Presentation Outline

1. Problem Management Process

2. Defining the Problem
3. Formulating the Hypothesis
4. Identifying the Facts
5. Analysing the Facts
6. Developing the Solution
 Objectives
Provide an analytical thinking process
Understand problem solving life cycle
Manage Project Issues Identification to Resolution

Session Outcome
Understand the problem solving process
Define the issue of your project
Focus on the drivers behind your issue
Know techniques, such Root Cause & SWOT analysis
Know how to present possible solutions
 Presentation Outline

1. Problem Management Process

2. Defining the Problem
3. Formulating the Hypothesis
4. Identifying the Facts
5. Analysing the Facts
6. Developing the Solution
 Problem Management Process

Define Formulate Collect Conduct Develop

1 2 3 4 5

Problem Hypothesis Facts Analysis Solutions

 The Relationship among Problem,
Problem Solving, and Decision
Making
Problem
Exists whenever objectives are not being met.
What is happening vs. what is wanted to happen
Problem Solving
The process of taking corrective action to meet
objectives.
Decision Making
The process of selecting an alternative that will
solve a problem.
First decision is whether to take corrective action.
 Define the Problem
Distinguish Symptoms from the Cause of the Problem
List the observable and describable occurrences
(symptoms) that indicate a problem exists.
Determine the cause of the problem.
Removing the cause should cause the symptoms to
cease.
Symptom: Customer dissatisfaction
Cause: Poorly trained employees
Solution: Implement customer relations training
for employees
 Presentation Outline

1. Problem Management Process

2. Defining the Problem
3. Formulating the Hypothesis
4. Identifying the Facts
5. Analysing the Facts
6. Developing the Solution
 Problem Identification

Problem when a person observes a discrepancy between

the way things are & the way it ought to be
Problems can be identified through:
Comparative/benchmarking studies
Performance reporting of goals and objectives
SWOT Analysis
Complaints
Surveys
Etc.
 Getting to the "Root" of the
Problem

Sometimes the problem we think is not the real problem

Need to get at the real problem by probing
Root Cause Analysis is a method of probing
Definition of root cause:
Specific underlying cause
Those that can reasonably be identified
Those that management has control to fix
 Root Cause Analysis

Practice of asking, five times, why the problem exists in

order to get to the root cause of the problem

Employee
turnover
rate has Why? Why? Why? Why? Why?
been
increasing

Employees are Employees are Employees feel Other employers Demand for
leaving for other not satisfied that they are are paying such employees
jobs underpaid higher salaries has increased in
the market
 Basic Questions to Define the
Problem
Who What Where

Who is causing the problem? What will happen if not Where does this problem
solved? occur?
Who says this is a problem?
What are the symptoms? Where does it have an
Who are impacted?
What are the impacts? impact?
Who are not impacted?.
Etc. Etc.

When Why How

When does this problem Why is this problem How should this system
occur? occurring? work?
When did it first start Why? How is it currently handled?
occurring? Why? Etc.
Etc. Etc.
Root Cause Analysis Fishbone
Diagram
Fishbone Diagram (a.k.a. Cause and Effect Diagram) is an analysis
tool that provides a systematic way of looking at effects and the
causes that create or contribute to those effects.

Cause Cause
Detail Detail

Result (Problem)

Detail Detail
Cause Cause

The value of the Fishbone Diagram is that it provides a method for

categorizing the many potential causes of problems or issues in an
orderly way and in identifying root causes
FISH BONE ANALYSIS Case Study
 Other Root Cause Analysis
Techniques

Force Field Analysis Show forces that impact your

problem/issue
Scatter Diagrams Show how one variable influences
another
Process Mapping Maps the as is flow of activities
Benchmarking Compares performance to another
similar source
 Problem Management Methodology

