Monte-Carlo Simulation Illustrated

Beta Distribution

Duration Estimates
Task Description Predecessors Optimistic Pessimistic
A Requirements Analysis none 2 14
B Programming A 4 12
C Hardware acquisition A 2 13
D User training A 12 18
E Implementation B, C 3 7
F Testing E 3 7
END End of project D, F 0 0

Task Duration Early Latest Total

Task (Beta Distribution) Start Finish Slack
A 12.91 0 12.91 0.00
B 5.06 12.91 19.91 1.93
C 7.00 12.91 19.91 0.00
D 14.10 12.91 30.36 3.35
E 5.93 19.91 25.84 0.00
F 4.52 25.84 30.36 0.00
END 0.00 30.36 30.36 0.00

PERT Expected Duration = 23.83 Expected CP =

PERT Variance = 8.250

Run Project Duration t(B) t(C) t(D)

1 30.36 0 1 0
2 29.97 1 0 0
3 25.37 1 0 0
4 30.87 0 1 0
5 35.26 0 1 0
6 29.31 0 1 0
7 31.27 0 1 0
8 27.24 0 1 0
9 31.65 1 0 0
10 30.99 0 1 0
11 30.50 0 1 0
12 33.67 1 0 0
13 26.37 1 0 0
14 26.84 0 0 1
15 25.28 0 1 0
16 28.26 1 0 0
17 32.51 1 0 0
18 24.89 0 0 1
19 31.92 1 0 0
20 31.14 1 0 0
21 26.84 1 0 0
22 20.97 0 1 0
23 25.65 1 0 0
24 24.76 0 1 0
25 32.51 1 0 0
26 18.55 0 0 1
27 25.28 1 0 0
28 20.30 0 0 1
29 25.86 1 0 0
30 29.36 1 0 0
31 32.22 1 0 0
32 32.48 0 1 0
33 33.73 0 1 0
34 26.44 0 1 0
35 29.18 1 0 0
36 28.51 1 0 0
37 35.09 0 1 0
38 27.92 1 0 0
39 36.00 0 1 0
40 22.34 1 0 0
41 23.41 1 0 0
42 30.22 1 0 0
43 23.42 1 0 0
44 33.79 1 0 0
45 34.35 0 1 0
46 21.04 0 0 1
47 30.04 0 1 0
48 26.72 0 1 0
49 27.46 1 0 0
50 24.44 1 0 0
51 25.29 1 0 0
52 17.89 0 0 1
53 25.08 0 1 0
54 31.50 1 0 0
55 25.11 0 1 0
56 31.34 1 0 0
57 33.52 1 0 0
58 18.83 1 0 0
59 20.97 1 0 0
60 36.10 1 0 0
61 32.82 0 1 0
62 35.97 0 1 0
63 29.94 1 0 0
64 31.21 1 0 0
65 27.17 1 0 0
66 27.00 1 0 0
67 27.91 0 1 0
68 25.69 0 1 0
69 34.15 1 0 0
 70 31.56 0 1 0
71 21.75 1 0 0
72 31.75 0 1 0
73 27.99 1 0 0
74 22.53 1 0 0
75 30.34 0 1 0
76 28.81 0 1 0
77 29.16 1 0 0
78 29.29 0 1 0
79 30.04 0 1 0
80 23.18 1 0 0
81 25.37 1 0 0
82 35.70 0 1 0
83 24.00 1 0 0
84 26.43 0 0 1
85 27.89 1 0 0
86 26.93 0 1 0
87 28.68 1 0 0
88 34.87 0 1 0
89 24.48 1 0 0
90 32.72 0 1 0
91 25.88 0 0 1
92 31.75 0 1 0
93 23.58 1 0 0
94 29.96 0 1 0
95 31.18 1 0 0
96 25.85 1 0 0
97 25.96 0 0 1
98 29.16 0 1 0
99 35.45 0 1 0
100 22.27 1 0 0
101 28.58 0 1 0
102 23.07 0 1 0
103 29.00 1 0 0
104 26.57 0 1 0
105 23.71 0 1 0
106 29.41 1 0 0
107 23.67 0 1 0
108 29.91 0 1 0
