The Beginning and The End
The Beginning and The End
The Beginning and The End
Clment Vidal
123
THE FRONTIERS COLLECTION
Series editors
Avshalom C. Elitzur
Universit Grenoble I Centre quation, Labo. Verimag, Gires, France
e-mail: [email protected]
Laura Mersini-Houghton
Department of Physics & Astronomy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill,
North Carolina, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
T. Padmanabhan
Inter University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUC),
Pune University Campus, Pune, India
e-mail: [email protected]
Maximilian Schlosshauer
Institute for Quantum Optics and Quantum Information Austrian Academy of
Sciences, Portland, Oregon, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
Mark P. Silverman
Department of Physics, Trinity College, Hartford, Connecticut, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
Jack A. Tuszynski
Department of Physics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
e-mail: [email protected]
Rdiger Vaas
University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany
e-mail: [email protected]
Series editors
A. C. Elitzur L. Mersini-Houghton T. Padmanabhan
M. Schlosshauer M. P. Silverman J. A. Tuszynski R. Vaas
The books in this collection are devoted to challenging and open problems at the
forefront of modern science, including related philosophical debates. In contrast to
typical research monographs, however, they strive to present their topics in a
manner accessible also to scientifically literate non-specialists wishing to gain
insight into the deeper implications and fascinating questions involved. Taken as a
whole, the series reflects the need for a fundamental and interdisciplinary approach
to modern science. Furthermore, it is intended to encourage active scientists in all
areas to ponder over important and perhaps controversial issues beyond their own
speciality. Extending from quantum physics and relativity to entropy, conscious-
ness and complex systemsthe Frontiers Collection will inspire readers to push
back the frontiers of their own knowledge.
For a full list of published titles, please see back of book or springer.com/series/5342
Clment Vidal
THE BEGINNING
AND THE END
The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological
Perspective
123
Clment Vidal
Centrum Leo Apostel
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Brussels
Belgium
v
To every human, artificial, or extraterrestrial
intelligence in this universe
Foreword by Steven J. Dick
We live in a universe expansive in space and time, the result of 13.8 billion years
of cosmic evolution that has yielded ever more subtle and complex forms. On that
planet we call Earth those forms include life and mind, mind that now turns its
gaze back onto the universe itself. We contemplate the cosmos with awe and ask
the question of questions: how widespread is life in the universe? The new science
of astrobiology daily offers new insights into this question, including exoplanets
galore, but as yet no answer to the riddle of life itself. Meanwhile, whether life is
rare or common, the cosmic perspective is the unavoidable framework within
which the history of our planet and the meaning of our lives must be explored.
That perspectivethe Master Narrative of the Universe, or Genesis for the Third
Millennium, as it has also been calledis the framework adopted in this scintil-
lating book full of new ideas. It is a framework I enthusiastically endorse.
But how to explore The Meaning of Life in a Cosmological Perspective? The
mind reels, but Vidal argues that the search begins with a comprehensive and
coherent worldview, a more robust version of the sometimes inconsistent world-
views we all hold whether we know it or not. The construction of worldviews and
their influence on our thinking are deep philosophical problems, and the first part
of the book discusses the nature of worldviews in detail. Not only does the author
examine religious, scientific and philosophical worldviews, he also proposes cri-
teria for evaluating which are best. This original and enlightening exercise results
for him in a worldview that is fundamentally cosmological, though with philo-
sophical, ethical, and religious implications. As the cosmologist G. F. R. Ellis has
noted, philosophical choices necessarily underlie all cosmologies, and unexamined
philosophical standpoints are still philosophical standpoints. Vidal, however, is not
guilty of unexamined assumptions; he has systematically examined the possibili-
ties, and his worldview places life and intelligence at the center of cosmology.
This evaluation of worldviews would be a significant contribution in itself, but
Vidal is only getting started. In elaborating his worldview, and answering the basic
questions about origins, life and mind, he takes up the entangled problems of fine-
tuning and free parameters in the universe. These problems have been much
discussed in the last few decades, as scientists and philosophers have asked why
ix
x Foreword by Steven J. Dick
boldness and creativity of youth. But not unbridled boldness. As the author and
others have emphasized, speculation is an integral part of science, more often
going under the name of hypothesis, and Vidal makes a convincing case that in
this volume his method is scientific and philosophical speculation rather than
unchecked fictional speculation. Faced with the option of saying nothing about the
great questions he undertakes, or carefully saying something, Vidal chooses the
latter. We are the better for it.
Steven J. Dick
Baruch S. Blumberg NASA/Library
of Congress Chair in Astrobiology
Former NASA Chief Historian
Preface: Psychiatry and Cosmological
Speculation
After high school, when I told my aunt I wanted to study philosophy at university,
she looked at me sympathetically and said: Have you considered consulting a
psychiatrist? They can be very helpful, you know. I was shocked. What did the
philosophical pursuit to understand humanity and the cosmos have to do with
psychic health? Maybe she had confused philosophy with psychology. Or maybe
she thought that studying philosophy leads nowhere socially or professionally and
that I was simply experiencing a temporary existential crisis. Seeing a psychiatrist
would put me back on the right social track.
But maybe she was right after all. Maybe asking fundamental and philosophical
questions is an illness. In that case I am proud to be ill. Even more, my hope is that
it is highly contagious, and that you, my reader, will want to pursue even further
the intellectual journey I will now share with you. But first, a word of caution.
I would like to warn my readers that this work contains cosmological specu-
lations.1 The speculations I discuss are cosmological because they stretch over
billions of years and billions of light years. How can we legitimate such specu-
lations? Part I constitutes one third of this work and is dedicated to a broad study
of the philosophical method. I argue that a major aim of philosophy is to construct
comprehensive and coherent worldviews. Constructing such worldviews requires
one to answer big questions, such as: Where do we come from? Where are we
going? Are we alone in the universe? Motivated by our existential need to answer
such big questions, we naturally tend to speculate. But is such an endeavor in
striking contradiction to the rigor of the scientific enterprise? Is it just fantasy?
Certainly not! Speculating does not mean being unscientific. On the contrary, it
means identifying and relying on the most fundamental scientific theories and
principles, and then extrapolating them. In my speculations, mostly contained in
Part III, I have done my best to focus on the most robust and general scientific
theories, such as principles of relativity theories, thermodynamics, systems theory,
evolution, and theoretical computer science or logic.
1
To make this warning explicit, my Ph.D. at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) was defended
with the subtitle Cosmological Speculation and the Meaning of Life, instead of The Meaning
of Life in a Cosmological Perspective.
xiii
xiv Preface: Psychiatry and Cosmological Speculation
In the last few years, I have had the chance to interact with very inspiring,
encouraging, and unconventional thinkers. First and foremost, I express my great
appreciation for the atmosphere of free inquiry here at the Free University of
Brussels (Vrije Universiteit Brussel, VUB). I know that previous generations have
sustained tremendous efforts to maintain the ideals of the enlightenment.
I am grateful to the transdisciplinary research Center Leo Apostel (CLEA), the
Evolution, Complexity, and Cognition group (ECCO), and the Global Brain
Institute (GBI) for providing me with a unique environment to conduct free
interdisciplinary thinking. In CLEA, I thank Diederick Aerts for his continuous
support, encouragement, and advice, and his almost endless passion for discus-
sions; Jan Broekaert for being open minded enough to listen and try to understand
my sometimes bold new theories and hypotheses; Alexander Riegler for discus-
sions about constructivism; Karin Verelst for fascinating discussions about infinity
and fractals; and Karen De Looze for her insights into integral theory as well as her
conceptions of death and immortality. I also thank Valrie Aucouturier, Sandro
Sozzo, Gert Goeminne, Ellen van Keer, Nicole Note, Pieter Meurs, and Wim Van
Dale for various suggestions and discussions.
I thank the ECCO members Evo Busseniers, Petter Braathen, yvind Vada,
Iavor Kostov, Nagarjuna G., Jan Bernheim, Marios Kyriazis, Tanguy Coenen,
Marc Goldchstein, Tor Eigil Hodne, Nathalie Gontier, and Shwetambara
Sabharwal. I am grateful to Carlos Gershenson for discussions about immortality,
artificial life, and the philosophy of self-organization; to Mark Martin for his
passionate defense of rationality and evolutionary theory; to Klaas Chielsen for
seeing the intersection of selection criteria in memetics and in philosophy, which
enabled me to develop metaphilosophical criteria for the comparison of world-
views (in Sect. 2.2); to Piet Holbrouck for introducing me to the basics of the
theory of constraints, which enthused me enough to draw the argumentative maps
of the book (in Appendix II); to Marko Rodriguez for stimulating discussions and
inspiring feedback; to Paul Iliano for discussions about worldviews and for helping
me to find a personal vision, providing people a meaning of life, in harmony with
cosmic evolution; to Jon Echanove for both warm and challenging discussions; to
Viktoras Veitas for defending all positions on issues; to David R. Weinbaum
(Weaver) for always offering enlightening new perspectives; and to John Stewart
xvii
xviii Acknowledgments
become more and more relevant for cosmology, a vision that I largely elaborated
through the idea of artificial cosmogenesis in Chaps. 6 and 7; William F. Harms;
Hans Kuijper; John McCrone; Robert L. Oldershaw; Cecilia Abadie; Arnaud J.
Blanchard for his precious help; Atanu Chatterjee; and Stefan Pernar.
I give special thanks to all active participants on the mailing list EDU-Talk2
who debate fundamental issues in an academic and interdisciplinary atmosphere.
Researchers interested in the topics of this book (and others) are welcome to join
the Evo Devo Universe research community.
I thank Alain Prochiantz for his early support in organizing the first interna-
tional conference on the evolution and development of the universe (Vidal et al.
2009). I thank Laurent Nottale for his enthusiasm, time, and patience in explaining
some implications of scale relativity theory. I am happy to see this theory of fractal
space-time more and more recognized as a promising basis for unifying quantum
mechanics and general relativity. I am also glad he agreed to talk with Jean
Chaline and Pierre Grou at the Workshop on Scale Relativity: Universe, Life,
Societies3 that I organized in Brussels. I also thank Jean Chaline for his stimulating
books and explanations about biological evolution. I thank Bernard Goossens for
sharing his visionary interest in scale relativity, without which this workshop could
not have happened.
I thank Tobias Kerzenmacher, Christophe Portier, Marc Megaides, Martin
Monperrus, Marc Sylvestre, and David Brin for insightful discussions.
I am pleased to thank David Allen for creating the action management method
Getting Things Done without which I would never have had the courage to take
up such a big project as co-organizing an international conference and editing the
proceedings (Vidal et al. 2009). I also co-wrote an academic paper further
explaining why the method works so well (Heylighen and Vidal 2008).
I am grateful to Alain Jorissen for his patience in answering my sometimes
naive, sometimes strange questions about our singular universe and its binary stars;
to Jason Cawley for criticisms and discussions; to Tim Swanson for enthusiastic
speculative discussions; to Edgar Gunzig for his early support; to Dominique
Lambert for stimulating discussions; to Claudio Maccone for discussions on
extreme possibilities of gravitational lensing and their implications for SETI; to
Nicholas Rescher for his encouragements and interest in my philosophical work;
and to Eric J. Chaisson for challenging discussions.
I warmly thank the anonymous referees who accepted or rejected my papers, in
either case providing very valuable feedback. I thank those who took the time to
correct and improve my English: Gabrielle Bossy, Hans Smet, Otto Bohlmann,
Charles Baden-Fuller, Luke Lloyd, Steve Sachoff, Andrew Ross, and Elizabeth
Moliere. I thank Angela Lahee for her enthusiasm, patience, and editorial
professionalism.
2
http://evodevouniverse.com/wiki/EDU-Talk_subscription_form
3
http://ecco.vub.ac.be/?q=node/114
xx Acknowledgments
I warmly thank John Smart for being such an amazing colleague and friend, for
being the co-founder with me of the Evo Devo Universe community, for being a
rare polymath, never short of amazing and stimulating ideas. I owe him inspiration
on many aspects of this book, such as his contagious passion for astrobiology or
the general evolutionary developmental view on the universe. I am also glad we
identified together the Barrow scale of civilizational development (Sect. 9.2.2).
My immense gratitude goes to my Ph.D. supervisor Francis Heylighen for
having been and still being an unfailing intellectual mentor. I am grateful that he
trusted me to tackle big cosmological questions despite the fact that I had no
formal background in theoretical physics. After one master in philosophy, another
one in logic, and a third in cognitive sciences, I thought I had at last built up a solid
intellectual background, but I was wrong. Learning in depth with Francis
Heylighen about evolution, cybernetics, and complexity sciences led me to an
intellectual rebirth. I felt almost angry to have learned such powerful yet simple
concepts so late in my intellectual life. In particular, I hope the basics of cyber-
netics and systems theory will soon be taught early in schools.
I warmly thank my parents for offering me that slice of space-time-energy-
complexity we call life, through their biological and cultural legacy. Very special
thanks go to my father, for his immense support, patience, and trust.
Contents
xxi
xxii Contents
10.3.3
Developmental Values for Humans. . . . .......... 289
10.3.4
Developmental Values for Societies . . . .......... 292
10.3.5
Universal Thermodynamic Evolutionary
Developmental Values? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
10.4 Voyage to Five Immortalities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
10.4.1 Spiritual Immortality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
10.4.2 Individual Immortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
10.4.3 Creative Immortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
10.4.4 Evolutionary Immortality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
10.4.5 Cosmological Immortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
Open Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375
Abstract
Where does it all come from? Where are we going? Are we alone in the universe?
What is good and what is evil? The scientific narrative of cosmic evolution
demands that we tackle such big questions with a cosmological perspective.
I tackle the first question in Chaps. 46; the second in Chaps. 7 and 8; the third in
Chap. 9; and the fourth in Chap. 10. But how do we start to answer such questions
wisely? Doing so requires a methodological discipline that mixes philosophical
and scientific approaches.
In Chap. 1, I elaborate the concept of worldview, which is defined by our
answers to the big questions. I argue that we should aim at constructing com-
prehensive and coherent worldviews. In Chap. 2, I develop criteria and tests to
assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of different worldviews. In Chap. 3,
I apply those methodological insights to religious, scientific, and philosophical
worldviews.
In Chap. 4, I identify seven fundamental challenges to any ultimate explanation
of the origin of the universe: epistemological, metaphysical, thermodynamic,
causal, infinity, free parameters, and fine-tuning. I then analyze the question of the
origin of the universe upside down and ask: What are the origins of our cognitive
need to find an explanation of this origin? I conclude that our explanations tend
toward two cognitive attractors, the point and the cycle. In Chap. 5, I focus on the
free parameters issue, namely that there are free parameters in the standard model
of particle physics and in cosmological models, which in principle can be assigned
any value. I analyze the issue within physical, mathematical, computational, and
biological frameworks.
In Chap. 6, I analyze the fine-tuning issue in depth, i.e. the claim that those free
parameters are further fine-tuned for the emergence of complexity. I debunk
various physical, probabilistic, and logical fallacies associated with this issue, and
I distinguish it from the closely related issues of free parameters, parameter sen-
sitivity, metaphysics, anthropic principles, observational selection effects, teleol-
ogy, and theology. I conclude that fine-tuning is a conjecture, and that to make
progress we need to study how common our universe is compared to other possible
universes. This study opens a research endeavor that I call artificial cosmogenesis.
Inspired by Drakes equation in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI),
I extend this equation to the cosmic evolution equation, in order to study the
robustness of the emergence of complexity in our universe, and whether or to what
xxvii
xxviii Abstract
The great philosophers have always been able to clear away the complexities and see
simple distinctionssimple once they are stated, vastly difficult before. If we are to follow
them we too must be childishly simple in our questionsand maturely wise in our replies.
Where does it all come from? It takes nothing less than a synthesis of modern
science to answer this childish question. In a nutshell, modern science gives us the
following story of our past. Everything started with a Big Bang, about 13.8 billion
years ago (Planck Collaboration 2013). As the universe expanded and cooled
down, atoms formed and stars clumped into galaxies and clusters of galaxies. On a
tiny solid planet, around an average star, some special conditions allowed the self-
organization of molecules, and the first cell was born. Life started. Later,
vegetation used the radiation of the Sun and contributed to the creation of an
atmosphere. Gradually, more and more complex organisms emerged, competed,
and cooperated. Nowadays, human cities, societies, and technologies are growing
rapidly.
That was our past. What about our future? Where are we going? Of course, we
haveby definitionno data about the future. However, we do have physical
scientific theories, which are temporally symmetrical, and it is thus legitimate to
apply them not only to the past but also to the future.
Astrophysicists tell us that in about 5 billion years, our solar system will end, with
our Sun turning into a red giant star, making Earths surface much too hot for the
continuation of life as we know it. The solution then appears to be easy: migration.
However, even if our descendants do colonize other solar systems, all the stars in all
the galaxies will ultimately die. Once stars have converted the available supply of
hydrogen into heavier elements, new star formation will come to an end. In fact, the
problem is even worse. It is calculated that even very massive objects such as black
holes will evaporate (see e.g. Adams and Laughlin 1997). The second law of
thermodynamics, one of the most robust laws of physics, states that the disorder or
entropy of an isolated system can only increase. Eddington (1928) applied the law to
the universe as a whole and concluded that our universe is doomed to perish in a heat
death. Modern cosmology confirms that in the long-term future we will need to deal
with a cosmic doom scenario such as heat death.
xxix
xxx Introduction
What do these insights about our past and future imply for the meaning of life,
intelligence, and humans in the universe? Most people I talk to, both colleagues
and friends, think it is too early to think about such a long-term issue as cosmic
doom. I strongly disagree. If it is too early now, when are we to start worrying
about the far future? When will be a good time to take responsibility?
Humans are insignificant in terms of the space they occupy in the universe. The
Earth is ridiculously small compared to the universe. It is a tiny planet orbiting a
common star, in a galaxy composed of billions of stars. And we can see billions of
galaxies. Humans are also insignificant in terms of universal time. This is
illustrated by Carl Sagans (1977) cosmic calendar, in which the *14 billion year
lifespan of the universe is compressed into one year. One second in that cosmic
calendar corresponds to some 500 years in our Western calendar. Then, the first
humans would appear on December 31, the very last day of the cosmic calendar,
very late, at about 10.30 pm. Our spatiotemporal extension is thus ridiculously
small seen from a cosmological perspective. To sum up, the fact that in a single,
tiny cosmic pocket, life and intelligence very recently appeared seems an accident
without any significance except that we are doomed to extinction.
Is this gloomy story true? Is it correct in all its aspects? Is it possible that it
misses some important aspects of cosmic evolution? My aim is to show you that
this story is wrong. Not so much in its scientific content, but in its conclusions and
limited perspective. In this book, I will tell you a very different story, one in which
intelligence and complexity are keys to unlock the universes mysteries.
The questions of the beginning and the end of the universe are extremely
difficult, because they require the utmost extrapolation of scientific models, whose
results then become highly uncertain. Additionally, scientific models cannot
directly answer such metaphysical questions as: Why is there something rather
than nothing? Was there a beginning of the universe? Is our universe fine-tuned for
life? What is the meaning and future of life in a cosmological perspective?
When dealing with such difficult questions, we have to acknowledge the limits
of the scientific enterprise. For example, regarding the ultimate origin, there are
observational limits to the early universe, i.e. data we will never get. Neither
science nor philosophy will bring us certain answers, and this is an invitation to
humility, honesty, and care when approaching those ultimate questions in
cosmology (see e.g. Ellis 2007a, 1259; Vaas 2003, Sect. 7). This does not mean
that science wont come up with an answer later. Scientific progress has often
surprised us in the past, and there is no reason for it not to continue to do so.
Compared to those on the early universe, there are surprisingly few works on
the ultimate future of the universe. Yet mysteries about our far future are as
important and fascinating to explore as the ones about our past. Classic cosmic
doom scenarios presuppose that intelligence is and will remain insignificant. But
this seems to ignore past cosmic evolution, which shows an increase of
complexity, from galaxies, solar systems, and life to mind, intelligence, society,
science, and technology. What if intelligence could have a major impact on cosmic
Introduction xxxi
the questions wisely, we shall inquire into many intricate theories and discussions,
but our aim will always be to answer those simple questions. I plan to balance this
apparently overweening ambition with an appeal to considered conclusions
through a preliminary study of the philosophical method in Part I.
The organization of this book is simple. Part I deals with the philosophical
method, Part II with the beginning of the universe, and Part III with intelligence in
the far-future universe. By weaving insights in these three parts, we can find and
refine a meaning of life in a cosmological perspective. Both the beginning and the
end are extreme extrapolations, and it makes sense to treat them together, as we
will face similar problems and solutions in exploring them.
What is philosophy? This work has a synthetic and speculative character. It is
an attempt to answer some of the deepest philosophical questions by constructing a
coherent and comprehensive worldview. In Part I, we inquire about the
philosophical method, and show that there is an existential need to answer the
big questions. In Chap. 1, we explore the richness and intricacy of philosophy as a
discipline, through six dimensions, and I elaborate the concept of a worldview
defined by our answers to the big questions. In Chap. 2, I develop criteria and tests
to assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of different worldviews. In Chap. 3,
I apply those methodological insights to religious, scientific, and philosophical
worldviews. The first step toward answering the naive big questions is to refor-
mulate them in a more sophisticated scientific and philosophical manner. This will
be a significant aspect of Parts II and III.
Where does it all come from? In Part II, we examine in three steps the
problem of the ultimate origin of the cosmos. Firstly, in Chap. 4, we deal with our
cognitive need for origins. We ask: What is a cognitively satisfying answer to the
question of the origin of the universe? In Chap. 5, we then focus on the existence
of free parameters in physical and cosmological models. The problem is that such
free parameters are not specified within our theories, yet all particle physics and
cosmological models have them. We explore them with a variety of approaches:
physical, mathematical, computational, and biological. These free parameters need
to be inserted by hand into our models. But hand-insertion doesnt necessarily
imply fine-tuning. We thus discuss, in Chap. 6, whether or not those free
parameters are fine-tuned. More precisely, the fine-tuning of the universe is a
highly confusing and controversial issue at the intersection of physics, philosophy,
and theology. It is peppered with physical and probabilistic fallacies, mixed up
with other issues (e.g. free parameters, parameter sensitivity, metaphysics,
observation selection effects, anthropic principles, teleology, or theology), and
seldom well defined. To clarify the debate, we first debunk various fine-tuning
fallacies. We then ask: What is the fine-tuning for? Chemistry? Life? Intelligence?
To clarify these different options, we introduce a Drake-like cosmic evolution
equation, defining different cosmic outcomes we want to focus on. We then review
classical and evolutionary explanations in view of our new framework. We con-
clude that to progress scientifically on the issue we need to explore the space of
possible universes with the help of computer simulations. This involves simulating
Introduction xxxiii
not only our universe but also other possible universes, within the nascent field of
artificial cosmogenesis.
Where are we going? In Part III, Chap. 7, we explore the future of scientific
simulations, and further substantiate the need to pursue artificial cosmogenesis. In
Chap. 8, we discuss cosmological selection and develop a wide-ranging philo-
sophical scenario, called cosmological artificial selection (CAS), which covers the
origin and future of the universe with a role for intelligence. Surprisingly, CAS
leads to the idea that by better understanding our ultimate future we will better
understand our ultimate origin. The two may well be deeply intertwined.
There is great uncertainty regarding two main trends in cosmic evolution. The
one trend is toward more disorder or entropy, the other toward more complexity.
Which one will prevail in the long term? If the first prevails, it will be our end in
the universe. But if the second trend prevails, there is hope to construct a meaning
of life in harmony with the increase of complexity in cosmic evolution.
Are we alone in the universe? Predicting the long-term future of humanity,
meaning its fate in thousands, millions, or billions of years, is a notoriously
difficult task, often deemed impossible. But there is a workaround. The idea is to
look at how other civilizations might have developed their complexity in the
universe. In Chap. 9, we thus look for very advanced civilizations in the universe,
and, to my great surprise and awe, my theoretical reasoning leads me to the
conclusion that we might already have spotted very advanced extraterrestrials!
What is good and what is evil? What are the ultimate values for intelligent
life? Here ultimate values are valid not only at all times, both past and future, but
also in all places in the universe. In Chap. 10, we enquire about values derived
from a cosmological perspective. We develop a cosmological ethics and apply the
framework to the idea of immortality, which is a constant longing in human
cultures. We survey five kinds of immortality and how they relate to the definition
of the self. We argue that the ultimate good is the infinite continuation of the
evolutionary process. We then discuss the possibility or impossibility of such
cosmological immortality.
To facilitate navigation in this work, I have added two appendices. Appendix I
is a straightforward summary of the worldview developed, presenting positions
rather than arguments. In narrative terms, the summary is a spoiler for my thesis,
so I leave it to the reader to decide whether or when to consult it. Appendix II
provides two argumentative maps. The first map describes the core problems
tackled in the book, and the second one summarizes the proposed solution. These
two appendices will be of most benefit to professional academics familiar with the
issues I tackle, but they may also help other readers who wish to take a birds-eye
view.
Academic research is always work in progress. So, at the end of each part or
main chapter, I point to the most important and challenging open questions I came
up with. I hope researchers will pursue themwith or without my collaboration.
xxxiv Introduction
For me, the achievement of this book is to put together pieces of a cosmic
puzzle. Together, the pieces form a worldview that I confess to finding
magnificent. My objective now is to share it with you. I hope to establish a
deep, enduring, and yet evolving connection between intelligent life and the
cosmos, which will give people a sense of the meaning of life, in harmony with
cosmic evolution.
Part I
Overview of Worldviews
Following the development of modern science, scientists have taken over more
and more issues from philosophers. For example, classic philosophical problems
about the mind, time, space, or the cosmos are now investigated by scientific
means. How should philosophers react to this? They may feel intruded upon, and
react by taking refuge in issues science will never touch. Or they may be delighted
by scientific progress on philosophical issues, since it contributes new ideas,
arguments, and insights for our common quest to understand the world.
Philosophers thus often need to redefine the scope of philosophy and its
relationship to science. They can also take the opportunity to embrace new
scientific knowledge. Partly because science has taken over some formerly
philosophical issues, modern philosophy has split into two main traditions,
analytic and continental, with different drawbacks that we shall briefly examine.
Decades ago, Paul Ricoeur (1979) directed a survey of the main trends of
philosophy. He distinguished three main trends:
(1) Philosophy as Weltanschauung (worldview),
(2) English and American analytic philosophy,
(3) Subjectivity and beyond.
Philosophy in trend (3) explores other forms of experience than objective
knowledge. Philosophers who went this way include the young Hegel, Kierkegaard,
the young Marx, and some disciples of phenomenology. This trend corresponds to
continental philosophy. It is a stimulating intellectual approach but faces harsh
criticism, most notably for its lack of methodology (see e.g., Shackel 2005).
By contrast, although analytic philosophy (2) brings precise methods of analysis
and criticism into philosophy, it still lacks a general guideline or a unifying
agenda. The use of logical methods is insufficient to constitute such an agenda.
Analytic philosophy really needs to go beyond pure analysis; it also needs to be
complemented with a synthetic dimension. Synthetic worldview construction, as
we shall see, can fill this gap. Our philosophical position in this book will thus tend
toward trend (1).
2 Part I: Overview of Worldviews
Still, distinguishing those three trends does not answer our question: What is
philosophy? A fuzzy answer is that it is a quest to understand humankind and its
world. For the most important questions, this enterprise overlaps with science and
religion. Philosophy, science, and religion share this quest for understanding, and
they can build more or less strong relationships to pursue it (see e.g., Russell et al.
1988). The result is that starting respectively from science, religion, or philosophy,
we end up with different worldviews.
We shall argue that having a coherent and comprehensive worldview is the
central aim of philosophy. But what, more precisely, is a worldview? How can we
compare very different worldviews? Specifically, what are the respective strengths
and weaknesses of scientific, religious, and philosophical worldviews?
To better grasp what philosophy is and to navigate its rich and complex
landscape, I first introduce, in Chap. 1, six philosophical dimensions along with a
worldview agenda. This agenda invites us to tackle big questions, and our answers
to them define what our worldview is. Furthermore, to meaningfully and critically
tackle the big questions, we must be able to compare different worldviews. For this
we need a set of criteria and a battery of tests. We introduce such criteria and tests
in Chap. 2, with the aim of easing the difficult task of comparing worldviews. We
conclude our analysis of worldviews and criteria by showing that science and
religion have complementary strengths and weaknesses (Chap. 3). By synthesizing
them, we can hope to build more coherent and comprehensive philosophical or
theological worldviews.
Thus Part I provides an ambitious yet considered philosophical framework to
serve as a launch pad for our journey into the big cosmological issues: the
beginning and the end, and the meaning of life.
Chapter 1
The Six Dimensions of Philosophy
Abstract We introduce six dimensions of philosophy. The first three deal with
first-order knowledge about reality (descriptive, normative, and practical), the next
two deal with second-order knowledge about knowledge (critical and dialectical),
and the sixth dimension (synthetic) integrates the other five. We describe and
illustrate the dimensions with Leo Apostels worldview program. Then we argue
that we all need a worldview to interact with our world and to give a meaning to our
lives. Such a worldview can be more or less explicit, and we argue that for rational
discourse it is essential to make it as explicit as possible. We illustrate the dynamic
interrelation of the different worldview components with a cybernetic diagram.
A philosophical agenda defines the range of problems and issues that are addressed
by a philosophy. What are the most profound questions of existence? Those
questions, but not their answers, are surprisingly enduring throughout the history of
philosophy (see e.g. Passmore 1961, p. 39; Rescher 2006, p. 91). The worldview
approach developed by Leo Apostel elegantly explicates the questions (Apostel and
Van der Veken 1991; trans. in Aerts et al. 1994); we can summarize them as:
complementary to the second one. Instead of focusing on the past, it focuses on the
future. Where are we going? What will be the fate of life in the universe?
Answering these questions give us possible and probable futures. But there are
many possible futures and their probability is most often hard if not impossible to
assess. We need to cope with uncertainties, and this leaves us with choices to make.
Which possible alternatives should we promote and which ones should we avoid?
To find answers, we need values and thus the normative dimension (2).
Describing or modeling the world is an enterprise overlapping with science. The
precise formulation of these first three worldview questions will thus vary from
epoch to epoch. For example, current problems related to the ultimate constituents
of matter [question (a)] depend strongly on available scientific theories. So we need
to reformulate and define such big questions in the context of a certain epoch. Such
purely philosophical questions become mixed questions in the sense that they
require scientific knowledge to formulate and to solve them (Adler 1993, p. 67;
C. I. Lewis 1929, pp. 48). Such mixed questions invite us to conduct philosophy
with other disciplines, rather than the more common second-order philosophies
of other disciplines (Hansson 2008). Anticipating what follows, considering
mixed questions is already part of the synthetic dimension (6) of philosophy.
The normative dimension (2) tackles ought questions, typified with the
worldview question: What is good and what is evil? How do we live a good life?
How can we organize a good society? How do we evaluate global reality? What
should we strive for? What is the meaning of life in a cosmological perspective?
Axiology traditionally deals with these questions, including morality, ethics, and
aesthetics. Also in the normative dimension, the questions are mixed. For example,
the question of how to live a good life is mixed with the psychology of well-being;
the question of how to organize a good society is mixed with political philosophy,
sociology, etc. This worldview component gives us preferences, direction, pur-
pose, a set of goals to guide our actions. Yet it is not always clear how to connect
values with actions.
The practical dimension (3) addresses action questions. Given our model of
the world and our axiology, we can ask: How should we act? What are the general
principles according to which we should organize our actions? We need such
principles to act in consistent accord with to our values and to solve practical
problems. Such practical insights will remain implicit for most us, in the sense that
we act without having a theory of how we act. Theorizing about action is the
domain of praxeology, which is mixed with fields like operational research,
problem-solving methods, management sciences, etc. Adler (1993) did not include
this important dimension explicitly. But it is a notable kind of philosophizing,
namely, philosophy as a way of life.
Most modern philosophers would argue that questions in dimensions (1) or (3)
are no longer the task of philosophy. This is mainly because those questions, which
were once philosophical, gave birth to various modern sciences (James 1987,
p. 993). For example, William James is one of the founding fathers of scientific
psychology, Frege and Russell founded mathematical logic, and Auguste Comte
coined the term sociology.
6 1 The Six Dimensions of Philosophy
Those descriptive and practical philosophical dimensions were once at the core
of the philosophical enterprise, and the fact that they are no longer there today is
arguably only a historical accident (see Adler 1965, 1993). Let us now turn to
second-order philosophizing.
mathematical objects, and are thus ultimately busy with question (a). With this
worldview agenda, we insist on reconnecting with first-order questions, whose
corresponding dimensions are often neglected in contemporary philosophy (Adler
1965, pp. 4248).
The dialectical dimension (5) in second-order philosophizing describes different
and sometimes contradictory positions on issues. Worldview question (g) requires
that this dialectical dimension be properly answered. The concept of dialectic has a
rich history in philosophy, but here its etymological meaning will suffice: the art
of debate. I do not use it in a Hegelian sense, or in the derogatory sense of
rhetoric or sophistry. The goal of dialectical philosophizing is to remain without a
point of view. Its activity consists in stating or reconstructing issues and a variety
of positions toward them. Here, dialectical is opposed to doctrinal.
This can be illustrated by three great examples in the history of philosophy. In
classical antiquity, Aristotle described in detail in the first book of his Metaphysics
the positions of his opponents before developing his own. In the middle ages,
Thomas Aquinas in his Summa Theologica (12651274) also represented other
positions as objections. In modern times, with the two index volumes of The Great
Ideas: A Syntopicon of Great Books of the Western World, Adler and his team
(1952a, 1:xxx) also sought to remain neutrally positioned. They provided outlines
and indexes of positions related to 102 great ideas in 443 books. Such a gargantuan
work could be called a Summa Dialectica of the twentieth century (Adler 1952a,
1:xxxi).
As useful as it is, dialectical philosophizing alone still remains categorization,
an exercise just slightly more difficult than philately. As Rescher (1985) argued,
the tempting recourse of syncretism, namely to accept all positions distinguished,
is an insufficient philosophical accomplishment, since a mere conjunction of
contradictory positions is of course self-contradictory. Syncretism stems from a
confusion between first-order and second-order philosophizing.
A final dimension of philosophizing is needed to exploit this dialectical effort
fully in a doctrinal way. As Broad (1947) noticed, philosophers performing such a
dialectical investigation, which Broad calls synopsis, are most often attempting a
synthesis. Aristotle, Aquinas, and Adler are great synthetic philosophers.
The synthetic dimension (6) is the climax of philosophizing, but also its most
arduous dimension. To move in it successfully requires mastering and juggling
with all other five dimensions. The great philosophers reach dimension (6) by
providing a comprehensive and coherent synthesis of their time. It is so chal-
lenging that it is rarely attempted (Broad 1947). When we speak about worldview
synthesis, we refer to this dimension of philosophy.
This chapter and the next fall within the critical dimension (4), concerned with
the philosophy of philosophy. But my motivation in proposing evaluation stan-
dards and tests (in Chap. 2) is to help answer first-order questions and to encourage
synthetic philosophizing. In the spirit of the synthetic dimension, there is a clear
connection between my first-order and second-order philosophizing. This is why at
heart my analysis cannot be neutral, for it cannot be separated from the first-order
philosophical position outlined in Appendix I.
8 1 The Six Dimensions of Philosophy
Rescher (2001, pp. 610) argued from an evolutionary point of view that the
strength of human beings is their capacity to acquire and use knowledge of the
world:
We are neither numerous and prolific (like the ant and the termite), nor tough and
aggressive (like the shark). Weak and vulnerable creatures, we are constrained to make our
evolutionary way in the world by the use of brainpower.
Most people adopt and follow a worldview without thinking much about it. Their
worldview remains implicit. They intuitively have a representation of the world
[components (a)(c)], know what is good and what is bad [component (d)], and
have learned how to act in the world [component (e)]. And this is enough to get by.
But some curious, reflexive, critical, thinking, or philosophical minds wake up
and start to question their worldview. They aspire to make it explicit. Articulating
ones worldview explicitly is an extremely difficult task. It is so difficult that
philosophical schools have tried to escape it, remaining in the comfortable arm-
chair of second-order philosophizing. Two extreme positions are then possible:
either to accept no philosophical doctrine at all (skepticism) or to accept them all
(syncretism). Such positions are untenable if we are committed to answering first-
order philosophical questions (Rescher 1985). At best, skepticism or syncretism
can be useful philosophical critiques or dialectical descriptions.
Having a clear agenda is still not enough. What about the answers? Answering
first-order philosophical questions explicitly is an enterprise that traditionally fell
to philosophy. This often took the form of comprehensive, coherent, and sys-
tematic philosophical treatises. Regrettably, this trend seems to have fallen out of
fashion, since most modern philosophy addresses second-order problems (see e.g.
Adler 1965; Ricoeur 1979).
Before agreeing or disagreeing with someone, we need to explicate and
understand our respective positions. Explicating ones first-order position is
extremely valuable when presenting ones philosophy plainly and truthfully.
Unfortunately, this practice is not common among philosophers. But I choose and
invite you to go against this trend. For the sake of intellectual transparency and
honesty, I explicate my current first-order position in Appendix I, which sum-
marizes my positions in this book (so dont read it if you prefer to be left in
suspense). Having a clear position on basic philosophical issues is the philoso-
phers identity card. Every thinker should have one, and be able to show it when
entering the Agora of philosophical dispute.
In Appendix I, I have stated only my positions and not given arguments.
Instead, I have given references to the works that most influenced me, so that any
reader who cares to do so can find many detailed arguments. I have also stated
which criteria I found most valuable to work out my position. This is not as
satisfactory as a fully developed philosophical system (see e.g. the impressive
work of Bunge 1974; or Rescher 1992). But I am sure the statements will facilitate
debate and critique of the positions and arguments presented here.
10 1 The Six Dimensions of Philosophy
Looking carefully at the diagram, one is struck by the centrality of the value
component. The information we seek and the actions we perform ultimately
depend on our values. Murphy and Ellis (1996) also saw the importance of values
and ethics when they argued that ethics is a science at the top of the hierarchy of
social sciences. Likewise, our treatment of cosmological ethics (in Chap. 10) is a
cornerstone of this work.
1.5 A Cybernetic Model of a Worldview 11
Note that the seventh component (g) does not appear in Fig. 1.2, since it is a
second-order component. Note too that an individual does not need to have made
the components explicit. I can act consistently according to some values, yet never
think about a theory of values.
To illustrate this, let us consider the extreme example of a bacteriums
worldview. How can we interpret its worldview components? Its ontology is what
it senses at present; its explanation is a kind of memory, which may be its bio-
chemical state; its prediction is a feedback system, fixed by its genes; its axiology
(to find food, reproduce, move, eat and digest) is mainly fixed by its genes too; and
its perceptions are chemical gradients. As Stuart Kauffman (2007, p. 909) argued:
[A] bacterium swimming up a glucose gradient and performing work cycles is an agent,
and glucose has value and meaning for the bacterium without assuming consciousness. Of
course it is natural selection that has achieved this coupling. But teleological language has
to start somewhere, and I am willing to place it at the start of life.
If philosophical theories are all irrefutable, how can we ever distinguish between true and
false philosophical theories?
(Popper 1958)
2.1.1 Metaphilosophy
There are three perspectives we take into account to structure our criteria. We call
them objective, subjective, and intersubjective. In broad terms, they correspond to
three aspects that many philosophers have distinguished. Let us take a birds-eye
view. The term worldview comes in three different flavors and emphases:
1. a world conception, systemic or objective;
2. a life world, experienced or subjective;
3. a world view, social or intersubjective.
In flavor (1) we find the rational scientific endeavor to construct a world
conception (Weltauffassung), as did the logical empiricists of the Vienna Circle
(Carnap et al. 1929). Another comparable concept is the world picture (Welt-
bild), which is constrained to remain consistent with scientific results. For
example, Dilthey (1957, pp. 2527) speaks about an objective Weltbild. By con-
trast, a worldview (Weltanschauung) is based on this Weltbild to form values,
ideals, and norms for action, both for individuals and for society (i.e. subjective
and intersubjective aspects). For more on the definition of and need for a world-
view with this flavor, see (Aerts et al. 1994) and (Vidal 2008a).
In flavor (2) come explorations of the lifeworld (Lebenswelt) in existential or
phenomenological philosophies, which emphasize subjective experiences. The
lifeworld stresses the personal aspect of a worldview. The inquiry is centered at the
individual level, as in the existentialist philosophies of Kierkegaard, Heidegger,
Jaspers, Sartre, or Merleau-Ponty. The drawback is that such views fail to
emphasize higher levels of organization (e.g. family, society, planet, universe).
This is why it is crucial to go beyond the individual level, and answer those
worldview questions with a wide scope, a criterion we will detail later.
In flavor (3) the term world view is used in a social and cultural sense, often
in anthropology or social sciences (see e.g. Kearney 1975 for a review). It then
parallels ideology, symbolic order, cultural code, etc. In Christian theology, the
16 2 Criteria for Worldview Comparison
term is used between flavor (2) and (3). For more on this concept, see (Naugle
2002; Koltko-Rivera 2004).
Thus we can speak about worldviews in at least these three possible ways,
depending on whether we are emphasizing their objective, subjective or inter-
subjective aspects. We shall discuss these flavors in detail in the next Sect. 2.2. My
personal bias is toward flavor (1), but I will try to do justice to the two other flavors
as well.
Turning to Kants three celebrated critiques, we find them highly reflexive,
epistemological, and therefore second-order in approach. Yet their themes concern
three different philosophical realms. The Critique of Pure Reason concerns the
possibility of objective judgments, the Critique of Practical Reason deals with
intersubjective morality, and the Critique of Judgment is partly concerned with
subjective aesthetic experiences.
In an attempt to go beyond monism or dualist philosophies, Karl Popper (1979)
also proposed a three-worlds pluralism. World 1 is the world that consists of
physical bodies; world 2 is the world of mental or psychological states or
processes, or of subjective experiences; and world 3 is the world of the products
of the human mind. Poppers world 3 is a wide category, including languages,
myths, scientific theories, and works of art such as songs, paintings, and sculptures.
He saw worlds 2 and 3 as successive evolutionary products of world 1. But he
emphasized the difficulty of understanding interactions between the three worlds,
because of the feedback processes going on between them (for a modern approach
on the three worlds, see e.g. Hall 2003). For a critical discussion and the limita-
tions of this ontology from a sociological point of view, see (Habermas 1981, Vol.
1, pp. 7684).
Max Weber saw the birth of modernity with the distinction between several
cultural spheres of value: science and technology (objective), law and morality
(intersubjective), plus art and criticism (subjective). As Habermas (1981, Vol. 1,
p. 340) describes, this leads to cognitive, normative, and aesthetic validity claims.
In his influential theory of communicative action, Habermas (1981) took
inspiration from Poppers three worlds and Webers cultural spheres of values to
define three validity claims. Actors evaluate their speech acts against three worlds
(Habermas 1981, Vol. 1, p. 100):
1. The objective world (as the totality of all entities about which true statements are
possible);
2. The social world (as the totality of all legitimately regulated interpersonal relations);
3. The subjective world (as the totality of the experiences of the speaker to which he has
privileged access).
taking perspectives from inside these worlds and not merely describing them in an
objective manner. This means, for example, that instead of striving to describe the
subjective experience in a detached universal way, we can also experience it
deeply from the inside. Thus he makes a connection with meditative traditions that
seek to explore the nature of inner experiences. By analogy, scientists try to
understand the nature of the outer world. Wilber (1995, p. 211 and pp. 538539)
also argued that integrating the big three is the central problem of
postmodernity.
In cultural evolution studies, objective, subjective, and intersubjective criteria
to fit knowledge to the world are distinguished in two papers (Heylighen 1997a;
Heylighen and Chielens 2008) developing the insights of Donald T. Campbell. The
authors distinguish three main classes of criteria to improve the fit between
knowledge and the world:
1. Objective criteriathe object that knowledge refers to,
2. Subjective criteriathe subject who assimilates and remembers it,
3. Intersubjective criteriathe communication process used to transmit the
knowledge between subjects.
Are the criteria descriptive or prescriptive? The best way to answer this questions
is to apply metaphilosophy to the criteria themselves. By thus bootstrapping the
criteria, we arrive at three principal applications of the criteria.
First, objectively, the criteria can work in the dialectical dimension (5) of
philosophy by describing characteristics of different philosophical approaches and
positions. This is part of the mission of a comparative history of philosophy that
aims at what Rescher (1985) calls descriptive metaphilosophizing.
Second, subjectively, the criteria can be used to develop a clear substantive
position. It can assist ones insight to become aware of ones own cognitive values
by giving weights to the criteria. In this section, I have tried to restrict my use of
criteria in an objective and dialectical manner. However, I do take a first-order
position in Appendix I, where I give weights to the criteria. The criteria can also be
used as a critical checklist, to improve a worldview, by enabling one to maximize
its score for a number of criteria.
By the way, philosophers who say philosophy should value one criterion above
another are just expressing their own philosophical position. There is no absolute
metaphilosophical position from which to justify such claims. Prescriptive meta-
philosophizing is simply philosophizing (see Rescher 1985, Chap. 14).
Finally, the criteria can be used intersubjectively, to compare worldviews,
conduct debates, and clarify disagreements. We emphasize this application in this
chapter and the next. However, even two thinkers adhering to the same descriptive
metaphilosophical criteria list will most likely reach different conclusions. They
will almost certainly give different subjective weights to the criteria.
18 2 Criteria for Worldview Comparison
To summarize, the criteria can be seen as tools for philosophers to describe the
history of philosophy, to work out their own philosophical position, or to clarify
disagreements.
Nicholas Rescher (2001, p. 31) proposed a list of standards for evaluating philo-
sophical theories. This list, together with the big three distinction, leads to the
list of criteria in Table 2.1. I propose to explain and illustrate the criteria as
follows. For each criterion, I shall first describe it and then ask what happens if it is
violated. I shall then point out abuses and limits for each one, and where possible
suggest contrasting criteria. This balanced questioning will help us to better
delineate both the importance and limitations of each criterion. When I refer to a
criterion in the ensuing discussion, I italicize it.
2.2.2 Scientificity
2.2.3 Scope
The scope criterion is particularly rich and vital. We can subdivide it into three:
scope in agenda, scope in level breadth, and scope in level depth.
Scope in agenda. Other criteria being equal, one worldview is better than
another when its agenda has a larger scope, tackling a wider array of issues. I have
already mentioned that the philosophical agenda is a topic of critical importance
and so of huge dispute. This dispute often remains implicit and therefore con-
fusing. The worldview agenda covers the most important first-order questions.
Here we have used five worldview questions as a prototypical first-order starting
point, but further questions might be added. To this end, it would be worth
checking the history of philosophy to make a comparative analysis of philo-
sophical agendas.
If this criterion is violated, the focus shrinks to specific and narrow issues,
which leads to sectarianism and overspecialization (Bahm 1953, p. 423). What
often happens in philosophy is that an intellectual conceptual world is built,
criticized, refined, discussed again, and so on. With time, more and more complex
distinctions emerge and the initial motivation for those distinctions is forgotten, as
is the connection with first-order philosophical issues. This is precisely what has
happened in modern philosophy in its insistence on second-order questions and
knowledge. For example, Anglo-American analytic philosophy after World War II
tended to display good internal consistency and a scientific aspect, but had a very
narrow scope in its agenda (Rescher 2001, p. 38). The scope in agenda was
narrowed down to second-order problems (Adler 1965). Adler (1965) argued that a
commitment to first-order philosophizing was the only condition that was missing
from analytic philosophy for it to become a respectable way of philosophizing.
Of course, the wider the agenda, the more difficult the synthetic integration.
Such an integration has always been the achievement of a single philosopher.
Those philosophical systems turn into unrevisable, untouchable personal con-
structions. At that point, common standards of truth are no longer applicable, and
22 2 Criteria for Worldview Comparison
insight is pushed in only one specific direction, thinking becomes reductionist. The
history of philosophy is full of examples. Philosophical materialists assert that
everything is ultimately composed of elementary particles, which leads to diffi-
culties. For example, how can we define what is beautiful or what is a morally
good action if everything is determined by interactions between particles? In the
case of language, even if every expressible thought or idea must be expressed
through language, does that mean that we can reduce every problem to a problem
of language?
A related risk is to abuse the scope in level breadth criterion by diverging too
widely. The worldview can become too holistic and dissolve into vague New Age
ideas, for example that all reality is a unified field, or into theories that are too
abstract and useless. A delicate balance has to be found between objective con-
sistency and scope in level breadth. The broader our scope becomes, the harder it
is to maintain consistency. For example, Humes philosophy can be seen as pri-
marily analytic, with scientificity and objective consistency as his main criteria,
while Hegels work is primarily synoptic, aiming at the widest possible scope
(Broad 1947). Notoriously, Hegels scope tends to be too wide. Some other criteria
can balance extreme holism: consider for example the subjective and intersub-
jective criteria.
One antidote to reductionism is Herman Dooyeweerds aspectual framework. In
a unique philosophical approach, Dooyeweerd (1953) introduces fifteen aspects
through which we can make sense of the world, namely: quantitative, spatial,
kinematic, physical, organic, psychic, analytic, formative, lingual, social, eco-
nomic, aesthetic, juridical, ethical, and pistic (this refers to pure or genuine
faith, as a kind of ultimate vision). The framework is promising and has led to
applications in information science (see e.g. Winfield 2000; Basden 2007). If we
are systematic in considering such different aspects, it is indeed less likely that we
fall into some kind of reductionism.
Scope in level depth. A worldview with a wide scope extends not only across a
wide diversity of levels but also across the extreme possibilities of each level. This
is shown in the way great philosophers go to extremes by seeking the most uni-
versal issues, principles, theories, and answers (Jaspers 1957, introduction).
A worldview that takes into account many different levels might still be
reductionist if all these levels are not pushed to their extremes. Consider two ways
of violating the scope in level depth criterion. In a spatial scope depth violation,
the worldview applies only to a very limited geographical area. How seriously can
we take a philosophy that is based only on the life of a small village but claims to
be universal? Similarly, in a time scope violation, the worldview applies only to a
very particular era. How seriously can we take a philosophy that considers only
what has happened in the past ten years of human history?
We need to consider the trade-off between depth-first or breadth-first in the
scope in levels criterion. Either we go in depth into a subject, with a particular
methodology or aim, or we explore a wide variety of levels, aspects, and
perspectives.
24 2 Criteria for Worldview Comparison
Even assuming we reach the broadest range of levels, and their deepest
capacity, a fundamental issue remains, namely the scalability of the worldview, or
its logical and scientific consistency across different levels. Scalability requires a
dynamic hierarchical understanding of the world. We need to switch from static to
dynamic hierarchical levels. Although Dooyeweerd proposes aspects that should
be distinguished and taken into account, he does not convincingly explain their
origin or their complex evolution and interrelations.
The dynamic and hierarchical understanding of different levels is key to
understanding complex systems (see e.g. Salthe 1985). It is the ability not only to
analyze issues closely but also to maintain a broad perspective by analyzing both
microscopic and macroscopic issues. Even the contrast of microlevel and mac-
rolevel is misleading because we do not want to restrict the analysis to two levels
only. We need to look at n relevant levels. If we seriously consider the relativity of
scales, all scales might be equally important. Understanding the transitions
between different levels of complexity arguably generates the hardest challenges in
contemporary science. For example, how did spacetime emerge in the Big Bang
era? How did life, language, consciousness, society, and the rest emerge?
2.2.6 Emotionality
The rational attitude is unemotional (Bahm 1953, p. 14). It might then be sur-
prising to include emotionality as a criterion for a good worldview. The trouble is
that emotions often remain poorly recognized and discussed in many human
interactions, even if their influence can be immense. Merely suppressing emotions
or leaving them unacknowledged allows them to intervene in more subversive and
unconscious ways (e.g. Freud 1899). It would be foolish to dismiss the powerful
impact they have on every aspect of our lives and worldviews. We definitely need
a framework and tools to deal with them.
Emotional states of mind can be triggered by the environment or by interacting
with others. This criterion is therefore better categorized as both subjective and
intersubjective. The interplay of emotions and higher cognitive functions, culture,
education, and personality is complex and intricate. It is the object of affective
science to study motives, attitudes, moods, and emotions, as well as their effect in
personal and collective behavior.
Emotions are basic cognitive mechanisms inherited through evolution. They
can be viewed as basic survival values passed on genetically rather than cul-
turally. They have succeeded over millions of years of evolution in furthering
survival and reproduction (e.g. Darwin 1872; Ledoux 1996).
Some emotions are indispensable to maintaining basic bodily functions (see e.g.
Denton 2005). Such homeostatic emotions are feelings triggered by internal body
states. Hunger, thirst, and heat exhaustion are all feelings that prompt us to restore
balance in bodily systems, respectively by eating, drinking, or moving into the
shade. Other emotions are triggered by external stimuli. For example, lust, anger,
or fear motivate us to copulate, fight, or flee. Etymologically, emotions are what
move us. Physiologically, they direct our attention and motivate our behavior, and
hence mobilize us for action.
Finding a good emotional balance is fundamental for someone to be in good
health and to be socially integrated. A person who is out of balance will experience
emotional and behavioral disorders. Having stunted emotions, like a psychopath,
or having excessive ones, as with some forms of neurosis, are both pathologies.
Modern medicine and psychotherapies can help in such cases.
If the emotionality criterion is violated, emotions are not engaged (or only the
wrong emotions are engaged, as in depression). The worldview becomes bland and
unexciting, whatever its other qualities may be. It provides no motivation to accept
it or indeed to act in accordance with any particular worldview rather than any
2.2 Criteria for Worldview Comparison 27
positive emotions broaden the mindset, and hence lead to more creative thinking,
whereas negative emotions narrow the mindset (see again Fredrickson 2004).
From a collective perspective, a major issue in political theory is the role of
emotionality in human association. We saw that relying only on rational arguments
doesnt work for most people. This lesson of evolutionary psychology was
understood long ago in rhetoric, the art of persuasion. Aristotles Rhetoric dis-
tinguished three steps: ethos, pathos, and logos (authority, motivation, and only
then rational arguments). Political speech using no emotions would most likely fail
to engage or to mobilize its audience. Mass media and politicians therefore exploit
rhetorical tricks to trigger and manipulate popular emotions.
Which emotions should they engage to promote or diffuse a worldview? In
principle, there are four possible responses: engage positive emotions, engage
negative emotions, engage both, or engage neither.
The first rhetorical option is to engage only positive emotions, such as love,
generosity, or compassion. This strategy is often adopted by charities for good
causes. But only nave and gullible people can adopt a positive attitude in any
situation. Emotions, even positive ones, need to remain functional.
The second option is to exploit negative emotions, such as fear or hatred. Fear
of burning in hell was used for centuries to control the behavior of faithful
Christians. But such a strategy can backfire, and anyway seems ethically dubious,
so much so that incitement to hatred is legally punishable in many countries.
History is replete with bad outcomes from politics based on fear.
The third option is to trigger both positive and negative emotions for different
purposes. This is harder than it may seem, because people interpret their emotions
differently, depending on their cognitive development (see e.g. Graves 1974).
The fourth option of refusing to engage emotions is a tempting response. Abuse
of rhetoric to whip up strong emotions can drive out rational thought. Because
emotions are hard-wired in our brains, they can easily subvert rational thought and
push us to act irrationally, or even in extreme cases to commit atrocities. Yet, as
we saw, this option doesnt work.
An effective polity will involve appeal to human emotions. But it is worth
balancing the striving of political leaders to harness popular emotions with a civic
initiative to encourage individual emotional control. Citizens who are educated in
emotional control become more open to rational debate. If their education has led
them to cultivate emotional awareness, expressing negative and positive emotions,
they can more easily engage in informed and sustained mobilization for a greater
good.
architectures that nudge people toward desired actions (Thaler and Sunstein 2009).
In addition, information and communication technologies make it technically
possible to implement collective coordination on large scales (see e.g. Watkins and
Rodriguez 2008). A famous illustration of collective coordination is the Wikipedia
online encyclopedia, which coordinates millions of users to collaboratively write
the largest encyclopedia ever.
The open source software development community already functions with
advanced collaborative coordination tools (Heylighen 2007). A central tool is the
job-ticketing system, which stimulates the community to act. A user who finds a
bug or a feature to implement leaves a message on a forum to which others have
access. Other users can then work on this initial stimulus. Inspired by this success,
and extending personal utility, personal action management systems could be
extended to the collective, hinting at the possibility of a collaborative version of
Getting Things Done (Heylighen and Vidal 2008). Collective problem solving
through collaborative argumentation mapping methods also promises to promote
large scale rational decision making (Baldwin and Price 2008; Iandoli et al. 2007).
If collective utility is violated, people strive to fulfill individualist values or
basic needs. Collective utility can be interpreted as a consistency criterion, not on a
theoretical level, to stay free of contradiction, but on a practical level, to achieve
mutually beneficial actions. Idealized consistent systems are useless if they can not
be applied in the real world. Collective utility is thus a strong pragmatic criterion to
complement theoretical reasoning and theory construction. Nonetheless, focusing
on personal utility or collective utility leaves normative problems open. We need
to find, define, and refine what we deem is the most useful, both personally and
socially. An axiology is needed.
2.2.9 Narrativity
Let us now turn from our criteria to evaluation tests and recover some of
Adlers tests (1965, 1993, p. 31). Adler argued that there are three families of tests:
empirical, pragmatic, and logical. Empirical tests, such as Poppers falsifica-
tionism, are clearly included in scientificity. Furthermore, if we follow Adlers
distinction between special experience and common experience, scientificity
would be useful to assess the special experience that science involves, whereas
subjective consistency assesses the common experience that we undergo. Prag-
matic tests are represented by subjective and intersubjective utility criteria. Logical
tests are included in our objective consistency criterion.
Using each criterion individually is relatively easy, but the outcome of such
usage has limited value. How can we use several criteria at the same time?
Combining more and more criteria, we face a combinatorial explosion, especially
as we enlarge our scope. Let us see why.
descriptive and normative dimensions consistent, we are in the domain of the is-
ought test. Similarly, combining normative with practical dimensions is covered
by the ought-act test. Finally, coupling descriptive and practical dimensions leads
to the is-act test. Key questions summarizing the tests are given in Table 2.2.