1 2 3 4 5

Problem Hypothesis Facts Analysis Solutions

Define Formulate Collect Conduct Develop

What need to be corrected Start with end in mind Meaningful information Break down the problem Outcome from hypothesis testing
Address right problem Potential explanation Qualitative or Quantitative Apply analytical Technique Solution final recommendation
Identified by clients Can be tested Relevant data for proving Analyse to prove or What the client wants
Specification misleading Proved or disproved Where to look for disprove Addresses the problem
Defining is discovery Possible root causes How to filter Understand issues & drivers Solution is implementable
based Break down root causes Verifying what happened Most time spent Run an actual example
Defining improve focus Help to build roadmap Applying to solve Confirm or deny hypothesis Viability of recommended solution
Drives analytical thinking Many analytical techniques
 Presentation Outline

1. Problem Management Process

2. Defining the Problem
3. Formulating the Hypothesis
4. Identifying the Facts
5. Analysing the Facts
6. Developing the Solution
Issue Diagram is an effective method for
breaking down problems and
formulating hypotheses
Hypothesis #1A

Key Questions #1C-a

Hypothesis #1B
Issue #1 Key Questions #1C-b
Hypothesis #1C
Key Questions #1C-c

Hypothesis #1D
Key Questions #1C-d
Problem Issue #2

Issue #3
Key Components of Issue Diagram

Questions which need to be

Issues answered or topics which need to
be explored in order to solve a
problem

Speculative answers for issues that

Hypotheses are phrased as questions and/or
areas of exploration for issue
phrased as topics

Questions that probe hypotheses

Key Questions and drive the primary research
required to solve the problem
 Identifying the Issues
What key topics
should we explore to
help the client solve
Client wants to this problem?
decide whether
they should divest
their widget X Is there a market for
manufacturing Issue #1 divesting this business?
business

Is this a cost effective

Problem Issue #2
solution for the client?

What impacts will there

Issue #3 be for the displaced
employees?
 Key to Identifying Issues

1. Develop a comprehensive list of all possible issues

related to the problem
2. Reduce the list by eliminating duplicates and
combining overlapping issues
3. Using consensus building, get down to a major issues
list (usually two to five issues)
 Formulating the Hypotheses
Hypothesis #1A The market is large.
Market Interest?

Issue #1 Hypothesis #1B

Etc.

Divest Widget Cost

Effectiveness? Hypothesis #2A
X Business? What are some
possible answers to
Problem Issue #2 Hypothesis #2B
the issues?
Etc.

Impacts on
Hypothesis #3A Large percentage of
Employees?
employees will likely retire
Issue #3 Hypothesis #3B in two years.

Etc.
 Framing the Key Questions
How many
Key Question #1A-a players are there
The market is large. in the market?
Market Interest?
Hypothesis #1A Key Question #1A-b
Issue #1 How many are
Hypothesis #1B Key Question #1A-c large enough to
take on the
client's business?
Divest Widget X
Business? Cost
Effectiveness? Hypothesis #2A
What questions need to be
Problem Issue #2
answered to prove/disprove
Hypothesis #2B the hypothesis?

Large percentage of
employees will likely Key Question #3A-a
Impacts on retire in two years.
Employees?
How many
Hypothesis #3A Key Question #3A-b employees are 50
Issue #3 years old or older
and interested in
Hypothesis #3B Key Question #3A-c retiring?
Common Pitfalls in Creating Issue
Diagram
Issues which are:
Too broad, which expand beyond the objectives
Too narrow
Issues Too many to be easily remembered
Of uneven weight
Not sequenced effectively

Hypotheses which are:

Too few to cover the issue
Too many to be easily remembered
Hypotheses Not supportable by data
Not directly relevant to the issue

Key questions which are:

Too few to test the hypotheses
Key Questions Too many to be easily remembered
Irrelevant to the hypotheses
Not answerable with data
 Key Messages

Issue diagrams provide a framework for brainstorming

and documenting the issues
Hypotheses and the key questions will help shape
relevant data collection
Formulation of hypotheses and key questions is an
evolving process
 Brainstorming A Method for
Identifying Issues and Formulating
Hypotheses

