THE CLUB OF ROME

THE PREDICAMENT OF MANKIND

------------

Quest for Structured Responses

to Growing World-wide
Complexities and Uncertainties

A PROPOSAL

1970

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

SECTION ONE: Work Statement & Proposal (green pages)

I. INTRODUCTORY
II. II. THE CLUB OF ROME
III. III. THE PROBLEMATIQUE: AN OVERVIEW OF THE SITUATION
IV. IV. THE PROPOSAL

SECTION TWO: Conceptual Frame & Work Procedures (white pages)

I. INTRODUCTION: THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

II. TENTATIVE PLANNING CONSTRUCT

III. GENERAL COMMENTS ON METHODOLOGY

IV. MODEL OF WORK PROCESS AS PRESENTLY ENVISAGED

SECTION THREE: Annexes (pink pages)

ANNEX I: THE CLUB OF ROME

ANNEX II: THE IDEA OF A WORLD FORUM
ANNEX III: THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
ANNEX IV: THE WORK GROUP
ANNEX V: CONSULTANTS

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 SECTION ONE

WORK STATEMENT & PROPOSAL

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 THE CLUB OF ROME

THE PREDICAMENT OF MANKIND

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WORK STATEMENT AND PROPOSAL

I. INTRODUCTION

As in every epoch of its existence, mankind today finds

itself in a particular "situation". And as always this situation
is created and nurtured by those who live amid the myriad events
that comprise it --events that now are in the process of
tumultuous and ever accelerating change, events that now
increasingly and even violently clash with one another. In some
deep sense our situation compels us to animate and perpetuate it
almost blindly, and thus to move toward a future whose shape or
quality we do not comprehend, whose surprises we have not
succeeded in reducing to a rational frame of ideas, whose
complexities we are not in the least sure of being able to
control.
There are, however, a few basic perceptions that possess
both wide currency and increasing persuasiveness, by means of
which people in many different walks of life have begun to
apprehend the nature of this situation. It is thanks to such
perceptions that we have come to recognize the forces that hold
us in their grip as arising from what we have long recognized as
being the very source of our power and achievement --at least in
those countries where the industrial mode of life has flourished
and broken the back of age-old scarcities.

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 The source of our power lies in the extraordinary techno-
logical capital we have succeeded in accumulating and in
propagating, and the all-pervasive analytic or positivistic
methodologies which by shaping our minds as well as our
sensibilities, have enabled us to do what we have done. Yet our
achievement has, in some unforeseen (perhaps unforseeable)
manner, failed to satisfy those other requirements that would
have permitted us to evolve in ways that, for want of a better
word, we shall henceforth call "balanced." It has failed to
provide us with an ethos, a morality, ideals, institutions, a
vision of man and of mankind and a politics which are in
consonance with the way of life that has evolved as the
expression of our success. Worse, it has failed to give us a
global view from which we could begin to conceive the ethos,
morality, ideals, institutions, and policies requisite to an
inter-dependent world --this, despite the fact that the dynamics
of our technologies and of our positivistic outlooks are global
in their impacts, their consequences, their endless profusion
and, more importantly, in the promises they proclaim and in the
promises they imply.
This failure is often regarded as having created a number
of separate and discrete problems capable of being overcome by
the kind of analytic solutions our intellectual tradition can so
readily generate. However, the experience of the past twenty or
thirty years has shown with remarkable clarity that the issues
which confront us in the immediate present, as well as their
undecipherable consequences over time, may not too easily yield
to the methods we have employed with such success in the bending
of nature to our will. Such apparent resistance could be
attributable to many things, none of which must be pre-judged,
but about which certain, assumptions might be made. It could be
due, for instance, to the magnification of the problems we must
grapple with --that is, to the fact that almost all of them are
global in scope, whereas the socio-political arrangements we have
created are ill-equipped for dealing with issues that fall

5
outside their strictly established jurisdictions. It could be due
to heightened yet often obscure interactivity among phenomena,
whereas our manner of solving problems owes its strength and
efficiency to the identification of rather clear and direct lines
of causality. It may be due to rapid rates of change, especially
in the technological sector, whereas our institutions, outlooks
and minds are geared by long-time habit to beliefs in slow
unfolding and permanence --beliefs which have sustained certain
relatively stable concepts of polity, of social order and of
intellectual orderliness. In brief, whatever it is due to, the
conjuncture of events that surrounds us is to all evidence
worldwide, complex, dynamic, and dangerous.
Moreover such a situation can be seen as a new, or novel,
experience, for in our long commitment to stability and
continuity we have hitherto succeeded more or less, in steering
our social evolution toward the known and in avoiding that which,
for being unknown, was also uncertain and, therefore,
frightening.
Because of the dissonances that inhere in our situation we
find that our current attitudes toward life and issues are
tending to become rigidly polarized and in consequence, hesitant
to the point of paralysis. On the one hand, we take refuge in the
comforts of that inertia we believe is going to help us preserve
all the attributes of what we have come to call and to accept as
"civilization". On the other hand, we tend to seek escape in
iconoclastic or utopian futurisms whose feasibility and
intellectual worth we know to be questionable, but in whose
visions of a wholly new human order we sometimes find solace as
well as some fleeting release.
These contradictory attitudes toward uncertainty are old.
However, it bears repeating that the uncertainty, as we
experience it today, is new --both in its dimensions and in its
extraordinarily complex dynamics and structure. From this
fundamental mismatch between the situation, that we still insist
on describing as a set of "problems," and our mental and

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emotional attitudes, which we continue to feel might give birth
to "solutions," we can already make the assumption that our
notion of problem is wholly insufficient for us to face whatever
it is that our situation proposes both to our intellect and to
our conscience. At the same time our notions of solution are
equally insufficient to enable us to define those outcomes that
could or might result in novel ways of coping with our
predicament --namely, of organizing our vision at a higher level
where new approaches and attitudes might begin to acquire a
degree of immediate relevance.
It is the aim of this particular project of the Club of
Rome to turn the above assumption into a positive statement, by
trying to cognize and investigate the all-pervasive problematique
which is built into our situation, through some new leap of
inventiveness. Success in an attempt of this nature would enlarge
and deepen both our sensibility and our understanding and open
the way for certain new attitudes that eventually might become
reflected, concretely and operationally, at those levels of
decision making where policy is formulated.
In the making of such an effort the factor of time has
acquired the utmost importance, for rapid change which is a
crucial aspect of our technological momentum is accompanied by a
parallel phenomenon: the similarly rapid and massive
crystallization of any corrective action we devise and apply to
single problems, to the discrete components of the situation. If
our initial surmise that such partial cures are either
insufficient or irrelevant is correct, it follows that every such
action exacerbates the problematique as a whole and adds certain
irreversible features to it. This, then, must lead us to conclude
that time is not only of the essence but an absolute imperative
that must condition any undertaking which seeks a new approach to
the dilemma of our age.
This point is well illustrated by some recent studies
concerning "decision effectivity time." Such studies indicate

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that any corrective or beneficent effects of present action are
dependent on varying time-spans, and that in many instances these
time-spans have narrowed down to a critical minimum. A number of
types of crisis have been singled out whose flash-points could
now be seen as clustered well within the decade of the 1970's.
Thus, effectivity margins that apply to general problem classes
such as large-scale destruction or change, widespread tensions,
continuous and growing distress, tension producing responsive
change, etc., are increasingly conceived as probably falling
within a 1-7 year range (nuclear escalation, 1-5 years at the
outset; institutional insufficiencies, 3-5 years; participatory
impatience which is one of the main factors feeding the
alienation of our youth, 3-4 years; widening famine, 5-7 years;
pollution, housing, education, etc.,3-7 years). These random
instances serve to show that if something is to be done it needs
to be done now --for otherwise we might be confronted by that
ultimate experience: N-E-V-E-R.
Such then is the predicament of mankind, and the object of
this document is to describe, in terms that are perforce still
somewhat cursory, what can be done now, the issues that must be
addressed, the organization of the needed effort, its scope and
its program, the methods of investigation that appear pertinent
and the outcomes which, a priori, one might hope for.
The document is divided into three parts. The present first
section contains an overall description of the above points. The
second section is an attempt to discuss in a very general way
some of the methods of approach and organization that could be
considered at this stage as possibly being useful in an
undertaking of this kind. The last section consists of various
clarificatory annexes describing, among other things, the aims,
plans, and general philosophy of the Club of Rome. A few comments
on these aims, which directly relate to the present project,
follow.

