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PROJECTSUCCESSANDFAILURE:
WHATISSUCCESS,WHATISFAILURE,ANDHOWCANYOUIMPROVEYOUR
ODDSFORSUCCESS?

RobertFrese
SystemsAnalysis
Dr.VickiSauter
UMSt.Louis
December16,2003

Weknowwhyprojectsfail,weknowhowtopreventtheirfailuresowhydotheystill

fail?(2)ThisstatementcouldbeappliedtotherecentSpaceShuttledisaster,orthe2003
collapseofalargeportionoftheU.S.electricalgrid.Buttheauthorwastalkingabout

InformationTechnologyandInformationSystemprojectfailures,astheyexistedin1994.

InformationTechnologyandInformationSystemfailureshavebeenthetopicofmanyarticles,

conferences,symposiums,studies,andresearchinitiatives.TheliteratureoftheITandIS

communityisrifewitharticlesandcommentaryaboutprojectfailures.Butjusthowbadisthe
situation?Doalargepercentofprojectsreallyfailordoweonlyhearthebadnews?Whatis

failureandwhatissuccess?Andlastly,whatcanyoudotoimproveyoursuccessquotient?

Letsstartbylookingatprojectfailureratesandwhyprojectsfail.

Therearemanywriterswhotelluswhyprojectsfail.Forinstance,Field(12)tellsusthat

projectsfailtoooftenbecausetheprojectscopewasnotfullyappreciatedand/oruserneeds

notfullyunderstood.Hulme(13)tellsusthatMISprojectsandassociatedprocurementstake

placeinanenvironmentcharacterizedbythefollowing:Lackofmanagementcontinuityandan

incentivesystemthatencouragesoverlyoptimisticestimatesofthebenefitsthatcanbeattained
fromdoingtheproject.AndLeicht(5)tellsusthathighuserexpectationscanactuallybethe

causeofprojectfailure.Hoffman(15)tellsthatprojectsfailbecauseofpooralignmentbetween

ITdepartmentsandbusinessusers.AndinanotherarticleHoffman(9)tellsusthatproject

managerstoooftenactasprocesscopsandreportcompilersandloosesightofwhattheyre

supposedtobedoingtomakesureprojectsarerunningeffectively.Hodgson(23)

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style='msobidifontweight:normal'tellsusthatprojectsfailthatsthefactoflife.Toomany

failbecausetheaverageprojectislikeaniceberg9/10thsofitlayhiddenfromview.Allof

thesewritersarecorrect.Butnoneoftheseauthorsarereportingsystematicresearchofthe

mechanismsthatcauseprojectsuccessorfailure.Andnoneofthemprovideinsightintothe

rateofprojectfailures.

HowOftenDoProjectsFailandHowCanThisbeMeasured?
Ina2003articleJuliaKing(10)reports,Atcompaniesthatarentamongthetop25%of

technologyusers,threeoutof10ITprojectsfailonaverage.Translation:forthesecompanies

anamazing30%ofITprojectsfail.Nowifyouareanextremelyoptimisticpersonyoumight

concludethegoodnewsisthat70%oftheseprojectssucceed.ButnotethatKingdoesnottell

ushowmanyofthe70%ofthesuccessfulprojectswereoverbudget,overtime,ordefectivein

functionuponcompletion.Therearemanywaystomeasuresuccessandfailure,butthereisno

strictdividinglinebetweenthetwo.Baker(20)concludes,Likeeverythingelse,thedefinitionof

projectfailureisinastateofflux.AndOBrochta(18)tellsusthatthebigproblemwith

assessingprojectsuccessisthatitisnotprecise.OBrochtacontinues,Thisdynamiccan

oftenbetheAchilleshealforaproject.Withoutadependableunderstandingofwhatconstitutes

success,theprojectisplacedintheuntenablepositionofbeingjudgedagainstdifferingcriteria,

andinvariablybecomesonemorefailurestatisticreportedbyresearchfirmssuchasStandish,

Gartner,Forrester,andothers.

