RISK MANAGEMENT ASSIGNMENT

Dabare G.L.S.
Name : ..
EN 14548260
No : ..

Quiz 1

Take a look at how each of these project risks is handled and figure out if the risk is being
avoided, mitigated, transferred, or accepted.

1. Stormy weather and high winds could cause very slippery conditions, so you put up a tent and
wear slip-resistant footwear to keep from losing your footing.

Avoided Mitigated

Transferred Accepted

2. You buy a surge protector to make sure a lightning strike wont blow out all of your
equipment.

Avoided Mitigated

Transferred Accepted

3. Flooding could cause serious damage to your equipment, so you buy an insurance policy that
covers flood damage.

Avoided Mitigated
Transferred
Accepted

4. The manufacturer issues a warning that the safety equipment you are using has a small but
nonzero probability of failure under the conditions that youll be facing. You replace it with
more appropriate equipment.

Avoided
Mitigated
Transferred Accepted

5. A mud slide would be very damaging to your project, but theres nothing you can do about it.

Avoided Mitigated
Transferred Accepted

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6. A team member discovers that the location you planned on using is in a county that is
considering regulations that could be expensive to comply with. You work with a surveying team
to find a new location.
Avoided
Mitigated
Transferred Accepted

7. Surrounding geological features could interfere with your communications equipment, so you
bring a flare gun and rescue beacon in case it fails.
Avoided Mitigated

Transferred Accepted

Quiz 2
Read each of these scenarios and identify which tool or technique is being used.
If a scenario uses an information-gathering technique, specify which one.

1. Your project requires that you set up a campsite on the edge of a cliff. You gather your team members,
including a geologist, a meteorologist, a tracker, and three campsite workers, and lead them in a directed
discussion where they identify as many risks as possible.

Brainstorming (Information Gathering Techniques)

Tool : .

2. You look through your companys asset library and discover that two previous projects involved setting
up camp in this area. You look through the lessons learned to figure out what went wrong, and what could
have been avoided through better planning.
Documentation Review
Tool : .

3. Youve sent a questionnaire to a park ranger and engineers at tent and hiking equipment companies to
gather their opinions on the risk of falling off of a cliff. You remove their names from their responses, copy
them, and send them back to everyone to get their feedback.
Delphi technique (Information Gathering Techniques)
Tool : .

4. Youve identified a risk that is very complex, so you identify the root cause. You use the Ishikawa
technique to gain insight into it.

Tool : Root cause identification (Information Gathering Techniques)/ Diagramming Techniques

.

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5. Youve reviewed your estimates and find that you had assumed that seasonal weather patterns would
hold. If they change, then it could cause serious problems with the project.
SWOT Analysis (Information Gathering Techniques)/ Assumptions Analysis
Tool : .

6. You meet individually with many different people: the sponsor, stakeholders, team members, and
experts. You ask each of them detailed questions about what they think could go wrong on the project.

Interviewing (Information Gathering Techniques)

Tool : .

Quiz 3

Calculate the Expected Monetary Value of your risks

Okay, so you know the probability and impact of each risk. How does that really help you plan?
Well, it turns out that if you have good numbers for those things, you can actually figure out how
much those risks are going to cost your project. You can do that by calculating the Expected
Monetary Value (or EMV) of each risk:

Start with the probability and impact of each risk.

Risk Probability Impact
Risk Probability Impact
High winds 35% cost $48 to replace equipment
Mudslide 5% lose $750 in damage costs
Wind generator is 15% save $800 in battery costs
usable
Truck rental 10% cost $350 for last-minute rental
unavailable

Take the first risk and multiply the probability by the impact. For opportunities,
use a positive cost. For threats, use a negative one. Then do the same for the
rest of the risks.
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High winds: 35% x - 48 = - 16.80
Mudslide: 5% x - 750 = - 37.50
Wind generator: 15% x 800 = 120.00
Truck rental: 10% x - 350 = - 35.00
Now that youve calculated the EMV for each of the risks, you can add
them up to find the total EMV for all of them.
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EMV = - 16.80 + - 37.50 + 120.00 + - 35.00 = - 30.70

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Youll need to know how to do EMV calculations for the test. Give them a shot nowtheyre
pretty easy once you get the hang of them.

Take a look at this table of risks.

Impact
Risk Probability Impact
Navigation equipment failure 15% Costs$300 due to getting lost
Unseasonably warm weather 8% Saves $500 in excavation costs
Wild animals eat rations 10% Costs $100 for replacements

1. Calculate the EMV for each of these three risks.

= 15% $300 = $45

= 8% $500 = $40

= 10% $100 = $10

2. If these are the only risks on the project, calculate the total EMV.

Total EMV = $45 + $45 $10 = $15

3. The latest weather report came out, and there is now a 20% chance of unseasonably
warm weather. Whats the new EMV for the project?

Unseasonably warm weather = 20% $500 = $100

Total EMV = $45 + $100 $10 = $45

4. Now the cost of replacement rations goes up to $150. Whats the new EMV for the
project?

Wild animals eat rations = 10% $150 = $15

Total EMV = $45 + $100 $15 = $40

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Quiz 4

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Looking at the decision tree on the facing page, see if you can figure out the expected monetary value
depending on the decisions the team makes.

1. You hear a weather report that says theres now a 45% chance of high winds. Does it still make sense to
buy the heavier tent?
EMV of Choosing the Havier Tent = $350 + (45% $48) + (55% $10) = $377.1

EMV of Choosing the Lighter Tent = $130 + (45% $953) + (55% $15) = $567.1

Hence Choose Heavier Tent ($567.1 > $377.1)

2. If you dont buy the heavier tent, then you have room to take along a wind generator that can power your
equipment, and that will save you $1,100 in portable batteries if theres a heavy wind. If theres still a 45%
chance of high winds, does it still make sense to buy the heavier tent?
EMV of Choosing the Havier Tent = $350 + (45% $48) + (55% $10) = $377.1

EMV of Choosing the Lighter Tent = $130 + (45% $147) + (55% $15) = $72.1

Hence Choose Lighter Tent ($377.1 > $72.1)

Quiz 5

Which risk response technique is being used in these situations? Match each technique to its
scenario.
Mitigate If the weathers good, then theres a chance you could see a meteor shower. If the
team gets a photo that wins the meteor photo contest, you can get extra funding.
You have your team stay up all night with their telescopes and cameras ready.
Avoid There is high probability of water damage to some of your equipment, so you
buy insurance to avoid losses
Accept You hear that its going to rain for the first three days of your trip, so you bring
waterproof tents and indoor projects for the team to work on in the meantime.
Transfer You read that theres a major bear problem in the spring on the cliff where you
are planning to work. You change your project start date to happen in the fall.
Exploit On your way up the cliff, you meet another team that is looking to survey the
area. You offer to do half of the surveying work while they do the other half and
then trade your findings with one another.
Share Theres always the chance that someone could make a mistake and fall off the
cliff. No matter how much you plan for the unexpected, sometimes mistakes
happen.
Enhance About 10 years ago a really rare bird, the black-throated blue warbler, was seen
on this cliff. If you could get a picture of it, it would be worth a lot of money. So,
you bring special seeds that you have read are really attractive to this bird, and
you set up lookout points around the cliff with cameras ready to get the shot.

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