UNIT 4: RETURN OF THE LECTURES

PROBABILITY IS HERE

MATHS METHODS
FT. BRACKETS
& BRACKETS
& BRACKETS
NO
SPAGHETTI
HERE
 LECTURE OUTLINE
Integration

Discrete Probability

Binomial Distributions

Normal Distributions

Continuous Probability

Statistics
 LEARNING OUTCOMES

Antidifferentiation and Integration

Computations

Discrete Probability
Probability properties
Sample spaces
Conditional probability, independence and mutual
exclusiveness
Discrete random variables
Expectancy and Variance
 INTEGRATION

Integral, heh, to our learning of continuous probability.

Is the opposite function to the derivative

= +

Dont forget and dont forget +

 BASIC RULES
RULE EXAMPLE
1
= +1 + 2 = 2 +
+1

1 +1 2
1 3
+ = + + 2 + 3 = 2 + 3 +
+1 6

1
= + 2 2 = 2 +

1 3
= log + = 3 log +

1
sin = cos + 2 sin = 2 cos +

1 1
cos = sin + cos 3 = sin 3 +
3
 INTEGRATION

Integrating between two bounds is called integration

We apply the fundamental theorem of calculus

= ()

Where () is an antiderivative of ()

We can drop the + but not the

 INTEGRATION EXAMPLE

2
sin 4 + 4 3
0

1 2
= cos 4 + 4
4 0
1 4 4 1
= cos + cos 0 + 0 4
4 2 2 4
1 4 1
= + +
4 16 4
4
=
16
 PROBABILITY

Probability is the extent to which an event is likely to occur

Is measured bye the ratio of favourable outcomes to total

outcomes

number of
Pr =
total

We measure probability in decimals such that

0 Pr() 1
 SAMPLE SPACE

A sample space is a list of the total possible outcomes

Consider two fair six sided dice, the sample space is as

follows:

1,1 , 1,2 , 1,3 6,6

Consider a trio of fair coins being tossed, the sample space

is as follows:

, , , , , , , , , , ,
 PROBABILITY PROPERTIES

We represent common entities between sample spaces as

intersections

Pr

We represent all of the entities between sample spaces as

the union

Pr = Pr + Pr Pr( )
 VENN DIAGRAMS

Pr(
)
 KARNAUGH MAPS
Pr = 1 Pr

Read as: A complement, meaning all but

Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr()

Pr( ) Pr( ) Pr( )

Pr() Pr( ) 1
 KARNAUGH MAPS
In a sample space:

Pr = 0.1 and Pr = 0.2 and Pr A = 0.1

0.1 0.1 0.2

0 0.8 0.8

0.1 0.9 1
 TREE DIAGRAMS

Tree diagrams are useful for multi-step probability

problems, that is, problems that require multiple stages,
such as flipping a coin and then flipping another one.

Pr = 0.5 0.3 = 0.15

0.3

0.5
0.7
Pr = 0.5 0.7 = 0.35

0.5

 PROBABILITY PROPERTIES

The probability of an event occurring, given that a certain

event has already happened is called conditional

Pr( )
Pr =
Pr()

If two events are mutually exclusive, then they have no

intersection, thus their union is their added probabilities

Pr = Pr + Pr()
 PROBABILITY PROPERTIES

If two events are independent, that is one event occurring

has no impact on the other, they have the following
properties

Pr = Pr()

Pr = Pr Pr()

Mutual exclusivity should not be confused with

independence, they have different properties and one
existing does not necessarily mean the other does as well
 DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES

A discrete random variable has the following properties:

It can only take countable values

The probabilities add to one

Which of the following are discrete variables?

Money Gender Postcodes

Months in progress Number of houses Height

 DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES

Heres what a discrete random variable can look like:

1 2 2.5 3
Pr( = ) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

From this we can deduce that:

0 Pr( = ) 1

Pr = = 1
 DETERMINING PROBABILITIES
1 2 2.5 3
Pr( = ) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

The probability of an event occurring can be established

straight from the table

Pr = 2.5 = 0.3

The probability that spans more than one discrete value can
be established through addition

Pr > 2 = Pr = 2.5 + Pr = 3 = 0.7

 EXAMPLE
For the following discrete random variable, find all possible
values of and calculate Pr( 2) .
1 2 2.5 3
Pr( = ) 0.2 3 0.4

The sum of the probabilities must equal one

+ 2 + 0.2 + 0.4 = 1
= 0.1

Determine the probability by adding the required values

Pr 2 = Pr = 2 + Pr = 2.5 + Pr( = 3)
= 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.4 = 0.9
 EXPECTED VALUE (MEAN)
Measures the centre of the distribution

