
6
A variant of the systemic approach is Dolls et al. (2016), focusing on scal risk sharing.
They start with a complete view of what a scal union can entail, along the lines of Fuest and
Peichl (2012).
313
10.2.1 Solidarity and Integration

The completion and impossible trinity perspectives converge on one
point: that any policy solution consists of more integration. The completion
approach would x the design failures of the EA with the adoption of more
common policies and institutions (De Grauwe 2013). Those focusing on
impossible trinities recommend choices that are more consistent with inte-
gration, which is taken as a fact. The thrust of Ostroms work on governing the
commons is, by contrast, to explore how collective solutions might be found
without ceding power to a central authority. These solutions rely on parties
recognition of their interdependence, which brings both the prospect of gains
from cooperation and the potential for conict. Dening boundaries is an
essential part of creating a sustainable commons, as much a result as a cause
of successful cooperation (Snidal 1995: 51). Outcomes do not necessarily
maximize gains from cooperation; rather, they nd arrangements which are
sustainable in terms of managing conict. The incompatible growth literature
points in a similar direction but suggests boundaries along country-regime
lines (Section 6.2.2) while my approach suggests boundaries with regard to
certain policy functions.
The creation and limitation of insurance pools reects this balancing of
cooperation and conict. Risk sharing provides a reason to participate, but
conicts readily arise over perceived moral hazard. Insurance is such a polit-
ical success, as the great sociologist and historian of insurance, Franois
Ewald, put it, because [i]nsurance provides for a form of association which
combines a maximum of socialization with a maximum of individualization.
It allows people to enjoy the advantages of association while still leaving
them the freedom to exist as individuals (Ewald 1991: 204). Participation is
sustained through generalized and reciprocal self-interest, not ethical beliefs
or community solidarity (Baldwin 1990: 299). By understanding cooperation
between states in this way, it is evident that limits on integration can be
necessary to maintain the common pool resource of a single currency and
the insurance that comes with it.
The endogenous nature of risks that may arise in nancial integration
implies that integration can become itself the source of risks, so more is not
always better. The adoption and extension of macroprudential policies exem-
plify this point. As outlined in Section 7.2.3, these measures try to prevent a
common shock from turning into a systemic crisis (Hanson et al. 2011: 5). The
turn to a macroprudential perspective follows from the insight that nancial
markets tend to cumulate risks due to their connectedness. Without appro-
priate safety nets and circuit breakers, nancial integration is therefore not
necessarily a channel of risk sharing but of shock propagation (Brunnermeier
et al. 2009). Macroprudential instruments try to segment nancial markets, by
314
setting stricter conditions on banks as regards capital or liquidity if a regional

market is overheating. Research done at the ECB suggests that macropruden-
tial tools can be used to tackle the EAs imbalances by enabling monetary
conditions to be differentiated along regional lines (Brzoza-Brzezina et al.
2013: 5). Monetary solidarity in this context means that authorities support
each others regulatory endeavors, imposing constraints such as capital sur-
charges on banks under their supervision if they might otherwise extend
credit to the overheating market in question. The Basel III framework, trans-
posed into EU legislation, requires exactly such collective action. It stipulates
policy coordination to prevent contagion through market integration.
Economic migration, regarded by the mainstream theory of monetary
integration as an adjustment mechanism replacing the exchange rate, is
another example in which sustainable risk sharing does not call for ever
closer market and policy integration. Full integration of labor markets, in
the sense of seamless migration, cannot be the maxim of social solidarity. If
we take regions rather than individuals as the unit of analysis, we see an
inherent regressive bias in migration that only the politically most unlikely
redistribution scheme could neutralize. The benets of migration accrue
predominantly to destination countries, after all they are destinations
because they offer more gainful opportunities. Origin countries lose, on
average, younger and better-educated members of the workforce, for whom
they provided child care and schooling and may later have to provide some
benets for their retirement. In other words, migrants tend to spend the
economically unproductive and scally expensive phases of life in their
home countries and thus disadvantage their home country further. All this
can be ameliorated, but research suggests that the net costs for origin coun-
tries are the mirror image of the net benets for destination countries
(Huber and Trondl 2012; Section 7.3). EU rules on exportability of benets
and non-discrimination of migrants and their families try to redress some of
the inherently regressive tendencies of migration, but this is controversial
and has to tread carefully or risk a backlash.
Most discussion of the effects of EU migration has focused on the destin-
ation countries:7 particularly on the question of whether migration under-
mines their welfare states and promotes a race to the bottom. The
integrationist solution would be to establish a common social security
system, operating through a central budget. In my view, this is no solution
at all, as it is politically unsustainable. It would at best be feasible at a low
common denominator. Furthermore, the existing EU rules which coordinate,
but do not harmonize, the social security systems of member states are
7
This is changing now, as the study of the IMF (Atoyan et al. 2016) indicates.
315
workable in contrast to what many critics say.8 The guiding principle is non-
discrimination to ensure that acquired entitlements can be exported and
individuals with a real link to their place of residence get benets irrespective
of their nationality. This cannot protect resident low-income workers entirely
from competition; but welfare states can contain competition between
migrants and low-income residents by setting minimum conditions and by
underpinning them with redistributive measures. Coordination in favor of
individual entitlements rather than systems harmonization strikes a balance
between at least three norms: social solidarity with EU citizens, the imperative
of safeguarding the viability of welfare states at each level of development,
and the obligation to adapt domestic institutions to support and facilitate
integration.
The US comparison on migration and nancial stability (Chapters 8 and 9)
should caution both against deterministic pessimism that a heterogeneous
union can never work and against the optimism of integration as complete
risk sharing. Even if the latter could be attained, more complete integration
could backre. The theory of collective action, in markets and policymaking,
suggests that more complete risk sharing encourages more risk taking. Some of
it will be moral hazard that shifts downside risks on others, some of it will be
perceived as moral hazard once the downside risk materializes even though
the risk takers acted in good faith. Rightly or wrongly, any realization of
downside risks can be perceived as willful free riding on other members,
undermining trust in risk-sharing arrangements. The more comprehensive
these arrangements are, the more likely this is to happen. More complete
risk sharing, prioritizing the internalization of externalities through closer
integration, can thus undermine solidarity.
10.2.2 Fiscal Risk Sharing through Reinsurance

The limits of scal risk sharing in the EA have been noted in Chapters 57.
Many commentators see that the only way forward for the EA is a scal
union.9 This can mean a number of things, as Fuest and Peichl (2012) note
in their useful survey: (1) scal surveillance; (2) a crisis-resolution mech-
anism; (3) a joint guarantee for government debt; (4) redistributive transfers
between unequal regions; and (5) a centralized budget at the EU level. The EA
8
See, for instance, Chalmers et al. (2016b: 15) where the authors criticize, in the same
paragraph, that the EU tries to replace national citizenship by giving migrants equal access to
entitlements but that its way of dealing with the inherent tension also makes migrants second-
class denizens exposed to racism and marginalization.
9
See Bargain et al. (2013: 37883) for a literature review; the authors argue against a full-edged
federal budget (see also Dolls et al. 2016). De Grauwe (2011, 2013) and all authors mentioned above
(Jones and Underhill 2014; Pisani-Ferry 2012; Obstfeld 2013) endorse at least a common debt
instrument (Eurobond).
316
framework that was in place by mid-2016 retained the original emphasis on