The is-ought problem (Hume 1739) reminds us that philosophy is a unique
discipline concerned with questions both about what is the case and about what
ought to be. In other words, it is concerned with both descriptive and normative
issues. Combining descriptive and normative theories leads to the is-ought prob-
lem, the central problem in moral philosophy (Hudson 1969, p. 11).
Let me illustrate the is-ought problem with the classical issue of determinism
and freedom. If we assume at a descriptive level that everything is completely
determined, can we then defend on the normative side the view there is such a
thing as human freedom? This is a typical complication of the philosophical
doctrine of determinism. Until this knotty problem has been given an adequate
answer, the doctrine is unsatisfying (see also e.g. Adler 1965, Chap. 11, 1993 for
more details on the is-ought test).
Even if the worldview under consideration successfully passes the is-ought test,
it tells us nothing about how to act in concrete situations. How well are the
normative and practical dimensions holding together? How are moral principles
and ethical theories applied in practice, both individually and collectively?
The ought-act test concerns consistency between values (worldview question
(d)) and actions (question (e)). Philosophy as a discipline is rarely considered to be
concerned with this problem. In the ought-act test, efficiency in action is not
primarily what matters. What matters is that individual or collective actions are in
line with normative principles. How can we apply normative theories in specific
cases and contexts? This is the central problem of applied ethics. For example,
fields like medicine, business, engineering and scientific research are all con-
fronted with making difficult ethical choices (see e.g. LaFollette 2007). To act
meaningfully, a normative theory is largely insufficient. We also need the prac-
tical, realizable, and concrete means to act consistently with normative rules. More
realistically, to tackle complex moral decision making, applied ethics has devel-
oped sophisticated models such as case-based reasoning or Rawls (1971) reflec-
tive equilibrium. In such an endeavor, the philosophical enterprise is mixed with
moral and political ones, and its pursuit needs insights from strategic action,
management theories, and so on.
Let us illustrate a failure of the ought-act test with Kants (1785, 4:421) cat-
egorical imperative: Act only on that maxim through which you can at the same
time will that it should become a universal law. Beautiful. But how are we sup-
posed to apply it in practice? This normative imperative doesnt take into account
any real-world complexity in decision making. It doesnt much help one to act. For
example, it doesnt help a young doctor to decide whether a fourteen-year-old
pregnant girl should have an abortion or not. Another example is the value of
achieving world peace. Almost everybody would see this as a valuable enterprise.
But what are the most urgent and important actions to perform now to achieve
world peace as soon as possible? To stop famine? To fight corruption? To provide
34 2 Criteria for Worldview Comparison
Table 2.2 Summary of worldview assessment tests across the philosophical dimensions
Test Question
Is-ought Is your description of the world consistent with your values?
Ought-act Do you connect your values with concrete decision making and action?
Is-act Is your model for action efficient?
Critical Do you critically analyze your worldview with objective, subjective and
intersubjective criteria?
Dialectical Do you connect issues and review all major positions on ideas related to your
worldview?
Mixed question Is your worldview consistent with and working with other branches of
knowledge?
Synthetic Is your second-order philosophizing ultimately working for first-order
philosophizing or synthesis?
all people in the world with energy by building more nuclear power plants? And so
on. A lot of deliberation will be needed to reach agreement on these matters.
Philosophers are often reluctant to embrace action, notably because they feel
more comfortable with second-order philosophizing. A notable exception was Karl
Marx, who famously wrote to Feuerbach that philosophers have hitherto only
interpreted the world in various ways; the point is to change it (Engels and Marx
1903). Mises (1949) also developed a theory of action, which is sometimes con-
sidered as the capitalist equivalent of Marxs Capital. The problem is that a
philosophical theory can easily be abused when it is applied in the moral or
political sphere. So it is worth asking whether the philosopher should not be more
actively involved when this critical transition from value to action occurs. The
ought-act test aims to cohere values with concrete actions and is as crucial to
address as the is-ought test.
Passing the is-act test successfully is essential for effective and efficient action.
From a cybernetic viewpoint, this is obvious. The more accurate the model is, the
more precise and effective will action and control be (Conant and Ashby 1970).
This test entails an engineering attitude, and has technical utility. When the is-act
test is neglected, action doesnt work. In science and engineering, there is a
constant feedback between modeling and experimenting (acting). An action that
does not produce good results will not be selected. A good model of the world
enables us to make predictions of our actions outcomes.
However, considered alone, the is-act test short-circuits the normative dimen-
sion. The only implicit value here is efficiency. We might call such a shortcut the
normative fallacy, since it involves simply dropping the normative dimension.
This is important to acknowledge, because if we want to bring in our values, we
need other dimensions of philosophizing. The most obvious solution is to combine
this test with the ought-act or the is-ought test.
Let us now turn to second-order tests. Consider first the critical test, with the
key question: Did you critically analyze your worldview with objective, sub-
jective, and intersubjective criteria? We can work from both analytic and
2.3 Assessment Tests 35
continental traditions to perform these tests. The analytic tradition will use
objective consistency and scientificity to perform its critique, while the continental
tradition will focus on intersubjective (social) and subjective aspects of the
worldview under consideration. Philosophizing that fails this test is unreflective
and possibly self-contradictory.
The dialectical test is summarized with the question: Did you review all major
positions on this issue? All good academic research starts by reviewing as
impartially as possible all positions and related issues on a certain topic or idea.
The Syntopicon (Adler 1952a, b) is an advanced and useful example of such an
effort. Once a wide review has been made, it is possible to precisely define and
connect issues. When this dimension of philosophizing is skipped, we are likely to
generate nave theories, by reiterating mistakes made in the history of ideas. This
dialectical work ultimately helps philosophers dealing with first-order questions to
synthesize conflicting positions or to show why their position is better than
others.
Third-order tests are crucial for anyone concerned about synthesis, because they
glue together the previous five dimensions. In synthetic philosophy, we can dis-
tinguish at least two tests: the mixed question test and the synthetic test.
The mixed question test asks: Is your worldview consistent with and working
with other branches of knowledge? It is a demand for coherence between dif-
ferent disciplines, whenever each of them can make a contribution to the issue at
hand. It requires an awareness of relationships between disciplines, their subject
matter, and their limits. For example, a mixed question test involving historical or
scientific knowledge can discredit philosophical theories. Adler (1965, Chap. 12)
described the mixed question test in operation by comparing our common expe-
rience of material objects with the scientific description of elementary particles. He
concludes that one measure of the soundness of a philosophical theory or doctrine
is its ability to () reconcile what truth there is in a scientific theory with what
truth there is in a common-sense opinion and in the philosophical elucidation of
that opinion, when these several truths appear to come into conflict.
Today all first-order philosophical dimensions are mixed with other disciplines.
To conduct such an interdisciplinary effort, we need to pass the mixed question
test. We must know which disciplines we need to invoke to solve which problem.
The distinction between philosophical dimensions does not imply their separation
(Bahm 1980, p. 4). The same can be said for the distinction between philosophy
and science. We can distinguish them, but this does not imply that we should
separate them. This point is essential to tackle complex problems, and this explains
why the scope criteria are fundamental. Such synthetic philosophizing is more than
the philosophies of X that typify its critical dimension (4). As I noted earlier,
this synthetic dimension connects to first-order dimensions, which are successfully
conducted by doing philosophy with other branches of knowledge (Hansson
2008). If the mixed question test is violated, it leads to monodisciplinarity, which is
a nave approach to complex problems or to inconsistencies between disciplines.
The synthetic test asks: Is your second-order philosophizing ultimately
working for first-order philosophizing or synthesis? Critical philosophizing most
36 2 Criteria for Worldview Comparison
often fails to connect with first-order issues, and thus leads to esoteric knowledge.
For example, when studying epistemology, are we committed to the effective
production of knowledge to explain, predict, and control our world? Or are we
engaged in a debate among second-order knowledge experts? It is easy to lose
sight and sense of the traditional first-order philosophical enterprise. When this
second-order philosophizing is overemphasized, several things happen. First, its
scope in agenda is narrowed down considerably. Second, no connection with
common sense is found, which violates subjective consistency. Third, only one
philosophical dimension out of the six is considered. Similar reasoning holds for
the dialectical dimension, which needs somehow to reconnect with first-order
issues to be of any use. In summary, the second-order critical and dialectical
dimensions of philosophy work in the final instance at creating a synthesis between
descriptive, normative and practical philosophies.
Both continental and analytic philosophies fail this test. In continental philos-
ophy, first-order philosophizing is ignored or couched in an inaccessible concep-
tual vocabulary. Contemporary analytic and linguistic philosophies are focused on
technical second-order philosophizing and will most often fail to connect their
analyses to first-order dimensions. In both cases, philosophy becomes an esoteric
practice, reserved for a few intellectuals.
Let us now turn our attention again to the three worlds. How do they interact? How
may we deal with this tension between the objective, subjective, and intersub-
jective, not merely as independent sets of criteria but in their systemic interaction?
I will offer some tests to tackle this issue of integrating the three worlds (sum-
marized in Table 2.3).
Taking a birds-eye view of our criteria, we humans are involved in three kinds
of conflicts: against nature (objective), against ourselves (subjective), and against
others (intersubjective). We want to minimize those conflicts, or at least we want
tools to deal with them. More precisely, objective criteria require that the
worldview not be in friction with the outside world; subjective criteria require that
the worldview not be in friction with an individuals common knowledge and
actions; and intersubjective criteria require that the worldview minimizes friction
between individuals, and maximizes their synergistic interactions. In comparative
philosophy, Huston Smith (1957, p. 8) recapitulated that, generally, the West has
emphasized the natural problem (objective), India the psychological (subjective),
and China the social (intersubjective). This indicates that comparative philosophy
can be regarded as a pivotal starting point for satisfying criteria in the three worlds.
A worldview that fits well in the three worlds has more chances to be accepted,
appealing, and useful. Ideally, it would give rise to the following benefits:
A consistent conception of the world (objective benefit); a lifeworld providing a
meaning for life, useful for living a good life (subjective benefit); and a worldview
whose foundations are fit for a well-organized society, where few conflicts arise
2.3 Assessment Tests 37
collective utility. But, as the is-act test showed us, we need to be sure that our
values are not short-circuited in such an endeavor. If we emphasize intersubjective
criteria too much, we might hamper the quality of our world models. On the other
hand, relying exclusively on objective criteria to take decisions leads to a scien-
tistic worldview, ignoring the will and values of individuals, societies, and larger
organizations.
2.3.4 Summary
Let us examine the conflict between Intelligent Design (ID) and Flying Spaghetti
Monsterism (FSM-ism). In 2005, the Kansas State Board of Education required the
teaching of ID as an alternative to biological evolution in public schools. Aston-
ished by this decision, Bobby Henderson protested against it. He created a satirical
deity, the Flying Spaghetti Monster (FSM), supposedly responsible for the origin
of our universe. In an open letter to the Kansas School Board, he then proposed
that science classes should include: One third time for Intelligent Design, one
third time for Flying Spaghetti Monsterism, and one third time for logical con-
jecture based on overwhelming observable evidence (Henderson 2005). The
purpose of this action was to show that it makes no sense to teach ID in schools, or
at least no more sense than teaching FSM-ism.
With the help of our criteria, let us see whether we can confirm our intuitive
idea that FSM-ism is still less valid than ID. Although the theories are not
presented as worldviews, they underlie very different worldviews. Our criteria and
tests can thus be applied if we look at FSM-ism and ID in such a broader context.
Testing the Components. Regarding objective consistency, ID and FSM-ism
are comparable: they postulate a designer of the gaps that can resolve any con-
tradiction. Concerning the scientificity criteria, ID and FSM-ism are equally bad:
no scientific evidence supports either, which is the main point of this FSM satire.
Both are unscientific theories: biological evolution is most effectively researched
with the available scientific evidence, theories, conjectures, methods, and the like.
Still, ID arguments are more subtle than the FSM ones (for example they use the
notion of irreducible complexity instead of showing that the FSM was not very
bright in his unintelligent design).
The scope in agenda criterion tests the breadth of worldview questions tackled.
FSM-ism has a story of how the world came about (question (b)), and perhaps
where we are going (question (c)). But the ramifications of ID are much richer. ID
originated from creationism and thus has clear links with the God of monotheists.
Therefore, implicitly, supporters of ID have a religious agenda, which makes the
theory appealing to some. However imperfect and self-contradictory religions
sometimes are, they are full of recommendations and rituals concerning values
(question (d)) and actions (question (e)). FSM-ism does not pretend to offer
comparable values or prescriptions for action, to set against those gradually
gathered by religious traditions over centuries. Both FSM-ism and ID are feeble in
answering questions (a)(c), but FSM-ism has nothing much to say about ques-
tions (d) and (e) either. Therefore, ID has a greater scope in agenda.
In terms of subjective consistency, ID also scores much higher than the FSM
story. In ID, the identity of the designer is not even schematically related to a God.
The designer is thus a fuzzy concept open to many possible interpretations, and
such vagueness can contribute to creating a mysterious guru effect (Sperber
2010). In contrast, the Flying Spaghetti Monster is a very specific entity, with his
noodly appendage and his meatballs, defying common sense. In this respect, ID is
3.1 Religious Worldviews 41
benefit from the wisdom of religious authorities to make sense of their lives during
ceremonies in houses of worship.
For a religious worldview, the most important of the big three tests will be the
we-I test, because it is concerned with the cohesion of the individual with society
and other human beings. The worldview will only rarely be challenged by we-it
and it-I tests, which involve objective knowledge.
It is reductionist to speak about the religious worldview, as if it were unique.
Different world religions have differences of emphasis, which are especially
marked between Western, Indian, and Chinese religions (see e.g. Smith 1991).
Within a given religion, there are also important differences between individuals in
their belief systems. Psychologists have shown that there are as many ways to
believe in God as there are psychological developmental stages. Indeed, Fowler
(1981) has shown that there are stages of faith corresponding to Kohlbergs
(1981) stages of moral development and other developmental theories in
psychology.
To summarize, a religious worldview gives meaning, provides answers to
fundamental questions, and has a pragmatic value in terms of both psychological
benefits and social cohesion. One would have to be religiously attached to
objective values not to acknowledge those benefits!
However, it is both easy and healthy to criticize religions. The religious worldview
has few rational and objective mechanisms to resolve issues or disagreements.
This may explain why it can easily lead to the most primitive ways to solve
conflicts: war and physical violence. A religious worldview proposes few con-
nections to new scientific developments, and is thus non-adaptive. It was not until
1992 that Pope Jean-Paul II issued a declaration acknowledging the errors com-
mitted by the Catholic Church tribunal in judging Galileos heliocentric hypoth-
esis. In our era of accelerating scientific and technological change, we must
confess and repent our mistakes much more quickly. Otherwise, in case of doubt,
people of religion risk falling back into fundamentalism, i.e. the literal interpre-
tation of centuries-old scriptures.
As we already saw, religions score very low on objective criteria. In his book
The God Delusion (2006), Richard Dawkins makes a detailed and thorough case
for how religions fail to satisfy objective criteria. Religions also fail second-order
tests, and such a failure is grave. It means that the second-order philosophical
mindset is ignored. There is no critical dimension, no dialectical dimension. Only
some professional theologians will attempt to remedy those limitations, generally
with great difficulty. We shall discuss such a more philosophically minded attempt
toward a comprehensive theological worldview in Sect. 3.3.
A religious worldview is often weak when attempting to describe the world
(worldview questions (a)(c)). Furthermore, it will often use the gaps in scientific
44 3 Religious, Scientific, and Philosophical Worldviews
modeled by classical logic. Yet we need to understand the evolution of our world
in time. Dynamical mathematical models have long been and are still widely used
in science, but they often prove insufficient when dealing with complex systems.
General systems theory and cybernetics constitute a modern attempt to found a
universal dynamical language for science (see e.g. von Bertalanffy 1968; Boulding
1956). They provide general modeling tools (e.g. the state space approach) and
such concepts as system, control, feedback, black box, and so on, which can be
applied equally well in physics, chemistry, biology, psychology, sociology, or
elsewhere. Those concepts have proven their importance and fruitfulness in
engineering.
Traditionally, mathematical models based on physical laws are used to predict
the behavior of a system from a set of parameters, boundary conditions, and initial
conditions. These models are reductionist and have been developed with analytic
methods that split the problem into easier subproblems. However, when systems
become more complex and the number of interactions increases, a simple analytic
solution of the mathematical expressions is no longer feasible. Computer simula-
tions can then be used to predict the behavior of complex systems. These simula-
tions are based on a discretization of space (finite elements methods) and/or time
(simulation methods). It is then possible to run a simulation many times, varying the
parameters, and to derive general statistical trends. Computer simulations have
become indispensable for the design of modern systems and structures. In Chap. 7,
we shall see that they hold great promise for the future of science.
System models and computer simulations are very successful in engineering
science. Nevertheless, they have limitations when dealing with nonlinear and
highly complex systems. In the case of chaotic systems, for instance, the pre-
dictability of the behavior is in practice very limited. More generally, if mathe-
matical models are not available, a qualitative approach is the first step. A more
general problem-solving perspective allows one to logically structure and clarify
this qualitative approach.
The general idea of evolution, which Darwin expressed through the concept of
natural selection (variation and selection), has infiltrated almost every scientific
field. This general application of evolutionary principles is known as Universal
Darwinism (e.g. Dawkins 1983; Campbell 2011) or Universal Selection Theory
(Cziko 1995). This spread of evolutionary theories can be illustrated with disci-
plines like evolutionary psychology, where mental and psychological traits are
explained through evolution (e.g. Wright 1994; Barkow et al. 1992); the closely
related field of evolutionary ethics, which focuses on the appearance of moral
traits; evolutionary economics, which emphasizes complex interactions, compe-
tition, and resource constraints (e.g. Boulding 1991); evolutionary epistemology,
arguing that knowledge can be seen as a result of a natural selection process (e.g.
Campbell 1974; Gontier 2010); evolutionary computation, inspired by evolution-
ary processes to design new kinds of algorithms (e.g. Fogel 1995); neural
Darwinism in neuroscience, proposed to explain the evolution of cerebral con-
nectivity (Edelman 1987); and even a hypothesis of cosmological natural selection
in cosmology (Smolin 1992), which we shall discuss in detail in Chap. 8.
3.2 Scientific Worldviews 47
Evolution has thus largely crossed the border of biological evolution, and can be
seen as a general theory of change. For example, complexity theorist Eric Chaisson
wrote a history of our cosmos, based on scientific findings, where evolution is its
core engine. He defines it as any process of formation, growth and change with
time, including an accumulation of historical information; in its broadest sense,
both developmental and generative change (Chaisson 2001, p. 232).
In fact, we should not be surprised by this situation, since thinking in evolu-
tionary terms simply means thinking with time, and more precisely about how any
kind of structure and function can emerge from interactions occurring in time.
What are the limitations of purely scientific worldviews? We saw that the mission of
science is traditionally focused on modeling the world, i.e. on answering worldview
questions (a)(c) in an objective manner. We saw that a religious worldview is weak
in its answers to those three worldview questions because it is generally more
focused on the two other questions regarding actions and values. On the other side, a
scientific worldview is incomplete in the sense that it ignores the integration of the
model it constructs with the more philosophical problems involving the nature and
meaning of values, actions, and knowledge (respectively questions (d), (e), and (f)).
Here too those questions are not exclusively philosophical. But disciplinary
boundaries are less of an issue if we take a problem-solving perspective. Indeed, we
saw that there exist the fields of evolutionary ethics (addressing question (d)) and
evolutionary epistemology (addressing question (f)), as well as a lot of management
literature addressing the question of how to act (question (e)).
Testing the Components. The scientist has a mindset focused solely on
objective criteria, and scientific worldviews score the highest on such criteria. But
if we look at subjective and intersubjective criteria, scientists who tell stories about
their personal emotional experiences are, fortunately, not taken seriously. This is
an important limitation of purely scientific worldviews.
Testing the Dimensions and the Big Three. Because science is not concerned
with ought questions, both the is-ought and the ought-act tests fail. Some
normative principles need to be developed to complete a scientific worldview, if
only to explicate its commitment to efficiency values only, and hence to show that
it is only interested in the is-act test. An axiology, whether philosophical or
theological, is an indispensable complement to a scientific worldview.
Out of the big three tests, the I-it and we-it tests are directly applicable in a
scientific worldview. Since science and religion both focus on first-order questions,
the critical, dialectical, and synthetic tests will only be attempted by philosophi-
cally minded scientists or professional theologians. Let us describe philosophical
worldviews in more details.
48 3 Religious, Scientific, and Philosophical Worldviews
Given our short analysis, a fruitful open discussion between scientific and religious
worldviews should ideally lead to either:
1. A religious worldview that is more objective and consistent with scientific
findings;
2. A scientific worldview complemented with subjective and intersubjective
perspectives, with a larger scope in agenda to include an axiology and a
praxeology, as well as second-order dimensions.
Direction (1) is taken by theologians working toward integrating science and
religion to build a comprehensive worldview. They invite progress to higher levels of
spiritual intelligence. Notable examples of such developments are the religious
philosophies of de Chardin (1959) or Whitehead (1930). A similar modern attempt in
this direction was proposed by Michael Dowd in his book Thank God for Evolution
(Dowd 2007), where he proposes an accessible integration of science and Chris-
tianity by reinterpreting Christianity in the light of evolutionary theory. The result is
an inspiring synthesis of objective, subjective, and intersubjective criteria. A similar
interpretative effort to integrate modern evolutionary thinking would certainly
greatly benefit other world religions. From a cosmological perspective, an effort to
construct a comprehensive theological worldview is made in the book On the Moral
Nature of the Universe: Theology, Cosmology, and Ethics (Murphy and Ellis 1996).
What about direction (2)? It is interesting to find that scientific popularization is
part of the solution. At its best, popularization makes science meet some of the
subjective and intersubjective criteria. Typically, science popularizers trigger the
emotions of readers by telling fascinating stories about scientists and their lives
and theories. But questions of values and actions remain unanswered. How can we
build a naturalistic worldview on rational grounds? This is normally the task of
non-theist philosophical systems. One way is to start from a scientific worldview
and extend it philosophically to integrate more philosophical propositions
involving the nature and meaning of values and actions (respectively worldview
questions (d) and (e)). For example, Laszlo (1972a, Chap. 13) develops a frame-
work for normative ethics that fits in with scientific knowledge. In a similar
manner, the praxeological component could certainly be enhanced by integrating
insights from problem-solving, management sciences, operational research, etc.
In my opinion, it is urgent that efforts be coordinated to build such philo-
sophical worldviews, firmly based on objective criteria, and yet taking seriously
into account subjective and intersubjective criteria. Such a philosophical approach
would be based on a scientific worldview, but completed with an axiology and
praxeology, and hence successfully passing the is-ought and ought-act tests, also
augmented with second-order dimensions of philosophizing, in the spirit of syn-
thetic philosophy.
3.3 Philosophical Worldviews 49
Both directions (1) and (2) aim at constructing more comprehensive and
coherent worldviews, which then become synthetic worldviews. More precisely,
this leads to two kinds of worldviews, a comprehensive theological worldview and
a comprehensive philosophical worldview (Carvalho 2006, p. 123). Surprisingly,
these two endeavors have a similar aim, but just use different starting points,
means, and criteria.
In Parts II and III, I shall take the direction of a comprehensive philosophical
worldview and not of a comprehensive theological worldview, which would
require a further qualification in theology. In the philosophizing that follows,
I prioritize objective criteria (objective consistency, scientificity, and scope) to
begin the construction of a coherent and comprehensive worldview. More pre-
cisely, the cosmological perspective requires that the scope in level depth be
maximally wide in time and space, embracing the whole universe.
Afterwards, when those objective criteria are maximally satisfied, I turn to
subjective and intersubjective criteria to make the worldview successfully appli-
cable in the conduct of a good life and in the organization of a good society. The
pursuit of a good life and a good society can then be harmonized with cosmic
evolution. However, in this work, those further themes will not be as central as the
objective endeavor.
What if we all held the same worldview? We might fear the implication that we
would all think and act in the same way. This would only be true only if we
consider first-order knowledge of a worldview alone. However, as we encourage
second and third order knowledge, our thinking changes and improves. Addi-
tionally, values in a worldview are more like a guide, giving very general rec-
ommendations. There are always different roads to the same destination, thus
leaving freedom for action.
Furthermore, at the present time, the danger is rather in worldview fragmen-
tation than in uniqueness. Bahm (1979, p. 101) expressed it well: the problems
facing us today are more those of achieving greater unity, through a new complex
organic synthesis, than of achieving more diversity. This dilemma between
uniformity and diversity is also well expressed in (Aerts et al. 1994, p. 24): we
have learned to appreciate variety and multiformity as values, and hence we do not
want to strive for one unique worldview. But neither do we want to resign our-
selves to the present situation of fragmentation. We can resolve this dilemma by
striving for a unique worldview in first-order philosophizing, while continuously
practicing the dialectical and critical dimensions of philosophizing, to constantly
improve and integrate disparate worldviews.
On the other hand, what reasons can we find to argue for a unique worldview?
First of all, we could say that if reality is one, and a worldview is an objective
description of reality, then there can be only one sound worldview. We can
immediately object that a worldview as we have defined it also incorporates
values, which are chosen, and thus not objective. Still, scientific progress and the
scientificity criterion leave us fewer choices for components (a)(c). Another
argument is that a homogeneous society has fewer conflicts (Durkheim 1893).
Thus, sharing values and aims will reduce conflicts and enable us to conduct more
elaborate collaborative projects. Despite the postmodern emphasis on cultural
relativity, there are values common to all civilizations. As supported by empirical
research about the factors determining what makes people happy (Heylighen and
Bernheim 2000), murder, theft, rape, lying, and so on are negative values in all
societies, whereas health, wealth, friendship, honesty, safety, freedom, and
equality are positive ones.
Generally, a homogeneous system is easier to control and has fewer conflicts,
because the elements have the same goals. The word control, when used in a
system-theoretic sense, has no negative or totalitarian connotation. Thus, less
diversity is easier to control. However, a consequence of Ashbys (1956) law of
requisite variety is that more diversity allows more adaptability (see also
Gershenson 2007). Therefore, it seems that a trade-off between diversity and
uniformity has to be found.
3.3 Philosophical Worldviews 51
with concepts from a coherent worldview and then extend them to make it more
comprehensive.
I stress again that this analysis is based on an analogy. Let us therefore point out
some of its limitations. The analogs of axioms here are worldview questions, not
propositions. So the analogy does not imply that we presuppose foundationalism,
in the sense that we hold some propositions as (foundational) dogmas. The
foundational aspect is that worldview questions are fundamental, but we make no
presuppositions about how to answer them.
We can also object that the analogy breaks down because of the well known
limitation theorems, which state that no formal system containing at least Peanos
axioms of elementary arithmetic can be both coherent and complete. We do not
exclude that a trade-off may be needed to balance coherence and completeness.
But we are looking for heuristics, and this analogy gives us some clues about what
an ideal worldview should come close to.
Worldview questions as a system of equations. Another interesting mathe-
matical analogy is to compare worldview questions with a system of equations.
Worldview questions are related, as are the equations in a system of equations.
Wang (1986, p. 210) used this analogy when he wrote that solving philosophical
problems is comparable to solving an intricate set of simultaneous equations
which may have no solution at all or only relative solutions in the sense that we
have often to choose between giving more weight to satisfying (more adequately)
one equation or another. This implies that we might have to give more weight to
one component or another when answering the questions. Ideally, a philosopher
should limit this bias, or at least be aware of it. He or she might prefer to answer
certain worldview questions, or more generally use a specific set of cognitive
values, which can be translated into the weighting of the nine criteria we
examined.
This analogy also implicitly assumes that there is a common language for the
different equations. For the worldview questions, this would imply having a shared
language for answers to the different components. We saw that systems theory
could fulfill this role for bridging sciences. Its concepts can also be used in phi-
losophy (see e.g. Laszlo 1972a; Heylighen 2000b).
Worldview questions as problems to solve. This third analogy may be the
most interesting and useful way to look at the worldview questions. Nicholas
Rescher argued that the most valuable history of philosophy to write would be one
explicating the dialectic of problems (or questions) and answers (Rescher 2001,
Chap. 2). If we assume that philosophy is problem solving, then why not use the
principles of the latter (see e.g. Newell and Simon 1972; Polya 2004) to rephrase
and resolve philosophical problems? The classical literature on general problem
solving methods proposes solving a problem by following this sequence of steps:
1. Understand the problem
2. Conceive a plan
3. Execute the plan
4. Examine the solution.
54 3 Religious, Scientific, and Philosophical Worldviews
More concretely and practically, how can we express aspects of our worldview and
listen openly to different ones, especially when we feel involved emotionally?
The nonviolent communication (NVC) process (Rosenberg 2003) is very well
suited for this. Let us see why. NVC is first and foremost an approach to com-
munication that insists on acknowledging the universality of human emotions, thus
fulfilling the emotionality criterion. The four steps for speaking in NVC are:
(i) Observe (without judging) what affects you,
(ii) Express your feelings triggered by this observation,
(iii) Express the needs, values, desires, etc. that create your feelings, and
(iv) Request from your interlocutor concrete actions to enrich your life.
It is remarkable that these steps correspond to worldview components, admit-
tedly at some level of abstraction. More precisely, what we observe (i) reflects how
we model the world (questions (a), (b), (c)). Our feelings, needs, values, and
desires (steps (ii) and (iii)) constitute our genetically and culturally inherited value
system (question (d)). Finally, the actions we perform and request (iv) reveal our
implicit or explicit praxeology (question (e)). The result is that when we use NVC
to speak, we present clearly to others an aspect of our worldview.
Similarly, when using nonviolent communication to listen, we try to decipher
and understand the others worldview, without judging it. The four steps are then
for us to be attentive to:
(i) What he observes,
(ii) What he feels,
(iii) What his needs and values are, and
(iv) What actions he requests to fulfill his needs.
In NVC, there is also a general requirement to avoid facile judging dichotomies
such as true/false, right/wrong, or good/bad. This induces a major shift in com-
munication. Indeed, this forces us to explicitly justify our knowledge and beliefs in
terms of needs or values. This communication process is utterly simple and very
easy to understand. But the real challenge is to apply it in practice, where it can
3.3 Philosophical Worldviews 55
bring remarkable results. For example, let us imagine what a neuroscientist could
say to a religious person:
You are just plain wrong, there is no evidence whatsoever that God created human
consciousness. Open your eyes to evolutionary theory: its clear that a mechanistic scheme
of explanation is under way.
By using such language, one can truly say what is on ones mind and in ones
heart, and also listen to other viewpoints to start a constructive dialog. Implicitly,
one can start to ask such questions as: What is the worldview of my interlocutor?
What are his observations, feelings, needs, and requests telling me about his
worldview? What criteria are most important to him? On which worldview
components do we disagree? Why and where do we disagree?
theory will discredit much of what follows. In that case, the scaffolding presented
in Part I would prove very useful to understand why the worldview I present failed,
to correct it, or to build a new one. This part was intended to help us in adapting or
updating our worldviews in a transparent way. The agenda, criteria, and tests
provide scaffolding for constructing and repairing philosophical worldviews.
In Parts II and III, we reformulate, contextualize, and focus the philosophical
worldview questions into versions compatible with modern science.
The reader might wonder why I do not address directly the other worldview
questions about ontology, epistemology, and praxeology. They are also important,
which is why I have answered them by stating my positions on them (see
Appendix I). But the big questions of the beginning and the end require us to focus
on the mixed questions, to provide models of the ultimate past (explanation) and
ultimate future (prediction), which can become meaningful with a theory of value
(axiology).
Open Questions
An architect does not leave his scaffolding after he has constructed a building. But
here the situation is different. Worldview construction is more like a building site,
in constant construction and reconstruction. Leaving some scaffolding is not the
most aesthetic practice, but is very useful to facilitate and stimulate further
improvements. The Open Questions sections at the end of each part or main
chapter provide questions for further research. Such open questions are even
necessary if we take our analogy with thermodynamics and the idea of open
philosophical systems seriously (see Sect. 2.2.3).
Philosophical agendas. Studying philosophical agendas is key to understanding
different philosophical schools, trends, and traditions. It would be well worth
writing a history of philosophical agendas, to better understand their evolution.
More criteria. The list of criteria we presented is a starting point, to be further
refined and elaborated by other philosophers, possibly with different or addi-
tional criteria. The criteria may also be refined or improved through studies in
the history of philosophy. Conversely, the criteria can help to describe the
complexity of the history of philosophy.
Worldviews and developmental psychology. It is important to understand how
the worldview of an individual changes through his or her life. We have not
integrated developmental psychology fully into our worldview framework. This
is something that remains to be done. Some useful starting points could be the
works of Gebser (1986); Kohlberg (1981, 1984); Koltko-Rivera (2004); Laske
(2008), etc. It would thus be possible to tackle questions such as: How do you
evolve and develop your own worldview? What will trigger a change in your
worldview? How much are you attached to your worldview? How can you
change from one worldview to another?
Open Questions 57
Modern science can successfully connect physical and chemical evolution with
biological and cultural evolution (e.g., Chaisson 2001; De Duve 1995). Thus, it
seems reasonable to assume that science is an effective method to understand
cosmic evolution. The problem of harmony in the universe has thus shifted to its
beginning: How did it all start? Why did the universe start with these initial
conditions, parameters, and laws, and not others? Was the initial universe fine-
tuned for the emergence of life and intelligence?
The belief in God allowed western thinkers to understand why the Laws of
Nature are as they are and not otherwise. Scientific activity ultimately consisted
of discovering the Laws of Nature set up by God. However, now that many
scientists no longer believe in God, they lack an explanation of the origin of the
laws of nature (Davies 1998).
Nicholas Rescher (1985, p. 230) summarized alternative ways to answer the
question of why natures system of laws is as it is:
1. The question is illegitimate (rejectionism).
2. The question is legitimate, but inherently unsolvable (mystificationism).
3. The question is legitimate and solvable. But the resolution lies in the fact that there just
is no explanation. The worlds law structure is in the final analysis reasonless. The laws
just are as they are; that is all there is to it. And this brute fact eliminates any need for
explanation (arationalism).
4. The question is legitimate and solvable, and a satisfactory explanation indeed exists.
But it resides in an explanatory principle that is itself outside the range of (normal)
lawsas it must be to avoid vitiating circularity (transcendentalism).
Rejectionism (1) will not make science and rationality progress. Although I am
aware that (1) is a common philosophical position, I am committed to answer
childishly simple first-order questions. I do not want to dismiss those questions too
quickly as meaningless. Mystificationism (2) does not make science and rationality
progress either. Only if it could be proven that the question is indeed unsolvable
would it be an impressive result, similar to negative results in mathematical logic,
60 Part II: The Beginning of the Universe
like the proof of the impossibility of constructing the quadrature of the circle.
Arationalism (3) is equivalent to saying that all explanations will fail. Without
arguments to support this view, we cannot take it seriously. Transcendentalism (4)
invites an external and most likely supernatural explanation, which is not some-
thing we presuppose in this book. Rescher mentions a fifth option, the position of
rationalism. It states that the question is legitimate and solvable, and the resolution
lies in the fact that there is an explanation, yet to be defined and found.
Where does it all come from? Before attempting to answer this question, we ask,
in Chap. 4: Where will a satisfying solution to Where does it all come from?
come from? The answer is from our brain! This is why I conduct a cognitive
and philosophical study to understand our cognitive expectations for any expla-
nation of the origin of the universe. Of course, answers to the origins also very
much depend on our available scientific theories. But exploring and better
understanding how our cognition functions in this ultimate quest will help us to
unveil our biases and preferences in selecting explanatory models. Specifically,
I argue in Chap. 4 that there are two cognitive attractors that we use to explain the
beginning of the universe, the point and the cycle. Building scientific models is a
process involving two equally important items, an external system to be under-
stood, and an observer who constructs a model of that system. By better under-
standing the structure and functioning of the observermodel relationship, we have
better chances to avoid biases and confusions between reality and our models.
In Chap. 5, I focus on a common feature of all cosmological models: they bring
in free parameters that are not specified by the model. Can we reduce their
numbers? How can we bind them? Which strategy should we use? I shall examine
physical, mathematical, computational, and biological approaches, bringing dif-
ferent perspectives on this fundamental problem. This multiple analysis will
prevent us from falling into any kind of reductionism. Moreover, an understanding
of free parameters is a necessary step toward making sense of the fine-tuning
debate.
In Chap. 6, we shall see that some free parameters also have puzzling properties.
If we vary them even slightly, no complexity as we know it in our universe
emerges. Our cosmological models display parameter sensitivity. This suggests
that our universe is somehow very special. These arguments are known as
fine-tuning arguments and are widely debated in science, philosophy, and theol-
ogy. Unfortunately, they are often confused with other related issues. Many
researchers, including leading scientists, commit and repeat fine-tuning fallacies. I
clarify and untangle those issues, which are necessary steps for the new research
discipline of Artificial Cosmogenesis, a scientifically promising and concrete way
to study the emergence of complexity and the fine-tuning issue.
Chapter 4
Origins of the Origin
Abstract This chapter first distinguishes five challenges for ultimate explana-
tions: epistemological, metaphysical, thermodynamic, causal, and that of infinities.
In a Kantian manner, I then turn the question of the origin upside down and ask:
What do we cognitively expect to be a satisfying answer to the ultimate origin of
the universe? I argue that our explanations fall into two kinds of cognitive
attractors: the point explanation (e.g. God or Big Bang) and the cycle explanation
(e.g. cyclical cosmological models). Exploring and better understanding how our
cognition functions in this ultimate quest will help us to unveil our biases and
preferences in selecting explanatory models. I critically discuss objections against
cycles, such as infinite regress or that an infinite universe would necessarily imply
that we would have identical copies of ourselves somewhere or somewhen in this
universe or another. I conclude that cyclical explanations are more promising than
point explanations, but also that less trivial cognitive attractors are logically
possible.
When thus reflecting [on man as being the result of blind chance or necessity] I feel
compelled to look to a First Cause having an intelligent mind in some degree analogous to
that of man and I deserve to be called a Theist. But then arises the doubt, can the mind of
man, which had, as I fully believe, been developed from a mind as low as that possessed by
the lowest animal, be trusted when it draws such grand conclusions?
Charles Darwin (1887a, p. 282)
All civilizations have developed myths for explaining the origin of the world. They
provide answers to the fundamental worldview question: Where does it all come
from? (b). In our modern societies dominated by science, competition between
myths is replaced by the competition of a wide variety of cosmological models.
It is not our aim to review those modern cosmological models (see e.g. Heller 2009
for a recent and excellent overview).
Tackling the question of our ultimate origins, we encounter five puzzling
challenges, epistemological, metaphysical, thermodynamic, causal, and that of
infinity in physics. They can be represented by the following questions: What
are the epistemological characteristics of an ultimate theory? Why not nothing?
Where does the energy of the universe comes from, and how will it end? What was
the causal origin of the universe? Is the universe infinite?
Instead of tackling those questions frontally, our approach in this chapter is
cognitive. As Darwin reminds us, our brain is a product of evolution. To what
extent can we trust it to draw conclusions about the origin of the universe? What
do we cognitively expect to be a satisfying answer to the ultimate origin?
I shall focus here mainly on the causal problem. Was there a first cause? If so, is
it a point-like explanation? If not, should we seek a cycle-like explanation? What
are the limitations and biases of those two explanations?
I first outline the five major challenges ultimate explanations must face. I then
show that there are two cognitive attractors on which ultimate explanations tend to
fall, the point and the cycle. They are similar to the fixed point and the limit cycle
in dynamical system theory. They can be described as cognitive attractors in the
sense that our ultimate explanations tend to fall into them.
When no empirical data is available, we are left with theoretical reasoning. And
when physical theories leave us dubious, we are left only with logic and meta-
physics. Before the rise of modern cosmological models a century ago, talking
about the origin of the universe was chiefly a metaphysical effort. It still is, but it is
rarely recognized as such. The reason is that we need to take with us some major
results of modern cosmology as we dive into metaphysical waters.
I do not aim to solve the five challenges that I present below. They are
supremely difficult and each of them would deserve a book of its own. However,
we shall see them reappear later, in Chap. 8, with some possible resolutions. My
aim here is simply to formulate the challenges clearly, and to distinguish them
from one another. This is a valuable step in itself, because they are often confused.
There are two additional challenges to ultimate explanations that we shall
examine in greater detail, namely the unsatisfactory fact that cosmological models
have free parameters (Chap. 5) and the open question whether those free param-
eters are fine-tuned or not (Chap. 6).
4.1.1 Epistemological
When we venture into the idea of an ultimate theory, some basic explanatory
principles can be shown to be mutually contradictory. Nicholas Rescher wrote a
remarkable article (Rescher 2000) in which he carefully analyzed the logical and
4.1 Five Challenges for Ultimate Explanations 63
Of course, one cannot derive the actual infinite from the potential infinite, just
as we cannot derive explanatory comprehensiveness from the principle of suffi-
cient reason. We can write these limitations more formally:
1
The reader who dislikes logical formulas can easily ignore them, since they are also explained
in the text. The courageous reader may like to note the notational conventions I use:
A: Existential quantifier. Read there exists
V: Universal quantifier. Read for all
&: Logical symbol for conjunction (AND operator)
:: Logical symbol for negation (NOT operator)
0: Logical symbol for non-deducibility. u0 w, reads w is not deducible from u.
64 4 Origins of the Origin
There is thus a huge gap between the principle of sufficient reason and the
ultimate theory, a gap similar to the one between the potential and the actual
infinite.
The second fundamental property expected from an ultimate theory is its
explanatory finality. Let us call the ultimate theory T*. Its explanatory finality is
the property that there is no further or deeper explanation than T* itself. Formally:
X
:9t t T & t 6 T F
Now, a very basic principle that any explanation must respect is that of
explanatory noncircularity. It states that no explanation can invoke the fact that is
to be explained. Formally:
X
:9t t T N
P
The problem is that explanatory comprehensiveness (C) entails T* T*,
which contradicts (N). There is another way to derive this contradiction:
P
1. 9t tP T by PSR
2. T T from 1 by Finality (F)
This reasoning simply means that if we apply the PSR to the ultimate theory, the
ultimate theory must explain itself, given its finality (F). And a theory that explains
itself is circular and thus in contradiction with explanatory noncircularity (N).
We can conclude that a circular explanation or an infinite regress cannot be
avoided in the context of an ultimate theory. Rescher concludes that ultimate
theorists must jettison explanatory noncircularity (N). Nevertheless, infinite
regresses can but need not be vicious (Gratton 1994). So, it is also logically
possible to replace an ultimate theory by a non-vicious infinite regress. For
example, Smith (1987) has shown that an actual infinite past is logically possible.
Rescher takes another road, and develops a solution where he not only con-
siders inferential explanations but adds a wider systemic explanatory mechanism.
With this added explanatory scheme, he avoids a vicious circle and creates instead
a virtuous circle of self-substantiation.
4.1.2 Metaphysical
[Metaphysics] is the oldest of the sciences, and would still survive, even if all the rest were
swallowed up in the abyss of an all-destroying barbarism.
(Kant 1781, B XIV)
Why not nothing? Those three words compose the most puzzling metaphysical
issue. They question the brute fact of existence. This formulation is a shorter version
of Leibniz (1714, Sect. 7) question: Why is there something rather than nothing?
4.1 Five Challenges for Ultimate Explanations 65
The best treatment I know of this question was provided by Leo Apostel in his
article Why not nothing? (1999). I refer the reader to this paper for further
reflections and to (Kuhn 2007) for a panorama of possible answers to this question.
As Kant famously wrote above, metaphysical questions are unavoidable.
4.1.3 Thermodynamic
4.1.4 Causal
What caused the universe to be? Did the universe cause itself? Was there a first
cause, a God or another first cause? If not, is there a cyclic process at play? Are we
allowed to imagine an infinite causal chain? Wouldnt we find ourselves with an
infinite regression fallacy?
Is the concept of cause itself applicable? Doesnt it presupposes the existence
of time or space-time? There is good reason to challenge the usual meaning of
cause or time at densities and energies occurring during the Big Bang era,
where the structure of space-time was altered.
If we wish to follow our philosophical criterion of scientificity, we must avoid
unscientific theorizing. That is, when an issue can be treated with scientific means,
we use those means. What is the scientific way to tackle the causal structure of the
66 4 Origins of the Origin
4.1.5 Infinity
Cosmologists see there is room for a lot of infinities in the Universe. Many are of the
potential variety the Universe might be infinite in size, face an infinite future lifetime,
or contain an infinite number of atoms or stars.
(Barrow 2007a, p. 28)
Only an infinite sequence of finite causes may replace the notion of God.
(Heller 2009, p. 105)
Michel Bitbol wrote a valuable paper (2004) about origin and creation. As it was
published in French, I recapitulate its core message in what follows. Bitbol is
specialist both in quantum mechanics and in the philosophy of Immanuel Kant,
which has led to colleagues jokingly calling him a Kantum mechanician. In his
paper, Bitbol distinguishes between origins with or without foundation. The first
origin needs a starting point, a cause which itself does not need another cause.
4.2 The Point as a Cognitive Attractor 67
This idea of a starting point, which I call a point cognitive attractor, or simply the
point, seems a satisfactory way to approach the question of the origins. Such a
point takes shape with two successful ideas for the origins: God and the Big Bang.
The origin with a foundation has a causal and juridical meaning. The causal
nuance demands a first or ultimate cause. Indeed, if the first cause is itself caused
by something else, then of course it is no longer a first cause. This is why this first
cause must be causa sui, cause in itself. This is mandatory to avoid an infinite
regress. This illustrates again the tension between the desire for a final and
comprehensive ultimate theory and the desire to avoid a circular explanation.
This avoidance of infinite regressions was Kants chief justification for the
theses to solve the antinomies he describes in the Critique of Pure Reason.
In its juridical meaning, the origin is a creation point, a deliberate act implying
a responsibility. In legal reasoning, one attributes responsibility for an act to the
nearest intentional agent that provokes a particular chain of causes and effects.
This is essential to stop somewhere in the causal tree, which otherwise could be
extended down to the origin of the universe. For example, in the crash of a
Concorde airliner on July 25, 2000, a tire exploded after running over a 40 cm
metal strip that had fallen during the previous planes takeoff. Who should be held
responsible? The tire manufacturer? The pilot who didnt see the metal strip? The
airports runway maintenance service? The court ruled that John Taylor, the
mechanic who had attached the metal strip that fell from the previous plane, was
responsible. Taylors act of attaching the metal strip, but not firmly enough, ini-
tiated a causal chain of events that led to the crash of the Concorde.
In such situations, Bitbol speaks of heteronomy, since the triggering cause
stands out against the normal causal chain. As we shall see with the cyclic cog-
nitive attractor, this is contrasted with autonomy, where all causes are internal.
Heteronomy implies an asymmetry in the causal chain, where an intentional act
triggers a discontinuity in the causal tree. Such juridical reasoning roots the causal
tree at a point. In the case of the Concorde crash, the court decided it all started
with John Taylor. What about the universe? How did it get started? Two possible
foundational points are God and the Big Bang.
Judaism introduced God as a creator, putting the universe in the past, as a definite
event. Furthermore, for Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, time is linear, not cyclic.
Gods creation is revealed in the sequential unfolding of creation, fall, incarnation,
redemption, and judgment. Thus the creation story has a beginning, a middle, and
an end (Davies 2002, p. 42).
68 4 Origins of the Origin
God has the power to put infinity in quarantine. Infinity is concealed in a three-
letter word: God. Furthermore, we can reassure ourselves that we cannot fully
grasp Gods infinity, because He is a supernatural being. With our finite and
limited mind, we cannot really make sense of Gods infinity. Such a line of
thinking succeeds in avoiding an infinite regress, since infinity is condensed into a
single concept, rather than let loose in an unfathomable infinite causal chain.
The problem of the ultimate explanation has then shifted to a theological one.
The inquiring believer can still ask: Where did God come from? What was God
doing before he created the universe? To make this logic watertight, theologians
add that God is causa sui, or self-caused. Furthermore, the thermodynamic issue
remains. How did the energy transfer from God to the universe occur? Is there a
separation? Is God a being, or being itself? Is God the energy-matter of the
universe, as in some pantheistic interpretations? Although theological reasoning
could resolve these issues, they involve a supernatural explanation, which a non-
theist philosopher by definition does not address. Is there an alternative?
The Big Bang is often conceived as a space-time point or singularity. This con-
ception is debatable, since it depends on the specific cosmological model whether
a singularity did or did not occur (Ellis 2007a, p. 1235). But could Big Bang
models have the equivalent of Gods causa sui? Quentin Smith argued in a paper
titled The uncaused beginning of the universe (1988) that one can solve the
causal challenge without referring to a supernatural being. Following heated
debates between atheists and theists, Smith wrote another paper, The reason the
universe exists is that it caused itself to exist (1999), presenting three ways for the
universe to cause itself to begin to exist.
A more precise cosmological model was developed by Gott and Li (1998), in
which closed time-like curves solved Einsteins field equations and made the
question of an earliest point in time meaningless: [A]sking what was the earliest
point might be like asking what is the easternmost point on the Earth. You can
keep going east around and around the Earththere is no eastern-most point.
So it may be possible to quarantine or avoid an infinite set of causes at the
beginning of the universe, as an alternative to Hellers proposal quoted above that
only an infinite sequence of finite causes may replace the notion of God.
4.3 The Cycle as a Cognitive Attractor 69
Cycles have remarkable properties. They are without bounds or author and are
self-sustaining and autonomous. The importance of cyclical thinking can be seen
in different disciplines. The metaphilosophy I described earlier (see Sect. 2.1.1) is
rooted in cyclical and self-sustaining principles. In mathematics, recursive proofs
are fundamental. In linguistics, Saussure realized that the meaning of words is
given by a network of mutually defining meanings. In psychology, Piaget
emphasized that objects and representational schemes are mutually defined. In
biology, Maturana and Varela introduced the concept of autopoiesis to mean self
(auto-) creation or production (poiesis). In systems theory and engineering, posi-
tive and negative feedback loops are crucial for understanding and steering
complex processes. In stoic cosmogonies, the world goes through cycles of
change, from chaos to order, until a catastrophe brings everything back to chaos
again. Such a cyclic cosmogony admits no absolute beginning, no permanent
background, and no end.
The cycle is also an attractor for evolutionary psychology reasons (Davies 2002,
pp. 4142). In our past, survival depended on harmonizing our lives with natural
cycles in nature, such as diurnal cycles, menstrual cycles, astronomical cycles, or
seasonal cycles. It is not surprising that many creation myths are cyclical, such as
in Buddhism or Hinduism. Another fundamental cycle is the life cycle. In higher
organisms, it is a more complex version of the cycle, which involves reproduction
with a blueprint and variations. However, the life cycle is certainly less acceptable
cognitively, because we cannot predict fully its outcome. There is no strict repe-
tition. In Darwins famous words, endless forms most beautiful and most won-
derful have been, and are being, evolved (1859).
Yet the notorious chicken and egg paradox remains. Which came first, the
chicken that laid the egg or the egg that hatched the chicken? We might unwit-
tingly introduce such paradoxes by the very formulation of our questions about the
origin of the universe. The chicken-and-egg problem was solved by evolutionary
theory, which unfolds the long history of life on Earth before an organism such as
a chicken appeared. In a similar way that evolutionary theory introduced a broader
context to settle the chicken-and-egg paradox, could a broader theory explain the
origin of the universe? We shall develop such a philosophical scenario of repro-
ducing universes in Chap. 8.
70 4 Origins of the Origin
Cyclical universes with successive Big Bang expansion phases and Big Crunch
contracting phases are not favored by current observations. Since 1998, observa-
tions support not only that the universe is expanding but also that this expansion is
accelerating (Riess et al. 1998). But the fashion for ever-expanding or closed
universe models seems to be cycling too (see e.g. Dyson 2002, p. 149). So it is
certainly wise not to dismiss cosmological models too quickly.
In the 1920s, relativistic cosmology showed that a static eternal universe would
be difficult to keep static without ad hoc fixes. Friedman (1922, 1924) showed that
cosmological solutions to Einsteins equations were unstable, leading to preferred
solutions with expanding or contracting universes.
It is tempting to accept the idea of an oscillating universe, because it seems to
solve both the causal and the thermodynamic challenge. On the one hand, we can
assume that all the energy of the contracting universe is reused in the next
expansion phase. On the other hand, the causal challenge is solved by the cycle
itself. However, Tolman (1934) studied oscillating universes and showed that as
the cycle repeats, universes grow bigger and bigger. If we apply this result to the
past, it would make universes smaller and smaller in radius down to a tiny point, as
in classical Big Bang models. The infinite regress into the past doesnt work
because we start out from a point. So even if oscillating universes can solve the
thermodynamic challenge, the causal challenge has merely been shifted to a point
and remains unmet.
On the other hand, cyclical universes also open the way to avoid Tolmans
assumption that thermodynamics would hold across universal cycles. As Davies
(1994, p. 146) pointed out, there may be a way out:
The conclusion seems inescapable that any cyclic universe that allows physical structures
and systems to propagate from one cycle to the next will not evade the degenerative
influences of the second law of thermodynamics. There will still be a heat death. One way
to sidestep this dismal conclusion is to suppose that the physical conditions at the bounce
are so extreme that no information about earlier cycles can get through to the next. All
preceding physical objects are destroyed, all influences annihilated. In effect, the universe
is reborn entirely from scratch.
This way to solve the thermodynamic challenge was also envisioned by Misner
et al. (1973, p. 1215), in their classic book Gravitation:
Of all principles of physics, the laws of conservation of charge, lepton number, baryon
number, mass, and angular momentum are among the most firmly established. Yet with
gravitational collapse the content of these conservation laws also collapses. The estab-
lished is disestablished. No determinant of motion does one see left that could continue
unchanged in value from cycle to cycle of the universe.
4.3 The Cycle as a Cognitive Attractor 71
Let us examine in more detail some uncomfortable ideas behind cycles. Are they
satisfactory explanation schemes? Are they logically fallacious? Do they imply an
eternal return with identical copies of ourselves appearing somewhere or some-
when? For each issue, we present some possible replies and remedies.
The first problem is that answering the causal challenge with a cyclic expla-
nation may not satisfy us fully. Indeed, with cycles there is no endpoint in our
quest for knowledge, so it seems that we have abandoned this quest of an ultimate
explanation. In fact, the word ultimate comes from the Latin ultimare, which
means come to an end. With a cycle, we are never going to come to an end. We
are never going to make our explanation converge onto a firm foundation. It seems
that the explanation is less final than that for a point. For, where and how did it the
cycle start? But of course this very question betrays an attraction for the point
explanation! It implicitly assumes that only a point explanation can satisfy us.
Yet in a truly cyclical way of thinking, this question has no point!
The second commonly perceived fallacy regarding cycles or circles is that they
are always vicious and so must be avoided at all costs. But this is wrong. There are
indeed viciously circular definitions or arguments. But we need not attribute them
automatically to cyclical or self-referential conceptualizations. As we saw, a wide
variety of knowledge domains have made impressive progress by developing and
using cyclical, self-referential, or bootstrapping principles. The purported
viciousness of circles hides instead a fear of infinite regresses. A major point is that
circular explanations and infinite regresses are not necessarily vicious (Gratton
1994). One attributes viciousness to such reasoning, but this is based on the
assumption that there is some obligation to begin a beginningless process or to
end some endless process (Gratton 1994, p. 295). To sum up, instead of trying to
avoid an infinite explanatory regress, we can choose to embrace it, without any
contradiction. Such a regress can take two forms, the cycle or the series.
In the latter case, an infinite series is a very unsatisfactory explanation. The
same problem is typically re-introduced in the solution, and the initial problem will
recur infinitely and will never be solved. Such an infinite series may be even more
unsatisfactory than an infinite cycle because it shifts the problem to a totally
inaccessible realm, whereas a cycle seemed more accessible, with some kind of
repetition. But again, as Gratton argued, there is no objective contradiction with
infinite series, although it certainly contradicts our subjective cognitive inclina-
tions to reach either a point or a cycle. The idea of an infinite series constitutes an
accepted infinite series of causes, instead of one which is quarantined in a causa
sui God or ultimate theory.
The third problem with cycles is that they would ipso facto imply an endless
cycle of repetition, a veritable eternal return. The idea of an eternal return is
ubiquitous in primitive world civilizations, religions, and myths (Eliade 1959). In
some interpretations, you and I would have identical copies (German: Dopp-
elgnger) of ourselves somewhere or somewhen in this universe or another.
72 4 Origins of the Origin
Barrow (2005, p. 28) calls this the infinite replication paradox. Interestingly, Paul
Davies (2002, pp. 4445) reports that in his public talks, people find a cyclic
universe palatable, but not an endless cycle of repetition. Indeed, we have no
experience whatsoever of endless cycles of perfect repetition.
Yet, this idea of endless recurrence has reappeared in modern cosmological
discussions (see e.g. Ellis and Brundrit 1979; Tipler 1980a; Garriga and Vilenkin
2001; Knobe et al. 2006; Vilenkin 2006a). But the infinite replication is not at all a
necessary implication of infinite or cyclical models. As we shall now see, it is
doubtful for logical, thermodynamic, and cosmological reasons.
Logically, the infinite replication paradox is groundless because it stems from
the confusion between infinity and exhaustion of possibilities. If we grant that the
universe is infinitewhatever vague idea hides behind such a claimthe infinite
replication is at most a possibility, but not a necessity at all.
This can be explained by the following analogy (see Rucker 2004, p. 295). Let
us consider the set of even integers. It is infinite, but it does not contain all natural
numbers since it contains no odd numbers. Infinity does not necessarily imply
exhaustion of all possibilities. Another example is given by Heller (2009, p. 103).
Let us consider the infinite set of real numbers. Despite the fact that the set is
infinite, every number occurs just once in this set. And each number has its own
individuality, in the sense that each has a different decimal expression (e.g.
3.14159).
