Human Health and Climate Change: Leverage Points For Adaptation in Urban Environments

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2012, 9, 2134-2158; doi:10.
3390/ijerph9062134
OPEN ACCESS
International Journal of
Environmental Research and
Public Health
ISSN 1660-4601
www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
Article
Human Health and Climate Change: Leverage Points for

Adaptation in Urban Environments
Katrina Proust 1,*, Barry Newell 2, Helen Brown 3, Anthony Capon 4, Chris Browne 5,
Anthony Burton 6, Jane Dixon 7, Lisa Mu 8 and Monica Zarafu 9
1
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population, The Australian National University, Canberra,
ACT 0200, Australia
2
Fenner School for Environment and Society, Research School of Engineering, The Australian
National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia; E-Mail: [email protected]
3
School of Public Health, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, WA 6845, Australia;
E-Mail: [email protected]
4
Discipline of Public Health, Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;
5
Research School of Engineering, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200,
Australia; E-Mail: [email protected]
6
School of Medicine, University of Western Sydney, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751,
Australia; E-Mail: [email protected]
7
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population, The Australian National University, Canberra,
ACT 0200, Australia; E-Mail: [email protected]
8
Public Health and Preventive Medicine Residency Program, School of Population & Public Health,
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada; E-Mail: [email protected]
9
University of Technology Sydney, 15 Broadway, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia;
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected];

Tel.: +61-2-6125-6836; Fax: +61-2-6125-0740.
Received: 3 May 2012 / Accepted: 28 May 2012 / Published: 6 June 2012
Abstract: The design of adaptation strategies that promote urban health and well-being in
the face of climate change requires an understanding of the feedback interactions that take
place between the dynamical state of a city, the health of its people, and the state of the
planet. Complexity, contingency and uncertainty combine to impede the growth of such
systemic understandings. In this paper we suggest that the collaborative development of
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2012, 9 2135
conceptual models can help a group to identify potential leverage points for effective
adaptation. We describe a three-step procedure that leads from the development of a
high-level system template, through the selection of a problem space that contains one or
more of the groups adaptive challenges, to a specific conceptual model of a sub-system of
importance to the group. This procedure is illustrated by a case study of urban dwellers
maladaptive dependence on private motor vehicles. We conclude that a system dynamics
approach, revolving around the collaborative construction of a set of conceptual models,
can help communities to improve their adaptive capacity, and so better meet the challenge
of maintaining, and even improving, urban health in the face of climate change.
Keywords: cities; urban health; climate adaptation; systems thinking; system dynamics;
conceptual models; co-effects; leverage points
1. Introduction
Since the Industrial Revolution there has been a flow of human beings from rural settings into
cities. These immigrants seek employment, education, health and social services, cultural activities,
and protection from adverse environmental conditions. Urban population growth has continued in
recent decades, and today more than half the worlds people live in cities and towns. This trend is
continuing, and the worlds urban population is predicted to reach some five billion by 2030 [1].
While many people benefit from their membership in urban communities, and find cities
stimulating centres of innovation and opportunity, the negative consequences of high-consumption
living are becoming apparent in some urban settings. These consequences are particularly important in
relation to public health and well-being. City dwellers are confronted, among other things, with air and
noise pollution, heat-island effects, reduced opportunities for physical activity and rest, and the high
cost of fresh food [24]. In an increasing number of cases, people suffer from overcrowding,
alienation, inequity, and high crime rates. Furthermore, when looked at more widely, some cities are
seen to have large ecological footprints. Urban communities can be intense users of energy, water and
other natural resources, and are prolific producers of greenhouse gases (GHG) and waste.
Traditionally such issues have been approached on a one-by-one basis. It is a natural human
response, when faced with a suite of problems, to attempt to solve each one separately. Solutions are
looked for locally, and connections between problems are overlooked or downplayed. For example,
because urban communities are relatively isolated from the natural world, urban dwellers can be blind
to their own dependence on fundamental ecosystem serviceswith the result that environmental issues
are often seen as peripheral. Experience has shown, however, that such silo approaches are
ineffective and misleading. Cities are complex systems. Their behaviour emerges from interactions
between their parts (actors, sub-systems, sectors), and between their parts and the components of the
wider Earth system. It is, therefore, not possible to understand the behaviour of a city by studying the
behaviour of its parts taken separately, in isolation from one another. A systems approach, with a
strong focus on cross-sector interactions, is needed [5].
Nowhere is the need for a systems approach more apparent than in the public health arena. There is
a growing recognition today that physical, mental, and social health are closely interconnected, and
strongly affected by decisions that are made in other sectors (e.g., transport, energy, agriculture,
environment). Public-health policy makers now seek to develop more effective strategies that mesh
insights from a wide range of perspectives. The urgency of this integrative challenge is increased by
the public health risks imposed by climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) has reported that climate change is already contributing to the global burden of disease and
premature death, and that these effects are likely to increase over time in all countries [6].
Climate change projections include increases in extreme events (heatwaves, droughts, floods,
wildfires), and changes to environmental determinants of health such as air, food and water quality.
The nature and extent of these impacts is strongly influenced by environmental factors, and so urban
populations are likely to experience impacts of climate change in ways that are significantly different
to those in non-urban environments [3,712]. Given the expected interactions between urban form,
climate and public health, it is clear that the adaptation and mitigation strategies designed for urban
areas must have a secure foundation in systems science. If systemic approaches to urban climate
adaptation can be devised, they will have the potential to affect the health and well-being of more than
half of the Worlds population, and so will be crucial components of the worldwide response to
climate change [3].
Nevertheless, practical attempts to take a systems approach soon run into a major problem. An
urban climate-health system is overwhelmingly complicated. There are many components interacting
with each other in many different, time-dependent ways. There is uncertainty concerning the nature of
a significant number of these interactions, and ignorance of the existence of others. Efforts to construct
complete models of such systems are unlikely to generate useful resultssuch models involve too
many variables and too much uncertainty to provide clear guidance. What is needed is a way to cut
through the complexitya way to identify the essential drivers of system behaviour. Research in
System Dynamics [13] has demonstrated that this is possible. That is, there is a way to reconcile (a) the
need to take a broad systems view, with (b) the need to produce policy recommendations that are
specific enough to be of practical value. In many circumstances it is possible to isolate relatively
simple, generic feedback structures that can explain significant aspects of the behaviour of a wide
range of real-world systems. Discussions centred on a small set of such conceptual models can yield
useful insights into the dynamics of a given system-of-interest, and so represent a valuable first step in
attempts to improve management effectiveness and adaptive capacity [5,13,14].
Our aim in this paper is to demonstrate how such conceptual models can be constructed. A basic
understanding of the dynamics of complex systems is a necessary point-of-departure for our
discussion. For this reason, we begin, in Section 2, by outlining some key concepts from the field of
System Dynamics [15]. We summarise the idea of leverage pointsplaces in a system where
relatively small management intervention can produce large changesand briefly introduce the
Collaborative Conceptual Modelling (CCM) approach that underlies the model-building process
described here. CCM includes a three-step process that has the potential to enhance a groups adaptive
capacity:
(1) System Template. Develop an abstract system template that expresses a generic hypothesis
concerning the behaviour of human-environment systems. The system template described in
Section 3 is a co-effects model that was developed in an Australian project focused on the
nexus between urbanism, climate adaptation, and human health.
(2) Problem Space. Develop an intermediate-level version of the template that projects it into the
domain of the type of management problem of concern to the group. The model presented in
Section 4 is tailored to support a discussion of the impacts of maladaptive dependence in
urban systems. This choice of problem space is based on our focus on the growth of
maladaptive dependencies as a powerful force in urban climate-health systems.
(3) System-of-Interest. Generate a low-level version of the template that is tightly focused on a
particular system-of-interest. This step requires the identification of (a) specific system
variables, and (b) the specific interactions that can take place between these variables. The
model presented in Section 5 is focused on selected maladaptive aspects of urban dependence
on private motor vehicles (cars). It is a version of the intermediate-level template, instantiated
to fit the interactions between urban transport, local air quality, and cardiovascular and
respiratory disease.
In Section 6 we apply the ideas developed in the previous sections to a discussion of leverage points
for adaptation in the urban climate-health system. Concluding remarks are given in Section 7.
2. Elements of a System Dynamics Approach
The word system has many meanings. In this paper we are concerned with system dynamics. By
dynamics we mean the way that the state of a system changes over time in response to endogenous
(internally generated) or exogenous (externally imposed) forces. We define a dynamical system to be:
something composed of discernible parts (elements, agents) that interact to constrain
each others behaviour. It is these mutual constraints, operating between the parts of the
system, that limit the range of behaviours available to the system as a whole, and thus give
rise to its emergent (or synergistic) properties [16].
The concept of system behaviour can be understood using the Bathtub Metaphor, and the related
stock-and-flow language, developed by the System Dynamics community [5,13,14,17]. In the Bathtub
Metaphor the volume of water in the tub represents the stock of material or non-material things
accumulated in a system, and the flows of water into and out of the tub represent the effects of
processes that change the level of the stocks. The way that these levels change over time is referred
to as the behaviour over time of the system. It is important to recognise that the Bathtub Metaphor is
not just a matter of colourful languageit allows strict bathtub logic to be used to think about
system behaviour in general [18]. That is, just as the water level in the bathtub changes over time in a
way that depends on changes in the difference between inflow and outflow rates, so the state of a
system changes over time in a way that depends on changes in the relative rates of its state-change
processes [19]. A readable introduction to System Dynamics is given by Meadows [5], and the field is
thoroughly reviewed by Sterman [13]. A System Dynamics approach revolves around four
crucial concepts:
(1) StocksStocks are accumulations of material and non-material things. For example, a stores
inventory of products for sale, the number of vehicles in a city, urban population, the number of
people with a given disease, the power of Local Government. Accumulation occurs whenever a
container integrates the difference between its inflows and outflows over time.
Accumulation is a pervasive process in everyday life, and arises at every temporal, spatial and
organisational scale [20]. The state of a system at any given time can be described by reporting
the current levels of its stocks (i.e., the amounts accumulated). In other words, a systems stocks
are its state variables. Containers cannot be filled or drained instantaneously, so stocks cause
delays in a systems response to management initiatives. They give a system the equivalent of
physical inertia and can cause oscillations in system state. Stocks also act as buffers between
unequal inflows and outflowsfor example, a citys water-storage dam acts as a buffer between
irregular river flows and steady consumption by the city dwellers. Stocks are conventionally
represented by rectangles in diagrams of the structure of dynamical systems (Figure 1).
(2) FlowsFlows are processes that change the levels of the stocks in a system. Given that a
systems stocks are its state variables, flows are properly called state-change processes.
Inflows increase the level of a stock, outflows reduce its level. The level of a stock can change
only if there is a net inflow or outflow. The rate at which the state of a system changes depends
on the process flow rates (represented by the tap symbols in Figure 1). The stock-and-flow
structure of a system determines the general form of its behaviour over time. Stocks cannot
affect each other directlythey communicate via flows. A change in the level of a stock can
affect the rate of a flow that, in turn, affects the level of another stock. A clear distinction
between stocks (accumulations) and flows (processes) is a hallmark of good systems thinking.
(3) FeedbackDynamical systems contain causal loops. A change in the level of a stock can feed
back, around a causal loop, to either amplify or oppose the original change. A feedback
structure that amplifies change is called a reinforcing (positive) feedback loop. A feedback
structure that opposes change is called a balancing (negative) feedback loop. A simple
reinforcing feedback structure is shown in Figure 1, where an increase in the car dependence of
the community increases the rate of growth of the car fleet. As the car fleet grows so private and
public decisions are made that increase car dependence in the community, and so on around the
loop. Such a loop can also drive the level of both stocks down, reducing both the car
dependence of the community and the size of the car fleet.
(4) Endogenous BehaviourA distinguishing characteristic of System Dynamics thinking is its
focus on endogenous behaviour [21]. Such behaviour is generated by feedback within the
dynamical systemit does not need an exogenous driver. When external forces are applied, the
systems response is generated by its internal dynamics. For example, the simple reinforcing
feedback structure shown in Figure 1 is capable of autonomously driving both stocks up or
down. If an external force acts (say) to increase the rate of the process that decreases the car
dependence of the community, then the processes that increase the number of cars will slow and
the size of the car fleet will decrease over time (all else being equal). The reinforcing loop will
act to amplify that change. This endogenous feedback process can continue to drive system
behaviour, even after the external force has been removed.
Figure 1. An illustrative stock-and-flow feedback structure. The rectangles represent

