The Baby Boom Cohort in The United States: 2012 To 2060
The Baby Boom Cohort in The United States: 2012 To 2060
The Baby Boom Cohort in The United States: 2012 To 2060
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009
20
15
Baby boom
10
-5
-10 I I I I I I I I I I
1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009
30
25
20
Baby boom
15
10
0 I I I I I I I I I I
1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, 2005; Martin et al., 2012; Martin et al., 2013; Hamilton and Sutton, 2013.
90 Millions
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Note: Data for 1946 to 2012 are population estimates (purple bars). Values for 2013 and beyond are population projections (green bars).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1946 to 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National Projections.
Figure 3.
Population in the Baby Boom Ages in the United States by
Nativity Status: 1950 to 2010
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950 to 2000 Decennial Censuses (Gibson and Jung, 2006) and 2010 American Community Survey.
Figure 4.
Annual Growth Rate of the Population in the Baby Boom Ages: 1946 to 2060
Percent change
160
Largest percent
140
increase: 1946 to 1947
120
100
80
60
40
Largest percent
20
decrease: 2059 to 2060
0
-20
-40 I I I I I I I I
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1946 to 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National Projections.
Percent
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2060
Female Male
Percent
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0 I I I I I I I I
1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2060
Note: Data for 1946 to 2012 are population estimates. Values for 2013 and beyond are population projections.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1946 to 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National Projections.
mortality rates translate into sex CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE age structure of the population. A
differences in the older population, AND DEPENDENCY comparison of the population pyra-
where women outnumber men. mid from 1945, 1 year prior to the
Figure 6 demonstrates the impact
onset of the baby boom, and 1965,
that the baby boom cohort has had,
1 year after the baby boom ended,
and will continue to have, on the
1945 1965
100+ 100+
95 Male Female 95 Male Female
90 90
85 85
80 80
75 75
70 70
65 65
60 60
55 55
50 50
45 45
40 40
35 35
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10
10 Baby boom
5 5
0 0
3 2 1 0 1 2 3 3 2 1 0 1 2 3
1990 2012
100+ 100+
95 Male Female 95 Male Female
90 90
85 85
80 80
75 75
70 70
65 65
60 60
55 55 Baby boom
50 50
45 45
40 40
35
35
Baby boom
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
3 2 1 0 1 2 3 3 2 1 0 1 2 3
2030 2060
100+
100+
Male Female 95 Male Female
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75 Baby boom
70
Baby boom 70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
3 2 1 0 1 2 3
3 2 1 0 1 2 3
Note: Data for 1945 to 2012 are population estimates. Values for 2030 and 2060 are population projections. Estimates for 1945 and 1965
were available by single year of age for ages 0 to 84 with those aged 85 and over aggregated into one category. The distribution of the
population 85 years and over from the 1950 Census was used to expand the estimates for 1945 into single year of age through 100+.
Distributions from the 1950 and 1960 Censuses were used to expand the estimates for 1965 to single year of age through 100+.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1945 to 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National Projections.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National Projections.
Beginning in 1945, the youth ratio declined to just under 37, projected to remain just below 40
dependency ratio steadily increased where it is projected to remain rela- through 2060.
until it reached a peak level in 1964 tively stable through 2060.
As further evidence of the long-
of almost 67 children aged 0 to 17
Trends in the old-age dependency term influence that the baby boom
for every 100 adults aged 18 to
ratio are also driven in large part by cohort has had on the age structure
64. This peak corresponds with the
the aging of the baby boom cohort. of the U.S. population, one need
year that the last baby boomers
Between 1945 and 2010, the old- only compare the shape of the
were born, which is also the year
age dependency ratio increased total dependency ratio with the
that the baby boom cohort began
gradually from 12 older-age adults shapes of the youth and old age
to enter the working ages.
for every 100 working-age adults dependency ratios. In any given
As the baby boomers transitioned in 1945 to almost 21 older-age year where the baby boomers are
into the working ages, the youth adults for every 100 in the working considered a dependent population,
dependency ratio declined. This ages in 2010. This increase reflects either under the age of 18 or over
decline continued through the late- increased longevity for the older the age of 65, the total dependency
1980s, at which point the birth of population. Much larger increases ratio parallels the line that con-
the echo boomers contributed to are projected for the old-age depen- tains the baby boom population.