(1) scal surveillance and had (4) minimal transfers in the form of regional
funds. In the course of the crisis, (2) was added, in the guise of the ESM. We
have seen that this left the ECB in the role of substituting for (3) and (5) over
several years. Its bond-buying programs rst compensated for the limitations
of the ESM, and provided lending of last resort to governments through the
back door. Since early 2015, quantitative easing has continued this process
but also substitutes for a coordinated scal stimulus (5), in the face of
negative ination rates. These monetary innovations highlight that auto-
matic stabilizers at the member state level have been switched off with the
focus on scal consolidation.
The functional theory of scal federalism supports central nancing for
macroeconomic stabilization and redistribution. However, scal federalism
has ambiguous effects on stabilization, as was noted for the US in Chapters 4
and 8. States shift the cost of bank rescues, macroeconomic stabilization, and
social security to the federal level. This is ne as long as the political support for
federal risk sharing is there, but, even in a long-lasting political union like the
US, this should not be taken for granted. The functional logic leaves very little
for lower levels of government to do (Oates 2005: 352) and ignores their agency,
whereby they protect their budgetary commons at the cost of central govern-
ment and free ride on the stabilization effort of others. These considerations
about the political strains of centralization and the potential for dysfunctional
interaction between levels of government suggest that alternatives to the func-
tional theory should be considered. The following discussion considers ways in
which the federal or supranational level can act as reinsurer, complementing
rather than substituting for stabilization by member states.
FISCAL STABILIZATION
The risk-sharing literature, reviewed in Chapter 3, attracted attention with its
nding that compared to credit and capital markets the central budget in the
US stabilizes only a small fraction of an output shock (Figure 3.2). In the
original Asdrubali et al. (1996: 1092) study, the budget accounted for 13
percent of smoothing an idiosyncratic output shock to a US state, credit
markets for 23 percent, and capital markets for a whopping 39 percent. This
low contribution would be even lower if Asdrubali et al. (1996) had taken into
account that scal policies in the states tend to counteract the stabilization
effort at the federal level (Follette et al. 2008; Svec and Kondo 2012).
This free riding on the stabilization effort of the federal budget is a moral
hazard problem of collective stabilization in federations (Section 4.3.4). Rodden
and Wibbels (2010) show that this is a general pattern with a study of seven
federations. They found that regional or state governments tend to run pro-
cyclical expenditure policies, neutralizing some of the counter-cyclical effects of
317
the federal budget. Balanced budget rules are one driver of this pro-cyclicality:
lower-level governments tend to cut expenditure when tax revenue falls in an
economic downturn. Grants from central government also tend to be pro-
cyclical (Rodden and Wibbels 2010: 42), in other words grants are generous
when the economy does well and tax revenue is high, and vice versa in a
recession. The two effects together make stabilization in federations less respon-
sive than in a unitary state. While there may be high capacity to implement a
counter-cyclical policy at the federal level, this is undermined by the incentives
for pro-cyclicality at the lower levels.
This also applies to the stabilization of individuals incomes that welfare-
state programs try to achieve: cash benets in states tend to be extremely low
compared to Europe but also the federal poverty standard (Section 8.2.1).
Federal programs like SNAP and TANF take up the slack. Some states have
raised the minimum wage above the federal level, making employers share in
the cost of working poverty relief rather than the federal government with its
EITC. Unemployment insurance which is fully administered but only partly
nanced by the states is paid only to a fraction of the unemployed. This
contributes to the relatively low automatic stabilizers to be activated when
there is a shock to employment in the US (Section 4.3.4). The study by Dolls
et al. (2010: 312) found that states do not even contribute their small share of
4 percent to a 32 percent stabilization of income when unemployment hits a
region. By contrast, the member states in the EU stabilize incomes on average
by 48.5 percent when an unemployment shock hits the economy. It is
remarkable that without a central budget, scal policy is a more effective
stabilizer in the EA than in the US.
Completing the monetary union by a scal union is therefore unlikely to
increase the stabilizing capacity of the EA linearly with the centralization of
budgetary policy. The political incentives of lower levels of government have
to be taken into account. Any conceivable scal federation of the EA would
probably feature a close expenditure-tax link in a decentralized setting. This
would bode well for the goals of low budget decits and low ination but
badly for stabilization (Rodden and Wibbels 2002). Simulations of a scal
union come to similar discouraging results (Bargain et al. 2013). There are
stabilization gains to be had from replacing one third of national taxes and
transfers of EA member states by a central budget, but the redistributive effects
would be quite large. Moreover, a scal equalization scheme might not only be
too redistributive to be politically sustainable; it could also weaken the stabil-
izing capacity of the EA, because large-scale redistribution is liable to have
negative incentive effects on economic activity, lowering the tax capacity of
the system and hence its ability to implement counter-cyclical stabilization.
All these ndings commend stabilization schemes that complement
national measures, rather than a wholesale scal federation. A proposal for
318
such a Community stabilization mechanism was developed in the early

1990s, but rejected by the Council (Italianer and Vanheukelen 1993). The
central idea has recently been revived by Dullien (2014) in the form of a
supplementary unemployment scheme. Dolls et al. (2016) combine an
income-stabilization mechanism with the proposal for sovereign insolvency
that a team of IMF and Bruegel authors recently ventured, which is discussed
further below (Gianviti et al. 2010). Interestingly, they argue that an EU-wide
insurance scheme for short-term unemployment and insurance for sovereigns
in the case of overindebtedness would steer successfully between two political
market failures: moral hazard on the one hand and internalizing the external-
ities of market panic on the other (Section 7.2.1). An automatic stabilizer on
top of effective national unemployment schemes would allow a country to
get over a temporary shock. It would not be forced to switch off automatic
stabilizers with pro-cyclical measures, while the deterioration of budget
balances would be kept at bay.
This contribution of Dolls et al. (2016) is important because it supports the
case that there is an alternative to a sizeable central budget at the EU level to
smooth income uctuations of member states. Southern European countries
should be encouraged to increase the responsiveness of their tax systems and
unemployment benets, for instance through more progressive tax schedules
and better coverage of unemployment insurance. Adjustment programs under
the surveillance of the troika could help to bring this about and this rationale
for requested institutional reforms should be explicit, so as to make them
contestable and open to proposals that achieve the same goal of increased
stabilizing capacity. For instance, the rst bailout program for Greece con-
tained prescriptions for a more progressive income tax structure on grounds of
equity (European Economy Greece 2010: para. 24). This justication is prob-
lematic and seems opportunistic: pursuing redistributive goals through mem-
ber states tax systems is not an EU competence. However, it is a matter of
common concern that some member states raise the effectiveness of auto-
matic stabilizers; a more progressive income tax schedule can be a way to
achieve this.
The example also illustrates that such complementarity does not do away
with the need for political integration, as Mnchau (2016) points out. Creating
a supranational unemployment reinsurance scheme would call for a high level
of cooperation: this is political integration of a kind, regardless of the particular
institutions through which it is developed and implemented.
FISCAL BACKSTOPS
As important as more counter-cyclical scal capacity is in the EA, this was a
second-order problem in the aftermath of the nancial crisis. The rst-order
problems arose from unsustainable stocks of debt that turned into a
319
downward spiral of private and public insolvency. These rst-order problems