stocks (accumulations). The double-lined arrows represent inflows and outflows (processes
that change the amounts accumulated). The tap symbols represent process flow-rates.
The single-lined arrows represent influence or information links. The encircled R in the
centre of the diagram indicates that this is a reinforcing (positive) feedback loop.
The identification of leverage points for management intervention in a system is a principal aim of
System Dynamics studies. A leverage point is a place in a system where (a) a relatively small local
change can produce major effects throughout the system, and (b) communities are likely to be willing,
and able, to make the required change. Meadows [5] provides an overview discussion of the nature of
leverage points. She includes a useful classification of kinds of leverage points, expressed in system
dynamics terms and ordered according to effectiveness. The following list of system leverage-points,
in order of increasing power, is adapted from Meadowss Chapter 6:
Numbers. Constants and parameters such as subsidies, taxes, and standards.
Buffers. The size of stabilising stocks and inventories relative to their flows.
Stock-and-Flow Structures. Physical systems and the way that they interact.
Delays. The length of time delays relative to the rates of system change.
Balancing Feedback Loops. The strength of stabilising loops relative to the changes that
they oppose.
Reinforcing Feedback Loops. The strength (gain) of the driving loops.
Information Flows. The structure of who does and does not have access to information.
Rules. Policies and laws, including incentives, punishments, and constraints.
Self-Organisation. The ability of the system to change its own structure.
Goals. The purpose or function of the system.
Paradigms. The mind-set out of which the system arises. This mind-set determines the systems
goals, structures, rules, delays, and parameters.
Policy makers and managers do not have to be expert system analysts, but they do need to be
systems thinkers. Dynamical systems act in ways that can surprise conventional thinkers [5,13,2224].
Many people have a linear view of the way that cause and effect operate in their world. If I push
twice as hard on the pedals, the bike will go twice as fast. If two cows lean on a fence, their combined
force will be simply the sum of their individual forces. Dynamical systems do not always work this
way. A small applied force can lead to runaway behaviour, as a reinforcing feedback loop takes hold
and amplifies the original effect. Or a large applied force can have little effect, if it is opposed by
powerful balancing feedbacks. Decision makers who are linear thinkers, and focus exclusively on
sectors or sub-systems small enough to appear understandable and manageable, are likely to be
surprised by counterintuitive policy outcomes. Policies that emerge from a narrowly focused silo
approach may work initially. They are, however, often ineffective (even damaging) in the
medium-to-long term, because of their authors failure to take account of the non-linear effects of
accumulation and cross-sector feedback.
Newell and Proust [25,26] have developed an approach, called Collaborative Conceptual Modelling
(CCM), which is designed to support an integrative groups efforts to improve their understanding of
the basic dynamics of their system-of-interest, thereby improving their adaptive capacity. CCM draws
on insights from three intellectual domains: cognitive science, dynamical systems theory, and the
practice of applied history. It provides ways to elicit individuals worldviews, and to compare and
mesh them to produce shared understandings that are more powerful than those that can be developed
by individuals working alone [27]. It uses a set of protocols for developing dynamic hypotheses that
describe simple feedback structures that have the potential to dominate system behaviour.
From the research point-of-view, the CCM approach provides a way to test the hypothesis that
profound improvements in adaptive plans can flow from collaborative attempts to construct simple
conceptual models. A CCM team works to develop a set of simple causal structures that they believe
capture important aspects of the feedback dynamics of their system-of-interest. Under the CCM
hypothesis, discussions of the potential interactions between these separate structures provide a way
for the team to build an improved, shared understanding of the behaviour of dynamical systems in
general, and their system-of-interest in particular. In the process, team members make the transition
from linear thinking to systems thinking. Furthermore, their conceptual models are ideal starting
points for the development of working stock-and-flow models that can support the development of
systemic policies. The collaborative process, focused as it is around the development of cross-sector
models, can also result in improved dialogue and trust between players who initially hold conflicting
worldviews. For all of these reasons, the collaborative development of conceptual models has the
potential to lead to increased adaptive capacity and more effective adaptive plans. The way that the
CCM process can work, and the beneficial effects that systems thinking can have on adaptive
planning, are discussed in the following sections.
3. System TemplateCo-Effects in Urban Systems
The first CCM step calls for the development of an abstract system template that expresses a
generic hypothesis about the behaviour of human-environment systems. The template presented in this
paper is focused on the interplay between urban form, the state of the planet, and human health
and well-being.
Some 75 per cent of Australians now live in cities of more than 100,000 people, located largely in
the narrow coastal zone [28]. The interconnections between urbanism, climate adaptation, and public
health have been targeted in a recent initiative of the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO). CSIRO has funded a cluster of research projects
(hereinafter referred to as the Cluster) under its Climate Adaptation Flagship. A principal aim of the
Cluster research is to develop insights that can help urban planners and policy makers to improve their
understanding of the dynamics of urban climate-health systems, thereby increasing the likelihood that
their climate adaptation strategies will be effective. The Cluster projects include three focused on
vector-borne diseases in Northern Australia, and three focused on the rapidly growing outer area of
Western Sydney.
Sydney, the capital of New South Wales, is the largest Australian city with a population of over
4.3 million people. Constrained by the sea to the east, Sydneys metropolitan area has been expanding
westward in recent decades. The Western Sydney projects are concerned with (a) thermal stress, built
environments and health, (b) urban food systems, climate change and health, and (c) urban transport,
air quality, climate change and health. It is anticipated that the findings from these projects will be
relevant to the outer metropolitan areas of cities elsewhere in Australia, North America and New
Zealand. Cities in these countries share similar patterns of development, which reflect particularly the
industrial advances of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.
The Cluster includes a seventh project which aims to develop conceptual models and adaptation
scenarios that incorporate the results from the three Western Sydney projects. Here we present the
results of a series of CCM workshops that were carried out as a part of this integrative project. The aim
of these workshops was to use insights from the individual projects inductively to develop an
overarching system template. The process began with three project-focused workshops, followed by an
integrative workshop where members of the project teams came together to develop their initial
high-level view of the urban climate-health system.
Participants in the initial, project-focused workshops were introduced to basic system dynamics
concepts and were instructed in the use of influence and causal-loop diagrams as exploratory
system-analysis tools. Applying the CCM pair-blending approach [27], participants worked
(a) individually to produce influence diagrams that expressed their particular view of the causal
structure of their system-of-interest, and then (b) in pairs to develop blended influence diagrams that
meshed their individual views. This step helped them develop a new, shared view of the target causal
structure. Finally, the pair-blended diagrams were presented and discussed in plenary session.
The outputs from the initial workshops were used to construct a number of system-overview
diagrams. Each diagram expressed a hypothesis regarding some of the cross-sector feedback structures
in a typical urban climate-health system. An example, with a focus on the interplay between climate,
transport, urban form, and public health, is reproduced as Figure 2. Diagrams of this type provide a
glimpse of the feedback structure of the target system, but they are obviously too complicated to
provide useable insights into the dynamics of the system. It is here that the CCM three-step modelling
process is neededstarting with the development of the system template.
The aim of the integrative workshop was to develop a first version of the system template. The
process was guided by the diagrams produced in the initial workshops and included a consideration of
Boydens Biosensitivity Triangle (Figure 3). Boyden [29] was concerned with the impact of human
society on the health of people and the planet. He identified two pathways by which human society can
affect public healtha direct pathway (shown by arrow a in Figure 3) and an indirect pathway (shown
by arrows b and c) whereby impacts on the health of the planet flow through to changes in public
health. These ideas provided a useful staring point for the integrative discussions.
A system template based on the outcomes of the integrative workshop is shown in Figure 4. The
template expresses our hypothesis concerning the high-level structure of urban climate-health systems.
A principal aim of the Cluster research is to generate insights into the interactions between urbanism,
climate and health. Accordingly, the high-level structure expressed by the template provides an
explicit subdivision of system stocks into three sub-sets: State of Urban Complex, State of Earth
System (which includes the climate sub-system and local environmental sub-systems), and Human
Health & Well-Being. This process serves to sub-divide the overall urban climate-health system into
sub-systems that are themselves complex feedback systems. Examples of the kind of stocks allocated
to the sub-systems are listed in Table 1. Each arrow in the diagram represents a bundle of causal links.
The kind of causal processes included in each bundle are identified in Table 2.
Figure 2. An hypothesis concerning selected aspects of the causal structure of urban