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 II. THE CLUB OF ROME

The Club of Rome is an informal, non-political, multi-

national group of scientists, intellectuals, educators, and
business leaders deeply concerned with the situation just
sketched, who among them have decided to face the issues that
confront mankind in any way which offers the hope of reaching a
new level of understanding and therefore of successful action.
The members of this group have access to considerable
sources of information and knowledge. Acting jointly, they
believe that they can mobilize enough intellectual and financial
support to try to undertake the present project that should be
viewed, not as another research study, but as an effort at
intellectual breakthrough that promises a fresh vision and
approach. It is their belief that only an effort which strives to
go beyond "conventional wisdom" and methodological orthodoxy can
allow us to perceive the complex dimensions of the problematique
of our age, and thus set the stage for the formulation and
development of the long-term options and alternative outlooks
needed for policy-making. They are further convinced that a group
of private persons who while concerned are nevertheless free from
the responsibility of day-to-day political decision --and who, as
individuals, have no political ambition except the good of
mankind and its survival --can contribute in this way to the work
of those who are responsible for leadership and action.
With reference to the project under consideration, the
major objectives of the Club of Rome are:
1) To examine, as systematically as possible, the nature and
configuration of the profound imbalances that define
today's problematique throughout the world, and to attempt
to determine the dynamics of the interactions which
seemingly exacerbate the situation as a whole.
2) To develop an initial, coarse-grain, "model" or models of
this dynamic situation in the expectation that such models
will reveal both those systemic components that are most

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 critical and those interactions that are most generally
dangerous for the future.
3) To construct a "normative" overview from the foregoing
models and to clarify the action implications --i.e., the
political, social, economic, technological, institutional,
etc., consequences --that such an overview might entail and
substantiate.
4) To bring everything that has been learnt as a result of
this initial effort, to the attention of those in political
authority, in the hope that such findings might stimulate
the conception of new lines of policy that would be
effective in coping with our situation's overall dynamics
and its world-wide dimensions.
5) To persuade governments to convene a World Forum,* with
whose consent, support, and encouragement an intensive
dialogue concerning the findings of the project would be
initiated to the end that a much larger and deeper effort
could be undertaken. Such an effort would aim at developing
the needed operational "macro-models" conducive to
endeavors at integrated policy-planning and to the
development of new institutions within whose frame of
competence such work could be carried out.

These objectives have been set with the full knowledge that
many governments and international organizations are beginning to
recognize the dangers with which our present situation is
fraught. Thus on the international level bodies such as NATO or
OECD are now undertaking detailed work on many individual issues,
while the United Nations is planning a world conference on the
problems of the "Environment" in 1972. These moves are welcome
and should add greatly to our recognition and understanding of
the grave matters that are facing the whole of mankind.
--------------
*For further information regarding this point, please see
Annex II in the last section of this document.

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 Nevertheless, the prime difference between these approaches
and the one being proposed by the Club of Rome must be noted. It
resides in the fact that most current efforts are directed toward
single or parallel problems and do not attempt any consistent and
comprehensive study of the totality of the problematic events
that add up to our world system; nor do they address themselves
to the areas of dynamic interaction or of overall consequences of
these events; nor, for that matter, are they explicitly concerned
with questions of institutional change, development, and
invention which might be necessary to cope with what is
confronting us.
The approach adopted by the Club of Rome, on the other
hand, derives from the threefold hypothesis:
a) that the predicament we seek to understand is systemic in
character; and that the boundaries of the system encompass
the entire planet;
b) that the real problematique which inheres in the situation
has now transcended discrete categories of events
--overpopulation, malnutrition, poverty, pollution, etc. --
and arises from confused and obscure consequence- patterns
generated by the interactions of such categories of events;
c) that any desirable, or even acceptable, resolution of the
problematique will in all probability entail, at least as
outcomes to be seriously considered, fundamental changes in
our current social and institutional structures, for the
simple reason that these structures were not established to
operate in so complex and dynamic a situation as the one in
which we find ourselves.

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 III. THE PROBLEMATIQUE:

AN OVERVIEW OF THE SITUATION

I. THE IDEA OF "PROBLEMATIQUE"

It is in the nature of our languages, hence of our manner

reality, to see and call the dissonant elements in a situation,
"problems".
Similarly, we proceed from the belief that problems have
"solutions" --although we may not necessarily discover these in
the case of every problem we encounter. This peculiarity of our
perception causes us to view difficulties as things that are
clearly defined and discrete in themselves. It also leads us to
believe that to solve a problem it is sufficient to observe and
manipulate it in its own terms by applying an external problem-
solving technique to it.
Although it is true that there are certain problems (mostly
in the field of technology and engineering) that can be dealt
with in this way, it is also becoming quite evident that such
problems are no longer the most important ones with which we must
deal.
When we consider the truly critical issues of our time
such as environmental deterioration, poverty, endemic ill-health,
urban blight, criminality, etc., we find it virtually impossible
to view them as problems that exist in isolation --or, as
problems capable of being solved in their own terms. For even the
most cursory examination will at least reveal the more obvious
(though not necessarily the most important) links between
problems. Where endemic ill health exists, poverty cannot easily
be divorced from it, or vice versa. Certain kinds of criminal
behavior often, though not always, seem to be related to poverty
or slum living conditions. Furthermore, if we try to solve any
such problems exclusively in their own terms we quickly discover
that what we take to be the solution of one category of problem

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may itself generate problems of another category (the reduction
of death rates in developing areas and the resultant increase in
poverty, public unrest, overpopulation, etc., is a good example
of this single avenue approach).
Another unfortunate consequence of the preference we
display toward orthodox problem-solving is the misapplication of
effort and energy. Thus many agronomists devote a great deal of
ingenuity toward increasing the yield per acre of our crops
without seeming to realize that the particular solution called
"agriculture" may possibly no longer represent the single,
feasible resolution of the problems clustered under words such as
"hunger" or "malnutrition" when the latter are considered in
their world-wide dimensions. It seems reasonable, therefore, to
postulate that the fragmentation of reality into closed and well-
bounded problems creates anew problem whose solution is clearly
beyond the scope of the concepts we customarily employ. It is
this generalized meta-problem (or meta-system of problems) which
we have called and shall continue to call the "problematique"
that inheres in our situation.

2. TOWARD A GENERALIZED RATIONALE

The fragmentation of reality caused by our conceptual and

linguistic makeup notwithstanding, it is still necessary to talk
about the situation and to communicate ideas concerning it. Since
we have no new language for doing this, we can only approach the
notion of the problematique in terms that are familiar to us. We
can break down the problematique into its major components and we
can list such components, both for purposes of their tentative
identification and of creating a referential base, under the
title of Continuous Critical Problems. The listing that follows
represents a general statement of the most commonly recognized
problems of this sort.

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 CONTINUOUS CRITICAL PROBLEMS:
AN ILLUSTRATIVE LIST

1) Explosive population growth with consequent escalation of

social, economic, and other problems.
2) Widespread poverty throughout the world.
3) Increase in the production, destructive capacity, and
accessibility of all weapons of war.
4) Uncontrolled urban spread.
5) Generalized and growing malnutrition.
6) Persistence of widespread illiteracy.
7) Expanding mechanization and bureaucratization of almost
all human activity.
8) Growing inequalities in the distribution of wealth
throughout the world.
9) Insufficient and irrationally organized medical care.
10)Hardening discrimination against minorities.
11)Hardening prejudices against differing cultures.
12)Affluence and its unknown consequences.
13)Anachronistic and irrelevant education.
14)Generalized environmental deterioration.
15)Generalized lack of agreed-on alternatives to present
trends.
16)Widespread failure to stimulate man's creative capacity to
confront the future.
17)Continuing deterioration of inner-cities or slums.
18)Growing irrelevance of traditional values and continuing
failure to evolve new value systems.
19)Inadequate shelter and transportation.
20)Obsolete and discriminatory income distribution system(s).
21) Accelerating wastage and exhaustion of natural resources.
22)Growing environmental pollution.