also emerged repeatedly in US history (Chapters 4 and 6). What put an end to
this history of nancial instability in the US were advances in central banking
and the introduction of federal scal backstops as part of the New Deal.10
The scal backstops rest on the availability of a national debt instrument,
US Treasury bonds, that in turn backs up federal scal capacity.
Fiscal backstops in the EA context would mean joint liability of member
states for their debts, supplementing their national liability. The idea of a
Eurobond is to have joint and several liability, while there is only several
(national) liability today. The joint liability would act as a reinsurance mech-
anism when the national liability is insufcient to honor the claims. This is
analogous to the reinsurance that private insurers take out to guard against the
tail risk of a catastrophic concentration of adverse events.
The foremost commitment problem of sovereigns is that the present value
of net taxes may be too small to guarantee the liabilities of a collapsing
nancial system, destroying the security of saving households and disrupting
the payments system. Iceland and Ireland were the most glaring examples of
this in the nancial crisis of 2008. But Luxembourg, Switzerland, and the UK
could also have this problem (Buiter 2008: 27881). Other sovereigns have the
commitment problem that the legacy of public debt is so burdensome that a
small change in parameters, for instance a rise in interest rates or stagnating
growth, raises doubts about the countrys solvency. If holders of bondsor
the credit agencies rating themdo not believe bonds will be paid back as
promised and move out, their skeptical beliefs become self-fullling. This is a
commitment problem for any new administration in Belgium or Italy due
to their high public debt, even if an incoming government has the best
intentions of stabilizing public nances. The problem is heightened in the
EA because governments have no longer a central bank that could provide
liquidity directly (De Grauwe 2011: 25).
A common debt instrument is a risk-pooling device, exploiting the fact that
not all member states will experience a shock or a bond-market attack at the
same time. In fact, if some member states have a safe-haven status and others
have a traditionally precarious status in nancial markets, then their risks
are negatively correlated and pooling can bring down the aggregate risk of
the pool.
Ideas for a Eurobond, analogous to federal debt in the US, have been oated
for a while.11 It is arguable that the ESM is one limited version, insofar as it
10
The S&L crisis of the 1980s was due to the unwinding of the early post-war regime of nancial
repression; it ended only when federal scal backstops were applied in the guise of the FDIC
(Section 4.2.5).
11
See Schelkle (2012c: 312) for a comparison of main proposals.
320
allows the Commission to borrow up to 60 billion in capital markets and

lend it on to countries. The ESM is securitized by the EU budget which ropes
non-euro countries into the risk pool and hence cannot be easily increased. De
Grauwe and Moesen (2009) propose that EA members should have guaranteed
access to a common nancing instrument but at national interest rates. The
red and blue bond proposal by Delpa and von Weizscker (2010), as well as
that of the German Council of Economic Advisors (Sachverstndigenrat
2012), would primarily try to use Eurobonds in order to reduce the legacy of
debt, in other words it pools the risk of insolvency rather than that of liquidity.
Finally, so-called ESBies, European Safe Bonds, have been proposed.
They would use structured nancing techniques to create a private-sector
equivalent to a Eurobond (Brunnermeier et al. 2011). This demonstrates that
Eurobonds do not have to come about as part of quasi-federal public-debt
management.
Joint liability instruments can also be more targeted, acting as specic
circuit breakers of a negative feedback loop. Such a specic backstop is exactly
what the FDIC in the US provides for state banks, nanced out of fees from its
member banks and invested in US Treasury bonds. An alternative to a targeted
Eurobond for bank resolution is to give the ESM a banking license that would
give it access to the ECB in well-dened circumstances such as a systemic
banking crisis in a member state. In other words, the question before heads of
state will be whether extreme emergencies require joint scal liabilities or the
scalization of central banking; and it might be wise to have both instruments
available instead of relying on only one.
Each extension of public safety nets raises the issue of moral hazard, not
only among the unequal members of the risk pool but also elsewhere in the
nancial system. Commercial incentives inherently lead to bets on the avail-
ability of insurance. This has led some experts to advocate an insolvency
procedure for sovereigns that would force the private sector to bear some
losses and thereby reduce the moral hazard that arises from provision for
joint bailouts. Gianviti et al. (2010) propose a viable insolvency procedure
for sovereigns that would give a country up to three years under an ESM
program to get back on a sustainable trajectory or write down debt, as an
ultimate threat to careless private lenders to governments. Debt restructuring
is needed to make it credible that a bailout will not be forthcoming, as
disorderly default would lead to a banking crisis. The proposal faces the
political difculty that losses will be inicted on lending countries banking
systems when another EA member state defaults. Reining in moral hazard
comes at the cost of externalities.
Another way to address negative feedback loops is to prevent real or
perceived collusion between national policymakers and national bankers
by changing the rules for risk weighting of bond holdings on banks balance
321
sheets (Dolls et al. 2016: 89, 22). Holding sovereign bonds of the country in
which a bank has its headquarters or is registered as a subsidiary should have a
higher positive risk weight than for that of other member states, meaning a
bank has to set aside more loss-absorbing capital. This would give banks
incentives to diversify their bond holdings and make them less susceptible
to pressures from ofcials to invest in domestic bonds. This reduction of the
home bias through diversication would greatly reduce the basis for a negative
feedback loop. A requirement to diversify is likely to increase the cost of the
government debt of weaker states at rst and thus needs to be phased in,
but since it will reduce the risk of feedback loops, this should only be a
transitory phase.
These policy implications for scal risk sharing address the fact that the
European monetary union consists of political economies that are diverse in
economic and political terms. Targeted reinsurance is more pertinent for
such a union than generalized joint liability. Regulatory ways of making
private nance diversify rather than concentrate sovereign risks would help
its members with a problem that they nd hard to avoid on their own. All this
is to say that policies must help member states to sustain but also to benet
from their diversity.
10.3 European Political Economy
The European economic and monetary union is politically integrated, albeit

differently from nation states (Section 5.3). The amount of harmonized legis-
lation, scal surveillance, and policy coordination that member state admin-
istrations engage in surpasses some federations. But it is a union of
democracies and not a democratic union. This is of course the constitutional
reason why risk sharing in a scal federation is taboo. But just as there can be
other ways to do scal risk sharing, so there can be other ways to achieve
political integration, in the sense of developing capacity to resolve collective
action problems. The legitimacy of monetary solidarity does not rest on
majoritarian decision-making processes, yet it has to work through the
cooperation of governments that can only function within the constraints
of those processes.
One feature of the processes that do prevail is that expert policy advice has
an inuential political role; this is the counterpart of the inherently weak
democratic underpinning of the EA/EU. This imposes a duty of reexivity
upon academic researchers and experts: if an idea is enthusiastically taken
up by policymakers, the researcher should pause to reect on what selective
incentives have been triggered to make the authorities so receptive. Reection
on the current embrace of the concept of risk sharing by the European
322
Commission suggests that the risks posed by nancial integration are deliber-
ately downplayed. Those drawing on OCA theory to advocate an ever closer
union should also reect on the likelihood that member states will impose
limits on risk sharing that undermine the putative benets of integration.
10.3.1 Political Legitimation of Monetary Solidarity