climate-health systems. In this influence diagram the blocks of text represent system
variables, and the arrows represent causal links.
Figure 3. Boydens Biosensitivity Triangle (modified to reflect our focus on human

activities). The arrows have been labelled for ease of reference.
The structure displayed in Figure 4 is influenced by Boydens triangle, but differs from it in two
important respects: First, the notion of Human Activities has been replaced with State of Urban
Complex. This has been done to emphasise that all the variables of this sub-system are stocks (state
variables). Activities are not stocksthey are flows that are affected by, and affect, the levels of the
stocks. In Figure 4 human activities are represented by Links 1 to 4. Second, there are two additional
causal links. Links 1 and 3 are policy links whereby the state of human health and well-being, and
the state of the planet, drive human activities that influence the state of the urban complex.
Figure 4. The Co-Effects Template. The blocks of text in this influence diagram represent
system stocks (state variables) grouped into three high-level sub-systems. Examples of
these stocks are given in Table 1. The arrows represent bundles of causal links. Examples
of the flows (state-change processes) associated with each link are given in Table 2.
Table 1. The stocks of Figure 4.

Stocks Description
State of Urban Stocks that define the state of a city and its inhabitants. Both physical
Complex and social variables are required. Examples include area of city, area
of green space, kilometres of roads, size of car fleet, quality of
infrastructure, extent of infrastructure, street permeability, energy
consumption, albedo of urban region, size of population, population
density, security of food supply, affluence, social cohesion, alienation,
equality and visual amenity.
State of Earth Stocks that define the physical and ecological state of the planet. Must
System include variables that measure the physical state of the planet and
those measuring the health of ecosystems at all scales from local to
global. Examples include atmospheric energy content, GHG
concentrations, ocean acidity, biodiversity, species abundance, extent
of native vegetation, condition of soils, and condition of fresh water.
Human Health & Stocks that define the physiological, psychological and social health of
Well-being an urban community. Examples include incidence of specific diseases,
extent of obesity, physical fitness, stress levels, level of mental health,
acclimatisation to weather extremes, sense of purpose, sense of
belonging, sense of security.
The template has three feedback loops. There is a health-effects loop that operates through Links 1
and 2. There is an environmental-effects loop that operates through Links 3 and 4. And there is a
co-effects loop that operates through Links 1, 4 and 5. Link 5 represents processes whereby the state
of the planet has a direct effect on human health and well-being. For example, there are co-benefits
where actions taken to mitigate climate change have significant public health benefits [30]. There are
also co-costs where actions taken to mitigate global change have detrimental effects on public health
and well-beingfor example, increased environmental flows can threaten the viability of irrigation
communities. The template must be able to accommodate both kinds of feedback effectthe name
Co-Effects Template has been chosen to reflect the required generality.
Table 2. The causal links of Figure 4.

Link Processes represented by the link
1 Human activities. The design and implementation of formal and informal social and
public health policies.
2 Human behavioural patterns influenced by the state of the urban complex. Processes
whereby the state of the urban complex directly affects individual physiological,
psychological and social functioning.
3 Human activities. The design and implementation of formal and informal
environmental protection policies.
4 Extraction of natural resources and pollution (dumping of wastes). Conservation and
restoration activities.
5 Processes whereby environmental conditions directly affect human physiological,
psychological and social states.
The absence of a sixth link, running directly from Human Health & Well-Being to State of Earth
System, expresses our view that under normal circumstances there are no processes whereby the
health and well-being of a community has a significant direct effect on the state of the planet. This
causal link exists, but in the overwhelming majority of cases it is mediated by human activities that
affect State of Urban Complex. That is, it operates through Links 1 and 4.
The Co-Effects Template is a high-level, abstract representation. It summarises real-world feedback
structures that have literally thousands of variables and many more causal links. The use of the
template to guide studies of the urbanism-climate-health nexus should help analysts to establish and
maintain a systems focus. In particular, its use should ensure that cross-sectoral feedback effects are
taken into account. But, to use it to guide a dynamical study, the template must be instantiated to
produce a model that is tailored to the context and scales of a specific, concrete study. In CCM practice
this process involves two more steps.
4. The Problem SpaceMaladaptive Technology Dependence
The second CCM step in the development of a useful conceptual model involves projecting the
system template into the domain of the chosen type of adaptation problem. In this paper our chosen
problem space is the well-known tendency of urban communities to develop strong, often maladaptive,
dependence on specific technologies [3133]. Examples include air conditioning, private motor
vehicles, fossil-fuel-based electricity generation, flood levees, television and pharmaceuticals. We
consider a technology dependence to be maladaptive if, despite having definite benefits, it increases
the risk that an urban community will suffer ill effects from climate change (or other global change).
Our intermediate-level version of the Co-Effects Template is shown in Figure 5. The high-level
group of stocks State of Urban Complex has been replaced with the single stock Fraction of
community using specific technology, which serves to establish a focus on the issue of technology
dependence. State of Earth System has been replaced with a more focused group of stocks labelled
Quality of local environment, and Human Health & Well-Being has been replaced with Public
health & well-being. The feedback loops in Figure 5 have been labelled Health Effects (Links 1 and 2),
Environmental Effects (Links 3 and 4), and Co-Effects (Links 1, 4 and 5). The causal processes that
are associated with each link are described in Table 3.
Figure 5. An intermediate-level hypothesis concerning technology dependence in urban

settings. The structure is derived from the Co-Effects Template and the arrows (causal
links) are labelled in accordance with the numbering scheme used in Figure 4. The
state-change processes represented by each arrow are described briefly in Table 3. The
encircled symbol (R/B) in the centre of each feedback loop indicates that the loop is either
reinforcing or balancing, depending on the net effect of its causal links.

1 Design and implementation of social and public health policies that target the
communitys dependence on the specific technology.
2 Processes whereby the habitual use of the specific technology affects the state of human
physiological, psychological and social systems. There will typically be a mixture of
positive and negative effects.
3 Design and implementation of environmental policies that target the communitys level
of dependence on the specific technology.
4 Processes whereby the habitual use of the specific technology affects the state of the
local environment. These processes are mediated by local ecosystems through the
provision of ecosystem services. Extraction of resources and dumping of wastes.
Conservation and restoration processes. Processes typically have a mixture of positive
and negative effects.
5 Processes whereby environmental conditions affect the state of human physiological,
psychological and social systems.
Each link in Figure 5 represents a number of causal processesthe net effect of these processes
depends on whether they reinforce or oppose each other. At this intermediate level the stocks and
causal links shown in the diagram are still too abstract to allow dynamical analysis, and so the nature
of the feedback loops (whether they are balancing or reinforcing) cannot yet be determined.
Nevertheless, the diagram can be used to develop a general classification of adaptation situations.
Such a classification is shown in Table 4. In the first column of this table are listed type-designations
for adaptation situations where there is a risk of maladaptation. In columns two and three are listed the
polarities of Links 2 and 4, respectively (see Box 1). Column four of Table 4 lists the risk of
maladaptation. In column five, we list policy actions that have the potential to promote adaptation.
Table 4. Classification of adaptation situations.

