Capital Structure

2016 Proceedings of the Academy of Finance
Capital Structure and US Financial Crisis: A Survey of Oil & Gas Industry
Ashrafee Hossain* and Dao Xuan Nguyen**
Abstract
We examine the relationship between financial leverage and performance with respect to
profitability and stock returns. Our data consists of ten largest U.S. companies from the oil and
gas industry for a ten-year period from 2004 to 2013. The results suggest that leverage has a
strong negative influence on performance, and that the results are more prominent during the
financial crisis. These results hold even after controlling for different firm specific variables.
1. Introduction
Capital structure is an important concept of corporate finance. Capital structure is defined as

the companys use of debt and equity to finance its investment and daily operation (Mujahid and
Akhtar, 2014). An effective combination of internal and external resources would decrease the
cost of capital, and thus can increase a firms market value. Because one of the most important
objectives of the management is to maximize shareholder value, they have to find ways to
effectively manage capital structure. However, the decision on capital structure is always one of
the most challenging tasks faced by the finance management (Pouraghajan et al., 2012).
Therefore, it is important to examine how changes of capital structure would influence firms
performances and profitability. The objective of this paper is to address this concern.
The Modigliani and Miller theorem, introduced in 1958, is one of the first fundamental and
important theories of capital structure. The original theory proposes that in perfect markets, a
firm market value is independent of capital structure choices and dividend policies. As the
concept undermines impacts of market imperfections such as taxes, transactions costs,
bankruptcy and agency costs, adverse selection etc., it is debatable. Thus, following research
after the M&M proposition has incorporated those factors in order to better reflect their impacts
on capital structure (Mujahid and Sorin, 2009).
In the past decade, the relationship between firm capital structure and performance has been
investigated in many research reports. Collected results are different depending on the industry
and the timeframe. For instance, in the financial sector, Skopljak and Luo (2012) find that an
increase in debt can exacerbate firm performance at a higher leverage, but improve firm
performance at a lower leverage. Similarly, in non-financial sectors, such as iron and steel
Ashrafee Hossain*, Assistant Professor of Finance, Faculty of Business Administration,

Memorial University of Newfoundland, (709) 864-8510; [email protected]; Dao Xuan
Nguyen**, Graduate Student, Faculty of Business Administration, Memorial University of
Newfoundland.
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(Banerjee and De, 2014), oil and gas (Sabir and Malik, 2012), and textile (Mujahid and Akhtar,
2014), both concurrent and opposite results have been reported. For instance, it has been reported
that there is a negative relationship between return-on-asset and firm performance (Banerjee and
De, (2014), Saeedi and Mahmoodi (2011), and Ebrati et al. (2013)). However, Saeedi and
Mahmoodi (2011) find no significant relationship, while Gabrijelcic et al. (2014) identify a
positive relation between return-on-equity and leverage ratio.
While there are many reports discussing the relationship between firm capital structure and
financial performance, there is still limited research with regards to the oil and gas industry
generally, and in the U.S. specifically. Furthermore, while most research looks at the relationship
between capital structure and firm performance through a long timeframe, there is little
consideration for how this relationship changes in each stage of the financial crisis. Therefore, in
addition to examining the aforementioned impact, this paper also looks at how it varies in
different stages before, during and after the crisis.
In this study, we have developed three hypotheses to examine the relationship between a
firms financial leverage and performance. Overall, the results reveal a negative relationship
between the financial leverage and firm profitability. The testing process, results and their
implications are discussed in the remaining parts of this paper. Part II discusses the development
of the hypotheses. Part III and IV describe the data and testing methods, respectively. Part V
discusses the results and their implications. Finally, part VI summarizes the research and
concludes.
2. Hypothesis development
2.1 The relation of capital structure and firm performance
There are various financial theories that can be used to explain firms relation of capital
structure and performance. Among available theories, the agency cost theory proposed by Jensen
and Meckling (1976) is a fundamental concept that is most widely used. According to Jensen
amd Meckling (1976), agency costs arise when a principal (shareholder) hires an agency
(manager) to act on his behalf (to manage the company). When the principal and agency are two
separate entities, they will have different interests. In this case, shareholders wish managers to
run the company in a way that can maximize shareholder value. Managers, on the contrary, will
manage to gain the most benefits and incentives for themselves. This creates a conflict of interest
between shareholders and managers. As a result, agency costs occurs. Agencies costs are relating
expenses used as incentives to encourage managers to properly operate the company in the best
interests of shareholders and the firm (Jensen and Meckling, 1976).
Another source of agency costs is the conflict between debt owners and shareholders. As the
management is usually in favor of the shareholders rather than debt holders, the latter has to
protect themselves by imposing higher interest rates or stricter covenants. Because the
management generally has more internal information than shareholders, debt holders and other
parties, this creates information asymmetry. When the information asymmetry increases, so do
the default risks and agency costs (Jensen and Meckling, 1976).
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Agency costs impact firm performance in two different ways. In the negative scenario,
increasing leverage encourages management to engage in riskier projects at the expense of debt
holders. This action also exposes the firm to higher interests and default risks, which are
detrimental to firm performance. Thus, there is a negative relationship between higher leverage
and firm performance (Soumadi and Hayajneh, 2012). In the second scenario, bankruptcy risk is
viewed from a different perspective. As the management wants to protect their benefits, they are
motivated to perform better to avoid bankruptcy and associated costs, which in turns improves
the firms performance. Considering specific characteristics of the U.S. oil and gas industry, the
negative impact may outweigh the positive impact. Firstly, because firms generally depend on
the discovery of new resources to operate, it is inevitable that they have to spend a large amount
of their funds to invest in assets and technologies. Nevertheless, although initial capital
investments are usually intensive, the exploration results are highly unpredictable. Therefore, the
industry is associated with high risks and high returns. Furthermore, once natural sources have
been found, additional investments will be required to maintain production (Committee on Price
Research, 1939). Finally, as required by environmental regulations, firms have to spend on
research and development to have more sustainable and efficient production processes (ICF
International, 2007). All these conditions would require many expenses from firms.
Secondly, on average, the U.S. interest rates have been stably low (World Bank, n.d).
Although before the crisis, interest rates highly fluctuated, they have been significantly reduced
since 2008 and have been quite stable in the past few years (see Figure 1). This in turn has
reduced related default risks for firms.
Figure 1: The U.S. real interest rates
Source: World Bank (n.d)
Thirdly, larger oil and gas firms have shown much higher stability and survival rates (Mansell
et al., 2012). Taking all factors into consideration, we can assume that the management would be
more likely to take advantage of the low costs of capital and engage in riskier actions, and thus
exposing firms to more negative performance consequences.
Finally, during the crisis period (2007 2009), due to decreasing demand, firms did not
perform as well as they would in normal economic conditions. In addition, they also had to
reduce leverage, which resulted in higher cost of capital (Watts, 2009). As a result, this would
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lead to a stronger negative relationship between capital structure and firm performance during
the crisis period.
2.2 Proposed hypotheses
Based on the above analysis, the following hypotheses are proposed:
H1: In the pre-crisis period (2004-2006), more leveraged capital structure (higher D/E ratio)
will have a negative relationship with firm performance.
H2: During the financial crisis (2007-2009), more leveraged capital structure (higher D/E
ratio) will have a strong negative relationship with firm performance. This phenomenon is due to
the decline of firms profitability and unstable financial market and higher costs of capital.
H3: After the financial crisis (2010-2013), more leveraged capital structure (higher D/E ratio)
will have a negative relationship with firm performance. The recovery of the economy is
expected to alleviate the strong negative relationship between the two types of firms mentioned
above.
3. Data description
3.1 Population and samplings:
Data for this research is secondary data, which is collected from financial statements of top
ten oil and gas companies in the U.S. based on market capitalization. Financial data for a 10-year
period from 2004 to 2013 [covering both pre and post-financial crisis] will be taken into account.
The population will contain a total of 100 observations. The sample size for each sub-sample are
n = 30 for the pre-crisis period, n = 30 for the crisis period, and n = 40 for the post-crisis period.
Proposed companies based on market capitalization (Statista, 2015) are:
1. Exxon Mobil
2. Chevron
3. ConocoPhillips
4. Occidental Petroleum
5. Eog Resources
6. Phillips 66
7. Anadarko Petroleum
8. Apache
9. Valero Energy
10. Devon Energy
3.2 Data measures:
Accounting measures taken from a sample firms financial statements are: leverage
ratio, return-on-asset (ROA), return-on-equity (ROE), market-adjusted stock return, cash ratio,
fixed-asset ratio, current ratio, and earnings-per-share (EPS). Financial ratios are calculated as
follows:
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Leverage ratio= (Total debt)/ (Total equity)

ROA= (Net income)/ (Total asset)
ROE= (Net income)/ (Total equity)
Market-adjusted stock return=Annual stock return-Annual market return (S&P 500
index)
Cash ratio= (Total cash and cash equivalent)/ (Total asset)
Fixed asset ratio= (Tangible fixed assets)/ (Total asset)
Current ratio= (Current asset)/ (Current liability)
Descriptive statistics of collected data are shown in table 1. Statistics include calculations for
independent variables, which are average value, in million US Dollars, of cash, fixed assets,
current assets, total assets, total debts, current liabilities, and shareholders equity. Descriptive
statistics also show fixed-asset ratio, current ratio, cash ratio, and earning per share.
In order to calculate the parameters for the Hi D/E and Low D/E column, ten-year data
for each sample firm is collected and, based on their leverage ratios, sorted from high to low on a
yearly basis. For each year, the desired ratios are obtained by averaging data from the five
highest and five lowest D/E firms. Average data of the overall ten year for each sub group of
high D/E and low D/E firms is then averaged again to obtain the general ten-year results. Data
presented in the Overall column is obtained by averaging the whole sample by yearly and then
ten-year basis.
In panel A, we present the data by pre-crisis (2004-2006), during crisis (2007-2009), and
post-crisis (2010-2013) periods.
As can be seen in table 1, panel A, in terms of absolute values, companies experience a

gradual growth of assets over the ten-year period, as all accounting measures increase from 2004
to 2013, except for a drop of cash during the crisis period. Among the ratios, fixed asset and cash
ratio are the most stable. The difference between highest and lowest ratio of fixed asset and cash
is only 0.02 and 0.01 point, respectively. On the contrary, EPS ratio shows the most fluctuation
over the ten-year period. In particular, fixed asset and current asset ratio have a similar trend.
Both are highest during the crisis period, with 0.68 and 1.63, respectively; and lowest before the
crisis, with 0.66 and 1.16, respectively. Cash ratio (0.05) is highest after the crisis and lowest
during the crisis (0.04). EPS performs the best before the crisis with 6.49, then suddenly drops to
3.91 during the crisis, and bounces back at 6.02 post crisis.
Panel B divides data correspondent to high-leverage, low-leverage ratio and overall

performance. Panel C breaks down the data on a yearly basis.
In general, lower-leveraged firms have more assets, demonstrated by higher amount of all
absolute values of accounting measures, i.e., cash, fixed assets, current assets, total assets,
current liabilities, and shareholders equity. However, highly leveraged firms maintain higher
proportion of fixed assets, demonstrated by higher fixed asset ratios 0.69, compared to 0.65 of
low leveraged firms. In contrast, low D/E firms seem to have better liquidity, with higher current
and cash ratios of 1.55 and 0.06, respectively. For high D/E firms, current ratio is only 1.18 and
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cash ratio is 0.04. Finally, low leveraged firms have significantly better EPS performance, with
EPS of 7.39 compared to only 3.96 of more leveraged firms.
For the overall ten-year period, all ratios increase. Overall, firms seem to maintain a
considerably stable asset structure in their financial statements. Fixed assets are always
maintained at a stable level of 67% of total asset. The lowest is observed in 2005 at 0.63 and
highest is in 2008 at 0.70. Similarly, cash ratio is quite stable over the ten-year period. For other
ratios, the most unusual fluctuation is observed in 2008 when current ratio significantly increases
and is higher than the ten-year average by 77%. EPS also drops dramatically compared to 2007,
down from 7.59 to 3.3, and are lowest in 2009 with 0.84.
Table 2 depicts the level of leverage for the ten-year period, broken down in annual and sub-
period term. As can be seen from the table, the leverage is highest before the crisis with overall
leverage ratio of 0.33. It declines to 0.29 during the crisis and increases to 0.32 in the recovery
period. However, the leverage fluctuates more before the crisis than after the crisis. Before the
crisis, overall leverage ranges from 0.25 to 0.37 while after the crisis it ranges from 0.31 to 0.34.
The leverage falls to 0.27 in 2007, which is also the lowest of ten years.
The difference between higher leverage and lower leverage ratio gradually increased over the
ten-year period. For the pre-crisis period, the difference is 0.27. It creases to 0.31 during the
crisis and 0.34 after the crisis. The range of high leverage ratio is from 0.32 to 0.58 and the range
of low leverage ratio is 0.10 to 0.25.
In general, high-risk firms, i.e., firms having higher leverage, tend to be riskier after the crisis,
as their average D/E ratio increases from 0.45 to 0.49. On the contrary, conservative firms, i.e.,
firms using less leverage, seem to be more careful in funding with debts, as their ratio slightly
decreases from 0.33 to 0.32. During the crisis period, all firms reduce their leverage, but riskier
firms only reduce their leverage ratio by 0.02 point while low-leveraged firms reduce their
leverage ratio by 0.06 point.
In sum, it is suggested that the use of leverage after the crisis seems to be more stable
compared to before the crisis and the difference in the use of debt between higher and lower
leveraged firms are extended after the crisis.
4. Methodology
In order to examine the hypotheses, we use the Debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio (leverage ratio) as
our fundamental measurement for the financial leverage. The relationship between financial
leverage and performance is tested by looking at fluctuations of operating and stock performance
measures against the leverage ratio. The primary performance measures are return on assets
(ROA) and market-adjusted stock returns. In addition, other alternate variable (such as ROE) is
also used to check robustness of our results. Finally, our data is analyzed by using univariate
analysis and regression models.
The following model is developed for testing each of the financial measure:
= 0 + 1 1() + 2 2() + 3 3() + 4 4() + 5 5() + 6 6()
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Where:
Y = Dependent variable (ROA, ROE, or Market-adjusted stock return)
1()= Leverage ratio at time t
2() = Cash ratio at time t
3() = Current ratio at time t
4() = Fixed-asset ratio at time t
5() = EPS at time t
6() = Lagged ROA, lagged ROE, or lagged Market-adjusted stock return at time t
5. Discussion of results
5.1 Univariate analysis
As discussed earlier, we use return-on-asset, return-on-equity and market-adjusted stock

return as measures to evaluate firms performance because these parameters describe the changes
in firms profitability according to changes of capital structure. In our report, ROA is the key
parameter. We use ROE and market adjusted stock returns to check for robustness.
Table 3, 4 and 5 show results of ROA, ROE and market-adjusted stock returns, respectively.
In general, there is a negative relationship between financial performance and D/E ratio, where
higher leverage results in lower financial ratios. In order to test the difference, we also use 5%
level of significance for our t-test.
In table 3, ROA results show negative relationship between leverage and firm performance. In
panel A, we observe that low leverage firms outperform their high leverage counterparts in each
of the ten years. The intensity of underperformance is more prominent during the crisis years
(2007-2009) as we describe it. The largest underperformance came in year 2008 (-4.93%), the
peak of the financial crisis. The lowest difference is depicted in year 2004, when the economy
was quite sound. In panel B, we report the results based on the periods, as we break it down to
pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. All three periods show negative relationship between
leverage and firm performance. The negative impact is strongest during the crisis period as we
have hypothesized earlier in this paper. Overall, the high leveraged firms are still struggling in
the post-crisis recovery period; the low leverage firms have not reached their pre-crisis
performance level yet. A decline in the oil prices could be working as a contributing factor. A
second explanation for the above difference in performance is the higher interest rates from 2005
to 2008, as can be seen in Figure 1 above. Higher interest rates have led to higher costs of
capital, affecting firm profitability. In addition to capital structure, considering the fall of
profitability in the period 2008-2010, another important factor is the significant drop of oil price
in 2008 (see Figure 2), which severely deteriorates firms profitability.
In table 4, for robustness purpose, we analyzed the ROEs for the entire sample and undertake
similar analysis as in table 3. The ROE results did not pan out to be as strong as the ones in
ROA. However, our findings are qualitatively similar to that of ROA. We consistently find that
leverage has a negative relationship with firm performance (ROE) for each of the 10 years, and
that the intensity is strongest during the crisis period. As a matter of fact the highest difference
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between low and high leverage firms performance is captured in 2008 (-35.5%), the peak of the
crisis. We had exactly the same finding from our ROA results.
Figure 2: Oil price in the U.S.
Source: http://www.eia.gov
In panel B, we report the period by period breakdown of the ROE results. Similar to the ROA
results, we find that the negative relation is strongest during the crisis. We also find that high
D/E firms are struggling to recover from the crisis in the post crisis period, and therefore, the gap
of performance between high and low D/E firms has not reached its pre-crisis level yet. These
results are qualitatively similar to that of the ROA results.
In table 5, we report the market adjusted stock returns for the entire sample. We examine the
year by year and period by period performances of the entire sample similar to the analyses
undertaken in tables 3 and 4. The stock return results are more volatile than the operating
performance results reported in tables 3 and 4. However, the pattern is consistent with the
operating performance results. For example, the worst gap is still observed during the crisis.
In panel B, we notice that the pre-crisis result is not statistically significant. However, the
crisis period gap is strongly negative and the performance gap is decreasing in the post-crisis
period. As was in the case with ROA and ROE, high D/E firms are struggling to get back to their
pre-crisis performance level.
In summary, the performance analyses have provided strong evidence to support all three of
our hypotheses. Though market return results do not support our first hypothesis, ROA and ROE
results consistently show that low D/E firms outperformed their high D/E counterparts during the
pre-crisis period, and thus support our first hypothesis. All three of our performance measures
strongly support hypotheses 2 and 3that is the highest gap persists during the crisis period, and
the gap still exists in the post-crisis period but the gap is much smaller than the crisis period one.
This result also highlights the importance of choosing an effective capital structure. For instance,
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debt capital may be cheaper than equity capital in certain circumstances. However, too much
leverage may also reduce firms profitability.
5.2 Regression analysis

