Chapter 1

What is Simulation?
 Simulation Is ...
Very broad term, set of problems/approaches
Generally, imitation of a system via computer
Involves a model validity?
Dont even aspire to analytic solution
Dont get exact results (bad)
Allows for complex, realistic models (good)
Approximate answer to exact problem is better
than exact answer to approximate problem
Consistently ranked as most useful, powerful of
mathematical-modeling approaches
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 Some Application Areas
Manufacturing scheduling, inventory
Staffing personal-service operations
Banks, fast food, theme parks, Post Office, ...
Distribution and logistics
Health care emergency, operating rooms
Computer systems
Telecommunications
Military
Public policy
Emergency planning
Courts, prisons, probation/parole
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 Systems
Physical facility/process, actual or planned
Study its performance
Measure
Improve
Design (if it doesnt exist)
Maybe control in real time
Sometimes possible to play with the system
But sometimes impossible to do so
Doesnt exist
Disruptive, expensive
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 Models
Abstraction/simplification of the system used as
a proxy for the system itself
Can try wide-ranging ideas in the model
Make your mistakes on the computer where they dont
count, rather for real where they do count
Issue of model validity
Two types of models
Physical (iconic)
Logical/Mathematical quantitative and logical
assumptions, approximations
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 What Do You Do with a Logical
Model?
If model is simple enough, use traditional
mathematics (queueing theory, differential
equations, linear programming) to get answers
Nice in the sense that you get exact answers to the model
But might involve many simplifying assumptions to make
the model analytically tractable validity??
Many complex systems require complex models
for validity simulation needed

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 Computer Simulation
Methods for studying a wide variety of models of
real-world systems
Use numerical evaluation on computer
Use software to imitate the systems operations and
characteristics, often over time
In practice, is the process of designing and
creating computerized model of system and
doing numerical computer-based experiments
Real power application to complex systems
Simulation can tolerate complex models
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 Popularity
M.S. grads, CWRU O.R. Department (1978)
Asked about value after graduation; rankings:
1. Statistical analysis, 2. Forecasting, 3. Systems analysis, 4.
Information systems
5. Simulation
137 large firms (1979)
1. Statistical analysis (93% used it)
2. Simulation (84%)
Followed by LP, PERT/CPM, inventory, NLP

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 Popularity (contd.)
(A)IIE, O.R. division members (1980)
First in utility and interest: Simulation
But first in familiarity: LP (simulation was second)
Longitudinal study of corporate practice (1983,
1989, 1993)
1. Statistical analysis
2. Simulation
Survey of such surveys (1989)
Consistent heavy use of simulation

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 Advantages of Simulation
Flexibility to model things as they are (even if
messy and complicated)
Avoid looking where the light is (a morality play):
Youre walking along in the dark and see someone on hands and knees
searching the ground under a street light.
You: Whats wrong? Can I help you?
Other person: I dropped my car keys and cant find them.
You: Oh, so you dropped them around here, huh?
Other person: No, I dropped them over there. (Points into the darkness.)
You: Then why are you looking here?
Other person: Because this is where the light is.

Allows uncertainty, nonstationarity in modeling

The only thing thats for sure: nothing is for sure
Danger of ignoring system variability
Model validity
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 Advantages of Simulation (contd.)
Advances in computing/cost ratios
Estimated that 75% of computing power is used for various
kinds of simulations
Dedicated machines (e.g., real-time shop-floor control)
Advances in simulation software
Far easier to use (GUIs)
No longer as restrictive in modeling constructs
(hierarchical, down to C)
Statistical design & analysis capabilities

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 The Bad News
Dont get exact answers, only approximations,
estimates
Also true of many other modern methods
Can bound errors by machine roundoff
Get random output (RIRO) from stochastic
simulations
Statistical design, analysis of simulation experiments
Exploit: noise control, replicability, sequential sampling,
variance-reduction techniques
Catch: standard statistical methods seldom work

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 Different Kinds of Simulation
Static vs. Dynamic
Does time have a role in the model?
Continuous-change vs. Discrete-change
Can the state change continuously or only at discrete
points in time?
Deterministic vs. Stochastic
Is everything for sure or is there uncertainty?
Most operational models:
Dynamic, Discrete-change, Stochastic

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 Simulation by Hand:
The Buffon Needle Problem

Estimate (George Louis Leclerc, c. 1733)

Toss needle of length l onto table with stripes d
(>l) apart
P (needle crosses a line) =
Repeat; tally = proportion of times a line is
crossed
Estimate by
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 Why Toss Needles?
Buffon needle problem seems silly now, but it has
important simulation features:
Experiment to estimate something hard to compute exactly
(in 1733)
Randomness, so estimate will not be exact; estimate the
error in the estimate
Replication (the more the better) to reduce error
Sequential sampling to control error keep tossing until
probable error in estimate is small enough
Variance reduction (Buffon Cross)

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 Using Computers to Simulate
General-purpose languages (FORTRAN)
Tedious, low-level, error-prone
But, almost complete flexibility
Support packages
Subroutines for list processing, bookkeeping, time advance
Widely distributed, widely modified
Spreadsheets
Usually static models
Financial scenarios, distribution sampling, SQC

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 Using Computers to Simulate (contd.)
Simulation languages
GPSS, SIMSCRIPT, SLAM, SIMAN
Popular, in wide use today
Learning curve for features, effective use, syntax
High-level simulators
Very easy, graphical interface
Domain-restricted (manufacturing, communications)
Limited flexibility model validity?

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 Where Arena Fits In
Hierarchical structure Higher User-Created Templates
Commonly used constructs
Company-specific processes
Multiple levels of Company-specific templates
etc.
A single
graphical user
modeling interface

Vertical Solutions
consistent at
Can mix different Application Solution Templates
Call$im
any level of
modeling
modeling levels together BP$im
etc.

in the same model

Often, start high then go Common Panel

Professional Edition
Many common modeling constructs

lower as needed Very accessible, easy to use

Arena Template
Reasonable flexibility
Level of

Modeling

Get ease-of-use Support, Transfer Panels

advantage of Access to more detailed modeling for greater

Standard Edition
flexibility

simulators without

SIMAN Template
sacrificing modeling Blocks, Elements Panels
All the flexibility of the SIMAN simulation
language
flexibility
User-Written Visual Basic, C/C++, FORTRAN
Code
The ultimate in flexibility
Lower C/C++/FORTRAN requires compiler

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 When Simulations are Used
Uses of simulation have evolved with hardware,
software
The early years (1950s-1960s)
Very expensive, specialized tool to use
Required big computers, special training
Mostly in FORTRAN (or even Assembler)
Processing cost as high as $1000/hour for a sub-286 level
machine

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 When Simulations are Used (contd.)
The formative years (1970s-early 1980s)
Computers got faster, cheaper
Value of simulation more widely recognized
Simulation software improved, but they were still languages
to be learned, typed, batch processed
Often used to clean up disasters in auto, aerospace
industries
Car plant; heavy demand for certain model
Line underperforming
Simulated, problem identified
But demand had dried up simulation was too late
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 When Simulations are Used (contd.)
The recent past (late 1980s)
Microcomputer power
Software expanded into GUIs, animation
Wider acceptance across more areas
Traditional manufacturing applications
Services
Health care
Business processes
Still mostly in large firms
Often a simulation is part of the specs

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 When Simulations are Used (contd.)
The present
Proliferating into smaller firms
Becoming a standard tool
Being used earlier in design phase
Real-time control
The future
Exploiting interoperability of operating systems
Specialized templates for industries, firms
Automated statistical design, analysis

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