Type Link 2 Link 4 Level of Potential adaptive
Polarity Polarity risk strategy
I Positive Positive Zero Increase Dependence
II Negative Negative High Decrease Dependence
III Positive Negative Medium Decrease Link 4 Effect
IV Negative Positive Medium Decrease Link 2 Effect
BOX 1
Causal Link Polarities
In System Dynamics terminology a causal link can have one of two polarities [13]. In the diagram
below, the letters A and B represent system variables and the arrows represent causal links. The
polarity of a link is indicated by a plus sign (+) or a minus sign () attached to the arrow
representing the link.
Positive polarity means that an increase/decrease in the level of variable A will cause the level of
variable B to eventually rise above/fall below the level that it otherwise would have had (all else being
equal). Similarly, negative polarity means that an increase/decrease in the level of variable A will
cause the level of variable B to eventually fall below/rise above the level that it otherwise would have
had (all else being equal). Diagrams where polarities have been assigned are called causal diagrams or
causal-loop diagrams.
When Links 2 and 4 both have positive polarity, their associated processes work together to
improve the health of the environment and the community, and the risk of maladaptation will be zero
(all else being equal). In such Type I adaptation situations, technology dependence produces net
positive outcomes and adaptation may well be enhanced by increasing the communitys use of the
specific technology. When Links 2 and 4 both have negative polarity, their associated processes work
together to reduce the health of the environment and the community, and so the risk of maladaptation
will be high. In such Type II adaptation situations, characteristic of maladaptation, it will be
advantageous in the long term to reduce the communitys use of the technology. When the net
polarities are mixed (Type III and IV leverage points), then the Links 2 and 4 processes will oppose
each other and the risk of maladaptation will be reduced. In Type III situations, where Link 2 has net
positive effects and Link 4 has net negative effects, it may be useful to maintain the current level of
community dependence on the technology, but to work to reduce the impact of Link 4 processes.
Finally, in Type IV situations, it may be effective to maintain the level of dependence but seek ways to
reduce the impact of the Link 2 processes. Note that, in this analysis, we assume that an increase in the
quality of the local environment always has a beneficial effect on public health and well-being.
The classification presented in Table 4 must be used with caution. First, because feedback systems
are non-linear, the net polarity of a bundle of causal links can change as the state of the system
changes, causing a shift from beneficial to detrimental impacts. Second, because the feedback system
shown in Figure 5 is clearly a sub-system of the wider human-environment system, in some cases the
impact of changes in the wider system may invalidate the reasoning behind the classification.
Nevertheless, the classification typifies the kind of reasoning that is involved in systems thinking
and, provided that it is used with understanding, it can provide a useful starting point for
dynamical analysis.
5. System-of-InterestDependence on Private Motor Vehicles
The third CCM step in the development of a useful conceptual model involves defining a particular
system-of-interest. This instantiation process involves the following steps:
(1) Replace the groups of stocks with the specific stocks of concern in the particular dynamical
study. The number of stocks included in the model needs to be small (ideally ~5). Maintain the
distinction between stocks (state variables) and flows (state-change processes).
(2) Describe the specific flows (state-change processes) whereby the chosen stocks affect each
other. There will be a mixture of beneficial and detrimental effects.
To keep our model development focused on the co-effects of technology dependence, we follow the
dynamic hypothesis displayed in Figure 5. For this illustrative case study we have chosen private
motor vehicles powered by internal combustion engines as the technology of interest. The benefits and
costs of dependence on this technology are widely recognised by urban designers and managers [3436].
As shown in Figure 6, we have selected Individual dependence on private motor vehicles as our
indicator of technology dependence. This stock can be measured, for example, in terms of the fraction
of an individuals travel that is made using cars. Local air quality has been selected as the measure of
the quality of the local environment. In addition to the direct effect of vehicle emissions, this stock is
affected by climatic conditionsexamples include the dependence of ground-level ozone
concentrations on sunlight and temperature regimes, and the dependence of local air quality on the
flushing effect of wind. Incidence of cardiovascular and respiratory disease is our measure of
public health and well-being. This stock is actually an indicator of public ill-health, but it is used here
because measures of the incidence of disease are a natural choice in the public health arena.
Intervening stocks have been added in Links 1, 3 and 4 to clarify the logic of our hypothesis.
Extent and quality of active transport facilities (Link 1) and Extent and quality of public
transport network (Link 3) are intended to represent the result of policies designed to influence an
individuals chosen mode of transport. Aggregate vehicle kilometres travelled (Link 4) is the sum of
the distance travelled by all members of the community. All three of these intervening stocks effect a
scale-change, from regional scale to individual scale (in the case of Links 1 and 3) and from individual
scale back to regional scale (in the case of Link 4). The processes whereby the selected stocks affect
one another are described briefly in Table 5.
Figure 6. A causal loop diagram concerning selected co-effects of vehicle-dependence in

urban settings. The arrows represent causal links and are labelled in accordance with the
numbering scheme used in the Co-Effects Template. Each arrow has been assigned a
polarity. The state-change processes represented by each arrow are described in Table 5.
Links 1, 3 and 4 each have two components, labelled a and b. The encircled symbols
B1, B2 and B3 indicate that all three feedback loops are balancing.
Once specific stocks have been chosen it becomes possible to assign polarities to the causal links.
The polarities assigned in Figure 6 indicate that an increase in the fraction of travel by cars will lead to
a decrease in local air quality and an increase in the incidence of diseasea Type II adaptation
situation (Table 4). The obvious adaptive strategy is to implement health and environmental policies
that work to reduce the communitys dependence on cars. This conclusion is given additional weight
by the observation that cars powered by internal combustion engines contribute significantly to
atmospheric GHG concentrations and climate change.
It is important to recognise that balancing feedback loops like those shown in Figure 6 are
goal-seeking [13]. That is, all else being equal, the feedback will drive the level of the controlled
stock towards a specific target level. In situations where the controlled stock is already at the target
level, a balancing loop will resist any force that tends to move it away from the target level.
A stock-and-flow map, such as that displayed in Figure 7, can help explain this behaviour.
Consider, for example, the Environmental Effects loop (labelled B2 in Figure 6). The strength
of the feedback exerted by this loop depends on
Air Quality Difference = Air Quality Goal Local Air Quality.
As the level of Local Air Quality approaches Air Quality Goal, Air Quality Difference will
approach zero, as will the strength of the balancing feedback. As a result, Local Air Quality will
stabilise at or near the goal level. In many real-world systems the controlled stock will follow a
damped oscillation about its corresponding goal. Oscillatory behaviour is the result of the delays
caused by the filling and draining of stocks. Because of these delays the controlled variable cannot
respond instantly to the difference between the actual and desired conditions and so overshoots and
undershoots its goal. In general terms, however, the overall level of Local Air Quality can be
expected to rise if Air Quality Goal is lifted. The same behaviour will be displayed by the Health
Effects loop (B1) and the Co-Effects Loop (B3). Note that the latter is driven by the public health goal.

1a Design and implementation of policies that promote active transport, driven by the
insight that cardiovascular and respiratory problems can be ameliorated by
physical activity. Processes include communication of research results and
political processes. Political will is required. Policy initiatives include allocation of
public funds for construction and maintenance of active transport facilities (e.g.,
bike paths), and allocation of private funds for the purchase of equipment for
active transport (e.g., bikes).
1b Individual decisions to use active transport instead of vehicular travel. Factors that
influence the attractiveness of active transport for commuters include: commuting
distance, individual physical fitness, quality and extent of available facilities
(including work-place showers), air quality, and weather. Processes include public
education.
2 Obesogenic effects of reduced physical activity, particularly for commuters.
Immune system suppression due to chronic psycho-social stress.
3a Design and implementation of policies that promote public transport. Processes
include communication of research results and political processes. Political will is
required. Policy initiatives include allocation of public funds for expansion and
maintenance of the public transport system.
3b Individual decisions to use public transport instead of vehicular travel. For
commuters the attractiveness of public transport flows from reductions in the cost
and stress of commuting, but depends also on the number and location of pick-up
points, and the facilities provided at those points. Processes include public
education.
4a The process of driving cars.
4b The process of using vehicle propulsion systems. Internal combustion engines emit
a range of air pollutants including CO, CO2, NOx, VOC and fine particulate
matter. In the presence of sunlight NOx and VOC contribute to the formation of
ground-level O3. Effect on air quality mediated by local ecosystem through the
provision of ecosystem services.
5 Reduction in the capacity of haemoglobin to transfer oxygen. The induction of
inflammatory responses. Disrupted cellular processes. Increased oxidative stress.
Immune system impairment.
The co-effects feedback structure presented in Figures 6 and 7 is tightly focused on a specific group
of variables. A more global view is presented in Figure 8. The cross-scale reinforcing loop shown in
this figure can drive a growing dependence on cars as the climate becomes less and less suitable for
outdoor activity. It shows how local behaviour can affect planetary health in the long term. While
individuals may not consider that their actions matter at the scale of the climate system, the aggregate
effect of a growing worldwide dependence on cars is likely to be a significant contributor to
climate change [37].
Figure 7. A stock-and-flow version of the co-effects structure of Figure 6. The graphical

