Combinations and Permutations Combinations Rule

Combinations -- number of different n n!

samples of containing r elements that can r r! n r !
be selected from n elements
Denoted as n choose r
Permutations number of different where ! is the factorial symbol
ordered samples containing r elements
that can be selected from n elements r! r r 1 r 2 3 2 1
0! 1
May also be denoted as n Cr

Permutations Rule
n!
Pr
n
n r !
Pr
Thus, n Cr n

r!
1 2

Combinations Rule Example 1

100 choose 5 5 cards are drawn at random from a well
shuffled deck of 52 cards
100 100! Find the probability of drawing 4 aces
5 5! 100 5 !
Solution
100 99 98 97 96 95! Total number of ways to choose 5 cards

5 4 3 2 1 95! from 52 =
5 33 49 97 96
52 52! 52 51 50 49 48 47!
75,287 ,520 5 5! 52 5 !
5!47!
52 51 50 49 48
100 100! =
95 95! 100 95 ! 5 4 3 2 1
2,598,960
100 99 98 97 96 95!
This gives us the denominator; what about
95! 5 4 3 2 1 the numerator?
5 33 49 97 96
75,287 ,520
3 4

1
Example 1 (continued) Key Formulas for Probability
Complementary Events
____ ____ ____ ____ ____ P A P A 1
4 Additive Rule
4 48
1 48
0.000018 or 0.0018% P A B P A P B P A B
52 2,598,960

5
Mutually Exclusive Events
Example 2 P A B 0
Find the probability of drawing 2 queens
and 3 kings. Additive Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events
P A B P A P B
4 4
2 3
6 4 9.6 106
52 2,598,960
5

5 6

Key Formulas for Probability Example 3

Conditional Probability Six sample points and 3 events
P A B
P A B
P B
4 6
2
B C
Multiplicative Rule 5
P A B P B P A B P A P B A
1 3
A
Independent Events

P A B P( A) P(1) = .3; P(2) = P(6) = .2; P(3) = P(4) = P(5) = .1

Find the following (exercise for home):
Multiplicative Rule for Independent Events
P A B, P B C , P A C , P A B C ,
P A B P A P B P B , P A B , P B C , and P B A

7 8

2
Example 3 (continued) Example 4
Six sample points and 3 events A company that manufactures computer
chips uses two different manufacturing
Are A and B independent? Mutually processes. Process 1 produces nondefective
exclusive? Why? chips 98.5% of the time and process 2
produces nondefective chips 97.1% of the
time. Process 1 is used 60% of the time.
What is the probability that a randomly
chosen chip was produced by process 2 and
is defective?
Are B and C independent? Mutually
exclusive? Why? Let A: {chip is defective} and
B: {chip was produced by process 2}

Want to find .
P A B

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Example 5
Example 6
You have an unfair coin with
P(heads) = 2/3 and P(tails) = 1/3 The probability that an Avon salesperson
sells beauty products to a prospective
customer on the first visit to the customer
You also have two urns with colored
marbles: is 0.4. If the salesperson fails to make the
sale on the first visit, the probability that
Urn 1: 3 blue, 5 red
the sale will be made on the second visit is
Urn 2: 7 blue, 6 red
0.65. The salesperson never visits a
prospective customer more than twice.
Conduct the following experiment: toss What is the probability that the
the coin; if heads draw a ball at random salesperson will make a sale to a
from Urn 1; if tails, draw a ball at random
particular customer?
from Urn 2.

Question: What is the probability of

drawing a blue marble?

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3
Bayes Rule Bayes Rule (continued)
Requires the Rule of Total Probability % of US %
Region Population Seniors
Suppose that events A1 , A2 , , Ak are NE 19.0 13.8
mutually exclusive and exhaustive,
Mid W 23.1 13.0
that is exactly one of the events must
occur. Then for any event B, South 35.5 12.8
West 22.4 11.1
100.0

k
P B P Aj P B Aj
j 1

Suppose a U.S. resident is selected at random

S event the resident selected is a senior
R1 event the resident selected lives in NE
R2 event the resident selected lives in Mid W
R3 event the resident selected lives in South
R4 event the resident selected lives in W

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Bayes Rule (continued) Bayes Rule (continued)

% of US % Suppose that events A1 , A2 , , Ak are

Region Population Seniors mutually exclusive and exhaustive,
that is exactly one of the events must
NE 19.0 13.8 occur. Then for any event B,
Mid W 23.1 13.0
South 35.5 12.8 P Ai P B Ai
P Ai B
P A P B A
k
West 22.4 11.1
j j
100.0 j 1

where Ai can be any one of the events

4
P S P R j P S R j A1 , A2 , , Ak
j 1

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4
Bayes Rule (continued) Bayes Rule (continued)
Return to the regions/senior example Prior probability
and ask: What percentage of seniors P(R1) is a prior probability because is
are NE residents? represents the probability that the person
selected lives in the NE before knowing
P R1 P S R1 whether the person is a senior
P R1 S

4

P R j P S R j
j 1
Posterior probability
Suppose that the person selected is
determined to be a seniorusing this
information we can revise the probability
that the person lives in the NE P(R1|S)
This represents the probability that the
person selected lives in the NE after we
learn that the person is a senior

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Example 7 (from Weiss, Introductory

Statistics, 8th edition, page 212)

The national Sporting Goods Association

collects and publishes data on participation in
selected sports activities. For Americans 7
years old or older, 17.4% of males and 4.5%
of females play golf. And, according to the
U.S. Census Bureaus Current Population
Reports, of Americans 7 years old or older,
48.6% are male and 51.4% are female. From
among those who are 7 years old or older, one
is selected at random. Find the probability
that the person selected

a) plays golf
b) plays golf, given that the person is male
c) is a female, given that the person plays golf

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