Canadian Crude Oil, Natural Gas and

Petroleum Products:
Review of 2009 & Outlook to 2030

May 2011

Petroleum Resources Branch

Energy Sector

S:\gas\REPORTS\2010 - Markets - Oil, Gas, Products - FINAL 2008-09\Current Version\_MASTERv26b_2008-09_MarketsReport_FINAL.doc

Copies of this publication may be obtained free of charge from:
Oil and Gas Policy and Regulatory Affairs Division
Petroleum Resources Branch
Natural Resources Canada
580 Booth Street, 17th Floor
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E4
Phone: (613) 992-0287
TTY Service: (613) 996-4397 (Teletype for the hearing-impaired)
Fax: (613) 995-1913
E-mail: [email protected]

Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2010

ISBN: 978-1-100-16436-6
Catalogue No.: M161-1/2009E-PDF

Aussi offert en franais sous le titre Ptrole brut, gaz naturel et produits ptroliers canadiens: Revue de 2009 et
perspectives jusqu'en 2030
Canadian Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Petroleum Products:
Review of 2009 & Outlook to 2030

Table of Contents

Foreword.................................................................................................................i
Executive Summary...............................................................................................1
Introduction ............................................................................................................5
Review of 2009
Crude Oil Market .................................................................................6
Natural Gas Market ...........................................................................13
Petroleum Products Market...............................................................21
Outlook to 2030 ...................................................................................................28

Appendix A Taxes on Petroleum Products .......................................................31

Acronyms.............................................................................................................32
Major Data Sources .............................................................................................33
Materials may be reproduced for personal and public non-commercial use, in part or in whole and by any
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The information contained herein is for information purposes only. Although Natural Resources Canada
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the accuracy or completeness of any information.
Foreword
Canadian Crude Oil, Natural Gas and in Canada and the US. Our main sources of
Petroleum Products: Review of 2009 & Outlook statistical data were the National Energy Board
to 2030 is an annual working paper prepared by (NEB), the US Energy Information
the Oil and Gas Policy and Regulatory Affairs Administration (EIA), and Statistics Canada.
Division (Oil and Gas Division) of Natural
Resources Canada (NRCan). It provides While every effort is made to provide the most
summaries of crude oil, natural gas and recent data, many sources are continually
petroleum product industry trends in Canada revising their data. As a result, data for recent
and the United States (US). years may differ slightly from what was reported
in our previous report.
The objective of this report is to provide an
understanding of the current state of North Oil and Gas Division Background
American oil, natural gas and petroleum Oil and Gas Policy and Regulatory Affairs
product markets in a format that can be quickly Division is part of the Petroleum Resources
and easily read. Branch, Energy Sector.

Preparing this review and outlook helps the The Oil and Gas Division provides expert
division better inform policy development. It is technical, regulatory, policy and economic
also a valuable tool for soliciting stakeholder information and advice on crude oil, natural gas
feedback on our divisions perceptions of and petroleum product markets, pipelines, and
rapidly evolving energy markets. regulatory issues to the Minister of NRCan and
the federal government.
Structure of the Report
The report is divided into four sections: In addition, the Oil and Gas Division advises the
1) Executive Summary; Minister of NRCan on matters related to
2) Introduction; statutory obligations under the NEB Act and
3) Review of 2009 (reviews the calendar Transportation Safety Board Act. The Division
year 2008 as well as 2009 and, where data is also includes the Pipeline Arbitration
available, year-to-date 2010, to provide an Secretariat.
overview of recent oil, natural gas and
petroleum product market dynamics); and, Energy Sector Website
4) Outlook to 2030 (provides a long-term This report is available online at our website:
view of oil and natural gas market http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/eneene/index-eng.php.
fundamentals).
Other reports are also available at this website,
Timing of This Report including the bi-weekly Fuel Focus report,
This is the first time we have analyzed crude oil, monthly Canadian Natural Gas: Monthly Market
natural gas and petroleum products in a single Update, and the Review of Issues Affecting the
report. This was partly done because the former Price of Crude Oil.
Oil Division and Natural Gas Division were
reorganized in May 2009 to form the new Oil Feedback
and Gas Division. However, this integrated We appreciate your comments, suggestions,
structure also allows a better understanding of and questions. Questions and comments can
the differences between the three markets, and be directed to Dan Cowan at: (613) 996-5411 or
how the three markets influence one another. [email protected].

Sources
Various sources were used in preparing this
report, including private consultants, industry
associations, and federal government agencies

i
Executive Summary

The Global Recession

Years of sustained economic growth
came to a sudden end in fall 2008 when
Canadian 2008 & 2009 Numbers at a Glance
the US-lead financial crisis triggered the
worst economic slowdown since the Crude Oil Natural Gas
Great Depression of the 1930s. The Year 2008 2009 2008 2009
effects of the crisis were far reaching and Production -1% -1% -4% -7%
no country was left unscathed. The Domestic
-3% -5% +0.7% -1%
Canadian economy shrank 2.6% in 2009, Demand
the most since 1982. Prices $103.5/bbl $66.77/bbl $7.33/MMBTU $3.86/MMBTU
Imports -2% -5% +21% +25%
Energy supply and demand are pillars of Exports +1% +1% -4% -11%
modern economies. It follows that the * Prices: $CAD West Edmonton Par for Oil, AECO for natural gas
global economic recession had real and
tangible impacts on Canadas oil and gas industries, which are the focus of this report. Many of the key
developments discussed in this section reflect the picture of a broader, economy wide recession.
The global recession started to affect industrial demand for natural gas and petroleum products towards
the end of 2008, however this is masked by the annual data. The recessions full effect was more
pronounced in 2009, when industrial demand for natural gas plummeted 8.4% in the US. Canadian
industrial demand proved to be much more resilient and only fell by 1%.

Oil and Gas Price Review

The price of Canadian crude oil is set in a global oil market. Similarly, Canadian petroleum product
prices reflect international crude oil prices and other factors such as seasonal demand and inventory
levels. However, natural gas prices are more continental in nature, and are affected by markets in
Canada and the US.
Crude Oil and natural gas prices peaked in July 2008 at $US 133 per barrel and over $US 13/MMBtu
respectively. Prior to the recession of late 2008, crude oil prices were pushed higher and higher, by
growing concerns over supplies, OPEC production cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties in some key
producing regions1. Growing demand, particularly from Non-OPEC Asian countries like China, pushed
oil prices higher, as did the devaluation of the US dollar against some key currencies, such as the Euro.
Besides those fundamental factors, a major increase in large institutional investment (e.g. banks,
hedge funds and insurance companies) and speculators is likely to have supported the spike in prices.
The soaring oil price pushed refined petroleum products and natural gas prices ever higher as well.
Of note, the price of crude oil is the largest component in the price of refined products, such as
gasoline, and product prices usually rise with the increase in the oil price. Natural gas is a product
which can sometimes be substituted for petroleum products such as heavy fuel oil, and its price is
somewhat influenced by the price of crude oil.
Within a year of their summer/fall 2008 peaks, both crude oil and natural gas lost 80% of their value on
the market. Oil bottomed out at $30 per barrel in late December 2008 and natural gas averaged only
$US 2.84 in September 2009.
Plummeting energy prices were the result of:
The US financial crisis;
The fall in equity markets; and
Lower industrial production and lower energy demand.

1
For additional detail, see our report, Review of Issues Affecting the Price of Crude Oil, October 2010.
1
Producer export revenues and cash flow declined, as did drilling rates and investments in the oil and
gas industry.
In 2009, Canadian oil and gas drilling rates declined by half from 2008 levels, and global investment in
the petroleum industry declined 19% in this same period.
As economies emerged from the recession, the price of crude oil clawed its way back and settled in the
$US 70-80 range in the last quarter of 2009. Oil prices rose with the expectation that the global
economic recovery would support increased oil demand. To the end of 2010, crude oil prices have
remained fairly stable, in the $80-90 range.

Natural Gas
Natural gas prices have recovered to a much lesser extent. Improvements in horizontal drilling
technology and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing are helping to unlock enormous natural gas reservoirs
across North America. Shale gas has emerged as the new low-cost supply option and it is being
characterized as a game-changer. Despite declining production in each of the last three years, the
Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) is no longer thought to be in permanent decline. Vast
shale resources, particularly in Northeastern British Columbia, offer the possibility of increased
domestic production over the long term.
Shale gas development is well established in the US and is growing quickly in Canada. Shale gas is
providing a renewed optimism that North America now has an enormous and secure source of natural
gas for decades to come. The burgeoning shale gas development comes on the heels of tremendous
investments in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import terminals.
Abundant shale gas, and abundant LNG import and regassification capacity, may act as a ceiling for
natural gas prices and contribute to a lasting decoupling of oil and gas prices. Relatively low natural gas
prices are fuelling efforts to expand natural gass market share, including in new applications such as
transportation.
Natural Gas Paradigm Shift
For years industry spoke of the natural gas drilling and production treadmill, whereby more and more
drilling was required to sustain production. During 2001-2006, North American natural gas production
stagnated and prices spiked up and down as demand changed, leading us to describe this as a supply
limited market. Unconventional production is changing the story. Nowhere is this more clear than in the
US in 2009, when natural gas drilling collapsed (down 44%) and yet overall production grew by 3%.
The strength in natural gas production is due to the shift towards horizontal wells targeting shale gas,
which are typically much more productive than traditional vertical gas wells targeting conventional
production. Similar trends could emerge in Canada as unconventional gas development grows in the
future. Clearly the North American natural gas market is no longer supply limited, but is in a period of
relative abundance.

Crude Oil
The shift towards unconventional production also holds on the oil side. New technology, successfully
employed in shale gas developments (including horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracture stimulation)
has successfully been employed in the Bakken oil formation in Saskatchewan, and more recently in the
Pembina oil field in Alberta. In addition, its now clear that Canadas mature oil fields could be
revitalized, using unconventional production techniques.
Oil Sands
By early 2009, with the recession driving crude oil prices down, $100 billion in oil sands projects were
on hold. However, oil prices subsequently recovered following the recession, and oilsands investments
and developments are now once again back on track for rapid growth. Within the last year, rising
petroleum prices have prompted the re-start of a variety of oil sands mining and in-situ projects

2
including: Suncor Energy's Firebag expansion, Imperial Oils Kearl project, Cenovuss Narrows Lake
project, Devon Energy's Jackfish expansion, and ConocoPhillips and Totals Surmont project.
By 2030, oilsands production is expected to account for up to 90% of Canadian production. The shift
towards unconventional production has long been anticipated as 97% of Canadas proved oil reserves
are in the form of oil sands. New processes and improvements in efficiencies are also helping to curb
the expected demand for natural gas per barrel of oilsands produced.
Refined Petroleum Products
Overall, demand for refined products in Canada slowed down in 2008 along with the worldwide
economic slowdown, and continued to decline in 2009. In fact, demand in 2009 was 6% lower than in
2008 at 96.5 billion litres, the lowest since 2002.
In 2009 Canadians consumed 42.3 billion litres of gasoline, an increase of 0.6 billion litres over 2008, a
year when gasoline consumption had dropped by 0.5 billion litres.
Domestic sales of diesel fuel in 2009 were 26.0 billion litres, 8% lower than the year before. In 2007
and 2008 diesel demand had increased, a reflection of the strong growth in the Canadian economy and
a growing proportion of diesel-powered vehicles in the fleet.
Demand for heating oil, or light fuel oil, totalled 3.4 billion litres in 2009, 0.4 billion litres or 10% below
2008. This mainly reflects the loss of share to natural gas and electricity in the space heating markets
of Ontario and Quebec.
Canadian refinery capacity has increased slightly over the last decade despite the closure of the
Petro-Canada refinery in Ontario 2005. The refinery utilization rates have been dropping steadily since
2004, declining more significantly in 2009 because of lower demand for oil products, poor refining
economics stemming from the economic downturn, and unscheduled refinery shut-downs.
Canadian gasoline prices in 2009 and 2010 were less volatile than in 2008, averaging 95 cents a litre in
2009 and $1.04 in 2010, down from the $1.14 registered in 2008. Diesel fuel prices averaged 90 cents
per litre in 2009 and $1.01 in 2010, compared to $1.25 per litre in 2008.