E = = Pr( = )

Is calculated by summing the multiples of the random

variables and their respective probabilities

1 2 2.5 3
Pr( = ) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

E = 1 0.1 + 2 0.2 + 2.5 0.3 + 3 0.4 = 2.45

 VARIANCE

Measures the spread of the distribution

Var = 2 = E 2 E X 2

Is calculated by summing the squares of the variables and

their respective probabilities, less the square of the mean
1 2 2.5 3
Pr( = ) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

E 2 = 12 0.1 + 22 0.2 + 2.52 0.3 + 32 0.4 = 6.375

Var = 6.375 2.452 = 0.3725
 STANDARD DEVIATION

Is also a measure of spread of a distribution

= = Var() = E 2 E X 2

Is calculated by taking the square root of the variance

Notice this means that the variance can never be negative

= Var = 0.610
 EXAMPLE
For the following discrete random variable find the mean and
the standard deviation.

2 0 2 4
Pr( = ) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5

E = 0.2 + 0.2 + 2 = 2

E 2 = 0.4 + 0.4 + 8 = 8.6

Var X = 8.6 22 = 4.6

= 4.6 = 2.144
 EXPECTATION THEORIES

Expectation theories allow us to work with the mean and

variance of a random discrete distribution without re-writing
the distribution

E + = E +

Var + = 2 Var()

The variance has no horizontal translation, why do you think

this is?
 EXAMPLE
2 0 2 4
Pr( = ) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5

E =2 and Var = 4.6

Given that = 3 + 2, Find Var , E() and its standard

deviation

E =32+2=8

Var = 32 4.6 = 41.4

= 41.4 = 6.434
 APPLICATION
The amount of cars that pass through a certain drive-thru on
any particular day follows the discrete random variable, .
0 6 9 12
Pr( = ) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5

A. What is the average amount of cars that pass through?

B. On a particular day, a few cars have passed through the

drive-thru, what is the probability that the amount of cars is
greater than 6?

C. What is the probability that no cars pass, 5 days in a row?

 APPLICATION (A)

0 6 9 12
Pr( = ) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5

What is the average amount of cars that pass through?

E = 6 0.3 + 9 0.1 + 12 0.5 = 8.7

It is expected that, on any given day, that 8.7 cars will pass
through the drive thru.
 APPLICATION (B)

0 6 9 12
Pr( = ) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5

On a particular day, a few cars have passed through the drive-

thru, what is the probability that the amount of cars is greater
than 6?

This is a conditional probability question.

Pr( > 6) 0.6 2

Pr > 6 > 0 = = =
Pr( > 0) 0.9 3
 APPLICATION (C)

0 6 9 12
Pr( = ) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5

What is the probability that no cars pass, 5 days in a row?

Each day is independent of each other, so we determine the

probability of it occurring on day one and raise it to the power
of 5.

Pr = 0 = 0.1

Pr 0,0,0,0,0 = 0.15 = 0.00001

 EXAM TIPS
You must know all of the properties of probability before
heading into your first exam, without them you will not be
able to answer most questions

The terminology, and their respective formulae (union,

independence, mutual exclusivity, conditional, etc.) are the
same for all distributions.

Express your answers in the required form, especially when

dealing with expected value.

Discrete probability questions always appear in exam 1

 SUMMARY

Integrations basic rules

Definition of a probability
Sample space
Terminology
Union, intersect
Probability properties
Independent, conditional and mutually exclusive
Discrete random variables
Mean, variance, standard deviation and
expectation theories
 LEARNING OUTCOMES

Binomial Distributions
Factorial and combinations
Bernoulli sequences
Expectancy and Variance

Continuous Probability
Continuous random variables
Measures of centre
Measure of spread
 BERNOULLI SEQUENCES

A Bernoulli sequence is a sequence of trials with the

following properties:
Each trial result has one of two outcomes, either
success or failure
The success of a trial, , is constant for all trials,
and each failure of a trial, 1 , is also constant
The trials are independent, such that any one trail
does not affect any other trial

An example could be a coin toss where heads is success,

as each event is independent and the chance for success
and failure is the same throughout all trials
 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

If , is the number of successes in a Bernoulli sequence,

each with a success probability of , then , is called a
binomial random variable, and has a binomial distribution.
We write any binomial random variable as follows:

~ ,

The difference between a binomial distribution and a

discrete one is that order doesnt matter.

For example, obtaining 5 favourable outcomes out of 10

trials, can all occur at the start or towards the end.
 FACTORIAL AND COMBINATION

Factorial is another operator and is represented using the

exclamation mark such that:

! = 1 2 2 1

The combination formula represents the amount of groups

of size , that can be formed from entities

!
=
! !
 EXAMPLE

Evaluate 6!.