Andso,Lewis(7)tellsusthatOnaverage,about70%ofallITrelatedprojectsfailto

meettheirobjectives.InthiscaseLewisincludesnotonlyprojectsthatwereabandoned

(failed),butalsothosethatweredefectivelycompletedduetocostoverruns,timeoverruns,or

didnotprovideallofthefunctionalitythatwasoriginallypromised.Amazingly,Lewisdoesnot

considerthis70%failuretomeetobjectivesaseriousissue,andcomparesittothebatting

averageofamajorleagueplayer.Lewiscontendsmajorleaguecoachesarehappywitha30%

atbatsuccessrateforaplayer,andLewisthinksthesamestandardshouldapplytoIT

projects.ThereseemstobeonlyoneproblemwithLewisoutlook,andthatisthatthecustomer,

thebillpayer,maynotsharethissentiment.

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Thereareotherreportsofprojectfailurerates.A1997seminarpaper(3)statesthatIn
1992theUnitesStatesGeneralAccountingOffice(GAO)reviewedManagementInformation

Systems(MIS)projectsandconcluded:Developingandmodernizinggovernmentinformation

systemsisadifficultandcomplexprocess.Againandagain,projectshaverunintoserious

trouble,despitehardworkbydedicatedstaff.Theyaredevelopedlate,failtoworkasplanned,

andcostmillionsevenhundredsofmillionsmorethanexpected.Inthesamearticleweare

toldthatresearchbytheStandishGroupindicatesonly16.1percentofallMISprojectsare

completedontimeandwithinbudget.Translation:83.9percentofprojectsfaileithertosome

extentorfailcompletely.Sothisleadstoseveralquestions.Regardlessofmeasurement

semantics,whydoprojectsfail?Isthereonecauseoraretheremanycauses?Iftheoverall

failurerateisgoingtoremainhigh,thenhowcanyou,thereader,becometheexceptiontothis

ruleoffailureandachieveamuchhighersuccessrateforyourprojects?Yourcareermaywell

dependonit.

LetslookattheStandishGroupsCHAOSReport(1)andseewhatithastosay.Forthe

StandishGroupnotonlypublishedfailureandsuccessrates,butalsopointedtoindicatorsfor

successandfailure.Theiroriginalreportwasdonein1994andpublishedasTHECHAOS

Report.TheStandishGroupstudied365companieswithatotalof8,380InformationSystem

applicationsunderdevelopment.Theresultantreportdividesprojectsintothreedistinct

outcomeswhichtheycalledResolutions.

ResolutionType1isaProjectSuccessitcompletedontimeandbudget,withallfeatures

andfunctionsasspecified.Only16.2%ofprojectsfellinthiscategory.

ResolutionType2isProjectChallenged.Thesewerecompleted,butwereovercost,over
time,and/orlackingallofthefeaturesandfunctionsthatwereoriginallyspecified.52.7%ofall

studiedprojectsfellintothisResolutionType2(Challenged)category.

ResolutionType3istermedProjectImpaired/Failed.Theseprojectswereabandonedor

cancelledatsomepointandthusbecametotallosses.Adisturbing31.1%ofallstudiedprojects
fellintothiscategory.

ForthepurposesofthispaperwewillusetheabovethreeStandishGroupmeasuresof
projectoutcome:Asuccessfulprojectmustbeontime,onbudget,anddeliverquality(features

andfunctions)aspromised.Anythinglesswillbeeitherafailedprojectorachallengedproject.

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ThedisturbingconclusionfromthisStandishreportisthatonly16.2%ofprojectswere
successfulbyallmeasures,andthatofthe70%ofprojectsthatwerenotsuccessful,Over52

percentwerepartialfailuresand31%werecompletefailures.Thisshouldcertainlygiveproject
managersbothfoodforthoughtandmotivationtoaction.