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23)Generalized alienation of youth.
24)Major disturbances of the world's physical ecology.
25)Generally inadequate and obsolete institutional
arrangements.
26)Limited understanding of what is "feasible" in the way of
corrective measures.
27)Unbalanced population distribution.
28)Ideological fragmentation and semantic barriers to
communication between individuals, groups, and nations.
29)Increasing a-social and anti-social behavior and
consequent rise in criminality.
30)Inadequate and obsolete law enforcement and correctional
practices.
31)Widespread unemployment and generalized under-employment.
32)Spreading "discontent" throughout most classes of society.
33)Polarization of military power and psychological impacts
of the policy of deterrence.
34)Fast obsolescing political structures and processes.
35)Irrational agricultural practices.
36)Irresponsible use of pesticides, chemical additives,
insufficiently tested drugs, fertilizers, etc.
37)Growing use of distorted information to influence and
manipulate people.
38)Fragmented international monetary system.
39)Growing technological gaps and lags between developed and
developing areas.
40)New modes of localized warfare.
41)Inadequate participation of people at large in public
decisions.
42)Unimaginative conceptions of world-order and of the rule
of law.
43)Irrational distribution of industry supported by policies
that will strengthen the current patterns.
44)Growing tendency to be satisfied with technological
solutions for every kind of problem.

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 45)Obsolete system of world trade.
46)Ill-conceived use of international agencies for national
or sectoral ends.
47)Insufficient authority of international agencies.
48)Irrational practices in resource investment.
49)Insufficient understanding of Continuous Critical
Problems, of their nature, their interactions and of the
future consequences both they and current solutions to
them are generating.*

It should be evident that these Continuous Critical

Problems are meant merely to serve as general labels under each
of which entire trees or clusters of issues that appear
analogous, can be classified. Further, neither their rate of
occurrence nor their intensity is uniform throughout the world.
Therefore, the causality structure that underlies such a listing
is obviously of extreme complexity and actually impossible fully
to ascertain through mere observation for, even on direct
empirical evidence, it is clear that the true list must be many
times larger than what we have given.
However, even from this limited listing we begin to sense
that these large problem-areas are system-wide, interdependent,
interactive and intersensitive; that they transcend national
frontiers, or even regional boundaries; and that they are
seemingly immune to linear or sequential resolution.
This, in turn, suggests that when the problem-trees have
grown to world-wide proportions their branches intertwine --or,
if we use the image of clusters, we can say that the clusters
overlap. Such areas of overlap then create new problem-areas
----------
* These Continuous Critical Problems are not listed or grouped in
any particular order; nor is the list to be regarded as complete.

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whose description (hence our understanding of them) escapes the
boundaries of the original taxonomy. Therefore, the line of
approach to be taken must first aim at clarifying the systemic
character of the problem-areas, and secondly, must re-state them
in a way that will make their most critical synergies visible.
The five frames that will be found on the following two
pages are an attempt to give a graphic portrayal of this dynamic
and interactive growth of the problematique. In each of the
frames the problem-areas are symbolized by differently shaped
shaded spaces.
Fig.l merely represents an arbitrary and random positioning
of such problem-areas, with the aim of describing a situation
wherein the visible interactions among the conjuncture of
problems is patently weak or, even probably, non-existent. Such
situations have often been experienced in the past especially if
they were being viewed in terms of the whole world as the context
within which the singular problem areas were evolving.
It is with reference to this type of situation that our
problem-solving methods were developed. And they consist in
attacking each of the problem-areas separately and in attempting
to find discrete solutions in each such area. This analytic habit
continues to hold sway over our minds, despite the fact that we
have, by now, recognized the existence of certain contiguities
among the problem- areas. Such contiguities have become manifest
some time ago, and are no doubt due to the growth of the problems
--although this growth has displayed different rates in its
momentum, and has occurred along different vectors (Fig.2).
The continuation of these trends would seem to have turned such
contiguities into clusterings and overlaps (Fig.3), which we may
perceive superficially but whose real structure and dynamics
escape us. In actual fact the situation tends increasingly to
appear as a single complex system whose internal relationships,
interactions, fields of force, and overlaps are extremely
confused (Fig.4) and impossible to delineate without a very
serious attempt to model it in its entirety. Such a modeling

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18
effort could, for example, reveal the morphology of the situation
as resembling what is shown in Fig.5 --namely, as having a
composite dynamic core, and differing intensities of interfaces
and relationships, all of which must be identified and organized
into a unified frame of perception and understanding.

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 Such an approach --which can only incompletely be
communicated in two-dimensional drawings --is clearly needed and
clearly important for it now appears possible to surmise that
attempts at understanding the situation in terms of isolated
problems have gone almost as far as they can. If this be true,
then, greater effort along the same lines should teach us but
little that is new about the phenomena which make up the issues,
and hardly anything at all about the living, changing, dynamic
texture of the interconnections that actually create a
"situation".
If we are to learn something new it would appear,
therefore, that we need to create one or more situational models
which might reveal --with reference to, but almost independently
from, the problem-clusters:
1) the identity of the most critical and sensitive compo-
nents of the situation;
2) the main or major interactions that exist among the
various variables contained in the situation;
3) the behavior of the main variables in relation to within
the situation;
4) the time-dependent ordering of the chief possible out-
comes and of their present consequences for action;
5) the presently invisible critical connections that operate
systemically within the present situation and that
situation's future configuration;
6) the positive and negative synergies that must exist among
various alternative consequences and options.

Factors such as the above can be explored because, by means

of modeling the situation correctly, it becomes feasible (1} to
penetrate the areas of interdependence among problems and
clusters of problems; {2) to manipulate the models artificially
--so as to observe the behavior of the situation's components
under differently structured configurations. After the modeling
work has been completed it should be possible to elaborate

20
suggestions for curative or corrective action that might prove
helpful in developing policies. However, to be taken, all these
steps require that a ground be established upon which the entire
modeling effort can be made to rest. Such a ground is what we
shall refer to as the "value-base."

3. THE VALUE-BASE

The primary aim of modeling is to give the subject a shape,

a structure, a configuration that is determined by an objective
which, itself, is external to the subject. Hence the clarifi-
cations or insights that might be obtained from a successful
modeling effort are never reached in terms of the subject {i.e.,
a problem or a situation) but in terms of the external objective
to satisfy which the modeling was undertaken in the first place.
Such an objective always entails a value, and the setting of it
must therefore create the particular value-base that gives
meaning and direction to the whole endeavor.
A value-base explicitly stipulates certain assumptions
about what is good" and what "bad."* In the past, it was not
always necessary to make such a stipulation because a problem
could be recognized clearly and singularly as a problem and
therefore fell automatically into a negative value category. This
is not the case nowadays when we must deal with the problematique
of a whole world-wide situation. In so extended and complex a
problem area the value premises reveal themselves as being so
confused that it becomes imperative to define a value-base that
will govern the work from the very outset.
The value-base to be selected must satisfy certain
----------
* This manner of proceeding is actually implicit whenever
we say that something represents a problem". When we call
occurrences such as hunger, or over-population, or lack of
education, problems" we are in fact defining them in this
way because according to our value system they represent a
state that is bad, in comparison to an alternative possible
state --which we call solution" --that we accept as being
good.