In 1871, Louis Auguste Blanqui, in a brochure entitled Eternity by the Stars:
Astronomical Hypotheses, drew some consequences of Newtonian mechanics and
the infinite size of the universe. He concluded that each man possesses within the
expanse an endless number of doubles who live his life, in absolutely the same
way as he lives it himself (cited in Luminet 2007, p. 131).
The idea of eternal recurrence could also be supported with an important
recurrence theorem proven by Poincar (1890). It is technically formulated, but in
plain English it states that:
(1) given a finite mechanical system of material points,
(2) which are subject to forces depending only on position in space
(3) and where coordinates and velocities do not increase to infinity,
(4) then the system will return to its initial state an infinite number of times.
Ernst Zermelo noticed that Poincars recurrence theorem is in contradiction
with the second law of thermodynamics. Indeed, a cyclic universe and an irre-
versible process toward heat death are incompatible (Heller 2009, p. 26). This
illustrates the difficulty of both meeting the causal challenge and respecting the
second law in the thermodynamic challenge.
Interestingly, Tipler (1980a) has proven the more complicated general rela-
tivistic version of Poincars recurrence theorem. That time, the conclusion is the
opposite, namely that recurrence cannot happen in a closed universe. However,
current observations favor an open universe, so Tiplers theorem does not refute
eternal recurrence.
4.3 The Cycle as a Cognitive Attractor 73
The point and cycle cognitive attractors certainly limit our conception of what an
ultimate explanation may be. Deterministic models always reach an attractor, and
thus get locked in at some point in the future. For example, a pendulum will
naturally tend to a point of equilibrium. More precisely, attractors appear under the
following conditions (Wuensche 1998):
Given invariant network architecture and the absence of noise, a discrete dynamical
network is deterministic, and follows a unique (though in general, unpredictable) trajec-
tory from any initial state. When a state that occurred previously is re-visited, which must
happen in a finite state-space, the dynamics becomes trapped in a perpetual cycle of
repetitions defining the attractor (state cycle) and its period (minimum one, a stable point).
If those insights are valid for our cognitive processes, this implies that all our
deterministic models will lack creativity! A typical example of such failures of
creativity in our models is the prediction by the Club of Rome (1972) of a social
collapse caused by the exhaustion of finite resources (they said oil would run out in
1990). In such ambitious world-modeling, it is easy to miss many parameters,
74 4 Origins of the Origin
events, dynamics, nonlinear effects, and new energy sources, all of which went
beyond the model and made its gloomy predictions inaccurate.
It seems that similar biases occur in discussions about the origin of the universe,
where, as we saw, two attractors for explanations emerge: the point and the cycle.
We should keep in mind that the full picture might well be more complicated.
Indeed, in dynamical systems theory, the fixed point (0-dimensional) and the limit
cycle (1-dimensional) are just the simplest attractors. We have no reason to
exclude n-dimensional attractors or strange attractors (with a fractional number of
dimensions, as in fractal geometry).
To be more specific, even if we define the beginning of the universe as
occurring in a singularity, there is room to interpret it. Smith (1988, p. 45) reminds
us that the singularity is not in a 3-dimensional space, it is in a space either of 0
dimensions (if it is just one point), 1 dimension (if it is a series of points consti-
tuting a line or line segment) or 2 dimensions (if it is a series of points comprising
a surface-like space). But we have no theoretical reason to stop at the surface. We
could imagine a limit torus attractor, and indeed the space-time singularity inside a
rotating black hole leads to a ring singularity (Kerr 1963). We could also envisage
any number of complicated fractal topologies, beyond our usual Euclidian,
Newtonian, or Einsteinian prejudices.
A way to avoid the complications of describing the beginning or the end of the
universe is to suppose that it essentially stays in the same state. Such a model is the
steady state cosmological theory, which was first developed by Sir James Jeans
(1928), then in greater detail by Hermann Bondi, Thomas Gold, Fred Hoyle, and
Jayant Narlikar. It assumes the universe remains unchanged, with no cycle, no
beginning at a point, and no end. We could associate it with a linear (1-dimen-
sional) cognitive attractor. It may have its roots in a subjective conception of time,
or in our vision of the horizon in a natural landscape. It is definitely an elegant way
to avoid the difficult waters of the beginning and the end.
To make the steady state theory consistent, Hoyle introduced an ad hoc cre-
ation tensor and thereby violated the conservation of energy. Since then, the
steady state theory has been largely abandoned and replaced by Big Bang models.
But the full story is richer and more subtle (see e.g. Kragh 1996).
The difference between the line and infinite cycles is that in cycles there is some
repetition, and perhaps singularity points, while this is not the case with the line.
Although it is certainly a healthy scientific attitude not to accept the Big Bang
theory as a creation myth but to regard it as a successful scientific model, which
might be improved or refuted by other models in the future, observations do
converge to the idea that there has been a Big Bang. So the linear cognitive
attractor seems to be currently ruled out.
4.4 Points, Cycles and Beyond 75
It is crucial to take seriously our best theories to answer our questions about
origins. Major physical theories like quantum mechanics or general relativity can
have counterintuitive consequences, which nevertheless we must take into
account. Such theories are more reliable than intuitions coming from our brains,
which are mere products of biological evolution. The brain is well adapted to
recognize cycles in natural environments, or to recognize starting points in human
actions, but not to guess what happened in the Big Bang era.
For example, the point attractor, with the associated idea of an original foun-
dation, is deeply problematic if we want to make it consistent with the first law of
thermodynamics. If energy cannot be created or destroyed, how did the original
point pour so much energy into the universe?
We have reviewed the reasons for our inclination toward certain point-like or
cycle-like explanations. How can we choose pragmatically between the two? We
agree with Bitbols (2004) conclusion that a self-contained cycle is more prom-
ising, as its underlying principle of co-creation or bootstrapping has proved very
helpful in many sciences. Remarkably, it is this very same metalevel analysis
technique that triggered our inquiry in this chapter into our metaorigins, or the
origin of our intellectual preferences regarding the origin of the universe. Although
they are less obvious for our hunter-gatherer brains, n-dimensional attractors
should also be kept in mind.
Chapter 5
Capturing Free Parameters
Abstract We address the free parameters issue in cosmology, namely that there
are free parameters in the standard model of particle physics and in cosmological
models, which in principle can be filled in with any number. We do not know why
they should have the value they do. We analyze the issue within physical, math-
ematical, computational, and biological frameworks. We review important dis-
tinctions such as dimensionless and dimensional physical constants, and the
classification of constants proposed by Lvy-Leblond. Then we critically discuss
Tegmarks proposal of the mathematical universe. The idea that our universe
might be modeled as a computational entity is analyzed, and we discuss the
distinction between physical laws and initial conditions using algorithmic infor-
mation theory. Finally, we introduce a biological approach to the free parameters
issue, which will be later developed in Chap. 8. In general, analogies are useful
and fundamental cognitive tools, but they can also be misused or misinterpreted, so
this chapter starts with a preliminary study of analogical reasoning in science.
Our particle physics and cosmological models have free parameters. In particular,
the standard model of particle physics, despite its great successes, has many
adjustable parameters. This is embarrassing, since we do not know why they have
the values they do. In principle, they could take any value. Some parameters
specify the masses of particles, others the relative strength of forces. Since we do
not have theories to decide their values, they are determined by experiment and
then plugged into our models. Smolin (2006, p. 13) described this situation as a
great problem in theoretical physics:
Explain how the values of the free constants in the standard model of particle physics are
chosen in nature.
We shall call such quantities parameters rather than constants. Indeed, if they
are free, they are no longer constants but parameters that can vary, at least in
theory.
More precisely, there are two families of free parameters (see e.g. Demaret and
Lambert 1994, Chap. 5; Stenger 2011). Following Stenger (2011), we call param-
eters of the standard model physics parameters; and parameters of cosmological
models cosmic parameters. Cosmic parameters include for example the expansion
rate of the universe, the mass density of the universe, the ratio of the number of
protons and electrons, and the cosmological constant. Together, the standard model
of particle physics and the standard cosmological model require 31 free parameters
to be specified (Tegmark et al. 2006). It is a major challenge in modern physics to
build stronger theories that reduce this number. The free parameters issue can now
be defined thus:
Free parameters issue: There are free parameters in the standard model and in
cosmological models, which in principle can be filled in with any number.
The role of physical and cosmological models is to reduce this number of free
parameters, possibly to zero. Claiming that there is a free parameters issue is
equivalent to claiming that at least one parameter will never be determined by pure
theory. Claiming that the free parameters problem is solvable is claiming that a
future physical theory will decide every parameter. All cosmological models have
free parameters, except Tegmarks mathematical universe (2007), which we shall
soon discuss (in Sect. 5.3).
In this chapter, I first review important distinctions such as the dimensionless
and dimensional physical constants, and the classification of constants proposed by
Lvy-Leblond. Generalizing Lvy-Leblonds insights, I argue that as physics
progresses, the number of free parameters decreases. I argue that free parameters
will progressively be reduced to initial conditions of a cosmological model. I then
discuss Max Tegmarks radical proposal of the mathematical universe, which
indeed has zero free parameters. Then I examine our universe modeled as a
computational entity and discuss the distinction between physical laws and initial
conditions using algorithmic information theory. Finally, I mention the view of the
biological universe, suggesting biological analogies as fresh perspectives to tackle
the free parameters issue.
There are other pitfalls associated with analogical reasoning. To avoid them,
Gentner and Jeziorski (1993, p. 450) proposed six principles of analogical reasoning:
1. Structural consistency. Objects are placed in one-to-one correspondence and
parallel connectivity in predicates is maintained.
2. Relational focus. Relational systems are preserved and object descriptions disregarded.
3. Systematicity. Among various relational interpretations, the one with the greatest
depththat is, the greatest degree of common higher-order relational structure
is preferred.
4. No extraneous associations. Only commonalities strengthen an analogy. Further
relations and associations between the base and targetfor example, thematic con-
nectionsdo not contribute to the analogy.
5. No mixed analogies. The relational network to be mapped should be entirely contained
within one base domain. When two bases are used, they should each convey a coherent
system.
6. Analogy is not causation. That two phenomena are analogous does not imply that one
causes the other.
The classification is only intended to be a basis for discussing and analyzing the
historical evolution of different physical constants. For example, the constant c, the
velocity of light, was first discovered as a type A constant. It was a property of
light, as a physical object. With the work of Kirchhoff, Weber, Kohlrausch, and
Maxwell, the constant gained type B status when it was discovered that it also
characterized electromagnetic phenomena. Finally, it gained type C status when
special and general relativity were discovered, synthesizing concepts such as
spatiotemporal intervals, or mass and energy. For a detailed account of the status
change of c see Lvy-Leblond (1979, pp. 252258).
82 5 Capturing Free Parameters
What happens next, when a constant has reached its type C status? The fate of
universal constants (type C), explains Lvy-Leblond (1979, p. 246), is to see
their nature as concept synthesizers be progressively incorporated into the implicit
common background of physical ideas, then to play a role of mere unit conversion
factors and often to be finally forgotten altogether by a suitable redefinition of
physical units. More precisely, this remark leads him to distinguish three sub-
classes of type C constants, according to their historical status:
If all dimensional constants follow this path, then they all become archaic
and thus integrated in the background of physical theories. The fate of dimensional
constants seems then to fade away. Is it possible to take this remark seriously and
try to relegate all dimensional constants to archaic ones? Michael Duff (Duff 2002;
Duff et al. 2002) convincingly argued that the number of dimensional constants
(type C) can be reduced to zero! He regards constants like c, G, or h, which are
often considered fundamental, as merely unit conversion factors. According to his
terminology, only dimensionless constants should be seen as fundamental. Stenger
(2011) also describes dimensional constants as trivial and arbitrary parameters.
A dimensionless physics approach is also proposed in the framework of scale
relativity (Nottale 2003, p. 16). Following the idea of relativity, one can articulate
any physical expression in terms of ratios. Indeed, in the last analysis one physical
quantity is always expressed relative to another. Of course, experimentalists still
need to refer to metric systems, and often to many more dimensional physical
constants than just the common c, G, and h. The point here is that it is possible to
express the results in physical equations without reference to those dimensional
constants (see also Lvy-Leblond 1979, pp. 248251).
What are the consequences of these insights for the free parameters problem? If
the fate of dimensional constants is to disappear, then we obviously reduce the
number of free parameters. Any consideration of what would happen if a type C
dimensional constant were to have a different value has to be considered very
skeptically. Such a scenario has unfortunately been famously popularized by
Gamows (1939) book Mr. Tompkins in Wonderland. Mr. Tompkins is subject to a
world where the arbitrary constants c, G, and h vary, and the world changes
accordingly. Again, as Duff argued, the problem is that dimensional constants are
conventions, and changing them is changing a convention, not physics. It is thus
only meaningful to express the possible changes in terms of dimensionless
constants.
Parameters involved in cosmological models can be explained by new physical
theories. Such is the case with the dimensionless cosmological constant, whose
value has been predicted by scale relativity (Nottale 2010, pp. 123124).
5.2 The Physical Universe 83
Scale relativity is difficult and technical. The best starting point is a popular
book, La relativit dans tous ses tats (Nottale 1998). It recalls the history of
relativity theories from Copernicus and Galileo to Einstein and Poincar. The last
chapters introduce scale relativity as a logical continuation of such relativity
theories, which this time aims to unify quantum physics with relativity theories.
The principle of relativity has been successfully applied to positions, orientations,
and motions, and it is now extended to scales. It is one of the best popular science
book Ive ever read, and if you cant speak French, its worth learning just to read
it! English speakers can learn more by reading Nottales other books (1993, 2011).
Scale relativity extends theories of relativity by including the scale in the
definition of the coordinate system, then accounting for scale transformations in a
relativistic way. How is this possible? And why did Einstein not find this extension
before? As often in the history of physics, part of the answer lies in the mathe-
matical tools.
Einstein struggled for years to develop general relativity, his theory of gravi-
tation, because it involved non-Euclidean geometries. These geometries were
counterintuitive to manipulate and understand, and they had not been used in
physics before. Similarly, scale relativity uses a fundamental mathematical tool to
deal with scales: fractal geometries. Including scale transformations explicitly in
equations leads to an extension of general relativity that includes its previous
results, and leads to the construction of a fractal spacetime theory. Previous
relativity theory equations are limited to differentiable equations; scale relativity
allows an extension to nondifferentiable equations, using fractal geometries. The
constraint of differentiability is released, and this leads to a more general theory
that can deal both with the differentiable and the nondifferentiable cases. Just as
non-Euclidean geometries were new for Einstein, fractals are (relatively!) new to
physicists today, because they were first studied in depth by Mandelbrot in the
1950s, although they were known to mathematicians long before (via Cantor dust,
Julia sets, etc.).
This simple yet fundamental approach generates a profusion of results, which
are both theoretical and practical, with validated predictions. Let us mention a few
of them. New light is thrown on quantum mechanics, since the postulates of
quantum mechanics can be derived from the principles of scale relativity (Nottale
and Clrier 2007). Furthermore, in scale relativity one can derive a macroscopic
Schrdinger equation that generalizes the statistical predictability characteristic of
quantum mechanics to other scales in nature. For example, the relative positions of
(exo)planets can be predicted in a statistical manner. The theory predicts correctly
that they are more likely to be found at particular distances from their stars.
Moreover, thanks to scale relativity, it is possible to bind free physics and
cosmic parameters. Special scale relativity can even predict the value of the strong
nuclear force with great precision, as later experimental measurements confirmed
(Nottale 2010, pp. 2627). On cosmological scales, reasoning at universal scales
allows one to predict the value of a fundamental cosmic parameter, the cosmo-
logical constant (Nottale 1993), with a precise quantitative prediction on which our
finer observations keep on converging (Nottale 2010, Sect. 3.1.2).
84 5 Capturing Free Parameters
Models constructed with the general idea of relativizing scale bring new
insights not only in physics, but also in earth sciences, history, geography, and
biology (Nottale et al. 2000, 2002). Scale relativity is a fundamental approach that
has consequences for nearly all sciences. It suggests that cosmology, fundamental
particle physics, structure formation, biology, geology, economics, and other fields
can be approached with tools derived from the same few principles. Although, as
Nottale (2010) explains, a lot of work still has to be done, the revealed vision is
extraordinarily far reaching and inspiring. For these reasons, I was delighted to
present Laurent Nottale with the Evo Devo Universe 2008 Best Paper Award at the
conference Evolution and Development of the Universe (Vidal 2010b).
Following Duff, Lvy-Leblond, and Stenger, we saw that type C constants are
bound to disappear. Another challenge I would like to propose is the following:
Could type A and type B constants emerge from initial conditions in a cosmo-
logical model? If we were able to explain all these constants in terms of a cos-
mological model, it would certainly be a great achievement. Smolin (1997, p. 316)
also argued that fundamental progress in quantum mechanics must lead to a
cosmological theory. Since all particles ultimately originate from the Big Bang, a
complete understanding of particle physics should include an explanation of their
origin, and thus relate with a cosmological model.
In a certain sense, progress in this direction has already been made, if we
consider the discovery of primordial nucleosynthesis. Properties of atomic ele-
ments could be thought as fundamental constituents of matter, and thus type A
constants, until we discovered they were actually formed during the Big Bang era.
If we extrapolate this trend, a future cosmological model may be able to derive
many (or even all) type A constants from initial conditions.
The same can be said about fundamental coupling constants (type B). Special
scale relativity can indeed predict the value of the strong nuclear force (as) at the Z
mass energy level. As we saw, this was predicted with precision and confirmed by
experiment (Nottale 2010, pp. 2627). Thus, if physics continues its progress, it is
reasonable to conceive that particle physics models will be integrated into cos-
mological models. The consequence for free parameters is that physics parameters
will progressively be reduced to cosmic parameters.
We have outlined Duffs proposal that dimensional constants can be reduced to
zero. We have suggested that fundamental coupling constants could in future be
explained from more general principles, and that many apparent fundamental
constants in the past can nowadays be explained by more general theories.
Accordingly, a great number of free parameters have been and certainly will be
explained by more advanced physical theories.
What about the role constants play in physics and mathematics? Consider the
famous constant p. We can see a disanalogy, because mathematical constants are
defined a priori by the axioms: they are internal to the system and are generally
definable and computable numbers. For example, we have plenty of algorithms to
calculate p to arbitrary precision. This is not the case with physical constants.
5.2 The Physical Universe 85
Many of them remain external to the system, in the sense that they are not
computable from inside the model. At some stage there has been a measurement
process to determine their values. Can we hope that science will allow us to
understand or compute these constants from more fundamental principles? How
far can we go in this direction? Let us now examine the mathematical universe.
Can we find a theory with zero free parameters? Is it just a theoretical physicists
dream? Tegmark (1998, 2004, 2007) makes this dream come true by arguing that
the theory of everything (TOE) is simply the ultimate ensemble theory. The TOE
in physics is the same as the TOE in mathematics. He argues that Newtonian
gravity, general relativity, and quantum field theory can all be seen as mathe-
matical structures. More precisely, he assumes that there is a mathematically
defined multiverse that actually exists, with all possible mathematical structures.
Tegmark further distinguishes four types of parallel universes, with greater and
greater diversity (Tegmark 2004, p. 460). In level I, we are simply speaking about
regions beyond our cosmic horizon. In level II, chaotic inflation (Linde 1990) is
supposed to be correct, and so other post-inflation bubbles are conjectured. In level
III, we assume Everetts (1973) many-worlds interpretation of quantum physics to
be correct, where our universe keeps branching into parallel universes. In level IV,
we assume a structural mathematical realism, where mathematical existence is the
same as physical existence. More precisely, Tegmark (2007, p. 102) makes two
very strong ontological and epistemological hypotheses:
External Reality Hypothesis (ERH): There exists an external physical reality completely
independent of us humans.
Mathematical Universe Hypothesis (MUH): Our external physical reality is a mathe-
matical structure.
There are many good reasons to be very skeptical about those two assumptions,
and about multiverse levels IIIV. But for the sake of the argument, let us follow
Tegmarks reasoning, and see its implications for initial conditions at level IV.
Tegmark (2007, pp. 117118) writes:
There is nothing initial about specifying a mathematical structure. Whereas the tradi-
tional notion of initial conditions entails that our universe started out in some particular
state, mathematical structures do not exist in an external space or time, are not created or
destroyed, and in many cases also lack any internal structure resembling time. Instead, the
MUH leaves no room for initial conditions, eliminating them altogether. This is because
the mathematical structure is by definition a complete description of the physical world. In
contrast, a TOE saying that our universe just started out or was created in some
unspecified state constitutes an incomplete description, thus violating both the MUH and
the ERH.
86 5 Capturing Free Parameters
This would indeed dissipate the problem of initial conditions. But how are we to
solve concrete physics problems if physics is mathematics? Does it helps to know
that there might be parallel universes with all possible mathematical structures?
Here we are indeed speaking of a theory of everything, which unfortunately, has
nothing to say. The literature aiming to solve challenges for ultimate explanations
is often divided into two main classes of solutions: God or Multiverse. Either
it is God who created the universe with all its parameters fit for life and intelli-
gence; or there is a huge number of other universes with different parameters,
making it highly probable that there is one containing life and intelligence. The
fact that it is the one we happen to inhabit is an observational selection effect,
which thus makes the free parameters and their possible fine-tuning less myste-
rious (see e.g. Carr 2007; Bostrom 2002).
From a rational and scientific point of view, an appeal to God suffers from being
a non-naturalistic explanation. Furthermore, God is often assumed to be a god of
the gaps. If we cannot understand a phenomenon, we use God to explain it, and we
thus do not seek another explanation. With this attitude we can, by definition,
explain everything. We can wonder if the hypothesis of a multiverse is any better.
Appeal to the multiverse works everywhere and is not restricted by any limit; so it
can also explain everything. Could it be that Tegmark is replacing the god of the
gaps with the mathematics of the gaps?
As Barrow (2007a, p. vi) noticed, the idea of multiple universes, instead of
bringing theoretical physicists closer to a TOE, has on the contrary undermined
the nave expectations of many, that a Theory of Everything would uniquely and
completely specify all the defining quantities of the Universe that make it a pos-
sible home for life. By equating the TOE in physics with the TOE in mathe-
matics, Tegmark has actually turned totally upside down the logic and hopes
behind a TOE. Instead of having a unique theory, we have a space of possible
theories as hugeand as hard to defineas the space of all mathematical struc-
tures! Such theorizing seems to me an interesting intellectual and metaphysical
exercise, but it has lost touch with physics as an empirical scientific discipline.
Let us now outline a few more precise critiques, as Tegmarks extreme views
constitute a unique opportunity to exercise a critical attitude on many issues. First,
as I state in Appendix I, I hold a pragmatic, evolutionary, constructivist episte-
mology. It took me years to see that constructivists are actually very realist (pun
intended). This is a fundamental disagreement with Tegmark at the level of a
worldview component. In my view, if we study the history of science, and in
particular the history of mathematics, the unreasonable effectiveness of mathe-
matics in the natural sciences (Wigner 1960) that fascinates Tegmark becomes a
truism. Of course mathematics is effective for describing nature, since we con-
struct it for this purpose.
The process of model construction is easier to see once we start studying other
sciences. Psychologists, sociologists, or businessmen are well aware that their
models are always false, incomplete, and based on unrealistic assumptions (see
e.g. the classic book by Sterman 2000). If they can, they do not hesitate to swap
5.3 The Mathematical Universe 87
their model for a better one. Such models, given all their limitations, are good only
if they can make predictions or help to control the system at hand.
The situation with mathematics is a bit more complicated, because there are two
selection mechanisms at play. As in empirical sciences, the first selection is for
external consistency. We insist that our mathematics must describe the world
accurately. For example, arithmetic must be respected. If you put two plus two
apples in a box, you expect to find four apples when you open the box, not three.
However, there is nothing really obvious in this. As Popper (1962, p. 211) pointed
out, if you replace apples with rabbits or drops of water, you might end up having
2 ? 2 = 5 or 2 ? 2 = 1. In such cases, broader biological and physical models
are needed to make reality consistent with arithmetic.
The second selection mechanism in mathematics is for internal consistency. A
theory that implies a contradiction can imply any proposition (thanks to the logical
rule ex falso quod libet). So a self-contradictory theory is trivial and useless. Over
the centuries, mathematicians have made tremendous progress by using the
internal consistency criterion only. This is remarkable, but it obscures the fact that
mathematics is primarily a collection of tools to deal with real-world problems.
The history of mathematics highlights this practical side. Subtraction was first
invented to deal with monetary debts, division to deal with succession problems in
families. This connection with real-world problems holds not only for basic
mathematics. For example, imaginary numbers were first introduced to solve
problems in physics. Additionally, there is still a constant interaction between
mathematics and physics, which we can see more clearly in the field of applied
mathematics.
Significantly, Tegmark (2004, p. 465) understands Poppers (2002) criterion of
falsifiability too liberally when he writes:
Containing unobservable entities does clearly not per se make theory nontestable. For
instance, a theory stating that there are 666 parallel universes, all of which are devoid of
oxygen makes the testable prediction that we should observe no oxygen here, and is
therefore ruled out by observation.
There are many other problems related to Tegmarks proposal, ranging over the
unclear definition of mathematical structures, problems related to infinities, the
uncomputability of mathematical structures, the inherent untestability of multi-
verse proposals, and much more (see also Cirkovic 2002 for criticisms based on
physics). As Ellis (2007b, p. 401) writes, claiming existence of something you
cannot even properly characterize has dubious scientific merit. We can also
object that the first law of thermodynamics (see Sect. 4.1.3) raises further prob-
lems, as realizing an infinite multiverse would require an infinite amount of
energy.
Although we saw that future physics may understand physics parameters in
terms of a cosmological model, it is unlikely that this would also include the initial
state of that model. Indeed, any theory that decided all values for the initial state in
a cosmological model would soon lead us to the idea of a final theory or a
theory of everything. Beside the conceptual difficulties and objections we
encountered in Tegmarks attempt to describe such a TOE, it is ironic that a TOE
is an act of faith and hence like the God explanation (e.g. Davies 2008, p. 170).
Smolin (1997, p. 248) also wrote that the belief in a final theory shares with a
belief in a god the idea that the ultimate cause of things in this world is something
that does not live in the world but has an existence that, somehow, transcends it.
Given our analysis in Chap. 4, maybe we should not be so surprised, since both
God and a TOE are cognitive point attractors.
The idea that our universe is analogous to a computer is quite popular. We can see
it as the modern version of a mechanistic worldview, looking at the universe as a
machine. There are various versions of this analogy: with cellular automata (see
e.g. Zuse 1970; Wolfram 2002), with quantum computing (e.g. Lloyd 2005), etc.
The general idea has been pushed so far that a modern version of idealism has even
been considered, namely that our universe is actually running on a computer and
we are living inside a computer simulation (e.g. Bostrom 2003; Martin 2006).
We saw that free parameters may ultimately be reduced to initial conditions of a
cosmological model. In this section, I first criticize an argument by Tegmark that a
multiverse theory is more economical than a theory of a single universe. Then I
analyze initial conditions from a computational perspective, and discuss the
relation between physical laws and initial conditions. This is conducted within the
framework of algorithmic information theory (AIT: Chaitin 1974, 1987). I con-
clude by pointing out some limitations of this computational analogy.
Tegmark has considered and replied to many critiques. A recurring objection he
has had to address is that multiverse theories are not simple and are ontologically
extravagant, especially if they suppose the existence of an infinity of different
worlds. Tegmark (2004, p. 489) used algorithmic information theory to argue
precisely the opposite, namely that a multiverse is actually extremely simple.
5.4 The Computational Universe 89
Before seeing how he reached this conclusion, and how we can criticize it, let us
summarize some basics of AIT.
AIT studies complexity measures on strings (e.g. of bits or symbols). The
complexity measure or Kolmogorov complexity1 of an object is the size of the
shortest program able to specify that object. Here is a simple example originally
presented in Wikipedia (2008):
Consider the following two strings of length 64, each containing only lower-case letters,
numbers, and spaces:
abababababababababababababababababababababababababababababababab
4c1j5b2p0cv4w1 8rx2y39umgw5q85s7ur qbjfdppa0q7nieieqe9noc4cvafzf
The first string admits a short English language description, namely ab 32 times, which
consists of 11 characters. The second one has no obvious simple description (using the
same character set) other than writing down the string itself, which has 64 characters.
The first string has a low complexity, because the short program write ab 32
times can generate it, whereas the second one has a higher complexity because no
short program can generate it.
Tegmark gives another example. If we choose an arbitrary integer n, its algo-
rithmic information content is of order log2 n, which is the number of bits needed
to write it. But the set of all integers 1, 2, 3, can be generated by quite a trivial
computer program, so the algorithmic complexity of the whole set is smaller than
that of a generic member. Tegmark concludes that an entire ensemble is often
simpler than one of its members. Tegmark extrapolates this argument to physical
theories:
[T]he set of all perfect fluid solutions to the Einstein field equations has a smaller algo-
rithmic complexity than a generic particular solution, since the former is specified simply
by giving a few equations and the latter requires the specification of vast amounts of initial
data on some hypersurface. Loosely speaking, the apparent information content rises when
we restrict our attention to one particular element in an ensemble, thus losing the sym-
metry and simplicity that was inherent in the totality of all elements taken together.
The argument is correct, but is highly biased. Indeed, the Kolmogorov com-
plexity measure focuses on the shortest length of the algorithm, but does not take
into account the computation time.
Fortunately, Bennett (1988a, b) defined another metric called logical depth. It is
defined as the computing time of the shortest program which can generate an object.
In the case of integers, it is clear that the time to compute a single number would be
very short compared to the infinite time needed to compute all natural numbers.
1
Also known as algorithmic information, program-size complexity, Kolmogorov complexity,
descriptive complexity, stochastic complexity, or algorithmic entropy.
90 5 Capturing Free Parameters
Similarly, there is no doubt that the time necessary to compute blindly the multi-
verse makes the enterprise anything but pragmatic, realizable, or economical.
What is the next best option after zero free parameters? It is a theory with just
one free parameter. Can we imagine such a theory? We can indeed imagine the
initial state of a universe contained in a single parameter. But what about physical
laws that take this initial state as input?
We can interpret the difference between laws and initial conditions in the AIT
framework. Laws convey information that can be greatly shortened by algorithmic
compression (like the ab 32 times string above), whereas initial conditions
represent information that cannot be so compressed (like the second string above).
If we import this analogy into physics, a physical law may be likened to a simple
program able to give a compressed description of some aspects of the world,
whereas initial conditions are data that we do not know how to compress.
We can even interpret this distinction between physical laws and initial con-
ditions in a cognitive manner. We express our knowledge in terms of laws if we
can compress information, and in terms of initial conditions if we cannot. In this
view, scientific progress allows us to dissolve initial conditions into new theories,
by using more general and efficient algorithmic compression rules.
In fact, the distinction between laws and boundary conditions is fuzzy in cos-
mology (Ellis 2007a, Sect. 7.1; Heller 2009, p. 93). One can see boundary con-
ditions as imposing constraints, not only on initial conditions (lower boundary of
the domain), but also at the extremes of the domain. Both physical laws and
boundary conditions play the same role of imposing constraints on the system at
hand. Because we cannot re-run the tape of the universe, it is difficult if not
impossible to distinguish the two. In this view, some laws of physics might be
interpreted as regularities of interactions progressively emerging out of a more
chaotic state. The cooling down of the universe would give rise to progressively
more stable dynamical systems, which then can be described by the mathematical
equations that we call physical laws.
A similar situation occurs in computer science. One can distinguish between a
program, which is a set of instructions, and the data on which the program
operates. The program is analogous to physical laws, and the data to initial con-
ditions. This distinction in computer science can be blurred in the case of a self-
modifying program (one that modifies itself). Also, at a lower level, both the
program and the data are processed in the form of bits, and here also the distinction
is blurred.
In mathematics, Gdels limitation theorems state that in any sufficiently rich
logical system, there will remain undecidable propositions in that system. But
using another, stronger system, one can decide such previously undecidable
propositions (even though new undecidable propositions arise in the stronger
system, and so on). For example, the consistency of Peanos arithmetic cannot be
shown to be consistent within arithmetic, but can be shown to be consistent rel-
ative to modern set theory (in the ZermeloFraenkel axiomatization with the
axiom of choice).
5.4 The Computational Universe 91
where we just needed the initial conditions and a set of rules to understand the
dynamic. By contrast, in biology, phenomena of phenotypic plasticity have been
identified, where we must acknowledge that phenotypes are not uniquely deter-
mined by their genotype. This becomes particularly clear when considering
genetically identical twins. They exhibit many identical features, but also a clear
individuation caused by stochastic processes occurring during development. As
Rees (1999, p. 21) has noticed, cosmology deals with the inanimate world, which
is in fact simpler than the realm of biology, where a phenomenon is difficult to
understand because it is complex, not because it has a huge extension.
The story of the idea that our universe is similar to an organism is rich and long,
and is still very inspiring. It can be traced back to ancient Greece (see Barrow and
Tipler 1986 for historical aspects). One general aim of the Evo Devo Universe
research community is to explore how traditional cosmology can be enriched by
introducing a biological paradigm, as suggested by Ellis (2007a, Thesis H4). More
specifically, the field of evolutionary developmental (evo devo) biology (e.g.
Carroll 2005) provides a great source of inspiration, as it acknowledges both the
contingency of evolutionary processes and the statistically predictable aspect of
developmental processes.
A useful biological analogy for studying the origin of the universe is to examine
other origins, such as the origin of life. For example, biologists think it is unlikely
that there was a unique genetic code when life started. Rather, it is more likely that
many genetic codes competed, maybe for millions of years, and the one we know
outcompeted other codes. We have the impression we are dealing with a universal
biological code, but it is probably just a selection effect, since other codes could
have been as efficient. Could a similar mechanism have appeared at the origin of
the universe? Could universal physical laws, initial conditions, and free
parameters have been selected by a yet unknown process?
In Chap. 8, I shall describe two scenarios for analyzing initial conditions and
free cosmic parameters with a biological and evolutionary approach. The first
model was proposed by Smolin (1992) and is called cosmological natural
selection; the second was introduced by many authors, and I call it cosmological
artificial selection.
Even if Tegmarks model proves to be right in the future, our current physical
and cosmological models require that free parameters be inserted by hand. But
hand-insertion doesnt imply fine-tuning. Although this distinction between free
parameters and fine-tuning was unclear in Vidal (2010a), it has few consequences
for the general reasoning of that paper, because as we reduce free parameters we
also reduce fine-tuning arguments associated with these parameters.
Chapter 6
The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
Abstract The aim of this chapter is to propose a scientific approach to finding out
whether or not our universe is fine-tuned. The first difficulty is to define fine-
tuning, which requires three steps: first, to debunk common and uncommon fine-
tuning fallacies, which constantly sneak into the debate (Sect. 6.1); second, to
distinguish fine-tuning from the closely related issues of free parameters, meta-
physical issues, anthropic principles, observational selection effects, teleology,
and theology (Sect. 6.2); and third, to provide a fallacy-free definition of fine-
tuning (Sect. 6.3). We propose that computer simulations are needed to address
two key cosmological issues: first, the robustness of the emergence of complexity,
which boils down to ask: What would remain the same if the tape of the universe
were replayed? The second issue is fine-tuning, which requires us to consider the
question: Are complex universes rare or common in the space of possible uni-
verses? We first discuss definitions of possible universes and of possible cosmic
outcomessuch as atoms, stars, life, or intelligence. This leads us to introduce a
generalized Drake-like equation, the cosmic evolution equation. This is a modular
and conceptual framework to define research agendas in computational cosmol-
ogy. We then outline some studies of alternative complex universes. Such studies
are still in their infancy, and they can be fruitfully developed within a new research
field supported by computer simulations: artificial cosmogenesis. Thanks to those
new conceptual distinctions, I critically outline classical explanations of fine-
tuning: skepticism, necessity, fecundity, God of the gaps, chance of the gaps, WAP
of the gaps, multiverse, and design (Sect. 6.4). In Chap. 7, we shall underscore the
importance of artificial cosmogenesis by extrapolating the future of scientific
simulations, and in Chap. 8 we shall examine two additional evolutionary
approaches to fine-tuning.
We do not have any good way of estimating how improbable it is that the constants of
nature should take values that are favorable for intelligent life.
Weinberg (1993a, p. 221)
Human fascination for the harmony in nature can be traced back to the dawn of
civilization. Natural harmony has been studied mostly in natural theology, where
the objective is to look for design in nature to infer the existence of a creator. For
example, we can marvel at the proboscis of a butterfly, perfectly adapted or fine-
tuned to eat pollen in flowers. A former Earl of Bridgewater was a naturalist who
truly loved the natural world (as his organization of dinner parties for dogs can
attest) and commissioned eight famous Bridgewater Treatises (first published
between 1833 and 1840). These treatises were intended to explore the goodness of
Gods creation in the natural world. One of them, by Sir Charles Bell, is dedicated
to the hand, its mechanism and vital endowments as evincing design.
It is somehow surprising to see efforts to prove Gods existence from the order
in nature in this period, since Kants Critique of Pure Reason (1781) had famously
refuted such proofs. He called such kinds of proof physical-theological, because
they start from the physical order of the world to infer the existence of a creator.
But it is worth mentioning that Kant (1781, A627/B655) had great respect for this
proof, and made a subtle remark concerning its power:
This proof can at most, therefore, demonstrate the existence of an architect of the world,
whose efforts are limited by the capabilities of the material with which he works, but not
of a creator of the world, to whom all things are subject.
This distinction between architect and creator is important, and we shall return
to it in Chap. 8. Today, thanks to modern evolutionary biology, we know such
design arguments are wrong. When something seems fine-tuned, it surprises the
curious scientist, and calls out for an explanation. The moral of the story is that
when such fine-tuning is discovered, the scientific response is to invent mecha-
nisms and to build theories explaining how it emerged.
The scientific elucidation of whether there is a cosmic design for life is more
recent. It is generally traced back to L. J. Hendersons The Fitness of the Envi-
ronment (1913), in which he pointed to the special chemical properties of water
required for biology to work, and emphasized the importance of studying not only
the fitness of organisms, as in Darwinian evolution, but also the fitness of the
environment. Indeed, both do co-evolve, and, as Francis Heylighen (private
communication and 2007) has argued, the mechanism of stigmergy can be seen as
the logical counterpart of natural selection (see Table 6.1).
Let us start with a general definition of fine-tuning in cosmology proposed by
Ellis (2007b, p. 388):
[I]f any of a number of parameters which characterize the observed universe including
both fundamental constants and initial conditions were slightly different, no complexity
of any sort would come into existence and hence no life would appear and no Darwinian
evolution would take place.
Table 6.1 Natural selection and stigmergy as two fundamental evolutionary processes
Natural selection Stigmergy
Variation Organism Environment
Selection Environment Organism
In natural selection, the variation occurs at the level of the organism (e.g. via genetic mutations),
and its fitness is measured by selection from the environment. By contrast, in stigmergy the
environment varies, in the sense that each organism (e.g. each ant or termite) encounters different
stimuli triggering performance of different actions. In short, the organism selects the action to
perform, and the environment provides variation
and higher radio frequencies (e.g. for FM VHF, the signals range from 30 to
300 MHz). Suppose that the quality of your reception is poor despite all your
efforts to fine-tune the position of the knob. What can you do? There are other
parameters that you can try to vary in order to obtain the best possible reception.
For example, you can adjust the antenna to improve its sensitivity. Or maybe your
radio tuner is getting interference from other electronic devices, so you try moving
your radio tuner to another room. Or you might buy and install a roof antenna,
which should offer you even better reception. Such solutions for improving radio
reception would not be obvious if you limited your attention to varying the radio
tuner parameter. This illustrates the difficulty of capturing all relevant parameters
involved in a phenomenon dependent on fine-tuning.
In engineering, one can fine-tune a system by trial and error or by using
optimization methods. When one needs to adjust 1, 2, 3, , n parameters, the state
space quickly becomes enormously difficult to explore. Analytic solutions of the
mathematical equations become impractical, so this is where one turns to computer
simulations (Sterman 2000, pp. 3739).
There are many natural processes leading to fine-tuned systems. In biology,
organisms seek adaptation to their environment, for example as they look for a
place that is neither too hot nor too cold, or with enough food nearby. After some
time, they exhibit the phenomenon of niche construction. The logic is reversed
here, since it is the organism that changes the environment in order to survive. For
example, Inuits build igloos to keeprelativelywarm.
Is the universe fine-tuned? The idea of fine-tuning is highly controversial. The
large literature shows a wide diversity of mutually contradictory positions on fine-
tuning. The issue stems from physics, but is often motivated by philosophical or
theological agendas. We can find skeptics who insist that fine-tuning is impossible
to define rigorously, physicists who maintain either that it is a central issue in
theoretical physics or that there is no need for fine-tuning, and natural theologians
who use fine-tuning arguments to infer the existence of God.
The difficulties are numerous because an exact formulation of the argument
requires understanding of physics, cosmology, probability theory, dynamical
systems theory, parameter sensitivity, and philosophy.
Furthermore, the fine-tuning issue is often mixed with related issues, such as
observation selection effects, teleology, anthropic principles and reasoning, and
98 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
Before getting our hands dirty in the fine-tuning machinery, let us make some
general comments. Propositions (1) and (2) can be verified for many physics and
cosmic parameters. By cosmic outcome I mean a milestone in cosmic evolution,
such as the emergence of stable atoms, stars, galaxies, planets, life, or
6.1 Fine-Tuning Fallacies 99
Further inferences from (4) to (5.1 or 5.2) and from (5.1) to (6.1) or from (5.2) to
(6.2) are speculations. We shall look at explanatory mechanisms other than (5.1) and
(5.2) (in Sect. 6.4 and Chap. 8). Regarding propositions (5.1) or (5.2), we can ask:
What makes creation by some intelligence or the existence of a multiverse the best
explanation? According to which criteria? In propositions (6.1) or (6.2), the issue
becomes philosophical: What are our criteria for stating that something exists? Is
it because something is the best known explanation that it necessarily exists?
parameter; fourth, because we must know how to deal with infinities; and fifth,
because we must choose the resolution at which the parameter is allowed to vary
and thereby address the coarse-tuning argument. Let us further examine these
issues.
The first problem is that, as far as we know, our universe is unique. Obviously,
speaking about the probability of a single object is problematic. How can we define
the probability of the universe? As Ellis (2007a, p. 1218) wrote:
Thesis A4: The concept of probability is problematic in the context of existence of
only one object. Problems arise in applying the idea of probability to cosmology as a
whole it is not clear that this makes much sense in the context of the existence of a single
object which cannot be compared with any other existing object.
Let us now imagine that you have bought an ideal analog radio tuner that is so
sensitive you can choose from an infinite number of radio frequencies. There are
two possibilities, either your radio tuner is rationally sensitive, or really sen-
sitive. In the former case, the set is dense like an interval in the set of rational
numbers; in the latter case, the set is continuous like an interval in the set of real
numbers. Both sets are infinite, but they require different mathematical treatments,
the one with discrete probability tools, the other with continuous ones. In prob-
ability theory, we distinguish between discrete variables, which have either a finite
or a countably infinite number of possible values, and continuous variables, which
have an uncountably infinite number of possible values.
Here we face an ontological problem. Should we use discrete or continuous
variables? Even with the analog radio tuner, we could argue that the number of
possible frequencies is either huge but finite, countably infinite, or uncountably
infinite. Each option involves a different ontological position regarding the nature
of the real world. A pragmatic approach is simply not to worry too much about
this, and proceed with the mathematical tools that best help us to solve our
problem.
Let us assume a continuous variable. The intuitive idea of fine-tuning, argue
Colyvan et al. (2005), is the following. Some physical constant k must take a value
in a very narrow range in order for a cosmic outcome to evolve. They write:
Let us suppose that the constant in question has to lie between the values m - d and m ? e
(where m is the actual value of k and d and e are small, positive real numbers). The intuitive
idea is that the interval [m - d, m ? e] is very small compared to all the logically possible
values k might have taken (i.e., the whole real line), and since there is no explanation of
why k = m and not any other value, all possible values of k should be considered equally
likely. Thus, the probability of k taking a value in [m - d, m ? e] is also very small. Thats
the intuitive idea, but the problem is that its not at all clear how this nave intuition can be
made rigorous.
In summary, the probability that the value of the parameter falls in any finite
interval is 0. Colyvan et al. show that this constitutes a serious obstacle to
any rigorous argument that a parameters particular value is improbable.
102 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
This observation also shows the importance of considering the resolution at which
we consider the parameters variation. This issue is often referred to as the coarse
tuning argument, because it is unclear what constitutes a fine or coarse
interval. Consequently, the fine-tuning argument works as wellor as badlyas
the coarse-tuning argument (see McGrew et al. 2001; see also Manson 2000).
In conclusion, the statement outcome O in cosmic evolution is improbable
does not follow from existing fine-tuning arguments. Showing precisely and rig-
orously the improbability of a particular outcome is a difficult task.
It is both the most common and the most serious fallacy. If the history of
physics has taught us anything, it is that phenomena once thought to be completely
independent turn out to have common underlying causes and principles. For
example, our common sense fails to see a connection between the fall of an apple
and the tides; between magnetism and electricity; and even less between space,
time, and the speed of light. But all these phenomena have been unified thanks to
physical theories.
Additionally, varying several parameters too casually can lead to what is known
as the one-factor-at-a-time paradox in sensitivity analysis. The problem with the
one-factor-at-a-time (OAT) method is that it is non-explorative. Let us see why. At
first sight, the method of OAT seems logical and rigorous, since it varies one factor
at a time while keeping the others constant. It seems consistent because the output
from a change can be attributed unambiguously to the change of one factor. It also
avoids attributing relevance to non-influential factors. However, by construction,
this method is non-explorative, with exploration decreasing rapidly with the
number of factors. For a simple example, consider Fig. 6.1, which shows clearly
that OAT explores only five points forming a cross, out of nine points in total.
Let us now generalize this example. In n dimensions, the n-cross will neces-
sarily be inscribed in the n-sphere. The problem is that this n-sphere represents a
small percentage of the total parameter space defined by the n-cube. For example,
in two dimensions, the ratio of the partially explored to the total area is r & 0.78.
In Fig. 6.1, this means the corners areas outside the circle are not explored. The
problem quickly gets worse as we increase the number of dimensions. In three
dimensions r & 0.52, and in 12 dimensions r & 0.000326 (for the calculations,
criticism, and alternatives to OAT, see Saltelli and Annoni 2010).
Fine-tuning arguments typically vary one parameter at a time. Thus they use the
OAT method to explore the space of alternative universes by varying each one of
the 31 fundamental physics and cosmic parameters, and hence actually explore
104 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
only r & 4.56 9 10-15 of the parameter space. We conclude that such fine-tuning
arguments have restricted their exploration to 0.00000000000000456 % of the
relevant parameter space!1
Scientific progress provides the most elegant way to refute fine-tuning arguments,
and ever more authors are debunking the logical, probabilistic, and physical fal-
lacies surrounding fine-tuning. We saw that physicists build new theories that bind
free parameters (see Vidal 2010a; Chap. 5). This is the historical and logical
progress of science that leads to refutations of fine-tuning arguments.
One might object that some modern physics theories have more free parame-
ters, not fewer. For example, the simplest supersymmetric extension of the stan-
dard model has 125 free parameters (Smolin 2007, p. 330). How is this to be
interpreted? Instead of accepting a sudden reversal of the historical trend such that
new physical theories now have more parameters, we can surmise that more work
needs to be done at the level of the foundations of physics. A theory with more free
1
I used the formulas in (Saltelli and Annoni 2010, p. 1510) for this calculation. It assumes that
we can put upper and lower boundaries on each of the parameters, which is not at all warranted
for physics and cosmic parameters. The estimate is also very generous, since the actual
exploration of OAT will only be a tiny n-cross within the volume of the n-sphere, which itself
represents only 4.56 9 10-15 of the full parameter space defined by the n-cube.
6.1 Fine-Tuning Fallacies 105
parameters is not a good one. It is well known that the more free parameters a
theory has, the easier it is to make it fit any data.
Let us consider the cosmological constant as an example of how fine-tuning can
be disproved. For the sake of the argument, let us ignore Nottales prediction of its
value. Then, Page (2011) showed that the cosmological constant is not fine-tuned
for life, since the fraction of baryons that become living organisms would be
higher if the cosmological constant were lower. This example shows that these
kinds of arguments can also prove the opposite: that our universe could have been
better fine-tuned for life! One could reply that fine-tuning still remained, but such
an argument would show that the parameter (here the cosmological constant) is not
optimized for a particular outcome (here the production of baryons). Optimization
is distinct from parameter sensitivity.
Once the basic fallacies are debunked, by varying more than one parameter
Stenger is able to show that our universe is not particularly fine-tuned. He actually
avoids the OAT paradox by varying two parameters at a time, exploring a bit more
of the parameter space. This is still largely insufficient if our standard is a sys-
tematic exploration of the parameter space, but it is enough to show that our
universe is not uniquely fine-tuned.
To take another example, Stenger reminds us that the weak nuclear reaction
rates which give rise to the neutron-proton mass difference depend on a freeze-out
temperature TF. By varying both the neutron-proton mass difference and TF, a
wide zone permitting life is possible in the parameter space (Stenger 2011, p. 182).
By using computer simulations, it is possible to explore even more of the
parameter space. Stenger (1995, 2000) has performed a remarkable simulation of
possible universes, varying four parameters. His conclusion is that our universe is
not fine-tuned and other universes are possible. We shall discuss this attempt and
see how to test fine-tuning rigorously with virtual universes soon (in Sect. 6.3).
In Vidal (2010a, 2012a) I wrote about fine-tuning, while I was in fact tackling the
free parameters issue. I confused the two and I apologize to my readers. However,
this does not harm the argumentation of those papers, since reducing the number of
106 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
The first phenomenon is the parameter sensitivity of the universe. This is the (apparent)
property of the universe that small changes in the parameters of physics produce cata-
strophic changes in the evolved universe. In particular the complexity of the evolved
universe, and hence its ability to support life, would be undermined by small changes in
the universal constants (in the pragmatic sense of small changes discussed above).
6.2 Fine-Tuning and Other Issues 107
Thus, parameter sensitivity is the claim that the target in parameter space which is
compatible with a complex universe is small in some sense. The smallness of this target, if
true, is a feature which requires explanation.
The second, and quite distinct, phenomenon is that nature has somehow managed to hit this
small target which we will refer to as fine tuning. The actual constants in our universe
have to be fine tuned to coincide with the requirements for a complex outcome. In other
words, given that only special values for the parameters will do (i.e., given parameter
sensitivity), nature had to contrive to adopt these particular values (i.e., nature is fine tuned).
However, the first sentence of this citation confuses the two phenomena, since
fine-tuning is seen as including both parameter sensitivity and fine-tuning. I regard
this distinction as exclusive, so I see Bradfords argument as showing the
inevitability of parameter sensitivity in a complex universe and not the inevi-
tability of fine-tuning in a complex universe (the latter being the title of the
paper). As Bradford himself acknowledges, the paper is concerned only with the
first phenomenon: parameter sensitivity and how it arises.
To which I add:
A serious discussion of the anthropic principle does not mention the anthropic principle.
Although Bostrom does not review the over thirty anthropic principles, there
are in practice two main uses of the anthropic principle today. Either the author
wants to speak about observational selection effects or about teleology. There are
good reasons to be careful and skeptical with both. The one refers to a basic scientific
methodology, while the other may let us drift into unscientific considerations. To
summarize, when you see a mention of the anthropic principle, you should ask
yourself, does the author means a selection effect, teleology, or something else? Let
us now discuss the two main meanings, selection effects and teleology, and thus
follow my proposal to give up using the ambiguous term anthropic principle.
Another example is the Malmquist bias in astrophysics (see e.g. Ellis 2007a,
p. 1199). Let X be a population of luminous objects, with different luminosities. At
a long distance from X, we will only see the more luminous objects. Thus the
average luminosity will appear to increase with distance.
We can new reformulate Carters famous weak and strong anthropic
principles as two OSEs:
where r0 = h/m0c is the Compton length associated with the mass scale m0. What
this relation says is simply that the scale of elementary particles r0 =lP is one third of
the universal scale L=lP in the scale space. The relation r0 =lP 3 mP =m0 3 can
be verified from the definition of r0 = h/m0c. Now, how can we deduce this con-
clusion? It is possible by reasoning about scales. The idea is to consider the vacuum
as fractal, and the energy density not as a number, but as an explicit function of the
scale. Without going into further details, this is shown in Fig. 6.2, where the r-6
line (the scale variation of the gravitational self-energy density of quantum vacuum
fluctuations) crosses the scale of elementary particles (q) at one third of scales in the
universe. I encourage the curious reader to study Nottales papers and books for
further details.
In conclusion, we can emphasize again that OSEs offer no causal explanation.
This was illustrated with simple examples, as well as with the EddingtonDirac
large number hypothesis. Diracs intuition that Dickes explanation in terms of
the OSE was insufficient is confirmed with a more recent partial deduction of the
EddingtonDirac large number relation. An OSE should not obscure the fact that
regular scientific work needs to be done.
6.2 Fine-Tuning and Other Issues 111
Fig. 6.2 Scale variation of the vacuum energy density [in lP =r4 ] and of the gravitational self-
energy density of quantum vacuum fluctuations [in lP =r6 ] in the framework of Galilean scale
relativity (from Nottale 2011, p. 545). Here q denotes the classical electron radius and quark
confinement transition. Nottale (1993) suggests that the r-6 gravitational self-energy contribution
crosses the geometric cosmological contribution K at a scale of 70 MeV. This scale lies at a third
of the full interval from the Planck scale lP to the cosmic scale L (in logarithmic scale space),
apparently validating the EddingtonDirac large number relation
The same limitation holds with the idea that an OSE (e.g. the WAP) plus the
hypothesis of the existence of a multiverse could explain the fine-tuning issue.
The argument is that there exists a huge multiverse with various values of funda-
mental cosmic and physics parameters. It is thus not surprising that the only uni-
verse we can observe is fine tuned. If it were not fine tuned, observers like us would
never have emerged, and would not be here to observe anything. The bottom line is
that our universe might seem fine tuned, but the multiverse need not be. We shall
criticize this dubious explanation later as a WAP of the gaps (see Sect. 6.4.6).
Napoleon: M. Laplace, they tell me you have written this large book on the system of the
universe, and have never even mentioned its Creator.
Can we provide a general definition of fine-tuning that avoids all the logical,
probabilistic, and physical fallacies we spotted, as well as all the confusions with
the seven other issues we outlined? This is my aim now.
Different discussions of fine-tuning focus on very different cosmic outcomes.
We see fine-tuning discussions regarding the dimensionality of space (Rees 1999),
the production of carbon atoms in stars (Hoyle et al. 1953), the existence of long-
lived stars (Adams 2008); the number of black holes (Smolin 1992); biochemistry
(Barrow et al. 2008); and indeed complexity of any sort (Ellis 2007b).
114 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
A key question to clarify and explicate the issue is thus: Fine-tuning for what?
Which cosmic outcome are we interested in? To answer these questions, I now
introduce the cosmic evolution equation (CEE). It is a modular conceptual
framework for discussing possible universes, possible cosmic outcomes, and just
how far our universe is robust or fine-tuned.
To define the CEE, I build on Drakes (1965) equation in SETI and on the
thoughtful discussion of possible universes by Ellis et al. (2004). The Drake
equation estimates the number of communicative intelligent civilizations in our
galaxy. By extension, one application of the generalized CEE is to estimate the
likelihood of our particular universe in the space of possible universes. In other
words, if Drakes equation allows one to estimate the probability of life existing
somewhere in the galaxy, one application of the CEE is to estimate the more
general probability of life existing anywhere in the space of possible universes.
The famous dialogue between Laplace and Napoleon (above) shows the
strongly scientific stance of Laplace, who had no need of the hypothesis of God for
his scientific work. Instead of God, do we need to assume an actual multiverse?
No, we dont. To study the fine-tuning issue, we need only possible or virtual
universes, not actually realized ones. This interpretation still allows us to use the
vast multiverse literature to define and explore possible universes, without making
strong ontological claims regarding their actual existence.
What are possible universes? How can we describe the space of possible uni-
verses? These questions open up enormous logical, metaphysical, philosophical,
and scientific problems. Although possible universes or possible worlds have been
discussed mainly in the history of philosophy (see e.g. Leibniz 1710; Lewis 1986;
see also Dick 1982 for a wider historical perspective), our aim here is to formulate
the issue of possible universes in such a way that it can make its exit from
metaphysics and enter the realm of operational science.
We now follow the (Ellis et al. 2004) definition of the class of all possible
universes. Let M be a structural and dynamical space of all possible universes m.
Each universe m is described by a set of states s in a state space S. Each universe
m is characterized by a set P of distinguishing parameters p, which are coordinates
on S. Such parameters will be logical, physical, or dynamical. How will they
dynamically evolve? The three authors elaborate:
Each universe m will evolve from its initial state to some final state according to the
dynamics operative, with some or all of its parameters varying as it does so. The course of
this evolution of states will be represented by a path in the state space S, depending on the
parametrisation of S. Thus, each such path (in degenerate cases a point) is a representation
of one of the universes m in M. The coordinates in S will be directly related to the
parameters specifying members of M.
6.3 The Cosmic Evolution Equation 115
As the three authors argue, we cannot avoid the meta-law issue, because we
have no other basis for setting up a consistent description of M. We need to find a
logic that describes M. There are other difficult issues related to identifying which
different representations represent the same universe modelsthe equivalence
problemand the problem of dealing with an infinite space of possible universes.
I refer the reader to the original paper for deeper discussions of these issues.
More directly related to the fine-tuning issue is the remark of Jean-Philippe
Uzan that the larger the possibility space considered, the more fine-tuned the
actual universe appears to be (reported in Ellis et al. 2004, p. 923). Indeed, we
can easily increase the unlikelihood of our universe simply by allowing the
parameter space to grow. For example, why dont we explore whether universes
with 42 dimensions generate life? Do we really want to capture the radical idea of
all that can happen, happens? There is huge variation in the space of possi-
bilities that we can delimit. Ellis (2007a, p. 1261) distinguishes four levels of
variation, weak, moderate, strong, and extreme:
Weak variation: e.g. only the values of the constants of physics are allowed to vary?