Monetary solidarity between democracies is a peculiar form of political inte-
gration. Some of the most obvious expressions of monetary solidarity ana-
lyzed in previous chapters can illustrate this: the large membership with
which the European monetary union started, pooling former hard-currency
and soft-currency areas; the formerly egalitarian set-up of the ECB, giving each
governor a vote that is disproportionate to national size;12 the equal treatment
of all member state bonds in collateralized lending by the central bank;
extraordinary monetary policies during the crisis that provided lending of
last resort to national banking systems and indirectly to sovereigns; the main-
tenance of a cross-border payments system when banks did not want to
acquire any claims against each other while they and their clients depended
on the processing of payments; the unprecedented size of the stabilization
programs under the watch of the Commission, the IMF, and the ECB, guar-
anteed by member states that were themselves in dire straits. Only the rst
(euro membership) and the last (troika programs) qualify as political phenom-
ena that easily capture the public imagination. But a weak potential for
politicization does not make these developments apolitical. Moreover, the
heated argument in Germany about the risks involved in TARGET imbalances
illustrated how quickly this can change (Section 9.1).
These instances of monetary solidarity have in common that they did not
rest on majoritarian decision making. To be sure, decisions were taken by
elected representatives of government. But they usually concerned institu-
tions, for instance in determining the rules on how an applicant country can
qualify for EA membership, and the decisions of parliaments or referenda
deciding on EA membership were secondary to this qualication.13 A similar
logic applied to the ECB. Elected governments decided on the nature of its
independence which then allowed the ECB to adopt policies it saw as being in
line with fullling its legislated mandate. Once the institution was set in place
by majoritarian procedures, it was to a considerable degree isolated against
12
The rotation system in place since the accession of Lithuania in January 2015 means that ECB
governors have periodically no voting right. Governors from smaller member states must abstain
more often than those from larger member states.
13
Troika programs are an exception in that each has to be signed off by the German Bundestag,
an obligation that the German Constitutional Court stipulated as a democratic requirement.
323
shifting majorities in member states. The same holds for TARGET or the
Commissions role in scal surveillance and stabilization programs for dis-
tressed member states.
This isolation is deliberate. For reasons of commitment when the veil of
ignorance has been lifted, an insurance arrangement must be immune to
opportunism by the fortunate. An ECB must be free to support the less
fortunate in order to preserve the integrity of nancial markets in the monet-
ary union as a whole, even if it is thus redistributing from the fortunate to the
unfortunate. This upholding of insurance arrangements has parallels in the
insurance arrangement that is the welfare state. The norm of equality often
promotes an extension of social policy programs to beneciaries that were not
the target group when the program was legislated. Democratic control is
exercised over the broad principles of entitlement in a welfare-state program,
not over who exactly benets. Obviously, if a majority of voters no longer
endorses the principles used to target a program, then it is up to their political
representatives to propose changes.
Anybody who deplores a democratic decit of the EA (and by extension the
EU) has to come to terms with the fact that it was parliaments, and in some
cases electorates directly, that voted with sizeable majorities to become part of
a system that was transparent about this democratic decit. Even if electorates
had not fully understood the mandate of the ECB, no Irish, Italian, or German
voter could be under any illusion that the common central bank would make
monetary policy for Ireland, Italy, or Germany alone. Furthermore, it could
not be expected that the ECB would respond to the domestic concerns of
shifting national majorities; membership entails that policies will be con-
ducted with regard to others. This is the essence of EU/EA membership,
reecting the inherent tension in being governing together but not as one
(Nicolades 2013: 4).
Monetary solidarity is also not merely compliance with international trea-
ties, such as the Refugee Convention or World Trade Organization trade
agreements. Rather than committing to certain national policies, it rests on
delegating monetary (and since 2014 nancial supervisory) policy authority
to supranational bodies. Majone (2001) argued that the delegation of policy
powers to the ECB is more pertinently described as a duciary relationship
than as a principalagent relationship. The description of the ECB as a trustee
rather than an agent is pertinent if the delegating governments do not neces-
sarily want the central bank to have the same preferences as they have and if
the policy area is beset with considerable uncertainty so that the contract
cannot be fully specied ex ante. Such trustees are an answer to the commit-
ment dilemma that is inherent in democracy: elected governments rule only
for a limited time while international agreements are meant to last (Majone
2001: 1067).
324
The conundrum for legitimacy is precisely formulated by Richard Bellamy

and Albert Weale (2015: 264): how is it legally and constitutionally possible
for a member state to enter into and honour international agreements that
are in its interests and in the interests of other states who are party to the
agreement, whilst at the same time retaining the principle of the democratic
self-determination of [its] people? The contracting governments wanted the
ECB to have preferences that would depart from those of predecessor central
banks (of others and their own) that created exchange rate instability and/or
forced them to raise interest rates at inconvenient times (Section 5.1). The
Bundesbank was the bte noir for governments of soft-currency areas; the
Banca dItalia or the Banque de France played similar roles for authorities of
hard-currency areas. By applying for the European monetary union, they
accepted that the future central bank would conduct monetary policy not
with a view to any one of them, although it was of course expected to be more
stability-oriented. This was not a worry as long as the ECB managed to give
both sides what they wanted: both lower interest rates and stable low
ination.
The idea was that these politically desired policy outputs legitimized the
ECB, in line with the useful distinction between input and output legitimacy
developed by Scharpf (1999). It was rarely noted at the timesince the Treaty
mentions price stability onlythat the delegation of policy authority suited at
least two goals: ination, which the ECB was meant to control, and low-risk
premia, which the ECB would thus achieve. With hindsight, it seems obvious
that serving different economic aspirations is enormously important for the
diverse political community that underpins monetary union. Otherwise, the
commitment of the various states is not credible (Bellamy and Weale 2015:
263): if the collective agreement at the EA level runs counter to democratic
majorities or important constituencies in the member states, administrations
cannot rationally trust each other to honor the agreement.
This follows from the normative logic of two-level games (Bellamy and
Weale 2015: 259) which is an important variation on the positive logic of two-
level games. The domestic level is a constraint on the supranational level in
the sense that the latter cannot legitimately ask for compliance and consider-
ation of other member states concerns if the international agreement subjects
national democracies to outdated or narrowly based commitments. Fiscal
surveillance suffered from a violation of this normative logic and the inter-
national agreement was repeatedly disregarded, including a social democratic
administration in Germany. The problem is that those in support of strict
scal surveillance take this as an indicator that the defying states cannot or
will not honor any commitments.
For the normative logic to be respected and followed, each member state
must acknowledge that other governments act as representatives of their state,
325
and they should expect reciprocal acknowledgment. This is the principle of

