2016 Indian banknote demonetisation

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On 8 November 2016, the Government of India announced the

demonetisation of all 500 (US$7.80) and 1,000 (US$16) banknotes of 2016 Indian banknote
the Mahatma Gandhi Series.[2] The government claimed that the action demonetisation
would curtail the shadow economy and crack down on the use of illicit
and counterfeit cash to fund illegal activity and terrorism.[3][4] The
sudden nature of the announcementand the prolonged cash shortages in
the weeks that followedcreated significant disruption throughout the
economy, threatening economic output.[5][6]

Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi announced the demonetisation in

an unscheduled live televised address at 20:00 Indian Standard Time
(IST) on 8 November.[7][8] In the announcement, Modi declared that use
of all 500 and 1000 banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series would
Queues outside a bank to exchange 500
be invalid past midnight, and announced the issuance of new 500 and
2000 banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi New Series in exchange for the and 1000 banknotes in Bidhannagar,
old banknotes. Kolkata
Date 8 November 2016
The BSE SENSEX and NIFTY 50 stock indices fell over 6 percent on the
Time 20:15 IST (14:45 UTC)
day after the announcement.[9] In the days following the demonetisation,
the country faced severe cash shortages with severe detrimental effects Location India
across the economy.[10][11][12] People seeking to exchange their bank Casualties
notes had to stand in lengthy queues, and several deaths were linked to
the rush to exchange cash.[13][14] Independent stats: 100 dead as of 8
December 2016[1]
Initially, the move received support from several bankers as well as from
some international commentators. The move has also been criticised as poorly planned and unfair, and was met
with protests, litigation, and strikes against the government in several places across India. Debates also took place
concerning the move in both houses of parliament.[15][16][17][18] The move is considered to have reduced the
country's GDP and industrial production.

By the end of August 2017, 99% of the banned currency was deposited in banks, leaving only around 14,000
crore of the total demonetised currency.[19][20]

Contents
1 Background
2 Procedure
2.1 Televised address
2.2 Government ordinance
2.3 Exchange of old notes
2.3.1 Facts and figures
2.4 Withdrawal limits
2.4.1 Exceptions
3 Prior leakage of information
3.1 Allegations and claims
3.2 April fools joke
4 Black money
5 Reactions
5.1 Support
5.2 Criticism
5.3 Opposition
5.3.1 Strikes
 6 Effects
6.1 Banking
6.2 Human trafficking
6.3 Radical groups
6.4 Hawala
6.5 Railways
6.6 Cash shortage
6.7 Deaths
6.8 Stock market decline
6.9 Transportation disruption
6.10 Agriculture
6.11 Business
6.12 Digital transactions
6.13 GDP growth
6.13.1 Forecasts
6.13.2 Results
6.14 Drop in industrial output
6.15 Job losses
6.16 Income tax filing increase
6.17 Municipal and local tax payments
6.18 People left with old notes
6.19 RBI dividend decline
7 Evasion attempts
7.1 Gold purchases
7.2 Donations in temples
7.3 Multiple bank transactions
7.4 Railway bookings
7.5 Backdated accounting
7.6 Demonetisation violations
8 Income tax raids and cash seizures
8.1 Seizures of 2000 notes
9 See also
10 References
11 External links

Background
The Indian government had demonetised bank notes on two prior occasionsonce in 1946 and then in 1978and
in both cases, the goal was to combat tax evasion by "black money" held outside the formal economic system.[21]
In 1946, the pre-independence government hoped demonetisation would penalise Indian businesses that were
concealing the fortunes amassed supplying the Allies in World War II.[21] In 1978, the Janata Party coalition
government demonetised banknotes of 1000, 5000 and 10,000 rupees, again in the hopes of curbing counterfeit
money and black money.[22]

In 2012, the Central Board of Direct Taxes had recommended against demonetisation, saying in a report that
"demonetisation may not be a solution for tackling black money or economy, which is largely held in the form of
benami properties, bullion and jewellery."[23][24] According to data from income tax probes, black money holders
kept only 6% or less of their wealth as cash, suggesting that targeting this cash would not be a successful
strategy.[25]

On 28 October 2016 the total banknotes in circulation in India was 17.77 trillion (US$280 billion). In terms of
value, the annual report of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of 31 March 2016 stated that total bank notes in circulation
valued to 16.42 trillion (US$260 billion) of which nearly 86% (around 14.18 trillion (US$220 billion)) were
500 and 1,000 banknotes. In terms of volume, the report stated that 24% (around 22.03 billion) of the total
9026.6 crore (90.26 billion) banknotes were in circulation.[26]
In the past, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had opposed demonetisation. BJP spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi had
said in 2014 that "The aam aurats and the aadmis (general population), those who are illiterate and have no access
to banking facilities, will be the ones to be hit by such diversionary measures."[27][28][29][30]

In June, the Government of India had devised the Income Declaration Scheme, that lasted till 30 September 2016,
providing an opportunity to citizens holding black money and undeclared assets to avoid litigation and come clean
by declaring their assets, paying the tax on them and a penalty of 45% thereafter.[31]

Procedure
The plan to demonetise the rupee 500 and rupee 1000 bank notes began six to ten months prior, and was kept
highly confidential with only about ten people aware of it completely. The logistical processes and preparations for
printing the new rupee 500 and rupee 2000 bank notes began in early-May. The cabinet was informed about the
demonetisation on 8 November 2016 in a meeting called by the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi which was
followed by Modi's public announcement about the demonetisation in a televised address.[32]

Televised address

On 8 November 2016, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi announced the demonetisation in an unscheduled
live televised address to the nation at 20:15 IST.[7][8] In the announcement, Modi declared circulation of all 500
and 1,000 banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series as invalid effective from the midnight of the same day, and
announced the issuance of new 500 and 2,000 banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi New Series in exchange for
the old notes.