a small increase in youth depen- dency ratio in the coming years as For instance, the large increase
dency. A peak of 42.6 occurred in the baby boomers begin to enter in the youth ratio associated with
1995, which was much smaller than the older ages. By 2030, when all the birth of the baby boomers also
that observed during the height of of the baby boomers will be 65 or appears in the line for the total
the baby boom. Even though the older, the old-age dependency ratio dependency ratio, as does the
birth cohorts from the echo boom is projected to reach almost 35, an subsequent decline that occurs as
were nearly as large as those of increase of 14 older residents for the baby boom cohort transitions
the original baby boom, the larger every 100 working-age adults. In into the working ages. Similarly, the
working-age population at this time 2035, the difference between old- increase in the old-age dependency
(composed of baby boomers) meant age dependency and youth depen- ratio that occurs as the baby boom
that there were more working-age dency will be less than 2. Old-age population transitions out of the
adults to support the dependent dependency is projected to surpass working-age population and into
youth population. Between 1996 youth dependency in 2056 and is the older ages also appears in the
and 2011, the youth dependency total dependency ratio.
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2060
Note: Total dependency = ((Population under 18 + Population aged 65 and over) / (Population aged 18 to 64)) * 100.
Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and over / Population aged 18 to 64) * 100.
Youth dependency = (Population under 18 / Population aged 18 to 64) * 100.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1945 to 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National Projections.
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN origin.5 In 2012, an overwhelming the racial and ethnic composition
majority, 72 percent, of people in of the two populations is expected
The race and ethnic composition of
the baby boom ages were non- to diverge in the years to come, as
the baby boom population reflects
Hispanic White alone, compared the younger population becomes
the composition of the U.S. popu-
with 63 percent of the total popula- increasingly diverse. The percent-
lation during the mid-twentieth
tion. Although little change is pro- age of the total population that is
centurythe years when these
jected for the percentage distribu- non-Hispanic White alone is pro-
cohorts were born. Between 1940
tion of the baby boom population, jected to decrease between 2012
and 1960, just under 90 percent
and 2060, dropping to 55 percent
of the total U.S. population was 5
Since 2000, race and Hispanic origin by 2030 and 43 percent by 2060.
White (Gibson and Jung, 2002). have been collected according to the
Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
Since then, the nations population 1997 guidelines. For further information, Similarly, increasing diversity in
has become increasingly diverse see Revisions to the Standards for the the total population is projected
Classification of Federal Data on Race and
through increases in immigration Ethnicity at <www.whitehouse.gov/omb to produce greater differences
and minority births, resulting in /fedreg_1997standards>. Race and Hispanic between the two populations in the
origin are treated as two separate and distinct
differences between the racial and concepts in the federal statistical system.
percentage Hispanic and, to a lesser
ethnic composition of the baby People in each race group may be either degree, the percentage of the other
Hispanic or non-Hispanic, and people of
boom population and the total race groups over time. For the baby
Hispanic origin may be of any race. This
population of the United States. report contains projections data for each boomers, the percentage Hispanic
of five OMB racial categories: White, Black,
is projected to remain relatively sta-
Table 1 provides the numeric and American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, and
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander. ble, between 10.5 percent in 2012
percentage distribution of both the All sections of the report refer to each of the
and 12.4 in 2060. The percentage
baby boom cohort and the total races alone and use the Two or More Races
category to represent the population report- Hispanic in the total population is
population by race and Hispanic ing more than one race.
projected to increase from 17 per- in 2012, just over one-quarter were of baby boomers within each race
cent in 2012 to 31 percent in 2060. baby boomers, and that number and origin group is projected to
Likewise, the percentage of the was slightly higher at 27.8 percent range from a high of 21.6 in the
baby boomers that are Two or More for the non-Hispanic White alone non-Hispanic White alone popula-
Races is projected to remain stable, population. For the Black alone and tion to a low of 5.4 in the Two or
at just over 1 percent, while in the Asian alone populations, the per- More Races population. The amount
total population, the percentage centage was lower. Just under 22 of change in the percentage of
that is Two or More Races increases percent of the population in each baby boomers projected to occur
from 2.4 percent in 2012 to 6.4 of these groups was part of the between 2012 and 2030 varies by
percent in 2060. baby boom cohort. In 2012, baby race and origin group, with some
boomers composed the smallest groups experiencing a more rapid
An alternate approach to under-
percentage of the Hispanic and Two decline than others. The differential
standing how the racial and ethnic
or More Races populations, with decline observed between groups
composition of the baby boom-
baby boomers accounting for 15 is due, in part, to racial differences
ers will compare with that of the
percent of the Hispanic population in patterns of mortality, with some
overall population in the coming
and 12 percent of the multiple race groups such as Black alone having
years is presented in Table 2. Here,
population. lower life expectancies at birth than
the population within each race and
the other racial groups.