Next, we undertake some cross-sectional analyses to ensure that our univariate results were
not influenced by other variables. In table 6, we report the regression analysis where ROA is the
dependent variable. We employ leverage ratio (D/E), cash ratio, current ratio, fixed asset ratio,
EPS, and lagged ROA as our independent variables. The definitions of these variables are
provided in section III of this paper.
The regression results show a negative relationship between D/E ratio and ROA. In addition
to D/E ratio, other meaningful factors that determine ROA performance are cash ratio and EPS.
In particular, cash and EPS are positively related to firm ROA performance. In sum, the
regression results have confirmed our findings through the univariate analysis in table 3.
In tables 7 and 8, we report the regression analyses results with ROE and market adjusted
returns as the dependent variables, respectively. These results are qualitatively similar to the
findings in table 6. We find that for both ROE and return regression analyses, performance is
negatively related to D/E ratio, and that it is positively related to cash ratio and EPS.
In summary, both univariate and cross-sectional have provided strong evidence to support our
hypotheses. These results also agree with M&Ms theory on agency costs. Results on ROA
performance also conform to previous findings by Jiraporn et al. (2011), Sabir and Malik (2012),
Ebrati et al. (2013), Gabrijelcic et al. (2014), and Saeedi and Mahmoodi (2011). On the contrary,
with regards to ROE, the research shows different result from that found by Gabrijelcic et al.
(2014).
6. Conclusion
Financial leverage has a negative impact on firm performance, especially profitability

indicators. Three performance measures (ROA, ROE, and returns) consistently confirm this
negative relationship. Our analyses of these measures confirm our hypotheses that there is a
negative relationship between leverage and performance, and that this relationship is strongest
during the worldwide financial crisis (2007-09).
In conclusion, the study highlights the important impact of capital structure on firm
performance. As the oil and gas industry is capital intensive, it may be more economical-sound
to finance investments from external sources. However, higher leverage may also deteriorate
firms profitability. Thus, firms should carefully consider their financing strategies.
As we focus only on the oil & gas industry, our results may not be generalized. Secondly, our
main focus is the US market as it is worlds biggest economy and the birth place of the global
recession of the late 2000s. A future study could be undertaken on other industries as well as on
other economies of the world.
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Table 1 Panel A
Variables Pre-crisis Crisis Post-crisis
2004-06 2007-09 2010-13
Cash (millions of dollar) 5,114.91 4,761.64 5,242.24
Fixed assets (millions of dollar) 37,679.05 50,324.29 66,988.01
Current assets (millions of dollar) 16,319.10 20,818.81 21,175.36
Total assets (millions of dollar) 66,211.67 84,018.44 102,710.05
Total debts (millions of dollar) 7,458.37 8,725.85 11,276.38
Current liabilities (millions of dollar) 12,924.68 14,997.36 17,542.72
Shareholders' equity (millions of dollar) 33,110.13 41,428.32 51,667.15
Fixed asset/Total assets 0.66 0.68 0.67
Current assets/current liabilities 1.16 1.63 1.29
Cash/Total assets 0.05 0.04 0.05
EPS 6.49 3.91 6.02
No of Observations 100
Table 1 Panel B
Variables Hi D/E Low D/E Overall
Cash (millions of dollar)
2,000.75 8,629.69 5,065.74
Fixed assets (millions of dollar)
35,145.09 75,148.09 53,641.10
Current assets (millions of dollar)
9,418.22 31,573.30 19,661.97
Total assets (millions of dollar)
55,193.35 123,307.84 86,687.15
Total debts (millions of dollar)
10,584.31 8,082.27 9,427.45
Current liabilities (millions of dollar)
8,451.26 23,616.24 15,463.02
Shareholders' equity (millions of dollar)
24,760.53 64,872.80 43,307.06
Fixed asset/Total assets
0.69 0.65 0.67
Current assets/current liabilities
1.18 1.55 1.35
Cash/Total assets
0.04 0.06 0.05
EPS
3.96 7.39 5.55
Table 1 Panel C (part 1)

Variables 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Cash (millions of dollar)
4,253.73 5,686.98 5,404.03 5,644.69 5,427.92
Fixed assets (millions of dollar)
31,463.33 35,264.46 46,309.34 48,612.36 50,021.03
Current assets (millions of dollar)
13,512.98 17,046.67 18,397.67 20,677.89 25,039.89
Total assets (millions of dollar)
54,845.17 64,439.92 79,349.91 86,499.66 81,556.03
Total debts (millions of dollar)
6,459.84 6,098.45 9,816.83 8,068.44 8,669.22
Current liabilities (millions of dollar)
10,258.57 12,550.85 15,964.62 16,691.69 14,244.71
Shareholders' equity (millions of dollar)
26,907.27 33,049.81 39,373.30 43,322.34 39,897.39
Fixed asset/Total assets
0.67 0.63 0.68 0.66 0.70
Current assets/current liabilities
1.19 1.29 1.00 1.11 2.40
Cash/Total assets
0.05 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.04
EPS
5.27 6.66 7.55 7.59 3.30
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Table 1 Panel C (part 2)

Variables 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cash (millions of dollar) 3,212.31 5,355.87 5,263.77 5,012.14 5,348.52
Fixed assets (millions of dollar) 52,339.47 62,250.21 63,609.58 67,166.27 74,452.18
Current assets (millions of dollar) 16,738.67 20,811.00 22,217.00 21,240.10 20,396.90
Total assets (millions of dollar) 83,999.63 98,131.25 100,957.98 102,466.96 108,826.12
Total debts (millions of dollar) 9,439.89 10,583.48 10,091.82 11,061.52 13,299.42
Current liabilities (millions of dollar) 14,055.68 16,679.34 19,382.12 16,595.21 17,427.87
Shareholders' equity (millions of dollar) 41,065.23 49,170.74 49,949.29 51,571.98 55,726.95
Fixed asset/Total assets 0.68 0.68 0.65 0.67 0.68
Current assets/current liabilities 1.37 1.34 1.19 1.34 1.31
Cash/Total assets 0.04 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.07
EPS 0.84 5.63 7.25 5.61 5.55
Table 2 Summary statistics

Panel A Breakdown by year
Diff
Year Hi D/E Low D/E Overall
(High-Low)
2004 0.46 0.25 0.37 0.21
2005 0.32 0.17 0.25 0.15
2006 0.58 0.12 0.37 0.46
2007 0.40 0.10 0.27 0.30
2008 0.42 0.12 0.29 0.30
2009 0.46 0.14 0.32 0.32
2010 0.47 0.16 0.34 0.31
2011 0.50 0.14 0.32 0.37
2012 0.50 0.15 0.33 0.35
2013 0.47 0.15 0.31 0.32
Table 2 - Panel B Breakdown by period

Period Hi D/E Low D/E Overall Diff
Pre-crisis period 0.45 0.18 0.33 0.27
2004-2006
Crisis period 0.43 0.12 0.29 0.31

2007-2009
Post-crisis period 0.49 0.15 0.32 0.34

2010-2013
Table 3 Operating performance Return on assets (ROA)

Diff
Year Hi D/E Low D/E Overall t-stat
(High-Low)
2004 9.4% 11.7% 10.4% -2.3% -1.57*
2005 12.1% 15.6% 13.6% -3.5% -1.63*
2006 10.1% 14.4% 12.0% -4.3% -2.50**
2007 9.0% 13.3% 10.9% -4.2% -2.32**
2008 -2.6% 16.5% 5.9% -19.0% -4.93***
2009 -2.5% 6.1% 1.3% -8.5% -3.46***
2010 3.5% 10.7% 6.7% -7.3% -3.73***
2011 4.7% 11.2% 8.0% -6.5% -2.27**
2012 3.3% 9.0% 6.2% -5.7% -2.87**
2013 4.4% 7.4% 5.9% -3.0% -1.59*
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Diff
Period Hi D/E Low D/E Overall t-stat
(High-Low)
Pre-crisis period 10.5% 13.9% 12.0% -3.4% -2.40**
2004-2006
Crisis period 1.3% 11.9% 6.0% -10.6% -2.15**
2007-2009
Post crisis period 4.0% 9.5% 6.7% -5.6% -5.96***
2010-2013
Table 4 Robustness check Return on equity

Diff
(High-Low)
2004 20.3% 23.4% 21.7% -3.2% -1.13
2005 24.1% 28.7% 26.2% -4.7% -1.46*
2006 23.1% 26.1% 24.4% -3.0% -1.68*
2007 19.9% 24.2% 21.8% -4.3% -0.99
2008 -5.8% 29.7% 10.0% -35.5% -3.67***
2009 -5.0% 11.1% 2.2% -16.0% -3.02***
2010 7.3% 19.1% 12.5% -11.9% -3.05***
2011 9.5% 20.6% 15.1% -11.0% -1.63*
2012 7.7% 17.8% 12.8% -10.1% -2.34**
2013 9.9% 13.9% 11.9% -4.0% -1.01
Table 4 Panel B Breakdown by period

Diff
(High-Low)
Pre-crisis period 22.5% 26.1% 24.1% -3.6% -1.87*
2004-2006
Crisis period 3.0% 21.7% 11.3% -18.6% -1.85*
2007-2009
Post crisis period 8.6% 17.8% 13.1% -9.2% -5.87***

20102013
Table 5 Stock performance Market-adjusted stock returns

Diff
(High-Low)
2004 40.5% 17.6% 30.3% 22.9% 1.63
2005 52.4% 0.9% 29.5% 51.5% 2.45**
2006 -12.4% 3.0% -5.5% -15.3% -1.24
2007 33.5% 30.8% 32.3% 2.7% 0.26
2008 -8.0% 13.7% 1.6% -21.7% -2.49**
2009 -8.3% -7.7% -8.0% -0.6% -0.03
2010 11.5% 5.0% 8.6% 6.4% 0.64
2011 9.7% 14.6% 11.9% -4.9% -2.44**
2012 -9.4% 10.1% -0.7% -19.6% -3.10***
2013 19.6% 9.6% 15.2% 10.0% 1.75*
12

Diff
Period Hi D/E Low D/E Overall t-stat
(High-Low)
Pre-crisis period 26.9% 7.2% 18.1% 19.7% 0.96
2004-2006
Crisis period 5.7% 12.3% 8.7% -6.5% -2.37**

2007-2009
Post crisis period 7.8% 9.8% 8.7% -2.0% -2.31**

2010-2013
Table 6 Cross-section analysis of ROA

Variables Coefficient t-stat
D/E -0.241 -4.75***
cash ratio 0.214 4.57***
current ratio 0.053 1.22
fixed asset ratio 0.093 2.01**
EPS 0.617 12.61***
lagged ROA 0.065 1.12
No. of Observation 100
R-square 0.845
F-stat 36.89
Significance 0.000
Table 7 - Cross-section analysis of ROE

D/E -0.048 -1.81*
cash ratio 0.188 3.66***
fixed asset ratio 0.013 0.26
EPS 0.699 12.90***
lagged ROE 0.117 1.95
R-square 0.81
F-stat 29.23
Significance 0.000
Table 8 - Cross-section analysis of stock returns

D/E -0.013 -2.12**
cash ratio 0.010 3.10***
fixed asset ratio -0.014 -0.13
EPS 0.025 0.23
R-square 0.165
F-stat 2.40
Significance 0.007
13
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World Bank Energy Week.
14
Corporate Governance and Performance of Non-Financial Institutions in Pakistan
Rizwan Ali*, Yanping Liu**, Youyuan Zheng ***
ABSTRACT
In this study, we examine the effects of corporate governance practices on their financial
performance of Pakistani firms. On the bases of agency theory, MM theorem, and theory of firm
we suggest that corporate governance effects firm performance directly as well as indirectly via
mediation of capital structure and dividend policy. The model was tested using a cross-lagged
analysis of 100 non-financial companies with the structural equation modeling (SEM). The study
concludes that corporate governance does improve financial performance by exploiting capital
structure and dividend policy. The findings of study highlight the importance of corporate
governance practices for peer firms to restructure their debt and dividend policies for the
enhancement of their financial performance.
KEYWORDS: Corporate Governance, Financing Decisions, Firm Performance, Cross-lag analysis.
JEL Classification: G34, G32, L25
Rizwan Ali*, PhD Student, Xidian University, Xian, China, +86-13028596197; [email protected]
Yanping Liu**, Professor of Finance, Chief Financial Officer, Xidian University, Xian, China, +86-29-81891807; [email protected]
Youyuan Zheng***, Professor of Finance, Department of Economics & Management, Xidian University, Xian, China, +86 -15102900793;
[email protected]
15
Corporate Governance and Performance of Non-Financial Institutions in Pakistan

1. INTRODUCTION
Corporate governance is the set of laws, processes, policies, and institutions affecting the way
a company is directed, administered or controlled (Cadbury, 1992). The term corporate
governance came into popular use in the 1980's. The key objective of corporate governance is to
ensure accountability of related parties and transparency in both financial and non-financial
transactions (OECD 1999, revised 2004).
Corporate governance is vital for organizational sustainability and absence of it results in

financial instability and depression (Konzelmann et al., 2010). It is also concerned with the
duties and responsibilities of a companys board of directors to successfully lead the company,
and their relationship with its shareholders and other stakeholder groups. Corporate governance
includes laws, policies to govern private and public firms. It also establishes business
performance measures which collectively govern the relationships among marketplace economy,
corporate directors and entrepreneurs, who invest capital in firms. The purpose of good corporate
governance practices makes positive effects on the capital structure of the firm. Shleifer and
Vishny (1997) examined with the help of these mechanisms, capital structure decision maker of
the firm confirm that they possibly will attain a considerable returns and benefits on their
investments. By means of reliable governance structure, it is significantly easier for goodwill of
corporations towards achieving loans from investors, as a well-designed corporate structure
protects the interest of shareholders, enhances firms transparency and disclosure as well as
reduces the agency conflicts.
Literature review shows that senior management generally prefer to use debt less than the
shareholders expect to avoid further monitoring from the lender and their interest seeking
behaviour tends to lead the financial decision against of shareholders interest (Hart and Moore,
1995; Jensen, 1993). But lack of transparency and accountability of issuing and re-packaging
debt security (see Enron case) in the capital structure generate higher cost and lower cash flow
only. Effective corporate governance can make sure balanced capital structure decision and
sustainable development of the firm protecting the rights of principals (Abdullah, Ahmad and
Roslan, 2012).
This research is an initiative to address the gaps in the literature by examining how and which
corporate governance practices impact the financial performance of firms in developing
countries. This study also explores the relationship among corporate governance, capital
structure, dividend policy and firm performance directly and indirectly in the context of Pakistan.
Furthermore, this study fills the gap by examining the mediating role of capital structure and
dividend policy while corporate governance effecting the firms performance. It elaborates the
direct and indirect effects of corporate governance towards financial decisions and firms
performance which is considered as output at the end of financial year. This study also focuses
on the significance of corporate governance for firms in developing countries because it can lead
to decision-making excellence and help firms to raise capital and attract foreign investors. The
purpose of this paper is to examine the challenges, difficulties and issues hindering effective
development and implementation of corporate governance in Pakistan.
16
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1) CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Jensen and Meckling (1976) explain the ownership structure which helps to reduce the agency
conflicts, for this reason it is supporting the interest of shareholders and ownership of the firm.
Along with the high significance of conflicts between shareholders and internal managers, the
corporate governance mechanisms of the firm are generally considered as an ineffective
measure. Fama and Jensen (1983) also argued that the role of chairman and CEO are supposed to
be considered as separate from each other, the chairman has the chief decision control authority
and CEO has the chief decision executive authority, and the CEO of firm has the responsibility
to control all operations of the organization. However duality is able to increase control as well
as taking decision towards improving the entire process of the firms.
The financial leverage increase engagement of the bond market, credit rating agencies, banks
and financial institutions through covenants in overseeing the functioning of firms to discipline
self-interest and managerial behavior. On the other hand, a strong corporate governance practice
increase firms value and therefore reduce the cost of debt financing, and hence the higher
quality of governance lead to more debt (Jensen and Meckling, 1986). This impact and
relationship between capital structure and governance mechanisms depend on the structure of the
financial market and the extent of debt financing. The following part presents the key evidence
of the effect of individual governance provisions on financial policies. Jensen (1986) conducts a
study considering listed firms of Tehran Stock Exchange as samples and this panel data study
infers that board member size is significantly and positively related to the capital structure
decision.
Wen, Rwegasira and Bilderbeek (2002) examined the impact of the broad structure on the
capital structure choices of Chinese listed firms. Their study suggests that higher corporate
governance of boards influence managers for lower capital structure, but an insignificant
association reveals between the size of the board member and the capital structure. Florackis and
Ozkan (2009) also suggest the strong evidence of a significant effect of corporate governance
practices on capital structure in the United Kingdom, but it also depends on the structure of
corporate governance, and finds a causal relationship between Sarbanes Oxley Act, corporate
governance, and capital structure. They conclude that Oxley act has been developed to enhance
the governance and transparency of firms and it is working as a substitute of capital structure in
resolving agency conflict. Saad (2010) investigated the effect of corporate governance
compliance on financial leverage in Malyasia and this study also confirmed that internal
corporate governance mechanisms and capital structure is closely interrelated. Rehman, Rehman
and Raoof (2010) examined the relationship between corporate governance and capital structure
in Pakistan and their conclusions of the study explained that all independent variables are
positively related with capital structure accepting the ownership concentration which effects
negatively to the capital structure other than generally there is an insignificant relationship
between corporate governance mechanisms and capital structure.
Magdalena (2012) also investigated this proposition through the panel data of listed firms of
the Indonesian Stock Exchanges excluding bank and financial institutions and stated that size of
board of directors negatively influence capital structure decision. It is also evident in the
literature that a significant positive association exists between institutional ownership and
17
financial leverage. Giannetti, Liao and Yu X. (2012) recommended in research conclusion that
good corporate governance practices help the organizations to control their information more
effectively due to which the entire cost of capital reduces and therefore it helps the company to
make valuable and quick capital structure decisions. In this situation of conflicting arguments
and evidences from the literature regarding the relationship between different corporate
governance measure and capital structure, it seems appropriate to revisit this link. Thus study
proposes its testable hypothesis as follows:
H1: Corporate governance measures have positive effects on capital structure of firm.
2.2) CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND DIVIDEND POLICY
Corporate governance has significant effects in resolving the agency problem and the agency
problem strongly influence dividend payment decision and thus it is believed that corporate
governance has influenced on dividend policy. Dividend payments to shareholders discipline
management activities and deter expropriation of managers by reducing free cash flow available
to managers that could be otherwise spent by managers for private benefit and thus reduce the
agency problem (Jensen, 1986).
Short, Zhang, and Keasey (2002) explored the associations in the UK and concluded that
institutional ownership is positively related but managerial ownership is negatively related with
dividend pay-out. Gugler (2003) examined the interrelation between internal governance
mechanisms of corporate governance and dividend payments in Austrian firms through a panel
data set and conjecture that corporate governance mechanism determines dividend pay-out ratios.
Corporations owned majorly by the state provided smooth dividends but the firms with family
controlled ownership provided significantly lower dividends. The family controlled firms tend to
expropriate minority shareholders right by cutting dividend payments and seeking constant
investment opportunities. Hwang, Park, and Park (2004) documented a study on the Korean
business group and examined whether good corporate governance pay higher dividends. Their
research results were in line with the outcome model of corporate governance and dividend
payments. Hu and Kumar (2004) also concluded that internal governance mechanisms
significantly (positively and negatively) impact the likelihood and the level of dividend
payments.
Kowalewski, Stetsyuk, and Talavera, (2008) research findings also support the outcome
model of dividends. Their study particularly focused on Poland where shareholder rights are
highly protected and therefore firms are bound to pay higher dividends. This study also found
evidence of paying generous dividend by firms with weak shareholder rights. Adjaoud and Amar
(2010) looked into the effects of corporate governance on dividend policy in Canada taking the
sample from Toronto Stock Exchanges listed firms over four years time period. The firm level
governance index incorporated different provisions of governance, including shareholder rights
issues. They draw an interesting outcome which supported the outcome model of dividend that
means good governance of firm lead to more dividend income for the shareholders.
Jiraporn, Kim, and Kim (2011) noted that the dividend policy is positively related to
corporate governance quality. Higher governance quality leads to higher propensity to pay higher
dividends and therefore reducing conflict of interest between agents and management. In such a
18
firm managers take on optimal dividend policy. Although this study opens a new window, but it
contrasts with major previous findings and recommendations that good governance and dividend
play a substitution role. However, the implication of this finding is subject to availability of
finance and regulatory environment. Firms facing lower flexibility of finance and regulated
properly pay lower dividends. This finding is more similar to the outcome hypothesis of
governance. In a study of the emerging market (Abdullah, Ahmad, and Roslan, 2012) examined
the effects of ownership structure on the dividend payment decision and concluded that dividend
plays a monitoring role and also has important implications in resolving the agency problem.
OConnor (2012) also examined the issue of internal governance provisions taking the sample
of 220 firms from twenty one emerging market economies. He inferred that higher dividend
payments are the outcome of quality corporate governance. He also found that in the emerging
markets lack of accountability and transparency of transactions are likely to substitute with the
higher dividend pay-out and through these mechanisms firms want to convey a positive signal to
stakeholders to reduce financial constraints. Thanatawee (2013) conducted a study on dividend
policy and ownership structure with a sample of 1927 observations for a time period of eight
years in Thailand and inferred that dividend policy is heavily influenced by the ownership
structure, particularly organizations with the higher percentage of institutional shareholding
likely to pay the higher dividend. In this situation of conflicting arguments and evidences from
the literature regarding the relationship between different corporate governance measure and
dividend policy, it seems appropriate to revisit this link. Thus study proposes its testable
hypothesis as follows:
H2: Corporate governance measures have positive effects on dividend policy of firm.
2.3) CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND FIRM PERFORMANCE
In the recent empirical and theoretical studies corporate governance leads to firm performance
having significant importance. According to earlier literature, relationship between corporate
governance and firm performance has been extensively considered, but not reaching towards
conclusive results. There is a widely held view that good corporate governance practices are
correlated with enhanced firm performance. Some research studies have related corporate
governance practices to firm valuation using Tobins Q ratio. There are some studies in which
corporate governance indicators and financial performance ratios have been interrelated with
each other. A number of studies have found significant relationship between corporate
governance and firm performance, and some studies which concluded that insignificant
relationship exists between both of them. There are some corporate governance measures that
have no significant relationship with performance measures, and concluded that there is inverse
relationship between them.
Mehran (1995) examined the positive relationship between percentage of compensation