After Modi's announcement, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Urjit Patel, and Economic Affairs
secretary, Shaktikanta Das explained in a press conference that one purpose of the action was to fight terrorism
funded by counterfeit notes. While the supply of notes of all denominations had increased by 40 percent between
2011 and 2016, the 500 and 1,000 banknotes increased by 76 percent and 109 percent, respectively, owing to
forgery. They said that forged cash was used to fund terrorist activities against India and that the demonetisation
had a counter-terrorism purpose.[33]

Patel also informed that the decision had been made about six months ago, and the printing of new banknotes of
denomination 500 and 2,000 had already started. However, only the top members of the government, security
agencies and the central bank were aware of the move. But media had reported in October 2016 about the
introduction of 2,000 denomination well before the official announcement by RBI. This statement has led to
much debate, because the Reserve Bank governor six months before the announcement was Raghuram Rajan,
while the new banknotes have the signature of the newly appointed governor, Urjit Patel.[34][35]

Government ordinance

The Specified Bank Notes (Cessation of Liabilities) Ordinance, 2016 was issued by the Government of India on 28
December 2016 ceasing the liability of the government for the banned bank notes, and also imposing a fine up to
10,000 or five times the amount of the face value of the bank notes, whichever is higher, for people transacting
with them after 8 November 2016; or holding more than ten of them after 30 December 2016. The ordinance also
provided for the exchange of the bank notes after December 30 for non-resident citizens and others on a case by
case basis.[36][37]

However, Petrol, CNG and gas stations, government hospitals, railway and airline booking counters, state-
government recognised dairies and ration stores, and crematoriums were allowed to accept the banned 500 and
1,000 bank notes until December 2, 2016.[38]

Exchange of old notes

The Reserve Bank of India stipulated a window of fifty days until 30 December 2016 to deposit the demonetised
banknotes as credit in bank accounts. The banknotes could also be exchanged over the counter of bank branches up
to a limit that varied over the days:[2]
 Initially, the limit was fixed at 4,000 per person from 8 to 13
November.
This limit was increased to 4,500 per person from 14 to 17
November.[39][40]
The limit was reduced to 2,000 per person from 18 November.[41]

All exchange of banknotes was abruptly stopped from 25 November

2016.[42] People gathered at ATM of Axis Bank at
16th November 2016 inMehsana,
International airports were also instructed to facilitate an exchange of notes Gujarat to withdraw cash following
amounting to a total value of 5,000 for foreign tourists and out-bound deposit of demonetised currency notes in
passengers.[43] bank on 15 November 2016.

Facts and figures

Up to 97%[44][45][46] of the demonetised bank notes have been deposited into banks which have received a total of
14.97 trillion ($220 billion) as of December 30 out of the 15.4 trillion that was demonetised. This is against the
government's initial estimate that 3 trillion would not return to the banking system.[47]

Of the 15.4 trillion demonetised in the form of 500 and 1000 bank notes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series, 9.2
trillion in the form of 500 and 2000 bank notes of the Mahatma Gandhi New Series has been recirculated as of
10 January 2017, two months after the demonetisation.[48]
20

15

10

Currency Currency Currency Currency Currency Currency Currency Currency

demonetisedissued as issued as issued as issued as issued as issued as issued as
on 8 Nov of 18 Nov of 28 Nov of 7 Dec of 21 Dec of 10 Jan of 24 Feb of 28 Apr
'16 '16 [49] '16[50] '16[51] '16[52] '17[48] '17 [53] '17[54]

Withdrawal limits

Cash withdrawals from bank accounts were restricted to 10,000 per day and 20,000 per week per account from
10 to 13 November.[2] This limit was increased to 24,000 per week from 14 November 2016.[39][40]

A daily limit on withdrawals from ATMs was also imposed varying from 2,000 per day till 14 November,[55] and
2,500 per day till 31 December.[39][40] This limit was increased to 4,500 per day from January 1,[56] and again
to 10,000 from January 16, 2017. Limits placed vide the circulars cited above on cash withdrawals from Current
accounts/ Cash credit accounts/ Overdraft accounts stand withdrawn with immediate effect. RBI increased the
withdrawal limit from Savings Bank account to Rs 50,000 from the earlier Rs 24,000 on February 20, 2017 and
then on March 13, 2017, it removed all withdrawal limits from Savings Bank Accounts.[57]

Exceptions
Under the revised guidelines issued on 17 November 2016, families were allowed to withdraw 250,000 (2.5
lakh) for wedding expenses from one account provided it was KYC compliant. The rules were also changed for
farmers who are permitted to withdraw 25,000 per week from their accounts against crop loans.[41][58]

Prior leakage of information

A fortnight before the official announcement, a news report in the Hindi daily Dainik Jagran quoting RBI sources
mentioned about the coming release of new 2000 rupee note alongside withdrawal of 500 and 1000 rupee
notes.[59][60] Similar news came in The Hindu Business Line on 21 October 2016 which also mentions about
coming 2000 rupee note and about possible withdrawal of 500 and 1000 rupee notes.[61]

A businessman reportedly admitted in an interview that he had received prior warning of the impending
demonetisation from a source in the government, and that he had sufficient time to convert most of his money into
smaller denominations.[62]

The chairman of the State Bank of India had also openly spoken in April 2016 about the possibility of
demonetisation of 500 and 1000 notes.[63]