Resource Size and Adequacy

Unconventional resources are also helping to stem concerns about Canadas long term ability to satisfy
its energy needs. Canadas proved oil reserves are now the third largest in the world at 174.2 billion
barrels (Bbl). On account of Albertas oil sands, Canada now has at least 175 years of remaining crude
oil reserves, at current production rates.
New estimates for natural gas resources are being developed to account for shale gas. North America
is now thought to have over 100 years of natural gas supply at current production rates, largely on
account of shale gas. Its clear that Canada has abundant oil and natural gas for long-term energy
needs.

Outlook to 2030
Crude Oil
The crude oil price outlook to 2030 (from expert consultants and energy forecasters) shows a tendency
towards rising prices. However, there is no consensus, which is not surprising given the variety of
factors which can influence the price of oil.
A survey of Canadian crude oil production forecasts shows considerable variability particularly in the
long-run. However, all of the forecasts show a clear shift towards the oil sands and a decline in
Canadas conventional oil production. All of the forecasters expect that the decline in conventional oil
production will be more than offset by rising oil sands production.
Overall, Canadas oil sands production could more than triple by 2030. Canada has a large and
growing net surplus of crude oil. The domestic market for oil sands production could grow with rising
3
production. Surplus Canadian crude oil production will help meet the demands for oil in the US market,
and could possibly be exported to a new market in Asia.
Natural Gas
A survey of expert consultants and energy forecasters show that North American natural gas demand is
widely anticipated to increase by about 1% per year through to 2030. Canadian natural gas production
is expected to continue a slow decline or remain stagnant until 2013 or 2014, after which production
begins to rise slowly, due to unconventional gas development. Combined with Canadian natural gas
demand growth, this implies a continued drop in Canadian natural gas exports to the US. The expected
impact will be continuing declining natural gas exports to the US.
Natural gas prices are inherently hard to predict, even more so at a time when enormous supplies are
on the verge of hitting the market. However, according to the forecasters surveyed, natural gas prices
will gradually increase over the Outlook period to 2030. Natural gas is expected to continue trading at a
considerable discount to crude oil on an energy content basis throughout the forecast period.
Forecasters expect crude oil and natural gas prices to remain decoupled on an energy-content basis
and for the price differential to widen somewhat.

4
Introduction

Importance of the Oil and Gas Industry Petroleum companies make up 20 to 30%
to the Canadian Economy of the value of the Toronto Stock Exchange and
directly account for about 5% of Canadas GDP.
Oil and natural gas are vital sources of energy
for the world and will likely remain so for many $54 billion in Canadian oil and natural gas
years to come. The International Energy capital investment in 20083.
Agency (IEA) projects that oil and natural gas
In 2009, Canadas petroleum exports
will provide 50% of the worlds energy mix in
(crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas)
2035.
accounted for 21% of all Canadas exports. Oil
Oil is a key product for the worlds agriculture and natural gas exports are a key component of
industry. "The energy in one barrel of oil," notes Canadas merchandise trade surplus with the
the New Scientist (June 28/08), "is equivalent to outside world. This surplus benefits all
that of five labourers working non-stop for a Canadians4.
year." Oil is truly a key fuel which has helped
Millions of Canadians are affected by the
the worlds civilization advance in the 20th and
petroleum industry through employment, or
21st century.
ownership in shares of companies, Registered
In North America, two-thirds of oil is used in the Retirement Savings Plans and mutual funds.
transportation sector. Canada is geographically
The high value of the Canadian dollar is
vast and oil gives us gasoline, diesel, and jet
fuel to get around. From oil we get thousands of largely due to the value of oil and gas produced
key products, from petrochemicals to building in Canada.
materials to plastics. Oil and natural gas are The oil and gas industry is a key source of
both used for power generation and as a heat revenue for federal and provincial governments.
source. In 2008, the Canadian oil and gas industry paid
Like oil, natural gas is a crucially important $26 billion in taxes and royalties to
energy source for consumers and business. governments5. Over the next 25 years, the
Natural gas is used in the production of federal government could receive $409 billion in
fertilizers and so plays a key role in food tax revenue from the oil and gas industry, while
production. In Canada, natural gas is also used provinces could take in an additional $282
to extract oil from the oil sands. billion6.
Annual Revenue for Major Canadian Industries
The oil and natural gas industries are major $ Billions
110
drivers of Canadas economy: 100
90
An ARC Financial report estimates that
80
upstream oil and gas accounts for $100 billion 70
of revenue annually in Canada, considerably 60
more than the next largest product group 50

(autos) at $65 billion. 40

30
Over the next 25 years, Canadian Energy 20

Research Institute (CERI) expects the 10

Canadian oil and gas industry to sustain almost 0

Upstream Oil Auto Forestry and Wheat and Uranium

25 million person years of employment, or and Gas Manufacturing Logging Barley

almost one million jobs each year2, and have a Source: ARC Financial

$3.6 trillion ($2008) impact on the Canadian

Economy.
3
CAPP Website
4
Statistics Canada (2008) CANSIM Table 228-0003
2 5
There are not 1 million people working directly in oil CAPP Website
6
and gas in Canada. The figure includes indirect jobs such CERI report on the Economic Impact of the Petroleum
as services driven by oil and gas jobs. Industry in Canada, July 2009.
5
Review of 2009 Crude Oil Market
Market Structure now some signs that the global economic
recovery has begun. Like other countries,
Canada is the 6th largest oil producer in the Canadian crude oil demand could recover
world, and a price taker in a global oil market. somewhat with the global economic recovery.
Canadian crude oil is sold both domestically
and in the US market at the world price. Despite Canada consumes far less crude oil than it
the fact that Canada is a major net exporter of produces, and this situation is likely to continue
crude oil, refineries in Atlantic Canada and into the foreseeable future. In 2009, Canada
central Canada continue to import crude from recorded a huge net surplus of more than
producers overseas. This occurs because of 840 thousand barrels per day (kb/d). Nearly all
the low cost of moving crude oil by ship, and crude oil exported from Canada was to the US
the relatively high cost of pipelining crude oil market.
across Canada. Some of the crude imported is
re-exported to the US in the form of refined Crude Oil Production
petroleum products.
The figure below shows total Canadian crude
oil production for the 1995 to 2009 period.
Crude Oil Demand
Canadian oil production is growing quickly.
Refineries transform crude oil into refined Between 1995 and 2009 Canadian crude oil
products which are consumed by industry and production grew from 1.97 mb/d to 2.72 mb/d.
the public. The figure below shows the total All of the increase in Canadas oil production
amount of crude oil consumed by refineries came from the oil sands, where production rose
(both imports and domestic crude oil) to meet from 430 kb/d in 1995 to 1.34 mb/d in 2009. For
the demand for refined products in Canada. 2009, despite a significant drop in the price of
crude, and a large drop in conventional oil
As seen in the figure below, between 2000 and drilling, Canadian crude oil production of 2.72
2009, Canadian demand for crude oil ranged mb/d was very close to its output rate of 2008
from 1.7 to 1.85 million barrels per day (mb/d). (2.74 mb/d). In fact Canadas crude oil
Canadian demand for crude oil peaked in 2007, production fell by less than one percent. The
at 1.85 mb/d. growth in oil sands output offset almost all of
In 2008 and 2009, Canadian demand for crude the loss in conventional crude oil production.
oil slowed down, reflecting the impact of the
global economic slowdown. However, there are

Canadian Crude Oil Demand Canadian Crude Oil

Total Crude Oil Consumed (by Production
Refineries) to meet Canadian Demand 2,800
2,000
Thousand Barrels Per Day

Thousand Barrels Per Day

1,750 2,400
1,500 2,000
1,250 Domestic Oil
1,600
1,000
1,200
750
Oil Sands Synthetic
500 Imports 800 Oil Sands Bitum en
250 Pentanes & Condensates
400 Conventional Heavy
0 Conventional Light & Medium
0
01
00

02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

19 5

19 7

20 0

20 2
20 3

20 5

20 8
96

19 8
20 9
01

04

20 6
20 7
09
9

0
9
9
9

0
0
0
19

20
19

20

Source: Statistics Canada, Energy Statistics Handbook Source: Statistics Canada

6
 Canadian Crude Production by Province and Territory
(kb/d)
Rest of
Domestic B.C. Alberta Sask. Manitoba East Coast Canada
Canada
Production
08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09
Heavy 156 145 309 289 465 434
Light/Medium 23 22 347 316 130 134 23 26 342 268 18 17 883 782
Condensates 4 4 15 14 11 8 31 27
Pentanes 6 7 141 132 1 1 2 2 149 142
Bitumen 549 575 549 575
Synthetic 653 764 653 764
Total Production 33 33 1,861 1,946 440 424 23 26 353 276 20 19 2,731 2,724
Percentage 1 1 68 71 16 16 1 1 13 10 1 1 100% 100%
Source: Statistics Canada, Energy Statistics Handbook. Figures are rounded.