6! = 6 5 4 3 2 1 = 720

How many different combination of 4 students can be chosen

from a group of 15?

15 15! 15 14 13 12
= = = 1365
4 4! 11! 4321

There are 1365 different combinations.

 DERIVATATION OF FORMULA

If we were to observe trials and obtain successes, of

probability,, regardless of order, we would:

Pr 3 success, 2 fails = 1 1

Pr success, fails = 1

Ways we can arrange the amount of successes =

Pr = = 1

 EXAMPLE
Given a soccer player, in practice, has a 90% chance of kicking
a goal, what is the probability that he makes all his shots if he
takes 10? What is the probability he makes half his shots?

~(10, 0.9)

10
Pr = 10 = 0.910 0.10
10
= 0.910

10
Pr( = 5) = 0.95 0.15
5
= 252 0.95 0.15
= 0.001 (3d. p)
 EXAMPLE CONTINUED

What is the probability that he makes at least 1 of his shots?

~(10, 0.9)

In scenarios like this, you can add all the probabilities from 1
to 10, however, as the sum of all probabilities must total 1, we
can take the complement and subtract it from the total
probability.

Pr 0 = 1 Pr = 0 = 1 0.110 = 0.999
 EXPECTANCY AND VARIANCE

Expected value, or mean, is the average amount of

successes we can expect given our distribution

E =

Variance measures the spread of the distribution

Var = (1 )
 EXAMPLE

Stephen Curry makes 55% of his three point shots in a typical

game. Given that he takes 16 shots in a particular game what
is the expected amount of shots he will make? What is the
variance of Currys shooting distribution?

~(16, 0.55)

E = = 0.55 16 = 8.8

Var = 1 = 0.55 16 0.45 = 3.96

 CALCULATORS

Being able to utilise a calculator is extremely important. It is

integral, sorry, as we most of probability is on exam 2.

Speed and efficiency is the most important.

The following information will be for the TI-nspire CX CAS

For all other calculators, make sure you know shortcuts to

bring up the screens required. Usually they are titled
Binomial CDF or Binomial PDF.
 EXAMPLE CONTINUED
On game 5 of the NBA finals, Curry makes a few shots, what is
the probability that he made two of his shots, given that he
shot the ball 9 times?

~(9, 0.55)

Pr( = 2)
Pr = 2 > 0 =
Pr( > 0)

0.041
=
0.999
= 0.041
Curry has a 4.1% chance to make 2 of his 9 shots.
 CONTINOUS PROBABILITY
A continuous variable is one that can take any real number
on a number line
A continuous random variable has the following properties:
0 for all
The area enclosed by the graph and the
must equal to one
Which of the following are continuous variables?

Money Gender Postcodes

Months in progress Number of houses Height

 EXAMPLE
Is the follow a continuous random variable?

3 2
= 01
0 elsewhere

Is () 0 for all ?

3 2 increases as does, 0 = 0 0 for all

Is the area under the graph 1?

1
= 1
0
 DETERMINING PROBABILTIIES

Probabilities for continuous functions only occur over

intervals, that is we cannot have Pr( = ) .

We determine probabilities using integration

Pr < < =

Whether or not the signs are inclusive is irrelevant, we

obtain the same answer
 EXAMPLE
2
=3 01
0 elsewhere

Pr 0 < < 1 =
Is a C. R. V. so Pr 0 < < 1 = 1
1
Pr 0 < < =
2
1/2
3 2 = 0.125
0
1
Pr <<1 =
2
1
1 Pr 0 < < = 0.875
2
 EXPECTANCY

The expected value, or mean, of a continuous random

variable, , is given by:

= E =

If () is a function of then the expected value of () is

given by:

E = ()

 MEDIAN

The median is another measure of centre and is the middle

most value such that 50% of the distribution lies above the
median, and 50% below.

The median, , is calculated as follows:

= 0.5

In general, the median is different to the mean.

 VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION

Variance and standard deviation are measures of spread

Variance is calculated as follows

Var = E X 2 2

E X 2 = 2

Standard deviation is the square root of variance

= V(X)
 INTERQUARTILE RANGE

The interquartile range is the difference between the 75th

percentile and the 25th percentile, that is, it is the range in
which the middle 50% of values exist.