A BJP MLA from Rajasthan, Bhawani Singh Rajawat, claimed in a video that 'Ambani and Adani' were informed
about the demonetisation, and made arrangements. However, he later said that it was an off-the-record
conversation, and officially denied the comments.[64][65]

Allegations and claims

The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) alleged that the BJP unit in West Bengal had advance knowledge
about the impending announcement, and deposited money just before the announcement.[66][67] Aam Aadmi Party
leader Arvind Kejriwal also claimed that there had been some leakage regarding the move.[68][69] Kejriwal
questioned how Sanjeev Kamboj, a BJP leader in Punjab, posted about the 2000 notes days before the official
announcement, and alleged that a sudden spike in bank deposits between July and September 2016 was also due to
information leakage.[70] The Congress party demanded a probe into this huge jump in bank deposits before the
demonetisation.[71] Kamboj rubbished Kejriwal's allegations by saying that he only tweeted that a new 2000 note
would be issued but nowhere did he mention that old notes would be banned and that there were already some
news reports about the introduction of new 2000 note. He said Kejriwal is doing dirty politics.[72]

Nitish Kumar,[73][74] Arvind Kejriwal[75] and Rahul Gandhi[76] alleged that the BJP made large purchases of land
in Bihar ahead of the demonetisation because they had prior information. Rejecting all the allegations, Bihar BJP
said that all these purchases have been in public domain and that full records of the transactions are available. It
also said that payments were made through drafts and RTGS. The BJP claimed that there were thousands of
registries in Bihar in the last few months, some of which could have been made in the names of politicians from
other parties and asked whether it meant that all of them had prior knowledge of demonetisation.[77]

More than 30 politicians belonging to the BJP were arrested and investigated for having unaccounted money in the
new 2000 rupee denomination.[78]

April fools joke

Seven months before the announcement, the Gujarati newspaper Akila published an article that "announced" the
demonetisation of 500 and 1000 rupee notes.[79][80] The editor of the newspaper claimed that it was only an April
fools day prank.[81] The article contained many details that matched the actual announcement in November,
including the creation of new 2000 notes. The coincidence received wide coverage, and was called "mystical"
and "uncanny."[82]

Black money
A Central Bank's report released in August 2017 stated that 99% of the 500 and 1000 notes that were
demonetised returned to the banking system.[83][84][85] Therefore, the government failed in its aim of purging black
money from the economy. India's Prime Minister Modi, had said that due to demonetisation, corrupt officials,
businessmen and criminals popularly believed to hoard large amounts of illicit cash would be stuck with
worthless pieces of paper.[19] The amount of money deposited in the banks was much more than the government
had expected at the time of banning the notes.[86]Prominent economic analyst Vivek Kaul, said in a BBC article
that "demonetisation had been a failure of epic proportions."[20] It was highlighted that there were meagre or no
gains as against ill effects such as the cost of printing new notes, loss of livelihoods and deaths.[87]

Reactions
Support

The decision met with mixed initial reactions. Several bankers like Arundhati Bhattacharya (Chairperson of State
Bank of India) and Chanda Kochhar (MD & CEO of ICICI Bank) appreciated the move in the sense that it would
help curb black money.[88] Businessmen Anand Mahindra (Mahindra Group), Sajjan Jindal (JSW Group), Kunal
Bahl (Snapdeal and FreeCharge) also supported the move adding that it would also accelerate e-commerce.[88]
Infosys founder N. R. Narayana Murthy praised the move.[89][90]

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that demonetisation would clean the complete economic system, increase the
size of economy and revenue base. He mentioned the demonetisation along with the upcoming Goods and Services
Tax (GST) as "an attempt to change the spending habit and lifestyle."[91]

The Indian National Congress spokesperson Randeep Surjewala welcomed the move but remained sceptical on the
consequences that would follow.[92] Chief Minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar supported the move.[93][94][95] The
demonetisation also got support from Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh Nara Chandrababu Naidu.[96][97][98]
Former Chief Election Commissioner of India S. Y. Quraishi said demonetisation could lead to long term electoral
reforms.[99] Indian social activist Anna Hazare hailed demonetisation as a revolutionary step.[100][101][102] The
President of India Pranab Mukherjee welcomed the demonetisation move by calling it bold step.[103][104][105][106]
The opinion of the masses varied both ways on micro-blogs and social media sites like Twitter.[107]

By and large, international response was positive which saw the move as a bold crackdown on
corruption.[108][109][110] International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a statement supporting Modi's efforts to fight
corruption by the demonetisation policy.[108]

Chinese state media Global Times praised the move and termed it as "fierce fight against black money and
corruption."[109] Former Prime Minister of Finland and Vice-President of European Commission Jyrki Katainen
welcomed the demonetisation move stressing that bringing transparency will strengthen Indian economy.[111][112]
BBC's South Asia Correspondent Justin Rowlatt in his article praised the move for its secrecy and success and
elaborated on reason behind demonetisation.[113] Tim Worstall termed the demonetisation as welcome
macroeconomic effect in his article in Forbes magazine.[114] Swedish Minister of Enterprise Mikael Damberg
supported the move by calling it bold decision.[110]

Singapore-based paper The Independent published a laudatory article on the move titled "Modi does a Lee Kuan
Yew to stamp out corruption in India." Lee Kuan Yew was the Singaporean Prime Minister and is considered the
architect of modern Singapore. "From making up his mind to rolling it out, a new Lee Kuan Yew is born in India. It
will be reflected in the legacy of this Prime Minister," the article said.[115]

Indian-American economist Jagdish Bhagwati praised the demonetisation.[116]