The table above shows Canadian crude oil Oil Wells Drilled
production by province and territory. Canadian
crude oil production is spread out across The total number of oil wells drilled in Canada
Canada; however, most Canadian production is in 2009 was lower than in previous years. In
centred in the Western Canadian Sedimentary 2009, 3,197 oil wells were completed compared
Basin. In 2009, Alberta dominated Canadian to 6,223 in 2008, which translates into a 49%
crude oil output with 71% of the nations total. drop. Note that wells drilled is an imperfect
The Western Canadian provinces of Alberta, measure of unconventional oil development, as
British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba oil sands production is extracted through in situ
accounted for 89% of production. processes (which requires drilling), but also by
Newfoundland and Labrador offshore mining (which does not involve drilling). The
production made up almost 10% of total graph below illustrates that in 2009, oil wells
Canadian output. Finally, Ontario, Nova Scotia drilled were the lowest of the decade. Lower
and the Northwest Territories production make commodity prices throughout the first half of
up the remaining 1% of production. 2009 were a major factor contributing to the
lower oil well count.
Within Canada, there is a fairly high degree of
concentration of oil production within a small In 2009, despite the huge drop in conventional
number of producers. In 2009, the top 10 drilling, Canadian crude oil production remained
Canadian oil producers controlled 65% of total virtually unchanged from its 2008 level because
Canadian oil production. The August 2009 increased oil sands production made up for a
merger between Suncor Energy and Petro- loss of conventional production.
Canada created Canadas largest energy
company, with crude oil production at 393
thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in 2009. Annual Canadian Oil Wells
Drilled and Production
2009 Top 10 Canadian Oil Producers
7
Rank Company kb/d Percent 1,000
Thousands of Wells drilled

6
Production (Million Barrels)

1 Suncor Energy* 393.5 14.4%

5 800
2 Canadian Natural* 284.8 10.5%
3 Imperial Oil* 244.0 9.0% 4 600
4 Husky Energy* 205.1 7.5%
3
5 Shell Canada 119.0 4.4% 400
6 Encana*1 115.8 4.3% 2
7 Conoco Phillips 113.0 4.1% 200
1
8 Penn West* 104.0 3.8%
0 0
Canadian Oil
9 103.1 3.8%
00

02

04

06

08
01

03

05

07

09

Sands Trust*
20

20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

10 Devon Canada 94.6 3.5%

Total Canada production 2,724 100% Production Wells Drilled
Source: Oilweek Magazine, July 2010. * denotes gross production Source: Statistics Canada and Nick le's Oil Bulletin
1
Encana split into two energy companies on December 1, 2010. 7
Canadas Oil Resources and Reserves
Worlds Top Proved Oil Reserves
Oil sands are a naturally occurring mixture of
sand or clay, water and bitumen7. Canadas oil 300
262.6 Crude Oil Reserves
sands are found in three main areas:
Athabasca, Peace River and Cold Lake. 250 Canada Oil Sands and Venezuela
Canadas oil sands are extracted using both 211.2 Extra Heavy Oil Reserves
mining and in situ drilling techniques. Around 200

Billion Barrels
174.2
20% of Canadas oil sands reserves are close
enough to the surface (up to 75 metres) to be 150 137.6
mined. The remaining oil sands reserves are 115.0
104.0 97.8
too deep to be mined (more than 75 metres)
100
and in-situ drilling techniques are required to
extract the oil. In situ techniques use drilling
technology to inject steam into a deposit to heat 50
the oil sand thus lowering the viscosity of the
bitumen. The hot bitumen migrates towards the 0
wells, bringing the oil to the surface, while the

q
n
da
ela

it
ia

E
Ira

Ira

wa

UA
rab
sand is left in place.

na
zu

Ku
Ca
iA

ne
Canadas oil sands are still in their early stages

ud

Ve
Sa
of development. Since 1967, only seven billion
Source: Oil and Gas Journal, December 6, 2010; CAPP
barrels (bbl) of crude oil has been extracted
from the oil sands. In 2009, 544 million barrels the countries are Organization of Petroleum
of bitumen were extracted from the oil sands Exporting Countries (OPEC) members (Canada
(approximately 1.5 mb/d). In 2009, all crude is not). Today, OPEC controls 72% of the
bitumen produced from mining, as well as a worlds oil reserves, and produces about 40%
small portion (about 12%) of in situ production of the worlds oil production.
was upgraded in Alberta, yielding 279 million
barrels of synthetic oil. Canada accounts for about 12% of the worlds
proved oil reserves, and 97% of Canadian
In Canada, the amount of discovered in-place reserves are in the form of oil sands. Based on
(not all in-place amounts are economically the current rate of production, Canada has at
recoverable) bitumen resources (oil sands) is least 175 years of crude oil reserves.
estimated at 1.8 trillion barrels. This resource is
so vast it exceeds the total volume of world oil In the future, with technological improvements,
production to date. For comparison, the 150 the volume of Canadas proved oil sands
year cumulative total of world oil production-to- reserves could grow substantially. The province
date is approximately 1 trillion barrels. of Alberta estimates that proved oil sands
reserves, currently estimated at 169.9 bbl,
Proved oil reserves are economically could grow to 315 bbl as technology improves.
recoverable with a high degree of certainty This does not include oil sands that could one
using current technology. Ten percent of day be extracted from Saskatchewan.
Canadas discovered bitumen resources are
now considered to be proved. Canadas proved Unlike the oil sands, Canadas conventional oil
oil sands reserves are estimated at 169.9 bbl. reserves are spread across Canadas provinces
and territories. Canadas conventional proved
As shown in the figure above, Canadas proved oil reserves are currently estimated at 4.3 bbl.
oil reserves are the third largest in the world at The table on the next page shows the location
174.2 bbl. Only Saudi Arabia, with 262.6 bbl of of Canadas proved conventional oil reserves
oil, and Venezuela with 211.2 bbl have a larger by province and territory. Alberta holds around
volume of proved oil reserves. The seven 35% of Canadas conventional oil reserves and
countries shown collectively represent about the Western Canadian provinces of Alberta,
75% of the worlds proved oil reserves. Six of British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba
collectively account for about 61% of Canadas
7 conventional oil reserves.
The extremely viscous oil contained in oilsands deposits
is commonly referred to as bitumen. It is a very heavy oil.
8
 Monthly Canadian crude oil inventories levels
Canadian Conventional Crude Oil Reserves ranged from just under 18,518 thousand barrels
to almost 23,827 thousand barrels. Seasonal
Million variations in crude oil inventory levels are also
Location Percent
barrels
visible. The winter months show spikes in
British Columbia 113 2.6% inventories for refineries to produce heating oil.
Alberta 1,495 34.6% In the January 2007 to December 2009 period,
Saskatchewan 959 22.2% crude oil inventories at refineries varied
Manitoba 53 1.2% between 11 and 14 days of forward supplies.
Ontario 10 0.2% Canadian refineries constantly replenish their
Mainland Territories 12 0.3% supplies of crude oil through pipelines and
Mackenzie Beaufort 339 7.8% crude oil tankers to ensure that adequate
East Coast Offshore 1,344 31.1% supplies are maintained for Canadians.
Refineries in Atlantic Canada have the highest
Total 4,325 100.0%
crude oil inventories in terms of forward supply
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers levels as they rely on imported crude almost
exclusively.
The East Coast offshore areas represent about
31% of conventional oil reserves. Canadas Crude Oil Prices
remaining proved conventional oil reserves are West Texas Intermediate Crude oil (WTI) is a
located in Ontario, the Mackenzie/Beaufort benchmark crude oil for the North American
Area and the Mainland Territories. market, and Edmonton Par and Western
Canadian Select (WCS) are benchmarks crude
Crude Oil Inventories oils for the Canadian market. Both Edmonton
Crude oil is mainly stored at refineries and near Par and WTI are high-quality low sulphur crude
major pipelines. The graph at the top right oils with API gravity levels of around 40. In
shows the monthly Canadian crude oil inventory contrast, WCS is a heavy crude oil with an API
levels at the Canadian refineries over the gravity level of 20.5.
January 2007 to December 2009 period. Oil sands crude oil does not flow naturally in
pipelines because it is too dense. A diluent is
Crude Oil Inventory Levels normally blended with the oil sands bitumen to
in Canada allow it to flow in pipelines. For the purpose of
meeting pipeline viscosity and density
30,000 30
specifications, oil sands bitumen is blended
with either synthetic crude oil (synbit) and/or
25,000 25 condensate (dilbit).
WCS is a dilsynbit (diluent synthetic
Number of days covered

20,000 20
bitumen) blend with an API gravity level of
Thousand barrels

20.5. WCS has satisfied the criteria to become

Crude closing inventory a benchmark with production volumes of
15,000 15 around 250,000 barrels per day and may grow
from this number, whereas WTI is declining
from its current volume of 300,000 - 400,000
10,000 10 barrels per day.
Number of days of
forward supplies covered The graph on the next page shows monthly
5,000 5 WTI, Edmonton Par and WCS crude oil prices
for the January 2005 to December 2010. WTI
and Edmonton Par crude oils are sold at prices
0 0
in close proximity to each other as these crude
Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09
Jan-07

Jul-07
Sep-07

Jan-08

Jul-08
Sep-08

Jan-09

Jul-09
Sep-09
May-07

May-08

May-09
Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

oils are of similar quality.

Source: Statistics Canada Since WCS is a heavy sour grade, it requires

9
 Crude Oil Prices

$160
Oi l prices rise with
$140 OPEC prod ucti on
cuts, ge opoli ti cal Oil price s coll apse
con ce rns a nd th e wi th the rece ssi on
$120 Israe l
fall in the US doll ar and a fa ll in de ma nd
L eban on War
$100
Hu rricane
Ka tri na
$80
$US/Barrel

$60

$40
Oi l prices increa se
with an in crease in oil
$20 d emand wi th the
e conomic recovery
$0
07

08
6
05

09
06

07

08
05

09

10
0
05

06

07

08

09

10
.0

n.1
n.

n.

n.

n.
y.
y.

y.

y.

y.

y.
p.

p.

p.
p.

p.

p.
n

Ja
Ja

Ja
Ja

Ja
Ma

Ma

Ma

Ma
Ma

Ma
Ja

Se
Se

Se

Se

Se

Se
WCS Oi l Price WTI Oi l Price Edmonton Par

Sour ce : E ner gy Infor ma ti on Ad ministrati on and NR Can

more time and energy to refine it. As a result, Energy's Jackfish expansion, and
WCS is sold at a discount to WTI. Between ConocoPhillips and Totals Surmont project.
2006 and 2008, the average annual differential
between WTI and WCS was between $20 and Volatile Crude Oil Prices
$24 per barrel. Since the fall of 2008, the price As seen in the graph, the January 2007 to
differential between WTI and WCS narrowed September 2010 period was characterized by
with growing demand for heavier Canadian high oil price volatility (particularly in 07/08).
crude oil from US refineries. By 2009, the price WTI crude oil rose from a monthly average of
differential between WCS and WTI was only $US 54.50 per barrel in January 2007 to over
$9.67 per barrel. $US 133 per barrel by June of 2008.
The higher price for heavier crude oils has A number of traditional factors contributed to
improved the economics of developments such the escalation in the price of crude oil such as:
as the oil sands. By early 2009, with the
OPEC production cuts;
recession driving crude oil prices down, $100
High oil demand (particularly China);
billion in oil sands projects were on hold.
However, with the recovery in oil prices, Reduced spare capacity and inventory
oilsands projects are now once again back on levels;
track for rapid growth. Within the last year, Oil price subsidies; and,
rising petroleum prices have prompted the re- Geopolitical concerns.
start of a variety of oil sands mining and in-situ New emerging factors also had an effect:
projects including: Suncor Energy's Firebag The declining value of the US dollar;
expansion, Imperial Oils Kearl project, The emergence of oil as a new
Cenovus Narrows Lake project, Devon investment class; and,

10
 Increased flows of money into the crude Canadian Crude Oil Imports by Country
oil futures market (banks, hedge funds, and (kb/d)
insurance companies). Rank Country 2008 2009