IQR =

= 0.25 and = 0.75

 EXAMPLE
Consider the following probability density function:

+ 2 , 01
=
0,

2
If E X = find and .
3

1 1
2
+ 2 = 1 and + 2 =
0 0 3
1
= and = 2
3
 EXAMPLE CONTINUED
1 2,
= 3 + 2 01
0,

Evaluate Var(X)

Var X = E X 2 2
1 2
1 2
= 2 2
+ 2
0 3 3
23 4
=
45 9
1
=
15
 EXAMPLE CONTINUED
1 2,
= 3 + 2 01
0,

Find the median for the distribution.

1
+ 2 2 = 0.5
0 3
25 3
+ = 0.5
5 9
= 0.995

The median is 0.995, correct to 3 decimal places.

 EXAMPLE CONTINUED
1 2
= 3 + 2 , 01
0,

Find the interquartile range for this distribution.

= 0.25 and = 0.75

= 0.5 and = 0.881

IQR = = 0.381
 EXAMPLE CONTINUED
1 2,
= 3 + 2 01
0,

Find Pr( > 0.2| < 0.7)

Pr(0.2 < < 0.7)

Pr( > 0.2 < 0.7 =
Pr( < 0.7)
0.39
=
0.462

= 0.844
 EXAM TIPS
Binomial probability rarely appears in exam 1, if it does it
will be scenarios that involve small numbers.

Students often have trouble using the new screens on their

calculator, get practice on it, speed test yourself, this is
what separates students.

Rounding is also an issue, students are careless when

answering questions, round your answers to correct decimal
places.

Note in exam 1, if your answer is incomputable or is difficult

to compute, you most likely messed up.
 EXAM TIPS

Continuous probability rarely appears in exam 1, if it does it

would be a simple integration question, or the final question
on the exam, such as in 2016.

That means, get to know your calculator, speed and

accuracy is what sets students apart.

This is the easiest of the all the probabilities as no new

knowledge is required to compute problems, no new
screens to worry about. This should be the quickest section
in your exam.
 SUMMARY
Binomial Distributions
Properties of a binomial distribution
Determining probabilities
Expected value and variance
Understanding the binomial distribution formula
Using your calculator

Continuous distributions
Properties of a P.D.F
Determining probabilities
Mean, median, variance, standard deviation and
IQR
 LEARNING OUTCOMES

Normal Distributions
Standardisation and the 68 95 99.7% rule
Determining normal probabilities
Solving problems
Central limit theorem

Statistics
Populations and samples
Large and small populations
Distribution of sample proportion
Confidence intervals
 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

When something is normally, or approximately, normally

distributed, it means the data is centred around a mean
and follows a bell curve.

The normal distribution is a special type of continuous

probability distribution and is written like:

~(, )

1 1 2

= 2
2
 THE BELL CURVE

Bertrand,. (2016, 20/5). Miller Analogies Test Bell Curve. https://magoosh.com/mat/miller-analogies-test-bell-curve.

 BELL CURVE EXPLAINED

Most data lies around the centre

The further out you go, the less data

Each line represents a standard deviation from the mean,

the more standard deviations the further out

68% of the data lie within 1 standard deviation of the mean

95% within 2
99.7% within 3
 68 95 99.7% RULE
If the age of students in a particular awesomely spectacular
methods lecture was normally distributed with a mean of 17
and a standard deviation of 0.3:

Over what range, do we expect 68% of the students to lie?

~(17, 0.32 )

Using our rule, 68% of data lies within 1 standard deviation of

the mean:

16.7 and 17.3

 EXAMPLE CONTINUED

~(17, 0.32 )

Using the rule, find such that Pr < < 17 = 0.475

We have discovered that the value for is two standard

deviations below the mean

= 17 2 0.3 = 16.4
 THE STANDARD NORMAL

The bell curve you just saw was one of many, it was the
standard normal distribution and has special properties

~(0, 1)

We can standardise any normal distribution:

The standardised value tells us the number of standard

deviations the value lies from the mean
 EXAMPLE
~(17, 0.32 )

How many standard deviations from the mean is the age 17.6?
17.6 17
= =2
0.3

How many standard deviations from the mean is the age 16.7?
16.7 17
= = 1, =1
0.3

Hence evaluate Pr(16.7 < < 17.6) using the rule.

0.68 0.95
Pr 16.7 < < 17.6 = + = 0.815
2 2
 EXACT VALUES

The rule is only approximate, for example, not exactly 68%

of the data lies between 1 standard deviation of the mean,
but its close enough

In order to determine the exact values we will need

assistance from our calculators

We will use the Normal CDF function on our calculators

for this purpose
 EXAMPLE

Find the exact percentage of the amount of data that lies

within one standard deviation of the mean.

normCdf(1, 1, 0, 1)

= 0.682689

This was performed on a TI - nspire CX CAS

Notice that it is not exactly 68%, this is true for the other
percentages as well.
 EXAMPLE

The amounts of spins per minute on a fidget spinner is

normally distributed with a mean of 120 and a standard
deviation of 10. Find the probability that the amount of spins
is greater than 117.