conventions are those defined for Figure 1. The double-lined, double-ended arrows are
bi-flows representing net processes that can drive the levels of their affected stocks up
(inflow) or down (outflow). The variables labelled Public Health Difference and Air Quality
Difference represent the difference between the actual level of the controlled variables and
their respective goals.
Figure 8. A dynamic hypothesis concerning the interaction between car dependence and
climate change. The short parallel lines crossing the link from Atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations to Climate disruption indicate a delayed effect.
The feedback structures shown in Figures 6 to 8 illustrate why car dependence is maladaptive, at
least from the point of view of those concerned with long-term trends in human and planetary health.
Nevertheless, these considerations are not of immediate concern to many urban dwellers. Cars provide
a level of flexibility, independence, and social status that is highly valued. This, in large measure,
explains why such a strong dependence on the technology developed in the first place, and why it
continues to grow worldwide. The adaptive challenge is to identify urban leverage points that are
powerful enough to reverse this trend. And this requires an appreciation of the endogenous forces that
drive the dependence.
6. Discussion: Urban Leverage Points and Adaptive Capacity
The co-effects structure shown in Figures 6 and 7 captures one side of the urban adaptation story,
namely the potential stabilising force of policies designed to counteract growing car dependence.
Another side of the story involves the reinforcing feedback structures that currently act to increase car
dependence. Figures 8 and 9 (below) provide examples. While it may seem counterintuitive, these
growth structures also have the potential to reduce car dependence. The balancing loops of Figure 6
work to oppose changes in a communitys level of dependence. Reinforcing feedback loops are more
versatile. They can amplify changes in dependenceeither up or down. Such destabilising structures
are therefore potentially powerful leverage points. Here, as an example, we discuss the reinforcing
interactions that exist between car use and urban design.
Throughout the twentieth century cars have been a significant force in the evolution of cities [3841].
As cars became more affordable, the pattern of urban development reflected their impact on urban
lifestyles. Many families preferred to move away from the old inner city to free-standing houses in
new suburbs. Private cars made this migration possible. Then, as the city expanded beyond the reach
of established transport routes, cars became a necessity. They also played an enabling role in the
development of the large centralised shopping plazas that replaced the neighbourhood-scale shopping
precincts of the more densely organised inner city. Urban sprawl and car dependence fed off each
other in a reinforcing feedback loop [42,43].
Figure 9. The Adaptive Challenge. This causal loop diagram instantiates the feedback
structure of the Success to the Successful archetype. There are two reinforcing loops, R1
and R2, that work together to affect the extent to which individuals depend on cars. This
feedback system has contributed to the growth of car dependence in modern cities. The
challenge is to reverse this trend.
In Figure 9 we present a causal loop diagram that summarises key interactions between car use and
urban design. The reinforcing feedback structure shown in this diagram is an example of the Success
to the Successful system archetype. System archetypes are simple, generic feedback structures that
have been found to occur in a wide range of contexts [5,14,44]. The Success to the Successful
archetype captures the dynamics of the common situation where two entities (say, A and B) are
competing for limited resources. There are two possible outcomes. On the one hand, if A initially gains
more of the resources than B, it will be able to compete more strongly than B, further increasing its
share of the resources and so its competitive advantage. The reinforcing feedback loops work together
to amplify this disparity, eventually driving A to success and B to failure. On the other hand, if B
initially gains a greater share of the resources, the feedback loops will drive B to success and A to
failure. The rich get richer, and the poor get poorer.
In the version of the archetype shown in Figure 9 the competitors are two approaches to urban
designone that promotes active and public transport, and one that assumes that everyone will have
access to a car. In the case where car dependence increases over time the dynamical story told by
Figure 9 reads as follows:
Loop R1As the level of Individual dependence on private motor vehicles increases, it reduces
the pressure on urban designers to promote facilities for active and public transport. This pressure
reduction leads to cities with fewer such facilities, further increasing the need for individuals to depend
on carsand so on around the loop. Historically this reinforcing feedback process has driven car
dependence upwards over time.
Loop R2As the level of Individual dependence on private motor vehicles increases, so the
tendency for urban designers to assume that the majority of citizens have access to a car also increases.
This assumption leads to cities where access to a car is necessary for every-day operations, further
increasing the level of Individual dependence on private motor vehicles. As was the case for Loop
R1, this reinforcing process has increased car dependence in most cities.
Reinforcing structures like that shown in Figure 9 give rise to the dynamic phenomena of path
dependence and lock-in [45]. Loops R1 and R2 work together to drive city planning in one
direction or the othertowards either dominance of cars, or dominance of active and public transport.
How a city develops over time is path dependent. As soon as a bias toward one urban form or the other
emerges the reinforcing structures take hold and drive development further in that direction, thus
locking in the bias. Once that has happened it is difficult to see how to move the city over to the
alternative form. It is unlikely that the Figure 6 balancing loops alone will have the necessary power.
The city must first be moved to an unstable (tipping point) state, where both urban forms have
approximately equal weight. Depending on the approach taken, this task can appear to be extremely
difficult (even impossible)or very easy. It depends on whether or not an effective leverage point can
be identified.
Leverage points are places where small efforts (or precisely directed, simple strategies) produce
large results [5,14]. Their identification, in systems as complex as cities, requires a feel for the
dynamics of the system. That this can be done in practice has been demonstrated in the downtown area
of Portland, Oregon. According to Marshall [46]:
To have a cohesive downtown, or really even older neighbourhoods, a city has to have a
cohesive system of mass transit, and it has to make it dominant, or at least close to
dominant. Urbanism is a result of pressure. Its about putting people, activities, and
movement in a confined space. Only mass transit has the ability to raise the pressure to
enough people per square inch; cars release pressure as surely as puncturing a hole in a
tire.
Portland increased its urban pressure by prohibiting, in the mid-1970s, the construction
of more parking spaces. This was a master stroke, a strategy opposite that of most other
places. Other cities perversely required the construction of parking spaces. If you built an
office building, you were required to build an even larger parking box beside it to house
the cars. And even without laws, office builders would usually construct parking so their
customers or workers would have an easy way of getting to and from their offices or stores.
By prohibiting the construction of parking, Portland managed to reverse this dynamic. It
was a pressure builder. Any new businesses or stores or homes would have to make do
with the parking that was there. This pushed people onto the buses and eventually onto the
light rail line. Of course, without a growth boundary businesses and stores might have just
left downtown altogether. But with the growth boundary, it was not as easy to move
outward, even though a significant chunk of open land remained within it. The boundary