The major drop in the price of oil that was 1 Algeria 196 149
experienced in the fall of 2008 was mainly a 2 Norway 143 122
response to a drop in the demand for oil in the 3 United Kingdom 120 93
face of the recession and the financial crisis. 4 Saudi Arabia 66 71
The daily price of oil fell to a low of US$30 per
5 Angola 82 43
barrel in December 2008. Oil prices rebounded,
6 Nigeria 29 34
in the summer and fall of 2009, with the
expectation of higher crude oil demand with the 7 Venezuela 25 33
economic recovery. By the end of 2009, oil 8 Iraq 60 26
prices were trading at around US$75 per barrel, 9 Mexico 21 22
and through November 2010, have remained in 10 Russia 26 18
the $80 per barrel range. In 2009, the price of All others 78 196
crude oil averaged 62% of the price in 2008.
Total Canadian Imports 846 807
The Oil and Gas Division prepared an in depth
Source: Statistics Canada Energy Statistics Handbook
report on the factors causing high oil price
volatility. The crude oil issues report can now 2008. In 2009, Canadian crude oil exports were
be seen on Natural Resources Canadas slightly higher at 1.88 mb/d.
reports and publications website8.
The table below also compares exports to the
Crude Oil Imports, Exports and Trade US with exports to other countries, showing that
Revenues more than 99% of total Canadian crude oil
exports are destined for the US market. More
For geographic and economic reasons, oil is than three quarters of Canadas crude oil
exported from the west and the Atlantic offshore exports go to the US Mid-West region and US
and imported into eastern and central Canada. Rocky Mountain regions.
On balance, Canada is a large and growing net
oil exporter. Domestic sources supply all of the Canadian Crude Oil Exports by Destination
crude oil used in Western Canada and close to (kb/d)
three quarters of Ontarios crude oil demand.
Export Area 2008 2009
Most crude oil demand in Quebec (365 kb/d in
2009) and the Atlantic provinces (372 kb/d in US East Coast 249 225
2009) is met with imports. US Mid-West 1,118 1,158

The table at the top right shows Canadian oil US Gulf Coast 9 14
imports by source for 2008 and 2009. In 2008, US Rocky Mountain Region 318 313
Canada imported 846 kb/d of crude oil. With the US West Coast 153 158
recession, imports fell by 5% to 807 kb/d in Total Exports to US 1,846 1,868
2009. In 2009, 360 kb/d or 45% of Canadas Exports to other Countries 8 14
crude oil imports came from OPEC member
Total Exports 1,856 1,882
countries. Twenty-seven percent of Canadas
crude oil imports came from the North Sea, and Source: Statistics Canada Energy Statistics Handbook
other regions accounted for the remaining 28%
of imports.
The table at right compares Canadas crude oil In 2009, Canadian export revenues from crude
exports across different US Petroleum oil of $43 billion were 36% lower than its 2008
Administration for Defence Districts (PADD). level ($67 billion). However, unlike with natural
Canada exported 1.86 mb/d of crude oil in gas, this reduction in export revenues was not
coupled with a reduction in export volumes. In
2009, at 687 million barrels per year, crude oil
8
The report titled Review of Issues Affecting the Price of Crude export volumes were up 1% from its 2008 level
Oil can be downloaded at:
http://nrcan.gc.ca/eneene/sources/crubru/pcopdp/index-eng.php
(679 million barrels).
11
 Crude Oil Exports and Imports dollar. It is for this reason that the Canadian
2008 2009 Change
dollar is now commonly described as a petro
Exports (Gross)
dollar.
Volume (million barrels) 679 687 +1% Canadas refineries import light sweet (low
Avg. Export Price (C$/B) $99.25 $66.35 -33% sulphur) crude oil which sells at a premium
Export Revenue (billion) $67.4 $42.8 -36% compared to the heavier crude oils which
Imports (Gross) Canada exports to the United States. This
Volume (million barrels) 310 295 -5% explains the difference between the average
Avg. Import Price (C$/B) $109.65 $72.05 -34% import price for crude oil and the average
Import Expense (billion) $34.0 $21.2 -38% export price for Canadian crude oil.
Net Exports
Volume (million barrels) 369 392 +6% The figure above highlights both the monthly
Net Export Revenue volatility of Canadian imports, as well as their
$33.4 $21.6 -35%
(billion) seasonal pattern. Canadian crude oil imports
Source: Statistics Canada, Energy Statistics Handbook typically increase to meet the peak demand for
heating fuel during the winter months and
gasoline demand during the peak summer
The lower revenue figures are therefore not a
driving season. In recent years, the overall
reflection of less product being exported, but of
demand for crude oil imports in Eastern Canada
the lower price of Canadian crude oil in 2009
has been declining in response to increased
compared with 2008. In 2009, the average
use of domestic crude oil, the closure of the
Canadian crude oil export price, at $66.35
Petro-Canada refinery in Ontario, lower
Cdn/bl, was one third lower compared to the
utilization rates and the effects of the
average of $99.25 Cdn/bl in 2008. The lower
2008/2009 recession.
price for Canadas commodity exports had a
major impact on Canadas annual trade balance
In 2009, it fell into deficit, for the first time
since 1975. Lower prices for commodities led to
Canadian Monthly Crude Oil
trade deficits in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2010. Imports
36
The drop in the value of crude oil also had a
Million Barrels / Month

major impact on the Canadian dollar, which fell

32
to 81 cents against the US dollar in December
2008. As crude oil prices recovered in 2009, the
Canadian dollar approached par with the US 28

24
Annual Canadian Crude Oil
Export Revenues and Volumes
20
70 700
Exports
C$ Billions

Million Barrels

60 Export Revenues 650 16

600
00

02

04

05

07

09
01

03

06

08

50
20

20

20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

550
40 Source: Statistics Canada
500
30
450
20
400
10 350
0 300
02

05

07
08
00
01

06

09
03
04
20

20

20
20
20
20

20
20

20

20

Source: Statistics Canada

12
Review of 2009 Natural Gas Market
Market Structure
The Canadian natural gas market is part of a North American Natural Gas Demand
continental market, and is affected by market 2008 2009
Y/Y Y/Y
conditions in both Canada and the US. In this Bcf Chg. Bcf Chg.
market, natural gas flows seamlessly across
US Residential 4,872 3.2% 4,739 -2.7%
borders via extensive pipeline networks
US Commercial 3,136 4.1% 3,095 -1.3%
connecting supply basins to demand centers.
US Industrial 6,650 0.0% 6,090 -8.4%
Regional prices, reflecting natural gas pipeline
US Electric 6,668 -2.5% 6,888 3.3%
transportation costs, are established within this
US Other (1) 1,900 1.5% 1,928 1.5%
market. Unlike crude oil, there is no global price
for natural gas. Total US Demand 23,227 0.6% 22,739 -2.1%
US LNG Exports 39 -19% 33 -15%
US Exports to
Natural Gas Demand Mexico 365 25% 338 -7%
Total North American demand for natural gas in Total US Dispn 23,631 0.8% 23,111 -2.2%
2009 was about 25.5 Tcf (trillion cubic feet) or Cda. Residential 627 1.5% 626 -0.2%
about 70 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day). Cda. Commercial 457 2.5% 468 2.4%
Cda. Ind. & Power
Canadian natural gas demand represents about Gen. 1,549 1.8% 1,534 -1.0%
11% of the combined Canada-US demand.
Cda. Other (2) 136 -16.6% 115 -15.4%
Core demand includes natural gas used for Total Canadian
space heating in the residential and commercial Gas Sales 2,719 0.7% 2,743 -0.9%
sectors, while non-core demand includes the Total N.A.
industrial and power generation sectors. The Demand 25,996 0.6% 25,482 -2.0%
graph below shows the components of 2009 Total N.A.
Disposition 26,400 0.8% 25,854 -2.1%
North American natural gas demand.
Sources: Statistics Canada, EIA
Notes: (1) US Other includes pipeline and distribution use, lease and
The table above summarizes North American plant fuel, and vehicle use. (2) Canadian other consists mainly of
natural gas demand for 2008 and 2009. US pipeline compressor fuel.
demand fell in 2009, by 2.1%, largely as a
result of the economic downturn. Canadian Demand for natural gas in the industrial sector
demand was also down, albeit by less than 1%. is largely derived demand, e.g. demand that
Overall, total North American demand was arises due to the demand for another good or
down 2% in 2009. service.
As illustrated in the figure on the following page,
expanding oil sands operations continue to
North American Natural Gas increase their demand for natural gas.
Demand Purchased gas by the oil sands is now 432
US Other - Bcf/year or 1 Bcf/d. Albertas Energy Resources
7% Conservation Board (ERCB) expects this
US Core - demand to double again by 2020. Low natural
31% Core - 4% gas prices continue to make natural gas an
economical fuel to use in oil sands operations.
Canada Oil sands operations consume more than just
Non-Core -
11% purchased gas. Oil sands upgrading operations
US Non 6%
also produce their own natural gas that is used
Core - on site. The in situ operations also produce
51% Other - solution gas from bitumen wells. Therefore,
1% total gas consumed in this industry is the sum
of purchased gas, process gas, and solution
Source: EIA, Statistics Canada gas produced at bitumen wells. Total gas use

13
 Purchased Natural Gas North American Natural Gas Supply
by Oil Sands Operations 2008 2009 09 vs. 08
Bcf Bcf Bcf %
500 $9
Alaska 398 397 -2 0%
Billion Cubic Feet

Purchased

$Cdn/GJ
450 Gas $8 Fed. Offshore GoM 2,327 2,433 106 5%
400 AECO Louisiana 1,377 1,532 154 11%
$7
Gas Price New Mexico 1,446 1,404 -42 -3%
350 $6 Oklahoma 1,913 1,858 -55 -3%
300
$5 Texas 6,921 6,851 -70 -1%
250 Wyoming 2,275 2,359 84 4%
$4
200 Other states 4,582 5,059 478 10%
$3 Total US Prod'n 21,240 21,893 653 3%
150
$2 Western Canada 5,459 5,082 -377 -7%
100
Scotian Shelf 161 124 -37 -23%
50 $1
Candian Prod'n 5,620 5,206 -414 -7%
0 $0 Total N.A. Prod'n 26,860 27,099 239 1%
US LNG Imports 352 452 100 29%
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09

US Mexicain Imports 43 28 -15 -35%

20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

Source: ERCB and GLJ Total N.A. Supply 27,255 27,579 324 1%
Source: EIA, Statistics Canada
by the oil sands sector, including gas used by
the electricity cogeneration units on site at the In 2009, combined North American domestic
oil sands operations, was 681 Bcf in 2009. natural gas production increased 239 Bcf (1%)
to reach 27 Tcf. This is the fourth consecutive
Natural gas for power generation remains the year of production increases and solidifies the
primary driver of North American demand trend of rising production.
growth since 2000. US demand for natural gas
to generate electricity increased 32% since The low price of natural gas is not impeding
2000 and now accounts for 26% of total North production of natural gas, as companies are
American demand. Despite volatile natural gas actively pursuing shale gas production, which
prices, the power generation sector has shown appears to still be economic. Canadian natural
an increasing appetite for natural gas as gas production peaked in 2002. Production
environmental and cost pressures make natural fluctuated over the years, however recent years
gas-fired generators an attractive option for marked fairly significant declines.
power generation.
A contributing factor to natural gas demand Canadian Natural Gas Production
growth in the power generation sector in recent
years are warmer summers, particularly in the 7
US, which drives increased summer air
conditioning requirements, and thus, increases 6
gas demand for power generation.
Trillion Cubic Feet

5
Natural Gas Supply 4
2008 was an interesting year for North
3
American natural gas production. US
production increased 5% largely on account of 2
surging shale gas production. Meanwhile,
Canadian production declined 4% owing to the 1
maturing Western Canada Sedimentary Basin
(WCSB). The trend continued in 2009 when US 0
production increased 3% while Canadian
00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

production declined a further 7%. Refer to the

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

table below for a split of each region.