Criticism

The Indian Supreme Court while hearing one among a slew of cases filed against the sudden demonetisation
decision in various courts,[117] observed that it "appears to be carpet bombing and not surgical strike" which
government repeatedly claims it to be.[118]
Nobel laureate Indian economist Amartya Sen, severely criticised the demonetisation move calling it a "despotic
action" among other things.[119][120][121]

Former Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist of the World Bank, Kaushik Basu, called it a 'major mistake'
and said that the 'damage' is likely to be much greater than any possible benefits.[122][123][124]

Pronab Sen, former Chief Statistician and Planning Commission of India member, called it a "hollow move" since
it did not really address any of the purported goals of tackling black money or fake currency.[125]

Prabhat Patnaik, a former professor of economics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi called the move
'witless' and 'anti-people'. He criticised the simple way in which black money was assumed as "a hoard of cash",
saying that it would have little effect in eliminating "black activities" while "causing much hardship to common
people."[126]

Noted economist and journalist, T. N. Ninan wrote in the Business Standard that demonetisation 'looks like a bad
idea, badly executed on the basis of some half-baked notions'.[127] Deepak Parekh (Chairman of HDFC) had
initially appreciated the decision to ban the 500 and 1000 notes, but later said that the move had derailed the
economy, and expressed skepticism about its outcome.[128][129] Industrialist Rajiv Bajaj criticised the
demonetisation, saying that not just the execution, but the concept of demonetisation was wrong in itself.[130]

Chief Ministers of several Indian states like Mamata Banerjee,[131] Arvind Kejriwal[132] and Pinarayi Vijayan[133]
have criticised and led major protests against the decision in their states and in parliament. Initially, the move to
demonetise and try to hinder black money was appreciated, but the manner in which it was carried out by causing
hardships to common people was criticised.[134] A Public Interest Litigation (PIL) was filed in Madras High Court
by M Seeni Ahamed, General Secretary of the Indian National League, to scrap the decision. The High Court
dismissed the PIL stating that it could not interfere in monetary policies of the government.[135] Similar PILs were
also filed in the Supreme Court of India.[136] Supreme Court of India is yet to decide on the matter. It is listed for
hearing on 2 December 2016.

Several government ministers had declared before the demonetisation that they were holding large amounts of
cash, including Arun Jaitley, who had more than 65 lakh rupees in cash. This led to speculation about whether and
when the ministers had deposited the cash they held.[137][138]

Steve Forbes described the move as 'Sickening And Immoral'.[139] He stated that "What India has done is commit a
massive theft of people's property without even the pretense of due process--a shocking move for a democratically
elected government."[139] Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said that it is difficult to see gains from demonetisation,
while there may be significant costs to it.[140]

The demonetisation also came in for sharp criticism from media outside India,[141][142] with the New York Times
saying that the demonetisation was "atrociously planned" and that it did not appear to have combatted black
money,[143][144] while an article in The Guardian stated that "Modi has brought havoc to India".[141] The Harvard
Business Review called it "a case study in poor policy and even poorer execution"[145] The frequent change in the
narrative on objectives of the demonetisation to its visible impact on the poorest of the poor made other critiques
calling government's narrative as spins in view of the "pointless suffering on India's poorest."[146]

A Parliamentary panel report in April 2017 stated that rural households and honest taxpayers were the worst hit by
demonetisation.[147] It said that it was not just the poor that suffered, but the manufacturing sector was impacted
too.[148] According to the panel, demonetisation created significant disruption throughout economy, because it was
carried out without prior study or research.[149]

Opposition

A Congress led opposition which includes 13 political parties, opposed the current government on the
demonetisation issue in the Winter Session of the Indian Parliament on 16 November 2016. The Chief Minister of
West Bengal Mamata Banerjee also met the President Pranab Mukherjee to oppose the

demonetisation.[150][151][152][153][154][155] The debate on demonetisation is known to be initiated by Indian

demonetisation.[150][151][152][153][154][155] The debate on demonetisation is known to be initiated by Indian
National Congress[156] and Anand Sharma in the Rajya Sabha on 16 November 2016,[157][158] while Banerjee is
known to be the first to oppose the current government on the demonetisation.[159]

On 16 November 2016, Banerjee led a rainbow delegation comprising political parties of Trinamool Congress,
Aam Aadmi Party, BJP ally Shiv Sena, Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (of Hardik Patel) and National Conference
to Rashtrapati Bhawan to protest against the decision to withdraw the 500 and 1000 banknotes. A memorandum
was submitted to the President of India Pranab Mukherjee demanding rollback of the decision.[160] Outside the
Parliament in a rally the same day, Saugata Roy, a member of parliament from the opposition Trinamool Congress
Party, commented, "People are in utter distress, especially the informal sector is totally disrupted. Poor people,
daily wage earners, they're all facing difficulty."[13]

In the demonetisation debate on the first day of the winter session of Parliament at the Rajya Sabha, Pramod Tiwari
from the Indian National Congress compared Narendra Modi to Benito Mussolini, Adolf Hitler and Muammar
Gaddafi.[161] Prem Chand Gupta, a member of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, questioned a statement of Modi from the
unscheduled TV broadcast on 8 November, "If it was planned 10 months ago, how did RBI Governor Urjit Patel
sign on new note?". Praful Patel, a member of the Nationalist Congress Party, stated that "the government was not
even prepared to recalibrate the ATMs while announcing the move. People's suffering are unimaginable. Nobody is
questioning the government's intention, but you are unprepared to execute the move". Later, the former Chief
Minister of Uttar Pradesh Mayawati Prabhu Das stated the situation to "a financial emergency", by saying "It looks
as if Bharat has shut down." Also, Sitaram Yechury from Communist Party of India, questioned the government on
the demonetisation move by stating "only 6% of black money in India is in cash to drive his point that
demonetisation won't curb illicit wealth."[162]

