USA Mathematical Talent Search

Solutions to Problem 2/3/17

www.usamts.org

2/3/17. Anna writes a sequence of integers starting with the number 12. Each subsequent
integer she writes is chosen randomly with equal chance from among the positive divisors of
the previous integer (including the possibility of the integer itself). She keeps writing integers
until she writes the integer 1 for the first time, and then she stops. One such sequence is

12, 6, 6, 3, 3, 3, 1.

What is the expected value of the number of terms in Annas sequence?

Credit This problem was proposed by Mathew Crawford.

Create PDF with GO2PDF for free, if you wish to remove this line, click here to buy Virtual PDF Printer

Comments This problem is similar to problem 2/1/17, in which we also calculated an

expected value using a recursive formula. Solutions edited by Naoki Sato.

Solution 1 by: Garrett Marcotte (12/CA)

Let (an ) be a sequence such as described in the problem, and let E(a1 ) be the expected
number of terms of (an ). To calculate E(a1 ), suppose that d1 , d2 , . . . , dk are the positive
divisors of a1 , with dk = a1 . Then there is a k1 probability that any given divisor di is chosen
as a2 . Thus, based on the method of generating the sequence, we can calculate E(a1 ) as
follows:
1 1 1
[E(d1 ) + 1] + [E(d2 ) + 1] + + [E(dk ) + 1]
E(a1 ) =
k k k
1 1
= [k + E(d1 ) + E(d2 ) + + E(dk1 )] + E(dk )
k k
k1 1
E(a1 ) = [k + E(d1 ) + E(d2 ) + + E(dk1 )]
k k
1
E(a1 ) = [k + E(d1 ) + E(d2 ) + + E(dk1 )].
k1

Now we apply this result to find E(12). By the definition of the sequence, E(1) = 1. The
numbers 2 and 3 have the same number of divisors, namely 2, so
1
E(2) = E(3) = [2 + E(1)] = 3.
1
The number 4 has three divisors, namely 1, 2, and 4, so
1 7
E(4) = [3 + E(1) + E(2)] = .
2 2
The number 6 has four divisors, namely 1, 2, 3, and 6, so
1 11
E(6) = [4 + E(1) + E(2) + E(3)] = .
3 3
 USA Mathematical Talent Search
Solutions to Problem 2/3/17
www.usamts.org

Finall, the number 12 has six divisors, namely 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 12, so

1
E(12) = [6 + E(1) + E(2) + E(3) + E(4) + E(6)]
5 
1 7 11
= 6+1+3+3+ +
5 2 3
121
= .
30

Solution 2 by: Gaku Liu (10/FL)

Create PDF with GO2PDF for free, if you wish to remove this line, click here to buy Virtual PDF Printer

We will count the expected value of the number of each of the integers 12, 6, 4, 3, 2, and
1 in the sequence separately. (Note: We will use the term decomposition to denote a term
changing from one integer to a different one.)
The integer 12 always appears as the first term of the sequence. The next integer has an
equal chance of being any one of 12s six divisors, so a second 12 will appear an expected 16
times. Then, a third 12 will appear an expected ( 61 )2 times, etc., so the expected value of
the number of 12s is  2
1 1 6
1+ + + = .
6 6 5
The integer 6 can only decompose from the integer 12. 12 has an equal chance of decom-
posing into any of its five proper divisors, so 6 has a 51 chance of appearing in the sequence.
6 has four divisors, so the expected value of the number of 6s is
"  2 #
1 1 1 1 4 4
1+ + + = = .
5 4 4 5 3 15

The integer 4 can only decompose from the integer 12, so it has a 15 chance of appearing
in the sequence. 4 has three divisors, so the expected value of the number of 4s is
"  2 #
1 1 1 1 3 3
1+ + + = = .
5 3 3 5 2 10

The integer 3 can decompose from either 12 or 6. It has a 15 chance of decomposing from
12. 6 has a 15 chance of appearing in the sequence, and has three proper divisors it can
decompose into, so there is a 15 31 = 15
1
chance the integer 3 will decompose from 6. Hence,
1 1 4
there is a 5 + 15 = 15 chance 3 will appear in the sequence. The integer 3 has two divisors,
so the expected value of the number of 3s is
"  2 #
4 1 1 4 8
1+ + + = 2= .
15 2 2 15 15
 USA Mathematical Talent Search
Solutions to Problem 2/3/17
www.usamts.org

The integer 2 can decompose from either 12, 6, or 4. It has a 51 chance of decomposing
from 12, a 51 13 = 15
1
chance of decomposing from 6, and a 15 12 = 10
1
chance of decomposing
from 4. Hence, 2 has a 15 + 15 1 1
+ 10 11
= 30 chance of appearing in the sequence. The integer 2
has two divisors, so the expected value of the number of 2s is
"  2 #
11 1 1 11 11
1+ + + = 2= .
30 2 2 30 15

The integer 1 will always appear exactly 1 time. Hence, the expected value of the total
number of terms is
Create PDF with GO2PDF for free, if you wish to remove this line, click here to buy Virtual PDF Printer
6 4 3 8 11 121
+ + + + +1= .
5 15 10 15 15 30