Source: Statistics Canada
14
As illustrated in the graph on the previous page, North American LNG Imports and Capacity
Canadian natural gas production was down (Bcf/d)
nearly 6% in 2008 and a further 7% in 2009.
Canadas Canaport
Canadas Canaport
The Canadian supply picture stands in stark US East Coast
contrast to the US, which continues to record US Gulf Coast
significant growth in gas production. Starting in Avg. Import
Average levels
Import Levels
2006, the US had very strong year over year
production growth including by 5% in 2008 and
another 3% in 2009.
The surging production is primarily attributable
to the improved economics and technology
associated with unconventional gas, particularly
shale gas.

2009 Top 10 Canadian Natural Gas Producers

Rank Company Bcf/d Percent

1 EnCana Corporation 1.99 13%
Canadian Natural Source: EIA, Office of Oil and Gas, StatsCan
2 1.29 8%
Resources
3 ConocoPhillips Canada 1.06 7% Canadian LNG Export project (Kitimat LNG),
4 Talisman Energy Inc. 0.72 5% which would export liquefied shale gas to Asia.
5 Devon Energy Corp. 0.67 4%
The Canaport LNG terminal is currently
6 Husky Energy Inc. 0.54 4%
Canadas only operational LNG import facility
7 Shell Canada 0.53 3%
with a capacity of 1.2 bcf/d. All other LNG
Penn West Energy
8 0.44 3% import and export proposals have been
Trust
9 Suncor Energy 0.37 2% cancelled or delayed on account of:
10 Apache Canada 0.36 2% 1) difficulties securing long term supply
Total Canadian Production 15.28 100% commitments;
2) concerns over existing excess regassification
Source: Oilweek Magazine, July 2010. capacity in North America; and,
3) the prospects for domestic shale gas as a
The table above shows the top ten natural gas
new long term source of natural gas.
producers in Canada. While there are hundreds
of natural gas producers in Canada, the top ten
control 52% of production.
Natural Gas Wells Drilled
Total gas well completions for Western Canada
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in 2009 collapsed in comparison to previous
years. Total gas wells drilled for 2009 set a 10-
For North America as a whole, one
year low at 5,082 compared to 12,361 the year
consequence of growing domestic natural gas
before, as shown in the graph on the following
production and falling prices is reduced
page. This decline is largely due to the
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports. LNG
depressed price of natural gas.
imports were down over 50% in the US in 2008
and exhibited only a very modest recovery in For most of the past decade, in both Canada
2009. and the US, increased drilling was needed just
to sustain production levels. For the US, this
The US LNG imports and capacity graph
trend came to an end in 2009 when production
highlights the huge excess of regassification
increased despite a steep drop in the number of
capacity of LNG import facilities. There are also
wells drilled (down 44% from 2008 levels). The
market participants who believe that Canadian
graph on the following page clearly illustrates
shale gas production will eventually increase.
this reversal.
These market participants are supporting a

15
 Natural Gas Reserves
Canadian Natural Gas Production
Proved reserves of natural gas are estimates of
and Wells Drilled the quantities of gas remaining in known, drilled
6.5 18 reservoirs, that are economic to produce, and
are connected, or can easily be connected, to

Thousands of Wells Drilled

6.0 16
pipelines and markets. As of year-end 2009,
Trillion Cubic Feet

14 Canadian and US combined reserves totalled

5.5
12 nearly 345 Tcf, with 61 Tcf in Canada and 284
5.0 Tcf in the US. The graph below shows North
10
American natural gas reserves since 2000.
4.5 8 Since 1999, US reserves have increased each
6 year, reversing the previous trend of decline.
4.0
4 Based on North American production of about
3.5 26 Tcf per year, the North American reserve-to-
2
production ratio (R/P ratio) is over 13 years. In
3.0 0
other words, if no new gas reservoirs are found,
00

04
05
06
07

US and Canadian reserves would last about 13

01
02
03

08
09
20

20
20
20
20
20
20
20

20
20

years assuming current production rates.9

Production Wells Drilled
Source: Statistics Canada
North American Proved Natural
Gas Reserves
This counter-intuitive result is in part explained
by the shift in production from conventional 300
sources to unconventional sources, shale gas Canada US
in particular. Shale gas drilling tends to be 250
highly productive, especially in the first year,
Trillion Cubic Feet

and uses horizontal drilling techniques which 200

have a higher rate of production. In Canada,
where shale gas development is still in a 150
nascent stage, dramatic declines in drilling led
to equally dramatic declines in production. 100

50
US Natural Gas Production and
Wells Drilled -
00

01

02

07

08

09
03

04

05

06
20

20

20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

22 40
Trillion Cubic Feet

Source: CAPP, EIA

35
Thousands of Wells Drilled

21

20
30 In 2008, Canada posted the largest net reserve
25 addition in over 25 years. Canadian reserves
19 for 2008 jumped 4.3 Tcf (or over 7%). Most of
20 the net reserve additions were attributed to
18
15 British Columbia and increased optimism
17 10
surrounding shale plays. This is a concrete
example of evidence to support the theory that
16 5 Canadian gas production will begin to increase
15 0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09

9 New reserves are found every year. Proved reserves change,

20
20

20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

according to the following formula: proved reserves at start of

year + reserve additions (including revisions, whether positive or
Pr oduction Wells Drilled negative, to previous estimates) during the year - production
Source: EIA during the year = proved reserves at end of year.

16
in the future. Canadian reserves declined about to capture price arbitrage opportunities (e.g.
1.5% in 2009, largely on account of very low inject natural gas into storage when prices are
prices. low, and withdraw natural gas and sell it when
the price is higher).
US natural gas reserve growth is primarily due
to unconventional natural gas. In the two years Depleted oil or natural gas reservoirs and salt
the EIA has collected data on shale gas caverns are commonly used to store natural
reserves, shale gas reserves increased 50% gas. Natural gas storage capacity in Canada is
and now account for 9% of total US reserve spread across five provinces with the majority in
estimates. Alberta and Ontario. Western Canadian storage
is used primarily for managing supply while
Natural Gas Storage storage in eastern Canada is primarily for
balancing Ontarios seasonal demand
Natural gas storage is used to help balance fluctuations.
seasonal variations in demand with relatively
constant supply. In the spring, summer and fall, The illustration depicts the 2008/09, 2009/10
when natural gas demand is low, gas is injected and the beginning of the 2010/11 storage
into storage. Storage volumes normally peak in seasons, as well as the 5 year maximum and
the fall. In winter, volumes are drawn down, minimum levels for Canada. The recent glut of
reaching a low point in the spring. natural gas on the market sent storage levels in
Canada well above previous 5-year maximums.
Ballooning storage volumes were attributable to
low natural gas prices, reduced industrial
Canadian Natural Gas Storage
demand, and surging US production.
700
Natural gas in storage strongly influences
Billion Cubic Feet

600 natural gas prices. Traditionally, there is an

inverse relationship between natural gas
500 storage levels and prices. High storage levels
promote lower prices, and lower storage levels
400 promote higher prices. It is no coincidence that
the record low prices experienced in the last 24
300 months coincided with record high volumes of
200
natural gas in storage.

100 Natural Gas Prices

0 Canadian natural gas prices are unregulated,
and change according to buyer and seller
g.

v.
c.
ne
y

n.
t.

Ma .
rch
ly

p t.
ril

perceptions of supply and demand

Ma

Oc
Ju
Au

No
De
Ja
Ap

Fe
Ju

Se

fundamentals. These fundamental factors can

5 Year Range 2010/11 be short-term in nature or longer-term (e.g.
2009/10 2008/09 expected cost of finding new natural gas over
Source: Canadian Enerdata the next five years).
As illustrated in the figure on the next page,
Local distribution companies (LDCs) inject gas natural gas prices tend to be very volatile and
into storage, and withdraw it in winter to meet are prone to price spikes. Many factors are built
peak winter demand loads in the residential and into the market clearing price for natural gas,
commercial sectors. Storage also allows LDCs including expectations, supply and demand. In
to use contracted, long-haul pipeline capacity at the short term, there are also major shocks that
relatively stable rates all year. can cause natural gas prices to spike, such as
cold winters, hurricanes disrupting supply (e.g.
Producers use storage injections or withdrawals hurricane Katrina), exceptionally high oil prices
to balance fluctuating production levels with (e.g. gas is a substitute), or most recently the
contractual supply obligations. Storage is also global economic recession.
used by both buyers and sellers of natural gas
17
 Regional Natural Gas Prices
AECO NYMEX
Dawn Average (AECO)
$16
Hurricane
Cold winter
Katrina
$14
High oil prices

$12
$CAD/GJ

$10

Global
$8 recession

$6

$4

$2

$0
02

07
00

01

03

04

05

06

08

09

10
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Source: GLJ

As a consequence of reduced natural gas unchanged between 2009 and 2010, at about
demand (due to the economic recession), $3.95/GJ.
plummeting oil prices and surging shale gas
production; natural gas prices collapsed in the Prices in 2009 and 2010 were low both in
summer of 2009. Natural gas prices plunged to absolute terms, and also relative to crude oil
record lows of CAD $3/GJ in the fall of 2009, prices. The low natural gas prices can be
down considerably from the CAD$11/GJ attributed to both the global economic downturn
experienced during the summer 2008. (lower demand) and also the lagged effect of
Canadian natural gas prices in 2010 remained last years drilling and production increases in
low and fluctuated in the $3$6/GJ range. The the US (higher supply).
graph also clearly shows how regional natural North American natural gas prices were
gas prices track each other, with differences in historically strongly influenced by world crude
price primarily a reflection of transportation oil prices and North American petroleum
costs, and whether an area is a producing area product prices. For years, North American
which exports gas (low prices) or a non- natural gas prices (e.g., the NYMEX Henry Hub
producing area which must import gas from price) varied within a price band set on the low
far away (high prices). end by the price per MMBtu of residual fuel oil,
The map on the following page provides and on the high end by the price per MMBtu of
average annual natural gas prices at various distillate. The relationship held on account of
producing basins, market hubs, consumption major industrial consumers being able to switch
markets and export points in North America. fuels on relatively short notice.
Prices are simple 12-month averages. Average
annual AECO natural gas prices were virtually

18
 2010 North American Natural Gas Market Prices
Legend
+/-xx% 2010 price change
compared to 2009
Producing area market with
considerable gas production
$4.10
$4.10 (average 2010 price)
Consuming area market - little
$4.53
$4.53 or no gas production (average
2010 price)
$6.27
$6.27 Gas price Cdn$/GJ
$6.17
$6.17
Gas price US$/MMBtu

Canada/US export point,

volume-weighted average
$3.65 international border export
price (US$/MMBtu)
Station 2 Natural gas pipeline
$3.80 +7%
$3.80
$3.90
$3.90 AECO
$3.95
$3.95 -1%
$4.03
$4.03
Emerson
Huntingdon - $4.35
Sumas $
$4.31
Iroquois
Opal $5.10 Boston
Kingsgate - $5.14
Eastport $3.28 -48% $5.14 +5%
$3.28
$4.17 $4.53
$4.53

Kern County Chicago Niagara

+19% San Juan Dawn $4.92
+12% -
$4.35 +26% $4.85
$4.35
$ 4.10
4.10

$4.38
$4.38
NYMEX
+9%
Source: GLJ

This price relationship was relatively robust already done so. Furthermore, while oil
through to about 2006. However, natural gas products are priced on a global market, natural
and oil have decoupled. Surging oil gas is still predominantly a continental
prices, combined with abundant North commodity.
American natural gas supplies, and resultant
low prices, have kept natural gas prices well The expectation that oil and gas prices will
below residual fuel oil prices in recent years. remain decoupled is fuelling industry efforts to
The decoupling of oil products and natural gas promote the use of natural gas as a cheaper
prices suggests that all industrial consumers and environmentally friendly alternative for
who are able to switch to natural gas have transportation.