21
fundamental criteria. First, it must qualify as a heuristic
tool-concept that can be used throughout the study. Secondly, it
must be consonant with the initial perceptions and beliefs that
have triggered the work. Thirdly, it must support, and in some
sense justify, the outcomes that are expected from the effort.
The second and third criteria have already been elaborated
throughout the preceding pages; nevertheless, it might bear
repeating here that the ground of pre-suppositions from which we
shall start is the belief, backed by considerable empirical
evidence, that there are strong interactions among the events
which create our situation and that, while it is impossible fully
to isolate the former, it should be feasible to identify, through
modeling, some critical aspects of their temporal and spatial
morphology. And, moreover, that such identification might also
permit us to anticipate a number of dissonances which may not
exist at present, but whose developing conjuncture could well be
forming those new issues and problems which will define our
future.
It is on this ground of perceived fact and belief that we
must now evolve the value-base of the work, as a heuristic tool-
concept that will satisfy the first criterion stated above. This
can be done with reference to the nature of the problematique
itself, that is, with reference to the most general attributes we
find in those component elements of our situation that we have
called Continuous Critical Problems. When we review these (even
superficially) we find that all of them are problems in relation
to something else --either other problem-clusters or a particular
state of the system in terms of which we look at them, or values
we take for granted because they are embedded in our current
culture. Thus, for example, uncontrolled population growth is a
problem when viewed in relation to a particular state of the
environment that we are now experiencing. It was not a problem
when we experienced the environment differently; namely, in a
different state of the overall system. Such examples can be
multiplied, and if they are we shall notice that in every

22
instance the problematic element derives from an imbalance that
affects the relationships existing among situational components.
This observation cannot but remind us directly that imbalance is
a state which defines the pathology of an "ecological" system,
which, in fact, our situation, seen in its entirety, represents.
Ecology, as one hardly needs to note, is the study of the
equilibria and the dynamics of "populations" of living entities
within given environments. The notion can be extended and
generalized to comprise the equilibria and the dynamics of all
entities, for every dimension of contemporary experience is a
definable population of facts and concepts: biological,
physiological, physical, psychological, ethical, religious,
technological, economic, political, national, international,
communal, attitudinal, intellectual, institutional...; the full
list is no doubt finite but very long indeed. It covers
everything and event among which relations of mutual
determination, complementarity or competitiveness can be
established.
Hence if we extend, as is increasingly being done nowadays,
the definition of ecology to comprise the dimensions of
occurrence in our world-wide environments it becomes possible to
say that we are confronted with a problematique which is
ecosystemic in character. The normative statement that describes
the value- content of any ecosystem is "ecological balance."
Consequently it is the idea of ecological balance that can, and
will, be taken as the underlying value-base of the study; for in
the terms dictated by our situation the "good" is self-evidently
and most generally capable of being defined as the re-
establishment of that many-dimensional dynamic balance that seems
to have been lost in the modern world.
Given the general conditions of this study, such a value-
base should make it possible to develop models and attain
insights that have global relevance, and should further open the
way for the integration of the models into one primary synthesis
capable of providing ideas that, subsequently, can be made

23
actionable in terms of concrete policies, of new structures, and
new institutions.

4. CONCLUSION

The points that have just been touched upon amount to

saying that: apart from the reasons of urgency for which the
study is being recommended its only a priori hypotheses arise
from the recognition of the problematique as possessing world-
wide dimensions and therefore systemic characteristics, and that
the functional attributes of today's world system necessarily
involve normative elements which, being planet-wide, transcend
sectoral, political, or regional differences; and the recognition
that our current methods of description as well as our social and
institutional structures are not designed to operate effectively
in a system which is world-wide.
It should be repeated in order to emphasize the point, if
for no other reason, that the approach briefly described above
is non-political be it in motivation, in methodology, or in its
initial results. Its aim is to create new clarificatory models of
the known and already described components of our complex
problematic situation so that the subsequent activity of policy
formulation may be facilitated or even made possible. It
represents a step forward in relation to the present state of
affairs, inasmuch as the current ways of describing our situation
do not allow of any rational or effective attempt to grapple with
the fundamental political considerations to which all insights
and conclusions must ultimately be reduced.

24
 V. THE PROPOSAL

The effort as a whole would be divided into two distinct

steps:

First: The "project" as described herein, undertaken by the Club

of Rome and dealing with the empirical aspects of the
situation, its morphology and the interrelationships that
operate among its components. This would be the rough
modeling phase;
Second: A subsequent and more ambitious phase, hopefully to be
undertaken by the World Forum, dealing with the study of
the critical aggregations revealed by the initial model and
would aim at the discovery of alternative means of
interpreting and resolving interface imbalances and to
the identification of various options that are suggestive
of coordinated policies.

I. SCOPE
At the present juncture, the scope of the project (first
step) is seen as follows:
to define criteria for identifying imbalances of a global
nature especially with reference to their future evolution
to attempt a qualitative and quantitative delineation of
the interactions that appear critically synergistic within
the situation created by these imbalances;
to establish a tentative morphology of problem interfaces
and interactions;
to identify and evaluate the main trends of research
currently being undertaken with reference to this type
of problem, to determine the degree to which such research
can contribute to the investigation of the overall
problematique;

25
 to outline programmes, initial methods of approach tasks
and responsibilities pertaining to the investigation as a
whole;
to attempt to take the first steps necessary for the
development of a dynamic computerized model by means of
which the entire structure, rather than the mere
parameters, of the situation can be manipulated, so that
new configurations of the problematique may be revealed and
experimented with.

2. PROGRAM

The governing statement concerning the project as a whole

is that its aim is not research in the traditional sense
but "invention."

This should be understood to mean that what is expected

from the effort are new insights and approaches rather than the
further and deeper elaboration of already known facts. The latter
will be used in their present state of elaboration as the
substantive material upon which the work will bear --however, the
expectation that animates the work itself concerns the meaning
which all these facts, in their systemic nature and system-wide
impacts, have for the future of mankind.
Hence it is necessary to interpret the following program in
the light of the above statement of purpose.

a) Investigation
This initial attempt should define some of the main
empirical dimensions of the problematique, the way it is
presently sensed and perceived.
The sources from which this information will be obtained
are international agencies, research institutions, universities,

26
special study groups, foundations, unions, associations, youth
groups, and various selected interest groups, etc.
Existing data banks of national or international scope
dealing with critical world problems will be located and used
insofar as possible.
Nevertheless in order to avoid sliding into some form of
taxonomic research activity the project will for a start concern
itself mainly with the basic grouping of problematic issues that
are most widely known. These were listed earlier in this document
under the heading of Continuous Critical Problems.
Each of the Continuous Critical Problems that were named
is today the object of more or less deep research in many
organizations and in many countries. This research is generaliy
directed toward the problems themselves and not toward their
interrelations--an aspect to which particular emphasis is to be
given in the proposed effort. A comprehensive survey of this
ongoing research must necessarily be made in order to identify
capabilities, lags, and gaps in the body of understanding and
knowledge now available, and to make use of any pertinent
information it affords us.
Therefore the investigatory phase will attempt primarily at
infusing the Continuous Critical Problems with as great an
operational meaning as feasible; to enlarge or reduce or refine
the initial listing by means of trees and clusters; to establish
definitions that are more precise especially in relation to the
value-base of ecological balance.

b) System Description
The investigatory part of the work should lead to, or be
accompanied by, the design of the system which represents the
matique in its world-wide generality.
The organization of such a system must be so conceived as
to reveal:

27
 the structure of the dominant interrelationships among
systemic components.
the nature and present intensity of the interactive
relationships; the nature and intensity of the "feedback"
and "feedforward" effects; the general (obvious) causality
patterns into which the interactions can be seen.
the dynamic of the interactions from which some idea
system's future states can be sensed or deduced.
the controlling elements of the system as it is today, and
how this order is likely to change as the system evolves in
time.
the component linkages that appear to be the mostly
critical.
the functional morphology of the linkages: degrees of
rigidity, flexibility, equilibrium, stability --in the
rates and the levels of the system of interactions.