earned by managers and firms performance measured through Tobins Q and return on assets.
Therefore, it can be argued that increase in executives compensation to be expected towards
having positive impact on financial performance of a firm. Klein (1998) concluded in the study
of firm performance and board committee structure that higher proportion of outside directors on
the board has insignificant relationship with firm performance. Gompers, Ishii, and Metrick
(2003) in their study examined the relationship among corporate governance indicators and long-
19
term equity returns, firm value and accounting measures of performance. The results revealed
that the firms which follow good corporate governance practices shows higher equity returns,
higher value and enhanced accounting results as compared to those firms which have poor
corporate governance practices towards controlling and managing the firms activities. Drobetz,
Schillhofer and Zimmermann (2004) illustrated that there is positive relationship between
corporate governance practices and expected stock returns in German publicly listed companies.
Javed and Iqbal (2006) concluded that corporate governance practices not entirely helpful
towards enhancing financial performance of Pakistani listed companies. They further elaborated
that good corporate governance measures expose low production and bad performance of
management all the way through transparent disclosures and transparency standards. Che Haat,
Rahman, and Mahenthiran, (2008) in their study of examining the corporate governance,
transparency and performance of Malaysian firms used hierarchical regression technique on 73
good performing companies and 73 bad performing companies and realized that corporate
governance dynamics contain strong predicting influences on the firm performance in Malaysia,
in general due to debt monitoring and foreign ownership structure.
Kajola (2008) studied four major corporate governance mechanisms mutually. Such as board
size, board composition, chief executive status and audit committee. The research findings
exposed that the relationship between board composition and the two key measures of
performance return on equity, and profit margin, are not statistically proved significant. On the
basis of sampled firms the implications of the study revealed that no relationship exists between
firm performance and corporate governance, when outside directors are the part of overall board
size. Ehikioya (2009) conducted study on corporate governance structure and firm performance
based on listed companies of Nigerian Stock Exchange and concluded that ownership
concentration has positive impact on performance and greater than one family members on the
board showed adverse effect on firm performance.
Renders et al. (2010) found out that there is significant positive relationship between
corporate governance mechanisms and firms performance in a Cross-European study covering
fourteen countries, after controlling sample selection bias and endogeneity. It is further added
that the strong points of this relationship appears after some conditions which basically depends
upon the excellence and value of institutional environment. Lima and Sanvicente (2013)
explains that the main concerns of corporate governance is to determine how a company
minimize its costs that increases due to the agencys conflicts and what strategies managers be
able to make towards improving the firms performance. In this situation of conflicting
arguments and evidences from the literature regarding the relationship between different
corporate governance measure and firm performance, it seems appropriate to revisit this link.
Thus study proposes its testable hypothesis as follows:
H3: Corporate governance measures have positive effects on firm performance.
2.4) CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND FIRM PERFORMANCE
Capital structure is one of the main factors that have an effect on the firms performance.
Capital structure is also referred as financial structure of a firm. An analysis of literature
recognized a perfect orientation regarding the firms performance among the capital structure
20
and the relationship between firm financial performance and capital structure has formed diverse
results. The relationship between capital structure and firm performance on several industries,
which noticeable on elevated measure within variation of characteristics beginning wherever
development, expenditure and demand (Wippern, 1966). In research debt to equity ratio used as
capital structure indicator and earnings to market value of common stock take as a firms
performance indicator. The results shows positive relationship between capital structure and firm
performance, this conventional indication which assumed that shareholders capital can increase
by using external financing.
Hurdle (1974) disclosed that capital structure influence negatively on profitability in

concurrence among the two stages least squares (2SLS) and positively according towards
ordinary least squares (OLS). Lev (1974) argues that organizations with high leverage have a
tendency to illustrate more inconsistency of their accumulation income than comparatively less
levered organizations. An enhancement in the leverage increases the risk of the firms
accumulated income. Jensen and Meckling (1976) examined that the preference of capital
structure might facilitate moderate organization costs. They argued that high utilization of debt
resources can decrease organization expenditure during the risk of bankruptcy, which causes
own losses to managers salaries, standing, and throughout difficulty to produce cash flow to
compensate interests everyday expenditure. On the other hand (Ross, 1977) examined that a firm
aided with enhanced prediction be able to issue additional debt than one with inferior prediction,
for the reason that the issue of debt in the later will outcome in a high possibility of economic
failure because of debt servicing outlay, which is an expensive result for organization.
Accordingly, a high level of debt will be related with a high level of performance for any
organization.
According to Brigham and Gapenski (1996) an optimal capital structure is able to survive in
that condition if there is a tax sheltering profit make available to enhance in debt intensity is
equivalent to the bankruptcy costs. They both also recommend that managers of a firm must be
capable to recognize that when the optimal capital structure is achieved they must be struggling
to continue it on that point. On that level the financing expenditures and cost of capital are
decreased, in this way firm value and performance are growing. On the other hand Chhibber and
Majumdar (1997) achieved that intensity of debt to equity ratio (capital structure) relates
inversely among firms financial performance.
A mixture of capital structure determines which characterized short term debt, long term debt
and total debt related negatively and statistically among firm performance (Abor, 2005). The
conclusion submits to that firms rely on debt particularly, it will not attain tax protections and
after that it leads to enhanced debt expenditure of which the firm describes as the economic
failure risks and decrease the return. Bunkanwanicha, Gupta, and Rokhim (2008) examined the
relationship between debt, decision-making activities and firm performance in Thai and
Indonesian markets. Their results draw attention towards the significance of the country-
particular institutional surroundings in managerial ownership-associated organization harms. In
this situation of conflicting arguments and evidences from the literature regarding the
relationship between different capital structure and firm performance, it seems appropriate to
revisit this link. Thus study proposes its testable hypothesis as follows:
H4: Capital structure of firm has positive effects on firm performance.
21
2.5) DIVIDEND POLICY AND FIRM PERFORMANCE
There are many factors that affect the performance of corporate organizations and one of
those factors is dividend policy. Empirical studies show that firms in developing countries
smooth on their income and therefore, their dividends. The pattern of corporate dividend policies
not only varies over time but also across countries, especially between developed, developing
and emerging capital markets. If the value of a company is the function of its dividend payments,
dividend policy will directly affect the firms cost of capital.
Firm performance in financial terms is able to be measured in different methods, but all these
methods are supposed to exist as comprehensive. Returns generated from operational activities,
operating income or cash flow from operations can be used as well as total unit sales. Demsetz
and Lehn (1985) examines that financial ratios generated from financial statements are a good
source of data to measure financial performance. Liquidity ratio is considered as one of the most
important financial ratios used to measure the firms ability to meet financial obligations as and
when they fall due without disturbing the daily basis common business operations. Liquidity
ratio is exercised for analyses in both purposes such as structurally and operationally. Corporate
performance is at the heart of the managerial function of an organization.
Kale and Noe (1990) suggested that dividend acts as a signal of the stability of the firms
future cash flows. A survey of the extant literature revealed that the key determinants of dividend
decisions include liquidity, after tax earnings of the firm, cash flow considerations, future
earnings, past dividend practices, returns on investment, legal requirements, growth prospects,
inflation and interest rates. Brigham as well submitted that dividends provide perhaps the best
and most reliable signal. According to him, an increase in dividend signals managements
confidence level would be strong towards the future earnings will be strong enough to support
new and higher dividend and vice versa. The issue of dividend policy is a very important one in
the current business environment. Dividend policy is the regulations and guidelines that a
company uses to decide the dividend payments made to shareholders (Nissim and Ziv, 2001).
Velnampy (2006) examined the financial position of the companies and the relationship
between financial position and profitability with the sample of 25 public quoted companies in
Sri-Lanka by using the Altman Original Bankruptcy Forecasting Model. His findings suggested
that out of 25 companies only 4 companies are in the condition of going to bankruptcy in the
near future. Amidu (2007) found that dividend policy affects firm performance especially the
profitability measured by the return on assets. The results showed a positive and significant
relationship between return on assets, return on equity, growth in sales and dividend policy. The
results also showed a statistically significant relationship between profitability and dividend
payout ratio. A study by Howatt, Zuber, Gandar and Lamb, (2009) also concluded that positive
changes in dividends are associated with positive future changes in mean real earnings per share.
Aggrawal and Kyaw (2010) observed that dividend payments and leverage policy are
substitute mechanism for controlling the agencys cost of free cash flow hence, improves
performance. If a firms policy is to pay dividend each year end to shareholders, the level of
activity in the organization will increase to obtain more income and have excess retained
earnings to meet the standard set. Dividend policy has been analyzed for many decades, but no
universally accepted explanation for companies observed dividend behavior has been
22
established (Samuel & Edward, 2011). It has long been a puzzle in corporate finance. In this
situation of conflicting arguments and evidences from the literature regarding the relationship
between different dividend policy and firm performance, it seems appropriate to revisit this link.
Thus study proposes its testable hypothesis as follows:
H5: Dividend policy of firm has positive effects on firm performance
FIG-1: HYPOTHESIZED RESEARCH MODEL
CS D/E
ACS
AGM ROA
BC CG FP
ROE
BS
CEO
DP DR
3.
METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION
3.1) OVERALL POPULATION AND SAMPLE SIZE
We are selecting sample size for the study from Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE), which is the
prime stock exchange of Pakistan having more than 580 listed firms. On behalf of this research
study financial institutions such as Banks, DFIs, Leasing Companies, Insurance Companies,
23
Modaraba Companies, Exchange Companies, and Mutual Funds were not included in the sample
size due to entirely different assets allocation from other industrial firms. In this way all financial
companies were excluded and the population reached to only non-financial listed firms out of
which stratified random sample to be illustrated for analysis. Seven different sectors having
hundred peer firms are included in this study, which enhances the value of study and its analysis.
Given below the sector wise distribution of companies for sample size:
TABLE-1: SECTOR WISE PROFILE OF KSE SAMPLE
NO. SECTORS NUMBER OF FIRMS YEARS 2006-2011

1. Cement 15 90
2. Coke and Refined Petroleum Products 9 54
3. Sugar 15 90
4. Textile 21 126
5. Fuel & Energy 13 78
6. Information, Communication & transport Services 11 66
7. Motor vehicles, trailers and auto parts 16 96
TOTAL 100 600
SOURCE: (BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS)
3.2) DATA COLLECTION
The given research study is quantitative and based on the secondary and panel data which is
generally collected from publicly listed companies. Only those firms are included in sample
which remain listed and performed operations during the study period and the data was available
for all of the years. The annual reports for the period of 2006-2011 were gathered through
companies included in sample size. The data is extracted from the financial statements of these
firms using Balance Sheet Analysis (BSA) published by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).
3.3) DATA ANALYSIS
For this study, data sets are analyzed through SPSS, Microsoft Excel and Smart-PLS. To test
the hypothesis of the relationships; Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) based on cross-lagged
analysis was used to assess the models. Cross-lagged path analysis is basically designed for
panel data which were collected for same individual more than one times. As well cross-lagged
path analysis is widely used to conclude causal relationship in the data from longitudinal
research design.
3.4) STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELS DEVELOPMENT
Therefore, a statistically significant positive association is expected to exist among the

corporate governance, capital structure, dividend policy and firm performance in the
24
aforementioned hypotheses. This study tests the above hypotheses on the basis of the given
measurement, structural and regression models:
MEASUREMENT MODELS
In the hypothesized structural model all indicators shown in squares build and influence their
respective latent constructs shown in circles. These latent constructs can be measured in
mathematical terms such as:
= 11+22+33+ 44+ 55+.. (i)
1 = y11+.. (ii)
2 = y22+..... (iii)
= y33+y44+. (iv)
STRUCTURAL MODELS
The first hypothesis influence of latent exogenous variables, corporate governance measures ()
on latent endogenous variables, capital structure (1) would be measured through:
HYPOTHESIS-1: CG CS 1 = 11+
The second hypothesis influence of latent exogenous variables, corporate governance measures
() on latent endogenous variables, dividend policy (2) would be measured through:
HYPOTHESIS-2: CG DP 2 = 11+
The third hypothesis influence of latent exogenous variables, corporate governance measures ()
on latent endogenous variables, firm performance () would be measured through:
HYPOTHESIS-3: CG FP = 11+
In this way the forth hypothesis influence of capital structure (1) on firm performance () would
be measured through:
HYPOTHESIS-4: CS FP = 1 11+
In this way the fifth and last hypothesis influence of dividend policy ( 2) on firm performance ()
would be measured through:
HYPOTHESIS-5: DP FP = 2 11+
25
While the effects of corporate governance, capital structure and dividend policy on firm
performance would be calculated through:
FP = +(CG)11+(CS)22+(DP)33+ = 11+1 22+ 2 33+
4. DATA ANALYSIS AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS

4.1) CORRELATION MATRIX
The correlation is one of the most common and most useful statistics. A correlation is a single
number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables. It is interesting to find
relationship among components of corporate governance, capital structure, dividend policy and
firm performance. Finding correlation coefficient provides a quantitative measure of the strength
of relationship between independent and dependent variables. The correlation checked through
applying SPSS shows that no bivariate correlation exceeds 0.90 limits given by (Tabachnick and
Fidell, 1996). It can be concluded that all independent variables are sufficiently independent of
each other and there is no indication of multicollinearity.
TABLE-2: CORRELATION MATRIX
BS BC CEO ACS AGM D/E DR ROA ROE
BS 1
BC .964** 1
**
CEO .160 .398** 1
** **
ACS .384 .333 -.092* 1
**
AGM -.006 .053 .240 .030 1
D/E -.026 -.027 -.019 .030 -.003 1
DR -.035 -.042 -.036 .026 -.058 -.039 1
** **
ROA .022 -.014 -.136 .125 -.053 -.062 .206** 1
ROE .027 .042 .064 .052 .007 -.175** .186** .405** 1
SOURCE: SPSS OUTPUT
**.Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2 tailed)
*.Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2 tailed)
The correlation matrix for the variables is reported in above table in order to examine the
correlation between the explanatory variables. The result shows that ROE and D/E are negatively
correlated at -.175 respectively, while ROE as a dependent variable have positive relationship
with all other explanatory variables. The correlation of ROA of all non-financial sectors with BS,
ACS and D/E shows positive correlation at .022, .125 and .206, ROA with all other independent
variables have negative correlation. DR of selected non-financial companies shows negative
correlation with explanatory variables, other than ACS which shows positivity at point .026. On
the other hand the Pearson correlations of all corporate governance indicators with each other are
positive except BS with AGM and ACS with CEO at -.006 and -.092, the variance-covariance
among variables is too high for BS and BC which is on the higher side .964. This indicates that
both these variables represent the same financially viable phenomenon.
26
4.2) KMO MEASURES OF SAMPLE ADEQUACY (MSA)
This study also includes factor analysis method in order to validate the analysis of financial
policy decisions. Bhaduri (2002) explains that Factor analysis is a statistical tool to determine a
minimum number of unobservable common factors (which are smaller in number than the
number of variables) by studying the covariance among a set of observed variables. The factor
analysis technique consists of two steps. Firstly, extracting the factors based on KMO MSA rule
(the initial eigenvalue greater or equal to one) and then regress the extracted factors against
dependent variables.
From the table of varimax rotated component matrix the factor variables are determined
following the rule of thumb where cut off point is 0.32 and the variables shows loadings more
than 0.32 are acceptable for a suitable explanation of factors. In the varimax matrix table, the
KMO Measures of sample adequacy (MSA) value 0.379 demonstrates that data samples are
adequate and also suitable for factor analysis. In addition to this, it is also evident that Bartlett's
Test of Sphericity is significant because its associated p-value (0.000) less than .05. This states
that variables do have some correlations to each other, which is very important to find an
underlying factor that represents a grouping of variables. Both of these indicators apparently
show satisfactory outcome and thus performing factor analysis to measure the validity of the
study seems to be wise.
TABLE-3.1: KMO AND BARTLETT'S TEST
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .379
Approx. Chi-Square 3.120E3

Bartlett's Test of Sphericity df 36
Sig. .000
SOURCE: SPSS OUTPUT
TABLE-3.2: VARIAMX ROTATED COMPONENT MATRIXA
Component
1 2 3
Board Size .951 -.027 .097
Board Composition .930 -.034 .292
CEO Duality .187 -.033 .811
Audit Committee Size .621 .089 -.304
Annual General Meetings -.055 -.010 .626
Debt to Equity Ratio .033 -.377 -.237
27
Dividend Ratio -.030 .520 -.111

Return on Assets .078 .738 -.226
Return on Equity .040 .793 .138
% of Variance in Rotation: 24.462 17.744 15.276
Eigenvalues: 2.285 1.632 1.256
SOURCE: SPSS OUTPUT
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.
Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.
a. Rotation converged in 5 iterations.
It is evident that factor 1 is highly loaded with board size, board composition and audit
committee. Board size and composition have no more diversity and balances the power of the
board and enlarges the controlling power of chairman or CEO and ensures no more transparency
of transactions in firms. Therefore this study considers board size as a factor. Factor 2 is highly
loaded with return on equity, return on assets and dividend ratio. Return on equity and return on
assets are positively related and having important value for the firm. Again return on equity and
return on assets determines the independent functioning capability of the firm. The higher board
paves the way for more independent thinking and decision for to improve the performance on the
basis of returns after considering financing decisions. Therefore this study considers both return
on equity and return on assets as the factor. Factor 3 is highly loaded with CEO duality and
annual general meetings. They both are considered important for higher directors shareholding
position and may attract fewer institutions to hold or purchase new shares of the company.
Therefore this study considers the CEO duality and annual general meetings as a factor. The first
factor accounts for 24.462 of the variance, the second 17.744 and the third 15.276, a total of
57.482 of total variance.
4.3) PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE ANALYSIS
Partial Least Squares (PLS) model was analyzed and interpreted in two stages. In the first
stage measurement model was evaluated and in the second stage structural model was evaluated.
The measurement model evaluates the relations between manifest variables (observed items) and
latent variables (factors). The measurement model was tested through assessment of validity and
reliability of the construct measures in the model. This ensured that only reliable and valid
constructs measures were used for assessing the nature of relationships in the overall model.
Structural model specifies relations between latent constructs. Estimating and analyzing the path
coefficients between the constructs test the structural model. Path coefficients are indicators of
the models predictive ability.
4.4) ANALYSIS OF THE STRUCTURAL MODEL
In Partial Least Squares (PLS) method, structural model and hypothesis were tested by
computing path coefficients (). Because PLS does not require a normally distributed data it is
evaluated with R-squared calculation for dependent latent variables and the average variance
extracted. The first item that PLS provides to determine how well the model fits the hypothesized
relationship is the squared multiple correlations (R2) for each dependent construct in the model.
The R2 measures a constructs percent variation that is explained by the model. To understanding
28
the dynamics of CG, CS and DP and their effects on FP, it seems advantageous to apply cross-
lagged structural equation modeling based on partial least square (SEM-PLS) to measure the
influence of independent variables towards other dependent variables. PLS is a non-parametric
technique which combines principal component analysis and regression and does not require
normality of data. The cross lagged analysis based on structural equation modeling gives an
estimation of the effects of CG on CS, DP and FP. In mathematical terms it would be:
= 11+1 22+ 2 33+
From the right side (1) specifies the beta and path coefficients of the latent endogenous
variable (1) used for Corporate Governance. The other are (2, 3) specifies beta and path
coefficients of second and third latent endogenous variables (12) for Capital Structure while (23)
for Dividend Policy. While at left side () of the equation specifies the outcome variable for Firm
Performance and () is the error term. In PLS based SEM, strength of hypothesis formulated in
this research study is generally measured through analyzing path coefficient (). In order to have
the statistical significance of path coefficients () a PLS algorithm and bootstrapping techniques
through Smart-PLS on the 600 resamples with replacement were applied the summary of
required results given in the tables below:
TABLE-4.1: MODEL-1 SUMMARY AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING

PATH
RELATIONSHIPS R2 T-VALUE SIG. HYPOTHESIS
COEFFICIENTS
H1 CG1 CS1 0.375 0.979 2.207 0.028 Confirmed
H1 CG1 CS1 0.342 0.958 2.207 0.028 Confirmed
H3 CG1 FP2 0.259 0.656 1.404 0.053 Confirmed
H3 CG3 FP4 0.182 0.568 2.270 0.017 Confirmed
H1 CG4 CS4 0.357 0.947 2.350 0.019 Confirmed
H3 CG4 FP5 0.132 0.454 2.218 0.018 Confirmed
H4 CS5 FP6 0.276 0.742 1.677 0.051 Confirmed
H4 CS5 FP6 0.234 0.741 1.677 0.051 Confirmed
SOURCE: SMARTPLS-3 OUTPUT
On the basis of varimax rotated component matrix the factor variables are determined
than 0.32 are acceptable for a suitable explanation of factors. For cross lagged analysis we
analyze corporate governance constructs in two factors. The first factor used BS, BC, ACS and
for the second factor used CEO and AGM. After analyses the results show that variables in both
factors are positive and significant indicators for corporate governance.
From factor one variables the above table shows list of path coefficients (), R 2 along with t-
values and significance from Model-1a for the period of 2006 to 2011. R2 measures the
proportion of the variance in dependent latent construct explained by independent latent
constructs. Which shows that CG effects on CS, CG effects on FP and CS effects on FP with
time lag of one year have higher r-squared values (97%, 65%, and 74%), on the basis of r-
squared values and positive path coefficients accepting H1, H3 and H4 of the study.
29
From factor two variables the above table shows list of path coefficients (), R 2 along with t-
values and significance from Model-1b for the period of 2006 to 2011. R2 measures the
constructs. Which shows that CG effects on CS, CG effects on FP and CS effects on FP with
time lag of one year have higher r-squared values (95%, 45% and 74%), on the basis of r-squared
values and positive path coefficients accepting H1, H3 and H4 of the study.
On the other hand CG effects on CS for the same year have high path coefficient with higher
r2 and significance level, while CG effects on the next year of performance positively and shows
positive results which indicates that if firm following good corporate governance practices it
might give better results for the coming financial year that is proved by performing PLS on the
bases of one cross-lagged analysis.
TABLE-4.2: MODEL-2 SUMMARY AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING

PATH
RELATIONSHIPS R2 T-VALUE SIG. HYPOTHESIS
COEFFICIENTS
H2 CG2 DP2 0.370 0.749 1.861 0.050 Confirmed
H3 CG1 FP2 0.268 0.511 1.902 0.010 Confirmed
H5 DP4 FP5 0.062 0.457 1.824 0.070 Confirmed
H3 CG3 FP4 0.322 0.866 1.403 0.175 Confirmed
H2 CG5 DP5 0.427 0.970 1.943 0.041 Confirmed
H5 DP5 FP6 0.350 0.622 1.950 0.039 Confirmed
H3 CG3 FP4 0.372 0.836 1.403 0.175 Confirmed
H2 CG2 DP2 0.375 0.807 1.861 0.050 Confirmed
H5 DP5 FP6 0.358 0.627 1.950 0.039 Confirmed
SOURCE: SMARTPLS-3 OUTPUT
On the basis of varimax rotated component matrix the factor variables are determined
than 0.32 are acceptable for a suitable explanation of factors. For cross lagged analysis we
analyze corporate governance constructs in two factors. The first factor used BS, BC, ACS and
the second factor used CEO and AGM. After analyses the results show that variables in both
factors are positive and significant indicators for corporate governance.
From factor one variables the above table shows list of path coefficients (), R 2 along with t-
values and significance from Model-2a for the period of 2006 to 2011. R2 measures the
constructs. Which shows that CG effects on DP, CG effects on FP and DP effects on FP with
values and positive path coefficients accepting H2, H3 and H5 of the study. On the other hand CG
effects on DP for the same year have high path coefficient with higher r 2 and significance level,
while CG effects on the next year of performance positively and shows positive results.
From factor two variables the above table shows list of path coefficients (), R 2 along with t-
values and significance from Model-2b for the period of 2006 to 2011. R2 measures the
constructs. Which shows that CG effects on DP, CG effects on FP and DP effects on FP with
30
values and positive path coefficients accepting H1, H3 and H4 of the study.
On the basis of results with cross-lagged analysis this study supports previous studies, which
were examined separately. The contribution of this study simultaneously analyzing the two
folded corporate governance literature and both are accepted on the basis of hypothesis. Firstly,
corporate governance is considered as the way of guiding and improving the firm performance
(Hart, 1995; Fama and Jensen, 1983) and it is also considered as the ways that provide suppliers
of finance with some protection in regards to their investment policies (Rahman, 2006; Shleifer
and Vishny, 1997).
PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS
In Pakistan the corporate governance topic is recently revealed subject (over a decade) for
discussion their true implementation and practical approaches. That is why getting high
consideration of academic researchers in the field of corporate sector. There are mixed views
found in literature about the effects of corporate governance on capital structure as well as on
firm performance. A number of academic researchers examined that while adopting the
corporate governance practices exert positive effect on capital structure and some are elaborating
that corporate governance mechanisms negatively related with firm performance and capital
structure. The given research study having importance in the sense that it empirically provides
evidence for directors, managers, shareholders, investors and other decision makers that how
effective Pakistani firms board composition can be on their financial decisions into the way of
reaching at high value and improving the financial performance of the firms to attain high
growth level.
This research study presents strong evidence to report corporate governance mechanisms in
annual reports of joint stock companies. This might be not only being useful for evaluating the
portfolios by existing and potential investors although benchmarking within industry would also
be possible. On the bases of available information related to the corporate governance measures
and corporate financing decisions, potential investors would be in a better position towards
estimating the risk associated with their investments that might be reducing the borrowing cost
and ultimately reduction in weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for the company.
The given research project also provides recommendations to the Pakistan Institute of
Corporate Governance for developing more awareness program in the board of directors of the
companies. Board of directors would be held responsible to look after exploiting, attracting and
the developing financial resources of their companies to gain higher financial performance.
Security Exchange Commission of Pakistan and other policy makers might be able in a better
position to encourage companies on the way towards adopting Corporate Governance
mechanisms as it has proved that these mechanisms affects positively and significantly financial
performance of the firms.
LIMITATIONS OF RESEARCH
This research work is not certainly beyond limitations in particular, the number of sample
firms and observations is low and therefore the results may not be more representative. An
extension of this work would consider sample firms from other developing and developed
31
countries and more observations to strengthening the findings. These issues were difficult to
address due to time constraint and unavailability of public data. This study also acknowledges
that all viewpoints of both theoretical and empirical literature are not captured in this relatively
small dataset. However, careful steps were taken in collecting and analyzing every single data to
ensure an unbiased research study.
5. CONCLUSION
Corporate governance has a growing importance to balance between the financial and social
goal all over the world, Pakistan has also developed corporate governance code for listed
companies to ensure better transparency and accountability of transactions. However, the feeble
regulatory system along with personal and political affiliation of corporate entrepreneurs and
directors negate the essence of quality corporate governance in many instances. Corporate
Governance is one of the most important research areas in Pakistan after publication of SECP
corporate governance rules 2002, for publicly listed firms.
Corporate collapses such as Enron, WorldCom, and One-Tel etc have encouraged the
requirement for stronger corporate governance practices not only in the developed countries but
also in the developing countries. Pakistani firms are family controlled since the earlier period.
Ownership is very concentrated. The families control the firms through pyramidal and
channeling ownership structures. The relationship of corporate governance variables has been
generally researched but still there are no appropriate results for end conclusions. In this research
a large number of corporate governance mechanisms are taken for evaluating the relationship
with capital structure and firm performance.
This study is prepared to investigate the effects of corporate governance practices on capital
structure decisions, dividend payout policy and firm performance of hundred peer firms listed as
non- financial companies in Pakistan for the period of 2006 to 2011. The outcome suggests that
corporate governance mechanisms have positive significant relationship with financial decisions
and firm performance indicators. Our analysis is formed in different statistical techniques
including structural equation modeling (SEM) to check structural link among all variables.
Analyses were performed through one year time lag for examining the hypothesis. Our study
relates to the corporate governance internal practices, financing decision, dividend payout and
financial ratios.
The present study has summarized the internal corporate governance mechanisms and their
relationship with capital structure, dividend policy and firm performance. It add value to the
literature and explains unique ways for further studies, in which both internal as well as external
corporate governance mechanisms and practices would include along with their effects on
different capital structure, dividend policy and firm performance proxies. Predominantly this
study contains peer firms governance practices and their behavior while making financial
decisions to enhance their performance which may increases the value of firm. Peer firms play an
essential role in determining a number of corporate policies, and existing evidence suggests that
the behavior of peer firms may matter for financing structure. The contribution of this research is
important for both academic researchers and business managers.
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36
ANNEXURE-A
TABLE-1
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS/SYMBOLS INCLUDED IN THE STUDY

ABBREVIATIONS/SYMBOLS DEFINITIONS
1. ACS Audit Committee Size
2. AGM Annual General Meetings
3. BC Board Composition
4. BS Board Size
5. CEO Duality Chief Executive Officer Duality
6. CG Corporate Governance
7. CS Capital Structure
8. D/E Debt-to-Equity Ratio
9. DP Dividend Policy
10. DR Dividend Payout Ratio
11. FP Firm Performance
12. KSE Karachi Stock Exchange
13. PLS Partial Least Square
14. ROA Return on Assets
15. ROE Return on Equity
16. SBP State Bank of Pakistan
17. SECP Securities Exchange Commission of Pakistan
18. SEM Structural Equation Modeling
19. SPSS Statistical Package for Social Sciences
20. WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital
21. WTO World Trade Organization
37
Does Financial Development Create a Significant Cause of Social Development?
Rizwan Ali* Inayat U. Mangla** Yanping Liu***
ABSTRACT
This paper examines the nature and direction of the relationship among financial
development, economic growth, and social development in Pakistan. The purpose of this study is
to investigate whether there is a linkage among these variables existed or not? In order to
achieve this objective, we use time-series data over a period of twenty five years, i.e. 1988-2012
of the selected variables which includes Infant Mortality, Life Expectancy and Public Spending
on Education as the proxies for social development and Market Capitalization, Money Growth,
and Domestic Credit are the constructs of financial development. For empirical analysis,
multiple regression technique is applied to test the proposed hypotheses. On the other hand,
economic growth is represented by GDP, inflation rate and GNI. The study supports the
prevalent view that financial development and economic growth knowingly influence the social
development. Given is the evidence, we can reasonably argue that the financial development
contribute in economic growth of a country which further leads to social development and well-
being.
KEYWORDS: Financial Development, Economic Growth, Social Development Indices.
JEL Classification: E44, F43, A13
Rizwan Ali*, PhD Student, Xidian University, Xian, China, +86-13028596197; [email protected]
Inayat U. Mangla**, Professor of Finance, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, Michigan, (269) 929-8525; [email protected]
Yanping Liu***, Professor of Finance, Chief Financial Officer, Xidian University, Xian, China, +86-29-81891807; [email protected]
Does Financial Development Create a Significant Cause of Social Development?
38
I. Introduction
The importance of the relationship between financial development and economic growth is
well documented in the literature. Economic theory establishes that well-functioning financial
intermediaries and markets reduce information asymmetries, facilitate risk sharing and mobilize
savings, which leads to a more efficient resource allocation and, thus, may foster long-term
economic growth. Long-term sustainable economic growth depends on the ability to raise the
rates of accumulation of physical and human capital, and to use the resulting productive assets
more efficiently, and to ensure the access these assets to the whole population. Financial
intermediation supports this investment process by mobilizing household and foreign savings for
investment by firms; ensuring that these funds are allocated to their most productive uses;
spreading risk and providing liquidity so that firms can operate the new capacity efficiently.
Financial development thus involves the establishment and expansion of institutions,

instruments and markets that support this investment and growth process. There is a widespread
dissatisfaction with per capita income as the sole indicator to measure the well-being of a nation.
The emphasis has now shifted to alternative measures of development. Social indicators, quality
of life, basic needs and standard of living are the new approaches, which are being discussed and
propagated by academic and international institutions. Interest in social development as a
development policy objective appears to have been promoted by the observed unevenness in the
economic performance of developing countries. Despite positive and high GDP growth rates,
economic development failed to reach all segments of society. Pressed by high population
growth rates and inflation, the poorest 40 percent of people in majority of the developing
countries hardly reaped the benefits of development.
Financial development and economic growth are thus clearly related, and this relationship has
occupied the attention of economists from Adam Smith to Schumpeter; although the channels
and even the direction of causality have remained unresolved in both theory and empirically.
Moreover, the wide range of organizational forms involved precluded any clear conclusion as to
what kind of financial institutions might maximize economic growth. A key question on the
theme of economic growth is whether the financial development has an impact on economic
growth or not. The financial development concept is defined in many ways, but we will mention
the Financial Development Reports (2011) definition: financial development is represented by
the factors, policies and institutions that lead to effective financial intermediation and markets, as
well as deep and broad access to capital and financial services.
Economic development is subject to availability of the physical and human capital. Financial
resources are needed to ascertain the availability of these capitals. In fact, an economic system
equipped with an effective and efficient financial system can mold this investment function in an
optimal manner. For example, financial system can contribute towards this end by encouraging
the public to save and reallocate their savings to productive investment projects, while
competently addressing the issues of risk and return. Hence, financial system development is the
process involving actions such as founding and expounding functions of financial institutions,
developing new (innovative) financial products and developing markets for these products.
However, the recent financial crisis in the developed economies is an example of the downside
of the financial development and is an indication of the complexities involved in relationship
39
between economic and financial development. Moreover, despite the fact that the two are related,
the direction of causality in this relationship is yet another undecided phenomenon.
Thus, the main goal of this paper is to investigate the relationship between financial
development, economic growth and social development. This paper brings novelty into the
literature of financial development, economic growth and social development. Firstly, the
database and the variables employed are unique. Secondly, to the best of the authors knowledge,
no research have had classified the countries into two clusters depending on their level of
financial development. This study is the first of its kind. Finally, the econometric approaches
employed on the data sets of developing country involves novelty, their results can lead to
efficient financial policies for Pakistan which would promote sustainable long term economic
growth that might directly effects social development at individual stage for decreasing the level
of inequality.
The rest of the paper is structured as follows. The next section provides the review of the
extant literature. This is followed by describing data and methodology section. The next to last
section presents the results. The concluding comments section ends the paper.
II. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
The main focus of this study is to examine the linkages among financial development,
economic growth, and social development. More specifically the study tries to examine the
relationship among all proxies which are used to represent three main indicators in a developing
economy, like Pakistan.
III. LITERATURE REVIEW
As previously stated, the underlying relationship between financial development and

economic growth remains unclear in theory and thus only empirical studies can help us
understand this issue. A bulk of empirical literature provides evidence that financial development
matters for growth. The role of financial sector development on economic growth was first
discovered by (Bagehot, 1873) who considered that the financial system played a crucial role in
stimulating industrialization in England by facilitating the mobilization of capital. After that
(Schumpeter, 1912) made an observation based on the relationship between financial sector and
the resulting allocation of resources to companies, which he perceived as having implications for
productivity growth and technological change.
Goldsmith (1969), McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) are among early economists who
explored the relationship between financial development and economic growth some four
decades ago. They found that financial markets and economic growth rate are positively related.
The major weaknesses in their study include: i) lack of theoretical explanation for this relation
(the then existing theoretical discussion was about financial development and level of
productivity and not the rate of growth), and ii) failure to establish the direction of causality
40
between financial development and growth. Current developments in this area have focused
more to address these shortcomings.
There are some studies in economic development, which express that economic growth and
social development are highly interdependent. For example, Strinivasan (1977) is of the opinion
that policies both for economic growth and towards basic needs development are interwoven.
He, however, suggests that too much emphasis on basic needs would, at least in the short run,
hurt economic growth. This in turn would damage future improvements in the basic needs
programs. The literature, however, has not yet provided a consistent and clear answer of the
causal priority. More recently, Kakwani (1993) and Mazumdar (1996) presented contradictory
views on this issue especially with reference to underdeveloped nations. Mazumdar suggested
that "for the middle income and low income group, the social development index precedes per
capita GDP [trickle-up effect]". On the contrary, Kakwani found that "the level of economic
welfare and change in it have a positive and significant influence on the improvement in the
standard of living [trickle-down effect] ".
Among the first to explore causality in a time series framework were Demetriades and
Hussein (1996) and Luintel and Khan (1999) who mainly find a bi-directional relationship
between finance and growth in a sample of developing countries. They argue that cross-sectional
studies of countries with very different experiences in terms of financial development may well
suggest simpler than actual dynamics between finance and growth. Levine (2000) further shows
that the impact of financial development on growth acts mainly through total factor productivity
(TFP) rather than through capital accumulation or savings rates. He concludes, therefore, that
maybe Schumpeter was right. A somewhat different conclusion, albeit supportive for the
general direction of the argument is that of Aghion et al (2005) who claim that financial
development explains whether there is convergence or not but it does not exert a direct effect on
steady-state growth.
Recent evidence which benefits from the availability of longer time series, in particular with
regards to stock market data, has cast some doubts on the stylized positive relationship between
financial development and growth. Loayza and Ranciere (2006) find that the long-run positive
relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a mostly negative
short-run relationship. Shen and Lee (2006) also find a negative relationship between bank
development and growth, when controlling for the development of stock markets. Panizza et al.
(2012) show that the relationship between financial development and economic growth turns
negative for high levels of credit to GDP.
MEASURING FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
Analyzing previous studies on this subject, we can conclude that there were employed
different econometric methodologies and variables. Those variables were created to represent
unbiased estimators for financial development, economic growth or to define other economic
phenomena which are strongly related to social development. Boyd, J.H., Prescott, E.C., (1986)
considers that the empirical studies which investigate the link between the financial and the real
sector can be divided into two groups. The first category presents the impact of banking system
development on growth using indicators such as: depth, bank ratio and financial activity. The
41
second category concentrates on the stock exchange market and employs the following variables:
market capitalization, turnover ratio and stocks traded.
There is no preferred measure for the financial development. The economists use various
ways for defining the financial development in order to reach a pertinent conclusion. Different
indicators can be used for different countries according to their preference and data availability
for a banking orientated or a stock exchange orientated financial system. It is important to define
and to include in this model some other economic variables that may influence the country
economic growth as mediating variables. These variables should account for various domains
such as: macroeconomic stability, market capitalization, money growth and domestic credit.
When measuring economic growth, Valickova P., Havranek T., Horvath R., (2013) argued
that the most frequently employed variables were: the real growth rate of GDP per capita, the
growth rate of GDP per capita, the growth rate of GDP and the real growth rate of GDP.
Measuring financial development is extremely difficult and important for a country in order to
determine its impact on economic growth. The studies mentioned above, however, were based on
the data from a cross-section of countries. The present study is an attempt to investigate the issue
in the context of Pakistan using time series data from 1988 to 2012. To summarize various social
indicators, a Social Development Index (SDI) has been constructed. The SDI components are
discussed in the next section.
IV. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
In order to achieve objectives of the study, we are using time-series data of Pakistan for the
period of 1988-2012.The data is obtained from three major sources i.e. Karachi Stock Exchange
(KSE), State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and World Bank Development Indicators (WDI). We
collected data specifically for a developing economy like Pakistan which has been chosen based
upon the classification by the World Bank as low- or middle-income countries.
For this study, data has been analyzed through STATA, for the hypotheses testing multiple
regression analysis is used. Before testing the hypothesized model, Descriptive Statistics,
Correlation Matrix and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) also applied. In the next session, each
analysis along with its results is reported.
Variables Involved in the Study
As described earlier most studies establish following types of variables are involved:
Independent Variables
Mediating Variables
Dependent Variables
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
42
In fact the independent variables are what researcher manipulates a treatment or cause. In the
model being studied, Financial Development is used as an independent variable. There are three
proxies used for it such as: Market Capitalization, Money Supply, and Domestic Credit.
MEDIATING VARIABLES
Economic Growth is used as mediating variable. Economic Growth mediates between