Brainstorm when wide range of issues and solutions

Brainstorming is used to generate ideas
There are numerous brainstorming techniques
Individual brainstorming is usually not recommended
Brainstorming useful for Force Field Analysis
 Tips for Brainstorming

1. State the purpose and objective of the brainstorming session

2. Set ground rules for participants

3. Give everyone an opportunity to participate

4. Solicit all ideas and opinions nothing is rejected

5. After exhausting all ideas, eliminate irrelevant & duplicate

6. Finalize outcome of the brainstorming through consensus

 Problem Management
Methodology

1 2 3 4 5

Problem Hypothesis Facts Analysis Solutions

Define Formulate Collect Conduct Develop

What need to be corrected Start with end in mind Meaningful information Break down the problem Outcome from hypothesis testing
Address right problem Potential explanation Qualitative or Quantitative Apply analytical Technique Solution final recommendation
Identified by clients Can be tested Relevant data for proving Analyse to prove or What the client wants
Specification misleading Proved or disproved Where to look for disprove Addresses the problem
Defining is discovery Possible root causes How to filter Understand issues & drivers Solution is implementable
based Break down root causes Verifying what happened Most time spent Run an actual example
Defining improve focus Help to build roadmap Applying to solve Confirm or deny hypothesis Viability of recommended solution
Drives analytical thinking Many analytical techniques
 Presentation Outline

1. Problem Management Process

2. Defining the Problem
3. Formulating the Hypothesis
4. Identifying the Facts
5. Analysing the Facts
6. Developing the Solution
 Getting to the Facts
Validate the hypotheses require the collection of factual
information
Identify what information, i.e. data elements, is required
Develop a data collection approach/technique
Depending on the problem different collection
techniques may be used
Combine different techniques to allow different
perspectives
Data collection is a critical stage in problem solving
 Using the Issue Diagram to identify
data needs
Number of
companies in
How many are the industry
Key Question #1A-a large enough to Revenues for
take on the the last 5 years
client's Etc.
Issue #1
Hypothesis #1A Key Question #1A-b business?
Hypothesis #1B

What information or
Problem Issue #2
Hypothesis #2A Key Question #1A-c data needs to be collected
Hypothesis #2B to answer these
questions?
Key Question #3A-a
Hypothesis #3A Ages of the
Issue #3
Hypothesis #3B How many employees
Key Question #3A-b employees are 50 Employee
years old or interest level
older and Etc.
Key Question #3A-c interested in
retiring?
 Data Collection Techniques
Technique Description Tools
Using Available Using data that has already Checklist
Information been collected by others Data compilation forms

Systematically selecting,
watching and recording Eyes and ears
Observing behavior and characteristics of Data compilation forms
people, objects or events

Oral questioning of Interview guide

Interviewing respondents, either individually Data compilation forms
or as a group
Administering Collecting data based on
Survey
Written answers provided by
Questionnaire
Questionnaires respondents in written form

Facilitating free discussions on

Conducting Focus Flip charts
specific topics with selected
Groups group of participants
 Importance of Combining
Collection Techniques
Qualitative Techniques VS. Quantitative Techniques
(Flexible) (Less Flexible)

Produce qualitative data Structured question to quantify

recorded in narrative form answers
Useful in answering the "why", Useful in answering the "how many",
"what", and "how" questions "how often", "how significant"
Typically includes: Answers expressed numerically
Loosely structured
interviews
Focus group discussions
Observations
A combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques
will give a comprehensive understanding of the problem
 Presentation Outline

1. Problem Management Process

2. Defining the Problem
3. Formulating the Hypothesis
4. Identifying the Facts
5. Analysing the Facts
6. Developing the Solution
 Conducting the Analysis
To "make sense" of the information collected
Use analytical techniques to help understanding as
follows:
What are the most important issues? Pareto Analysis 20:80
Rule

What performance areas are weak? Benchmarking

What are the core competencies of the client? SWOT

What forces can influence the problem? Force Field Analysis

Sequential Steps to the Analysis

Make sure you know what you are trying to solve

Clearly defined issues or questions drive the
analysis!