The final configuration of situational components to emerge

from the proposed study will therefore have a spatial and
temporal morphology that embodies the dynamic process that
animates critical world problems, when that process is set in the
context of a general value framework of ecological balance.
The project will not attempt a forecast of how problems
will be apprehended in the future, although the final shape of
the system will depend on the integration of alternative
perceptions of the future with perceptions that have currency
today.

c) Report
The project should result in either one or several reports
containing the synthesis of the work conducted, interpreting the
new system of world-wide critical interconnections, the key
problem-clusters that should be given particular attention, and
the methods to be used in their further investigation.

28
d) Outcome
The reports, by giving a clearer picture of the nature of
the problematic interactions, of their relative importance and
their dynamic configurations, should be of use as a preliminary
indication of possible new and viable directions in the field of
policy-making.
Once this initial aim is attained it is the hope of the
Club of Rome to have its findings reinterpreted in depth by the
kind of instrumentality that was referred to earlier as the World
Forum. Such reinterpretation would allow the results of the
project to be fitted into the framework of different value
systems and molded into new attitudes and outlooks at a higher
level of political endeavor where new structures and institutions
can be designed. However, to be reached, these ends require means
that are both more ambitious and more sophisticated than those to
be used in the project --e.g., policy analyses and design, trade-
off calculations, deontic logic applications, the construction of
alternative systems, long-term dynamic simulations with multiple
variables, etc.
Through such means a normative as well as an empirical
delineation of the future states of the world system might be
obtained together with the details of the new framework of
integrated policies, institutions, and organizations that are
necessary to render such a new world system operational.

e} Organization
The overall organization of the project is described below
in its relationship to the envisaged structure of the Club of
Rome.

29
A. The aims of the Club of_Rome have already been noted in
relation to the project being considered here. Its general
objectives and constitution are described in Section Three
(Annex I).
B. The project falls directly under the cognizance of the
Executive Committee of the Club of Rome. During the
latter's formative stage an Executive Committee has been
formed ad hoc whose membership will be found in Section
Three (Annex III).
C. The Executive Committee has asked the Institut Battelle at
Geneva to provide administrative support and act as
managing agency for the project. This request having
received favor- able response from the Battelle
management, it was decided that Battelle's Geneva Centre
de Recherche would be providing hospitality and facilities
for the Work Group that will be engaged in carrying out
the project.
D. The Executive Committee has asked Prof. Hasan Ozbekhan to
undertake the overall direction of the project and the
operational responsibility for the Work Group. Currently,
the Work Group itself is visualized as consisting of some

30
 ten senior scientists from various national backgrounds,
supported by a team of junior researchers. Further details
concerning the Work Group will be found in Section Three
(Annex IV).
E. The aid of a number of Consultants will be solicited to -
support the Director of the project. These consultants
should be authorities in various fields that pertain to
the project in its generality.

The principal role of the consultants will be to offer new

ideas and substantive verification from the viewpoint of
disciplinary approaches whenever necessary.

A general idea of the planned competence of this

consulting group will be found in Section Three (Annex V).

3. COST AND DURATION

It is expected that the project as described can be realized
within a budget of $900,000 and that its duration would be
approximately of 15 months. Therefore if the work can be started
sometime during the summer of 1970 it should be completed by the
end of 1971.

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31
 SECTION TWO

CONCEPTUAL FRAME AND WORK PROCEDURES

1
 CONCEPTUAL FRAME AND WORK PROCEDURES

----------

INTRODUCTION

1. THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

The purpose of the present section is to provide an overall

impression of how the work described heretofore might be
conducted, and to discuss insofar as is possible at this early
stage some methods and techniques of approach that are
tentatively being considered.

No firm and unequivocal commitment to a given methodology

can be made at this time. The problematique --i.e., the subject
to be addressed --that was outlined is extremely complex and must
be approached by way of a unifying framework of concepts that
will afford it a solid methodological basis. The chosen approach
itself needs in some sense to be an invention closely and
specifically tailored to fit the needs of the subject.

Viewed in this light, it becomes evident that the work

must be conducted not merely as if it were a straightforward
investigation into known facts but rather as an effort (1) to
uncover new meanings and consequence-patterns that inhere in
dynamic combinations of such facts, and (2) to shape such
meanings and consequence-patterns into new, more revealing
configurations.
To do this we need to meld together two fundamental, but
different, logical approaches:

2
1) a hypothetical-deductive system that provides us with
the tool concepts necessary to penetrate and manipulate the facts
that make up the situation surrounding us;

2) a cybernetic system by means of which we can create

alternative configurations of our findings, both so as to
make the latter clearer and to see the various behaviors of newly
defined consequences within different time frames.

This is to say that we must on the one hand build an

axiomatic, and on the other hand a plan.

Through the melding of these two approaches, it should be

feasible to examine our world-wide situation and to develop some
ideas about how it can, or ought to be changed, to accord with
the value-base of "ecological balance" that we have chosen as the
ground of our reasoning.

We should note moreover that to create such a combined

system of methods we have to take into consideration the levels
of cognition from which the problematique and its components are
perceived. Hence the Work Group (and what it represents, namely,
the Club of Rome) will enter strongly into the methodological
equation because its perceptions will be governing the work.

Having made these basic clarifications we may begin by es-

tablishing some procedural assumptions. In doing this we shall
alter the order of the above, to basic approaches and begin with
a tentative outline of the cybernetic system so that our thoughts
can be organized in a logical manner.

3
 2. TENTATIVE PLANNING CONSTRUCT

A. WORKING ASSUMPTIONS

In our attempt to design an initial and highly tentative

planning construct, we must begin by proposing certain
definitions that can also be considered as working assumptions.*

CONCEPTS DEFINITIONS

PROJECT Substantive operations undertaken by the Work Group

GOAL Results expected from the project; i.e., suggestions,

clarifications, insights, reports, impacts.

OBJECTIVE Directives concerning the goal that the Work Group

receives from the Club of Rome.

Instrumental inputs that the Work Group re ceives from

MEANS or through the Club of Rome, including information

techniques, methodo.. logies, ideas, facilities, etc.

Subject of the work; i.e., elements or components of

EVENTS the problematique

TABLE I

* The ideas that will be found throughout this whole section

derive from many sources and represent a synthesis of the
thoughts of many authors. Unfortunately neither the nature of the
document nor the circumstances in which it was written permit
individual recognition with respect to every point made.

4
 Among the foregoing concepts, the ones listed below are
operational variables that enter into the overall framework as
follows :

GOAL Output
OBJECTIVE Controlled inputs
MEANS Controlled inputs
EVENTS Uncontrolled inputs

TABLE II

The most simplified and elementary way of visualizing the

relationships that will become established among these elements
in the course of the work, is shown (Fig. I) on the next page.

It is self-evident that the nature as well as the level of

the output are entirely dependent on the nature and the level of
the relations we can establish and formulate with regard to the
inputs that will enter the system of work. Moreover, these
relations are likely to give us some indications of the methods
of approach, which might have to be used. Hence the assumptions
we have advanced will now have to be looked into somewhat more
closely.

B. CONTROLLED INPUTS

The controlled inputs we have defined are objective and

means. The precise operational meaning of these words as well as
the manner in which they interact in relation to the goal must be
determined.

Here, the first point to be made is that neither objective

nor means are fixed nor static concepts. They constantly interact
with each other, with the project --that is, the work-in-progress
--and with the subject of the work, namely, the even

5
6
7
 This interaction need not necessarily alter the direction
of the objective (i.e., the nature of the task) or the nature or
quantity of the means. But it is very likely to cause changes in
the level of goal-attainment.

This is because the time-span of the work envisaged is

something in the order of fifteen months and a learning process
will set in as soon as it starts. This, in turn, will alter the
perceptual make-up of the Working Group. This process can be
outlined as shown on the following page (Fig. 2).

There are further reasons, connected with but differing

from the learning process, that force us to consider those
differences in level that define a relationship of dependency
between output and controlled inputs. This introduces two ideas
that are fundamental both methodologically and substantively.

These ideas are:

(1) -"Futurity" or the future dimensions of the events that form

the problematique to be investigated; and
(2) -"normative analysis" in the light of which the value-base
that was chosen --i.e., ecological balance --can be made to
govern the objective of the work.