This is an interesting exercise but is certainly not an implementation of the idea all that
can happen, happens. It is an extremely constrained set of variations.
Moderate variation: different symmetry groups, or numbers of dimensions, etc. We
might for example consider the possibility landscapes of string theory (Freivogel et al.
2006) as realistic indications of what may rule multiverses (Freivogel et al. 2006;
Susskind 2005, 2007). But that is very far indeed from all that is possible, for that
should certainly include spacetimes not ruled by string theory.
Strong variation: different numbers and kinds of forces, universes without quantum
theory or in which relativity is untrue (e.g. there is an aether), some in which string
theory is a good theory for quantum gravity and others where it is not, some with quite
different bases for the laws of physics (e.g. no variational principles).
Extreme variation: universes where physics is not well described by mathematics; with
different logic; universes ruled by local deities; allowing magic as in the Harry Potter
series of books; with no laws of physics at all? Without even mathematics or logic?
We do need to make the difficult choice between theoretical physics and magic,
or indeed anything in between.
As Ellis et al. (2004) say, the values of the parameters may not be known
initially. They may emerge out of transitions from one regime to another. For
example, sociologists do not explore alternative sociological structures by varying
the mass of elementary particles. They start from different, less fundamental
parameters, such as the influence of population density, the climate, or the media.
The challenge of understanding complexity transitions in cosmic evolution is both
of the utmost importance and extremely difficult. For example, how did atoms
emerge out of the Big Bang era? How did planets form out of stars and stardust?
How did life originate out of molecules? How did consciousness emerge from
biological organisms? And so on.
The ideal of reducing such parameters is a major goal of science. The objective
is to build a consistent theory and narrative of cosmic evolution, which explains a
maximum of cosmic outcomes with a minimum of parameters. Scientific progress
is achieved when new theories capture previously free and unexplained parameters.
We saw the reduction of free parameters in physics and cosmology in Chap. 5, but
we can now extend this attitude to attempt a reduction of other higher parameters
(such as life) to fundamental physics and cosmic parameters. However, since we are
still very far from succeeding, in our description of possible universes we must
include those higher parameters explicitly. Typically, when researchers tackle the
issue of the origin of life, they dont start from Big Bang nucleosynthesis, but they
assume the existence of molecules.
The three authors categorize the parameters from the most basic ones to the
most complex ones. They distinguish seven different categories of parameters pj,
with j = 1, 2 describing basic physics; j = 3, 4, 5 describing cosmology; and
j = 6, 7 related to the emergence of life and higher complexity.
Each category pj comprises different parameters i. For example, p1 (i) are the
basic parameters of physics: the fine-structure constant; masses, charges, and spins
of particles; and other dimensionless parameters (for a detailed description of the
parameters, see the original paper).
However, in each parameter category I would like to add explicitly some
random, chance, or noise parameters. For example, these could include quantum
effects in the early universe for j = 1, , 5; or nonlinear chaotic dynamics, which
might trigger catastrophic events, such as meteorites impacting planets for j = 7.
This would certainly complicate the dynamics, but would also make it much more
realistic. A dynamical argument can even be advanced that such random events
might be essential to the open-ended growth of complexity. This can be illustrated
in engineering with the heuristic of simulated annealing. One starts by adding
significant noise into the system and then gradually reduces it. The purpose of the
noise is to shake the system to let it reach a maximally stable configuration and
avoid getting stuck in a local optimum.
Now, how do we decide which cosmic outcomes to keep, and which ones to
leave out? At first, we can aim at including a maximum of parameters. Then we
would progressively reduce the number of parameters, as we get better and better
insights on how they emerge from more fundamental principles and theories; i.e.
from previous parameters. Aunger (2007a, pp. 11421144) compiled from many
6.3 The Cosmic Evolution Equation 117
authors a list of more than 100 different cosmic outcomes. This is the most
comprehensive review I am aware of, ranging from the Big Bang to the formation
of atoms, stars, solar systems, life, DNA, multicellularity, sexual reproduction,
fishes, mammals, agriculture, modern science, and space exploration. Table 6.2
summarizes this comprehensive review of cosmic outcomes, which Aunger calls
big history events. This list is certainly an excellent starting point for the
endeavor of discussing the selection of cosmic outcomes.
However, we can already anticipate a fallacy lurking when considering a large
list of cosmic outcomes. Recalling Uzans remark for the space of possible uni-
verses, we can assert that the more cosmic outcomes we have, the more unlikely
they will seem. The extreme case is to consider a single object as a cosmic
outcome. For example, participants in intelligent design discussions consider a
complex object such as a living organism or an airplane and try to assess the
likelihood that it arose by chance. Of course this will be very unlikely! Even then,
as Dawkins (2006) argues, natural selection would still constitute a much better
candidate explanation than design. A scientist will look for possible mechanisms
and theories that can explain the emergence of complexity. The a posteriori
probability of a single object isolated from its evolutionary or human context is of
weak scientific interest.
To avoid such an error, we need to advance theoretical reasons for selecting
certain cosmic outcomes rather than others. This is rarely attempted. Most authors
propose an arbitrary list without strong theoretical justification. Ellis et al. did not
justify their choice of distinguishing parameters, although it is clear that they
included a lot of the cosmological parameters necessary for their subsequent study
of universes with different geometries.
A promising approach to the selection of cosmic outcomes is to focus on
thermodynamics. All systems need to process energy, which is therefore a uni-
versal concept, applicable from the beginning of the universe to modern energy-
hungry technological society. Aunger (2007a, b) built on a thermodynamic theory
to select cosmic outcomes, namely non-equilibrium steady-state transitions. Each
transition involves first an energy innovation, then a structural adjustment, and
finally a new control mechanism. He thus constructed a consistent selection of
cosmic outcomes and evolutionary transitions (see Table 6.3).
Which cosmic outcomes are contingent and evolutionary? Which ones are
necessary and developmental? Are there attractors in the dynamic of cosmic
evolutionary development? To answer these questions, we need to explore the
robustness of the emergence of complexity. Stated otherwise, if we were to re-run
the tape of the universe, would galaxies, stars, biology, and technology arise again
and again? The straightforward way to answer these questions, in parallel to a
theoretical rationale like Aungers, is indeed to re-run the tape of the universe. Let
us now examine how we can conceive and implement this idea.
Table 6.2 List of cosmic outcomes (Aunger 2007a) [Original title: Candidate events in big history]
118
Event Author
Sagan Barrow/ Chaisson Christian Modis Coren Spier Maynard Barbieri Klein Lipsey Sanderson Johnson/ Freeman
Silk Smith/ et al. Earle
Szathmary
Big banga X X X X X X X
Planck era X X
Inflation X X
Gravitya X X
Nuclear forcesa X X X
Electromagnetic X X X
forcesa
Hadrons X
Leptons X X
Nuclear particles X X X
Recombination X
Atomsb X X X
Starsa X X X X X
Black holes/quasarsb X X X
Solar windc X X
Galaxiesb X X X X X
Second-generation X
(population II)
stars
Population I stars X
Solar system/planetsb X X X X X
Cratering of planets X
Formation of earth X X X
Oldest rocks form X X
6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
(continued)
Table 6.2 (continued)
Event Author
Sagan Barrow/ Chaisson Christian Modis Coren Spier Maynard Barbieri Klein Lipsey Sanderson Johnson/ Freeman
Silk Smith/ et al. Earle
Szathmary
First replicatorsc X X X X
First lifeb X X X X X X X X X
Chromosomes X
RNA/DNA/protein X X X
divisionc
Photosynthesisa X X
6.3 The Cosmic Evolution Equation
Eukaryotes (complex X X X X
nucleus)b
Recombination of X
DNA
Sexual reproductionc X X X X
Atmosphere X X X X X
oxygenateda
Multi-cellular lifeb X X X X X X X X
Earliest fossils X X X
Intensive volcanism X
Worms X
Cambrian explosion X X X X X
(Vertebrates)
Genetic bauplanec X
Trilobites X
Brainsc X X X X
Fish X X X
Vascular plants X
(continued)
119
Table 6.2 (continued)
120
Event Author
Sagan Barrow/ Chaisson Christian Modis Coren Spier Maynard Barbieri Klein Lipsey Sanderson Johnson/ Freeman
Silk Smith/ et al. Earle
Szathmary
Insects (Devonian) X X
Amphibians X
Reptiles X X
Dinosaurs (Permian) X X X
Paleozoic X X
Mammals X X X
Socialityb X X
Birds X X
Cretaceous period X X X
Primates X X X X
Orangutan X
Hominoids X X X X
Proconsul X X
Hominids X X X X X
Stone toolsa X X X X X
Consciousness X
Firea X X X X X
Most recent glacial X X
period
Settlement of X X
Australia
Family-level X X X X X X
foraginga
Broad-spectrum food X X
collectiona
6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
(continued)
Table 6.2 (continued)
Event Author
Sagan Barrow/ Chaisson Christian Modis Coren Spier Maynard Barbieri Klein Lipsey Sanderson Johnson/ Freeman
Silk Smith/ et al. Earle
Szathmary
Neolithic X X X
Local group/bandsb X X
Cultural learningc X X X
Modern humans X X X X
Tool kitsa X X X X X
Clan (tribe)/villageb X X
6.3 The Cosmic Evolution Equation
Languagec X X X X X X
Wheel X
Pottery X
Sedentism X X
Horticulturea X X
Corporate group/ big- X X X
manb
Neanderthal burial X X
Art (cave painting)c X X X X X X
Agriculturea X X X X X
Domestication of X
animalsa
Pastoral society X X
Plow X
Chiefdomsb X X X
First citiesb X X
First dynasties X X X X
(Archaic states)b
121
(continued)
Table 6.2 (continued)
122
Event Author
Sagan Barrow/ Chaisson Christian Modis Coren Spier Maynard Barbieri Klein Lipsey Sanderson Johnson/ Freeman
Silk Smith/ et al. Earle
Szathmary
Writing/alphabetc X X X X X
Hammurabic X X
legal codes,
taxationc
Iron metallurgya/ X X
compassc
Bronze metallurgy X X
Kingdoms (Asokan X
India, Chin
Dynasty, Athens)b
Christianity X X
Gunpowder X
Mayan and Byzantine X
civilizations
Pulley X
World exploration/ X X
migrations
Three-masted ship X
Water millsa X X
Feudalismb X X
Market economyc X X X X X
Renaissance X X
Printingc X X
Industrial revolution X X X X X
(mechanization)a
6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
(continued)
Table 6.2 (continued)
Event Author
Sagan Barrow/ Chaisson Christian Modis Coren Spier Maynard Barbieri Klein Lipsey Sanderson Johnson/ Freeman
Silk Smith/ et al. Earle
Szathmary
Steamb X X X
Modern science/ X X X X X
technologyc
Democratic state X X
Factory systemsc X X
Railwaysc X X X
6.3 The Cosmic Evolution Equation
Electrificationa X X
International X X
companiesb
Telegraph/telephonec X X
Motorization (internal X X
combustion
engine)a
Welfare state X
Mass education X
Multinational X X X
agenciesb
Computingc X X
Nuclear energya X X
Globalizationb X X X X
Internetb X X
Electronicsc X
Space exploration X X
a
Energy innovation
b
Organizational novelty
123
c
Development in control
Table 6.3 A theoretical selection of cosmic outcomes (Aunger 2007b) [Original title: First known instances of non-equilibrium steady-state transitions]
124
Control Telegraph/telephone; bureaucracy; Information transmission at a distance; rapid 120 Europe, USA
advertising circulation of people; continuity management
within state; mass manipulation of consumer
motivation
Engine Energy Oil/internal combustion engine Efficient, portable power 90 USA, Europe
(multinational) Organization Multinational agency (e.g., UN); Supranational government; international capitalism 70 USA, Europe
transition multinational corporation (e.g.,
Standard Oil, Microsoft)
Control Mass media (radio, TV); mass Fast, broad-scale information dissemination; 60 USA, Europe
production; computer standardized production; universal computation
Nuclear Energy Nuclear reactors Controlled atomic fission 40 USA, Europe
(globalization) Organization Global markets; World Wide Web Significant international capital flows and 30 USA, Europe
transition investment; globalized social and economic
network
Control Digital media Unified representation system for multimodal data 15 USA, Europe
a
Dates in years before present (2000 CE)
b
Uncertain dates
127
128 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
What would remain the same if the tape of life were replayed?
Stephen Jay Gould (1990)
What would remain the same if the tape of the universe were replayed?
Paraphrase of Goulds question (Vidal 2008b)
Answering the latter question, Davies (1998, p. 317) wrote that if the universe
were re-run a second time, there would be no solar system, no Earth and no people.
But the emergence of life and consciousness somewhere and somewhen in the
cosmos is, I believe, assured by the underlying laws of nature. This claim, as
Davies acknowledges, is only an informed intuition. How can we test this intuition
or other intuitions scientifically? This is the issue of the robustness of the emer-
gence of complexity in cosmic evolution.
A first analysis of the tape metaphor shows its limits. If the tape and its player
were perfect, we should get exactly the same results when re-running the tape. So
the thought experiment would be trivial. Yet if our universe self-constructs, one
question is whether small fluctuations, chance events, noise, or random pertur-
bations would lead to slightly different outcomes, or very different ones. This
makes the issue of robustness in cosmic evolution highly stimulating.
This issue is very hard to tackle because of a great weakness of cosmology as a
science: it has only one object of study, our unique universe. More precisely, we
can distinguish two fundamental limitations that Ellis (2007a, p. 1216) pointed
out:
Thesis A1: The universe itself cannot be subjected to physical experimentation.
We cannot re-run the universe with the same or altered conditions to see what would
happen if they were different, so we cannot carry out scientific experiments on the universe
itself.
Thesis A2: The universe cannot be observationally compared with other universes.
We cannot compare the universe with any similar object, nor can we test our hypotheses
about it by observations determining statistical properties of a known class of physically
existing universes.
Our thesis is that it is possible to address these limitations and the issue of
robustness by running computer simulations of our universe. It is important to note
that if we replay the tape of our universe, we dont aim to actually explore the full
space of possible universes. Here we only aim to assess the robustness of the
emergence of the different cosmic outcomes. We thus vary only nondeterministic
dynamical parameters as discussed above (quantum mechanical effects, random
perturbations, nonlinear chaotic dynamics, etc.). Also, it remains an open question
how we vary the random parameters. How often? How strong is the variation?
Various distributions can be tested, from Gaussian distributions, where most
random variations are of average strength and few are weak or strong, to power-
law distributions, where there are few very strong variations, some medium
variations, and most of the time weak random variations.
6.3 The Cosmic Evolution Equation 129
Nlife m Ng NS fS fp ne fl fi
where Nlife(m*) is the number of planets with intelligent life in our particular
universe m*; and
(1) Ng is the number of galaxies in the model
(2) NS is the average number of stars per galaxy
(3) fS is the fraction of stars suitable for life
(4) fp is the fraction of such stars with planetary systems
(5) ne is the mean number of planets that are suitable habitats for life
(6) fl is the fraction of planets on which life originates
(7) fi is the fraction of life-bearing planets with intelligent life.
There are many implicit assumptions in such a framework, for example that
life-supporting stars will be Sun-like; or that life starts necessarily on planets and
not in more exotic places. We also implicitly assume that the parameters are
independent. To deal with dependent parameters, one would need to introduce a
Bayesian probability framework. Additionally, we may have clear definitions of
130 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
what stars or galaxies are, but the issues of defining higher cosmic outcomes such
as life or intelligence remain hugely debatable in science.
The factors Ng and NS can nowadays be estimated, while the recent explosion of
exoplanet discoveries is allowing us to estimate ever more precisely the factors
fS fp ne. However, huge uncertainties remain regarding the last two factors
fl fi.
The main benefit of such a frameworkwhether we consider these seven
factors to be most relevant or othersis that we can in a first approximation
estimate the factors independently. Additionally, the more we progress in our
knowledge of the universe, the larger the distance between factors we can assess.
For example, assessing the number of planets with intelligent life knowing only
the number of galaxies seems very hard. But shorter distances between factors are
easier to assess. For example, Millers famous experiment (1953) tells us that the
probability of forming amino acids out of a primordial soup with an energy source
is high, which is an important insight for evaluating ne fl .
Let us now imagine that we run multiple times a model of our entire universe
m : We can interpret the results of the multiple runs of the simulations as a set of
virtual universes. We then generate a distribution function f m combining the
probability distributions obtained for each factor. However, we need to further
specify a possibility space, which in this case is M resulting from the variation of
random parameters only; and a measure p* on M . Such a virtual ensemble of
simulated universes V may thus be defined as:
V fM ; p ; f m g
Note that the integral is necessary to normalize the result according to the
measure p* and distribution function f(m*). There are important and subtle issues
to make this normalization sound and possible (see again Ellis et al. 2004).
Let us cite some more concrete results such simulation studies might bring. We
might be able to conclude that our universe is robust in galaxy formation, i.e. most
simulation runs lead to galaxy formation. However, it might turn out that our
universe is not robust for intelligent life, i.e. most simulations do not lead to the
emergence of intelligent life.
We can now turn a fresh eye to our question: Are cosmic outcomes necessary or
contingent? We can define a cosmic outcome as necessary if it appears again and
again as we re-run the same universe, as contingent otherwise. For example, let us
take the DNA code in biology: Is it necessary that there is a unique DNA code for
terrestrial or extraterrestrial biology? In biology, this general question is a dispute
over whether evolution is convergent (see e.g. Gould 1990; Conway-Morris 2003
for two contrary viewpoints and arguments). But here we generalize this issue to
6.3 The Cosmic Evolution Equation 131
You might end up having a future subject which is comparative universality we have
all these laws for the universe that cannot be eliminated as ours and you study them, you
talk about them, you compare them, this could be a future subject. Students would be
required to pass exams on their ten possible favorite universes
Gregory Chaitin (Chaitin et al. 2011, p. 339)
This first quote, by Barrow and Tipler, summarizes the core problem of fine-
tuning. The second quote, by Chaitin, illustrates a core idea towards its resolution.
With the robustness issue, we have focused on our universe. To assess to what
extent our universe is fine-tuned, we must study the place of our universe in the
space of possible universes. We call this space the virtual multiverse.
Let us first call a fecund universe a universe generating at least as much
complexity as our own. Are fecund universes rare or common in the multiverse?
This is the core issue of fine-tuning. Answering it requires an exploration of this
132 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
Back in 1991, it seemed very difficult to explore and find alternative universes.
However, one way to overcome this problem is to use computer simulations to test
systematic modifications of parameter values. In varying just one parameter,
2
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6.3 The Cosmic Evolution Equation 133
E fM; p; f mg
We are now talking about cosmic outcomes in other universes. The topic
becomes quite speculative, because it is not clear at all which cosmic outcomes are
the most relevant to assess. The factors in the equation above might be totally
irrelevant. What if other possible universes do not generate objects like galaxies,
stars, and planets, but completely different kinds of complex structures? Nothing
that we know may evolve anymore but other things might! We now see the
fundamental importance of defining cosmic outcomes and the emergence of
complexity in a very general manner, so they can also apply to other possible
universes. Bradford (2011) proposed such a framework when he analyzed
sequences of entropy reduction. Aungers (2007a) system-theoretic approach in
terms of energy innovation, organization, and control is also a higher-level
approach. Turchin (1977) also proposed a cybernetic theory of complexity tran-
sitions with the central concept of metasystem transition. Bedau (2009) also
articulated this issue in detail in the context of artificial life. Theoretical computer
science measures such as algorithmic complexity (see e.g. Li and Vitnyi 1997) or
logical depth (Bennett 1988b) are also valuable tools to assess the complexity of
systems in a universal manner. But these are just a few examples of frameworks to
tackle the general, fascinating, and fundamental problems of the evolution and
measure of complexity.
134 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
We already saw that higher outcomes fl fi are harder to assess. This is precisely
where computer simulations can be very helpful. Typically, there are so many local
interactions in the evolution of complex organisms that it is very hard to trace them
analytically with a deterministic or Newtonian approach. For example, there is no
single equation that allows one to predict the development of an embryo.
Let us now outline some remarkable alternative complex universes that
researchers have recently studied. Gordon McCabe studied variations on the
standard model of particles, by changing the geometrical structure of spacetime.
The result is not the end of any complexity but just the beginning of a new set of
elementary particles. McCabe (2007, 2:38) elaborates:
Universes of a different dimension and/or geometrical signature, will possess a different
local symmetry group, and will therefore possess different sets of possible elementary
particles. Moreover, even universes of the same dimension and geometrical signature will
not necessarily possess the same sets of possible particles. To reiterate, the dimension and
geometrical signature merely determines the largest possible local symmetry group, and
universes with different gauge fields, and different couplings between the gauge fields and
matter fields, will possess different local symmetry groups, and, perforce, will possess
different sets of possible particles.
It thus seems that we can vary basic physics parameters without compromising
all kinds of cosmic evolutions. Who knows what kind of complexity can emerge
from such a new set of particles?
As an illustration of their framework for defining the multiverse, Ellis et al.
(2004) examined some parameter variations in FriedmannLematreRobertson
Walker (FLRW) models. They found life-allowing regions in a phase space
described by the evolution of FLRW models. The fact that they found regions and
not a single point in the phase space shows that there is room for some variation.
So it seems that we can vary fundamental geometrical cosmological parameters
without precluding the appearance of life.
Harnik et al. (2006) constructed a universe without electroweak interactions they
called the Weakless Universe. By adjusting standard model and cosmological
parameters, they were able to obtain a universe remarkably similar to our own:
This Weakless Universe has big-bang nucleosynthesis, structure formation, star for-
mation, stellar burning with a wide range of timescales, stellar nucleosynthesis up to iron
and slightly beyond, and mechanisms to disperse heavy elements through type Ia super-
novae and stellar mergers.
This is a truly remarkable result because the cosmic outcomes are numerous,
relatively high on the scale, and nontrivial. Three factors in the CEE are addressed
more or less directly: Ng NS fS. Maybe strong living creatures could live in the
weakless universe? This remains to be investigated.
Aguire (2001) studied a class of cosmological models in which some or all of
the cosmological parameters differ by orders of magnitude from the values they
assume in the standard hot big-bang cosmology, without precluding in any obvious
way the existence of intelligent life. This study also shows that it is possible to
vary parameters widely without obviously harming the emergence of complexity
as we know it.
6.3 The Cosmic Evolution Equation 135
Jaffe et al. Kimchi (2008) pursued a detailed study of possible universes with
modified quark masses. They define congenial worlds as ones in which the quark
masses allow organic chemistry. Again, they found comfortable regions of
congeniality.
Adams (2008) conducted a parametric survey of stellar stability. He found that
a wide region of the parameter space provides stellar objects with nuclear fusion.
He concluded that the set of parameters necessary to support stars are not par-
ticularly rare.
Stenger (1995, 2000) made an early attempt to explore alternative universes
with simulations. He ran a remarkable simulation of possible universes by con-
sidering four fundamental constants: the strength of electromagnetism a, the strong
nuclear force as, the electron mass, and the proton mass. He then analyzed 100
universes in which the values of the four parameters were generated randomly
from a range five orders of magnitude above to five orders of magnitude below
their values in our universe, that is, over a total range of ten orders of magnitude
(Stenger 2000). The distribution of stellar lifetimes in those universes shows that
most universes have stars that live long enough to allow stellar evolution and
nucleosynthesis of heavy elements. Stengers initial motivation was to refute fine-
tuning arguments, which is why he ironically baptized his simulation Monkey-
God. The implication was that even a stupid monkey playing with cosmic
parameters can create as much complexity as God.
In conclusion, other possible universes are also fine-tuned for some sort of
complexity! These remarkable studies have shown consistently that alternative
complex universes are possible. One might object that such explorations do not yet
assess the higher complexity factors in the CEE. They do not answer the key
question: Would other interesting complex structures like planetary systems, life,
intelligence, or technology evolve in those other universes? But these are only
early attempts in conceptualizing and simulating other possible universes, and the
enterprise is certainly worth pursuing. The fine-tuning issue could then be tackled
seriously, because then we would know far more precisely the likelihood of finding
our universe as it is, in comparison to other possible universes. Such pioneering
studies are just a beginning, and future studies will certainly discover more and
more complex alternative universes.
6.3.5 Summary
Let us now summarize the three main steps necessary to assess how finely-tuned
our universe is:
1. Define a space M of possible universes,
2. Explore this space,
3. Assess the place of our universe in M.
136 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
Let us review step (1). Our analysis on the historical trends of free parameters in
Chap. 5 invites us to start with a weak variation, i.e. varying free parameters in
physical and cosmological models. Why not vary the laws of physics themselves?
This seems a very difficult enterprise, because we do not even know how to make
them vary (see Vaas 1998)! It can also be dubious to do so, since we saw that the
distinction between laws and initial or boundary conditions is fuzzy in cosmology
(Ellis 2007a).
This suggestion to focus on weak variation makes most sense for the following
reasons. First, it is concrete and operational, and has a clear meaning within well
established physics. Second, we assume that supernatural miracles happening in
the middle of cosmic evolution areby definitionimpossible. We assume there
is a consistency and continuity in cosmic evolution. We hypothesize that higher-
level parameters are ultimately reducible to these physics and cosmic ones, so that
the higher levels emerge naturally. Of course, this remains to be shown, and for
practical purposes we might include as given such higher-level parameters in our
studies and simulations. New levels of emergence and new levels of complexity
did historically emerge from lower levels, even if complicated top-down causation
occurs too (see e.g. Ellis 2008). Take for example an economic law like the law of
supply and demand. It did not and could not exist before the appearance of
organized human civilizations. It emerged out of such new forms of organization.
It seems that what we call natural laws could be the result of more and more
regular interactions. For example, as the universe cooled down, new forms of
organization emerged. It seems clear that a few billion years ago there were no
economic laws.
We also need to be more specific about applying probabilities to the ensemble
of possible universes, to avoid the probabilistic fallacies we described. For
example, we must set, arbitrarily or not, upper and lower bounds for parameters.
This is necessary for all practical purposes, because we cant explore the parameter
space of all parameters varying from ? to +?. We thus need to define the
maximum deviation allowed for each parameter.
We must also beware of the one-factor-at-a-time paradox. We must define a
probability measure on the parameter space. I refer the reader to (Koperski 2005)
and (Ellis et al. 2004) for detailed arguments that measure-theoretic grounds can
be specified to assess fine-tuning. It is also crucial to define cosmic outcomes to
specify the object of fine-tuning we aim to address. Do we talk about fine-tuning
for nucleosynthesis? For atoms? Stars? Life? Intelligence? Or for the more general
emergence of complexity?
Step (2) requires us to explore the possibility space. The simplest exploration is
to re-run the tape of our universe. But this only tackles the issue of the robustness
of the universe. If we want to address the fine-tuning issue, we must also run and
re-run tapes of other possible universes. This will bring us insights into how our
universe and others are parameter sensitive, and how they generate complex
outcomes. Although we always need good theoretical models to start with, we
need to use computer simulations to explore the huge parameter landscape we are
6.3 The Cosmic Evolution Equation 137
talking about. This landscape is not just very big, but really huge. Because we have
neither the desire nor the resources to explore the space blindly, it also makes most
sense to use simulations to test particular hypotheses and theories. As we shall see
in Chap. 8, if we consider Lee Smolins cosmological natural selection theory, and
find alternative universes with more black holes (the cosmic outcome under
consideration) in them by tweaking parameters, this is a way to falsify the theory.
The last step (3) is to compare the distribution functions of the cosmic outcomes
of interest to the space M of possible universes. In other words, we assess the
probability of finding a universe with outcome O. Note that this is the crucial
difference between tackling the robustness and the fine-tuning issues. In robustness
analysis, we run multiple times the same universe simulation, changing only the
random dynamical parameters. We compare multiple runs of the same universe. In
fine-tuning analysis, we run multiple different universe simulations, changing a
wide number of parameters. We compare our universe to the set of possible
universes. How typical or atypical is our universe in the space of possible uni-
verses? The results of such simulation experiments will enable us to answer this
question. Ideally, we shall be in a position to assess the likelihood or unlikelihood
of complexity emergence in the space of possible universes. Even better than
assessing specific cosmic outcomes, which might bias us toward a universe-centric
perspective, we can aim to assess the probability of finding universes that display
open-ended evolutionary mechanisms leading to increasingly complex cosmic
outcomes.
To the traditionally trained cosmologist, this enterprise might seem totally
unconventional. And it is. This is why I have chosen to give it a new name,
artificial cosmogenesis. It might also seem out of reach given the computational
resources needed. As we shall see in Chap. 7, when the sheer computational
resources available grow more than exponentially, this allows us in principle to
increase accordingly the complexity and richness of our computer simulations.
However, computer simulations, even given huge computational resources, are
not the whole of the story. They are only a necessary condition to resolve the
issues. We still need theories and fundamental understanding to set up simulations,
to know what to look for in the resulting data, and to interpret the results.
Fortunately, engineers and professional model makers have developed a wide
variety of tools to test multiple variables, but they have rarely been used in the
context of cosmology. Let us just mention of few of them. A starting point is to use
the tools of global sensitivity analysis (see e.g. Saltelli et al. 2008). These include
advanced statistical approaches such as Latin hypercube sampling, multivariate
stratified sampling, and Monte Carlo simulations for finding dynamic confidence
intervals. System dynamics and engineering have further tools to offer, such as
phase portraits or probabilistic designs. The classic book by Sterman (2000)
remains a reference and a comprehensive introduction to the modeling and sim-
ulation of complex systems.
138 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
God or Multiverse?
We dont need these hypotheses to study fine-tuning,
but we may need them to explain fine-tuning.
I went into great detail to define the fine-tuning issue precisely to allow its sci-
entific study. I was addressing the question: Is there fine-tuning? My conclusion
is that at most it is a conjecture, a proof being largely out of reach. More spe-
cifically, we saw that parameter sensitivity is different from fine-tuning and is in
fact not surprising. Rick Bradford has shown that parameter sensitivity can be
expected in any complex universe. So neither is it surprising that varying one
parameter would not lead to an interesting complex universe. But the problem of
why we happen to inhabit a parameter-sensitive universe in the space of possible
universes remains open. Suppose the fine-tuning conjecture is true. How can we
explain fine-tuning? What are the possible explanations?
I now briefly review the main classical explanations: skepticism, necessity,
fecundity, god of the gaps, chance of the gaps, WAP of the gaps, multiverse, and
design. I shall treat two additional evolutionary explanation in Chap. 8: cosmo-
logical natural selection and cosmological artificial selection. Once we analyze
these possible solutions, we naturally tend to jump to the next arduous issues: the
metaphysical ones (see e.g. Parfit 1998). Indeed, whatever answer X you give to
140 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
fine-tuning, you can ask: Why is there X in the first place? Where did X come
from? When tackling these more speculative and metaphysical questions in
Chap. 8, we shall consider fine-tuning not in isolation but in connection with
another great issue: our far future.
6.4.1 Skepticism
Skeptics dispute that fine-tuning would be an issue at all. As we saw, the issue
stems from difficulties in defining probabilities rigorously (e.g. Colyvan et al.
2005; McGrew et al. 2001). However, we saw that with additional measure-
theoretical considerations and hypotheses, authors can overcome this obstacle (see
e.g. Koperski 2005; Ellis et al. 2004).
Furthermore, if something like ACosm is pursued, probabilities can be derived
from datasets resulting from simulation runs. They can then be treated with sta-
tistical tools, just like any other data in science. There would no longer be room for
such arguments.
It is always possible to remain skeptical on any issue. Critical reasoning
(philosophical dimension 4) is helpful for stimulating dialectical (philosophical
dimension 5) discussions, but lacks a connection with real-world problems, and
hence with the first-order dimensions of our worldviews. The skeptical position is
of second order, and thus does not even consider the issue worthy of explanation.
In sum, it is not even a position. But I include it here for the sake of completeness.
6.4.2 Necessity
The core of this position is that the key issue is free parameters, not fine-tuning. A
lot of parameters have been captured in the past, and there is no reason for this
trend to end. There is a mathematical or physical necessity behind the fundamental
parameters and laws that is still to be discovered. A future theory would explain
why these parameters must have the value they have. Therefore no parameters
would be left to be fine-tuned, and the fine-tuning issue would be solved. This
would lead to a theory of everything or ultimate explanation. The position is
logically possible, but remains to be proven.
This reasoning is the implicit position of most physicists because it seems to be
the most scientific approach. However, it is unlikely that all constants will be
deduced from a theory. We need input from physical reality at some point. The
underlying assumption is that nature is as it is because this is the only possible
nature consistent with itself (Chew 1968). In this camp, researchers might argue
that it is certainly wiser to interpret the size of the possible multiverse as the size of
our ignorance.
6.4 Classical Fine-Tuning Explanations 141
This is correct, but this time the mystery would be metaphysical: Why some-
thing rather than nothing? Ellis is concerned about a genuine ultimate theory. We
must acknowledge that such a hypothetical theory would solve the fine-tuning
issue, albeit not the metaphysical one. Again, the metaphysical mystery of exis-
tence would remain whatever our explanation of fine-tuning (see also Vidal
2012a).
Actively pursuing the reduction of free parameters is the approach most faithful
to physics. However, it is unlikely to succeed in its utmost extrapolation down to
zero parameters.
In fact there are two opposite views on the matter: necessity and fecundity.
Gardner (1986) reminds us that the former is the view that only one kind of
universe is possiblethe one we know. This was skillfully defended by the
Harvard chemist Lawrence Henderson. The opposite, fecundity view comes from
Leibniz, who argued exactly the opposite: He believed an infinity of universes are
logically possible and that God selected the one he liked best. Let us consider the
fecundity response more closelyand without God.
142 6 The Fine-Tuning Conjecture
6.4.3 Fecundity
The principle of fecundity is that intelligent life of some form will emerge under
extremely varied circumstances (Tegmark et al. 2006, p. 4). Let us imagine that
we have enough data from simulations or unforeseen theoretical argument to
precisely assess the fecundity explanation. Two results are logically possible. We
find either that fecund universes are common or that they are not. If they are
common, no more fine-tuning explanation is needed, and this would indeed solve
the fine-tuning issue. But the problem then shifts to a metaphysical one. Why
would there be so many fecund universes in the first place? Is it due to a special
universe-generating mechanism? If so, doesnt that require further explanation?
If, on the contrary, we find that fecund universes are rare, the fine-tuning issue
is not solved, and needs further explanation. The limiting case is reached if it turns
out that there is only one possible universe, ours. Then we are back to the necessity
explanation. Our universe wouldnt be fine-tuned because there was simply no
other option. Note that the study of alternative complex universes (outlined in
Sect. 6.3.4) already rules out this possibility for cosmic outcomes as high as star
formation and heavy element dispersion. The question remains open only for
higher outcomes such as life or intelligence.
As a warning, it is easy to manipulate the results of arguments regarding
fecundity, simply by changing the definition of possible universes. If we a priori
consider a small set M of possible universes, the fecundity principle may easily be
satisfied. If on the other hand, we consider a very widely defined M, then our kind of
universe may be rarer in this space M. To gain further insights, we would need to
explore the space M, both with theoretical considerations and computer
simulations.
God as both the creator and the fine-tuner of the universe is a popular view. It is in
a certain sense an elegant solution, because it solves both the existence problem
(metaphysical) and the fine-tuning problem at the same time. One could even
argue that God as the great architect has had a positive influence on the devel-
opment of science. In this view of God, popular in medieval times, God doesnt
intervene. He just provides a blueprint, which is very different from a controlling
God. Such a conception allowed the development of science, because science
consisted in finding Gods laws, which were nothing other than physical laws.
Doing science was then equivalent to seeking and worshiping God.
God as a key feature in a comprehensive theological worldview is an entirely
consistent position. As we saw in detail in Part I, a theological worldview scores
high on many subjective and intersubjective criteria. In this philosophical (not
6.4 Classical Fine-Tuning Explanations 143
theological) work, I shall not explore this option further because it shifts the
problems of fine-tuning and creation to theology.
Obviously, as a rational explanation for fine-tuning, God suffers from the God-
of-the-gaps critique. Whatever issue remains unexplained in our worldview, fine-
tuning or other, God can fill the gap.
The laws of physics and the parameters of our universe just happened by chance.
There is nothing more to explain here. Scientifically, this is an empty statement,
which is no better than the God of the gaps. As Ellis (2007a, p. 1258) wrote, from
this viewpoint there is really no difference between design and chance, for they
have not been shown to lead to different physical predictions. It is logically
similar to the God (or design) explanation, and so it seems fitting to call it a
chance-of-the-gaps explanation.
6.4.7 Multiverse
6.4.8 Design
In this stance, our universe is the result of a purposeful design. It is worth stressing
that the agent responsible for design is not necessarily a supernatural theistic God
(Bostrom 2002, pp. 1112). Of course, this is the most typical option, which leads
to the God explanation. But logically, it needs not to be.
Can we imagine naturalistic and not supernatural design? Certainly. Systems
exhibiting features of design such as teleology or parameter sensitivity can emerge
either from natural selection processes, for example living organisms (see Daw-
kins 1996), or from artificial processes such as engineering (like a watch). A
middle way between the two is found in artificial selection, where intentional
breeding allows breeders to select certain traits over others.
What if the same applies to the universe as a whole? In Chap. 8, we shall look
in more detail at two such options, cosmological natural selection and
6.4 Classical Fine-Tuning Explanations 145
6.5 Conclusion
We saw logical, probabilistic and physical fallacies around fine-tuning which are
rarely avoided. The most striking logical fallacy is to vary just one parameter at a
time, which drastically reduces the exploration of the parameter space. The use of
probabilities is an essential step in formulating the fine-tuning argument. But it
needs careful additional hypotheses to make it cogent (such as in choosing a
probability theory framework, a measure, and a distribution function). The physics
underlying fine-tuning arguments is often wrong. Many fallacies occur and
reoccur.
Many authors mix fine-tuning with other issues, such as free parameters,
parameter sensitivity, metaphysical issues, anthropic principles, observation
selection effects, teleology, or theology.
Given the difficulty of assessing the importance of fine-tuning for life seriously,
it is too early to say whether there is fine-tuning of physics and cosmic parameters.
However, we saw several examples of alternative possible universes that show
remarkably complex cosmic outcomes and dynamics. The emergence of com-
plexity is not the sole prerogative of our universe. But for such complex cosmic
outcomes as intelligent life, fine-tuning remains a conjecture.
Let us summarize three steps to clarify fine-tuning, once we have debunked
fallacies and distinguished it from other issues. First, the scientific approach to
tackle the source of fine-tuning is to capture free parameters. The role of science is
to propose new theories that need fewer free parameters. This approach remains
the most robust and promising. It should stay the absolute priority. Second, if free
parameters remain, dont use explanations of the gaps! God of the gaps, chance of
the gaps, or WAP of the gaps are last-aid intellectual survival kits. It is important
not to confuse selection effects with causal explanations providing mechanisms to
explain fine-tuning. Third, we can assess the typicality of our universe. To achieve
this, we need to explore the parameter space of possible universes. This involves
simulating not only our universe (to assess its robustness) but also other possible
universes (to assess fine-tuning). The exploration of virtual universes will allow us
to assess how likely it is for a universe to produce astrophysical bodies, bio-
chemistry, life, intelligence, or humanity.
This exploration constitutes the artificial cosmogenesis (ACosm) field of
research, which has already begun. But can we really hope to play or replay the
tape of universes? How on Earth can we do that? To answer this, we now come to
the third part of this book, a journey into our far future. We begin with an
exploration of the future of scientific simulations.
Part III
Our Future in the Universe
We are now entering the third part of our journey. Our challenge is to answer the
age-old questions Where are we going? Chaps. 710) and What is good and
what is evil? (Chap. 10). As usual, we ask these questions in a cosmological
context with a maximal scope in space and time. So we are concerned about where
we are going in the extremely far future. The most extreme point is the last
point, which leads us naturally to the field of eschatology. The word comes from
the Greek eskhatos (last), and logos (doctrine or theory). The word eschatology
introduces a bias similar to the word ultimate. We saw that the latter comes
from ultimare, which means to come to an end, while the former is the doctrine
of last things. Taken literally, those words a priori rule out cyclical views of the
universe, where there is no past or future end point.
Our discussion of cognitive attractors to understand the origin (Chap. 4) also
applies to the future. Let us give brief hints of why it is the case. What are our
cognitive attractors for the future? What do we expect? In the optimistic case,
civilizations long for a kind of immortality (see Chap. 10). It can take the form of a
point (e.g., heaven) or a cycle (e.g., with reincarnation cycles). We find the idea of
multiple reincarnation or resurrection not only in Eastern philosophies, but also in
contemporary Christian theology (see e.g., Hick 1976; Steinhart 2008). From a
physical perspective, as we shall see below, the attractor point can be a cosmic
doom scenario, where everything is stabilized to a uniform and lifeless state. Many
cosmological models are cyclical, such as Tolmans (1934), the phoenix universe
(Dicke and Peebles 1979), the famous chaotic inflation scenario (Linde 1990),
Smolins (1992) cosmological natural selection, or Penroses (2011) recent con-
formal cyclical cosmology. We also mentioned in Chap. 4 the model of continuous
creation of Hoyle and Narlikar, which is associated with a line rather than a point
or a cycle. There are also cosmological models that include a role for intelligent
life, which we shall examine in more detail in Chap. 8. As with the origin, there are
148 Part III: Our Future in the Universe
psychological difficulties over accepting a cyclic future. But this is a problem only
if one holds a point-like metaphysics that requires an ultimate beginning or end.
Importantly, different eschatologies focus on different ends. Do we mean the
end of a human life? Of humanity? or of all things? Not surprisingly, we focus here
on the end of all things, since we want to avoid anthropocentrism or spe-
cies-centrism. Inspired by Freitas (1979, Sect. 22.4.4), I distinguish four kinds of
eschatology: eternalistic, historical, naturalistic, and physical.
Eternalistic eschatologies see time as an endless cycle of eternal recurrence. We
already discussed eternal return (Sect. 4.3.4) and its many associated difficulties.
For the stoics of ancient Greece and for Indian thinkers, time moves in cycles.
Buddhists and Hindus believe in cycles of creations and destruction.
Historical eschatologies are grounded in linear time. Western traditions such as
Christianity, Judaism, or Islam believe in a beginning and an end of time. Even the
title of this book, The Beginning and the End, shows this Western bias. In Platos
Republic, death is accompanied by a judgment, where the immortal soul is
rewarded or punished before choosing the condition of its next existence. The
nature of this new existence is a topic in theology.
Naturalistic eschatologies emphasize harmony with nature. Goodness is seen as
unity with nature, while wrongness is seen as alienation from nature. Interestingly,
the main concern is to be in harmony with nature here and now, and not the
prospect of a far future state after death. This is illustrated in Taoism, where there
is virtually no interest in the beginning or the end of the universe (Ward 2002, p.
235).
Eschatology has most often been discussed within religious doctrines. But this
need not be. Milan Cirkovic (2003) wrote a review of scientific approaches to this
topic, physical eschatology, gathering more than 200 references. Still, if we
consider from a symmetry argument that past and future studies should have equal
importance in treatment, there are surprisingly few studies about the far future
universe compared with studies of the early universe. Cirkovic argued that
physical eschatology is a part of science:
Since the laws of physics do not distinguish between past and future (with minor and poorly
understood exceptions in the field of particle physics), we do not have a prima facie reason
for preferring classical cosmology to physical eschatology in the theoretical domain.
It is correct that most physical laws are reversible in time with the notable
exception of thermodynamics. The reconciliation of classical, relativistic, and
quantum theories with thermodynamics is a major challenge in contemporary
physics. It gives rise to thorny issues such as the arrow of time. Inspired by a
science fiction novel by Gregory Benford (1978), Freitas proposed that an
advanced civilization would focus on a thermodynamic eschatology striving to
halt or reverse entropic processes in this universe. However, it is not necessarily
the best strategy to fight frontally against such a widely confirmed physical law as
Part III: Our Future in the Universe 149
the second law. It leads to the dream of a perpetual motion machines (Ord-Hume
1977). On the contrary, it was by accepting the laws of conservation of energy that
engineers were able to design more and more efficient engines and machines.
Thanks to modern theoretical physics and astrophysics, many of the questions
regarding the ultimate fate of the universe are thus now quantitatively addressed
within the field of physical eschatology. What will happen to the Earth and the Sun
in the far future? The story developed by modern science is a gloomy one. In about
5 billion years, our solar system will meet its end, with our Sun turning into a red
giant star, making the surface of Earth much too hot for the continuation of life as
we know it. The solution then appears to be easy: migration. But even if life were
to colonize other solar systems, there will be a creeping death of all stars in
galaxies. Once stars have converted the available supply of hydrogen into heavier
elements, new star formation will come to an end in the galaxy. In fact, the
problem is worse. It is estimated that even very massive objects such as black
holes will evaporate in about 1098 years (Adams and Laughlin 1997).
Generally, the main lesson of physical eschatology is that in the long term the
universe will evolve irreversibly toward a state of maximum entropy, or heat
death. This is a consequence of the second law of thermodynamics, one of the
most general laws of physics. It was first applied to the universe as a whole by
Hermann von Helmholtz in 1854. Since this heat death discovery, a pessimistic
worldview has spread that sees the existence of humanity as purposeless and
accidental in the universe (e.g., B. Russell 1923; S. Weinberg 1993b). The fatalism
of this worldview can lead people to lose their sense of the meaning of life.
Modern cosmology shows that there are some other models of the end of the
universe (such as Big Bounce, Big Rip, Big Crunch: for an up-to-date review see
Vaas 2006). The point is that none of them allows the possibility of the indefinite
continuation of life as we know it. If any of the cosmic doom scenario is correct, it
implies that the indefinite continuation of life is impossible in this universe. What
is the point of living in a universe doomed to annihilation? Ultimately, why should
we try to solve the mundane challenges of our daily lives and societies if we
cannot even imagine a promising future for life in the universe? If we recognize
this fundamental issue, then we should certainly do something to avoid it, and thus
try to change the future of the universe.
On the other hand, there is an apparent paradox caused by this increase of
entropy and the accelerating increase of complexity in the universe (e.g., Livio
2000; Chaisson 2001; Morowitz 2002; Kurzweil 2005). Chaisson (2001) showed
with a thermodynamic analysis that this paradox can be resolved. It is the
expansion of the universe itself that allows a decrease of entropy locally, while
there remains an increase in entropy globally. But which of the two trends will turn
out to be dominant in the long term remains unsettled.
In short, are we ultimately going toward rising entropy or rising complexity? A
few authors have proposed some speculative solutions, but we shall see that they
are insufficient because none of them presently allows the infinite continuation of
intelligent life. I shall argue instead that intelligent civilization in the far future
could make a new universe (Chap. 8). Although this may sound like a proposition
150 Part III: Our Future in the Universe
What would be your opinion of this CEO? At the very least, youd think that hes
not highly morally developed because he doesnt care about future generations. I
have the same impression when friends or colleagues quickly dismiss cosmic
doom scenarios as not their problem because they are too far in the future. The
fact that so many people on Earth care about global warming is a truly extraor-
dinary shift of mindset. It means we have extended our worldviews to future
generations and to planet Earth as a whole. As we extend our worldview further,
why should we stop there, with a sphere of compassion limited to the size of our
tiny planet? I predict that future generations will increasingly care not only about
global warming but also about the heat death of the universe, which is actually a
universal cooling, or indeed about any cosmic doom scenario that could threaten
the survival of life in the universe.
What is good and what is evil? I address this issue in Chap. 10. What lessons
can we learn from our cosmological worldview? What does this cosmological
perspective imply for our actions and values here and now? What is our purpose in
the universe? What are the ultimate goals or results that intelligence is seeking in
the universe? What is the meaning of life in this cosmological perspective? At first
sight, evolutionary reasoning tells us that survival is the ultimate value. But sur-
vival of what? And for how long? Can we aim as high as immortality? If so, which
kind of immortality can we long for?
Guessing the future is a notoriously perilous enterprise. Part III will thus be
more speculative. In Chap. 8, we explore a philosophical extension of Lee Smo-
lins cosmological natural selection (CNS), which is itself already often regarded
as speculative. In Chap. 9, I shall explore heuristics to search for ETI, and even
argue that we may well already have found ETI much more advanced than us.
Speculating on those issues can easily lead us too far. For this reason, we need
to have clear ideas on why we speculate. As I wrote in the preface, I distinguish
three kinds of speculations to navigate into their variety (Vidal 2012a):
1. Scientific: a speculation is scientific, if we have strong reasons to think that
future observations or experimentations will corroborate or refute it.
2. Philosophical: a speculation is philosophical, if it extrapolates from scientific
knowledge and philosophical principles to answer some fundamental philo-
sophical problems.
3. Fictional: a speculation is fictional, if it extends beyond scientific and philo-
sophical speculations.
Let us outline how we shall tackle those numerous issues:
Chapter 7 explores the future of scientific simulations, and the implications for
our understanding of the universe. As Paul Davies wrote above, through cosmic
evolution and the emergence of humans and science, the laws of the universe
have engineered their own comprehension. This self-awareness is dazzling.
Where will this trend find a limit? We further develop and motivate the already
mentioned extension of Artificial Life to Artificial Cosmogenesis.
152 Part III: Our Future in the Universe
Abstract This chapter explores the far future of scientific simulations. It is argued
that the path towards a simulation of an entire universe is an expected outcome of
our scientific simulation endeavors. I describe the exponential increase of com-
puting resources in a cosmological context, using Chaissons energy rate density
complexity metric. Simulating the open-ended rise of levels of complexity in the
physical, biological, and cultural realms is the challenge of simulating an entire
universe. However, such an effort will require us to bridge the gaps in our
knowledge of cosmic evolution, which is necessary to replay the tape of our and
other possible universes. We elaborate the distinction between real-world
and artificial-world modeling, the latter being at the heart of the artificial life and
artificial cosmogenesis philosophy. We critically discuss the idea that we may be
living in a computer simulation.
I see no reason (in the really distant future) why all model-making,
and in this I include all law-discovering,
should not be carried on, as a routine matter, inside computers.
(Ashby 1981a, p. 353)
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154 7 The Future of Scientific Simulations
We may note two important transitions in the history of human culture. The first is
the externalization of memory through the invention of writing. This allowed
accurate reproduction and safeguarded knowledge, which could easily be distorted
or lost in an oral tradition. The second is the externalization of computation
through the invention of computing devices. The general purpose computer was
inspired by the work of Church, Gdel, Kleene, and Turing, and its formal
specification constitutes the most general computing device (see Davis 2000 for a
history of computation). The consequences of this latter transition are arguably at
least as significant as the invention of writing (for a more systematic analysis on
the externalization of our cognition, see Vidal 2014). In particular, the changes that
have followed the introduction of computers in scientific inquiry are important,
and remain underestimated and too little studied (see however Floridi 2003 for a
good starting point).
Computing resources have grown exponentially, at least for over a century.
There is a lot of literature about this subject (see e.g. Kurzweil 1999, 2005; and
references therein). Moores famous law states that the number of transistors
that can be fabricated on a single microprocessor doubles every 18 months.
Exponential increases in processing speed and memory capacity are direct con-
sequences of the law. What are the limits of computer simulations in the future?
Although there is no Moores law for the efficiency of our algorithms, the steady
growth in raw computational power provides free computational energy to
increase the complexity of our models and simulations. This should lead to pre-
dictions with longer range and more precision. Apart from the computational
limitation theorems (such as the undecidability of the halting problem, the com-
putational version of Gdels theorem proved by Turing), the only limit to this
trend is the physical limit of matter or the universe itself (Bremermann 1982;
Lloyd 2000; Krauss and Starkman 2004). As argued by Lloyd (2000, 2005) and
7.2 Increase of Computing Resources 155
Kurzweil (2005, p. 362), we should be aware that the ultimate computing device
an intelligent civilization could use in the distant future is a maximally dense
object, i.e. a black hole.
From a cosmic outlook, Moores trend is in fact part of a much more general
trend which started with the birth of galaxies. Cosmologist and complexity theorist
Eric Chaisson proposed a quantitative metric to characterize the dynamical (rather
than structural) complexity of physical, biological, and cultural complex systems
(Chaisson 2001, 2003): the free energy rate density (denoted UM) is the rate at
which free energy transits in a complex system of a given mass (see Fig. 7.1). Its
dimension is energy per unit time per unit mass (erg s-1 g-1). To give some
examples (Chaisson 2003, p. 96), a star has a value *1, planets *102,
plants *103, human beings *104, human brains *105, and current micropro-
cessors *1010. According to this metric, complexity has risen at a rate faster than
exponential in recent times. Accompanying this complexity increase is a tendency
to do ever more, with ever less energy, time, and spacea phenomenon also called
ephemeralization (Fuller 1969; Heylighen 2007), or spacetime energy-matter
(STEM) compression (Smart 2009). Hence complex systems tend to use less and
less space and time, while their energy and matter flows become more and more
dense.
In Thomas Rays (1991) artificial life simulation Tierra, digital life competes
for CPU time, which is analogous to energy in the organic world, while memory is
analogous to a spatial resource. The agents thus compete for fundamental prop-
erties of computers (CPU time, memory) rather as we compete for fundamental
physical properties of our universe (energy, space). This design is certainly one of
the key reasons for the impressive growth of complexity observed in this
simulation.
Fig. 7.1 The rise of free energy rate density, UM, plotted as histograms starting at those times
when various open structures emerged in nature, has been rapid in the last few billion years, much
as expected from both subjective intuition and objective thermodynamics. The solid curve
approximates the increase in normalized energy flows best characterizing order, form, and
structure for a range of systems throughout the history of the universe. The circled insets zoom in
on further measurements or calculations of the free energy rate density for three representative
systemsstars, plants, and societytypifying physical, biological and cultural evolution,
respectively (Fig. from Chaisson 2003, p. 97). Many more measurements are found in (Chaisson
2001). Microprocessors are outside the scale of this diagram: They appear at 1010 on the UM axis
the physical level, since it starts from the beginning of the universe to generate the
large-scale structures of the universe.
We must acknowledge significant difficulties of conceptual, methodological,
and cultural integration between the different disciplines involved. Such an
ambitious undertaking must overcome all-too-human social and academic
boundaries between knowledge disciplines. In Part I (Sect. 3.2), I proposed to
construct synthetic scientific worldviews with systems theory, problem solving,
and evolutionary theory as three generic interdisciplinary approaches. The ideal is
to aim at a seamless link between simulations in physics, biology, and social
sciences (culture). If this were to happen, we would have the basic tools to work
toward a model simulating the entire universe. The search for such bridges is
obviously necessary if we want to tackle such difficult issues as the origin of life,
where we aim to explain the emergence of life out of physico-chemical processes.
7.4 Replaying the Tape of the Universe 157
Astronomy, astrophysics, and cosmology are empirical but not experimental sci-
ences. It is possible to gather a lot of data about a wide variety of astrophysical
systems, but unlike in the experimental sciences, we cannot design smart exper-
iments to force natures cosmic outcomes. However, computer simulations are
progressively inaugurating a revolution in science by allowing us to conduct
simulated or virtual experiments (which are admittedly imperfect compared to real
experiments).
We saw (in Sect. 6.3) that such an approach holds promise for tackling the
question of the robustness of the emergence of complexity (by replaying the tape
of our universe) and the fine-tuning issue (by playing and replaying tapes of
alternative universes).
Let us take seriously the increase of computing resources. The simulation of an
entire universe can be seen as perhaps the ultimate challenge for simulations in
science. But what kind of simulation would it be? What could it be used for? To
answer these questions, we now distinguish between two kinds of modeling.
A computer simulation can be defined as a model where some aspects of the world
are chosen for modeling and the rest ignored. When we run a simplified model on
hardware more computationally efficient than the physical system being modeled,
we can run the model faster than the phenomenon modeled, and thus predict our
world. The paradigm of Artificial Life (ALife) differs strongly from such traditional
modeling, by studying not only life as we know it but also life as it could be
(Langton 1992, Sect. 1). We propose to extend this modeling technique to any
process and not just to life, leading to the more general distinction between pro-
cesses as we know them and processes as they could be (Redko 1999). I call the two
kinds of modeling respectively real-world modeling and artificial-world modeling.
Real-world modeling is the endeavor of modeling processes as we know them.
This includes traditional scientific modeling, such as models in physics or weather
forecasting, but also applied evolutionary models, etc. The goal of such models is
to better understand our world, and make predictions about it. For what would a
real-world simulation of an entire universe be useful? We saw it would allow us to
test the robustness of the emergence of complexity. Moreover, we could think that
it would provide us with increased understanding of and predictive power over our
world. But things are not so simple. First, if the simulation were really of the entire
universe, it should leave nothing out, which would be a strange situation. It would
imply that the model (simulation) was as complex as our universe. Such a simu-
lation would thus provide no way to systematically predict all aspects of our
universe, because it would not be possible to run it faster than real physical
158 7 The Future of Scientific Simulations
processes. Another limiting argument is that more computational power does not
necessarily mean better predictive abilities. This is pretty clear when considering
chaotic systems such as the weather, which rapidly become unpredictable. A
simulation has to be simpler than reality if it is to be of any practical use. Hence in
the context of replaying the tape of our universe we would still have to
investigate a simplified simulation of our universe.
Artificial-world modeling is the endeavor of modeling processes as they could
be. The aim is to find the fundamental formal rules of the system (of life in the case
of ALife). The goal of ALife is not to model life exactly as we know it, but to
decipher the most simple and general principles underlying life and to implement
them in a simulation. With this approach, one can explore new, different, life-like
systems. Wolfram (2002) took a similar approach when exploring different rules
and initial conditions on cellular automata, and observing the resulting behavior of
the system. It is legitimate to emphasize that this is a new kind of science which
is in sharp contrast to traditional science and its focus on modeling or simulating
reality. There is thus a creative aspect in artificial-world modeling, which is why
many artists have enthusiastically depicted imaginary ALife worlds. What would
an artificial-world simulation of an entire universe be useful for? We would be
able not only to replay the tape of our universe but also to play and replay the
tape of alternative universes. We saw that this endeavor constitutes a research
program for tackling the fine-tuning issue in cosmology.