demoicracy rather than a European democracy (Cheneval and Schimmelfennig
2013: 334; Nicolades 2013: 12). There must be domestic ways in which the
political authority at the international level can be openly and consequentially
disputed (White, J. 2015: 88), for it to back off, change tack, or base its
decisions on a more inclusive rationale.14 Financial stability has become the
case in point since 2010. There are proposals, like those of Dolls et al. (2016)
discussed above, that show ways in which the EA institutions could respond to
this evolution without losing its constitutional identity as a union of democra-
cies that formed a hard-currency area.
At the moment, the democratic concerns are taken up by constitutional
courts, prominently in Germany but also quite effectively in Portugal
(Bellamy and Weale 2015: 258). The Portuguese court declared certain agree-
ments in memoranda of understanding unconstitutional (Ltz et al. 2015),
the German court ruled that only a pre-committed amount for bond buying
under the OMT program is compatible with the democratic prerogative
over scal resources. Bellamy and Weale (2015: 264) see the doctrine of
delegation that the German court developed as a possible solution to the
conundrum of legitimacy: So long as the international agreement could
be said to rest on the delegated authority of the member state and the
Bundestag retained the power of revoking Germanys participation in the
international agreement, then the principle of democratic self-determination
was respected.
However, the nal OMT judgment of the German court, not known to
Bellamy and Weale (2015), also indicates the limits of this judicial way out
(Section 7.2.2). The court did not simply obligate the national parliament to
review a major innovation in monetary policy. It also sought a specic reason
why this is necessary for the OMT, which it found in the potential liabilities
of German taxpayers. Like all courts, it tried to maintain continuity by con-
structing an analogy with cases which have gone before, and the analogy
it found was scal. This analogy is contested among economists but reected
the Bundesbanks view (Steen 2012).15 The problem with national judicial
governance of the two-level game is that, by its very nature, it cannot provide
a way out of the practical contradiction at the heart of EMU (Bellamy and
Weale 2015: 265): that governments were asked at the time to agree to scal
14
The infamous incident in which the German nance minister promised his Portuguese
counterpart that adjustments can be made once the Greek program will have been agreed is one
example for adjustments to domestic opposition in an otherwise cooperative member state
(Chapter 6, fn 24).
15
On the grounds of open-ended commitment, full allotment repos, another extraordinary
monetary policy measure, should have been subject to approval by national parliaments as well
because collateral under this open-ended lending program can also default.
326
rules and a narrow mandate of the central bank as if these would cover all
future contingencies in member states and the union, with no further demo-
cratic legitimation required. National courts are ill-equipped to deal with the
predictable unpredictability of monetary union (Bellamy and Weale 2015:
265) and have an institutionally rational conservative bias. Only elected,
representative governments can deal with the open-ended nature of a diverse
monetary union. This maxim is, by mid-2016, respected in the breach rather
than in the observance of scal rules, while a lonely central bank struggles to
provide policy innovations to develop its mandate.
10.3.2 Reexive Policy Advice

This brings us nally to the role of those researching the experiment that is the
EU generally and the euro especially. Research in European political economy
acts to some extent as a substitute for limited political contestation over
policies at the EU level. A striking example was the article The advantage of
tying ones hands: EMS discipline and central bank credibility by Francesco
Giavazzi and Marco Pagano (1988) that clearly supported the limited risk
sharing enshrined in EA institutions.16 The article provided a justication
for the irrevocable xing of the exchange rate on the grounds that it was a
rational strategy to discipline wage bargainers and escape cycles of ination
and devaluation.
This was research at its most inuential, particularly in Italy where policy-
makers had not found other solutions to the ination-devaluation cycle. It
could be read as turning the theory of OCA on its head. A non-optimal
candidate, with too high ination, can be made optimal through monetary
integration, by taking away the instrument that allowed it to accommodate its
excessive ination. All that was required was to apply the then fashionable
methodological assumption of rational expectations to the mainstream view
of monetary integration.
Such research falls on fertile ground in a democratic union that is forever
in search of new policy ideas, but lacks contestation between government and
opposition spurred on by the prospect of an election. Hence, the competition
for policy ideasand support for policies from outside EU institutionsmust
partly substitute for the political contestation associated with democratic
processes. If targeted in this way, research in European political economy
becomes a form of politics in the sense of Jon Elster (1986: 128):
16
In 2005, Francesco Giavazzi was asked to look back at this article in light of what we knew
then about the EA. My contribution (Schelkle 2006) was prompted by the fact that in a series of
such exercises, he was the only contributor who did not honor his commitment to write up his
seminar presentation.
327
It is the concern with substantive decisions [ultimately on economic matters] that

lends the urgency to political debates. The ever-present constraint of time creates a
need for focus and concentration that cannot be assimilated to the leisurely style
of philosophical argument in which it may be better to travel hopefully than to
arrive. Yet within these constraints arguments form the core of the political
process. If thus dened as public in nature, and instrumental in purpose, politics
assumes what I believe to be its proper place in society.
Participating in debates about policies is in this place a valid and important