kept the pattern of development still relatively constrained.
Marshall goes on to explain how the Portland parking cap arose. The United States Environmental
Protection Agency required the city to find a way to deal with its poor air quality and level of
automobile emissions. Thus, their introduction of the parking cap was a result of concerns of the type
that drive the balancing co-effects loops of Figure 6. In terms of the Success to the Successful structure
of Figure 9, it reduced the extent to which Portland designers assumed that travellers to the downtown
area would use carsindeed, they moved to an urban design that strongly discouraged such travel.
This action reduced the level of individual dependence on cars and, in turn, led to an increase in the
extent to which their urban design promoted active and public transport. The R1-R2 structure then
worked to lock in the low-car-dependence state.
The area devoted to parking is clearly a potential leverage point in any car-dominated city. It affects
the cityscape in many ways [47] and has a powerful effect on individuals travel decisions and on the
attention that planners pay to active and public transport. As demonstrated in Portland, a parking cap
used in conjunction with a city growth limit is a relatively simple strategy that can drive large changes.
It is unfortunate that commercial pressures, exerted by the operators of parking facilities, have led to a
relaxation of the Portland parking cap in recent years [48]. In Australia, the City of Melbournes
Transport Strategy 2012-30 proposes a similar measure. It raises the possibility of capping the number
of long-term commuter car spaces available in new office developments. To complement this, there are
plans to expand the citys walking and bicycle network [49].
The above discussion has centred on feedback loops. Meadows [5] considers changes to the
strength of feedback loops as moderately effective leverage points. City planners ability to recognise
the existence and practical power of such leverage points can be enhanced if they can take a systems
approach. This points to another, potentially much more powerful, leverage point that is near the top of
the Meadows scalenamely, the paradigms, or mind-sets, from which urban systems arise. We
suggest that the development of a set of simple conceptual models, and discussion of their behaviour
and potential interactions, provides a practical way to push on this leverage point. It can help policy
makers and managers to see how to apply system dynamics principles, in a disciplined way, to capture
their experience-based intuitions about system behaviour. Such an approach empowers its practitioners
by increasing their ability to learn from experience in complex situations, and to apply their
accumulated knowledge in the construction of adaptive plans.
All adaptation decisions involve an attempt to predict the effectiveness of alternative actions. But,
prediction is not possible without some kind of dynamical model of how things might change as time
passes. A groups models-in-use will range from informal mental models, held by individual group
members, to formal computer models developed by professional modellers and made available to all
members of the group. Taken together, these causal models will constitute the groups understanding
of the dynamics of their system-of-interest. Some of this understanding will be shared, some of it
private. The shared understanding is central to groups adaptive capacity. It will be a key component of
their systemic understanding and so will enhance their ability to separate adaptive actions from
maladaptive actionsand to identify effective leverage points and decide which way to push them.
The main aim of modelling is not a model, but improved understanding. There is ample evidence
that the construction of conceptual models, such as those presented in this paper, is a practical way for
a group to expand their understanding of the range of things that can happen when humans take action
in complex systems. Such models become the basis for a powerful metaphorical understanding that
can be extended to a wide range of systems [19,50]. In addition, if the conceptual modelling process
described here is extended to the collaborative development and simulation of simple stock-and-flow
models, then the group can develop even deeper levels of understanding [5,13,14,5052].
While there is a growing awareness of the need for a systems approach to adaptation, at present few
communities are capable of taking such an approach. Indeed, as Sterman [53] has demonstrated, there
is a widespread lack of understanding of the dynamics of even very simple stock-and-flow structures.
This is a serious situation, but once it is recognised one thing becomes obviouswith such a low
base-line even a small increase in a communitys understanding of system dynamics can result in a
significant increase in their adaptive capacity.
7. Conclusions
In this paper we have described a practical, three-step approach to the development of simple
conceptual models that can be used to enhance a groups understanding of the dynamics of complex
managed systems. This approach involves moving from (a) an abstract system template, that
establishes a focus on a particular high-level aspect of the behaviour of human-environment systems,
through (b) the selection of a problem space that is tailored to match the type of management problem
of concern, to (c) a tightly defined conceptual model of a specific sub-system.
Conceptual models with simple feedback structures, like those discussed in this paper, can be
developed in a reasonable amount of time using step-by-step, system-dynamics-based approaches like
those followed in a CCM endeavour. If the members of an adaptive-planning group are to work
together on the development of causal models, then they must aim for models that are simple enough
to be built relatively quickly and that have understandable dynamics. A small set of such models can be
used to express hypotheses that capture key aspects of the dynamics of the groups system-of-interest.
Significant steps toward improved understanding can be made without connecting these models
together to build more complicated representations. The sub-systems described in Figures 6, 8 and 9
have a stock in common, Individual dependence on private motor vehicles, and so it is not difficult
to imagine the interactions that might take place between them. Discussion of such systemic
interactions can greatly increase a groups understanding of the behaviour of their system-of-interest,
and of system dynamics in general.
Clearly, an understanding of the dynamic hypotheses presented in Figures 6, 8 and 9 does not
constitute a full understanding of urban climate-health dynamics. Our argument is that the process of
constructing and discussing such conceptual models, following procedures like those described here, is
likely to help a group develop an improved systemic understanding and greater adaptive capacity.
Furthermore, conceptual models can provide an effective starting point for stock-and-flow
modelling. Working stock-and-flow models can be simulated to explore the implications of various
policies and adaptive strategies. Sensitivity tests can be run to estimate the relative importance of
various state-change processes, and to study cross-scale interactions and the way that accumulation
gives rise to policy inertia. Simulation experiments can help a group to test their intuitions concerning
potential leverage points for adaptation, and to determine which way to push them.
Practical systems-thinking approaches, like that outlined here, can play an important role in the
development of urban policy. An urban communitys capacity to maintain high levels of public health
and well-being, in the face of climate change, will ultimately depend on their ability to appreciate that
a range of maladaptive outcomes can flow from a given management decision. And that capacity, in
turn, will depend on the extent to which the community learns to see with system dynamics eyes.
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the Climate and Health Cluster which is funded by the CSIRO
Flagship Collaboration Fund. We are grateful to Will Steffen and Susan Thompson for workshop
presentations. We thank Hilary Bambrick, Guy Barnett, Keith Dear, Ferne Edwards, Sharon Friel,
Garry Glazebrook, Gillian Hall, Libby Hattersley, Bronwyn Isaacs, Jim Lyon, David Mason and Peter
Newman for their contributions, and two reviewers for helpful comments.
