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The document provides examples of probability problems and their solutions. The first example calculates the probability that painter Pam will win first prize in an art competition based on the number of paintings each artist submitted and their historical first prize win rates. The second example calculates the probability that a person named Hunter has an allergy to cats based on the results of a cat allergy test and information about the accuracy of the test. The third example calculates the probability of rain at a picnic given that the morning is cloudy and statistics on cloudy mornings and the likelihood of rain in that month.

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Shimanto Kabir
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1K views6 pages

0 Ba 7 Ef 9 D 77

The document provides examples of probability problems and their solutions. The first example calculates the probability that painter Pam will win first prize in an art competition based on the number of paintings each artist submitted and their historical first prize win rates. The second example calculates the probability that a person named Hunter has an allergy to cats based on the results of a cat allergy test and information about the accuracy of the test. The third example calculates the probability of rain at a picnic given that the morning is cloudy and statistics on cloudy mornings and the likelihood of rain in that month.

Uploaded by

Shimanto Kabir
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Example:

The Art Competition has entries from three painters: Pam, Pia and Pablo

Pam put in 15 paintings, 4% of her works have won First Prize.


Pia put in 5 paintings, 6% of her works have won First Prize.
Pablo put in 10 paintings, 3% of his works have won First Prize.

What is the chance that Pam will win First Prize?

Solution:

P(Pam)P(First|Pam)
P(Pam|First) =
P(Pam)P(First|Pam) + P(Pia)P(First|Pia) + P(Pablo)P(First|Pablo)

Put in the values:

(15/30) 4%
P(Pam|First) =
(15/30) 4% + (5/30) 6% + (10/30) 3%

Multiply all by 30 (makes calculation easier):

15 4% 0.6
P(Pam|First) = = = 50%
15 4% + 5 6% + 10 3% 0.6 + 0.3 + 0.3

Example: Allergy or Not?


Hunter says she is itchy. There is a test for Allergy to Cats, but this test is not always right:

For people that really do have the allergy, the test says "Yes" 80% of the time
For people that do not have the allergy, the test says "Yes" 10%of the time ("false positive")
If 1% of the population have the allergy, and Hunter's test says "Yes", what are
the chances that Hunter really has the allergy?

Solution:

We want to know the chance of having the allergy when test says "Yes",
written P(Allergy|Yes)

Let's get our formula:

P(Allergy) P(Yes|Allergy)
P(Allergy|Yes) =
P(Yes)

P(Allergy) is Probability of Allergy = 1%


P(Yes|Allergy) is Probability of test saying "Yes" for people with allergy =
80%
P(Yes) is Probability of test saying "Yes" (to anyone) = ??%

Oh no! We don't know what the general chance of the test saying "Yes" is ...

... but we can calculate it by adding up those with, and those without the
allergy:

1% have the allergy, and the test says "Yes" to 80% of them
99% do not have the allergy and the test says "Yes" to 10% of them

Let's add that up:

P(Yes) = 1% 80% + 99% 10% = 10.7%

Which means that about 10.7% of the population will get a "Yes" result.

So now we can complete our formula:

1% 80%
P(Allergy|Yes) = = 7.48%
10.7%
Example: Picnic Day
You are planning a picnic today, but the morning is cloudy

Oh no! 50% of all rainy days start off cloudy!


But cloudy mornings are common (about 40% of days start cloudy)
And this is usually a dry month (only 3 of 30 days tend to be rainy, or
10%)

What is the chance of rain during the day?

Solution:

We will use Rain to mean rain during the day, and Cloud to mean cloudy
morning.

The chance of Rain given Cloud is written P(Rain|Cloud)

So let's put that in the formula:

P(Rain) P(Cloud|Rain)
P(Rain|Cloud) =
P(Cloud)

P(Rain) is Probability of Rain = 10%


P(Cloud|Rain) is Probability of Cloud, given that Rain happens = 50%
P(Cloud) is Probability of Cloud = 40%

0.1 x 0.5
P(Rain|Cloud) = = .125
0.4

Question 1:

An urn B1 contains 2 white and 3 black balls and another urn B 2 contains 3 white and 4 black balls. One
urn is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is found black, find the probability
that the urn chosen was B1.
Question 2: The urns contain 6 green, 4 black; 4 green, 6 black and 5 green, 5 black balls respectively.
Randomly selected an urn and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is Green, find the probability that it
is drawn from the first urn.

Solution:
Question 3: A is known to tell the truth in 5 cases out of 6 and he states that a white ball was drawn from
a bag containing 8 blacks and 1 white ball. Find the probability that the white ball was drawn.
Solution:

Step 1:
Let W denote the event that A draws a white ball and T the event that A speaks truth. In the usual
notations, we are given that

For more example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcykJ_a4TiA

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