On 17 November 2016, in a rally against demonetisation of 500 and 1000 notes, led by the Chief Minister of
Delhi Arvind Kejriwal and his West Bengal counterpart Mamata Banerjee at Azadpur Mandi, the biggest vegetable
and fruits wholesale hub in the national capital; Kejriwal demanded the withdrawal of demonetisation in 3 days.
Banerjee also stated "I give the government 3 day ultimatum, fix things or withdraw the demonetisation
scheme".[163]

In the demonetisation debate on the second and third day of the Winter Session of Parliament, on 17 and 18
November 2016, the opposition and the government clashed over the demonetisation issue, bringing the house to
continuous halts.[164]

On 24 November 2016, in the demonetisation debate, the former prime minister of India Manmohan Singh said
"this scheme will hurt small industries, the farming sector. The GDP can decline by about 3 per cent due to this
move", while he also questioned "I would like to ask the Prime Minister examples of countries where people have
deposited their money in the banks and not allowed to withdraw their own money." and later also said "It is no
good that on each day banks bring out new notifications. It doesn't reflect properly on Prime Minister's Office,
Finance Minister and the Reserve Bank of India. Cooperative banking system has been prevented from handling
cash".[165] Singh at last termed the demonetisation move as an "organised loot, legalised plunder of the common
people".[166]

Strikes

As the demonetisation was opposed in both houses of the parliament, it triggered organised nationwide strikes
across India. Opposition parties like Indian National Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party, Trinamool Congress,[167]
DMK, JD(U), AIADMK, Nationalist Congress Party, Left, Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Samajwadi Party[168]
decided to observe Akrosh Diwas as, a protest campaign day on November 28 [169][170] and launch protests in
front of banks, demanding that money be returned to people.[171] In the state of Bihar, 15 trains were blocked and
stranded, while the states of West Bengal, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh saw protest marches and rallies led by
opposition parties.[172] In the state of Kerala, shops and business establishments were shut, with school and
colleges closed throughout the state, while movements of private vehicles were also disrupted in Northern
Kerala.[172]
The Congress party has decided to launch a nationwide movement to expose the "biggest scam" of independent
India, said spokesperson leader Randeep Surjewala on 31 December 2016. The first phase would take place from
January 110, second phase from January 1120 and third phase from January 2030.[173][174]

Effects
Banking

In the first four days after the announcement of

the step, about 3 trillion (US$47 billion) in
the form of old 500 and 1,000 banknotes
had been deposited in the banking system and
about 500 billion (US$7.8 billion) had been
dispensed via withdrawals from bank accounts,
ATMs as well as exchanges over the bank
counters. Within these four days, the banking A State Bank of India branch remained open at night, and a long queue of
people waited outside the ATM to withdraw money
system has handled about 18 crore (180
million) transactions.[39] The State Bank of
India reported to have received more than
300 billion (US$4.7 billion) in bank deposit in first two days after demonetisation.[175][176][177] A spike in the
usage of debit card and credit card post demonetisation was also reported.[178]

Between November 10 and November 27, banks reported exchange and deposits of demonetised banknotes worth
8.45 trillion (US$130 billion) (exchange of 339.48 billion (US$5.3 billion) and deposits of 8.11 trillion
(US$130 billion)). During this period, an amount of 2.16 lakh crore (US$34 billion) had been withdrawn by
people from their accounts.[179]

In Malda, a district believed to be a transit-point for fake Indian currencies,[180] a large sum of cash deposits in
dormant accounts were also reported. According to The Economic Times, more than 80 percent of fake currency in
India originates from Malda district in West Bengal.[181]

Human trafficking

Nobel laureate Kailash Satyarthi and others working to fight human trafficking said that the note ban had led to a
huge fall in sex trafficking.[182] Satyarthi said the demonetisation would be effective in combating exploitation of
children as well as corruption and would be a great obstacle to traffickers.[183] However, 2 months later he
expressed his disappointment on Rs 2000 notes being pushed into human trafficking in absence of other concrete
steps.[184]

Radical groups

The Demonetisation has badly hit Maoist and Naxalites as well. The surrender rate has reached its highest since the
demonetisation is announced. It is said that the money these organisations have collected over the years have left
with no value and it has caused them to reach to this decision.[185]

The move also reportedly crippled Communist guerrilla groups (Naxalites) financing through money
laundering.[186][187] On 10 November the police arrested a petrol pump owner at Ranchi when he reportedly tried
to deposit 2.5 billion, belonging to a person affiliated with the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist).[188]
According to Chhattisgarh Police demonetisation has affected the Naxalite activities. It is reported that insurgents
have stashed more than 70 billion in the Bastar region.[187][189][190]

While Manohar Parrikar claimed that the move has also helped in reducing the incidents of stone-pelting in the
Kashmir valley,[191][192][193] his claim has been disputed.[194][195][196][197]

Hawala
Mumbai Police reported a setback to Hawala operations.[198][199] Hawala dealers in Kerala were also affected.[200]
Mumbai Police reported a setback to Hawala operations.[198][199] Hawala dealers in Kerala were also affected.[200]
The Jammu and Kashmir Police reported the effect of demonetisation on hawala transactions of separatists.[201]

Railways

As of November 2016, Indian Railways did not have the option to make payment with cards at the counters. After
the demonetisation move, the government announced to make card payment options available at railway counters
in the country.[202] The railways placed an order for 10,000 card reader machines in January 2017.[203]