Sonowthatwehaveinformationaboutprojectsuccessandfailurerates,arethereany
significantdifferentiatorsfoundbetweensuccessfulandfailedprojects?Accordingtothe1994

StandishCHAOSReport,thereare.
Thetop5factorsfoundinsuccessfulprojectsare:

1.UserInvolvement
2.ExecutiveManagementSupport

3.ClearStatementofRequirements
4.ProperPlanning

5.RealisticExpectations
Thesearethetop5of10listedinthereport.Thereportconcludesthatthesewerethe

elementsthatweremostoftenpointedtoasmajorcontributorstoprojectsuccess.Willthese
elementsaloneguaranteesuccess?Never.Butifthesearedonewell,aproject,accordingto

theStandishGroup,willhaveamuchhigherprobabilityofsuccess.
ThenextcategoryofdifferentiatorsfromtheStandishreportdealswithprojectsthat

provedtobeChallengedthatistheywerecompletedbuywereoverbudget,overtime,ordid
notcontainallfunctionsandfeaturesoriginallyrequired.
Thetop5indicatorsfoundinChallengedprojectsare:

1.LackofUserInput
2.IncompleteRequirements&Specifications

3.ChangingRequirements&Specifications
4.LackofExecutiveSupport

5.TechnicalIncompetence
AndfinallyalistofallthetopfactorsfoundinFailedprojects

1.IncompleteRequirements
2.Lackofuserinvolvement

3.LackofResources

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4.UnrealisticExpectations

5.LaceofExecutiveSupport
6.ChangingRequirements&Specifications

7.LackofPlanning
8.DidntNeeditAnyLonger

9.LackofITmanagement
10.TechnicalIlliteracy
Noticeintheabovethreeprojectoutcomes,userinvolvementislistedasthefirstor

seconditemineach.

ANOTHERPERSPECTIVETOSUCCESSANDFAILURE:
Theresultsofaresearchpaper(6),presentedata1991PMIsymposium,foundthat

thereareareasthatshouldbeemphasizedbyprojectmanagerswhoarecommittedtothe
successoftheirprojects.TheresearchmethodusedContentAnalysisofshowcasearticles
featuredinpmNETworkandProjectManagementJournal.Theresearchersstudied24areasof

projectmanagementandfoundthat3ofthe24,ifdonewell,clearlyindicatedthataprojecthad
ahighprobabilityofsuccess.Thepaperstatesitmaybeinferredthatthesethreevariables

(GoodPlanning,ClearResponsibilityandAccountability,andScheduleControl)inparticular
havethegreatestimpactontheperformanceoftheproject.Donot,however,concludethatall

oftheotherareaswerethennotimportanttoprojectsuccess.Thepaperalsotellsusthedata
suggeststhatmanydifferentvariablesareneededtoaccomplishasuccessfulproject.Letslook

atthethreekeyareasthat,ifdonewell,pointtoasuccessfulprojectcompletion.
GoodPlanning

Thefirstindicator,GoodPlanning,requiresexcellentforwardplanning,whichincludes
detailedplanningoftheprocessimplementationstages,tasktimeliness,fallbackpositions,and

replanning.Noticethatinitialplanningisnotenough.Projectsoftentakewrongturns,orinitial
solutionsproveunfounded.Theprojectmanagerwhodoesnotpreparetoreplan,orhasnot

consideredandplannedfallbackpositionswheninitialplansfail,willoftenfindthattheproject
firststalls,andthenfails.Wemustrememberthatprojectmanagementisnotastraightline

process,butaniterativeprocessthatrequiresagilerethinkingastheknownenvironment
changesbeforeyoureyes.

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ClearResponsibilityandAccountabilityofTeamMembers

Thisrequiresthatallteammembershaveaclearunderstandingoftheirrolesandduties
intheproject.Theymustunderstandhowexpectationsvs.achievementswillbemeasuredand

graded.Itislefttotheprojectmanagertoproperlyimplementthecommunicationofthese
responsibilities,toprovidefeedback,andtoassureallunderstandthatforwhichtheywillbeheld

accountable.
ScheduleControl

Thisrequiresthecontinualmonitoringandmeasurementoftime,milestones,people,and
equipmentschedules.Properlydoneschedulecontrolwillalsogivethefirsthintthatinitial

planningmaynotbegoingaccordingtoschedule.Ifyoupickuponthesehints,youhavean
opportunitytoimplementafallbackpositionand/orreplantogetbackontrack.