Financial Development and Social Development. However, its direction is worth investigating.
GDP, Inflation Rate and GNI are used as proxies for Economic Growth.
DEPENDENT VARIABLES
Infant Mortality, Life Expectancy and Public Spending on Education are used as the proxies
of Social Development; which may be affected by other variables, independent and mediating
variables.
Research Hypothesis
On the basis of the above research objective and literature review, this study considers the
following testable hypotheses. Justification of these testable hypotheses is derived from previous
studies as discussed in the literature review section.
HYPOTHESIS-1: There is a significant relationship between social development and financial

development of a country.
HYPOTHESIS-2: There is a significant relationship between social development and economic

growth of a country.
Research Models
Therefore, a statistically significant positive association is expected to exist among the

financial development, economic growth and social development in the aforementioned
hypotheses. This study tests the above hypotheses on the basis of the given measurement, and
regression models:
Suggested Models For Social Development Factor Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
Log IMR = + 1LogMC + 2LogDC
Log IMR = + 1LogMS + 2LogDC
Log IMR = + 1LogMC + 2LogMS
Log IMR = + 1LogGNI + 2LogINF
Log IMR = + 1LogGDP + 2LogINF
Log IMR = + 1LogGDP + 2LogGNI
Suggested Models for Social Development factor life expectancy (LIE)

Log LIE = + 1LogMS + 2LogDC
Log LIE = + 1LogMC + 2LogDC
43
Log LIE = + 1LogMC + 2LogMS

Log LIE = + 1LogGDP + 2LogGNI
Log LIE = + 1LogGDP + 2LogINF
Log LIE = + 1LogGNI + 2LogINF
Suggested Models for Social Development factor public spending (PS)

Log PS = + 1LogMS + 2LogDC
Log PS = + 1LogMC + 2LogDC
Log PS = + 1LogMC + 2LogMS
Log PS = + 1LogGDP + 2LogGNI
Log PS = + 1LogGDP + 2LogINF
Log PS = + 1LogGNI + 2LogINF
V. EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
In this section, we analyze the quantitative data to explore and uncover the relationship
among variables. In addition to testing the hypothetical relationship among the variables, in this
section the validity of all the indicators is tested precisely in context of Pakistan. The research
objectives have already been discussed along with further discussion.
Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive statistics are used to describe the basic features of the data in our study. They
provide simple summaries about the sample and the measures. Together with simple graphics
analysis, they form the basis of virtually every quantitative analysis of data. Descriptive Statistics
are used to present quantitative descriptions in a wieldy form. In this research study we may have
lots of measures. Descriptive statistics help us to simplify large amounts of data in a practical
way.
At first basic descriptive statistics is applied for the better numerical understanding of the
data, although it does not tell us about the whole story but describes minimum, maximum, mean,
standard deviation, Skewness and kurtosis of all independent and dependent variables.
TABLE I: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Skewness Kurtosis
Std.
Minimum Maximum Mean
Deviation Statistic Std. Statistic Std.
Error Error
IMR 69.00 109.00 88.4800 12.44361 .121 .464 -1.228 .902
LIE 61.00 66.00 63.7600 1.80924 -.207 .464 -1.303 .902
PSE 1.80 3.10 2.4328 .35779 -.273 .464 -.636 .902
MC 6.10 46.10 18.3320 10.39726 1.242 .464 1.490 .902
MG 4.30 29.30 14.8360 5.62656 .156 .464 .586 .902
DC 37.20 55.90 47.6640 5.51059 -.478 .464 -.823 .902
GDP 1.00 7.70 4.2320 1.99389 .330 .464 -.672 .902
INF 2.90 20.30 9.1560 4.00605 .530 .464 1.152 .902
GNI -2.10 5.70 1.8120 1.94686 .241 .464 -.125 .902
44
Skewness Kurtosis
Std.
Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Std.
Deviation Statistic Statistic
Error Error
IMR 69.00 109.00 88.4800 12.44361 .121 .464 -1.228 .902
LIE 61.00 66.00 63.7600 1.80924 -.207 .464 -1.303 .902
PSE 1.80 3.10 2.4328 .35779 -.273 .464 -.636 .902
MC 6.10 46.10 18.3320 10.39726 1.242 .464 1.490 .902
MG 4.30 29.30 14.8360 5.62656 .156 .464 .586 .902
DC 37.20 55.90 47.6640 5.51059 -.478 .464 -.823 .902
GDP 1.00 7.70 4.2320 1.99389 .330 .464 -.672 .902
INF 2.90 20.30 9.1560 4.00605 .530 .464 1.152 .902
GNI -2.10 5.70 1.8120 1.94686 .241 .464 -.125 .902
Valid N (list
wise) 25
In Table-I is a summary of descriptive statistics of all the variables included in this study. The
results show that, on average and over the period, market capitalization of Pakistan was 18.332
billion with a standard deviation of 10.397. The minimum portion is 6.10 while maximum
portion is 46.10 which show positive increase in market capitalization ratio. GNI statistic
indicates that, on average, ratio is 1.812 with the standard deviation of 1.946, while minimum
and maximum ratios shows positive increase in GNI ratio that is from -2.10 to 5.70. Social
development indicator shows positive average ratio of infant mortality which is 88.480 with the
standard deviation of 12.443. Similarly, minimum and maximum portion shows positivity that
from point 69.00 to 109.00.
Correlation Matrix
The correlation is one of the most useful ways to analyze statistics. A correlation is a single
number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables. Finding correlation
coefficient provides a quantitative measure of the strength of relationship between independent
and dependent variables.
TABLE II: CORRELATION MATRIX
IMR LIE PS GDP MS MC INF GNI DC
IMR 1
LIE -0.9712 1
PS 0.2420 -0.2333 1
GDP -0.9018 0.8717 -0.0887 1
MS -0.0241 0.0135 -0.0224 -0.0228 1
MC -0.3971 0.4754 0.05465 0.3907 0.4989 1
INF -0.1365 0.1118 0.5097 0.4103 0.0127 0.0981 1
GNI -0.5238 0.5646 0.1369 0.6326 0.2772 0.7614 0.2436 1
DC 0.2606 -0.1568 0.2961 -0.2924 -0.0751 0.3861 0.0494 0.0148 1
45
The correlation matrix for the variables is reported in Table-II in order to examine the
correlation between the explanatory variables. The result shows that LIE and DC are negatively
correlated at -0.1568, while PS as a dependent variable has positive relationship at .2961 with
DC as explanatory variable. The correlation of IMR with GDP, MS, MC, INF and GNI shows
negative correlation at -0.9018, -0.0241,-0.3971,-0.1365 and -0.5238, while IMR shows positive
correlation with PS and DC at 0.2420 and 0.2606. On the other hand, the Pearson correlations of
all indicators with each other as a constructs for particular indicator shows mix statistics. The
variance-covariance among variables is high for PS and INF which is 0.5097, LIE and GNI
which is 0.5646. MS and LIE has low correlation at .013, which shows money supply has weak
correlation with life expectancy rate in Pakistan.
Variance Inflationary Factor
The variance inflationary factor (VIF) is a common approach for detecting multicollinearity.
Because high collinearity among variables can produce unstable estimates and makes it difficult
to judge individual variables role towards formation of their relevant model. To test the
assumption of multiple regression analysis i.e., multicolinearity, variance inflation factor (VIF) is
measured by STATA. Results show that VIF remains below 10 for all variables and models
which indicates that there is no multicollinearity existed between explanatory variables of the
suggested models. According to Kleinbaum, Kupper and Muller (1988) argues that if VIF value
lesser than 10 does not pose problem of multicollinearity.
TABLE III: REGRESSION RESULTS OF STUDIED MODEL

Variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6
Constant 3.75 3.58 4.59 5.21 6.07 6.04
(7.92) (6.26) (37.36) (24.43) (68.78) (48.75)
MC -0.10 -0.117
(-3.03) (-2.61)
DC 0.38 0.28
(2.60) (1.65)
MS -0.004 0.07
(-0.09) (1.29)
GNI -.128 -.032
(-3.69) (1.62)
INF -.044 -.059
(1.16) (5.15)
GDP -.27 -.28
(-18.73) (-10.10)
F 6.60 1.41 3.47 6.82 175.75 83.71
P-Value 0.0057 0.2644 0.0489 0.0050 0.0000 0.0000
R-Square 0.3749 0.1139 0.2399 0.3827 0.9411 0.8839
No. of Ob. 25 25 25 25 25 25
In the above posed table we test all suggested models for IMR with financial and economic
variables by using the multiple regression modeling. The results of model 1 show that MC has
negative and significant impact on IMR, however, DC has a positive and significant influence on
IMR. The overall model 1 is also significant with F-stat equals to 6.60. The R square of the
46
model 1 is 37.49%. The result of VIF is also showing that there is no multicollinearity between
MC and DC in model 1.
The results of model 2 show that MS has negative and significant impact on IMR, however,
DC has a positive and significant influence on IMR. Although the overall model 2 is not
significant with F-stat equals to 1.41. The R square of the model 2 is 11.39%. The result of VIF
is also showing that there is no multicollinearity between MS and DC in model 2. The results of
model 3 show that MC has negative and significant impact on IMR, however, MS has a positive
and significant influence on IMR. The overall model 3 is also significant at 5% level of
significance with F-stat equals to 3.47, while R square of the model 3 is 23.99%. The result of
VIF is also showing that there is no multicollinearity between MC and MS in model 3.
The results of model 4 show that both GNI and INF have negative and significant impact on
IMR. The overall model 4 is also significant with F-stat equals to 6.82. The R square of the
GNI and INF in model 4. The results of model 5 and 6 show that GDP, INF and GDP, GNI have
negative and significant impact on IMR. The overall model 5 and 6 are highly significant with F-
stat equals to 175.75 and 83.71 respectively. The R square of the models 5 and 6 are 94.11% and
88.39% individually. The results of VIF are also showing that there is no multicollinearity
between GDP-INF and GDP-GNI in model 5 and 6.
TABLE IV: REGRESSION RESULTS OF STUDIED MODEL

Constant 66.13 67.76 63.19 60.17 60.92 62.20
(19.21) (25.75) (66.90) (127.28) (132.25) (70.78)
MC .112 0.111
(3.41) (3.02)
DC -0.097 -0.249
(-0.74) (-2.17)
MS 0.0006 -0.097
(0.01) (-1.44)
GNI 0.0001 0.002
(0.16) (3.15)
INF -0.135 -0.012
(-3.09) (-0.15)
GDP 0.006 0.006
(6.37) (10.39)
F 0.28 6.25 4.55 34.89 54.76 5.16
P-Value 0.7603 0.0071 0.0222 0.0000 0.0000 0.0145
R-Square 0.024 0.3622 0.2927 0.7603 0.8327 0.3195
No. of Ob. 25 25 25 25 25 25
In the above posed table we test all suggested models for LIE with financial and economic
variables by using the multiple regression modeling. The results of model 1 show that MS has
positive and significant impact on LIE, however, DC has a negative and significant influence on
LIE. Though the overall model 1 is not significant with F-stat equals to 0.28. The R square of the
model 1 is 2.4% which is not strengthen. The result of VIF is also showing that there is no
multicollinearity between MC and DC in model 1.
47
The results of model 2 show that MC has positive and significant impact on LIE, however,
DC has a negative and significant influence on LIE. The overall model 2 is also significant with
F-stat equals to 6.25. The R square of the model 2 is 36.22%. The result of VIF is also showing
that there is no multicollinearity between MC and DC in model 2. The results of model 3 show
that MC has positive and significant impact on LIE, however, MS has a negative and significant
influence on LIE. The overall model 3 is also significant at 5% level of significance with F-stat
equals to 4.25, while R square of the model 3 is 29.27%. The result of VIF is also showing that
there is no multicollinearity between MC and MS in model 3.
The results of model 4 show that both variables GDP and GNI have positive and significant
impact on LIE. The overall model 4 is highly significant with F-stat equals to 34.89, while R
square of the model 4 is 76.03%. The result of VIF is also showing that there is no
multicollinearity between GDP and GNI in model 4. The results of model 5 show that GDP has
positive and significant impact on LIE, however, INF has a negative and significant influence on
LIE. The overall model 5 is also significant with F-stat equals to 54.76. The R square of the
GDP and INF in model 5.
The results of model 6 show that GNI has positive and significant impact on LIE, though, INF
has a negative and significant influence on LIE. The overall model 6 is also significant at level of
5% with F-stat equals to 516. The R square of the model 5 is 31.95%. The result of VIF is also
showing that there is no multicollinearity between GNI and INF in model 6.
TABLE IV: REGRESSION RESULTS OF STUDIED MODEL

Constant 1.57 1.53 2.42 2.46 2.17 2.008
(2.49) (2.58) (11.42) (13.97) (12.79) (11.55)
MC -0.002 0.003
(-0.32) (0.36)
DC 0.035 0.038
(1.45) (1.47)
MS -0.000 -0.004
(-0.00) (-0.27)
GNI 0.0002 8.93e
(1.21) (0.07)
INF 0.057 0.044
(3.53) (2.68)
GDP -0.003 -0.0004
(-1.10) (-1.93)
F 1.06 1.11 0.07 0.83 6.36 3.86
P-Value 0.3644 0.3464 0.9331 0.4499 0.0066 0.0364
R-Square 0.0877 0.0910 0.0063 0.0700 0.3665 0.2600
No. of Ob. 25 25 25 25 25 25
In the above posed table we test all suggested models for PS with financial and economic
variables by using the multiple regression modeling. The results of model 1 and 3 show that MS
has negative and significant impact on PS, however, DC and MC have positive and significant
influence on PS. Overall both models are not significant with F-stat equals to 1.06 and 0.07
48
respectively. The R square of the models is 8.77% and 0.63% individually. The results of VIF
are showing that there is no multicollinearity between MS-DC and MC-MS in model 1 and 3.
The results of model 2 show that MC has negative and significant impact on PS, whereas, DC
has a positive and significant influence on PS. The overall model 2 is also not significant with F-
stat equals to 1.11. The R square of the model 2 is 9.10%. The result of VIF is also showing that
there is no multicollinearity between MC and DC in model 2. The results of model 4 and 5 show
that GDP has negative and significant impact on PS, however, GNI and INF have positive and
significant influence on PS. The overall model 4 is not significant with F-stat equals to 0.07; R
square of the model 4 is 7.00% while model 5 is significant with F-stat equal to 6.36; R square of
the model 5 is 36.65. The results of VIF are also showing that there is no multicollinearity
between GDP-GNI and GDP-INF in model 4 and 5.
The results of model 6 show that both variables GDP and GNI have positive and significant
impact on PS. The overall model 6 is also significant at 5% level of significance with F-stat
equals to 3.86. The R square of the model 6 is 26.00%. The result of VIF is also showing that
there is no multicollinearity between GNI and INF in model 6.
VI. CONCLUSION
To summarize, this study has examined the interaction between financial development,
economic growth, and social development. It has also investigated the direction, and strength of
the impact of these variables, if there exists any. After applying the aforementioned statistical
techniques, the study maintains that a linkage exists among financial development, economic
growth, and social development. Further, the study asserts that financial development and
economic growth influence the social development. It can also be followed from the sufficient
empirical evidence that has been provided in the study that there is a significant influence of
financial development and economic growth of a developing country like, Pakistan, on its social
development. However, the results suggest that the different proxies of financial development
have different impact on different constructs of social development. For example, the market
capitalization and domestic credit which are the indicators of financial development both have
significant impact on infant mortality rate one of the indicator of social development, but in
opposite direction. Market capitalization has negative and significant impact on infant mortality
rate; however, the domestic credit has positive and significant impact.
On the other side, money supply which is another indicator of financial development has no
impact on infant mortality rate. These results are consistent with other indicators of social
development, like in case of life expectancy and public spending. Similarly, the economic
growth indicators like, GDP, inflation and GNI have negative and significant impact on social
development. The results also suggest that a high economic growth decreases the infant mortality
rate in a developing country like Pakistan.. Although, the study provides robust insights in this
dimension, however the mechanism is still mysterious. Future research may be conducted to
highlight such a mechanism. This will surely entail policy and pragmatic implications.
VII. Selective References

1). Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005). The Effect of Financial Development
on Convergence: Theory and Evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 173-222.
2). Arcand, J. L., Berkes, E., &Panizza, U. (2012). Too much finance?. International Monetary
Fund.
49
3). Bagehot W (1873). Lombard Street. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin, [1873] 1962 Edition.
4). Boyd, J.H., Prescott, E.C., (1986). Financial intermediary coalitions, Journal of Economic
Theory, XXXVIII,
5). Demetriades, P. O., & Hussein, K. A. (1996). Does financial development cause economic
growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries. Journal of development Economics, 51(2),
387-411.
6). Goldsmith RW (1969). Financial structure development. New Haven, CT: Yale U. Press.
7). Kakwani, N., 1993, "Performance in living standards: An international comparison," Journal
of Development Economics, Vol. 41, No. 2
8). Levine, R., Loayza, N., & Beck, T. (2000). Financial intermediation and growth: Causality
and causes. Journal of monetary Economics, 46(1), 31-77.
9). Loayza, N. V., &Ranciere, R. (2006). Financial development, financial fragility, and growth.
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1051-1076.
10). Luintel, K. B., & Khan, M. (1999). A quantitative reassessment of the financegrowth nexus:
evidence from a multivariate VAR. Journal of Development Economics, 60(2), 381-405.
11). Mazumdar, K., 1969, "An analysis of causal flow between social development and economic
growth," The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Vol 55(3).
12). Mckinnon R (1973). Money capital in economic development.. Washington, DC: Brookings
institution.
13). Schumpeter JA (1912). Theorie der Wirt- schaftlichenEntwicklung [The theory of economic
development].Leipzig: Dunker & Hum- blot, 1912; translated by Redvers Opie. Cambridge,
MA: Harvard U. Press, 1934.
14). Shaw ES (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development. New York: Oxford
University Press.
15). Shen, C. H., & Lee, C. C. (2006). Same financial development yet different economic
growth: why?.Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1907-1944.
16). Strinivasan, T. N., 1997, "Development, poverty and basic human needs: Some issues," Food
Research Institute Studies, Vol. 16, No. 2
17). Valickova P., Havranek T., Horvath R., (2013). Financial Development and Economic
Growth: A Meta- Analysis, William Davidson Institute, Michigan.
18). Kleinbaum, D. G., Kupper, L. L., & Muller, K. E. E.(1988) Applied Regression Analysis and
Other Multivariable Methods. PWS-Kent Publishing, Boston, MA.
ANNEXURE
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS/SYMBOLS INCLUDED IN THE STUDY