109 26.97 1 0 0
110 33.34 1 0 0
111 26.13 1 0 0
112 33.43 1 0 0
113 25.18 0 1 0
114 32.76 1 0 0
115 27.71 0 0 1
116 18.63 1 0 0
117 30.21 0 1 0
118 26.15 0 1 0
119 33.43 1 0 0
120 28.39 1 0 0
121 25.63 0 1 0
122 29.66 0 1 0
123 21.61 1 0 0
124 33.62 0 1 0
125 29.91 0 1 0
126 29.56 0 1 0
127 20.27 0 0 1
128 27.03 1 0 0
129 25.32 1 0 0
130 17.59 1 0 0
131 27.43 1 0 0
132 27.76 0 0 1
133 19.87 0 0 1
134 21.00 1 0 0
135 25.79 1 0 0
136 34.60 1 0 0
137 23.78 0 0 1
138 23.09 0 0 1
139 23.83 0 1 0
140 29.88 1 0 0
141 29.15 1 0 0
142 22.69 0 0 1
143 27.13 1 0 0
144 29.67 1 0 0
145 29.14 1 0 0
146 32.14 0 1 0
147 20.39 0 1 0
148 32.20 1 0 0
149 30.78 0 1 0
150 25.19 1 0 0
151 28.76 0 1 0
152 25.15 0 1 0
153 35.62 1 0 0
154 26.38 1 0 0
155 30.63 0 1 0
156 30.78 0 1 0
157 23.93 1 0 0
158 32.51 1 0 0
159 26.79 0 1 0
160 22.69 0 1 0
161 24.79 0 1 0
162 20.50 1 0 0
163 28.06 1 0 0
164 29.60 0 1 0
165 25.25 0 1 0
166 25.07 0 1 0
167 31.72 1 0 0
168 34.87 0 1 0
169 30.44 0 1 0
 170 26.29 1 0 0
171 25.70 1 0 0
172 22.80 0 1 0
173 26.80 0 1 0
174 25.32 1 0 0
175 24.98 1 0 0
176 30.89 0 1 0
177 27.87 0 1 0
178 23.18 1 0 0
179 26.55 1 0 0
180 31.41 1 0 0
181 23.32 1 0 0
182 22.53 1 0 0
183 26.37 1 0 0
184 22.93 0 1 0
185 31.05 1 0 0
186 29.44 1 0 0
187 15.39 0 0 1
188 24.09 1 0 0
189 29.94 1 0 0
190 22.02 1 0 0
191 18.23 1 0 0
192 28.38 0 0 1
193 26.40 0 1 0
194 28.57 1 0 0
195 31.76 0 1 0
196 27.22 0 1 0
197 28.63 0 1 0
198 24.94 0 1 0
199 27.45 0 1 0
200 31.18 0 1 0
Ave 27.66 50.5% 40.5% 9.0%
Var 18.045

Project Makespan Lower Limit Upper Limit

95% Confidence interval 27.07 28.25
99% Confidence interval 26.89 28.43

36.10 Project Makespan Range Cum Freq Freq

1
15.39 15.39 1 1
0.9 17.46 7 6
2.0706422079
0.8 19.53 16 9
21.60 36 20
0.7
23.67 67 31
0.6 25.74 101 34
0.5 27.81 132 31
0.4 29.88 169 37
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
31.95 187 18
0.3
34.02 199 12
0.2 36.10
0.1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Project Makespan
on Estimates
Likely Random (1) Random (2) Random (3) Random (4) TR1 X1
6 0.30 0.31 0.14 0.98 0.01 0.47
7 0.82 1.00 0.96 0.77 0.61 0.05
8 0.73 0.91 0.87 0.10 0.06 0.31
14 0.67 0.29 0.13 0.32 0.01 0.53
5 0.68 0.12 0.22 0.10 0.00 0.69
4 0.81 0.83 0.31 0.60 0.12 0.23
0 0.42 0.74 0.07 0.15 0.00 0.61