Thesamepaperfindstwoattributesthatappearedequallyforprojectsthatsucceededor
failed.Thesetwowere:UseofConsultants,andWellQualifiedPersonnel.Equalnumbersof

successfulandfailedprojectsusedconsultants,andthesamewastrueforwellqualified
personnel.Itisperhapsdisappointingthatthesetwoattributesdidnotportendprojectsuccess.
Obviouslytherearemanyothervariablesthatholdgreatweightindeterminingtheultimate

outcomeofanITproject.
Lastlythissamestudylistedfourthingsthatforeshadowedafailedproject.Therewere:
LackofEfficientInternalCommunicationLinks,LackofEfficientExternalCommunicationLinks,

LackofResponsiveDecisionMaking,andLackofEffectiveTeamwork.Theseappearedmost
frequentlyinanegativecontextinfailedprojects.
Soatthispointwehaveseverallistsofthingsthatmightindicateprojectsuccessand
othersthatmightindicateprojectfailure.Butthereisonethingprimarilythatyoumust

recognizeinalloftheselists.Therearenostockanswers,andthereisnoonelistthatwill
guaranteesuccess.ITandISprojectsarecomplexbynature,andeachisunique.Itisvery
difficulttoplanwithcompletecertaintysomethingthathasneverbeforebeendone.Every
singlefactorinalloftheselistsisimportantandmustbeconsideredforeachproject.Themost

difficultpartmaybeprioritizingthefactors.Whicharemostimportant?Whichmustbedone
first?Hopefullythelistswillhelpyouanswerthesequestions.Butineachcaseyoumust
ultimatelymakethedecisionsbasedupontheuniquecircumstancesofyourimmediateproject.

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COMMUNICATION
B.Elenbaas(17)tellsusthatprojectsareaboutcommunication,communication,
communication.In1973Iwasspeakingwithagentlemanwhohadrecentlyretiredfrom
MonsantoChemicalCompany.HiscareerwithMonsantobeganbackin1933.Aswespoke,
thesubjectofcommunicationenteredourconversationandthisfinegentlemanrelatedthe

followingstory:In1933whenIwasbrandnewtoMonsanto,mybosstoldmethatthebiggest
problematMonsantowas(thelackof)communication.And40yearslaterwhenIretired,the
biggestproblematMonsantowasstillthelackofcommunication.Thisgentlemanemphasized
thefactthatalackofcommunicationisverycostlytoacompany.Sure,acompanymaystill
succeed,butwithoutgoodinternalandexternalcommunicationIsubmitthatthecostofsuccess

willbemuchhigherthannecessary.Anotherconsequenceisthatsuccessoftentakesmuch
longerthannecessarytoachieve.Sometimessuccessneverarrives.
Lackofgoodcommunicationcaneasilyturnsacorporatestrategy,oranISproject,intoa
moderndayTowelofBabel.Lavine(8)tellsusthatThewarringfactionsinAfricahaveabetter

chanceofcommunicatingwitheachotherthanmanyoftheuserandtechnologygroupsthat
worktogetherintodaysprojectdevelopmentenvironment.Lavinealsorelatesthatsome
yearsagohewashiredasadeveloperforalargebondprocessingbank.Hewastoldonhis
thirddaythatthedevelopmentteamwasnolongerallowedtospeaktoanyonefromthe

businesscommunity.Itseemsthatrelationsbetweenthetwogroupshadbecomesobadthat
communicationhadcometoacompletehalt.Infact,negotiationshadbeguninanattemptto
findanacceptableliaisontoworkbetweenthetwogroups.Thismayseemlikeanextreme
example,butthishappensinprojects.Sometimesitifovert,butalltoooftenitisonasubtle

level.Subtledysfunctionisprobablyhardertocorrectbecauseitismoredifficulttopinpoint.
Youknowsomethingiswrong,butitsdifficulttotellexactlywhatitisortopinpointtheroot
causeoftheproblem.Thisoftenmakestheproblemintractable.
Kirksey(3)tellsusthatonepredictorofprojectsuccessiswhencommunicationsarekept

honestandopenbetweencustomerandvendor.Hismajorindicatorofprojectfailureinthis
areaiswhenanISprojectmanagerfailstocorrectlyreadwarningsignsthatcommunicationis
breakingdown.Theresultisamissedopportunitytocorrectthesituationbeforeitbecomestoo
late.