The notion of futurity enters into the argument because

there are basically two ways of looking at a situation and
perceiving its problematic features. Both are grounded in the
idea of "differential". Namely: (a) a situation represents a
problematique because some of its characteristics differ from the
characteristics of a past situation that the people involved
agree to define as non-problematic --or as "normal"; and, (b) a
situation represents a problematique because some of its
characteristics differ from the characteristics of a future
situation that the people involved agree to define as non-
problematic --or as "ideal".

8
 In either case the first step is to proceed from a general,
agreed upon, image. And, in either case, what makes agreement
possible is a shared value-base.

In the project being considered we have started from the

assumption that the problematique is both world-wide* and new in
its configuration; therefore it would be impossible to evaluate
its differentiating aspects with reference to a past situation.
Hence it was decided to establish differentials with reference to
some future state of the world-system of which the defining
value-base would be "ecological balance".

To be able to create such an image two things are

necessary: (1) an idea or vision of how events will evolve toward
the present situation is left to itself or left to evolve with a
minimum of tampering; (2) an idea or vision of how the situation
will look in the same future if it is normatively conceived in
the light of ecological balance.

It might or might not have been noticed that in the

foregoing few paragraphs the whole argument was given a somewhat
new shape merely by elaborating in a very superficial way various
points that are embedded both in the facts we must deal with and
in the general methodological philosophy we have adopted at least
for a start. Thus we have:

1. OUTCOME PARAMETERS: in the sense that the goal must deal

with "differentials" between a present state of the system
and a future state of the system.

* This feature alone would make it impossible to judge it in

terms of a shared past value-base.

9
 2. INPUT PARAMETERS: in the sense that the objectives and means
must be set at such a level so as to permit:
2.1. A forecast of the normal future state of the present
situation (logical future).
2.2. An image of the future state as can be imagined in the light
of the value-base of ecological balance (normative future).
2.3. Interim states of the objective for judging whether the
difference between 2.2. and 2.3. adds up to a meaningful
evolutionary or interim situation be identified and singled
out.
3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: which is the value-base (ecological
balance) that must be so clearly and operationally defined
that it can be used to judge any established relationships
as valid or invalid.

From these points certain new conceptions regarding the

level of dependence problem can be derived. For example, and
solely as an example, we can establish the following levels:

10
 TABLE III

LEVELS OUTPUT CONTROLLED INPUTS UNCTL. INPUTS

Goals Objectives Means Events

Forecast| Normative
________| __________
Null g O m e E
Low g 1 O 1 m 1 e 1 E 1
High g 2 O 2 m 2 e 2 E 2
Ideal g 3 O 3 m 3 e E 3
_______ _______ __________ ______ __________ _________

From an arrangement of this sort it becomes --or should

become --possible to build various models (which, basically, are
pay-off matrices) in which the combined weights of objectives and
means can be made to relate to various levels of forecast and
normatively determined future events to derive different levels
of goals.

It is in turn from such models that corresponding plans

will be constructed in which all the concepts that were listed
earlier (Table II) can be related to each other in a way that is
not arbitrary but optimizing.

The most important consideration in the structuring of

controlled inputs is the definition of "ecological balance",
which needs to be established as the governing principle of the
objective. Such a definition does not exist at present nor can
the idea itself be given any kind of operational meaning through
mere verbalization --namely, through a simple description of what
the expression might signify.

"Ecology", that is human ecology in the sense we have

described it in the first section of this document is, itself, a

11
system of extraordinary complexity comprising both individual
entities and multidimensional relationships, some of which have
network characteristics. All the component forces and phenomena
existing in such an ecology cannot be taken into consideration in
a study such as the one being envisaged. Nevertheless a series of
them that pertain with particular emphasis to those elements
problematique that will be studied has to be selected and
developed into indices, in accordance with the best methods
extant for the creation of such indicator lists. It is possible
that certain interesting ideas being explored in the USA as part
of the effort involved in creating Social Indicators might prove
useful, in building such lists.

In conjunction with this, simultaneously in fact, the

notion of "balance" will have to be reduced to operational
significance. Balance, in a system-wide human environment, is
ultimately reducible to a finite number of trade-offs. Hence what
will be required to make our objective operational is, in all
probability, a three-dimensional matrix in which the selected
ecological indicators are ascribed trade-off values not only in
terms of monetary cost but also of other vital kinds of "costs"
and kinds of "worth" pertaining to action and outcome (i.e., to
policies and results).

With such indices and matrices at hand it should become

increasingly feasible to view the model of a problematic
situation in the relatively simple form

W = f (Ii , Oi)

where

12
W = the measure of the worth of a particular action (or policy).
Ii = the input variables that control the alternative courses of action.
Oi = the extraneous, non-controlled variables, that affect
action*.

Aside from level relations and adjustments and indices that

lend operationality to the objective, the legitimacy of the

plan must also derive from its dynamic conception --namely, from
the manner in which the foregoing .~ through the system as a

whole. For it is evident that the relationships among all opera-

tional elements will be constantly changing. Hence it is
important to develop from the outset a planning construct that
recognizes and accommodates such changes while the work is going
on. The rationale for this is that the Club of Rome is not
external to the world. It too is part of the situation.
Therefore, it follows that ~ inputs must, themselves, be viewed
as feeding into the subject of the work.
Since the subject of the work is in a state of continual
flux, the work must necessarily be evolutionary and dynamic. Some
results, representing clarifications of the problematique's
components, will be obtained as the work process unfolds. In
consequence it is likely that:

(1) a feedback loop will be generated going from these

continuous interim results back to the Work Group, and change the
perception of the latter with regard to the interpretation of the
objectives to be attained;
(2) another feedback loop generated by such results will
affect the notions that the Work Group has concerning the nature
----------
* This general formulation of action variables within the
context of an entire system was developed by Dr. A.N.
Christakis and Dr. N. M. Kamrany.

13
of the output --i.e., the goal. These shifts, or renewals, in
understanding may change the perception of the Club of Rome
concerning the problematique and must therefore be viewed as a
source of new objectives as well as of new means --i.e., of new
controlled inputs.*

All these feedbacks whether taken singly or in combination

will affect the nature of the output and possibly alter it.

Recognition of these processes provides us with a

preliminary planning construct which is outlined on the next page
(Fig. 3).

Up to this point we have dealt mainly with the controlled

inputs side of the overall work plan. In the following pages we
shall deal with questions concerning uncontrolled inputs.

----------

*Moreover if such results are very important and dramatic

(which is unlikely) they will also create a feedback loop
into the situation and generate new events. But because the
probability of this is very low it need not be considered
presently. (That is the reason for that loop being shown in
broken lines in the figure on the next page.)

14
15
 C. UNCONTROLLED INPUTS

The uncontrolled inputs with which we shall concern

ourselves have been qualified as "events". Events are the
substantive elements of the situation; therefore, they describe
all the components of the problematique including what we have
called the Continuous Critical Problems.

The controlling issue with reference to events --insofar as

the proposed study is concerned --is that they must be understood
in their essence, in their structure, and in their dynamic
behavior. Hence our approach to them must be hypothetical-
deductive in character; and our aim, the creation of an
axiomatic.

This is obviously very difficult because today the

configurations of the very important events that are constantly
occurring around us are blurred. We have no precise feelings
concerning their nature, no real way of formulating ideas about
their future implications, no appropriate methods to trace the
causal connections between what we sense to be symptoms and what
might be the central illness. Linkages that were clear when our
minds operated within the framework of determinism have become
obscured and confused. Empirically we are able to describe
numerous problems-- but this approach does not really help us to
penetrate the essence of the situation. What seems needed is to
proceed, mainly, through heuristic, inventive approaches, using
almost any technique in the hope that we might sufficiently
disarrange what is obvious so as to be able to penetrate a little
further into what might be real.

16
 Once these facts have been clearly recognized and admitted
we can start by establishing a number of hypotheses, which will
underlie as well as guide the study. These hypotheses obviously
derive from many sources and represent a particular manner of
cognizing the nature of the reality that surrounds us --they are,
nevertheless, consonant with the value-base of ecological balance
we have chosen as the governing objective of the study.

