Global Climate Change-Major Content
Global Climate Change-Major Content
Global Climate Change-Major Content
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Visiting Professor
Faculty of Engineering, Kagawa University, JAPAN
Fellow Academician
Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST)
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Before we begin:
review of last class
1. What are Green house gases:
2. (CO2, H2O, N2O, O3, CH4, CFCs)
3. What are aspects of climate those have not been observed to
change?
4. Tornadoes, Dust-storms, Hail, Lightning, Antarctic sea ice
5. How can we reduce Carbon Emissions?
Burn less fossil fuel: Turn down your thermostat
Plant Trees for shade and CO2 uptake
Insulate your house
Replace old appliances
Use compact fluorescence/led light bulbs
Use renewable energy
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(Materials cited from D. Hartmanns textbook and online materials by Prof. J.-Y.
Yu )
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IPCC -
2001
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Infrared Greenhouse
Effect:
The amount by which
the atmospheric reduces
the longwave emission
from Earth.
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Energy Equation:
T 1
Q C T
t
Climate = Heat + Heat
Forcing Storage Loss
T Q
is a measure of climate sensitivity;
Kelvin per Wm-2 of climate forcing
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T 1
Q C T
t
Climate Forcing = Q (Wm-2)
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Top-Down Approach:
Determine sensitivity of climate
from observed record over past
130 years. Use simple model
to extrapolate into future.
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IPCC -2001
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Bottom-up approach
Understand and model key
physical processes that affect
climate sensitivity.
i.e. Feedback Processes
Ice-albedo feedback
Many more
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input Q
Qfinal
Tfinal
Qfinal = Q + Qfeedback
Qfeedback can be either negative or positive
Tfinal = T + Tsensitivity
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Stefan-Boltzmann feedback
F = T4
= 5.67x10-8
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20
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0
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Temperature (C)
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Ice-Albedo Feedback
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In ice-covered regions,
more solar energy
reflected back to space:
Feedback strength:
ice= 0.6 Wm-2K-1
1. Positive feedback,
unstable
2. BB + v + ice=1.45 Wm-2K-1
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Total feedback
total
3.75 Wm-2K-1
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+15%
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Cloud feedback
1. It is unclear what is the strength and even
directions (negative or positive). From GCM
simulations, cloud = 0 0.8.
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(1-) S0 /4 = Te4
shortwave in = Longwave out
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S(x) = the mean annual radiation incident at latitude (x) = S0/4 *s(x)
(x) = the albedo at latitude (x)
for ice-free (Ts > 10C) : 0.3
for ice (Ts < 10C) : 0.62
C = the transport coefficient (3.81 W m-2 C-1)
T(x) = the surface temperature at latitude (x)
Tm = the mean global surface temperature
A and B are constants A = 204.0 W m-2 and B = 2.17 W m-2 K-1
This B is equivalent to BB (3.75) or BB + v = 2.05 (see Fig. 9.1)
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Daisyworld is a world
filled with two different
types of daisies: black
daisies and white
daisies. They differ in
albedo, which is how
much energy they
absorb as heat from
sunlight. White daisies
have a high surface
albedo and thus reflect
light and heat, thus
cooling the area around
them.
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Te4 = S0 (1 p) /4
Local temperature:
Ti4 = S0 (1 i) /4
Ti4 = (p i) + Te4
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A Daisyworld model
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Albedo
Increase in albedo
SW radiation
absorbed decreases
Rn decreases
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Decrease in soil
moisture
LE decreases
H Increases
Ts Increases
Rn decreases
Decrease in soil
moisture Increase in
Reduction in: Rn
Cloudness Increase
Precipitation in
convergence insolation
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Climate System
Atmosphere 10 days
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Summary
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Summary
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Class Work
At an international conference on global climate
change British scientists presented the following theory:
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Forced component
Fat: best fit to paleo
Thin: 5-95% range
*: significant
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Consensus
Observations show overall
increase, too
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Wettest day/yr
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consensus
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CO2 1.66
CH4(methane) 0.48
Halocarbons 0.34
Total 2.64
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Bright streaks
are areas of
enhanced albedo
Cause: Emissions
from ships
Streaks called
ship tracks
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Ship exhaust
contains
aerosols
The aerosols
cause more
droplets to
form
Cloud albedo
is increased
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Solar Irradiance
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Final understanding
The inclusion or exclusion of a feedback mechanism could
dramatically alter the climate modeling results.
Uncertainties in projections of global warming are closely related to
uncertainties in climate sensitivity to external forcing.
Increased efforts to understand the underlying physical processes
behind the key climate feedback processes are needed, and
many are underway.
Some important feedbacks may have not been included in GCMs.
Global climate models are getting more complex as more feedback
mechanisms are included.
Analyses on climate feedbacks and sensitivity can help
1) understand the mechanisms of climate change.
2) select important processes and limit the complexity of climate
models.
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Understanding
Significant climate change observed
Uncertainty in distinction between forcings,
but:
Most of the recent (last 50 yrs) global
warming is likely due to greenhouse gases
Significant and consistent climate signals in
long temperature records
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International Conventions
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
The United States is a party to the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and participates in ongoing negotiations
under the UNFCCC. The United States signed the treaty in June
1992 and ratified it in October of that same year, becoming the first
industrialized country and the fourth nation overall to do so. Under
the Convention, U.S. funding supports technology transfer, capacity
building, and adaptation programs in developing countries.
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International Conventions
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Many-country (Multilateral)
Partnerships and Activities
The United States is engaged in a number of
multilateral activities that promote clean and
efficient technologies and the sharing of critical
scientific information among a wide range of
government, private sector, academic, and other
interested stakeholders.
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Many-country (Multilateral)
Partnerships and Activities
Global Data Center Energy Efficiency Task
Force
Global Methane Initiative
Group on Earth Observations
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Next class
Theories of Sustainability Science
Resource and Environmental Governance
Home work:
1. Prepare for a test on Friday - 1.5 hour test.
Best of luck!
7th Lecture
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