Should this artificial world modeling of an entire universe be interpreted as a
simulation or as a realization (Pattee 1989)? Here we consider the former possi-
bility, with the simulation hypothesis. We shall consider the realization alternative
later, in Chap. 8, with the philosophical scenario of cosmological artificial
selection.
Let us assume what we have argued in the previous section, i.e. that intelligent life
will indeed be able at some point to simulate an entire universe. If such a simu-
lation is purely digital, thus pursuing the research program of soft ALife, this leads
to the simulation hypothesis, which has two main aspects. First, looking into the
future, it means that we would effectively create a whole universe simulation, as
has been imagined in science fiction stories and novels such as those of Asimov
(1956) or Egan (2002). Very well then! A second possibility is that we ourselves
could be part of a simulation run by a superior intelligence (see e.g. Bostrom 2003;
Barrow 2007b; Martin 2006). Although these scenarios are fascinating, they suffer
from two fundamental problems. First is the hardware problem: On what physical
device would such a simulation run? Is there an infinity of simulation levels?
Second, such a hypothesis is uninformative. Indeed, following Batesons (1972)
definition of information as a difference which makes a difference, the simu-
lation hypothesis makes no practical or theoretical difference. Unless we find a
7.6 The Simulation Hypothesis 159
bug in reality, or a property that could only exist in a simulation and not in
reality, this hypothesis seems useless, a mere fictional speculation. A more com-
prehensive criticism of these ideas can be found in (Polya 2004).
The ontological status of this simulation would be reflected by the states of the
hardware running it, whatever the realism of the simulation. From this point of
view, we can argue that it remains a simulation, and not a realization (Harnad
1994). Is there another possibility for realizing a simulation of an entire universe?
That is what we shall explore in Chap. 8.
Open Questions
1
http://evodevouniverse.com/wiki/Research_on_free_energy_rate_density
160 7 The Future of Scientific Simulations
Bang era that decrease as the universe cools down. The energy rate density then
starts to grow exponentially with the appearance of life. This energy pattern
bears a striking resemblance to the energy pattern of the life cycle of a living
organism from its birth through its maturity stage.
On February 3, 2010, alone in my office, I gave a seminar about cosmic
embryogenesis (Vidal 2010d). Sad schizophrenia? No, cutting-edge technology.
Indeed, colleagues of mine were attending from several corners of the world. How
was it possible? Richard Gordon set up in the virtual environment Second Life an
online International Embryo Physics course to stimulate efforts to reverse-engineer
the process of embryological development. Thinking about biology and cosmology
prompts the question:
To what extent can a biological view of the universe give us new insights?
In a landmark paper, Burbidge, Fowler, and Hoyle (1957) showed the mech-
anisms responsible for the progressive synthesis of heavy chemical elements, or
stellar nucleosynthesis. The unchanging table of periodic elements we all learn at
school gives an incorrect picture, because those elements have a history. It took
billions of years for them to stabilize, although the formation of chemical elements
is now largely stabilized. John Smart (2009) hypothesized that there might be a
cosmic differentiation of chemical elements, which is now stabilized, analogous to
cell differentiation in the development of multicellular organisms. Our blood cells
dont suddenly turn into neuron cells, just as hydrogen atoms dont suddenly turn
into gold. We can also see primordial nucleosynthesis as a progressive differen-
tiation process, where protons and neutrons form atomic nuclei; then atomic nuclei
and electrons form atoms, including isotopes of hydrogen, helium, and lithium.
Chapter 8
Cosmological Selections
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162 8 Cosmological Selections
How can we apply evolutionary thinking to the universe? What kind of evo-
lutionary selection can be applied? How would such a selection function? Lee
Smolin has attempted to apply the paradigm of adaptive evolution to the cosmos,
with the theory of cosmological natural selection (CNS). What are the strengths
and weaknesses of CNS?
I first briefly discuss biological selection mechanisms and their possible
counterparts in cosmology. Then I outline CNS as a promising evolutionary
explanation of fine-tuning, and I point out its weaknesses, especially its limited
scope. Next, I widen the philosophical scope to introduce cosmological artificial
selection (CAS), which is an extension of CNS advancing an evolutionary
explanation of fine-tuning that includes a role for intelligent life. CNS and CAS
apply evolutionary logic to the universe as a whole. Given the speculative nature
of those theories, I formulate objections and address their limitations. Since
evolutionary theories have successfully explained adaptation and complexity in so
many areas, they hold good promise to explain the complexity of our universe at
large. I also present CAS as a promising scenario in which to reveal the long-term
meaning of life and intelligence in the universe.
In biology, there are three selection mechanisms: natural, artificial, and sexual.
Let us start with a brief overview.
Natural selection is the central mechanism of evolution. There are four con-
ditions for natural selection to act on any property of a species (Ridley 2004,
p. 74):
Fig. 8.1 Neighbor-joining trees for domestic dogs and grey wolves (Adapted from von Holdt
et al. 2010). See the original paper for further details. The variety of dogs produced by humans
illustrates the power of artificial selection
all employ it, and that its power is now being explicitly exploited in the design of
organisms, drugs and computer software by one of evolutions most complex and adaptive
creationsthe human species.
8.1 Evolutionary Selection 165
The importance and power of selection is also clear from a cybernetic principle.
Indeed, the great cyberneticist Rosh Ashby went as far as to argue that intelligence
is the power of appropriate selection. It is worth citing at length the closing words
of his Introduction to Cybernetics, where he discusses the amplification of intel-
ligence and the importance of appropriate selection (Ashby 1956, p. 272):
Now problem solving is largely, perhaps entirely, a matter of appropriate selection.
Take, for instance, any popular book of problems and puzzles. Almost every one can be
reduced to the form: out of a certain set, indicate one element. Thus of all possible
numbers of apples that John might have in his sack we are asked to find a certain one; or of
all possible pencil lines drawn through a given pattern of dots, a certain one is wanted; or
of all possible distributions of letters into a given set of spaces, a certain one is wanted. It
is, in fact, difficult to think of a problem, either playful or serious, that does not ultimately
require an appropriate selection as necessary and sufficient for its solution.
It is also clear that many of the tests used for measuring intelligence are scored
essentially according to the candidates power of appropriate selection. Thus one test
shows the child a common object and asks its name: out of all words the child must select
the proper one. Another test asks the child how it would find a ball in a field: out of all the
possible paths the child must select one of the suitable few. Thus it is not impossible that
what is commonly referred to as intellectual power may be equivalent to power of
appropriate selection. Indeed, if a talking Black Box were to show high power of
appropriate selection in such mattersso that, when given difficult problems it persis-
tently gave correct answerswe could hardly deny that it was showing the behavioral
equivalent of high intelligence.
If this is so, and as we know that power of selection can be amplified, it seems to follow
that intellectual power, like physical power, can be amplified. Let no one say that it cannot
be done, for the gene-patterns do it every time they form a brain that grows up to be
something better than the gene-pattern could have specified in detail. What is new is that
we can now do it synthetically, consciously, deliberately.
Can we draw inspiration from selection mechanisms in biology and find analogs at
a cosmological scale? Pushing the analogy to cosmology, we logically find cos-
mological natural selection, cosmological artificial selection, and cosmological
sexual selection. Such kinds of selection implicitly assume a multiverse on which
selection operates. As we already mentioned, the idea of a multiverse is contro-
versial scientifically, because it is hard if not impossible to test. For sure, these
three extensions of selection mechanisms to the cosmos are increasingly specu-
lative (as we defined three kinds of speculation at the beginning of Part III).
Cosmological natural selection is a scientific speculation aimed at explaining the
fine-tuning issue. Cosmological artificial selection is a philosophical speculation
aimed at explaining the fine-tuning issue and the meaning of life and intelligence
in the universe. Cosmological sexual selection is a fictional speculation that could
be imagined if we made some further bold assumptions. It is fictional because it
166 8 Cosmological Selections
builds on the already speculative assumptions of CNS and CAS, and further
assumes there are extraterrestrials competing to make baby universes with a
dynamic similar to sexual selection in biology! But I mention it here for three
reasons. First, it is a logical extrapolation of a fundamental selection mechanism
from biology to cosmology, and it is the purpose of this chapter to follow such a
heuristic. Second, in Chap. 9 we shall review some empirical indications that it
might be happening as you read these lines. Third, even if its plain wrong, as a
fictional speculation I hope it will inspire science fiction authors.
8.2.1 History
Smolin (2012) clearly articulated the root of the fine-tuning problem, which he
calls the landscape problem. It is simply the fact that we can imagine a huge
landscape of possible universes compatible with our physical and cosmological
models. This begs the question: Why this universe? Smolin points out that there are
two ways to explain this:
Either there are logical reasons it has to be that way, or there are historical causes, which
acted over time to bring things to the present state. When logical implication is insuffi-
cient, the explanation must be found in causal processes acting over time.
David Hume had a similar idea in 1779, when he wrote this passage in the
famous Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion (Hume 2009):
Many worlds might have been botched and bungled, throughout an eternity, ere this
system was struck out; much labour lost, many fruitless trials made; and a slow, but
continued improvement carried on during infinite ages in the art of world-making. In such
subjects, who can determine, where the truth; nay, who can conjecture where the prob-
ability lies, amidst a great number of hypotheses which may be proposed, and a still
greater which may be imagined?
Hume probably did not wish to imply that such a production of many worlds by
trial and error actually happened. By contrast, Pantin (1965, p. 94) envisioned
without detailsthat natural selection and a selection effect could explain the
cosmic coincidences leading to organic life:
If we could know that our own Universe was only one of an indefinite number with
varying properties we could perhaps invoke a solution analogous to the principle of natural
selection; that only in certain universes, which happen to include ours, are the conditions
suitable for the existence of life, and unless that condition is fulfilled there will be no
observers to note the fact.
8.2.2 Theory
(1) If a new universe is born from the center of a black hole, i.e. if the bounce of a
singularity leads to a new expanding region of spacetime,
(2) and if the values of the fundamental free parameters of physical theories can change
thereby in a small and random way, i.e. differ from those in the region in which the
black hole formed (in particular, Smolin has in mind the dimensionless parameters of
the standard model of particle physics),
(3) then this results in different reproduction rates of the physically different universes.
(4) Hence, our universe has been selected for a maximum number of black holes. It is a
descendant of a series of universes, each of which had itself been selected for the same
criterion.
(5) Thus, the values of the parameters are the way they actually are, because this set of
values leads to a (local) maximum of descendant universes.
8.2.3 Objections
The prediction that most changes in parameters would lead to fewer black holes
has been challenged. Rothman and Ellis (1993) pointed out that changing cosmic
or physics parameters may either lead to more black holes or do nothing at all, in
the case that the number of black holes is insensitive to parameter change.
The problem is that in CNS, changing parameters should lead to a decrease of the
170 8 Cosmological Selections
Table 8.1 Smolins analogy for cosmological natural selection (1997, p. 260). The situation in
modern physics is analogous to that in biology before Darwin
Biology (yesterday) Physics (nowadays)
(1) Why are the different species as they (10 ) Why are physics and cosmic parameters as they
are? are?
(2) Species are timeless (20 ) Parameters are timeless
number of black holes. This is necessary if we assume that our universe is fit in the
sense that it is a typical member of the multiverse where cosmic natural selection
takes place. Silk (1997), Rees (1997, p. 251), and Vilenkin (2006b) also proposed
ways to tweak cosmic parameters to increase the number of black holes, thereby
questioning the validity of CNS.
Smolin has replied to most of these issues in subsequent works (see especially
the appendix in Smolin 1997, 2013). Smolin (2012) also noted that there is a trade-
off to consider between primordial black holes and stellar black holes.
One might be surprised by the unconventionally speculative aspect of CNS.
Although Smolin emphasizes the refutability of CNS and thus its scientific aspect
in Smolin (2007), he is not happy that the theory involves processes outside the
universe (Smolin 1997, p. 114). This conjectural aspect of the theory puts it at the
edge of science and philosophy (Vaas 1998). Let us stress once again that when we
attempt to answer the question of why the universe is the way it is, we must be
ready to cross the border of standard experimental and observational science.
Attempting to answer this question leads to the construction of speculative theo-
ries. Thus CNS should be compared to other multiverse speculations. It should also
be put in perspective with respect to other attempts to explain the fine-tuning issue
(see Sect. 6.4). And in this respect, it is arguably the best variant among the
speculative multiverse theories. It is parsimonious because it includes both a
universe generation mechanism and a selection principle. This goes beyond a
vague statement that all other possible universe exist. Most importantly, it
provides empirical tests, such as the number of black holes observed or an upper
bound mass for neutron stars (Brown et al. 2008).
Nevertheless, the epistemological difficulties are real (see also Vaas 1998 for an
in-depth examination of CNS). Can we not find systematic ad hoc solutions to any
objection against CNS? If the tests of CNS fail, can we claim that we are simply
not yet in an optimal universe for generating the maximum number of black holes?
It seems that CNS can easily be saved with such ad hoc hypotheses.
Let us now cite five more fundamental objections against CNS, beside the
possibly suboptimal number of black holes:
(1) CNS has no environment where selection operates.
(2) CNS has no hereditary mechanism.
(3) CNS deals unsuccessfully with parameter sensitivity.
(4) CNS focuses on limited cosmic outcomes.
(5) CNS does not address broader metaphysical issues.
8.2 Cosmological Natural Selection 171
The first objection is that there is no environment where selection operates. This
is a disanalogy with the Darwinian mechanism of natural selection, where the
environment plays the critical role of selection. Smolin defined natural selection as
the selective growth of a population on a fitness landscape. The fitness is defined as
the rate of reproduction. All this is correct, but, as Vaas (1998) argues, in biology
the spread of populations is constrained by external factors that limit resources,
such as space, food (energy), and mating opportunities (sexual selection). The
problem is that there is no analog of these crucial elements in CNS. It seems that
CNS could better be described as internal selection (or self-organization) rather
than natural selection in the biological sense. We shall soon see how CNS can be
adapted to remedy this issue (Sect. 8.3).
The second objection is that CNS lacks a hereditary mechanism. Harrison
(1995) noted that CNS lacks a process that selects for reproduction only universes
that are inhabitable by organic life, in order to explain fine-tuning for life. Gardner
(2003, p. 85) also pointed out the lack of a hereditary mechanism in CNS. Why
should baby universes resemble their parents?
The third issue regards parameter sensitivity. How reliable is reproduction of
universes? If there is perfect reliability in the reproduction mechanism, there is no
evolution. If there is slight variation in a single parameter, universe reproduction
will most likely fail. This is indeed the point of existing fine-tuning arguments,
which are in fact just one-parameter sensitivity arguments. Stenger (2011), the
most vigorous critique of fine-tuning, concedes this point of parameter sensitivity.
This is why it is important to distinguish parameter sensitivity from fine-tuning.
Indeed, if almost any slight variation in the physical constants renders a universe
sterile to complex outcomes, then CNS is very likely wrong. Most small random
variations will prevent the emergence of a complex universe. The rate of new
universe production should be extremely high in order to randomly hit congenial
regions for complexity in the cosmic landscape. It remains an open question
whether the rate of black hole production and universe production would be high
enough to meaningfully explore the landscape.
The fourth issue concerns the key question fine-tuning for what?. Which
cosmic outcome is CNS busy with? At first sight, only black holes matter, because
they directly influence the number of baby universes. But which black holes sizes
are we considering? Primordial black holes? Stellar black holes? Supermassive
black holes? In the case of stellar black holes, Rothman and Ellis (1993) explicated
the connection with star formation. Since stellar black holes are usually thought to
be the remnant of a dead massive star, if we increase the number of massive stars,
we would at the same time increase the number of black holes. So, it seems that
CNS is mainly concerned with cosmic outcomes such as the formation of massive
stars and the number of black holes. But what about higher cosmic outcomes such
as life or intelligence? Do they conform or not with CNS? In fact, CNS is indif-
ferent to higher cosmic outcomes such as life or intelligence. But ignoring the
growth of complexity in the universe up to life and intelligence may prove too
narrow in scope when considering the problem of the origin and evolution of the
cosmos.
172 8 Cosmological Selections
The fifth objection is that the scope of CNS is too narrow. One can greatly vary
the scope of cosmological issues, from observational cosmology to speculative
mathematical theories or broader cosmological scenarios and metaphysical issues
(see Ellis 2007a, pp. 12451247). In addition to the restriction to low cosmic
outcomes, the scope of CNS is also too narrow from a philosophical point of view.
What about ultimate explanations? Is there a fine-tuning from generation to
generation, in the sense that each universe becomes better at producing new off-
spring? If so, did universes progressively become more and more complex? Where
did the first universe comes from? Was there a first universe at all? We saw that
these issues are distinct from fine-tuning and that all the fine-tuning explanations
we reviewed (see Sect. 6.4) are incomplete in this regard.
There is no particular meaning or role for intelligent life in CNS. In this essay,
since our primary objective is to understand life and intelligence in the universe in
a broad cosmological and philosophical way, CNS is too restrictive. We shall now
see how with cosmological artificial selection, a variation on CNS with a wider
scope, we can reply to these five objections.
8.3.1 History
Before responding to the objections to CNS (in the next subsection), let us dig
down to the historical roots of cosmological artificial selection. We saw (Sect.
8.2.1) that theorists have speculated that new universes could emerge naturally out
of singularities inside black holes. Other theorists made an even bolder step and
explored the possibility of artificially making universes. One such early study was
conducted by Fahri and Guth (1987), who pointed out, as their papers title
indicates, an obstacle to creating a universe in the laboratory. The obstacle is
that the creation of a universe in the laboratory would require an energy density far
too high with respect to what we can reach with our current technology. Others
speculated that an advanced civilization could transfer information into their baby
universe (see e.g. Cirkovic and Bostrom 2000; Garriga et al. 2000). Ansoldi and
Guendelman (2006) reviewed the literature about making child universes in the
laboratory and advocated a more active approach to cosmology. Interestingly, they
8.3 Cosmological Artificial Selection 173
If both Smolins two conjectures and mine are true, then the fine tuning of physical
constants would not stop with physics which produced stars and gas clouds which cool.
Rather, the selection would continue until physics evolved which resulted in successful
civilizations.
One year later, eminent cosmologist Harrison (1995) published in the Quarterly
Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society a remarkable paper describing in great
detail the possible influence of intelligence in Smolins CNS. Harrison was
probably unaware of Cranes paper, since he does not cite it. Instead of invoking a
meduso-anthropic principle, Harrison called the scenario a natural creation theory.
Significantly, Harrison contrasts natural with supernatural, so natural is not
opposed to artificial but includes it. Instead of a natural creation theory, it would
thus be more accurate to speak of a natural and artificial creation theory. This
inclusion was also noticed by Barrow (1998, p. 175) who proposed instead the
terminology of forced breeding or artificial selection.
Harrison clearly articulated an inspiring cosmogenic reproduction scenario. He
also addressed in his paper the main issues this picture raises. We shall come back
to the details, but his core idea was simply to combine two lines of thought: first,
the possibility of universe creation in the laboratory (Farhi and Guth 1987); and
second, Smolins cosmological natural selection hypothesis.
In January 1997, the Edge.org website published a short discussion between
Smolin and Dawkins about CNS. Dawkins commented on the fact that CNS is only
concerned with basic outcomes (Smolin et al. 1997):
Smolinian selection may account for the fact that our universe has the necessary constants,
dimensionality and laws to last for a long time (not fizzle out or crunch immediately its
initiating bang), long enough to spawn daughter universes (and INCIDENTALLY long
enough to breed life).
As we saw, the idea was suggested and developed earlier, at least by Louis
Crane and Ted Harrison. But it is remarkable that those three researchers all
independently suggested completing CNS with a role for high intelligence.
However, Dawkins perhaps vaguely realizing that he was extrapolating evolu-
tionary reasoning further than usual, ended his reply with: But this may not be
very coherent since I am suffering from flu.
In November 1998, Dick (2000), reflected on cosmotheology, or the impact
of the new worldview of cosmic evolution. He also envisaged that a natural god
could have made our universe. He writes (Dick 2000, p. 204) that such advanced
intelligence could have fine tuned the physical constants. But he did not link the
idea with Smolins CNS.
8.3 Cosmological Artificial Selection 175
Let us now see how CAS can remedy the objections we formulated against CNS,
and thus understand the value of extending CNS to CAS. We claim the following:
(1) CAS uses a virtual multiverse environment where selection operates.
(2) CAS has an intelligence-driven hereditary mechanism.
(3) CAS successfully deals with parameter sensitivity.
(4) CAS reaches high cosmic outcomes.
(5) CAS can be completed to address broader metaphysical issues.
The first remedy to CNS is to re-introduce an environment, which is a vital
component for selection to operate. The environment is here a set of virtual
universes tested and fine-tuned by a naturally very advanced intelligence. This can
in principle be arranged with artificial cosmogenesis, so that virtual universes
compete with each other. This also introduces competition (which is absent in
CNS) between artificially generated universe simulations. One can interpret this
approach as a variation on the multiverse proposal. But universe selection would
take place on virtual universes, replacing Smolins natural selection of real uni-
verses (Barrow 2001, p. 151). In CNS, we need many generations of universes in
order to randomly generate an interesting fine-tuned universe. In contrast, the
simulations would dramatically improve the process by artificially selecting (via
simulations) which universes exhibit the desired features for the next generation of
universes. This would ease the daunting task of making a new universe. In this
case, it is indeed appropriate to speak about cosmological artificial selection
(CAS) instead of cosmological natural selection. This can be achieved as a far-off
application of a mature Artificial Cosmogenesis research program. Accordingly,
we are not only talking about simulations here, but also a much greater feat, which
is the realization or the making of a new universe. Are these feats possible? We
shall discuss this objection soon (in Sect. 8.3.9).
The second remedy is to introduce intelligent life as enacting or assisting the
hereditary mechanism. The pioneer authors of CAS put forward the hypothesis that
life and intelligence could embody this mechanism of heredity, thus playing an
essential role in the Darwinian evolution of universes. To better grasp this
extension of CNS, Balz and Gardner proposed to consider von Neumanns (1951)
four components of a self-reproducing automaton. I summarize this completion of
CNS in (Table 8.2).
Let us describe these four components in more detail. Physics and cosmic
parameters are analogous to DNA in biology, and to the blueprint of this self-
reproducing automaton. The universe at large or the cell as a whole constitute the
factory. When furnished with the description of another automaton in the form of a
blueprint, the factory will construct this automaton. The reproducer reads the
blueprint and produces a second blueprint. In the cell, these are the reproduction
mechanisms of the DNA. The controller will cause the reproducer to make a new
blueprint, and cause the factory to produce the automaton described by the new
8.3 Cosmological Artificial Selection 177
blueprint. The controller separates the new construction from the factory, the
reproducer, and the controller. If this new construction is given a blueprint, it
finally forms a new independent self-reproducing automaton.
We now clearly see the limits of CNS, namely that it fails to specify what the
reproducer and controller are. Intelligence unraveling the blueprint of the universe
can precisely fulfill the reproducers function. This reproducer component is
essential to provide a mechanism for heredity. Without heredity, there can be no
Darwinian evolution. The controller in this context would be a more general
process aiming at universe reproduction with the help of intelligence. In
(Table 8.2), I add these two missing components of CNS, thus including intelli-
gence in this hypothesized cosmic reproduction process.
A consequence of this speculative theory is that intelligent life, unraveling the
universe through scientific understanding, generates a cosmic blueprint [an
expression used by Davies (1989)]. The cosmic blueprint can be seen as the set of
physics and cosmic parameters. In CAS, the fine-tuning of this cosmic blueprint
would take place in virtual universes, that is in simulated universes (Vidal
2008b, 2013).
Third, CAS successfully deals with parameter sensitivity. The solution is
simply that natural intelligences take good care of it. CNS is insensitive to
parameter sensitivity. We saw that small variations of one or several parameters
generally dont lead to fecund universes. Here is a way to distinguish CNS from
CAS. We could predict that the number of offspring universes produced in CNS
would be insufficient to make it statistically probable that random variation would
lead to an offspring universe with complex outcomes (e.g. life, intelligence, or
technology). Of course, the number of offspring universes is hard to assess given
our present knowledge of black holes and the speculative nature of universe
generation inside black holes. For example, do we consider small artificial black
holes, or stellar black holes or supermassive black holes? Could it be that rotating
black holes generate several universes?
178 8 Cosmological Selections
Fourth, CAS reaches high cosmic outcomes. Let us ask the key question: fine-
tuning for what? In both CNS and CAS, the ultimate aim of the universe is to
replicate. However, the cosmic outcomes allowing replication are different. In
CNS, it is the sheer number of black holes that matters. In CAS, it is the number of
intelligent civilizations actually making universes. Crane already noticed that fine-
tuning would concern successful advanced civilizations, and not just stars massive
enough to collapse into black holes. More precisely, in CAS the universe is fine-
tuned for recursive self-replication driven by intelligent life. The recursive aspect
is fundamental. It involves the idea of fertility or immortality of the cosmic rep-
lication process (we shall discuss this fundamental aspect later, in Sect. 10.4).
Why bother making a new universe if it will be sterile and doomed to annihilation?
The fifth point regards the respective scopes of CNS and CAS. Since CNS is
already a rather speculative theory that is difficult to test, why develop CAS, an
even more speculative one? The answer is that the scope of CAS exceeds that of
CNS.
Vaas (2012) criticized CAS on the basis that CNS is simpler than CAS.
I disagree. Since this claim is quite unexpected, I must first make an important
epistemological remark about the concept of simplicity. It is well known that
simplicity is very hard to define, and specialists consider it to be either subjective
(Heylighen 1997a), or largely dependent on context (Kuhn 1977; McMullin 2008).
So we need to explicate the cosmological context at play here, or the scope of the
inquiry, as Ellis (2007a, p. 1245) already suggested. The scope we discuss here
concerns four fundamental issues:
(1) Why do the laws of physics, constants and boundary conditions have the
form they do?
As we saw in detail in Chap. 6, this concerns the fine-tuning issue.
(2) Why not nothing?
This is certainly one of the deepest metaphysical questions. The formulation
here is a shorter version proposed by Apostel (1999) of Leibniz question
why is there something rather than nothing?. We saw that it is an
unavoidable metaphysical challenge (see Sect. 4.1.2).
(3) What is the meaning of the existence of intelligent life in the universe?
This question asks about the meaning of intelligence in the universe. Here,
meaning is interpreted as purpose or significance. Are life and intelli-
gence merely epiphenomena in cosmic evolution? Or could their presence
have deeper and yet to be discovered implications? As Davies (1999, p. 246)
formulates it, why did the laws of the universe engineer their own
comprehension?
(4) How can intelligent life survive indefinitely?
The future of the universe is gloomy. Physical eschatology teaches us that
none of the known scenarios seem to allow indefinite continuation of life and
information processing in the very long term (Vaas 2006).
8.3 Cosmological Artificial Selection 179
These four questions are more philosophical than scientific. Another way to put
this is to see CNS as a scientific speculation, tackling question (1), whereas CAS is
a philosophical speculation, tackling questions (1), (3), and (4). Question (2) has a
special status, because it is metaphysical, and both CNS and CASindeed any
ultimate explanationhas to deal with it.
To put this point otherwise, recall that in this inquiry we have reformulated and
focused the philosophical worldview questions into mixed philosophical and
cosmological questions. Arguing in favor of CAS is best seen as an exercise in
synthetic philosophy, i.e. the construction of a worldview answering consistently
and comprehensively the worldview questions. I translated the issue of the
beginning of the universe into free parameters and fine-tuning (1). Regarding the
end of the universe, I focused on the future of scientific simulations, and the
predictable end of the universe in cosmic doom (4). Combining the answers should
provide a synthetic worldview giving a meaning of life (3).
Looking at question (1) alone, CAS is not a simple explanation at all, and CNS
seems much better. However, CAS is ultimately concerned with three (or all four)
questions together. Broadening the context is often necessary to solve complex and
difficult problems. I insisted strenuously in my papers (Vidal 2008b, 2010a, 2012a)
that CAS should above all be seen a speculative philosophical scenario, precisely
because of its more philosophically ambitious and comprehensive scope than CNS.
In one sentence, CAS is a speculative philosophical scenario to understand the
origin and future of the universe, including a role for intelligent life.
Now, as Vaas notices, since CAS is a close relative of CNS, it might also have
scientific aspects. However, they are quite difficult to define and assess. Still,
indirectly, the line of thinking behind CAS and universe making will give us
precious clues to look for advanced extraterrestrials (see Chap. 9). Interestingly,
the cosmic evolution equation can help to frame research agendas to test CAS. For
example, we discussed the CEE in the context of studying how finely tuned our
universe is. But in the context of CAS, if the outcome is to artificially make a new
universe, the CEE can be used in a different manner. We can reduce the parameter
space of possible universes by focusing on universes it is possible to make from
our universe. The space of possibilities may thus be reduced not only by the
physical constraints of new universe formation (as in CNS or other multiverse
models), but also by the limits of cosmic engineering capabilities of cosmic
intelligence(s). What are these limits? What are the different levels of universe
making we can foresee?
CAS raises the question: Did our universe originate out of some kind of natural
intelligence? If so, what is the level of influence of the previous intelligence?
Could there be a kind of upbringing of baby universes? This is highly doubtful.
Indeed, transmission of information between universes is unlikely. By analogy
180 8 Cosmological Selections
I start by inviting care when using such terms as creation and design. Then
I invoke a principle of rational economy to tackle fine-tuning and to compare the
competing explanations. I discuss the causal issue and propose a possible meta-
physical framework to approach the question: How did the cosmic engineers
emerge in the first place? I also discuss the thermodynamic issue in the context of
CAS. I then examine CAS epistemologically to determine whether it is part of
science or philosophy. Then I discuss whether universes can be simulated and
realized. I also discuss the motives underlying universe making, although I shall go
into more detail on this key issue in Chap. 10. I briefly discuss the idea of freedom
within CAS and argue that the scenario implies no fatalism. In the last two sub-
sections, I first draw four converging roads to CAS and then recapitulate the case
for CAS. I hope this dialectic between objections and responses will help to clarify
the scope and even beauty entailed by CAS.
First, I wish to stress forcefully that the whole CAS scenario is naturalistic, and,
as Vaas notices, is fully compatible with ontological naturalism. This is why I wish
to be careful with the term create, because it generally supposes an origin out of
nothing, whereas here we face the question of a creation out of something. The
Roman philosopher Lucretius famously said that nothing can be produced from
nothing (ex nihilo nihil fit) is a principle that not even the gods can violate. We
have already analyzed in detail (in Chap. 4) the difficulties associated with crea-
tion, more precisely with point-attractor explanations. For these reasons, instead of
the verb create, I shall use produce or make (following e.g. Davies 2008;
Gribbin 2009).
Since Vaas speaks about design when discussing CAS, well-trained scientists
will surely brandish red flags. Design is associated with intelligent design or other
bad explanations. Scientists loath the term design in explanatory contexts.
Why? Because it freezes scientific explanation. If we are confronted with some-
thing to explain, the design answer, like the god-of-the-gaps explanation, will
always work and will explain everything (or rather nothing). We discussed these
limitations when discussing classical explanations of fine-tuning (Sect. 6.4). In a
cosmological context, words like intentionality, purpose, or design are immedi-
ately associated with supernatural causes. But this need not be!
On the contrary, the intentional explanatory mechanisms involved in CAS do
not interfere at all with normal scientific explanation. Perhaps surprisingly, CAS as
a whole can be seen as an invitation to the fantastic scientific and technological
challenge of making a universe. This is why in my first papers about CAS (Vidal
2008b, 2010a) I presented CAS as happening in the future. Ultimately, pondering
the fundamental metaphysical uncertainties about the origin of it all, I think it is
more fruitful to try to contribute to shaping the future than to understanding the
past. However, the full CAS scenario is also about the origin of the universe and
the meaning of intelligent life in it. So let us take a closer look.
8.3 Cosmological Artificial Selection 183
Vaas points out that CAS tries to explain something complex with something
even more complex. This critique was also made in Byl (1996), Barrow (1998,
p. 132) and Vidal (2012c). Vaas explains:
Furthermore one might wonder whether CAS has any convincing explanatory force at all.
Because ultimately CAS tries to explain something complex (our universe) with some-
thing even more complex (cosmic engineers and engineering). But the usual explanatory
scheme is just the converse: The explanans should be simpler than the explanandum.
This is correct, but the underlying fundamental problem is that the usual
explanatory scheme does not hold when we bring a kind of ultimate theory into
play (see our detailed analysis in Sect. 4.1.1). By ultimate theory, I do not nec-
essarily mean a theory of everything (TOE), as it is sometimes called in physics,
but a general and all-encompassing scheme of explanation. The explanatory
scheme of CAS is certainly unusual, but comparing the scope of classical expla-
nations and CAS, we can argue that the explanatory force of CAS is much wider
(see also Vaas 2009, where Vaas acknowledges this broad view on CAS). We can
now distinguish three levels in the interpretation of CAS, where each level extends
its predecessor:
(i) CAS in the future
This is the scenario I have described in my papers (Vidal 2008b, 2010a). It
offers a response to cosmic doom, a promise to progress scientifically on the fine-
tuning issue, and a role for intelligent life in cosmic evolution. For what happened
in the past, positions (a)(d) are all logically possible options.
(ii) CAS in the future and in the past
This scenario chooses option (e), CAS with CAS, to tackle the origin of the
universe. This implies that our universe has been made and fine tuned to some
degree by an intelligent civilization
(iii) CAS in the future, past and a metaphysics
Since position (ii) implies further metaphysical problems, a metaphysics for
CAS is needed to avoid a shift of the fine-tuning issue, and to propose a framework
to answer such metaphysical questions as: Who created the creators? Why not
nothing? I attempt in the following lines to sketch a possible framework.
Although it is at odds with our knowledge of cosmic evolution, to avoid a shift
of the fine-tuning issue and a tower of turtles, one can suppose that the tuning of
new universes is not enhanced as the universal reproduction cycle repeats. Indeed,
if we assume a complexification between universes, we automatically shift the
fine-tuning problem. In addition, we must assume that there is no first universe.
This sounds strange, for we are inclined toward point-like cognitive attractors. We
are used to thinking in a linear way, with a beginning, a middle, and an end. But it
is possible to postulate a cyclic metaphysics (the cycle-like cognitive attractor),
where there is no beginning at all, only a cycle. To sum up, in this metaphysical
8.3 Cosmological Artificial Selection 185
But where do we find the free energy to sustain an infinite cosmological replication
cycle? I find this open question exquisitely difficult. There is indeed an essential
tension between the first law of thermodynamics (no new energy can be created)
and the second law (entropy can only increase). Taken together, the two laws
imply that if the supply of energy is finite, energy is doomed to be dissipated.
On closer analysis, one can criticize the applicability of thermodynamics on a
cosmological scale. Also, one could either try to relax the assumption of the
finiteness of energy available or to remark that a rigorous formulation of the
second law says that entropy can increase or stay the same. Regarding the first
option, although it is not logically excluded, I find it hard to believe in an infinite
supply of energy. Even with a finite supply of energy, the second option raises the
hope of stabilizing the universe thermodynamically and ceasing to raise entropy.
But then it is not clear if something like life, which needs an energy gradient, could
still subsist in an active state (see Sect. 10.4.5 for a discussion and a short critique
of such a scenario using the concept of reversible computation).
However, there is another way out. It is to assume that the densities involved in
making a universe are so high that no thermodynamic information is retained in
the process. Each new universe makes a fresh thermodynamic start. We already
saw that Misner, Thorne, Wheeler, and Davies pointed at such a possibility (see
Sect. 4.3.3).
Can universes be simulated and instantiated? Vaas asks whether CAS can be
realized. The two underlying questions are:
(a) Can a universe be simulated?
(b) Can a universe be instantiated?
Those two questions underlie major challenges, and efforts to answer them are
still in their infancy. The field of artificial cosmogenesis (ACosm) is intended to
tackle those challenges explicitly. As in artificial life (ALife), ACosm can be
divided into two efforts, soft ACosm and hard ACosm. But it is clear that the analog
of soft ALife (universe simulation) is only in its infancy, and the analog of strong
or wet ALife (universe realization) lies in the far future.
Soft ACosm consists in making computer simulations of other possible uni-
verses and is therefore busy with question (a). Indeed, as we saw, cosmologists
have already started to simulate and model other possible universes (see Sect. 6.3).
Performing simulations for this purpose does not require one to simulate every
detail. A simplified simulation aimed at understanding the general principles of
cosmogenesis suffices. It is useful here to remember the metaphor of artificial
selection in biology, where the breeder does not need to understand all the bio-
logical processes involved. Knowing how to foster some traits over others is
enough.
188 8 Cosmological Selections
The question of motivation naturally arises when considering CAS. Why would
intelligent life want to make a new offspring universe? Gardner (2003, p. 224)
argued that a high intelligence would produce a new universe out of altruistic
8.3 Cosmological Artificial Selection 189
motives. I agree, but I think an accomplished cosmic wisdom would transcend the
selfish-versus-altruistic dichotomy. It would identify with the whole of space-time-
energy, rather as we sometimes wonder with awe that we are stardust. We shall
come back to such wisdom in Chap. 10.
Harrison (1995, p. 200) suggested three motives. First, they may simply want to
prove the theory correct and the technology adequate. This may be a necessary
motive, but it is surely insufficient to engage in the great enterprise of universe
making. Second, they may wish to make universes even more hospitable to
intelligent life than their own. This may motivate an intelligent civilization. But we
should keep in mind that it leads to a shift of the fine-tuning issue to previous
universes. And let us remember that explaining the fine-tuning issue is the main
reason we are engaging in these speculations. The third motive is to inhabit the
universe created. I think this is unlikely. First, we saw that the transmission of
information would be difficult when making a universe. Again, as with Gardners
proposal of altruism, if we care enough for and identify with evolution at large,
there is no need to inhabit the new universe. It would resemble the motivation
some parents have toward their child: they want their offspring to be exactly like
them; in short, to inhabit them. A more mature educational paradigm would leave
more freedom to the child. Since motivation has to do with our worldviews and
values, we shall further address these questions in Chap. 10, where we deal with
ethics on a cosmological scale.
Stewart (2010, p. 401) emphasized the importance for motivating intelligent
life of taking part in a supposed cosmic developmental process. However, even if
we were certain we were in such a developmental process, this would be just one
motive for producing a new universe. Two other drivers are likely to be central.
First, as described by Stewart (2010, p. 404), the most fundamental values an
intelligent civilization evolves toward are those of affirming life and seeking
meaning. Those values are likely to be strongly connected to the idea of surviving
indefinitely, or immortality (Lifton and Olson 2004). A strong commitment to
these values would reinforce the willingness of an intelligent civilization to par-
ticipate actively in the evolutionary process. The will to immortality, which is
nothing less than the drive to stay alive, is arguably a strong motive to make a new
universe. Indeed, even if CAS is wrong, this search for infinite evolution will
continue, whatever its form. Existing speculations for achieving infinite evolution
include: simulating a universe using reversible logic gates, thus using no energy;
hibernation to achieve infinite subjective time (Dyson 1979); the speculative and
controversial Final Anthropic Principle of Barrow and Tipler (1986); and the
theological omega point theory of Tipler (1997). We shall discuss these alternative
options below (Sect. 8.3.13).
A second driver for intelligence to reproduce the universe is the growing
awareness of cosmic doom. This impending fate would arguably drive an intel-
ligent civilization to act, and make a new universe. The core problem an intelligent
civilization has to deal with in the very far future is the inevitable thermodynamic
decay of stars, solar systems, galaxies, and finally the universe itself. In the realm
of biology, the solution to aging is reproduction. Could it be that an analogous
190 8 Cosmological Selections
solution would take place at the scale of the universe? This is the proposal of CAS.
Pursuing this cosmic replication process would in principle enable the avoidance
of heat death in a particular universe (Vidal 2008b). Cosmic evolution would then
continue its course indefinitely.
Is this issue far too far in the future to be a serious preoccupation? The situation
here is analogous to global warming, except that the problem is on an even larger
scale than planetary. A few decades ago, few people were seriously concerned
with global warming. But today, individuals, organizations, and governments have
started to seriously mobilize to tackle this complex issue. What produced this
shift? Among other factors, the strong integration and globalization of societies
contributed to this sensitivity about climate change. In recent years, we have
opened up numerous and precise channels of information from every corner of the
Earth, to give us an unprecedented awareness and understanding of the planet as a
whole. This leads us to global awareness and compassion for what happens on a
planetary scale.
Similarly, a universal awareness will eventually emerge from our increasing
understanding of the cosmos. Only after such an awakening will an intelligent
civilization start to actively tackle such a cosmic challenge. If this book contrib-
utes to that awakening, it will have achieved its purpose.
CAS implies a huge responsibility for intelligent life in the cosmos. Are we
ready and willing to assume it? What if we fail? What if we self-destruct? Do we
share this responsibility with our distant cosmic cousins in extraterrestrial civili-
zations? It is worth pondering whether more advanced civilizations have already
gone this way. In fact, CAS can even give us fruitful heuristics to search for
advanced extraterrestrials (see Chap. 9).
Is there freedom in CAS? Does CAS promote fatalism? This question would
require a much longer treatment, since the idea of freedom has been debated for
centuries (see e.g. Adler 1973). But let us mention some possible responses. CAS
in its fullest form, i.e. (iii) CAS in the future, past, and a metaphysics (see
Sect. 8.3.5), includes cycles. Old worldviews are cyclic and imply that nothing
really changes. The same comes back again and again if we wait long enough for
the cycle to complete. But I would rather see CAS as supporting a progressive
evolutionary worldview than a fatalistic one. Indeed, the idea of progress in sci-
ence and technology contrasts with the idea of destiny. Science and technology
bring out radical novelties in our societies. Who predicted the Internet? Arguably
not many thinkers.
The analogy of family is more appropriate here. Imagine you are 10 years old.
Your parents ask you to sit down because they want to tell you something
important. They instruct you: My dear child, when you grow up, you will certainly
8.3 Cosmological Artificial Selection 191
find a lover and have children. Somehow disappointed, you reply: Thats all?
Your parents: Yes, it is. This is indeed a likely outcome given the configuration
of our society and our biology, but it is far from necessary. You are not fated to have
children. More importantly, your disappointment regarding the triviality of the
statement is unlikely to spoil your life. How, when, or with whom you fall in love
and what the children will be like remains full of surprisesexcept for sociologists.
Well, CAS is a comparably trivial statement at the level of the universe. It doesnt
predict a fixed fate, just a general direction.
To conclude, in contrast to what Vaas wrote, I would like to stress that CAS is far
more than a physical experiment, a simulation, or an attempt to build a rescue
universe. The response of an intelligent civilization as they awaken to cosmic doom
(heat death or another gloomy scenario) is likely to be a strong drive to make a new
universe. Therefore, CAS is neither about playing with virtual universes nor about
performing a physics experiment to see what it is like to produce a universe. The
rescue universe idea is interesting, although it would be about rescuing cosmic
evolution at large rather than preserving the memory of a particular civilization. But
to care about cosmic evolution, we need a cosmological ethics (see Chap. 10).
I chose to present CAS as a natural extension and remedy to CNS. When taking
this road we focused on our past, since CNS was initially developed to provide a
cogent answer to the free-parameters and the fine-tuning issues. But reasoning
from other starting points can also lead to CAS. Let us review three other roads. It
is almost a truism that the main goal of science is to describe nature. Yet there is a
profound truth in the above opening lines of the Tao Teh King. Every description is
an incomplete simplification of nature. So, in the limit, a full description of nature
would have to duplicate nature. But in CAS, instead of being impossible, the
tendency toward a duplication of nature translates into a tendency toward universe
making.
Fine-tuning explanations are often divided into two camps: God or Multiverse.
However, CAS challenges this dichotomy, and can be seen as articulating a third
choice: God and Multiverse (Harrison 1995, p. 199). From God, it keeps an ability
to make universeswith, as we saw (Sect. 8.3.3) six possible levels. From the
multiverse, it retains the possibility of other universes through the idea of the
virtual multiversebut not their actual existence.
Instead of God or Multiverse, the second road to CAS is thus Natural God and
Virtual Multiverse. One might think that CAS also assumes a multiverse. This is
not the case, since a real multiverse is not necessary and a virtual one is enough for
192 8 Cosmological Selections
the purpose of cosmic selection. Indeed, there might be only one universe, which
recycles itself (like a phoenix universe) if a big crunch scenario is after all favored
at the end of time. Alternatively, intelligent life might become powerful enough to
reverse the expansion of the universe. But this is far more speculative.
A third road to CAS is to follow the logic of evolutionary theory. The last
chapter of Dawkins River Out of Eden (1995) is titled The Replication Bomb.
Dawkins describes two kinds of bomb in our universe: supernovas in astrophysics
and replication in biology. He reports 10 replication thresholds that were crossed
on Earth. In summary, these are:
This perspective offers a new way to think about the cosmos, which I call the
architect point of view. It can be formulated as:
Architect Point of View: The more we are in a position to make a new universe,
the more we shall understand our own universe.
If we extrapolate the steady growth of complexity and especially the amazing
progress of science, then it may not be so difficult to imagine a stage at which
intelligent life is able to conceive and make new universes. But the question of
motivation remains. We shall see later that it can be grounded in a cosmological
ethics and especially in the idea of cosmological immortality (see Chap. 10).
What is the meaning of science in CAS? Pondering the mysteries of the cosmos,
we often marvel about the existence of life in the universe. Why are there such
complex structures as life or consciousness? Yet the most recent outcome of
complexity on Earth is not life nor consciousness. It is arguably the phenomenon
of science, which is a natural continuation of the evolution of complex intelligent
life (Turchin 1977; Campbell 1974).
Albert Einstein famously wrote that the most incomprehensible thing about
the universe is that it is comprehensible (cited in Hoffmann 1972). What he
meant is that matter self-organized up to a point where it can comprehend itself.
Through humans and science, the universe is self-comprehending. This self-ref-
erential aspect is perplexing and awe inspiring.
Scientists are by definition embedded in science. Somehow, this is quite ironic.
Indeed, if we are very scientific by giving a maximum value to objectivity (i.e.
observations independent of the particular properties of the observer), then we
forget the very fact that there are observers! Which is itself a fundamental mys-
tery. This is why I presented CAS as a philosophical theory and not as a scientific
one. In CAS, we are involved, and so are conjectured extraterrestrials too (see
Chap. 9). This is another reason why it is so important to search and try to find
them. Our cosmic vision remains too limited if we have only one example of the
emergence of life. Obviously, it is difficult and scientifically dubious to extrapolate
any general trend from one example.
What is the meaning of science in a cosmological perspective? Why did the
cosmos generate structure capable not only of understanding itself (in self-con-
sciousness) but also of understanding and controlling its surroundings in an ever
more developed and precise manner? What is the most complex model we can
imagine, and which activity can provide it? We saw that it is a model of the whole
universe, assisted by computer simulations. As we extrapolate the phenomenon of
science into the far future, we approach knowledge of the entire universe. CAS
hypothesizes that this knowledge, coupled with activities in soft and hard Artificial
Cosmogenesis will provide all the ingredients for future universe making.
One can now throw new light on the fact that cosmic evolution gave rise to
scientific activity. In CAS, the increasing modeling abilities of intelligent beings is
not an accident but an indispensable feature of our universe, to ensure new off-
spring universes. In CAS, scientific activity does not seek an ultimate explanation
194 8 Cosmological Selections
but a pragmatic solution to a real problem: lurking cosmic doom. The quest for an
ultimate explanation is no longer a quest for disinterested and absolute knowledge.
Knowledge is useful, and nearly complete knowledge about our universe should at
some point be useful.
In future, science will no longer be merely a search for understanding of the
world; in the long run, it will tend to become a simulation or computation of the
world. In the far future, such a simulation could be concretely implemented to
make a new universe. CAS offers a fresh perspective for pondering the big
questions Pagels (1986, p. 379) raised:
Is it possible that life, or whatever it may become, can alter the program of the cosmic
computer, changing the course of its destiny? It will take more than a metaphor to answer
that important question; it will take a far deeper understanding of life and the cosmos than
we currently possess. Yet the desire to know the answer to such questions about our
destiny will never go away. And that desire is perhaps the profoundest program in our
cosmic computer so far.
We saw in Part I that the merit of a worldview can only be judged relative to
others. We now aim to show that CAS is, relative to other theories, the best
solution to make sense of the beginning, the end, and the meaning of life in the
universe.
Inquiring into the mysteries of our universe is like pursuing a difficult criminal
investigation. You have few clues, but you need to build a consistent story to make
sense of seemingly disparate pieces of a puzzle. Sherlock Holmes is of course
expert in investigations, and his rule above stimulates us to compare CAS with
other theories.
Since we argued that CAS is above all a philosophical theory and not a sci-
entific one, we can use the criteria and conceptual tools we developed in Part I. Let
us explicate the metaphilosophical criteria we use. First, we consider a wide scope
in agenda, looking for a framework to understand in a consistent manner the
origin, the future, and the meaning of life. In other words, from a philosophical
point of view, we want to show that CAS is at present the best attempt to answer
three questions at the same time: Where does it all come from? Where are we
going? What is the meaning of life in a cosmological perspective?. Since our
work is cosmological, our scope in time and space is also maximally large. And we
are strongly committed to the scientific method and the values of objectivity, and
thus we do not assume any kind of supernatural forces.
The value judgment behind the word best must of course be read in the
context of worldview construction, and it depends on criteria. The word best is
8.3 Cosmological Artificial Selection 195
Table 8.4 Candidate explanations for the origin and future of the universe
Question Origin Future Meaning Metaphysics
Explanation
Skepticism
Necessity Unexplained
Fecundity Explains fine-
tuning, not the
causal issue
Chance of the gaps No causal
explanation
WAP of the gaps No causal
explanation
CNS Natural selection Baby universe Cyclical or
generation branching?
(unspecified)
Hibernation Infinite
(Dyson) subjective
time
Reversible Infinite future
computation information
processing
God of the gaps Point explanation Spiritual Religious values Theological
immortality
Omega point God Computational Religiously Cyclical
theory (Tipler) resurrection inspired
CAS Artificial selection Universe making Fundamental role Life cycle
and of intelligence
cosmological in a cosmic
immortality replication
cycle
The last two columns show the associated meaning of life and metaphysics
thus relative to the choice of criteria we discussed in Chap. 2 and the weighted
choice of criteria I explicate in Appendix I.
A classic example of conflicting criteria is found in the God or Multiverse
debate. For example, Rees (see e.g. his 1997 book) argues that a multiverse is
more rational, while Leslie (1989) argues that postulating a God is more eco-
nomical. Who is right? What should we value more? Rationality or economy? The
core of the disagreement lies in our cognitive values. Are we ready to assume the
actual existence of a huge and possibly infinite number of universes? This is a
natural explanation, but rather extravagant. Or do we prefer to assume a single
almighty God at the origin of the universe? This seems indeed more economical,
but at the price of a supernatural explanation, which is a price most scientists are
not willing to pay. My position was to dismiss both explanations when I called
them God of the gaps and WAP of the gaps (see Sect. 6.4). Table 8.4 pro-
vides a panoptic view of fine-tuning explanations and their broader implications
for the future, the meaning of life, and the associated metaphysics.
196 8 Cosmological Selections
What is striking in Table 8.4 is that few explanations have a scope large enough
to touch upon all the questions. In fact, there are only three: God, Tiplers omega
point theory, and CAS.
The line for skepticism is empty and this reminds us that it is a second-order
knowledge attitude and not an attempt to answer our big questions. I value
skepticism highly as a second-order knowledge attitude, but it is good to remember
that it is silent if we want to take a first-order position on the big questions.
The explanations via necessity, fecundity, chance of the gaps, and WAP of the
gaps are concerned only with the origin and do not aim to cope with a greater
scope. We saw that the possible meaning of life and intelligence in the universe is
not within the scope of cosmological natural selection.
There are two promising options for life to continue in the far future. The first
option is hibernation and was articulated in a landmark article about the future of
civilization by Dyson (1979). Dyson shows that even assuming a finite supply of
energy, it would be possible for a civilization to live forever. The scenario pro-
poses that a civilization metabolizes intermittently by alternating cycles of activity
and hibernation. Despite the finite nature of the energy source, by hibernating
longer and longer, and thus using less and less energy, a civilization would be able,
in the limit, to live for as long as it wants in its subjective time. Of course, life is
defined here not in terms of DNA and biochemistry, but as a more general
information processing capability.
However, this scenario does not work if the universe continues its accelerated
expansion (Dyson 2004, p. 15). A very stimulating debate arose between Dyson
and Krauss and Starkman (2000). In their 2000 article Life, the universe, and
nothing: life and death in an ever-expanding universe, Krauss and Starkman
criticized Dysons proposal and showed that eternal life in our universe is
impossible. In response, Dyson showed that the core argument can be maintained
if we replace digital computers by analog ones (see Dyson 2007).
The second option of reversible computation is a highly promising way for a
civilization to endure forever. Landauer (1961) proved the theoretical possibility
of logic gates that consume no energy. Given a computer built out of such gates, a
possible solution to the problem of an ever-expanding and slowly dying universe
would be to simulate a new universe on a collection of matter that would forever
float into emptier and emptier space. Krauss and Starkman, although recognizing
the theoretical possibility of this scenario, criticized it. They argued that no finite
system can perform an infinite number of computations with finite energy if it is
to host evolved information processing. Why not? The main reason is that
reversible computation is not possible for the operation of erasure. Deleting
information has a thermodynamic cost, and the authors argue that consciousness or
sophisticated information processing will certainly need to erase information (see
also Zenil 2012). Note that these two options of hibernation and reversible com-
putation remain neutral on issues regarding the origin, the meaning of life, or a
metaphysics.
The explanation offered by God is satisfying from a worldview construction
perspective. But it is unsatisfying if we aim at a naturalistic philosophical
8.3 Cosmological Artificial Selection 197
worldview and not a theological one. Of course, there is still the issue of God as
filling our knowledge gaps, but this can be tempered with appropriate theological
interpretations. As a side remark, the God explanation induces a metaphysical
asymmetry. It is a point-like attractor for the origin but supposes immortality in the
future, which is more like an infinite line of continuation. Why not immortality in
the past? And why not a point in the future?
Our reasoning about the origin of the origins in Chap. 4 largely holds for
extrapolations into the future. It is thus not surprising to find the idea of a
point-attractor in the future. Such a future ultimate point, the omega point, was
famously and beautifully articulated by the Jesuit paleontologist Pierre Teilhard de
Chardin in his posthumous book The Phenomenon of Man (1959). The vision of
evolution Teilhard proposes is remarkably inspiring. Teilhard is arguably one of
the very rare thinkers who foresaw the emergence of the Internet, when he
introduced the noosphere, an evolutionary stage of development dominated by
information processes on a global scale. This evolutionary vision was further
elaborated into the concept of the global brain (see Heylighen 2011 for a historical
review).
In a very controversial book, Tipler (1997) revived Teilhards vision of the
omega point and articulated a theological vision using modern cosmology and
computer science. His book is titled The Physics of Immortality: Modern Cos-
mology, God and the Resurrection of the Dead and clearly has a theological
agenda. This was further confirmed by Tiplers subsequent book The Physics of
Christianity (2007). His book on the physics of immortality has quite some value
from a synthetic worldview perspective. It is highly ambitious and speculative, in
order to solve not philosophical questions but theological ones. The problem is that
he presents his work as a piece of science, whereas it is not. His use and abuse of
reductio ad absurdum and general scientific logic is either wrong or very doubtful.
In his book review, Ellis (1994) called Tiplers book a masterpiece of
pseudoscience.
What worries me even more is a total and constant confusion of genres. One
need only read the opening words of the preface, where Tipler asserts that the-
ology is a branch of physics, that physicists can infer by calculation the existence
of God and the likelihood of the resurrection of the dead to eternal life in exactly
the same way as physicists calculate the properties of the electron. That shows
the confusion between theology and science. A few pages later he affirms that
reductionism is true. This is hard to swallow for any philosopher who has
worked for more than half an hour in epistemology.
I see Tiplers essay as remarkable modern theology, nave philosophizing, and
unsound science. It is remarkable theologically because Tipler tries to rescue
traditional doctrines of Christianity in a modern cosmological and computational
framework. And if you have faith in the arguments, it might even be inspiring. But
I am sure many theologians would still disagree with Tiplers approach.
Despite these criticisms, there are some interesting and provocative ideas in the
book, provided that we exorcize Tiplers work from its theological inclinations.
Deutsch (1997, Chap. 14) reconstructed the core of Tiplers argument and
198 8 Cosmological Selections
In sum, if we hold on to the scope in agenda, the criterion of naturalism, and the
wide scope in time and space, there is no theory that compares to CAS. The closest
attempt is arguably Tiplers omega point theory, albeit it is more focused on the
future than on the past, and is largely theologically inspired.
I fail to see evidence for a God, a fundamental theory, or a real proof of the
multiverse. Yet I see overwhelming evidence of our super-exponentially growing
use of computing resources such as memory storage, computational power, and
bandwidth (Nagy et al. 2011). These advances have a tremendous impact on our
lives and societies, and this is only the beginning. In particular, computers are
more and more ubiquitous in scientific activities, for example in mathematics (to
assist in proofs), in studying complex systems (by simulating them), in biology
(e.g. with biotechnologies using databases of genomes or protein networks), in
cosmology (with many projects to run large-scale simulations of the universe) and
of course with ALife and its legitimate successor, ACosm. If we choose to pursue
and manage to conduct soft and hard ACosm, scenario (i), CAS in the future,
would be realized. This would then give us strong indications and inspirations to
think that the broader interpretations of CAS in scenarios (ii) or (iii) are accurate.
Can the general perspective of CAS help in the search for extraterrestrials?
Could it be that extraterrestrial intelligence is on its way to black hole manipu-
lation and universe making? How can we further explore this speculative possi-
bility? Can we find more general reasons for taking this path, and confront the
reasoning with observations? Let us now scrutinize these issues by searching for
advanced extraterrestrials. I mean really advanced.