19
 Natural Gas Prices vs. Canadian Monthly Natural Gas
Petroleum Product Prices Imports
$30
100
$25 Residential Fuel Oil 90 Imports

Bcf/month
Heating Oil 80
Natural Gas Calendar Year Average
U.S.$/MMBtu

$20 Crude Oil 70

60
$15
50
$10 40
30
$5 20
10
$0
0
00

01

03

04

07

08

10
02

05

06

09

02

03

06

07
00

01

04

05

08

09
20

20

20

20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Sources: Canadian Natural Gas Focus, US EIA
Source: NEB
Natural Gas Imports, Exports and
Revenues The majority of natural gas imports are from the
US. However, in June 2009, Canada received
Canada produces natural gas in excess of what its first LNG cargo at the Canaport terminal in
is required for domestic consumption. Canada Saint John, New Brunswick.
exports about 63% of its gas production, all of
which goes to the US. In 2009, 87% of natural Imports in 2009 were at a record level of 702
gas imported into the US came from Canada. Bcf, a 25% increase over 2008 levels. Some of
the gas exported from Canada is re-imported.
The table below summarizes Canadian natural Natural gas imports have been increasing over
gas imports and exports for 2008 and 2009. In time as purchasers in Southern Ontario find it
2009, Canadian gas export volumes declined cheaper to access gas from the US.
by 11%. Export prices and revenues fell much
harder, down 47% and 53% respectively. The The graph above highlights both the volatility of
decline in export volume was the direct result of imports and their seasonal pattern. Natural gas
falling Canadian natural gas production. As imports typically double during the colder
production falls, exports tend to fall, rather than months to meet peak Ontario and Quebec
domestic consumption of gas. The resulting heating demands. The graph also illustrates
drop in natural gas export revenues led to a Canadas increasing reliance on US imports.
major decline in Canadas trade balance, as is
illustrated in the graph at right. Canadian Gross Natural Gas Export
Revenue and Volumes

Trillion Cubic Feet

Exports
C$ (Billions)

Natural Gas Exports and Imports 40 3.9

Export Revenues
2008 2009 Change 35 3.8
Exports (Gross) 3.7
30
Volume (Tcf) 3.6 3.3 -11% 3.6
Avg. Export Price (C$/GJ) $8.41 $4.42 -47% 25 3.5
Export Revenue (billion) $33.1 $15.5 -53% 20 3.4
Imports (Gross) 3.3
15
Volume (Bcf) 562 702 25% 3.2
Avg. Import Price (C$/GJ) $8.59 $4.85 -44% 10
3.1
Import Expense (billion) $5.17 $3.63 -30% 5 3.0
Net Exports
Volume (Bcf) 3,083 2,554 -17%
0 2.9
00

02

04

06
07
01

03

05

08
09

Net Export Revenue

20

20

20
20
20
20

20
20

20
20

(billion) $27.9 $11.9 -57%

Source: NEB, Statistics Canada Source: Statistics Canada and NEB
20
Review of 2009 Petroleum Products Market
Market Structure Total Petroleum Product
Demand in Canada
Canadian petroleum product prices are 10,000
essentially set in a global market. For example, 9,000
Canadian wholesale gasoline prices are driven

Thousands of cubic metres

8,000
by US benchmark prices, such as the New York 7,000
Harbour price. These US benchmark prices 6,000
reflect the international crude oil price and such 5,000
factors as seasonal demand and inventory 4,000
levels. Canadian wholesale prices must remain 3,000

competitive with these US benchmark prices. 2,000

1,000
This is because if Canadian refiners prices (for
-
products) are lower, products will flow out of the

Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07

Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08

Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09

Nov-09
Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09
country. If refiners prices are higher, marketers
will import lower priced products. The price of
Gasoline Diesel Other Products Heating Oil
crude generally drives the prices of refined
petroleum products. Despite this, crude oil and Note: Other Products includes products such as propane, butane,
petro-chemical feedstocks, jet fuel, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, oils,
petroleum product prices can, at times, move in greases and others.
opposite directions. Source: Statistics Canada, Cat: 45-004

Petroleum Product Demand annual sales had increased back to the pre-
The demand for refined petroleum products 2008 levels.
(gasoline, diesel, furnace oil, and other The Ontario market accounts for 39% of motor
products) in Canada fluctuates along with gasoline sales in Canada, followed by Qubec
seasonal demand (e.g. increased demand for (21%), Alberta (13%), British Columbia (11%),
gasoline during the summer, more heating oil and Atlantic Canada (7%).
used in winter).
Diesel
Demand for refined products in Canada fell in
2008 and in 2009, with the worldwide economic Domestic sales of diesel fuel in 2009 were
slowdown. In 2009, total sales declined by 26.0 billion litres (163.5 million barrels), 8%
6.5 billion litres (40.6 million barrels) from the lower than the year before. Increased diesel
previous year, to 96.6 billion litres (607.2 million demand in 2007 and 2008 reflected strong
barrels).
Domestic Sales of
Gasoline Refined Petroleum Products
In 2009, Canadians consumed 42.3 billion litres 2009
(266 million barrels) of gasoline, an increase of Aviation Diesel Fuel
0.6 billion litres (3.5 million barrels) from 2008. Turbo fuel, Oil Light Fuel Oil
In 2008, gasoline consumption had dropped by kerosene 27% 4%
type
more than 0.5 billion litres. 6%
Heavy Fuel
Oil
Demand for gasoline dropped in the latter part 5%

of 2008 and during the first quarter of 2009 as a

result of the economic slowdown. Demand Other
Gasoline Products
gradually shifted upward, with the traditional 43% 15%
increase in demand for gasoline during the
summer driving season. By year-end, gasoline Source: Statistics Canada, 57-601

21
growth in the Canadian economy and a growing feedstocks, coke, liquid petroleum gases
proportion of diesel-powered vehicles in the (LPGs), lube oil and greases. In 2009, these
fleet. Most of the growth was attributed to accounted for about 36% of domestic petroleum
increased diesel use in the agricultural, mining product sales in Canada.
and energy sectors of Western Canada.
However, in 2009 the 7-year upward trend in HFO demand in 2009 dropped by 23%
diesel consumption ended, as a result of the (1.5 billion litres) to 4.9 billion litres. This
recession. represents 6% of total Canadian petroleum
product demand. HFO is used by the industrial
In 2009, about 49% of the diesel sales occurred sector, for marine transportation, and for
in Western provinces and territories, followed electricity generation.
by Ontario (25%), Quebec (18%) and Atlantic
Canada (8%). In 2009, Quebec accounted for 41% of HFO
demand and the Atlantic provinces 27%. Only
Light Fuel Oil about 32% of HFO demand comes from Ontario
and Western Canada, as industries in these
Light fuel oil, also called heating oil or furnace regions have more extensive pipeline access to
oil, represents less than 4% of total petroleum Western Canadian natural gas supply.
product demand in Canada. Demand for light
fuel oil, totalled 3.4 billion litres in 2009, As the other refined products are usually
0.4 billion litres or 10% below 2008. This mainly relatively low volume specialty products with
reflects the loss of share to natural gas and few substitutes, their demand is somewhat
electricity in the space heating markets of insensitive to the price of crude oil. However,
Ontario and Quebec. Since 2003, demand for consumption is not immune to the state of the
light fuel oil has dropped by more than 35%. economy, and demand for these products fell
during this past recession.
Approximately 10% of Canadian homes use
light fuel oil for heat. Heating oil sales are Supply Overview
concentrated in Eastern Canada, with Atlantic
Canada accounting for about 39% of domestic Petroleum products are produced by refining
sales, Quebec at 32%, Ontario at 24% and the crude oil. In 2009, 11 companies operated
rest of Canada at 5% in 2008. refineries in Canada. Only Imperial Oil, Shell
and Suncor Energy (Suncor and Petro-Canada
Atlantic Canada has the greatest dependence merged in 2009) operate more than one
on oil for heating, with just over half of all refinery and market products nationwide. Other
homes using fuel oil to meet at least a portion of refiners generally operate a single refinery and
their heating needs. Prince Edward Island is by market products in a particular region.
far the most dependent, with close to 85% of all
households using heating oil. Despite the small Regional refiners include Irving Oil
percentage of households in Quebec and (New Brunswick), North Atlantic Refining
Ontario using heating oil to meet their space (Newfoundland and Labrador) and Ultramar
heating needs, heating oil sales in these two (Quebec) in the east and Federated Co-op
provinces represents more than half of (Saskatchewan), Husky and Chevron (British
Canadas fuel oil consumption, due to the size Columbia) in the West.
of the markets.
Of the 19 refineries in Canada, 16 manufacture
In Western Canada, natural gas is the dominant the full range of petroleum products. Huskys
fuel for home heating. Only minimal volumes of facility in Lloydminster, Alberta, and the Moose
light fuel oil are consumed in the prairies, and it Jaw Asphalt plant in Moose Jaw,
accounts for only about 3% of the home heating Saskatchewan, are primarily asphalt plants with
market in British Columbia. limited production of other products. The Nova
Chemicals facility in Sarnia, Ontario, is a
Other Refined Petroleum Products petrochemical plant that also produces some
distillate products.
Other refined petroleum products include heavy
fuel oils (HFO), jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemical

22
 Canadian Refinery Capacity and Utilization Rates
400 100
350 95
90
300
'000 m3 per day

85
250 80

Percent
200 75
150 70
65
100
60
50 55
0 50
00

01

03

05

08
02

04

06

07

09
20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Capacity Throughput Utilization Rate (%)
Source: NEB

economic downturn and poor refinery

There are three main refining centres in economics resulted in lower utilization.
Canada (Edmonton, Sarnia and Montreal) but
most provinces have at least one refinery. The In 2009, Atlantic Canadas utilization rates
exceptions are Manitoba and Prince Edward remained above the Canada average, in part
Island. Also, none of the three territories have due to continued exports to the US and to other
refining capacity. Canadian provinces. However, refinery
utilization rates in Western Canada dipped
It is important to examine refining capacity and below 65% in 2Q09. This was the result of a
refinery utilization rates, as this date provides number of refinery outages due to planned
insight on the economics of building new maintenance and unplanned shut-downs as
refineries, and the state of petroleum product well as upgrader problems, which interrupted
competition. Overall, while Canadian refinery crude supply to oil refineries.
capacity has increased slightly over the last
decade despite the closure of the Petro- With increasingly complex refineries, unplanned
Canada refinery in Ontario 2005 the utilization shutdowns have become more common than in
rates has been dropping steadily since 2004. the past few years particularly in Western
Utilization rates declined more significantly in Canada. A single refinery outage can lead to a
2009 because of lower demand for oil products, significant decrease in local petroleum product
poor refining economics stemming from the supply due to the geographically diverse nature
economic downturn, and unscheduled shut- of the country and the limited number of
downs. refineries in some regions.