1. The events to be considered are crisis-related components

of our situation.

2. In their totality these events represent a problematique.

Problematique is not defined by its component events as an
aggregation that is analogous to a "set" --in the
mathematical meaning of the term --but as a system.

3. As such, the events to be studied are in themselves and in

their attributes, dynamic, interconnected, and
interdependent and that "operate together ...in such a way
as to produce some characteristic total effect".*
4. These dynamic relationships do not appear to be either
regular or stable; they are akin rather to evolutionary
"jumps" that create imbalances throughout the system.

---------

* In this hypothesis the definitions of Hall and Fagen and

that of Allport have been paraphrased somewhat and combined.
See: A.D. Hall and R.E. Fagen.. "Definition of System" in
Modern Systems Research for the Behavioral Scientist,WW.
Buckley (ed.) Aldine Publishing Co., Chicago, 1968.
And, F.H. Allport, Theories 0 Perception and the Concept of
Structure, John Wiley and Sons, New York 1955.

17
Note: We shall assume in the study that critical events behave
approximately as shown above. Namely, there is a crisis level at
about 4 years hence beyond which most of the events we must
consider will become uncontrollable, unless they have been
deflected by newly developed corrective policies. The deflection
period must be conceived as short to be effective (l+year). The
lead-time for projects such as the present is generally set to
1-3 years. These figures represent an averaged-out consensus of
those working in Crisis Research in the USA. They were obtained
from Dr. John Platt of the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor.

18
 5. Such imbalances seem to have two major characteristics:
(a) their time-scale of occurrence is relatively short and
might be getting shorter; (b) they are, or appear to be,
a-causal inasmuch as each imbalance has impacts that
resonate throughout the system, although in varying degrees
of intensity. These characteristics will have to be
operationally probed in terms of the fundamental criteria
that apply to ecosystems:

Temporality Complementarity
Spatiality Mutual-determination
Quality Competitiveness
Quantity Synergy

6. This might suggest the presence of various kinds of

impingement effects within the system that generate new
events. These effects could be phenomena like: interface,
mismatches, intersensitivity, clusterings, overlaps,
synergies, functional dissonances, time-phase dissonances,
etc.

It is in terms of these six basic hypotheses that the study

will be conducted. The main thrust of the effort will be directed
at identifying:

1- The events" within the system --namely, the components of the

problematique.

2- The attributes" of the events --namely, the components'

functional characteristics.

19
3- The "relationships", "interconnections", and
"interdependencies" among the events and among their attributes.

4- The "characteristics total effect" that results from all the

above and that we have called the "situation".

In the course of the project the greatest emphasis will be

given to the first three points noted above, whereas point
four is to be viewed as the subject of later efforts that have
been mentioned in the opening section of this document.

III. GENERAL COMMENTS ON METHODOLOGY

It is not possible to delve deeply into the methodologies

to be used in this project because:

(1) a priori decisions about methodology might prejudice

the outlook of the Work Group to a degree that would reduce its
effort to an arbitrarily slanted, academic exercise ;

(2) although there are a number of methodological

approaches that have been evolved in recent years all of them,
almost without exception, are still highly experimental --so that
it is impossible to judge their operational worth especially in
relation to a large-scale problematique such as the one we shall
have to consider.
In the light of the above the best strategy would seem to
be that of remaining free of methodological commitments and pre-
conceptions and to choose the apposite approaches as we go along
and as the work dictates.
This obviously does not mean that the effort will be
entered into blindly. On the contrary, it means the circumstances
are such that the greatest freedom of action and flexibility of
invention must be preserved. The specific methodological field
within which we shall be able to make the needed choices is

20
large, but it can be described if we outline the project's
operational evolution, as is done in the flow chart (Fig. 5) on
the following page.
This chart shows the step-by-step development of the
project starting with the given value-base that leads on the one
hand to the creation of a normative image of the future and on
the other hand to the setting of the correct objective/means
level. From this ground (which satisfies the normative and some
of the strategic requirements to start the work) the project
proceeds to the identification of "events", namely, the
uncontrolled inputs, and advances through self-evident logical
steps to the goal.

Each of these steps will require one or more methods or

methodological approaches. Decisions with regard to such
approaches will have to be made in the course of the work. There
are, in fact, several levels of methodology that will have to be
closely consi- dered at each stage. A number of these are shown,
by way of example and illustration (in Table IV on the page 58)
as they pertain to the work in process when such work is broken
down into the three fundamental planning categories which are:
the Normative, the Strategic/and the Operational.

21
22
 As a final comment on the contents of the preceding table
it might bear repeating that the methods which will be used for
advancing the work as a whole are not yet fully known. Their
elabo- ration is itself a part of the project. For instance, it
is felt intuitively that many developments in cybernetic logic,
in multi-valued logic, in generalized logic, in meta-ethics, in
economic analysis, in coding, in structural morphology, in
biotechnics/and in many other areas of knowledge have a great
deal of relevance for the effort as a whole. Naturally, they will
be introduced into the work process whenever a need for them
becomes manifest. More- over, the present feeling is that no
single method or technique will suffice for the purpose before
us. Hence combinations that are heuristically conceived will have
to be created almost constantly, and experimented with. This
applies to the methodologies we have noted as well as to those we
have not. All these points are made once more to underline as
clearly as feasible that the project as a whole is one of
invention and that whatever comes to hand to advance it --with
the requisite intellectual validity and honesty --will be used,
by itself, in combination, or with appropriate modifications.

IV. MODEL OF WORK PROCESS AS PRESENTLY ENVISAGED

Having outlined the manner in which at present we intend to

deal with controlled and uncontrolled inputs that are part of
the structure of the project as well as work process, we can now
complete the model that is descriptive of the whole insofar as we
are able to visualize it at this time.

This model is envisioned as a rather simple cybernetic

system in which the types of inputs we have discussed are

23
transformed into outputs that are consonant with the objectives
of the Club of Rome, as these objectives were set down in the
first section of this document.

Our views of the overall work process are now much clearer,
as can be seen in the general model provided on the next page
(Fig.6). Into this model we have further introduced an indication
of our expectations beyond the execution of the project itself.
This was done solely to show how the total idea that inspired the
Club of Rome might be viewed in its unfolding during and after
the assumed successful conclusion of this particular project. It
is in this sense that the prospective possibilities shown below
the broken line that divides the diagram ought to be interpreted.

Ob. 1. The prime objectives ascribed to the project by the Club

of Rome.

Ob. 2 First changes in Ob. 1 as a result of interim findings by

the Work Group.

Ob. 3 Final changes in Ob. 1 as a result of the definition and

configuration of the Problematique.

Changes in Ob. 1, Ob. 2, Ob. 3 result in firm objectives (0) and

required means (M).

M Means provided by the Club of Rome to the Project.

E Situation existing in world system as perceived by Project.

E The uncontrolled inputs from the Problematique on which

Project will work.
E Adjustments in the perception of the Problematique as a
result of its definition and configuration.

24
25
Goals Expected outputs from the definition and configuration of
the Problematique.

G.l Changes affecting perception of the Club of Rome in expected

outputs as a result of interim attainment of Goals.

These will be expressed in the new formulation of firm

objectives (0) and required Means (M).

G.2 Minor possible impacts of interim outputs on World System --

affecting E and El.

G.3 If World Forum materializes and continues work; new

perceptions will be fed into World System.

G.4 If the work of the World Forum results in new policy

structures, World System will be affected.

G.5 Similarly perceptions of the Club of Rome will change.

G.3 and G.4 are viewed as the major "change" agents.

26
SECTION THREE

ANNEXES

27
 ANNEX I

THE CLUB OF ROME

28
 ANNEX I

The Club of Rome was started following a meeting convened

in Rome in April 1968 by the Giovanni Agnelli Foundation and the
National Academy of Lincei to discuss new approaches to the
problems of world society. At the end of this meeting a number of
those present, increasingly concerned about the symptoms of
breakdown of our society that are appearing simultaneously with
higher levels of prosperity and the ever-quickening application
of new technology, decided to continue to work together, and
called their group "The Club of Rome" after the city of its
origin.