Chapter 9
High Energy Astrobiology
Abstract This chapter proposes a new concrete hypothesis to search for and assess
the existence of advanced extraterrestrial life. We first point out two methodo-
logical fallacies that we call naturality of the gaps and artificiality of the gaps and
propose a more balanced astrobiological stance. We point out many limiting and
implicit assumptions in SETI, in order to propose a Zen SETI that opens up the
search space. In particular, we outline the case for postbiological evolution, or the
probable transition from a biological paradigm to a nonbiological paradigm. We
then discuss criteria to distinguish natural from artificial phenomena. We start with
global criteria (strangeness heuristic, non-exclusiveness heuristic, equilibrium
heuristic, and inverse distance-development principle); go on to thermodynamic
criteria (thermodynamic disequilibrium and energy flow control); and finally
present living systems criteria (Millers 19 critical functional subsystems). Then we
introduce a two-dimensional metric for civilizational development, using the
Kardashev scale of energy consumption increase and the Barrow scale of inward
manipulation. To support Barrows scale limit, we present energetic, societal,
scientific, computational, and philosophical arguments that black holes are attrac-
tors for intelligence. Taken together, these two civilizational development trends
lead to an argument that some existing binary stars may actually be advanced
extraterrestrial beings. Since those putative beings actively feed on stars, we call
them starivores. We elaborate another independent thermodynamic argument for
their existence, with a metabolic interpretation of some binary stars in accretion.
We further substantiate the hypothesis with a tentative living systems interpreta-
tion. Ten critical living subsystems are suggested to apply to interacting binaries
composed of a primary white dwarf, neutron star, or black hole. We critically
discuss the hypothesis by formulating and replying to ten objections. The question
of artificiality remains open, but I propose concrete research proposals and a prize
to continue and further motivate the scientific assessment of this hypothesis.
C. Vidal, The Beginning and the End, The Frontiers Collection, 201
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1_9, Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014
202 9 High Energy Astrobiology
What are the general outcomes of the increase of complexity in the universe? We
have only one such example: life on Earth. Unfortunately, we cannot carry out a
scientific investigation with only one object of study. Therefore, in order to know
more about the ability of the cosmos to generate complexity and intelligence many
times and in different circumstances, it is crucial to know whether or not we are
alone. It is also very important for evolutionary and theoretical biology to assess how
far evolution is convergent is or whether the origin of life was a unique cosmic event.
Dick (2000, p. 196) summarized stages in cosmological worldview develop-
ment from geocentrism, heliocentrism, and galactocentrism to biocentrism.1 We
add two worldview stages, intellicentrism and univercentrism. Three centrisms
have been refuted scientifically: geocentrism, heliocentrism, and galactocentrism.
It is not my aim to rehash the debate between geocentrism and heliocentrism
featuring Ptolemy and Copernicus, or the discovery by Shapley that our solar
system is not at the center of our galaxy, or that our galaxy is just one among many
others. I invite the reader to consult the relevant literature in the history and
philosophy of science. These were episodes of great scientific advance, but it is
good to remember that those changes in worldview did not happen overnight.
Although Copernicus astronomical techniques were quickly appreciated by his
peers, it took decades for his heliocentric worldview to be taken seriously (Kuhn
1957). The reasons for such resistance are not only scientific but also psycho-
logical, philosophical, and religious. It is hard to shake a world where the Earth
had always been considered the center of the universe.
The same holds for astrobiology. It will not be easy to reach a quick consensus
on what constitutes proof of extraterrestrial life. What is likely to happen is that we
find we can model some intriguing phenomena both from an astrophysical per-
spective and from an astrobiological perspective. As with the Copernican refuta-
tion of geocentrism, refuting biocentrism or intellicentrism will have a huge
philosophical and religious impact. In the case of intellicentrism, we would not be
the only intelligent species in the universe, let alone the most intelligent.
There is certainly still work to do to pursue the broad Copernican revolution
because biocentrism, intellicentrism, and univercentrism still prevail today. We
still lack definitive proof that life exists elsewhere in the universe, that intelligent
life exists elsewhere, or that other universes exist. Let us say a few words about
those three major challenges.
Biocentrism continues to hold in the sense that, even if most scientists believe
the existence of extraterrestrial life is highly probable, we still havent proved it. In
recent years, discoveries of exoplanets have grown exponentially, so there is
plenty of hope that one of the rocky Earth-like planets will harbor life.
Intellicentrism sill holds, since, obviously, we havent discovered intelligent
life either. However, it is important to distinguish the two, not only because of the
1
Dick calls biocentrism the extraterrestrial/biophysical worldview. It asserts simply that life
on Earth is unique in the universe, and is not the view or belief that the rights and needs of
humans are no more important than those of other living things.
9 High Energy Astrobiology 203
very different impact of refuting either one or the other but also because the search
methods are different. In the search for life on exoplanets, we look for signatures of
a biosphere. But the main method in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence
(SETI) is to search for traces of an intelligent communication signal in the elec-
tromagnetic spectrum. If biocentrism is refuted, that is, if we find a primitive
extraterrestrial life form, we can still hold to intellicentrism and be proud to be the
only and most intelligent species in the universe. The psychological and philo-
sophical consequences of refuting intellicentrism are much more radical and dis-
ruptive than those of refuting biocentrism. Finding an extraterrestrial bacterium is
very different from finding advanced civilizations 2 billion years older than us.
Universecentrism holds today in the sense that we lack proof that our universe
is one of many. We have seen examples of multiverse theories (in Sect. 5.3), and it
is a fact that many modern cosmologists are open-minded about the existence of
multiple universes. But, as with biocentrism, being subjectively open-minded
about the multiverse is not the same as having objective proof. We lack empirical
evidence of eternal inflation or of cosmological natural selection. In the multiverse
theory of conformal cyclical cosmology, Penrose (2011) proposed to look for
subtle irregularities in the cosmic microwave background to find traces of a pre-
vious universal cycle. This is one of the rare proposals for testing a multiverse
theory, but the attempt remains preliminary. If we follow the theory of cosmo-
logical artificial selection (Chap. 8), proof that artificial universes can be or have
been made would also refute univercentrism. In fact such a search for extra--
universal intelligence (SEUI) has already been hinted at (see e.g. Pagels 1989, pp.
155156; Gardner 2003; Dick 2008). Another speculative way to refute univer-
centrism is to find a way to access other universes.
In any case, refuting biocentrism, intellicentrism, and univercentrism requires
ever more speculation. This makes them increasingly difficult to refute.
But let us focus on our universe. We can summarize ten main possible detection
scenarios with a level-attitude matrix (see Fig. 9.1).
In the figure, the outlier point alone should not be forgotten because we could
truly be alone in the universe. It is important to remember too that the level
dimension implicitly assumes that all life in the universe follows a similar
developmental path. But if life starts, adapts, and specializes to very different
environments, it might be very hard or impossible to compare two biospheres. For
example, even on Earth it is not easy to argue whether a shark or a bird is
superior. They are both very well adapted to water or to air. But lets assume we
can find some kind of universal metric to assess the level of life or civilizational
development. Extraterrestrials may be found to be inferior, equal, or superior to
us. Their attitude towards us can be competitive, neutral, or collaborative.
What is the most interesting prospect for humanity? Is it to find extraterrestrial
bacterial life or to discover a civilization with immense technology, know-how,
wisdom, and science? In what follows, I focus on superior extraterrestrial intel-
ligence (ETI) and do not speculate much about their attitude toward us. Focusing
on this search strategy is especially interesting because, if successful, it would kill
a bird (biocentrism) and a shark (intellicentrism) with one stone.
204 9 High Energy Astrobiology
Youve read correctly, ETIs could maximally be 7.5 billion years our senior!
More fine-grained estimates by Lineweaver and collaborators (Lineweaver 2001;
Lineweaver et al. 2004) show that Earth-like planets on other stars are on average
1.8 0.9 billion years older than the Earth. Indeed, they show that 75 % of stars
suitable for life are older than the Sun. Furthermore, Bradbury et al. (2011, p. 161)
have a good point when they add that since the set of intelligent societies is likely
to be dominated by a small number of oldest and most advanced members [], we
are likely to encounter a civilization actually more ancient than 1.8 Gyr (and
probably significantly more).
9 High Energy Astrobiology 205
Davies shared this point of view when he wrote (Davies 2010, p. 124) that the
universe is a rich and complex arena in which signs of alien intelligence might be
buried amid a welter of data from natural processes, and unearthed only after some
ingenious sifting. I shall attempt such sifting in this chapter. Of course, the idea
that ETI is already in our data might seem premature. We have not explored all
possible ways to see the universe. For example, we have not yet explored the
spectra of neutrino radiation or gravitational waves. We might detect intelligent
activity only in such spectra.
But humanity is not ignorant about the cosmos either. We have explored and
are exploring the universe well beyond the visible. In fact we investigate the whole
electromagnetic spectrum: radio waves, microwaves, infrared light, visible light,
ultraviolet, X-rays, and gamma rays. These new ways to observe the cosmos have
led to amazing progress in astrophysics. Even though the cosmos is huge and very
varied, we see and study many kinds of stars, white dwarfs, neutron stars, pulsars,
black holes, interstellar clouds, clusters of stars, planets, galaxies, and clusters of
galaxies in all wavelengths. If extraterrestrials are not particularly small or dis-
crete, they may be observableor we may have already observed them in the form
of natural processes.
206 9 High Energy Astrobiology
This equation has inspired much of our understanding of cosmic evolution and
helped us to frame agendas for SETI. Extended and generalized to the cosmic evolution
equation (CEE), it also was very helpful to frame new research agendas in cosmology
(see Sect. 6.3). The Drake equation is a tool to assess the number of communicative
civilizations which might exist in our galaxy (my emphasis). Inspiring and helpful it
has been, it has also introduced two fundamental biases in SETI.
First, it focuses on communication. This is the orthodox way of searching for
messages coming from an ETI. This program has failed so far. One may advance
many good reasons for this failure, but the bottom line is that we do not need to
assume communication to conduct astrobiology. The equation introduces a second
bias by focusing on our galaxy only. By endorsing the Drake equation agenda too
uncritically, we have studied one object, our galaxy, out of the 170 billion
(1.7 9 1011) galaxies estimated to shine in the observable universe (see e.g. Gott
et al. 2005). For more criticism of this limiting focus on our own galaxy, see also
(Cirkovic and Bradbury 2006; Vidal 2011; Bradbury et al. 2011). The good news
is that if we extend the Drake equation to the whole universe, then our detection
chances increase. More precisely, looking at more and more remote galaxies is like
traveling through time, so it constitutes an opportunity to test wide-ranging sce-
narios for civilizational development at different periods (Kardashev 1997).
Those two biases have shifted the fundamental question in SETI from (1) Are
we alone? to (2) Who wants to chat in the galaxy?. Of course, it would be
much more enriching and fun to communicate or to have direct contact with ETIs.
Accordingly, starting SETI in our own galaxy is also the first logical and practical
step to take. But if we really wish to find out whether we are alone or not (1), we
need to extend our search strategies.
It is almost impossible to give a meaningful answer to the question Who are
you? without knowing and comparing yourself with other human beings. Simi-
larly, when we ask Who are we?, where we refers to the human species, or
9 High Energy Astrobiology 207
In response to the assertions quoted above, I make the following statement: I fully
disagree with Shklovskii, Dyson, and Sagan here and hold that every strange
phenomenon must be assumed natural or artificial unless proven otherwise.
During the first international SETI conference at Byurakan in Armenia, Shk-
lovskii (1971) advocated a carefully reasoned search for extraterrestrials, but he
may well have handcuffed the endeavor (see Rubtsov 1991). He advocated what I
call the naturality-of-the-gaps principle:
Naturality of the gaps: Unless proven otherwise, assume phenomena to be of
natural origin.
If by natural we mean respecting physical laws, then everything we observe,
living or nonliving, will be natural. So the principle is trivially true. By definition,
all systems in nature follow physical laws. In particular, every ETI must respect
the laws of physics. The principle is in fact utterly useless for SETI, since living
systems, like any other object in the universe, are subject to physical laws like
gravitation and thermodynamics. Working under this principle is equivalent to
searching for magic.
What Shklovskii and Sagan had in mind was of course something else. They
were warning against the fallacy of seeing extraterrestrials when facing an
unknown phenomenon. One should not quickly qualify a phenomenon as artificial
without having first exhausted all the possible natural explanations. But are we
really ever going to exhaust all the possible natural explanations? As Almar wrote,
while the principle is scientifically logical, it did not turn out to be constructive
because one can never determine the moment when all natural explanations have
been exhausted (Heidmann and Klein 1991, p. 393).
Even more difficult is the question: In which circumstances will we give up
modeling the phenomenon as natural, and conclude that it must be artificial? If we
consider the analogy with the debate between geocentrism and heliocentrism, the
principle would be equivalent to saying unless proven otherwise, assume the Earth
is the center of the universe. Today, who would dare to say this is a scientifically
constructive principle? For fruitful scientific development, the history of science has
taught us that we had better be open-minded in allowing a wide variety of models to
explain a given phenomenon, to allow them to coexist, and to rely on objective
9.1 Criteria for Artificiality 209
criteria to decide which model or theory to endorse. As Rubtsov (1991, p. 307) said
in the context of searching for extraterrestrial astroengineering structures:
In reality a normal astronomical investigation will never need an artificial(A-)
approach to its object of study. Any refuted hypothesis will be replaced only with a new
natural (N-) one. On the contrary, searches for astroengineering structures require the
equal status of A- and N- explanations from the very beginning of the investigation. When
studying an object or phenomenon selected by some preliminary criteria, one should bear
in mind both of these hypotheses. [] A- and natural N- [research] programs should
develop, interact and enrich each other, seeking, on the one hand, for the most complete
representation of the object of phenomenon in its description and, on the other hand, for
the best possible conformity between the description and a theoretical explanation of the
phenomenon. During this process, one of the two explanations will be gradually super-
seded by the other, and a correct explanation will result.
Thats enough for logic. What about practice? How can we recognize ETI? For
a meaningful discussion of whether known phenomena are natural or artificial, we
need criteria to distinguish them correctly. Where are we to find these criteria? We
can take them from our best, most universal, most context-independent theories.
These are first and foremost physical laws and systems theory. Since we are
interested in extraterrestrial life and intelligence, we can restrict the scope of
systems theory to a subset of it, living systems theory.
On closer inspection, the very distinction between natural and artificial might
well be artificial (see e.g. Davies 2010)! Could it be that the difference between
natural and artificial phenomena is really a continuous transition? Or should we
instead look for criteria distinguishing simple from complex processes? If so, what
kind of continuous criteria can we define? One thing is certain: we need to avoid
the sin of Earth-centrism and start the search with an absolute minimum of
assumptions. So let us waive a maximum of our prejudices and enter the temple of
Zen SETI.
There are two moments when we start to think about what Cirkovic (2012) calls
the astrobiological landscape. The first is when we use divergent thinking and
brainstorm about all the possible ways and places ETIs could thrive. The list may
become very long. This is an essential step to avoid a premature restriction of the
search space. As we extend the possible, the exercise can become speculative and
even fun. Such entertainment is actually the job of hard science fiction authors
when they develop weird yet scientifically plausible scenarios. But it is not sci-
ence. So, how do we make the second step and shift from science fiction to
science? How would you put your speculations onto a scientific track? If you were
given 5,000,000 Euro to lead a search for extraterrestrials, where would you start?
This practical constraint forces us to restrict the search space, or at least prioritize
what we want to look at first. This is a critical step, prone to many biases. In his
book The Inner Limits of Outer Space (1989), psychologist John C. Baird criti-
cized assumptions behind the SETI enterprise by saying they are as much a
function of the principles of human psychology as they are of engineering and
physics.
To make SETI scientific, the key is to connect speculations with what we can
observe. For this reason, Dyson (1966) advocated a focus on the most conspicuous
manifestations of intelligence and technology, so that we have something big to
observe. If we assume that ETIs are operating at a quantum scale using very little
energy, so as to leave virtually no trace, we would neither be able to search for
them nor find them, even if they were thriving here on Earth. Such ideas and many
others are quite credible, but if there is no hope of testing them they should remain
in the province of science fiction. However, if we say that an ETI uses the energy
212 9 High Energy Astrobiology
of stars in some particular way, and that stars should be modified in that way as a
result of this interaction, there is more hope for testability.
In his seminal paper, Dyson (1966, p. 643) assumed that ETIs would use
technology we can understand. He qualified his assumption as totally unrealis-
tic. I do agree. If we look only for technology we understand, we restrict our
search to civilizations roughly at our developmental level, not really higher. The
search for ETI more advanced than us is bound to fail. If we relax this rule, it will
be hard, if not impossible, to argue that a phenomenon we do not understand is
artificial, since its technology will, by definition, be alien to us. This is why we
absolutely need criteria that depend minimally on our known technology.
Davies (2010) advocated a renewal of search strategies and called for a New
SETI. Bradbury et al. (2011) also called for a New SETI, which they called
Dysonian SETI. They summarized the salient differences in a Table 9.2.
It is important to emphasize that orthodox SETI and Dysonian SETI are not
opposed. Accordingly, Dysonian SETI criticizes orthodox SETI, but does not
dismiss it. This approach simply extends the number of search targets. In what
follows, I take such a Dysonian approach to SETI by emphasizing the search for
extraterrestrial technological manifestations and artifacts (see e.g. Dyson 1960,
1966; Cirkovic 2006). This approach is also in line with the framework of the
postbiological universe introduced by Steven J. Dick, which includes insights from
astrobiology, computer science, and futures studies (Dick 2003; Cirkovic and
Bradbury 2006). This framework invites examination of new kinds of objects. For
example, Shostak (2010, p. 1029) recently proposed widening the search to Bok
globules (cold molecular clouds), hot stars, neutron stars, and black holes. This of
course implies widening the search to include not only planets but also other
objects in the universe. We thus abandon the assumption that an ETI can only
thrive on a planet.
We take Calvins remark seriously in the comic strip below (Fig. 9.2), so we
shall try to look also for ETIs that dont want to communicate with us. Generally,
they may be willing to communicate or not. Extending the search to non-com-
municative ETI also allows extragalactic SETI. As Sagan (1973b) wrote about
advanced ETIs:
There is a serious question about whether such societies are concerned with communi-
cating with us, any more than we are concerned with communicating with our protozoan
or bacterial forebears. We may study microorganisms, but we do not usually communicate
with them. I therefore raise the possibility that a horizon in communications interest exists
in the evolution of technological societies, and that a civilization very much more
advanced than we will be engaged in a busy communications traffic with its peers; but not
with us, and not via technologies accessible to us. We may be like the inhabitants of the
valleys of New Guinea who may communicate by runner or drum, but who are ignorant of
the vast international radio and cable traffic passing over, around and through them.
Carl Sagan also debunked some common chauvinisms in SETI. He singled out
oxygen, carbon, Sun-like star (G-type), planetary, and temperature chauvinisms
(Sagan 1973a, Chap. 6).
9.1 Criteria for Artificiality 213
Table 9.2 A comparison between the orthodox and the Dysonian approach to SETI (Bradbury
et al. 2011)
Orthodox SETI Dysonian SETI
Main object of search Intentional messages Artifacts, traces, and signatures
Working ATC model Biological, post-industrial Postbiological, digital existence
analog existence
Temporal window of opportunity Narrow Wide
Quantitative theoretical potential Limited Unexplored (large?)
Prejudicates ETI behavior? Yes No
Two-way communication? Yes (?) No
Interstellar travel Irrelevant Relevant
Operational risks? Yes No
Main working frequencies Radio (cm) Infrared
Natural mode of search Active Parasitic
Data resolution High Low (?)
Practical extragalactic SETI? No Yes
ATC stands for advanced technological civilization
Fig. 9.2 Calvin ponders a new proof of intelligent extraterrestrial life. Calvin and Hobbes
1989 Watterson. Distributed by Universal Uclick. Reprinted with permission. All rights reserved
To sum up, we are now more Zen in SETI, because we have abandoned the
unnecessary assumptions that ETIs must use oxygen or carbon, live on a planet
around a G-type star, use technology we know, thrive on temperatures we know
are suitable for life on Earth, wish to communicate with us, and live in our galaxy.
We mentioned the radical proposal that advanced life might be in a postbiological
form. This may seem odd, since it requires us to abandon the idea that ETI must
function on the biological substrate we know. I shall now explore this important
proposal in more detail, and then propose criteria to distinguish natural versus
artificial, grounded in general criteria, thermodynamics, and living systems theory.
214 9 High Energy Astrobiology
Surely the essence of humanity is what we do and think, not the chemical make-up of our
bodies.
(Davies 2010, p. 201)
Gravitational lifeforms are fascinating and promising if we look for the most
advanced possible extraterrestrials. Indeed, if we follow the general theory of
evolution, proportionately to the decrease of bonding energies we find an
increase in level of organization. (Laszlo 1987, p. 27). Freitas elaborates:
[G]ravitational lifeforms, should they exist, survive by making use of the most abundant
form of energy in the universe. Gravity is also the most efficient this is why a hydro-
electric power station which converts the energy of falling water into electricity (essentially
a controlled gravitational contraction of the Earth) can have an efficiency close to 100 %.
216 9 High Energy Astrobiology
In theory, gravity beings could be the most efficient creatures in the universe. Their energy
might be derived by arranging encounters of collisions between black holes, galaxies or
other celestial objects, or by carefully regulating the contraction of various objects such as
stars or planets.
We should also note that these four lifeforms are not necessarily postbiological,
but could simply be nonbiological. That is, extraterrestrial life might start based on
another physical force than electromagnetism, instead of developing onto another
physical substrate and organizing around another physical force.
The theoretical study of such a wide scope of lifeforms is still in its infancy. But
the field of Artificial Life has obviously been busy with defining and producing
lifeforms based on general principles. A promising direction is to develop the
study of possible lifeforms within the framework of chemical organization theory
(see e.g. Dittrich et al. 2001). The theory started with chemistry, but it could be
extended to nuclear reactions. The framework has indeed been generalized to
describe any kind of dynamical systems as a network of reactants and reactions,
where closed and self-maintaining networks are called organizations.
What does postbiology look like? Let us take our closest energy-hungry and
high-information and computation-intensive relative, the computer. The material
support on which computers operate has already changed five times since their
invention! Kurzweil (2005, Chap. 3) reminds us that computers went through
several revolutions, from electromechanical calculators, relay-based computing,
vacuum tubes, and discrete transistors to todays integrated circuits. Naturally,
they wont stop here, and Kurzweil predicts the sixth computational paradigm to
be three-dimensional molecular computing. It is also clear to see that at some
future point, we shall use quantum computation, manipulating the smallest
physically possible information markers.
Each computational paradigm uses quite a different material support or scale at
which computations operate. What is the lesson for SETI? Imagine a computer
engineer of the 1940s teleported into our modern world. There is only 70-odd
years between his world and yours, but you challenge him: Where is our tech-
nology? Wouldnt it be laughable to see him searching for state-of-the-art com-
puters among light bulbs? Searching for advanced ETI only with biology as we
know it is just as nave, restrictive, and laughable.
The moral of the story is that in SETI, matter doesnt matter (much). What is
important is the ability to manipulate matter-energy and information, not the
material substrate itself. The case for postbiology is strong, and I invite skeptical
readers to read many more arguments in the literature (e.g. start with Dick 2003; or
2009b and references therein). Abandoning the hypothesis of ET using a biological
substrate such as carbon, water, DNA molecules, or proteins makes us focus on the
functional aspects of living systems. This focus on function is the basis and
conceptual strength of systems theory, which aims to be independent of a particular
material substrate. This makes system theory the interdisciplinary research field
par excellence and also an indispensable tool in astrobiology and SETI.
9.1 Criteria for Artificiality 217
Let us now turn to a search for criteria to distinguish natural versus artificial
astrophysical phenomena. I start with global and thermodynamic criteria and
continue with living systems criteria.
It is always extremely hard to do science with a unique object. We saw this clearly
in the case of cosmology. I proposed the study of general aspects of our universe
by compiling statistics on possible universes resulting from computer simulations
(see Sect. 6.3). This allows us to scientifically study how robust the emergence of
complexity is and how finely tuned our universe is.
Focusing on one isolated object or phenomenon, it will also be very difficult to
decide whether it is natural or artificial. This invites us to take a more global
approach in astrobiology, to look at several similar objects available to observa-
tion, and if necessary, gather statistics on them. We have the good fortune to live
in a universe full of billions of stars and other structures. It is thus possible to
gather a lot of data and statistics. Let us see three general heuristics we can use.
Strangeness heuristic: Advanced extraterrestrial manifestations will not be easy
to model.
An ETI 2 billion years more advanced than us will not exhibit trivial behavior.
As we mentioned, difficulty of modeling is a necessary condition for advanced
ETI, but of course not a sufficient one (see Rubtsov 1991, p. 307). We should not
commit the artificiality-of-the-gaps fallacy. So strange phenomena should attract
our attention and be analyzed carefully with an astrobiological stance (as defined
above).
Non-exclusiveness heuristic: Diversity will tend to prevail unless there exists a
mechanism to enforce conformity (Brin 1983, p. 287).
Indeed, we should not expect life or intelligence to look exactly the same from
one side of the galaxy to the other, or from one galaxy to another. Of course, we
can imagine mechanisms to enforce some conformity, such as arguments from
convergent evolution, or a more speculative galactic club (Bracewell 1974),
which would regulate the activities of intelligent civilizations on a galactic scale.
Another heuristic Brin proposes is the following:
Equilibrium heuristic: It is generally considered sound scientific practice to
assume a state of quasi-equilibrium when beginning to explore a previously
undeveloped field of knowledge, since most natural phenomena with long time-
scales can be modeled as perturbations of an equilibrium state (Brin 1983, p. 287).
Brin then gives an example of a violation of this heuristic, criticizing an
argument explaining that the absence of ETIs is explained by the fact that they
have not arrived yet. This would imply a situation of profound disequilibrium.
218 9 High Energy Astrobiology
We can read Davies recommendation in another equivalent way. The second law
of thermodynamicsand thermodynamics in generalshould be the first tool to
reach for in SETI speculations. In fact, cosmologist Eric Chaisson (see e.g.
Chaisson 2001, 2003, 2011a, b) has championed the fruitfulness of an energetic
view to describe the unfolding of 13.8 billion years of cosmic evolution. We
already mentioned his free energy rate density metric, a quantitative complexity
measure based on the energy flowing through a system of a given mass (see Sect.
7.2), which allows us to describe physical, biological, and technological systems.
Given such a gigayear-scale applicability, we can reasonably hope that it would
also apply to advanced extraterrestrials. Indeed the tool is allowed in the Zen SETI
temple, since it uses only the very general concepts of energy, time, and mass.
We saw that a universal feature of living beings is their having a metabolism,
which implies thermodynamic disequilibrium. Carr and Rees (1979) also
9.1 Criteria for Artificiality 219
Could a system sustain nontrivial behavior and stay out of equilibrium? This
leads us to the third kind of thermodynamic structures, living structures.
From the point of view of classical thermodynamics, life is a miracle. Living
systems are able to maintain a state that is very far from equilibrium, despite the
second law of thermodynamics, which states that all systems tend to equilibrium.
This seemed deeply paradoxical. The key to unlocking the mystery of living
systems was to consider them in a larger thermodynamic context. They should be
modeled as open systems, meaning that a flux of energy goes through them, and not
as closed systems. The second law only applies to closed systems, not to open
systems. All in all, the second law is not violated because living systems increase
local order at the expense of a more global disorder generated in the environment.
Additionally, energy flow regulation or control is a necessary condition for the
growth, maintenance, evolution, and reproduction of complex systems (see e.g.
Aunger 2007b; Chaisson 2011a). For example, a stone processes virtually no flow
of matter-energy, and most people will agree that it is dead. On the opposite side,
we have a wildfire, which grows and uses a lot of energy but is totally uncon-
trolled. Whatever a shamans view on the matter, scientists generally dont con-
sider fire as alive. Living systems are in between these two extreme examples.
They are able to regulate their energy flow. To take humans as an example, if we
eat too little or too much, we die. We thus regulate the amount of food that we eat
to stay alive.
220 9 High Energy Astrobiology
Energy flow control: Living systems control their energy flow to grow, maintain
themselves, evolve, and reproduce.
A living organism can be described broadly by three components: a source of
energy, an organized entity, and a sink to waste (to export entropy). The living
system increases its internal organizationor negentropythanks to this energy
flow. As Freitas (1979, Sect. 6.2.3) puts it, life drives its environment to physical
or chemical disequilibrium, establishing an entropy gradient between itself and its
surroundings. He adds that all living systems possess this feature, and it is
contended that any system engaging in such negentropic operations must be
considered living to a certain extent. This leads to the criterion of metabolism:
Metabolism: Living systems maintain their organization by using a source of
energy and producing entropy.
The most straightforward astrobiological search strategy is thus to look for this
kind of non-equilibrium system in the universe. We shall soon apply these criteria
to high energy astrophysics, and see that they lead to promising and intriguing
results (if you cant wait, see Sect. 9.4).
But the thermodynamic criterion alone is insufficient. As Sagan (1975, p. 145) put
it, thermodynamic disequilibrium is a necessary but of course not a sufficient con-
dition for the recognition of extraterrestrial intelligence. So what else do we need?
The game of SETI is to get rid of a maximum of assumptions from what we know
about terrestrial life, to extract only lifes essential characteristics. The hope is that
our resulting concepts of life and intelligence will be so general that they will also
apply to extraterrestrial life. Miller (1978) wrote an impressive 1,100-page book
entitled Living Systems, in which he succeeds in applying this general theory to
many different kinds of living systems at different levels, from cells, organs,
organism, groups, organizations, and societies to the supranational organization of
civilized life. This magnum opus is a very useful guide to thinking in general terms
about extraterrestrial life (see Harrison 1997 for an extensive application).
Miller distinguishes 19 critical subsystems that all living systems have, which
can be divided into three broad categories: First, subsystems that process both
matter-energy and information; second, subsystems that process matter-energy;
and third, subsystems that process information. See Table 9.3.
The biological world is robust and full of exceptions. This is why living systems
will have most of the subsystems, but not necessarily all of them. For example,
consider a living system whose reproducer subsystem is absent. Should it be
considered as dead? This would be harsh for a mule or a post-menopausal woman.
Still, Miller maintains that if a system lacks a critical subsystem, it will be
eliminated by natural selection. This is most obvious for the reproducer.
Table 9.3 19 critical subsystems of all living systems (Miller 1978, p. 3)
Matter ? energy ? information
1. Reproducer The subsystem that is capable of giving rise to other systems similar to the one it is in
2. Boundary The subsystem at the perimeter of a system that holds together the components making up the system, protects them from
environmental stresses, and excludes or permits entry to various sorts of matter-energy and information
Matter ? energy
3. Ingestor The subsystem that brings matter-energy across the system boundary from the environment
4. Distributor The subsystem that carries inputs from outside the system or outputs from its subsystems around the system to each component
9.1 Criteria for Artificiality
5. Converter The subsystem that changes certain inputs to the system into forms more useful for the special processes of that particular system
6. Producer The subsystem that forms stable associations that endure for significant periods among matter-energy inputs to the system or outputs
from its converter, the materials synthesized being for growth, damage repair, or replacement of components of the system, or for
providing energy for moving or constituting the systems outputs of products or information markers to its subsystem
7. Matter-energy The subsystem that retains in the system, for different periods of time, deposits of various sorts of matter-energy
storage
8. Extruder The subsystem that transmits matter-energy out of the system in the forms of products or wastes
9. Motor The subsystem that moves the system or parts of it in relation to part or all of its environment or moves components of its environment
in relation to each other
10. Supporter The subsystem that maintains the proper spatial relationships among components of the system, so that they can interact without
weighting each other down or crowding each other
Information
11. Input transducer The sensory subsystem that brings markers bearing information into the system and changes them to other matter-energy forms
suitable for transmission within it
12. Internal The sensory subsystem that receives, from subsystems or components within the system, markers bearing information about
transducer significant alterations in those subsystems or components, changing them to other matter-energy forms of a sort that can be
transmitted within it
13. Channel and net The subsystem composed of a single route in physical space, or multiple interconnected routes, by which markers bearing information
are transmitted to all parts of the system
14. Decoder The subsystem that alters the code of information input to it through the input transducer or internal transducer into a private code
that can be used internally by the system
(continued)
221
Table 9.3 (continued)
222
15. Associator The subsystem that carries out the first stage of the learning process, forming enduring associations among items of information in the
system
16. Memory The subsystem that carries out the second stage of the learning process, storing various sorts of information in the system for different
periods of time
17. Decider The executive subsystem that receives information inputs from all other subsystems and transmits to them information outputs that
control the entire system
18. Encoder The subsystem that alters the code of information input to it from other information processing subsystems, from a private code
used internally by the system into a public code that can be interpreted by other systems in its environment
19. Output The subsystem that puts out markers bearing information from the system, changing markers within the system into other matter-
transducer energy forms that can be transmitted over channels in the systems environment
9 High Energy Astrobiology
9.1 Criteria for Artificiality 223
Our civilization uses more and more energy. Energy is all-purpose, so we dont
even need to understand the how or the why of this energy use to see that this trend
is robust. Extrapolating this exponential increase of energy consumption, Karda-
shev (1964) showed that this would lead our civilization to type KII in year
*5164 CE and to type KIII in *7764 CE. Although Kardashevs original scale is
an energetic one, it has often been both interpreted and extrapolated as a spatial
one. This is probably because the order of magnitude of the energy processed is as
follows: Type KI harnesses the energy of an Earth-like planet, type KII the energy
of a star, and type KIII the energy of a galaxy (see e.g. Baugher 1985, p. 116 for
KIII speculations). We are currently a *KI civilization. Let us examine, as a
typical example, our possible transition from type KI to type KII. Where are we on
this scale? Probably in an unstable transition phase between KI and KII, as
depicted in Fig. 9.3. Freitas (1979, Sect. 25.2.1) says of this transition:
The vast majority of sentient societies may lie on either side of the step (assuming
humanity is a typical case) (Gunkel 1975). Most cultures may be regarded as impotent
or omnipotent insofar as technical abilities are concerned. Only a tiny fraction of all
evolving technological societies will be in the transition phase occupied by present-day
humanity. Or, to put it in another more striking way, in any contemporary first contact
situation humans are vastly more likely to encounter gods or animals, almost never peers.
Indeed, it may be viewed as unethical for any omnipotent civilization to contact a society
which is technologically impotent or in transition.
9.2 Two Scales for Civilizational Development 225
Type II Society
TECHNICAL
OMNIPOTENCE
Type I Society
Present-day
HUMANITY
TECHNICAL
IMPOTENCE
Type 0 Society
Fig. 9.3 From technical impotence to technical omnipotence (Freitas 1979, Sect. 25.2.1)
What motives could we have to evolve to KII and harness the energy of the
Sun? There are essentially two reasons: first, simply to meet our growing energy
consumption needs; and second, to avoid the predictable death of our Sun, asso-
ciated with the destruction of life on Earth.
Let us first consider how to meet a civilizations growing energy needs. Einstein
famously formulated the matter-energy equivalence formula E = mc2. If we
consider our solar system, where can we find most of its mass-energy? It is above
all in the Sun, since 99.8 % of our solar systems mass is in the Sun. That is,
99.8 % of the energy in our solar system is to be found in the Sun. For any long-
term use, the Sun is thus the obvious resource to harness for energy. Exploiting the
energy of a star is an exploratory field of engineering known as star lifting, also
called stellar mining or stellar engineering (see e.g. Reeves 1985; Criswell 1985;
Beech 2008).
The second incentive for engineering our Sun is to avoid its red giant phase,
which will begin in *5 billion years. This enterprise is vital if we are concerned
about saving life on Earth. Various processes have been proposed for this purpose,
all aimed at elimination of this red giant phase. The topic is treated extensively by
Beech (2008). From a SETI perspective, this leads to concrete and observable
predictions. Beech (2008, pp. 190191) indeed proposes 12 possible signs of
stellar rejuvenation in progress.
226 9 High Energy Astrobiology
2
This is a pun in French. Literally it means black holes are troubling; but in French,
troublant (troubling) has the same pronunciation as trou blanc, which means white hole.
228 9 High Energy Astrobiology
9.3.2 Energetic
Black holes are the densest objects in the universe. If we want to address the need
for continually increasing energy consumption, it would be beneficial to be able to
store or extract energy from black holes. Penrose (1969, pp. 270272) imagined an
extraction mechanism that involves injecting matter into a black hole in such a
way as to allow extraction of its rotational energy (see also Misner et al. 1973,
p. 908, for more details). Blandford and Znajek (1977) suggested a similar process
with electrically charged and rotating black holes. Other proposals suggest col-
lecting energy from the gravitational waves generated by colliding black holes.
Misner imagined this in 1968 in a personal communication to Penrose (1969).
Frautschi (1982) also proposed to merge black holes as a way to produce a power
source. Crane (2010, p. 370) has also suggested that small black holes could be
used as an energy source, since they can convert matter into energy via the
Hawking radiation with great efficiency.
9.3.3 Societal
The Hawking radiation, Crane argues, could make them the perfect waste-disposal
device. Chaisson (1988, pp. 197198) also envisioned that a black hole would be
an ideal solution for a civilization like ours, short on energy and long on garbage.
Crane and Westmoreland (2009) conducted an extensive study on the possibility of
black hole starships. Davies (2010, p. 142) also speculated that a black hole could
be used to launch a spacecraft at a relativistic speed, by smartly using its gravi-
tational field. Furthermore, general relativity leads to the fascinating topic of time
travel via wormholes, theoretical cousins of black holes. Although their existence
is extremely implausible, they could in theory provide shortcuts for traveling in
spacetime (for popular accounts see Thorne 1994; Randall 2005).
9.3 Black Holes as Attractors for Intelligence 229
9.3.4 Scientific
Of all the entities I have encountered in my life in physics, none approaches the black hole
in fascination. And none, I think, is a more important constituent of this universe we call
home.
John A. Wheeler (Taylor and Wheeler 2000, p. F-31)
Let us assume that terrestrial and ETIs are curious and continue to develop science.
Black holes, especially their interiors, currently challenge our knowledge of the
three fundamental physical theories: quantum mechanics, general relativity, and
thermodynamics. For scientific purposes, there might be an incentive to artificially
produce black holes to better understand them. Although it remains an engineering
challenge, Westmoreland (2010) showed how artificial optical black holes could
be created out of electromagnetic radiation. Even though they are improbable
sources of danger, some concerns have been raised regarding the accidental pro-
duction of micro black holes in particle accelerators (Giddings and Thomas 2002).
Still, we might want to produce them intentionally in the future.
A more concrete scientific application of black hole technology is to use them
as telescopes or communication devices. How is this possible? An established
consequence of general relativity theory is that light is bent by massive objects.
This is known as gravitational lensing. For several decades, researchers have
proposed to use the Sun as a gravitational lens (see e.g. Von Eshleman 1979;
Drake 1988). At 22.45 AU and 29.59 AU we have a focus for gravitational waves
and neutrinos. Starting from 550 AU, electromagnetic waves converge. Those
focal regions offer one of the greatest opportunity for astronomy and astrophysics,
offering gains from 2 to 9 orders of magnitude compared to Earth-based tele-
scopes. Over the years, Maccone (2009) has detailed with great technical precision
such a scientific mission, called FOCAL. Such gravitational lensing could be used
not only for observation but also for communication. If we plan to continue and
extend our quest to understand the cosmos, this mission is a great chance to
complement our fuzzy sky survey with a focused one. In other words, the time may
be ripe to put on our cosmic glasses and to use cosmic loudspeakers.
But other ETIs may already have binoculars. Indeed, it is easy to extrapolate the
maximal capacity of gravitational lensing using instead of the Sun a much more
massive object, i.e. a neutron star or a black hole. This would probably constitute
the most powerful possible telescope. This possibility was envisionedyet not
developedby Von Eshleman in (1991). Recently, Maccone (2012) has studied
the gravitational lensing potential of supermassive black holes, and showed that
even intergalactic communication would be feasible using them. Maccone (2012,
pp. 119120) writes:
[T]his line of thought clearly shows that the central massive black hole of every galaxy is
by far the most important resource of that galaxy for SETI purposes. In fact, it is like the
central radio station of that galaxy that every civilization living in that galaxy would
like to control in order to keep in touch with other aliens living in nearby galaxies.
230 9 High Energy Astrobiology
9.3.5 Computational
But black holes could be even more than ultimate computers. At the edge of
theoretical computer science, some models of computation outperform Turings
original definition. Such devices are called hypercomputers (see e.g. Earman and
Norton 1993). Hypercomputation differ crucially from quantum computation.
Quantum computers could run fast algorithms, for example to factorize natural
numbers, which do not exist in classical computation (see e.g. Shor 1997).
However, hypercomputation often involves the computation in a finite time of
what would normally take an infinite time. This time-related aspect is why hy-
percomputation proposals sometimes play with relativistic effects to dilate time.
Hypercomputing devices have been theorized based on particular spacetime
structures or on slowly rotating black holes (see e.g. Etesi and Nmeti 2002;
Andrka et al. 2009). If the construction of such hypercomputers is indeed pos-
sibleand successfulthis would bring qualitatively new ways to understand and
model our universe. It could even be a breakthrough comparable to the invention
of the computer itself.
9.3 Black Holes as Attractors for Intelligence 231
9.3.6 Philosophical
In a SETI mindset, considering seriously that black holes are attractors for intel-
ligence, we can now start to ask some further questions. What are the observable
manifestations of a black hole when its used either as an energy source, or for
waste disposal, or as a time-machine, or as a starship engine, or as an ultimate or
hypercomputer, or as a universe production facility?
The exercise is highly speculative, and raises the efficiency objection. We saw
that the Barrow scale trend makes civilizations develop with more and more
efficiency. This would make small black holes more useful and thus hard or
impossible to detect. It would be like trying to detect from Earth the existence of
nanotechnology on the Moon. This line of argument is the essence of Smarts
(2009, 2012) response to Fermis paradox: We dont see any ETIs because theyre
confined inside black holes. Another example: Once a civilization developed the
capacity to perform thermodynamically reversible computation, it would generate
almost no entropy and therefore become undetectable. On the other hand, as
Krauss and Starkman (2000) have argued, erasure of unnecessary memories is
essential for something like consciousness to continue in the universe, and this
operation has an entropic cost (Landauer 1961). So we can expect that a very
efficient civilization would still generate entropy.
Does a civilization have to choose between energy-intensive technology and
energy efficiency, as Tarter (1996, p. 3) suggested? No! At least we never did. Our
technology has always been more efficient, yet it has also always been more
energy hungry. The two trends of more energy use and more energy efficiency are
definitely not incompatible. The key lies in the availability of energy. If it is poor,
efficiency will strongly constrain civilizational development. If energy is more
freely available, then efficiency matters less and civilizations can also grow on the
Kardashev scale.
To summarize, on the Kardashev scale, we saw that a type KII civilization
would be able to use an amount of energy on the order of a star, using something
called star lifting. Considering the magnitude of such an undertaking, it has a good
chance to be observable. On the Barrow scale, we have argued that density attracts
intelligence, up to black hole organization. We call such a civilization type BX. It
is the culmination of civilization on that scale.
Given all this, can we derive a concrete astrobiological search strategy that
combines both the Kardashev and the Barrow scales? Could a civilization harness
the energy of a star with great efficiency and run its organization at something like
black hole density? Can we imagine one day detecting such a configuration?
We dont need to imagine or to wait because such configurations already exist!
Indeed, about 20 systems composed of a black hole accreting gas from a star have
been found today (e.g. GRO J1655-40, GRS 1915+105, 1659-487, SS433, etc.).
They are among the family of binary systems and are called X-ray binaries (XRB)
because of their emissions in the X-ray electromagnetic spectrum. For decades,
they have been studied as natural astrophysical systems. But we shall now take an
9.4 Signs of Starivores? 233
astrobiological stance and see how far they can be considered as artificial astro-
physical systems.
Significantly, researchers have concluded that a thin accretion disk around a
rotating black hole is one of the most efficient power source in the universe, a
process up to *50 times more efficient than nuclear fusion occurring in stars (e.g.
Thorne 1974; Narayan and Quataert 2005). There is only one known process with
more efficiency, namely the reaction between matter particles and their corre-
sponding antimatter particles, which is 100 % efficient, converting all the mass
into energy. If any civilization aims to climb the Kardashev scale, it will certainly
at some point want to master these energy sources.
The search for black hole density was aimed at finding maximally advanced
civilizations. But we can easily relax the argument to allow less energy use and
lower density. We can replace the black hole (BH) with a neutron star (NS) or a
white dwarf (WD) or even a planet. And this opens the door of the fascinating
binary zoo.
Traditional astrophysics sees white dwarfs, neutron stars, or black holes as stellar
graveyards, because in most cases such dense bodies are theorized to be the
remains of dead stars. However, these bodies are perplexing on account of the
variety of their behavior. Binary astrophysicists speak of the binary zoo because
of their staggering variety. As Lipunov (1989, p. 206) puts it:
Looking back at the late 1960s, the study of variable stars seemed a wonderland. Articles,
books, and catalogues swarmed with the types of variables whose diversity terrified the
theorist. There were novae, novae-like stars, recurrent novae, dwarf novae, flare stars,
cataclysmic stars, eruptive stars, etc. Some stars were known simply as irregular variables,
while some stars of the same type were often called different things. Any attempt at
classification seemed hopeless.
Fig. 9.5 Left A detached binary with both stars within their Roche lobes. Middle A semi-
detached binary: the secondary fills its Roche lobe and emits a stream of material from L1. If the
primary is small enough, the stream will orbit around it. If it were larger, the stream would hit the
primary, as occurs in some Algol-type binaries. Right A contact binary, with both stars overfilling
their Roche lobes (from Hellier 2001, p. 22)
Fig. 9.6 A 3-dimensional representation of the Roche potential in a binary star with a mass ratio
of 2, in the co-rotating frame. The droplet-shaped figures in the equipotential plot below the
curved surface are called the Roche lobes of each star. L1, L2, and L3 are the Lagrangian points
where forces cancel out. Mass can flow through the saddle point L1 from one star to its
companion, if the star fills its Roche lobe (Marc van der Sluys 2006, Wikimedia)
Let us consider again our thermodynamic criteria for living systems. Which of
the three kinds of interaction is most like a living system? Conservative processes
are poor candidates because no matter is expelled to a sink outside the system.
Rapid non-conservative processes are also unpromising because their duration is
short and they end with the total destruction of the system. The third category is
more promising because all the conditions of a metabolism are put together. There
is a regulation of the energy flow from one star to the compact object, there is an
energy gradient between the two components, and some matter is regularly ejected
through cataclysms (novas) or jets. However, unlike supernovas, novas and jets do
not destroy the system. So it makes sense to restrict our focus to this category.
Eggleton reviews many different processes driving slow non-conservative
processes, such as gravitational radiation, tidal friction, wind processes, magnetic
braking, and stellar dynamos. It is beyond my expertise to explain or explore in
detail the complicated physics of such systems.
In fact, such processes become very hard to model. They require one to take
into account simultaneously the most important physical theories: thermodynamics
for the energetic exchanges, magnetohydrodynamics to describe the flux of gas
driven and channeled by magnetic fields from one component to another, rela-
tivistic effects when gravitating bodies are very dense (white dwarf, neutron stars,
236 9 High Energy Astrobiology
black holes), and quantum effects because of the high densities. All this is in
addition to the basic prerequisite of stellar (single star) astrophysics. Such extreme
regimes are unique opportunities to test physical theories, because we have no way
to even approach such conditions by setting up experiments here on Earth. This is
why they are so important and interesting to physicists and astrophysicists. In most
cases, the gainer of mass (usually the denser body) develops an accretion disc,
where matter accretes and rotates before interacting with the dense body. The
physics of accretion discs is very challenging, notably because it involves the
phenomena of turbulence and viscosity, which are still poorly understood.
Accretion is a ubiquitous astrophysical process in galaxy and planetary for-
mation, so we may object that all binaries may simply always be natural. But let
me introduce an analogy. Fission can be found in natural processes, as well as
fusion, which is one of the core energetic processes in stellar evolution. Yet
humans seek to copy them, and would certainly benefit greatly fromalways
controlling them. So it is not because a process is known to occur naturally that its
use in a given case is not under intelligent control. In fact, the situation may even
be more subtle. The formation of XRBs might be natural, but they may later be
controlled or taken over by ETIs, just as a river flowing down a mountain is a
natural gravitational energy source that humans can harness with hydroelectric
power stations.
We now have enough concepts to define more precisely a putative ETI in a
binary system. It is an extraterrestrial civilization using stellar energy (Type KII),
in the configuration of a slow non-conservative transient accreting binary (ther-
modynamic criterion), with the dense primary (Barrow scale) being either a
planet, a white dwarf, a neutron star, or a black hole. I call such hypothetical
civilizations starivores, defined in short as:
Starivore3: a civilization that actively feeds on stars
This is a convenient shorthand for the more accurate definition above. If such
binary systems are starivores, then we should find that the primitive versions of
them extract energy from a star paired with a planet that is not dense compared to
WDs, NSs, or BHs. This would happen at a low accretion rate, so planetary
accretion is one of the concrete prediction from the starivore hypothesis (and
indeed planet-star interactions have recently been discovered, see e.g. Lecavelier
des Etangs et al. 2012).
So far, we have only raised suspicion about some peculiar binary systems that
are out of thermodynamic equilibrium. But again, this is only a necessary con-
dition for extraterrestrial life, not sufficient. We shall now apply the criteria we
have developed to further probe the starivore hypothesis.
3
Other neologisms could have been stellivore (from Latin stella, star; and vorus, eater) or
asterophage (from Greek astero, star; and phage, eater). But I prefer starivore (from English
star with Latin vorus) for its ease of understanding, probably because of its proximity to
carnivore.
9.4 Signs of Starivores? 237
Putative starivores comply with the strangeness criterion, because they are difficult
to model and predict, and display an impressive variety of behavior. This invites us
to study them with an astrobiological stance.
The heuristic of non-exclusiveness is clearly triggered because the literature on
binaries shows a wide variety of them. The variety of white dwarfs implicated in
cataclysmic variable (CV) stars is particularly puzzling (see the reference book,
Warner 1995; Hellier 2001 for a more accessible account). The accretion process
itself can be quite varied. There are of course accretion discs, but Warner (1995,
p. 334) also reports CV stars accreting magnetically not on 1 or 2 magnetic poles,
but on 3 or 4.
The equilibrium heuristic seems also to be respected because there are already
plenty of binaries (and putative starivores) out there.
The inverse distance-development principle leads to a specific and testable pre-
diction. We should see fewer and fewer putative starivores as we observe ever more
remote galaxies. We can even refine the prediction and state that the higher accretion
rates (i.e. energy use) or higher development on the Kardashev scale should be less
and less prominent as we look further away. The same holds with density or the
Barrow scale. We should see ever fewer semi-detached binaries in transient
accretion as we observe ever more remote galaxies. For example, black holes or
neutron stars in transient accretion should be even rarer than cataclysmic variables.
Of course, such reasoning about artificial evolution must be confronted with
natural evolution models, to see which account explains and predicts more.
It is also worth mentioning that the accretion is not rough but instead reaches a
small region of the white dwarf, 1 % the size of its radius (Hellier 2001, p. 111).
Different accretion types in accreting white dwarfs are shown in Fig. 9.7. They are
called cataclysmic variables, and if a more or less strong magnetic field is present,
polars or intermediate polars.
To sum up, a robust necessary condition for life is a metabolism, that is, the
utilization of a flow of energy to draw order from chaos and build internal com-
plexity, while dissipating entropy. This situation appears to be fulfilled in some
binary systems, such as cataclysmic variables, X-ray pulsars, and microquasars.
They all display an energy flow coming from their companion star, and dissipate
entropy in the form of regular cataclysms (in cataclysmic variables) or jets (X-ray
pulsars, and black holes). Such binaries therefore have a kind of metabolism, a
fundamental property of living systems. Admittedly, we have not established
whether or not such systems build internal complexity. Up to now, the arguments
presented are only suggestive and prove nothing definitively, so let us now see
whether some binaries can do better and fulfill further criteria for living systems.
9.4 Signs of Starivores? 239
Fig. 9.7 Schematic illustration of the different types of accretion flow in cataclysmic variables:
a non-magnetic systems; b intermediate polars, and c polars (from Cropper et al. 2002, p. 2915)
Let us take again the first 10 critical subsystems that all living system have, and
see if putative starivores display them (see Table 9.5).
I shall now discuss and comment on this tentative living systems interpretation,
for white dwarfs, neutron stars, and black holes respectively. I shall italicize
critical subsystems when I mention them.
One could think that the accretion rate of white dwarfs is simply determined by
the orbital period and the masses of the two stars. This is wrong. As Hellier (2001,
p. 171) writes, systems that are very similar in these respects can have M _
240 9 High Energy Astrobiology
Table 9.5 Tentative living systems interpretation of some binary systems, from a high energy
astrobiological perspective. Ten critical living subsystems are suggested to apply to interacting
binaries composed of a primary white dwarf, neutron star, or black hole
Matter ? energy ? information
1. Reproducer The hypothesized cosmological artificial selection scenario, where black
holes play a key role in universe reproduction (see Chap. 8)
2. Boundary White dwarfs have atmospheres (hydrogen and helium layers), which
regulate the energetic outflow of the star
Neutron stars have outer and inner crusts
Black holes in rotation have an ergosphere and an event horizon, which
delimit boundaries for radiation or light to escape or not
Matter ? energy
3. Ingestor Binaries display many different types of accretion methods. We saw that
magnetic white dwarfs make the accretion follow fields lines. Other
accretion types include Roche-lobe overflow, tidal friction, gravitational
radiation, magnetic activity driven by rapid rotation, stellar winds,
magnetic braking, accretion disc, and accretion curtain
4. Distributor This component is unclear, unless a mechanism to distribute the accreted
energy is found in WD, NS, and BH
5. Converter Conversion of energy extracted from the secondary, for changing the orbit,
changing the rotation, increasing the magnetic field, regulating the
accretion flow, or maintaining a hypothetical internal organization. In
white dwarfs, note that the material extruded (nova ejecta) has a different
chemical composition from the accreted material
6. Producer Subject to different interpretations. In white dwarfs, the system of accretion
and recurrent dwarf novas outbursts. In neutron stars and black holes, the
system of accretion and periodic jets
7. Matter-energy Matter-energy storage in binaries is mainly in the accretion disc. The disc
storage can also act as an energy buffer. But energy can also be stored in the
rotation of the dense component, or in its sheer mass
8. Extruder In white dwarfs, recurrent novas, or classical novas
In neutron stars and black holes, the relativistic jets. Their composition
remains a matter of debate
9. Motor We should expect fine motor control of e.g. orbital period, rotation speed,
inclination (e.g. in polars to move the magnetic field lines and thus
control the accretion rate)
Some binaries also move at high speed through the galaxy (e.g. the
extremely low-mass white dwarf J0755 ? 4906, the neutron star IGR
J1104 - 6103 or the black hole XTE J1118 ? 480)
10. Supporter Unclear. But accretion control may require adjustments of many parameters
in the binary system to be effective
invited to look at the nova ejecta, which are expelled during novas or recurrent
novas. We follow here a review by Prialnik (2001). At first we might imagine it is
just the accreted matter that is ejected. However, analysis of the composition of
nova ejecta shows that this is not possible, since they display unusual heavy-
element abundance, and such heavy elements are not present in the accreted star.
Another possibility is that the heavy elements are produced during the nova. This
also is unlikely, because the temperature is not high enough to produce heavier
elements than helium. There remain two possibilities. Either the accreted matter is
somehow mixed with white dwarf material, or the accreted material is used as fuel
to perform work and produces waste as heavy elements.
242 9 High Energy Astrobiology
It is possible to interpret the different manners in which gas flows from a living
systems perspective. Three such different states of a neutron star, corresponding to
the extruder, motor, and ingestor subsystems, are shown in Fig. 9.9.
The behavior of neutron stars can be varied, and is challenging to explain. In
particular, they display quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). Those QPOs are tra-
ditionally attributed to instabilities in the accretion disc. However, other models
propose that a special mode of nuclear burning takes place on the surface of
neutron stars, which is responsible for the QPOs (see e.g. Revnivtsev et al. 2001;
Heger et al. 2007). Interestingly, in some systems the bursts are not frequent
enough to burn all the accreted fuel. A possibleyet of course very speculative
explanation is that this free energy is being used for the internal organization of the
neutron star.
Let us now turn to black holes again. Black holes in binaries that accrete matter
and emit jets are called microquasars. Their names comes from their behavior,
which resembles the behavior of the supermassive black holes found at the center
of galaxies, called quasars, which also emit jets. Again, the accretion pattern is
varying, and challenging to explain. As Meszaros (2010, p. 101) puts it, the most
puzzling property found in micro-quasars and in a subset of X-ray binaries is that
the accretion is variable. This is illustrated by the sample of X-ray light curves of
GRS 1915 ? 105 shown in Fig. 9.10.
The ingestor function of black holes is arguably more efficient than that of
white dwarfs. Black holes accrete energy more carefully than white dwarfs. Black
holes in binaries periodically emit soft X-rays, and hence such sources are called
soft X-ray transient (SXT). As Hellier (2001, p. 184) writes:
9.4 Signs of Starivores? 243
In dwarf novae the outburst ends when a cooling wave moves through the disc in 12 days
(the thermal timescale on which disc material can heat or cool the next annulus). In
SXTs the irradiation prevents the cooling wave from moving inwards, and so the disc is
maintained in a high state. It is gradually depleted of material on a longer timescale of
*1 month (the viscous timescale on which material flows through the disc). Thus SXT
discs are nearly completely accreted by each outburst (whereas only *10 % of a dwarf-
nova disc is accreted during an outburst), and so decades can elapse before the disc is
sufficiently replenished for the next outburst (compared to the * monthly recurrence of
dwarf novae).
244 9 High Energy Astrobiology
Fig. 9.10 A sample of X-ray light curves from black hole binary GRS 1915 ? 105, obtained
with the RXTE satellite in the 230 keV band. All the plots are on the same scale, and illustrate
the astonishing range of behavior this one system exhibits. From (Hellier 2001, p. 186), based on
(Muno et al. 1999)
Fig. 9.11 The 1/4-power law for replication time as a function of replicator mass for biological
and manmade replicators: circles = biological replicators, triangles = manmade replicators.