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Wixom(4)arguesthatUserParticipationandTeamSkillsaretwoofsevenimperative

implementationfactorsthatdetermineprojectsuccessorfailure,andthatthesetwoare
essentiallycommunicationskills.UserParticipationoccurswhenusersareassignedproject
rolesandtasks,whichleadtoabettercommunicationoftheirneeds,andhelpensurethatthe
systemisimplementedsuccessfully.ThisiswhatWixom(4)hastosayaboutTeamSkills:

Peopleareimportantwhenimplementingasystemandcandirectlyaffectitssuccessorfailure.
Teamskillsincludebothtechnicalandinterpersonalabilities.Theseinterpersonalabilities
include,withoutexception,interpersonalcommunicationskills.Whodoyouknowthat
communicateseffectively?Watchthemanddeterminewhytheircommunicationiseffective.
Alsowatchthosewhodopoorlyatcommunicating,andmakeeveryefforttoavoidtheirbad

habits.Thereisonelastpointthatinvolvescommunicationandhowitmustbeusedtoputuser
expectationsintoperspective.Hayes(11)providesadditionalinsightbynoting,executives
expectsaleseffortsandproductdevelopmenteffortstofail,butnotITprojects.Healsotellsus
thatwemustconvincemanagersthatsystemdevelopmenttodayisagamble,butonethemay

haveabigpayoff.Hayestellsusthatwemustmarketoureffortsandmanageuser
expectations.Iftheuserunderstandsthatthereisrisk,thenyoullhaveabetterchanceof
deliveringwhattheusersexpect.Andifyouwantpsychologicalinsigitsintopeopleand
projects,reviewWastell's(16)insightintolearningdysfunctionanditsassociationwithproject

successorfailure.

AVOIDATALLCOST
Hereareafewthingsthatshouldneverhappentoyoubutprobablywillatonepointoranother.
IfyoueverhearyourselftellaclientNo,yourewrong,thatwasneverpartofthescope!Its

clearlyascopeexpansion!(21),thenyouhaveviolatedoneofthecardinalrulesabout
controllingscopeexpansion.Ifyoufindyourselftalkingmorethanlistening,thenstop
talking(22)becausetheoutcomeofhavingyourviewprevailmaynotultimatelybewise.Two
orthreeheadsareoftenbetterthanone,solistentotheothersyoumightlearnsomething.If

aprojectmanagerwantstofail,operateinavacuum(24).Operatinginavacuum,intentionally
ornot,isasurewaytomakesurecommunicationdiesonyourproject.Andlastlythereisthis
favoritequote,TheLoneRangerhadTonto,YogiBearhadBooBoo,sowhydosomePMsrun

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withoutadequatehelp?(25)Thinkaboutthisnexttimeyoudontwanttosharetheload,
perhapsbecausenoonecandoitbetterthanyou.

JIANGSLIST
OneconciseliteraturestudybyJiang,etal(19)producedalistof13successfactors.
JiangsconclusionattheendofthisstudywasthattheliteraturesuggeststhatISusersandIS

professionalsareremarkablyidenticalintheirimportancerankingsofsuccessfactors.The
similarityextendstocomparisonsacrossexperiencelevelandgender.Thesimilarityacross
thesedemographicconsiderationsallowsaconfidenceintherankingsobtained.These
rankingscanthusbeusedasguidanceinestablishingpoliciesandprocedures.Hereisthelist
thatIwillcallJiangs13.

1.Clearlydefinedgoals(includingthegeneralprojectphilosophyorgeneralmissionofthe
project,aswellascommitmenttothosegoalsonthepartoftheteammembers).
2.Competentprojectmanager.Theimportanceofinitialselectionofskilled
(interpersonally,technically,andadministratively)projectleader.