Match up the clearly defined question or issue with

the appropriate analytical tool(s)

Once youve matched up the analytical tools

against the question or issue, then do the analysis
 Apply analytical tools and move
back upstream
1. Start with clearly defined issues or
questions
How many are
large enough to 2. Select the Analytical Tool
take on the client's # of companies in
business? industry
Key Question
#1A-a

Hypothesis #1A
Key Question Revenues for last 5
Issue #1
#1A-b
Key Question years Benchmarking
Hypothesis #1B
#1A-c

Hypothesis #2A What analysis needs

Problem Issue #2
Hypothesis #2B to be done to answer
this question?
Hypothesis #3A Key Question
#3A-a
Issue #3
Hypothesis #3B
Key Question Age of employees 3. Collect required
#3A-b
Key Question
#3A-c information per the
How many Employee interest
level in retiring
Analytical Tool selected
employees are 50
years old or older
and interested in
retiring? 4. Once you complete your analysis, move back
upstream to answer the key question you started
with
 Analytical Techniques

Benchmarking Compare against an internal or

external source
SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities &
Threats
Force Field Analysis Overall how it impacts the
subject
Cost Benefit Analysis Compare costs vs. Benefits
Impact Analysis What is the impact of change
 Benchmarking

Compares your performance against competition

Differences indicate possible performance issues

May be difficult to collect comparable measurement data

Comparing best in class performance

 SWOT Strengths Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats

Identifies what we are good, not good, might do, and

not do?
A common analytical tool for strategic planning
Subjective
Easy to understand and follow
Useful to identify the core competencies
 SWOT Example
Internal Assessment of the organization
Strengths Weaknesses
Client has a global infrastructure Client has limited resources for
to service all types of customers expanding its global reach
Services are in high demand in most Key processes are not very cost
parts of the world competitive when compared to other
service providers

External Assessment of direct and indirect forces

Opportunities Threats
Untapped demand exists in half of Other are investing in newer
the World technologies
Some are entering into strategic
New Technologies make it possible partnerships to expand their global
to expand service reach footprint
 Force Field

Visually shows significant forces that impact the

problem
Forces tend to be those factors that promote or hinder a
solution
Normally from brainstorming session to list all forces
 Force Field Example

Problem: Agency is not strategically focused

Positive Forces Negative Forces

Agency promoting the Balanced Agency lack enforcement teeth.

Scorecard Agency not resourced to develop
Agency has mandates strategic plans
Agencies have BSC in place Agency has too many change going
Strategic planning is growing in on
importance

Direct More Important Indirect Less Important

 Impact Analysis

Identifies diverse effects associated with a

problem/proposed solution
How will this impact us?
What are the consequences of not acting on the problem?
Aim to minimize adverse or negative impacts going
forward
Helps in assessing risk of different solutionsn
Numerous tools can be used to assess impacts
 Impact Analysis Tools
Scenario Playing Do Nothing vs. Solution
Cost Benefit Analysis - Used to quantify impacts
Decision Tree assign probabilities to alternative for
likely solution
Simulation Model & Assess impact when variables
change
Prototype Model Build and test the solution for
lessons learned
 Pareto Analysis

Quantifies what is most important on a graph 80 / 20

Rule
Puts focus on the significant problems or issues
Group issues based on measurable attribute (errors,
downtime, etc.)
Categorize issues by type (causes, products, etc.)
Plot the data and rank according to frequency
Downtime, Errors Pareto Chart

Categories
Causes, Products
 The Kepner-Tregoe Method

1. Assess each alternative with regard to the must

criteria.
2. Rate the importance of each want criterion on a scale
(E.g. 1 to 10).
3. Determine how well each alternative meets the want
criterion.
4. Compute the weighted score (WS) for each alternative
on each criterion.
5. Select the alternative with the highest total weighted
score.
The Kepner-Tregoe Method for
Analyzing Alternatives

