The document summarizes the S-I-R (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model of disease transmission. It describes three variations of the SIR model: [1] The simple SIS model which ignores demographics; [2] The simple epidemic model which also ignores demographics; [3] The full SIR model which includes births replenishing susceptible individuals. The full SIR model has two equilibrium states - disease-free and an endemic infected state which is stable if the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than one, leading to recurrent outbreaks.
The document summarizes the S-I-R (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model of disease transmission. It describes three variations of the SIR model: [1] The simple SIS model which ignores demographics; [2] The simple epidemic model which also ignores demographics; [3] The full SIR model which includes births replenishing susceptible individuals. The full SIR model has two equilibrium states - disease-free and an endemic infected state which is stable if the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than one, leading to recurrent outbreaks.
The document summarizes the S-I-R (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model of disease transmission. It describes three variations of the SIR model: [1] The simple SIS model which ignores demographics; [2] The simple epidemic model which also ignores demographics; [3] The full SIR model which includes births replenishing susceptible individuals. The full SIR model has two equilibrium states - disease-free and an endemic infected state which is stable if the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than one, leading to recurrent outbreaks.
The document summarizes the S-I-R (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model of disease transmission. It describes three variations of the SIR model: [1] The simple SIS model which ignores demographics; [2] The simple epidemic model which also ignores demographics; [3] The full SIR model which includes births replenishing susceptible individuals. The full SIR model has two equilibrium states - disease-free and an endemic infected state which is stable if the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than one, leading to recurrent outbreaks.
The simple SIS model could be reduced to one-dimension (as S and I are related), as such its dynamics are trivial and cannot capture the behavior of many real human diseases - although it can give a reasonable description of some STDs.
The Simple Epidemic Initially, we shall ignore all demography (births and deaths) by assuming that the progress of the disease is much more rapid than the natural birth and death rate. This model is called the Simple Epidemic and may provide a good description of a one-shot disease such as influenza
The initial condition for this system is S(0) = 1 , I (0) = , R (0) = 0, with << 1. Hence we are again dealing with proportions of the population, and we have assumed that all individuals are initially susceptible and then introduce a very small quantity of infection. We can find a value for R0, which again is /g. We note that there is still a simple relationship between S and R 0; when S > 1/R0 the disease increases whereas when S < 1/R0 the disease decreases. We note that the only fixed-point of the system is when there is no disease present I = 0. For this simple-epidemic, the more interesting question is the final state of the system. It is clear that without births to replenish the number of susceptible individuals, the level of susceptible must decrease through time. This in turn leads to a decrease in the amount of infection - the question is does the disease die out before the entire susceptible are exhausted. We now wish to determine the final size of the epidemic (R),
R = R() = 1 S() = total proportion infected
We calculate this value using an important trick developed by Kermack and McKendrick (1927):
We now use the fact that all the elements sum to one,
The equilibrium solutions occur when I = 0, substituting this in gives:
R = 1 exp (R0R).
Although this has no analytical solution we can easily calculate its value numerically, in which case we find that R rapidly approaches 1 as R0 becomes significantly larger than one. The full SIR model In reality there is no single model that can be called the SIR model - many different slight variations exist. The version given below is one of the most used, and displays all the important features common to this family of models.
In general this is a three-dimensional system, but to simplify matters we can set B = dN such that the population size remains constant, and then rescale so that we are again dealing with proportions. We now look at the fundamental parameters and dynamics of this model.
Let us again look at the value of R0, by comparison with the Simple Epidemic we would expect to have R0 = /(g + d); we shall check this from the eigenvalue behavior,
So the eigenvalues are = d and = g d, taking the second value (which is almost always larger) we see that R0 = (Infectious Period) + 1 = /(g + d).
For the full SIR model, with births replenishing the level of susceptible, there is a second fixed point in which the disease is present. From setting we get,
Which shouldnt be too surprising by now and comes from the linear interaction of susceptible and
infectious cases. And from ,
It should be clear that the number of infectious individuals is limited by the birth rate clearly it is impossible to keep infecting more people than are being born Looking at the Jacobian for this fixed point provides a very important insight into the dynamics of real diseases,
Therefore the eigenvalues are,
and making the assumption that d = B is small compared to the other terms
So it is clear that if R0 is greater than one then the diseased fixed point will be stable, and we converge to this point with damped oscillations.
Let us consider the period of these oscillations in more detail. The period T is given by: We note that this approximation only holds when the oscillations are small. For larger oscillations, the period between epidemics is longer.
Download Complete (Ebook) Qualitative Analysis of Nonlinear Elliptic Partial Differential Equations (Contemporary Mathematics and Its Applications Book Series) by Vicentiu Radulescu ISBN 9789774540394, 9774540395 PDF for All Chapters
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Download Complete (Ebook) Qualitative Analysis of Nonlinear Elliptic Partial Differential Equations (Contemporary Mathematics and Its Applications Book Series) by Vicentiu Radulescu ISBN 9789774540394, 9774540395 PDF for All Chapters
Instant Download Mastering Time Series Analysis and Forecasting with Python Bridging Theory and Practice Through Insights Techniques and Tools for Effective Time Series Analysis in Python 1st Edition Sulekha Aloorravi PDF All Chapters