The Club of Rome is an informal, multinational, non-

political group of scientists, economists, planners, educators,
and business leaders. It is non-political in the sense that its
members are not involved in current political decisions and that
it has not itself any ideological or national political
commitments. Its vocation is the good of mankind --which in its
opinion subsumes also the good of any nation or people in a world
that is rapidly emerging as a whole, integrated system. It
believes that a rethinking, rediscovery, and reformulation of
values consonant with the realities of our time is needed; that
broad goals for man and society must be defined; that a new set
of institutions and instrumentalities is required to conduct
human affairs adequately; and that to organize human society at
this higher level we must first understand the present
exceptionally dynamic and dangerous world situation and the kind
of futures that may eventuate from it. Its overall objectives
were thus formulated as follows:

"(a) To contribute toward an understanding of the problems

of modern society considered as an ensemble, and to
the analysis of the dynamics, interdependencies,
interactions, and overlappings that characterize this

29
 ensemble, concentrating particularly on those aspects
that concern all or large sections of mankind;

(b) To heighten the awareness that this complex of

tangled, changing, and difficult problems constitutes,
over and above all political, racial or economic
frontiers, an unprecedented threat to all peoples, and
must therefore be attacked by the multinational and
transnational mobilizing of human and material
resources;

"(c) To make the results of these studies and reflections

known to public opinion, in scientific, intellectual,
and political circles, and to centers of decision at
all levels, in order to influence to the utmost extent
the conduct of the world's affairs in a more rational
and human way.

To carry out this design, the Club of Rome has to spread

its action in various directions, including the carrying out of
studies and research as indicated in the present Proposal. So
far, it has established a number of contacts with key people in
Ottawa, Moscow, Washington, Tokyo, Buenos Aires, Stockholm,
Berne, Vienna, and other capitals, as well as in international
organizations; and it is expected that this activity will be
continued also during the execution of the project herein.

The Club of Rome was incorporated on March 1970 in Geneva

as a non-profit private association under the Swiss Civil Code.
Its Secretariat is in Rome; and representatives or offices will
be established in various parts of the world, the first two being
in Geneva c/o the Institut Battelle and in Tokyo c/o the Japan
Techno-Economics Society. By its Statutes, its membership is
limited. At present, there are (25) ordinary members and the
total number envisaged is 60. New members are co-opted with the
approval of the Executive Committee.

30
 ANNEX II

THE IDEA OF A WORLD FORUM

31
 ANNEX II

The present project, as emphasized in the proposal,

constitutes but a stepping stone which, it is hoped, will lead to
further, more elaborate, in-depth studies based on the
preliminary morphology of the problematique that the project will
endeavor to construct. These in-depth studies cannot be attempted
within the framework of the Club of Rome. Such an undertaking
requires anew form of cooperative effort among industrialized
countries. The Club of Rome tentatively advances the idea of a
World Forum as the under-pinning of this effort. This idea should
not be understood as a rigid, fixed, or sine qua non prescript
for future effort, but as the subjective formulation of what the
Club of Rome feels would be an adequate framework for a profound
and action-oriented study of the predicament of mankind.

As envisaged, the World Forum would be created by the

governments of industrialized countries through an act of
political will. The direct involvement and responsibility of
governments in this venture seems essential, for policy
challenges of a world-wide nature can no longer be met unless
they are integrated with policy considerations of a regional or
national character. The Club of Rome recognizes that one of its
basic tasks is to act as a catalyst in bringing about such acts
of political will. To this end, contacts have been made with
international organizations as well as with governments whose
positive responses are considered vital to the initiation and the
carrying out of a study program under the aegis of a World Forum.
The Club of Rome has also accepted as its responsibility the need
to provide a rationale for structuring the work of the World
Forum, and to offer it a suitable body of methodology as well as

32
tentative models of mankind's dynamic but unstable situation. It
is to meet this particular responsibility that the accompanying
project has been proposed.

The conception of a World Forum cannot be elaborated in

full detail at this juncture. That would be the initial task of
those governments who engage jointly in the effort to create such
a Forum. However, in line with current thinking in the Club of
Rome, the World Forum might be conceived as an ad hoc
organization, separate from any other agency and established with
the sole purpose of executing in-depth studies of the various
critical aspects of the human situation. It should be kept slim,
flexible, and adaptive to changing needs. It is likely that the
period of its duration should be limited, say from three to five
years.

Since it is hardly possible that the necessary scientific

brain-power could be marshaled and shaped into inter-disciplinary
teams for a temporary assignment of such magnitude, it would be
more feasible to set up an effective method of organizing and
managing inputs that could be obtained mainly from the
intellectual resources now available in "think groups",
consulting firms, research institutes, academic institutions,
industry, etc.

A three-fold multi-national organization might be

envisioned that would consist of:

An International Board of perhaps 10 to 12 members of the

highest international repute to work full-time at the of
the World Forum, aided by a small administrative staff.

A flexible arrangement of scientific panels and workshops,

33
 to guide the work of the various groups undertaking
differing but consistent patterns of individual study, and
to provide the "fine-structure" of the rationale; such
scientific panels and workshops might operate in an
intermittent way and convene at the seat of the World
Forum or elsewhere according to need; members would be
selected from scientists of renown who would be able to
devote a large fraction of their energy and time to this
task;

A flexible group of external contractors, ranging from

individual experts to large inter-disciplinary research
institutes and academic centers, to whom specific tasks
would be assigned.

The thrust of the World Forum study would be directed to

creating the elements of a world policy and to devising means for
its subsequent enaction in the form of new, world institutions
and their corresponding instrumentalities. The working out of
operational plans having world scope might hopefully follow.
However, the principal goal of the World Forum study, as the Club
of Rome sees it, would be to convey to policy-makers and to the
public at large a dramatic "state-of-the-world" message supported
by proposed policy responses. In other words, it would serve to
clarify our fears and give focus and direction to our hopes. This
might in turn give rise to a massive public prise de conscience
that would pave the way to action by enlightened governments and
world leaders.

34
 ANNEX III

THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

35
 ANNEX III

The Executive Committee is in the process of being formed,

hence a listing of its members cannot be given at this time. Such
a listing will be communicated to the full membership of the Club
of Rome as soon as possible.

36
 ANNEX IV

THE WORK GROUP

37
 ANNEX IV

It is tentatively felt at this juncture that the effort

described in this document will require a Work Group of Senior
Scientists and a Support Team of Junior Researchers.

The competences envisaged as necessary are the following:

-1 project director
-3 planners with general system analysis and
cybernetics backgrounds
-1 mathematician specialized in topology
-1 senior statistician with operations research
background
-2 senior computer programmers
-1 social scientist with experience in morphological
analysis
-1 economist with knowledge of general systems theory
-1 political scientist with experience in
international relations.

The team of junior researchers will come mainly from the

areas of computer programming, logic systems, data retrieval,
file composition, formatting, etc. It is also one of the aims of
the Club of Rome that through exposure to work with the main task
force, the team of junior researchers will undergo an intense
educational and formative experience.

It is expected that the work can easily be handled by

available computer capacity, i.e. Honeywell 632 (Battelle} or CDC
3800 (Geneva University} .

38
 ANNEX V

CONSULTANTS

39
 ANNEX V

It is deemed to be of the greatest importance that a

strong roster of Consultants be created to support the Work Group
during the course of the project.

At this stage two categories of consultants are being

contemplated:

1. Specific individuals capable of providing knowledge and

skills in various disciplines such as, for instance:
Political Science, Law, Economics, Sociology, the Hard
Sciences, Life Sciences, Ethics, Anthropology, Psychology,
Education, etc.

2. World leaders in various cultural fields --Religion, the

Arts and Humanities, etc. --who will be consulted as to
their opinions, ideas, and views.

Geneva, March 13. 1970 H0/myg/ns

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