Regional Refinery Utilization Rates Petroleum Product Inventory Levels

The figure above shows Canadian refinery Over the past decades refiners have been
capacity and utilization rates. Based on weekly rationalizing their operations in order to reduce
crude oil runs as reported to the National costs and improve rates of return. A key
Energy Board, the Canadian refining industry element of this process has been the reduction
typically operates at approximately 90% of of inventory levels to the minimum required to
capacity. However, in 2008 the industry maintain normal operations.
operated at an average of 87% capacity. This
decreased again in 2009 to 78% the lowest To ensure secure supplies and distribution of
refinery utilization rate in a decade. Essentially, petroleum products, refiners and marketers
low petroleum product demand due to the maintain inventories of the various products in
strategic locations throughout the distribution
23
chain. If supplies of imported or domestic crude
oil are interrupted for any reason, or if the Regional Imports and Exports
(Thousands of cubic metres)
product distribution system fails, companies can
rely on commercial inventories to meet short- 2009 Gasoline Distillates*
term needs while alternate arrangements are
Western Canada
being made.
Net Production 12,580 13,196
Inventory levels for some products, such as Domestic Sales 14,141 12,862
gasoline and light fuel oil, fluctuate significantly Net Imports 1,185 - 587**
over the year. Demand for these products is Net Inter-Regional
very seasonal and at its peak can exceed the Transfers - 57** - 316**
production capacity of refineries. Therefore, Ontario
refiners anticipate peak consumption periods Net Production 10,182 5,666
and build inventories in advance. Gasoline Domestic Sales 16,354 7,343
inventories increase during the first quarter of Net Imports 478 - 564**
the year and are drawn down during the Net Inter-Regional
summer months to supplement refinery Transfers 4,987 2,097
production. Light fuel oil stocks grow during the Eastern Canada
fall and are drawn during the coldest months of Net Production 20,618 17,009
winter when demand is at its highest level. Domestic Sales 11,824 9,220
Net Imports - 4,244** - 5,908**
Refiners also build up inventories of all products Net Inter-Regional
in advance of scheduled refinery maintenance Transfers - 4,929** - 1,782**
(called turnarounds). Turnarounds can vary in Canada
frequency from annually to once every few Net Production 43,379 35,871
years, and sometimes require the refinery to be Domestic Sales 42,319 29,425
completely shut down for a period of several Net Imports - 2,582** - 7,059**
weeks. Refiners prepare by building up product Notes: * Includes diesel and light fuel oil
stocks that can be used during the turnaround. **These numbers indicate the movement of petroleum products
leaving the province/region.
Canadian refiners typically maintain 21 to 26 Source: Statistics Canada
days of gasoline and diesel supplies.
Canada both imports and exports petroleum
Petroleum Product Trade products. Although production has historically
Canadian production of gasoline, diesel, and been substantially higher than consumption,
other petroleum products, as well as domestic rising domestic demand now means that
sales of those products, fluctuates with the imports are more often required in order to
seasons. Canadian production has historically balance domestic markets.
been substantially higher than consumption. Atlantic Canada
However at times, refinery down-time and high
demand require imports, particularly gasoline. Canada exports significant volumes of gasoline,
primarily to the US eastern seaboard, from
Canadian Petroleum Product Regions refineries in Atlantic Canada. In fact, in 2008,
65% of the products manufactured in Atlantic
Canada has four distinct supply/demand Canada were exported, accounting for over
regions for petroleum products: 77% of Canadas total exports of refined
petroleum products. Atlantic Canadian refiners
1) Atlantic Canada, have been very successful in marketing their
2) Quebec, ultra-low sulphur products into the US In 2008,
3) Ontario and Irving Oil announced plans for a new petroleum
4) Western Canada. refinery, the Eider Rock project, that could
At times, product imports, exports and inter- process up to 300,000 barrels of crude oil per
regional transfers play a significant role in day. However, in July 2009, Irving Oil and its
balancing supply and demand in each of these partner BP announced that the proposed new
regions. refinery would be postponed.

24
 Gasoline, Diesel, Heating Oil and Crude Oil Price Comparison
160 Hurricanes 160
Hurricanes Katrina Gustav and Ike
Geopolitical Refinery Maintenance/
and Rita
Uncertainties: Outages in North
140 Economic
140
Israeli/Lebanon Conflict America
Dow nturn
120 120
Gasoline/
Diesel Price
100 Inversion 100
Cents/Litre

Cents/Litre
80 Rising World Crude 80
Oil Prices
60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
5

0
5

0
5

0
9
5

0
n-0

r- 0

r- 0

n-0

r- 0

n-0

r- 0

n-0

r- 0

n-1

r- 1
n-0
l-0

l-0

l-1
l-0

l-0

l-0
t- 0

t- 0

t- 0

t- 0

t- 0

t- 1
Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju
Ap

Ap

Ap

Ap

Ap

Ap
Oc

Oc

Oc

Oc

Oc

Oc
Ja

Ja

Ja

Ja

Ja

Ja
Edmonton Par Crude Gasoline at Retail Diesel Heating Oil

In addition to being a large exporter of Petroleum Product Prices

petroleum products to the US, Atlantic Canada
also has good access to petroleum product Canadian gasoline prices in 2009 were less
imports. Domestic refiners must thus compete volatile than in 2008, averaging 95 cents a litre.
with supplies from the Northeastern US and This was 19 cents below 2008, when prices
Europe. averaged $1.14 per litre, due to strong gasoline
demand and record high crude prices. These
Quebec/Ontario Region factors resulted in retail prices hitting a record
The Quebec and Ontario markets are becoming high of $1.40 in mid-July 2008. However, this
increasingly integrated with significant Quebec was soon followed by a sharp downswing as
refined product being transported to Toronto via crude prices dropped and by the end of 2008,
the Trans-Northern pipeline. Quebec also gasoline prices had bottomed to 72 cents a litre.
serves as a gateway to Ontario for imported Diesel fuel prices averaged $1.25 per litre in
products. 2008, an increase of 25 cents per litre
Western Canada compared to 2007. As with gasoline, diesel
prices rose significantly to reach an all-time
In Western Canada the supply and demand high of $1.49 per litre in mid-July, and then
balance for petroleum products has become dropped steadily until the end of the year. In
increasingly tight because much of Western 2009, after starting the year in a downswing,
Canada is landlocked, there is limited access to diesel prices averaged 90 cents per litre.
supplies from other regions. Refineries had Atypically, from September 2007 to February
been operating at near full capacity for several 2009, diesel prices had risen above gasoline
years. However, supply constraints from prices due to strong world demand growth for
planned turnarounds and unplanned refinery diesel vis--vis other petroleum products.
maintenance and closures resulted in the However, this situation was later reversed with
region becoming a net importer of gasoline and the decline in economic activity and the
distillates in 2007 and 2008 and of gasoline in resulting effect in the construction, agricultural
2009. and transportation sectors. Diesel prices
25
dropped and stayed below gasoline prices for
the remainder of 2009. Canadian Average
140 Retail Pump Price Components
Current and historical prices for gasoline and
diesel are available on NRCans FuelFocus Cents/Litre 125.1
Web site at www.fuelfocus.nrcan.gc.ca. 120 114.1 16.7

Consumption Taxes on Petroleum 17.2 Prov incia l 9.9

100 94.6 Taxes
Products 89.6
15.4
17.0 Fede ral Taxes
An important element of the gasoline and diesel 80 34.0 16.3
retail pump prices is the tax component. 17.0
14.4 Re fining and 8.2
Depending on the location, federal, provincial Marke ting
and, in some cases, municipal and carbon 60 C osts and
Ma rgins
21.9 23.8
taxes apply on these products.
40 Cr ude C osts
There were some significant changes in (estimate)
64.5 64.5
petroleum product consumption taxes in 2008
and 2009. Federal excise taxes on gasoline and 20 41.3 41.3
diesel remained unchanged at 10 cents and
4 cents a litre, respectively. The other
0
component of the federal tax, the Goods and
Service Tax (GST) and, by extension the 2008 2009 2008 2009
GASOLINE DIESEL
Harmonized Sales Tax (HST)10, was reduced
on January 1, 2008, by 1% to 5% and 13%,
respectively. (The federal portion of the HST is carbon tax rate was initially set on a carbon
the same for all provinces.) dioxide equivalent value of $10 per tonne and
will increase by increments of $5 every July 1
On July 1, 2008, British Columbia introduced a until it reaches $30 on July 1, 2012. On July 1,
carbon tax applicable on all petroleum products 2008, the carbon tax was 2.34 cents a litre for
used to produce energy and heat. B.C. is the gasoline and 2.69 cents a litre on diesel and
first province to have a carbon tax, which is a heating oil and on July 1, 2009, increased to
consumer tax, payable at time of purchase. The 3.51 cents and 4.04 cents a litre, respectively.
The figure to the left provides an overview of
Taxes on Gasoline When the Pump the tax component breakdown on a litre of
Price is One Dollar per Litre gasoline by centres across Canada based on
(Cents/Litre) December 1, 2009 tax rates. A table with all
Vancouver 10.0 14.5 6.0 3.51 4.8 applicable federal, provincial and municipal
Montreal 10.0 15.2 1.5 4.4 7.0
St. John's 10.0 16.5 11.5
taxes on petroleum products, including diesel
Halifax 10.0 15.5 11.5 and heating oil, is available in Appendix A.
Saint John 10.0 10.7 11.5
Charlottetown 10.0 15.8 4.8 Petroleum Product Imports, Exports,
Regina 10.0 15.0 4.8
Toronto 10.0 14.7 4.8
and Revenues
Winnipeg 10.0 11.5 4.8
In 2009, Canadian export revenues from
Yellowknife 10.0 10.7 4.8
Calgary 10.0 9.0 4.8
finished products were $12 billion, down 33%
Nunavut 10.0 6.4 4.8 from 2008, a year when product prices were at
Whitehorse 10.0 6.2 4.8 record high levels. Import costs totalled about
0 10 20 30 40
$7 billion, down 33%, for net export revenues of
Excise Tax Provincial Tax roughly $5 billion. In 2009, exports of finished
Municipal Tax Carbon Tax products dropped by 3% to 24.9 billion litres
HST (13%) GST (5%)
Provincial Sales Tax while imports of finished products into Canada
Source: NRCan Fuel Focus. Tax rates as of Dec. 31, 2009 dropped 13% to 15.9 billion litres. In total, net
exports of finished products in 2009 were
10
9.1 billion litres, up from the 7.3 billion litres in
The GST and the provincial sales tax are harmonized in
2008.
Newfoundland/Labrador, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
26
 Petroleum Products Exports and Imports Canadian Petroleum Products
2008 2009 Change Net Export Revenues
Exports (Gross)
Volume (billion litres) 25.6 24.9 -3%
and Volumes
30 30