~(120, 102 )

normCdf(117, , 120, 10)

= 0.6179
 INVERSE NORMAL
The inverse normally, as the name may suggest, is the
opposite of the normalCdf function.

When we used the normalCdf before we plugged in the

lower and upper bound to give us the area

The inverse normal we can provide the area and it will give
us the upper bound, ASSUMING, that the lower bound is
.

This is for the TI - nspire CX CAS, some calculators may

allow you to set both the lower and upper bound
 EXAMPLE
The amounts of spins per minute on a fidget spinner is
normally distributed with a mean of 120 and a standard
deviation of 10.

It is found that, 10% of fidget spinners are defective. A spinner

is defective is it more than amount of spins. Find . (3dp)

Pr > = 0.1
Pr < = 0.9
invNorm(0.9, 120, 10)
= 132.8155

= 132.816
 DETERMINING AND

Sometimes we are not given the standard deviation or the

mean, however we can determine these using the inverse
normal function. Recall that:

By standardising any normal distribution we can use the

inverse function as we know what the mean and standard
deviation is

~(0, 1)
 EXAMPLE
is normally distributed with a mean and standard
deviation . It is known that 35% of the data lies under = 6.
And 45% lies above = 10. Find and .

Pr < = 0.35 Pr > = 0.45

6 10
Pr < = 0.35 Pr > = 0.45

6 10
Pr < = 0.35 Pr < = 0.55

invNorm(0.35 , 0, 1) invNorm(0.55, 0, 1)
6 10
= 0.385 = 0.126

= 9.016 = 7.828
 STATISTICS

Statistics is taking all about taking a sample from a

population

In the real world, the population is too large, so we work

with statistics

A population can be defined as anything, for example, this

lecture room can be a population and the people at the
front are a sample.
 SAMPLE PROPORTION

A sample proportion is the ratio of desired outcomes to

total outcomes in a certain sample

For example, if I was interested in red balls, and I take a

sample of 10 balls, where in which 5 of them were red, then
1
my sample proportion is .
2

The sample proportion is denoted with .

The distribution of sample proportion is .
 SMALL POPULATION

Sample proportions are all based on the binomial

distribution

A small population, is a population of size about equal or

less to approximately 20.

When establishing the distribution of sample proportions

we use counting methods.
 EXAMPLE

In a population of 10 batteries, it is known that 6 of these are

defective. Determine the sample proportion distribution of
defective batteries if I take a sample of 3.

3 6 4 3 3
Pr = 1 = =
1 10 9 8 10
0 1 2 3
Pr( = ) 1 3 1 1
6 10 2 30

0 1 2 1
3 3
Pr( = ) 1 3 1 1
6 10 2 30
 LARGE POPULATION

A large population has an uncountable amount of entities,

so instead of using counting methods we must use the
binomial distribution

For a large sample you will be given a population

proportion, . This will be our success rate.

We will still take a sample size to create a sample propotion

distribution
 EXAMPLE

A shipment of ten million fidget spinners has arrived. It is

known that 20% of all fidget spinners are red. We take a
sample of 100 spinners.

Evaluate Pr > 0.1

Pr > 0.1 = Pr > 10

= 0.994
 EXAMPLE CONTINUED

Evaluate Pr( 0.2| < 0.3)

Pr(20 < 30)

Pr 0.2 < 0.3 =
Pr( < 30)

0.5398
=
0.9939

= 0.5431
 CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

When we have a large population the distribution can be

approximately normal

Which means we have methods of determining the

standard deviation and mean

= =

(1 )
=

 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
A confidence interval is determined from a sample

It is the estimate, such that a certain percentage of all

sample proportions will lie within this confidence interval

In general the confidence interval is:

1 1
, +


Where Pr < < =
100
 EXAMPLE
A certain sample of 100 Spotify users were taken, out of these
80 were premium users. Determine a 95% confidence interval
for .
80
= = 1.96
100

80 0.8 0.2 80 0.8 0.2

: 1.96 , + 1.96
100 100 100 100

451 549
: ,
625 625
 SUMMARY
Normal Distributions
68 95 99.7% Rule
Determining exact and approximate areas
Determining inverse normals
Using your calculator

Statistics
Sampling from small and large populations
Distributions of sample proportions
Expected value and standard deviation
Confidence intervals
Questions?