Cash shortage

The scarcity of cash due to demonetisation led to chaos, and most people
holding old banknotes faced difficulties exchanging them due to endless
queues outside banks and ATMs across India, which became a daily routine
for millions of people waiting to deposit or exchange the 500 and 1000
banknotes since 9 November.[13][10][11][204][12] ATMs were running out of
cash after a few hours of being functional, and around half the ATMs in the
country were non-functional.[11] Sporadic violence was reported in New
Delhi, but there were no reports of any grievous injury,[205] people attacked
bank premises and ATMs,[206][207][208][209][210][211] and a ration shop was Queue at an ATM for 100 banknotes in
looted in Madhya Pradesh after the shop owner refused to accept 500 Howrah, on 8 November 2016, 22:23
banknotes.[212][213][214][215] (IST)

The CMD of Punjab National Bank said that panic after demonetisation
started fading on 19 November 2016.[216] As of 18 December 2016, there were still long queues at banks and
ATMs.[217][218] Three months after the withdrawal of banknotes, a quarter of the ATMs were still short of
cash.[219]

The cash shortage was still ongoing in the month of April 2017, five months after the
demonetisation.[220][221][222][223] According to a survey, the situation was as bad as 83% of people being unable to
withdraw money in Hyderabad, while in Pune, the figure was 69%.[223]

Deaths

In March 2017, the government stated that they received no official report on deaths connected to
demonetisation.[224]

Several people were reported to have died from standing in queues for hours to exchange their old
banknotes.[225][226][227][228][229][230] Deaths were also attributed to lack of medical help due to refusal of old
banknotes by hospitals.[231][232][233] As of 15 November 2016, the attributed death toll was 25.[14][234][235] and 33
deaths as of 18 November. In an interview, Chief Minister of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal lashed out at a BBC reporter
who asked him to justify his 19 November claim that 55 deaths were linked to demonetisation.[236] By the end of
the year, opposition leaders claimed that over 100 people had died due to demonetisation.[237][238][239]

Stock market decline

As a combined effect of demonetisation and US presidential election, the stock market indices dropped to an
around six-month low in the week following the announcement. The day after the demonetisation announcement,
BSE SENSEX crashed nearly 1,689 points and NIFTY 50 plunged by over 541 points.[9] By the end of the
intraday trading section on 15 November 2016, the BSE SENSEX index was lower by 565 points and the NIFTY
50 index was below 8100 intraday.[240]

Transportation disruption
After the demonetisation was announced, about 800,000 truck drivers were affected with scarcity of cash, with
around 400,000 trucks stranded at major highways across India were reported.[241] While major highway toll
junctions on the Gujarat and Delhi-Mumbai highways also saw long queues as toll plaza operators refused the old
banknotes.

Nitin Gadkari, the Minister of Transport, subsequently announced a suspension of toll collections on all national
highways across India until midnight of 11 November, later extended until 14 November and again until midnight
of 18 November, and yet again till 2 December.[242][243]

Agriculture

Transactions in the Indian agriculture sector are heavily dependent on cash and were adversely affected by the
demonetisation of 500 and 1,000 banknotes.[244] Due to scarcity of the new banknotes, many farmers have
insufficient cash to purchase seeds, fertilisers and pesticides needed for the plantation of rabi crops usually sown
around mid-November.[245] Farmers and their unions conducted protest rallies in Gujarat, Amritsar and
Muzaffarnagar against the demonetisation as well as against restrictions imposed by the Reserve Bank of India on
district cooperative central banks which were ordered not to accept or exchange the demonetised
banknotes.[246][247][248][249]

The demonetisation led to unavailability of cash to pay for food products. The reduction in demand that arose in
turn led to a crash in the prices of crops. Farmers were unable to recover even the costs of transportation from their
fields to the market from the low prices offered.[250][251] The prices dropped as low as 50 paise per kilo for
tomatoes[252] and onions.[251] This forced the farmers across the country to dump their products in
desperation.[252][253][254][255] Some farmers resorted to burying unsold vegetables.[256] Agricultural produce such
as vegetables, foodgrains, sugarcane, milk and eggs were dumped on roads.[257][258] Some farmers dumped their
produce in protest against the government.[258][259]

Business

By the second week after demonetisation of 500 and 1,000 banknotes, cigarette sales across India witnessed a
fall of 3040%,[260] while E-commerce companies saw up to a 30% decline in cash on delivery (COD)
orders.[261][262]

Digital transactions

Several e-commerce companies hailed the demonetisation decision as an impetus to an increase in digital
payments, hoping that it would lead to a decline in COD returns which could cut down their costs.[263]

The demand for point of sales (POS) or card swipe machines increased.[264] E-payment options like PayTM and
Instamojo Payment Gateway, PayUMoney also saw a rise.[265] According to data of Pine Labs, the demand for its
POS machines doubled after the decision. The company stated that the debit card transactions rose by 108% and
credit card transactions by 60% on 9 November 2016.[264]

After peaking in December 2016, digital transactions declined from January 2017 onwards, thus thwarting the
objective of increasing digital payments through demonetisation.[266][267]

GDP growth

Forecasts

Global analysts cut their forecasts of India's GDP growth rate for the financial year 2016-17 by 0.5 to 3 percent due
to demonetisation.[268][269] India's GDP in 2016 is estimated to be US$2.25 trillion, hence, each 1 per cent
reduction in growth rate represents a shortfall of US$22.5 billion ( 1.54 lakh crore) for the Indian economy.[270]
According to Societe Generale, India's quarterly GDP growth rates would drop below 7% for an entire year at a
stretch for the first time since June 2011.[271]
8
 8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1