Hispanic-origin group is distributed As the baby boomers grow older
by birth cohort (baby boom versus and their population becomes Changes occurring between
all other birth cohorts) to determine smaller, they are projected to 2012 and 2030 are also the
the percentage of the population account for a smaller percentage product of projected shifts in the
in each race/origin group that was of the population within each of race and ethnic composition of
born between 1946 and 1964. Of these race and Hispanic-origin the U.S. population. The largest
the entire White alone population groups. In 2030, the percentage decrease in the percentage of baby
Notes: Shaded cells represent age groups within the baby boom cohort. Age groups do not precisely align with the birth years of the baby boom. Data for 2012
are population estimates. Values for 2015 through 2060 are population projections.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National Projections.
Table A-2.
Percentage Distribution of the Total Population by Age for the United States:
2012 to 2060
Age 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Total population . . 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Under 5 years . . . . . . . . . . 6.37 6.55 6.53 6.38 6.21 6.09 6.05 6.05 6.03 5.97 5.89
5 to 9 years. . . . . . . . . . . . 6.52 6.35 6.38 6.38 6.26 6.12 6.02 6.00 6.00 5.98 5.92
10 to 14 years. . . . . . . . . . 6.58 6.38 6.17 6.22 6.24 6.15 6.02 5.94 5.92 5.92 5.91
15 to 19 years. . . . . . . . . . 6.80 6.52 6.23 6.05 6.12 6.17 6.10 5.99 5.91 5.89 5.89
20 to 24 years. . . . . . . . . . 7.19 7.03 6.48 6.25 6.12 6.22 6.28 6.22 6.12 6.04 6.02
25 to 29 years. . . . . . . . . . 6.82 6.96 7.00 6.52 6.34 6.24 6.36 6.43 6.38 6.27 6.20
30 to 34 years. . . . . . . . . . 6.66 6.72 6.86 6.93 6.51 6.37 6.30 6.42 6.49 6.44 6.34
35 to 39 years. . . . . . . . . . 6.21 6.31 6.55 6.71 6.81 6.44 6.32 6.26 6.38 6.45 6.40
40 to 44 years. . . . . . . . . . 6.70 6.26 6.10 6.35 6.53 6.66 6.32 6.21 6.17 6.29 6.36
45 to 49 years. . . . . . . . . . 6.91 6.46 5.99 5.86 6.12 6.32 6.47 6.16 6.07 6.02 6.14
50 to 54 years. . . . . . . . . . 7.19 6.93 6.13 5.71 5.60 5.88 6.10 6.26 5.97 5.89 5.85
55 to 59 years. . . . . . . . . . 6.62 6.77 6.51 5.78 5.41 5.34 5.63 5.86 6.03 5.75 5.68
60 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . 5.67 5.93 6.29 6.08 5.43 5.10 5.06 5.36 5.59 5.76 5.51
65 to 69 years. . . . . . . . . . 4.45 4.99 5.41 5.77 5.60 5.03 4.76 4.75 5.04 5.27 5.44
70 to 74 years. . . . . . . . . . 3.19 3.57 4.42 4.81 5.17 5.05 4.57 4.34 4.35 4.64 4.86
75 to 79 years. . . . . . . . . . 2.39 2.52 3.00 3.74 4.11 4.44 4.38 3.99 3.81 3.84 4.11
80 to 84 years. . . . . . . . . . 1.84 1.80 1.94 2.33 2.93 3.25 3.55 3.53 3.24 3.11 3.16
85 to 89 years. . . . . . . . . . 1.20 1.20 1.18 1.29 1.57 2.00 2.25 2.49 2.49 2.31 2.23
90 to 94 years. . . . . . . . . . 0.53 0.58 0.60 0.60 0.67 0.83 1.09 1.25 1.40 1.42 1.34
95 to 99 years. . . . . . . . . . 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.24 0.31 0.42 0.50 0.57 0.59
100 years and over . . . . . . 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.16
Notes: Shaded cells represent age groups within the baby boom cohort. Age groups do not precisely align with the birth years of the baby boom. Data for 2012
are population estimates. Values for 2015 through 2060 are population projections.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National Projections.
Note: Data for 2012 are population estimates. Values for 2013 through 2060 are population projections.
The 2012 National Projections are of the resident population by single year of age 0 to 99 with ages over
100 combined into an open-ended 100+ age group. Although this aggregated age group contains ages that
do not precisely align with the birth years of the baby boom, it is included in the projections of the popula-
tion in the baby boom ages for the years 2046 and beyond.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National Projections.