Expected
Duration Variance
6.67 4.00
7.33 1.78
7.83 3.36
14.33 1.00
5.00 0.44
4.33 0.44
0.00 0.00

{A, C, E, F, END}

t(E) t(F)
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
 1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
0 0
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
91.0% 91.0%

10 11
10 11
Random (1) Random (2) TR2 X2 X
0.87 0.93 0.80 0.05 0.91
0.36 0.54 0.20 0.35 0.13
0.25 0.73 0.18 0.37 0.45
0.71 0.01 0.01 0.99 0.35
0.92 0.34 0.31 0.25 0.73
0.62 0.29 0.18 0.37 0.38
0.86 0.42 0.36 0.22 0.74
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
0 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
0 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 0 0
0 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
0 0 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
 Monte-Carlo Simulation Illustrated
Uniform Distribution

Duration Estimates
Task Description Predecessors Optimistic Pessimistic Lkely
A Requirements Analysis none 2 14 6
B Programming A 4 12 7
C Hardware acquisition A 2 13 8
D User training A 12 18 14
E Implementation B, C 3 7 5
F Testing E 3 7 4
END End of project D, F 0 0 0

Task Duration Early Latest Total Expected

Task (Uniform Dist) Start Finish Slack Duration
A 10.10 0 10.10 0.00 6.67
B 11.08 10.10 21.18 0.00 7.33
C 6.39 10.10 21.18 4.68 7.83
D 12.42 10.10 33.49 10.97 14.33
E 5.50 21.18 26.68 0.00 5.00
F 6.81 26.68 33.49 0.00 4.33
END 0.00 33.49 33.49 0.00 0.00

PERT Expected Duration = 23.83 Expected CP{A, C, E, F, END}

PERT Variance = 8.250

Run Project Duration t(B) t(C) t(D) t(E)