Goldman Ambit Emkay ICRA Fitch Morgan HSBC World ADB

Sachs Capital Global Ratings Stanley Bank

Before demonetisation After demonetisation

After demonetisation
[268][269][272][273][274][275][275][276]

Results

India's GDP growth for the quarter Jan-Mar '17 was 6.1% as against a forecast of 7.1% by economists.[277] The
GDP growth for the entire fiscal year was 7.1%, a reduction from the 8% of the previous year.[278] This drop in
GDP was attributed to demonetisation by economists.[279]

The GDP growth rate for the quarter April - June 2017 dropped to 5.7%, in comparison to 7.9% for the same
quarter in the previous year.[280] This drop in GDP growth was attributed to demonetisation.[281] This was the
lowest growth in GDP since 2014.[282] The drop in GDP growth was exactly as predicted by Manmohan Singh in
November 2016.[283][284]

Drop in industrial output

There was a reduction in industrial output as industries were hit by the cash crisis.[285] The Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI) fell to 46.7 in November from 54.5 in October, recording its sharpest reduction in three years.[286] A
reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below shows contraction. This indicates a slowdown in both,
manufacturing and services industries.[287] The PMI report showed also showed that the reduction in inflation in
November was due to shortage in money supply.[286]

The growth in eight core sectors such as cement, steel and refinery products, which constitute 38% of the Index of
Industrial Production (IIP), was only to 4.9 percent in November as compared with 6.6 percent in October.[287][288]

Job losses

There was a loss of jobs due to demonetisation, particularly in the unorganised and informal sector and in small
enterprises. Labour union jobs were crashed[289][290][291]

Income tax filing incr ease

The number of I-T returns filed for 2016-17 grew by 25 per cent to 2.82 crore, and the advance tax collections
during that period rose 41.8% over the 1-year period, as increased number of individuals filed their tax returns post
demonetisation. The Indian officials said: "The number of returns filed as on August 5 stands at 2,82,92,955 as
against 2,26,97,843 filed during the corresponding period of the fiscal year 2016-2017, registering an increase of
24.7% compared to growth rate of 9.9% in the previous year. Advance tax collections of personal income tax (i.e.
other than corporate tax) as on August 5, 2017, showed a growth of about 41.79% over the corresponding period in
FY 2016-2017. Personal income tax under self-assessment tax (SAT) grew at 34.25% over the corresponding
period in FY 2016-2017. [292][293]
Municipal and local tax payments

As the use of the demonetised notes had been allowed by the government for the payment of municipal and local
body taxes, it led to people using the demonetised 500 and 1,000 notes to pay large amounts of outstanding and
advance taxes. As a result, revenue collections of the local civic bodies jumped. The Greater Hyderabad Municipal
Corporation reported collecting about 1.6 billion (US$25 million) in cash payments of outstanding and advance
taxes, within 4 days.[294]

The tax collection by local bodies have surged over 260% [295] and more than 15,000 crore more after 14 days of
demonetisation.[296] The total indirect tax collection rose to 14.2% only in the month of December according to
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.[297]

People left with old notes

The government had initially announced that any person who is unable to deposit the old notes by 31 December
2016 would be given an opportunity to do so until a later date.[2] However, the government allowed only NRIs to
deposit old notes after 31 December 2016.[298] As a result, many people with legitimately earned old notes were
left stranded with old currency notes. This included soldiers who were on duty during the demonetisation
period,[299][300] people who had suffered a bereavement,[299] and persons who had old notes received as wedding
gifts before the demonetisation.[301] Many people found small amounts of currency stashed away inside quilts,
pillows, cupboards, lockers, behind old photographs and wall hangings, in some cases by family members who had
died.[299][301][302] In one case, two destitute orphans found 96,000 left by their mother and petitioned the Prime
Minister for relief.[303][304] A poor woman who was unable to get her old notes exchanged stripped outside the
RBI office in desperation.[305][306][307] OCIs and PIOs were also not allowed to exchange old notes.[308] People
petitioned the courts to allow deposit of the old banknotes.[309] The Supreme Court of India also questioned the
government on this matter.[310][311]

RBI dividend decline

The dividend paid by the Reserve Bank to the government for the financial year 2016-17 was Rs. 30.7 lakh crore,
as against the expectation of Rs. 74.9 lakh crore.[312] This was less than half the dividend of Rs 65.9 lakh crore
paid by the RBI in 2015-16. This decrease was due to demonetisation.[313][312] It was estimated that this decrease
in income for the government could cause the fiscal deficit for the financial year 2016-17 to increase from the
targeted 3.2% to 3.4%.[314] To avoid increasing the fiscal deficit, the government would have to reduce spending
on social schemes, or increase revenue through taxes or other means.[314]

Evasion attempts
Gold purchases

In Gujarat, Delhi and many other major cities, sales of gold increased on 9
November, with an increased 20 to 30% premium surging the price as
much as 45,000 (US$700) from the ruling price of 31,900 (US$500) per
10 grams (0.35 oz).[315][316]

Income Tax officials raided multiple branches of Axis Bank and found A jewellery store in a shopping mall with
bank officials involved in money laundering acts, exchanging old notes for a notice "We accept 500 and 1000
gold.[317][318][319] notes", even after they were no longer
valid banknotes.
Donations in temples

In India, the cash deposited into hundis, or cash collection boxes in temples and gurudwaras are exempted from
inquiry by the tax department.[320] This exemption is sometimes misused to launder money.[321] After the note
ban, there was a spike in donations in the form of the demonetised notes in temples.[322][323][324] Authorities of Sri
Jalakanteswarar temple at Vellore discovered cash worth 4.4 million (US$69,000) from the temple hundi in the
form of defunct notes.[325]