3.TopManagementSupport.Topordivisionalmanagementsupportfortheprojectthat
hasbeenconveyedtoallconcernedparties.
4.Competentprojectteammembers.Theimportanceofselectingand,ifnecessary,
triagingprojectteammembers.

5.Sufficientresourceallocation.TheseareResourcesintheformofmoney,personnel,
logistics,etc.
6.Adequatecommunicationchannels.Sufficientinformationisavailableontheproject
objectives,status,changes,organizationalcoordination,clientsneeds,etc.

7.ControlMechanisms.(Includingplanning,schedules,etc.).Programsareinplaceto
dealwithinitialplansandschedules.
8.Feedbackcapabilities.Allpartiesconcernedwiththeprojectareaabletoreviewproject
status,makesuggestions,andcorrectionsthroughformalfeedbackchannelsorreview

meetings.
9.Responsivenesstoclient.Allpotentialusersoftheprojectareconsultedwithandkept
uptodateonprojectstatus.Further,clientsreceiveassistanceaftertheprojecthasbeen

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successfullyimplemented.
10.Clientconsultation.Theprojectteammemberssharesolicitedinputfromallpotential
clientsoftheproject.Theprojectteammembersunderstandtheneedsofthosewhowill
usethesystems.
11.Technicaltasks.Thetechnologythatisbeingimplementedworkswell.Experts,

consultants,orotherexperiencedprojectmanagersoutsidetheprojectteamhave
reviewedandcritiquedthebasicapproach.
12.ClientAcceptance.Potentialclientshavebeencontactedabouttheusefulnessofthe
project.Adequateadvancedpreparationhasbeendonetobestdeterminehowtosellthe

projecttotheclients.
13.Troubleshooting.Projectteammembersspendapartofeachdaylookingforproblems
thathavesurfacedorareabouttosurface.Projectteammembersareencouragedto
takequickactiononproblemsontheirowninitiative.

TheFutureisGettingBrighterEveryDay
Whatdoesthefuturehold?AccordingtoJohnson(14)thesuccessrateforprojectshas

actuallyincreasedsincetheoriginalStandishCHAOSreport.Johnsonattributesthisincreased
successratetomoreprojectpeopleusingtheStandishRecipeforSuccessthatwas
establishedin1998.Johnsontellsusthattheoverallprojectsuccessratehasincreasedfrom
16%in1994to28%in2000.Whatthenarethetop5factorsthathavecausedthissignificant

increase?AccordingtoJohnsonsreportthetop5are:
1)ExecutiveSupport:ThisisnowtheNo.1factorinprojectfailure.Lackofexecutivesupport
cananddoesjeopardizeprojects.PositiveExecutivesupportpositivelyinfluencesproject
outcome.

2)UserInvolvement:LackofuserinvolvementtraditionallyhasbeentheNo.1reasonfor
projectfailures.AlthoughitisnowNo.2,itsimportancehasnotdecreased.Johnsonfeelsthat
projectprofessionalsbetterhandleandsolvethismajorproblem.
3)ExperiencedProjectManager:Johnsonreportsthatninetysevenpercentofsuccessful

projectshaveanexperiencedprojectmanageratthehelm.
4)ClearBusinessObjectives:Bettercontrolofobjectivesisattributedtoexperiencedproject
managers.

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5)MinimizedScope:Donotallowyourscopetogrow.Johnsonclaimsthatminimizedscope
hasreplacedsmallmilestones.

Conclusion
Therearemanythingsthatleadtoprojectsuccessandmanythatleadtofailure.Jiangslistof13

isagoodlisttouseasastartingpointforyourprojects.Butlikeanyofthelists,itisnotenoughin
andofitself.Goodprojectmanagementisaprocessofcontinuousimprovement.Itisaprocessof
makingmistakesandlearningfromthosemistakes.Itisaprocessofcontinuousstudyand
learning.Forthosewhocannotdevotethemselvestothisneverendingprocess,therewillbefew

successes.

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