Election Prediction Sheet
Due: Wednesday, November 2, 2016 / Thursday, November 3, 2016
State Presidential Election Prediction
Candidate (Party) Hillary Clinton (Dem) Donald Trump (Rep) Gary Johnson (Lib)
Popular Vote Count 2673427 2557191 464944
Pop. Vote % 46% 44% 8%
Congressional Election Predictions
Incumbents are listed first
State, District Ohio, District 1
Candidate (Party) Steve Chabot (R) Michele Young (D)
Popular Vote % 68% 32%
Popular Vote Count 247319 116386
State, District Ohio, District 2
Candidate (Party) Brad Wenstrup (R) William Smith (D)
Popular Vote % 62% 38%
Popular Vote Count 213669 130959
State, District Ohio, District 3
Candidate (Party) Joyce Beatty (D) John Adams (R)
Popular Vote % 61% 39%
Popular Vote Count 187559 119914
State, District Ohio, District 4
Candidate (Party) Jim Jordan (R) Janet Garrett (D)
Popular Vote % 69% 31%
Popular Vote Count 224607 100911
State, District Ohio, District 5
Candidate (Party) Bob Latta (R) James Neu, Jr. (D)
Popular Vote % 63% 37%
Popular Vote Count 230550 135403
Directions
Respond to the Election Prediction prompts in cohesive paragraphs.
Include an Introduction to the assignment, your predictions and your strategy for approaching the
predictions
Include a Conclusion that looks at the implications of this prediction for future elections
All claims should be supported by data or analysis from credible sources.
Make sure to provide proper in-text citations for the demographic data and quotations you use.
You may combine districts or use one district as exemplifying traits of another, but be sure to discuss
similarities and difference between them,.
Prompts
1. Explain how demographic factors (2) in your districts will influence voting in the presidential election.
Explain how these same factors will influence voting in the congressional elections.
2. Describe how two key issues will influence presidential voting in your districts. Explain how the
candidates stances on these key issues will affect the outcomes of the congressional races. This may also
be a section in which you discuss the role of the media in these issues.
3. Describe how voter turnout in your state has changed over time for two different demographic groups.
Explain how the turnout rates of these groups have impacted election results in the past. How do you
expect voter turnout rates of these groups will influence elections in your state this year?
4. Explain how the presidential election will affect the congressional elections in your state. Describe the
most significant demographic difference between the 2 districts you chose. Explain how this difference
will influence voting patterns.
Crystal Ball Final Essay
As the race to the White House dwindles down, Ohio remains a key state in the election on an
electoral and historical standpoint. The Buckeye State holds 18 electoral votes, which is around 7% of
the necessary 270 votes to win the election. Ohio has also correctly cast votes for the winning candidate
93% of the time- and no Republican candidate has ever won the presidency without securing Ohio . For
this election, I predicted that Hillary Clinton would edge Donald Trump, meaning, based off of history,
a loss for the controversial candidate. With the state prediction, I used three general demographics:
gender, ethnicity, and education level. Predicting the percentages Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and
Gary Johnson would win in each demographic, I increased the voting percentage from the 2012
presidential election and the percentage of the certain demographic, and calculated the weighted
average of all 3 candidates on Microsoft Excel. For my congressional races, I looked at the previous
election results, examined recent polls/ news articles about the candidates, weighed the effect of district
issues, and determined whether or not the candidate was an incumbent as they are often re elected at
least twice before losing his/her seat. For both predictions, I heavily relied on demographic data and
past election results to determine the winner, and also increased the voter turnout percentage by 4 since
the 2012 elections.
Demographic factors in my district, such as race/ethnicity and gender will not greatly influence
this years presidential election. All of my districts except District 3 are primarily white, which
indicates that there is gerrymandering. White citizens are more likely to support Trump than Clinton,
meaning that Trumps chances of winning Ohio are increased significantly (Voters 2016 General
Election Preferences). However, the number of hispanics voting in this years election will surely
increase from four years ago, due to Trumps comments on Mexican immigration. I added this into my
statewide prediction, with an nine percent increase in participation from 2012. At first, one might
believe that the African American community would also have a dramatic increase in voting
participation, helping Clinton in must-win states, but that has not been the case. According to former
Virginia governor L. Douglas Wilder, the Democratic candidate has not done enough to appeal to
African Americans, and especially millennials. The increase of hispanic voters will not ultimately help
Clinton overcome Trumps overwhelming caucasian support, as 83% of the Ohio population is white,
compared to the 3% hispanics. All of my districts are split evenly between male and female, but I
believe that women have a greater incentive to vote this election. Throughout out her debates, Clinton
focused on the gender gap, while Trump had his Hollywood tape scandal. This, however, has not hurt
Trump in the Ohio polls; miraculously, Trump has surged this past week and has around a two point
advantage over Clinton (Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein). I believe that these
demographic factors also will not greatly affect any of the congressional elections, as the districts are
heavily gerrymandered. Four out of the five districts were more than 70% white, which, generally
speaking, helps the Republicans. I did not fully take into account the minorities or women voters for
the congressional elections, because all of the incumbents were up for re election, and previous
elections show that the incumbent usually wins by over 15%.