Multiple bank transactions

There have been reports of people circumventing the restrictions imposed on exchange transactions by conducting
multiple transactions at different bank branches and also sending hired people, employees and followers in groups
to exchange large amounts of banned currency at banks.[326][327] In response, the government announced that it
would start marking customers with indelible ink. This was in addition to other measures proposed to ensure that
the exchange transactions are carried out only once by each person.[328][329][330]

Railway bookings

As soon as the demonetisation was announced, it was observed by the Indian Railways authorities that a large
number of people started booking tickets particularly in classes 1A and 2A for the longest distance possible, to get
rid of unaccounted cash. A senior official said, "On November 13, 42.7 million passengers were nationally booked
across all classes. Of these, only 1,209 were 1A and 16,999 for 2A. It is a sharp dip from the number of passengers
booked on November 9, when 27,237 passengers had booked tickets in 1A and 69,950 in 2A."[331]

The Railways Ministry and the Railway Board responded swiftly and decided that cancellation and refund of
tickets of value 10,000 and above will not be allowed by any means involving cash. The payment can only be
through cheque/electronic payment. Tickets above 10,000 can be refunded by filing ticket deposit receipt only on
surrendering the original ticket. A copy of the PAN card must be submitted for any cash transaction above
50,000. The railway claimed that since the Railway Board on 10 November imposed a number of restrictions to
book and cancel tickets, the number of people booking 1A and 2A tickets came down.[331][332]

Backdated accounting

The Enforcement Directorate raided several forex establishments making back dated entries.[333] Money
laundering using backdated accounting was carried out by co-operative banks,[334] jewellers,[335] sellers of
iPhones,[336] and several other businesses.[337]

Demonetisation violations

In March 2017, it was alleged that more than 1 lakh crore (in high value deposits of more than 2.5 lakh) were
deposited without any record of PAN.[338]

Income tax raids and cash seizures

The Finance Ministry instructed all revenue intelligence agencies to join the crackdown on forex traders, hawala
operators and jewellers besides tracking movement of demonetised currency notes.[339] It was reported that the
Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the Prime Minister Modi himself were directly coordinating the raids
conducted by the Income Tax, Enforcement Directorate (ED) and other agencies. As of 23 December, PMO
received around 700 calls giving information about black money and it directly forwarded the information to
various law enforcement agencies for further action.[340][341]

Income Tax departments raided various illegal tax-evasive businesses in Delhi, Mumbai, Chandigarh, Ludhiana
and other cities that traded with demonetised currency.[342] The Enforcement Directorate issued several FEMA
notices to forex and gold traders.[339] Large sum of cash in defunct notes were seized in different parts of the
country.[343][344][345][346][347][348] In Chhattisgarh liquid cash worth of 4.4 million (US$69,000) was seized.[349]

As of December 28, official sources said that the Income Tax department detected over 41.72 billion
(US$650 million) of un-disclosed income and seized new notes worth 1.05 billion (US$16 million) as part of its
country-wide operations. The department carried out a total of 983 search, survey and enquiry operations under the
provisions of the Income Tax Act and has issued 5,027 notices to various entities on charges of tax evasion and
hawala-like dealings. The department also seized cash and jewellery worth over 5.49 billion (US$86 million) out
of which the new currency seized (majority of them 2000 notes) is valued at about 1.05 billion (US$16 million).
The department also referred a total of 477 cases to other agencies like the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate
(ED) to probe other financial crimes like money laundering, disproportionate assets and corruption.[350]

In a period of four months from 9 November 2016 to 28 February 2017, CBDT claims to have detected an
undisclosed income of over 93.34 billion (US$1.5 billion) through more than 2,362 search, seizure and survey
actions by Income Tax department.[351]

Seizures of 2000 notes

Huge amounts of cash in the form of new notes were seized all over the country after the demonetisation.[352][353]
As of December 2016, over 4 crore in new banknotes of 2000 were seized from four persons in
Bangalore,[354][355][356] 33 lakh in 2000 notes were recovered from Manish Sharma, an expelled BJP leader in
West Bengal,[357][358] and 1.5 crore was seized in Goa.[359] 900 notes of the new 2000 notes were seized from
a BJP leader in Tamil Nadu.[360] Around 10 crore in new notes were seized in Chennai.[361]

As of 10 December, 242 crore in new notes had been seized.[362] It was noted in the media that while people
were dying in queues to obtain a few thousand rupees in cash, persons with the right connections were able to
amass crores of rupees in new notes, thus rendering the demonetisation exercise futile.[362][363][364]

It was announced by the government that the seized notes will be brought into the mainstream as soon as possible
to ease out the cash problem. Earlier, agencies kept all seized material, including cash seizures, in their strong
rooms as evidence till the case was adjudicated by the courts. The seized money was then deposited into the
Consolidated Fund of India. Sometimes, income tax cases took years to resolve, still all seized material was kept in
safe lockers of the tax department.[365]

See also
Indian black money
Mahatma Gandhi New Series
Income declaration scheme, 2016
Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana

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External links
What the FAQ just happened! All your questions about Rs 5001000 notes answered, India Today, 8
November 2016
FAQ answers and Guidelines on Reserve Bank of India
Ministry of Finance, Government of India
Litvack, L., & Vigne, S. (2017). Demonetisation in India and Emerging Challenges: A Report Delivered to
the Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland and the Government of India by Queens University
Belfast and O.P. Jindal Global University. Belfast: Queen's University Belfast.
http://pure.qub.ac.uk/portal/files/131517443/Final_report.pdf

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