political activity of scholars.
Yet, it is the realm of politics and not of applied research. After all, advising
European institutions leads, if successful, to the paradoxical situation that
research comes to chase a moving target of which it is itself a driving force.
This is rarely compatible with unbiased research; rather, it is a sign of success-
ful political engagement. The contribution of many scholars to the TARGET
debate can be seen as a striking example of such a successful engagement, and
it had academic as well as political payoffs (Section 9.1). What made this
debate constructive was exactly the seriousness with which (most) partici-
pants tried to understand what was going on rather than nding forever
fault with the imperfect world around them and giving in to the urge to
recommend reforms to the TARGET system.
This political use of research gives the EA a constructivist touch. Wide-
ranging policy changes are driven through with the backing of theories and
models that may have their empirical evidence from rather different contexts
and may have been based on assumptions that seem problematic with the
benet of hindsight. Economic research lends itself more easily to such instru-
mental use than political science or sociological research on Europe. This
would not necessarily be a problem if the latter were still part of the debate
on economists policy ideas. But too often they are not. The great scholar of
central banking, Charles Goodhart (1989: 482), noted with respect to the
debate on economic governance in the EU early on a lack of interdisciplinary
inputs and the narrow professionalism of economists dominating the
debate. Such scholarship becomes part of a technocratic infrastructure, nar-
rowing down the perspective on European integration rather than widening
and enriching it for the benet of a diverse union. Fortunately, this is no
longer the case and political scientists as well as political economists have
left their marks on the interpretation of the EA crisis.17 Their advice is now
sometimes invited by the ECB, the IMF, and the Director General for Economic
and Financial Affairs, although it is marginal compared to economists.
17
To name just a few edited volumes: Genschel and Jachtenfuchs (2014); Cramme and Hobolt
(2015); Matthijs and Blyth (2015); Caporaso and Rhodes (2016); and Chalmers et al. (2016a); These
have been compounded by an impressive number of special issues of political economy journals.
328
The by-product theory of collective action also applies to this political use of
research: policy ideas are taken up by the Commission or uploaded by member
states when they have selective incentives to draw on it. This insight suggests a
reexive attitude to policy advice: whenever a policy idea falls on fertile
ground, one might ask whose selective incentives made the policy authorities
so receptive. This may be grounds for reconsidering whether the advice is
robust to furthering an agenda different from what the research had in mind.
The concept of risk sharing is a case in point. As indicated earlier, it already
gures prominently in the high-level report on how to complete EMU
(Juncker et al. 2015), drawing heavily on the literature reviewed in
Chapter 3. This review indicated that the literature saw nancial markets as
reliable channels for allocating risk efciently and located the only source of
instability in exogenous output shocks. These assumptions are indefensible in
2015, in the aftermath of the nancial crisis. But the Juncker et al. report
follows this literature closely because it suits the agenda of building a banking
and capital markets union quickly and allows a neat distinction to be drawn
between private and public risk sharing (Kalemli-Ozcan et al. 2013). Member
states that do not wish to discuss specic interfaces of scal risk sharing can
live with this use of the research, since the sequencing postpones the debate
about public (read: scal) risk sharing for a while.18 This closing off of a debate
supports, however, a policy of moving rst towards a capital market union
without the necessary safety nets in place. If, for instance, a large cross-border
insurer fails in a stock-market crash and policy holders in different countries
lose their old-age security, the same issues arise as in the default of a cross-
border bank. The low-interest environment poses risks to nancial conglom-
erates like Deutsche Bank and Allianz that are largely unknown in their
ramications (IMF 2016b: 2932).
It is a serious allegation but sometimes one cannot help but see in this a
political strategy that instrumentalizes Monnets dictum about crisis as a force
for European integration: that the next crisis will force the hands of govern-
ments and lead to another quantum leap in European monetary integration.
The historical evidence in Chapters 4 and 6 indicated, however, that crisis
politics is ruled by the selective incentives of short-termist sauve qui peut, a
rush to the exit that blocks the exit for everybody. Understandably, the
overriding impulse is to evade the uncertain fall-out from catastrophe by
shifting the costs onto others even if they are conceivably too weak to bear
them. Monnets statement is a prediction to fear, not a recipe to follow.
18
In fact, between the Four Presidents report in 2012 and the Five Presidents report in 2015,
the shock-absorption function for a monetary union highlighted in the former report (van
Rompuy et al. 2012: 12) was edited out because of objections from the usual Northern contingent.
329
Experts who insist, with the best intentions, that ever closer union is needed
may undermine the monetary union by imposing on it political demands that
it cannot meet. This leads to political integration by latent conict rather than
by open contestation for a compromise among representative governments.
Lingering conicts create lasting alienation between member states: it will
take years to forget the bad blood that troika programs created on all sides.
Institutional complexity is invariably the result post-crisis when EU bodies
scramble to nd ways around ill-conceived ad hoc constructs, such as the
Fiscal Compact or the rst emergency fund. Ever closer union, even if it were
desirable, is not necessarily viable.
The approach adopted in this book shifts attention from institutional
design to institutional evolution. International collective goods are rarely
the outcome of primary intentions (Broz 1998), they evolve in context-
specic practices of governing the commons (Ostrom 1990). The inherently
constructivist tendency of EU institution building needs to be complemented
by a hermeneutic contribution to policy debates. By this I mean furthering our
understanding of how policy ideas enshrined in existing institutions change
with the interests in using these institutions. Independent central banking
means something very different in 2010 from what it meant in 2000; I have
argued that it has dispersed more risks effectively than previously envisaged.
The insistence on scal sovereignty has also changed its impetus; it has been
revealed as the last Maginot line (Obstfeld 2013) that upholds nancial panic
as an arbitrary disciplining threat while it was hoped to be a freedom gained
when a single currency reins in foreign exchange markets. The hermeneutic
thrust of research is an antidote to both the emphasis on recommending new
policy ideas for ever more integration and the critique that the design of the
union is incomplete. Completion implies uniform principles and one func-
tional logic. Such stringency can be intellectually stimulating for scholars
although even academic debates usually benet from a diversity of views,
approaches, and empirical strategies. When research enters the realm of political
engagement, however, it is worth reminding ourselves that a union of democ-
racies using a single currency might thrive on diversity for political as well as
economic reasons.
330
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366
Index
Note: Page numbers in italics denote gures and tables.
amplication 185, 294 hegemony 31, 33, 34, 37, 135, 137, 1445,
asymmetric shocks, see shocks 153, 304, 310
austerity 84, 172, 187, 191, 193, 196, 214, 266 hierarchy 8, 11, 19, 31, 33, 49, 119, 145
automatic stabilizers 78, 80, 84, 115, 1234, privileged-group theory 10, 3940, 56
137, 186, 205, 31719 problems 5, 911, 22, 313, 3940, 43,
56, 76, 81, 109, 113, 11619, 135, 145,
bail-in 56, 166, 207, 213, 220 1546, 174, 187, 18990, 195, 20910,
banksovereign feedback loop, see feedback 268, 298, 322
loops see also political market failures
bond yields 578, 101, 130, 160, 171, 213, 216 commitment 8, 335, 468, 47, 524, 117,
Bretton Woods exchange rate system 12, 20, 129, 13940, 174, 189, 199, 234, 268, 284,
31, 38, 120, 194, 306; see also IMF 300, 310, 313, 320, 3245
Broz, Lawrence 8, 10, 23, 39, 934, 99, 1045, see also political market failures
120, 298, 330 commons:
Bundesbank: common goods 312, 40, 423
and coronation theory 1547 common pool resource 23, 32, 42, 44, 45,
and ERM crisis 1269 314, 317
and negotiations for monetary union 136, governing the commons 10, 19, 24, 312,
138, 1405 425, 135, 1423, 1547, 196, 21213, 222,
and role in ERM 11, 1516, 26, 356, 299, 3045, 314, 330
4950, 634 tragedy of the commons 10, 23, 424, 48, 49,
and OMT 21516, 310, 3256 56, 189
and TARGET 26772, 281, 284, 28990, see also public good
2923, 295, 299300 competitiveness 13, 37, 126, 127, 138, 160,
business cycle 6, 15, 38, 63, 64, 70, 747, 79, 163, 180, 1824, 223, 261, 2734, 279, 307
84, 119, 161, 309 see also current-account imbalances
by-product theory, see collective action completion of monetary union 8, 212, 44, 66,
76, 1223, 159, 197, 223, 304, 31218,
capital controls 127, 129, 175, 222, 284, 301 32930
capital market union 76, 223, 329 see also Five Presidents report; United States,
central banking: Hamilton Plan
scal backstop 17, 25, 80, 82, 86, 93, 112, conditionality 9, 51, 54, 159, 166, 167, 1712,
115, 137, 150, 200, 214, 222, 31921 195, 213, 294, 311
independence 50, 802, 106, 113, 120, 136, coronation theory 91, 934, 1545
1378, 140, 1437, 218, 225, 323, 330 cross-border payments system:
lender of last resort 14, 18, 79, 82, 85, 95, 99, and monetary solidarity 2, 41, 58, 58, 2668,
1056, 116, 121, 137, 171, 187, 193, 277, 299, 323
199200, 207, 215, 224, 312 see also TARGET
see also ECB; Federal Reserve System current-account imbalances 1314, 256, 63,
cohesion policy 45, 47, 59, 60, 74 73, 87, 120, 127, 138, 1801, 184, 188, 208,
collective action 266, 269, 271, 273, 277, 279, 286, 288
by-product theory 10, 1819, 22, 32, 3742, and EA crisis 160, 162, 163, 164, 166, 184, 307
85, 121, 145, 299, 329 see also Competitiveness
diversity 1, 45, 11, 223, 26, 113, 129, 131, Cyprus 1646, 169, 170, 172, 176, 183, 190,
185, 303, 311, 330 191, 192, 194, 198
Index
Delors Commission 135, 1389 feedback loops 13, 24, 26, 44, 48, 7983, 92,
Delors report 3, 4, 39, 132 95, 1002, 11112, 11415, 122, 150, 178,
democracy 3, 12, 32, 103, 157, 173, 215, 217, 1934, 199, 21819, 225, 3045, 308, 310,
305, 3227 3212
democratic decit of the EU 35, 156, 305, 3226 see also United States
demoicracy 155, 326 Fiscal Compact 41, 42, 49, 156, 20610, 330
diabolic loop, see feedback loops scal rules 18, 25, 36, 423, 49, 51, 80, 137,
dilemma of government responsiveness 115, 1378
153, 174, 190 see also Stability and Growth Pact
distributive effects 16, 32, 41, 46, 56, 70, 256, Five Presidents report 23, 66, 82, 159, 2235, 329
267, 318 France 55, 1269, 133, 141, 183, 189, 208,
regressive redistribution 19, 48, 70, 83, 230, 256, 260
261, 264, 290 Franco-German cooperation 35, 136, 208,
Draghi, Mario 25, 214, 216, 2245, 275, 297 21112
exposure of French banks 131, 186, 293, 308
ECB Sarkozy, Nicolas 212
bond buying 24, 41, 51, 79, 148, 173, and TARGET 269
21011, 21415, 291, 293, 317 see also ERM crisis
collateral policy 24, 137, 14550, 153, 160,
167, 171, 187, 280, 289 Germany 1312, 142, 144, 153, 182, 184, 205,
monetary nancing 116, 214, 216, 31213 212, 2412, 246, 262
Outright Monetary Transactions, see OMT and ERM 634, 1268
see also central banking; TARGET; troika hegemony 34, 37, 135, 144, 145, 153,
emerging markets 75, 205, 309 172, 310
EMU, see Single Market Merkel, Angela 211, 212, 214, 215, 310
ERM crisis (19923) 1259, 186 ordoliberalism 135, 142, 1445, 153, 154
France 1279 Schuble, Wolfgang 154, 220, 221
Germany 1269 and TARGET 2678, 2723, 275, 282,
self-fullling 127, 301 28992, 2978, 300
European Central Bank, see ECB see also Bundesbank; France, FrancoGerman
exchange rate: cooperation; OMT
current-account imbalances 1314, 127, Greece 47, 55, 74, 130, 133, 135, 160, 1656,
160, 175, 181, 269, 285, 307 168, 170, 1723, 175, 183, 18792, 194,
economic theory of 12, 1921, 175, 177 2034, 319
over- and undervaluation 13, 15, 160, 164 and TARGET 2878, 293
speculative attack 13, 194, 269, 301 and troika 166, 173, 197, 213, 319
stabilization 4, 9, 12, 245, 39, 153, 162, see also ECB; moral hazard
177, 179, 325 growth:
systems 2, 11, 20, 104, 121, 127, 1356, 266, catch-up growth 24, 40, 86, 113, 160, 184,
285, 301, 306 199, 3078
volatility 2, 1213, 15, 20, 26, 389, 110, debt and stagnation 162, 180, 294,
127, 192, 306 3078, 320
see also Bretton Woods exchange rate system; growth regimes and crisis 3, 158, 163,
ERM crisis 17985, 193, 308
externalities 11, 32, 4750, 57, 107, 115, 139,
143, 154, 157, 174, 199, 200, 209, 219, 234, Hall, Peter 12, 24, 38, 132, 17980, 1825, 197,
257, 284, 294, 301, 304, 313, 316, 319, 321 232, 306
see also political market failures; feedback loops Hamilton, Alexander 938, 101, 112, 121, 122
hegemony, see collective action
federalism 3, 8, 923, 155 see also Germany; neoliberalism
scal federalism 4, 26, 65, 689, 78, 105, 113,
122, 152, 177, 2634, 31718 illiquidity, see liquidity risks
see also United States IMF:
Federal Reserve System 1057, 116, 118, 120, and conditionality 168, 171, 213
121, 136, 144, 152, 219, 220, 268, 276, and euro area crisis 16771, 169, 191, 1923
282, 284, 298 see also troika; Bretton Woods exchange rate
see also United States system; conditionality
368
Index
impossible trinity 31214 non-state 4, 122, 155