From Freitas and Merkle (2004, p. 175)
Fig. 9.12 A sky map in the 511 keV electronpositron annihilation line (a), and the sky
distribution of hard LMXBs (b). From (Weidenspointner et al. 2008)
evolution is nearly impossible, for high energy astrophysicists as well as for high
energy astrobiologists. But observing different systems might give us enough clues
to reconstruct evolutionary trajectories.
Imagine you are a butterfly and your life lasts only one day. Your mission is to
study the human species. If you decide to follow one person during your day, you
will learn some details about his or her life. But if in this one day, you fly over a
city, and observe hundreds of people of all ages, from infancy to senility, you will
get a clearer picture of the human species. Humans are like butterflies compared to
putative starivores. If we want to understand them, our best strategy is to observe
many of them and try to construct a global picture.
But even if we were to find a binary system displaying all the 10 matter-energy
subsystems, would this constitute a proof that it is a living ETI? It would still be
248 9 High Energy Astrobiology
debatable. This brings us to another objection, namely that we did not take into
account the 9 remaining critical informational subsystems. The reason is that they
are all unknown, and maybe unknowable without actually establishing contact. We
could speculate that the input transducer would be implemented via gravitational
lensing with the dense object, but this is nearly impossible to check.
Now, what about the output transducer, which is the focus of orthodox SETI?
Could we search for information transmission from hypothetical starivores? Cer-
tainly, and this brings us to pulsars, and X-ray pulsars in particular. Let us take a
closer look at them.
All our arguments so far converge on pulsars as the best ETI candidates. Let us see
why. First, many pulsars are found in binary systems, so all our arguments so far
apply to them. Among binary pulsars, the most puzzling ones are millisecond
pulsars and X-ray pulsars (see e.g. Ghosh 2007). They are thought to be very
dense neutron stars, so they comply with the Barrow scale civilizational devel-
opmental trend toward small scales and high density. However, many pulsars are
not in binaries, and claiming the artificiality of isolated pulsars is less in line with
our argument.
Second, we proposed arguments for living systems on the basis of matter-
energy processes in binaries. But even if the arguments are granted, they may still
be insufficient to prove the existence of ETI. Information processing is key to all
life and complexity, and if we cant find any proof of it, it will remain debatable
whether we have found ETI. In that sense, we are back to orthodox SETI, which
focuses on information. More specifically, we conjecture that some pulsars may
fulfill one critical living subsystem function, the output transducer function of
transmitting information into the environment.
Since the discovery of pulsars, astronomers have often flirted with the possi-
bility of their being artificial (see McNamara 2008 for a popular-science account
of the history of pulsars). It is well known that Jocelyn Bell Burnell and Antony
Hewish observed the first pulsar on November 28, 1967. They were astonished to
observe such regular pulses and suspected they might be of artificial origin. They
were so puzzled that they nicknamed the source LGM for little green man
(Burnell 2004).
Despite the strangeness of the phenomenon, astrophysicists job is to produce
natural models, not artificial ones. So they quickly settled on a natural model
called the lighthouse model (Gold 1968). In it, the pulsating source is a neutron
star. The model further interprets the pulses as coming from the two poles of the
rotating neutron star, which beam magnetodipole radiation. These beams sweep
across the sky to generate one observed pulse per rotation period.
However, the pulsar emission mechanism remains largely unsettled. As Shapiro
(1983, p. 289) writes:
9.4 Signs of Starivores? 249
The actual mechanism by which pulsars convert the rotational energy of the neutron star
into the observed pulses is poorly understood. Many theoretical models have been pro-
posed, but no single one is compelling [footnote: See Manchester and Taylor (1977),
Ruderman (1980), Sieber and Wielebinski (1981), or Michel (1982) for a review and
critique of some of them.] This is so despite the seemingly universal characteristics of the
radio emission from different pulsars; a single basic model probably applies to all pulsars.
On the other hand, the energy observed in pulses is only a small fraction [footnote: The
fraction is B10-9 for the Crab, and B10-2 for some old pulsars] of the total rotational
energy dissipated, so that ignorance of the actual pulsed emission process may be
decoupled from the gross energetics of radiating neutron stars.
Shapiro wrote this in 1983, but recent accounts still leave many open problems
in the study of pulsars. For example, Beskin (2010, p. 89) writes:
The general view of the radio pulsar activity seems to have been established over many
years. On the other hand, some fundamental problems are still to be solved. It is, first of
all, the problem of the physical nature of the coherent radio emission of pulsars. In
particular, as in the 1970s, there is no common view of the problem of the coherent radio
emission mechanism of a maser or an antenna type. Moreover, there is no common view
of the pulsar magnetosphere structure. The point is that the initial hypothesis for the
magnetodipole energy loss mechanism is, undoubtedly, unrealistic. Therefore, the problem
of the slowing-down mechanism can be solved only if the magnetosphere structure of
neutron stars is established. However, a consistent theory of radio pulsar magnetospheres
has not yet been developed. Thus, the structure of longitudinal currents circulating in the
magnetosphere has not been specified and, hence, the problems of neutron star braking,
particle acceleration, and energy transport beyond the light cylinder have not been solved
either. The theory of the inner structure of neutron stars is also far from completion.
It is outside our scope to treat the difficult question of what would constitute an
artificial informational signal. We discussed principally matter-energy criteria, but
250 9 High Energy Astrobiology
It is remarkable that some pulsars fit those last two features very well. For
example, the highly magnetized object (XTE J1810197 or PSR J18091943, also
called a magnetar) emits at 1.4 GHz. Research on pulsars has also progressed
immensely since 1967, and many pulsars are indeed flashing on and off for long
periods (pulse nulling) or switching between frequencies (mode changing). They
also display other properties such as polarization, subpulse drifting, giant pulses,
or pulse microstructure (see e.g. Manchester 2009 for a review).
These pulsar behaviors are hard to explain within the lighthouse model. For
example, how can it explain pulse nulling? Does this indicate that the neutron star
suddenly stops rotating, and then starts again? Or just that its pole emissions
stop from time to time? If so, why and how?
LaViolette (2006) speculated about pulsars as message broadcasters. His book
offers a valuable critique of standard models of pulsars and raises suspicions about
their artificiality. LaViolette speculates that pulsars beam preferentially to the
Earth to indicate the coming of (or a previous) galactic superwave resulting from
the activity of the supermassive black hole at the center of the galaxy. However,
over and above the anthropomorphism implied by preferential beaming toward the
Earth, the idea lacks scientific testability. Beyond a claimed message about a
coming galactic superwave catastrophe, no prediction is made to inform us when
this will happen. No possible refutation is proposed either, and the pulses them-
selves are also not analyzed for putative messages. Furthermore, it is a pity that
analyses in the book are soon discredited by other extraordinary claims, such as an
incredible measurement of 64 times faster than light speed, with an ordinary
personal communication (LaViolette 2006, p. 48) as the only evidence offered to
support the claim.
Anyhow, natural or artificial, pulsars are arguably very helpful for galactic
navigation. Indeed, when the Pioneer plaques placed on board the 1972 Pioneer 10
and 1973 Pioneer 11 spacecraft were designed, so as to be understandable if ever
intercepted by extraterrestrial life, Sagan et al. (1972) used pulsars and the center
of the galaxy to locate the position of the Sun (see Fig. 9.13).
9.4 Signs of Starivores? 251
Fig. 9.13 The Pioneer 10 plaque. On the left, the position of the Sun is shown relative to 14
pulsars and the center of the galaxy. Image credits: NASA
But pulsars can still be much more useful. Emadzadeh and Speyer (2011)
recently showed that absolute and relative navigation is possible thanks to X-ray
pulsars. It is a far from trivial matter when you navigate at a significant fraction of
the speed of light to keep track of time, because of the time-dilation and con-
traction effects predicted by relativity theory. Why X-ray pulsars specifically? The
authors elaborate (Emadzadeh and Speyer 2011, p. 10):
The main advantage of spacecraft navigation using X-ray sources is that small sized
detectors can be employed (P. S. Ray, Wood, and Phlips 2006). This provides savings in
power and mass for spacecraft operations. Another advantage of using X-ray sources is
that they are widely distributed. The geometric dispersion of pulsars in the sky is
important to enhance accuracy of three-dimensional position estimation since the
observability of the source is an important issue. An important complication that must be
addressed in utilizing an X-ray source in a navigation system is the timing glitches in its
rotation rates. Of X-ray pulsars, ones that are bright and have extremely stable and
predictable rotation rates are suitable candidates for the purpose of navigation. These
sources are usually older pulsars that have rotation periods on the order of several
milliseconds.
It is worth noting that small X-ray detectors are an important feature for civi-
lizations climbing the Barrow scale. Instead of sending big spacecraft carrying
huge detectors, they would rather send small spacecraft with small detectors.
In recent years, pulsars have attracted attention in SETI. For example, in an
unpublished preprint, Benford et al. (2008) suggested that the strange radio
252 9 High Energy Astrobiology
emission from GCRT J17445-3009 could be an artificial beacon (see also LaVi-
olette 2006, pp. 9192). Edmondson and Stevens (2003) also proposed a research
program to find habitable stars based on pulsar alignments.
To conclude, we are not sure how to file pulsars, as natural or artificial. The files
on X-ray pulsars, are better classified as X-files. We need to figure out with an
astrobiological stance whether the pulses contain information and structure. Could
it be that Jocelyn Bells intuition that pulsars are artificial was correct after all?
9.5 Objections
Hypotheses about extraterrestrial intelligence are hypotheses, not facts. A fine line sep-
arates the rational process of extrapolating our knowledge of life on Earth to life else-
where and the irrational process of projecting fantasies, wishes, or fears onto unknown
entities whose very existence is in doubt. We try to do the former without lapsing into the
latter, but given our present state of knowledge, the question is not whether but how often
we slip across the line.
(A. A. Harrison 1997, p. 313)
Most readers will certainly have some or many objections against the arguments
above. As Harrison says, it is likely that some, many, or even all extrapolations I
propose are wrong. But at least the existence of binaries is a fact, so the starivore
hypothesis is scientifically testable. I shall now formulate and anticipate objec-
tions, and suggest replies. If you have more objections or suggestions, please let
me know!
9.5.1 Is it New?
No, its not a new idea. Actually, forming a binary system is an obvious way to
have energy permanently at hand. In his influential science fiction novel The Star
Maker, Stapledon (1953, p. 128) saw the formation of a binary as a solution for
long interstellar travel. Let us quote him at length:
Actual interstellar voyaging was first effected by detaching a planet from its natural orbit
by a series of well-timed and well-placed rocket impulsions, and thus projecting it into
outer space at a speed far greater than the normal planetary and stellar speeds.
Something more than this was necessary, since life on a sunless planet would have been
impossible. For short interstellar voyages the difficulty was sometimes overcome by the
generation of sub-atomic energy from the planets own substance; but for longer voyages,
lasting for many thousands of years, the only method was to form a small artificial sun,
and project it into space as a blazing satellite of the living world.
For this purpose an uninhabited planet would be brought into proximity with the home
planet to form a binary system. A mechanism would then be contrived for the controlled
disintegration of the atoms of the lifeless planet, to provide a constant source of light and
heat. The two bodies, revolving round one another, would be launched among the stars.
9.5 Objections 253
If the starivore hypothesis is correct, we could say on the one hand that
Stapledon had anticipated a form that extraterrestrials could take, but on the other
hand that he did not push the idea far enough in asserting that known binaries may
be extraterrestrials. It would be an interesting case where science fiction does not
go far enough, where reality is stranger than fiction. The plausibility of using a star
as an engine for interstellar travel has also been researched scientifically (see e.g.
the pioneering work of Shkadov 1987). Interestingly, as we mentioned earlier, we
do actually observe binaries that move.
Beech (2008, p. 157) also hinted at the possibility that a low-mass X-ray binary
could be formed in the context of Sun rejuvenation engineering, to avoid its red
giant phase.
star. Since these quantitative questions remain open, for the sake of the argument,
let us grant that a Dyson sphere still harnesses more energy than an accretion-
powered starivore.
The race to more energy is not the whole story. In general it is most parsi-
monious to harvest just the energy you need for your goals. To take a human
example, if you eat too much or too little you die. As another example, I guess
galaxy-wide civilizations are unlikely because the finitude of the speed of light
would make such a civilization communicate, improve, evolve, cooperate, and
progress at a very slow pace. The same applies to Dyson spheres versus accretion.
The objection that a starivore uses less energy than a Dyson sphere takes into
account only the Kardashev scale, not the Barrow scale. A Dyson sphere of 1 AU
radius is totally anti-Barrow scale because it is a huge structure. The energy needs
to be stored and transferred over astronomical distances before performing useful
work. A starivore civilization would accrete energy very near its boundary, ready
to be used, processed, or stored.
Additionally, starivores may be able to control the accretion rate, thereby
controlling the energy use depending on their needs. The accretion disk or the
rotation of the dense body (WD, NS, BH) could be used as a buffer to store
additional energy. No additional resources are needed in transferring energy
through a megastructure and the energy is directly available. Although it is con-
ceivable that a Dyson sphere could control its energy intake efficiently, it is not
clear how.
Furthermore, there is the issue of entropy production and the extruder function.
Dyson hypothesized that infrared radiation would leak out of a Dyson sphere and
that this would be an observable feature. But this is not an efficient way to get rid
of waste products, at least not as efficient as the putative waste products of novas
or jets regularly being expelled by some binaries, sometimes at velocities near the
speed of light.
Finally, there is a closing objection. Dyson spheres are purely hypothetical
constructs, with no observational counterpart found, despite some searches (see
e.g. Jugaku et al. 1995; Carrigan 2009). By contrast, astrophysicists and amateur
astronomers observe binaries daily.
Certainly not. The binary configuration obviously occurs naturally. Only a small
subset of binaries are candidates for life. You may want to briefly revisit the binary
zoo (Sect. 9.4.2).
9.5 Objections 255
Many people find it hard to believe that completely postbiological entities could
really exist. In other words, they think life must be based on carbon and water.
Functional and systems-theoretic perspectives on the world make us see the
material support as one parameter like any other in a system. Most of us have no
idea of the material support and organization underlying the computers we use. We
only care that they perform the functions we want (see also Sect. 9.1.3 above).
What matters is the organization, structure and function of a system. Matter
doesnt matter as much.
Would living things not burn at stellar temperatures? Can we seriously maintain
that starivores would operate at hundreds of millions of degrees?
We tend to think that life has strict boundaries, and that high temperatures or a
high magnetic field would destroy any kind of living organization. But these are
only prejudices. The discovery of extremophiles living with no light or under high
temperatures greatly surprised us. We tend to dismiss quickly as impossible or
dangerous an area we do not know. The first map drawers drew dragons behind
what they had explored. We have not explored the possibility of life or complex
organization at very high temperatures or under very strong magnetic fields. Yet
regarding the latter we saw that under strong magnetic fields, a new stable
chemical bond emerges beyond the two chemical bonds already known (Lange
et al. 2012).
For the sake of the argument, let us grant that life at stellar temperatures is
indeed impossible. We could still see the binary as a power station, and suppose
that intelligent beings would stay cool on a planet orbiting the accreting binary.
However, I think it is unlikely, because of additional complications and costs of
energy transfer associated with such a configuration.
Sun. Then our solar panels receive much more energy. At this stage, our
descendants have evolved to a postbiological substrate and are able to live under
high temperatures. Still, the passive energy received (e.g. in the stellar wind) is not
enough to meet our ever growing energy needs, driven by computational or
technological progress. Stellar engineers set up the first active accretion from the
Sun. We have become starivores.
The Suns energy is used and transformed for building ever smaller and denser
organized forms. This goes on for hundreds, thousands, or millions of years.
Eventually, the Sun runs out of energy. Only then does it make sense to migrate to
the nearestpreferably singlestar, to feed on it. The density of the evolved
Earth is now comparable to that of a white dwarfwhich indeed are Earth-sized
and the new binary we form resembles a cataclysmic variable.
There is a lot of mass involved in a binary. Where does this mass come from? The
scenario above provides a possible answer. Recall that the maximum age of
extraterrestrials is 2 billion or more years more than ours. They might thus have
had plenty of time for complete depletion of the stellar energy of one or several
stars (if we include migration). However, more precise estimates need to be cal-
culated, taking into account accretion rates, to assess whether this scenario is
plausible.
It seems that our closest relative would be very low mass binaries. So we could
focus on searching for less advanced starivores. Not surprisingly, thanks to the
variety of binaries, we can find very low mass ones, such as LB 3459 (AA Dor) or
DN WZ Sge. Warner (1995, p. 452) writes about the latter:
Another possible origin of CV [cataclysmic variable] precursors is through engulfment of
a planet or very low mass star by expansion of a red giant. It is possible to find cir-
cumstances in which the planet will accrete sufficient gas to produce a low mass dwarf in a
short period orbit, perhaps resembling the DN WZ Sge (Livio 1982; Soker et al. 1984).
Another reply is that starivores are instances of life that has started on a planet
orbiting a binary system, and then gradually started to harness the energy of
naturally occurring accretion.
Earlier I introduced Eric Chaissons universal complexity metric (Sect. 7.2). Could
we apply it to binaries, to see how well they score? This is a research program well
worth pursuing on its own. It would be helpful to classify the putative starivore
family. However, we can already try to calculate the theoretical maximum power
density that a binary could achieve. In astrophysics, we can make a crude estimate
using the Eddington limit for luminosity (Frank et al. 2002, p. 3):
Now, how do actual white dwarfs, neutron stars and black holes score? Surpris-
ingly, their luminosity can break this limit! They are among the few systems that
display super-Eddington luminosity. The question of how a binary can break the
Eddington limit is difficult and technical.
Such values of power densities are extremely high for astrophysical systems.
Other astrophysical systems such as the Sun have a value *2 and planets have
*102. Higher values are otherwise known only for complex systems such as the
human body, for which UM * 2 9 104 erg s-1 g-1 (Chaisson 2001, p. 138).
Intrigued about these high values of UM, I wrote to Eric Chaisson because I
very much value this energy metric. I claimed that we may be dealing with an
anomaly in cosmic evolution. Although he admitted the high UM values of bina-
ries, he was rather skeptical about the ETI interpretation. His counterargument is
that such systems display unstable states, indicative of explosiveness and
destructiveness rather than constructive complexity. Indeed, supernovas, which are
definitely destructive processes, also display high UM values [106; (Chaisson
2001, p. 157)].
However, classical or recurrent novas, or jets emitted by neutron stars or black
holes, are not supernovas, and binary systems are not at all destroyed and generally
not even disturbed by such events. The case of recurrent novas is particularly clear:
even though the system undergoes impressive cataclysms, it does so recurrently,
on a regular basis.
In sum, we should remember that what we observe are gross systemic features,
and novas or jets are the products of the functioning of a hypothetical extruder
subsystem. Admittedly we do not observe any evidence of hypothesized
258 9 High Energy Astrobiology
A fridge is a very simple system, which can be argued to have some of the
qualities of life. As Freitas (1979, Sect. 6.2.3) writes:
The refrigerator in my house technically should be considered a live system in the very
broadest sense, as it is a well-defined intermediate system which uses an energy flow to
decrease entropy within (the icebox gets colder, and well-ordered ice crystals collect on
the freezer walls) at the expense of increasing the entropy in the external environment (the
kitchen air gets warmer). Yet its organizational structure is minimal.
9.6 Conclusion
In a 1972 NASA symposium titled Life beyond Earth and the mind of man,
Philip Morrison argued that the discovery of extraterrestrials will be a slow
development like agriculture, not a sudden surprise like America (see Dick 1996,
p. 506). The history of science supports this view. For example, Percival Lowell
elaborated a theory that the canals on Mars were artificial. In 1895, the issue of
natural or artificial canals was clearly formulated. However, as Dick (1996, p. 78)
reports:
Thrust into the open, an issue full of public interest, a golden opportunity now presented
itself for science either to confirm an earthshaking theory or to crush it quickly under the
glare of objective argument. To the dismay of the public and the embarrassment of
astronomers, science was unable to do either for almost two (some would say seven)
decades.
Let us hope that we shall do better and take less time to assess the starivore
hypothesis. In the meantime, from an ethical perspective it is not bad to assume
that we are alone. Indeed, as Davies ponders, this assumption behooves us to take
the greatest care of an incredible cosmic phenomenon: life on Earth. But of course
we should also prepare ourselves that recognizing our cosmic cousins will change
our science, philosophy, and religions forever.
Concluding his Critique of Practical Reason, Kant (1790) famously wrote that
two things fill the mind with ever new and increasing admiration and awe, the
oftener and the more steadily we reflect on them: the starry heavens above and the
moral law within. When I look at the starry heavens above, I see a dazzling
wealth of possible energy sources for our future use. We still need to learn how to
use them, and, more importantly, decide what to do with them. Can we combine
Kants two objects of reverence and develop a starry moral law within? Let us try
to do so in Chap. 10, with some reflections about a cosmological ethics.
Open Questions
and the other half for more advanced ETI. But even that is not enough, since we
saw that ETI may be on average 2 billion years older than us. So it would actually
make sense to spend much more in the search for advanced extraterrestrials.
The works of Dyson (1960) and Kardashev (1964) advanced the idea that
advanced extraterrestrials use much more energy than us. This is the assumption of
high energy astrobiology. The starivore hypothesis invites us to look back at high
energy astrophysics with a fresh astrobiological perspective. We already
encountered many open questions to test the hypothesis. Let us now summarize
and specify them to propose a high energy astrobiological agenda.
Many ideas in this chapter are necessarily highly speculative, for how else
could we approach a search for hypothetical ETI over a billion years more
advanced? Yet the hypothesis that some binary systems in accretion are ETIs is
testable. We have plenty of data about binaries, and we can gather more. This is to
be contrasted with other proposals, such as Dyson spheres or Bracewell probes,
which so far have no observational counterpart.
What is the ideal profile of the high energy astrobiologist? She is not swayed by
prejudices regarding artificiality or naturality of the gaps. Instead, she takes a more
careful astrobiological stance. She understands high energy astrophysics models
and theories. But she spends equal time with artificial and natural models to tackle
the so far poorly understood high energy phenomena in the cosmos. Furthermore,
her knowledge and interests extend to systems theory, living systems theory, and
the sciences of complexity. Other research interests may include biology and
ecology, especially general biological laws, and the field of energetics. Experts in
energetics would be able to take a fresh look at energy exchanges in binaries from
a more biologically inspired perspective.
General Agenda
radio pulsars known, only about 25 are extragalactic, all located in the nearby
dwarf galaxies of the Magellanic Clouds (McLaughlin and Cordes 2003, p. 983).
If density is an indicator of development, one prediction is that the proportion
of accreting WD/NS/BH decreases as we look at more distant galaxies. Is this so?
Are we ready to contact starivores? If we take the starivore hypothesis seri-
ously, communication with extraterrestrial intelligence (CETI) can raise its chance
of succeeding by targeting binary systems. Of course, huge ethical issues need to
be discussed before sending a signal to such highly advanced putative civiliza-
tions. Humanity should assess the riskbenefit tradeoff. The maximum risk is their
coming and destroying the Earth or the Sun. The maximum benefit is that they
collaborate fully with us, for example initiating us into the cosmic mysteries, and
boosting our evolutionary development incredibly thanks to their technology,
knowledge, and wisdom.
Research Proposals
Let us now turn to more concrete research proposals. Some of my readers may
think that it is easy and fun to speculate, but that we have done more science
fiction than science. They are partly right, and this is why it is essential to conduct
new research with actual data on binaries to assess their naturality or artificiality.
Below are the seeds of four scientific research proposals which, if successful,
will corroborate the existence of starivores. But only the last one promises to give
indisputable proof of extraterrestrial intelligence.
Are starivores protected from gamma-ray bursts? Such events are unusually vio-
lent, and a galactic gamma-ray burst could wipe out eukaryotes at a range of
14 kpc from the explosion (see Scalo and Wheeler 2002; and also Cirkovic et al.
2009). Long-lived civilizations would certainly anticipate such rare but possible
catastrophes. We should be able to show either that binaries are strongly disturbed,
dislocated, or destroyed by gamma ray bursts (which would tend to falsify the
starivore hypothesis) or that they are suprisingly robust to such disturbances
(which would tend to corroborate the starivore hypothesis).
future generations to assess whether this view is correct. As Dick (1996, pp. 12)
writes,
The whole thrust of physical science since the seventeenth-century scientific revolution
has been to demonstrate the role of physical law in the universe, a mission admirably
carried out by Kepler, Galileo, Newton, and their successors. The question at stake in the
extraterrestrial-life debate is whether an analogous biological law reigns throughout the
universe.
What other robust biological laws could be applied to binaries? Kleibers law
(Kleiber 1932) is the observation that in living organisms the metabolic rate scales
to the power of their mass. It is remarkable, because it holds over 16 orders of
magnitudealthough the scaling exponent changes slightly (see DeLong et al.
2010 for a recent review). This validity across so many scales suggests that it could
hold even for macroscopic living systems, such as cities (Isalgue et al. 2007) or
putative starivores. This law is illustrated in Fig. 9.14.
Does this law apply to transient accreting binaries? The hypothesis is that if
binaries are starivores, they should conform to this law. If not, it is less likely. How
can we test this? It is easy. We need to gather the relevant data for binaries. We
can simply interpret the accretion rate as a metabolic rate (both are energy flow
metrics) and plot the mass of the primary on the x-axis. Keplers law famously
applies to planets, but does Kleibers law apply to binaries?
This research program could also be coupled with a systematic calculation of
the free energy rate density complexity metric proposed by Chaisson. The only
additional parameter to take into consideration is the age of the system.
Scale relativity (see e.g. Nottale 2011) generates probability distributions for the
formation of gravitational structures. It gives probabilities to obtain single, double,
triple, or n-body systems. Preliminary results explain why pairs of galaxies are so
common (Nottale 2011, pp. 654658).
This project consists in applying scale relativity to the formation of binary
systems. If binaries are starivores, the prediction of scale relativity should fail. In
particular, we should observe more binary systems than would result from natural
gravitational formation. Or there should be proportionally fewer pairs of galaxies
than binary systems. However, the picture could be more complicated if putative
starivores migrate and leave single depleted stars.
Furthermore, applying the inverse distance-development principle, ever more
remote galaxies should fit ever more closely the predictions of scale relativity. Of
course, this project represents a lot of work, but it is a global approach which, even
if it ends up dismissing the starivore hypothesis, would teach us a lot about star
formation.
264 9 High Energy Astrobiology
Fig. 9.14 Relationship between whole organism metabolic rate and body mass for heterotrophic
prokaryotes, protists, and metazoans plotted on logarithmic axes (DeLong et al. 2010, p. 12942)
Pulsars Decoding
Finally and most importantly, a convincing proof of ETI should include infor-
mation processing. This is why I insisted that the assessment of whether there are
messages in pulsars should be a priority (see Sect. 9.4.6). Decoding an extrater-
restrial message will certainly be an amazingly difficult task. But a first easier step
is to assess whether pulses display informational complexity. This can be evalu-
ated using Kolmogorov complexity (e.g. Li and Vitnyi 1997) or logical depth
(Bennett 1988a, b). Pulsars signals could be benchmarked against natural signals
(e.g. sea waves) and artificial signals (e.g. wi-fi). If they scored like sea waves,
they would more likely be natural; if they scored like a wi-fi signal, they would
more likely be artificial.
Open Questions 265
After examination by a scientific jury, the Evo Devo Universe (EDU) community
will be happy to award a 500 euro High Energy Astrobiology Prize for the first
peer-reviewed paper on any of these projects (gamma-ray bursts and binaries,
Kleibers law, scale relativity and binaries, assessing or decoding the informational
complexity of pulsar pulses). The prize will of course be awarded for either a
positive or a negative result. New research proposals to test all the ways there
could be intelligence in interacting binaries are also most welcome. If you would
like to contribute but do not have the scientific expertise to do so, we welcome
donations to make the high energy astrobiology prize even more attractive. For
more details, visit:
http://www.highenergyastrobiology.com/theprize.htm
Chapter 10
Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
Abstract Most ethical principles, religious or not, are based on wisdom acquired
over a few millennia. This may seem a long time, but even millennia are insig-
nificant in a cosmological perspective. The field of evolutionary ethics makes a big
leap by embracing evolutionary time scales (millions of years). Can we continue to
extend our ethical reflections, principles, and theories up to the 13.8 billion years
of cosmic evolution? What is the ultimate good in the universe? Evolutionary
ethics concludes that survival is the most important value. But survival of what,
and for how long? How can we aim for infinite survival, that is, for immortality?
We first outline thermodynamic values, which are truly universal because they
depend only on the concept of energy. We criticize the naturalistic fallacy and
then, inspired by Aristotles theory of moral virtues, we outline evolutionary trade-
offs (egoismaltruism, stabilityadaptability, specialistgeneralist, exploration
exploitation, competitioncooperation, and r-K selection) and hence a theory of
evolutionary virtues. However, evolutionary values are insufficient for ethical
purposes, since they give insights into how to adapt to any circumstance, for any
purpose. To remedy this limitation, we outline developmental values for indi-
viduals (e.g. cognitive and moral development); developmental values for societies
(e.g. increased rationality and decreased violence). Thermodynamic, evolutionary,
and developmental values promise to be robust ethical principles, because they
have been proven through the wisdom of billions of years of cosmic evolution. As
an application, we examine the age-old will to immortality and propose a voyage
to five kinds of immortality: spiritual, individual, creative, evolutionary, and
cosmological. We conclude that the ultimate good is the infinite continuation of the
evolutionary process.
To romance of the far future, then, is to attempt to see the human race in its cosmic setting,
and to mould our hearts to entertain new values.
From the preface of Stapledons (1931) Last and First Men
Until now our intellectual journey has been mainly descriptive and critical,
exploring hypotheses for tackling issues such as the beginning of the universe and
C. Vidal, The Beginning and the End, The Frontiers Collection, 267
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1_10, Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014
268 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
Table 10.1 Time scales in human thought (adapted from Dick 2009a, p. 464)
Scale Duration
Human 100 years
Historical 10,000 years
Evolutionary 10 million years
Geological 5 billion years
Cosmological 13.8 billion years
Since it is difficult for humans to appreciate orders of magnitude greater than historical, see also
the Chronozoom project for a dynamical view of time scales: http://www.chronozoomproject.org/
scenarios for its long-term future. In order to aim as much as possible for a
comprehensive worldview, we need to address the issue of values, or the nor-
mative dimension of philosophy I identified in Chap. 1. This is what we shall
explore now. As usual, our scope in spacetime is maximal, that is, cosmological.
We are thus interested in values general enough to hold for cosmological scales.
Philosopher Bahm (1980, p. 4) dubbed the science inquiring into the ultimate
values of life as a whole religiology. This science concerns the ultimate value of
life and how to find it, preserve it, and enjoy it. The neologism is logical because
answering such questions is traditionally a religious endeavor. But it need not be.
Values and ethics can be built without relying on God or revelations (see e.g.
Nielsen 1973; Jantsch 1980, p. 264). Actually, human ethical principles, religious
or not, are based on the historical wisdom of a few millennia, which is totally
insignificant from a cosmological perspective. We need to increase the scope of
our thinking toward the cosmological scale (see Table 10.1).
Evolutionary ethics (see e.g. Ridley 1997; Wilson 1998) encompasses millions
of years, a remarkable thousandfold advance compared to history-based ethics. A
major insight of evolutionary ethics is that our existing beliefs, motivations, and
values have no special or universal validity. They have been selected via past
evolutionary needs (Stewart 2000, p. 16).
Yet evolutionary ethics is insufficient if we are concerned about cosmological
timescales. The origin of human nature is not our central concern here, as it is in
evolutionary ethics (see e.g. the excellent books of Wright 1994; Waal 1996;
Ridley 1997). From a cosmological perspective, human nature is but one step in
cosmic evolution. I am interested in an ethical system that can also survive evo-
lution before and beyond humanity. I thus focus in this chapter on the next
thousandfold advance from evolutionary to cosmological ethics. As Stapledon
wrote above when prefacing his science fiction novel, such thinking opens the
possibility of deciphering new values. Romance is one approach, but not the only
one. Here I shall stay within the rational tradition of science and philosophy.
When I tell friends or colleagues that I am busy with cosmological issues, they
often do not understand why or how I could seriously care about such a far future.
My best reply is to draw an analogy. We are definitely growing in our global
awareness and are becoming aware of as well as worried about global economic,
ecological, or climatological problems concerning the Earth as a whole.
10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality 269
We also do care for phenomena beyond planet Earth. As you read these lines,
scientists are monitoring the nearest star, our Sun. Indeed, tracking solar weather is
critical to protect our electrical and communication networks. The famous solar
storm of 1859 was so powerful that it created auroras all around the world, so
bright they even woke up gold miners during the night. The consequences of such
a solar storm today would be billions of dollars worth of damage to satellites,
power grids, and radio communications (see e.g. Odenwald and Green 2008). So
increasing our cosmological awareness is not just an intellectual curiosity. A solar
storm is just one example of a global catastrophic risk (see contributions in Bo-
strom and Cirkovic 2008 for more examples).
The more we progress in our understanding of the universe, the more global our
awareness becomes. Russell (1982, p. 83) remarked that life forms build ever more
extended models of their environment. As he wrote, an important characteristic
attributed to conscious beings is the ability to form internal models of the world
they experience; the greater the consciousness the more complex the models.
This activity of model building is actually necessary for regulating the environ-
ment efficiently (Conant and Ashby 1970). But why should modeling stop at planet
Earth? From a cosmological perspective, it occupies a tiny piece of space. And
what is the limit to the process of model building? We saw (Sect. 6.3 and Chap. 7)
that it is with models of our universe and other possible universes.
In this cosmological context, what are the ultimate values of intelligence? What
is the ultimate good for intelligent life in the universe? Evolutionary ethics con-
cludes that it is survival. But this almost trivial statement raises two questions.
First, survival of what? Myself? My family? My culture? My planet? The solar
system? Our galaxy? The universe? Second, survival for how long? For human,
historical, evolutionary, geological, or cosmological timescales? Ethical theories
aim at producing good results (Bahm 1953, p. 310). But good for whom? For
oneself, for others, for God, for the best people, for most people, for higher
principles such as justice or the process of evolution? Could we and should we
integrate goodness for these different options?
I argue in this chapter that the ultimate good is the infinite continuation of the
evolutionary process. The ultimate good is an essential component of ethical
theories and is also called summum bonum, supreme good, supreme goal, supreme
value, or highest good (Adler 1985, p. 478a). I answer survival of what? with
the evolutionary process; and survival for how long? with no less than
infinitely. This is in line with the Principia Cybernetica Project, for which
Heylighen et al. (1993) wrote:
Thus we can from there derive the ultimate good as the continuation of the process of
evolution itself, in the negative sense of avoiding evolutionary dead ends and general
extinction, in the positive sense of constantly increasing our fitness, and thus our intelli-
gence, degree of organization and general mastery over the universe.
Prigogine wanted the entropy ethics to be taught to children all over the planet
(Hammond 2005, p. v, preface to the Eulogy Edition)
As Hammond argues in his (2005) book, entropy ethics brings important insights
to children all over the planet, but also all over the universe.
Is there a way to think about universal values from an energetic perspective? If
organisms develop new ways to extract energy, they will have resources to
increase their complexity and thus become fitter. The engineering of new ways to
extract energy constitutes a fundamental step in major evolutionary transitions (see
e.g. Aunger 2007a). In the modern evolutionary picture, Corning (2005) also
insists on the importance of thermoeconomics in the Darwinian synthesis. But
what does it means for ethics? How should we best extract, use, store, and dis-
tribute energy? To answer these questions, we need an ethics based on energy
exchange, i.e. based on thermodynamics.
What is the underlying principle of entropy ethics? It is the need to learn to
utilize energy efficiently to bring about order in the environment (Hammond
2005, p. 67). First, we need to distinguish two entropies, informational and
thermodynamic. Informational entropy has to do with statistics and order in any
system. Thermodynamic entropy has to do with heat and energy. The expression
entropy ethics can be confusing because entropy can be informational or
thermodynamic. The two corresponding ethics are infoethics (Floridi 2008) and
thermoethics (Freitas 1979, Sect. 25.1.3). Let us outline their core principles.
Floridi (2008, pp. 5859) proposed four principles as the foundation of infoethics:
We can illustrate principle (0) with email spam, which creates disorder or
entropy in our mailboxes. Antivirus software is faithful to principle (1) because it
prevents information destruction on our hard drives from malicious software.
Examples of applying principle (2) include removing and correcting false state-
ments in Wikipedia; or cleaning and merging databases, which are good actions
bringing more order, less redundancy, and more integration in the infosphere.
Principle (3) is less objective, but can be related to valuing creativity at large.
272 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
Although Freitas coined the term thermoethics, its origin can be traced back to
Wilhelm Ostwald, Nobel prizewinner in chemistry in 1909. Ostwald (1912;
translated by Bayliss 1915, p. 28) advanced the thermodynamic imperative:
Waste not free energy; treasure it and make the best use of it.
We can derive a lot of value from this seemingly trivial principle. On the
negative side, it means that we should avoid randomizing actions that lead to
confusion, conflict, or chaos. For example, killing is clearly bad because it is the
destruction of a trillion-cell organization. Burning libraries is also a very
destructive and bad act, because it destroys knowledge accumulated by a civili-
zation. The thermodynamic imperative is implicitly applied in most businesses. If
a firm can do the same amount of work with less energy, it will outcompete others.
The same holds in biological evolution. The capacity to extract efficiently energy
from the environment is absolutely crucial to stay fit.
Hammond also contrasts making random noise with the orderly coordination of
an orchestra. The one produces stressful activation patterns on human brains, while
the other can provoke aesthetic experiences and highly coherent brainwaves. Of
course, this does not prevent modern artists from changing and challenging the
rules and creating pseudo-random works in order to trigger negative emotions and
feelings.
Why is thermoethics so fundamental? Because it makes no assumption about
the substrate of living systems to which it applies. It is thus valid not only for
humans and animals but also for posthumans and postbiological or even extra-
terrestrial life. Freitas (1979, Sect. 25.1.3) proposed a similar principal
thermoethic:
[A]ll living beings should always act so as to minimize the total entropy of the universe, or
so as to maximize the total negentropy.
Freitas explains that living beings should always act to further the mission of
life in the cosmos, which is to reduce the universe to order by building the
maximum complexity into the mass-energy available. He summarizes three
thermoethical duties, to avoid harming, to preserve, and to create, which indeed
10.1 Thermodynamic Values 273
are very similar to the infoethics principles of Floridi. A corollary of the ther-
moethical principal is what Freitas calls the Corollary of Negentropic Equality:
All entities of equal negentropy have equal rights and responsibilities; the more negen-
tropic an entity, the greater are its rights and the deeper are its responsibilities. (See Cocca
1962; Fasan 1968, 1970; Haley 1963, 1956; Nicolson 1978; Rhyne 1958.)
system really become more thermoethical than the one currently being destroyed?
The prospect of regression is not excluded. Thermoethics is universal and there-
fore sometimes difficult to translate into more precise and concrete ethical prin-
ciples. Let us now explore insights from evolutionary theory and developmental
trends to enrich our cosmological ethics.
If, even in the long run, ethical behavior were self-defeating, eventually we would not call
it ethical, but foolish.
(Sagan 1997, p. 218)
It is hard to begin evolutionary ethics without tackling the critique of the natu-
ralistic fallacy. This states that we cannot derive an ought from an is. In other
words, the normative and descriptive dimensions of philosophizing are
unbridgeable (see also the is-ought test, Sect. 2.3.2). Although the identification of
the fallacy is often attributed to Moore (1903), he did not actually claim that we
cannot derive an ought from an is. He was concerned with the distinctiveness
of the content of ethical judgments (see the introduction by Thomas Baldwin in
Moore 1993, p. xviii). So it is better to trace it back to its source, Humes classic
work, A Treatise of Human Nature (1739, Book III, Part I. 1). Although Humes
position is indeed that we cannot derive moral judgments from reason alone, he is
chiefly criticizing that moral philosophers slip from is to ought without
justification.
Let us give two examples of deriving moral judgments from natural facts. First,
Spencer (1851, p. 324) was inspired by the functioning of the natural world to
harshly criticize social thinkers who advocate a protective law for the poor:
Blind to the fact, that under the natural order of things society is constantly excreting its
unhealthy, imbecile, slow, vacillating, faithless members, these unthinking, though well-
meaning, men advocate an interference which not only stops the purifying process, but
even increases the vitiationabsolutely encourages the multiplication of the reckless and
incompetent by offering them an unfailing provision, and discourages the multiplication of
the competent and provident by heightening the prospective difficulty of maintaining a
family. And thus, in their eagerness to prevent the really salutary sufferings that surround
us, these sigh-wise and groan-foolish people bequeath to posterity a continually increasing
curse.
naturalistic fallacy would seem politically incorrect even in the most radical
ideologies. Maybe not all, since Adolf Hitler (cited in Weinberg 2003, p. 21)
would agree:
The abandonment of sick, frail, deformed children in other words, their destruction
demonstrated greater human dignity and was in reality a thousand times more humane
than the pathetic insanity of our time, which attempts to preserve the lives of the sickest
subjects at any price while taking the lives of a hundred thousand healthy children
through a decrease in the birth rate or through abortifacient agents, subsequently breeding
a race of degenerates burdened with illness.
Table 10.2 According to Aristotle, moral virtues fall at the mean between two accompanying
vices
Vice of deficiency Virtuous mean Vice of excess
Cowardice Courage Rashness
Insensibility Temperance Intemperance
Illiberality Liberality Prodigality
Pettiness Munificence Vulgarity
Humble-mindedness High-mindedness Vainglory
Want of ambition Right ambition Excessive ambition
Lack of spirit Good temper Irascibility
Surliness Friendly civility Obsequiousness
Ironical depreciation Sincerity Boastfulness
Boorishness Wittiness Buffoonery
Shamelessness Modesty Bashfulness
Callousness Just resentment Spitefulness
That organisms strive to survive is a truism. But some organisms help others to
survive, and this is a puzzle for evolutionary biologists. The competition induced
by natural selection selects the fittest individuals, regardless of what happens to
others. But some behaviors increase the fitness of others and decrease the fitness of
the actor. It is a challenge for evolutionary theorists to put forth mechanisms
explaining how such behavior can evolve (see e.g. Sober and Wilson 1998).
We shall not tackle the controversies surrounding this question. We shall
mention that multiple-level selection theory is a promising way to resolve it (see
e.g. Wilson and Sober 1994). The main idea is to look at the actions of natural
selection not only at the genetic level, but at other smaller or bigger units of
selection such as molecules, cells, individuals, groups, or species.
Let us simply point out here the trade-off between egoism and altruism. If an
individual is too egoistic, she will have few chances to be integrated into a larger
group. If he is too altruistic while giving and getting nothing in return, his own
benefit and survival might suffer. It seems therefore that a mean has to be found.
There are many possible middle grounds. The first is kin selection, where altruistic
behavior is only displayed toward ones own group and not other groups. For
example, ants do help each other but dont help worms.
If we aim at a universal ethics, extrapolating our increasing awareness and
compassion, we should arrive at a point where we consider elementary particles
and stardust as part of our cosmological group. The general trend would be to
enlarge our circle of compassion to become altruistic at ever higher levels. But the
hope that such a disinterested moral sentiment would emerge spontaneously is
naive. A more pragmatic form of altruism is reciprocal altruism, or the more
10.2 Evolutionary Values 277
general tit-for-tat rule. Its essence is to avoid blind altruism. An individual will
first be altruistic (cooperate), then subsequently replicate an opponents previous
action. It is intuitively fair and indeed an excellent evolutionary strategy. We shall
come back to it when discussing the competitioncooperation trade-off.
Evolution stabilizes what works and adapts what doesnt. Let us say a few words
about values associated with stability and adaptability.
A systems stability amounts to its internal or intrinsic fitness. For example, an
organism has an intrinsic stability and capacity for (re)production. The related
human values are equilibrium, robustness, strength, durability, autonomy, or
health. Such an increase in internal fitness requires the system to increase bonds
and linkages between its different parts. As Heylighen (1997b, 1999) argues, this is
accompanied by an increase of structural complexity.
However, building and reinforcing what is already there is a conservative
strategy. If others are progressing and getting better at extracting resources in new
creative ways, too much stability will prove unfit.
Adaptability values relate to the capacity to cope with specific environmental
perturbations or make use of changing external resources. In humans, wealth is
typically a measure of access to external resources. But adaptability values or the
general adaptation to the environment also include variation, innovation, explo-
ration, experimentation, diversity, growth, and (re)production. A question natu-
rally arises: For how long are we trying to adapt? Again, when our self and
awareness grow, we are more and more inclined to increase the adaptability of
larger systems (family, company, nation, humanity, the ecosystem, the Earth or the
universe).
This inclination emerges not only out of altruistic motives, but also out of a
concern for longer-term adaptability, since when our awareness of interconnec-
tedness increases, our care for external fitness increases accordingly. We strive to
fit in with a greater whole and to make it fitter.
As a system becomes more and more adaptive, it increases the variety of
environmental perturbations that it can deal with, and this irreversibly increases its
functional complexity. Heylighen (1999) elaborates:
All other things being equal, a system that can survive situations A, B and C, is absolutely
fitter than a system that can only survive A and B. Such an increase in absolute fitness is
necessarily accompanied by an increase in functional complexity. Thus, evolution will
tend to irreversibly produce increases of functional complexity.
There are two ways to adapt and become fitter. First, an organism can become a
specialist by adapting itself uniquely to a narrow environmental niche. For
example, Morgans sphinx moth uses a long tongue specifically adapted to pol-
linate and feed from the comet orchid found only in Madagascar. Darwin and
Wallace predicted the existence of such an insect with a long tongue when they
discovered the peculiar orchid. The moth was later discovered. The moth is fit
because it is the only organism adapted to this flower.
Second, the generalist is fit because it can adapt to very different niches. For
example in human societies, doctors, engineers, or scientists can be generalists or
specialists. Generalists and specialists make their evolutionary way differently.
are limited, those organisms that can make the most of available resources will
survive and reproduce more successfully and hence be fitter than others.
The disadvantage of competition is that the more energy organisms invest in
outcompeting the competition, the less remains for growth, reproduction, or higher
purposes. The mentality behind competition is a primitive one that game theorists
call win-lose. In competition, I win, you lose; or if you prefer, you win, I lose.
The trade-off between competition and cooperation is also well studied in
human organizations. Khanna et al. (1998) have argued that as a company focuses
on egoisitic (private) benefits at the expense of altruistic (common) benefits, it
tends to be more competitive. The interesting challenge is to find a balance
between the two. We find that this trade-off is also related to the egoismaltruism
trade-off.
In the outdated evolutionary picture, evolution is a merciless process where all
that matters is this competition for survival. But this view is too limited, because
those who win the competition in the long term are those who cooperate (see e.g.
Axelrod 1984; Wright 2000; Stewart 2000).
Cooperation is more commonly referred to as mutuality in biology. Ecologist
Ulanowicz (2009, p. 75) turned competition and mutuality upside down, arguing
that mutuality is essential and competition is derivative from it. Indeed, mutuality
is the platform from which competition can launch: without mutuality at some
lower level, competition at higher levels simply cannot occur. For example, the
reason one rodent is able to strive against its competitors is that any individual
animal is a walking orgy of mutual benefaction (May 1981, p. 95) within itself.
So, what are the advantages of cooperation? First, it allows greater cooperative
systems to emerge. Second, the underlying value system is winwin where both
partiesor moreprofit. The winwin game can be between two individuals (i.e.
we both win) or between two levels (e.g. my individual benefit and our societal
benefit). Such mutuality or cooperation is becoming ever more possible and
suitable in our information society, because informational resources are non-rival.
If I forward a paper to a colleague, I dont lose the paper. The costs in matter-
energy are negligible compared to an economic transfer based on matter-energy,
where if we want to share a piece of bread, we cant multiply it (without help).
Matter-energy exchanges are thus rival. Still, information exchanges do have an
energy cost, which becomes ever more apparent as we exponentially increase our
information processing.
What are the disadvantages of cooperation? There are at least two. First, the
danger of cooperation is that it can freeze competition, and thus novelty and
adaptability. For example, phone companies cooperate when they agree to impose
high prizes on the market. The cooperation is between companies, not between
companies and end-users. This limited cooperation at one hierarchical level is
detrimental to another level, the end-user. This is why societies have competition
laws (or antitrust law) to make sure that market competition endures. So it is
necessary not only to promote cooperation but also to specify who should coop-
erate with whom or to balance cooperation with competition.
280 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
Table 10.3 Rules to live by inspired by and adapted from (Sagan 1997, p. 228)
Rule Description
The Golden rule Do unto others as you would have them do unto you
The Silver rule Do not do unto others what you would not have them do unto you
The Platinum Do unto others as they would like done unto them
rule
The Brazen rule Do unto others as they do unto you
The Zinc rule Do unto others as they would like done unto them to reward them; or as they
would not like done unto them to punish them
The Iron rule Do unto others as you like, before they do it unto you
The Tin rule Do the Golden rule to superiors, do as you like to others (Iron rule)
The Kin rule Do the Golden rule to close relatives, do as you like to others (Iron rule)
The Reciprocal Do the Golden rule to others, then do unto them as they do unto you (Brazen
rule rule), but stop cooperation if they do not reciprocate
The Tit-for-tat Do the Golden rule to others, then do unto them as they do unto you (Brazen
rule rule) and try again cooperation (forgive)
Note that we could group similar rules: Golden, Silver and Platinum; Brazen and Zinc; Tin and
Kin; Reciprocal and Tit-for-tat
Second, what if the other party wants to profit from my cooperative attitude?
What should I do? Sagan (1997, Chap. 16) did a great service to ethics when he
clearly summarized popular rules to live by that are valued worldwide (see
Table 10.3 summarizing what follows). Let us describe these rules, in order to
better understand the need for cooperative ones.
The famous Golden rule of behavior is attributed to Jesus. In the Bible version
it says: Do unto others as you would have them do unto you (Matthew 7: 12). The
problem is that it takes no account of human differences. For example, should the
masochist inflict pain on his neighbor? If he did so, he would be faithfully applying
the Golden rule.
The negative formulation of the rule is called the Silver rule and is a restrictive
rule, because it tells you what not to do, but not what to do. Its formulation by
Confucius (Analects 15:23) says: Do not do unto others what you would not have
them do unto you. This version is also known worldwide, from the writings of
Hillel the Elder to Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr. But the same critique of
human differences applies. By inflicting pleasure on a masochist, I might do her no
good. Those two rules would thus benefit from taking into account the needs of the
neighbor before their practical application. Otherwise they lack empathy.
We thus need to Do unto others as they would like done unto them (Alessandra
1996). In other words, we should treat others in the way they like to be treated, and
not just to apply our values blindly unto others. Now, thanks to this Platinum rule,
the masochists can be happy.
But enough of lofty and indulgent rules. What do we do when someone is
repeatedly violent? What if what she really wants is to hurt us? Should we just be
empathic and sacrifice ourselves? Confucius replies that we should repay evil
with justice, and kindness with kindness (Analects 14: 36). Sagan calls thus the
10.2 Evolutionary Values 281
Brazen rule: Do unto others as they do unto you. In the Bible, it is the lex talionis
an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth combined with the proverb one good
turn deserves another. The Brazen rule contrasts with the Golden, Silver, and
Platinum rules because it is also retaliatory. When the interactions are positive,
such as lovers offering each others nicer and nicer presents, very well! But the
Brazen rule also fuels the negative fire of endless vengeance. The Brazen rule
cruelly lacks forgiveness.
The Brazen rule can be made more generous or tougher. It just needs to include
empathy or the insight of the Platinum rule. It then becomes what I call the Zinc
rule: Do unto others as they would like done unto them to reward them; or as they
would not like done unto them to punish them.
Sagan also describes three other widely applied rules of behavior. The first is
the Iron rule, which is the opposite philosophy to that of the Golden rule. It says:
Do unto others as you like, before they do it unto you. It is a rule of the powerful,
also known as he who has the gold makes the rules.
The other rule widely found in nature illustrates a submission and dominance
game. It says Do the Golden rule to superiors, the Iron rule to inferiors. Sagan
calls this bullying rule the Tin rule, because it is an alloy between the Golden and
the Iron rule.
In nature we also find the Kin rule, which says: Do the Golden rule to close
relatives, do as you like to others. It is a Golden rule selectively applied to ones
kin, with the Iron rule for the rest. It is thus a rule for nepotism.
Let us now summarize the pros and cons of the different rules. The Golden,
Silver, and Platinum rules are too complacent, unable to punish cruelty and
exploitation. The Brazen and Zinc rules are too unforgiving, while the Iron rule is
clearly not applicable by everyone and will fail when encountering a superior
other. The Tin rule is smarter in this respect, but runs the risks of retaliation from
the inferiors, if for whatever reason they become superiors. The kin rule promotes
the survival and benefit of the group, but is by definition not scalable. So, can we
combine the different rules to still better ones?
There are three types of games we can play, win-lose, lose-lose, or winwin.
Sagan notes that most of the competitive games we play, such as Monopoly,
boxing, football, hockey, basketball, baseball, tennis, chess, or party politics, are
win-lose, because only one party can win while the other loses. In such games,
there is room only for the Iron and the Tin rules. Loselose games such as nuclear
war or economic depression are even worse because all parties lose. The Iron and
Tin rules focus only on playing such win-lose or lose-lose games. But we should
emphasize that the most important and fruitful games in life are winwin, and are
essential to making love, friendship, business, parenthood, music, art, and science
flourish.
Game theory studies these three kinds of games. It is not only the formal and
theoretical science behind strategic decision making but also has an experimental
aspect. Sociologist Axelrod (1984) organized a computer tournament to find out
which rules were winning in a repeated prisoners dilemma game (if you are not
familiar with this game, see e.g. the summary of Sagan 1997, pp. 225229). It is
282 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
clear that players using the Golden rule will tend to be exploited by the Iron rule
players. Both rules give rise to winlose games, and thus the players will tend to
annihilate themselves. The survivors are the winwin players.
A promising rule for playing a winwin game is widely found in nature as
reciprocal altruism. We can formulate the rule as the Reciprocal rule: Do the
Golden rule to others, then do unto them as they do unto you (Brazen rule), but
stop cooperation if they do not reciprocate. It is a very smart rule because you
dont let people take advantage of you, yet you seek cooperation with everyone
and not only with your kin. However, the cooperation will tend to be restricted to
agents who reciprocate in the first place. What if the other player is not inclined to
reciprocate right from the start? A broader, more forgiving rule is needed.
This leads us to the Tit-for-tat rule, which states: Do the Golden rule to others,
then do unto them as they do unto you (Brazen rule) and try again cooperation
(forgive). This rule has proven very robust and won the game-theoretical tourna-
ment. As Axelrod (1984, p. 54) concludes:
What accounts for Tit-for-tats robust success is its combination of being nice, retaliatory,
forgiving and clear. Its niceness prevents it from getting into unnecessary trouble. Its
retaliation discourages the other side from persisting whenever defection is tried. Its
forgiveness helps restore mutual cooperation. And its clarity makes it intelligible to the
other player, thereby eliciting long-term cooperation.
10.2.8 Discussion
how to adapt to any circumstances, for any purpose. So it is easy to use and abuse
those values to reach any objective. As with any powerful tool, there are good or
bad applications of evolutionary principles. Furthermore, even balancing a
particular trade-off properly is not enough. We need to make explicit the level of
selection we want to promote. Am I trying to increase the fitness of my body or my
society? We certainly also need to trade off the different levels of selection. For
example, I agree to pay taxes if the government pays to build roads.
By contrast with Aristotles theory of virtue, the attitude of finding a mean
between each trade-off is not necessarily the smartest one. There are extreme
environments or situations where it may be better or necessary to be totally
altruistic, maximally explorative, etc. We could thus propose a rule of metadap-
tation, adapting each evolutionary trade-off depending on the environmental sit-
uation. This remains of course very pragmatic.
One critique of evolutionary ethics is that it may provide necessary knowledge
to build an ethics, but it is insufficient (Gewirth 1993). We are evolved beings who
can make free choices, often constrained by our evolutionary past, but not always.
What we choose is not always in line with basic evolutionary principles. We have
the power and freedom to choose to go against evolution. For example, in
developed countries, under certain conditions, one can choose euthanasia, abor-
tion, or open homosexuality.
Interestingly, these three choices are morally wrong in conservative societies.
Indeed, they go most clearly against the most primitive evolutionary values of
survival and reproduction.
Only in a more global societal or cultural context can they make sense. What is
the meaning of struggling to keep alive a 95-year-old man in a coma, at a cost of
several 1,000 euro per day for palliative care? What sense does it make to have a
child resulting from a rape when one is a 14-year-old girl still going to school?
What is the big deal about being homosexual and having no children, given that
that there are more than 7 billion humans on Earth? Should societies not push
forward and further develop the rights to euthanasia, abortion, or homosexuality?
The reasoning is tempting, but the problem is of course to set boundaries.
Euthanasia or abortion are not decisions to be taken lightly, and indeed countries
that permit it still strictly regulate those practices. They may be arguably ethical if
they contribute to evolution on a greater scale, contributing to social progress. But
what do we mean with the notion of progress?
In fact, as Nitecki (1993, p. 15) argues, we cant answer ethical questions
without a notion of progress:
We believe in correctness of ethical prescriptions only when we see that there will be, or
is, progress in human behavior. Thus evolutionary ethics has an unspoken, and hidden,
claim to a meaning or a direction to biological process. Since, according to evolutionary
ethicists, natural selection is responsible for morality, the more moral will be selected, and
hence there is progress in morality. If evolutionary biology rejects progress then it must
also reject evolutionary ethics. Just as to remain alive requires regeneration, or repair, so
evolutionary ethics requires progress. Progress is a process that produces improvement. It
is a process that must continue and cannot end. By definition, the process that ends, dies.