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
References and Notes
1. UN Population Division. World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. Data on Urban and
Rural Populations; Population Division, United Nations: New York, NY, USA, 2012. Available
online: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/CD-ROM/Urban-Rural-Population.htm (accessed on 3
May 2012).
2. McMichael, A.J.; Woodruff, R.E.; Hales, S. Climate change and health: Present and future risks.
Lancet 2008, 367, 859869.
3. Romero-Lankao, P.; Dodman, D. Cities in transition: Transforming urban centre from hotbeds of
GHG emission and vulnerability to seedbeds of sustainability and resilience. Curr. Opin. Environ.
Sustain. 2011, 3, 113120.
4. Battisti, D.S.; Naylor, R.L. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented
seasonal heat. Science 2009, 323, 240244.
5. Meadows, D. Thinking in Systems: A Primer; Chelsea Green Publishing: Vermont, VT, USA, 2008.
6. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fourth Assessment Report; IPCC: Cambridge,
UK, 2007.
7. Hess, J.; Malilay, J.; Parkinson, A. Climate change: The importance of place. Am. J. Prev. Med.
2008, 35, 468478.
8. Younger, M.; Morrow-Almeida, H.; Vindigni, S.; Dannenberg, A. The built environment, climate
change, and health: Opportunities for co-benefits. Am. J. Prev. Med. 2008, 35, 517526.
9. Kearns, A.; Beaty, M.; Barnett; G. A social-ecological perspective on health in urban
environments. NSW Public Health Bull. 2007, 18, 4850.
10. Beggs, P.; Bambrick, H. Is the global rise of asthma an early impact of anthropogenic climate
change? Environ. Health Perspect. 2005, 113, 915919.
11. Rizwan, A.M.; Dennis, L.Y.C.; Liu, C. A review of the generation, determination and mitigation
of Urban Heat Island. J. Environ. Sci. 2008, 20, 120128.
12. Bambrick, H.J.; Capon, A.G.; Barnett, G.B.; Beaty, R.M.; Burton, A.J. Climate change and health
in the urban environment: Adaptation opportunities in Australian cities. Asia Pac. J. Public
Health 2011, 23, S67S79.
13. Sterman, J.D. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World; Irwin
McGraw-Hill: Boston, MA, USA, 2000.
14. Senge, P.M. The Fifth Discipline, The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization; Random
House Australia: Sydney, Australia, 1992.
15. Here we use the phrase System Dynamics (capitalised) to refer to the discipline established by
Jay Forrester and his colleagues at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. We use the term
system dynamics when referring to the dynamics of a system.
16. Newell, B.; Wasson, R. Social System vs. Solar System: Why Policy Makers Need History. In
Conflict and Cooperation Related to International Water Resources: Historical Perspectives;
Castelein, S., Otte, A., Eds.; UNESCO Document SC.2002/WS/53; UNESCO: Grenoble, France,
2002; pp. 313.
17. Forrester, J.W. Industrial Dynamics; Productivity Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 1961.
18. Lakoff, G.; Johnson, M. Metaphors We Live By; University of Chicago Press: Chicago, IL,
USA, 1980.
19. Newell, B. Simple models, powerful ideas: Towards effective integrative practice. Glob. Environ.
Change 2012, in press.
20. Cronin, M.A.; Gonzalez, C.; Sterman, J.D. Why dont well-educated adults understand
accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens. Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis.
Process. 2009, 108, 116130.
21. Richardson, G.P. Reflections on the foundations of system dynamics. Syst. Dynam. Rev. 2011, 27,
219243.
22. Forrester, J.W. Urban Dynamics; Productivity Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 1969.
23. Newell, B.; Marsh, D.M.; Sharma, D. Enhancing the resilience of the Australian national
electricity market: Taking a systems approach in policy development. Ecol. Soc. 2011, 16, 15.
24. Baynes, T.M. Complexity in urban development and management, historical overview and
opportunities. J. Ind. Ecol. 2009, 13, 214227.
25. Proust, K.; Newell, B. Catchment and Community: Towards a Management-Focused Dynamical
Study of the ACT Water System; ACTEW Corporation: Canberra, Australia, 2006. Available
online: http://www.water.anu.edu.au/pdf/publications/Catchment%20and%20Community.pdf
(accessed on 6 June 2012).
26. Newell, B.; Proust, K. Collaborative conceptual modelling: Taking a systems approach to
adaptation in a changing world; ANU Working Paper; 2012, in preparation.
27. Newell, B.; Proust, K. I See How You Think: Using Influence Diagrams to Support Dialogue;
Australian National University (ANU) Centre for Dialogue: Canberra, Australia, 2009. Available
online: http://www.anu.edu.au/dialogue/2009/I%20See%20How%20You%20Think.pdf (accessed
on 6 June 2012).
28. Commonwealth of Australia. State of Australian Cities; Infrastructure Australia, Major Cities
Unit: Canberra, Australia, 2010.
29. Boyden, S. People and Nature: The Big Picture; Nature and Society Forum: Canberra,
Australia, 2005.
30. Campbell-Lendrum, D.; Bertollini, R.; Neira, M.; Ebi, K.; McMichael, A. Health and climate
change: A roadmap for applied research. Lancet 2009, 374, 19452026.
31. Barnett, J.; ONeill, S. Maladaptation. Glob. Environ. Change 2010, 20, 211213.
32. Cox, S. Losing Our Cool; The New Press: New York, NY, USA, 2010.
33. Barry, J.M. Rising Tide; Simon and Schuster: New York, NY, USA, 1997.
34. Australian Government. Our Cities, Our FutureA National Urban Policy for a Productive,
Sustainable and Liveable Future; Department of Infrastructure and Transport: Canberra,
Australia, 2010.
35. Dora, C.; Phillips, M. Transport, Environment and Health; European Series, No. 89; WHO
Regional Publications: Rome, Italy, 2000.
36. Spickett, J.; Brown, H.L.; Rumchev, R. Climate change and air quality: The potential impact on
health. Asia Pac. J. Public Health 2011, 23, S37S45.
37. Unger, N.; Bond, T.C.; Wang, J.S.; Koch, D.M.; Menon, S.; Shindell, D.T.; Bauer, S. Attribution
of climate forcing to economic sectors. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2010, 107, 33823387.
38. Rae, D.W. City: Urbanism and Its End; Yale University Press: New Haven, CT, USA, 2003.
39. Davison, G.; Yelland, S. Car Wars: How the Car Won Our Hearts and Conquered Our Cities;
Allen & Unwin: Crows Nest, Australia, 2004.
40. Lee, R. Transport, an Australian Story; University of New South Wales Press: Sydney,
Australia, 2010.
41. Newman, P.; Jennings, I. Cities as Sustainable Ecosystems, Principles and Practices; Island
Press: Washington, DC, USA, 2008.
42. Frumkin, H.; Frank, L.; Jackson, R. Urban Sprawl and Public Health. Designing, Planning and
Building for Healthy Communities; Island Press: Washington, DC, USA, 2004.
43. Bruegmann, R. Sprawl: A Compact History; University of Chicago Press: Chicago, IL,
USA, 2005.
44. Kim, D.H. System Archetypes I: Diagnosing Systemic Issues and Designing High-Leverage
Interventions; Pegasus Communications: Waltham, MA, USA, 2000.
45. Arthur, W.B. Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy; University of Michigan
Press: Ann Arbor, MI, USA, 1994.
46. Marshall, A. How Cities Work: Suburbs, Sprawl and the Roads not Taken; University of Texas
Press: Austin, TX, USA, 2009; pp.183184.
47. Alexander, C.; Ishikawa, S.; Silverstein, M.; Jacobson, M.; Fiksdahl-King, I.; Angel, S. A Pattern
Language; Oxford University Press: New York, NY, USA, 1978.
48. Jaquiss, N. Lots of trouble: The turf war over Portlands parking spaces heats up. Willamette
Week News, 4 June 2003. Available online: http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-2124-
lots_of_trouble.html (accessed on 3 May 2012).
49. City of Melbourne. Transport Strategy 2012: Planning for Future Growth; City of Melbourne:
Melbourne, Australia, 2012. Available online: http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/futuregrowth
(accessed on 3 May 2012).
50. Sawin, B.; Hamilton, H.; Jone, A.; Rice, P.; Seville, D.; Sweitzer, S.; Wright, D. Commodity
Systems Challenges: Moving Sustainability into the Mainstream of Natural Resource Economies;
The Sustainability Institute: Vermont, VT, USA, 2003.
51. Vennix, J.A.C. Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics;
John Wiley & Sons: Chichester, UK, 1996.
52. Ghaffarzadegan, N.; Lyneis, J.; Richardson, G.P. How small system dynamics models can help
the public policy process. Syst. Dynam. Rev. 2011, 27, 2244.
53. Sterman, J.D. Risk communication on climate: Mental models and mass balance. Science 2008,
322, 532533.
2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).