Exhibit 49
 Cost Benefit Analysis
Identify all expected costs and benefits to make the
decision
Costs includes all tangible outlays and intangible factors
with value
Compare using a set of financial analysis tools
Continuum of Analysis Techniques:
 Problem Management
Methodology
1 2 3 4 5

Problem Hypothesis Facts Analysis Solutions

Define Formulate Collect Conduct Develop

What need to be corrected Start with end in mind Meaningful information Break down the problem Outcome from hypothesis testing
Address right problem Potential explanation Qualitative or Quantitative Apply analytical Technique Solution final recommendation
Identified by clients Can be tested Relevant data for proving Analyse to prove or What the client wants
Specification misleading Proved or disproved Where to look for disprove Addresses the problem
Defining is discovery Possible root causes How to filter Understand issues & drivers Solution is implementable
based Break down root causes Verifying what happened Most time spent Run an actual example
Defining improve focus Help to build roadmap Applying to solve Confirm or deny hypothesis Viability of recommended solution
Drives analytical thinking Many analytical techniques
 Presentation Outline

1. Problem Management Process

2. Defining the Problem
3. Formulating the Hypothesis
4. Identifying the Facts
5. Analysing the Facts
6. Developing the Solution
 Decision-Making Conditions
Certainty
Each alternatives outcome is known in advance.
Risk
Probabilities can be assigned to each outcome.
Uncertainty
Lack of knowledge on the outcome makes it unpredictable
 Basic Concepts

Plan the solution that has the greatest impact on solving

the problem

Use matrix to weigh solutions (success probability,

implementation ease)

Solutions must be supported by the analysis

Test your solutions as much as you can

Clearly communicate the outcome

 Presenting the Solution
Situation Appraisal
Clarify situation, outline concerns & choose a direction

Problem Analysis
Problem defined & root cause determined

Decision analysis
Alternatives identified & risk analysed

Potential Problem Analysis

Best alternative assessed for potential problems & negative
consequences
Actions are proposed to minimize the risk
 Presenting the Solution
Situation Appraisal : Client concerned with current
profitability of widget X business and like to divest the
product line.

Problem Analysis : Clients widget X business is small

and not cost competitive in the market.

Decision analysis : Maintain the current losing

business or dispose and retrain non-retiring staff.

Potential Problem Analysis: Not able to get good price

or too many staff not keen to retire.
 Problem Management
Methodology
1 2 3 4 5

Problem Hypothesis Facts Analysis Solutions

Define Formulate Collect Conduct Develop

What need to be corrected Start with end in mind Meaningful information Break down the problem Outcome from hypothesis testing
Address right problem Potential explanation Qualitative or Quantitative Apply analytical Technique Solution final recommendation
Identified by clients Can be tested Relevant data for proving Analyse to prove or What the client wants
Specification misleading Proved or disproved Where to look for disprove Addresses the problem
Defining is discovery Possible root causes How to filter Understand issues & drivers Solution is implementable
based Break down root causes Verifying what happened Most time spent Run an actual example
Defining improve focus Help to build roadmap Applying to solve Confirm or deny hypothesis Viability of recommended solution
Drives analytical thinking Many analytical techniques
 Key Messages
Dont rush out and collect information until analytical tools to be used

Use a combination of tools to cover all the bases

Decisions involve some assumptions you will not have all the facts

Analysis is a discover driven process incremental step as you learn

Adjust as you iterate until you have insights; on the problem

100% out-of-the box solutions dont exist

No solution is a guarantee willing to revisit your requirements

Solutions rarely work unless you get buy-in and commitment

Back up your solution with a implementation plan & measure outcome

 Summary

Analytical Thinking is a Scientific Approach

Five Step Process for Consultants:

- Define the Problem

- Test in the form of Hypothesis

- Focus on Facts

- Analysis (Various Analytical Tools)

- Recommend a Solution
Planning Key to Success

Time

Form

Plan and Win

Question???