ABBREVIATIONS/SYMBOLS DEFINITIONS
22. IMR Infant Mortality
23. LIE Life Expectancy
24. PS Public Spending on Education
25. MC Market Capitalization
26. MS Money Growth
27. DC Domestic Credit
28. GDP Gross Domestic Product
29. INF Inflation
30. GNI Gross National Income
50
Fund-generating Coefficients and Underwriting Profits
in Property and Casualty Insurance
Han B. Kang*
The main advantage of the property and liability insurance is to collect premiums in
advance. Once the insurance application is accepted, the insured normally pay premiums at the
beginning of policy period. In some cases, we can pay premiums on an installment basis, but
there is a fee associated with the partial payment method. Losses and claims occur through the
year, however, allowing insurers to invest the pre-paid premiums in bonds, stocks, mortgages,
real estate, etc. Insurers are financial intermediaries who collect premiums in the insurance
market and invest it in the capital market. The time lag between the premiums collection and loss
payments gives insurers an opportunity for generating investment income. Therefore, when
insurers expect high investment income, they are willing to sell policies at a lower price and
make up possible underwriting losses with investment income. It is known as cash-flow
underwriting in the industry. There were many previous studies on the issue of underwriting
cycle based on the cash-flow underwriting practice (Kang 2012; Wen & Born 2005; Gron 1994).
Historically, for most years, investment earnings have been increasingly a major source
of income for property and casualty insurers because of the competitive nature of the
underwriting business. In 2012, for example, the aggregate net investment income was 49.2
billion dollars whereas the underwriting losses amounted almost 14 billion dollars for the US
property and casualty insurance industry. It means that insurers are heavily depending upon
investment side of business and willing to accept underwriting losses. There were many classical
studies on the the fair or competitive rate of return on underwriting (Biger & Kahane 1978;
Fairley 1979; Hill 1979). They derived equilibrium underwriting returns from the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM). Their theories suggest that a fair or equilibrium return on underwriting
is negative and the magnitude of underwriting losses depend upon fund-generating coefficient
(FGC), assuming the underwriting beta is zero.
Table 1 shows underwriting results by line from year 1996 to 2013. It shows heavy
underwriting losses except the auto physical damage line. The average combined ratio for all
property and casualty insurance firms during the period is 1.0322, meaning that the industry lost
3.22 percent in underwriting business for all lines. Note that the combined ratio greater than one
indicates underwriting losses. The auto liability line lost 4.18 percent while the auto physical
damage line made about 3 percent underwriting gain during the same period. Also, shown in
Table 1, the long-tail medical liability line lost more than 8 percent in underwriting. It implies
that insurers lost more in the liability lines, thus they have to depend upon more investment
earnings in liability insurance business to offset the underwriting losses.
51
The fund-generating coefficient (FGC) is a measure of the investable fund generated by

per dollar of premiums written. It is impossible to determine accurate figures for the fund-
generating coefficient. An approximate measurement of the coefficient can be obtained by
dividing the sum of unearned premium reserves and loss reserves by earned or written premiums
or premiums written. The average FGC from 1996 to 2013 for all lines is 1.68219 as shown in
Table 2. However, the coefficient is not same among insurance lines. The long-tail liability line
is supposed to have a higher coefficient since the claim settlement period is much longer for
liability than property lines. It implies that insurers can accept higher underwriting losses for
liability lines because liability polices offer longer investment opportunities.
Table 3 shows fund-generating coefficients for auto liability while Table 4 shows the
coefficients for auto physical damage. The average FGC from 1996 to 2013 is 1.47730 for auto
liability line, whereas the corresponding figure is 0.41545 for auto physical damage. The auto
liability line shows much higher FGC average, meaning longer settlement period and resulting
longer investment opportunities. Table 4 and 5 show the FGC for homeowners multiple peril and
medical malpractice lines. The average FGC for homeowners is 0.88749 during the period from
1996 to 2013, whereas the corresponding figure is 4.74275 for medical malpractice line. The
medical malpractice line shows much longer FGC and longer investment opportunities. It has
highest FGC number among the four lines examined in this study. You can draw a same
conclusion in Figure 1 & 2. Figure 1 shows that the fund-generating coefficients during 1996 to
2013 are much higher for auto liability line than auto physical damage. We can find a similar
data in Figure 2: the medical malpractice line shows much higher fund-generating coefficients
than homeowners line during the same period.
This study analyzes a relationship between the fund-generating coefficient and

underwriting results by four insurance lines (2 property and 2 liability). We found that auto
liability and medical malpractice lines show much higher fund-generating coefficients, implying
higher investment earnings associated with a longer settlement period. Therefore, insurers are
willing to sell liability insurance policies at underwriting losses while they have to reply on
underwriting gain on property lines with lower fund-generating coefficients. The data collected
in the study confirms that the cash-flow underwriting practice does exist. A future research on
this subject can derive equilibrium or theoretical underwriting returns and compare to actual
underwriting data.
Table 1: Combined Ratios (CR)

(1996-2013)
All Auto Auto Physical Medical Homeowners

Industry Liability Damage Malpractice Multiple Peril
2013 0.9639 1.0393 0.9920 0.8936 0.9035
2012 1.0328 1.0365 1.0087 0.9316 1.0414
2011 1.0801 1.0322 1.0041 0.8796 1.2234
2010 1.0261 1.0458 0.9400 0.8890 1.0703
2009 1.0046 1.0560 0.9367 0.8555 1.0587
52
2008 1.0510 1.0226 0.9565 0.7926 1.1655

2007 0.9551 1.0062 0.9317 0.8490 0.9567
2006 0.9281 0.9778 0.9103 0.9076 0.8901
2005 1.0084 0.9733 0.9043 1.0033 1.0046
2004 0.9851 0.9888 0.8667 1.0988 0.9453
2003 1.0016 1.0230 0.9141 1.3868 0.9821
2002 1.0739 1.0980 0.9564 1.4194 1.0924
2001 1.1573 1.1377 1.0213 1.5357 1.2166
2000 1.1016 1.1467 1.0881 1.3242 1.1136
1999 1.0788 1.0883 1.0023 1.2868 1.0819
1998 1.0566 1.0411 1.0067 1.1767 1.0941
1997 1.0163 1.0184 0.9976 1.1255 1.0095
1996 1.0584 1.0212 1.0259 1.0984 1.2168
Average 1.0322 1.0418 0.9702 1.0808 1.0593
Combined Ratio (CR): Loss Ratio plus Expense Ratio
Table 2: Funds-Generating Coefficient (FGC)

All Industry (1996-2013)
UPR LR NPW FGC

2013 220,453,891 596,711,138 481,705,445 1.69640
2012 210,941,096 603,179,216 460,968,626 1.76611
2011 203,260,938 600,707,917 441,997,964 1.81894
2010 199,291,899 569,505,045 426,252,627 1.80362
2009 197,674,829 564,277,773 423,128,170 1.80076
2008 201,422,115 567,397,802 440,382,756 1.74580
2007 204,165,491 544,213,598 446,968,640 1.67434
2006 201,721,585 523,854,257 448,932,081 1.61623
2005 193,687,581 512,504,119 426,794,517 1.65464
2004 185,931,470 471,089,274 425,391,932 1.54451
2003 174,429,337 430,618,052 404,342,450 1.49637
2002 156,298,711 400,060,199 367,580,872 1.51357
2001 134,734,920 377,160,621 320,763,809 1.59586
2000 122,607,155 362,379,916 296,788,133 1.63412
1999 118,574,112 367,226,056 286,343,349 1.69657
1998 113,781,174 368,865,278 279,765,130 1.72518
1997 109,761,605 367,653,926 275,984,295 1.72986
1996 105,213,551 368,920,314 268,385,434 1.76662
Average 169,663,970 477,573,583 384,582,013 1.68219
53
UPR: Unearned Premium Reserve

LR: Loss & Loss Adjustment Expense Reserve
NPW: Net Premiums Written
FGC :(UPR + LR)/NPW
Table 3: Funds-Generating Coefficients (FGC)

Auto Liability (1996-2013)
UPR LR NPW FGC

2013 71,861,470 124,181,464 125,877,942 1.55740
2012 66,874,458 121,026,463 120,474,757 1.55967
2011 63,436,081 119,341,670 116,912,432 1.56337
2010 61,296,964 118,072,708 113,965,483 1.57389
2009 57,680,382 116,042,681 111,405,375 1.55938
2008 56,407,699 113,048,270 112,382,035 1.50786
2007 55,585,788 112,541,347 114,066,752 1.47394
2006 55,084,982 111,491,651 115,177,059 1.44627
2005 52,469,721 110,949,098 114,606,110 1.42592
2004 49,607,187 107,569,610 112,542,066 1.39660
2003 45,768,180 103,884,287 107,780,183 1.38850
2002 40,034,426 99,184,687 99,390,745 1.40073
2001 35,162,415 94,389,456 89,874,343 1.44148
2000 32,419,027 91,663,203 82,899,748 1.49677
1999 30,672,119 90,812,070 82,718,983 1.46864
1998 29,009,303 91,371,775 83,780,455 1.43686
1997 26,902,488 92,339,788 83,444,319 1.42900
1996 25,432,720 92,990,783 80,829,131 1.46511
Average 47,539,189 106,161,167 103,784,884 1.47730
Auto Physical Damage (1996-2013)
UPR LR NPW FGC

2013 25,087,090 5,417,947 72,988,920 0.41794
2012 23,672,757 5,043,798 69,730,146 0.41182
2011 22,773,630 5,090,618 67,614,908 0.41210
2010 22,706,613 4,977,604 67,482,687 0.41024
2009 22,593,890 5,153,742 67,878,954 0.40878
2008 23,368,261 5,650,086 70,079,719 0.41408
2007 23,987,482 5,568,635 71,274,527 0.41468
2006 23,936,343 5,330,838 72,158,863 0.40559
2005 23,756,501 5,714,397 71,881,014 0.41000
54
2004 23,608,006 5,701,940 71,918,182 0.40755

2003 22,953,031 5,489,230 69,117,223 0.41151
2002 21,667,894 5,326,815 64,984,380 0.41540
2001 20,169,548 4,853,455 60,057,028 0.41665
2000 18,963,224 4,902,946 56,480,396 0.42256
1999 18,650,046 4,650,574 54,517,165 0.42740
1998 17,514,875 4,543,771 51,853,434 0.42540
1997 16,286,875 4,197,412 48,438,000 0.42290
1996 15,077,129 3,904,747 44,823,628 0.42348
Average 21,487,400 5,084,364 64,071,065 0.41545

FGC :(UPR + LR)/NPW
Table 4: Funds-Generating Coefficients (FGC)

Homeowners Multiple Peril (1996-2013)
UPR LR NPW FGC

2013 39,268,825 20,325,831 71,861,469 0.82930
2012 36,689,410 22,292,008 66,874,457 0.88197
2011 34,645,420 22,563,626 63,436,080 0.90184
2010 33,775,476 21,109,152 61,296,963 0.89539
2009 32,212,766 19,751,836 57,680,381 0.90091
2008 30,907,291 21,272,796 56,407,698 0.92505
2007 30,987,918 18,204,894 55,585,787 0.88499
2006 30,779,991 17,170,935 55,084,981 0.87049
2005 28,859,359 19,036,927 52,469,720 0.91284
2004 27,037,444 15,982,652 49,607,186 0.86722
2003 24,781,738 14,930,114 45,768,179 0.86767
2002 21,844,319 13,642,321 40,034,425 0.88640
2001 19,171,854 12,302,435 35,162,414 0.89511
2000 17,755,278 10,837,279 32,419,026 0.88197
1999 16,898,832 9,975,472 30,672,118 0.87618
1998 16,029,472 9,442,828 29,009,302 0.87807
1997 15,025,984 8,741,327 26,902,487 0.88346
1996 14,235,844 9,569,299 25,432,719 0.93600
Average 26,161,512 15,952,874 47,539,188 0.88749
55
Medical Malpractice (1996-2013)
UPR LR NPW FGC

2013 4,461,223 28,190,342 8,534,660 3.82576
2012 4,523,287 28,889,367 8,715,086 3.83389
2011 4,633,287 28,850,627 8,834,878 3.71523
2010 4,639,290 29,063,002 9,102,898 3.68329
2009 4,642,889 29,548,617 9,212,300 3.63574
2008 4,739,002 29,880,383 9,527,767 3.54774
2007 4,897,896 30,301,192 9,974,600 3.45342
2006 4,887,521 30,072,691 10,410,485 3.33970
2005 4,602,315 28,942,272 10,025,455 3.48149
2004 4,199,511 27,213,953 9,129,679 3.75393
2003 3,862,799 26,199,947 8,739,285 3.75375
2002 3,397,087 22,902,426 7,456,409 4.10533
2001 2,952,013 21,550,109 6,214,131 4.69124
2000 2,482,402 20,917,631 5,649,151 4.49357
1999 2,301,857 21,020,090 5,166,260 4.61687
1998 2,404,931 21,054,676 5,196,204 4.48838
1997 2,355,209 20,987,533 4,971,734 4.70164
1996 2,409,561 21,131,538 4,947,389 4.74275
Average 3,799,560 25,928,689 7,878,243 3.99243

FGC :(UPR + LR)/NPW
56
Figure 1: Fund-Generating Coefficients (FGC)

Auto Liability vs. Auto Physical Damage
(1996-2013)
1.80000
1.60000
1.40000
1.20000
1.00000 Auto Liability
0.80000
Auto Physical Damage
0.60000
0.40000
0.20000
0.00000
57
Figure 2: Fund-Generating Coefficients (FGC)

Homeowners vs. Medical Malpractice
(1996-2013)
5.00000
4.50000
4.00000
3.50000
3.00000
2.50000 Homeowners Multiple Peril
2.00000
Medical Malpractice
1.50000
1.00000
0.50000
0.00000
2000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bibliography
Biger, Nahum and Yehuda Kahane. (1978) Risk Consideration in Insurance Ratemaking, the
Journal of Risk and Insurance. 45, 121 132.
Fairley, William B. (1979). Investment Income and Profit Margins in Property-Liability

Insurance: Theory and Empirical Results, Bell Journal of Economics. 10, 192 210.
Gron, Anne. (1994) Capacity Constraints and Cycles in Property - Casualty Insurance Markets,
RAND Journal of Economics, 25 (1), 110 127.
Hill, Raymond D. (1979) Profit Regulation in Property-Liability Insurance, Bell Journal of

Economics. 10, 172 191.
Kang, Han & Joaquin, Domingo. (2012) Interest Rates, Insurance Capacity and Cyclical
Underwriting Profits Revisited, The International Journal of Business, Accounting, and
Finance, 6, (1), 132 141.
Kahane, Yehuda (1978). Generation of Investable Funds and the Portfolio Behavior of the Non-
Life Insurers, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 45 (1), 65 77.
Wen, M and P. Born. (2005). Firm-Level Data Analysis of the Effects of Net Investment Income
on Underwriting Cycles: An Application of Simultaneous Equations, The Journal of
Insurance issues, 28, 14 32.
58
On Definition, Measurement and Use of Free Cash Flow Concept in Financial Analysis:
A Critique
Shyam B. Bhandari* and Mollie T. Adams**
Cash flow matters to all individuals and organizations. For a business organization the cash
flow statement (CFS) is one of the four major financial statements included in its annual report.
Many cash flow metrics are available and can be derived from this financial statement. However,
a new cash flow term, called free cash flow (FCF) was first coined by Jensen (1986) in the
context of agency conflict. He defined FCF as cash flow in excess of that required to fund all
projects that have positive net present values when discounted at the relevant cost of capital.
According to Jensen Conflict of interest between stockholders and managers over payment
policies are especially severe when the organization generates substantial free cash flow. He
proposed the Free Cash Flow Theory of Takeovers and cited a few studies to support his
theory. He neither measured nor performed empirical analysis to support various FCF
hypotheses. Nevertheless the FCF concept has become very popular among financial analysts,
academics and textbook authors. The purpose of this paper is to review and critique definitions,
measurement and use of the FCF in existing literature. The paper ends with recommendations for
a course of action needed for the future use of this concept.
The phrase free cash flow is an intuitively appealing concept to both laymen and analysts.
The pre-fix free makes FCF a very attractive and meaningful term for all the stakeholders in an
organization whether for-profit or non-profits. FCF can be perceived as funds distributable to
shareholders or spendable by managers or both. However, Jensens definition of FCF is very
open-ended; it allows analysts, researchers, and managers to use their discretion and personal
biases in calculating a firms FCF. Analysts choice of all projects that have positive net present
value and cost of capital can influence measurement of FCF. Therefore, FCF is more suitable
for intra-company analysis, discussion and decision making rather than inter-company
comparison unless a standardized metric is agreed upon by academics and professionals.
Use of FCF in Financial Research
Subsequent to Jensens (1986) paper, researchers used the FCF concept in different context.
Most of these researchers used their own metrics of FCF and tested FCF theory in dividend
policy (Agarwal and Jayaraman 1994; Bowden and Posch 2011; Fuller and Blau 2010), valuation
(Awasthi et al 2013; Phillips 2003; and Vogt and Vu 2000 and Shefrin 2014), portfolio
performance (Hackel 1994; Krueger and Wrosland 2013), wealth effect (Lee 1998), share
repurchase (Vafeas and Joy 1995; Choi and Park 1997), sales growth (Brush et al 2000),
international joint venture (Chen et al 2000), operating performance (Freund et al 2003), straight
debt issues (Howton et al 1998), advertising budget (Joseph and Richardson 2002), golden
parachutes (Subramaniam and Daley 2000), capital structure (Buus 2015), stock prices (Decamp
et al 2011), bankruptcy (Dhumale 1998), and audit fees (Griffin et al 2010) to name a few.
Shyam B. Bhandari*, Professor of Finance, Department of Finance and Quantitative Methods,
Bradley University, (309) 677-2269, [email protected].
Mollie T. Adams**, Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Bradley University, (309)
677-2284, [email protected].
59
Most of FCF related research can be divided into two groups. The first group involves
research papers which defined, measured and performed empirical analysis to support their
hypothesis; however, these all had their own unique FCF metrics. Space limitation does not
allow us to list each of these metrics but a few examples follow: Agrawal and Jayraman (1994),
Vafeas and Joy (1995) and. Lee (1998) measured FCF as operating income before depreciation,
minus interest expense, taxes, and dividends (both common and preferred). Hackel et al (1994)
used two definitions of FCF and discussed deficiencies in estimating FCF. According to them
FCF is net operating cash flow in excess of capital expenditure and a second, that is equivalent
to the first but adds back discretionary cash flows... Phillips (2003) used FCF as Cash Flow
from Operation (CFO) less the increase in plant and net working capital. Freund et al (2003) and
Choi and Park (1997) both measured FCF based on all income statement data and none from
CFS. Howton et al (1998) defined FCF equal to operating income minus interest minus cash
dividends minus net taxes.
The second group of researchers simply inserted FCF in the title of their paper but neither
defined nor measured FCF, much less used it in their empirical analysis. These remind us of the
famous commercial, where is the beef? For example see papers of Bowden and Posch (2011),
Decamps et al (2011), and Fuller and Blau (2010). Bowden and Posch (2011) invoked the FCF
concept as a constraint on managerial bonuses and shareholder dividends without defining and
calculating FCF or performing empirical analysis. Decamps et al (2011) likewise indirectly
connected FCF with undistributed profits, which managers use to their advantage - an agency
conflict scenario. Fuller and Blau (2010) referenced the FCF problem in connection with high
and low dividend payment policies. Their empirical model did not have FCF as a test variable.
Dhumale (1998) claimed validation of FCF theory without computing FCF much less including
it as one of the predictor variables in his bankruptcy prediction model. He tried twenty-one ratios
to construct the model. Four ratios had cash flow in the numerator but not a single ratio had FCF.
Kissan and Richardson (2002) used change in discretionary money and Subarmaniam and Daley
(2000) used net capital expenditure to asset ratio as a surrogate for FCF.
Awasthi et al (2013) investigated the relationship between different FCF metrics and the
value of the firm; the unique feature of their study is that they calculated a number of FCFs from
publicly available information. Krueger and Wrosland (2013) used FCF data from Morningstar,
Inc. to construct a more efficient portfolio. Stephen and Vu (2000) used Value Lines Large free
Cash Flow Generator data to test Jensens (1986) FCF hypothesis. Mills et al (2002), list twelve
different definitions of FCF in use by corporations, magazines, textbooks, and publishers of
financial information. In the light of the discussion above, it is obvious that there are just too
many metrics of FCF which were used to draw conclusions leading to the question of whether
these conclusions will hold if an alternative metric was used.
Definition and Calculation of FCF in Finance Textbooks
Many textbook authors have defined and given a computation formula for FCF. There is no
unanimity among them and when applied to financial data of a company (Caterpillar Inc. as an
example here, see Appendix for key financial statement data) we get different numbers. For
example, Brigham and Houston (2016; 75) defines FCF as the amount of cash that could be
withdrawn without harming a firms ability to operate and to produce future cash flows. Their
measurement formula and calculation (in millions) of Caterpillars FCF for the year 2014 is:
FCFBrigham = [EBIT (1-Tax rate) + Depreciation] [Capital Expenditure + Net Operating
60
Working Capital]
= [5952 (1-.2715) + 3087] [3379 + 2819] = 1,225
Ross et al (2013: 32), while admitting that in practice there is some variation in exactly how
free cash flow is computed, prefer to use the term total cash flow or distributable cash flow
rather than FCF and measure it as CFO plus adjustment to capital spending and addition to net
working capital. i.e.
FCFRoss = CFO + Capital Spending + Net Working Capital = 10,191 3,379 + 952 =7,764
Cornett et al (2012; 48) defined FCF as after-tax operating profit minus the amount of new
investment in working, capital, fixed assets and the development of new product i.e.
FCFCornett = [EBIT (1-Tax rate) + Depr.] [Gross fixed assets + Net operating working
capital]
= [5952(1-.2715) + 3087] [614 +374 + 2819] = 3,646
Brealey et al (2015; 67) defined FCF as cash available for distribution to investors after the firm
pays for new investments or additions to working capital. Their computation formula is simply
cash flow from operations minus capital expenditure; both numbers are available from the cash
flow statement.
FCFBrealey = CFO Capital Expenditure = 10,191 3379 = 6,812
According to Palepu and Healy (2013; 5-26), any excess cash flow after these long term
investments is free cash flow that is available for both debt holders and equity holders. They
suggest that the analyst should focus on four different cash flow measures: two relating to CFO
and two relating to FCF. Palepu and Healys (2013) formula for FCF available to equity is:
FCFPalepu = CFO Net Investment Interest (1-T) = 10,191 -3,379 1108 (1-.2715) = 6,511
The reader can see that FCF for Caterpillar Inc. for year 2014 can range from $1,215 to
$7,764 depending on which textbook formula is used. This calls for an urgent need for consensus
among academics and professionals to precisely define and measure FCF.
Conclusion and Recommendation