Two key issues in my districts that would influence presidential voting in my districts are
regulations due to global warming, and creating American jobs at home. All districts except DIstrict 3
will be affected by global warming regulations, as many have jobs in construction, agriculture,
manufacturing, and transportation. I believe that the voters who would be negatively impacted by
climate control regulations would vote for Trump, as he (and the Republican Party) does not believe
humans are primarily responsible for climate change (Compare 2016 Presidential Candidate
Positions). Voters who are in favor of stricter climate control laws would favor Clinton, as she
advocates for renewable energy research, and is against the Keystone XL Pipeline (Compare 2016
Presidential Candidate Positions). While both candidates say that they will create millions of new
jobs, they disagree on the process. Clinton argues for less taxes, and is in favor of investing in clean
energy for the future (Valet). Trump meanwhile, would negotiate fairer trade laws and repeal the
Climate Action Plan (Valet). The candidates stances on these issues will somewhat have an affect on
the congressional races, as the some voters who lean Republican may not agree with Trumps ideals,
which may cause them to either ticket-split, or not vote Republican at all. The media also plays a
crucial role in the election, as the type of coverage the media outlets focus on can determine the how an
undecided voter votes. Endorsements of candidates by the paper may cause undecided voters to lean
one way or the other. For example, the Cincinnati Enquirer endorsed a Democratic candidate for the
first time, which might cause the undecided voters or mainstream Republicans to vote for Clinton. to
There is a glaring example of horserace journalism in the Cincinnati Enquirer (a main source for the
people of Ohio), and the recent articles show that Hillary Clinton is gaining a lead in Ohio. This, I
believe, will influence many undecided voters who do not know much about the two candidates
policies, as they will hop onto the bandwagon. There is also an element of agenda setting in the
Cincinnati Enquirer, as the issues that many in Ohio might care about (increase in taxes for the
wealthy, creating new American jobs, and regulation due to global warming) are not mentioned in the
editorial section of the newspaper. Instead, the section is mostly plagued with the coverage of this
years election, which is important- however, the problem is that the media in general decided to focus
more on personal issues and statements rather than the two candidates policies. This will not help a
voter who wants the best for their country, and cares about the implications once the candidate takes
office.
Historically, the older generation tends to vote more than the younger generation, as the former
have stronger ties with their political party, and have an obligation to help their candidate win. The
older generation also tend to stray conservative, which would help Trump, as 42% of the Ohio
population is older than 45. On the other hand, younger voters tend to lean liberal, which helps Clinton
and Johnson (Voters 2016 General Election Preferences). This could cause Clinton to lose the
millennial vote, which gives momentum to Trump, especially after this weeks release of Clintons
private emails. Also, higher educated voters are more likely to vote Democrat than the less educated
voters, which doesnt really help Clinton in Ohio as only 35% of the population have college degrees
(Davis). According to the Pew Research Center in 2012, "Lower-income and less educated whites also
have shifted substantially toward the Republican Party since 2008." This will definitely help Trump as
65% of the Ohio population does not have a college degree.
The month leading up to the election, with all of its twists, turns, and twirls, has made it
impossible to predict the winner. The strategy I used to make an informed guess was by using three
general demographics: gender, ethnicity, and education level. I predicted the percentages Hillary
Clinton, Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson would win in each demographic, increased the voting
percentage from the 2012 presidential election and the percentage of the certain demographic, and
calculated the weighted average of all 3 candidates percentages on Microsoft Excel. For my
congressional races, I looked at the previous election results, checked recent polls/ news articles about
the candidates, examined the effect of district issues, and determined whether or not the candidate was
an incumbent as they are often re elected at least twice before losing his/her seat. For both predictions, I
heavily relied on demographic data and past election results to determine the winner, and also increased
the voter turnout percentage by 4 since the 2012 elections. However, I did not take into consideration
the other demographics that could affect the election (age, household income, rural/urban, etc). I also
didnt emphasize the points lost by Clinton over the past couple of days due to her private email
scandal, as I believed that Trump tape didnt negatively affect his candidacy.
Works Cited
"Compare 2016 Presidential Candidate Positions." ProCon, 28 Sept. 2016,
2016election.procon.org/view.source-summary-chart.php. Accessed 1 Nov.
2016.
Davis, Janel. "Is Education Level Tied to Voting Tendencies?" PolitiFact, Tampa
Bay Times, 5 Nov. 2012, www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2012/nov/05/
larry-sabato/education-level-tied-voting-tendencies/. Accessed 1 Nov. 2016.
Hohmann, James. "The Daily 202: Hillary Clinton is taking the black vote for
granted, says Americas first elected black governor." Washington Post, 22
Sept. 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/09/
22/daily-202-hillary-clinton-is-taking-the-black-vote-for-granted-says-america-s-fir
st-elected-black-governor/57e30625e9b69b3019a1e031/. Accessed 1 Nov. 2016.
"Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein." RealClearPolitics,
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_
johnson_vs_stein-5970.html. Accessed 1 Nov. 2016.
Valet, Vicki. "Hillary Clinton Vs. Donald Trump: Where the Candidates Stand on
Employment and Jobs." Forbes, 25 Sept. 2016, www.forbes.com/sites/
vickyvalet/2016/09/25/Hillary-clinton-vs-donald-trump-where-the-
candidates-stand-on-employment-and-jobs/#847ea963fab4. Accessed 1 Nov. 2016.
