Deterministic and Probabilistic models

and thinking

The way we understand and make sense of variation in the world affects decisions we make.

Part of understanding variation is understanding the difference between deterministic and

probabilistic (stochastic) models. The NZ curriculum specifies the following learning outcome:
Selects and uses appropriate methods to investigate probability situations including
experiments, simulations, and theoretical probability, distinguishing between deterministic
and probabilistic models. This is at level 8 of the curriculum, the highest level of secondary
schooling. Deterministic and probabilistic models are not familiar to all teachers of mathematics
and statistics, so Im writing about it today.

Model
The term, model, is itself challenging. There are many ways to use the word, two of which are
particularly relevant for this discussion. The first meaning is mathematical model, as a decision-
making tool. This is the one I am familiar with from years of teaching Operations Research. The
second way is way of thinking or representing an idea. Or something like that. It seems to
come from psychology.

When teaching mathematical models in entry level operations research/management science we

would spend some time clarifying what we mean by a model. I have written about this in the
post, All models are wrong.

In a simple, concrete incarnation, a model is a representation of another object. A simple

example is that of a model car or a Lego model of a house. There are aspects of the model that
are the same as the original, such as the shape and ability to move or not. But many aspects of
the real-life object are missing in the model. The car does not have an internal combustion
engine, and the house has no soft-furnishings. (And very bumpy floors). There is little purpose
for either of these models, except entertainment and the joy of creation or ownership. (You might
be interested in the following video of the Lego Parisian restaurant, which I am coveting. Funny
way to say Parisian!)

Many models perform useful functions. My husband works as a land-surveyor, and his work
involves making models on paper or in the computer, of phenomenon on the land, and making
sure that specified marks on the model correspond to the marks placed in the ground. The
purpose of the model relates to ownership and making sure the sewers run in the right direction.
(As a result of several years of earthquakes in Christchurch, his models are less deterministic
than they used to be, and unfortunately many of our sewers ended up running the wrong way.)
Our world is full of models:

a map is a model of a location, which can help us get from place to place.
sheet music is a written model of the sound which can make a song
a bus timetable is a model of where buses should appear
a companys financial reports are a model of one aspect of the company

Deterministic models
A deterministic model assumes certainty in all aspects. Examples of deterministic models are
timetables, pricing structures, a linear programming model, the economic order quantity model,
maps, accounting.

Probabilistic or stochastic models

Most models really should be stochastic or probabilistic rather than deterministic, but this is
often too complicated to implement. Representing uncertainty is fraught. Some more common
stochastic models are queueing models, markov chains, and most simulations.

For example when planning a school formal, there are some elements of the model that are
deterministic and some that are probabilistic. The cost to hire the venue is deterministic, but the
number of students who will come is probabilistic. A GPS unit uses a deterministic model to
decide on the most suitable route and gives a predicted arrival time. However we know that the
actual arrival time is contingent upon all sorts of aspects including road, driver, traffic and
weather conditions.

Model as a way of thinking about something

The term model is also used to describe the way that people make sense out of their world.
Some people have a more deterministic world model than others, contributed to by age, culture,
religion, life experience and education. People ascribe meaning to anything from star patterns,
tea leaves and moon phases to ease in finding a parking spot and not being in a certain place
when a coconut falls. This is a way of turning a probabilistic world into a more deterministic and
more meaningful world. Some people are happy with a probabilistic world, where things really
do have a high degree of randomness. But often we are less happy when the randomness goes
against us. (I find it interesting that farmers hit with bad fortune such as a snowfall or drought are
happy to ask for government help, yet when there is a bumper crop, I dont see them offering to
give back some of their windfall voluntarily.)

Let us say the All Blacks win a rugby game against Australia. There are several ways we can
draw meaning from this. If we are of a deterministic frame of mind, we might say that the All
Blacks won because they are the best rugby team in the world. We have assigned cause and
effect to the outcome. Or we could take a more probabilistic view of it, deciding that the
probability that they would win was about 70%, and that on the day they were fortunate. Or, if
we were Australian, we might say that the Australian team was far better and it was just a 1 in
100 chance that the All Blacks would win.

I developed the following scenarios for discussion in a classroom. The students can put them in
order or categories according to their own criteria. After discussing their results, we could then
talk about a deterministic and a probabilistic meaning for each of the scenarios.

1. The All Blacks won the Rugby World Cup.

2. Eri did better on a test after getting tuition.
3. Holly was diagnosed with cancer, had a religious experience and the cancer was gone.
4. A pet was given a homeopathic remedy and got better.
5. Bill won $20 million in Lotto.
6. You got five out of five right in a true/false quiz.

The regular mathematics teacher is now a long way from his or her comfort zone. The numbers
have gone, along with the red tick, and there are no correct answers. This is an important aspect
of understanding probability that many things are the result of randomness. But with this idea
we are pulling mathematics teachers into unfamiliar territory. Social studies, science and English
teachers have had to deal with the murky area of feelings, values and ethics forever. In terms of
preparing students for a random world, I think it is territory worth spending some time in. And it
might just help them find mathematics/statistics relevant!

Regression
In a cause and effect relationship, the independent variable is the cause, and the dependent
variable is the effect. Least squares linear regression is a method for predicting the value of a
dependent variable Y, based on the value of an independent variable X.

Linear regression finds the straight line, called the least squares regression line or LSRL, that
best represents observations in a bivariate data set. Suppose Y is a dependent variable, and X is
an independent variable. Then, the equation for the regression line would be:

= b0 + b 1 x

where b0 is a constant, b1 is the regression coefficient, x is the value of the independent variable,
and is the predicted value of the dependent variable.

Normally, you will use a computational tool - a software package (e.g., Excel) or a graphing
calculator - to find b0 and b1. You enter the X and Y values into your program or calculator, and
the tool solves for each parameter.

In the unlikely event that you find yourself on a desert island without a computer or a graphing
calculator, you can solve for b0 and b1 "by hand". Here are the equations.
 b1 = [ (xi - x)(yi - y) ] / [ (xi - x)2]

and

b0 = y - b1 * x

where b0 is the constant in the regression equation, b1 is the regression coefficient, xi is the X
value of observation i, yi is the Y value of observation i, and x and y are the means of X and Y,
respectively.

Construct a Scatter plot: Overview

A scatter plot gives you a visual idea of what is happening with your data. Scatter plots are similar to line
graphs. The only difference is a line graph has a continuous line while a scatter plot has a series of dots.
Scatter plots in statistics create the foundation for simple linear regression, where we take scatter plots
and try to create a usable model using functions. In fact, all regression is doing is trying to draw a line
through all of those dots!

construct a scatter plot

Scatter plot. Photo credit: Skbkekas|Wikimedia Commons.

Watch the video or read on below:

If you want to construct a scatter plot by hand, read on for the steps. However, if you have access to
some kind of technology (like Excel), its much easier! Follow a link to make a:

SPSS Scatter plot

Scatter plot in Minitab

TI 89 Scatterplot

Scatter plot in Microsoft Excel

TI 83 Scatter plot
There are just three steps to creating a scatter plot by hand.

Construct a Scatter plot: Steps

Sample question: create a scatter plot for the following data:

x y

3 25

4.1 25

5 30

6 29

6.1 42

6.3 46

Step 1: Draw a graph. Label the x- and y- axis. Choose a range that includes the maximums and
minimums from the given data. For example, our x-values go from 3 to 6.3, so a range from 3 to 7 would
be appropriate.

scatter plot 1
Step 2: Draw the first point on the graph. Our first point is (3,25).

Step 3:. Draw the remaining points on the graph.