Jensen (1986) introduced the idea of FCF in the context of agency theory. He hypothesized
that FCF, if not paid out to shareholders, encourages managers to invest in unprofitable projects.
Since then academics used a variety of metrics of FCF to a variety of financial issues to support
Jensens hypotheses. In the absence of consensus for a clearly defined metric of FCF analyst will
continue to use their unique measure and draw conclusions which may not be valid, otherwise.
The fact that FCF is not mentioned as an accounting concept in Financial Accounting
Standards Boards (FASB) Standard No. 95 (1987) now codified under FASB Accounting
Standards Codification 230-10, the FCF metrics will be at wild discretion of users and
publishers. The conclusions drawn will be biased, difficult to interpret and may not hold under
an alternative measure of FCF. Discretionary use of FCF metrics has undermined the perceived
importance and usefulness of information available in the cash flow statement (CFS). While
discretionary FCF measures may be useful in intra-firm analysis and decision making purposes,
for inter-firm analysis a standardized FCF metric is imperative. Since the CFS contains
information using a standard measurement as prescribed by US Generally Accepted Accounting
Principles (GAAP), the FCF measures derived from the CFS are, therefore more desirable and
reliable for inter-firm analysis than discretionary FCF measures.
61
In our opinion FCF is supposed to be free cash available for distribution to stockholders
after capital expenditures needed to sustain current operations (not growth) are met.
Managements wasteful use of this free cash in unprofitable projects is consistent with the
agency problem propounded by Jensen (1986). Therefore, any analysis and research effort on
this topic must involve a standardized measure of the FCF and an empirical analysis to support
the researchers hypothesis. We suggest the following guidelines to develop a standardized FCF
metric:
1. It must be simple
2. It should be based on information derived from the cash flow statement (CFS)
3. It should start with the cash flow from operating activities (CFO) from the CFS
4. Adjustment to CFO for capital expenditures and contractual cash obligations unaccounted
for (e.g. taxes, debt service, preferred dividends)
5. The focus should be stockholders
6. Supported by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and included in the US
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).
Until a consensus is developed based upon guidelines mentioned above we recommend that
free cash flow is simply cash flow from operation (CFO) minus capital expenditure items from
the cash flow from investment (CFI) as reported on the CFS i.e.
FCF = CFO Capital Expenditures.
Appendix:
Key Financial Statement Data of Caterpillar Inc.
(Dollars in millions)
Year 2014 2013

Total sales and revenues 55,182 55,656
Total interest expense 1,108 1,192
Operating profit (EBIT) 5,952 6,355
Income taxes 1380 1319
Profit (Net Income) 3,695 3,789
Current assets 38.867 38,335
Current liabilities 27,877 27297
Cash flow from operating activities (CFO) 8,057 10.191
Depreciation and amortization 3,163 3,087
Cash flow from investment activities (CFI) (3,627) (5,046)
Capital expenditure (1,539) (2.522)
Expenditures for equipment leased (1,840) (1.924)
Other CFI items net (248) (600)
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62
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64
Are Founder CEOs Different from Agent CEOs?
Evidence from Radical Innovation and Firm Performance
Rangapriya (Priya) Kannan-Narasimhan, Ph.D.*, Ruixiang Wang**, and
Pengcheng Zhu, Ph.D.***
ABSTRACT
This paper explores whether a CEOs influence on a firms capacity to create and derive value
from radical innovations differs for founder CEOs versus agent CEOs. While a majority of
studies have looked at differences between founder and agent CEOs in an exploitation context,
we look at it in an exploration contextthrough the lens of radical innovations. We hypothesize
that founder CEOs are more likely to generate and derive greater value from radical innovations
as compared to agents over the course of their tenure. We also find that this effect is more
pronounced in industries with high firm rivalry as compared to industries that have low firm
rivalry. Interestingly, while an inverted U-shaped curve between CEO tenure and a firms
innovation performance suggested by seasons of tenure literature holds in an exploitation
context, in an exploratory context, we find a regular U-shaped relationship. Overall, this paper
contributes to the theory and practice of how a founder versus an agent CEOs tenure affects firm
innovation and resulting firm performance. Results suggest that using similar yardsticks to
evaluate CEOs performance, under exploration versus exploitation conditions, especially in high
rivalry environments, might be detrimental to firms potential success.
Keywords: exploration, exploitation, radical innovations, firm performance, founder versus

agent CEOs, CEO tenure, CEO performance, market rivalry
Rangapriya (Priya) Kannan-Narasimhan*, Assistant Professor of Management, School of

Business, University of San Diego, (619) 260-2386; [email protected].
Ruixiang Wang**, MBA candidate, School of Business, University of San Diego, (619) 621-
4286; [email protected].
Pengcheng Zhu***, Assistant Professor of Finance, School of Business, University of San Diego,
(619) 260-2382; [email protected].
65
Economic Sustainability and the Utilization of the Commercial Banking Model

in the Microfinancing Industry: A Longitudinal Study of the
Opportunity International Bank of Malwai
Dr. Marc McIntosh*
This longitudinal study explores whether organizational outcomes are improved significantly
as a result of a microfinancing institution transforming its business model from a non-
governmental organizational (NGO) structure to one which operates as a for-profit formal
financial institution. The study re-analyzed an existing data set from a 2006 study done of the
Opportunity International Bank of Malawi (OIBM). The original study was used to illustrate that
despite a fragile economy and multiple constraints in the financial markets, a microfinance
institution, using a commercial banking model, can achieve profitability without compromising
altruistic mission objectives. The key factors contributing to this optimization of the twin goals
of sustainability and outreach were investigated. The central hypothesis tested was: in an
underdeveloped financial market, a microfinancing institution can achieve substantial
profitability and outreach using a commercial banking model. This study re-analyzed interview
responses from key officials at OIBM and well as quantitative and qualitative analysis of the
bank, exploring both external and internal factors contributing to economic sustainability. The
data analysis used first considered bank documents and in depth interview methods, as well as
interview questions based on theoretical constructs surrounding financial sustainability. As a
result, factors influencing financial performance were discovered.
Results for this studys primary research questions revealed that for OIBM, several factors
call into question whether a commercial banking model is an ideal organizational structure for
optimizing the twin goals of sustainability and outreach to the literally thousands of poor micro
entrepreneurs in the Third World who would be economically empowered by small loans
provided by microcredit institutions. Further analysis done of the microfinance institutions
evolution over the nearly ten year period since the original study revealed macro and micro
operational challenges relating to: (i) corporate governance and internal controls; (ii) optimizing
operational efficiency in a digital/mobile environment where legacy infrastructure is becoming
increasingly irrelevant; (iii) management of the institutional intermediation process regarding the
deployment of savings capital to lendees; (iv) uncontrollable macro-economic challenges relating
to commodity price fluctuations, currency devaluations, and political corruption as a result of
being located in one of the poorest countries in the world; (v) operating as a highly visible,
regulated formal financial institution which demands large infusions of equity capital; (vi)
mission/culture creep: and (vii) opportunity costs as a result of the time, energy and resources
necessary to maintain economic sustainability and regulatory adherence.
The results of this study run counter to findings in other studies that suggest that a
transformation to a for-profit commercial banking structure, with the use of depositor savings
Marc McIntosh*, Assistant Professor, Department of Business Administration, Augsburg

College, (612) 330-1381; [email protected]
66
and financial leverage, can increase the amount of financial capital available to be lent to micro
entrepreneurs in developing countries, with minimal economic consequences. Microfinance
practitioners and social capital researchers should find the analysis and results from this
longitudinal study helpful in determining whether there needs to be a shift in microfinancing
organizational strategy, particularly away from the commercial banking model. This study
suggests that there are new, powerful macro and micro forces that play a key role in the
optimization of long term financial sustainability for a micro financing institution operating in
the challenging Third World environment.
67
The effects of product recalls on group companies: Evidence from a Korean chaebol
Ingyu Chiou*, Hoyoung Kim**, and William C. Minnis***
A chaebol in South Korea is a conglomerate or business group that consists of many

companies in different industries. In most chaebols, there are at least four common
characteristics. First, the founding family of a chaebol has controlling power over all the
operations of group-affiliated companies. Second, chaebol-affiliated companies often do
business with one another. Third, companies in a Korean business group hold shares of other
group companies. Finally, these conglomerates maintain strong ties with government agencies.
According to the Korean government data, top 10 business groups have consistently
generated total annual revenues that exceed 70% of the countrys GDP. Given the importance of
business groups to the Korean economy, it is not surprising that many scholars have studied
chaebols from different aspects. Chang (2012) uses surveys and HR manager interviews to
study characteristics of human resources management (HRM) systems in Samsung Electronic
Corporation (SEC), which is the leading company in Koreas largest chaebol. He documents
what recent changes have been made in SEC and suggests needed changes in the firms HRM
systems. Jung, Kim, & Kim (2009) examine tax-induced income shifting behavior among
affiliated firms in Korean business groups (chaebols). They suggest that tax-motivated income
shifting activities exist among chaebol firms, and that the degree of income shifting depends on
its effect on non-tax cost factors such as the earnings, leverage, and cash flow rights of the
controlling shareholders. Baek, Kang, & Lee (2006) investigate whether equity-linked private
securities offerings are used as a mechanism for tunneling among firms that belong to a
Korean chaebol. They find that chaebol securities issuers involved in intra-group deals set the
offering prices to benefit their controlling shareholders. This result is consistent with the theory
of tunneling within business groups.
Our paper attempts to fill a gap in business-group research by investigating how the stock
market reacts to automobile defect recalls, announced by Hyundai Motor Company of South
Korea, which belongs to the Hyundai group or chaebol. Specifically, we examine how each
recall announcement affects the stock prices of other Hyundai group companies. Our research
employs the event study methodology to examine the abnormal stock returns of group companies.
Further analysis of how firm characteristics are related to abnormal stock returns will be conducted
through multivariate regression models.
Ingyu Chiou*, Professor of Finance, School of Business, Eastern Illinois University, (217)581-6036;
[email protected]
Hoyoung Kim**, MBA Candidate, School of Business, Eastern Illinois University, (217)381-5524; [email protected]
William C. Minnis***, Associate Professor of Management, School of Business, Eastern Illinois University,
(217)581-6939; [email protected]
68
So far, we have examined 8 major recalls over the period 2012-2015. In most of 8 events,
the average abnormal return is negative and significant at the 5% level. This result indicates that
because Hyundai group firms are closely related, the product recalls of Hyundai Motor Company
lead to damaging effects on other group companies. This evidence reflects the downside risk of
forming a corporate group, which is popular in a lot of Asian countries.
69
Hedge Fund Performance: Pre and Post-crisis: Does it add up?
Nandita Das*
Abstract
We study hedge fund performance for a twenty year period from 1995 to 2015. We
divide the study period into sub-groups of 48 months to understand the impact of hedge funds on
the financial crisis or the impact of macroeconomic event on hedge fund return. Our goal is to
see if hedge funds as a whole or if any particular hedge fund category performance were better
in withering the financial crisis or if the hedge funds were adversely (disproportionately) affected
by the financial crisis. We also study the role government policies (used to get the economy out
of the great recession) had in the post-crisis performance of hedge fund categories.
Introduction
Hedge funds have enjoyed healthy growth through the years and continue to increase in
popularity especially among high net worth individuals. Recently, an increasing number of
institutions have allocated a small portion of their assets to these alternative investments owing
to their long-term success. But the term hedge fund is used to describe a wide range of
investment vehicles that can vary substantially in terms of size, strategy, and organizational
structures.
One commonality surrounding hedge funds is the limited amount of information provided
to potential investors. Typically information is limited to periodic (monthly, quarterly, or annual)
returns. Even the leading hedge-fund databases provide incomplete information drawn from the
fund-offering documents such as contractual provisions (fee structure, minimum investment size,
and withdrawal provisions), descriptions of investments, styles of investment, and the periodic
return. Hedge fund industry has grown from USD 135 billion dollars and there were around 2000
funds in 1996 to 1996 to USD 2000 billion and 10,000 hedge funds t o 2.9 trillion industry in
2015.
Nandita Das*, Associate Professor of Finance, College of Business, Delaware State University, 302-857-6940,
[email protected]
70
Methodology
We study the impact of these changes on the hedge-fund performance. Was regulation the
answer to the role of hedge funds, if any, on the financial crisis and how did these actions impact
the different categories of hedge funds? We study the hedge fund performance pre and post crisis
using macroeconomic model. Our study-period consists of 20 years from 1995 to 2014. We
break the study period in to 5 subgroups of 48 months each and complete study period of 240
months. We use CISDM database that provides monthly return of hedge funds.
The study period is chosen so as to study the impact of the financial crisis and the
government policies that followed the 2007-2008 crisis, the period from August 2007 to
December 2009 is the period that includes major economic events; namely, 2007 Housing
Bubble and 2008 Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). The complete study period of 240
months includes the financial crisis 2007.
Our study consists of five sub-periods of 48 months each: January 1995 to December
1998, January 1999 to December 2002, January 2003 to December 2006, January 2007 to
December 2010, January 2011 to December 2014 and the total period (240 months) from
January 1995 to December 2014. The study period is chosen to have enough observations for
the maximum number of hedge funds. The study period is divided into three sub-periods of 48
months each in order to see if study period has any significant impact on the results and at the
same time have enough observations to have statistically meaningful results.
Our study uses an approach similar to that of Chen et al. (1986) and the specific variables
from Connor (1995) to model hedge fund returns to see if similar factors explain hedge fund
returns. Thus, our macroeconomic hypothesis is stated below.
H o : The macroeconomic factors (DP, INF, Term, IP, and UR which are defined below)
that explain equity returns also have explanatory power for hedge fund returns.
H a : The macroeconomic factors that explain equity returns have no explanatory power
for hedge fund returns.
The model can be expressed as:

Rit i DPi DPt INFi INFt TERMi TERM t IPi IPt URi URt t (
1)
where is the (N x1) vector of observed return for N hedge fund categories for time period t;
is the (N x1) vector of ones; is the (K x1) vector of macroeconomic risk factors for time period
t; is the (N x K) matrix of factor sensitivities; is the variance-covariance matrix of
disturbances; is the variance-covariance matrix of macroeconomic risk factors; and is a (K x N)
matrix of zeroes.
71
Before utilizing our model, we tested for the presence of multicollinearity,

heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation using variance-inflating factors, Whites general
heteroscedasticity test, and Newey-West variance-covariance estimator, respectively. The
general findings support the position that our model should not be adversely affected by the
presence of multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, or autocorrelation.
The most recent financial crisis has led to many regulatory changes in hedge fund
industry. The politicization of regulatory politics and the pressure from EU countries has resulted
in the regulation of hedge fund industry that is same across all countries. Hedge-funds initially
managed to keep away from strict regulation unlike mutual funds and other investments. Hedge
funds caught the attention of policy-makers not because of the recent financial crisis but more so
because of their astronomical growth over past two decades and also because of their alleged
involvement in some of the financial instability of 1990s. In the prior financial crisis, hedge-
funds were encouraged to a self-regulatory standard especially in US. This was because the
regulatory authorities were concerned about the cost of their regulatory actions in terms of lost
efficiency and profitability of the financial sector. The lobbying power of hedge funds as a whole
and the impact on the financial sector of US resulted in regulators opting for Best Practice as
against stricter regulatory standard for the hedge fund industry. The subsequent financial crisis of
2007 squarely laid the blame on hedge funds along with other financial market participants and
resulted in regulation of the industry with an international coordination.
Results and Conclusion
The regression results using five-factor macroeconomic model show that only one state
variables default premium is significant. The inclusion of the explanatory variables in the model
was based on the premises that as hedge funds and mutual funds trade in the same asset classes,
the macroeconomic variables that have been found to have explanatory power in explaining
return data of US equities should also be able to explain hedge fund return.
The economic interpretation of the positive coefficient of the default premium indicates the
hedge funds profit by taking advantage of the expected change in yield spread between long term
government bonds and low grade bonds. As the spread widens, the fund is able to gain additional
compensation (increased yield) for switching into riskier debt instruments (i.e., an inter-market
spread swap). When the yield narrows, the fund is able to increase quality with little loss of yield
by switching from low quality bonds to high quality bonds. The coefficient of default premium is
significant at a 10% level of significance or better and this is true within all the sub-periods, the
complete study-period, and for all of the categories of hedge funds. The signs of the coefficient
of growth in industrial production (IP) and change in unemployment rate (UR) are not
consistent. The coefficients are not significant for any of the study periods. In the
72
multiple-factor model used in our analysis, testing the individual significance of the
macroeconomic factors (DP, INF, Term, IP, and UR) is not the same as testing the overall
significance of the macroeconomic factor model.
The results lend support to the similarity hypothesis that the macroeconomic factors that
explain equity return also have explanatory power for hedge fund returns. Although not all the R-
square values are impressive, it appears that the model does explain approximately 40% of the
variation in hedge fund return. Our study show that not all categories of hedge funds suffered
equally during the financial crisis. Equity-based firms performed better than arbitrage-based
hedge funds during the crisis. Hedge funds as a group are not more susceptible to the economic
downturns than any other financial asset class
Future Work
We would like to continue this work to understand the impact of post-crisis regulatory
changes on hedge fund performance. Specifically did specific categories get impacted more than
other categories? What was the impact of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) on hedge-fund performance?
73
How do financial ratios affect corporate performance? Evidence from Bangladesh
Ingyu Chiou* and Sharif Islam**
The financial health of a firm is of great concern to its bondholders, creditors, customers,
shareholders, suppliers, and other stakeholders. Naturally, understanding what causes a profit or
loss of a company is important. One basic question is how the performance of a company is
determined. Because business failure can negatively affect many related parties of a company, a
more important question is how to predict corporate failure. In the past few decades, the topic of
corporate failure predictions has developed into a major research domain within corporate
finance. To investigate this issue, academic scholars have developed a few methods: univariate
analysis, risk index models, multivariate discriminant analysis, conditional probability models,
and so on. Most previous papers investigate companies from developed countries.
This study examines the effects of 24 ratios (liquidity, financial solvency, activity and
profitability) on the profit or loss of Bangladesh companies. Our paper is different from previous
research in two important aspects. First, we focus on firms in Bangladesh, which is an emerging
market. As emerging markets have become more important in global portfolio management, it is
interesting to see whether the results of an emerging market are similar to those of developed
countries. Second, in addition to using the financial statements in local currency (Taka), we also
convert these original financial statements into U.S. dollar-denominated financial statements. By
doing so, we can conduct the financial analysis from the perspective of U.S. investors, who tend
to be active in global markets.
Our sample consists of 24 companies listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE),
Bangladesh. We compiled financial statements and other data from Capital IQ over the period
2009-2011. The discriminant analysis method is used to classify all observations. Our
preliminary results are as follows. First, each ratio has a significant effect on the profit or loss of
sample firms, but with differing degrees. Second, among 4 sets of ratios, financial ratios have
the highest effect. Liquidity ratios also play an important role in explaining the profit or loss of a
company. Third, the Wilks Lambda value suggests that the discriminant function fails to
explain 12% of the total variance in the discriminant scores when data are in terms of U.S.
dollars. However, when data are denominated in the Taka (local currency), the discriminant
function fails to explain 17% of the total variance in the discriminant scores.
Ingyu Chiou*, Professor of Finance, School of Business, Eastern Illinois University, (217)581-6036;
[email protected]
Sharif Islam**, MBA Candidate, School of Business, Eastern Illinois University, (217)721-2801; [email protected]
74
Is This a Good Time for Households to Pay Down Debt?
Charles W. Johnston*
SHORT ABSTRACT
Statement of Purpose: to use the principles of finance and economics to evaluate and
recommend efficiency improvements to the mainstream advice of personal financial
planners to always pay down debt as much as possible and as soon as possible, before
creating an emergency fund and before investing for a households long-term
financial goals.
Research Method: Both theory and practice are explored, including some empirical
data highlighted to test the authors recommended improvements. Researched
sources include mostly journal articles, U.S. government websites, Federal Reserve
websites, and popular books by personal financial planners, supplemented by college
textbooks, other scholarly books, and current event articles.
Expected Benefits of Findings: Households could learn to better manage their uses of
debt financing to achieve their personal financial goals, by more efficiently using the
principles of finance and economics.
INTRODUCTION
Expand on the short abstract.
Introduce the rest of the paper.
LITERATURE REVIEW
A review of mainstream advice by personal financial planners regarding households
use of debt financing and paying down debt.
A review of the principles of finance and economics related to households use of
debt financing and paying down debt.
* Charles W. Johnston, Chair, Dept. of Economics and Finance, Center for Graduate Studies, Baker College, (810)
766-4394, [email protected].
FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
75
Using the principles of finance and economics to evaluate the mainstream advice of
personal financial planners for households regarding the use of debt financing and
paying down debt.
Analysis of the current empirical data on U.S. households use of debt financing and
paying down debt.
SYNTHESIS/INTEGRATION: RECOMMENDED EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS

Using the principles of finance and economics to recommend efficiency
improvements in the mainstream advice of personal financial planners for
households use of debt financing and paying down debt.
CONCLUSION
* Interesting, important, and timely research
* Most important finding
* Contribution to the literature
* Limitations of this research paper
* Recommended future research

REFERENCES
Journal articles
U.S. Government and Federal Reserve Websites
Popular books by personal financial planners
College textbooks and other scholarly books
Current event articles
76
Looking Beyond the Pale: Evidence that Investors look beyond

Concurrent Annualized Returns in Assigning Corporate Reputations
Thomas M. Krueger* & Mark A. Wrolstad**
Introduction
This analysis evaluates the impact of public perceptions of corporation's reputations on

shareholder returns. We use Reputation Quotients (RQs), which have been produced by Harris
Interactive since 1999 to objectively quantify corporate reputations and we look at both price-
based returns and total returns (i.e., including dividends). The RQ process begins by asking a
large number of people to name businesses that they are familiar with and about which they have
an opinion as to whether they like and respect the companies or not. Those surveyed are then
asked why they like or dislike a given company. From the list of 60 firms published each year,
the Reputation Quotient (RQ) scores are used to gauge corporate reputations and create
portfolios of the ten corporations with the highest RQs (TOP10) and another portfolio consisting
of the ten covered companies with the lowest RQs (BOT10) for each year. This study addresses
a potentially biasing factor found in past RQ studies which assumed that the impact of a firms
reputation lasts exactly one calendar year, regardless of the actual number of intervening days.
One of the first thorough analyzes of the RQ measure was based upon only the first six
RQ announcements (Krueger and Wrolstad, 2007). Share price performance on the day of the
announcement and the year after the announcement were identified. No effort was made to
adjust for situations where there was an overlap of year-long holding periods. Thereafter
Krueger, Wrolstad, and Van Dalsem (2010), study of the impact of stock market performance on
corporate reputation was based on eight observations. They again assumed the impact of a
firms reputation would end one year after the RQ announcement date. Firms with diminishing
reputations tended to have higher stock returns and greater risk. As a consequence, risk-adjusted
returns were similar to that of firms with improved reputations. In a recent study, Gonzalez and
Krueger (2015) find that equal investment in the excellent reputation firms provided a
significantly higher rate of return relative to the Standard & Poors 500 Index.
Thomas M. Krueger*, J.R. Manning Endowed Professor of Innovation in Business Education, College of Business
Administration, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, 361-230-9117, [email protected].
Mark A Wrolstad**, Professor of Finance, College of Business, Winona State University, 507-457-5676,
[email protected]
77
Findings
During the period when reputation data is being acquired, the mean price-based return earned by
firms with the ten worst reputations (i.e., the Bottom Ten (BOT10) portfolio) is higher than that
earned by the ten firms with the highest RQ (TOP10). The mean returns for the BOT10
portfolios are 2.92 percent (i.e., 16.44% - 13.52%) higher than the TOP10 portfolios. However,
the difference is not significant.
Across the entire time period, the TOP10 portfolio has the highest Sharpe values. The difference
in Sharpe measures is 0.107 (i.e., 0.605 0.498), using price-based returns in excess of the return
on short-term Treasury instruments. The difference drops to 0.036 (i.e., 0.698 0.662) using
total returns, which is not surprising given the higher dividend payments of the BOT10 portfolio
firms. Neither difference is significant at the 0.10 level. All respective Sharpe values are higher
when using Total Return as the dependent variable, but none of the t-statistics are significant;
indicating the perceptions regarding firm reputation are not a function of contemporaneous risk-
adjusted returns as measured by the Sharpe model.
Unlike the Sharpe model results, Treynor model values were higher for the TOP10 firms in the
second seven-year period. The TOP10 portfolios 15.67 percent Treynor measure in the last
seven-year period is higher than the first seven years and the BOT10 portfolios value in either
time period. However, the volatility of price-based returns results in a lack of significance. With
regard to the widely- reported Jensens alpha, both the TOP10 and BOT10 portfolio
outperformed the required rate of return during the entire fourteen years. The TOP10 portfolios
annualized excess price-based return was 2.93 percent higher, but insignificant at the 0.10 level.
During the first seven years, the TOP10s portfolio outperformed the required rate of return by
9.66% on an annualized basis. This excess performance declined to 5.70% during the second
half of the sample period, but the decline was statistically insignificant. Although there was a
significant decline in the BOT10 portfolios alpha measure, investors appear to be typically
looking beyond current stock returns when appraising a firms reputation.
References
Gonzales, J., & Krueger, T. M. (2015). The Performance of Firms with Excellent Reputations.
The Empirical Economics Letters, 14(7), 645-658.
Krueger, T. M.. & Wrolstad, M. A. (2007). Corporate Reputation and Investment Value.
Journal of Contemporary Business Issues, 15, 37-45.
Krueger, T. M., Wrolstad, M. A. & Van Dalsem, S., (2010). Contemporaneous Relationship
between Corporate Reputation and Return. Managerial Finance, 36, 482-490.
78
Stock Price Impact of Analysts Opinion and Their Reputation:

Evidence from Online Dissemination of the Opinion
Joonyoung Song*
INTRODUCTION
The efficient market hypothesis assumes that security prices fully and instantaneously
impound all available information. However, many investors believe that publicly held
information such as the analysts recommendations or research papers generates superior returns.
The first issue under investigation is whether or not publicly available analysts
recommendations actually benefit investors by creating significant excess returns. Previous
studies (Barber et al. 2001; Beneish 1991; Glezakos 2001) mainly focus on the impact of the
recommendations which are available only to the users of fee-based databases or subscription-
based publications or financial internet websites. This study uses analysts recommendations
obtained from the Yahoo! Finance which is a popular financial internet website and available to
the public with no charge. It is conjectured that the excess returns subsequent to analysts
recommendations released through the website of Yahoo! Finance may be more significant than
the results from previous studies using the recommendations obtained from fee or subscription
based databases or publications. This study departs from prior work by examining how analysts
reputation influences the recommendations predictability of the future stock price behavior.
Analysts reputation is also compared with some technical and firm-specific financial variables
such as past returns, trading volumes, price variability, firm size, beta, and PE ratio that are
known to be related to the stock price reaction to stock recommendations.
Recommendation updates (upgrade and downgrade) released in Yahoo! Finance during the
period of the earliest available three years between 1998 and 2011 were collected. The number of
total recommendation updates that are appropriate for this study is 1,754 which consist of 943
upgrades (521 stocks) and 811 downgrades (479 stocks). All price and trading volume data are
obtained from the Center for Research in Stocks Prices (CRSP). The Carter-Manaster rankings
(Jay Ritters Web site at http://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/Ritter/rank.pdf) evaluated over 1992-2000
are employed as a proxy for the degree of reliability of the recommendation updates.
Joonyoung Song*, Associate Professor of Finance, College of Business, The University of Findlay, (419) 434-4331;
[email protected].
79
An event window of (-35 days, +35 days) is adopted to measure the impact of recommendation
updates on stock price performance over five weeks before and after the release days of the
updates.
FINDINGS
This study documents that the reaction of stock prices to the recommendation updates begins
even a day prior to the release day of the updates. This finding strongly implies significant
information leakage in the recommendation disseminating process. The impact of analysts
recommendation updates on post-event stock prices is very significant at least over five weeks
after the release day of the updates. The mean excess returns on the release day of upgrade and
downgrade recommendations are 3.87 percent and -5.38 percent, respectively. The mean
cumulative excess returns for a period of five days after the release day of upgrades and
downgrades are almost 5 percent and -6.06 percent, respectively. Recommendation updates
appear to affect the future stock price behavior more significantly when they are disseminated
through easily accessible, non-fee based online sources such as websites like Yahoo! Finance.
Several technical and fundamental variables are considered to investigate how they affect the
stock price reaction to the recommendation updates. Among the variables, firm size and analysts
reputation significantly matter with post-event stock price behaviors over at least five weeks
after the release of the recommendation updates. The smaller cap stocks appear to be more
sensitive to the recommendation updates than the larger cap stocks do. The recommendation
updates issued by more reputable analysts tend to influence more significantly the post-event
stock price behaviors. The stock price reaction to favorable recommendation updates (i.e.,
upgrades) seems to be more pronounced for underperforming and very volatile stocks. However,
this finding is not observed from the case of recommendation downgrades.
Finally, this study sheds light on a short-run profitable trading strategy when an unexpected
recommendation update is released in the stock markets. If investors react in a timely manner to
the changes in analysts recommendations, they could make about 5 percent excess return over
just five-week period by longing stocks on recommendation updates or shorting stocks on
recommendation downgrades.
REFERENCES
Barber, B.M., R. Lehavy, M. McNichols, and B. Trueman, 2001, Can Investors Profit from the
Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns, Journal of Finance 56, 531-
563.
Beneish, Messod D., 1991, Stock Prices and the Dissemination of Analysts Recommendations,
The Journal of Business, Vol. 64, No.3, 393-416.
Glezakos, Michalis, and Anna Merika, 2007, The Impact of Analysts Recommendations:
Evidence From The Athens Stock Exchange, The Journal of Applied Business Research, Vol. 23,
No. 2, 101-110.
80
The Link between Reputation & Destiny:

Insights Based on Annualized Stock Returns
Thomas M. Krueger* & Mark A. Wrolstad**
ABSTRACT
The semi-strong level of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that current
prices reflect all of the publically available information about a firm. Harris Interactive, Inc. has
done extensive polling and data analysis of public perceptions to produce a credible numerical
indicator of corporate reputations for which they have coined the term Reputation Quotient
(RQ). Using RQ information, this research analyzes corporate annualized returns of highly
visible firms with very good reputations and compares their performance with firms with very
poor reputations. Portfolios of the ten firms with the best reputations have higher raw returns
than portfolios of the ten firms with the worst reputations but the difference is not statistically
significant. However, reputations appear to parallel risk, with firms possessing better reputations
having lower return standard deviations and less sensitivity to market conditions. As a
consequence, firms with good reputations have significantly higher Sharpe, Treynor, and
Jensens alpha measures. This observed outperformance was found to be more significant during
the second half of the fourteen year period studied which includes the 2008 financial crisis and
its' aftermath.
Literature Review
This is not the only study comparing the performance of firms with high RQs to those
with low RQs. Prior research (e.g., Krueger and Wrolstad (2007), Krueger, Wrolstad, and Van
Dalsem (2009) and Krueger, Wrolstad, and Van Dalsem (2010)) however assume an investment
horizon of one year, regardless of the duration of the intervening period between the publication
of RQ values. The artificial assumption that the RQs impact lasts for exactly 365 days has the
potential to confound the results. When the interval between RQ announcements is short, there
is likely to be an understatement of the impact of a given RQ announcement. At the opposite
extreme, when the interval between RQ announcements is long, the impact of a given RQ
announcement is likely to be overstated. The variation in excess performance due to the
Thomas M. Krueger*, J.R. Manning Endowed Professor of Innovation in Business Education, College of Business
Administration, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, 361-230-9117, [email protected].
Mark A Wrolstad**, Professor of Finance, College of Business, Winona State University, 507-457-5676,
[email protected]
81
investment horizon is likely to diminish the statistical significance of RQ measure. Although

one could argue that an investor using the RQ methodology could shift to cash twelve months
after an RQ announcement, it is more probable that a typical investor would leave their funds in
an RQ-based portfolio awaiting the next RQ press release.
For this research, we recast the holding period returns into annualized return streams for
the Top 10 and Bottom Ten RQ portfolios and we have completed a detailed investigation of
return, risk, and risk-adjusted return performance of the stock portfolios. An additional change
from previous work done by Krueger, et. al. is the seventy-five percent increase in available
observations which is achieved by the passage of the years since the previous research was
completed.
Findings
The Top 10 Portfolio, consisting of firms with the highest RQ values had the highest
subsequent returns, regardless of whether returns are defined in terms of share prices or total
returns. Although the difference in price-based returns and total returns exceeds four percent, the
difference is not statistically significant suggesting the RQs are poor predictors of subsequent
returns. The Top 10 Portfolio had a dividend yield of 2.15 percent (i.e., 11.65% - 9.5%), while
the dividend yield of Bottom 10 Portfolio was 3.51 percent (i.e., 7.64% - 4.14%). The 1.36
percent difference was able to offset about one fourth of the 5.36 percent (i.e., 9.50% - 4.14%)
difference in price-based returns.
The Top 10 Portfolios Sharpe values are significantly larger at the 0.05 level. The
Top10 Portfolio registering much higher Treynor values. The Top10 Portfolios Jensens alpha
measures exceed the Bottom10 Portfolios alpha estimates. In fact, the Top10 Portfolio provides
positive alpha values, while the Bottom10 Portfolios alpha values are negative, with the
difference being over ten percent whether you include or exclude dividends. The measures of
statistical significance both indicate that we can say with a ninety-five percent level of
confidence that the Top10 Portfolio performed best.
Krueger, Thomas M. & Mark A. Wrolstad, (2007). "Corporate Reputation and Investment
Value", Journal of Contemporary Business Issues, 15, 37-45.
Krueger, Thomas M., Mark A. Wrolstad, & Shane Van Dalsem, (2009). "Do Changes in
Corporate Reputations Impact Subsequent Stock Price Performance?", Journal of the Academy
of Finance, 7 (1&2), 176-185.
Krueger, Thomas M., Mark A. Wrolstad, & Shane Van Dalsem, (2010)." Contemporaneous
Relationship between Corporate Reputation and Return", Managerial Finance, 36, 482-490.
82

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2016 Proceedings of the Academy of Finance

Ashrafee Hossain* and Dao Xuan Nguyen**

Capital structure is an important concept of corporate finance. Capital structure is defined as

Ashrafee Hossain*, Assistant Professor of Finance, Faculty of Business Administration,

2.1 The relation of capital structure and firm performance

Figure 1: The U.S. real interest rates

Source: World Bank (n.d)

2.2 Proposed hypotheses

Based on the above analysis, the following hypotheses are proposed:

3.1 Population and samplings:

3.2 Data measures:

Leverage ratio= (Total debt)/ (Total equity)

As can be seen in table 1, panel A, in terms of absolute values, companies experience a

Panel B divides data correspondent to high-leverage, low-leverage ratio and overall

5.1 Univariate analysis

As discussed earlier, we use return-on-asset, return-on-equity and market-adjusted stock

Figure 2: Oil price in the U.S.

5.2 Regression analysis

Financial leverage has a negative impact on firm performance, especially profitability

Table 1 Panel C (part 1)

Table 1 Panel C (part 2)

Table 2 Summary statistics

Table 2 - Panel B Breakdown by period

Crisis period 0.43 0.12 0.29 0.31

Post-crisis period 0.49 0.15 0.32 0.34

Table 3 Operating performance Return on assets (ROA)

Table 3 - Panel B Breakdown by period

Table 4 Robustness check Return on equity

Table 4 Panel B Breakdown by period

Post crisis period 8.6% 17.8% 13.1% -9.2% -5.87***

Table 5 Stock performance Market-adjusted stock returns

Table 5 - Panel B Breakdown by period

Crisis period 5.7% 12.3% 8.7% -6.5% -2.37**

Post crisis period 7.8% 9.8% 8.7% -2.0% -2.31**

Table 6 Cross-section analysis of ROA

Table 7 - Cross-section analysis of ROE

Table 8 - Cross-section analysis of stock returns

Agnihotri, A. (2014). Impact of StrategyCapital Structure on Firms Overall Financial

Corporate Governance and Performance of Non-Financial Institutions in Pakistan

Rizwan Ali*, Yanping Liu**, Youyuan Zheng ***

KEYWORDS: Corporate Governance, Financing Decisions, Firm Performance, Cross-lag analysis.

JEL Classification: G34, G32, L25

Corporate Governance and Performance of Non-Financial Institutions in Pakistan

Corporate governance is vital for organizational sustainability and absence of it results in

2.2) CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND DIVIDEND POLICY

2.3) CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND FIRM PERFORMANCE

Mehran (1995) examined the positive relationship between percentage of compensation

H3: Corporate governance measures have positive effects on firm performance.

2.4) CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND FIRM PERFORMANCE

Hurdle (1974) disclosed that capital structure influence negatively on profitability in

H4: Capital structure of firm has positive effects on firm performance.

2.5) DIVIDEND POLICY AND FIRM PERFORMANCE

H5: Dividend policy of firm has positive effects on firm performance

FIG-1: HYPOTHESIZED RESEARCH MODEL

TABLE-1: SECTOR WISE PROFILE OF KSE SAMPLE

NO. SECTORS NUMBER OF FIRMS YEARS 2006-2011

3.2) DATA COLLECTION

3.3) DATA ANALYSIS

3.4) STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELS DEVELOPMENT

Rizwan Ali, Yanping Liu, Youyuan Zheng

Rizwan Ali* Inayat U. Mangla Yanping Liu*