Human Health and Climate Change: Leverage Points For Adaptation in Urban Environments

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Human Health and Climate Change: Leverage Points For Adaptation in Urban Environments

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Human Health and Climate Change: Leverage Points For Adaptation in Urban Environments

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2012, 9, 2134-2158; doi:10.

Human Health and Climate Change: Leverage Points for

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected];

Received: 3 May 2012 / Accepted: 28 May 2012 / Published: 6 June 2012

2. Elements of a System Dynamics Approach

Figure 1. An illustrative stock-and-flow feedback structure. The rectangles represent

3. System TemplateCo-Effects in Urban Systems

Figure 2. An hypothesis concerning selected aspects of the causal structure of urban

Figure 3. Boydens Biosensitivity Triangle (modified to reflect our focus on human

Table 1. The stocks of Figure 4.

Table 2. The causal links of Figure 4.

4. The Problem SpaceMaladaptive Technology Dependence

Figure 5. An intermediate-level hypothesis concerning technology dependence in urban

Table 3. The causal links of Figure 5.

Table 4. Classification of adaptation situations.

5. System-of-InterestDependence on Private Motor Vehicles

Figure 6. A causal loop diagram concerning selected co-effects of vehicle-dependence in

Table 5. The causal links of Figure 6.

Figure 7. A stock-and-flow version of the co-effects structure of Figure 6. The graphical

6. Discussion: Urban Leverage Points and Adaptive Capacity

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

References and Notes

You might also like