Billion Litres
Export Revenue (billion) $18.0 $12.1 -33%

C$ Billions
Net Exports
Imports (Gross) 25 Net Export Revenues 25
Volume (billion litres) 18.3 15.9 -13%
Import Expense (billion) $10.9 $7.4 -33% 20 20
Net Exports
Volume (billion litres) 7.3 9.1 +25% 15 15
Net Export Revenue (billion) $7.1 $4.8 -32%
10 10
Source: Statistics Canada
5 5

While export revenues have been trending 0 0

upwards in the past 10 years with the

00
01
02

04

06

08
03

05

07

09
20

20
20

20
20
20
20
20
20

20
exception of 2008 and 2009 which saw
significant product price swings exports Source: Statistics Canada
volumes have typically been in the range of 23
to 26 billion litres per year since 2000. Most of
increased demand are some of the contributors
these exports originated in eastern Canada
to this trend.
where two refineries produce a significant
volume of products destined for Northeastern Net exports of refined petroleum products were
US markets. However, during the same period, 9.1 billion litres in 2009. However, as both
there has been increased reliance on product imports and exports have increased over the
imports to satisfy demand in Quebec and last decade, net exports remain relatively
Ontario. Refinery closures, short term unchanged when compared to 2000.
disruptions, new product specifications and

Canadian Petroleum Products Canadian Petroleum Products

Export Revenues Import Costs and Volumes
and Volumes
30 30 30 30
Exports

Billion Litres
Billion Litres
C$ Billions

Export Revenues
C$ Billions

25 Imports 25
25 25
Import Costs

20 20 20 20

15 15 15 15

10 10 10 10

5 5 5 5

0 0 0 0
00
01
02

07
08
09
03
04
05
06
00
01

04

06
07

09
02
03

05

08

20
20

20
20
20
20
20
20
20

20
20

20
20

20
20

20
20
20
20
20

Source: Statistics Canada Source: Statistics Canada

27
 Outlook to 2030
Energy forecasts are useful to help inform the forecasts anticipate that Canadas
policy development. NRCans Petroleum conventional crude oil production will decline
Resources Branch does not generate its own over time, and oil sands production will
forecasts; instead, PRB canvasses both progressively make up a larger share of
publicly available and private industry forecasts, production.
including Ziff Energy Group. However, within
NRCan, the Energy Policy Branch does
produce an oil and natural gas price outlook as
Canadian Oil Production
part of its Energy Outlook. Plotted together, 4,800
these forecasts provide a good sense of market

Thousand Barrels Per Day

expectations. The graphs depict the range of 4,400
minimum and maximum forecasts, as well as
the average of all forecasts, for crude oil and 4,000
natural gas prices, production and demand.
3,600
Crude Oil Forecasts
3,200
Crude oil prices are widely anticipated to
increase over the coming decades. Noteworthy 2,800
is the fact that crude oil forecasts normally take
into account current market conditions and 2,400
prices are subsequently extrapolated into the

10

16

19

22
13

25
future. Given the difficulty of predicting all of the

20

20
20

20

20

20
factors which can influence the price of oil,
there is no clear consensus on future oil prices.
Overall, the forecasts point towards rising
Canadian crude oil production in the coming
Forecast Crude Oil (WTI) Prices years driven by the oil sands.
$160
World Oil Demand
US $2008 / Barrel

$140
120

$120 100
Million Barrels per Day

$100 80

$80 60

$60 40

$40 20
13

19

25
10

16

22
20

20

20
20

20

20

0
10
12
14
16
18
20

30
22
24
26
28
20
20

20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

The range of long-term crude price forecasts is

shown. These forecasts, the majority of which OECD Non-OECD
only go out as far as 2025, reflect a recent view Source: IEA Reference Forecast, 2010 World Energy Outlook
as to the direction of oil prices.
The range of Canadian crude oil production
forecasts shows considerable variability. All of
28
Of note is the fact that Canada is the only
OECD member country with rising crude oil US Natural Gas Production
production. The major source of variability in all
of the forecasts is the extent to which oil sands
80
production will come online over the coming
decades.
70
Overall, the forecasters expect that Canadian
oil sands production could more than double to
around 3 mb/d by 2020. By 2025, total 60

Bcf/d
Canadian crude oil production could exceed 4.5
mb/d with most production coming from the oil
sands. 50

Canada has a large and growing net surplus of

40
crude oil. The domestic market for oil sands
production will grow with increased production.
Rising surplus Canadian crude oil production 30
will help meet the demands for oil in the US

14

16

22

24

26
10

12

18

20

28

30
market, and could be exported to new markets

20

20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20
in Asia.
particularly in the long run. All forecasts point to
Between 2009 and 2030, the reference forecast declining production in the coming years. With
shows world oil demand growing by 1% per the exception of the NEBs Low Price scenario,
year, due entirely to demand from Non-OECD most forecasts anticipate Canadian production
countries particularly from Asia. In fact, China recovering over the long term. The major
and India alone are projected to account for source of variability in all forecasts is the extent
close to two-thirds of the increase in demand. to which Canadian shale gas production will
Oil demand from Non-OECD countries, come online over the coming decades.
including those in North America, is expected to Production expectations are more bullish for the
decline. US where all surveyed forecasts point to
considerably higher production over the long
Natural Gas Forecasts term. Expectations concerning a growing supply
A survey of Canadian natural gas production reflect increased optimism surrounding shale
forecasts, the majority of which only go out as gas development in the US.
far as 2025, shows considerable variability,

Canadian Natural Gas Production North American Natural Gas Demand

80
25
70
20 60 US
50
15
Bcf/d
Bcf/d

40
10 30
20
5 Canada
10

- 0
16

18

26

28
10

12

14

20

22

24

30
10

16

22
13

19

25

20

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20

20
20

20

20
20

20

20

29
Demand for natural gas is expected to increase
over the long term. This reflects a continuing Forecast Crude Oil and
trend that is decades old. Natural gas demand Natural Gas Prices
$160 $27
typically increases by about 1 percent per year.
$140 $24
Despite optimism surrounding unconventional
gas production, natural gas prices are $21
anticipated to increase over the coming $120 Crude Oil (WTI)

$US 2008 / Per Barrel

$US 2008 / MMBtu

decades. Noteworthy is that prices are also $18
$100
expected to continue trading at a significant
$15
discount to oil prices (on an energy content
$80
basis). The decoupling of crude oil and natural $12
gas prices that has taken place recently, largely $60
on account of surging shale gas production, is $9
expected to stay for the long term. $40
$6
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
$20 $3

$0 $0

10

13

16

19

22

25
20
20

20

20

20

20

30
 Appendix A Taxes on Petroleum Products

Taxes on Petroleum Products December 31, 2009

(Cents/Litre)

Propane Furnace Oil/

Gasoline Diesel (motor Natural Gas
vehicle) (for heating)
Excise Tax 10.0 4.0
Goods and Services Tax 5% 5% 5% 5%
OR : Harmonized Sales Taxes
(which applies in NF, NS, NB) (1) 13% 13% 13% 13%
Newfoundland and Labrador 16.5 16.5 7.0
Prince Edward Island (2) 15.8 19.6
(3)
Nova Scotia 15.5 15.4 7.0
New Brunswick 10.7 16.9 6.7
Qubec (4) 15.2 16.2
Quebec Sales Tax 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
Ontario 14.7 14.3 4.3
Manitoba 11.5 11.5 3.0
Saskatchewan 15.0 15.0 9.0
Alberta 9.0 9.0 6.5
(5) 14.5 15.0 2.7
British Columbia
Additional Carbon Tax 3.51 4.04 2.31 4.04/2.85
Yukon 6.2 7.2
(6)
Northwest Territories 10.7/6.4 9.1
Nunavut (6) 10.7/6.4 9.1
Additional Transportation Taxes in Specific Markets (in addition to above-mentioned taxes)
Montreal (4) 1.5
Vancouver (5) 6.0 6.0
(5)
Victoria 2.5 2.5

Notes:
1. In Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the provincial
retail sales taxes are replaced by a single, harmonized value-added tax, the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST), applicable on all
petroleum products.
2. Since April 2005, gasoline and diesel taxes in Prince Edward Island are revised on the first day of the month.
3. Nova Scotia has a point of sale tax rebate of the provincial portion of the GST on furnace oil.
4. In Quebec, gasoline, diesel and propane taxes are reduced by varying amounts in certain remote areas and within
20 kilometres of the provincial and US borders. The Quebec provincial retail sales tax (QST) applies to all petroleum products.
In Montreal and surrounding municipalities there is an additional an urban tax of 1.5 cents per litre on gasoline.
5. On July 1, 2008, British Columbia (BC) introduced a carbon tax on fuels used to produce energy or heat. In the Greater
Vancouver and Victoria areas, there are additional transportation taxes of 6 and 2.5 cents per litre, respectively, on gasoline
and diesel. For more information on all fuel taxes in BC, visit the Ministry of Finance Web site:
http://www.sbr.gov.bc.ca/business/Consumer_Taxes/consumer_taxes.htm.
6. In the Northwest Territories and Nunavut gasoline is taxed at 6.4 cents per litre in communities not served by a highway
system.

31
Acronyms

kb/d = Thousand Barrels Per Day

mb/d = Million Barrels Per Day

bbl = Billion Barrels

103m3/d = Thousand Cubic Metres Per Day

106m3/d = Million Cubic Metres Per Day

MMcf/d = Million Cubic Feet Per Day

Bcf = Billion Cubic Feet

Tcf = Trillion Cubic Feet

EIA = Energy Information Administration

IEA = International Energy Agency

NEB = National Energy Board

NRCan = Natural Resources Canada

OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

32
Major Data Sources

1. Natural Gas Monthly, Energy Information Administration (EIA).

2. Annual Energy Outlook, EIA.
3. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves, Annual Report, EIA.
4. Marketable natural gas remaining established reserves in Canada, Canadian Association of
Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
5. Statistics Handbook, CAPP.
6. Energy Statistics Handbook, Statistics Canada (Catalogue no. 57-601).
7. Supply and Disposition of Refined Petroleum Products in Canada, Statistics Canada
(Catalogue no. 45-004).
8. Weekly Storage Reports, Gas Daily, quoting surveys of US and Canadian storage volumes by
EIA and Canadian Enerdata, respectively.
9. Canadian Natural Gas Focus, GLJ Energy Publications Inc.
10. Baker Hughes Rig Counts, Baker Hughes Web Site: http://www.bakerhughes.com
11. Various consultants on retainer to NRCan.
12. Ziff Energy Group
13. Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Oil and Gas Journal, December 21, 2009.
14. Export statistics provided to NRCan by the National Energy Board (NEB).
15. Canadian Energy Overview, NEB.
16. Energy Market Assessments, NEB.
17. A Primer for Understanding Canadian Shale Gas, NEB.
18. Reference Case Scenario: Canadian Energy Supply and Demand to 2020, NEB, July 2009.
19. Albertas Energy Reserves and Supply/Demand Outlook 2008-2017 (ST98-2008), Energy
Resources Conservation Board, June 2008.
20. World Energy Outlook 2009, International Energy Agency, November 2009.
21. Energy Market Fact Book, NRCan.

33