1 33.49 1 0 0 1
2 33.49 1 0 0 1
3 33.49 1 0 0 1
4 33.49 1 0 0 1
5 33.49 1 0 0 1
6 33.49 1 0 0 1
7 33.49 1 0 0 1
8 33.49 1 0 0 1
9 33.49 1 0 0 1
10 33.49 1 0 0 1
11 33.49 1 0 0 1
12 33.49 1 0 0 1
13 33.49 1 0 0 1
14 33.49 1 0 0 1
15 33.49 1 0 0 1
16 33.49 1 0 0 1
17 33.49 1 0 0 1
18 33.49 1 0 0 1
19 33.49 1 0 0 1
20 33.49 1 0 0 1
21 33.49 1 0 0 1
22 33.49 1 0 0 1
23 33.49 1 0 0 1
24 33.49 1 0 0 1
25 33.49 1 0 0 1
26 33.49 1 0 0 1
27 33.49 1 0 0 1
28 33.49 1 0 0 1
29 33.49 1 0 0 1
30 33.49 1 0 0 1
31 33.49 1 0 0 1
32 33.49 1 0 0 1
33 33.49 1 0 0 1
34 33.49 1 0 0 1
35 33.49 1 0 0 1
36 33.49 1 0 0 1
37 33.49 1 0 0 1
38 33.49 1 0 0 1
39 33.49 1 0 0 1
40 33.49 1 0 0 1
41 33.49 1 0 0 1
42 33.49 1 0 0 1
43 33.49 1 0 0 1
44 33.49 1 0 0 1
45 33.49 1 0 0 1
46 33.49 1 0 0 1
47 33.49 1 0 0 1
48 33.49 1 0 0 1
49 33.49 1 0 0 1
50 33.49 1 0 0 1
51 33.49 1 0 0 1
52 33.49 1 0 0 1
53 33.49 1 0 0 1
54 33.49 1 0 0 1
55 33.49 1 0 0 1
56 33.49 1 0 0 1
57 33.49 1 0 0 1
58 33.49 1 0 0 1
59 33.49 1 0 0 1
60 33.49 1 0 0 1
61 33.49 1 0 0 1
62 33.49 1 0 0 1
63 33.49 1 0 0 1
64 33.49 1 0 0 1
65 33.49 1 0 0 1
66 33.49 1 0 0 1
67 33.49 1 0 0 1
68 33.49 1 0 0 1
69 33.49 1 0 0 1
70 33.49 1 0 0 1
71 33.49 1 0 0 1
72 33.49 1 0 0 1
73 33.49 1 0 0 1
74 33.49 1 0 0 1
75 33.49 1 0 0 1
76 33.49 1 0 0 1
77 33.49 1 0 0 1
78 33.49 1 0 0 1
79 33.49 1 0 0 1
80 33.49 1 0 0 1
81 33.49 1 0 0 1
82 33.49 1 0 0 1
83 33.49 1 0 0 1
84 33.49 1 0 0 1
85 33.49 1 0 0 1
86 33.49 1 0 0 1
87 33.49 1 0 0 1
88 33.49 1 0 0 1
89 33.49 1 0 0 1
90 33.49 1 0 0 1
91 33.49 1 0 0 1
92 33.49 1 0 0 1
93 33.49 1 0 0 1
94 33.49 1 0 0 1
95 33.49 1 0 0 1
96 33.49 1 0 0 1
97 33.49 1 0 0 1
98 33.49 1 0 0 1
99 33.49 1 0 0 1
100 33.49 1 0 0 1
101 33.49 1 0 0 1
102 33.49 1 0 0 1
103 33.49 1 0 0 1
104 33.49 1 0 0 1
105 33.49 1 0 0 1
106 33.49 1 0 0 1
107 33.49 1 0 0 1
108 33.49 1 0 0 1
109 33.49 1 0 0 1
110 33.49 1 0 0 1
111 33.49 1 0 0 1
112 33.49 1 0 0 1
113 33.49 1 0 0 1
114 33.49 1 0 0 1
115 33.49 1 0 0 1
116 33.49 1 0 0 1
117 33.49 1 0 0 1
118 33.49 1 0 0 1
119 33.49 1 0 0 1
120 33.49 1 0 0 1
121 33.49 1 0 0 1
122 33.49 1 0 0 1
123 33.49 1 0 0 1
124 33.49 1 0 0 1
125 33.49 1 0 0 1
126 33.49 1 0 0 1
127 33.49 1 0 0 1
128 33.49 1 0 0 1
129 33.49 1 0 0 1
130 33.49 1 0 0 1
131 33.49 1 0 0 1
132 33.49 1 0 0 1
133 33.49 1 0 0 1
134 33.49 1 0 0 1
135 33.49 1 0 0 1
136 33.49 1 0 0 1
137 33.49 1 0 0 1
138 33.49 1 0 0 1
139 33.49 1 0 0 1
140 33.49 1 0 0 1
141 33.49 1 0 0 1
142 33.49 1 0 0 1
143 33.49 1 0 0 1
144 33.49 1 0 0 1
145 33.49 1 0 0 1
146 33.49 1 0 0 1
147 33.49 1 0 0 1
148 33.49 1 0 0 1
149 33.49 1 0 0 1
150 33.49 1 0 0 1
151 33.49 1 0 0 1
152 33.49 1 0 0 1
153 33.49 1 0 0 1
154 33.49 1 0 0 1
155 33.49 1 0 0 1
156 33.49 1 0 0 1
157 33.49 1 0 0 1
158 33.49 1 0 0 1
159 33.49 1 0 0 1
160 33.49 1 0 0 1
161 33.49 1 0 0 1
162 33.49 1 0 0 1
163 33.49 1 0 0 1
164 33.49 1 0 0 1
165 33.49 1 0 0 1
166 33.49 1 0 0 1
167 33.49 1 0 0 1
168 33.49 1 0 0 1
169 33.49 1 0 0 1
170 33.49 1 0 0 1
171 33.49 1 0 0 1
172 33.49 1 0 0 1
173 33.49 1 0 0 1
174 33.49 1 0 0 1
175 33.49 1 0 0 1
176 33.49 1 0 0 1
177 33.49 1 0 0 1
178 33.49 1 0 0 1
179 33.49 1 0 0 1
180 33.49 1 0 0 1
181 33.49 1 0 0 1
182 33.49 1 0 0 1
183 33.49 1 0 0 1
184 33.49 1 0 0 1
185 33.49 1 0 0 1
186 33.49 1 0 0 1
187 33.49 1 0 0 1
188 33.49 1 0 0 1
189 33.49 1 0 0 1
190 33.49 1 0 0 1
191 33.49 1 0 0 1
192 33.49 1 0 0 1
193 33.49 1 0 0 1
194 33.49 1 0 0 1
195 33.49 1 0 0 1
196 33.49 1 0 0 1
197 33.49 1 0 0 1
198 33.49 1 0 0 1
199 33.49 1 0 0 1
200 33.49 1 0 0 1
Ave 33.49 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Var 0.000