10.2 Evolutionary Values 285
Thus progress reflects the drama of the evolutionary intellectual, who must either accept
evolutionary ethics and progress or must reject bothto many of us a difficult choice.
Evolutionary values are thus more the basis of a praxeology, a theory of action,
rather than an axiology, a theory of values. We need clearer goals, values, pur-
poses, directions, or ideas of progress if we aim for a normative ethics. Where do
we want to go with these evolutionary strategies and management of trade-offs? Or
maybe evolution already shows some general trends that we could benefit from
following. The tit-for-tat rule showed that cooperation pays in the long term, which
is a remarkable and promising result.
To go further, we need broader insights into evolutionary theory, namely into
the direction of evolution. Evolution and development go hand in hand, but
developmental values are more promising than evolutionary ones because devel-
opment implies a direction. Let us briefly examine developmental values in
humans and societies, with a possible extrapolation to the universe.
As organisms grow in complexity, they become more and more goal-directed and
therefore can be modeled as cybernetic systems. They are able to choose which
goal to pursue, to compare alternative courses of actions, to remember patterns that
do or do not work, that is, to learn. So we can legitimately extend evolutionary
values to cybernetic values. Such values are essential for a goal-directed system to
survive. For example, homeostatic animals are able to control and maintain their
temperature. But such control mechanisms are more effective if the system has
reserves or buffers, such as a fair amount of fator provisions in the refrigerator.
An effective cybernetic system also values the power of observation (input
sensitivity of its receptors) in order to better anticipate the environment. A blind
animal will have poor chances of survival in the wild. Once a system makes
accurate observations, it should also be able to store its experiences and process
new inputs through an intelligent mechanism (such as a neural network), thereby
displaying knowledge and intelligence.
The system should also be able to act with sufficient power, using energy
through its effectors. An animal seeing a predator coming, but mute and limbless
or crippled (cruelly lacking effectors) would be useless and hopeless due to its
inability to raise the alarm, fight, or flee.
286 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
As intelligence and knowledge increase, the menu of possible actions and goals
grows too. It becomes more and more difficult to choose what to do. In our
information-overloaded society this is a serious problem, and we need to have
insight into our own goals or preferences to make our way. Two core cybernetic
principles are needed to steer a complex system. The first is feedforward, which
consists in proactive anticipation of a future course of action. Unfortunately, in a
complex environment such anticipation is not always possible, and systems are
easier to regulate using the second principle, feedback mechanisms.
Positive feedback helps in choosing goals by overcoming choice paralysis. For
example, in the classical Buridans ass dilemma, an ass is equally hungry and
thirsty, has water and hay at its disposal, but is unable to choose which to drink or
eat first, and tragically dies from hunger and thirst. Philosophers like to discuss this
thought experiment, but from a cognitive point of view it is unlikely to happen.
The brain functions with positive feedback mechanisms, and the ass need only
look for one millisecond longer at the water to trigger neural activation that will
make it decide to drink first, and momentarily inhibit its hunger.
Cybernetic values provide a great addition to evolutionary values because they
promote values that enhance not only survival and reproduction but also control,
observation, knowledge, intelligence, and effective action. The richness and
effectiveness of cybernetic values are impressive. A cybernetic philosophy of time
could be:
Learn from the past,
Be in the present,
Predict the future.
This means acknowledging lessons from past events (feedback); dealing with
present events in the present (effective action); and anticipating future events as
best we can (feedforward and model making).
But let us keep a macroscopic perspective. Is there a general direction or a
developmental pattern in evolution that could help us build a normative ethics?
This is what we now examine.
Weikart (2009, p. 16) adds that Hitler thought that by killing certain people he
could improve the moral stature of humanity. Thus he committed some of the
worst atrocities in world history in the name of morality. Weikart argues that
Hitlers political program was actually based on a consistent and stable evolu-
tionary ethics throughout his career. However, Weikarts work is highly contro-
versial since he explicitly avoided political, social, psychological, and economic
factors that may have played key roles in the post-Darwinian development of Nazi
eugenics and racism (see e.g. Gooday et al. 2008; Richards 2012, 2013 for cri-
tiques). Also, Weikarts study is not academically neutral, as he is a senior fellow
at the Discovery Institute, which promotes intelligent design and creationism.
Nevertheless, the notion of progress may have played a role in Nazi policy, and
it remains essential to define, debate, and criticize it in any evolutionary ethics.
In fact, Hitler and his contemporaries had a limited and incorrect picture of
evolution. Hitlers evolutionary picture is outdated. Today, all biologists would see
it nave to strive towards the biological uniformity of the Aryan race instead of
valuing diversity at the human species level, nave to believe that moral character
is biologically inherited, and nave to think that the best way to improve humanity
is by manipulating its genetic foundation. On the last point, evolutionary theorists
agree that genetic change is slow compared to cultural change. Therefore, it makes
much more sense to attempt to change culture by fostering creativity, innovation,
and education rather than changing genomes.
But there is another assumption in Hitlers view, which is that competition is
the driving force of evolution and that one can help by giving it a further push.
Since nature is cruel and involves a merciless struggle for survival, should not a
political program based on evolutionary ethics also promote such values and
mechanisms? We have already seen that this view is too limited. The modern
evolutionary picture is quite different.
But what is progress? The idea of evolutionary progress is very controversial.
We find both ardent proponents that evolution is a random process with no pre-
ferred direction (see e.g. Williams 1966; Hull 1988; Gould 1996) and advocates
for the view that there is evolutionary progress (see e.g. Dawkins 1989, 2003, Sect.
5.4; Stewart 1997, 2000; Wright 2000; Corning 2003; McShea and Brandon 2010).
There is an intuitive argument about evolutionary progress through time. A
single cell is less complex than a multicellular fish, which is itself less complex
than a human being composed of trillions of cells, capable of adapting to any
climate and of surfing the web he or she is weaving with millions of social
partners. This is the simple argument that more and more complex organisms did
evolve through time.
Depending on the definition of progress, we might conclude that the same
empirical evidence either supports its having occurred or does not. As Pinker
(1995, pp. 332333) illustrates, a wise elephant would reason that progress defined
as nose elongation is rare in the animal kingdom. According to this definition,
elephants are arguably the most advanced species on Earth.
We shall instead use a broad yet nontrivial definition of progress proposed by
Dawkins (2003, p. 208): a tendency for lineages to improve cumulatively their
288 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
adaptive fit to their particular way of life, by increasing the numbers of features
which combine together in adaptive complexes. This definition avoids anthro-
pocentrism in the sense that it does not focus on any particularly human trait such
as brain size. Following this definition, there is basic evolutionary progress thanks
to a ratchet effect, where natural selection keeps small gains. Let us mention a few
other evolutionary indications of progress.
In the modern evolutionary picture, evolution is based not only on competition
but also on cooperation. Cooperation is to be understood as competition through
cooperation, in the spirit of tit for tat, not a kind of gullible golden rule. The point
is that what cooperates eventually outcompetes others, so evolution cant go in just
any direction. It will either go in the direction of greater cooperation or cease
(Stewart 2000).
A cybernetic analysis of evolution let us see clearly that it involves higher and
higher hierarchical control levels, or metasystem transitions (Turchin 1977).
Evolutionary progress leads to an increase in complexity as higher and higher
control systems work together.
We also mentioned the irreversible functional increase of complexity
(Sect. 10.2.3). This means evolving systems will be fitter if they are able to
perform more useful functions. There is a cybernetic reason why this provides an
evolutionary advantage, which can be explained by Ashbys law of requisite
variety (Ashby 1956). Indeed, possessing a wide variety of functions allows a
system to deal with more external perturbations, and thus makes it fitter. Impor-
tantly, there is no anthropocentric agenda behind such arguments. As Heylighen
(1999) explains,
This preferred direction must not be mistaken for a preordained course that evolution has
to follow. Though systems can be absolutely ordered by their functional complexity, the
resulting relation is not a linear order but a partial order: in general, it is not possible to
determine which of two arbitrarily chosen systems is most functionally complex. For
example, there is no absolute way in which one can decide whether a system that can
survive situations A, B and C is more or less complex or fit than a system that can survive
C, D and E. Yet, one can state that both systems are absolutely less fit than a system that
can survive all A, B, C, D and E. Mathematically, such a partial order can be defined by
the inclusion relation operating on the set of all sets of situations or perturbations that the
system can survive. This also implies that there are many, mutually incomparable ways in
which a system can increase its absolute fitness. For example, the first mentioned system
might add either D or E to the set of situations it can cope with. The number of possi-
bilities is infinite. This leaves evolution wholly unpredictable and open-ended.
Let us now turn to humans. Is there a developmental path for humans, as there is
for the embryo? The embryo develops from a single fertilized cell to a trillion-cell
organized human being. But its development doesnt stop at birth. Our children go
to school, and adults value continuous education. Does our development really
stop after school or university? Our world is changing at an accelerating pace, and
in more and more jobs it is necessary to continue to gain new knowledge and
develop new skills. What are the ultimate moral and cognitive developments that
intelligent beings could achieve in this universe? What are the highest stages of
knowledge, intelligence, and morality?
To approach these ambitious questions, we need to extrapolate some insights of
developmental psychology. Kegan (1982) synthesized the common ground of
several developmental theories by noticing how the notions of subject and object
evolve at each developmental stage (see Table 10.4). His core insight was to
notice that the subject of one stage becomes the object at the next stage. This
process happens recursively. For example, at stage 0, the subject in a baby between
6 months and 2 years is his reflexes, such as sensing or moving. Later, at stage 1,
he has reflexes as an object of control, and his subject is something new: impulses
and perceptions. At stage 2, impulses and perceptions become the object of the
individual in stage 3, and so on. Such recursive growth somehow fits in with the
general evolutionary cybernetic view of Turchin (1977), and it is a promising
research program to study developmental psychology with the thread of self-
metasystem transitions.
The recursive aspect of this theory makes its extrapolation to unknown future
stages of development possible. I have attempted such extrapolations to stages 7,
8, and 9, which I call evolutionary, cosmological, and infinite. Obviously those
stages are not in any way supported by empirical psychological research, as the
others are. But they open the door for humanity and its successor to develop.
Cognitively and logically, the evolutionary stage 7 involves awareness of the
importance and power of evolutionary mechanisms. The highest logic is not just a
static classical logic, with the scientific hypothetico-deductive attitude (as it was in
Piaget 1954). The logic includes this attitude, but adds more dynamical reasoning,
using principles from complexity theory and evolution. Laske (2006, 2008) argued
that adults can be helped to develop such higher levels of cognitive capabilities. In
particular he summarized 28 thought forms regarding process, context, relation-
ship, and transformation of systems. Morally, Kohlbergs (1981) classical work
focuses on moral principles to make a good society, but the evolutionary stage
Table 10.4 Stages of cognitive and moral development (inspired and adapted from Kegan 1982, pp. 8687)
290
goes further. This stage further involves a detachment from the human species,
which is indeed but one species in the living world. There is an awareness that
species have a limited duration. This does not exclude that humans could partic-
ipate in higher cooperative wholes in the future, rather as bacteria cooperated with
cells to form mitochondria or with our guts to help us digest, but there is no reason
why humans would stay the most advanced. Psychologically, at this stage, the
individual is ready to change, to transcend itself in order to also embrace larger
evolutionary systems.
What could possibly come after the evolutionary stage? I propose the cosmo-
logical stage 8, where the subject becomes something greater than dynamical
evolutionary systems on Earth. He identifies with the universe, that is, the greater
context in which the evolutionary dynamics takes place. If the subject is the
universe, the object on which he acts are evolving and developing systems of all
kinds. Morally, truly universal issues are of central concern, such as the red giant
phase of the Sun, the sustainability of new star generation in the galaxy, and
ultimately a lurking cosmic doom. It is hard to imagine a stage beyond the cos-
mological, but there is one, which I propose to call the infinite stage.
At stage 9, individuals are concerned with infinity. Maybe the mental attitude at
this stage can be approached by Carses (1987) unique book Finite and Infinite
Games: A Vision of Life as Play and Possibility. But we should add the lessons of
the previous stage and integrate insights from a cosmic culture. So the individual
realizes that our universe is something temporary, subject to death. To go beyond,
one must identify with something greater than the universe. Let us illustrate the
psychology of this stage with the metaphysics behind cosmological artificial
selection (CAS: see Chap. 8). At this stage, the ultimate good is the infinite
continuation of the evolutionary process. It is the thesis of this chapter, and now
we understand that what matters most are processes that sustain life at large and
our universe, rather that the universe conceptualized as a static object. At stage 8,
the subject was the universe, but in stage 9, he has the universe. The subject is both
aware of and worried about the importance of the infinite continuation of cosmic
reproduction. The universe becomes the object of the subject. He is no more
attached to our particular universe. In CAS, what matters is the recursively fertile
infinite production of intelligent universes. In other words, what matters is to make
sure that universes continue to evolve and reproduce with intelligence, even
beyond our own universe. Thus artificial cosmogenesis becomes a primary way to
cognize, not only to decipher to what extent our universe is robust or fine-tuned,
but to produce an artificial blueprint for a fertile offspring universe.
This stage may be the penultimate one, because the next one would simply
close the developmental logic, the subject and the object becoming the same. Why
should universe reproduction be infinite? The way to fight against the end of the
universe is to apply the concept of end to itself. The end of the end leads
naturally to infinity. The issue here is to achieve cosmological immortality of the
universal reproduction process (see also Sect. 10.4.5). So reproduction is not just
about producing one new universe but about generalizing to a fertile reproduction
mechanism, that is, to n generations as n tends to infinity. This particular universe
292 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
reproduction is just one step in the infinite cycle of evolving universes, like having
one child is one small step in the chain of humanity. A central motto of infinite
psychological beings is: Linfini et lautre continue.1
Again, it is totally impossible either to worry about or to seriously consider
stages 7, 8, and 9 without a strong evolutionary and cosmic culture. It was also
totally impossible to worry about climate change or global economics a few
thousand years ago. These stages can only develop if our awareness extends
beyond human societies to include the whole of evolution on Earth (stage 7), to
cosmic evolution (stage 8), and to the infinite continuation of cosmic evolutionary
processes (stage 9).
Gebsers (1986) remarkable book The Ever-Present Origin analyzed and docu-
mented the developmental path for human societies. He analyzes five kinds of
societal structures, from archaic, magic, mythical, and mental to integral. Each one
involves changes in the conceptions of spacetime; in the notions of signs,
essence, properties, potentiality, emphasis, and consciousness; in forms of mani-
festation, the agency of energy, and the organic emphasis; in the forms of reali-
zation and thought, of expression, assertion, or articulation; and in relationships,
the localization of the soul, the forms of bond, or the general order.
But there are also much more empirical arguments that societies follow
developmental trends. The large-scale study made in the world values survey
shows that secular or rational values instead of traditional values, as well as self-
expression values instead of survival values, increase through time (Inglehart and
Welzel 2005). The study shows that countries tend to develop toward the upper
right region of the space, where a snapshot in the period 19992004 is represented
in Fig. 10.1.
Steven Pinker in his recent and extensive book (2011) argued at length that
there is a decrease in violence in societies, a developmental trend valid on time
scales from millennia to years. Hawken (2008) also showed the rise and growing
impact of nonprofit groups defending ecological sustainability and social justice.
Another factor that shows an increase is the quality of life, or happiness (see e.g.
Heylighen and Bernheim 2000; Ronald Inglehart et al. 2008).
So, where is the development of our technological society headed? We have
already mentioned that a case can be made for the metaphor of a global brain as
1
Again, this is a pun in French: Linfini means the infinite, but sounds like Lun fini,
which literally means The one finishes; while et lautre continue means and the other
continues. So, we could translate (losing the word game with infinity): While one finishes, the
other continues.
10.3 Developmental Values 293
Fig. 10.1 The world value survey cultural map 19992004 (Inglehart and Welzel 2005, p. 63).
Image licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
the next evolutionary transition, fostering cooperation on a planetary scale (see e.g.
Russell 1982; Mayer-Kress and Barczys 1995; Heylighen 2011). This would also
eventually make a new level of intelligence emerge from humans and computers
interacting on the internet.
What are the next evolutionary transitions after the global brain? The starivore
hypothesis (Chap. 9) provides a long-term vision, from switching all our energy
source to solar, to migrating the Earth nearer to the Sun to get more of its energy,
up to black hole accretion and universe making.
294 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
All living things seek to perpetuate themselves into the future, but humans seek to per-
petuate themselves forever. This seeking this will to immortality is the foundation of
human achievement; it is the wellspring of religion, the muse of philosophy, the architect
of our cities and the impulse behind the arts. It is embedded in our very nature, and its
result is what we know as civilization.
(Cave 2012, p. 2)
10.4 Voyage to Five Immortalities 295
Why do we die? Do we have to die? Does everything has to die? Should we accept
death as a blunt fact? This would still leave open the question of how or why we
should learn to accept death. Cave (2012) articulated the mortality paradox, which
goes as follows. Objectively, we see death everywhere and know for sure that we
shall die; but subjectively, we cannot conceive death because it is beyond any
experience we have. So we tend to accept the former and reject the latter, which is
an inconsistency in our worldview, where the it-I test (see Sect. 2.3.3) fails. In
other words, the subjective world is in contradiction with the objective world.
As usual in our approach, we like to apply concepts to themselves. The death of
death leads to the fascinating idea of immortality. However the situation is logi-
cally peculiar here, because the death of death also annihilates the very concept it
was applied to. Immortality means that there is no death anymore, whereas doing
philosophy of philosophy or history of history does not destroy philosophy or
history.
The desire for immortality contrasts with the fear of death. Implicitly or
explicitly this ultimate fear of death triggers a conscious or unconscious desire for
immortality. However, outside religions, the topics of death and immortality are
often taboo. Immortality is seldom found separate from belief in a supernatural
order. Can we develop an idea of immortality without a supernatural order? This is
the axis we focus on now.
Awareness of mortality is not obvious. As Jorge Luis Borges put it in his 1949
novel The Immortal, with the exception of mankind, all creatures are immortal,
for they know nothing of death (Borges 2004, p. 13). Only a few animals seem to
understand death, and even children lack the idea of death. Their discovery of
mortality leads to great anxiety (see e.g. Yalom 1980). This means that the idea of
immortality requires awareness of mortality! This is not so trivial as it seems and
suggests that at different cognitive and moral stages of human development, we
have different ideas of death and immortality.
For example, what about you? Which death do you care about? Human, cre-
ative, evolutionary, or cosmological death? To clarify what I mean by these dif-
ferent deaths, let me tell you a fictional story. Imagine that you are sitting in a bus,
and the person next to you starts to have difficulty breathing, has an epileptic
seizure, and is in imminent danger of death. To your astonishment, nobody in the
bus cares about that person. Nobody tries to do something, to ask if there is a
doctor in the bus, to call an ambulance, to stop the bus, or to perform any other
emergency procedure. This horrible situation is barely imaginable, because
humans are social creatures capable of empathy. We care about human death and
wont let a fellow human die.
Now imagine that you watch the news, and you learn that the government of
your country has decided to abolish human rights. What would you do? Would you
protest, mobilize, sign petitions, go and demonstrate in the street? This would
make sense, because human rights are values inherited through a lot of social
struggle. Many people would do so, but youll certainly find fewer people reacting
than in the first example. Letting an idea die does not have the same psychological
impact as letting a human being die. Probably even fewer people would be
296 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
Woody Allen made his desire for individual immortality crystal clear. Individual
(or personal) immortality is the continuation of life in a biological or digital
substrate. Cave calls this third option the immortality narrative of staying alive. He
argues that almost all cultures contain legends of sages, golden-age heroes or
remote peasants who discovered the secret to defeating aging and death (Cave
2012, p. 4). Our civilization is no exception. As Cave (2012, p. 283) puts it:
The difference between those who swallow 250 dietary supplements per day and the rest
of us is not that they will live forever and we will not. No: we will all die, even the
transhumanists. The difference is that they tell themselves a story about achieving lon-
gevity escape velocity, which helps them to alleviate their existential angst. They are
therefore following a long tradition of elixir seekers, resurrectionists, reincarnationists and
others who have attempted to deny the fact of death.
298 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
biotechnologies can grow a clone of yourself, then you could re-upload the content
of your brain or whatever constitutes your self into this new you. So it seems
that storing your self on a digital substrate is a more versatile strategy than just
focusing on maintaining your biological substrate. The ethical side of such prac-
tices remains of course to be debated.
There are many critiques to these modern yearnings for individual immortality.
Let us mention a few. First, the body is embodied (see e.g. Clark 1998). Cybernetic
immortality assumes that preserving brain patterns is the only challenge. Yet it is
far from clear whether memories, thoughts, emotions, or consciousness can be
reconstructed without a body embedded in an environment. Additionally, if you
resurrect a neural pattern in 200 years, all the context will be lost, and the res-
urrected brain will have a high chance of being totally maladapted. A possible way
out is to run your preserved self in a simulation of your time. But this means you
need to also preserve your environment, and not only your brain. And whats the
point of being resurrected in a fake world?
A second critique is that the body cognizes. For example, we know that the
heart is actually full of neurons, which influence intuitive decision making (see e.g.
McCraty et al. 2004). So to be on the safe side, individual immortalists would be
better off to preserve the whole body and not only the brain. A computational
analogy teaches us that to resurrect a 20-year-old microprocessor or hard drive
(rough analogs of the brain), you need a compatible motherboard, cables, other
chips, and software. Otherwise its useless.
A third critique of immortality is its futility. In a private communication, my
colleague Carlos Gershenson explained that the old alchemists dream of getting
gold from lead is now possible thanks to particle accelerators, but actually more
expensive than mining gold. The situation with personal immortality will most
likely be similar. Once we are able to achieve it, it will cost so much that we shall
finally realize its futility.
Does death contribute to the meaning of life? A common critique is that
immortality undermines motivation. Why do things now if you have eternity in
front of you? There would be no urgency.
Is individual immortality a societal cancer? The analog of an immortal entity in
biology is a cancer cell that has gone wild because it will no longer die. The daily
death of 5070 billion cells in our body (Karam and Hsieh 2009, p. 27) is essential
for our bodies to function. If we see society as a superorganism, we should defi-
nitely stop individuals wanting to become immortal! Are scientists and futurists
passionate about individual immortality working hard on growing a societal
cancer? Maybe.
But there is a brighter option. Imagine you have achieved individual immor-
tality. Your ethics broadens radically, because the time scope of your life has
changed radically. It then really makes sense for you to care about far future
issues, such as climate change, the red giant phase of our Sun, or the heath death of
the universe. You know that sooner or later those issues will affect you.
So, individual immortality may actually be a necessary step for ethics to extend
to very long time scales. People would no longer be able to say: Climate change?
300 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
I dont care because I know it wont affect me. The same holds for cosmological
issues. But can we care for things greater than ourselves without living forever? Of
course we can, for this is the basis of wisdom and heroism, higher ethical func-
tioning where the individual is able to self-sacrifice for a greater whole (see e.g.
Murphy and Ellis 1996). This sacrifice is in fact natural if you have transcended
yourself, if you identify with something greater than the boundary of your skin.
And this leads us to transpersonal immortalities. But winwin cooperation can also
be explored, and sacrifice be seen as the last option.
Transpersonal immortalities focus on the future of life beyond the self. They
can be summarized with the motto: Life after death exists. It is the life of others.
Life continues to exist not only through the existence of other human beings, but
also through other systems or cultural items like a nation, a work of art, or a
scientific achievement. Cave (2012) calls this fourth way of dealing with death the
legacy narratives. Like other immortality narratives, they have been present in
human societies at least since antiquity. Those worried about transpersonal
immortality see beyond their selves, and this arguably corresponds to higher stages
of development and needs. Indeed, in Maslows (1954) hierarchy of needs, self-
actualization is not the last need. In his later work, Maslow identified a new need
beyond self-actualization, namely self-transcendence (see Koltko-Rivera 2006 for
a detailed account of Maslows conception of self-transcendence). At this stage,
the self, having climbed the hierarchy of needs by satisfying physiological, safety,
love, and esteem needs, will not stop at self-actualizing and satisfying his or her
individual needs. The self will strive to extend its boundaries and to identify with
greater things. Koltko-Rivera summarizes that the individual now seeks to further
a cause beyond the self and to experience a communion beyond the boundaries of
the self through peak experience. A cause beyond the self may involve service
to others, devotion to an ideal (e.g., truth, art) or a cause (e.g., social justice,
environmentalism, the pursuit of science, a religious faith), and/or a desire to be
united with what is perceived as transcendent or divine, while the communion
beyond the self may involve mystical experiences and certain experiences with
nature, aesthetic experiences, sexual experiences, and/or other transpersonal
experiences, in which the person experiences a sense of identity that transcends or
extends beyond the personal self.
Philosopher Bertrand Russell did not stop at the materialistic critique of
spiritual immortality quoted above. In his essay How to Grow Old (1956,
pp. 5253), he embraced the idea of a transpersonal immortality:
[T]he fear of death is somewhat abject and ignoble. The best way to overcome it so at
least it seems to me is to make your interests gradually wider and more impersonal, until
bit by bit the walls of the ego recede, and your life becomes increasingly merged in the
universal life. An individual human existence should be like a river small at first,
narrowly contained within its banks, and rushing passionately past boulders and over
waterfalls. Gradually the river grows wider, the banks recede, the waters flow more
quietly, and in the end, without any visible break, they become merged in the sea, and
painlessly lose their individual being. The man who, in old age, can see his life in this way,
will not suffer from the fear of death, since the things he cares for will continue. And if,
with the decay of vitality, weariness increases, the thought of rest will be not unwelcome.
10.4 Voyage to Five Immortalities 301
Psychologist Roy Baumeister, who specialized in the notion of the self, wrote
that the most effective solution to this threat [of death] is to place ones life in
some context that will outlast the self. If ones efforts are devoted to goals and
values that project many generations into the future, then death does not under-
mine them (Baumeister 1991, p. 292).
Notwithstanding Woody Allens wish, 50 years from now I shall be more
interested in watching again and again his great movies than shaking his shaky
hand. Despite his personal preference for individual immortality, his creative work
has an enormous value and is a stunning creative achievement. Can we shift from
an idea of immortality reacting to the fear of individual death to an immortality
expressing the love of life as a whole? This is what we shall explore now through
three kinds of transpersonal immortality: creative, evolutionary, and cosmological.
Unless there is an accepted structure into which each new finding can be fitted, the
immortality of scientists ideas will vanish.
(Miller 1978, p. 5)
Some studies even show that aging may have been selected for its own sake
because genetic systems that limit lifespans have been conserved over evolu-
tionary timescales (Mitteldorf 2004). This implies that organism death (e.g. with
telomeric aging) might be as important as cellular death (apoptosis), but at the
species level. Not without irony, it is in fact good news for those seeking indi-
vidual immortality, since the possibility of a programmatic mechanism triggering
death raises hopes of simply shutting it down (see e.g. Bredesen 2004).
For someone seeking individual immortality, evolutionary immortality is no
longer immortality. Since it involves the death of individuals, how could this be
10.4 Voyage to Five Immortalities 303
Those branches could be seen as our cultural and technological extensions, like
the additional branches and roots in Fig. 10.3.
Finally, at a third stage illustrated in Fig. 10.4, the initial roothumanity
disappears. However, the grapevine has grown considerably since Fig. 10.2, and
could not have grown without the initial root.
To sum up this critique, those who are aware of and endorse evolutionary
immortality will find the striving for individual immortality selfish, meaningless,
and potentially harmful to the future of evolution. It is our evolutionary respon-
sibility to be ready and willing to individually die. The secrets of evolution are
death and time famously wrote and said Carl Sagan (1985, p. 20), by which he
meant the deaths of enormous numbers of lifeforms that were imperfectly
adapted to the environment; and time for a long succession of small mutations that
were by accident adaptive; time for the slow accumulation of patterns of favorable
mutations. If my I, my self-identity, is transcended as my being becomes
10.4 Voyage to Five Immortalities 305
greater than its biological self, it is no problem to die. It is only a small part of me
that dies, namely, its biological body part. But others continue to live; the influence
I have had on Earth or my cultural or biological legacy will continue. And the Sun
will continue to shine, if only for a few more billion years. Alan Segal (2004,
p. 78) showed that traditionally, wisdom and mortality are unconditionally wed.
This also holds for evolutionary immortalists.
There are two broader evolutionary legacies, the legacy of genes and that of the
global brain. Dawkins (1989, p. 34) identified the genes as being the closest entity
we could call immortal:
The genes are the immortals, or rather, they are defined as genetic entities that come close
to deserving the title. We, the individual survival machines in the world, can expect to live
a few more decades. But the genes in the world have an expectation of life that must be
measured not in decades but in thousands and millions of years.
The life expectancy at the level of genes is indeed impressive, but could we find
something close to immortal at a macroevolutionary scale?
Crucially, Stephen Cave showed that immortality narratives are not mutually
incompatible. He illustrated this with the Egyptian civilization, which used all four
immortality narratives (soul, resurrection, staying alive, and legacy). So we could
see a version of the global brain legacy as a combination of individual, creative,
and evolutionary immortality. As Francis Heylighen elaborated (cited from the
Global Brain Mailing list, 6/7/2006):
[P]ersonal knowledge and experience would ultimately be integrated into a collective
consciousness, or what I usually call a global brain, which is itself immortal (or at least
does not have an a priori limited life span). This combines the advantages of continuity
(none of the good ideas are lost) and innovation (personal experiences may be combined
with other personal experiences in order to produce something that is more than the sum of
the parts).
So a wise evolutionary thinker will embrace the whole tree of life. But is it
enough, even considering a promising global brain legacy? No, it is not.
The scalability issue arises. Why not extend the tree of life to its deepest roots
in cosmic evolution? Even the grandeur of a global brain legacy is not enough. It
will at some point run out of energy because the Sun has a limited fuel reserve. We
cannot ignore the cosmological context. So we must expand our will to immor-
tality from the planetary level to the cosmological. Can we aim for an even more
enduring form of immortality, taking into account the predictable end of the Sun
and other cosmological constraints?
Why stop our identification with the 4.5 billion years of evolution on Earth
when we know that the cosmological context that gave birth to humanity took
13.8 billion years? We can be proud to be 13.8 billion years old if we identify with
the atoms that compose us. And who knows what those atoms will become in the
far future? There are good chances that they will be recycled by our descendants
for purposes we can barely imagine.
306 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
A human being is part of a whole, called by us the Universe a part limited in time and
space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the
rest a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for
us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest us.
Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion
to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.
Albert Einstein (quoted in 1972 by the New York Times)
This feeling is indeed very similar to what Einstein eludes to in the above quote.
Such connections of our subjective experience with the universe are deeply
inspiring, and fundamental for cosmological immortalists. In particular, cosmo-
logical issues are the most important ones to focus on if one wishes literally to
achieve immortality. But those almost religious feelings do not solve the objective
problem of lurking cosmic doom.
Once we extend our awareness to the universe, thermoethical issues arise,
namely the limited amount of free energy available in the Sun, stars, galaxies, and
ultimately in the universe. Additionally, feeling compassion with the universe
implies knowledge of threatening consequences of cosmological models, such as
the big crunch, big rip, or heat death. Making the cosmos hospitable for life forever
is not at all a trivial matter.
However, a critique may go as follows. Cosmic doom scenarios may reveal a
failure of our imagination, because of the intrinsic limitation of deterministic
models that they end in stable attractors of disorder or equilibrium. We simply fail
to model innovation and creativity. This may be valid, but then it is up to us to
imagine more creative scenarios and models for the future of life in the universe.
Let us consider a few options to continue the evolutionary process infinitely.
First, let us muse philosophically about an argument we call metaphysical
immortality. The reasoning goes as follows. Recall the metaphysical challenge for
ultimate explanations (Sect. 4.1.2). When we ask why not nothing? we
implicitly admit that there is something. The postulate nothing comes from
nothing is hard to challenge, at least if we define nothing in a philosophical
wayand not as a quantum vacuum full of potentialto mean that everything
always endures, in one form or another. For immortality, this implies that
10.4 Voyage to Five Immortalities 307
something, some of our material-energetic us, may have had an infinite history,
and may have an infinite future! So we may all be truly immortal in this meta-
physical sense, both in the past and in the future. But if you are murdered
tomorrow, even though the atoms composing your body will be recycled, I am not
sure if this metaphysical immortality will really comfort you. So this metaphysical
immortality does not dispense with more psychological and philosophical
considerations.
We can now turn to the central issue of cosmological immortality. More
accurately, the question is: How to perpetuate life in the universe infinitely?
A straightforward answer is to actively promote space colonization. To export
life or humanity to outer space is a way to achieve immortality (see e.g. Baird
1989, p. 48). As with any future prospect for humanity, we can speculate that
advanced extraterrestrials would have had similar ideas, and are actually colo-
nizing the galaxy with life (Crick and Orgel 1973). Intriguingly, this idea of
directed panspermia leads to the proposition that bacteria or viruses on Earth might
actually have an extraterrestrial origin (Hoyle and Wickramasinghe 1990). How-
ever, even space colonization doesnt work in the very long term, since it fails to
deal with the thermodynamic constraints.
So, how, if only in possibility, is the universe going to survive as a whole?
Globally, there are two ways to perpetuate life, either by survival or by repro-
duction. Let us apply those two options to the universe.
We use again the biological theory of r-K selection and see how it could apply
to the universe. An r-reproduction strategy would involve fast reproduction and
short survival. It doesnt seem to apply well to our universe, which is globally
quite stable and changes slowly. As far as we know, there are not billions of baby
universes produced every second. The K-strategy involves slow reproduction and
prolonged survival. It seems more appropriate for application to our universe. The
extreme case is to have no reproduction at all. This is the essence of Dysons
(1979) proposal to make lifedefined as information processingsurvive forever.
The steady-state theory also provided a never-aging cosmos. Even if galaxies
age and die, new galaxies are born to replace them. In the steady-state universe,
there is no beginning and no end, and the universe as a whole never gets old. Of
course, there is a catch, which is the issue of how new galaxies appear. Paul Davies
(1994, p. 152) remarks that such a process would require the addition of 1050 tons
of matter to the universe every few billion years!
The reversible computation scenario also offersin principlea way to
compute forever, because no new energy would be needed thanks to the use of
reversible logic gates. But as we saw (Sect. 9.4.1), a civilization choosing this path
would not be allowed to forget (erase states) because this operation has an ener-
getic cost.
Tiplers (1997) omega point scenario, although it only works with a closed
universe, which is not supported by current cosmology, points toward a very slow
reproduction mechanism, where the energy contracting toward the big crunch is
re-used to produce a next-generation universe. Interestingly, Tiplers omega point
theory is actually a mix of individual and cosmological immortality. Indeed, near
308 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
the omega point, intelligence is so powerful that it has the computational capacity
to resurrect all of uscybernetically. This is a very unlikely outcome for sure,
since a civilization developing cognitively and morally up to a cosmological stage
would certainly not care to resurrect all the previous life histories of a particular
species, and even less of a particular human being who lived some billions of years
ago.
Another reproductive scenario is cosmological artificial selection (CAS), a
speculative philosophical scenario integrating the origin and future of the universe
with a role for intelligent life (see Chap. 8). Cosmological immortality via CAS is
analogous to biological immortality through a chain of reproducing universes
instead of a chain of living entities.
Interestingly, Cave (2012, p. 249) speculated about cosmological artificial
selection as a way to realize a cosmic legacy narrative. He apparently had the
insight independently of the literature we reviewed (Sect. 8.3.1):
Perhaps one day we or some far more evolved successor will be able to seed new
universes that are fit for life. Indeed, perhaps we are already in one, seeded by some earlier
civilization.
Beside the r-K trade-off, let us now seek inspiration in an evolutionary theory of
aging in biology. The disposable soma theory (see Kirkwood 1977, 1999) simply
says that it is more efficient to invest energy in reproduction than in indefinite
upkeep of the organism. Once the best chances for reproduction are used, thus
ensuring the survival of the almost immortal genes (germline), the mortal body
(soma) can be disposed of. Futurist Smart (2009, pp. 224226) speculated that this
theory may also apply to the universe. The soma is analogous to the constituents of
the universe, with its mortal galaxies, stars, and planets while the germline is
analogous to free parameters that determine immortal physical laws.
If we take seriously this fundamental trade-off in energy expenditure between
soma and germline, the ultimate death of the universes soma may indeed be
inevitable. But its germline, its most delicate physical structure, may be saved if
universes are replicable. If CAS holds, intelligent civilizations will devote much
energy to preparing and making universes, and less energy in maintaining our
disposable universe. Ifand this is a big ifthe starivore hypothesis (see Chap. 9)
is correct, there is already huge amount of energy invested in securing the germline
of our universe. A famous maxim by La Rochefoucauld (1868) says that neither
the Sun nor death can be looked at steadily. Cosmological immortalistsand
perhaps starivoresare proud to defy the maxim. They first look steadily at the
death of our universe and then look as steadily at our Sun and other stars, only to
see them as energy bounties necessary to the task of universe making.
Yet cosmological immortalists would not be totally content with making one
new universe. They would worry: Will the newly formed universe develop life and
intelligence, up to the level where universe making again becomes possible?
Saving our particular universe by making another universe is not enough. It would
just shift the problem of immortality to the next universe. Making a sterile new
universe would be as depressing as having one only sterile child. This realization
10.4 Voyage to Five Immortalities 309
motivates the next cognitive stage 9, concerned about issues regarding infinite
evolution.
There is a difference between indefinitely and infinitely. While it seems
more careful to say that the evolutionary process would continue indefinitely, a
highly advanced intelligence would not be satisfied with the uncertainty implied
by the word indefinitely. It would attempt the ultimate metasystem transition,
where the concept of reproduction is applied to itself. Indeed, the reproduction of
reproduction can be identified as recursivity. This would open the path to achieve
true immortality, through a provably infinite continuation. Let us speculate on how
a stage 9 being could approach this issue and accept the prospect of dying in peace.
There is first a statistical way. Caring universe makers will run extensive
simulations to prove statistically that universes will reproduce recursively.
Securing this property would be a major challenge of hard artificial cosmogen-
esis (see also Sect. 8.3.9).
The second way is more rigorous because it involves the mathematical logic
technique of model checking. Statistics based on computer simulations have
always a small probability of failure. A good old solid logical proof is much more
desirable. Caring universe makers will do model checking of the (n ? 1)th uni-
verse to prove recursively that it will reproduce. But considering the difficulty and
computationally intensive process of model checking even for very simple sys-
tems, it seems quite unrealistic that this is achievable, even for extremely advanced
civilizations.
The third way is open if hypercomputation is unlocked. For then we could
compute much more, and this might provide the missing tool to validate the model
checking approach. In all likelihood, the proposition universe n ? 1 is fertile
will be Gdel-undecidable. So universe makers could never be sure that the uni-
verse they made would have this desired property of fertility. Hypercomputation
may solve this issue, because it could in principle decide issues that are not Turing-
computable. This would be a proof of cosmological immortality. The availability
or not of these speculative options will depend on the level of universe making that
becomes available (see Sect. 8.3.3). Of course the thermodynamic issue should not
be underestimated: Where does the energy come from to make universe n ? 1
from universe n (see Sect. 8.3.7)?
In the conclusion of his book, Stephen Cave argued that a combination of
virtues which lead to acceptance of death and hope for a legacy narrative constitute
a wise way to deal with death. Cosmological immortalists would largely agree. A
rising scale of wisdom about mortality can even be summarized with the following
insight. Microcosmically, we owe our life to the death of cells; macroscopically,
we owe our life to the death of stars. Indeed, we saw that cellular death is essential
for our body to regenerate itself, and it is standard astrophysics that the carbon
atoms that constitute our bodies were cooked up in second-generation stars that
exploded in supernovas.
But how can we imagine seriously caring about the issue of cosmological
immortality? We can summarize five steps toward it. The first is to realize that
your individual death is normal and inevitable in the long term. The second is to
310 10 Cosmological Ethics and Immortality
develop psychologically, and fulfill all your needs to grow the hierarchy of needs
up to the need for self-transcendence. You then surpass your self to become
compassionate and identify with the process of cosmic evolution. Even if you
accept individual death, you still refuse death as a whole, namely the idea that
nothing would continue to evolve after the predictable death of your body, society,
species, Sun, galaxy, and universe. You then set the immortality of the evolu-
tionary process as a goal. I leave the final words of this section to Dyson (1988,
p. 121), who wrote:
We know very little yet about the potentialities and the destiny of life in the universe. In
speculating about these matters we follow a great tradition. We are in the same company
with Bernal and Newton, Tsiolkovsky and Thomas Wright. Letting our imagination
wander among the stars, we too may hear whispers of immortality.
Open Questions
C. Vidal, The Beginning and the End, The Frontiers Collection, 311
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312 Conclusion
An analogy from dynamical systems theory clearly shows that these correspond to
the simplest attractors: the fixed point (0-dimensional) and the limit cycle
(1-dimensional). We have no reason to exclude n-dimensional attractors or strange
attractors (noninteger-dimensional) whose nature are fractal. Admittedly, it
becomes challenging for our brains to think about the origin in such terms.
The major thesis of Chap.5 was that free parameters in particle physics models
will be reduced to free parameters in a cosmological model. It is a fundamental
issue in physics and cosmology to reduce or explain those remaining free
parameters. I analyzed the issue with physical, mathematical, computational, and
biological backgrounds. But are those free parameters further fine-tuned for life or
complexity?
To answer this much debated fine-tuning issue, I started by reviewing the
probabilistic, logical, and physical fallacies that surround it. Then I distinguished
the issue from seven other closely related issues: free parameters, parameter
sensitivity, metaphysical issues, anthropic principles, observational selection
effects, teleology, and theology.
I introduced the cosmic evolution equation as a central conceptual tool to study
how robust our universe is when it comes to the emergence of complexity and to
what extent it is fine-tuned compared to other possible universes. The fine-tuning
issue can then be formulated as: Are fecund universes rare or common in the
space of possible universes? The straightforward way to answer such a difficult
question is to explore the space of possible universes, through artificial
cosmogenesis. Although it would be extremely ambitious and computationally
intensive, in Chap. 7 I gave more arguments to show why artificial cosmogenesis is
a natural outcome of future scientific activity. Since comparing our universe to
other possible ones has just gotten under way, I concluded that the fine-tuning of
our universe can at most be a conjecture.
Studying the fine-tuning conjecture is one thing, explaining it is another. I
showed the shortcomings of eight classical explanations: skepticism, necessity,
fecundity, god of the gaps, chance of the gaps, weak anthropic principle of the
gaps, multiverse, and design. This left two additional explanations inspired by
evolutionary theory: cosmological natural selection (CNS) and cosmological
artificial selection (CAS), which I discussed and critically analyzed in detail in
Chap. 8.
I started by reviewing the history of cosmological natural selection and
formulated objections to it. To remedy these objections, I introduced cosmological
artificial selection and reviewed its generally unknown history. This evolutionary
scenario is my core thesis, a philosophical speculation aimed at explaining the
fine-tuning issue and the meaning of life and intelligence in the far future universe.
Such an ambitious thesis naturally triggers many objections, and I formulated
and addressed eight of them. I then summarized four different roads leading to
CAS and further substantiated this scenario by showing that because it is so broad,
it has limited alternatives. Furthermore, I showed that the nine other alternatives
encounter problems and difficulties.
314 Conclusion
Our time is unique. Humans are connecting both via and with more and more
networked and pervasive computers, creating a new level of planetary intelligence
best conceptualized as a global brain. We are also on the brink of confirming
the existence of extraterrestrial life, via astrobiology or high energy astrobiology,
which would refute biocentrism or intellicentrism.
This event will change our worldviews forever, and thanks to the cosmological
perspective developed in Part III, we are ready. But the scenario of cosmological
artificial selection also prepares us to be ready for the eventual refutation of
univercentrism, the belief that our universe is somehow central and unique. This
would defeat the very last bastion of anthropocentrism.
Is it a tragedy that we shall probably die before witnessing such major and
magnificent evolutionary or worldview transitions? No, because if we become
wise enough to endorse a cosmological ethics and grow toward a will to
cosmological immortality, we are also ready to die as individuals.
All in all, what is the meaning of your life in a cosmological perspective? Of
course, it was not the purpose of this book to tell you what the direction of your
personal life should take. Becoming a doctor, a dancer, or a high energy
astrobiologist remains your own choice. Yet you might want to better harmonize
your life with the whole of cosmic evolution. This practical shift remains to be
worked out, but at least we have set some theoretical foundations. In a nutshell,
here is the meaning of life in a cosmological perspective: It is to replicate at the
grandest scale, through an intimate connection of intelligence with the universe.
Instead of seeing the cosmos as hostile to life and intelligence, I would like to
end with a short poem, Cosmosis, conveying a vision of cosmic evolution as a love
story; a love story between the cosmos and its precious intelligence:
Introduction1
Across the centuries, humanity has been wondering about its existence and its
place in the universe. Human beings employed insights from myths, religions, art,
philosophy, and science to make sense of the world around them.
However, in the current era of accelerating scientific, cultural, and social
developments, all the old certainties are put into question. The resulting confusion
and fragmentation often lead to pessimism and uncertainty, and a need for
psychological guidance in the form of a clear and reliable system of thought.
This need makes it important to search for a coherent and comprehensive
worldview by finding new answers to the big questions associated with this quest
for understanding. Answering them explicitly is traditionally a task that has fallen
to philosophy, and often took the form of comprehensive and coherent systematic
philosophical treatises. The great philosophical systems are of this sort.
Regrettably, this trend seems to have fallen out of fashion, since most of
todays philosophy is busy with second-order problems (Adler 1965).
In contrast to most contemporary philosophical practice, below are tentative
and provisional responses to first-order philosophical questions. The answers to
these questions together determine a worldview, i.e. a comprehensive
philosophical system, a coherent vision of the whole. A worldview gives
meaning to our life, and helps us to understand the world around us.
Each worldview question would need at least a book to answer it properly.
Moreover, the most appropriate way to answer them is with a systematic
philosophical system (e.g. Bunge 1974; Rescher 1992). I do not have that objective
here. Instead, I provide below very short responses as positions, not arguments.
I give some main references to the works that influenced me, where the curious
reader will be able to find many detailed arguments. Before I start, it is worth
recalling the many advantages of explicitly stating ones philosophical position.
1
Eventual updates to this philosophical identity card can be found at: http://www.evodevo
universe.com/wiki/A_Cosmic_Evolutionary_Worldview:_Short_Responses_to_the_Big_Questions.
C. Vidal, The Beginning and the End, The Frontiers Collection, 317
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318 Appendix I: A Cosmic Evolutionary Worldview: Short Answers to the Big Questions
First, these short responses will obviously let the reader grasp my position
quickly. The position is stated transparently and straightforwardly, using a
minimum of technical concepts.
Secondly, the task of answering those questions is a daring effort. I balance this
great ambition with great caution in answers I provide. They are non-dogmatic,
provisional, revisable, and sometimes falsifiable. The responses proposed here are
mixed philosophical and scientific conjectures to make sense of the world.
Accordingly, some of them are speculative. They are of course not definitive. In
such a short format, I also do less than justice to the pros and cons of alternative
positions (the dialectical dimension of philosophy). This doesnt mean that Im
unaware of them. Still, if you think Ive missed either something important or a
position clearly better than the ones presented here, please contact me. Like any
good philosopher and scientist, I very much value and warmly welcome criticism
and any further reflection you might have reading this text.
Thirdly, this transparency in responding to basic questions allows efficient
debate and communication. Many debates and disagreements get lost in details,
without touching the heart of issues at stake. This practice of answering first-order
questions can save an enormous amount of time in confusing debates, because
enduring disagreements always end up in disagreements about such fundamental
questions. I invite you to do the same exercise before reading what follows, and
simply answer the worldview questions for yourself. Feel free to use the following
space to outline your main worldview answers. Good luck!
Appendix I: A Cosmic Evolutionary Worldview: Short Answers to the Big Questions 319
(b) Where does it all come from? Explanation (model of the past)
(CAS) developed in Chap. 8 is that in order to avoid the effect of the second law of
thermodynamics, those toy universes could become a blueprint for a new universe
(Vidal 2008b, 2010a, 2012, 2012a).
This scenario is a mixed scientific and philosophical speculation. It is
philosophical because it involves a role for intelligent life, and so the success of
CAS depends on our conscious choices for the future of cosmic evolution. It thus
requires an axiological dimension, proper to philosophy, which we explored in
Chap. 10.
CAS has also a scientific aspect, since its general perspective gives rise to far-
reaching consequences and implications regarding the search for advanced
extraterrestrials. To confirm or disconfirm the existence of the starivores I
introduced in Chap. 9, we must approach the question scientifically within the field
of high energy astrobiology.
(d) What is good and what is evil?
The inner drive or implicit value governing all life is fitness, i.e. survival,
growth, development, and reproduction. From a human perspective, this
fundamental value includes a sustainable quality of life, well-being, or
happiness. Evolutionary, developmental, thermodynamic, psychological, and
cybernetic theories allow us to derive a number of more concrete objectives
from this overarching value, i.e. properties that are necessary for long-term well-
being. These include openness, diversity, intelligence, knowledge, cooperation,
freedom, personal control, health, and a coherent and comprehensive worldview.
In the longer term, fitness implies increasing adaptiveness and evolvability
beyond human society as we know it. Actions that promote these values with the
least friction possible are intrinsically good, and actions that suppress them are
bad.
As our psychology grows in higher stages of development, we make sure our
values do not conflict with higher evolutionary systems. Not only do I try to
improve my happiness, but my happiness becomes more and more tightly linked
with my family, my country, society, humanity, the planet, and the cosmos.
Ultimately I should act from awareness of and compassion with such a hierarchy,
combining the values of my own life with the sustainability of larger and larger
evolutionary systems.
At heart, humans have a will to immortality (e.g. Turchin 1990; Lifton and
Olson 2004). In my worldview, this takes the form of an endless, infinite cosmic
evolution. The metaphysical and speculative part of cosmological artificial
selection translates this will to immortality into an infinite process of evolution
sustained by intelligence making offspring universes (Vidal 2008b, 2010a; 2012;
esp. Vidal 2012a).
(e) How should we act?
To maximize the achievement of these values in real life, we need to overcome
a variety of problems and obstacles. Cognitive sciences, cybernetics, and complex
systems science suggest various tools and strategies to tackle complex problems,
Appendix I: A Cosmic Evolutionary Worldview: Short Answers to the Big Questions 323
What is truth?
There are no absolute truths. The truth of a theory is merely its power to
produce predictions that are confirmed by observations (Turchin 1993). The
scientific enterprise is one of conjectures and refutations (Popper 1962), and there
is a natural selection of ideas and theories that give more power, i.e. prediction and
control (Campbell 1974).
Ultimately, what is the meaning of the phenomenon of science in this
pragmatic, constructive, and evolutionary epistemology? It is not the search for an
ideal truth but the pragmatic goal of acquiring knowledge. In the scenario of
CAS, it is to build a model of our actual and other possible universes that could
become, with some variation, a blueprint for a future universe, thereby escaping
predictions of cosmic doom.
Appendix II
Argumentative Maps
This appendix presents the logical structure of the main arguments presented in
this book. The core problems of our concern are mapped in the first map called the
current reality tree (CRT, Figs. A.5, A.6, A.7, A.8, A.9, A.10, A.11) and the
proposed solution in the second map, called the future reality tree (FRT,
Figs. A.12, A.13, A.14, A.15, A.16, A.17, A.18). To facilitate readability, I first
present a collapsed version of both the CRT (Figs. A.1, A.2) and the FRT
(Figs. A.3, A.4).2
This approach provides an externalization of reasoning so that arguments can
be clearly visualized. This brings many benefits, such as:
Allowing the reader to grasp the logic of the argumentation quickly and clearly.
Presenting an alternative structure of the content of the book. The table of
contents and the abstract tend to present a rhetorical and less logical structure.
Allowing the possibility of a constructive discussion of assumptions and
deductions. For example, a critic can say the core problem is not P but Q; or
I disagree that hypothesis X leads to Y, you need implicit hypothesis Z, ... or
hypothesis W is wrong because ...; or there is another solution to your
problem, which is ... etc.
However, it should be clear that reading the maps cannot replace reading the
book. Only the core reasoning is mapped, often in a simplified way. The maps also
represent what I consider the core issues and proposed solutions, with no ambition
toward comprehensiveness. Many more arguments are developed and discussed in
the text. You as a reader can distill many other insights from the text. I am not
claiming that these trees should be considered as my dogmatic position. I am in
principle open to other interpretations and emphases. Those who have worked with
argumentative maps know too well that drawing them is above all a basis for
continuous improvement.
To draw the maps I used some of the insights of Eliyahu Goldratts theory of
constraints (TOC) and its thinking process (see Goldratt and Cox 1984; Goldratt
2
A poster presentation of these maps is available at: http: //student.vub.ac.be/*clvidal/writings/
Vidal-PhD-Poster-Maps.pdf.
C. Vidal, The Beginning and the End, The Frontiers Collection, 325
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1, Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014
326 Appendix II: Argumentative Maps
3
http://flyinglogic.com/download/ for the software as well as http://student.vub.ac.be/*clvidal/
writings/Vidal-CRT-PhD.logic and http://student.vub.ac.be/*clvidal/writings/Vidal-FRT-PhD.
logic for the CRT and FRT maps.
Appendix II: Argumentative Maps 327
Fig. A.8 Detail of Fig. A.7, showing that classical fine-tuning explanations are unsatisfactory
Appendix II: Argumentative Maps 335
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Index
A Binary stars
Accretion binary zoo, 233
control, 238, 240, 241, 243, 246, 253 contact, 234
Algorithmic information theory, 77, 78, 88 detached, 234
Alien design semi-detached, 234
see cosmological artificial selection Biocentrism, 202, 203, 207, 315
Analogy, 17, 22, 51, 53, 56, 72, 79, 80, 88, 90, Biocosm
92, 93, 132, 208, 236, 246, 268, 299, see cosmological artificial selection
303, 313 Black hole, 227231
Anthropic principle used as energy sources, 228, 232, 246
completely ridiculous, 198 used as hypercomputers, 230
meduso-anthropic, see cosmological artifi- used as scientific experiments, 128
cial selection used as starship engines, 232
see also observation selection effect; used as telescopes, 229
teleology used as time travel devices, 228
strong, 109 used as ultimate computers, 230
weak, 109, 143, 313 used as waste disposals, 232
Architect point of view, 193, 314 used to make new universes, see also
Artificial cosmogenesis universe making, 168, 172, 179, 193
hard, 309
soft, 173, 187, 188
Artificial life, 132, 133, 150, 155, 157, 216, C
223, 231 CAS
Artificial selection, 93, 98, 139, 144, 145 see cosmological selection
Astrobiology, 129, 202, 206, 207, 212, 216, Cataclysmic variable, 237239, 256
217, 315 Chance
high energy, 207, 260, 265, 312, 314, 315 of the gaps, 142, 145, 313
see also SETI CNS
Attractor see cosmological selection
cognitive, 61, 62, 66, 67, 69, 73, 74, 297 Complexity
Axiology, 5, 11, 18, 30, 32, 47, 48, 52, 285 functional, 277, 288
increase, 154, 155, 202, 271, 277, 288
open-ended, 116
B robustness of the emergence of, 95, 128, 157
Barrow scale, 201, 207, 226229, 232, 237, structural, 155, 277
248, 252, 254, 256 transitions, 116, 133
Big bang, 24, 6668, 70, 73, 74, 84, 117, 204, Computation
314 reversible, 232, 307
Big questions, 5, 38, 42, 56, 311 see also hypercomputation
C. Vidal, The Beginning and the End, The Frontiers Collection, 375
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-05062-1, Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014
376 Index
F Infinity
Fecundity, principle as an ultimate value, 289292
see also fine-tuning ethics, 289292, 306310
Fine-tuning fine-tuning, 97100
conjecture, 139, 145, 312, 313 infinite replication paradox, 72, 73
explanations, 139145 regress, 61, 64, 65, 6769, 71
fallacies, 95, 98, 102, 104, 145 survival, 287, 288
logical proof of, 138 ultimate explanation, 6264, 306
multiverse fine-tuning argument, 99 Information
probabilistic proof of, 138 incompressible, 91, 92
probabilities and, 99, 100, 145 Initial conditions, 45, 77, 78, 8486, 88,
theological fine-tuning argument, 99 9093, 96, 100, 138, 158
Fitness, 96, 97, 107, 269, 270, 275278, 283, see also parameters, free
284, 288 Intellicentrism, 202204, 207, 315
Flying spaghetti monster, 3942 Intelligent design (ID), 39, 40, 113, 117, 287
see also intelligent design proactive, 25, 180
Fractal, 83, 110, 313 reactive, 180
Freedom, 29, 33, 50, 51, 284 see also universe making
see also SEUI (search for extrauniversal
intelligence)
G see also Flying spaghetti monster
Global brain, 207, 292, 307, 315
God
of the gaps, 42, 95, 142, 143, 145, 209, 313 K
player, 161, 181 Kardashev scale, 201, 207, 224, 232, 233, 237,
see also intelligent design 254, 256
Golden rule, 280282, 288, 302
see also ethics
Gravitational lensing L
see Black holes, used as telescopes Life, meaning of, 5, 270, 313, 315
see also values, ethics
Living systems
H and binary stars, 239248
Heat death, 65, 70, 72, 294, 306 criteria for, 235, 238
Hibernation, 189, 195, 196
High energy astrobiology, 207, 260, 265, 312,
314 M
Metaphilosophy, 14, 15, 17, 69
Modelling, 157, 158
I artificial-world, 157, 158
Immortality real-world, 157
cosmological, 270, 291, 294, 296, see also artificial life and artificial
305309, 314 cosmogenesis
creative, 270, 301, 302, 305 Multiverse, 85, 89
evolutionary, 270, 302, 304, 315 see also: universe, mathematical
individual, 270, 294296, 298, 301305, testability, 8892
308, 315 virtual, 100, 132, 144
metaphysical, 306
personal, 296, 297, 299301, 315
spiritual, 270, 296, 297, 300, 314 N
stages of, 295, 296, 302, 312 Natural creation theory
transpersonal, 296, 300, 301 see also cosmological artificial selection
378 Index