inequality of member states 14, 1314, 19, 45, state 83
224, 309, 316, 321 Monnets curse 42, 122, 197, 309
insider-outsider labor markets, see labor market moral hazard 10, 32, 48, 501, 54, 107, 13843,
dualism 150, 152, 154, 199, 209, 219, 301, 304,
insolvency, see solvency risks 31617, 319, 321
interest rate and crisis response 166, 174, 197, 199,
convergence 1334, 139, 147, 307 209, 310
long-term 120, 131, 132, 133, 134, 139, 306 and incompleteness 195, 197, 31314
risk premia 40, 48, 132, 138, 139, 148, 162, separation of monetary and scal policy 82,
188, 194, 214, 218, 307, 325 1389
see also Walters effect and TARGET 268300
Ireland 47, 1616, 170, 1723, 175, 182, 187, see also political market failures
189, 191, 203, 205, 213, 308, 320 Moss, David 8, 11, 13, 16, 47, 54, 56, 612, 93,
and TARGET 273, 285, 2889, 291 99, 1012, 11617, 119, 123
Italy 40, 78, 1278, 130, 133, 135, 139, 140, multiplier 80, 84, 118
167, 172, 182, 212, 219, 246, 260, 308, 327 Mundell, Robert 1920, 25, 175, 177, 179,
bond market attack 18990, 195, 214, 231, 312
218, 291 see also Optimal Currency Area, theory of
Berlusconi, Silvio 214, 224
Monti, Mario 190, 214 neoliberalism 24, 132, 135, 154, 158
and TARGET 269, 273, 285, 287 see also Germany, ordoliberalism
no-bailout clause 18, 51, 140, 141, 189, 207
joint decision trap 45 see also United States
non-state money, see money
Keohane, Robert 5, 9, 11, 23, 31, 325, 467
Olson, Mancur 10, 32, 3940, 56
labor market dualism 2334, 2414, 251, 262 OMT 207, 21417, 224, 310, 313, 326
labor mobility 712, 177, 179, 22932, 234, Optimal Currency Area (OCA), theory of
235, 238, 247, 250, 2525, 260, 261 1923, 712, 83, 200, 223, 22935,
law of large numbers 62, 64, 65, 97 323, 327
lender of last resort 14, 82, 85 and euro area crisis 158, 1749, 183, 185
ECB 1718, 79, 137, 171, 185, 187, 1923, Ostrom, Elinor 5, 10, 19, 223, 31, 424, 56,
199200, 207, 215, 224, 312 142, 155, 314, 330
Fed 95, 99, 101, 105, 106, 111, 115, 116, see also commons
121, 152 Outright Monetary Transactions, see OMT
see also central banking
leverage theory 914, 1545 paradox of diversity 12, 61, 65, 91, 224, 262,
liquidity risks 7, 14, 3940, 82, 84, 115, 118, 304, 309, 310
137, 146, 149, 207, 321 perception problems 47, 48, 545, 60, 157,
ring fencing liquidity 117, 219, 301 193, 300
see also political market failures
Maastricht: political economy:
convergence process 51, 133, 135, 136, 140, comparative capitalism literature 21, 24, 38,
201, 205 158, 17985, 23233, 306, 308
Treaty 36, 38, 47, 126, 127, 129, 131, 137, rationality assumptions 12, 337, 46, 54, 55
199, 236 see also collective action; commons, paradox
macroprudential policies 164, 184, 207, 2212, of diversity; political market failures
307, 31415 political integration:
see also capital controls scal union 20, 76, 92, 94, 108, 305,
market discipline 120, 139, 147, 148, 274, 310 31213, 318
Marshall, T. H. 230, 234 governing the commons, see commons
misperception, see perception problems see also completion of monetary union;
monetary integration, economic theory of, see coronation theory; leverage theory; United
optimal currency area (OCA), theory of States
money: political market failures 11, 22, 31, 468, 56, 59,
at 4, 80, 83, 92, 95, 115, 119, 137, 207, 266 267, 284, 298300, 304, 31013, 319
369
Index
Portugal 40, 47, 55, 133, 143, 1623, 166, Spain 40, 47, 78, 127, 133, 1634, 167, 16975,
16870, 172, 174, 178, 187, 192, 2034, 177, 189, 191, 193, 203, 252
213, 326 and TARGET 269, 285, 2879
and TARGET 2878 spillovers, see externalities
posted workers 2479, 251 Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) 138, 1403,
private sector involvement 58, 163, 191, 192, 1467, 153, 162
197, 209 see also scal rules; scal surveillance
see also solvency risks Storbeck, Olaf 274
public choice 37, 42 sudden stops 267, 2859
public goods 10, 22, 334, 39, 42, 48, 93, 105, and cross-border payments systems 2, 25, 41
112, 284 and TARGET 41, 267, 2859, 298, 307
rational cooperation, see political economy, TARGET 41, 266302, 308, 311, 323, 324
rationality assumptions comparison with ISA 26, 2668, 276, 277,
see also two-level games 278, 2804, 286, 2979, 308
redistribution, see distributive effects currency attacks 269, 301
risk aversion 54, 623, 65, 70, 131, 201 tragedy of the commons, see commons
regulatory polity 135, 151, 156 transfer union 16, 152, 316
Trichet, Jean-Claude 167, 210, 224
Schieritz, Mark 274, 275 troika 166, 171, 195, 197, 319, 323, 330
seignorage 83, 98, 137, 14950, 153, 207, 283 two-level game 55, 217, 3256
shocks: normative logic 3256
absorption of, see channels of risk sharing
asymmetric 38, 72, 75, 106, 121, 126, 155, United States:
178, 185, 223, 253 banking union 103, 107, 112
common 24, 65, 77, 78, 86, 159, 185, 186, cleavage 8, 92, 94, 112
189, 221, 252, 314 devolutionists and federalists 92, 93, 96,
consumption 66, 67, 73 99, 105
demand 58, 66, 69, 70, 73, 78 feedback loops 91, 95, 1002, 11112,
exogenous and endogenous 24, 62, 159, 11415, 122
303, 329 nancial crises 99100, 1045, 108, 11017,
output 17, 23, 38, 58, 6578, 84, 88, 106, 120, 1223
252, 317, 329 scal union 92, 94, 108
permanent 70, 74, 200 greenback 8, 924
supply 66, 68, 110 Hamilton Plan 938, 112, 121
systemic 185, 221, 252, 314 legal tender 969, 1023, 117, 120
temporary, transitory 58, 70, 74, 319 monetary union 23, 65, 912, 98, 102, 103,
Single Market 13, 45, 57, 60, 75, 218, 219, 301 107, 113, 118, 122
Single Market Programme 4, 59, 137, 150, New Deal 93, 94, 102, 1079, 113, 114, 119, 320
152, 156 no-bailout 91, 102, 112, 122
Sinn, Hans-Werner 267, 2705, 279, 285 political union 8, 23, 915, 102, 122, 234,
social rights, see welfare state 263, 284, 298, 317
solidarity
as by-product, see collective action, Varieties of Capitalism, see growth, growth
by-product theory regimes and crisis; political economy
by stealth 12 volatility paradox 79
and crisis management 2, 9, 18, 245, 41, 45,
65, 1212, 159, 174, 196, 215, 2245, 303, wage adjustment 175, 177, 184, 232
30910 Walters effect 118, 184, 200, 221, 3078
and ECB 41, 45, 82, 150, 211, 215, 224, Weidmann, Jens 268, 299
225, 323 welfare state 1112, 16, 25, 59, 70, 78, 79, 94,
see also paradox of diversity 109, 110, 120, 229, 232, 2334, 243, 2467,
solvency risks 15, 39, 44, 82, 83, 106, 115, 137, 249, 251, 252, 2624, 31516, 324
149, 207, 209, 220, 321 labor market reforms 40, 144, 163, 179, 241,
sovereign default 100, 148, 165, 187, 249, 264
189, 215 social citizenship 57, 22930, 234, 237,
sovereignty 11, 22, 172, 195, 330 239, 263
370