Project Makespan Lower Limit Upper Limit

95% Confidence interval 33.49 33.49
99% Confidence interval 33.49 33.49

33.49 Project Makespan Range Cum Freq Freq

1 0
33.49 33.49 0
0.9 33.49 0 0
0
0.8 33.49 0 0
33.49 0 0
0.7
33.49 0 0
0.6 33.49 0 0
0.5 33.49 0 0
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4 33.49 0 0
33.49 0 0
0.3
33.49 0 0
0.2 33.49
0.1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Project Makespan
 Random #
0.67
0.88
0.40
0.07
0.63
0.95
0.96

Variance
4.00
1.78
3.36
1.00
0.44
0.44
0.00

A, C, E, F, END}

t(F)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
100.0%
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
 TaskB
Programming
TaskE
Implementation

TaskF
TaskC testing
Start TaskA
requirement hardware
s acquiition
analysis

TaskD
User
uwer
training

Pessimistic
Critical time Expected
Task Description estimate, t duration m
p
tp - m (tp - m) 2
Requirements
A analysis 14 6.67 7.33 53.73
Hardware
C acquisition 13 7.83 5.17 26.73
E Implementation 7 5 2 4.00
F Testing 7 4.33 2.67 7.13
91.59
TaskF
testing

Project End
Buffer

9.57 Project Buffer

 Classic PERT Example #1
TaskB
Programming

TaskE
Implementation

TaskA TaskC
Start Requirements Hardware TaskF
Analysis Acquisition Testing

End
TaskD
User
Training

Duration Estimates Expected

Task Description Predecessors Optimistic Pessimistic Lkely Duration Variance
A Requirements Analysis none 2 14 6 6.67 4.00
B Programming A 4 12 7 7.33 1.78
C Hardware acquisition A 2 13 8 7.83 3.36
D User training A 12 18 14 14.33 1.00
E Implementation B, C 3 7 5 5.00 0.44
F Testing E 3 7 4 4.33 0.44
END End of project D, F 0 0 0 0.00 0.00

Expected
Task Path Early Start Variance Due Date Zi Pr(zi)
Start-A 6.67 4.00 6 -0.33 36.9%
Start-A-C 14.50 7.36 15 0.18 57.3%
Start-A-C-E 19.50 7.81 20 0.18 57.1%
Start-A-C-E-F-End 23.83 8.25 25 0.41 65.8%

Classic PERT Results

PERT Expected Duration = 23.83 Expected CP = {Start, A, C, E, F, End}
PERT Variance = 8.250