w4 Budgeting Operations

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Budgeting During Operation

Note that in order to ascertain whether or not a project finance formula can be applied to a given initiative,
an advisor builds a financial model. The technical/industrial, legal, and insurance considerations are
compiled, collated, and translated into numbers.
Some are obtained from objective data, and others are computed within a framework of a precise set of
assumptions. The advisors aim is to come up with estimates on cash flows, profits, losses, and the balance
sheet, along with a series of ratios based on the same forecasts. The projected cash flow calculation is vital
for valuing the ability of the initiative to generate enough cash to cover the debt service and to pay sponsors
dividends that are in line with expected returns.

STEP 1: Profit and Loss Sheet - Calculating Interest Expenses


Years 0 1 2 3 4 5
EBITDA 75 75 75 75 75
Depreciation & Amortization (DA) 20 20 20 20 20

EBIT 55 55 55 55 55
Interest Expenses ? ? ? ? ?

STEP 2: Profit and Loss Sheet - Calculating Interest Expenses


Years 0 1 2 3 4 5
Outstanding 100 80 60 40 20 0
Interest Expenes (5%) 5 4 3 2 1
Principal 20 20 20 20 20

Debt Service 25 24 23 22 21
Step 3: Profit and Loss Sheet - Net Income
Years 0 1 2 3 4 5
EBITDA 75 75 75 75 75
Depreciation & Amortization (DA) 20 20 20 20 20
EBIT 55 55 55 55 55
Interest Expenses 5 4 3 2 1
EBT 50 51 52 53 54
Corporate Taxes (50%) 25 25.5 26 26.5 27
Net Income 25 25.5 26 26.5 27

Step 4: Profit and Loss Sheet - Cash Flows for Sponsors


Years 0 1 2 3 4 5
EBITDA 75 75 75 75 75
Taxes 25 25.5 26 26.5 27

Working Capital (assumption) 0 0 0 0 0

Capex (assumption) 0 0 0 0 0

UCFC 50 49.5 49 48.5 48


Debt Service 25 24 23 22 21

Cash flow for sponsors (Dividends) 25 25.5 26 26.5 27


EBITDA margin of 75m per annum

Outstanding debt is spread over 5 years, and it is progressively reduced by the constant repayments (20%)
5% interest fixed rate on debt
Constant Principal Repayments (20% per annum)
The proposed financial structure together with the hypothetical debt repayment plan
give rise to the requirements for debt service for the principal and interest
Corporate Tax Rate = 50% of EBT

Depending on the sign, variations in working capital represent an outlay or a source of


cash. So these changes have to be estimated among the variables that determine
operating cash flow. Nonetheless, we should remember that in numerous project
finance initiatives, the weight of investments in working capital is not particularly
heavy.
During Construction Phase the Capex required for realizing the project is
considerable. Conversely, when operations are under way, Capex drops to zero.

EBITDA - Taxes

By means of the simulations run through the financial model, the advisor/arranger can
come up with a series of debt/equity mixes that in every year of the operating phase
satisfy the condition: Operating cash flow > Debt service

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