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What is the book about?

What is the book about?

What challenges does the author discuss regarding the euro?

What challenges does the author discuss regarding the euro?

The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity

The Political Economy

One of the greatest pleasures of writing a book is to experience how many

of the Bundesbank, Jens Ulbrich. Philippine Cour-Thimann, Johannes Lindner,

1. Introduction: Understanding the Euro Experiment 1

Part I. Building Blocks

3. Economic Risk Sharing between States 61

3.2 Sharing the Risk of Output Shocks between States 65

Part II. Evolving Monetary Unions of Limited Risk Sharing

5. The System of Limited Risk Sharing in the Euro Area 125

5.3 The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity in

7. Monetary Solidarity by Default and by Design 199

Part III. Solidarity in Action

9. Monetary Solidarity in Financial Integration 266

9.2.1 Payments Systems in Normal Times 276

10. The Experiment of the Euro 303

8.5. Correlation between migration rates and regional income growth

2.1. Overview of economic and political market failures 48

CEE Central and Eastern Europe

Monetary solidarity is not what many readers would spontaneously associate

1.1 The Political-Economic Paradox of Diversity

Creating the European monetary union between an ever expanding number

group of countries. Eminent scholars in economics, comparative political

Critical verdicts therefore rest on claims about how a mistaken economic

interest in preserving their national currencies, so as to assure the skeptics that

1.1.1 Diversity as Opportunity and as Challenge

EA experiment rely on metrics like income differentials to claim that Texas

overcome obstacles of heterogeneity (Martin 1995). This literature can explain

so scarce that it renders production unprotable. If monetary union can

1.1.2 The Puzzle of Monetary Solidarity

1.1.3 Overcoming Collective Action Problems

upholding institutions of monetary integration, such as new rules for budget-

bias of democracies generally and European countries specically (Hallerberg

1.2 The Economic Underpinning of Monetary Solidarity

Monetary integration is here understood to be a way of sharing risks between

1.2.1 Risks to Be Shared in Monetary Integration

tolerance or capacity to offer insurance to others: funding national or inter-

1.2.2 Risk-Sharing Mechanisms

1.2.3 Monetary Solidarity as the Outcome of Institutional Evolution

lender-of-last-resort role to sovereigns even in a systemic crisis (De Grauwe

1.2.4 The Non-Solution of Mainstream Economic Theory

Diversity was an important motivation for founding the European monet-

the high-minded, yet empty rhetoric typical of ofcial documents. It is a

The Political Economy of

The political economy of monetary solidarity is political economy in that it

thought that successful maintenance of a commons requires fairly homogen-

2.1 The Puzzle of Rational Cooperation

How can we explain the cooperation between national democracies, espe-

been the situation of Germanys reluctant hegemony (Bulmer and Paterson

for perceived weaknesses and aws of national democracies, notably their

This qualication should make clear, nally, that this conceptualization of

2.2 The By-Product Theory of Collective Action

2.2.1 Origins in the Logic of Collective Action

problem for continuing cooperation. Hardin (1982: 35) calls it a perverse

201011, is a pertinent exampleit has been obstructed, silently, even by the

2.2.2 Governing a Commons

In contrast to club goods, the problem of depletion by users with legitimate

1. output (GDP) gross income (GNI)net international factor income;